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A Lot Of It Is Just Evidence Of Failed Speculative Activity

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “After reaching a peak of $670,000 in May 2022, median home prices in Northwest Austin have been consistently declining since August, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. February marks the seventh month straight of declining median home prices in the area. Compared to the previous year, median home prices are down 21.7%, data shows. The Austin-Round Rock metropolitan area peak in May 2022 was $550,000, while prices in February are down to $436,419. This represents a 12.2% decrease in prices compared to the previous year.”

“From one coast to another, the collapse of California-based Silicon Valley Bank has now sent tidal waves to Florida’s real estate market, one broker claimed on Thursday. ‘It’s definitely cooled down a bit. Gone are the days when we would put properties on the market and we would expect a bidding war within a few days,’ said Sandals Realty Group broker Amanda Glass. ‘It’s not happening anymore.’ The number of homes sold in Palm Beach County have also decreased. ‘It’s definitely shifted more towards a buyer’s market. The sellers have to do what buyers are interested in at this point and adjust more accordingly,’ Glass said.”

“A recent report from Rocket Homes shows Raleigh and Durham are still ‘seller’s markets.’ However, the market is slowly shifting, experts say. Properties are staying listed longer, and inventory is creeping up. ‘Even though new listings are down, there’s a ton of inventory,’ said Colleen Blondell, owner of Cary-based Blondell Properties. ‘Inventory has continued to increase since May of last year.'”

“In its February report, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) shared that sales of existing homes (meaning ones that no longer have that new-home smell) in the Commonwealth declined for the 12th month in a row. But association president David McCarthy said those numbers need to be viewed in perspective: as COVID-driven sales when people clamored for more space to wait out the pandemic. ‘We had such a significant volume of sales in 2021 that it appears like the market is soft when it’s not,’ McCarthy said. In Greater Boston, however, the median sales price in both the single-family and condo markets dropped year-over-year in February. In the Quincy condo market, the median sales price slipped 4.7% to $405,000, and sales were down 52%. In Malden, the median sales price fell nearly 15%.”

“There were just 980,000 homes for sale at the end of February, according to the Realtors. At a recent open house in Cleveland, Ohio, home shopper Katie Berardi said higher mortgage rates have had an impact on what she and her husband can afford. The home she was touring was originally listed at $450,000, but no one showed up at the first open, according to the listing agent, who subsequently slashed the price. ‘This is a bigger house; you cannot build this house for $450,000 right now,’ said Michelle Santoro, an agent with Russell Realty Services. ‘But unfortunately, the market just didn’t like my thoughts, so we went down to $350,000, and now I’ve created a market frenzy.'”

“In the D.C. metro, almost 21,000 new apartment units were permitted last year. ‘The number of apartments under construction nationwide is up 25% from a year ago to nearly a million apartments under construction, which is the highest in nearly five decades,’ said Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr.”

“East Bay landlords filled the foyer at Oakland City Hall on Tuesday afternoon, their rally chants and speeches echoing off the walls as they called for an end to the city’s COVID-19 eviction moratorium. Many property owners said they’re owed tens of thousands of dollars in rent from tenants they can’t evict. ‘How many of you are being stolen from right now?’ Seneca Scott, an activist and former mayoral candidate who organized the rally, asked the group in the foyer. They cheered in response. ‘We have government-enabled theft,’ he said.”

“A business roundtable brought frustrated small landlords in front of the Seattle City Council Wednesday. ‘I don’t think anyone would fault me for saying, ‘Hey, I don’t want to be a landlord in Seattle anymore’,’ said Ayda, a former landlord. She says the entire situation took an emotional and financial toll. ‘Absorbing a $120,000 loss was truly untenable. The city had no solutions for me,’ she said.”

“The lifeblood of the commercial real estate industry is under threat as regional banks reel from the recent marquee failures of two of their own. ‘I think a lot of people have been in denial about the value of their real estate because we haven’t seen trades,’ said Brett Forman, principal at Forman Capital, a South Florida-based CRE debt and equity lender. ‘I think it’s going to have a profound effect on regional banks.'”

“At the close of 2022, the value of office properties flagged as having a higher probability of distress already totaled nearly $40B, outpacing any other asset class. Transaction volume for office deals was down 66% year-over-year in February. Then came the bank failures. After months of funneling money into distressed assets, owners facing a dearth of available debt may choose to send the keys back to the bank — a phenomenon unfolding across several major metros. ‘You’re seeing some of the biggest landlords in the country default on their loans on purpose because they know they can’t make the economics work anymore,’ said Bill Baumgardner, executive vice president at VanTrust Real Estate in Dallas. ‘It’ll just continue to go in that direction.'”

“Already, some banks have moved to offload commercial mortgages. Renasant Bank filed a notice of foreclosure on an $11.9M loan attached to a two-story office building in the Atlanta area. In New York City, the owner of a nearly finished boutique office project said he was forced into bankruptcy court after his lender, Cecora Investment Advisors, initiated foreclosure proceedings, according to The Real Deal.”

