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The Soft Landing Island Is Looking Really Crowded

A report from DS News. “As the housing market took its twists and turns to close our 2022, Fannie Mae felt the impact of a market in flux. Fannie Mae’s net income decreased $9.3 billion in 2022, compared with 2021, primarily driven by a $11.4 billion shift to provision for credit losses, and a $1.6 billion shift to investment losses, partially offset by a $1.1 billion increase in fair value gains. The GSE’s multifamily business segment recognized a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses, approximately $900 million of which related to the company’s seniors housing portfolio. This provision drove a $52 million net loss for the quarter.”

“The company’s seniors housing portfolio has been disproportionately impacted by recent market conditions. As of December 31, 2022, nearly all of the seniors housing loans in the company’s guaranty book of business were current on their payments. However, a sharp rise in short-term interest rates during the latter half of 2022 put additional stress on its seniors housing portfolio that was already experiencing elevated vacancy rates. As of December 31, 2022, the seniors housing portfolio had an unpaid principal balance of $16.6 billion, which constituted 4% of the company’s multifamily guaranty book of business. Approximately 40% of the seniors housing loans in the company’s multifamily guaranty book as of December 31, 2022 were adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs).”

KDVR in Colorado. “A new report describes the Denver-area housing market coming down from a sugar high. Denver metro home prices have fallen farther than most of the other 49 largest metro areas, and the length of time it takes them to sell has risen faster than any of them. In the past year, the median sale price for a single-family Denver metro home sunk 5.8%, farther than any other metro except New Orleans. Sellers cannot hope for the return per square foot they could expect last year. The price per square foot for a Denver metro home has fallen 8%. This is the sharpest yearly drop out of the 50 largest metros and twice as much as the next sharpest drop in the Boston area.”

The Miami Herald. “Annual home sales are down in South Florida, forcing more sellers to negotiate prices with buyers. Sellers can blame the housing slowdown on a perfect storm. First and foremost, buyers have had enough. Home prices peaked last summer. Miami-Dade alone had a historically high median sales price of $579,000 for a single-family home in June 2022. More buyers are refusing to pay a premium. Out-of-state, wealthy buyers might have once saved the day with cash deals or sight-unseen offers near the asking price at the height of the pandemic. That’s a distant memory.”

The Las Vegas Business Press. “Despite rising mortgage rates slowing new and existing home sales, a housing expert told the Southern Nevada homebuilding industry that’s temporary. Brian Gordon, a principal at Applied Analysis, will help ease concerns of builders looking to construct more homes amid the current slowdown. His catch phrase is how the housing market is starting to stabilize after its decline. ‘That’s 6,000 people moving here a month, and we’re seeing a lot of positive population growth coming into the market,’ Gordon said. ‘We’re losing people to the tune of 2,000 a month so on the net we’re in the 3,000 to 4,000 range of growth. Those folks have to live somewhere. For all of you, let’s build some houses and hope they buy them.'”

“Nevada ranks No. 7 in the nation with its business tax climate, he said. California is No. 48. ‘As long as they keep screwing up stuff in California, we’ll be OK,’ Gordon said.”

Community Impact in Texas. “After an overactive market and buying frenzy last year, home prices in Cedar Park and Leander—which have been on a steady rise since early 2021—dipped toward the tail end of 2022. In Cedar Park, the peak median price for a house was $535,000 in 2021, and in 2022, the peak price was $604,800, according to ABoR data. Home prices dropped significantly in December to $472,500—a 21.9% decrease. Median home prices in Leander followed a similar trend. In 2021, the peak median price for a home was $502,500 with a peak price of $567,455 in 2022. Prices fell 14.3% to $486,500 in December.”

The Record Chronicle in Texas. “The recent price cuts on homes, which juiced activity, took the median Denton home price down to $349,999 in January. Median Denton home prices have fallen $60,000 (14.6%) from their bubble peak last summer. The data says soft landing island is looking really crowded and terminal rates are not here yet.”

Bisnow Los Angeles in California. “Brookfield, a major office landlord in Downtown Los Angeles, has defaulted on loans linked to two of its Downtown office towers totaling $784M. Subsidiaries of Brookfield DTLA Fund Office Trust Investor defaulted on $465M worth of loans atvthe Gas Company Tower at 555 West Fifth St. and $319M worth of loans in connection with the 777 Tower at 777 South Figueroa St., according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday. This year is anticipated by a number of industry watchers to be one in which we see a wave of defaults, foreclosures and handing over of keys.”

“‘With rising interest rates and soft underlying market conditions, expect a wave of distressed office properties starting next year as some owners either decide to give back their assets to their lenders or go through the foreclosure process,’ a fourth-quarter office report from Savills noted.”

