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There’s Nothing Quite As Impactful On A Marketplace As Too Many People Who Have To Sell

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “‘When you have a rise and increase in interest rates like we’ve had, that is a big problem for housing. Interest rates are like the mother’s milk of housing,’ Pulte Capital CEO Bill Pulte told FOX Business. ‘And if you cut it off, you’re in big trouble. The [KB Home] cancelation rate… was through the roof, something like 68%, which is just enormous. Usually, that number is around 10, at most 20%. So I think we’ve got a tough road ahead this year.'”

“Property investor Thor Equities CEO Joe Sitt said claimed it’s ‘going to take some time’ for metropolitan areas to see a rebound in their commercial and personal housing markets. ‘I think the cities are going to wake up and try to react,’ Sitt said. ‘I would say San Francisco rents are probably down somewhere in the neighborhood of about 35%. No exaggeration. It’s dramatic what’s going on in that marketplace. It’s more, I hate to say it, markets like ours here in New York, Chicago, San Francisco is a ghost town. San Francisco’s been destroyed.'”

“Home prices in the DC area fell year-over-year in December, according to a Bright MLS report out Thursday, the first time since September 2016 that prices fell annually. ‘The median sales price was $550,000, which was down 1.3% compared to last December,’ the report said. ‘Home prices peaked in May 2022 and the median price is now 15% below peak level.'”

“Brenna Rizzuto is about to put her north Phoenix home up for sale. She should get a reasonable price, but it won’t be as much as she would have made listing her house last year. ‘I do understand that I am not going to have people beating down my door, not going to get as much as I might have six months or a year ago,’ said Rizzuto. ‘But I am okay with that.’ ‘We’re seeing buyers now that are able to make some demands,’ said Real estate expert Shelley Sakala with The Sakala Group. ‘They’re getting some concessions, asking for closing costs, asking seller for rate buy down, which is very helpful as far as interest rates go.'”

“‘We are seeing things sit on the market a little bit longer, and we are seeing things swing in the buyer’s favor,’ noted Noreen Payne with Lang Realty in Delray Beach. ‘Sellers are willing to have conversations.’ According to numbers from the Miami Realtors Association, Palm Beach County’s median time to contract was almost double what it was a year ago. ‘There are a lot of good deals for cash-buying snowbirds. They are really starting negotiations from a power position,’ said Whitney Dutton with the Dutton Group in Fort Lauderdale.”

“The end of 2022 marked the largest decline in quarterly North Texas home starts since the Great Recession as buyers pulled back. Builders began construction of almost 8,000 new homes in Dallas-Fort Worth in the fourth quarter, down 38% from a year ago when they started just over 12,900 homes, according to a new report. Many D-FW builders took a ‘spec-and-release’ approach, starting homes in anticipation of demand and releasing them for sale late in the construction process. Builders who took this approach are now having to provide incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns and discounts to get the homes to sell. ‘Buyers that were waiting for more affordable opportunities compared to earlier in 2022 will find that many communities offer compelling house prices today,’ said Ted Wilson, principal with Residential Strategies.”

“In the last half of 2022 the market for homes priced at $10 million and more fell precipitously in New York and South Florida, according to a new report from the brokerage Serhant. ‘Pricing has certainly come down, which differentiates New York City from other markets,’ says Garrett Derderian, Serhant’s director of market intelligence. ‘When buyers at this level smell blood, especially during uncertain times, they tend to strike. So super-prime is usually one of the last tiers to collapse but the first to recover.'”

“Nevada homeowners gained an average of $40,000 in equity for the third quarter year-to-year while U.S. homeowners gained an average of $34,300 during the same period. That’s down from $60,000 year-to-year for the second quarter, according to CoreLogic. The median price of a home in Reno is $519,950, down from a peak of $570,000 in May. In Southern Nevada, the median price of a home has plummeted to $425,000 in December, from a peak of $482,000 in May.”

“Looking specifically at the fourth quarter, median home sales prices in San Francisco declined by 13.5% to $1.57 million and condo sale prices dropped by 12.5% to $1.18 million. Quarterly sales volume dropped by 42% over the same period. San Francisco’s median home prices dropped by 1% to $1.78 million between 2021 and 2022 in the first annual decline the city has seen in a decade, according to Compass. Sales in the luxury home segment fell 52% in the fourth quarter. That’s stark reversal from earlier on in the pandemic, said Patrick Carlisle, a Compass market analyst who authored the report.”

“‘Back then, it was these affluent buyers that led the market. They had the money, they were stuck in shelter-in-place and they very quickly started to buy big new homes and estates,’ Carlisle said. ‘Now we have a complete flip, and the decline in luxury home sales is outpacing the decline in the more affordable market segments.'”

“There are early signs of rough times ahead in the GTA real estate market, with some Toronto mortgage brokers reporting a rise in the forced sale of homes by private and alternative lenders. ‘It’s happening at breakneck speed,’ said Toronto broker Ron Butler. ‘It’s just a strange set of events that have come together to create this vast increase in power of sales. This is just the very beginning of the problem; we’re not going to see the real impact of the problem until May, June, July.'”

“Peppered with colourful all-caps copy like ‘HELP!!! MISSISSAUGA POWER OF SALE **MUST SELL IN 30 DAYS!!!’ and ‘POWER OF SALE* BACK ON MARKET — DEAL FELL THROUGH!!!’ power of sale ads are hard to miss on sites like Kijiji and HouseSigma. One three-bedroom, four-bathroom Brampton townhouse was sold as a power of sale for $919,000 in December 2022, after it was bought in 2021 for $1,260,000.”

“The other group facing forced sales is people who have mortgages with alternative or ‘B lenders’ that cater to individuals who might not qualify with the big banks. In these cases, ‘the increase in payment was so substantial as to become almost unmanageable,’ Butler said. Butler estimates that only around 2 to 3 per cent of homeowners with mortgages in Toronto and Vancouver have either private or alternative lenders. ‘But it’s still meaningful,’ he added. ‘There’s nothing quite as impactful on a marketplace as too many people who have to sell.'”

