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Starved Of Buyers, Sellers Are Having To Come To Terms With The Reality That Their House Price May No Longer Be Worth What It Was Six Months Ago

A report from Silicon Valley. “Last year ‘just got really bumpy real quick,’ said Janine Hunt, an agent with Red Oak Realty in Oakland. ‘We knew it was coming. What goes up must come down.’ The median price of existing single-family homes in the Bay Area was $1.08 million in December, according to the California Association of Realtors. That’s an 11.5% reduction from November and a 9.6% drop from December 2021 — both the largest declines of any region in the state.”

From WTOP. “Home prices in the D.C. metro have been falling modestly for several months, but in December, the median price of what sold was lower than it was a year earlier. That hasn’t happened since 2016. The median price of what sold was $513,315 — 1.3% lower than December 2021. Home prices in the D.C. metro peaked in May 2022, and the median price is now 15% below that peak level.”

Hawaiian Real Estate Dreams. “Kona ended the year with 1,003 sales in houses, condos and land. That was 519 fewer than last year, a 34% drop. If you looked at just residential in the fourth quarter you would find a telling tale. When compared to Q4 in 2021, we had 277 sales then and only 141 now, or a 49% decrease. Average prices dropped 15% to just less than $1.1 million and days on the market increased from 20 to 34.”

The Bellevue News Democrat. “Real estate market conditions in southwestern Illinois and St. Louis have brought slowed sales and longer waits for sellers recently. The following areas saw declines, according to Zillow: 62207 median home values decreased by 21.84% to $37,377. 62206 median home values decreased by 19.8% to $39,108. 63106 median home values decreased by 18.53% to $97,103. 63120 median home values decreased by 16.76% to $39,156. 62206 median home values decreased by 7.08% to $39,108.”

Axios Detroit. “Home prices in Detroit fell in December for the first time since spring 2020. As rising interest rates make home-buying less affordable, sale prices dropped 17.2% compared to the same month last year for a median price of $66,250, according to RE/MAX’s Southeast Michigan housing report. ‘We saw prices start to taper off and at the end of the year, we saw the flip (to prices falling instead of rising) actually happen,’ Jeanette Schneider, president of the local RE/MAX, tells Axios.”

From KXAN in Texas. “The Austin housing market has ‘shifted and started to rebalance,’ with homes now spending an average of more than two months on the market. The Austin Board of Realtors President Ashley Jackson made the comments in the December edition of the board’s monthly housing market report. ‘December tells us a lot about how the market has shifted and started to rebalance as there was a sales price drop and a staggering increase in how long homes take to sell,’ Jackson said.”

“Homes that sold in December spent an average of 73 days on the market, almost triple the average from a year ago. The average is the highest since March 2012 — almost 11 years ago — when homes took on average 83 days to sell, according to ABoR data. ‘That shows the ease that a buyer may have right now on getting a house under contract,’ Jackson said. ‘For sellers, what this means is, ‘Hey, your house may sit a little bit longer on the market.'”

The New York Post. “New York City’s golden goose isn’t just losing its feathers, it’s coughing up blood, and the whole structure of government will need to adjust. Per the city Finance Department, the total value of Gotham’s commercial real estate — offices, stores and hotels — is nearly $9 billion short of its most recent high. And it’s likely headed down more, as companies downsize their office footprints and stores across the city close.”

“One of the city’s real-estate giants, Vornado, just got demoted from the S&P 500. As Finance Commissioner Preston Niblack notes, ‘The decline in office occupancy continues to impact retail stores and hotels in the city contributing to the sector’s slow recovery.’ It’s not just a drop in the property-tax take: The Finance Department projects revenue from taxes on commercial transactions to fall nearly 43% this fiscal year — about $465 million. The take from residential transfer taxes will drop 27.3% — down hundreds of millions more. Real-estate taxes are the biggest contributor to New York City’s coffers, covering a third its $106.4 billion budget. Expected future property taxes are also the main backing for Gotham’s $40 billion or so in general-obligation bonds.”

From Motley Fool. “Few were hit as hard as Redfin. Even after a recent rebound, Redfin is down by nearly 95% from its highs. Plus, Redfin made a couple of big acquisitions that (in hindsight) were a case of terrible timing. In 2021, Redfin acquired RentPath for $608 million in cash, and then in April 2022 the company bought mortgage lender Bay Equity Home Loans at the height of the housing boom for $137.8 million. Combined, these deals cost more than Redfin’s entire current market cap and are a big reason Redfin’s debt load went from $146 million heading into 2020 to nearly $1.7 billion now. Fortunately, RedfinNow was relatively small compared with some other iBuyers, but Redfin still reported more than $300 million in inventory at the end of the third quarter of 2022.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “The Vancouver region is poised for a record year of condo completions, with 20,468 presale units scheduled for occupancy by year’s end, according to Zonda Urban, marketing analysts. The completion of these condos, often referred to as presales or preconstruction units, is 53 per cent higher this year than the record year of 2021. More than half the units to be completed this year are in high-rise towers. If the lender now values the unit at less than the purchase price, the borrower may no longer qualify for the mortgage amount. That would mean the buyer would have to find the money to make up the difference in value, or try to sell the unit, known as an assignment sale.”

