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The Grim Reaper Could Be Coming For The Careers Of Real Estate Agents This Year

A report from Realtor.com. “According to Realtor.com®’s December housing data, the housing market continued to cool, with inventory and time on market increasing and listing price growth dropping below 10% for the first time in a year. There were 54.7% more homes for sale in December compared to the same time in 2021. This means that there were 244,000 more homes available to buy this past month compared to one year ago. The national median list price declined to $400,000 in December, down from a record high of $449,000 in June (-11.1%).”

The Jax Daily Record in Florida. “The inventory of single-family homes for sale continues to build as prices fall in the Northeast Florida real estate market, according to the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors January market review. The median price of a single-family home was $360,000 in January, a decline of 2.9% from December. Since peaking at $399,900 in July, home prices have fallen 9.9% and have dropped in five of the past six months. ‘The January market reflects a significant increase in months of supply, moving Northeast Florida closer to a stable market,’ NEFAR President Diana Galavis said.”

“Inventory is up 162.2% from a year ago, when 1,911 homes were on the market. And those homes are staying on the market longer. Also, buyers will have more to choose from. There were 2,650 new listings in January, up 34% over December’s 1,977. Pending sales increased to 1,698, up 29% from December. A year ago, there were 2,083 pending sales in January.”

Hawaii News Now. “For the first time since July 2021, the median price for an Oahu single-family home is below a milliion dollars. The condo median price is just under half a million. Ruthie Kaminskas, realtor-associate with Corcoran Pacific Properties, joined HNN Sunrise Weekend for a housing reality check. ‘I think that we have to change our dialogue. I think we have to change the mentality of what a lot of buyers and sellers are thinking right now that everything’s dropping, everything’s going down. We gotta wait to buy, we gotta wait to, you know, we got to sell now before everything goes down. No, no, no, no, I really, really, I think my main message this morning to all buyers and sellers, is that we are finally normalizing. We’re normalizing what happened in 2020 to 2022,’ Kaminskas said. ‘With our COVID bubble was a frenzy. It was an unprecedent amount of sales, it’s, we’re really not supposed to really experience anything like that more than once in our lifetime. And it’s just not something we can compare to. So what I do when I’m talking to my buyers and sellers is I’m I’m going back to when we were normal, which is 2019.'”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “‘The Denver metro area, along with the entire country, is oversupplied with real estate agents,’ said Steve Murray, president of Real Trends Consulting in Castle Rock. Nationally, there are 1.6 million agents chasing what forecasts predict will be about 4.7 million existing home sales. Given that there is a buy-side and a sell-side to every deal, that works out to less than six transactions per year, not enough for most people to make a living off of once given the various costs involved, Murray said.”

“Home sales in Colorado fell by a fifth last year and are expected to slow even more this year, reducing the number of agents needed to service the volume of transactions available. The mortgage industry suffered huge job losses last year, and the grim reaper could be coming for the careers of real estate agents this year.”

“Big increases in home prices have shifted the market. The sales volume was $33.3 billion in 2020 in metro Denver and $28.6 billion in 2019. If home prices start declining, which they appear ready to do, that will only add more downward pressure on agent incomes. Seattle-based Redfin, where agents are employees, cut about a quarter of its workforce and shuttered its home-flipping business last year. New York brokerage Compass has had four rounds of layoffs since June.”

NBC Bay Area in California. “The Bay Area hit a milestone when it comes to home pricing Thursday that makes it more of a buyer’s market. The average selling price for a home in the region is actually below the average asking price — something we haven’t seen in more than 10 years. ‘Usually there’s a bidding war, and that determines the price. But things have changed,’ said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. ‘All of those things are adding to buyer confidence,’ said San Jose real estate agent Lynsie Gridley, adding that buyers are starting to come back feeling better about their chances without having to compete with multiple offers. And the deals are getting done. ‘We were seeing offers coming in under asking, and sellers often accepting those offers anywhere from 1% to 5% under asking,’ said Gridley.”

Bisnow Washington DC. “D.C. officials are launching a new push to assist office-to-residential conversions as they attempt to overcome developer skepticism that the projects are a realistic solution to the problems that ail the city’s downtown. ‘It’s mission: impossible,’ said PRP principal Paul Dougherty, a developer who signed a letter to District officials last month raising alarms about the state of the downtown office market. ‘The math doesn’t work.’ ‘Simply put, office buildings were designed to be office buildings and not residential buildings,’ Dougherty said. ‘Most, if not all, of the developers that are undertaking conversions now, at the current market basis, are finding these conversions incredibly challenging and entirely not profitable. The squeeze simply isn’t worth the juice.'”