Market Watch on California. “Roughly 90,000 people left Silicon Valley during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an annual report that found a slowing ‘exodus’ has reverted the tech center’s population to 2013 levels. ‘Yes, there’s an exodus,’ Russell Hancock, chief executive of Joint Venture Silicon Valley, said in a news briefing Tuesday about his group’s latest report. ‘It’s happening.'”

The Intelligencer. “After years of explosive growth, much of the tech world is notably less frothy than it was. Scott Galloway: ‘Well, first off, I advise two VC firms. They want to talk about where we go from here — which investments, which categories. My advice is to sit on their hands and do nothing right now. Because what’s happening in the housing market is happening in the venture market, which is that everybody’s anchoring off. People think, ‘The Smiths sold their house for $800,000 15 months ago, so I should get $800,000.’ Well, no, the market’s changed dramatically. And so even if they put their house up for sale, they don’t want to accept a lower price. Meanwhile, buyers read everything in the news about a recession or housing prices coming down and think, ‘This house is worth $650,000.’ So right now, there’s total stasis. The same thing’s happening in the small-business and entrepreneurship community. Companies that raise money still have capital, but they don’t want to acknowledge that their valuation is probably down 50, 70, maybe even 80 percent.'”

“‘In a world of zero interest rates, where money is free, you end up with Wag. You end up with a cute concept that’s not a business. You end up with Cathie Wood talking about bitcoin at a million dollars. You end up with just all of this crap, and it’s got to get cleaned out.'”

The Globe and Mail. “As hot inflation pushes up interest rates and continues to cool Canada’s housing market, analysts expect mortgage growth to dip further this year. Many Canadians no longer qualify for pricier mortgages. Lenders are required to stress test borrowers to determine whether they can sustain payments at higher interest rates. That pressure is weighing on homebuying. Between higher rates and tighter approval requirements, the number of people qualifying for mortgages at traditional lenders has plummeted from a year ago, according to Frances Hinojosa, a mortgage broker and chief executive of Tribe Financial Group. The pressure is pushing prospective borrowers and those renewing their mortgages to subprime and private lenders with looser lending requirements.”

Better Dwelling. “Canada’s central bank’s latest research paper has mortgage brokers in its crosshairs. In the working paper titled the Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence From Mortgage Lending, they compare broker-client outcomes to branch borrowers. The researchers found that broker-clients are riskier, and are exploited for greater profit. The paper reveals that broker-clients tend to be higher risk and lower income. They also tend to use more leverage, have longer amortizations, and pay more interest. Increased costs are partially attributed by the researchers to ‘steering’ clients to more profitable products. Not exactly a love letter from the central bank. The central bank isn’t just picking on brokers today, but looking to inform policy. They explain that if left unchecked, a toxic industry can lead to market distortions.”

“The paper found that mortgage brokers service a higher risk clientele. ‘Specifically, they have lower income and lower FICOs [credit scores], but buy more expensive homes using longer amortization periods to smooth-out monthly loan payments,’ explains the researchers. Longer amortizations means a longer repayment term. Borrowers do this for lower monthly payments, in exchange for paying more interest. Not a little either—it can add tens of thousands to the cost of a typical home. Despite opting for tools to lower payments, they also found these borrowers tend to hit their total debt service (TDS) limit.”

“‘The simple truth is brokers arrange mortgages in many cases for clients that the Big 6 banks turned down,’ explained mortgage broker Ron Butler, founder of Butler Mortgages. ‘In some cases Brokers steer clients to very expensive Private Mortgage solutions only because it’s easier and pays the same as a B lender like Home Trust. I am serious, some brokers steer clients to the most expensive solution because it’s less work—not even better pay. The bastards are just lazy.'”

Stuff New Zealand. “Fletcher Building is ‘pragmatically pausing’ some of its residential developments as the housing market slows. The company’s residential and development business, which is focused on large scale urban developments in Auckland and Christchurch, reported a 56% drop in pre-tax profit to $49 million in the six months to the end of December. In response to the softening market, the company had slowed or paused work on some residential and apartment developments and limited new land purchase agreements.”

ABC Business in Australia. “Recent home buyer Lorna Zelenak is about to head overseas for a short trip, but she wouldn’t be making the same plans today. ‘We booked this holiday last year … If you had asked me [then], I would have said that I have no issues going on holiday whatsoever,’ Ms Zelenak said. But now? She’s going to continue working remotely in her small business, a Melbourne cosmetic injectables clinic, to ensure she has enough clients booked in for her return. ‘I think I’m going to be worrying a lot about what I’m coming back to … in order to still pay the bills that I am leaving behind. It will definitely be one of my last holidays for a while now.'”

