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You’re Bleeding Money, Before It Was Free Money

A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “Industry experts generally agree that L.A.’s luxury market has slowed down this year, and the data agree. ‘I’ll do anything to sell,’ said the owner of one home in Brentwood who wished to remain anonymous to not affect a potential sale. ‘This market is a mess.’ The trend has led to a glut of mansions on the market. ‘The market reminds me of 2008. You couldn’t even give a house away, so you had to throw in all these incentives in order to sell it,’ said Anthony Marguleas of Amalfi Estates.”

The Tribune in California. “San Luis Obispo County’s housing market is looking to rebound from a slow start to the year. In the North County, the median home price in Paso Robles fell 13.7% year over year, dropping to $643,000. Cambria’s housing market saw declines in price and number of sales: the seven homes sold in February went for a median of $800,000, a 31.2% drop year over year. Los Osos saw a less precipitous drop in prices, falling 10.7% year over year to $777,500. Morro Bay saw lower prices, too, with the $808,500 median price representing a 19% drop from last year.”

“The three biggest South County markets — Arroyo Grande, Pismo Beach and Grover Beach — all saw median home sale price decreases in February, Redfin said, with Grover Beach’s median sale price dropping 27.1% to $705,000 from the previous year. Pismo Beach, the most expensive housing market in the county, saw its median sale price plummet 17.7% compared to February 2022, settling at $1.1 million, Redfin’s analysis found.”

From Fox Business. “Laura Johnson, a 59-year-old technology project manager, put her Seattle house on the market in September for $800,000. In October, after dropping the price to $745,000 and getting no offers, she took the house off the market. ‘In Seattle, sales just completely dropped off,’ she said. Ms. Johnson relisted her home in February for $750,000. She cut the price to $740,000 last week.”

“The median existing single-family home-sale price in San Francisco was $1.465 million in February, down from a peak of $2.06 million in March 2022, according to the California Association of Realtors. The median home-sale price in Idaho’s Ada County, which includes Boise, was $492,115 in February, down 10.5% from a year earlier, according to Boise Regional Realtors. In all of the 12 major housing markets west of Texas, plus Austin, home prices fell in January on an annual basis, according to Black Knight.”

Bisnow Dallas in Texas. “Owners and developers of office product in Dallas are battening down the hatches. Some owners may have no choice but to relinquish control of their buildings, said Adam Jackson, chief investment officer at Stream Realty Partners. This has already played out at some Dallas properties, including The Towers at Park Central, PIMCO’s 846K SF, Class-B office complex at the High Five Interchange. ‘The cost of debt is going to force the hand of a lot of these older office projects and cause them to be physically restructured,’ Jackson said. ‘We anticipate a pretty strong amount of foreclosures over the coming years, similar to what happened in the ’80s.'”

The Commercial Observer. “The central bank’s decision to increase interest rates by a quarter point on March 22 — the seventh straight rate increase in the last 12 months — came at a particularly precarious moment for the economy: Not only have two U.S. regional banks recently failed, but $936 billion in CRE and multifamily debt is due to mature in 2023 and 2024, with more than half of the debt provided by commercial banks. Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics and a former chief economist for several regional banks, described the present environment, especially the sudden rise in interest rates, as resembling the savings-and-loan (S&L) financial crisis in the late 1980s With the abrupt jump in interest rates, S&Ls had to pay up in the market on their long-term loans, as large portions of their asset bases were fixed-rate mortgages, explained Naroff.”

“‘You can see how the world changed on them,’ he said. ‘A lot of them were the walking dead until they were dead. Once you had a spike in interest rates, there was no way they could cover it.’ If this sounds familiar, it’s because a nearly identical situation happened in March at Silicon Valley Bank. ‘It’s similar to the S&L crisis in structure, in that they went out on the curve, they bought longer-term assets and they were still paying short-term money,’ Naroff said.”

From Reuters. “Many people hope the crisis of confidence infecting global banking this month can be repelled almost as quickly as it appeared. But that may simply be wishful thinking, certainly if history is anything to go by. Bank crises tend not to be resolved in weeks or months – they smolder for years. The U.S. ‘Savings and Loans’ (S&L) crisis of the 1980s and 1990s is a case in point. Coupled with deregulation and lax lending standards, the crisis reached boiling point in the mid-1980s and around a third of the country’s S&L firms – over 1,000 in total – would go bust. Most striking was duration of the problems – they stretched from the early 1980s right through the mid-1990s.”