“From a new build offering £5,000 towards buying fees to a Grade II-listed house with a £2 million price cut, here are nine London properties with reductions or offering financial incentives for buyers. Cheyne Walk, £1 million. Four-bedroom, 1,834-sq ft detached house with an entire ground floor for entertaining and a granny annex in the garden. Originally priced at £1.395 million. Maida Vale, £5.25 million. A seven-bedroom, Grade II-listed house arranged over four storeys with front and rear gardens, wooden floors and feature fireplaces. It has been reduced by £2 million since March 2022.”

“House prices have fallen at their fast rate in more than a decade in Denmark, one of the most expensive property markets in Europe – and analysts fear the UK could be next. In the third quarter of 2022 in Denmark house prices fell by 3.8%. Prices in neighbouring Sweden have been plummeting, with almost 20% of their value being lost in five months. Denmark was the first country in the world to experiment with negative interest rates in 2012. This experiment ended in September when the central bank brought them back into positive figures. This has pushed up the price of borrowing which many Danes have grown used to being almost free for a decade. A similar situation is happening in Sweden where they too used negative interest rates to stimulate their economy.”

“Hundreds of thousands of the most vulnerable mortgage borrowers risk being locked into uncompetitive interest rates as falling property values reduce or remove their ability to refinance. Mortgage broker Ali Kawser, who operates around Melton in Melbourne’s outer western suburbs, is starting to see some of these borrowers coming through his doors.”

“‘We have gone through a fixed-price frenzy from early 2020 to mid-October 2021,’ he told ABC News. ‘Eight out of 10 customers fixed the loans for two years with a rate of 2 per cent or lower, and they have adjusted their monthly expenses and everything around that … and some customers bought a car because their repayment was lower. So 10 per cent of the customers are coming back now, but in the coming months, by Easter, it will be a big chunk of customers who will come to us. I would say all of them will come just to get by for the next 24 months. And we have to make a plan for them.'”

“Mr Kawser said one customer had come to him this month after being informed by her lender that her repayments would jump from $2,173 this month under her fixed loan to $3,550 in February once that loan ended. ‘Their first comment is, ‘We can’t pay that much, we need to do something now,’ he said.”

“A borrower with less than 20 per cent equity would most likely be required to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) if they moved bank. ‘This is not your insurance, it’s insurance to cover the lender that you have to pay for,’ explained RateCity’s research director Sally Tindall. ‘And so, when you move lenders, it does not come with you. If you don’t have that all-important 20 per cent equity in your home, then you’re going to be asked to pay it again.'”

“‘Suddenly they find themselves in what we would call mortgage prison,’ Ms Tindall explained. ‘Because once you do the maths, the cost of the lenders mortgage insurance typically outweighs the benefits of refinancing — although don’t rule it out completely, do the maths first.'”

“Mr Kawser said he was already seeing customers in this situation. ‘A customer of mine last year bought a property of $570,000 … [the] current valuation is maximum $540,000,’ he said. ‘They have paid over maybe $10,000 or $15,000 in the last 12 months, and it’s been wiped off already. So we are trying hard to do a refinance, including LMI. So they’re going to lose another $7,000 to $8,000 again.'”

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This Post Has 126 Comments

  1. ‘If you don’t have that all-important 20 per cent equity in your home, then you’re going to be asked to pay it again…Suddenly they find themselves in what we would call mortgage prison,’ Ms Tindall explained. ‘Because once you do the maths, the cost of the lenders mortgage insurance typically outweighs the benefits of refinancing’

    All the little ways shack gamblers get taken down. How did you lose yer shack mate?

    I was trying to date the rate, but I got fooked instead!

    3. For me, PMI was a little more than a hundred bucks a month. So these refinancers are saving only a hundred bucks per month by refinancing.

  2. ‘Home prices in the DC area fell year-over-year in December, according to a Bright MLS report out Thursday, the first time since September 2016 that prices fell annually. ‘The median sales price was $550,000, which was down 1.3% compared to last December,’ the report said. ‘Home prices peaked in May 2022 and the median price is now 15% below peak level’

    Another sh$thole rolls over YOY.

    1. ‘Home prices peaked in May 2022 and the median price is now 15% below peak level’

      How does that square with RedPimp’s presicted 4% price decline?

  3. ‘I think the cities are going to wake up and try to react,’ Sitt said. ‘I would say San Francisco rents are probably down somewhere in the neighborhood of about 35%. No exaggeration. It’s dramatic what’s going on in that marketplace. It’s more, I hate to say it, markets like ours here in New York, Chicago, San Francisco is a ghost town. San Francisco’s been destroyed’

    I’m not a fan of big cities but I don’t like to see them torn apart. This whole thing began in earnest after CCP virus. It’s easy to tear things down but it takes generations to build. It doesn’t have to be this way.

    1. Note that the RE boosters NEVER talk about how high house prices and rents destroy cities, it’s only falling prices/rents that are a problem.

  4. ‘I would say San Francisco rents are probably down somewhere in the neighborhood of about 35%.’

    There is no need to buy when both rents and purchase prices are CR8Ring. Just sit back and enjoy the melodious sound of debt donkeys braying en masse.

    1. “…There is no need to buy when both rents and purchase prices are CR8Ring….”

      Commercial probably even worse. Add in Twitter not paying rent and what have you got?

  5. ‘San Francisco is a ghost town. San Francisco’s been destroyed’

    On the plus side, yer bum urine taking down lamp post index is likely to improve.

      2. “Nobody wants to be walking in urine and feces, I know that, (but) if we don’t see it or the person doesn’t admit to it, they can just say it was someone else,” Jenkins said. “Certain crimes you don’t see, you can’t enforce.”

        Wait, they can’t test 💩 for DNA? Maybe not if there’s gobs of — then it’s commingled.

  6. “It’s a tale of two cities. I hate to relate it to politics, but the more red states, places like Florida, Texas, the office buildings are pretty busy. Business is booming. There’s more demand and supply,” Thor Equities CEO Joe Sitt said later on “Varney & Co.” “It’s more, I hate to say it, markets like ours here in New York, Chicago, San Francisco is a ghost town. San Francisco’s been destroyed.”

    Swarms of hoodie looters, homeless’ feces, smelly urine patches, etc., gotta hand it to the left…they know how to phuc it up!

    2. I have a bunch of very wealthy, liberal family members who work in pharma, sales, etc.

      They all work up north and park their full time dwellings in Florida for the tax benefits. I don’t see how this is sustainable. These people live off the cheap labor of the natives, but still work and earn mass fortunes in the NE.