“‘Think of the thousands of presale agreements that are coming up for closing this year,’ says Ron Usher, real estate lawyer and general counsel for the Society of Notaries Public of B.C. ‘Did those people understand the cost of their mortgaging?’ he asks. ‘Did they predict what they thought the value would be? We are seeing collapsing deals of appraisals coming in that are not supporting values. That will be one of the more interesting stories this year, in Vancouver and Toronto particularly. What is going to happen with all these completing presales?'”

“Mortgage broker Alex McFadyen said that most buyers are not aware of the risk. ‘Some properties have appraised at value, but others have been appraising at far under value – as much as a couple of hundred thousand,’ he said. ‘I can confirm that this is happening and will likely continue to be the case over the course of this year. Some individuals have been able to come up with the cash difference, whether it be from the equity of their homes or a gift or savings.'”

This Is Money. “Seven in 10 estate agents say home sellers are being unrealistic about what their properties are worth, according to estate agent membership body, Propertymark. Sellers might get away with that in a hot market, but at the moment demand among those buying homes is on the wane. Data from the Bank of England. It found that new mortgages for property purchases dropped 75 per cent compared with the previous three months. Starved of buyers, sellers are having to come to terms with the reality that their house price may no longer be worth what it was six months ago.”

“It may take time for many sellers to accept the reality of what their home is now worth. Henry Pryor, professional buying agent says: ‘Usually about 1.2million homes are sold every year, but I am expecting a few as 800,000 this year as sellers sit on their hands waiting to see if they can hold out for the price they had hoped they would have got last year.'”

The Independent. “The pausing of construction work at a high-profile Dublin docklands site of 700 high-end apartments, where groundworks had been underway, is seen as just the most public example of the collapse of the apartment building sector in Ireland. ‘Apartments are most definitely dead in the ground,’ said one construction industry source. ‘There’s not a PRS [private rental scheme] person left in Dublin. I’m not aware of anyone in the industry at the moment who is talking to any of the PRS people about funding or developing an apartment complex for them.'”

“‘Builders are building the houses, but are holding off on the apartments – sometimes in the hope that eventually the local authority or an approved housing body will step in and pre-purchase the apartment block,’ said a construction industry source. ‘If the State doesn’t step in, then who is going to pay for them? We won’t be able to sell a two-bed apartment in Clonmel for €480,000 when you can buy a house around the corner for €310,000.'”

From NL Times. “Prices of existing owner-occupied homes fell again in December compared to the previous month. Home prices dropped 2.3 percent compared to November – the strongest decrease in ten years, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the Land Registry reported. Prices have been weakening for five consecutive months. The price decrease measured by CBS is not yet as extreme as the decrease recently reported by the Dutch association of realtors NVM. According to the real estate agents, house prices fell by 6.4 percent annually in the past quarter. CBS only processes house sales when civil-law notaries register them with the Land Registry. The NVM figures are incomplete but are based on the moment the purchase contract is signed. That is sooner, meaning the NVM can often identify trends earlier.”

“Economists recently pointed out that most homeowners need not worry about the price falls for now. However, people who bought a house last year at the peak of the housing market will feel the fall in house prices if they want to sell their home now, ABN Amro economist Philip Bokeloh said. ‘That be a reason not to divorce or to keep a house.'”

From Al Jazeera. “When much of the world went through a major recession in 2008-2009, China, through enormous government spending efforts, managed to weather the storm and buoy the global economy. With the world tottering ‘perilously close’ to a global recession, a repeat of a Chinese-led recovery seems less likely. Over the coming years, however, China’s growth rate will slow down to between 2 and 5 percent, according to estimates by economists Al Jazeera spoke with.”

“And even that masks a shift that has already been under way, said economist Michael Pettis, a Beijing-based senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Focusing on GDP numbers risks missing the forest for the trees – such figures only give an incomplete, time-delayed picture of the Chinese economy. ‘The high-growth era seems to be ending now as per the numbers, but actually, in terms of productive investment, it ended around 10 to 15 years ago,’ he told Al Jazeera.”

“Pettis said GDP – used initially to measure Western economies – is not built-for-purpose for capturing anomalies caused by China’s ‘soft budget constraints,’ which refers to a model where the state steps in to cover for spending in excess of income earned from a project. For instance, a sewage system built in the Gobi Desert and one in Beijing might add the same value to China’s GDP, despite the former having little economic value. ‘[In China], you can continue losing money for a very long time if it’s politically necessary… but it’s not reflective of the underlying productive capacity of the economy,’ he said.”

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This Post Has 110 Comments

  1. ‘Plus, Redfin made a couple of big acquisitions that (in hindsight) were a case of terrible timing. In 2021, Redfin acquired RentPath for $608 million in cash, and then in April 2022 the company bought mortgage lender Bay Equity Home Loans at the height of the housing boom for $137.8 million. Combined, these deals cost more than Redfin’s entire current market cap and are a big reason Redfin’s debt load went from $146 million heading into 2020 to nearly $1.7 billion now’

    Where’s aww shucks Glen? Yer fooked funny man, good luck dumping $300 million in falling shacks.

