A weekend topic starting with the Globe and Mail in Canada. "Jamie Dimon said it…
This Post Has 12 Comments
From the first 4 minute video:
4 reasons you should sell your rental property right now. Las Vegas real estate
Elaine Odeh Las Vegas Realtor
Feb 21, 2023
The current state of the Las Vegas housing market shows that the time to sell a rental property is now. According to many experts, the market is on the verge of a crash, and the longer property owners wait to sell, the more they risk losing money. In this video, I talk about the top 4 reasons why it is a good idea to sell a rental property now.
1. Housing prices are dropping significantly
2. Rental rates are declining rapidly
3. Housing inventories are rising sharply
4. Potential recession could lead to a housing market collapse
The second 6:29 video:
The Default Cycle Is Just Beginning | Vancouver Real Estate
Feb 21, 2023
In this video Abbotsford realtor Conor Kelly goes over why the default cycle may only be JUST beginning.
Recently a large Vancouver developer Coromandel properties has filed for creditor protection (bankruptcy) as they cannot afford to carry their $700m debt any longer. Conor expects to see more of this going forward and in this video he talks about whats next for the Canadian real estate market.
The third 12:47 video:
Some Sellers Making Big Mistakes In Brampton, Mississauga & Durham Real Estate – Feb 15
Team Sessa Real Estate
Feb 22, 2023
Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate Market Report for the week of Feb 9 – Feb 15, 2023.
A โblowout jobs reportโ pushed the unemployment rate to a 53-year low of 3.4% in January, and despite persistent inflation, consumers keep fueling the economy with robust spending. Normally, that would be great news, but St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Wednesday it means the fight against inflation is far from over.
Fed officials have raised interest rates eight times over the past year in hopes of cooling the economy and taming red-hot inflation, and theyโve managed to slow year-over-year consumer price increases from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June to 6.4% last month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even mentioned the word โdisinflationโ 13 times in his early February press conference, striking a far more optimistic tone than he did in 2022.
But Bullard cautioned Wednesday that the latest labor market and retail sales data show that โthe U.S. economy is stronger than we previously thought,โ which could lead to a โtougher road ahead for disinflation in 2023.โ
โLetโs hope that we get disinflation in 2023, but right now it [the economic data] came in hotter than we thought,โ he told CNBC Wednesday, arguing the Fedโs benchmark interest rate will need to move โnorthโ of 5%.
the latest labor market and retail sales data show that โthe U.S. economy is stronger than we previously thought
Retail sales = Strong Economy!
According to FRED, retail sales are up 4% YoY in terms of dollars spent. If one considers that prices are up more than 2x that, isn’t it signaling a big problem? Less Stuff Bought is not Strength.
Retail sales = Strong Economy!
On credit!!
consumers keep fueling the economy with robust spending
How odd. Everyone I talk with says they are cutting back: hanging onto the old car, staycation, etc. Big box stores are cutting back or going BK.
If you owe more on your auto loan than your vehicle is worth โ known as being โupside downโ โ then you have negative equity.
For example, if you have $15,000 left to pay on your auto loan and your car is now worth $10,000, that means you have negative equity of $5,000 that you still have to pay.
According to Edmunds, the average amount owed on upside-down loans in Q4 2022 was $5,341 compared to $4,141 in Q4 2021.
Dealing with negative equity will require some planning and will likely take a larger chunk out of your monthly budget. If you canโt pay off your old auto loan out of pocket, youโll have to roll the negative equity over to your new loan. This increases your risk of defaulting as youโll be dealing with the higher monthly cost of paying for two cars at once.
โAs we shifted toward an environment with diminished used car values and rising interest rates over the past few months, consumers have become less insulated from those riskier loan decisions,โ Drury added. โWe are only seeing the tip of the negative equity iceberg.โ
After a short break, mortgage rates are back up โ at nearly 6.87% as of Tuesday afternoon for the 30-year fixed-rate loan, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates are up as the market anticipates further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve to address inflation and heat in the economy.
โIn just the first two weeks of February, mortgage rates shot back up by as much as ยพ of a percentage point, erasing much of the decline from their peak around Halloween, and proving that no one can count on a consistent downward trajectory for rates this year,โ Zillow said.
โLike Punxsutawney Phil returning to his burrow after seeing his shadow, buyers may return to hibernation if last monthโs mortgage rate thaw turned out to be a false spring,โ they added.
So much for the oft-repeated REIC line that mortgages will settle in the mid-5s.
Oh no! Not the precious Blue Checkmarks!
Washington Post — Russian propagandists are buying Twitter blue-check verifications (2/22/2023):
“The accounts claim to be based outside of Russia, so they can pay for verification without running afoul of U.S. sanctions. But they pass along articles from state-run media, statements by Russian officials, and lies about Ukraine from Kremlin allies, according to the research group Reset, which shared its findings with The Washington Post.