  7. Stocks have been going up like gangbusters the last few daze. Does this reflect a bumper earnings season on Wall Street?

    1. The Financial Times
      BlackRock Inc
      BlackRock’s Larry Fink warns of ‘substantial’ impact from markets on earnings
      World’s largest asset manager posts 15% decline in fourth-quarter revenue
      BlackRock chief Larry Fink said the operating environment was ‘unlike anything we’ve seen in decades’
      Emma Dunkley in London
      24 minutes ago

      BlackRock’s Larry Fink has admitted that “negative markets had a substantial impact” on the world’s largest fund manager last year, wiping out $1.4tn of its assets and hitting profits.

      In an internal memo seen by the Financial Times, the chief executive said the operating environment “is unlike anything we’ve seen in decades”.

      His comments come as asset managers across the industry have suffered steep declines in assets under management amid one of the toughest market environments in recent history. Global stocks and bonds fell last year by nearly 20 per cent and 14 per cent respectively.
      …

      1. ‘BlackRock’s Larry Fink has admitted that “negative markets had a substantial impact” on the world’s largest fund manager last year, wiping out $1.4tn of its assets’

        Is that a lot Larry?

        ‘the chief executive said the operating environment “is unlike anything we’ve seen in decades”

        It is different this time.

    2. The Financial Times
      Goldman Sachs Group
      Goldman Sachs says new fintech unit incurred $3bn in losses since 2020
      Wall St bank is restating earnings to reflect changes to divisional structure in October
      People walk by Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York City, US
      Goldman Sachs’ Platform Solutions fintech unit reported a loss of $1.2bn for the first nine months of 2022, $1.05bn for the full year in 2021 and $783mn in 2020
      Joshua Franklin in New York
      2 hours ago

      Goldman Sachs’ newly formed technology and consumer unit made the equivalent of $3bn in pre-tax losses since 2020, the bank said on Friday.

      In its most detailed information to date about losses involved in its push into consumer banking, Goldman is restating the last three years of its financial results to reflect the group’s new divisional structure.

      The new units include its “Platform Solutions” division, which reported losses of $1.2bn for the first nine months of 2022, $1.05bn for the full year in 2021 and $783mn in 2020.

      Goldman had publicly stated that the fintech business was lossmaking but had previously only shared top-line revenue figures for the unit, rather than profit or loss numbers.
      …

    3. The Financial Times
      Crypto.com to shed 20% of staff in latest industry job cuts
      Group that splashed out on LA stadium naming rights during crypto bull run hit by ‘unforeseeable’ events
      Aerial shot of Crypto.com Arena
      The job cuts mark a stark change in fortune for Crypto.com since November 2021, when it bought the naming rights for the Staples Center, home of the La Lakers basketball team
      Scott Chipolina in London and Mercedes Ruehl in Singapore
      3 hours ago

      Digital assets exchange Crypto.com has revealed plans to shed a fifth of its workforce, in the latest round of sweeping lay-offs to hit the cryptocurrency industry after last year’s crisis.

      The job cuts at Crypto.com come just days after US-listed rival Coinbase said it would reduce its headcount by almost 1,000 employees in an attempt to “weather downturns in the crypto market.”

      The lay-offs at major crypto firms, which also includes US bank Silvergate and broker Genesis, highlight how the ructions from the FTX collapse and $1.6tn token sell-off last year are rippling in to 2023.
      …

    4. Tesla Stock Tumbles As EV Giant Slashes U.S., European Prices
      KIT NORTON 08:31 AM ET 01/13/2023

      Tesla (TSLA) has cut Model 3 and Model Y prices in the U.S. and Europe, a week after big reductions in Asia. The move will make more of its models eligible for U.S. tax credits and drum up sales as analysts expect 2023 to be a difficult year for the auto industry. Tesla stock fell solidly early Friday, with General Motors and other automakers also retreating.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-tumbles-as-ev-giant-slash-u-s-european-prices/

      1. A friend took delivery of her Model Y in October after a 10-month wait against my advice. Model Y prices were dropped 20% ($13,000). Add in the federal and state tax credits she didn’t get. Ouch!

        1. Does she have good life insurance? The cost is offset by the fact you won’t have to pay for cremation.

          1. I warned her about getting trapped during a battery fire because of the stupid door handles.

          2. I warned her about getting trapped during a battery fire

            She should keep a small hammer in the car, to smash a window to get out.

      1. LIVE UPDATES
        Updated Fri, Jan 13 2023 11:15 AM EST
        S&P 500 falls as bank shares decline on recession fears
        Tanaya Macheel
        Samantha Subin

        The stock market was set to end a winning week on a sour note Friday, as JPMorgan Chase led a decline in bank shares after it warned a recession was its base case for the year.

        All of the major indexes were trading well off their lows of the session. The broad market S&P 500 slid 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.1%, and was on pace to snap a five-day win streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average wavered over the flat line.

        Stocks are still headed for a winning week, with the Nasdaq on pace for their best weekly performance since November. The Nasdaq is up about 3.5% for the week. The S&P has advanced 1.8%, while the Dow has added 1.5%.

        JPMorgan Chase posted revenue that beat expectations, but the bank warned it was setting aside more money to cover credit losses because a “mild recession” is its “central case.” The bank posted a $2.3 billion provision for credit losses in the quarter, a 49% increase from the third quarter.

        Bank of America fell slightly despite reporting better-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter. The company echoed JPMorgan’s concerns about the economy. It’s preparing for a mild recession in 2023, including a scenario where unemployment rises rapidly, CEO Brian Moynihan said on a call with investors.

        Wells Fargo shares dipped too after reporting its profits for the last quarter had been cut by half.
        …
        https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

      2. The Financial Times
        Citigroup Inc
        Citi profits drop as investment banking slowdown outweighs trading boom
        Net interest income up 23% from a year ago as Federal Reserve raises rates
        The Citi logo shown on a screen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange
        Citi’s net income was down almost 22% from the same period last year
        Joshua Franklin in New York and Owen Walker in London 5 hours ago

        A slump in investment banking sent Citigroup’s profits tumbling 22 per cent in the fourth quarter, despite the bank reaping the benefits of rising interest rates and a trading boom.

