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People Weren’t Making Great Decisions

A weekend topic starting with Fortune. “A new era of higher borrowing costs and more cautious lenders—coupled with slowing growth and recession fears—has frozen once-red hot segments of the U.S. economy. Logan Allin, founder of Fin Capital, a fintech-focused VC and private equity firm, told Fortune that he doesn’t see the VC space recovering fully until 2024 due in part to the credit crunch. He gave the example of the now-defunct crypto exchange, FTX, which he ‘passed on’ because they didn’t get past basic ‘checklist items’ in the due diligence process, including not allowing an independent auditor to look at their financials. But other venture capitalists invested millions in the firm without even looking at their books. ‘They were asking for financials and the team at FTX was sending them excel spreadsheets,’ he said. ‘It was just absurd.'”

“‘In 2021, and 18 months before, people were just throwing money at anything as fast as they could because there was so much cash, but in 2022, the credit markets basically froze up,’ emphasized Jim Cahn, chief investments officer at Wealth Enhancement Group, a wealth management firm. ‘And that’s why you’re seeing these industries freeze.'”

From Market Watch. “A credit downgrade wave has begun to hit the highflying $1.4 trillion U.S. leveraged loan market as the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of interest rate hikes threatens companies hooked on cheap debt. ‘We think the last 10 years aren’t normal,’ said Danielle Poli, a co-portfolio manager of the Oaktree Diversified Income Fund. Poli pointed to potential blowback in the form of structures that ‘probably shouldn’t have gotten done’ with aggressively adjusted earnings that won’t play out. ‘At some point, we think weakness among the loan issuer base combined with elevated rates will cause an increase in defaults,’ Poli said.”

McKnight’s Senior Living. “No industry is immune to the pressures of economic uncertainty and rising inflation costs, including senior living. Whether you’re a regional provider with a mid-size footprint (6 to 10 properties) or a large real estate investment trust with more than 20 properties, sometimes offloading underperformers in the portfolio is the fiscally responsible thing to do. Blue-sky and new build construction has come to halt for many, and although some developers are on the cusp of finishing the property itself, there isn’t a pipeline to fill it. Recently, we’ve seen numerous deals come to market where a multifamily developer decided to expand into senior housing without any expertise or knowledge of the industry (other than that the person thought he or she could make some fast cash because of boomers flooding the market) and as a result couldn’t sell or fill the units. Stalled construction projects quickly are becoming sell-off assets.”

From India Today. “Amazon shocked the world by announcing large-scale layoffs earlier this month. As part of its cost-cutting spree, Amazon is now selling some of its offices. As per a Bloomberg report, Amazon will be selling an empty office in California that it bought around 16 months ago. The property was bought for USD 123 million in October 2021 in order to lock down some real estate so that it could be used in the future. Now, however, the company is selling the office and as per the report, it is under contract with a commercial real estate developer. A source told Bloomberg that Amazon might be incurring a loss on the sale.”

“An Amazon India employee recently described the upsetting atmosphere at the office after the layoffs began. The post on Grapevine, a community app for Indian professionals, by an employee writing under a pseudo name. The employee wrote, ‘About 75 per cent of my team is gone. Although I’m in the remaining 25 per cent, I don’t feel motivated to work anymore. They are firing people in cabins. People are crying in the office.'”

Bisnow Washington DC. “Atlanta-based Invesco Advisors sold a 10-year-old office building in Arlington for $30M less than its previous price, an indication of how the office market has weakened. The firm sold the 134K SF building at 1776 Wilson Blvd. in October for $59.5M, property records show. Invesco bought the building for $90.3M in 2014.”

The Scottsdale Progress in Arizona. “Managing some 5,000 short-term rentals in Scottsdale was a monumental task for the city’s staff and elected officials in 2022, and it looks to be just as daunting a job in 2023. That’s why Mayor David Ortega used his annual State of the City address Jan. 18 to call for a new zoning category for short-term rentals. He blamed the short-term rental ‘debacle’ on the state Legislature. ‘In 2015, actions taken by the Arizona Legislature essentially legalized short-term rentals everywhere, pre-empting local zoning oversight,’ Ortega said. ‘Unregulated short-term properties violate our outstanding neighborhood livability.'”