“‘There’s a key group there, particularly people aged between 25 to 45, who have high debt levels, very high levels of gearing, who don’t have a lot of assets,’ economist Shane Oliver told the ABC. Dr Oliver, the chief economist at AMP, estimates about 1 million households, or roughly a third of the 3.3 million with a mortgage, will need to make significant spending cuts to keep up with minimum repayments. ‘That’s a high number — that’s 10 per cent of Australian households that are actually quite vulnerable,’ Dr Oliver said.”


“In its own analysis, published in October’s financial stability review, the RBA estimated 15 per cent of owner-occupiers would have ‘negative spare cash flows’ — or not enough money left over after paying their mortgages. Dr Oliver said the more households went ‘cash-flow negative’ the reater the potential blowback on the banking system. ‘The problem in all this is it takes a while for it to show up … what might look fine one day can suddenly change a month or so later. That’s what really needs to be allowed for here … I must admit, I’m now getting a little bit more concerned.'”

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This Post Has 97 Comments

  1. ‘In a world of zero interest rates, where money is free, you end up with Wag. You end up with a cute concept that’s not a business. You end up with Cathie Wood’

    ZING!

  2. ‘The simple truth is brokers arrange mortgages in many cases for clients that the Big 6 banks turned down,’ explained mortgage broker Ron Butler, founder of Butler Mortgages. ‘In some cases Brokers steer clients to very expensive Private Mortgage solutions only because it’s easier and pays the same as a B lender like Home Trust. I am serious, some brokers steer clients to the most expensive solution because it’s less work—not even better pay. The bastards are just lazy’

    That’s some sound lending right there.

  3. ‘Home prices dropped significantly in December to $472,500—a 21.9% decrease. Median home prices in Leander followed a similar trend. In 2021, the peak median price for a home was $502,500 with a peak price of $567,455 in 2022. Prices fell 14.3% to $486,500 in December’

    The CCP virus boom is going away like a fart in the little league bleachers.

  4. ‘driven by a $11.4 billion shift to provision for credit losses’

    Is that a lot?

    ‘The GSE’s multifamily business segment recognized a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses, approximately $900 million of which related to the company’s seniors housing portfolio. This provision drove a $52 million net loss for the quarter’

    Recession proof!

  5. ‘For all of you, let’s build some houses and hope they buy them’

    That’s why you make the big bucks Brian.

    1. “‘As long as they keep screwing up stuff in California, we’ll be OK,’ Gordon said.”

      He makes a compelling point.

  6. 𝗩𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗲, 𝗙𝗟 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 𝗖𝗼𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/34101/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘴, “𝘔𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘨𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘣𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘹𝘪𝘤 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘥𝘦𝘣𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘭𝘭. 𝘈𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘥 𝘪𝘵 𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘴.”

      2. You will rent your tent from Blackstone and Yoel Roth will be your sleeping bag buddy!

        P.S. The jokes on this forum are some of the best! I keep coming back not only for the schadenfreude but also for the humor.

  8. ‘That’s a high number — that’s 10 per cent of Australian households that are actually quite vulnerable,’ Dr Oliver said.”

    And the RBA is about to vulner them.

    1. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Doubles Down on Coinbase (COIN), Buys Another 139,000 Shares Amid SEC Crackdown
      Daily Hodl Staff
      February 14, 2023

      Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is gobbling up more shares of Coinbase (COIN) as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cracks down on crypto.

      With ARK Invest’s February 10th purchase of 139,105 shares in the largest US crypto exchange, COIN is now the eighth top holding for ARK Invest.
      …
      https://dailyhodl.com/2023/02/14/cathie-woods-ark-invest-doubles-down-on-coinbase-coin-buys-another-139000-shares-amid-sec-crackdown/

        1. “‘Well, first off, I advise two VC firms. They want to talk about where we go from here — which investments, which categories. My advice is to sit on their hands and do nothing right now. Because what’s happening in the housing market is happening in the venture market, which is that everybody’s anchoring off.”

          Try not to catch yourself a sinking anchor.

          “People think, ‘The Smiths sold their house for $800,000 15 months ago, so I should get $800,000.’ Well, no, the market’s changed dramatically. And so even if they put their house up for sale, they don’t want to accept a lower price. Meanwhile, buyers read everything in the news about a recession or housing prices coming down and think, ‘This house is worth $650,000.’ So right now, there’s total stasis.”

          I call bullshit. A doubling of mortgage rates means the guy who could qualify for an $800,000 loan 15 months ago can now only qualify for a loan of $650,000 or less. The situation at hand has nothing to do with recession fears or what buyers think homes are worth.

          Housing demand has cratered, plain and simple. Plus nobody wants to catch themself a falling knife.

          1. I call bullshit.

            +1

            I’ve followed Scott Galloway off and on. He’s a TDS-afflicted NYC/SV liberal. IOW, not in touch with reality.

