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At A Feverish Time, People Rush To Buy At Any Price, But When The Market Faces Doldrums No-One Cares Despite The Remarkable Price Discounts

A report from DS News. “A case study of two nationwide cohorts of properties brought to foreclosure in Q4 2022 reveals that proactive pricing is key to optimal distress disposition during a housing slowdown, according to Auction.com. ‘With home prices now down more than 9% from their May 2022 peak and forecast to fall further in many markets, sellers who price proactively will minimize the risk of taking on properties that are losing value every day,’ said Ali Haralson, Auction.com President.”

“The report also shows demand for distressed properties shifting lower in the last three quarters of 2022 as buyers at foreclosure auction and REO auction anticipated the downshift in the retail housing market and began bidding more conservatively. Bidding behavior at auction acts as a reliable predictor of future price appreciation in the retail market, and this bidding behavior points to falling home prices in 40% of the nation’s largest metro areas in early 2023.”

The American Statesman. “With rising mortgage interest rates continuing to batter the Austin-area housing market, median home-sales prices — both in Central Texas and the city of Austin — saw their largest declines on record in 12 years, the Austin Board of Realtors said. Prices for the homes that did sell dropped to their lowest levels since the board’s record-keeping began in 2011. In January, 2,248 homes had price decreases in the city of Austin, up almost 250% from 643 the previous January, the board’s numbers show. In the Austin region as a whole, there were 7,078 price drops compared with 1,737 in January 2022, a 307% increase.”

“Along with ‘a modest change in days on market,’ new listings jumped 63.4% to 2,988 in January compared with December, said Ashley Jackson, president of the Austin Board of Realtors.”

Community Impact. “Home prices are continuing to trend downward, and housing inventory is on a steady uptick in Central Austin. This trend was reflected throughout the Austin-Round Rock area, where median home prices decreased 6.3% to $450,000, the largest drop since July 2011, according to ABoR.”

Bisnow South Florida. “Multifamily vacancy in South Florida hit 4.6% in the fourth quarter, up from 3.2% a year earlier, according to Lee & Associates. Developers delivered nearly 15,000 units to the market over the course of the year, and the construction pipeline grew from 36,408 units to 51,569. Allen Morris Co. CEO Allen Morris said high-end apartment rents in Miami have dropped about 5%, which is not as steep of a decline as in Atlanta, where high-end multifamily rents fell 9%.  ‘A lot of projects are being tabled because people think you can’t do pie-in-the-sky rents, it’s just not going to be built. They’re going to wait till the numbers make sense,’ said Morris and Lee & Associates principal Matthew Jacocks.”

“‘We’re not seeing those really low interest rates we saw in the beginning of the pandemic when there was a buying frenzy on home,’ MG Developer Chief Development Officer Catie Naranjo said. ‘I think we’re in a different situation now where we’re going to see a lot more people inclined to rent. And probably some homebuyers that bought during that time might even regret it at this point in time.'”

CBS Bay Area. “Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most. San Jose was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. But that median price of $1,577,500 is actually down 5.8% from a year ago — and prices there have already dropped 17% from the peak $1,900,000 median price in the second quarter of last year, according to NAR.”

“San Francisco had the biggest price drop in the country, year over year, last quarter, with the median price of $1,230,000 — down 6.1% from a year ago. Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter.”

Havasu News in Arizona. “Single family home prices in Lake Havasu City declined over the last six months of 2022, on the heels of more than a year of extremely rapid price growth fueled by the covid pandemic. By the end of 2022, the average price of a home in Havasu in December was lower than it had been the year before. According to the Lake Havasu Association of Realtors, the average sale price of a home in Havasu peaked above $600,000 in May last year before starting to drift back down. The association reported that the average price of a home in October was $539,771, dropping to $492,675 in November.”

The Financial Post in Canada. “21,782 new condominiums were sold in 2022 in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) alone, even though last year’s slowdown in housing demand hit sales, which were down 30 per cent from 2021, according to a report by Urbanation Inc. Unsold inventory in the fourth quarter last year was about 15,000 units, which is in line with the 15-year average. The market slowdown was more pronounced in the fourth quarter when sales dropped by 68 per cent compared to the same time a year ago. While the 21,782 new condo sales in 2022 are in line with the long-term average, the bulk of those sales were realized in the first half of the year.”

