The Pressure To Pay Interest Every Month Has Turned Our Hope For A Big Profit Into A Time Bomb

1. ‘Nearly 32,000 condos will hit the city and surrounding suburbs…Dozens of projects had no sales during the quarter’

   DONG!

   1. There are people like myself who would never buy a condo at any price. Just the carrying costs and the threat of “special assessments” are enough to keep me away. If somebody wanted to give me a condo for free, I’d only accept if I could turn right around and sell it.

2. You will own nothing

   1. Your stuff owns you.

      1. How do I not get owned? Stressing out here

3. ‘Early in 2022 Phuc borrowed VND1.5 billion to buy a plot of land near an industrial park in a province bordering HCMC after a broker said he could resell it within eight months for a profit of 10-15%. But Phuc has yet to find a buyer while the loan interest rate has surged to nearly 14%. Most of his monthly income goes toward paying the interest. He said: ‘I have already lowered the offer price to the original buying price. I don’t know if I can hold out [for much longer]’

   Now dammit Phuc, yer giving it away, I can tell.

   1. “But Phuc has yet to find a buyer…”

      Sounds like ‘yer Phuc’d.

4. ‘The vacancy rate rose 20 basis points in Q4, due in large part to a quiet quarter from the federal government, which only signed one 10K SF lease’

   Where’s taxpayer now that guberment has thrown his a$$ under the commie bus?

5. ‘Gone are the days of ‘I’m not going to do anything to this house and sell it.’ I mean, you can still do that, but you’re going to take a big hit on pricing if you do that.’

   Don’t forget to tell sellers to flush the floaters Sindy.

   1. Sindy with an “S?” We see it all here.

   2. “…but you’re going to take a big hit on pricing…”

      There go the comps!

6. Damar Hamlin

   1. His name is Damar Hamlin.

      What is his name? His name is Damar Hamlin. Over 20 million people saw him take the hit and collapse on the field from a heart attack at age 24, on live TeeVee.

      1. 🏈 ANOTHER NFL player dies suddenly SAME DAY as Damar Hamlin, this is normal 🤡🤡🤡

         https://www.bitchute.com/video/qo46levF7RlN/

         28 seconds.

   2. “Damar Hamlin”

      – Any updates to his condition?
      – My prayers are with him.

      1. Age 24. His mom was at the game and saw this happen.

         If this isn’t a wake up call to millions of brainwashed NPCs, nothing will be.

         And we are NOT going to stop discussing it here.

   3. This is credible scientific analysis. Not regurgitation, underlines and circles.

      Chris Martenson: Damar Hamlin Condition After Collapse On Field -why? (31m15s)

7. ‘I was a victim of FOMO during the housing market craziness and bought a house for $200,000 over the asking price’

   A victim!

   ‘Now house prices are coming back to reality, and I feel like I lost my hard-earned money’

   Well, you did lose yer money, but it was cheaper than renting.

8. ‘It’s going to be trickier’ to achieve a soft landing for the economy in 2023 if the Fed follows through on its tightening plans…Given their blunt policy tool, ‘they are butchers, not surgeons’

   It’ worse than that Mark. They aren’t even butchers. Right now, what s a central banker doing? Sittin’ on their fat a$$e$ playing video games.

   1. Weird how none of these asz clowns were complaining about the FED as they were destroying pricing in the entire economy on the way up, right? It’s almost as if they were all blinded by greed or something.

9. ‘Twelve months ago we told them everything is fine, yes you can borrow that much and everything will be fine, we’re happy, but 12 months later we are apologising to them’

   Dear loanowner, we regret to inform you and are deeply sorry…

   ‘a Melburnian in his 30s, had his mortgage rate fixed before the pandemic but that will expire next year, meaning if rates stay where they are, he could be forced to pay an extra $300 to $400 every month. ‘Money is gone quickly’

   Melburnian Dave, yer situation was also cheaper than renting. Just cut back, no forget about avocado sammies fer the duration.

10. 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹, 𝗧𝗡 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗥𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗣𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗲𝘁

    https://www.movoto.com/speedwell-tn/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥, “𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘥𝘰 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵. 𝘕𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨.”

11. “…Given their blunt policy tool, ‘they are butchers, not surgeons.’”

    What a perfect metaphor. Meat cleaver and blood splattering about a dead carcass.

12. ‘I think there was a certain belief within the sector that you know, this is really not just a blip. This is a major change in the way people are going to live their lives…And they may have gotten ahead of themselves a little bit’

    Peter are you saying my self driving flying taxi isn’t going to drop itself off next week?

13. “‘Those prices just shot up, and they’re still up. They’re not plummeting down, but they’re not shooting up at the same rate. They’re kinda coming back down to join those 2021 numbers, which is good. We can’t sustain 20% or 40% growth month-over-month. Traditionally in Knoxville, the market has appreciated at around 4% or 6% per month,’ said Trotta.”

    Woman…. yer a babbling idiot.

    Santa Ana, CA Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As Rampant Appraisal Fraud Blankets Southern California

    https://www.movoto.com/santa-ana-ca/market-trends/

    1. She absolutely is a babbling idiot. It is borderline comical to suggest that Knoxville typically averages 4-6% month over month gains but this kind of propaganda isn’t actually funny. Knoxville has gone through long periods of decline in the past. At the last bottom they were practically giving houses away here and the city routinely tears houses down. It is actually a bit alarming how many houses they have bulldozed but I guess it’s working because now no one can find a cheap place to live anymore. That said, the bottom is starting to drop out and reality will set back in here. The minimum wage here is still $7.25/hour.

14. – This.
    – A house is shelter; an illiquid, normally depreciating asset with high carrying costs.
    – RE bubbles as artificial economic activity to replace the off-shored manufacturing jobs.
    – The wealth effect when prices are rising. 🙂
    – Relies on low rates and easy lending.
    – Works until artificial, non-organic easy $ policies reverse due to some “unforeseen, unpredictable, unintended consequences” kick in, such as inflation.
    – The anti-wealth effect when prices are falling. 🙁
    – The easy $ tide is going out now. Asset bubbles always burst.
    – Bubble-nomics: Zero net gain after bursting bubbles, but wealth is transferred from bag-holders to elites. Same as stonks. Rinse and repeat, but now at final cycle due to debt and bailout limits in a finite world. $Bs now $Ts.
    – A global contagion, courtesy of governments and central banks.
    – Soft landing dead ahead. /s

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610412369288785920?cxt=HHwWgMDT1Y_hqtksAAAA

    Darth Powell 🦈🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇱🇫🇮 @GRomePow

    Typical home resale at a higher price is SOLELY a wealth transfer.