          1. Perhaps. But it seems that lately pretending to see or not see things is rather commonplace.

            Heck, when the 737MAX crashes started, the FAA tried to pretend there wasn’t a problem, until other countries withdrew their airworthiness certifications.

            But you might be right.

      2. “Binance halts US dollar deposits and withdrawals”

        Did your dollars get sealed in a crypto crypt?

      3. Meanwhile, crypto continues with moonshot after moonshot. BitCON is back near $25,000 on what, more and more bad news?

  11. “Fannie Mae’s net income decreased $9.3 billion in 2022, compared with 2021, primarily driven by a $11.4 billion shift to provision for credit losses, and a $1.6 billion shift to investment losses, partially offset by a $1.1 billion increase in fair value gains.”

    Generating US taxpayer losses to line real estate imvestors’ pockets…isn’t that special?

    1. Sounds like the WEF is sending in replacements. First in Kiwiland, then Scotland. I’m sure the new guard will be even more woke, more rainbow, more pro jab, more pro war, etc.

  13. “The data says soft landing island is looking really crowded and terminal rates are not here yet.”
    —
    https://twitter.com/MichaelKantro/status/1625316710478671873?cxt=HHwWgsCz-fq7pI4tAAAA
    Kantro @MichaelKantro

    Simple recipe for every recession:
    1) Fed tightening cycle;
    2) Food & Energy CPI >5%;
    3) Banks tightening lending standards.

    Soft landings only see #1, along with low CPI and Easing banks’ lending standards. #macro ⁦@SquawkCNBC
    ⁩[see chart]
    7:11 PM · Feb 13, 2023 · 80K Views
    —
    – Does anyone really expect a “soft landing” after literally limitless monetary and fiscal stimulus for over a decade from the Fed and Gooberment since the GFC?
    – This is “The Everything Bubble,” aka “The Central Bank Bubble,” or “The Mother of All Bubbles.” Greatest economic sh*t-show of all time, involving virtually every asset class. Essentially free “money” for years. Just look at the Fed’s and other central bank’s balance sheets. Money printing gone wild. History shows that asset bubbles always burst. The bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.
    – “Soft landing” and other similar narratives to consider:
    – The Fed isn’t evil.
    – Your Gooberment loves you.
    – Joe Biden is a great President and not a Marxist, globalist stooge.
    – Congress isn’t corrupt, is fiscally and morally responsible, and represents and vigorously defends the best interests of its constituents, vs. special interests.
    – Pigs can fly.

  16. New York Times — Combating Disinformation Wanes at Social Media Giants (2/14/2023):

    “As the companies have shed jobs recently, many teams assigned to combat false and misleading information have taken a hit.”

    https://archive.is/Un6jB

    Note that this article uses the term “policy experts” multiple times to describe these employees whose alleged credentials are literal bullsh*t.

    You’re not an “expert” of anything, and your alleged authority is as real as the Joe Biden 2020 election win.

    Enjoy the layoffs, loosers.

  17. The Science™ as directed by your Marxist globalist betters.

    New York Post — Science needs to stop using terms like male, female, mother and father, researchers say (2/14/2023):

    “Alternatives to terms like “male” and “female” and “mother” and “father” should be sought in science because they assume that sex is binary and heterosexuality is the norm, a group of researchers from the US and Canada suggests.

    Male and female should instead be referred to as “sperm-producing” and “egg-producing,” the Ecology and Evolutionary Biology (EEB) Language Project said, according to the Times of London.

    Meanwhile, father and mother should be labeled “parent,” “egg donor” and “sperm donor” in the scientific field.

    The group has called on the scientific field to use words that are more “inclusive and precise,” according to a press release from the University of British Columbia, which has three researchers in the initiative.

    “Much of Western science is rooted in colonialism, white supremacy and patriarchy, and these power structures continue to permeate our scientific culture,” some project members wrote in the Trends in Ecology and Evolution journal.”

    https://nypost.com/2023/02/14/science-needs-to-stop-using-male-female-mother-father-researchers/

    Just another day in Weimar America.

      1. “…they assume that sex is binary and heterosexuality is the norm…”

        Well, it IS the norm.

        According to the media and most of the programs I USED to enjoy watching, the LGB crowd seems to make up half of the population, as opposed to the 5% I read that actually exist.
        At this point in my life (52 now), I’m tired of seeing any sex at all on TV (even the hetero kind I like), as all it does it take away from the damn storyline/plot I’m trying to watch.

    2. “…they assume that sex is binary and heterosexuality is the norm…”

      The LBGTABCD lobby is making sh*t up now…

      1. As the saying goes: repeat a lie often enough and it will eventually be accepted as the truth. And for the Left is has been working so far, so why would they stop?