“New condo prices in the GTA had been rising at 10 per cent annually. The recent price slowdown, similar to the previous decline that coincided with the great recession, might force some investors to pause. The estimated ownership cost for newer units is currently $4.59 psf, while the market rent for a similar quality condo is $3.98 psf, resulting in a monthly loss of $452 psf for an average-size condominium. If investors choose not to sell, they will likely subsidize tenants even with the current elevated rent levels.”

NCA NewsWire in Australia. “Former residents of a faulty Sydney building have called on state the government to buy back their homes in a plea to end what one owner described as ‘four years of psychological trauma.’ Severe structural defects and safety fears forced Mascot Towers owners to evacuate their homes in June 2019, with the building still unliveable. However, residents still face escalating mortgages, strata fees that range from $3000 to $8500 a quarter, and a $10m loan for failed remediation plans.”

“Owners were hit with new concerns on Tuesday after some people were told vandals had broken into the abandoned property. Brendan Stubbs and Hardeep Saini said owners weren’t aware of which apartments had been broken into; however, there were reports trespassers had taken up residence in some of the units. ‘Apparently, people have broken in and are squatting in the units, and there’s a rat infestation,’ Mr Stubbs told NCA NewsWire. ‘I was quite shocked by that. It’s just so upsetting.'”

“After a large-scale $50,000 renovation of their apartment, Mr Stubbs and Mr Saini only had nine months in their home before it was deemed unsafe. ‘Our unit sits directly above the support beams where the damage was, so they’ve completely gutted our unit,’ said Mr Stubbs. ‘It’s a concrete shell now. It’s just really depressing to go in there and see it.'”

“Fellow owner Derek Williams said what was once he and his wife Rachel’s ‘forever home’ had turned into ‘four years of psychological trauma.’ ‘People are facing bankruptcy. That money was meant to be used to remediate the building, but the defects got worse and we’re not able to remediate the building at all based on that,’ Mr Williams said. They argue a buyback plan would allow they to get closure, instead of a remediation plan, which would still tie them to the property once the building was fixed.”

“‘The banks will never lend against these properties because they’re essentially worthless,’ Mr Williams said. ‘You can’t borrow any more money for anything else. You’re financially ruined. It’s like a cancer people are having in their bodies, and they just want to get rid of it and have it fixed.'”

Vietnam Investment Review. “For several months, Nguyen Ngoc Thanh, a Ho Chi Minh City resident, has repeatedly offered for sale his 5,000-square metre land plot in Bao Lam district in the Central Highlands province of Lam Dong. Despite three rounds of price discounts and accepting a loss amounting to 30 per cent, he still could not find a buyer.”

“Late in 2021, Thanh had used financial leverage to buy the land plot for nearly $435,000 for speculative purposes. As the plot is in a good location, a buyer immediately asked him to sell at over $540,000, but Thanh refused. Now, as his bank loans reach maturity, Thanh has to sell for debt repayment. ‘At a feverish time, people rush to buy at any price, but when the market faces doldrums no-one cares despite the remarkable price discounts,’ Thanh lamented.”

“An experienced investor in the southern province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Le Hung is also downbeat at being shackled with many plots of land. Hung had been snapping up pieces of land for many years, in a province that is deemed a lucrative market with high liquidity. Early in 2022, news lingered that the province had allured many big investors. Hung, as a result, put up all his money and borrowed more from banks to possess many valuable land lots in diverse districts in the province such as Chau Duc, Xuyen Moc, and Phu My.”

“Not long after that, banks began to tighten credit and the market cooled down. ‘If you don’t have to borrow from banks, then you don’t have to worry, because sooner or later you will be able to sell. As I had to borrow a relatively big sum from banks amid interest rate spikes, I have struggled to find ways to sell some to take back money for debt repayment,’ Hung said.”

“From an investment perspective, Duong Minh Tien, general director of Asia New Time, is quite optimistic. ‘The real estate market is struggling due to tight credit, but psychology is the main factor causing liquidity loss. A difficult market also provides a golden opportunity for investors to ‘bottom-fish’ and buy real estate at a good price,’ Tien said.”

The Korea Times. “Young people in Korea are either closing down or opting not to open a housing subscription savings account as the real estate market here continues to remain in the doldrums. Falling home prices and a low annual deposit interest rate are also cited as the reasons behind this trend. A housing subscription savings account enables an adult to become eligible to purchase a state-subsidized or private apartment after a raffle after making deposits for a given period. It has been considered as a must for those who wish to buy their own house.”