“A secluded multi-bedroom mansion north of Toronto, a Scarborough bungalow, and an Etobicoke detached home that’s been on the market for months. The listings for these properties are peppered with language that reminds buyers to manage their expectations, to treat the properties ‘as is’ and do their own due diligence. They’re just a few examples of the rising number of forced sales in the GTA, according to realtor analysis of listing data. Toronto-based realtor Daniel Foch found 35 power of sale listings in February, up from 12 the year before and zero in February 2020.”

“‘We’re seeing more volume of distressed properties. That’s evidence that there’s increased distress in the market right now,’ said Foch. ‘A lot of it is just evidence of failed speculative activity,’ Foch said, referring to investors and would-be flippers, who got caught out by the changing market and rising rates. ‘In the majority of cases there’s more than one lender on the property he said. ‘It just shows to me that leverage is what kills in real estate.'”

“Speaking generally, Foch said there are also ‘quite a few’ homes that are halfway through extensive renovations up for power of sale. ‘It’s some people that were renting out properties that were cash negative, some people going to flip a property and maybe got caught, maybe they bought at a bad time, they bought it in January or February of last year and they gave up on the renovation because there was no point,’ he said.”

“Mortgage broker Jonathan Gibson said he’s seeing a lot of private lenders who were lending using home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Now that the interest rates are so much higher, it’s just not worth it for many of them, and private mortgage renewal clauses are typically, ‘at the lenders’ discretion.’ ‘These lenders are basically saying we’re not renewing this thing, you can go find a new lender,’ he said.”

“The housing market has gone quiet, triggering the biggest sales slump in nearly 40 years. CoreLogic NZ’s new Housing Chart Pack indicated 60,859 properties were sold in the year to February, which was the lowest 12-month total since October 1983. ‘Few vendors are in a hurry to sell, given that unemployment remains low. And those buyers who have secured finance know that they can take their time too, with listings abundant and prices falling,’ said CoreLogic NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson.”

“The primary reason that the Fed finds itself in its present policy predicament of having to choose between reducing inflation and reducing financial market strains is that it kept monetary policy far too loose for far too long in 2021. At a time when the stock market and the housing market were booming, the Fed chose to continue flooding the market with liquidity. It did so by buying $120 billion a month in US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.”

“The net result of the Fed’s monetary policy largesse is that not only did we get multi-decade high inflation. We also got an equity and housing market bubble and very poor credit market decisions, including those in the banking system. One would have to engage in wishful thinking to believe that we will not see a rolling banking crisis later this year as more banks are found to have been swimming naked in the period of easy Fed money. One would also have to engage in wishful thinking to believe that the combination of a hawkish interest rate hiking cycle and a credit crunch at the regional banks will not lead to a recession later this year.”

“The moral of the story is that it would have been better had the Fed not been asleep at the wheel in 2021 when inflationary pressures were building and an asset price and credit market bubble was forming. However, that would seem to be water under the bridge and it will be we who will be paying a painful price for the Fed’s blunders in the form of a hard economic landing.”

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This Post Has 85 Comments

  2. ‘more banks are found to have been swimming naked’

    Finally, neeked swimmers!

    ‘according to the Austin Board of Realtors…February marks the seventh month straight of declining median home prices in the area. Compared to the previous year, median home prices are down 21.7%’

    Hey, it’s still a sellers market!

  3. ‘The home she was touring was originally listed at $450,000, but no one showed up at the first open, according to the listing agent, who subsequently slashed the price. ‘This is a bigger house; you cannot build this house for $450,000 right now,’ said Michelle Santoro, an agent with Russell Realty Services. ‘But unfortunately, the market just didn’t like my thoughts, so we went down to $350,000, and now I’ve created a market frenzy’

    Yer a genius Michelle!

    1. “you cannot build this house for $450,000 right now,’ said Michelle Santoro, an agent”

      You’re right Michelle…you can’t. Nor can you estimate, perform a takeoff, buy out materials or coordinate. In fact you bring no value at all. That’s why your a realturd.

  4. ‘You’re seeing some of the biggest landlords in the country default on their loans on purpose because they know they can’t make the economics work anymore…It’ll just continue to go in that direction’

    So no more good money after bad. Strategic default? Worser Bill?

    1. The lists of vacant unwanted property are going to be mind numbing to try to process in a few years. I remember in past episodes my head would hurt trying to cross reference every available home within my range in a given region. The government is going to own a lot of stuff before this is over and there will be huge discounts to get rid of it all. Now is definitely NOT the time to buy.

      1. The government is going to own a lot of stuff before this is over and there will be huge discounts to get rid of it all.

        Might they use all these unwanted shanties to house nuevos americanos?