“Over-construction of multifamily complexes is just as big of a crisis for the city, Ortega said. ‘Similar to the short-term rental debacle, which originated at the Arizona Legislature, there are forces at the Legislature attempting to pre-empt our oversight of dense apartments,’ he said. ‘This a concerted national campaign by multi-housing interests to subvert our zoning rights. Their aim is to overwhelm cities like Scottsdale. Essentially with the flight of populations from dense urban cities, the multihousing interests want to cut their losses there and bring massive density here. Their lobbyists and elected sympathizers blame mayors and city councils from Peoria to Gilbert to Chandler and in-between,’ he said.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “The Bay Area did not take home as many spots as you’d think on a recent report of the most expensive places to rent in the country. In fact, we barely made it to the top 50. ‘In San Francisco, the median one-bedroom rent was close to $3,500 in July 2019. That number dropped to $2,767 by July 2021,’ said Shane Lee, a RentHop analyst who worked on the report.”

The Mountain Democrat in California. “Homeowners aren’t responsible for the policies that led us to the highest inflation in 40 years. They didn’t ask for historically low mortgage rates, high energy costs and $31 trillion in federal debt. Sure, sellers directly benefited from inflationary policies and all homeowners experienced a substantial increase in their home’s equity, but it wasn’t homeowners, builders or Realtors who initiated or advocated for an inflationary economy. They know better. Whenever we have inflation above the Fed’s target of 2% the Fed starts raising interest rates. Real estate sales and property values are the first to feel the effects and the Fed action is usually followed by a recession.”

“That correction of the housing market began six months ago. The median selling price for an El Dorado County home in June of last year was $700,000. It’s been downhill from there. July’s median selling price was $634,000 and by December the median selling price had dropped to $535,000.”

From KCRG in Iowa. “Buying a home can feel intimidating, especially for first-time homeowners and after the wild market we saw last year, but people looking to buy a home in 2023 likely won’t have to deal with low inventory and rising prices like in 2022. Demand was so high that homes were selling within hours. ‘People weren’t making great decisions,’ said Robert Stiles with Revolution Reality in Cedar Rapids.”

From CTV News. “An Ontario man says he is ‘devastated’ after spending his entire life savings in an investment scam he got involved in from a YouTube video he watched. ‘I’m devastated. It ruined me, and it’s my life savings gone,’ said Stephen Carr of Meaford, Ont. Online investment scams continue to be a massive problem in Canada, and Carr is one of many victims. According to the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre, 2021 saw $379 million in fraudulent losses in Canada, with the number one cause for loss being cryptocurrency fraud.”

“Carr said he was on YouTube when he saw a video that promised he could make large amounts of money trading commodities, foreign currencies and cryptocurrencies. He said he contacted the company and started off with an initial amount of $250 to invest. When that appeared to be growing, he put in another $2,500. At one point, Carr asked for a $1,000 withdrawal, which he received and gave him confidence the website was legitimate. After that, from a period in October 2022 to January 2023, Carr invested his life savings of $498,000.”

“‘What I didn’t know at the time is this trading platform I was on was a simulation, it wasn’t connected to anything, like a flight simulator that’s not connected to a real airplane,’ he said. Carr became concerned when he thought his funds had grown to 1.3 million and wanted to take some out. But, he was told he would have to pay a $150,000 liquidation provision to get his money. ‘I got conned, and in hindsight, I put a ridiculous amount of money in this and a ridiculous amount of trust in these people,’ said Carr. ‘I’m devastated. I’m in the process of selling my house and have to reorganize my life. I’ve got maybe two or three months of useable cash left, and that’s it.'”

Stuff New Zealand. “House prices might be in reverse right now but there are still plenty of people who think the property ladder is more like a golden escalator. And they expect regular escalator service to resume. At the end of last year property prices fell at a decreasing rate because some thought the market had hit bottom and tried jumping back in.”

“But a lot has changed since 2020 when a tidal wave of demand met a static wall of supply and prices shot up: there are tax changes around interest deductibility, faster consenting processes, allowances for more density in big cities and a ramped-up public housing build. Even if interest deductibility is reversed the Reserve Bank could pare back lending on residential property by implementing debt-to-income limits – curbing the ability of property investors to borrow on their existing portfolios to buy new properties. That has CoreLogic’s Nick Goodall thinking that when the market bounces back we might not see the same rapid price escalation as in the past; instead prices might just rise in line with incomes.”