Willamette Week in Oregon. “Just about everyone still living in Portland had an opinion about last week’s cover story featuring those who left (“They Left,” WW, Feb. 1). We received a flood of emails, comments and Twitter dunks. John Donnerberg: ‘Finally, a realistic story about what people are actually doing in response to the mess in Portland. My family was born and raised in the Portland area for several generations. I owned a business, a rental property, and a house in Portland. I sold everything in Portland over the last two or three years. It simply broke my heart to have to leave. We moved just outside of Sandy. In hindsight, it was the best decision I’ve ever made.'”

“cortmorton: ‘Two Saturdays ago, at 6 am, my house was hit by a bullet. It hit a foot and a half from my head where I was lying. I live on 58th and Belmont. It took eight minutes to reach 911, 40 minutes before the police came. By which time they were long, long gone. My partner and I might be long, long gone from this city before long too.'”

KOMO TV in Washington. “Drivers passing by a homeless encampment on I-5 in Seattle early Thursday morning had to dodge smoke and flames shooting onto the interstate after someone lighting off fireworks started multiple tent fires. This was the sixth reported fire this month at the encampment. Parents of the John Stanford school say there’s nothing left to assess and the state’s focus on finding housing for the people at the encampment does not deal with the immediate safety concerns.”

“‘It’s completely unacceptable,’ said parent Emily Houston. ‘All I hear really is about housing, but it’s so much more than just housing and I think that’s pretty obvious to anyone who goes down there. It’s drugs. I think housing is a piece of the puzzle but that’s what they make it out to be 100% and it’s just not.'”

The Seaforth Huron Expositor in Canada. “The Grey-Bruce real estate market has started off 2023 much different than it did 2022, with home sales and prices significantly lower than they were a year ago. According to the Realtors Association of Grey Bruce, there were 117 units sold through its MLS System in January, which was 33.9 per cent lower than in January 2022, when a sales record for the month was set with 166 residential units sold. The average price of homes sold in January was $560,716, which is down 25.7 per cent from January 2022, when the average sale price was over $756,000.”

“Meanwhile the number of homes on the market continues to rise in Grey-Bruce with a total of 251 new listings in January, up by 19.5 per cent from January 2022. It was the most new listings added in the month of January in more than five years, and was 19.1 per cent above the five-year average and 8.5 per cent above the 10-year average, according to RAGBOS. The number of active residential listings at the end of January totaled 751 units, a surge of 18.4.5 per cent to more than double the levels they were at a year ago. Active listings haven’t been as high as they are in January in more than five years, the association said.”

From Reuters. “Australia’s central bank raised its cash rate 25 basis points to a decade-high of 3.35% on Tuesday and reiterated that further increases would be needed, a more hawkish policy tilt than many had expected. ‘The surprise was not in the decision, but rather the shift in tone and forward guidance in the Governor’s Statement,’ said Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA. ‘This change implies that the RBA Board has essentially made up their mind and intend to raise the cash rate further over coming months, if the economic data prints in line with their updated forecasts.'”

“The interest rate increases so far – including Tuesday’s move – will add over A$900 a month in repayments to the average A$500,000 mortgage, according to RateCity, a deadweight for a population that holds A$2 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in home loans. Housing prices fell for the ninth straight month in January, with prices in Sydney and Melbourne down about 10% from a year ago.”

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This Post Has 113 Comments

    2. “You sir are deplorable”

      – Yes, I consider myself fortunate to be in HRC’s “basket of deplorables.”

      – Thanks for the compliment!

  2. ‘Since peaking at $399,900 in July, home prices have fallen 9.9% and have dropped in five of the past six months. ‘The January market reflects a significant increase in months of supply, moving Northeast Florida closer to a stable market’

    ‘Inventory is up 162.2% from a year ago, when 1,911 homes were on the market. And those homes are staying on the market longer. Also, buyers will have more to choose from. There were 2,650 new listings in January, up 34% over December’s 1,977. Pending sales increased to 1,698’

    I’m not seeing the red hotness REIC keeps pushing recently. Looks like crater.

    ‘buyers are starting to come back feeling better about their chances without having to compete with multiple offers’

    Wa?

    ‘We were seeing offers coming in under asking’

    That’s the spirit. kickem while they’re down!

      1. “They have no marketable skills.”
        Just look in the mirror and practice this a few times: “Would you like fries with that?”

