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Investors Swimming Naked And Carrying Big Liabilities

A report from the Pahrump Valley Times in Nevada. “Pahrump home sales and prices slid slightly in the last two months of 2022, according to data released by Las Vegas Realtors. December 2022 was a ‘bust’ compared to the ‘bang’ that was December 2021 when 133 homes sold in Pahrump at a median price of $315,000. While home prices have seen an 8.3 percent decline in Pahrump since then. ‘People should know that these things are cyclical and that the sky is not falling,’ said 2023 LVR President Lee Barrett. ‘With prices leveling off and more homes available for sale, we’re seeing a more balanced market that makes things easier for buyers.'”

The Daily Republic in South Dakota. “At the start of 2022, mortgage interest rates were hovering around 3% and homes were flying off the market in Mitchell. Cory Marek, a local mortgage loan officer at Plains Commerce Bank, was swamped in the early half of last year as home buyers seized on low interest rates. In less than a year, Marek said it went from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. ‘It’s actually a good time to buy. People were paying $20,000 to $30,000 — well over what prices of homes were listed at,’ Marek said of the housing market in 2021 when interest rates were as low as 2.6% at one point. ‘While prices are dropping a bit, they aren’t going to go down too much anytime soon here because there is just no inventory.'”

Marquette WLUC in Michigan. “Select Realty Associate Broker Don Schinella says buyers will be able to take more time with a less competitive market. ‘You are not going to see competitive bidding as we did before,’ Schinella said. ‘You won’t see buyers putting in offers without inspections and you may even see sellers paying for some of the buyer’s closing costs. We are kind of getting back to normal. The last six months the prices did decrease but they didn’t decrease enough to erase all of the gains that they have had over the last two years,’ Schinella said.”

Houston Public Media in Texas “The winning streak for Houston’s housing market has ended abruptly as local real estate experts look for better news in 2023. Home prices were mostly unchanged in 2022, down only slightly compared to 2021. ‘We didn’t have those huge bubbles like some of the other parts of the west and the east did where they came down really hard,’ HAR Chair Cathy Trevino said. ‘Houston always has taken a gradual incline in sales prices and so I foresee it to go down the same way. It’s going to gradually go down.'”

The San Francisco Business Times in California. “It was a cold December in Bay Area real estate as home prices continued to slump across the region. Regionally, the median home sales price dropped 7% compared with December 2021, according to Compass, and sales volume was down 41% compared with the same period in 2021. Luxury home sales ($3 million plus) were down 60% and ultra luxury home sales ($5 million plus) were down 69%. The average days on the market for homes increased to 44 days last month compared with 31 days in December 2021, and 31% of homes sold over asking, but that number was also down from 51% in December 2021 and 80% from its peak last April.”

“Coldwell Banker agent Joel Goodrich said he foresees that 2023 will probably be somewhat as soft as the latter half of 2022, noting that average price per square foot is down 10-12% in the core luxury areas such as Pacific Heights and 15-20% in the South of Market and South Beach areas. ‘The next two years may be flat to a somewhat softer market as we go through this cycle. Areas such as Pacific Heights, Sea Cliff, Presidio Heights, Russian Hill, Nob Hill as well as the newer luxury markets in Noe Valley/Upper Market will be hit to a lesser extent,’ said Goodrich.”

From Market Watch. “Potential home buyers are more cautious than they were in the middle of last year thanks to higher mortgage rates, ‘persistent’ inflation and an ‘uncertain economy,’ KB Home said Tuesday as it reported a quarterly miss. Market conditions ‘remain challenging,’ KB Home Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger said. That led the home builder to focus on its backlog of unsold homes and on protecting margins, he said. The CEO also left the door open for possible price cuts.”

“‘Depending on market dynamics and backlog levels in each community, we are getting more aggressive with our pricing ahead of the spring selling season, in order to generate new orders,’ Mezger said. Gross orders for the quarter hit 2,169 units, down 47% on-year.Cancellation rates as a percentage of gross orders jumped 68%, compared to 13% a year ago.”