“‘When you look at a lot of analysis that’s been done on the main factors that have caused the strong increase in house prices over the last few decades, you do start to think, actually, maybe some of these fundamental factors are starting to change,’ he said.”

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  1. 𝗢𝗿𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗼, 𝗙𝗟 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟭% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗨𝗦 𝗜𝗻 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗮𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀

    https://www.movoto.com/orlando-fl/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘖𝘳𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘰 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵, “𝘠𝘰𝘶 𝘣𝘦𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘴𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳.”

  2. ‘The median selling price for an El Dorado County home in June of last year was $700,000. It’s been downhill from there. July’s median selling price was $634,000 and by December the median selling price had dropped to $535,000’

    Good thing everybody put 30% down.

  3. ‘Recently, we’ve seen numerous deals come to market where a multifamily developer decided to expand into senior housing without any expertise or knowledge of the industry (other than that the person thought he or she could make some fast cash because of boomers flooding the market) and as a result couldn’t sell or fill the units. Stalled construction projects quickly are becoming sell-off assets’

    That’s some recession proof right there.

  4. ‘Amazon will be selling an empty office in California that it bought around 16 months ago. The property was bought for USD 123 million in October 2021 in order to lock down some real estate so that it could be used in the future’

    He he…

  5. ‘I got conned, and in hindsight, I put a ridiculous amount of money in this and a ridiculous amount of trust in these people,’ said Carr. ‘I’m devastated. I’m in the process of selling my house and have to reorganize my life. I’ve got maybe two or three months of useable cash left, and that’s it’

    About selling that shack Steve, you might want to sit down.

    1. “I’ve spoken to several recovery firms, but a lot of them are in the same boat and are fraudulent themselves,” said Carr.

      Predation is a biological interaction where one organism, the predator, kills and eats another organism, its prey.

  6. ‘The Bay Area did not take home as many spots as you’d think on a recent report of the most expensive places to rent in the country. In fact, we barely made it to the top 50’

    Wa? Not expensive?

    ‘In San Francisco, the median one-bedroom rent was close to $3,500 in July 2019. That number dropped to $2,767 by July 2021’

    How do those 5% cap rates look now? Actually we once read about 3% cap rates around there.

  7. ‘A credit downgrade wave has begun to hit the highflying $1.4 trillion U.S. leveraged loan market as the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of interest rate hikes threatens companies hooked on cheap debt’

    Is that a lot?

    ‘We think the last 10 years aren’t normal’…Poli pointed to potential blowback in the form of structures that ‘probably shouldn’t have gotten done’

    They are junk bonds Danielle. It’s one thing to lower rates, it’s another to keep them there.

    1. “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

  8. 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗲, 𝗖𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟯% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗮 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀

    https://www.movoto.com/placerville-ca/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘚𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘫𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘥, “𝘌𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘮𝘺 2011 𝘣𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘸𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳.”

  9. “‘In 2021, and 18 months before, people were just throwing money at anything as fast as they could because there was so much cash, but in 2022, the credit markets basically froze up,’ emphasized Jim Cahn, chief investments officer at Wealth Enhancement Group, a wealth management firm.

    Gosh, who knew that the Fed’s deranged money printing would have unintended consequences.

  10. The firm sold the 134K SF building at 1776 Wilson Blvd. in October for $59.5M, property records show. Invesco bought the building for $90.3M in 2014.”

    It was only Yellen Bux.

  11. Essentially with the flight of populations from dense urban cities, the multihousing interests want to cut their losses there and bring massive density here.

    Globalists gonna globe.

  12. That’s why Mayor David Ortega used his annual State of the City address Jan. 18 to call for a new zoning category for short-term rentals. He blamed the short-term rental ‘debacle’ on the state Legislature.

    A Democrat-controlled state legislature that blatantly rigs elections has no qualms about accepting stuffed brown envelopes from STR lobbyists.

    1. Not only were both houses solidly republican, it was a republican guvnah that did this too. And they made the election steals possible too. You might want to reevaluate.

  13. “An Ontario man says he is ‘devastated’ after spending his entire life savings in an investment scam he got involved in from a YouTube video he watched. ‘I’m devastated. It ruined me, and it’s my life savings gone,’ said Stephen Carr of Meaford, Ont.