    No wealth is being created. Nothing is being produced.

    4:06 PM · Jan 3, 2023

15. Housing industry groups recognize — but downplay — the link between migration and rents

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/01/04/washpost-ignore-migration-but-blames-investors-for-record-rents/

16. Health Care Workers Cry Foul on FDA Claiming It Didn’t Prohibit Ivermectin for COVID-19

    Dr. Yusuf Saleeby has practiced medicine for more than 30 years. He serves patients in South Carolina and until recently had never faced an investigation from his state medical board.

    But after Saleeby started prescribing ivermectin to his patients, he was reported to the board, which opened an investigation, despite the state’s attorney general’s promise that his office wouldn’t prosecute doctors who prescribed off-label medications.

    Jennifer Wright, a nurse practitioner and clinical director who practices in Florida, but can prescribe across state lines, told The Epoch Times she received a letter from the Office of the Attorney General of New York ordering her not to prescribe ivermectin.

    “You know, basically threatened me. If I don’t stop prescribing, then they’re going to fine me,” Wright said about the letter, which threatened legal action with fines of up to $5,000 per violation.

    The letter stated that the Food and Drug Administration only authorized ivermectin for use in humans when treating “parasitic worms and head lice and skin conditions like rosacea.”

    The citation in the letter appears to be from an FDA advisory issued in March 2021 titled “Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19.”

    That advisory and other anti-ivermectin messaging from the FDA are now the subject of a lawsuit brought by three doctors against the agency. The doctors argue that the FDA illegally interfered with their ability to treat patients. The suit was dismissed but an appeal has been filed by the plaintiffs.

    During a hearing in 2022, attorneys defending the government argued that the agency’s missives were just a recommendation.

    “They did not say it’s prohibited or it’s unlawful. They also did not say that doctors may not prescribe ivermectin,” Isaac Belfer, one of the lawyers for the government, said during a Nov. 1, 2022, hearing in federal court in Texas.

    The government’s arguments differ greatly from the reality many doctors faced for prescribing ivermectin. Some lost their jobs, others were investigated by state medical boards, and many received threats from the New York attorney general because they were prescribing across state lines.

    Matthew Dark, a spokesperson for Roots Medical and Colorado Healthcare Providers for Freedom, which has more than 275 physicians in the group, stated that several doctors in Colorado are facing investigations by the state medical board.

    When asked about the FDA’s new claim, Dark stated: “They knew it was safe for humans, and they made that very accusatory thing if you were a doctor prescribing this, you were an idiot. You were practicing like a hillbilly. So that message was loud and clear.”

    Dark referred to Twitter posts from the FDA, one of which said: “You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.”

    “Pharmacies were responding to the practice and providers trying to write [ivermectin] the same way the FDA was behaving,” Dark said.

    Wright concurred, and pointing to her letter from the New York attorney general, said, “It clearly states in this letter that according to the FDA, you must cease and desist in prescribing ivermectin to New York State residents.”

    Dr. Miguel Antonatos, a board-certified internal medicine physician who practices out of Illinois, but can prescribe to other states, told The Epoch Times via email that he, too, received a letter from the New York attorney general.

    Nicole Sirotek is a registered nurse and founder of American Frontline Nurses, a patient advocacy network that boasts 22,000 nurses. She told The Epoch Times that her nurses often work with doctors in hospital settings.

    At the height of the pandemic, Sirotek said patients would reach out to her advocacy network and beg for ivermectin, either for themselves or their loved ones dying in the hospital.

    She stated that in five separate instances, doctors were fired or forced to resign for prescribing ivermectin as a home medication for nurses to administer in hospitals.

    “That happened five times, and each physician was fired. That’s five physicians in five different states and five different hospital systems.”

    Julie McCabe, a registered nurse and director of advocacy services for American Frontline Nurses, told The Epoch Times that the above doctors include Dr. Edith Behr in Pennsylvania, Dr. John Witcher in Mississippi, Dr. Mary Bowden in Texas, Dr. Robert Karas in Arkansas, and Dr. Paul Marik in Virginia. Bowden and Marik are two of the three doctors suing the FDA over its stance on ivermectin.

    Bowden told The Epoch Times that Houston Methodist Hospital suspended her for merely writing on Twitter about ivermectin, and she had to overcome “numerous obstacles” when prescribing it to patients.

    “The FDA was the key creator of these hurdles when it launched a social media campaign stating that ivermectin is dangerous and only for horses. When faced with a lawsuit, the FDA now claims it was merely making suggestions—suggestions that have threatened my ability to practice medicine and more importantly, interfered with life-saving early treatment of COVID patients,” Bowden said.

    Sirotek said members of the group Team Halo targeted her because of her stance on ivermectin. The group describes itself as “volunteer scientists and healthcare professionals from around the world, working to end this pandemic by contributing our time to address concerns and public health misinformation.”

    Members of the group filed several complaints to Nevada’s state medical board, which Sirotek said costs her $5,000 per complaint to fight.

    With tears streaming from her eyes, Sirotek said she’d also received death threats, pictures of her house, and threats to murder her children. Sirotek provided copies of these threats to The Epoch Times. Team Halo didn’t respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

    In the spring of 2020, with COVID-19 spreading like wildfire through the population, finding a viable treatment was paramount in many doctors’ minds. And as no drug was approved to treat the novel virus, they turned to off-label use, a standard medical practice even in non-pandemic times.

    In March 2020, a group of leading critical care specialists joined forces and formed the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC). Their mission was to examine different therapies and drugs and recommend possible COVID-19 treatments based on best medical practices and emerging data.

    Almost immediately, ivermectin was put forward as a possible treatment. First approved for human use in 1987 and dispensed billions of times since then, ivermectin is traditionally prescribed to treat parasites. But it’s safe and was already known to have an effect on viruses.

    “This is a medication that is safer than Tylenol, safer than stuff we sell over the counter,” Wright said.

    Saleeby agreed.

    “[Ivermectin is] probably one of the most prescribed drugs. It’s given out like candy in Sub-Saharan Africa and Amazon basin or anywhere around water. … It’s doled out to children and pregnant women. … As far as safety, it’s probably safer than baby aspirin. It’s probably the safest drug on the planet, to be honest.

    “I was using [ivermectin] sporadically in some of my Lyme patients. It’s effective against Lyme. We knew it had effectivity against viruses and other pathogens like Borrelia and Babesia.”