The Nebraska Examiner. “A judge approved an injunction Tuesday that freezes most assets of a financial adviser involved in one of the largest cases of bank fraud in state history. However, Jesse Hill of Hickman and his wife, under the order, will be able to access two personal banking accounts, and were given permission to obtain a home equity loan to help paying legal and living expenses. The pair, according to state banking officials, made false claims and used fabricated financial statements to obtain $20 million in loans from 14 banks from March 2021 through September 2022. Hill was a partner with Lincoln businessman Aaron Marshbank, who was found dead of a suspected suicide on Nov. 2.”

“Financial institutions in Nebraska and Iowa and Louisiana are seeking repayment of more than $40 million in loans issued to Marshbanks for purchasing and rehabilitating rental properties. Michael Kramer, a partner with Marshbanks in a limited liability company called MKAM, filed a request Monday seeking permission from the court to buy out Marshbanks’ half-interest in 21 properties in Omaha and Lincoln that the company planned to ‘flip.’ The amount of equity was so low, according to court records, because Marshbanks ‘neglected some properties,’ overborrowed on some properties and then took some proceeds from refinanced loan for personal use ‘… all the while without accounting or informing Mr. Kramer of the draining the equity of the LLC.”

Global News in Canada. “Some people have seen a few ‘court-ordered sales’ on homes located in the Okanagan, with the posting showing a half-finished home and the title saying ‘sold as is.’ There are two homes on Boucherie Road, in West Kelowna, that are listed but only 60 per cent complete. The sale is for the properties as-is and there are a number of conditions that buyers would have to meet to move in.”

“You may see foreclosures in other listings but this is different said real estate agent Drew Irvine. ‘What it means is that the builder has likely run out of funding or his costs have now exceeded what the expected sale price would be,’ said Irvine. Kelowna Mortgage Broker Michelle Scheibel, says it is rare to find a home that is only 60 per cent complete. Not only that but often it would be tough to secure a loan or mortgage from a bank, as lenders prefer a home to be at least 97 to 98 per cent complete.”

“‘The reason why, is if they got stuck with that property – the client couldn’t pay for the mortgage for some reason – and the (lenders) are stuck in a foreclosure situation trying to sell that property, it would be very difficult,’ said Scheibel.”

Stuff New Zealand. “Many property investors are playing the wait and see game for the next election before deciding whether to sell their properties, property investor and coach Michael Burge​ says. A Labour victory would change the mentality of many from trying to keep the properties they had, to realising they had to sell, Burge said. This was particularly true for those who took on big debts or were running properties at a loss and gambling on capital gains, because their ability to deduct mortgage interest payments from rental earnings was pivotal to their ability to afford to keep their rentals.”

“‘If Labour get back in, I think the mentality will change to ‘holy shit, this is real now, the mortgage interest deductibility is here to stay – and we still have high interest rates.’ Burge, who owns 17 properties, said if the tide went out, a lot of property investors would be discovered to be swimming naked, and carrying big liabilities they could not afford to service.”

“Some in the industry had not yet woken up to the new reality. Burge said he was shocked to listen to some commentators, financial advisers, and podcasters who recommended property purchases that would lose the investor hundreds per week. ‘I couldn’t believe it. I hear of people buying new builds which are hundreds of dollars a week cash flow negative from day one, and that’s with interest deductibility,’ he said. ‘I think that’s insanity. I think that’s a recipe for people not being able to hold the properties.'”

“He said the downturn began with the largest centres like Auckland and Wellington, but was now hitting his market as well. ‘You’re seeing stuff sit for ages, and stuff being listed at prices that we probably haven’t seen for two years – maybe six or so months into Covid. ‘Some of it’s not quite back to pre-Covid levels, but some of it’s getting pretty close,’ he said.”

From Bloomberg. “South Korea’s largest-ever apartment complex risks turning from national milestone into financial millstone amid fears that sluggish sales might herald the kind of property slump that sends shockwaves through the economy and credit markets. The vast Dunchon project in Seoul is designed to accommodate more than 10,000 households and has been one of the most anticipated developments in a country that heavily favors apartments. But it has run up against a looming glut of new homes and a string of interest-rate hikes by the Bank of Korea that has pushed up borrowing costs and turned buyers wary.”