  2. ‘If the State doesn’t step in, then who is going to pay for them? We won’t be able to sell a two-bed apartment in Clonmel for €480,000 when you can buy a house around the corner for €310,000’

    That’s quite a pickle construction industry source.

    1. a two-bed apartment in Clonmel for €480,000 when you can buy a house around the corner for €310,000’

      You don’t say….🤣 You mean that happens outside of the US?

      Don’t forget…. Markets are hyper local now…… No more location location location.🤣🤣🤣

      Celebration, FL Housing Prices Crater 24% YOY As Plunging Demand Sends Florida Housing Market Into A Tailspin

      https://www.movoto.com/celebration-fl/market-trends/

    2. Ireland is struggling to absorb 50-60k “Ukrainian” refugees during a massive housing crisis.

      I put that in quotes because no one knows where a lot of these people claiming to be Ukrainian are actually coming from.

      Some of them are showing up and signing up for government supplied refugee housing and then turning around and renting it out.

      I saw one story about a Ukraine woman struggling to get by in the US in NYC for 7 years so she flew to Dublin and claimed to be a refugee and got signed up for the platinum refugee package of government hand outs.

      Speaking of which, Germany to announce it is sending tanks i to Ukraine. Russia will face off against German tanks for the first time since Hitlers operation Barbarossa. WWII is here. No turning back now. This would seem to be the crossing of the rubicon. NATO has been angling for WWIII and it appears they are going to get it.

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11671943/Germany-FINALLY-agrees-send-crucial-tanks-Ukraine.html

      1. “Russia will face off against German tanks for the first time since Hitlers operation Barbarossa.”

        The current Russian conscript build-up will soon out-number the Ukrainian militia fighters 10 to 1, maybe more depending on causalities. The fight has to move to air power with JDAMs, or it’s game over for NATO’s corrupt darling.

          1. The JDAMs are very cheap being a dumb gravity bomb with an attachment enabling it to correct its flight to a fixed target in any weather condition whereas the rockets launched from the HIMARS is probably two orders of magnitude more expensive since it has a solid fuel launch booster, an in-flight rocket, a total navigation system able to correct for moving targets and a variety of high tech warheads. The two popular JDAMs are 1,000-lb or 2,500-lb ordinance whereas the artillery rockets only carry 180-lb ordinance.

        2. Russia will face off against German tanks

          Things are getting complicated. The Duran says any tanks from Germany will be delivered to Poland, who is mustering an additional 300,000 troops.

          how long until NATO runs out of those?

          or the F15 to fly them? Could we be stupid enough to fly our jets against Russia? I hope not. Anyway, Boeing thanks you.

        3. Russia is winning.

          I want the U.S. to pull out of this now and forever, and let Europe deal with Europe’s problems. Not another dollar to Zelensky.

  3. ‘We knew it was coming. What goes up must come down’

    Easy come easy go bay aryans You can see the sh$thole phenomenon is starting to show it’s ugly head. These Michigan and Illinois shacks never had any bizness going up 40%. Right Jerry?

    2. We knew it was coming…we just didn’t say anything at the time to any of the buyers. Sorry not sorry.

  4. That’s an 11.5% reduction from November and a 9.6% drop from December 2021 — both the largest declines of any region in the state.”

    Is that a lot?

  5. “Homes that sold in December spent an average of 73 days on the market, almost triple the average from a year ago. The average is the highest since March 2012 — almost 11 years ago — when homes took on average 83 days to sell, according to ABoR data.

    Get to sawin’ and slashin’, greedheads. Unless of course you’d rather chase down a cratering market.

  6. ‘The high-growth era seems to be ending now as per the numbers, but actually, in terms of productive investment, it ended around 10 to 15 years ago’

    ‘Pettis said GDP – used initially to measure Western economies – is not built-for-purpose for capturing anomalies caused by China’s ‘soft budget constraints,’ which refers to a model where the state steps in to cover for spending in excess of income earned from a project. For instance, a sewage system built in the Gobi Desert and one in Beijing might add the same value to China’s GDP, despite the former having little economic value. ‘[In China], you can continue losing money for a very long time if it’s politically necessary… but it’s not reflective of the underlying productive capacity of the economy’

    This is an interesting article. Not what the globalist scum media usually peddles about China-ron. How many posts have we seen about thousands upon thousands of 5 star hotels build without regard to demand. Globalism is dead and China is the dead man walking.

    The gringos that loaned money to these commie bashtards are fooked. Nothing is going to turn this basketcase around. And all that pollution was for nothing.

    1. “This is an interesting article. Not what the globalist scum media usually peddles about China-ron. How many posts have we seen about thousands upon thousands of 5 star hotels build without regard to demand. Globalism is dead and China is the dead man walking.”

      “The gringos that loaned money to these commie bashtards are fooked. Nothing is going to turn this basketcase around. And all that pollution was for nothing.“

      +1

      – Free markets work with appropriate guard rails.
      – Socialism/Communism (is there really any difference?) picks winners and losers independent of actual economic and financial conditions and merits.
      – Outcomes are predictably poor. History is littered with the corpses of failed Communist States.
      – The U.S. is now on a similar trajectory as enabled by fiat currency and the Fed (and Congress).
      – Capitalism raises all boats. Communism only raises the elite’s yachts. Think CCP members in China or the plutocracy in the U.S. Comforting lies or unpleasant truths. The reader can decide.