        Citi was one of several Wall Street lenders reporting heavy falls in investment banking revenues on Friday, though a costly restructuring programme at the bank meant it was hit harder than its peers.

        Citi said net income for the final three months of 2022 was $2.5bn, or $1.16 a share, in line with analysts’ estimates, but down almost 22 per cent from $3.2bn in the same period last year.
        …

      1. U.S. stocks could fall 10% as ‘pain trade’ takes hold before bouncing back later in the year
        Published: Jan. 13, 2023 at 12:19 p.m. ET
        By Barbara Kollmeyer Joseph Adinolfi
        The year ahead is promising not to be an easy one for investors as a recession threat looms, but Bank of America is offering some advice on when things might get easier.

        The bad news is things might get harder first, even after global stocks have seen a strong start to the year.

        A team of strategists led by Michael Hartnett told clients in a note on Friday that U.S. stocks could fall 10% from current levels before rallying later this year as investors start to expect a less aggressive policy stance from the Federal Reserve.

        Stocks could slide as the U.S. economy slows and corporate earnings weaken. But there could be a light at the end of the tunnel.

        A “recession trade requires patience,” he said in a note to clients on Friday.

        He described the dynamic as a “pain trade,” meaning stock markets are at risk of losing ground until the Federal Reserve finally signals that it will start cutting interest rates.
        …
        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-could-fall-10-as-pain-trade-takes-hold-before-bouncing-back-later-in-the-year-11673630377

        1. Do Wall Street traders think they can convince the Fed to cut rates by complaining loudly and often enough?

          1. The Fed just gave a veiled warning to investors: Expect more stocks pain if markets keep betting on rate cuts
            George Glover
            Jan 5, 2023, 4:49 AM
            Jerome Powell speaks at a Fed meeting
            Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaking at a news conference in July 2022. The central bank has warned that there could be further pain ahead for stocks if investors start betting it will cut interest rates later this year. Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

            – Markets will suffer if investors carry on expecting rate cuts, according to the latest Federal Reserve minutes.
            – Bets on a Fed pivot “would complicate the committee’s efforts to restore price stability,” the minutes read.
            – Some strategists believe that the central bank is now easing up on its monetary tightening campaign as inflation shows signs of cooling.
            …
            https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-fed-interest-rate-cuts-december-meeting-minutes-2023-1

  8. ‘The other group facing forced sales is people who have mortgages with alternative or ‘B lenders’ that cater to individuals who might not qualify with the big banks. In these cases, ‘the increase in payment was so substantial as to become almost unmanageable’

    They never should have approved my loan, it was designed to fail!

    ‘Butler estimates that only around 2 to 3 per cent of homeowners with mortgages in Toronto and Vancouver have either private or alternative lenders. ‘But it’s still meaningful,’ he added. ‘There’s nothing quite as impactful on a marketplace as too many people who have to sell’

    2% of loans souring can schlong everybody with the comps. Add to that the whole of K-da is sinking like a turd in a well.

    1. almost unmanageable

      It must just be me, but I see the ones with cooperative banks in the real trouble. When a typical family with a couple of kids, a couple of late model cars, a $500,000 mortgage on an attached row house and all of $70K in before tax income sees their monthly jump to $4,500, there’s a real problem.

    2. “2% of loans souring can schlong everybody with the comps.”

      You are right, Ben. If 100 shacks are in a market, and 2 have bad loans, that means if 13 houses are for sale at any given time (assuming turnover of 7.5 years), 2/13 = 15%. So, yes they would impact the comps.

      1. The comps are not what is for sale, they’re what just sold. So maybe for a while those stinkers are closer to 100%.

  9. ‘Back then, it was these affluent buyers that led the market. They had the money, they were stuck in shelter-in-place and they very quickly started to buy big new homes and estates,’ Carlisle said. ‘Now we have a complete flip, and the decline in luxury home sales is outpacing the decline in the more affordable market segments’

    Pat are you saying those winnahs! are now the biggest losers?

  10. From the Toronto, Canada piece: “Peppered with colourful all-caps copy like ‘HELP!!! MISSISSAUGA POWER OF SALE **MUST SELL IN 30 DAYS!!!’ and ‘POWER OF SALE* BACK ON MARKET — DEAL FELL THROUGH!!!’ power of sale ads are hard to miss on sites like Kijiji and HouseSigma.”

    You know it’s time to stick a fork in it when parked cars start popping up everywhere with For Sale signs that say, “Take Over Payments.”

    1. Is that really a thing? If I was car shopping and saw “take over payments” I would just ignore the listing because it screams “upside down loser” or some such. I can’t imagine a buyer who would be interested.

      2. “Is that really a thing?”

        It certainly was back in the early 80s when the only buyers were those with cash; nobody else would sign up at 20% rates.

  11. 𝗕𝗼𝘆𝗻𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵, 𝗙𝗟 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮

    https://www.movoto.com/boynton-beach-fl/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘢 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘴𝘰 𝘦𝘭𝘰𝘲𝘶𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘭𝘺, “𝘈 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘳𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘥𝘭𝘺 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘦𝘮𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘸𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘥𝘢𝘺 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘪𝘵.”

  12. Re: Interest rates are like the mother’s milk of housing,

    Punch bowl would be more apropos and when that is taken away we all know what happens . . .

  13. “‘When you have a rise and increase in interest rates like we’ve had, that is a big problem for housing. Interest rates are like the mother’s milk of housing,’…”

    No, the big problem is the insanely out of whack pricing. One of my relitter friends just posted about a house she sold in Huntington Beach, CA, basically a semi-custom tract home on postage-stamp lot—and not near the beach—for $1.92M.

  14. Keep paying those federal income taxes, slaves.

    “Conservative US lawmakers critical of the adulation of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky have rallied against a proposal to place a bust of the foreign leader in the Capitol building in Washington. US Representative Joe Wilson has suggested making a Zelensky statue a permanent feature.

    Wilson, a Republican from South Carolina, made a proposal on Monday to direct the Fine Arts Board to obtain a bust “for display in a suitable, permanent location in the House of Representatives wing of the United States Capitol.”

    Some members of the GOP’s Freedom Caucus, which includes a conservative minority opposing unconditional support for Ukraine, expressed skepticism. Andy Biggs of Arizona, one of its leading members, asked whether Congress allocating over $100 billion in aid to Ukraine was “not enough.”

    Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia said she was “absolutely not” approving the idea, adding that US lawmakers were serving “America not Ukraine.”

    https://www.rt.com/news/569736-zelensky-bust-capitol-resolution/

    Zelensky is a war criminal.

    1. Conservative US lawmakers critical of the adulation of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky have rallied against a proposal to place a bust of the foreign leader in the Capitol building in Washington. US Representative Joe Wilson has suggested making a Zelensky statue a permanent feature.

      Not bad for a clown who has played a piano with his d*ck

      1. Follow the money. There’s a great fraud going on right now. The Biden Coup is draining the US Treasury and taxpayers dry. The US is basically a Banana Republic at this point.

  15. A reader sent these in:

    Ooo. Haven’t seen it yet, but the US Federal Reserve’s real estate bubble expert just did an interview for @BetterDwelling. He’s previously called 🇨🇦 & 🇺🇸 bubbles. @daniel_foch tells me it was 🔥🔥🔥

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1613640267956981761

    DRUCKENMILLER ON THE HARD LANDING 👇👇

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1613166140900900864

    Who’s paying attention

    https://twitter.com/PauloMacro/status/1613662469636988931

    Really appreciate the inflation experts discussing how inflation being 225% above the target rate means there’s low inflation. Getting punched in the stomach 6.5 times per hour is practically not being punched at all once you taper from 8 times an hour.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1613742299003125762

    Absolutely spectacular how few people realize Japan’s central bank is in crisis mode.
    – the BOJ owns over 50% of gov bonds
    – they just raised max yields and the new ceiling is already breached
    – second unscheduled bond purchase
    – yields still aren’t dropping

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1613764410593480705

    The yield curve inversion keeps stretching further & further. As @LanceRoberts warns, it isn’t the inversion that hastens a recession; we need to worry when the curve un-inverts. How much longer until that happens? It’s been 40 years since the yield curve was this far inverted.

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1613737424760475650

    $BBBY now up 308% since they announced they may go bankrupt a week ago. Are we in 2023 or 2021?

    https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1613682668201189376

    Per @GuyDealership, Teslas have seen the most depreciation from any other used car, I believe it was 20%+, and now they offering a huge discount and trying to give them away. Please someone out there tell me how it’s bullish.

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1613747131659218944

    BOJ OFFERS ZERO-INTEREST LOANS TO BANKS IN ORDER TO CAP YIELDS.

    https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1613749313112363008

    Housing is in trouble. 1/8

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1613671660804005888

    Ryan Lundquist
    @SacAppraiser
    If rates go back down…1) Rates going down can help bring back some demand in the housing market. 2) We’re missing about 40% of buyers locally, so modest rate declines aren’t an instant reset button. Not trying to be a killjoy, but we’re still struggling with affordability.

    https://twitter.com/SacAppraiser/status/1613645649446318080

    Lance Lambert

    The U.S. is short….5.24 million homes, according to @realtordotcom
    3.8 million homes, according to @FreddieMac
    1.7 million homes, according to @JBREC
    1.6 million homes, according to @MoodysAnalytics
    .
    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1559643944421556225

    Buy 750k 4/22
    List 859k 5/22
    Pending sale 649,900 1/24

    https://twitter.com/vixath/status/1613588873791307776

    Too big high profile primary market multifamily sponsors in trouble this week. Both $450-500m debt defaults. Veritas in rent restricted great located SF multi and Chetrit in sunbelt/Midwest workforce. Haven’t dug on either. Latter shows confusing ~80% occ that must mean a story.

    https://twitter.com/MRossG199/status/1613712040027111428

    A large $382 Million multifamily 8,671 unit portfolio with a heavy southeast concentration recently went into maturity default. Sponsor is a huge real estate investor. (No I do not know why occupancy is low)

    https://twitter.com/ShlomoChopp/status/1613711230086139905

    I know multiple people who’ve been laid off twice in the past six months. Situation in tech seems to be getting worse. Not sure where this ends. Seems to be a positive feedback loop since many startups are each other’s customers.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisUnits/status/1613703649464573954

    Amount of inventory hitting Zillow in ME VT NH is wild 😜 Hundreds of listings since Jan 3? Probably more I don’t know. Mostly junk (that will need to reduce to sell) or new construction (that will get desperate and reduce within a few weeks). There is no way rates can save it

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1613734729383120897

    It’s just hundreds of listings where you need to put 20% down and you’ll have a $3,900/month payment for a glorified mobile home. Do these people reduce price? Let it sit empty and wait until next year? Flood the market with hundreds of rentals?

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1613735341038489601

    We just wrapped the analysis for our “Best Places to Invest” report. Its still a couple weeks before it comes out, but here are the *worst* market for new STR investment according to our methodology: Big Bear, CA followed by Durango, CO and Lake Tahoe, CA.

    https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane/status/1613749228748013569

    I’m going to keep showing this until everyone fully understands the situation. The move-up buyer can’t move up. The whole system was built on a 3% mortgage. People have to double their payment to get one more bathroom.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1613671666722213889

    Redfin

    Home sellers are offering concessions at a record-high rate reports our Deputy Chief Economist @TaylorAMarr. Concessions are offered most frequently in the fastest-cooling housing markets like Seattle, Phoenix, and San Diego.

    https://twitter.com/Redfin/status/1613230884509077504

    Uh Oh … 🔥 🔥 🔥 Is this already 2008 ? Or is this totally different this time ? What kind of year will 2023 be?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1613754506025783296

    Inflation component favored by Chair Powell moved in wrong direction

    https://twitter.com/pdacosta/status/1613572485185769473

    Lance Lambert

    The U.S. housing market will soon enter the few month window where most home price appreciation happens in a given year. It’ll be interesting to see where the 2023 spring line lands.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1613581483750395904

    Every fifth home in England is now owned by someone who owns multiple homes, and a further one in ten are owned by other private owners such as companies (to rent).

    https://twitter.com/J_Elliott94/status/1613440231272861696

    Valerie M Brown | Your Las Vegas Realtor
    In (Jan) 2020 Las Vegas Median Value $305K
    In (May) 2022 Las Vegas Median Value $482K
    = a 58% Increase in Values
    In (Dec) 2022 Las Vegas Median Value $425K
    = almost 12% Decline /7 Months.
    -12% More? Median Values est at $374K.
    Median Values still increased $75K over 28 mos.

    https://twitter.com/valeriebrownre/status/1613612271456096256

    Median days on market exploding in suburban Dallas – lots of people that move to Texas will probably be reconsidering.