“‘Markets see Dunchon as an inflection point,’ said Ahn Jae-kyun, a fixed-income analyst at Shinhan Securities. ‘The bottom line is whether it will threaten construction firms. This all focuses attention on the BOK’s decision.’ ‘As rates rise and the economy deteriorates, there’s great potential corporate defaults will spike,’ said Ju Hyeon, president of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade. ‘It’s highly possible that household debt will become the biggest risk factor in the near term.'”

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This Post Has 66 Comments

  1. ‘At the start of 2022, mortgage interest rates were hovering around 3% and homes were flying off the market in Mitchell. Cory Marek, a local mortgage loan officer at Plains Commerce Bank, was swamped in the early half of last year as home buyers seized on low interest rates. In less than a year, Marek said it went from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. ‘It’s actually a good time to buy. People were paying $20,000 to $30,000 — well over what prices of homes were listed at’

    The big screw up was letting these little sh$tholes run wild.

  2. ‘He said the downturn began with the largest centres like Auckland and Wellington, but was now hitting his market as well. ‘You’re seeing stuff sit for ages, and stuff being listed at prices that we probably haven’t seen for two years – maybe six or so months into Covid. ‘Some of it’s not quite back to pre-Covid levels, but some of it’s getting pretty close’

    This describing CCP virus as some sort of financial episode is tiring, but if Mike is right that means they’ve got 40% off already.

    1. Covid is the greatest FRAUD of my lifetime.

      And that’s just speaking to the financial and economic fallout, the medical genocide aspect of the taxpayer funded gain of function research and the poison mRNA injections is a whole other discussion.

      Remember 2019 when we had a mostly functioning economy?

      1. Japan, Italy, and some other Countries are launching criminal investigations into the fake vaccine ,as well as the State of Florida.
        I just heard that they gave the Covid shot to a Ape in the zoo, and the poor ape died.
        So, the terrorists cult is going to get together in Davos for their annual plotting on One World Order.
        They have infiltrated Governments and agencies and institutions globally along with fake news with censorship.
        Just listen to them talk about what they plan for the populations of the World and the agendas are pure evil and insane.
        Before its to late, they need investigations into the fake science of Climate Change
        that they plan to use as a weapon of mass destruction, , just like the Covid
        attack and the fake vaccines.
        The United Nations , the CCP and the WEF, World Banks , guys like Bill Gates and Soros, Elites , Big Pharmaceutical, and
        bought off politicians, that are acting in collusion on this takeover…..
        China isn’t stopping energy and they refused the Western fake vaccine, ,yet Klaus Schwab said China was the model until China population revolted against their lockdowns.
        So, the narratives are breaking down but employ plan B, C and D.they will . .
        They actually think they can kill and injure ,deprive, freeze and starve and get away with it. Like humans isn’t going to notice this attack.

        1. So, the terrorists cult is going to get together in Davos for their annual plotting on One World Order.

          Remember this: they believe that they own the world, and that includes you and me. We are chattel to them.

      2. Covid is the greatest FRAUD of my lifetime

        “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

        ~Rahm Emanuel

        September 18, 2022 – ““The pandemic is over,” Biden told Scott Pelley of CBS as they walked around the Detroit Auto Show last week.”

        January 11, 2023 – Biden administration extends COVID-19 public health emergency yet again

        1. public health emergency

          which is absolutely necessary as long as the drugs are still being sold, to protect the profits.

          1. public health emergency

            If it ceases to be an emergency, how do you then justify the continuing use under EUA?

  3. 𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻, 𝗧𝗫 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟮% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗮𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗮𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿

    https://www.movoto.com/allen-tx/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘋𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥, “𝘎𝘦𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘣𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘨𝘪𝘵𝘴.”

  4. ‘It was a cold December in Bay Area real estate as home prices continued to slump across the region. Regionally, the median home sales price dropped 7% compared with December 2021’

    A literal sh$thole rolls over YOY.

    ‘he foresees that 2023 will probably be somewhat as soft as the latter half of 2022, noting that average price per square foot is down 10-12% in the core luxury areas such as Pacific Heights and 15-20% in the South of Market and South Beach areas’

    Good thing everybody put 30% down.

  5. ‘we are getting more aggressive with our pricing ahead of the spring selling season, in order to generate new orders’

    ‘Gross orders for the quarter hit 2,169 units, down 47% on-year.Cancellation rates as a percentage of gross orders jumped 68%, compared to 13% a year ago’

    What bizness are you in Jeff? Pretending to sell shacks, cancelled, sell them again, cancelled again?