“Another familiar echo is banks being unaware just how deep and far their risk-taking extends. As former Riksbank governor Stefan Ingves wrote caustically in the G30 paper: ‘Many pundits are concerned that banks’ behavior may be influenced by moral hazard, but ‘not having a clue’ seems to be as important in many cases.'”

Urban Milwaukee in Wisconsin. “The crashing occupancy rate, and proposed sale, of one of Milwaukee’s most valuable buildings could end up costing Milwaukee homeowners a couple of dollars per year. The100 East office tower, which has been in foreclosure since 2021, would be sold to a developer partnership for less than half of its assessed value. The buyers plan to redevelop the 35-story building as an apartment complex.”

Commercial Appeal Memphis in Tennessee. “The developer of The Lake District, a major mixed-use development in Lakeland, on Friday filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and announced plans to reorganize the same day the development was slated to be auctioned off.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Toronto contractor Troy Barnes has had a busy few years. Things are different now: fewer requests for quotes and more people scaling their projects back to save money. He has also noticed more tradespeople looking for work, mostly because they aren’t fully booked for the first time in ages. ‘I noted a slowdown starting in last fall, into a complete dead zone in December and January,’ Mr. Barnes said. Things may be picking up again, but it’s too soon to tell. Contractors say they’re seeing more cancellations and smaller jobs, with many homeowners stuck with partially completed renos, as more and more of their budgets are consumed each month by the cost of servicing their debts.”

“Realtor Nasma Ali is seeing it too. Ms. Ali, who works in Toronto, is often the first stop for clients who want contractor recommendations or who are debating whether to renovate or move. She says she first noticed things getting quiet in late summer last year. She has seen several half-built houses on the market recently, presumably because people started to build and ran out of money. She also knows of people who are partway through a renovation and feel locked in to finishing it even though it has gone way beyond their budget.”

“‘Those people can’t just stop. … You just have to push through it. You’re bleeding money, but at least you can move back,’ she said. ‘People are just too worried,’ Ms. Ali said, noting that HELOCs typically have variable interest rates, so people who borrow today can’t predict what their payments will look like in a few months. ‘Before, it was free money.'”

ABC News in Australia. “Two companies run by controversial Sydney property developer Jean Nassif have been placed into receivership. Buyers were blocked from moving into the 900-apartment Castle Hill complex across five towers in 2021, after the NSW Building Commissioner confirmed ‘extensive signs of cracking’ were discovered in the building’s basement. Mr Nassif and Toplace — the builder of Skyview — later had their building licences suspended after significant ‘structural issues’ were found in two of the towers by NSW Fair Trading inspectors.”

“Recently, Mr Nassif’s 27-year-old daughter, Ashlyn Nassif, was charged with fraud offences relating to the Skyview development. The ABC is not suggesting that Mr Nassif was involved in her alleged offences. In court documents, it is alleged that Ms Nassif made and submitted false or misleading sales contracts in order to access a $150 million loan for the construction of three buildings in the development. She was granted bail and is yet to enter a plea.”

OneRoof in New Zealand. “Auckland’s $1 million losses have spread from the city’s southern suburbs to its trendy inner-west. A 100-year-old bungalow was snapped up at a mortgagee auction this week for almost $1m less than what the house sold for just 18 months prior. The four-bedroom character home in Sandringham was purchased in October 2021 for $2.56m, above its CV of $2.25m, and resold at Ray White Remuera’s auctions on Wednesday for $1.611m. While several Auckland homes have sold for near-$1m losses this year, most have been in the city’s south, where the rush to pick up development sites in 2021 inflated prices and saw modest homes being snapped up for $2m or more. The Sandringham bungalow is the first high-profile casualty of development market turmoil in Auckland’s inner suburbs.”

“Sandringham was one of several suburbs targeted by developers for intensification during the recent property boom, largely because much of the housing stock there sits on large flat sites zoned for townhouses. Developers, some new to the game, bought sites at inflated prices hoping to turn a profit by either flicking the properties with consents attached or by developing the sites themselves. However, rising interest rates, increased building costs and falling prices have put the squeeze on developers, some of whom can no longer make the sums work and hold onto their properties.”