  4. ‘Two Saturdays ago, at 6 am, my house was hit by a bullet. It hit a foot and a half from my head where I was lying’

    Happens all the time: in Syria.

    1. “Two Saturdays ago, at 6 am, my house was hit by a bullet. It hit a foot and a half from my head where I was lying’”

      “Happens all the time: in Syria.“

      – “Socialism is Western civilization in retrograde.” – I said that

      – This is Portland,OR, one of many Socialist third world sh*thole cities right here in America. From civility to tribalism to barbarism.

      – Yes, could be Syria, Somalia, Haiti.

      – You get the government you vote for. Good and hard.

      – And yet it’s a mystery as to why thousands are fleeing these cities and states for greener (and safer) pastures…

      1. – And yet it’s a mystery as to why thousands are fleeing these cities and states for greener (and safer) pastures…

        Ask them and they will tell you that true communism/socialism/leftism has never been tried, but this time we will get it right.

      2. There’s no mystery why they’re fleeing. The mystery is why they continue to vote for socialists in the place they flee to.

        I don’t like that adage that an armed society is a polite society; I rather hoped that we could be polite anyway even without the threat of arms. But some people will respond to no other.

        1. “why they continue to vote for socialists in the place they flee to”

          Orange Man Bad and Murder Muh Baby

        3. The mystery is why they continue to vote for socialists in the place they flee to.

          Because they are true believers who are convinced that it will work if done right.

      3. When are you going to learn that nearly every election in this country has been stolen for 20 years?
        I am so sick of this brain dead insipid drivel you get what you vote for crap.

        1. Democrats don’t need to steal elections in districts that are D+70. What do they have to steal in a community that votes 85D-15R?

  5. 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗲𝗹, 𝗖𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟭% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗦𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗢𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱

    https://www.movoto.com/carmichael-ca/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥, “𝘞𝘦’𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘴𝘶𝘣𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘨𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 10 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘸. 𝘐𝘵’𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘵.”

  6. ‘All I hear really is about housing, but it’s so much more than just housing and I think that’s pretty obvious to anyone who goes down there. It’s drugs’

    Emily has a point: almost always when the subject of violent poo and urine producing bums is raised the commies start blabbing about shacks. Of course these same commies hate their own cities, want them destroyed and have built up a multi-billion $ per year industry (in each city BTW) coddling the bums.

    1. ‘All I hear really is about housing, but it’s so much more than just housing and I think that’s pretty obvious to anyone who goes down there. It’s drugs’

      No, Emily. Drugs and societal decay are the symptoms, not the disease. The root cause is liberalism, enabled by the mental and moral defectives who elect commies to rule over them.

    2. “Portland resident warns addicts are using food stamps to buy fentanyl”

      https://www.foxnews.com/media/portland-residents-warns-addicts-using-food-stamps-buy-fentanyl-zombies-streets

      Converting food stamps to cash for drugs/booze is nothing new. But a couple of the comments on this article are starting to sound draconian, to the effect of: “F it. We’ve wasted too much money and all they do is OD eventually anyway. Give the drugs out for free and let the chips fall where they may. ” That’s how bad things are getting.

    3. Turning downtown into a shooting gallery with free needles and supplies for heroin and meth addicts is horrible policy for everybody, including the addicts. Everybody knows that to help an addict you don’t make it easier for them to use, you provide support for them to QUIT.

      The politicians of Portland, Seattle, etc. have chosen to put criminals and the scourge they bring ahead of children and the working class who pay the salaries of said politicians. They have made the cities unsafe and uninhabitable in many areas. Until the people get rid of these crackpot politicians, nothing will change.

      1. So true. And they do it for equity because drug addicts and minorities are oppressed by the systemically racist criminal justice system, so they need to be enabled instead.

  7. ‘I think that we have to change our dialogue. I think we have to change the mentality of what a lot of buyers and sellers are thinking right now that everything’s dropping, everything’s going down. We gotta wait to buy, we gotta wait to, you know, we got to sell now before everything goes down. No, no, no, no, I really, really, I think my main message this morning to all buyers and sellers, is that we are finally normalizing. We’re normalizing what happened in 2020 to 2022…With our COVID bubble was a frenzy. It was an unprecedent amount of sales, it’s, we’re really not supposed to really experience anything like that more than once in our lifetime. And it’s just not something we can compare to. So what I do when I’m talking to my buyers and sellers is I’m I’m going back to when we were normal, which is 2019′

    Pina colada’s shouldn’t be consumed at lunch Ruthie.