    1. Wall street, in anticipation of a Fed pivot is pushing builder stocks higher. It would interesting to see when Fed rates go above 5%, whether the builder CEOs will say the same rosy things about cancellation rates, price reduction etc.

        1. the FED beat it

          I hadn’t heard. Does this mean the rate of price increases has declined, so therefore prices are not rising anymore? People are dumb enough that some might believe it for a minute. Especially those who think the price of eggs is “inflation”.

          Here the Mennonites have beat that kind of inflation. Their brown eggs are $1.25 less than factory eggs at the regular grocery.

  6. ‘Financial institutions in Nebraska and Iowa and Louisiana are seeking repayment of more than $40 million in loans issued to Marshbanks for purchasing and rehabilitating rental properties. Michael Kramer, a partner with Marshbanks in a limited liability company called MKAM, filed a request Monday seeking permission from the court to buy out Marshbanks’ half-interest in 21 properties in Omaha and Lincoln that the company planned to ‘flip.’ The amount of equity was so low, according to court records, because Marshbanks ‘neglected some properties,’ overborrowed on some properties and then took some proceeds from refinanced loan for personal use ‘

    Sound lending!

  7. ‘You may see foreclosures in other listings but this is different said real estate agent Drew Irvine. ‘What it means is that the builder has likely run out of funding or his costs have now exceeded what the expected sale price would be’

    Are we there yet?

  8. A reader sent these in:

    The housing market in August 2022

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1612974783141904384

    This week El-Erian is pounding the table warning investors to get out of these distorted markets. Unheard of for a Wall Street economist. Bulls, ignore the ravings of a mad man. Contrarian theory tells you to double down on rigged markets.

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1613349065957203968

    “This time will be different”

    https://twitter.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1613351802669355014

    Coming to an @AirBnB near you…

    https://twitter.com/k_fayrie/status/1612994535717761024

    Given this truth, what is even more curious: rental vacancy rates are rising and rents are dropping.

    It’s almost like the “housing shortage” was just a “listing shortage”
    Quote Tweet In my Bay Area neighborhood rent for the average single family home is $3000-3500 a month. The mortgage for the same type of place is $5000+ a month and that’s factoring in 20 percent down. The math to buy just doesn’t make sense anymore.

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1613012781808197636

    This was at a NAR meetup 😂

    https://twitter.com/Thurman_Merman1/status/1613005445270052866

    KB Home didn’t give 2023 gross margin guide. Wants to see what happens with the spring season first. Too much uncertainty.

    https://twitter.com/TraceyRyniec/status/1613305457216471041

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Home builder construction costs finally cooling. Market commentary from our December survey of builders signals relief on the horizon…
    #SanDiego builder: “Since our production is nearly 6 months old, the costs are embedded. We certainly think better days are ahead. They had better be.”

    https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1613238700498124800

    Move over, #AirBnb. Hotels are having a moment

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1613216296040296448

    Just spoke with a very smart analyst who thinks the Fed will to 7% or even 8%.

    https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status/1613268664664616962

    Lucky Lopez

    Dealerships are hoping Tax Season will bail them out of their overpriced inventory. The bad new is 2023 Tax Season will be worse then the previous 10yrs

    https://twitter.com/AutomotiveLife1/status/1613334376154279936

    Hahhahahahahhahaha

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1613362448656125953

    CarDealershipGuy

    People think you’re broke if you have a:
    $10K 🚙
    $1M net worth
    But people think you’re rich if you have a:
    $80K 🚗
    $10K net worth

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1613158208381526022

    Remember the prominent bank of mom & dad via HELOC? Most of these were left as variable loans and the squeeze is officially on. There will be surplus inventory coming to the market because of this.

    https://twitter.com/VasCityEstates/status/1612983190217699328

    as per multiple reports released today, the city of vaughan is looking at a 77% – 88% increase in property taxes.

