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If The Property Price Falls Then I’m B—–ed

A report from Mansion Global. “2022 marked the end of a long and prosperous run in San Francisco’s luxury housing market. Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst in the San Francisco Bay Area at Compass: it’s ‘an excellent time for buyers to aggressively negotiate home purchases at prices well below those of recent years.’ That’s especially true in the luxury and ultra-luxury condo markets located in the city’s downtown/high-tech district, an enclave hit harder than any place in the city, according to Mr. Carlisle. ‘There are deals to be made here for buyers with a longer term view,’ he said. ‘The old maxim says that the best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets.'”

“Halfway through 2022, change came to the Los Angeles property market. It ‘shifted away from the unsustainable pace of the last two-and-a-half years,’ said Mauricio Umansky, CEO of The Agency. ‘Volume dropped while the industry’s cyclical nature and historical seasonality quickly returned. What felt like a jolt was actually what I believe was the beginning of a rebalancing act.'”

From Gothamist. “When will Midtown and Lower Manhattan, long the beating heart of the nation’s largest commercial business district, fully win back office workers? Or is this the new normal? How the government responds could determine if New York City enters what some academics describe as an ‘urban doom loop’ – a cycle of decline tied to tax revenue losses and spending cuts. ‘The worry is that the enormous decline in people coming to the office may soon create a big shortfall in property tax revenue,’ said Jonathan Bowles, the executive director of Center for an Urban Future, ‘and that this will necessitate spending cuts in the very things that make New York so appealing, from the transit system and culture to sanitation and safety. And if that happens, that’s not good news for New York.'”

“City Comptroller Brad Lander noted a surge of residents in the city’s homeless shelters occurred in part because ‘a set of people walked across the continent to escape desperation, war and poverty,’ and that many of them headed to the five boroughs. He refers to an influx of asylum-seekers, mostly people who crossed the southern border and rode buses to New York. ‘Maybe the kids of those Google engineers and the kids of those asylum-seekers from Venezuela will wind up in the same pre-K class, in a Manhattan public school,’ said Lander. ‘And that’s the future of New York.'”

The Real Deal on Florida. “A lender seeking to recoup $6.3 million in mortgage debt has initiated a UCC foreclosure sale for the distressed Banyan Cay Resort & Golf Club. Banyan Cay Resort Fund has set a Feb. 17 auction for the West Palm Beach hotel and adjacent development sites, according to a notice of sale. The winning bidder stands to gain control of the unopened 150-room luxury hotel at 2020 Banyan Way, an adjoining 18-hole golf course designed by Jack Nicklaus and surrounding lots where the developers planned a high-rise condominium, 33 single-family homes and 20 villas. Project partners Domenic Gatto Sr., Domenic Gatto Jr., Kim Pilar and their development entity Banyan Cay Resort & Golf, are also trying to stave off a separate foreclosure lawsuit in Palm Beach County Circuit Court filed by another lender. In 2015, the partners paid $26 million for the property formerly known as The President Country Club.”

Hawaii Real Estate Dreams. “Kona sales are still dropping, houses, condos and land combined only closed 51 sales last month. Was inventory a factor? November 2021 saw only 55 houses/condos for sale, this November we had 150 combined… hmm. Way more choice, so that just leaves us inflation and interest rates which are kissing cousins so to speak, since one typically affects the other, as the reason for the dramatic slowdown. To recap, house sales slowed first, they are now down $150,000 from the top of their range in my opinion. Residential condos restricted from vacation renting slowed a few months after houses. Sales for vacation rental condos kept going, but have recently slowed dramatically and prices are dropping there now. You won’t see this clearly in the solds for another few months.”

“And even though the last two years have been great I think there are turbulent times ahead. With interest rates and inflation high, and sales stalling, I think it is just a matter of time for a big market shift. So like the pilot says on the plane ‘Fasten your seat belt, there could be turbulence ahead!”

The Argus Observer. “Home sales in the Western Treasure Valley are seeing a cool-off of sorts following a peak in June, according to Real Estate Broker Jeff Williams of Coldwell Banker – Classic Properties in Payette. ‘It is my opinion, that our local market [Malheur County in Oregon and Payette & Washington Counties in Idaho] peaked in June-July of 2022,’ wrote Williams. Local homes on the market on the 1st of the month in November were 296, with an average sale price of $314,352 and 59 days on the market. In June, 264 were on the market, averaging $375,798 and just 19 days on the market. The average sale price in December 2021 was $341,424 and 25 days on the market.”

The Chicago Sun Times in Illinois. “Six years ago, Mekazin Alexander bought a 6,000-square-foot lot several houses down from where she owns a home in Englewood. It cost her a dollar. A few years after shutting down the program, the city is preparing to relaunch it next year, with more than 2,000 vacant, city-owned lots on the South and West sides going up for sale. But the biggest difference: Instead of costing $1, lots will be sold for at least 10% of the market rate, a change that has enraged some residents. Margaret Decker, a member of the mayor’s economic development team cited a need to encourage more housing developments. ‘We know that there’s a huge need for housing in Chicago and particularly on the South and West sides. We’re seeing an exodus of people from the city and so we’re trying to facilitate opportunities for more housing development.'”