    1. ‘So what I do when I’m talking to my buyers and sellers is I’m I’m going back to when we were normal, which is 2019′

      Translation of this realtor’s babble – Anyone who bought a house from between 2020 – 2022 is totally %*@#-ed.

      1. Farther back than that. These people tell lies within their lies. The last time we were within shouting distance of normal was circa 2011. We never got to normal because the criminals didn’t let the market finish correcting.

        1. Totally agree. I’m just saying this POS was probably telling every buyer over the last 3 years “buy now or be priced out forever” and telling folks that it was the new normal. I’d tell the folks she sold to go after her with torches and pitchforks but I kinda feel like they got what they had coming. Never give a sucker an even break. What was that expression from a little while ago?….ah yes, “the dildo of consequences.”

      2. Houses were already in a massive price bubble in 2019. 2014 is when they became completely detached from reality again.

  9. Since peaking at $399,900 in July, home prices have fallen 9.9% and have dropped in five of the past six months.

    Is that a lot?

  10. ‘I think that we have to change our dialogue. I think we have to change the mentality of what a lot of buyers and sellers are thinking right now that everything’s dropping, everything’s going down.

    Meaning, we need to adjust our lies to a cratering housing market.

  11. “The interest rate increases so far – including Tuesday’s move – will add over A$900 a month in repayments to the average A$500,000 mortgage, according to RateCity, a deadweight for a population that holds A$2 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in home loans.

    Die, speculator scum.

  12. A reader sent these in:

    All I know is that, pre-1971, a middle-class worker with a stay at home spouse could afford a home near the beach in California at 3-4x one income, and now you’d need 10 or 15x two-incomes to buy the same house.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1623092152506146816

    The average home is STILL selling for almost 10x the average income! Home prices can remain expensive for 2-3 years, but home prices are still clearly in bubble territory. Eventually, gravity always wins…

    https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1623075143781163010

    90% of the houses I’m seeing go under contract are contingent. Just homeowners selling to each other at peak pricing.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1625171729885847553

    Just a reminder, your house that was worth $462,107.54 @ 2.70% mortgage rates. Is now worth $295,760.60 at 6.5% mortgage rates.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1625160817695137792

    Every single housing downturn over the last 60 years has seen affordability fall back below the long term average. If you’re betting this time is different, you’re not only betting against history, you’re betting against deteriorating demographics.

    https://twitter.com/Tryng2lookahead/status/1625152157912600576

    Here’s another University of Michigan survey done on Buying Conditions for Houses – Good vs. Bad. Buying Conditions for Houses are the worst in 50 years!

    https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1625053116738543619

    Lance Lambert

    San Francisco has already given up 42% of its Pandemic Housing Boom gains. Chicago has given up just 4% of its Pandemic Housing Boom gains. The 20 major markets individually tracked by Case-Shiller 👇

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1625143630535983106

    The University of Michigan does multiple sentiment surveys. This one shows the results of how people responded to their current financial situation compared to a year ago. Most people consider themselves worse off & the survey stat has dropped to the lowest level in 10 years.

    https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1625052145220308992

    “Breit has a backlog of billions of dollars of redemption requests to work through. The debacle has raised doubts about the durability of a retail-investor-focused strategy and left Breit facing questions about its property valuations.”

    https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1625126295616077825

    As I’ve said before, Lael Brainard going to be the chief economic adviser in the White House undermines the notion that the Fed is some politically neutral bunch of technocrats.

    https://twitter.com/SteveMiran/status/1625329468108677121

    This chart from a New Zealand Personal Finance sub-Reddit is really something. In terms of the median sale price (not adjusted for the attributes of the home) for Auckland, prices are lower now than they were in March of 2020.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1625319108400279553

    The last time it “normalized” it took 14 years for the house I sold to recover to my sales price.

    https://twitter.com/warrenwinston9/status/1625319536089239552

    Aaron Layman

    Company that lost a $billion flipping homes has an overhauled (and still flawed) home value index. 😉

    https://twitter.com/dfwaaronlayman/status/1625239799706578952

    Relatives got a house from an ibuyer (the software cos that thought they could flip houses). The ibuyer completely missed that there was tons of water damage all over the house and what they did find they painted over. 1/3

    https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1625287973553012738

    Yes. If homes could be purchased by people at prices that keep DTI under 45%, that could be the end of the USA as we know it. Completely destabilizing. Let’s all pray it doesn’t happen 🙏

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1625305501851430914

    THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT!! Never in recorded history did an asset bubble leverage up from the zero bound in interest rates. There is no interest rate cushion for the collapse!