    3. Much of Western science is rooted in colonialism, white supremacy and patriarchy

      This is just getting really old.

      1. “these power structures continue to permeate our scientific culture”

        That whole last paragraph I quoted, could be the primary “argument” of any random Salon or HuffPost article.

    4. “Much of Western science is rooted in colonialism, white supremacy and patriarchy, and these power structures continue to permeate our scientific culture,”

      According to 98% of female scientists from marginalized communities, e=mc^3.

    5. “Male and female should instead be referred to as “sperm-producing” and “egg-producing,”

      Sperm-producing woman and egg-producing man have two children: an eight-year-old egg-laying male chicken, and a 10 year old DOMCROW (dog on Mondays, and a cat the rest of the week).

    6. “UBC assistant professor Dr. Kaitlyn Gaynor said the undertaking began from a Twitter conversation among a few people about terminology that is potentially harmful.”

      Everyone know dat all de bestest science be comin from da Twitter.

      1. “We reached out to different networks in ecology and evolution that were focused on increasing inclusion and equity in the field to rally support for one very specific action —revising terminology that might be harmful to certain people, particularly those from groups historically and currently excluded from science,” she said, according to the press release.

        I have never met anyone who was barred from an education in engineering or science. These accusations are baseless.

        1. Not having learned anything in grade or high school can hold a person back. I fail to see how forcing a change in word usage will overcome lack of math or language skills.

          1. I think the idea is:

            1) Minorities are to be granted STEM degrees, even if they lack competence in even the most basic fundamentals. If needed, their test scores will be padded, for “equity”.

            2) These incompetent people are to be hired by Corporate America and paid fat six figure salaries for doing absolutely nothing. They are to be promoted over Asian and White employees who actually get stuff done.

          2. Not having learned anything in grade or high school can hold a person back. I fail to see how forcing a change in word usage will overcome lack of math or language skills.

            Bingo! I have a friend who teaches in an advanced field, and the portion of the incoming class that are “marginalized” often lack basic numeracy and literacy skills one would expect of a high school graduate.

            But yeah, it’s racism and sexism that explains why they are functionally illiterate!

          3. I fail to see how forcing a change in word usage will overcome lack of math or language skills.

            Yeah, you can’t teach people who either don’t care enough to learn, or are too stupid to learn. Either way, changing words around to make them “more inclusive” isn’t going to miraculously create the desire or ability to learn.

          4. I heard that United had a near disaster the other day, where the pilots of a 777 became disoriented and almost crashed into the ocean shortly after takeoff from Hawaii. Apparently both were rookies and have been grounded, pending more training.

            So, we will be getting incompetent pilots, doctors, engineers, chemists, coders, accountants, etc.

            It’s going to be like living in Idiocracy.

      1. The worst thing of all is that this insanity is spreading throughout all of the West. Small wonder so many countries are quietly aligning themselves with the BRICS. The know the West is finished and is crumbling the way the Roman empire did.

  18. A reader sent these in:

    Only in this day and age of demagogic economic illiteracy can you be as failed a central banker as Lael Braintard, screw up your price stability mandate as hard as she did, only to become an economic advisor…how is she qualified to give advise on anything other than failure?

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1625424543635369986

    Powell uses the word disinflation 100 times within last two meetings, today, CPI comes in hot, disinflation was transitory

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1625500783532990467

    Real inflation Government
    rate: numbers:

    https://twitter.com/alifarhat79/status/1625487632963899394

    This happened on Feb 3rd in Ohio and really didn’t become a major story until the past 2-3 days, almost a week after the event. What would be the motivation of the media to avoid the story and distract us with balloons and UFOs?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1625439611307626496

    The Kobeissi Letter

    If you are disappointed with the 6.4% CPI inflation number, don’t worry. All you have to do is wait a month and they’ll “revise” it.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1625493145642500100

    Every Z estimate i look at is higher than it was before the update…(Denver)

    https://twitter.com/the_brad_abides/status/1625295664505659393

    Another few months of price falls like this Wellington will have erased all of the gains seen during the pandemic. If Auckland continues on its current course, pandemic gains would be gone by mid-year.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1625286742881501184

    New Zealand – REINZ Housing Price Update (Jan)
    Prices MoM (since peak):
    – National -1.3% (-16.3%)
    – National (ex-Auckland) -1.3% (-12.7%)
    – Auckland -1.5% (-21.4%)
    – Wellington -2.1% (-26.1%)
    The Kiwi housing price crash continues, with more to come.