KETK in Texas. “Johnathan Wolf, a Tyler realtor, said inflation was a major factor in 2022 for stagnant sales. Experts also mentioned the market in 2022 was very competitive. ‘As an understatement it was booming. Sellers (and) buyers going crazy. Buyers going against each other because interest rates were super low,’ Hila Gama, a realtor. Both realtors agree that a transition into a buyer’s market is happening. ‘Sellers, you might not get a bidding war and might have to reduce your price if the buyers don’t see it fit,’ said Wolf.”

“‘Whenever we saw interest rates at a 1-2%, buyers were taking advantage of that. Now that rates aren’t ‘on sale’, it’s better for them to sit back and relax and ask, ‘do I really need this property?’ said Gama.”

From Global News. “Where will price declines in the Canadian housing sector bottom out? And will all markets and property classes be hit evenly? The pain of higher interest rates could hit the pre-construction market especially hard in 2023, some experts warn. Nasma Ali, founder of OneGroup in Toronto says that for buyers who put money down on a home in 2020, when interest rates were low, the bar for qualifying for a mortgage is much higher after the Bank of Canada’s rapid hikes in 2022. Some of these buyers locked in their purchase at high pandemic prices and haven’t benefited from the recent cooling, she notes, and are now forced to pay peak prices at much higher interest rates.”

“With those homes coming up for completion in the year ahead, these buyers will be forced into difficult positions, Ali says. Some could be forced to come up with extra money to cover a home that wasn’t appraised for the mortgage they needed, or they may not be able to afford the monthly mortgage on the property with today’s higher rates, she explains. These buyers may have to assign their sale if they can or sell at a steep loss, Ali says. ‘If the dominoes fall, usually what this means is that we’re going to see finally many listings hit the market,’ she says.”

“John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty in Toronto, agrees that the pre-construction market is looking vulnerable heading into 2023. Prospective buyers could even find a deal if an investor is desperate to unload their pre-construction condo, he says. ‘We’re starting to see some distress among pre-construction condo investors,’ he says.”

The Telegraph. “‘Home ownership is a very British thing,’ says Leon Ward, 31. ‘We live in a country where you’re told it’s the right thing to do.’ Ward, a charity worker who recently bought a property by taking out a 35-year mortgage, is less certain. His three-bedroom Victorian house in Cardiff brings other pressures. By his own account, the property was ‘dilapidated,’ and renovation work running over-budget swallowed up any savings remaining from the deposit. ‘Some people would say I was daft to buy a house that needed a 35-year mortgage,’ he admits. ‘Others would say it was the best thing to do because bricks and mortar always go up in price.'”

“‘I’d be daft not to take it because the other option is that I could be renting and paying someone else’s mortgage. If the property price falls then I’m b—–ed, but we’ll just have to see.'”

The South China Morning Post. “A wave of job cuts among China’s giant technology companies has sent the home market reeling in neighbourhoods where waves of tech professionals – flush with high salaries and housing perks – drove prices upwards in recent years. When Linda Wu, a product manager working at Alibaba, moved to Hangzhou several months ago, she was surprised to hear an agent press her to buy a house near her office at a ‘very low price,’ rather than renting. The agent presented it as a ‘golden time’ to buy, because many people who lost their jobs were unable to pay their mortgages and were putting their homes on sale at low prices.”

“For example, proximity to Alibaba’s headquarters made Future Science Town in Hangzhou’s Yuhang district a property hotspot in the city in recent years, despite its location 45 minutes by subway from the city centre. But home prices have plunged in the area since June, linked to massive lay-offs at Alibaba, which let about 10,000 employees go in the second quarter, according to financial reports.”

“Second-hand home prices in Yuhang district dropped by about 15,000 yuan (US$2,150) in the last several months, two local agents told the Post, citing the job cuts as one factor. Home prices in one prime neighbourhood once hit 83,000 yuan per square metre, but the figure fell nearly 28 per cent to 60,000 yuan in 2022, according to a local agent website. Social-media posts also back up the trend, with laid-off technology professionals lamenting their inability to keep paying for their homes.”

“In addition to Yuhang, areas such as Beijing’s Zhongguancun in Haidian district and Shenzhen’s Nanshan district have had relatively high housing prices in recent years, said Jinfeng Shi, an analyst at Credit Suisse. ‘But we can see those once hot areas cooled down [in 2022].’ The Hangzhou agent who talked about a ‘golden’ time to buy failed to convince Wu. ‘I had considered buying a home in Hangzhou,’ she said. ‘But now I would think twice, because you never know if you will lose your job tomorrow.'”

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This Post Has 105 Comments

  1. ‘He refers to an influx of asylum-seekers, mostly people who crossed the southern border and rode buses to New York. ‘Maybe the kids of those Google engineers and the kids of those asylum-seekers from Venezuela will wind up in the same pre-K class, in a Manhattan public school,’ said Lander. ‘And that’s the future of New York’

    Click!

  2. ‘Local homes on the market on the 1st of the month in November were 296, with an average sale price of $314,352 and 59 days on the market. In June, 264 were on the market, averaging $375,798…The average sale price in December 2021 was $341,424’

    More little sh$tholes rolling over YOY.