        Imagine a struggling family trying to hang onto their shack, only to see MS-13 types move into the vacant houses in the neighborhood.

    2. “The uncertainty, the ability to get new debt and the cost of equity, if you have to recapitalize, is going to preclude some owners from being able to continue to hold onto the assets,” Fagan said. “They’re not going to bet on the future of that asset from their cost basis anymore — a new owner will have to get a new cost basis.”

      In other words:
      – there will be a new owner
      – the new owner will get it for less
      – the bank and the previous owner will take a loss

  5. ‘And those buyers who have secured finance know that they can take their time too, with listings abundant and prices falling’

    That’s the spirit Kelvin, keep up the good work!

  6. ‘There were just 980,000 homes for sale at the end of February, according to the Realtors…The number of apartments under construction nationwide is up 25% from a year ago to nearly a million apartments under construction, which is the highest in nearly five decades’

    Wa happened to my shortage UHS?

    1. Replacing SFH with apartment “homes,” maybe. I don’t think I’ve seen a new build sub 1500 sq ft since 1995, never mind a 1/5 acre lot. They want us to own nothing.

      1. want us to own nothing

        They do want you to own something. It will simply be less, more expensive and you pay for it with borrowed money. They want the rent on the money.

        It is sadly ironic that if you want more, and quicker, you will end up with a lot less, having handed over the lion’s share of the proceeds of your short working career to the Rentiers.

  7. ‘In the majority of cases there’s more than one lender on the property he said. ‘It just shows to me that leverage is what kills in real estate’

    Leverage, speculation and variable rates – sound lending K-da!

  9. Compared to the previous year, median home prices are down 21.7%, data shows.

    Is that a lot?

  10. ‘Even though new listings are down, there’s a ton of inventory,’ said Colleen Blondell, owner of Cary-based Blondell Properties.

    But…but the NAR assured us that once inventory appeared, all that pent-up demand waiting on the sidelines would rush in to snap it up. Now Spring has officially sprung, and still no Spring Miracle Revival in sight.

    1. “Eckstrom has said the Annual Comprehensive Financial Report exaggerated the state’s cash balances for a decade by double counting the money sent to colleges and universities. The mistake went unsolved until a junior staffer fixed the error this fall.”

      Oops!

      1. Does no one periodically audit their books? And if they’re short $3.5B, wouldn’t their checks start bouncing, or do they have a huge rainy day fund?

  12. “‘We’re seeing more volume of distressed properties. That’s evidence that there’s increased distress in the market right now,’ said Foch. ‘A lot of it is just evidence of failed speculative activity,’ Foch said, referring to investors and would-be flippers, who got caught out by the changing market and rising rates.

    I love the smell of burning speculators in the morning. It smells like…victory!

  13. “The housing market has gone quiet, triggering the biggest sales slump in nearly 40 years.

    It’s dead, Jim.

  14. At a time when the stock market and the housing market were booming, the Fed chose to continue flooding the market with liquidity. It did so by buying $120 billion a month in US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.”

    These gold collar criminals deserve to be keel-hauled for what they’ve done to the productive economy and the middle & working classes in this country.

  15. Federal Reserve Loans Climb to $354 Billion as Banks Scramble for Liquidity, Highest Since 2008

    JOHN CARNEY
    23 Mar 2023

    The Federal Reserve’s loan book continued to grow this week as banks took advantage of the central bank’s emergency lending facilities for the second consecutive week, according to data released Thursday.

    The Fed’s loans climbed to $354.2 billion as of Wednesday, March 23rd. That’s an increase from the $318.2 billion of loans the Fed had out the prior Wednesday.

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/03/23/federal-reserve-loans-climb-to-350-billion-as-banks-scramble-for-liquidity/

  16. “How many of you are being stolen from right now?”

    “We have government-enabled theft”

    COVID is the greatest FRAUD of my lifetime.

  17. A reader sent these in:

    When it comes to Bonds (or anything contractual really), this is my legal summary:

    https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx/status/1638796507913527298

    Sure CRE is a big problem. But take Office REITs for exemple, they are already pricing in around 35% – 40% decline in underlying asset valuations

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1638933659393589251

    And who sits atop the biggest pile of absolutely worthless garbage?