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1625278538898358273

    We have our first 5% #bond

    https://twitter.com/GregCrennan/status/1625327035362189312

    Population decline in Japan is leading to a huge number of abandoned houses. 13% now and expected to grow to 1/3 by 2038. Is this the future of Europe and the USA also? Demographic changes are coming.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1625554903325151237

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    A blip of rising used car prices @Manheim_US fueled by ANTICIPATED income tax refund monies and lenders holding inventory back at auction won’t hold a candle to the clampdown in lending standards and relentless march of business closings, layoffs & bankruptcies.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1625578545396211724

    Friendly reminder: The Bank of Canada played a massive role in 🇨🇦’s real estate bubble by producing 250,000 excess home sales with its low rate policy. The policy didn’t help first-time buyers either, as per RBC. They said investors replaced first-time buyers in their portfolio.

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1625562512677605384

    Lance Lambert

    The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate just jumped to 6.62%. That’s a new high for 2023.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1625563581998632961

    Lance Lambert

    San Francisco has already given up 42% of its Pandemic Housing Boom gains. Cleveland has given up just 4% of its Pandemic Housing Boom gains. The 20 major markets individually tracked by Case-Shiller👇 Data through November 2022

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1625562187996532749

    Breaking down the January CPI report. Consumer prices increased 0.5% in Jan, the biggest monthly move since Oct. The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for ~half of the monthly all items increase.

    https://twitter.com/odetakushi/status/1625521994308501505

    I hope all of Jeremy Siegel’s stocks go to zero and he has to get a job working at a Wendy’s, where he would be the worst employee by far.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1625545237572595713

    BLS reports 6.4% CPI “inflation” for January 2023. That’s up 0.5% month over month (after 6.5% for December 2022). Doesn’t all the “disinflation” feel great?! If they keep this up, the Fed will get to its “target” sometime next decade…

    https://twitter.com/OccupytheFeds/status/1625488636195254278

    Happy Valentine’s Day to a country whose one true love ❤️ is CREDIT
    While sweet nothings of a soft landing are whispered in our ears, we willingly overlook every red flag in order to maintain our toxic love affair with consumer debt

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1625547203258335248

    The bond market is waking up to “higher for longer” with the expected Fed Funds rate for Jan 2024 rising to a new high of 4.92%.
    There has been an epic reversal of dovish bond market pricing in the last two weeks 🫥

    https://twitter.com/CameronDawson/status/1625601569843564547

    Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Words fail @RudyHavenstein
    I’m derided as a “Fed shill.”
    “Defending” Powell makes me a traitor to working men & women when my hopes were breaking the cycle of Wall Street making monetary policy to line its pockets. I’ve sat silent praying Powell stands his ground. Thank you.

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1625683278362554369

    My client said yesterday: “Not a good sign” pun intended 😊
    We toured this home owned by Opendoor, and I got so sad because they neglected this great property, made some awful renovation, painted the plants outside close to the walls, etc. On the market since June, 2022.

    https://twitter.com/popettaz/status/1624891918315589632

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Here’s the #Phoenix investor data broken down by percentage of all home purchases in that market. As a group, investors maxed out at 42% of all Phoenix home purchases in 2Q-2022, right about when housing prices peaked.

    https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1625634588499525633

    Steve Saretsky

    Real Estate investor paying 18% interest rate and facing $400k loss lists home for bidding war. Gets 17 offers, turns them all down. Private lender wants their money back but he ain’t selling!

    https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1625598671734841344

    “This is not 2008!” Correct! It’s worse

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1625633544654688256

    Rick Palacios Jr.

    Interesting watching the evolution of investor home purchases since 2008 in markets like #Phoenix. Smaller investors (dark blue) always dominate, but you can clearly see the recent rise of iBuyers (green) and institutions (light blue). Big drop overall in second half of 2022.

    https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1625631775476314113

    John Wake

    Supply Myth. “Setagaya ward in Tokyo contains some of the capital’s most desirable neighbourhoods, but it also has 50,000 abandoned houses”
    Tokyo is one of the most expensive cities in the world to buy a house and, apparently, it’s not because of a supply shortage.

    https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1625608270093385729

    Crazy how inflation still rising but home prices and rents are dropping its almost like real estate isn’t an inflation hedge

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1625620428013150214

    collapse of the US family unit (organic demand for housing) vs rise of synthetically produced financial demand for housing as an inflation hedge, income producing asset is goosing present demand, destroying mid/long term demand.

    https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1625181935873191936

    How the Fed achieves its “full employment” mandate every cycle. Push rates lower to incent ever greater debt/short-term demand. Since ’07 includes buying T’s/MBS to rig mortgage rates below market to incent more building, buying of RE. And here we go again…

    https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1625396629548441600

    Asking rents declined in 11 major metro areas with Phoenix showing the largest drop (-6.7%). Raleigh saw the largest increase with asking rents up 22.5% over the last year…

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1625706344463446016

    More than half the units in my building have been sitting empty for years. Not listed for rent, not “under construction”, just empty.