    1. ‘It is my opinion, that our local market [Malheur County in Oregon and Payette & Washington Counties in Idaho] peaked in June-July of 2022,’ wrote Williams.”

      Another genius Relitter®.

  3. I love some blood on the human poo filled streets in the mornin! Don’t step in the .

    ‘The old maxim says that the best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets’

    1. “Historic, heavy rainfall in the San Francisco area has caused “sewer geysers” to explode on city streets, sending jets of water high into the air as the city’s overwhelmed drains cannot contain the high volume of rainwater.

      2. Storm drains and sewer lines are two different things. Waste water treatment plants can only treat a limited volume of water, and any storm water making its way into the system is considered “infiltration.” At that point, the excess water runs into the ocean outlets untreated.

        2. I live in an older suburb outside Chicago. In my town and throughout Chicago proper, the storm sewers and sanitary sewers are one in the same. Sewer backup is a huge issue for homeowners basements. The sewer fills up and the lowest drain is people’s basements. Happened to me twice in two months after I bought my home. I spent five figures to dig out the old sewer lines and install overhead sewers so I don’t get backup anymore.

          1. > In my town and throughout Chicago proper, the storm sewers and sanitary sewers are one in the same.

            I thought the Deep Tunnel was supposed to alleviate that. They’ve been working on that thing forever it seems.

  4. ‘Some of these buyers locked in their purchase at high pandemic prices and haven’t benefited from the recent cooling, she notes, and are now forced to pay peak prices at much higher interest rates’

    Wa happened to my winnahs!?

    ‘With those homes coming up for completion in the year ahead, these buyers will be forced into difficult positions, Ali says. Some could be forced to come up with extra money to cover a home that wasn’t appraised for the mortgage they needed, or they may not be able to afford the monthly mortgage on the property with today’s higher rates, she explains. These buyers may have to assign their sale if they can or sell at a steep loss’

    A lot of these guys borrowed for multiple non-existent airboxes Ali.

    1. I know someone who did this. At least in America, you can’t get the loan until the house is done. The builder took forever to finish and the guy I know watched rates go up and up and he couldn’t lock in until the house was pretty much done. He should have given up his deposit but oh well.

  5. ‘His three-bedroom Victorian house in Cardiff brings other pressures. By his own account, the property was ‘dilapidated,’ and renovation work running over-budget swallowed up any savings remaining from the deposit’

    I’m curious Leon, is it Victorian cuz in as built in the Victorian age?

    ‘Victorian era, in British history, the period between approximately 1820 and 1914, corresponding roughly but not exactly to the period of Queen Victoria’s reign (1837–1901)’

    ‘I’d be daft not to take it because the other option is that I could be renting and paying someone else’s mortgage. If the property price falls then I’m b—–ed’

    You really know the lingo Leon. Not sure what you said but we get the idea.

    1. Yer buggered all right, Leon. Though we high-brows here at the HBB prefer to use the more genteel word “schlonged.”

  6. ‘are also trying to stave off a separate foreclosure lawsuit in Palm Beach County Circuit Court filed by another lender. In 2015, the partners paid $26 million for the property formerly known as The President Country Club’

    2015 was the peak for airboxes in Miami. I guess yer fooked in Palm Beach too. Which brings up a point that’s increasingly clear. It’s not subprime or not, it’s when you borrowed that determines how fooked you are. Just like the 2000’s.

  7. ‘Sellers, you might not get a bidding war and might have to reduce your price if the buyers don’t see it fit’

    Bidding wars in Tyler Texas.

    ‘Whenever we saw interest rates at a 1-2%, buyers were taking advantage of that. Now that rates aren’t ‘on sale’, it’s better for them to sit back and relax and ask, ‘do I really need this property?’

    So Hila, before it didn’t matter if you needed it? There’s more raccoons in Tyler than people.

    2. Elon Musk has teased the release of bombshell Twitter files related to Dr Anthony Fauci this week, as part of what he calls the ‘Fauci Files’. 

      On Sunday, Musk tweeted: ‘Hope you’re having a great day 1 2023! One thing’s for sure, it won’t be boring.’ 

      Referred to as ‘gain-of-function’ research, the controversial experiments involve manipulating viruses to make them more severe or transmissible with the hope of getting ahead of future mutations and outbreaks.

      ‘Despite these glaring issues, Twitter nonetheless had an internal Slack channel unironically called ‘Fauci Fan Club’,’ Musk wrote, in reference to the doctor’s claims that Musk’s theories should be disregarded as ‘misinformation.’ 

      Musk – who two weeks ago tweeted ‘My pronouns are Prosecute/Fauci’ – went on to link a Newsweek article titled ‘Fauci Was “Untruthful” to Congress About Wuhan Lab Research, New Documents Appear to Show.’ 

      The story, however, linked to a September 2021 report from The Intercept, which found that the National Institutes of Health (NIH), at the time headed by Fauci, allocated government grant money to ‘gain-of-function’ research.

      Musk then included a May 2021 article from National Review that pointed to the fact that Fauci, in 2012, previously argued that the benefits of ‘gain-of-function’ outweighed the risks brought by a worldwide pandemic.

      Musk claimed in an accompanying caption that Fauci and his team may have accidentally manufactured the virus, writing: ‘”Gain-of-function” in this context is just another way of saying “bioweapon”.’