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1638948315470635008

    Anecdotal: all around me I see people driving 75k cars that are worth 50k, they live in a house with two such cars, a house they just bought for 450k that’s in reality about 240k, and yet somehow they can still afford an 80k vacation trailer and a 30k boat? …all financed.

    https://twitter.com/CobraVv99/status/1639023925668593667

    I realized that there was a deficiency of economic understanding the moment people were calling swap lines money printing. I don’t think they make a drug strong enough to numb the pain of my mind being assaulted by that line of thinking

    https://twitter.com/sunnycorax/status/1639018821125120001

    People are actually telling me they are bullish solely because they believe it’s qe…I am not even going to try to explain it anymore.

    https://twitter.com/primary3down/status/1639016985072910336

    “About 200 workers at Pedricktown, NJ, and hundreds of others at Fort Worth, Texas; Chino, Calif.; Davenport, Fla.; and Bethlehem, Pa., were let go due to a reduction or elimination in evening and weekend shifts.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1638936416070807554

    “The old Central Banker in me looks to M1, M2, M3, M4…we are seeing monetary aggregates contracting. That is an environment where we will see lending standards tightened overnight…”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1638920549387882500

    What’s up with car repossessions? Let me tell you what we’re seeing…
    Budget-constrained consumers have had no choice but to purchase “older” cars over the past couple of years. Record-high car prices combined with the overall lack of inventory have led everyday shoppers to make questionable purchases.

    But we’re now seeing something interesting develop: A big uptick of shoppers that are coming in with recent repossessions on their credit history. When we ask them “what happened?”, they tell us that they purchased an “old” car and it broke down, leaving them with a repair bill they couldn’t afford. And guess what happens when people can’t afford to repair their car? You guessed it… They stop making their car payments. Well, here’s the bottom line: The average age of a used car on the road keeps increasing due to the inventory shortage.

    And the majority of America cannot afford a $25K used car, let alone a $48K new car. The result? The supply of inexpensive used cars continues to dwindle. We have 25% fewer used cars on the road vs 2019 — 2.2M vs 2.9M. This is leaving many budget-constrained consumers with no choice but to purchase older cars that are much more susceptible to mechanical breakdowns. And — unsurprisingly — it’s now becoming clear that selling older cars results in a higher rate of repossessions. Bookmark this tweet. We’re going to see a lot more of this over the next 12 months.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1639030229191540739

    15 years of ZIRP and QE exacerbated economic instability
    Do we manufacture or produce anything anymore? Our economy now IS access cheap money
    How are we supposed to unwind this? Powell appears to be trying but the deck is stacked against him

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1639059465621184512

    Your feelings only matter for a while, eventually math matters more.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1639045889607229442

    *ACCENTURE PLANS TO LAY OFF 19,000 EMPLOYEES

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1639001575262949378

    If you look closely, you can see the inflation in the UK over time:

    https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1638977613824684060

    Is the consumer really that strong? 👇 (WSJ)

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1638809431948541952

    Applications for mortgages to purchase homes are down 44% year-over year

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1638901158726057986

    Elizabeth Warren went from fighting for little people
    To a Wall Street shill begging for welfare for the rich

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1638965197892382721

    Make no mistake, the cruel perpetual debt/inflation/interest based banking system is no more than a form of modern slavery. Debt is a weapon and interest the ammunition. It’s a silent economic war waged against you, wealth transfer system to banks, and societal manipulation tool.

    https://twitter.com/BP_Rising/status/1638960258042195973

    Lol…. Zandi finally calling for home price declines over the next two years! Welcome to the club @Markzandi

    https://twitter.com/ssun5555/status/1638959494326542337

    Large Commercial Real Estate owners are feeling the pressure of rising rates and tighter lending. For Starwood and others facing investor redemptions as well makes it challenging. Every day crying on CNBC won’t help bring occupancy up to empty buildings

    https://twitter.com/benitoz/status/1638955703460302848

    If we had millions of Americans designing modular nuclear reactors instead of fart apps, we wouldn’t need QE and lower interest rates.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1638955115481821184

    “Cancellation rates normalizing…” = builders getting used to buyers walking away instead of fleecing them…

    https://twitter.com/MikeDUnderhill/status/1638882623689994240

    Logan is a housing permabull who has has benefited from 40 years of Fed manipulation of rates and you can also find him on the circle diagram right before the green arrow.

    https://twitter.com/sunny051488/status/1638744952938303489

    The problem with US economy is that it will unravel all at once. Going into q3, the resolution of the debt ceiling will come with fiscal tightening, re-build of the TGA, excess savings would have run-off and unemployment will move quickly above 4%

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1638924682991747078

    FDIC is struggling selling the loan portfolios of the failed banks–Signature, SVB, etc–because when marked-to-market they trade at a deep discount.

    https://twitter.com/BenMillerise/status/1638892405419024394

    #Markets continue to price in #FederalReserve rate cuts, contradicting the Fed’s projections and yesterday’s explicit statements by Chair Powell. If anything, the extent of the cuts has deepened post the Chair’s press conference. Sets up an interesting reconciliation process ahead

    https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1638927373633753088

    1. If we had millions of Americans designing modular nuclear reactors instead of fart apps, we wouldn’t need QE and lower interest rates.

      We could just license France’s breeder reactors. France uses them to product almost 70% of their power.

        1. I think the idea is that if there wasn’t easy money to be made developing stupid apps then perhaps some of those coders might have majored in EE or ME instead of CS.