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1613223257637023744

    How housing made rich Australians 50 per cent richer, leaving renters and the young behind — and how to fix it.

    https://twitter.com/FestUrbanism/status/1613351343791681543

    Never in history have seller expectations been more unrealistic than today

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1613497234963808257

    Housing market canary is bereft of life…

    https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1613419368289030144

    In six months of QT, Fed has added +$34 billion (+2.4%) of longest duration bonds, rolled off just 2.7% of MBS (-$75 billion) and fiddled around w/ shorter durations. Amid this, mortgage rates have exploded. Just imagine what would happen if…the Fed was serious?

    https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1613656338990796801

    6% interest rates mean the median income household can afford a $275,000 house. Median price of homes today: $429,000. Interest rates would need to be 0% to make the median home affordable to the median family at $429,000.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1613618153946509313

    US wage growth has failed to keep pace with rising consumer prices for a record 21 consecutive months. This is a decline in prosperity for the American worker and the primary reason why the Fed will hike rates for the 8th time at the Feb 1 meeting.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1613539858022076417

    RIP Bbbbbbrrrrroke speculators

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1613631027779633152

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    Property Taxes Going Up: Our Cities Will Keep Inflation Running Hot
    A round of Ontario Municipal Property Tax increases are underway that ALL look to be higher than the Core Inflation number the Bank of Canada is trying to suppress
    Are you starting to feel utterly screwed?

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1613173556980117507

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    This Is A Very Important Point: Why Aren’t We Seeing More Sales of Investment Properties? Because no matter how bad negative cash flow on a Rental Property gets, the Invester will try EVERYTHING to hold on to the property. Including more borrowing at even higher interest rates

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1613226027869736983

    600 years of market data: – “Humans are emotional so asset prices rise & fall cyclically with their greed & fear.”
    Guy that’s owned a condo for 2 years:
    – “It only goes up. This time is different.”

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1613364465348579329

    tl;dr get rich in 🇨🇦
    Step 1: Immigrate to 🇨🇦, buy a home.
    Step 2: Sell your home to new immigrants & buy a bigger home.
    Step 3: Repeat with new immigrants until they can’t afford it, then rent your basement to them. Profit. The scheme is best visualized as a triangle.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1613378169444130816

    What part of the real estate cycle do packs of tweens roam the subway and assault you, sometimes to death? Because that’s where Toronto, the world’s largest real estate bubble, is at.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1613382504223834113

    Toronto has a gov alert for an extreme weather event with up to 30mm of rain followed by snow, then a drop in windchill to -21°C. It also has 18,096 homeless people and only 3 warming centers. 🧐

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1613389836198584321

    1. I know multiple people who’ve been laid off twice in the past six months. Situation in tech seems to be getting worse. Not sure where this ends. Seems to be a positive feedback loop since many startups are each other’s customers.

      “start ups” == money burners that have never been profitable.

      1. I know multiple people who’ve been laid off twice in the past six months.

        The news isn’t that they’ve been laid off twice, it’s that they are rehired immediately ie. there are too many jobs and not enough people. They overheated the economy. It’s still overheated.

        1. From what I have read recently on thelayoff dot com website, it’s getting harder to find a tech job.

    2. DRUCKENMILLER ON THE HARD LANDING

      I’ve seen this before but it’s an excellent 1m40s clip.

    3. BOJ owns a lot of stocks and index funds. This is how they have kept up the Ponzi going. The Japanese have not called them out on it. Because the ones with the money stand to benefit in the sense that the late 80’s bubble losses are reduced. However, food prices and day to day prices have been increasing.

    4. $BBBY now up 308% since they announced they may go bankrupt a week ago. Are we in 2023 or 2021?

      We are still right in the middle of the raging mania. What part of DOW 34k+ are people missing? Things haven’t even begun to come apart. When you gin up 10 trillion in liquidity in mere months, this is what you get. The idea that the FED’s work is complete and inflation is coming down is laughable on a whole new level.

      1. inflation is coming down

        They inflated the currency times what in the past few years. 2x? 3x? They’re still inflating it. Talk about them fighting it is simply gaslighting.

      1. Via ZH (no link): 20 Year Old Colorado College Tennis Player Dies Unexpectedly In His Sleep

        According to one of Ed Dowd’s sources, the White House is considering blaming “a pandemic of sudden deaths” on long COVID and possibly climate change.

        2. 20 Year Old Colorado College Tennis Player Dies

          This trend does seem to be going into overdrive. It wouldn’t surprise me if the PTB are crafting a new psyop to deal with it.

    2. Ok, so Maria Presley was big proponent of vaccine, even did a commercial on taking the vaccine.
      But as usual with these died suddenly people its always something else that must of caused it.
      So many cases happening now on a daily basis that its beyond belief.

      1. Dr. Joseph Fraiman, a doctor based in Louisiana who also conducts research on COVID-19 and other health issues, says it’s time to halt the administration of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines until new clinical trials prove the benefits from the vaccines outweigh the harms.

        The new research, including a reanalysis of the trials for the vaccines, raise concerns about whether the benefits from the vaccines outweigh the harms, according to the doctor.

        “I don’t see how anyone couldn’t be certain that the benefits are outweighing the harms on a population level, or even in the high-risk groups. I don’t see the evidence to support that claim,” Fraiman told The Epoch Times. “But I also can’t say that there’s evidence to support that it’s potentially more harmful, but there’s also uncertainty here. … Given that scenario, I believe that people should not be given the [vaccines] outside of a clinical trial, because we need to figure out … if their benefits outweigh harm or if harm outweighs benefits.”

        “The only thing that can answer that question is going to be a randomized trial,” he added. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which cleared the shots and has never stopped promoting them, did not return an inquiry.

        Fraiman led a study that reanalyzed the original Pfizer and Moderna trials. He and his colleagues concluded in a study published following peer review that the vaccinated were at higher risk of serious adverse events.