      1. – Free markets work with appropriate guard rails in the absence of interference in the market via price fixing and market rigging measures facilitiated by regulatory capture elements within government.

        fixt for ya.

      2. China is not communist. It is authoritarian. Communism is merely the leader’s promise to hurt a group of people in society in exchange for power. The ideology unpinning the promise to hurt is secondary to the desire to hurt. Mao spent his entire career hurting the enemies of his most fervent supporters. He even famously nearly eradicated the sparrow because it was the enemy of the farmer and caused famine. Mao is gone and the communism is gone now too. China is a state driven capitalist but authoritarian society, there’s hardly any communism left. There’s simply no internal enemy left to point fingers at. I know this is not a widely accepted opinion but it is true and makes sense to me.

        1. My husband would agree with you. He believes that there are essentially two forms of government: authoritarian or republic. Choose wisely.

    2. I read somewhere that GDP manipulation was driving the construction of the ghost cities too. As in “we must achieve X billions of dollars in housing GDP, so at a rate of 0.2X/ghost city, go out and build 5 ghost cities.” No wonder the things are falling apart.

      1. I often wonder if our housing bubbles (Ibuy, etc) and unicorn tech companies are not, more or less, the same as China’s ghost cities. Just a completely and totally unproductive waste of resources.

    1. Most people would receive one shot to restore their protection against the virus moving forward, according to the briefing document. This would apply to people who have been exposed to the virus’s spike protein at least twice, either through vaccination or infection.

      Just one more jab, and you’ll never need another one again! We pinky swear!

        1. You’re right.

          Meanwhile, looking at the worldometers website, new infections rates are low and still dropping, even though it is supposed to be the core season, the “winter of illness and death”. Why would any healthy person want a jab, other than fear?

        2. They STILL want to treat this as flu. Wash your hands (COVID doesn’t spread on hands), mask and social distance (too contagious), get a shot every year (f*ck you).

      1. Japan has reclassified Covid-19 to the same level as the seasonal flu. China has dropped all of its crazy measures to combat Covid-19. Sweden and Denmark went back to normal ages ago. Covid-19 deaths in this country are almost undetectable. So what’s this news from the FDA about?

        1. There is no logic to it. As I mentioned the other day I had the coof in 2021. I called the doctor’s office to let them know. Their only advice: to get jabbed after I recovered.

          I remember the media back then shrieking that the jab offered better protection than natural immunity. That was when there was zero doubt in my mind that there was an ulterior motive for a needle in every arm, and it had absolutely nothing to do with public health.

          2. Three years into a National Emergency Use Authorization.

            It, along with other mRNA jabs, will still be under EUA years from now.

  8. 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗥𝗶𝗱𝗴𝗲, 𝗖𝗢 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟭% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗧𝗼 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟴

    https://www.movoto.com/wheat-ridge-co/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘚𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦.”

      1. If you compared [summation] total of all the NOx emissions from all those household gas stoves, how would that value compare with, say, a single volcano eruption. (i.e. Hawaii Kīlauea volcano within Halemaʻumaʻu crater, January 5, 2023).

        Does that mean we are going to outlaw volcano eruptions?

          1. Don’t have time at the moment to do detailed research, but me thinks the differential between minuscule NOx emissions from household stoves vs. thousands of tons of noxious gases [including NOx] spewed from a typical volcano eruption, (of which many are happening on planet earth) represents a difference of at least several orders of magnitude.

          2. There is no doubt that taking our gas stoves away has nothing to do with health or the environment. It’s about control. Having control == having power, and power is what they crave incessantly.

            Meanwhile, some clown on the Colorado Sun was yammering that his heat pump worked flawlessly during the recent deep freeze, and that therefore we shouldn’t allow any new or replacement gas furnaces to be installed. No word, of course, on how all that needed extra electricity will be generated.

            They want you to freeze in the dark, because it means they have power over you.

          3. “…No word, of course, on how all that needed extra electricity will be generated….”

            Seems to me that even if heat pumps magically [efficently] worked as advertised, relying 100% electric power is a very, very bad idea simply because it represents a single point of failure.

            Perhaps the writer from the Colorado Sun, should visit the nearest airport and ask himself why all commercial jetliners are equipped with a minimum of *two* jet engines.

            Statistics, math and science can be a real b*tch if they don’t fit the narrative!

          4. “all that needed extra electricity”

            Still waiting on the AI tech that can create this and the robots who will allegedly troubleshoot and re-wire tenant finish commercial buildings. Yeah… OKAY

        2. Forget the volcano. The unnecessary carbon created during yearly Davos would be equivalent to that of million suvs around the world.

          1. The “balance point” of a heat pump is where the auxiliary heat (gas furnace or electric heating coils) kick in. Typically, this is set at 30-35 degrees F. The bottom line is that when it gets REALLY cold, a heat pump by itself cannot keep you warm.

          3. “The bottom line is that when it gets REALLY cold, a heat pump by itself cannot keep you warm.”

            Agreed. Below freezing the heat pump’s thermal efficiency drops off while the compressor’s mechanical effort continues to reduce the life of the system. It’s best to switch to alternate heating.