    https://twitter.com/TheELongWave/status/1625230888165318660

    Record breaking prices?? 😂😂😂 Here’s are 3 houses in the Lawrence park and mount pleasant area that recent went for at or UNDER the 2017 prices. Delusion wont save you from reality when the QE+ZIRP music stops. Only record that will be broken soon is RE investor capitulations

    https://twitter.com/MacroOunce/status/1625286820295483392

    John Wake

    Real median price now down 14% from May to December. Also, seller contributions to buyer closing costs are up a lot, too.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1625287439530201088

    Wait until this hits the market. Phoenix is especially vulnerable to this trend.

    https://twitter.com/trader_mtg/status/1625285646305865728

    John Wake

    The median inflation-adjusted house price in metro Phoenix is back between March and April of 2021 but is still above the peak of the last bubble.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1617549186257555457

    1/5 The disappearance of the move-up buyer. THREAD

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1625272682949357571

    Little busier in Dec and Jan but still lots of buyers sitting on sidelines. Sold two Opendoor homes in recently and they lost $200k on both total. They are getting hammered. Lots of nice listings and sitting. DOM adding up. Nice stuff coming down in price for people have to sell.

    https://twitter.com/48thStateRE/status/1625234184355864577

    FHA is SOLIDLY deep subprime. How do I know? I sold $8m/mo in subprime at New Century Mortgage

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1625262265984516105

    The 1970s actually had 3 inflationary waves, each larger than the last. We had 32% debt to GDP. It took Fed Funds rate going to 20%, then held at 16%, to stop this. Powell is f*cked.

    https://twitter.com/peruvian_bull/status/1625182305018073089

    One great thing about this scenario is that millions of upper class real estate bros can simply deny that the same math applies to them right up until the day before they try to refinance their debt, and they can’t. The noose just slowly, slowly tightens…

    https://twitter.com/SickEconomics/status/1625225493896110096

    How can you trust CPLie data when it keeps being “adjusted” to appear lower (deceive public on reality of inflation)? You simply can’t. There’s too much motivation for politicians and central bankers to have it appear lower.

    https://twitter.com/BP_Rising/status/1625220979839434753

    CarDealershipGuy

    Capital One has *really* tightened its auto lending. Customer volume we’re sending them is down 60%+ (vs. 6 months ago). A massive 180 for one of the biggest auto lenders in the game.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1625214422628048901

    Truist bank just restructured $500m in auto loans. Nearly 25% of the loans are delinquent. YEESH!

    https://twitter.com/shefska/status/1625185889369440290

    Homes are hysterically overpriced
    There was never a structural shortage of housing
    There are more homes under construction than any time in history
    Demographics are the worst in history and declining faster
    Everyone is about to realize it all at once.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1625209435621834752

    Phoenix landlords are losing a median $9,000 per MONTH in home price. If the median rent in Phoenix is $2000, landlords are losing over 4 months gross rental income every single month. Over just the last 7 months, landlords have lost almost 3 years of gross rental income..so far

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1625207081132523520

    New footage from the East Palestine, Ohio train accident showing sparks and a possible fire on board 20 miles prior to derailment. 🔊sound …🧐

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1625312079597936641

    Inflation data for 4 of the past 5 months has been revised higher than originally reported. 🔥 If you thought prices were rising faster than the BLS said, you were right. 🧐

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1625224978294513685

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    THIS I will not miss. Call future falling prices recession’s silver lining.
    “Avg monthly payment for new car has (at) record $777, nearly doubling from late 2019, according to @KelleyBlueBook
    owner @CoxAutomotive
    That’s ~1/6 median after-tax income for US households.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1625360745167835138

    Japan’s GDP growth slowed to 1.1% in 2022. Biggest inflation surge in 40 years. The central bank owns over 50% of its government bonds. Japan’s bond delivery failures are at their highest since the global financial crisis. BOJ unrealized losses are now at $68.4 bn. Surprised?

    https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1625295030452887552

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    The globality of the recessionary impact of multiple slowdown on display: “JAPAN 4Q GDP GROWS 0.6% ON ANNUALIZED BASIS; EST. 2.0%”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1625282783655387136

    #recession … #GFC2 US Treasury #Bonds edition. The cure for high yields is high yields… signaled by the #YieldCurve same as 16 years ago. #GFC2

    https://twitter.com/InvariantPersp1/status/1625202342739210242

    1. “The 6-Month Treasury bill yield is encroaching upon 5% for the first time since 2007.”