    Stephen, it could be the sole point of your existence is to serve as a warning to others.

    1. even when i was a teenager i was taught to diversify, the only time maybe you go all in is if its your business and it’s your labor and you are willing to take that entrepreneurial chance.

      2. I forget who said this. I think it was Ric Edelman: “The only reason to put all your eggs in one basket is greed.” I’ve never forgotten that. Of course, you can make some exception for cash and other instruments where the goal is preservation and not profit.

    1. Remember who threatened to get you FIRED FROM YOUR JOB for not getting injected with this poison? Remember who?

      Remember all the scum media cheerleaders and other Blue Checkmarks who advocated for vaccine mandates and vaccine passports? Remember who?

      You will not be forgotten.

      Never forgive, never forget.

      1. And they’re still doing it. Jab mandates are still prevalent for government jobs state, local and federal.

    2. But, they aren’t taking the fake vaccines off the market. .
      These criminals claim the explosion of excess mortality must be caused by
      -lockdowns
      -video games
      -people not taking their medications during lockdowns
      – climate change
      -stress
      -young people have heart attacks to
      –cold showers, etc
      The thing is that you have perfect control groups like the unvaxxed, or Countries that didn’t take the vaccine that prove Its the clot shot causing the epic health problems..
      This is just willful negligence on the part of of the captive Health agencies to promote what Big Pharmacy wants, being their cash cow expiermental failure vaccine.
      Big Pharmacy controls Medical system, Science,,,Health Agencies, sell out politicians and governments and the main stream news.
      These Pharmacy killers are in collusion with the enemies that are trying to
      take over the World.

      In summary, at Davos, Goldfinger( Klaus Schwab) claimed that ” free speech” was the biggest obstacle to his vision of future.
      A vision of a One World Order in which monopoly corporations in cahoots with United Nations, China and sell out governments genocide and enslave humanity. A forced agenda in which humanity has no say so in their destiny.
      They rig elections to put Puppets in, and Biden is a treasonous sell out to the One World Order, build back better, Great reset
      destruction of US.
      These Entities infiltrated and corrupted just about everything , to take over.
      We live under constant attack by these masterminds that have launched their evil crimes against humanity.
      So, they won’t take the poison off the market, and they will just ignore the data and continue to cover up the death/injury.
      So, the people have to reject the poison that they want to inject over and over again
      until you snuff. As Dr Yeadon expresses , ” They are lying to you about everything.”

      1. and Biden is a treasonous sell out

        Don’t you first have to be walking a straight line to be considered a “sell out”?

  18. Southern California housing market cools, how long will it last?
    KCAL News
    Jan 27, 2023
    Across the Southland, home prices have been falling as interest rates have been climbing. From May 2022 to December 2022, prices have dropped 11% in Orange County, 10% in Los Angeles County, 8% in Riverside County, and 6% in San Bernardino County.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5c2J4XGmTw

    2 minutes.

      1. “This party is just beginning.”

        How about dissolving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and selling their holdings without any guarantees or warrantees?

      2. “Dude, that’s just wrong.”

        Or did you mean…

        “While Google’s stock is worth $95.22 on Thursday, shares fell nearly $5 after the government announced the lawsuit.”

        Pelosis sell up to $3 million in Google stock weeks before Justice Department files antitrust suit

        By Madeleine Hubbard
        January 26,

        Congresswoman and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her husband sold 30,000 shares of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, in a transaction worth up to $3 million, weeks before the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against the tech giant.

        From Dec. 20 to Dec. 28, the Pelosis sold $1.5 million to $3 million in Alphabet stocks, making an undisclosed profit, according to a federal filing. At the time, those stocks were trading for $86–$89 a share, according to Google Finance.

        Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, is an investor.

        About one month later, on Tuesday, the Justice Department and eight state attorneys general filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google for allegedly monopolizing advertisements across the internet.

        While Google’s stock is worth $95.22 on Thursday, shares fell nearly $5 after the government announced the lawsuit.

        https://justthenews.com/government/congress/pelosis-sell-3-million-google-stock-weeks-justice-department-files-antitrust

        1. “Congresswoman and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her husband sold 30,000 shares of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, in a transaction worth up to $3 million, weeks before the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against the tech giant.”

          Female intuition?