“Houses in Papatoetoe, marketed as having development potential, have sold for almost $1m less than what they were bought for at the peak of the market. Last month, a four-bedroom home on Saint George Street in Papatoetoe that was bought just over a year ago for $2.3m sold for $1.305m. The Saint George Street house, was listed at the start of February, with the agents making clear it was an ‘urgent sale’ and that the ‘vendor’s circumstances dictate that this beautiful family home is now on the market and make no mistake it WILL sell.'”

“A ‘change in circumstances’ also forced the owners of a 1940s bungalow on King Street in Papatoetoe to sell in March at auction for $1.465m – almost $1m less than the windfall they had been expecting.  Records show the owner of the three-bedroom home on King Street had sold the property at auction in November 2021 for $2.404m. However, the deal appears to have collapsed, leaving the original owner to sell it again, but this time getting a much lower price.”

“South Auckland Harcourts business owner Harsimran Singh told OneRoof last week that some sellers who had purchased development land in 2021 were now suffering and were reselling at major losses. Analysis by OneRoof’s data partner Valocity show individual properties that were bought in 2021 were now selling for anything from a few hundred thousand dollars to half a million dollars below what they got back then. ‘The developers have basically gone with capital growth off the table, [building] costs going up, interest rates going up, they’re not playing ball anymore,’ Valocity head of valuations James Wilson said.”

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This Post Has 96 Comments

  1. ‘You can see how the world changed on them,’ he said. ‘A lot of them were the walking dead until they were dead. Once you had a spike in interest rates, there was no way they could cover it.’ If this sounds familiar, it’s because a nearly identical situation happened in March at Silicon Valley Bank. ‘It’s similar to the S&L crisis in structure, in that they went out on the curve, they bought longer-term assets and they were still paying short-term money’

    I remember seeing 21% CD’s offered by S&L’s in the Dallas Morning News in the early/mid 80’s. I think it got higher before things crashed. But at the moment it didn’t set off alarms to me. Inflation was high, S&L’s had been booming. Commercial/fraud caused it all to fall apart. Luckily, we gotta housing bubble too now. Joy!

    1. “‘A lot of them were the walking dead until they were dead.”

      So many great titles for these HBB threads!

    2. In 1981, I actually bought the highest interest government bonds ever issued, two year FHLB notes at 18%

      1. Imagine if the Treasury had to pay 18% today. They would have no choice but to start minting some of those trillion dollar coins, which would do wonders for the CPI.

        1. “Imagine if the Treasury had to pay 18% today.”

          There wouldn’t be anything left for Israel.

      2. I actually bought

        That’s when I took out my first mortgage!

        It was only for $20K, but my timing was impeccable.

      3. I have a sketchy memory of some CDs of that era (14%?) could be rolled over perpetually. If true, imagine that 🤩

    3. It’s similar to the S&L crisis in structure, in that they went out on the curve, they bought longer-term assets and they were still paying short-term money

      We need a return to those days – specifically perp walks.

  2. ‘Recently, Mr Nassif’s 27-year-old daughter, Ashlyn Nassif, was charged with fraud offences relating to the Skyview development. The ABC is not suggesting that Mr Nassif was involved in her alleged offences. In court documents, it is alleged that Ms Nassif made and submitted false or misleading sales contracts in order to access a $150 million loan for the construction of three buildings in the development’

    That’s some sound lending right there.

    1. ‘It’s similar to the S&L crisis in structure, in that they went out on the curve, they bought longer-term assets and they were still paying short-term money’

      Perhaps they believed they were systemicslly risky and would qualify for bailouts when the tide went out?

  3. ‘was bought just over a year ago for $2.3m sold for $1.305m. The Saint George Street house, was listed at the start of February, with the agents making clear it was an ‘urgent sale’ and that the ‘vendor’s circumstances dictate that this beautiful family home is now on the market and make no mistake it WILL sell’

    End of story!