Most of the dozen such accounts identified by Reset were created last year during the first phase of the war in Ukraine. Archived webpages show the accounts lacked blue check marks until recently, after new owner Elon Musk introduced a pay-to-play model and said he would phase out the legacy verifications that have identified politicians, journalists and other notable figures and weeded out impostors.
Reset said the surge showed a major problem with a system that allows anonymous accounts to buy verification, giving them better placement in searches, mentions and replies. The accounts it turned up are โopenly sharing content from Russian state media, Kremlin-aligned disinformation about the conflict in Ukraine and outright war propaganda,โ the group wrote.
Among the most popular is @Runews, which was around for over a decade before getting a blue check. Describing itself as a โcitizen journalist,โ it reaches 260,000 followers with sometimes heavy-handed propaganda, such as its repeated recent suggestions that Ohio โshould really declare itself part of Ukraine in hopes of receiving aid from Biden administration.โ (The statement omitted the word โthe,โ which is a common mistake by native Russian speakers.)
The account โis regularly engaging with content coming from Russian state media such as RT International @RT_com or editor in chief Margarita Simonyan @m_simonyan. It is also sharing videos from Russian media or other pro-Russian channels with content deriding the E.U., NATO, Ukraine, the West as a whole and clearly supporting Russiaโs actions in the war,โ Reset wrote. โIt also produces content geared toward the U.S. Republican Twitterverse.โ
“content deriding the E.U., NATO, Ukraine, the West as a whole”
Russia is winning.
A Chinese city with a population of 7.7 million drew public attention Thursday for almost losing its bus services because of a lack of funds, highlighting the financial strain local governments are under after years of spending on Covid controls.
Again, everybody must stop eating.
Sad thing is that is essentially what happened in China from 1959-1963. The 2 people I know who survived that time period make food availability/security a huge priority.
From the first 4 minute video:
4 reasons you should sell your rental property right now. Las Vegas real estate
Elaine Odeh Las Vegas Realtor
Feb 21, 2023
The current state of the Las Vegas housing market shows that the time to sell a rental property is now. According to many experts, the market is on the verge of a crash, and the longer property owners wait to sell, the more they risk losing money. In this video, I talk about the top 4 reasons why it is a good idea to sell a rental property now.
1. Housing prices are dropping significantly
2. Rental rates are declining rapidly
3. Housing inventories are rising sharply
4. Potential recession could lead to a housing market collapse
The second 6:29 video:
The Default Cycle Is Just Beginning | Vancouver Real Estate
Feb 21, 2023
In this video Abbotsford realtor Conor Kelly goes over why the default cycle may only be JUST beginning.
Recently a large Vancouver developer Coromandel properties has filed for creditor protection (bankruptcy) as they cannot afford to carry their $700m debt any longer. Conor expects to see more of this going forward and in this video he talks about whats next for the Canadian real estate market.
The third 12:47 video:
Some Sellers Making Big Mistakes In Brampton, Mississauga & Durham Real Estate – Feb 15
Team Sessa Real Estate
Feb 22, 2023
Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate Market Report for the week of Feb 9 – Feb 15, 2023.
๐๐ถ๐น๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฑ, ๐ก๐ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ณ% ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ ๐ก๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ป๐ด๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐ด๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ข๐ป ๐๐ผ๐น๐น๐ฎ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ
https://www.movoto.com/gilford-nh/market-trends/
๐๐ด ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ธ ๐๐ข๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ด๐ฉ๐ช๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฃ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ด๐ข๐ช๐ฅ, โ๐๐ฆ๐ญ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฐ ๐ฃ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฌ๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ฅ๐ฐ๐ฏโ๐ต ๐ฉ๐ข๐ท๐ฆ ๐ต๐ธ๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฃ ๐ต๐ฐ๐จ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ. ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ซ๐ถ๐ด๐ต ๐ธ๐ข๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ต ๐ง๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ช๐ณ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ต๐จ๐ข๐จ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ต ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ด๐ต.โ
A โblowout jobs reportโ pushed the unemployment rate to a 53-year low of 3.4% in January, and despite persistent inflation, consumers keep fueling the economy with robust spending. Normally, that would be great news, but St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Wednesday it means the fight against inflation is far from over.
Fed officials have raised interest rates eight times over the past year in hopes of cooling the economy and taming red-hot inflation, and theyโve managed to slow year-over-year consumer price increases from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June to 6.4% last month. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even mentioned the word โdisinflationโ 13 times in his early February press conference, striking a far more optimistic tone than he did in 2022.