        That’s one data point. Another is the identification of safety signals, or adverse events, that are potentially caused by the vaccines but require further study. The FDA revealed in December 2022 that the Pfizer vaccine was linked to blood clotting in elderly individuals. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which recommends the vaccines for virtually all Americans, found hundreds of other signals in its research, according to records obtained by The Epoch Times.

        Several serious problems that can lead to death have been causally linked, or proven to be caused by the vaccines. They include myocarditis, or heart inflammation.

        While U.S. health officials have repeatedly downplayed the severity of myocarditis and a related condition, pericarditis, German researchers who dug into the deaths of 25 people who died suddenly at home after vaccination ruled out every potential cause except for vaccination for five of the people. They reported their results in a study that was published after peer review in late 2022.

        “Given alternative causes are unlikely to cause myocarditis within one week of vaccination, this is essentially conclusive evidence that we’re seeing sudden cardiac deaths from the vaccines,” Fraiman said.

        Fraiman also noted that excess mortality, or deaths from all causes, have risen during the pandemic—with spikes correlating with the introduction of the vaccines. Vaccines may not have caused the additional deaths, he says, but some researchers, including British professors Norman Fenton and Martin Neil, have examined the data and found a signal that the vaccines were linked to at least some of the excess deaths. U.S. officials say some of the deaths may be from COVID-19.

        When the vaccines were first introduced, Fraiman backed giving them to the elderly and others at high risk from COVID-19, or people of all ages with serious underlying health conditions. He says he also did not recommend against vaccination for any ages, though he told younger family members he was not sure if it was a good idea to get a jab.

        Fraiman also says the vaccines likely reduced hospitalizations in the first two quarters of 2021, recalling how he did not see a single vaccinated person in his hospital until June of that year.

        When he and the other scientists discovered the vaccinated were at higher risk of serious problems, he shifted to a stance of the harms likely outweighing the benefits among healthy people.

        With the new evidence of harm, along with Omicron being less dangerous and more likely to evade vaccine immunity, Fraiman questions whether the benefits outweigh the serious harms even among the elderly and otherwise infirm. “I see the likelihood that the harm could outweigh the benefit in the group who stood to benefit the most from the vaccine,” he said.

        Clinical trial data on the vaccines have been hard to come by, especially trials not run by the vaccine makers themselves, and the standards for the trials have been lowered over time.

        The FDA authorized shots for children based on immunobridging, or trial data that found the vaccines triggered a similar antibody response in kids than that in adults. For the new bivalent boosters, created because the original vaccines have been providing much lower levels of protection against Omicron and its subvariants, no clinical data, not even antibody measurements, was provided at all. Months later, that data is still not available to the public.

        Some observational studies have estimated the boosters provide subpar protection against infection and solid protection, at least initially, against hospitalization. Randomized, controlled trials are typically considered superior.

        Fraiman recommends withdrawing the vaccines and U.S. officials going to the vaccine makers and asking them to demonstrate the benefits outweigh the harms in light of the changed dynamics of the pandemic. The trials should feature investigators looking closely at each COVID-19 hospitalization to distinguish whether they were caused by COVID-19, or the COVID-19 diagnosis was incidental. That distinction is known widely as being hospitalized, or dying, with COVID-19 versus from COVID-19. The trial would take five or six months, similar to the original ones, Fraiman says.

        Some countries, such as Denmark, meanwhile, have stopped offering booster shots to certain segments of the population. A growing number of experts, meanwhile, are calling for the administration of the Moderna and Pfizer shots, which are by far the most administered in the United States, to be halted.

        The group includes Dr. Aseem Malhotra, a British doctor who turned against the vaccines in 2022 due to the growing evidence of side effects. Malhotra’s citations included the Moderna and Pfizer trials, which showed no reduction in mortality or severe disease, and the research led by Fraiman.

        Linda Wastila, director of policy and research of the Peter Lamy Center for Drug Therapy and Aging at the University of Maryland, said she agrees with Fraiman, pointing to the research as well as data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. Reports of thousands of post-vaccination deaths have been lodged with the system, in addition to hundreds of thousands of injuries.

        “I’m a data scientist, and I’m overwhelmed by the congruence of all these data coming together so rapidly, all painting a horrific picture of vaccine harms that really cannot be ignored,” Wastila told The Epoch Times via email.

        Wastila called for the removal of the vaccines from the market immediately, at least until safety signals identified by the CDC and FDA are closely studied.

        “In not doing so, FDA and the rest of government agencies pushing these products are not only placing millions at risk for injury or death, they also are successfully encouraging rapid distrust of the institutions that are supposed to protect us,” she said.

        There are other experts, such as Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo, who have recommended against certain populations getting vaccinated, such as healthy young men, because they’re at higher risk of one or more side effects and stand to gain little benefit against a disease that already poses minimal risk to them. Still, other experts continue to back the vaccination of virtually all people, including Dr. Ashish Jha, coordinator of the White House COVID-19 response.

        https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/health/doctor-calls-for-withdrawal-of-pfizer-moderna-covid-19-vaccines-following-new-research_4975379.html

      2. So many cases happening now on a daily basis that its beyond belief.

        The majority of my extended family is jabbed, I now wonder if I will eventually get a “bad news” phone call.

        1. Her heart probably resembled Foie gras. If she had to wait tables at a breakfast café starting at 0500-hrs five days a week, and maintain a thigh gap and spring in her step to keep the tips coming she’d likely still be alive.

          3. If she never moved to Los Angeles she’d probably still be alive. She wanted to live the life of a star and she couldn’t handle it. The drugs did her in.

        2. A drug overdose or drinking oneself to death would be more consistent with a broken heart. A cardiac arrest? After shilling for the jabs! GMAFB!!!

    4. She outlived her father by at least 10 years. That’s a rarity for offspring of an entertainer of Elvis’s caliber. He went out while taking a dump after supposedly not taking a dump for some 5 months.

      1. That had to be an epic turd! He had to have died happy. I mean, what else is there to accomplish after taking a dump like that. Is there a picture of him somewhere with his arm around it flashing a Shaka?

          2. Some pharmaceutical company was pushing a drug to relieve constipation brought on by opioid use. Was a while ago, laughed when I saw the commercial, don’t remember name of it.

            Take a little too much magnesium oxide (not recommended form) and don’t stray too far from a bathroom. You’ll be right as rain.