    https://twitter.com/Eric_A_Stanley/status/1624894986390220800

    Canadians now are expected to need $1.7 million Canadian dollars to retire, per BMO.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1625517973615292417

    Ron Butler
    @ronmortgageguy
    Fixed Rates Go UP Bigly
    Combination of huge growth Canadian Jobs Report and today’s persistent US CPI report drives up Fixed Rates
    By the end of the week a big jump on the 3 – Yr Fixed from a low of 4.59% to 4.99% – 5.24%
    2 Yr takes massive jump 5.09% to 5.49 – 5.69%

    https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1625595613013508096

    A property in South Surrey was listed for $10m and just sold for $5.2m. The new definition for “low ball” 😂

    https://twitter.com/jesse_kleine/status/1625538698975797248

    1. Danielle DiMartino Booth

      “A blip of rising used car prices @Manheim_US fueled by ANTICIPATED income tax refund monies and lenders holding inventory back at auction won’t hold a candle to the clampdown in lending standards and relentless march of business closings, layoffs & bankruptcies.”

      – BTW, don’t forget to include used cars (and probably new cars as well) in #TheEverythingBubble.

      – #SoftLanding is assured.

    2. Population decline in Japan is leading to a huge number of abandoned houses. 13% now and expected to grow to 1/3 by 2038. Is this the future of Europe and the USA also?

      FWIW, Japan does not have open borders.

      I have read that it is so hard to assimilate in Japan, that foreign born and raised Japanese (say from Brazil) are known to give up trying to fit in and leave Japan.

      I read another story about a foreigner who expressed interest in moving to a small Japanese town that was quickly losing population. The locals grilled him and in the end he was unwelcome. He was surprised: “They would prefer their town die than have some foreigners move in”

    3. distract us with balloons and UFOs?

      I suspect the thing being distracted from is the US having blown up the Nord Stream pipelines.

        1. Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland have admitted as much and Seymour Hersh’s reporting gives the details.

  19. 𝗣𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗮𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗮, 𝗙𝗟 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟳% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗩𝗮𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗧𝗼𝘅𝗶𝗰

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/32501/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘗𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘢𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘞𝘦’𝘷𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘨𝘭𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘴𝘢𝘭𝘦….. 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘣𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦.”

  22. investors maxed out at 42% of all Phoenix home purchases in 2Q-2022, right about when housing prices peaked.
    Hopefully lots of “investors” learn a painful and expensive lesson

  23. Raleigh saw the largest increase with asking rents up 22.5% over the last year…
    I moved to Raleigh 8/2019 and left Raleigh about 16 month ago. I back checked what my rent would have been for the same apartment had I stayed. From 8/2019 to 11/2022 rent increased 62%. And the area I lived had lots of new apartments opening.

  24. The Los Angeles Times
    CALIFORNIA
    California’s population dropped by 500,000 in two years as exodus continues
    A man and a woman stand with three young children at a pier railing overlooking beachgoers and the ocean
    At the Santa Monica pier, a family watches beachgoers in 2021.
    (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)
    Terry Castleman. (Ricardo DeAratanha / Los Angeles Times)
    BY TERRY CASTLEMAN
    STAFF WRITER
    FOLLOW
    FEB. 15, 2023 UPDATED 7:36 AM PT

    The California exodus has shown no sign of slowing down as the state’s population dropped by more than 500,000 people between April 2020 and July 2022, with the number of residents leaving surpassing those moving in by nearly 700,000.

    The population decrease was second only to New York, which lost about 15,000 more people than California, census data show.

    California has been seeing a decline in population for years, with the COVID-19 pandemic pushing even more people to move to other parts of the country, experts say. The primary reason for the exodus is the state’s high housing costs, but other reasons include the long commutes and the crowds, crime and pollution in the larger urban centers. The increased ability to work remotely — and not having to live near a big city — has also been a factor.

    The census data show that the trend has continued and point to those states that have seen population gains even as California’s has shrunk.

    Net migration out of California surpassed that of the next highest state, New York, by about 143,000 people. Nearby states such as Utah have warned Californians who might consider moving to stay out. A similar story is playing out in Nevada, where California migrants are seeking to re-create their lifestyle.

    California gained about 157,000 more people from natural change — the difference in number between births and deaths — than New York did, making New York’s total population loss greater.

    During the final year of the two-year span, from July 2021 to July 2022, California lost about 211,000 people, according to data from the state Department of Finance. Nearly half — 113,048 — were from Los Angeles County, the most populous of California’s 58 counties.

    The county had lost around 160,000 people in the previous 12 months, with nearly all of the population loss driven by domestic migration.

    Paul Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA, pointed to economic, health and sociopolitical factors driving people to leave the state. He noted that housing prices in California have pushed many to move to states where costs are lower.