    Sirotek told The Epoch Times that, especially as the Delta strain increased hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, she and several nurses questioned why some countries seemingly remained unaffected. The answer, she believes, was widespread ivermectin use.

    At first, prescribing ivermectin and obtaining it from a regular pharmacy wasn’t an issue, Wright said. More importantly, it worked.

    “We started using it very early on, and I could prescribe it to the pharmacy. I would prescribe it according to the FLCCC recommendations because they were the ones doing the research. I was just validating that, you know, this has some real stuff behind it.”

    When the pandemic began, ivermectin as an effective treatment was primarily a theory. But as health care workers reported that it worked, more and more studies were conducted to back up those early successes.

    There have been 189 ivermectin COVID-19 studies, according to the aggregate site C19ivm.org. Of those studies, 139 have been peer-reviewed, and 93 compare treatment and control groups.

    In the 93 studies, which had more than 133,838 patients in 27 countries, there were “statistically significant improvements are seen for mortality, ventilation, ICU admission, hospitalization, recovery, cases, and viral clearance,” a real-time meta-analysis states.

    Simply put, as health care workers saw firsthand that ivermectin worked in their practices, studies were simultaneously confirming the medicine’s effectiveness.

    Dr. Peter Raisanen, a naturopathic medical doctor in Arizona, said that once he started his patients on ivermectin, they typically started feeling better within a few days.

    “It seemed like it was within three to four days, like they [started feeling] better,” Raisanen told The Epoch Times.

    Raisanen said he treated about 200 patients with ivermectin, and none died. Almost all stayed out of the hospital. That’s an experience several doctors attested to witnessing.

    “We’ve probably collectively [at Roots Medical], treated 1,000 people with early COVID,” Dark said.

    He said that when a patient was treated early on in their illness, there was a clear improvement—often within hours.

    “It’s within two hours of that first dose that people start feeling noticeably better. And within two days, most symptoms are gone. Again, this is with starting early treatment, say days one to three, one to four, of infection or symptoms,” Dark said.

    Sirotek said the nurses in her network partnered with My Free Doctor’s Dr. Ben Marble and his network of physicians. Altogether, the group treated more than 300,000 patients with early ivermectin intervention. She said of those 300,000, only three died.

    Saleeby didn’t specify the exact number of patients treated.

    “I’ve seen some miraculous things in the patients that I prescribed ivermectin to, who follow our instructions, and get on it right away at the appropriate dose and do the nutraceutical bundles,” he noted. “[They] are not going into the hospital and they’re not dying.”

    Saleeby said that he treated himself with ivermectin when he caught COVID-19. He credits its use with keeping him out of the hospital.

    While ivermectin was obtainable from traditional pharmacies at the start of the pandemic, health care providers soon started to get pushback.

    “As I started prescribing [ivermectin] to more and more people, I started getting calls from pharmacists,” Wright said.

    Susan Julian, a nurse practitioner and certified functional medicine practitioner with a practice in Indiana, said the first time she realized something was amiss was when one of her patients contacted her after she prescribed him ivermectin.

    Julian said that when her patient tried to have his prescription filled, the pharmacists asked him if it was for parasites. When the patient said it was for COVID-19, the pharmacists “hassled him right there in the store,” she told The Epoch Times.

    “Pharmacists are not supposed to ask people, ‘Why are you taking this medication?’ It’s not their business unless you make it their business,” Julian said.

    Shortly after, the pharmacies started calling Julian and stating they wouldn’t fill her prescriptions for patients.

    Dark, whose Colorado Healthcare Providers for Freedom network includes 275 doctors in Colorado, added that the pushback from pharmacies on ivermectin fulfillment was without precedent.

    “There has never been a drug, like ivermectin, so singular at being picked out and said that ‘we will not fill under any circumstances.’ That has never happened before,” Dark said.

    The refusals to fulfill prescriptions soon turned to threats.

    “I had pharmacists tell me that they’re recording me for misinformation. For doing harm to my patients,” Wright said.

    Circling back to the FDA and opposing ivermectin, Saleeby said: “[The FDA] really did go way out of the way to make it difficult for doctors to feel comfortable using it. By threatening their licenses, by kind of bullying them, if you will, into not prescribing it. To just go along with the narrative.”

    The FDA’s website states that if a viable treatment exists for an illness during a health emergency, neither medications nor vaccines may be approved using an emergency use authorization.

    While there isn’t concrete proof for their position, some doctors and nurses interviewed by The Epoch Times theorized that the FDA’s pushback against ivermectin was motivated by the need to secure an emergency use authorization for the COVID-19 vaccines.

    “They had an agenda. And the agenda was to push this new form of vaccine, this mRNA vaccine, because it was going to make the industry billions of dollars. And in order for them to promote this because they didn’t have the time to do randomized control trials for efficacy and safety, they had to use Emergency Use Authorization [EAU],” Saleeby said.

    “It completely destroys the vaccine position,” Dark concurred. “One thing that’s written very clearly is that you cannot have a known acceptable form of treatment out there available to the public and still be operating under emergency use.”

    “If there was a possible treatment for COVID-19, the vaccine would not be able to obtain emergency authorization use,” Wright said. “If there’s any possible treatment, then the vaccines would have to go through rigorous testing.”

    The Epoch Times sought comment from the FDA, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the state medical boards in Colorado and South Carolina, CVS, Walgreens, King Soopers, and the New York Attorney General’s office.

    The Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies stated, “Any complaint that may have been received by the Colorado Medical Board as part of an investigation is confidential and unavailable for public inspection pursuant.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/healthcare-workers-cry-foul-on-fda-claiming-it-didnt-prohibit-ivermectin-for-covid-19_4926221.html

    1. This law went into effect in California on January 1st:

       https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/11/14/doctors-sue-to-block-california-covid-disinformation-law/

       We have passed the point where voting your way out of this is a possibility.

       Ropes. The solution is ropes ☠️

    2. – Ivermectin – One of the key anti-COVID-19 drugs you’ve hardly heard of.
       – SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic: “science” = political science + $; not medical science.
       – Follow the money.

       https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/indias-ivermectin-blackout—part-v-the-secret-revealed/article_9a37d9a8-1fb2-11ec-a94b-47343582647b.html

       India’s Ivermectin Blackout – Part V: The Secret Revealed
       by Justus R. Hope, MD Sep 27, 2021 Updated Dec 2, 2021

       “The WHO explained, “Each monitoring team has two members who visit homes in villages and remote hamlets to test everyone with symptoms of COVID-19 using Rapid Antigen Test kits. Those who test positive are quickly isolated and given a medicine kit with advice on disease management.””