      ‘Some good nuggets in [the National Review] article,’ Musk cheekily added.

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11591295/Elon-Musk-teases-release-bombshell-Twitter-Files-focusing-Dr-Fauci-week.html

          1. Just saw A news article saying “Experts estimate 9 thousand deaths a day in
            China”, fears of new strains , etc etc.
            First somehow China , that was ground zero for Covid managed to avoid Covid outbreak in major cities for 21/2 years.
            So, somehow the virus was put on Pause in China while it spread to the rest of the World. ,So than after 21/2 years China imposes strict zero Covid lockdowns , while the rest of the globe was scrapping lockdowns…
            Somehow Delta and other more lethal strains didn’t produce A high death rate in China but omicron is.. .. in a week of China easing on lockdowns claims of 60%
            Covid infection rate and a projection that 2
            million could possible die, with possible new Covid strain emerging….
            My take is round 2 of the epic Covid fraud, and United Nations calling for lockdowns and vaccine mandates.

            Lets face it , they are not going to allow the globe to go back to normal. They want populations to get at least 4 shots of the fake vaccines per year, with police state type lockdowns. China is obviously in collusion with Panademic Scam .
            And they are still using the inaccurate PCR test to determine A case of Covid.
            There is a great need to cover up all the death and injury from the fake vaccine , to divert to new variant scare.

          2. Just saw A news article saying “Experts estimate 9 thousand deaths a day in China”

            Yeah, they are trying to drum up the fear. I’m seeing more masks when I go out, but still very few.

            I will say this: it sure seems like the jabbed get sick a lot more than the pure bloods. Every jabbed person I know has either had a cold or the flu lately, and has has a hard time getting better.

        2. As much as I would like for it to happen, I just can’t see it. I’m afraid the best we can expect is a few individuals, after losing loved ones, taking justice into their own hands on local individuals who were the loudest supporters of mandated vaccinations.

          1. +1 but don’t threaten any Feds or other elected officials, or you will get tossed in the January 6th gulag.

            Were one to undertake extrajudicial actions (in a fictional game of Minecraft), aim for the Blue Checkmarks…

      2. “I will never regret the vaccine. Even if it turns out I injected actual poison and have only days to live. My heart and is was in the right place. I got vaccinated out of love, while antivaxxers did everything out of hate. If have to die because of my love for the world, then so be it. But I will never regret or apologize for it.”

        https://ibb.co/RNR2G6t

        “They’re not sending their best”

          1. Ironically, I didn’t get jabbed cuz science. Unfortunately, the left has turned science into a set of mental disorders.

          2. Boy the conquences of being surrounded by people who would like to stone you, or sent you to camps for not being vaxxed.
            This is the scary part of this social engineering and censorship that have turned people into mindless victims of the Covid scam, totally willing to punish the unvaxxed.
            And even after overwhelming evidence the flake vaccine didn’t prevent Covid, but caused A lot of death and injury, the unvaxxed are hateful and bad people.
            And my friend who took the jabs ,who is having A bunch of medical problem now, ,
            told me he took the jabs because it was the right thing to do.

          3. And my friend who took the jabs ,who is having A bunch of medical problem now, told me he took the jabs because it was the right thing to do.

            Some people never learn and cannot be helped.

          4. I didn’t get jabbed cuz

            I did my due diligence on the technologies and companies, something I’m actually educated to and experienced at doing unlike “Dr” John Campbell.

          5. “Dr” John Campbell

            I find him to be utterly despicable. While he may have started out with the best of intentions, he was quickly out of his depth of expertise and abetted genocide for money.

        4. My heart and is was in the right place. I got vaccinated out of love, while antivaxxers did everything out of hate.

          No, you were a fookin’ ‘tard who was milked by big pharma. Now fook off.

  9. ‘Maybe the kids of those Google engineers and the kids of those asylum-seekers from Venezuela will wind up in the same pre-K class, in a Manhattan public school,’ said Lander. ‘And that’s the future of New York.’”

    Import the Third World, become the Third World. If the globalists & their Democrat-Bolshevik Quislings have their way, our national descent into a corrupt banana republic will be complete by the time Brandon leaves office.

    1. Maybe the kids of those Google engineers and the kids of those asylum-seekers from Venezuela will wind up in the same pre-K class, in a Manhattan public school,’
      Don’t kid/lie to yourself. The kids of Google engineers won’t be going to public schools, at least not if they are filled with kids from Venezuela. Private schools exist.

      1. Which is how it works in the third world. The masses send their kids to junky government schools and the UMC send their kids to private schools.

  10. The agent presented it as a ‘golden time’ to buy, because many people who lost their jobs were unable to pay their mortgages and were putting their homes on sale at low prices.”

    Realtors are the same the world over. Right now is always the best time to buy, even if any objective analysis says otherwise. Always Be Closing doesn’t allow for truth-telling or fiduciary duty to “clients.”

  11. The Hangzhou agent who talked about a ‘golden’ time to buy failed to convince Wu. ‘I had considered buying a home in Hangzhou,’ she said. ‘But now I would think twice, because you never know if you will lose your job tomorrow.’”