“‘The account is kind of a white elephant for me. I’m holding it because I have poured a lot of money into it for about five years, but I feel very uncertain whether I can buy my house with that in the future,’ an office worker who asked to be identified only by her surname Jeong told The Korea Times. ‘I watched some videos that recommended transferring the money to an installment savings account that guarantees more profits now. I’m seriously considering closing down the account,’ the 27-year-old said.”

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This Post Has 102 Comments

  1. I included this link to get around the REIC games:

    https://communityimpact.com/austin/central-austin/housing-real-estate/2023/02/20/january-housing-report-central-austin-home-prices-trend-downward-housing-inventory-increases/

    The graphic shows a peak in last May at 667k. Now at 525k. pay attention to the tricks. Saying ‘average for 2022’ means they are taking the year and averaging that to keep the real crater from view. And in Austin they also play games by including all the little sh$tholes around there to mask the serious crater in Austin proper, and even more schlonging when you look at single family crap shacks.

    1. to keep the real crater from view.
      Based on the article and Assuming I subtracted/divided correctly Austin median home prices need to fall an other $140K (26.6%) to get back to January 2020 prices.

    2. “Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter.”

      Some real journalists are catching on how to properly report a real estate bust.

    1. PROPAGANDA and LIES from the Washington Post.

      Why Ukraine will win the war (2/20/2023):

      “Today, ahead of the one-year anniversary of the conflict, coverage of the war’s battles mostly focuses on the fighting along the central and southern front, with cities such as Bakhmut and Vuhledar dominating headlines. Russia has been making small gains at great human cost to its troops around the former, and has squandered thousands of its soldiers for nothing at the latter. This might look like an emerging stalemate, but it is anything but. It is, in fact, a slugfest.”

      https://archive.is/rf2In

      The only ones “winning” the war are Lockheed, Raytheon, Boeing, Northrup, General Dynamics, Blackstone, and the members of Congress that these companies purchased and own.

      American taxpayers, you are the losers.

      1. Don’t forget the reconstruction effort, which will be managed (skimmed) by the biggies such as Bechtel, Brown & Root, etc., once the meat grinder runs empty.

        1. I was a civilian .mil contractor for a few years, it’s an endless money spigot.

          Congress knows who owns them, defy the flow of the money spigot, and get primaried. Every one of the alleged “progressives” have toed the line for the war machine. Disgusting.

          1. Russia, I don’t agree with a good bit of what you post but agree 100% on the contractor waste, money spigot. I remember flying into Howard AFB, Panama…late 80’s and early 90’s, it was our stagging base for flying into Honduras and El Salvador….during the big conflict/war that we didn’t support. Lol. I was a C-130 loadmaster. I remember the dorms/barrarcks….several large being completely gutted and rebuild. I even questioned it since we were going to give up the base…I just got the shrug. Pissed me off.

            Same with a large flight opps building years ago in Afghanistan with theatre seating that was never needed , never got used.

  3. ‘The real estate market is struggling due to tight credit, but psychology is the main factor causing liquidity loss. A difficult market also provides a golden opportunity for investors to ‘bottom-fish’ and buy real estate at a good price’

    That’s the spirit Duong, bottom fish these losers!

  4. ‘Single family home prices in Lake Havasu City declined over the last six months of 2022, on the heels of more than a year of extremely rapid price growth fueled by the covid pandemic. By the end of 2022, the average price of a home in Havasu in December was lower than it had been the year before. According to the Lake Havasu Association of Realtors, the average sale price of a home in Havasu peaked above $600,000 in May last year before starting to drift back down. The association reported that the average price of a home in October was $539,771, dropping to $492,675 in November’

    These are averages and the full article in behind a paywall. But this is jaw dropping. Possibly the worst sh$thole in Arizona (saying a lot), these prices may be higher than Phoenix! Joy, count the ways you fooked up Jerry cuz this is getting cut in half or more.

    Most of them are CA equity locusts.

      1. Wouldn’t you just love to see the California equity locusts get wiped out, without the Fed riding in on a white horse with bailouts to make them whole?

    2. “Lake Havasu City”

      A great place if you like to see enhanced breasts, but wow, talk about being in the middle of nowhere. The highways out there remind me of ocean swells, endless up and down, the occasional dog carcass (fell out of the truck bed) with vultures participating in the food chain. Why anyone would plop down $600k for a shack out there is beyond me.