  4. ‘the median home price in Paso Robles fell 13.7% year over year, dropping to $643,000. Cambria’s housing market saw declines in price and number of sales: the seven homes sold in February went for a median of $800,000, a 31.2% drop year over year. Los Osos saw a less precipitous drop in prices, falling 10.7% year over year to $777,500. Morro Bay saw lower prices, too, with the $808,500 median price representing a 19% drop from last year’

    ‘The three biggest South County markets — Arroyo Grande, Pismo Beach and Grover Beach — all saw median home sale price decreases in February, Redfin said, with Grover Beach’s median sale price dropping 27.1% to $705,000 from the previous year. Pismo Beach, the most expensive housing market in the county, saw its median sale price plummet 17.7% compared to February 2022, settling at $1.1 million’

    Thornberg:

    via GIPHY

    1. “San Luis Obispo County’s housing market is looking to rebound from a slow start to the year”

      Those YOY numbers are about to get a lot worse. Which California area will be the first to get to 50% off?

    3. Morro Bay saw lower prices, too, with the $808,500 median price representing a 19% drop from last year

      Morro Bay is “bring your own income,” because you won’t find jack sh!t for jobs around there. I remember moldy old shacks and rocky beaches with rip tides when I vacationed there long ago.

      1. Morro Bay is “bring your own income,”

        Retired CA public safety workers buy there, also in Prescott AZ, income no problem Unions got them covered. Taxpayers totally screwed and they are leaving.

        1. “Retired CA public safety workers buy there…”

          Only if they sold a home in a large metro area, i.e., equity locust relocating. Nearby unincorporated Los Osos, has moldy 70s shacks selling for $650k plus these days!

  5. The Nashville school shooter was a TRANNY.

    And for some reason, Real Journalists don’t want to discuss that.

    Keep paying those property taxes, slaves, so that Marxist globalists can groom your children in the public schools.

    1. From the AP:
      “Police gave unclear information on the gender of the shooter. For hours, police identified the shooter as a 28-year-old woman and eventually identified the person as Audrey Elizabeth Hale. Then at a late afternoon press conference, the police chief said that Hale was transgender. After the news conference, police spokesperson Don Aaron declined to elaborate on how Hale currently identified.”

      By tomorrow the media will report that she was one of those “Trump supporting alt right women”.

      1. +1

        Here a screenshot from some Blue Checkmark named David Pakman:

        https://ibb.co/G3Jb4Xx

        His Wikipedia “early life” section is exactly what you’d expect, if that hasn’t been scrubbed already.

        “They’re not sending their best”

      2. On Sunday at Legoland’s Sea Life Aquarium, we saw a particular species of fish where the males were a beautiful purple/pink and the females were orange. No faking a transition there. Mother nature has her reasons.

          2. don’t become a thing

            I know. I was just making a muted reference to genetics studies in a former life.

          4. The comments are priceless.

            I wasn’t changing fish gender, only tricking the female into showing its genetic male color patterns (suppressed) for selective breeding.

            Another time, I ordered the ingredients for making black powder at the pharmacy. I had to explain what I was doing to the pharmacist in both cases.

          1. An elderly gentleman was taking a stroll in the park and thought he heard someone talking. He stopped to listen and heard it again, although he saw no-one. At his feet was a small frog, and that was where the sounds were coming from. He picked up the frog and held it in his palm. The frog said to him that it was actually a beautiful young woman, changed by a magic spell that could be undone with a kiss. In exchange for that priceless kiss, the frog promised to satisfy the gentleman’s every sensual fantasy.

            He slipped the frog into his jacket pocket and continued his walk. Eventually he stopped again and withdrew the frog, who asked him if he hadn’t understood her proposition. He said “Yes I did young lady, but at my age I’d prefer to have a talking frog.”

    2. Globalist scum media.

      LGBTMedia Loses Confidence in Preferred Pronouns After Transgender Shooter Attacks Christian School (3/28/2023):

      “The media appears to have developed a sudden confusion surrounding preferred pronouns after a woman who identified as a man attacked a Christian school in Nashville, killing three children and three adults.”

      OH NO! Not the pronouns!

      “Given Hale’s transgender identity, many have speculated that the massacre was motivated by Tennessee’s recent ban on all forms of “gender-affirming” transgender care for minors as well as drag queen shows, although others have suggested the motive was Hale’s resentment at having been made to attend the school.