    “While salaries in other regions and states are lower, the cost of housing is even lower,” he said. “This means that they have a higher standard of living because of more disposable income and/or high chance of owning.”
    …

  25. Is it safe to buy stocks again, now that inflation is contained and the Fed is preparing to pivot towards lower rates any day now?

    1. The Financial Times
      US economy
      US retail sales jump in latest sign Federal Reserve may need to keep rates high
      January’s 3% increase follows hotter-than-expected inflation and labour market data
      Shoppers on Fifth Avenue in New York
      The latest rebound in spending marks a strong recovery from December, when retail sales notched the biggest monthly decrease in a year
      Alexandra White in New York 2 hours ago

      US retail sales increased sharply in January, the latest in a series of hotter-than-expected economic data that may force the Federal Reserve to keep tightening monetary policy for longer to slow the American economy.

      Retail sales, which include spending on food and fuel, rose 3 per cent last month over December’s levels, the Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Economists expected a 1.8 per cent increase.

      The data, which included signs that American consumers have not pulled back spending on discretionary items despite high inflation, came a day after the US labour department published inflation figures that showed price pressures were not easing as much as they were late last year.
      …

      1. On the surface it sounds great: The Condo HOA takes care of the roof, the exterior, landscaping, driveways, the streets, etc. But as these condo owners are learning, that stuff is expensive. A $9K assessment? Heck, a new roof can easily cost that much. A paint job isn’t cheap either. And while it is nice to not have to fertilize, pull weeds or mow the lawn, that too costs $$$. And the HOA has other expenses: common area lighting and irrigation, fencing, sidewalk repair, insurance, management company fees, etc., etc.

        1. Always wonder about kickbacks from sub-contractors to the HOA management.

          Easy money. Hard to trace.

          Some HOA in my area (SoCal 92603/92604 are over the top.

          You wonder out loud where all that $$ is going)

  29. ‘It will definitely be one of my last holidays for a while now’

    Well, it was cheaper than renting Lorna.

    1. At this point the best hope, IMO, is for red states to secede. At first the blues will snicker and shout “good riddance, you bigoted deplorables.”

      The trick after that will be coping with the tsunami of refugees from the blue states that stay in the Republic when they, one by one, begin to collapse into anarchy and possibly starvation.

    1. I totally agree with the Dr’s conclusion that the shoddy masks were useless, but his proof is silly. He fails to realize that glasses will fog from humid air (no aerosols) if the glasses are a lower temperature than the exhaled air.

  32. ‘‘The problem in all this is it takes a while for it to show up … what might look fine one day can suddenly change a month or so later. That’s what really needs to be allowed for here … I must admit, I’m now getting a little bit more concerned’

    Regrets for all the boosterism Shane?

  34. Thank God we have Mayor Pete who nearly Mastered filling potholes in South Bend.

    Ohio train crash leaves small town in fear of toxic fallout

    Published
    3 hours ago

    By Kayla Epstein & Nadine Yousif
    BBC News
    Anxious residents are still demanding answers 12 days after a train carrying toxic chemicals derailed in the small Ohio town of East Palestine.

    “It’s pretty dramatic right now,” said James Figley, who lives just blocks from the derailment site. “The whole town’s in an uproar.”

    “If you ever burn plastic in your backyard, and [get] that black smoke? That was it,” he said. “It was black, just black. You could tell it was a chemical smell. Burning your eyes. It could get really bad if you were downwind.”

    Fires sprung up from the accident, panicking residents who lived just blocks away.

    Days later, a toxic pillar of smoke towered over the town, as officials burned off a dangerous chemical known as vinyl chloride before it could explode.

    Over the next few days, dead fish appeared in the creeks – thousands of them, officials later confirmed. People nearby told local media that their chickens died suddenly, their foxes panicked, and their pets fell ill. Residents complained of headaches, burning eyes and sore throats.

    Governor Mike DeWine said on Wednesday that while air quality in the town was safe, residents near the site of the toxic spill should drink bottled water as a precaution. State and federal officials have assured residents they were removing contaminated soil from the site, and the air and municipal water quality was now normal.

    The disconnect between what some residents have reported, and the assurances that officials continue to issue, has led to confusion and fear in East Palestine. Meanwhile, a mixture of environmental and health experts have questioned whether the site is truly safe, and social media sleuths have claimed that officials are not telling residents the whole story, despite government officials’ frequent updates and ire at the railroad company.

    Some locals have welcomed the extra scrutiny.

    “There’s way too much we don’t know,” Mr Figley said.

    The facts about East Palestine

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64642046

  35. 𝗦𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼, 𝗖𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟴% 𝗔𝘀 𝗥𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗱 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗜𝗻 𝗦𝗺𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝘂𝗶𝗻𝘀

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/95836/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘥, “𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘳𝘴.”

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