    https://twitter.com/d_demelis/status/1612899037723721728

    John Pasalis

    Devastating! This is going to ruin thousands of investors who are going to see the taxes go up on all their investment condos just as their mortgage payments are ⬆️ I’d like to organize a protest at City Hall, who’s with me😉

    https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1612878490378047489

    Nice. Ontario’s planned property tax hikes to pay for developer subsidies:
    – Toronto: 6%
    – Aurora: +6%
    – Brampton: +9%
    – Mississauga: +10%
    – New Market: +5-15%
    – Stouffville: +20%
    – Vaughan: +77-88%
    – East Gwillimbury: +100%

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1612877721654132738

    We need to seriously consider destroying the concept of home equity appreciation in Canada. 🏡 Your home should not be your retirement plan – because in our economy, that means renters have no way to ever retire. 💲 In Japan, homes depreciate like cars. 🚗

    https://twitter.com/rCanadaHousing/status/1612814861536317443

    John Pasalis

    The big difference between 20 years ago & today is that back then new homes were built for and bought by families. Today new homes are built for and bought by investors and family sized homes aren’t as profitable. So we’re not building homes for families.

    https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/1612870937531060224

    UK mortgage & remortgage approvals are unsurprisingly falling off a cliff…

    https://twitter.com/Lvieweconomics/status/1610594216387792896

    1. “The big difference between 20 years ago & today is that back then new homes were built for and bought by families. Today new homes are built for and bought by investors and family sized homes aren’t as profitable. So we’re not building homes for families.”

      The average sized home has been increasing for most of the past 20 years. Gee, I wonder what else has been going on for the past 20 years that might explain it?

      1. I grew up in a 2,000 square foot house. There were eight of us in my family.

        I know people with half the family who have two and three times the house. Why?

        3. For a while I lived in Asia in a tiny space. I now live in America, and while my current space is large I want more.

          I want more space because the two income-earners in my household both work from home, and we cannot reasonably perform our jobs at a shared kitchen table. I have a workstation that I do not want to dissemble and reassemble daily.

          Americans are spoiled, but the country is also gigantic and mostly empty.

          I will never apologize for wanting more and better.

    2. “💲 In Japan, homes depreciate like cars.”

      That will happen when your country won’t accept immigrants and the citizens aren’t procreating.

  9. “You may see foreclosures in other listings but this is different said real estate agent Drew Irvine. ‘What it means is that the builder has likely run out of funding or his costs have now exceeded what the expected sale price would be,’ said Irvine.

    Another Realtor guessing.

    Gotta love how the the least skilled indivduals on the planet that are incapable of providing any value to an employer continue to offer investment advice and critique events in businessses they no nothing about.

    Silver Spring, MD Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As Northern Viriginia Housing Market Implodes

    https://www.movoto.com/silver-spring-md/market-trends/

    1. That and they get quoted by a corrupt and complicit media as though they are neutral experts instead of salesmen.

  10. What will investors who leveraged up in recent years to buy US residential real estate, solely for capital gains potential, do with their underwater HODLings?

    Do lenders issue margin calls on RE?

    1. Climatewire
      Climate Change
      $35 Billion Worth of Real Estate Could Be Underwater by 2050

      Local governments in coastal states will lose billions of dollars in local tax revenue as rising seas claim developed land

      By Thomas Frank, E&E News on September 9, 2022

      The Louisiana Highway 1 Bridge, also known as the Gateway to the Gulf Expressway, rises above the marshland and coastal waters on August 25, 2019 in Leeville, Louisiana. The state of Louisiana erected the 19-mile long elevated roadway in 2009 after flooding become a constant issue on old Louisiana Highway 1 during storms and high tides. Credit: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

      CLIMATEWIRE | Millions of acres of coastal land will be in flood zones by midcentury, potentially costing communities huge sums in lost property taxes as developed land becomes uninhabitable, an analysis released Thursday shows.

      Research nonprofit Climate Central conducted a unique study of sea-level rise, projecting the amount of real estate, buildings and tax revenue that hundreds of coastal counties will lose as tides encroach on developed areas. It found that an estimated 4.3 million acres — an area nearly the size of Connecticut — will be underwater by 2050, including $35 billion worth of real estate.

      “Higher flood waters are reaching further inland, flooding properties and buildings that have never flooded before,” Climate Central researchers wrote.
      …
      https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/35-billion-worth-of-real-estate-could-be-underwater-by-2050/#

        1. This reminds me. Over 20 years ago I read that if sea levels went up 1 foot, the Texas gulf coast would recede 150 miles inland. Last heard it’s all still there.