    Any would-be homebuyers living under Communist regimes, whether in the PRC or California, has to factor in the economic mismanagement that is a feature, not a bug, of socialism.

  12. Wall Street Journal openly reporting that the “vaccines” don’t work.

    Are Vaccines Fueling New Covid Variants? (1/1/2023):

    “It isn’t clear that XBB is any more lethal than other variants, but its mutations enable it to evade antibodies from prior infection and vaccines as well as existing monoclonal antibody treatments. Growing evidence also suggests that repeated vaccinations may make people more susceptible to XBB and could be fueling the virus’s rapid evolution.

    A New England Journal of Medicine study published last month provides more evidence of the vulnerability caused by immune imprinting. Neutralizing antibodies of people who had received the bivalent were 26 times as high against the original Wuhan variant as they were against XBB and four times as high as they were against Omicron and the BA.5 variant.

    Similarly, a study this month in the journal Cell found that antibody levels of people who had received four shots were 145 times as high against the original Wuhan strain as the XBB variant. A bivalent booster only slightly increased antibodies against XBB. Experts nevertheless claim that boosters improve protection against XBB. That’s disinformation, to use their favored term.

    https://archive.fo/qUJbI

    Disinformation?

    COVID vaccines are poison.

  14. Heritage Canadians have found themselves strangers in a strange land as the globalist Quisling Lil’ Fidel has presided over unrestricted immigration and sold off the country to the highest bidder. Now that the former sheeple are getting red-pilled en masse following the proliferation of adverse health effects from Trudeau’s coerced vaccination campaign, Justin’s globalist handlers might be sensing the populist rage building up in Canada’s rural and conservative provinces.

    Canada bans foreigners from buying homes amid housing crisis
    Canada has introduced a drastic measure to ensure its citizens have somewhere to live amid a housing crisis being felt across the world.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/canada-bans-foreigners-from-buying-homes-amid-housing-crisis/news-story/54d47d889d20f6ce35d24f3d08a4edc5

    1. Several exceptions in the act allow individuals such as refugees and permanent residents who are not citizens to buy homes.

      Sounds like they are only discouraging ChiComs from buying.

  15. Russia Today — Germany acknowledges ‘new normal’ (1/2/2023):

    “High energy prices will become a new reality in Germany, Finance Minister Christian Lindner warned on Sunday.

    In an interview with Bild newspaper, Lindner admitted that Berlin is facing the prospect of more expensive energy in the long term without Russia’s natural gas.

    “It will be a new normal. Gas via the liquid gas terminals is more expensive than Russian pipeline gas for logistical reasons alone. So, the price level remains higher, but without ruinous spikes,” he said.

    https://www.rt.com/business/569295-germany-acknowledges-new-normal/

    “The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world” — Klaus Schwab

    1. The Great Reset is being applied in Europe. The middle class will be decimated and the continent will be deindustrialized. A relative works for BASF, which is quietly starting to shift production out of Germany and Europe in general, in order to remain competitive, with quite a bit coming to North America.

      1. Not before the Germans decide to take matters in their own hands. Happened several times a before during the past couple of centuries.

  16. A reader sent these in:

    Average home prices, average income, 30yr mortgage rates (inverted). Seems likely we will see a recoupling of home prices to income…and almost surely an overshoot to the downside.

    https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1608158073717243904

    Is it wrong to say that the loan model for STR’s (business loans, rather than mortgages, allowing for 10, 30, 50 units per super-host) is likely the new subprime, in new wrapping paper? Set to go terribly wrong in ’23/’24??? Anybody able to educate me?

    https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1608547880746504192

    a bunch of hardcore RE junkies i know in 🇨🇦 are having trouble figuring out what to do in 2023 and beyond now that flipping is DOA as an investment vehicle. im a recovering RE junkie myself going back 15 years so i understand the sentiment. the easy money/ gains are gone.

    https://twitter.com/d_demelis/status/1608833505710178305

    So the @federalreserve has to be a net buyer of MBS to keep treasury-MBS spreads down?! Who knew?! We have displaced an entire generation from household formation because we couldn’t let natural market forces deflate the last housing bubble. This time we need Fed to stay out.

    https://twitter.com/windgineering/status/1609395076504887296

    The reason supply is constrained is the misallocation of housing that came from hyper low rates. As holders become illiquid with a contracting economy, they will become sellers. It is painful, but necessary. The Fed is choosing between holders & priced out buyers, primarily youth

    https://twitter.com/windgineering/status/1605613900938022913

    “The Great Reset” in two charts. (everywhere except the U.S. because of 30 year fixed)

    https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1609692913935724544

    Australia RE

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1609686010618859520

    CMBS delinquencies creeping up 🚩🚩🚩

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1609679521221062656

    US Treasury Yields: End of 2021 -> End of 2022
    1-Mo: 0.06% -> 4.12%
    3-Mo: 0.06% -> 4.42%
    6-Mo: 0.19% -> 4.76%
    1-Yr: 0.39% -> 4.73%
    2-Yr: 0.73% -> 4.41%
    3-Yr: 0.97% -> 4.22%
    5-Yr: 1.26% -> 3.99%
    7-Yr: 1.44% -> 3.96%
    10-Yr: 1.52% -> 3.88%
    30-Yr: 1.90% -> 3.97%