          It would be irrelevant though. Our energy policy does not include nuclear generated. Only windmills and solar panels are acceptable.

        2. amen to that! you need to be licensed by the state to be an engineer. most of the coders would never even pass the EIT exam, let alone the PE.

        3. Because there was so little demand for engineers while coders were making $300K to develop stupid apps that destroyed society

      2. Wont work in CA
        A French national railroad company left California’s high-speed rail project to pursue other work in North Africa — and has already completed a project in Morocco.
        SNCF, the French national railroad, was one of the original operators to come to California in the early 2000s to help develop the state’s “bullet train” that would run from San Francisco to Los Angeles. The rail company, however, opted to leave for the war-torn, yet “less politically dysfunctional,” North African country.

        1. I know there will never be breeder reactors in the USA.

          As for California, they should expect year round rolling blackouts. To see the Golden State’s looming future, just look to South Africa. Big Tech is already leaving the state. for example. HP and Oracle have already moved their HQ’s to Texas.

  18. – Some general comments, FWIW.

    – Price and mortgage interest rates are inversely proportional. Rates have more than doubled, even after huge bubble run up in price, but price is sticky on the upside, since sellers want last years price. Price has to fall. Buyers are priced out. Current price is unaffordable. Simple math. Smart buyers should wait, but some sellers can’t.
    – Price is set at the margin. Comps rule. Cuts both on the way up and on the way down.
    – Realtors will say whatever they want, independent of reality.
    – Five stages of grief still applies. Denial ain’t a river in Egypt.
    – Welcome to the sh*t-show of the global economy and the bursting of the Everything Bubble. Gooberments did this with the assistance of their financial agents the central banks. Centralized vs. distributed planning always fails, but too few opportunities to gain power and expand graft.
    – Pandemic eviction bans. Need to enforce rule of law. U.S. Constitution. 5th Amendment, Takings Clause: “Nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.” Also applies to Gooberment-caused inflation. Sue there a$$. If officials not abiding, then hold them to their oath of office to uphold the U.S. Constitution. If that doesn’t work, then time to water the Tree of Liberty with the blood of tyrants using our 2A rights and sheer numbers. Enough.
    – End of rant.

  19. This is a Language Police article.

    HuffPaint — It’s Time For ‘Woke’ To Be Put To Sleep (3/24/2023):

    “Woke” has been weaponized against us. Conservative Republican politicians use it to stress how they’re not interested in any sense of liberation for marginalized people.

    Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) coined the phrase “woketopians” to complain about all these people gunning for his “rights.” Florida (again) Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s probably the country’s single most dangerous human heading into the 2024 presidential election, famously said in a speech last November that “Florida is where woke goes to die.”

    If I had to declare an official time of death for “woke,” it would be March 14, when conservative firebrand Bethany Mandel goose-stepped right into delightful internet fodder as a guest on The Hill’s “Rising” web series.

    When discussing her new book, “Stolen Youth,” which apparently suggests that “woke ideology” will send children into a heroin-fueled homicidal tailspin, Mandel used the word “woke” enough that host Briahna Joy Gray asked her to define it for the purpose of the discussion.

    What happened next was about as gratifying a moment as an anti-right-winger could ask for: Not only did Mandel stumble through not answering the question, she announced in the moment that it would go viral. Indeed, the “Karening Moment” has been viewed millions of times, and Twitter hasn’t been kind.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/woke-ron-desantis-word-stop_n_641cd2e3e4b0cfde25ca31a2

    OH NO! She got ratio’d by the Blue Checkmarks!

    Can’t use the word “woke” if you can’t define it? Woke is Democrat Party institutionalized anti-white racism. Woke is Democrat Party pedophilia and state-enforced homosexuality. Woke is attempted theft from taxpayers via reparations. And here, a good summary from President Donald Trump (0m33s):

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/hVqoWfI1r4ZS/

  20. Well comrades if this doesn’t get stopped we’re going to need a new National Anthem. One of those slow, sad, droning anthems with soldiers marching real slow with stiff straight legs in the background.

    Proud Boys Sedition Trial Suspended AGAIN After Feds Admit Defense Witness Was An FBI Informant

    By Chris Menahan | Information Liberation Friday, March 24, 2023

    The Proud Boys sedition trial was suspended for a second time on Wednesday after the feds admitted in court that a witness intimately involved in the Proud Boys defense team was secretly an FBI informant.

    From The Epoch Times, “Did FBI Informant Spy on Proud Boys Defendants and Their Jan. 6 Trial Attorneys?”:

    Defense attorneys in the Proud Boys seditious-conspiracy trial in Washington D.C. learned late March 22 that one of their own defense witnesses who was about to testify had worked as an FBI informant for at least 22 months.

    They asked for an emergency hearing before U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly and filed a motion to compel the U.S. Department of Justice to disclose if the witness has been spying on the defense team.