      Most likely the 6-Month yield will close above 5% today.

      1. Mostly in 1971 condition.” yep for example iron sewer drains that need replacing not cheap. Plumbers have a machine that feeds plastic drain pipe through the old Iron pipe if its not completely collapsed. Big house with interior bathrooms $$$ .

    3. All I know is that, pre-1971, a middle-class worker with a stay at home spouse could afford a home near the beach in California at 3-4x one income, and now you’d need 10 or 15x two-incomes to buy the same house.

      In 1971 that coastal neighborhood was idyllic. No homeless, no junkies, your house wouldn’t be burgled, your car not stolen. All your neighbors were heritage Americans. Today? Not so much.

    4. East Palestine, Ohio train accident

      @BlueSkye: Isn’t this kind of explosion in your area of expertise?

          1. I lived. Once with only 20 minutes of air on my back. Not trying to be dramatic, sometimes things get dangerous. I got good training as a fireman at the refinery early on. I don’t miss being plant engineer, for sure.

            I can tell you that the “news stories” are by clueless idiot drama queens. The responders likely did things by the book. There aren’t enough actual facts published to make sense of.

          3. without legal authority

            That’s quite an interesting take. He saved many lives, without the help of a lawyer. I think I may be guilty of this once as well.

          12. my garden symbolic

            I had forgotten that I would need to be punished for that!

            I had a big garden once. It was about 1/4 acre of rich long cultivated soil. I grew all sorts of stuff. One time I brought a paper grocery bag full of fresh green beans into the house. My stay at home spousal unit was so impressed that she cooked green beans for dinner. Canned beans, from the grocery store. I’m no stranger to symbolism.

            I apologize for treading on your tomatoes.

          13. I apologize

            😊

            on your tomatoes

            And strawberries, blueberries, peas, peppers, chard, lettuce, celery, cilantro, chives, parsley, and whatever assorted root veggies that survived slugs.

          15. Taters

            I suspect my taters drowned during our torrential rains last month. I’m really bummed because I waited 2+ months for the seed potatoes to chit before planting them.

    5. “Here’s are 3 houses in the Lawrence park and mount pleasant area that recent went for at or UNDER the 2017 prices.”

      One of those sold in 2017 for $2 million and was leased out for $2600!?

      1. “One of those sold in 2017 for $2 million and was leased out for $2600!?”

        – Cap. rate, ex. normal expenses, is (drum roll please) 1.56%.

        – How are those 5% cap. rates looking now? Pretty good! Pretty good!

        – Prof. Bear posted earlier that the 6 mo. T bill at (almost) 5%. Well, (drum roll please). It’s now at 5.031%.

        – So the risk-free return is 5%. Why buy RRE or stonks? Someone’s going to get spanked here. Money printing leads to inflation. Central banks were in denial. Now the bill comes due…

    6. As I’ve said before, Lael Brainard going to be the chief economic adviser in the White House undermines the notion that the Fed is some politically neutral bunch of technocrats.

      This news right here should strike terror in the minds of those struggling with inflation. This woman is a deranged MMT crackpot. We may very well be on the way to witnessing some of the worst policies yet. More precious metals might be a wise choice.

    2. “strategic investment professional”

      Be interesting to see what she put clients into, I’m sure. When the last bubble burst she was 16 or so.

      Again, methinks these kids quitting mid-six-figure jobs as we head into God knows what kind of depression are going to regret it.

      1. As old Ben Franklin once said: “Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other”.

    3. “It’s not to say that this only impacts women — it impacts everyone,” Peters says about the state’s strict abortion ban. “But it’s hard for me to get excited about raising her in Texas. For one, there’s the legality of, if she’s ever in that position, can she choose? Then, what does it say about raising her in that environment?”

      Your daughter could always buy an airplane ticket to Colorado or another nearby state for her abortion. You could splurge and buy it for her yourself if she’s in that position.

      1. Loss of income and divorce would be my guess. It seems to be pervasive among the WFH crowd who like to brag online about their houses, their jobs, their wives, etc. Their lives are mostly a house of cards.

      2. We haven’t heard from MGSpiffy in a long time.

        I was thinking the same. Hope things are going well for him

  16. ‘With our COVID bubble was a frenzy. It was an unprecedent amount of sales, it’s, we’re really not supposed to really experience anything like that more than once in our lifetime. And it’s just not something we can compare to. So what I do when I’m talking to my buyers and sellers is I’m I’m going back to when we were normal, which is 2019.’”