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1609214168783101952

    2022 was the worst year in history for bonds, with no place to hide except Treasury Bills and short duration.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1609267141064155136

    Industries with the most distress debt 🏡

    https://twitter.com/MenthorQpro/status/1609683229996376065

    Aaron Layman

    Home prices in the DFW area closed out 2022 down roughly 10% from their May/June peak. Prices in Dallas County were down 17% from the peak as average prices went year-over-year negative (-2.3%) according to preliminary data.

    https://twitter.com/dfwaaronlayman/status/1609539841586241536

    Be a landlord they said..it’ll be fun they said…🤦‍♂️

    https://twitter.com/wealthbuildin15/status/1608964329218641920

    John Wake

    5 Metro Phoenix zip codes switch from homeowner to renter majority

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1609594542923354113

    Richard Florida

    “Sales of luxury U.S. homes fell 38.1% year over year during the three months ending Nov. 30, 2022, the biggest decline on record …”

    https://twitter.com/Richard_Florida/status/1609575871051882503

    I have a decent nose for grifters. And this sort of post strikes me as classic grift. No one wealthy I know (including great investors in their youth like Buffett) shouted, they all whisper. BUT maybe I’m miscalibrated for real estate. Are they all like this? https://twitter.com/MultifamilyMad

    https://twitter.com/ebitdaddy90/status/1609586864679440384

  17. New York Times — Russia’s War on Ukraine Worsens Global Starvation (1/2/2023):

    Correction to that article title: The West’s War on Russia.

    “An enduring global food crisis has become one of the farthest-reaching consequences of Russia’s war, contributing to widespread starvation, poverty and premature deaths.”

    Correction: The West’s War.

    “The United States and allies are struggling to reduce the damage. American officials are organizing efforts to help Ukrainian farmers get food out of their country through rail and road networks that connect to Eastern Europe and on barges traveling up the Danube River.

    But as deep winter sets in and Russia presses assaults on Ukraine’s infrastructure, the crisis is worsening. Food shortages are already being exacerbated by a drought in the Horn of Africa and unusually harsh weather in other parts of the world.

    The United Nations World Food Program estimates that more than 345 million people are suffering from or at risk of acute food insecurity, more than double the number from 2019.

    https://archive.ph/WPu37

    Zelensky is a war criminal.

    1. So, the west is reducing farming by 30%, but will blame food shortages on Russia. Why not? They did the same with oil and natgas production, and also blamed it on Russia, and most people bought it.

  18. Propaganda and lies.

    The Guardian — How Adrian Fontes plans to protect Arizona’s elections from ‘Maga fascists’ (1/2/2023):

    “The sense of urgency is understandable. As secretary of state, Fontes will be responsible for overseeing all statewide elections in Arizona. The state found itself at the frontline of efforts to subvert democracy in the wake of Donald Trump’s lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him, with Republicans staging a widely derided “audit” of the count and attempting to send fake electors to Washington.

    That includes federal elections, and with them the 2024 presidential election in which Trump is attempting a comeback. Arizona counties are already preparing for the next battle for the White House, with primary elections to select the two main parties’ nominees only 15 months away.

    “Maga fascist” is Fontes’ preferred terminology for “election deniers”. He uses the phrase liberally, referring to Donald Trump’s election slogan, “Make America Great Again” (Maga), which is used by opponents to indicate the former US president’s shrinking and increasingly rightwing base of loyal voters.

    It indicates how Fontes plans to shore up democracy in his new role as Arizona secretary of state.

    “I use the words ‘Maga fascists’ because it’s the truth,” he said. “These people are not Grand Old Party Republicans; they are Maga fascists. There is no reason for me to call them by anything other than what they are. If they feel a little sensitive about that, then maybe they ought to reconsider their position vis-a-vis American democracy and stop acting like fascists.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/02/arizona-adrian-fontes-secretary-of-state-safeguard-elections

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    The 2022 election was also stolen.

    2. “The 2022 election was also stolen.”

      When the Christian Nationalists decided to prosecute their opening salvo on Roe v Wade prior to the midterms in order to control and ultimately reign-in the power between women’s thighs they ruined any chance of a moderate Senate. You’ll have to move to Orthodox Russia if you want to whip your women with an extension cord.

      1. You should really do some research on Planned Parenthood’s history as well as its procedural and financial practices, in addition to other reliable forms of birth control. As oxide said, this isn’t 1973.

        1. A federally recognized right to an abortion enables federal money to flow to Planned Parenthood then back to Democrats. Planned Parenthood has modified abortion practices to preserve the viability and salability of fetal tissues. I’m all for a woman’s right to choose up to a point, at which a woman abdicates that choice (arguably viability, but with modern medicine that point moves earlier and earlier), but Planned Parenthood’s business model is beyond disgusting.

      2. You’ll have to move to Orthodox Russia if you want to whip your women with an extension cord.

        All hail globohomo!

      3. in order to control

        You should really be happy. It has been declared that your state can make its rules about what is legal murder and what is not. The power is closer to you now.

      4. “When the Christian Nationalists decided to prosecute their opening salvo on Roe v Wade prior to the midterms in order to control and ultimately reign-in the power between women’s thighs they ruined any chance of a moderate Senate.”