    Judge Kelly suspended the trial until March 24 and converted March 23 from a day of testimony into a motions hearing.

    Defense Witness was Prosecution Informant

    After the close of testimony on March 22, prosecutors disclosed that a witness on the defense list who was due in court on March 23 had worked as an FBI informant from April 2021 through to at least January 2023.

    “During this period of time, the CHS [informant] has been in contact via telephone, text messaging, and other electronic means, with one or more of the counsel for the defense and at least one defendant,” the motion said.

    “The CHS also participated in prayer meetings with members of one or more of the defendants’ families. The CHS also engaged in discussions with one of the defendant’s family members about replacing one of the defense counsel.”

    Judge Kelly should have thrown the case out rather than suspend it.

    https://www.newswars.com/proud-boys-sedition-trial-suspended-again-after-feds-admit-defense-witness-was-an-fbi-informant/

  22. “In its February report, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) shared that sales of existing homes (meaning ones that no longer have that new-home smell)…”

    …and instead have dog pee urine smell saturating the carpet.

    1. “…and instead have dog pee urine smell saturating the carpet.”

      Wife and I looked at a foreclosure years ago, and the hallway to the bedrooms was black and moldy from pet urine. I’m sure the floor was ruined too. The place was beat-up, everything ignored.

    1. What’s the difference between Prince Andrew’s hush money paid to Virginia Guiffre and that received by Stormy Daniels other than amount?

  24. Property taxes?

    “Parents of four children have filed a federal lawsuit against Florida’s two medical boards over recently-enacted rules that ban gender-affirming care for minors.

    The Southern Legal Counsel, Human Rights Campaign Foundation and others filed the lawsuit Thursday in Tallahassee federal court. It seeks to block the state from implementing the ban that was approved by the Florida Board of Medicine and the Board of Osteopathic Medicine late last year.

    The rules, known as care standards for doctors, took effect last week and prohibit trans minors from receiving gender-affirming care, including hormone therapy or surgery.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/23/florida-gender-affirming-care-ban-lawsuit-00088644

    “Gender-affirming” is a concept that has no place in medicine, science, or nature.

    And the alleged “parents” suing are groomer mutilator demons who need to burn in hell.

    Weimar problems will require Weimar solutions…

    1. “Gender-affirming”

      Calling things the opposite of what they are is a sign of mental illness and evil intent.

      1. The “national divorce” is already happening in the state legislatures.

        Colorado is pushing laws similar to California declaring itself a mutilation “amnesty” state, which is essentially legalized kidnapping.

        “Consenting adults in the privacy of their bedroom” is now “give us your children, or else.”

        1. is now “give us your children, or else.

          This was predicted and those who warned of this slippery slope were shouted down and called conspiracy nut cases. We are now in freefall and there is no bottom in sight.

          Isn’t it interesting how the “refugee caravans” that stream to the US border are 99% young men? Might it be that people in central and south America are learning about what we are doing to children in this country and are choosing to not bring their kids here, not even for the free cheese?

  25. Wealthy people are beginning to wonder how safe the banking system is. Many speculate that the wealthy will reallocate their assets to real estate and gold because they just don’t trust the banks. This is usually what happens when questions surround the safety of banks.

    1. you should go buy 10 houses before all the wealthy start getting into bidding wars. you’ll be like totally rich dude!!

      1. you should go buy

        That sounds like the last 10 years. I don’t expect the next ten years to look the same. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.

    2. The only thing more amazing than that parody is that it is still up on youtube after two days!!

  29. “But association president David McCarthy said those numbers need to be viewed in perspective: as COVID-driven sales when people clamored for more space to wait out the pandemic. ‘We had such a significant volume of sales in 2021 that it appears like the market is soft when it’s not,’ McCarthy said.”

    Let’s see:
    February 2016- 2701 sales
    February 2017- 2519 sales
    February 2018- 2393 sales
    February 2019- 2669 sales
    February 2020- 2493 sales
    February 2021- 2748 sales
    February 2022- 2332 sales
    February 2023- 1899 sales

    Lowest February in the data they provide, and I’ll wager it’s the lowest February since, oh, 2011.

    Relitters®- convincing people that “Today is a good time to buy” since 1875.

  30. Got Tranq?

    DEA Warns ‘Zombie Drug’ Hitting US Streets, Set To Worsen Overdose Crisis

    by Zero Hedge
    March 24th 2023, 12:22 pm

    President Biden’s efforts to end a nationwide drug crisis, which he promised to end during the 2020 election campaign, may face further challenges as the Drug Enforcement Administration issued an alert on Monday regarding a new concoction of fentanyl and a veterinary tranquilizer hitting American cities and towns.

    “Xylazine is making the deadliest drug threat our country has ever faced, fentanyl, even deadlier,” DEA Administrator Anne Milgram wrote in an alert on Monday.