  21. 𝗟𝗮𝘀 𝗩𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘀, 𝗡𝗩 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟳% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗢𝗻 𝗣𝗹𝘂𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲

    https://www.movoto.com/las-vegas-nv/market-trends/

    𝘈 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘪𝘴𝘩𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘥, “𝘞𝘩𝘺 𝘣𝘶𝘺 𝘢 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘩𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵. 𝘉𝘶𝘺 𝘪𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘧𝘰𝘳 70% 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴.”

  22. Are a lot of Congress critters on the hook for cryptocurrency losses? With enough political support, perhaps new life blood could enter the cryptospace…like SBF sought before he suddenly exited the scene in November 2022.

      1. Sen. Ted Cruz Wants Capitol Hill Vending Machines to Accept Crypto
        If the Texas senator’s resolution is passed, his congressional colleagues and Capitol Hill visitors will be able to buy some Pringles with bitcoin while burning the midnight oil.
        By Cheyenne Ligon
        AccessTimeIconJan 26, 2023 at 2:19 p.m. PST
        Updated Jan 27, 2023 at 12:48 p.m. PST
        …
        https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/01/26/sen-ted-cruz-wants-to-force-capitol-hill-vending-machines-to-accept-crypto/

        1. Ted Cruz bought up to $50K in bitcoin last month during price dip
          By Thomas Barrabi
          February 7, 2022 10:28am Updated
          Sen. Ted Cruz bought somewhere between $15,001 and $50,000 in bitcoin in January. Getty Images

          Count Sen. Ted Cruz among those who are betting that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are set for a rebound in the coming months.

          Cruz (R-Texas) bought between $15,001 and $50,000 of bitcoin in a transaction dated Jan. 25, according to a Senate financial disclosure. The Texas senator made the purchase on River Financial, a leading digital marketplace for bitcoin.

          The timing of Cruz’s purchase indicates he “bought the dip” on bitcoin. A single token of the leading cryptocurrency was worth approximately $36,980 on Jan. 25, according to Coin Base. Bitcoin’s price was down a considerable amount from its peak in November, when one token was worth $69,000.

          Assuming Cruz still owns the bitcoin, he already stands to benefit from the purchase. Bitcoin’s price hovered near $43,000 as of Monday morning.

          Cointelegraph was first to report on Cruz’s disclosure.

          Cruz is one of several US lawmakers who are bullish on the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

          Last August, Cruz joined fellow cryptocurrency touts, including Twitter founder Jack Dorsey and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, in opposing a proposal for President Biden’s Build Back Better Act that would tax digital currency transactions.

          “The infrastructure deal contains DANGEROUS provisions that would devastate crypto and blockchain innovation,” Cruz tweeted at the time.

          In November, Cruz backed a resolution to allow vendors active on Capitol Hill to accept cryptocurrencies as payment.

          As The Post previously reported, New York City Mayor Eric Adams requested his first three paychecks be converted into cryptocurrencies — a plan that hasn’t resulted in a windfall for his finances so far.

          Bitcoin’s price hovered near $43,000 as of Monday morning.
          Bitcoin’s price hovered near $43,000 as of Monday morning.

          Analysts have attributed the plunge in cryptocurrency prices since last November to various factors, including geopolitical tensions in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, fears of regulation in China and Russia and mounting concerns about the Federal Reserve’s plan to hike interest rates.

          Downturns in crypto prices have coincided with plunges in US tech stocks on several occasions, as investors shed riskier assets to prepare for tighter economic conditions. The selloff has sparked fears among some prognosticators, including analysts at UBS, about a coming “crypto winter,” or long-term crash in prices.

          But bitcoin and other leading digital currencies have pared some losses in recent days, stoking optimism that the downturn will end sooner than expected.
          …
          https://nypost.com/2022/02/07/ted-cruz-bought-the-bitcoin-dip-in-january-filing-shows/

          1. ‘…he “bought the dip” on bitcoin. A single token of the leading cryptocurrency was worth approximately $36,980 on Jan. 25,…’

            In tetrospect, it looks like he bought himself a ticket to the bottom of a CR8R.