       “The medicines comprising the kit were not identified as part of the Western media blackout at the time. As a result, the contents were as secret as the sauce at McDonald’s.”

       “Just five short weeks later, on June 14, 2021, new cases had dropped a staggering 97.1 percent, and the Uttar Pradesh program was hailed as a resounding success. According to ZeeNews of India, “The strategy of trace, test & treat yields results.”

       “On August 6, 2021, India’s Ivermectin media blackout ended with MSN reporting. Western media, including MSN, finally acknowledged what was contained in those Uttar Pradesh medicine kits. Among the medicines were Doxycycline and Ivermectin.”

       “On August 25, 2021, the Indian media noticed the discrepancy between Uttar Pradesh’s massive success and other states, like Kerala’s, comparative failure. Although Uttar Pradesh was only 5% vaccinated to Kerala’s 20%, Uttar Pradesh had (only) 22 new COVID cases, while Kerala was overwhelmed with 31,445 in one day. So it became apparent that whatever was contained in those treatment kits must have been pretty effective.”

       Each home kit contained the following: Paracetamol tablets [tylenol], Vitamin C, Multivitamin, Zinc, Vitamin D3, Ivermectin 12 mg [quantity #10 tablets], Doxycycline 100 mg [quantity #10 tablets]. Other non-medication components included face masks, sanitizer, gloves and alcohol wipes, a digital thermometer, and a pulse oximeter. See mark 2:33.

       “Campbell reports that the exciting things in the kit that grabbed his attention were: Zinc, Vitamin D3, Ivermectin, and secondary antibiotic treatment. “Interesting, that’s what the government decided to give.” See mark 3:40″

       “Dr. Campbell attributes their success to many factors, including early detection and early treatment with kits costing a mere $ 2.65 per person. See mark 6:20.”

    3. “If there was a possible treatment for COVID-19, the vaccine would not be able to obtain emergency authorization use,”

       1. “If there was a possible treatment for COVID-19, the vaccine would not be able to obtain emergency authorization use,”

          – Key statement!
          – Ivermectin + vitamins = low cost, proven, safe + effective treatment.
          – Draw your own conclusions.

          1. My mother, an arthritis patient with a family history of lupus, was administered Ivermectin that worked just fine to relieve symptoms when she caught covid.

          2. I took it. Twice. After paying through nose for first dose, our government forced me to break the law and get it from India. Then I broke the law again and mailed it to all my brothers and sisters.

       2. This!

    4. The corporations and globalists have completely taken over the US government.

17. WBIR on Tennessee. “Suzy Trotta, a realtor who writes regularly about Knoxville’s market,…”

    “‘Those prices just shot up, and they’re still up. They’re not plummeting down, but they’re not shooting up at the same rate. They’re kinda coming back down to join those 2021 numbers, which is good. We can’t sustain 20% or 40% growth month-over-month. Traditionally in Knoxville, the market has appreciated at around 4% or 6% per month,’ said Trotta [with a straight face].”

    – Let’s see, 4-6% price appreciation per month:
    4-6%*12 mo=48-72% price appreciation per year. Not compounded. Sure.
    – Even 4-6% appreciation per year is (well) above the long-term trend. When all-in costs are considered (insurance, taxes, HOA fees, maint., etc.), RRE doesn’t even keep up w/ inflation.
    – A house is shelter, not an investment. This lesson to be learned again soon.
    – Math is hard.
    – Someone’s a lyin’.

18. A reader sent these in:

    We’re finding out now who the real fascists are – the big government/big corporatist alliance, the “progressives” who love the neocons, the “conservatives” cheering on our Fed-led kleptocracy, the little Pol Pot wannabe grifters, the hall-monitor tech giants suppressing dissent

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1443761425856434177

    Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest and High Priestess of the Process Church of the Final Judgment, blesses her followers before giving a sermon on total addressable market share early Tuesday

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1610372126053367808

    I’ve designed a new Eccles Building meeting room

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1345776136983293953

    The next FOMC meeting starts in just 28 days

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1562101346722951170

    White House spokesperson says meetings with SBF were focused on pandemic prevention

    https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1610371539417067521

    Ryan Lundquist
    @SacAppraiser
    One of the things I’ll keep talking about is the speed of the market with price change, how long it’s taking to sell, etc… Lots of conversations ahead. For about two quarters the rate of price declines has been three to four times sharper than usual. More on that later.

    https://twitter.com/SacAppraiser/status/1610360761532190720

    Imagine owning a home over $2 million and needing a grant for property taxes… the @TheOnion would probably think it was a joke…

    https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1610369247183802369

    Phoenix Realtors/Flippers trying to find bagholders

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610375186179821568

    Big part of the “housing shortage” was people who had a home pre-2019, going and buying a new home in 2020-2022 but keeping their old home as a rental. As vacancy rises and managing a rental becomes less profitable/more of a pain in the ass, we’re going to see listings 🆙

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1610390741829799942

    Where were the signs?

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1610393750064209920

    Patient Zero speaks out.
    Quote Tweet
    Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan said a US recession is the “most likely outcome” as the central bank tightens monetary policy to curb inflation https://trib.al/82l1t9d

    https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard/status/1610394091669389312

    HELOC rates above 10%, hope that’s not your emergency fund!

    https://twitter.com/FinanceHippy/status/1610299382884364291

    $TSLA missed delivery consensus. Consensus was lowered significantly in last 2 weeks of quarter and they still missed. This confirms demand is weakening and logistics self induced nightmare they created over a year ago that I have reported in recent months

    https://twitter.com/TommyThornton/status/1610020269229309953

    Texas dominates the list of cities where housing inventory has exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

    https://twitter.com/akm515/status/1610444951393034241

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Every day that passes, it becomes more and more apparent that just a few stocks have been holding up this entire market.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1610335984734064641

    Percentage of banks tightening lending standards for commercial loans:

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1610456875992027137

    CarDealershipGuy

    Updated advice: Used cars that were over 40K last March have now come down to reality (albeit, they have more room to decline). If you can buy with Cash, you’re in the drivers seat and can avoid high interest rates. New car prices are still all over the place. Depends on brand.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1610284877278056449

    Blackstone’s BREIT Gets $4 Billion From University of California
    Blackstone is getting a $4 billion cash infusion from the University of California for its massive real estate fund Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust.