          1. Climate change will be used as the reason why The Great Reset and One World Government are imperative. Woke nations will fall into line and their governments will officially surrender all sovereignty to the WEF’s proxy, whatever it ends up being called. Third world nations that resist will be “persuaded”, possibly at gunpoint.

            Once that is accomplished, then we will be told that drastic and rapid depopulation is the only way to save the world.

          2. Sea levels are rising so gradually that it’s very difficult for someone without specialized scientific expertise to notice it.

          4. specialized scientific expertise

            That’s called money grants.

            Actually, it is pretty easy to measure how sea levels have risen over the past millennia. Pointing to that only distracts from me having to give up cooking with gas though.

          5. There is a small rock formation off the shoreline of Cambria California moonstone beach about 1/2 mile or less out. I have watched that same formation get covered with waves at high tide then back a foot or two above the sea during low tide. Been seeing this since 1960’s. I guess with rising oceans the sea floor rises too?

    2. Real Estate
      Here’s How Many Homeowners Could Be Stuck With ‘Underwater’ Mortgages in 2023
      By: Sarah Hansen
      Published: Dec 19, 2022 4 min read
      Photo collage of a suburban house underwater in the ocean
      Money; Shutterstock

      Home values are likely to fall next year, and some recent buyers may find themselves in the predicament of being underwater on their mortgages. But experts say most homeowners probably don’t need to worry too much.

      A new analysis from real estate brokerage Redfin finds that if home values fall by its forecasted rate of 4% by the end of 2023, just 3.4% of homeowners who bought between January 2021 and September 2022 will owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth — aka be underwater.

      Even if that 4% decline happens, the typical home purchased over the last two years will actually have gained $27,000 in value. Redfin also found that home prices would need to fall by 10% or more in 2023 for the typical home purchased over the past two years to lose value — a scenario it describes as “highly unlikely.”
      …
      https://money.com/homes-owners-underwater-mortgages-2023/

      2. Get boosted!

        The latest covid XBB.1.5 variant says, “You can roll-up ‘yer sleeve, but I’ll still git ‘ya!” 🙂

  13. ok i was trying to be funny and …..In 2021, the FAA changed the wording for the acronym from — for this NOTAM system from Notice to Airmen to Notice to Air Missions, ‘which is inclusive of all aviators and missions.’ But they never actually fixed the system and we have this antiquated air transportation system in this country.

    https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2023/01/12/gop-rep-barry-moore-we-renamed-air-safety-system-to-be-inclusive-but-didnt-fix-it-we-go-woke-we-go-broke/

    1. To be fair, this is not something that can be easily or quickly upgraded or replaced. That said, they haven’t said anything about having started to do that.

    2. Ok – so it wasn’t just me that had a WTF moment when I read an article mentioning that yesterday.

      Surprised it wasn’t NOTALGBTQ+$%!*& or NOTAX

  14. ‘People should know that these things are cyclical and that the sky is not falling,’

    Relitters never mention that when prices are skyrocketing at unprecedented rates of appreciation. Instead, the mantra is “shortage” and “buy now or get priced out forever.”

    The “cyclical” story only gets trotted out when prices are CR8Ring and inventories are piling up with no bottom in sight and no buyers in the market.

  16. “While prices are dropping a bit, they aren’t going to go down too much anytime soon here because there is just no inventory.”

    …yet

  17. You will have no EGGS.

    You will buy no eggs, you will eat no eggs. Eggs are only for the “elite” now stupid peasant.

    1. Bloomberg
      Biggest Ever Bear-Market Bounces Create Unending Pain for Shorts
      Lu Wang
      Tue, January 10, 2023 at 1:38 PM PST·3 min read

      (Bloomberg) — A disaster for bulls, the yearlong tumble in American stocks has in some respects been almost as rough for the other side of the trade.

      The hardships of being short were made vivid Tuesday as a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of most-hated stocks climbed more than 4%, saddling bears with losses. While the S&P 500 have alternated between gains and losses into 2023, each up day overpowered the previous down session, resulting in an overall gain that marked the market’s best start to a year since 2019.