      Whatever the motive, the media’s reaction was to lose confidence in its assertion that transgender pronouns should be respected.”

      https://summit.news/2023/03/28/media-loses-confidence-in-preferred-pronouns-after-transgender-shooter-attacks-christian-school/

      Keep paying those property taxes.

      1. “many have speculated that”

        Police found a manifesto. If there’s indication that the shooting was motivated by trans oppression, it will be reported VERY quickly.

        2. YouTube cut the Timcast live feed one hour into last night’s show, because they were discussing this topic.

          1. Interesting. I usually only watch the first hour of Timcast IRL and click to something else at 9. Last night I clicked off when Ian was asking “what cocktail of drugs caused the person to do this,” which was just before 9. So I missed the cutoff. Kimberly G didn’t help things either.

  6. ‘the crisis reached boiling point in the mid-1980s and around a third of the country’s S&L firms – over 1,000 in total – would go bust. Most striking was duration of the problems – they stretched from the early 1980s right through the mid-1990s’

    Texas was in a recession/depression for pretty much the whole time. Go ahead UHS, tell people it’s rocket go now. Other states were in the same boat.

    1. Go ahead UHS, tell people it’s rocket go now.

      All of these shills are banking on more Jerome Powell money-printing rocket fuel.

  7. How come Mr Market is so glum theae daze. Doesn’t he realize that spring is in the air?

    1. Dang…they told me rates would stay low forever. And now they are still going up. What is going on!???

      1. LIVE UPDATES
        Updated Tue, Mar 28 2023 8:45 AM EDT

        S&P 500 futures decline as higher rates pressure market: Live updates
        Tanaya Macheel
        Samantha Subin
        Traders on the floor of the NYSE, Oct. 21, 2022.
        Source: NYSE

        U.S. equity futures were lower Tuesday after the S&P 500 posted its third positive session in a row and banking sector concerns continued to ease.

        Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average
        lost 43 points, or 0.1%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures each shed 0.2%.

        Stock futures were under pressure as bond yields rose, with the rate on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note rising back above 4%. Worries about the crisis among U.S. regional banks have been assuaged thanks in part to policymakers’ efforts to alleviate the challenges, and investors’ fear that higher rates could push the economy into a recession came back into focus.
        …

        https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/27/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

        1. Higher rates AND recession fears AND banking concerns are all pressuring Mr Market … a toxic backdrop to worry skittish traders. Good night and good liluck!

      2. Bank CD rates up while same 6 -12 month treasuries interest rates way down. Looked this AM . Flight to safety. 😱

  8. A reader sent these in:

    Tabulation of ongoing real estate defaults.

    https://twitter.com/BenMillerise/status/1640386610083557378

    “Consulting”

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1640379928146481154

    AirBnB went from little old ladies renting out their unique cottage in the forest to broke Chad buying 20 houses in residential neighborhoods so he doesn’t have to work at McDonalds anymore.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1640362217450397696

    SVB & First Citizens – markets are relieved about the acquisition. Good. Not enough attention is being paid towards the real nasty of the deal. It’s the 23% discount on the $72 billion of loans that First Citizens is taking. Now think about all the CRE bank loans out there…

    https://twitter.com/PPGMacro/status/1640351691772944385

    “The ten largest deposit accounts at SVB held $13.3 billion, in the aggregate”. Did they send the US tax payer a thank-you note, I wonder? At least FDIC commissioner & future Yellen-speech fees are secured!

    https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1640455371465584640

    The average monthly loan payment of a Dodge has increased a staggering 47% since 2020 — more than any other vehicle brand.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1640445262219845645

    Private equity businesses have never been so levered even adjusting for the cash balance. The recent banking issues have raised important questions about the mismarking of assets. If Treasury holdings had major underlying losses, one must wonder about the level of discrepancy yet to be reported among privately valued businesses, particularly in the technology sector. Private equity companies are excessively indebted and carry a significant risk of asset price writedowns.

    https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1639679866168569857

    Canada is such an attractive place for money laundering that there’s even a special name to describe the activity there: “snow washing.”

    https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1639630741545037824

    Doing crazy sh$t for years. #receipts

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1639253692435124225

    Seriously shady sh$t is exposed when liquidity dries up. This won’t be the last to come to light in the private lending space

    https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/1639251699662729218

    Shame the FED didn’t do their job and spot an obvious issue. Thought they had oversight and regulated the banks. Barr pointing the finger – maybe he should look in mirror??