    Only Realtors and Debt Donkeys come up with stuff like this. This particular empty skulled realtor thinks 2019 was normal.🤡…… when they invoke the “we” and “our” happy talk, you know you’re listing to a know-nothing.

    Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY On Surging Mortgage Defaults and Foreclosures

    https://www.movoto.com/co/80222/market-trends/

  17. Updated Tue, Feb 14 2023 10:48 AM EST
    Dow slips more than 200 points after January CPI report shows stubbornly high inflation: Live updates
    Carmen Reinicke
    Alex Harring
    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
    NYSE

    Stocks fell Tuesday, reversing earlier gains, after the January consumer price index report showed that inflation grew at a 6.4% annual rate, slightly higher than expected.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    slipped 250 points, or 0.73%. The S&P 500 shed 0.75%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.82%. Treasury yields ticked higher, with the yield on the 6-month U.S. Treasury on track to close above 5% for the first time since July 2007.
    …
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    2. Media
      Published February 14, 2023 11:25am EST
      Former Obama economist rejects inflation happy talk: Not ‘going away anytime soon’
      ‘I think anyone who’s overly calm about it is making me nervous,’ he said
      By Hanna Panreck | Fox News

      Former Obama economist Jason Furman rejected any inflation happy talk on Tuesday and said it was not going away time soon.

      Former Obama economist Jason Furman rejected any inflation happy talk on Tuesday, emphasizing that a recession was likely and high prices were not going away “anytime soon.”

      “I think the markets are just ridiculously complacent about the inflation situation right now. I look at tips, I look at swaps, they have break-evens of inflation of around 2%, I just don’t see that. I don’t see how we have inflation much below 3% this year, I don’t see it coming down below that without a decent-sized recession. And nothing in this number gives me comfort,” he said.

      Furman joined CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday to discuss January’s inflation numbers and the market’s reaction. Inflation rose 6.4% in January on an annual basis and came in higher than expected. The Consumer Price Index, a broad measure of the price of gasoline, groceries and rent, rose 0.5% in January.

      Furman also added that anyone who was “calm” about inflation was making him nervous.
      …
      https://www.foxnews.com/media/former-obama-economist-rejects-inflation-happy-talk-not-going-away-anytime-soon

  20. I watch two areas real closely. One is in Northern NV, the other coastal Oregon because I live in both. First of all not many pending sales. But of the ones that are I’d say at least at least half, and in NV as much as 80%, of the pending sales are “contingent”. Meaning the deal will only go through if the buyer gets top dollar for the house they’re selling. I saw the same thing in these areas late 2006 and into 2007. But no worries….history never repeats itself.

  21. “The national median list price declined to $400,000 in December, down from a record high of $449,000 in June (-11.1%).”

    Annualized rate of median list price decline is 1-(1-0.111)^2 = 21%.

    It seems like buyers are beginning to smell the coffee.

    1. Actually meant to say sellers are beginning to smell the coffee…and buyers are beginning to smell blood in the water.

        1. Another reply: “Maybe…but you certainly can’t find a Lib woman who looks good enough for such a career.”

        2. She was an attractive woman in her youth, e.g., tight curls perm, tie dye tank top, bell bottom jeans, etc., and she took care of herself ageing, i.e., did say f**k it and graze.

      3. Melania was a model who posed nude, but from what I can tell from what little I care, anti-Trumpers would like to believe that Epstein provided Melania to DJT. How convenient! Feel free to do your own research and report back to us.

    3. What I really don’t understand is how there’s any money in the porn industry anymore. It’s been free for decades now.

      1. “Training is what allows a girl to earn money by keeping her clothes on for as long as possible,” she said.

        They use the term “sexcam” in the article, but it’s actually just a dirty-talk video-chat session with scantily clad woman. The keyword here is, “interactive.”

    1. Better question: Who isn’t Dr. Jill kissing for Valentine’s Day?

      You think it stops at SGOTUS?

    1. Stock Market Today
      Dow Jones Futures Fall After Market Rally Shrugs Off Hot Inflation, Tesla Races; Airbnb Flies On Earnings
      ED CARSON 01:20 AM ET 02/15/2023

      Dow Jones futures fell modestly early Wednesday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Airbnb (ABNB) soared late on earnings while CRDO stock plummeted on a warning. Shopify (SHOP) leads results before Wednesday’s open.