    https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara/status/1610268037306777601

    Apartment vacancies are piling up as a wave of new rental buildings are built, cutting the pace of rent growth across the country ⁦@WSJ
    ⁩
    https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara/status/1610303206877265922

    In ON homes went up 68% in a span of 2 years! Areas seen 37-141% price gains across the province it would not be surprising if they fell more.

    https://twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1609983249987641345

    Benchmark home price in Ontario over the years. 📉

    https://twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1609983617836646400

    Realtor says the “billionaire row towers” are investments for overseas & local ppl, some sitting empty for years. Realtor says he thinks NYC will become more segregated.

    https://twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1610041150584520705

    “Canadians can expect most things to cost the same or more in 2023, but could see more favourable costs when it comes to housing.”

    https://twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1610187142579499009

    POWER OF SALE OF THE DAY: Sold in March 2021 for $1.052M. Sold again in March 2022 ($1.5M) occupied by the owner and in Oct 2022 ($1.1M) occupied by the renter, but BOTH deals fell thru. The lender is the real estate agent. Selling now $150K higher in December 2022 for $1.2M.

    https://twitter.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1610294954986700802

    If the 10Y yield goes to 5.25% we will probably see 8-9% mortgage rates lol

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1610297807365341184

    Been amazing to watch the meltdown

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1610329117907378179

    Lumber is telling you that your house is about to be worth a LOT less

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610315090015956993

    So many boomers pulled their place off the market in 2022 thinking they’ll get more in 2023 and they’re in for a very rude awakening when they can’t even get early 2021 prices anymore

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1610330316820086785

    Great article on what may lay ahead from Kenneth Rogoff. He rightly asserts that there are a great many risks on the horizon and that a financial crisis is well and truly a possibility.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1610124628550365187

    The Chinese mega city of Shenzhen had just 21.7k existing homes get transacted in an entire year. Shenzhen has roughly half the population of Australia, which had 490k. This is a symptom of a profoundly distorted and broken market, stimulus or not.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1610213924368154625

    This is part of why Chinese property really isnt that great. Its the worlds largest asset class, but theres little exit liquidity in many cities. Instead of seeing roughly full turnover in 5-20 years, in Shenzhen it takes 232 yrs. If significantly more people sell prices fall.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1610256632331800576

    Reuters

    ICYMI: Prices of used Teslas are falling faster than those of other carmakers and the clean-energy status symbols are languishing in dealer lots longer

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1609709809518919680

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    What Happens With Mortgage Rates in 2023? Doing analysis 12 months out is pretty much guesswork although the next 6 months is fairly obvious. Bank of Canada Raises Prime another 25 bps once or twice and stops raising. But here’s the key: NO PIVOT. Rates stay up all year

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1610263891015094275

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    January 2023 5.49% 2 – yr Fixed = $4390 monthly payment + $440. Property Tax and maybe $129 monthly condo fees = $4959. Now it’s $2K more than Rent. People just keep renting. Don’t be fooled by dumb comparisons. These mortgage rates don’t work for most First Time Buyers

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1610370592649232394

    Shop closures in UK hit highest total for five years | Financial Times
    More than 17,000 stores shut their doors in 2022, equivalent to 47 a day, according to study ⁦

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1610058305426038784

    My current view Europe will face stagflation this year
    US is facing a temporary disinflation, Inflation will bounce again
    China is facing a temporary deflation due to lockdown but stimulus is boosting industrial output
    I don’t see how inflation will collapse right now..

    https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1610075200112001027

    CarDealershipGuy

    1) Lenders are starting to SUFFER the consequences of their historical lending
    Auto delinquencies and repossessions are INCREASING.
    Repos are already up 3% since 2021.
    But what’s scary is that that number is rising rapidly.
    The “free-money” era is over and people are hurting.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1610261509921296385

    CarDealershipGuy

    2) Record-high car prices and interest rates are making traditional auto lending INEFFECTIVE
    New car affordability continues to DECLINE.
    The median # of weeks of income needed to purchase the average new car has reached a NEW record: 43.3 weeks from 42.8 weeks (Nov vs Oct 22).

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1610261518393786369

    $10B+ Multifamily REIT is going to miss big on revenue forecast for 2022. Q4 has been a disaster for forecasts with rent growth and trade outs way down. Chomp Chomp.

    https://twitter.com/CRE_LoanShark/status/1598738534973681664

    Comments on a listing that was bought a year ago, & has been on the market for 262 days. Just relisted at $1.00
    “Only serious buyers please, sellers are looking to sell for market value PRICE minimum”
    🤣 2023 is going to be cray cray…🤣

    https://twitter.com/loveurhome/status/1610313313518247938

    Phoenix rental vacancy reaches HIGHEST LEVEL since 2012.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610338713099460609

    Seeing a lot of new listings today in Phoenix, Prices are collapsing from summer, but still 50% overpriced….minimum.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1610341081539043328

    1. They sure do love TBFB over there.

    2. Updated advice: Used cars that were over 40K last March have now come down to reality (albeit, they have more room to decline). If you can buy with Cash, you’re in the drivers seat and can avoid high interest rates. New car prices are still all over the place. Depends on brand.

       Prices have not come down anywhere close to reality. It sounds like this guy is now hurting for sales.

    3. Record-high car prices and interest rates are making traditional auto lending INEFFECTIVE New car affordability continues to DECLINE.

       New car prices are going to have to greatly decline via incentives at the very least. It used to be that you could easily get 22%-25% off of a full sized truck at the end of the year. All that went away, and prices hyperinflated. It will take years to sort this mess out, but incomes did not even remotely support those price increases.

       1. I’ve been wondering about this. Many people lease their cars. Mostly 3 year leases. Lots of those are going to be expiring next year. Those 299/399 per month deals are GONE. What are they going to do??????

          I’m long popcorn.

       2. There were some pretty bodacious incentives mid 2020, when everyone was hiding under their bed.

    4. Lumber is telling you that your house is about to be worth a LOT less

       Just look at the yearly chart. Another massive speculative bubble completely implodes. During the price peaks, I remember seeing middle men appear, calling themselves “lumber brokers,” who were taking delivery of lumber from mills and then re-pricing it higher to get a cut. They were also buying it from lumberyards and re-selling it to other lumberyards. It was pure speculation.

