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The Default Cycle Is Just Beginning

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  1. From the first 4 minute video:

    4 reasons you should sell your rental property right now. Las Vegas real estate
    Elaine Odeh Las Vegas Realtor
    Feb 21, 2023
    The current state of the Las Vegas housing market shows that the time to sell a rental property is now. According to many experts, the market is on the verge of a crash, and the longer property owners wait to sell, the more they risk losing money. In this video, I talk about the top 4 reasons why it is a good idea to sell a rental property now.
    1. Housing prices are dropping significantly
    2. Rental rates are declining rapidly
    3. Housing inventories are rising sharply
    4. Potential recession could lead to a housing market collapse

    The second 6:29 video:

    The Default Cycle Is Just Beginning | Vancouver Real Estate
    Feb 21, 2023
    In this video Abbotsford realtor Conor Kelly goes over why the default cycle may only be JUST beginning.

    Recently a large Vancouver developer Coromandel properties has filed for creditor protection (bankruptcy) as they cannot afford to carry their $700m debt any longer. Conor expects to see more of this going forward and in this video he talks about whats next for the Canadian real estate market.

    The third 12:47 video:

    Some Sellers Making Big Mistakes In Brampton, Mississauga & Durham Real Estate – Feb 15
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    Feb 22, 2023

    Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate Market Report for the week of Feb 9 – Feb 15, 2023.

  2. ๐—š๐—ถ๐—น๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ, ๐—ก๐—› ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—–๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿณ% ๐—ฌ๐—ข๐—ฌ ๐—”๐˜€ ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—˜๐—ป๐—ด๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฆ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ด๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ข๐—ป ๐—–๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐——๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ

    ๐˜ˆ๐˜ด ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ ๐˜•๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ๐˜ด๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ด๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ฅ, โ€œ๐˜š๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏโ€™๐˜ต ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ. ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ซ๐˜ถ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ง๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜จ๐˜ข๐˜จ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ต.โ€

  3. A โ€œblowout jobs reportโ€ pushed the unemployment rate to a 53-year low of 3.4% in January, and despite persistent inflation, consumers keep fueling the economy with robust spending. Normally, that would be great news, but St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Wednesday it means the fight against inflation is far from over.

    Fed officials have raised interest rates eight times over the past year in hopes of cooling the economy and taming red-hot inflation, and theyโ€™ve managed to slow year-over-year consumer price increases from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June to 6.4% last month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even mentioned the word โ€œdisinflationโ€ 13 times in his early February press conference, striking a far more optimistic tone than he did in 2022.

    But Bullard cautioned Wednesday that the latest labor market and retail sales data show that โ€œthe U.S. economy is stronger than we previously thought,โ€ which could lead to a โ€œtougher road ahead for disinflation in 2023.โ€

    โ€œLetโ€™s hope that we get disinflation in 2023, but right now it [the economic data] came in hotter than we thought,โ€ he told CNBC Wednesday, arguing the Fedโ€™s benchmark interest rate will need to move โ€œnorthโ€ of 5%.

    1. the latest labor market and retail sales data show that โ€œthe U.S. economy is stronger than we previously thought

      Retail sales = Strong Economy!

      According to FRED, retail sales are up 4% YoY in terms of dollars spent. If one considers that prices are up more than 2x that, isn’t it signaling a big problem? Less Stuff Bought is not Strength.

    2. consumers keep fueling the economy with robust spending

      How odd. Everyone I talk with says they are cutting back: hanging onto the old car, staycation, etc. Big box stores are cutting back or going BK.

  4. If you owe more on your auto loan than your vehicle is worth โ€” known as being โ€œupside downโ€ โ€” then you have negative equity.

    For example, if you have $15,000 left to pay on your auto loan and your car is now worth $10,000, that means you have negative equity of $5,000 that you still have to pay.

    According to Edmunds, the average amount owed on upside-down loans in Q4 2022 was $5,341 compared to $4,141 in Q4 2021.

    Dealing with negative equity will require some planning and will likely take a larger chunk out of your monthly budget. If you canโ€™t pay off your old auto loan out of pocket, youโ€™ll have to roll the negative equity over to your new loan. This increases your risk of defaulting as youโ€™ll be dealing with the higher monthly cost of paying for two cars at once.

    โ€œAs we shifted toward an environment with diminished used car values and rising interest rates over the past few months, consumers have become less insulated from those riskier loan decisions,โ€ Drury added. โ€œWe are only seeing the tip of the negative equity iceberg.โ€

  5. After a short break, mortgage rates are back up โ€” at nearly 6.87% as of Tuesday afternoon for the 30-year fixed-rate loan, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates are up as the market anticipates further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve to address inflation and heat in the economy.

    โ€œIn just the first two weeks of February, mortgage rates shot back up by as much as ยพ of a percentage point, erasing much of the decline from their peak around Halloween, and proving that no one can count on a consistent downward trajectory for rates this year,โ€ Zillow said.

    โ€œLike Punxsutawney Phil returning to his burrow after seeing his shadow, buyers may return to hibernation if last monthโ€™s mortgage rate thaw turned out to be a false spring,โ€ they added.

  6. Oh no! Not the precious Blue Checkmarks!

    Washington Post — Russian propagandists are buying Twitter blue-check verifications (2/22/2023):

    “The accounts claim to be based outside of Russia, so they can pay for verification without running afoul of U.S. sanctions. But they pass along articles from state-run media, statements by Russian officials, and lies about Ukraine from Kremlin allies, according to the research group Reset, which shared its findings with The Washington Post.

    Most of the dozen such accounts identified by Reset were created last year during the first phase of the war in Ukraine. Archived webpages show the accounts lacked blue check marks until recently, after new owner Elon Musk introduced a pay-to-play model and said he would phase out the legacy verifications that have identified politicians, journalists and other notable figures and weeded out impostors.

    Reset said the surge showed a major problem with a system that allows anonymous accounts to buy verification, giving them better placement in searches, mentions and replies. The accounts it turned up are โ€œopenly sharing content from Russian state media, Kremlin-aligned disinformation about the conflict in Ukraine and outright war propaganda,โ€ the group wrote.

    Among the most popular is @Runews, which was around for over a decade before getting a blue check. Describing itself as a โ€œcitizen journalist,โ€ it reaches 260,000 followers with sometimes heavy-handed propaganda, such as its repeated recent suggestions that Ohio โ€œshould really declare itself part of Ukraine in hopes of receiving aid from Biden administration.โ€ (The statement omitted the word โ€œthe,โ€ which is a common mistake by native Russian speakers.)

    The account โ€œis regularly engaging with content coming from Russian state media such as RT International @RT_com or editor in chief Margarita Simonyan @m_simonyan. It is also sharing videos from Russian media or other pro-Russian channels with content deriding the E.U., NATO, Ukraine, the West as a whole and clearly supporting Russiaโ€™s actions in the war,โ€ Reset wrote. โ€œIt also produces content geared toward the U.S. Republican Twitterverse.โ€

    “content deriding the E.U., NATO, Ukraine, the West as a whole”

    Russia is winning.

    1. Again, everybody must stop eating.
      Sad thing is that is essentially what happened in China from 1959-1963. The 2 people I know who survived that time period make food availability/security a huge priority.

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