      The stock market rally closed mixed Tuesday, but off session lows despite a hot January CPI inflation report. The headline and core CPI inflation rates continued to drift lower, but by less than Wall Street expected. Treasury yields ultimately rose once again as markets price in further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-rally-shrugs-off-hot-inflation-tesla-runs-airbnb-flies-on-earnings/

    2. Cryptocurrency
      Investing
      Banks
      Real Estate
      Finance ·Morgan Stanley
      Morgan Stanley says the stock market is ‘disconnected from reality’ and it’s going to hit bottom this Spring
      BY Farah Elbahrawy and Bloomberg
      February 13, 2023 at 7:01 AM PST
      Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley & Co., speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York, U.S., on Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2017.
      Christopher Goodney—Bloomberg/Getty Images

      US stocks are ripe for a selloff after prematurely pricing in a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.

      “While the recent move higher in front-end rates is supportive of the notion that the Fed may remain restrictive for longer than appreciated, the equity market is refusing to accept this reality,” a team led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note.

      Wilson — a staunch Wall Street bear who correctly predicted last year’s selloff when US equities posted their worst performance since 2008 — expects deteriorating fundamentals, along with Fed hikes that are coming at the same time as an earnings recession, to drive equities to an ultimate low this spring. “Price is about as disconnected from reality as it’s been during this bear market,” the strategists said.

      Last week, yields on US two-year notes exceeded 10-year yields by the most since the early 1980s, a sign of flagging confidence in the economy’s ability to withstand additional rate increases. Meanwhile, US equities have seen one of the strongest starts to a year on record, though the rally has started to cool as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook for further rate increases weighed on sentiment.

      US inflation data could be a catalyst to bring investors back to reality, and get stocks in line with bonds again, if prices rose more than expected, Wilson said, while noting that expectations for such a result have been growing. The data on Tuesday is predicted to show consumer prices increased 0.5% in January from a month earlier, spurred by higher gasoline costs. That would mark the biggest gain in three months.
      …
      https://fortune.com/2023/02/13/morgan-stanley-stock-market-downturn-bottom-this-spring-disconnected-from-reality/

  27. CBS 8 Home
    Local News
    High-income earners choosing to rent instead of buy in San Diego
    A new study shows San Diego ranks seventh nationwide with the highest number of renters who make more than $150k per year.
    Author: Shannon Handy
    Published: 6:21 PM PST February 13, 2023
    Updated: 6:21 PM PST February 13, 2023

    SAN DIEGO — More and more people making six figures a year are choosing to rent instead of own in San Diego.

    They’re called high-income renters or households making more than $150,000 annually.

    According to a study published by apartment search website Rent Café, San Diego is a high-income renter hotspot, ranking number seven nationwide behind cities like San Francisco, Seattle, and New York.

    “Everybody knows there’s a shortage of housing, especially in California. So, what do you do if their housing supply or stock isn’t available? You rent,” said Doug Ressler with Yardi Matrix, the company behind the study.

    Using data collected from the 2020 census, the study found 12.4 percent of renters in San Diego are high-income earners – the number of high-income renters here increased dramatically, going from 18,000 in 2015 to 33,400 in 2020.

    While the pricey and competitive housing market does play a role, Ressler says it wasn’t the most significant contributing factor.

    So, what was it? “Safety and convenience,” said Ressler.

    Ressler said rentals, specifically luxury condos, and apartments, offer specific amenities homeownership doesn’t. Plus, less maintenance.

    Ressler said San Diego has more high-income earners moving here due to a growing number of good-paying jobs in the life-science field.

    “San Diego, in terms of life science, moved from number five position nationally to number three, almost number two. It’s about the sciences in terms of either you’re developing pills, you know, antibiotics, you’re doing things with immune technology, things like that,” said Ressler.

    Overall, Ressler says the high-income earners who rent choose to do so even though they can afford to buy.

    But, some argue home ownership isn’t attainable even with a six-figure salary, especially as housing prices in San Diego have skyrocketed.

    According to the National Association of Realtors, the average home price in San Diego is 857,000 dollars.

    On Twitter, people responded to the study.

    Shea Benton wrote:

    “That’s because it’s impossible to buy here, even if you’re making $150k a year unless you’ve been making that since college (highly unlikely) and consistently saving. 34, been making good money since 25, still can’t afford to buy.”

    Ken Stone said:

    “Like they have a choice.”
    …
    https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/high-income-earners-choosing-rent-instead-of-buy/509-945202bd-7d90-4c73-9a03-96980e30197e

    1. ‘So, what was it? “Safety and convenience,” said Ressler.’

      Try to avoid the danger of catching yourself a falling knife.

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