       1. Now theres nothin left but the cryin….. and falling housing prices.

          Seminole, FL Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY As US Housing Bust Roars Through Florida

          https://www.movoto.com/seminole-fl/market-trends/

       2. Lumber is down, but construction costs overall are something like 30% higher than 2021.

          1. Trust me when I tell you… bid prices are no higher today than they were 10 years ago.

             Oldsmar, FL Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As Tampa Area Mortgage Defaults Soar As Housing Demand Plummets To 27 Year Low

             https://www.movoto.com/oldsmar-fl/market-trends/

          2. Lumber is down, but construction costs overall are something like 30% higher than 2021.

             This is my experience…in the middle of a build.

             Our lumber package is down 50% from when it was priced. But other things are WAY up – concrete, fiber cement board, metal roofing…overall I think we’ll pay less to build than if we had done this a year ago, but it’s not the huge difference we had hoped for.

             Labor is way up. Cabinets still up, windows, quartz and such just went up..drywall was supposed to have another price increase after the first of the year (haven’t heard back on that yet).

             Tradespeople are more available, though, and actively looking for work. So maybe things will improve in the next 6-9 months.

          3. Patience…CR8R formation is barely underway.

    5. White House spokesperson says meetings with SBF were focused on pandemic prevention

       I am at a loss for words. We need investigations immediately.

       1. Need a Speaker first. House adjourned again until 8PM.

          1. Is it too late to bring back Pelosi?

       2. I am at a loss for words. We need investigations immediately.

          Nothing surprises me anymore. I remember when some hospitals had baptistries. I now expect temples to Baphomet to appear. Perhaps that is where the remains of the aborted will be placed.

       3. It seems like SBF played a similar strategy to Jeffrey Epstein, insinuating himself among the rich and famous and politically connected.

          https://cointelegraph.com/news/sbf-met-with-biden-s-senior-advisors-2-months-before-ftx-collapse-report

          1. played a similar strategy

             Or was played using a similar strategy. Epstein had ties to intelligence agencies.

    6. “The “free-money” era is over and people are hurting.”

       It’ll hurt briefly, and then they’ll sink.
       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz4JSTXuP9E

19. Housing markets face tough start in 2023
    CNBC Television
    Jan 3, 2023
    CNBC’s Diana Olick on the housing market as mortgage rates are likely to head even higher.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mtyn3QSsxKE

    4:40.

20. How is the FTX aftermath working out for SBF?

    1. https://nypost.com/2023/01/04/alan-greenspan-blasts-ftx-downfall-as-purely-fraud/

    2. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-ftx-task-force-recover-missing-customer-funds-bankman-fried-2023-1

    3. US regulators warn banks over cryptocurrency risks
       Published 12 hours ago
       A Bitcoin logo is displayed on a smartphone.
       Image source, Getty Images
       By Annabelle Liang
       Business reporter

       US regulators have issued their first ever joint warning to banks over the risks associated with the cryptocurrency market.

       The watchdogs told financial institutions to be wary of potential fraud, legal uncertainty and misleading disclosures by digital asset firms.

       Banks were also cautioned over the “contagion risk” from the sector.

       It comes just two months after the collapse of trading platform FTX sent shockwaves through the crypto industry.

       In the joint statement, the US Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said they were closely monitoring the crypto activities of banking organisations.
       …
       https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64159452

    4. Reuters home
       5 minute read
       January 4, 2023 5:49 PM PST
       Last Updated 2 hours ago
       Exclusive: FTX’s former top lawyer aided U.S. authorities in Bankman-Fried case
       By Angus Berwick
       An FTX logo is seen through broken glass in this illustration taken, December 13, 2022 REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

       Jan 5 (Reuters) – FTX’s former top lawyer Daniel Friedberg has cooperated with U.S. prosecutors as they investigate the crypto firm’s collapse, a source familiar with the matter said, adding pressure on founder Sam Bankman-Fried who was arrested on criminal fraud charges last month.
       …
       https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ftxs-former-top-lawyer-aided-us-authorities-bankman-fried-case-2023-01-05/

21. “‘Those prices just shot up, and they’re still up. They’re not plummeting down, but they’re not shooting up at the same rate. They’re kinda coming back down to join those 2021 numbers, which is good. We can’t sustain 20% or 40% growth month-over-month. Traditionally in Knoxville, the market has appreciated at around 4% or 6% per month,’ said Trotta.”

    Somebody is lying

    1. Relitters® have ethics®

22. Jan 4, 2023

    NFL Star Drops Suddenly With Peter McCullough, MD, MPH

    https://live.childrenshealthdefense.org/chd-tv/shows/good-morning-chd/nfl-star-drops-suddenly-with-peter-mccullough-md-mph/

    51 minutes.

    1. Climate change is really cutting a swath.

23. It just took off like a rocket in 2020, and we’re coming back down to Earth a little bit.’”

    Rockets that reach apogee don’t come back to earth “a little bit,” Suzy. They reach terminal velocity before disintegrating upon re-entry.

24. “‘Those prices just shot up, and they’re still up. They’re not plummeting down, but they’re not shooting up at the same rate.

    Stop lying, Suzy. The data tells its own story.

25. I was a victim of FOMO during the housing market craziness and bought a house for $200,000 over the asking price.

    Die, speculator scum. You were a victim of your own greed & stupidity.

26. ‘Twelve months ago we told them everything is fine, yes you can borrow that much and everything will be fine, we’re happy, but 12 months later we are apologising to them.’”

    FBs who look to realtors or mortgage brokers for advice deserve to get schlonged. If stupidity didn’t hurt, fools would never learn.

27. ‘We are now seeing some missing their repayments, some are coming back to us saying, ‘look, can we refinance as soon as possible’

    Yeah, but yer gonna be paying more.

    ‘or some are having to sell because they may not be able to afford that property anymore’

    You can always sell.

28. The economy is strong as hell!

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/salesforce-to-cut-staff-by-10percent-close-some-offices.html

29. More layoffs!

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-lay-off-over-17-000-workers-more-than-first-planned-11672874304

    1. SalesForce.com just announced that they are laying off 10% of their workforce, about 7000.

30. ‘I bought the apartment hoping for a profit of hundreds of millions of dong in six to eight months. But I was shocked that I was forced to sell it at a loss’

    Ennio Morricone – the ecstasy of gold
    Dec 24, 2010
    Ennio Morricone conducting his own composition, “The Ecstasy of Gold” from the film, “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKFpaCMRWgU

    3:43.

    1. “You see, in this world, there are two kinds of people, my friend: those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig.”