    2. Why El Salvador’s Bukele Is Doubling Down on Bitcoin Despite the Crypto Crash
      President of El Salvador Nayib Bukele speaks during the inauguration of the ISA World Surfing Games 2021 on May 29, 2021 in La Libertad, El Salvador. (Rolan Barrientos— APHOTOGRAFIA/Getty Images)
      By Ciara Nugent
      November 25, 2022 9:41 AM EST

      The cryptocurrency crisis, worsened by the dramatic collapse of fast-growing crypto exchange FTX in mid-November, has raised questions about the future of these digital currencies. Bitcoin, the largest and most well known among them, has fallen to a two-year low in recent days. But one of the cryptocurrency’s most prominent backers is doubling down.

      On Nov. 17, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, who last year made his country the first in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, responded to the crypto slide with a pledge that the government would purchase one Bitcoin every day going forward. On Nov. 22, Bukele’s administration sent a bill to El Salvador’s Congress that would allow it to sell $1 billion in so-called “volcano bonds”—government debt, denominated in U.S. dollars and paying out 6.5% interest a year to bond holders—in order to buy even more of the cryptocurrency and build a coastal “Bitcoin City.”

      It may be difficult to understand why Bukele remains so enthusiastic about a policy that has beenalmost all metrics, a disaster. Bukele’s attempt to get Salvadorans to use the notoriously volatile cryptocurrency has left the country looking like a much riskier place to invest. The policy has stalled El Salvador’s negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $1.3 billion loan, needed to plug big gaps in its public finances. Bukele’s government has been courting alternative sources of cash, announcing new trade talks with China on Nov. 9. But few economists believe Salvadoran vice president Félix Ulloa’s claim that China is willing to help El Salvador with the all-time-high $21 billion debt burden it owes to foreign lenders. If it can’t find new creditors to help service that debt, El Salvador runs the risk of a default early next year.
      …
      https://time.com/6236899/el-salvador-bukele-bitcoin-crash/

    3. Companies • November 18, 2022, 2:22PM EST
      Binance had ‘at minimum ill-intent’ in revoked FTX proposal: Sen. Ted Cruz
      by Catarina Moura
      the block

      Quick Take
      – Sen. Ted Cruz said that the speed at which Binance offered to buy FTX and later backed out “suggests at a minimum ill intent.”
      – The senator spoke in support of bitcoin mining expansion during the Texas Blockchain Council on Friday.

      Sen. Ted Cruz said that Binance showed “at minimum ill intent” regarding the offer it made and quickly took back to buy FTX last week.

      Noting the speed of Binance’s public offer to buy its troubled rival, then rapid withdrawal, Cruz told The Block, “All of that suggests at a minimum ill intent. And that’s worrisome. I think that is certainly worthy of considerable additional examination.”

      In a brief interview following an appearance at the Texas Blockchain Summit in Austin, Cruz added that it “could make a lot of sense” for FTX’s former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee, which he sits on.

      The House Financial Services Committee already announced a hearing on the FTX implosion and its implications for the broader digital asset industry earlier this week. The committee’s top Republican told The Block this week that Binance’s role in FTX’s demise is under congressional scrutiny.

      But in Cruz’s view that doesn’t let FTX off the hook.

      “There’s no doubt that at least initial reports suggest that an enormous amount of financial mismanagement and potentially fraud was occurring and investors have faced billions in losses,” Cruz added.

      As far as criminal charges, the senator said that it’s still too early to tell.

      “If there was deliberate and intentional fraud that injured people — and on the face of it, it certainly appears to be the case — then, of course, there should be consequences and liability for that.”

      Cruz spoke as the fallout from FTX’s bankruptcy protection filing last week continues to unravel. Among the latest revelations, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension plan announced the write-off of $95 million in FTX while Genesis Global Capital, the lending business of Genesis Trading, temporarily suspended redemptions and new loan originations as a result of its $175 million FTX exposure.

      Mining in Texas

      This was Cruz’s second consecutive appearance at the mining conference. On stage he called Texas an “oasis” for bitcoin and crypto in general.
      …
      https://www.theblock.co/post/188391/binance-had-at-minimum-ill-intent-in-revoked-ftx-proposal-sen-ted-cruz

    4. Obviously it was massive political support that enabled the housing bubble to reach ginormous proportions, to the point where it recently began collapsing of its own weight, with a little help from Fed rate hikes.