    The alert continued, “DEA has seized xylazine and fentanyl mixtures in 48 of 50 states. The DEA Laboratory System is reporting that in 2022 approximately 23% of fentanyl powder and 7% of fentanyl pills seized by the DEA contained xylazine.”

    When combined, xylazine, a veterinary tranquilizer, also commonly known as “tranq,” and fentanyl make drug overdoses even deadlier because the opioid overdose antidote, naloxone, also known as Narcan, won’t reverse its effects.

    The DEA’s new alert of xylazine-laced fentanyl (some have called it the “zombie drug”) should concern all Americans because it renders Narcan useless.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dea-warns-zombie-drug-hitting-us-streets-set-worsen-overdose-crisis

    HARD FACTOR
    @HardFactorNews

    Hot new drug “Tranq” is causing people’s skin to fall off

    https://twitter.com/HardFactorNews/status/1630734597959843842?s=20

    1. I’m seeing ads on websites reminding me that it’s time for a COVID booster because immunity doesn’t last forever.

      Funny though, how a tetanus shot has always been good for 10 years.

      1. it’s time

        What does not exist to begin with cannot last forever.

        Are they still hawking the Bipolar version, and are the Feds still paying for it? As I recall, 85% refused the last round of jabs.

        It will become more interesting in the future when some unelected psychopath in the grift trough at the WHO tells us all to hide under our beds and take his drugs.

  37. Are you worried that hedge funds which lost big bux gambling on bonds might be systemically risky?

    1. The Financial Times
      Hedge funds
      Central bank induced bond tumult stings big name hedge funds
      Managers like Crispin Odey and Chris Rokos endure steep losses as bets on debt market backfire
      Crispin Odey and Chris Rokos
      Laurence Fletcher and Tommy Stubbington in London and Kate Duguid in New York November 5 2021

      The era of unlimited central bank largesse is drawing to a close, injecting intense volatility in to government bonds and inflicting heavy damage on a clutch of high-profile hedge funds.

      Superstars of the industry have been left nursing billions of dollars in losses after an abrupt rethink on how and when central banks will reverse the huge wave of support they provided to markets when the pandemic hit last year.

      Initially, central banks said that process would be very slow, despite soaring inflation, and hedge funds believed them. But markets began to fret last month that the US Federal Reserve and other central banks would have to raise interest rates more quickly, wrongfooting high-profile traders including Chris Rokos and Crispin Odey.

      An intense sell-off in short-term government debt upended some of these funds’ biggest bets, causing them to exacerbate the market ructions by rapidly exiting their positions. Rubbing salt in the wounds, some of those bets later proved to have been right all along. The repeated blows suggest that markets will remain tough to negotiate as central bankers pick their way out of crisis mode.

      “There’s been a bit of blood on the streets,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at bond specialist BlueBay Asset Management.

      The macro hedge fund managers of Mayfair and Wall Street have long bemoaned the trillions of dollars of central bank purchases washing through markets, which they said muffled the big shifts from which they seek to profit. Judging by a string of recent losses, the industry should have been careful what it wished for.

      London-based Rokos Capital, which manages $12.5bn in assets, lost around 18 per cent last month, said a person who had seen the numbers. That leaves the fund, headed by billionaire bond market specialist and former Brevan Howard co-founder Rokos, down more than 26 per cent this year. Losses at New York-based Alphadyne Asset Management, which focuses on macro and fixed income, have left it down 17 per cent this year. And Crispin Odey, one of Europe’s best-known managers, has lost nearly 50 percentage points of performance in his Odey European fund since early October, although it remains up around 59 per cent this year.

      To blame is a bond market upheaval that began in late September when the Bank of England first hinted it could lift interest rates before the end of the year in a bid to keep a lid on surging inflation. The move surprised market participants who had long assumed such a step was off the table until mid-2022. The spark from the gilt market quickly ignited an inferno across global bond markets, helped by hawkish moves from the Australian and Canadian central banks.
      Line chart of US two-year Treasury yield (%) showing Short-term bond retreat sends yields racing higher

      As Wednesday’s announcement of the beginning of a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s bond purchases approached, traders began to bet that the world’s most influential central bank would be forced to follow suit with earlier than expected rate rises.

      In fact, the Fed did announce a gradual reduction in its asset purchase programme, but sounded a cautious note on eventual rate rises. The following day, the BoE delivered a much bigger shock by declining to raise rates at all, firing up gilts prices and dragging other countries’ government bond yields down too.

      The shake-up in bond markets proved painful for investors typically seen as market savants. “The hawkish shift from most central banks — perceived or explicit — in response to recent high inflation prints and expectations has caught many market participants off guard,” said Tom Prickett, co-head of rates trading for Europe at JPMorgan.
      …

    2. The Financial Times
      Rokos Capital Management LLP
      SEC raised concerns over hedge fund Rokos after losing bond bets
      US regulator contacted UK authorities after large collateral calls
      Chris Rokos co-founded hedge fund Brevan Howard before striking out on his own
      Laura Noonan, Ortenca Aliaj, Laurence Fletcher and Stefania Palma 9 hours ago

      The US Securities and Exchange Commission has raised concerns over Rokos Capital Management after the hedge fund was forced to hand over large amounts of cash to its banks as collateral when an outsized bet on US government bonds backfired earlier this month.