        You’ll have to deal with your own condemnation. Don’t expect others to accept it.

  19. Housing Prices are Declining But Not Declining!
    William Gross
    Jan 1, 2023
    Housing Prices are going down, but not really!

    That sounds confusing.

    Let’s start with the market overview.

    Nationally, housing inventory continues to track down below every year but 2021 is the lowest year in history. This is the strongest indicator of market health, and this shows the market is still very healthy and nowhere near a crash given current conditions.

    The decline is even more obvious in the Los Angeles market, shown here:

    And, yet, the headlines are declining numbers, always bad. for example, here is Fortunae Magazine citing the Case-Schiller report with drops in sales prices, including a drop of 6.1% in Los Angeles.

    So, are prices declining? Well, yes and no.

    The total sales are less, but that is explained that fewer large homes are being purchased in this post-pandemic period, yet for the same size home prices are continuing to increase.

    Let’s look at the data.

    here Altos Research breaks down Los Angeles and shows the per square foot dropping from $743 to $723. OK, does that mean home prices are going down?

    Well, yes, on average, but that is because there are fewer larger homes being purchased than last year. When we look at the breakdown by market segment, each segment, even the larger homes are selling for a higher dollar per square foot than last year or 2 years ago. So the mix of fewer larger homes and a larger portion of smaller homes makes the average decline, but for any particular product, the cost is going up per square foot. 

    To put the market in perspective, Lance Lambert of Fortune Magazine puts the Case-Schiller data in perspective when you see that of the 41.3% price gains the average homeowner experienced they may have given back 3.33% in the most recent correction.

    When you combine this new equity with the limited inventory, a housing crash is almost impossible going forward unless there are major changes in our economy.

    Another red herring the real estate news talks about is the lack of affordability. Now, obviously, if homes are not affordable, they are by definition more valuable. That said, look how dishonest the statistics are. 

    So, this graph would appear to say it is more expensive to own an average home than to rent it by $1,000 a month. So, let’s count the ways this is misleading.
    1. The monthly cost of ownership includes the principal, which is the portion of the loan being reduced by the loan payment. But that is not really a cost, that would be a benefit, and the principal should be removed from this calculation;
    2. Tax benefit of owning; most homeowners are able to deduct a portion of their home payment, as well as the property taxes;
    3. Tax-deferred appreciation. The main reason people buy a home, in addition to the principal reduction and tax benefits, is that over time the property goes up in value. When you put only 5% down, your investment is levered 20 times, meaning if the house goes up in value by 3% per year it is the return on the investment of 60% per year. When a $400,000 value property goes up 3% in a year, the homeowner not only gets 3% since they only put down $20,000 the 3% appreciation of $12,000 is a return of 60% on their investment in year 1.

    So, then the press cannot predict a housing crash, look for more articles on the lack of affordability, but I would not fall for any crocodile tears.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xanieTYGpkg

    10:33.

    2. 2. Tax benefit of owning; most homeowners are able to deduct a portion of their home payment, as well as the property taxes;”

      State tax deductions capped at 10K that includes property tax so not much of a benefit. I think Biden wanted to raise it to 80K but it went crickets when they saw how broke they are.

    1. The Financial Times
      Commodities
      Commodities trading boom raises fear of big losses among retail investors
      Experts warn of market volatility as trading volumes of gold, oil, silver and copper have surged
      Commodities have been the best-performing major asset class for each of the past two years, according to Bank of America
      Madison Darbyshire and Nicholas Megaw in New York 3 hours ago

      Growing numbers of retail investors are being drawn into commodity trading after two consecutive years of bumper returns, despite concerns that they could suffer huge losses or disrupt the complex and volatile markets.

      Retail trading volumes in commodity futures and the largest commodity-focused investment funds surged in 2022. But while activity has been spurred by commodities’ much better recent record than that of stocks and bonds, some market participants and analysts have voiced fears about retail traders wading in to a highly volatile market dominated by specialised players.

      Daily average trading volumes in CME’s micro contracts for gold, crude oil, silver and copper — which it uses as a proxy for retail activity — were up 93 per cent year on year as of the end of November.
      …

      1. “…fear of big losses among retail investors…”

        What boom in what market doesn’t raise fears of big losses among retail investors? A primary purpose of asset price bubbles is fleecing the muppets who buy at the top.

  22. The 2020 election was stolen.

    Politico — Inside the Jan. 6 committee’s massive new evidence trove (1/2/2023):

    “The Jan. 6 select committee has unloaded a vast database of its underlying evidence — emails between Trump attorneys, text messages among horrified White House aides and outside advisers, internal communications among security and intelligence officials — all coming to grips with Donald Trump’s last-ditch effort to subvert the 2020 election and its disastrous consequences.

    The panel posted thousands of pages of evidence late Sunday in a public database that provide the clearest glimpse yet at the well-coordinated effort by some Trump allies to help Trump seize a second term he didn’t win. Much of the evidence has never been seen before and, in some cases, adds extraordinary new elements to the case the select committee presented in public — from voluminous phone records to contemporaneous text messages and emails.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/02/jan-6-committee-files-trump-evidence-00076004

    The 2020 election was stolen.