    https://twitter.com/judahrhodie/status/1640462570124607488

    1 year ago $SVIB was worth $40 billion. Just sold for $500 million and with FDIC taking a bath and FED bag holding the HTM at par. That’s 90% down. U Fink that bullish?? 😳

    https://twitter.com/judahrhodie/status/1640347385627832330

    Because few people service a mortgage for all 30 years (they get divorced, refinance, move or die), mortgage rates are compared to the 10-Year Treasury Note. While Treasury yields have fallen, mortgage rates are stuck in the mid-6% area. Huge spread vs. 10-year = 304bps.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1640370507898933248

    Wokeahauntus

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1640570484239761413

    To be honest, telling young people it’s their $1000 phone that’s the problem and not their $2000 rent payment because the Fed inflated asset prices for 40 years is just basically spitting in their face at this point. We’re not f*cking stupid

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1640538491284238336

    They extended the statute of limitations to 10 years on PPP fraud. The govt is also getting very good at prosecuting these cases. A lot of people who got money fraudulently should not be sleeping well at night.

    https://twitter.com/Scipio888/status/1640526123309096960

    How it started How it’s going

    https://twitter.com/buccocapital/status/1640523856770203653

    Keep waiting, bro.

    https://twitter.com/Woshingo/status/1640510199210426369

    Apple $AAPL COO sold 187,000 shares worth approximately $30 million last week 👀

    https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1640426397356179471

    “The consequences of inflation are malinvestment, waste, a wanton redistribution of wealth and income, the growth of speculation and gambling, immorality and corruption…”

    https://twitter.com/BP_Rising/status/1640453729345236994

    West Coast housing prices taking a beating: “The cities most closely associated with tech have the fastest falling home prices. San Jose, Calif., and San Francisco home prices were down more than 10% from a year earlier in January, and Seattle prices fell 7.5%”

    https://twitter.com/buccocapital/status/1640455194319417344

    It’s not QE. It does not go into the economy; it just prevents collapse of a bank – which would be deflationary. Banks in these situations are struggling for survival, they’re not creating new loans, they’re just trying to meet their reserve requirements to stay alive.

    https://twitter.com/CT_Osprey/status/1640453129949921282

    Keeping markets confused is job 1 now. More passive buying to buoy the headlines, taking pressure off from any efforts to back away from tightening policy. We lost a couple of badly managed banks that should have been dead years ago, so what? The real pain hasn’t started yet.

    https://twitter.com/Stimpyz1/status/1640359031238971393

    If the GFC was caused by speculators buying too many houses, what does this chart suggest?

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1640442038998155265

    New American 🇺🇸 Dream

    https://twitter.com/DisruptorStocks/status/1640369947535724551

    BREAKING NEWS: THE WORLD BANK IS WARNING OF A LOST DECADE IN GLOBAL GROWTH

    https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1640410316738576397

      1. As a teenager, just before WWII, my dad was paid $1 in silver (0.77 oz) per day for farm work. Things hadn’t changed much in a couple thousand years.

  9. Schwab’s $7 Trillion Empire Showing Cracks
    Bloomberg Television
    Mar 27, 2023
    Schwab’s $7 trillion empire is showing cracks, facing pressure from bond losses and rising cash yields. Executives, though, say the business is misunderstood and has enough liquidity.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQjvL4UwWX8

    2:30.

  10. Accountants are among the professionals whose careers are most exposed to the capabilities of generative artificial intelligence, according to a new study. The researchers found that at least half of accounting tasks could be completed much faster with the technology.

    The jobs that will be least affected by the technology include short-order cooks, motorcycle mechanics and oil-and-gas roustabouts.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-jobs-most-exposed-to-chatgpt-e7ceebf0

    1. “The researchers found that at least half of accounting tasks could be completed much faster with the technology.”

      Also, if mistakes are made, they can blame the computer.