31. Would it be better to HODL stocks, crypto, or neither at this point?

    1. Business
       Bitcoin Buckles, Bounces as Fed Signals More Aggressive Rate Hikes to Come
       Bitcoin dipped sharply with stocks before regaining ground following news that Fed has no plans to ease up.
       By Mat Di Salvo
       Jan 4, 2023
       2 min read
       The Federal Reserve continues to keep a close eye on Bitcoin and the crypto market. Image: Shutterstock
       The Federal Reserve continues to keep a close eye on Bitcoin and the crypto market.
       Image: Shutterstock

       The price of Bitcoin dipped following the release of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, which showed the central bank’s plans to continue raising interest rates.

       The biggest cryptocurrency was down nearly 1%, trading for $16,790, in the hour after the Fed dropped the announcement, according to CoinGecko. It has since made modest gains, and the asset is still up 1.2% in the past 24 hours and 0.5% in the past week. 

       Ethereum, the second largest digital asset by market cap, dropped by 1% within the hour. Ethereum tends to follow Bitcoin’s movements following announcements from the Fed. 

       The entire crypto market has been closely related to U.S. stocks since last year. When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to get inflation under control, investors generally sold U.S. equities, as well as Bitcoin and other digital assets in a bid to shift “risk.” 

       This year might be no different: stocks and almost every crypto token and coin dropped on the news that the Fed would not step down from its aggressive monetary policy. 
       …
       https://decrypt.co/118420/bitcoin-buckles-bounces-fed-rate-hikes

    2. Fed Officials Fretted That Markets Would Misread Rate Slowdown

       Central bankers remained committed to wrestling inflation lower, and wanted to make sure investors understood that message, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed.
       By Jeanna Smialek
       Jan. 4, 2023Updated 3:50 p.m. ET

       Federal Reserve officials worried that inflation could remain uncomfortably fast, minutes from their December meeting showed, and some policymakers fretted that financial markets might incorrectly interpret their decision to raise interest rates more slowly as a sign that they were giving up the fight against America’s rapid price gains.

       Inflation is beginning to slow down but remains abnormally quick: The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index climbed by 5.5 percent over the year through November, down from a 7 percent peak in June but still nearly triple the Fed’s 2 percent inflation goal. Fed officials still saw inflation as unacceptably high at their meeting last month — and worried that rapid price gains might have staying power.

       “The risks to the inflation outlook remained tilted to the upside,” Fed officials warned during their December policy meeting, minutes released on Wednesday showed. “Participants cited the possibility that price pressures could prove to be more persistent than anticipated, due to, for example, the labor market staying tight for longer than anticipated.”
       …
       https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/business/economy/inflation-markets-fed.html

    3. Did you know there was another Big Short last year?

       1. Yahoo
          Short sellers made $300 billion in 2022’s market wipeout
          Big-name companies like Meta, Tesla, and Amazon were among the most profitable short trades last year.
          Alexandra Semenova
          Wed, January 4, 2023 at 2:03 PM PST·3 min read

          A terrible year for most investors in the stock market was one to celebrate for traders who bet successfully on its decline.

          U.S. short sellers were up 31% in 2022, sitting on $300 billion in mark-to-market profits on an average short interest of $973 billion, research from data analytics firm S3 Partners showed Wednesday.

          These winnings came as equity markets closed out their worst run since the Global Financial Crisis more than a decade ago.
          …
          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-sellers-made-300-billion-in-2022-s-market-wipeout-220318980.html

32. Here’s some excellent news: Housing affordability improvements are good for containing inflation, creating a win-win situation.

    1. The Outlook
       Housing Slump Set to Give Fed an Inflation-Fighting Assist
       A slowdown in new household growth could ease prices and rents, but rising wages cause worry
       By Nick Timiraos
       Dec. 25, 2022 5:30 am ET

       The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have brought on a housing slump as severe, by some metrics, as that of 2007-09, inflicting pain on prospective buyers, homeowners, builders and other industries linked to real estate.

       For the Fed, this is a feature, not a bug: Slumping housing could help deliver the lower economic activity and inflation that the Fed wants in the coming year.  
       …
       https://www.wsj.com/articles/housing-slump-set-to-give-fed-an-inflation-fighting-assist-11671915427

33. Beginning Tuesday, students and staff in Paterson must wear masks indoors, along with students in the Passaic School District, which reinstated the policy before winter vacation.

    https://www.fox5ny.com/news/mask-mandates-return-at-several-nj-school-districts

34. Try not to catch yourself a falling knife believing REIC predictions that housing prices will soon resume their upward trajectory after a shallow dip.

    1. Housing
       Published January 3, 2023 6:41pm EST
       US home price gains fall sharply in November as rising mortgage rates cool housing market
       Housing prices fall in November as mortgage rates sap demand
       By Megan Henney FOXBusiness

       Home prices declined sharply in November as higher rising mortgage rates continued to sap demand from the housing market.

       Prices in November increased 8.6% from the year-ago period, the smallest gain in two years, according to new data published on Tuesday by CoreLogic. 

       On a monthly basis, prices actually dropped 0.2% in November.

       Prices are now about 2.5% below their spring 2022 peak and are expected to continue falling this year, eventually tumbling into negative territory…

       https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-price-gains-fall-sharply-november-rising-mortgage-rates-cool-housing-market

35. Does it seem like banking regulators are overworrying cryptocurrency risk?

    Certainly no sensible US banker would have gotten wrapped up in that Ponzi scheme…would the they!?

    1. Federal Reserve, top bank regulators flag ‘significant’ worries over crypto assets
       Jennifer Schonberger
       Tue, January 3, 2023 at 12:24 PM PST·3 min read

       The Federal Reserve, FDIC, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued a joint statement on Tuesday warning about “significant” risks crypto assets may pose to the broader banking system.

       “It is important that risks related to the crypto-asset sector that cannot be mitigated or controlled do not migrate to the banking system,” the agencies said in a joint statement.

       “Given the significant risks highlighted by recent failures of several large crypto-asset companies, the agencies continue to take a careful and cautious approach related to current or proposed crypto-asset-related activities and exposures at each banking organization.”

       Regulators are warning banks about a long laundry list of risks when it comes to crypto, including fraud, volatility, poor risk management, and contagion within the crypto sector.

       The agencies also flagged legal uncertainties when it comes to redemptions, ownership rights, and custody practices for crypto assets.
       …
       https://news.yahoo.com/federal-reserve-top-bank-regulators-flag-significant-worries-over-crypto-assets

       1. The problem appears to be that cryptocurrency firms generate significant money flows, which attract investment bankers like sh!t attracts flies.