          4. According to this guy, his heat pump worked at -20F

            He probably wouldn’t know if the unit switched over to aux electric heat strips.

          5. Below freezing the heat pump’s thermal efficiency drops off

            A workaround is to use ground water instead of outside air. Expensive I would imagine.

          6. Heat pump theory borders on the perpetual motion machine. It’s Trane and the rest pimping new equipment. They’re in the same category as indirect fired water heaters. More capital cost, more equipment to maintain for questionable benefits.

  12. A reader sent these in:

    “I just finished a full day in DFW bankruptcy court. The place was packed with real estate #bankruptcy cases. 80 of em in 1 of 20 courts” Quote from a local source who wishes to remain anonymous

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1617526178230804480

    He also said it was a mix of both CRE and residential. The CRE cases were complex, with some property owners having unregistered lenders and equity partners with “byzantine ownership structures”

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1617528646679556096

    “Home-loan bank advances are superior to all other debt, meaning that in the event of a member bank’s bankruptcy, an FHLB bank would be first in the collection pecking order, even ahead of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp…”

    https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1616971197463539714

    Someone should tell them now before they have to sell for a loss in 2yrs

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1617612092877701121

    The Fed has said that an “unwarranted easing in financial conditions” could “complicate” their inflation fight.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1617505301309136897

    Existing Home 🏡 Sales

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1617498463628918784

    Many rumors flying about Fed pivot timing and Fed desire to resist upward surge in equity market. I believe Powell wants to hold rates up with no pivot well into future, to encourage steep equities decline this year. Does not want legacy Fed let wealth gap grow more

    https://twitter.com/Halsrethink/status/1617551831323877376

    Airbnbs be like: Please make sure you put the dishes away, clean the sheets, feed our dog and mow the lawn or we will charge you an ADDITIONAL cleaning fee. Hotels be like: Bring 20 people, smoke crack in bed and leave the toilet clogged. No cleaning fee needed. Come again!

    https://twitter.com/MultifamilyMad/status/1617379524978655233

    John Wake

    The median inflation-adjusted house price in metro Phoenix is back between March and April of 2021 but is still above the peak of the last bubble.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1617549186257555457

    Most Americans make 5k per month. Rent is $2500. Imagine having only $2500 left over every month and you haven’t done anything besides pay rent.

    https://twitter.com/level941/status/1617541186759315456

    Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index now back to levels from last February. Very loose. I’m sure Powell will like that.

    https://twitter.com/Stephen_Geiger/status/1617680318466781184

    Steve Saretsky

    Since peaking in March 2022, the National Home Price index is now down a whopping 17%, the largest decline on record by a country mile.

    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1617707779288076290

    I’m not seeing much movement on seller side. Incremental 5-10k reductions are proof. I talk to a ton of people in all sectors & own a design firm. Custom home Contractors are laying off or taking tiny bathroom remodels just to keep employees on payroll.

    https://twitter.com/greatmundanee/status/1617726228664057857

    Back in the 2000-2002 bear market stocks broke above the LT trend line for a while before breaking down again and going a lot lower.

    https://twitter.com/TheLege2/status/1617710437013028866

    A chat with a realtor friend who messaged me below about 🚗 leases in 🇨🇦. “ITS EITHER THIS OR MY 🏠” 👇

    https://twitter.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1617711644897062914

    People so far under water on cars its wild. Paying almost double for a Kia Telluride. WILD

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1617710028177432584

    Auto Loan market is collapsing. 1.84% severely delinquent – Highest since 2/2009. Subprime Severe delinquency the highest since 2006. Defaults haven’t picked up….yet

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1617705625949200385

    This used car bubble was just idiotic. What were we thinking. People paying OVER NEW MSRP for a used car.

    https://twitter.com/David32375134/status/1617669553538076672

    The tiny sliver of Phoenix I follow.
    Early 2022 – <40 houses for sale
    High of 2022 - >285 houses for sale
    Early Jan 2023 – 265 houses
    Now – 275
    inventory creeping back up with January being a historically hot month in the housing market. I fully expect 350+ for sale soon

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1617695268547497984

    Trepp

    Florida Mall Loan Goes 30 Days Delinquent for First Time🚨 A $72.4 million #CMBS loan backed by 475k-sf of mall space in Wesley Chapel, FL missed payments.

    https://twitter.com/TreppWire/status/1617607102142332929

    CarDealershipGuy

    2021 G-Wagons are now selling for around *$190K* at dealer auctions. Down from over $260K just 6-9 months ago. Nature is healing.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1617655146007384066

    The stories about people trying to trade in their cars they overpaid from last year only to find they’re ridiculously upside-down and can’t cover the difference will NEVER GET OLD

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1617640893892407297

    CNBC bringing on the ceo of basically a penny stock in $3 $comp to tell us housing is near a bottom lol

    https://twitter.com/amazonholder1/status/1617621954470768640

    Interesting data putting some big tech layoffs in perspective. 🧐

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1617672785756844032

    Call with a developer friend who runs in a pretty ridiculous circle. “All of my friends have been capital called in the last 8 weeks.”