          3. Watching my mom undergo cancer “treatments” and all the drugs needed to address the side effects of those “treatments” was an eye-opener. And we were both in the field.

    1. Yet to this day all of the libs still believe the Steel Dossier is true. It’s the whole “if you tell a lie long enough” thing. It actually worked. It’s sickening.

  21. People have to double their payments to get one more bathroom.

    Big red flag, you have 2 choices store your stuff and pay a monthly rental fee, OR I know this is painful even to think about it, you can downsize and get that extra room that way. I am such a geeneeus.

  22. “One three-bedroom, four-bathroom Brampton townhouse was sold as a power of sale for $919,000 in December 2022, after it was bought in 2021 for $1,260,000.”

    Still cheaper than renting!

      1. Think beyond that. She could easily be cast aside.

        There’s a monster storm coming, and the Captain is always at fault.

      2. If two years of Heels Up Harris as Commander in Chief doesn’t make 2024 a landslide for Republicans, then it’s already over and we need to run to the hills.

    1. Yahoo Finance
      For the Fed, ‘3% is the new 2%’ when it comes to inflation: Morning Brief
      Alexandra Semenova
      Fri, January 13, 2023 at 2:22 AM PST·4 min read
      Friday, January 13, 2023

      Inflation slowed for a sixth-straight month in December, data out Thursday showed.

      This downtrend in price increases suggests that, at last, the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting interest rate hikes seem to be working.

      But this tool likely won’t be enough to bring inflation down to levels consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. At least not in the view of a growing number of investors.

      At an event hosted by Wilmington Trust earlier this week at Electric Lemon — a swanky restaurant atop the Equinox Hotel in Hudson Yards, New York City — the firm’s CIO Tony Roth opened evening discussions by arguing “3% is the new 2%,” referring to the Fed’s inflation target.

      “As inflation comes down — and it’s going to come down, it’s already coming down — it’s going to get stuck,” Roth said.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/for-the-fed-3-is-the-new-2-when-it-comes-to-inflation-morning-brief-102230536.html

  26. “Interest rates are like the mother’s milk of housing”

    An industry (or entire economy) dependent on government-suppressed interest rates is as healthy as a junkie addicted to heroin.

  27. So TreasonJoe had been stealing secret docs for 8 years as VP and funneling them around for his crack head son to sell off to the highest bidder.

    Sounds like high crimes to me.

  28. The US birth rate is a big determinant of future housing demand, especially when immigration is constrained.

    Has the US birth rate recovered from its long term downtrend?

    1. Personal Finance
      Population Demographics
      A decades-long broken economy screwed over millennials, and their decision to delay having kids is fueling America’s historically low birth rate
      Our analysis found that most young people still plan to become parents but are delaying childbearing.
      BY Sarah Hayford,
      Karen Benjamin Guzzo, AND The Conversation
      January 12, 2023 2:07 PM EST
      …
      https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/millennials-broken-economy-delay-children-birthrate/

    2. AP NEWS
      US birth rate falls to lowest point in more than a century
      By MIKE STOBBE
      May 5, 2021
      According to a government report released on Wednesday, May 5, 2021, the U.S. birth rate fell 4% in 2020, the largest single-year decrease in nearly 50 years. The rate dropped for moms of every major race and ethnicity, and in nearly every age group, falling to the lowest point since federal health officials started tracking it more than a century ago.
      (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

      NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. birth rate fell 4% last year, the largest single-year decrease in nearly 50 years, according to a government report being released Wednesday.

      The rate dropped for moms of every major race and ethnicity, and in nearly every age group, falling to the lowest point since federal health officials started tracking it more than a century ago.

      Births have been declining in younger women for years, as many postponed motherhood and had smaller families.

      Birth rates for women in their late 30s and in their 40s have been inching up. But not last year.

      “The fact that you saw declines in births even for older moms is quite striking,” said Brady Hamilton, of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the lead author of the new report.

      The CDC report is based on a review of more than 99% of birth certificates issued last year. The findings echo a recent Associated Press analysis of 2020 data from 25 states showing that births had fallen during the coronavirus outbreak.
      …
      https://apnews.com/article/birth-rates-science-coronavirus-pandemic-health-d51571bda4aa02eafdd42265912f1202

      1. “Birth rates for women in their late 30s and in their 40s have been inching up. But not last year.”

        It’s a young woman’s job.

    3. especially when immigration is constrained

      Didn’t we gain 5 million Nuevos Americanos last year? Not counting those who applied for visas and waited patiently for them.

  29. The tide is turning. The “Narrative” has cracks in it–there are too many studies, doctors and reports that openly call into question all aspects of the Covid-19 strategy.
    https://archive.is/Qjvyy

    I said this 2 years ago that the number of Covid-19 deaths was enormously overstated. This was caused by WHO changing the underlying cause of death for people who had positive Covid-19 tests.

    It’s just a matter of time before researchers start piling on–you can smell blood in the water. It takes time for science to formally change the course of accepted policy and dogma.

  30. The first sign that the Covid-19 vaccines are killing people will be from vital statistics showing “Excess Mortality”. Well, here are some “Excess Deaths”:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11621439/Thousands-excess-deaths-recorded-UK-2022-amid-ongoing-strikes.html
    And here’s a British cardiologist sounding the alarm:
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/01/british-cardiologist-dr-aseem-malhotra-tells-bbc-30000-excess-deaths-year-likely-linked-mrna-vaccines-video/

    Sooner or later the MSM will have to start reporting this information. It’s going to be impossible for the MSM and everyone else to ignore the pile of bodies stacking up in the morgues.

      2. Probably had a lot to do with them having received the jab then shortly thereafter getting the ‘vid.
        I had to get the jab for my federal job, so I got the J&J single-shot version. 3 weeks later I got the ‘vid, and pretty sure it’s what led to getting the longish ‘vid. Third time I’d gotten that virus, and still not dead yet!
        “I’m sure the shot kept it from getting worse” — Idiots

        1. Third time I’d gotten that virus

          Three times? Sounds like the jab effed up your immune system. I’m sorry you had to take it to keep your job.

          I still can’t wrap my head around the legality of forcing people to accept an experimental treatment or lose their job, nor why some mandates were overturned (the one that had me in its crosshairs was overturned) while others were not.

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