    We watched it stolen in real time, from the night of Tuesday 11/3/2020 until the media coronation was announced on Saturday 11/7/2020. Joe Biden will never be the legitimately elected president of the United States, because the 2020 election was stolen.

    Trump won.

  23. The 2020 election was stolen.

    The Hill — Merrick Garland’s unprecedented dilemma (1/2/2023):

    “In the new year, Merrick Garland will face two unprecedented scenarios: He could become the first attorney general in American history to indict a former president, as well as the first attorney general to be impeached by Congress. 

    For months, Garland has faced the unenviable prospect of having to eventually decide whether or not to prosecute Donald Trump. There are two ongoing federal investigations into the former president: One involving his possible mishandling of classified documents and presidential records, and the other concerning his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    This month, the House Select Committee that was separately investigating Jan. 6 unanimously recommended that the Department of Justice pursues at least four criminal charges against Trump for attempting to block the peaceful transfer of power after losing the 2020 election.

    https://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/3792925-merrick-garlands-unprecedented-dilemma/

    Merrick Garland was appointed Attorney General by an illegitimate, unelected president, therefore he is an illegitimate Attorney General, who does not have any legitimate authority to prosecute anything.

  25. “You Don’t Have To Be A Conspiracy Theorist To Be Worried About The World Economic Forum”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/you-dont-have-be-conspiracy-theorist-be-worried-about-world-economic-forum

    (a snip)

    It wields no formal political power and can’t make anyone do anything. Nonetheless, since its founding in 1971, the WEF has become an organisation which embodies supreme confidence in the imperative of a particular type of person running the world from the top-down. In his famous 2004 essay entitled ‘Dead Souls’, the political scientist Samuel P. Huntington called this prototype ‘Davos Man’.

    A clever moniker that neither Schwab nor the WEF have ever succeeded in shaking off, Davos Man was Huntington’s short-hand description of “academics, international civil servants and executives in global companies, as well as successful high-technology entrepreneurs” who thought alike and tended to view national loyalties and boundaries “as residues from the past”. Davos Man also looked with undisguised disdain, Huntington suggested, upon those who weren’t getting with the programme – whatever the content of the programme happened to be.

    1. Pretty much every western government has been infiltrated by WEF puppets. They run the west, stuffing ballot boxes when needed, and they run it with an iron fist. The Great Reset is happening, faster in some countries than others. Europe is already undergoing the transformation, freezing in the flats and watching their deindustrialization happening in real time. The US border is wide open and caravan after caravan arrives. So many are crossing it that even sanctuary cities are complaining about the number of people being bussed into their metros.

  26. This is actually real. Just another day in Joe Biden’s America.

    The Salty Cracker — Lunatics Shoving Frozen Tomato Juice Up Their Butt To Simulate Periods (7m40s):

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/z1MtttHAvDUv/

    Housing? Why yes, housing, because when you buy a house, your property taxes are paying to promote this in the public schools. And if you dare object, Merrick Garland will toss yer @zz in the January 6th gulag.

    Real Journalists have informed that this is some kind of logical extension to a “civil rights” movement and that the actions detailed in the video are on “the right side of history.”

    Keep paying those property taxes, slaves.

    1. are on “the right side of history

      They keep saying that, until the west collapses. Then they will be nowhere to be found.

      1. Oh they’ll be found all right.

        Up against the wall, in great big ditches, in mass unmarked burial pits. Oh yes, they’ll be found.

  28. 𝗝𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗧𝗡 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟱% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗟𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗥𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵

    https://www.movoto.com/jefferson-city-tn/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘣𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘦𝘥, “𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘫𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘩𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘰𝘸𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘤.”

  30. Federal officials left dozens of migrants scattered at bus stations across San Diego County on Friday as winter storms blocked travel nationally and the region’s migrant shelters filled to capacity.”

    Kamala harris ? Anyone ?

    1. One has to wonder what these people were told before starting their long treks to the US border. Were they told that they would be welcomed with open arms and they would receive everything for free? This level of migration is unparalleled in history. How many will join a caravan and show up at the border this year? 5 million? 10 million?

      It is clear that the government doesn’t care about the havoc that is heppening. This reminds me of Europe a few years ago when they had their own caravans, and other than in Hungary and Poland, no one in charge seemed to care. Hungary was on the receiving end of Brussels’ wrath for fencing and guarding its borders. And how the Germans memory holed the rapes in Cologne.

      1. They’re doing it to eventually give them all asylum so they’ll vote Democrat. Yes, there are all kinds of other problems created in the meantime, but none of them are as important as creating millions and millions of new Democrat voters seemingly overnight when the next amnesty bill passes. Everything and I mean everything the Biden administration does is meant to increase its own power. They could care less for the voters – they don’t even need voters any more. They only need ‘Ballots’ through massive ballot harvesting campaigns. These new people are new potential ballots in 10-15 years. They truly don’t care what happens to anyone who lives here, just whether or not they’ll still be in power in 10-15 years.

  33. 𝗔𝗹𝗯𝗮𝗻𝘆, 𝗢𝗥 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗢𝗻 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱

    https://www.movoto.com/albany-or/market-trends/

    “𝘏𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘢𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘳 𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘧𝘳𝘢𝘶𝘥.”

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