      Such a bounce, landing right after hedge funds spent December raising bearish positions and retail traders dumped stocks in droves, has been a prescription for pain playing out over the past 12 months. Skeptics had their conviction tested by bear-market rallies on a scale almost without precedents. While the S&P 500 saw far fewer up days than is normal in 2022, when the index did manage to rebound, it did so violently. Rising a median 1.15%, the index’s increase on positive sessions was the largest since 1938.

      “There’s a FOMO element here with investors who are worried about being caught offsides if equities embark on a durable rally,” said Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors. “Everyone knows bear market rallies are common, but it can be hard for some to remember that in the moment.”
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-ever-bear-market-bounces-213824211.html

    2. You needn’t fear the deepest yield curve inversion since the early 1980s, when inflation and interest rates shot up to double digit levels and the US economy endured a double dip recession.

      My expert sources have assured me that even though an inverted yield curve has been a highly reliable leading indicator of recessions going back to WWII, this time is different, and a soft landing is certain to occur.

      1. A closely watched indicator of a coming recession is blaring its loudest warning in over 40 years
        Jennifer Sor
        Jan 9, 2023, 6:27 AM
        Trader NYSE
        A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

        – The Treasury yield curve on the 2 and 10 year notes is at its deepest inversion in over 40 years.
        – The inverted yield curve is a notorious predictor of a recession, and preceded the downturns of 1990, 2001, and 2008.
        – That means it’s hard to argue stocks will have strong performance in the near-term, DataTrek said in a note.

        The difference between the yield on the 2 and 10-year Treasury notes is the widest its been in about four decades, flashing a notorious warning of a looming recession and a possible sign of more pain to come for stocks, DataTrek said in a note on Monday. 

        The the 2-year yield has surpassed the yield on the 10-year note for almost a year now, and that inversion has only deepened recently. The 2-year was trading at a yield of 4.241% Monday, compared to a yield of 3.578% on the 10-year. 

        It’s the steepest inversion since the early 1980s, and potential grim omen for the economy, as an inverted yield curve has been a notoriously reliable indicator of a recession in the near-term. 

        Recession fears have been elevated since the Federal Reserve aggressively tightened policy last year to rein in inflation, raising interest rates by 425-basis-points in 2022. Prices have cooled slightly from highs last summer, but commentators fear that raising rates past their current level could overtighten the economy into a recession.
        …
        https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-warning-economic-outlook-inverted-yield-curve-fed-rate-hike-2023-1

      2. The Financial Times
        Markets
        Markets boosted by rising hopes of soft landing for US and eurozone economies
        European stocks enjoy best opening week for more than a decade despite uptick in core inflation
        A glass screen displays company trading movements at the entrance to the Euronext NV Paris stock exchange in Paris
        The Euronext NV Paris stock exchange. Central bankers worry that inflation may stay around 4-5 per cent on both sides of the Atlantic
        Chris Giles and George Steer in London and Colby Smith in Washington January 6 2023

        Rising economic optimism buoyed stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic on Friday, after eurozone inflation figures and US jobs data boosted hopes of a soft landing this year.

        But economists warned that while a recent big fall in energy prices has bolstered prospects for 2023, underlying inflation would maintain pressure on central banks to raise interest rates further to keep price rises under control.

        Philip Rush, founder of consultancy Heteronomics, said: “Inflation won’t be able to sustainably return to the target until this core problem is conquered.”

        The headline eurozone inflation figures for December — which fell back into single digits — helped European equities to their best performance in the opening week of the year since 2009 as investors discarded some of their end-of-year gloom.

        Goldman Sachs noted that lower wholesale natural gas prices, down over 75 per cent from their peak in Europe, would “boost real incomes; help to push down inflation; and improve government budgets”. It added a further export boost would come from the end of China’s zero-Covid policy.
        …

      1. Stock Market Today
        Dow Jones Futures Fall After S&P 500 Hits Resistance; JPMorgan, UnitedHealth Earnings On Tap
        ED CARSON 10:10 PM ET 01/12/2023

        Dow Jones futures fell slightly overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Big earnings from JPMorgan, Bank of America, UnitedHealth, Delta Air Lines and more are on tap Friday morning.
        …
        https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/down-jones-futures-s-and-p-500-hits-resistance-jpmorgan-unitedhealth-earnings/

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