    3. Possibly the worst sh$thole in Arizona (saying a lot), these prices may be higher than Phoenix! Joy, count the ways you fooked up Jerry cuz this is getting cut in half or more.

      We see this all over the west – tiny towns with no jobs sporting prices in some instances higher than the metros with high-paying jobs. But work from home!

      Jerry really, really fooked this one up. Now he’s trying to soft-fight inflation to engineer a higher floor under all asset prices. Jerry for the guillotine.

  5. ‘The banks will never lend against these properties because they’re essentially worthless’

    Wa?

    ‘You can’t borrow any more money for anything else. You’re financially ruined. It’s like a cancer people are having in their bodies, and they just want to get rid of it and have it fixed’

    Don’t be a drama queen Derek, just look back on the 3 or 4 weeks of pride in ownership you got. Even today, you can ask the squatters and rats to let you paint the walls any dam color you like!

  6. ‘With home prices now down more than 9% from their May 2022 peak and forecast to fall further in many markets, sellers who price proactively will minimize the risk of taking on properties that are losing value every day’

    Ali, are you saying even the foreclosure bidders are taking a dim view of the ongoing crater? Is there nothing sacred?

  7. ‘The estimated ownership cost for newer units is currently $4.59 psf, while the market rent for a similar quality condo is $3.98 psf, resulting in a monthly loss of $452 psf for an average-size condominium. If investors choose not to sell, they will likely subsidize tenants’

    Hold yer ground investors. Even if you have to eat losses fer year after year, don’t give it away.

  9. ‘Along with ‘a modest change in days on market,’ new listings jumped 63.4% to 2,988 in January compared with December’

    This days on market crap the the lamest REIC stat. If it sells in weeks, why are borrowers slashin’ and sawin’ around 20% Ashley? 63% more shacks in one month? Tell us about the bidding wars!

    1. “This days on market crap the the lamest REIC stat.”

      With ‘muh inventory!’ running a close second. These phony metrics were never mentioned pre-2002. Who talks like this???? Liars.

    1. If Russia gets around to launching nukes it’ll be Kyiv, Warsaw, and Berlin or Munich in the opening volley.

        1. If he wants to nuke Brits, he should pick a different city. There are almost no Brits left in London.

    2. Is it just me or does it seems like this war is purposefully being conducted in a manner such as to drag on as long as possible and maximize casualties?

      1. yes, wear them down and then split them up in 100 republics. 90 for Russia, 10 for Ukraine. the latter aren’t in any way better. especially to their neighbors. two big bullies that got into a fight, and now the entire school is suffering, instead of letting them sort out their problems. they are all the same, and there will be no rest until they get split up. all of them.

        1. Ukraine will be annexed by Wall street, not Russia. The longer the fight continues the fewer of those with resistance as they become the chow in the meat grinder. The blue eyes have their focus on Russia’s gas, oil and mineral wealth, so the more conscripts fed to the meat grinder the better.

          2. a portion of those eastern frontiers and resources were most likely promised to china already. not as territories but as separate republics under their economic influence. and that’s the only way around it.

  11. 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮 𝗥𝗼𝘀𝗮, 𝗖𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟴% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗦𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗮 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝘆 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗟𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗣𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗲𝘁 𝗢𝗻 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗰𝘆 𝗙𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀

    https://www.movoto.com/ca/95401/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥, “𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘥 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 $500 𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘤𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘨𝘰𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘧𝘧.”

    2. “You will own nothing”

      Nothing but my purchased brand new many years ago SGL-21 Russian made (tough to get now thanks Barrack) AK-47.

      Saiga SGL-21 Arsenal Inc Russian AK-47 Like New (Used)
      $1,299.99

      NOTE: THIS ITEM HAS SOLD.

      MODEL: Saiga SGL-21 AK-47 Variant
      CONDITION: Please see description for full condition details.

      For sale is a Saiga SGL-21 AK-47 variant in 7.62x39mm caliber. This rifle was made in Russia by the Izhevsk plant, and then imported to the US by Arsenal Inc.

      http://www.ponyexpressfirearms.com/products/saiga-sgl-21-arsenal-inc-russian-ak-47-like-new-used/

  13. A reader sent these in:

    This is what $0 of inherited wealth + 50 years as a public servant looks like:

    https://twitter.com/JohnLeFevre/status/1627346956711346177

    Are you unsure about who to listen to when it comes to equities? Would you like me to simplify it for you in one simple equation?
    US 6m risk-free yield 5% and ⬆️
    S&P 500 earning yield 5% ⬇️
    There’s nothing else to know
    This is worse ratio in over 20 y

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1627778411384000514

    Lance Lambert

    6.8% mortgage rates in 2023 bites a lot harder than 6.8% rates did in 2002 👇 Accounting for everything (income, price, rates) this is one of the most expensive housing markets on record.