    https://twitter.com/innoc_bystander/status/1617627718560133123

    November: Fort Collins allows ADUs everywhere, upzones some areas, cuts neighborhood review requirement. December: 4,000+ protest signatures. January: Council votes to fully repeal changes

    https://twitter.com/AndyKnny/status/1617645069892481024

    More tech employees have been laid off in January 2023 than any month since the pandemic started:
    – Jan 2023: 54,224 (and counting)
    – Nov 2022: 52,135
    – Apr 2020: 26,710
    – May 2020: 25,804

    https://twitter.com/roger_lee/status/1616475767906369536

    Friend just closed on his first rental property. Calls me and says “how much longer until I’m sitting on a beach with a pina colada?” Ummm lol

    https://twitter.com/MasonKFaust/status/1617656569134714880

    Sink in a $2 million dollar new-construction house in Fairfax County, VA

    https://twitter.com/ad_mastro/status/1617273557205090312

    Does anyone else feel like maintaining a house is an entire second, very expensive full-time job

    https://twitter.com/d_feldman/status/1617585091177218051

    Realtor.com Economics

    Sabrina Speianu: The typical home spent 67 days on the market this December which is 11 days longer than the same time last year. Slower inventory turnover is primarily fueling the growth in actively listed homes

    https://twitter.com/RDC_Economics/status/1617567851619008519

    John Burns

    Good news: We did not change our New Home Sales and Pricing Market Condition grades this month for the first time in a long time.
    Bad news: The grades remain very low.

    https://twitter.com/johnburnsjbrec/status/1617510004751228928

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Only in 2023 does announcing layoffs and signaling a recession send your stock price and the stock market higher. Whether we like it or not, this is the market we have.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1617739070687547394

    The Kobeissi Letter

    Layoffs Since November:
    1. Ford: 3,200 employees
    2. Amazon: 18,000 employees
    3. Wayfair: 10% of employees
    4. Goldman Sachs: 3,000 employees
    5. Twitter: 7,700 employees
    6. Peloton: 12% of employees
    7. Microsoft: 10,000 employees
    Layoffs are beginning to spread beyond tech.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1617655918497259520

    This is the dude that monitors housing bubbles for the Federal Reserve, so they can pop them before they spark another global financial crisis.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1617715067826601985

    Fed whisperer raised concerns about inflation surging again, yet market is pricing in 200bps of rate cuts as well as 2% inflation by summer. Who will be right?

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1617664219125800960

    Ben Rabidoux

    “…we estimate that industry wide, it’s easily $200 million, probably more in fraud claims in the last 2.5 years.”
    Wow. This is a real thing –>
    How organized crime has mortgaged or sold GTA homes without owners’ knowledge

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1617631565911293952

    Historically, we’ve had a major financial failure or a credit event towards the end of a Fed rate cycle. Something almost always breaks…

    https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1617432236986630144

    Ron Butler

    Canada Needs To Start Thinking Straight About Real Estate And Housing
    Virtually everything we hear and read about Canadian Estate and Housing is a combination of strategies, tactics, theories and studies
    You never hear about the most important thing: what are our BELIEFS? 2/

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1617497735149801472

    Ron Butler

    And the first principle of that belief is LOWER HOUSE PRICES
    There’s no other solution if we accept belief #1
    It’s not rational that what used to take 2.5X or 3X family income to buy the average priced home 30 years ago can work at 7X or 10X today
    That’s non-negotiable

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1617497741860405249

    “The whole tech industry of the last 15 years was built by cheap money. Now they’re getting hit by a new reality, and they will pay the price.”

    https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1617563122939707412

    Liz Ann Sonders

    Leading Economic Index from ⁦@Conferenceboard
    ⁩ fell again in December, -7.4% y/y vs. -6.1% in prior month … decline increasingly consistent with prior recessions

    https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1617540188489523201

    ‘Traders have often marshaled one last big bounce before they sensed that the economy was really, truly going to pieces. The Fed was often winding down a rate hike campaign but it was still too early to see the full consequences (sound familiar?)’ bloomberg

    https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/1617540401422041088

    1. Fort Collins allows ADUs everywhere, upzones some areas, cuts neighborhood review requirement.

      So, upscale Fort Collins was going to allow “mother in law” units, which no doubt would be rented out, either long or short term.

    2. “A reader sent these in:”

      – All posts highly symptomatic of the free money tide going out as enabled by fiat, central banks, and gooberments kicking the can for as long as possible.
      – Many house sellers still in denial and holding out for peak prices. Not different this time. Stonks in a similar psychological mindset.
      – But I’m told a soft landing is all but assured.
      – The Everything (Central Bank) Bubble is bursting. Stonks, Bonds, RE, Used Cars, and most other asset classes all going down together as the easy money is withdrawn. How is this exactly going to be a soft landing? Just combine the dot com crash with Housing Bubble 1.0 and then add moar. The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.

    3. “Only in 2023 does announcing layoffs and signaling a recession send your stock price and the stock market higher. Whether we like it or not, this is the market we have.”

      More like “only since the Fed put started.” An entire economy of people burning down their companies for the insurance money.