          1. Long-time readers may recall how Megabank, Inc pretended to have no exposure to the housing crash or the suborime implosion during the runup to the fall 2008 financial crisis. By the time Lehman Brothers collapsed in fall 2008, it was widely understood that Wall Street was heavily exposed.

             Hopefully present day Wall Street has no similar systemically risky connections to cryptocurrencies.

36. Is it safe to say at this point that the Fed has successfully broken the back of inflation?

    1. The Financial Times
       International Monetary Fund
       US inflation has not ‘turned the corner yet’, top IMF official warns
       Fund’s second-in-command urges Fed to ‘stay the course’ on rate rises this year
       Gita Gopinath, deputy managing director of the IMF, said there is a ‘very narrow path’ for the US to avoid a recession this year
       Colby Smith in Washington
       3 hours ago

       Inflation in the US has not “turned the corner yet” and it is too early for the Federal Reserve to declare victory in its fight against soaring prices, a top IMF official has warned.

       In an interview with the Financial Times Gita Gopinath, the fund’s second-in-command, urged the US central bank to press ahead with rate rises this year despite a recent moderation in headline inflation following one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in the Fed’s history.

       “If you see the indicators in the labour market and if you look at very sticky components of inflation like services inflation, I think it’s clear that we haven’t turned the corner yet on inflation,” she said, adding that the fund’s advice to the Fed was to “stay the course”.

       The comments from the fund’s deputy managing director come after a flurry of data suggested inflation in the US, Europe and other economies might have peaked, as energy prices fall from recent highs and the cost of goods such as home appliances and used cars starts to decline.

       Chief among Gopinath’s concerns is the continued resilience of the US labour market, which on average is adding roughly 400,000 jobs each month. The unemployment rate still hovers near historic lows and an acute worker shortage has helped to push wage increases to a level that is far too high for the Fed to hit its 2 per cent inflation target.

       Gopinath said it was “important” for the central bank to “maintain restrictive monetary policy” until there was a “very definite, durable decline in inflation” that was evident in wages and sectors not related to food or energy.

       Despite fears among some economists and leftwing politicians that the Fed has already raised rates too aggressively, Gopinath said it was “hard” to argue that officials had tightened too much.
       …

    2. Bites
       Michael Burry: ‘U.S. in recession by any definition,’ inflation to see ‘another spike’ as Fed cuts rates
       Anna Golubova Wednesday
       January 04, 2023 15:07
       Kitco News

       (Kitco News) The U.S. is already in a recession “by any definition,” and even though inflation might have peaked, for now, there will be another spike as the Federal Reserve starts to cut rates again, warned “The Big Short” investor Michael Burry.

       Scion Asset Management founder’s message comes as markets are trying to price in recession odds for the new year.

       “The US [is] in recession by any definition,” Burry tweeted over the weekend.

       But an economic slowdown does not guarantee that the inflation problem that the Fed has been busy battling for all of 2022 is over, he added.

       “Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle. We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023,” Burry said. “Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike.”
       …
       https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-04/Michael-Burry-U-S-in-recession-by-any-definition-inflation-to-see-another-spike-as-Fed-cuts-rates.html

    3. The Financial Times
       Federal Reserve
       Fed wants ‘more evidence’ of easing inflation and backs fresh rate rises
       Minutes from December meeting show US central bank officials intend to keep squeezing economy
       The Federal Reserve building in Washington
       According to the most recent ‘dot plot’ of individual interest rate projections, most Fed officials see the federal funds rate peaking between 5% and 5.25%
       Colby Smith in Washington yesterday

       Federal Reserve officials warned they would need to see “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation before they are convinced that price pressures are under control as they backed fresh rate rises this year, according to an account of their most recent meeting.

       Minutes from the December gathering, when the US central bank raised its benchmark rate by half a percentage point, showed the Fed intends to continue squeezing the economy to try to tackle price pressures, which they warned could “prove to be more persistent than anticipated”.

       The half-point rise ended a months-long string of 0.75 percentage point increases and lifted the target range of the federal funds rate to between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent.

       The decision in December followed fresh evidence that inflation appeared to have peaked as energy prices and those tied to the goods sector have retreated, developments which participants described as “welcome”.

       “Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2 per cent, which was likely to take some time,” the minutes, released on Wednesday, said, referring to the Fed’s inflation target.

       The minutes also indicated that officials are attuned to how their policy communications are being digested by investors and others across Wall Street. In the weeks leading up to the December meeting, financial conditions had loosened as traders in fed funds futures wagered the Fed would back off its tightening campaign sooner than officials have signalled.
       …

       1. I hear the Fed’s message to Wall Street loud and clear:

          “Moh CR8R”

37. Real Estate
    Mortgage demand plunges 13.2% to end 2022, as interest rates head higher again
    Published Wed, Jan 4 2023 7:00 AM EST
    Updated Wed, Jan 4 2023 7:34 AM EST
    Diana Olick

    Key Points
    – Mortgage application volume was down 13.2% at the end of last week from two weeks earlier.
    – The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.58% from 6.34% two weeks prior.
    – At the end of 2021, the rate was 3.33%.
    …
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/mortgage-demand-plunges-interest-rates-rise.html

38. Is it safe to say the era of negative interest rates is history?

    1. The Financial Times
       Capital markets
       Negative-yielding debt wiped out by Japan central bank’s policy shift
       Global market value of such bonds falls to zero for first time since 2010
       Signage outside the headquarters of the Bank of Japan in Tokyo
       The Bank of Japan’s move last month to relax its policy of pinning long-term yields close to zero pushed up yields in the vast Japanese government bond market
       Tommy Stubbington 2 hours ago

       The global stock of negative-yielding bonds has dwindled to zero after last month’s unexpected policy shift by the Bank of Japan undermined the last bastion of sub-zero yields.

       Negative yields — which occur when bond prices climb so high that buyers holding them to maturity are guaranteed to lose money — engulfed a broad swath of global fixed-income markets in recent years, with the market value of debt trading at a yield below zero soaring above $18tn in late 2020 after central banks slashed interest rates and launched huge bond-buying programmes in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

       But last year’s abrupt end to the era of easy monetary policy sparked a historic bond sell-off that rapidly shrank the pile, as central banks in the eurozone and Switzerland brought down the curtain on years of negative interest rates.
       …

       1. It seems like a major earthquake hit the global financial system, with the aftershocks yet to be felt.

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