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1627815527522480129

    More than 800 big box retail stores are set to close across the nation this year #CMBS

    https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara/status/1627848915037954050

    Anyone bother to ask the @federalreserve why they still have almost $3,000,000,000,000.00 in mortgage backed securities despite housing being up almost 70 percent since covid? These people belong in jail

    https://twitter.com/mma4231987/status/1627806855891152897

    ICYMI “Will We See Double-Digit Residential Mortgage Rates — Again?” Always popular topic.

    https://twitter.com/rcwhalen/status/1627785449040236544

    Not a conspiracy believer…but anyone else find it interesting that @federalreserve & St Louis FRED no longer has home sales data available prior to 2022?

    https://twitter.com/RMSGarey/status/1627754944542478341

    The grifters in the Christian religion is even greater than those inside congress and democracy.

    https://twitter.com/sunny051488/status/1627817107932221441

    Housing prices rolling over in late 2019. Government finds Covid and uses it as an excuse to print $9t in a single year handing most to donors. Homeowners: “See, you said housing was going to collapse and it didn’t!” LOL ok

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1627788140990828544

    Here’s the issue with most homes in Phoenix, even at 2018 prices and 2.8% mortgage rates, the houses BARELY cashflow IF they can find a renter

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1627787352696561664

    This seems to be most of Phoenix right now in formerly “hot” areas. List for 2021 wish pricing and adjust lower for 6-12 months

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1627786288966541316

    Phoenix home prices falling around $9,000/mo or $108,000/yr

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1627781912550068224

    We are at the stage of the cycle where:
    – porn stars give financial advice
    – Rag Pal & Pomp came out of the gutter to pump their crap again
    … yet a bunch of monkeys think this is a new bull market 🤣🙏
    I won’t even bother to say “Don’t be stupid” anymore, do whatever you want

    https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx/status/1627752332489330719

    Are they preparing us for a new higher inflation rate? They need higher inflation for longer to inflate the debt away. They don’t really want it back down all the way to 2%. Their main goal is just not over 5% which alarms too many people.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1627847166965215235

    Lance Lambert

    “Builders have taken their medicine for the most part right now on pricing. And we think nationally, home prices—on the new home side, net of incentives—are down about 10% from peak” says @RickPalaciosJr “There’s probably not a ton of runway there left”

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1627766478400376853

    The house bubble now is worse that the house bubble in 2007, much worse. And the FED inflated that new bubble buy buying trillions of dollars of mortgages and driving interest rates down on loans. 30-year mortgages got as low as 2.6% so prices went up.

    https://twitter.com/pinatubo2007/status/1627736264563691520

    Unquestionably a source of future distressed supply. Mortgage underwriting standards WERE based on projected rental cash flows & didn’t require down payments. Wiggle room to service these mortgages fatally impaired in recession. That’s the (not) funny thing about ASS-umptions…

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1627724142228144148

    “The fundamentals for the system now are sound, but in some pockets there will be blood on the streets.”

    https://twitter.com/amyliztweets/status/1627839267493023745

    I just randomly picked a house in Nashville 😅 sold for 155k dollars in 2018. Same square footage now. I get its updated but did they do it in gold?

    https://twitter.com/RaleighFam/status/1627835032164245504

    Powell, “We need a housing reset” Also, QT under Powell:

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1627738027635183616

    U.S. 🇺🇲 CITIES DROWNING IN DEBT

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1627643519211868160

    HOUSES 🏘

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1626561161633169409

    1. “Here’s the issue with most homes in Phoenix, even at 2018 prices and 2.8% mortgage rates, the houses BARELY cashflow IF they can find a renter”

      That’s always been the case for SFR in every city. They never cash flow from day one, unless the buyer put down 50%.

    1. We should be able to coast for a while. At first, problems will be sporadic: an airplane crash, regional blackouts, some items being out of stock at stores. Spare parts might be backordered.