But Bullard cautioned Wednesday that the latest labor market and retail sales data show that โthe U.S. economy is stronger than we previously thought,โ which could lead to a โtougher road ahead for disinflation in 2023.โ
โLetโs hope that we get disinflation in 2023, but right now it [the economic data] came in hotter than we thought,โ he told CNBC Wednesday, arguing the Fedโs benchmark interest rate will need to move โnorthโ of 5%.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/danger-falling-1970s-style-inflation-175207618.html
the latest labor market and retail sales data show that โthe U.S. economy is stronger than we previously thought
Retail sales = Strong Economy!
According to FRED, retail sales are up 4% YoY in terms of dollars spent. If one considers that prices are up more than 2x that, isn’t it signaling a big problem? Less Stuff Bought is not Strength.
Retail sales = Strong Economy!
On credit!!
consumers keep fueling the economy with robust spending
How odd. Everyone I talk with says they are cutting back: hanging onto the old car, staycation, etc. Big box stores are cutting back or going BK.
If you owe more on your auto loan than your vehicle is worth โ known as being โupside downโ โ then you have negative equity.
For example, if you have $15,000 left to pay on your auto loan and your car is now worth $10,000, that means you have negative equity of $5,000 that you still have to pay.
According to Edmunds, the average amount owed on upside-down loans in Q4 2022 was $5,341 compared to $4,141 in Q4 2021.
Dealing with negative equity will require some planning and will likely take a larger chunk out of your monthly budget. If you canโt pay off your old auto loan out of pocket, youโll have to roll the negative equity over to your new loan. This increases your risk of defaulting as youโll be dealing with the higher monthly cost of paying for two cars at once.
โAs we shifted toward an environment with diminished used car values and rising interest rates over the past few months, consumers have become less insulated from those riskier loan decisions,โ Drury added. โWe are only seeing the tip of the negative equity iceberg.โ
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tip-negative-equity-iceberg-record-173000474.html
After a short break, mortgage rates are back up โ at nearly 6.87% as of Tuesday afternoon for the 30-year fixed-rate loan, according to Mortgage News Daily. Rates are up as the market anticipates further interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve to address inflation and heat in the economy.
โIn just the first two weeks of February, mortgage rates shot back up by as much as ยพ of a percentage point, erasing much of the decline from their peak around Halloween, and proving that no one can count on a consistent downward trajectory for rates this year,โ Zillow said.
โLike Punxsutawney Phil returning to his burrow after seeing his shadow, buyers may return to hibernation if last monthโs mortgage rate thaw turned out to be a false spring,โ they added.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/home-values-fell-the-most-in-these-3-housing-markets-since-last-year-says-zillow/ar-AA17LDUX
So much for the oft-repeated REIC line that mortgages will settle in the mid-5s.
Oh no! Not the precious Blue Checkmarks!
Washington Post — Russian propagandists are buying Twitter blue-check verifications (2/22/2023):
“The accounts claim to be based outside of Russia, so they can pay for verification without running afoul of U.S. sanctions. But they pass along articles from state-run media, statements by Russian officials, and lies about Ukraine from Kremlin allies, according to the research group Reset, which shared its findings with The Washington Post.
Most of the dozen such accounts identified by Reset were created last year during the first phase of the war in Ukraine. Archived webpages show the accounts lacked blue check marks until recently, after new owner Elon Musk introduced a pay-to-play model and said he would phase out the legacy verifications that have identified politicians, journalists and other notable figures and weeded out impostors.
Reset said the surge showed a major problem with a system that allows anonymous accounts to buy verification, giving them better placement in searches, mentions and replies. The accounts it turned up are โopenly sharing content from Russian state media, Kremlin-aligned disinformation about the conflict in Ukraine and outright war propaganda,โ the group wrote.
Among the most popular is @Runews, which was around for over a decade before getting a blue check. Describing itself as a โcitizen journalist,โ it reaches 260,000 followers with sometimes heavy-handed propaganda, such as its repeated recent suggestions that Ohio โshould really declare itself part of Ukraine in hopes of receiving aid from Biden administration.โ (The statement omitted the word โthe,โ which is a common mistake by native Russian speakers.)
The account โis regularly engaging with content coming from Russian state media such as RT International @RT_com or editor in chief Margarita Simonyan @m_simonyan. It is also sharing videos from Russian media or other pro-Russian channels with content deriding the E.U., NATO, Ukraine, the West as a whole and clearly supporting Russiaโs actions in the war,โ Reset wrote. โIt also produces content geared toward the U.S. Republican Twitterverse.โ
https://archive.is/nxaj2
“content deriding the E.U., NATO, Ukraine, the West as a whole”
Russia is winning.
A Chinese city with a population of 7.7 million drew public attention Thursday for almost losing its bus services because of a lack of funds, highlighting the financial strain local governments are under after years of spending on Covid controls.
https://news.yahoo.com/chinese-city-goes-viral-lack-081809097.html
Again, everybody must stop eating.
Again, everybody must stop eating.
Sad thing is that is essentially what happened in China from 1959-1963. The 2 people I know who survived that time period make food availability/security a huge priority.