      “Friend just closed on his first rental property. Calls me and says “how much longer until I’m sitting on a beach with a pina colada?” Ummm lol”

      Unsound money turns your country into a casino where work, saving, and morals in general are for suckers.

      1. An entire economy of people burning down their companies for the insurance money.

        +1.

        And don’t get me started with the debt financed stock buybacks.

        Unsound money turns your country into a casino where work, saving, and morals in general are for suckers.

        +2

      2. “Unsound money turns your country into a casino where work, saving, and morals in general are for suckers.”

        – See John Law and the Mississippi Bubble. Many analogues. History may not repeat, but it does rhyme.
        – BTW, the collapse of that one and ensuing inflation was a significant contributor to the French Revolution.
        – Nothing to see here. Move along, move along…. It’s fine. /s

      3. “Unsound money turns your country into a casino where work, saving, and morals in general are for suckers.” great line!!!!!!!!

        don’t forget with no innovation and no productivity gains, which are what drive real improvement, not fake financial ones.

    4. People so far under water on cars its wild. Paying almost double for a Kia Telluride. WILD

      The banks were providing the loans. Again, it’s a CREDIT bubble. You can’t get these distortions without the banks. It’s fraud. The underlying asset was never worth what they were lending.

      1. Paying double for a KIA, or any car for that matter, is insane.

        My brother’s boss wrecked his car about a year ago and tried to buy a Telluride to replace it, until he saw the price. He settled for a Ford Exploder, and he had to wait a couple of months to get one and still a bit paid over MSRP.

        1. I’ve got my eye on a new or slightly Jeep Grand Cherokee. I don’t know how well the GC sells in January in my area but right now it appears that they aren’t selling at all. This has got to be the slowest month of all with no sales.

    5. Friend just closed on his first rental property. Calls me and says “how much longer until I’m sitting on a beach with a pina colada?” Ummm lol

      Still in the mania.

  13. It’s an interesting feature of the greater St. Louis area that local markets literally within walking distance proximity can differ in price by an order of magnitude. Clayton is where the multinationals have local offices. By contrast, 63113 is demographically challenged.

    “Homes in zip code 63113 had a median home value increase of 40.19% to $70,658 and 62240 homes had a median value increase of 30.79% to $82,938.

    The median home value in zip code 63105, in the Clayton, Mo., area, has reached $967,633, according to Zillow’s data.”

    https://www.zipdatamaps.com/63113

    1. My siblings and I put our parent’s place on the market back in 2014, in a comparable market to 63113. The BLM movement had just been born four miles to the west, in Ferguson, making it difficult to find a buyer.

      One of the people who stopped by to have a look told me he was a real estate investor. He wanted to take the place off our hands for cash and turn it into a rental. It was a good reminder that the mania hadn’t ended yet.

    1. DOW 30 -0.52%
      S&P 500 -0.54%
      NASDAQ 100 -0.29%

      What is wash trading, the fraudulent practice that some experts say accounts for 70% of transactions on crypto exchanges?
      Jennifer Sor
      Jan 16, 2023, 5:15 AM
      Crypto coins
      (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

      – Wash trading accounts for 70% of trades on some crypto exchanges, a study found.
      – The practice of firms trading with themselves to boost prices artificially may lure inexperienced investors.
      – Three experts dive into the practice and what it means for the crypto market.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/what-is-wash-trading-cryptocurrency-exchange-nber-fraud-crypto-2023-1

  16. “Mortgage broker Alex McFadyen said that most buyers are not aware of the risk. ‘Some properties have appraised at value, but others have been appraising at far under value –

    Whaaaaaa?🤡🤡🤡🤡

    Call your attorney Al….. call him now.

    Rancho Cordova, CA Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As Sacramento Area Housing Prices Slide Double Digits

    https://www.movoto.com/rancho-cordova-ca/market-trends/

  17. The Davos power mongers , who have finally become overt about announcing that its time for a New World Order, look like freaks, psychopaths and deranged wackos..
    They express that they are going to save the planet from those useless eater humans. that emit carbons.
    Can you imagine in a James Bond flick the villain Goldfinger plotting to genocide and
    enslave the human race , because they emit carbons? .
    And these stakeholders that have been in a covert echo chamber for decades ,plotting they take over World, are paranoid Parasites that want to alter or nd kill their

    1. Can you imagine in a James Bond flick the villain Goldfinger plotting to genocide and enslave the human race , because they emit carbons?

      Actually, DC Comics has such a villain: Ra’s al Ghul.

      1. DC Comics is one of the most sinister media outfits out there. I will not allow my child to partake any of their perverse “entertainment”.

  18. My experience so far renting in FL is terrible. Bunch of amateurs who buy condos and rent them out thinking it’ll make them rich. Then they get scared and sell out from under the tenants. My owner is considering selling. I’m just under 7 months into my 12 month lease (though I don’t see anything in the lease that would allow them to kick me out before the end of 12 months). Person has only owned this condo since March 2021 (I’m the second tenant). So, great. Now I likely have to find another place. But per a friend of mine down here, this is not uncommon. She’s had 2 rentals sold from under her. I’ve rented a TON over the years in Illinois and Pennsylvania and never have I experienced this. I’ll be glad when my son graduates college and I can jet. This state is not for me.