      Then suddenly incidents will drastically escalate. The power grid will repeatedly crash, tap water will be unsafe to drink, plenty of bare shelves at the store. You need some brake pads? Sorry, out of stock and we don’t know when they will arrive. Gasoline? Better fill up when they have it, even if your tank is nearly full, stockpile it if you have the containers. All young medical care personnel will be suspect, and patients will shun them. Of course if you are hospitalized, that will be difficult to do, so stay out of the hospital if you can.

  15. 𝗦𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗚𝗲𝗼𝗿𝗴𝗲, 𝗨𝗧 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟰% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗦𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗢𝗻 𝗦𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲

    https://www.movoto.com/saint-george-ut/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘴𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘸𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘜𝘵𝘢𝘩 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥, “𝘖𝘶𝘳 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘹𝘪𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘝𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦.”

        1. Yahoo
          Fox Business
          Bond yield nears 4% for 10-year Treasury, 2-year nears 2007 high
          Joe Toppe
          Tue, February 21, 2023 at 12:54 PM PST·2 min read
          In this article:

          Treasury yields went up on Tuesday as Wall Street weighs the breadth of additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2023.

          The yield on the 10-year Treasury reached 3.9%, notching its highest mark since Nov. 9, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury topped 4.7%, nearing a 15-year-high while posting their highest mark since Nov. 7. Both are now on pace to finish at 2023 highs.

          The CME FedWatch tool shows a 76% chance the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting and a 24% chance of a 50 basis point increase.
          …
          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-yield-nears-4-10-205434730.html

        2. Dollar’s Rebound Set to Run Through H1 2023
          Modified: Tuesday, 21 February 2023 11:33 GMT
          Written by: Gary Howes

          GBP/USD retreating from 1.24 peak
          U.S. data strengthens unexpectedly
          Investors now see 3 more Fed hikes
          And odds of rate cut by year-end fade
          Developments to fuel USD rebound until H2
          US Dollar strength ahead

          The Dollar is expected to maintain pressure on the Pound and Euro for the first half of 2023, say some analysts, a view that is gaining traction in the wake of stronger-than-expected U.S. data.

          “The strength in US data has challenged the market’s weaker dollar baseline,” says Audrey Ong, an analyst at Barclays Bank. “More of the same can fuel fears of overtightening and hard landing, hurt risk sentiment and lift the dollar.”

          The GBP/USD and EUR/USD have ‘topped out’ for now with the Dollar gathering support as investors realise U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates have higher to climb than previously expected and the prospect of a 2023 rate cut becomes more remote.

          Money market pricing shows investors are now positioned for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in both March and May.

          A significant recent development, however, is the pricing of a third additional 25bp hike in June.

          Money markets imply the outcome now has 70% odds attached.

          “The real economy remains too strong in G10 for inflation to start approaching anywhere near the 2% target in the foreseeable future,” says analyst Athanasios Vamvakidis at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
          …
          https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/18221-pound-to-dollar-tipped-to-remain-pressured-throughout-h1-2023

        3. The.Financial Times
          Eurozone interest rates
          Investors increase bets on ECB lifting rates to all-time high
          Buoyant service sector and wages fuel expectations of further rises in eurozone borrowing costs
          Verdi union members in Germany on strike at Frankfurt airport. Verdi wants 10% pay rises for 2.5mn public sector workers
          Martin Arnold in Frankfurt an hour ago

          Investors are betting the European Central Bank will raise interest rates to all-time highs, spurred on by the eurozone economy’s resilience and signs that inflation could prove tougher to rein in than expected.

          The Frankfurt-based central bank, widely seen as one of the world’s most dovish during its eight-year experiment with negative borrowing costs, is now expected to raise rates substantially this year.

          Swap markets are pricing in a jump in the ECB’s deposit rate to 3.75 per cent by September, up from the current 2.5 per cent. That would match the benchmark’s 2001 peak, when the ECB was still trying to shore up the value of the newly launched euro.
          …

      3. How come Mr Market is so glum this Fat Tuesday?

        Because Lent starts tomorrow and Mr. Market doesn’t want to give anything up?

      4. The Financial Times
        Markets Briefing Equities
        Europe and Asia stocks fall further after Wall Street sell-off
        Stronger than expected economic indicators suggest need for further interest rate rises
        A montage of the Hong Kong stock exchange building and a chart
        The latest rout in global stocks was triggered by stronger than expected economic readings from the US and Europe
        Martha Muir in London and Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong 16 minutes ago

        European and Asian stocks were hit with further declines on Wednesday after Wall Street suffered its worst day since December.