    5. Is there any difference between a cryptocurrency coin and a tulip bulb, other than the fact that a tulip bulb is tangible and has intrinsic value?

        1. The Financial Times
          Tim Harford
          January 25 2023

          One winter morning in early 1637, a sailor presented himself at the counting-house of a wealthy Dutch merchant and was offered a hearty breakfast of fine red herring. The sailor noticed an onion lying on the counter. “Thinking it, no doubt, very much out of its place among silks and velvets, he slily seized an opportunity and slipped it into his pocket, as a relish for his herring,” according to a Scottish writer telling the tale two centuries later. “He got clear off with his prize and proceeded to the quay to eat his breakfast.”

          The Scottish writer was Charles Mackay and the story is recounted in his book, Extraordinary ­Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. It’s one of very few works of economic history to have been an enduring bestseller, from its first publication in 1841 through to the 21st century, thanks, largely, to its vivid storytelling. Mackay debunked everything from alchemy and crusades to haunted houses and religious cults. But it was the three chapters on economic bubbles that made him the enduring guru of the phenomenon, cited to this day.

          In the book, Mackay went on to explain that the sailor, seeking zest for his fish, unwittingly pilfered not an onion, but a rare tulip bulb. Which was a problem because, in 1637, one of the strangest of all financial booms was taking place: the tulip mania, during which the choicest bulbs went for astonishing sums. “Hardly was his back turned when the merchant missed his valuable Semper Augustus, worth three thousand florins, or about 280 pounds sterling,” wrote Mackay. Relative to the wages of the time, that is well over a million dollars today. For a brief moment of tulip mania, a Semper Augustus tulip bulb was worth far more than its weight in gold. And it is thanks to Mackay that tulip mania is so famous.

          I’ve long been fascinated by Mackay’s stories, especially today, as we seem surrounded by things which might or might not be bubbles — NFTs, meme stocks, a precarious stock market — and full-blown financial face plants such as the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange. A lot of it seems to make no sense, just as the world Mackay described, in which you might accidentally eat a million dollars as garnish, made no sense.
          …

          1. “…we seem surrounded by things which might or might not be bubbles…”

            It doesn’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing in the Everything Bubble collapse.

    6. “…they didn’t get past basic ‘checklist items’ in the due diligence process, including not allowing an independent auditor to look at their financials. But other venture capitalists invested millions in the firm without even looking at their books. ‘They were asking for financials and the team at FTX was sending them excel spreadsheets,’ he said. ‘It was just absurd.’”

      It seems absurd that their new CEO is already champing at the bit to take FTX out of bankruptcy. Shouldn’t there be some kind of reckoning first? I can’t recall a similar request coming up after Enrom similarly collapsed a couple of decades ago; I guess cryptocurrency markets are different than energy markets?

  23. So now the ‘Coyote’ who force underage girls into prostitution to pay their smuggling bills are “a group that helps people.

    Rhode Island Assistant Principal Asks for Donations to Help Illegal-Immigrant Student Pay Human Trafficker

    Fri, January 27, 2023

    An assistant principal at Mount Pleasant High School in Providence, R.I., sent an email to the school’s teachers and students on Thursday asking them to donate thousands of dollars to pay a human trafficker who had recently smuggled a student into the United States illegally.

    “We have a student who came to America with ‘Coyote’, which is a group that helps people. This group gives you a time frame to make a payment of $5000 to those, who bring them into the states.” Assistant Principal Stefani Harvey wrote in an email addressed to faculty and students.

    “Our student needs our urgent support to raise another $2,000 to meet his goal of $5,000 by February 1st, 2023,” Harvey added in the letter.

    A representative of the Providence Teachers Union confirmed an interview with local radio host Matt Allen that the email was indeed sent on Thursday night.

    Addressing rumors that the email may have been hacked or a farce, Calabro confirmed that teachers at the school “realized quite quickly that it was not a hack or a misrepresentation or a joke.”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/rhode-island-assistant-principal-asks-194904552.html

    1. The REIC’s bullshit machine won’t stop the crash this time, any more than it stopped the 2007-2012 crash.

    2. I’ll watch MS media just to monitor BS. What’s so just like last time too is just when it was becoming very apparent to all that housing was falling off a cliff you get these conveniently placed reports that housing will take off again, or if your waiting for housing to fall you could be making the biggest mistake of your life. Just in the last couple weeks there has been a rush of these reports on all the major channels. And it’s just so weirdly coordinated that it just sets of the fishy meter. If people have their eyes open they’d spot this BS. Just for the new-to-the-game folks here, if you see spots like this popping up all over your news sources, if you see realtors being interviewed like they’ve never have been over the last few years, when you see mortgage brokers buying up all the advertising spots on your favorite channels….what should that tell you? Run!! And if you’re holding on to toxic RE, GTFO!