      SEC chair Gary Gensler brought up the hedge fund during calls with UK regulators this week after it faced larger margin calls than peers, according to people familiar with the conversations.

      The US regulator does not supervise London-based Rokos but is on high alert for tensions in financial markets after a spate of recent blow-ups in the banking sector. UK regulators agreed to keep an eye on the hedge fund, one of the people said.

      The conversation points to regulatory fears that the rapid unwinding of concentrated hedge fund bets could exacerbate strains in the US government bond market, which forms the bedrock for asset prices around the world.

      Recommended
      News in-depthUS Treasury bonds
      US Treasuries’ rollercoaster ride strains bond market functioning

      The episode stems back to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month and concerns around the broader health of the US regional banking system. After SVB collapsed, investors snapped up Treasuries, as they bet that the US Federal Reserve would slow the pace of interest rate raises to shore up financial stability.

      When bond prices climbed, many hedge funds were wrongfooted in the rally, but industry participants say Rokos was one of the biggest short-term losers. The fund, which manages about $15.5bn, was down by 12.5 per cent for the month, the Financial Times reported on March 17, when multiple counterparties requested that it put up more assets to meet margin calls, said two people familiar with the matter.
      …

      1. “…when multiple counterparties requested that it put up more assets to meet margin calls, said two people familiar with the matter.”

        Wasn’t it margin calls on loans to fund high risk investments that CR8Red which kicked off the Great Deoression?

        2. The great margin call: The role of leverage in the 1929 Wall Street crash
          Karol Jan Borowiecki, Michał Dzieliński, Alexander Tepper
          First published: 19 October 2022
          https://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.13213

          Sections

          Abstract
          I PREVIOUS LITERATURE
          II THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF FORCED LIQUIDATIONS DURING THE CRASH
          III THE MinMaSS MODEL
          IV LEVERAGE IN THE STOCK MARKET IN 1929
          V STABILITY ANALYSIS
          VI CONCLUSIONS
          REFERENCES
          OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS

          Abstract

          The reasons for the 1929 Wall Street crash and why it occurred at the particular time that it did are still debated among economic historians. We contribute to this debate by building on a new model, which provides a measure of the financial system’s potential for financial crises. The evidence suggests that a tightening of margin requirements in the first nine months of 1929 combined with price declines in September and early October caused enough investors to become constrained that the market was tipped into instability, triggering the sudden crash of October and November.
          …
          https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ehr.13213

        3. The Financial Times
          Credit Suisse Group AG
          Asia investors ‘gobsmacked’ by $17bn Credit Suisse bond wipeout
          Risky AT1 debt was popular in the region and a sell-off has sparked margin calls
          Credit Suisse’s offices in Hong Kong
          The wipeout of Credit Suisse’s AT1s stunned investors because it forced bigger losses on bondholders than shareholders, upending the traditional hierarchy of creditors
          Mercedes Ruehl in Singapore, Leo Lewis in Tokyo and Kaye Wiggins in Hong Kong March 21 2023

          The wipeout of $17bn of Credit Suisse bonds has sparked panic among rich Asian investors who had loaded up on the risky bank debt.

          Under the terms of the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse, orchestrated by the Swiss government on Sunday, Credit Suisse’s additional tier 1 bonds were written down to zero while shareholders received $3.25bn.

          The surprise decision stung some retail investors in Asia who are exposed to AT1s, a class of debt designed to take losses when institutions run into trouble but generally believed to rank ahead of equity on the balance sheet.

          “We haven’t slept since Sunday,” said one Singapore-based private banker. “People are completely gobsmacked.”

          In other parts of the world, the bonds are typically owned by institutional investors. Pimco, Invesco and Legg Mason are among the top holders of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds, according to Bloomberg data. Asia’s AT1 market is estimated to represent about $46bn out of the global total of $260bn.

          The wipeout of Credit Suisse’s AT1s stunned investors because it forced bigger losses on some bondholders than shareholders, upending the traditional hierarchy of creditors.

          Other regulators including the European Central Bank have since stressed that they would not follow the Swiss method in resolving a failing bank in their jurisdiction. Some investors are threatening legal action.

          Asian private bank clients led selling on Monday, where some panicked sellers pushed down AT1s issued by banks in Asia by between 2 and 10 points, depending on the country. The market for the bonds recovered on Tuesday but Asia AT1s were still lower than last week.

          The selling included wealthy clients who owned the AT1s with leverage and were receiving margin calls, said two private bankers.
          …

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