        The declines have been driven by stronger than expected economic data in the US and Europe, which has raised the prospect of central banks persisting with higher interest rates. Investors on Wednesday will look towards the release of the minutes of the latest US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the benchmark rate was raised by 0.25 percentage points.

        In Europe on Wednesday, the region-wide Stoxx 600 and France’s Cac 40 fell 0.75 per cent, while Germany’s Dax dropped 0.65 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.9 per cent.

        The latest rout in global stocks was triggered by stronger than expected economic readings from the US and Europe, which prompted investor concerns that central banks might be forced to tighten monetary policy further to subdue inflation.

        “It’s no great surprise” that the purchasing managers’ index data has sent equities into a downturn, said Jack Allen-Reynolds, deputy chief eurozone economist at Capital Economics. “We’re in this world where good news is bad news, so strong PMIs have prompted investors to expect a higher peak in interest rates.”
        …

    1. Check out the slope of the line, and then right on cue the chief hack for the Relitters® says the following:

      “Home sales are bottoming out,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

        1. How can you tell when a relitter® is lying?
          a) their lips are moving
          b) there is a commission at stake
          c) they’re talking about real estate, the economy, or the weather
          d) all of the above

    2. Just a comparison of MoM and YoY price changes, with a seasonal adjustment thrown in on the second graph. “Total” adds no meaning.

  18. The Suncor refinery in Dumver was damaged during the December -20F cold snap and is still offline. The Dumver Post is advocating that it not be reopened. Because of the shutdown, gas is $4+ per gallon in the Centennial State. It is estimated that the refinery will come back online in March or April.

    If it doesn’t reopen, I expect local gasoline prices to hit $6 this summer.

    1. That refinery has been there since long before I was born. It never froze in a cold snap before. And I’ve personally experienced temps colder than minus 20 in Denver myself. And none of those were records either.

      Isn’t diversity and equity grand?

      I’m going to miss indoor plumbing.

      1. The more expensive gas is, the less people will drive, which is exactly what the PTB want.

        I won’t be surprised if Suncor never reopens the refinery, I expect the regime to make next to impossible to reopen. The Dumver Post article was yammering about how awful the refinery is, that it was toxic, etc. These are the same people who just shrugged when the train derailed in Ohio.

  19. ‘With home prices now down more than 9% from their May 2022 peak and forecast to fall further in many markets, sellers who price proactively will minimize the risk of taking on properties that are losing value every day,’

    Translation:

    Sell now, or get priced in forever.

  20. ‘Apparently, people have broken in and are squatting in the units, and there’s a rat infestation…they’ve completely gutted our unit…It’s a concrete shell now. It’s just really depressing to go in there and see it’

    When it rains, it pours Brenden. But it was cheaper than renting!

  21. ‘Late in 2021, Thanh had used financial leverage to buy the land plot for nearly $435,000 for speculative purposes. As the plot is in a good location, a buyer immediately asked him to sell at over $540,000, but Thanh refused’

    The Ecstasy of Gold (Live) – Ennio Morricone Orchestra

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOE24dd0Xmc

    4 minutes.

      1. my former boss used to say that all the time circa 2004- then he proceeded to load up on eastern Riverside county SFR “investments”…and got slaughtered.

    2. Markets
      DOW 33,129.59 -2.06%
      S&P 500 3,997.34 -2.00%
      NASDAQ 11,492.30 -2.50%

      Fear & Greed Index
      Credit Suisse shares plunge again on report of regulatory probe
      By Olesya Dmitracova, CNN
      Updated 9:36 AM EST, Tue February 21, 2023
      Credit Suisse takes huge hit from hedge fund collapse (April, 2021)
      02:42 – Source: CNNBusiness
      London CNN —

      Shares of embattled Swiss bank Credit Suisse fell to a record low Tuesday after a report that regulators are reviewing comments the lender’s chairman made about the health of its finances.

      The bank’s stock plunged as much as 9% to trade at 2.52 Swiss francs ($2.73), before recovering slightly.

      Earlier in the day, Reuters, citing two people with knowledge of the matter, reported that Switzerland’s financial regulator was seeking to establish the extent to which Axel Lehmann, and other bank representatives, were aware that clients were still withdrawing funds when he told reporters that outflows had stopped.