      2. “…waiting for housing to fall you could be making the biggest mistake of your life.”

        People thinking about buying their first home have saved themselves tens of $1000s by ignoring the REIC bullshit machine since last May. Real estate crashes typically take years to play out. What’s the hurry to buy now, especially when rents are also falling and the economy may be heading into a recession?

        There has never been a better time to wait.

    2. I visited San Francisco for the first and only time in 2019, didn’t get a rental car or any Ubers, only walked and rode BART and the bus.

      The history and architecture and topography are all interesting and unique, oldest large city on the west coast, but it does smell like feces in many places, because the homeless drop a deuce wherever they need to. Would not live there.

      1. the homeless drop a deuce wherever they need to

        It kind of makes sense, if you think about it. When I have to drop a deuce, I go right then, but in a toilet of course. When there’s no toilet, you still have to drop a deuce.

  30. ‘When you look at a lot of analysis that’s been done on the main factors that have caused the strong increase in house prices over the last few decades, you do start to think, actually, maybe some of these fundamental factors are starting to change’

    Nick, step back into the sun. Good.

    Click!

  33. Pfizer put out a press release on Friday night regarding recent “directed evolution” rumors as they call it. Our famous John Campbell reports with a full read, complete with the underlines I like to mock.

    Not good IMO. They deny in a fauciesque word mincing way, sprinkle in some Trust the Science, and then say they are indeed splicing things in the lab. If you can see through the subtle British sarcasm (which I was raised on) Campbell expresses horror. I agree with him.

    Video here

    9.25 minutes

    1. He generates income with views. Please don’t watch. He’s done enough irreparable damage.

      1. You’ve seen me criticize him. All he’s doing is laying out the Pfizer Press Release. Have you seen it elsewhere? I think you’d find it useful.

        1. “Word mincing” is pretty much how everything I’ve seen summarizes it. I’m not generating that despicable sellout Pied Piper one cent.

          1. Here is the release (emphasis added). HBBers are savvy.

            https://www.pfizer.com/news/announcements/pfizer-responds-research-claims:

            New York, N.Y., January 27, 2023 – Allegations have recently been made related to gain of function and directed evolution research at Pfizer and the company would like to set the record straight.

            In the ongoing development of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, Pfizer has not conducted gain of function or directed evolution research. Working with collaborators, we have conducted research where the original SARS-CoV-2 virus has been used to express the spike protein from new variants of concern. This work is undertaken once a new variant of concern has been identified by public health authorities. This research provides a way for us to rapidly assess the ability of an existing vaccine to induce antibodies that neutralize a newly identified variant of concern. We then make this data available through peer reviewed scientific journals and use it as one of the steps to determine whether a vaccine update is required.

            In addition, to meet U.S. and global regulatory requirements for our oral treatment, PAXLOVID™, Pfizer undertakes in vitro work (e.g., in a laboratory culture dish) to identify potential resistance mutations to nirmatrelvir, one of PAXLOVID’s two components. With a naturally evolving virus, it is important to routinely assess the activity of an antiviral. Most of this work is conducted using computer simulations or mutations of the main protease–a non-infectious part of the virus. In a limited number of cases when a full virus does not contain any known gain of function mutations, such virus may be engineered to enable the assessment of antiviral activity in cells. In addition, in vitro resistance selection experiments are undertaken in cells incubated with SARS-CoV-2 and nirmatrelvir in our secure Biosafety level 3 (BSL3) laboratory to assess whether the main protease can mutate to yield resistant strains of the virus. It is important to note that these studies are required by U.S. and global regulators for all antiviral products and are carried out by many companies and academic institutions in the U.S. and around the world.

            Fact-based information rooted in sound science is vitally important to overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic and Pfizer remains committed to transparency and helping alleviate the devastating burden of this disease.

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