    1. As a renter, never buy anything so big you cannot move it by yourself – easily. Live light. Be able to pack up and go in a couple days. It’s very freeing.

      1. Oh, I agree. Having a home office and a spare room for my college kid makes it harder, but when I sold last summer, I downsized big time.

        1. My goal for retirement is my clothing, a few odds and ends, and little else. Stuff owns you. Packing it up and moving it around sucks really bad. I have spent close to 20 years divesting myself of as much as possible.

          2. The tops of my feet are the tannest thing on me. Unfortunately, this time of year I am compelled to wear shoes.

    3. Eastcoaster:
      Do you think your situation doesn’t exist in any other state?
      Or that every rental condo landlord in Florida does this?
      Your logic and conclusion do not seem reasonable.

      1. I’ve never known anyone who experienced it before, yet down here I’ve heard several similar stories. So, I’m sure it can happen anywhere, just seems more prevalent here.

      1. My mom sent me “away” to school. I didn’t eat as well for those years. On the other hand, no explanations were required when I didn’t return until dawn.

        2. My son’s half of his on-campus apartment rent is more than our last mortgage payment. And this is a public university!

          1. It’s crazy how expensive campus housing got during the bubble. I have two sons currently paying a pirate’s ransom to live near their universities.

  19. I love me some NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ swanky hotel illegal aliens who are released without bail after a $12,500 shopliting spree.

    ‘Texas Bus Migrants’ Arrested for Looting New York Department Store

    By Dan Lyman | INFOWARS.COM Tuesday, January 24, 2023

    Police arrested four illegal aliens suspected of looting a New York department store after being bused to the Big Apple from Texas, according to reports.

    The shoplifting spree occurred on January 9 on Long Island, but information about the suspects has just been made public.

    Four men identified as Wrallan Cabezas Meza, 19, Miguel Angel Rojas, 21, Rafael Rojas, 27, and Jose Garcia Escobar, 30, traveled from New York City to Roosevelt Field Mall in Garden City in a 2006 BMW with phony license plates, according to court documents reviewed by the New York Post.

    They are accused of stealing merchandise from Macy’s worth nearly $12,500.

    The group was reportedly caught when they were pulled over for failing to use a turn signal while driving in the nearby town of Hempstead.

    “The suspects later told a Spanish-speaking Nassau County detective that they came to New York City on a bus from the Lone Star State, Detective Lt. Richard Lebrun said,” the Post reports.

    “It was unclear when they were brought up north, but Meza crossed the US-Mexico border on July 4, 2022, and the others during September last year, according to Nassau County cops.”

    Maintain peak vigilance by taking advantage of our latest sale now!
    All four suspects were released after appearing in court on January 10, two without bail and two on bond.

    At least two of the men have been living in the Westin Hotel in Manhattan under Mayor Eric Adams’ controversial program to house illegal aliens in hotels across the city.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjElYiYjuH8AhUSRDABHaI3ABQQFnoECAkQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newswars.com%2Ftexas-bus-migrants-arrested-for-looting-new-york-department-store%2F&usg=AOvVaw2CJMZCZMZqVFfO2g18ymL6

    1. Imagine being able to go back in time to the W Bush admin and telling people what America will be like in 2023. You would have been laughed out the door.

    2. “They are accused of stealing merchandise from Macy’s worth nearly $12,500.”

      Apparently they’re unaware of the $1,000 each rule.

  20. “The Anti-Vaxxers Won!” – Admits “Dilbert” Creator Scott Adams
    The Jimmy Dore Show
    Jan 24, 2023
    Notoriously smug “Dilbert” creator Scott Adams was an outspoken advocate for the COVID vaccine — based on “analytics” he compiled himself. Now, however, Adams is changing his tune and admitting that, as he puts it, “the anti-vaxxers were right.” In a video he posted online, Adams acknowledges his error while somehow still acting as though he was right and that he only got this call wrong because he lost “a coin flip.”

    Jimmy and Americans’ Comedian Kurt Metzger marvel at Adams’ remarkable combination of arrogance and defensiveness in the midst of what is supposed to be an acknowledgement of a personal failure.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Qn0DqZeOEI

    15:37.

    1. Well, at least this guy admits he was wrong. .
      If his admissions go viral, than other people might come out of the dark.

        1. “The Anti-Vaxxers Won!”

          Just had a longer stint in the hospital than I cared for during which I contrated Covid, I was given remdesivir and never felt a thing. However two of my visiting family members (1 vaxed and 1 not) got it and had a 2 week + nasty battle with it.

          8 days into my hospital stay they tested and informed me that I had Covid. I looked at the nurse and told her I wasn’t vaccinated and I wasn’t getting vaccinated either.

          “The Anti-Vaxxers Won!”

    2. “The Anti-Vaxxers Won!”

      Like others have said, nobody “won.” We’ve been ostracized for years, and there’s no undoing that. We’ve been turned into pariahs. F*** this guy. F*** him right where the sun don’t shine. I hate him, and everybody like him. I will never like these people again. EVER. NEVER FORGET. NEVER FORGIVE.

    2. Awesome tune and jeff appreciates the post.

      Saw the movie the Wariors at URI in 1979 and remember that night eveytime I hear this song.

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