      Lehmann made the remarks in interviews on December 1 and December 2, Reuters said. On December 2, the bank’s stock jumped by 9.3%. Lehmann may not have been briefed correctly before he made those comments, according to one of the people quoted by Reuters.

      Credit Suisse told CNN Tuesday: “We do not comment on speculation.” The Swiss financial regulator, Finma, declined to comment.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/21/investing/credit-suisse-stock-probe/index.html

      1. “Earlier in the day, Reuters, citing two people with knowledge of the matter, reported that Switzerland’s financial regulator was seeking to establish the extent to which Axel Lehmann, and other bank representatives, were aware that clients were still withdrawing funds when he told reporters that outflows had stopped.”

        A banker’s white lie?

    1. The Capitol Police incited a riot by coercing protesters with grenades and looked like rubber pellet rifles.

      Who ordered this?

  25. What they did to those PEACEFUL Protesters made what they did to St. George Floyd look like a pillow fight.

    Video: January 6th Was a Police Riot, Cops Admit to Attacking ‘Innocent’ Protestors

    by Frankie Stockes | National File
    February 21st 2023, 1:09 pm

    Throughout the videos, officers admit that their combative actions were only angering the crowd

    Video footage documenting police actions around the US Capitol building during the January 6th, 2021 protests against election fraud proves that the event was a police riot, and shows officers admitting to attacks on “innocent” protestors.

    A Twitter thread released this week by @InvestigateJ6 serves as a trove of information and video footage as to the truth of what happened during the January 6th demonstrations. Video footage contained in the thread documents the coordinated efforts by DC’s Metropolitan Police Department, the federal Capitol Police Department, and other law enforcement outfits to inflict maximum “pain” on January 6th demonstrators.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/video-january-6th-was-a-police-riot-cops-admit-to-attacking-innocent-protestors/

  26. Was watching a youtube video about people protesting in Oxford as the city is adopting many concepts from the “15 minute town” definition. Out of nowhere an antifa brigade materialized and began to harass the protestors.

    Someone signed a check.

    I miss the days when being a brownshirt or a red brigadier meant you worked for the Nazi or Communist Party. Now they work for the WEF.

    1. If there’s ever an “End the Fed” demo outside the Eccles Building, watch how quickly the BLM & Antifa rent-a-mobs swoop down to assault the participants while D.C. cops stand by with arms folded.

      1. The Rainbow Flag has become our version of the swa stika, it symbolizes our oppression at the hands of a minority.

        1. Except that those represented by the colors are not the oppressors, they are the proxy. That’s how we do things.

    1. I bought 20 lb of Angus Ribeye last week and put it in the freezer in vacuum sealed bags. Inch and a half +. The butcher gave me a great price to take the whole cut. I have a sharp knife. Paid cash. I guess it’s not a Delmonico until you slice it. Friday night comes around every week.

      Spending my cash on boats, women, single malt and Delmonico’s. The rest is just wasted, but I’m not paying interest.

      1. “I bought 20 lb of Angus Ribeye last week and put it in the freezer in vacuum sealed bags. Inch and a half +”

        ” Friday night comes around every week.”

        “The rest is just wasted, but I’m not paying interest.”

        You had me at 20 lb of Angus Ribeye.

      2. Blue…. my father was a WW2 vet. The majority of boomers are broke. They’re our peers. You, I and a few others are in the minority.

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion The QE retreat
      QE has become ‘Hotel California’ for central banks
      While commercial lenders change behaviour when the balance sheet expands, they do not change it back when it shrinks
      Megan Greene
      Janet Yellen in 2017, when the then Fed chair said quantitative tightening would be ‘like watching paint dry’
      Megan Greene yesterday
      The writer is an FT contributing editor and global chief economist at Kroll 

      Quantitative easing has developed a certain resemblance to the Eagles’ “Hotel California” — you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave. We should pay more attention to quantitative tightening, suggest former Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan and others in a recent paper. Commercial banks change their behaviour when there are plentiful reserves, making QT far more volatile and difficult to pull off than expected.
      …
      Better bank capitalisation could help reduce vulnerability in the face of greater liquidity needs. Bank regulators could prevent reserve hoarding by allowing banks to meet an average of liquidity requirements over time rather than daily targets. Standing repo facilities can be extended to non-banks with good collateral, as the Bank of England has recently done. Ultimately, however, the best way to get out of QE may be not to start it in the first place. You don’t have to check out if you’ve never checked in.
      …

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