    1. DOW 32,455.18 0.07%
      S&P 500 3,970.72 -0.17%
      NASDAQ 11,719.64 -0.42%

      Fear & Greed Index
      Disney begins laying off 7,000 employees, CEO Bob Iger announces
      By Jon Passantino, CNN
      Updated 5:07 PM EDT, Mon March 27, 2023
      LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 18: Robert Iger attends the Stella McCartney “Get Back” Capsule Collection and documentary release of Peter Jackson’s “Get Back” at The Jim Henson Company on November 18, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Rich Fury/Getty Images)
      Here are some of the problems Bob Iger has to fix at Disney

      New York CNN —

      Disney CEO Bob Iger on Monday said his company will begin laying off staff starting this week, the first of three rounds of expected cuts following his announcement in February that the company would axe 7,000 jobs.

      The cuts to Disney’s global workforce are part of a multibillion-dollar cost-cutting initiative aimed at streamlining the company’s operations in a period of media industry turmoil.

      In a memo to staff obtained by CNN, Iger said the layoffs would come in three waves. The first round will begin this week, and managers will soon start to notify affected employees. A second, larger round of layoffs will take place in April, Iger said, with several thousand staffers let go. A third round of layoffs will then occur “before the beginning of the summer” to reach the company’s planned goal of eliminating 7,000 jobs.

      “The difficult reality of many colleagues and friends leaving Disney is not something we take lightly,” Iger said in the memo. “In tough moments, we must always do what is required to ensure Disney can continue delivering exceptional entertainment to audiences and guests around the world – now, and long into the future.”
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/27/media/disney-layoffs/index.html

      1. Those complaining about returning to the office will soon get to see what life is like without a check coming in.

    3. Business
      Microsoft Seattle-area layoffs top 2,700 with tech giant’s latest cuts
      March 27, 2023 at 6:10 pm
      The Microsoft campus in Redmond, seen Jan. 18. Microsoft has laid off thousands of Seattle-area workers in recent months.
      (Kevin Clark / The Seattle Times)
      The Microsoft campus in Redmond on Jan. 18.
      (Kevin Clark / The Seattle Times)
      By Paul Roberts
      Seattle Times business reporter

      Microsoft has laid off 559 workers from its Bellevue and Redmond operations Monday, bringing the total of Seattle-area cuts to 2,743, or more than a quarter of the 10,000 cuts announced earlier this year.

      The layoffs were announced Monday by the Washington State Employment Security Department.

      The cuts reportedly targeted Microsoft’s security operations, according to several media accounts.
      …
      https://www.seattletimes.com/business/microsoft-seattle-area-layoffs-top-2700-with-tech-giants-latest-cuts/

  12. The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Those people can’t just stop. … You just have to push through it. You’re bleeding money, but at least you can move back,’ she said. ‘People are just too worried,’ Ms. Ali said, noting that HELOCs typically have variable interest rates, so people who borrow today can’t predict what their payments will look like in a few months. ‘Before, it was free money.’”

    – “free money” – The basis of a thriving and sound economy. Like trading houses back and forth without actually producing anything. I don’t know who’s the bigger idiot: central banks and gooberments or the shack traders. There be consequences.

    A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “Industry experts generally agree that L.A.’s luxury market has slowed down this year, and the data agree. ‘I’ll do anything to sell,’ said the owner of one home in Brentwood who wished to remain anonymous to not affect a potential sale. ‘This market is a mess.’ The trend has led to a glut of mansions on the market. ‘The market reminds me of 2008. You couldn’t even give a house away, so you had to throw in all these incentives in order to sell it,’ said Anthony Marguleas of Amalfi Estates.”

    – ‘This market is a mess.’ – Is anyone really surprised? Boom & bust economy. Everyone likes the free money boom. The bust, not so much, even though the bust is the inevitable outcome of the boom. No one learned anything from Housing Bubble 1.0. Now we have The Everything Bubble. Gooder and harder.

    2. A report from the Los Angeles Times in California. “Industry experts generally agree that L.A.’s luxury market has slowed down this year, and the data agree. ‘I’ll do anything to sell,’ said the owner of one home in Brentwood who wished to remain anonymous to not affect a potential sale.

      Anyone with half a brain knows that the time to get out of LA or California in general is NOW.

        1. I won’t even set foot in Clownifornia, for all I know they will insist that a 3 day visit is proof of residency, so pay up.

          1. so pay up

            Which you can’t, so the compromise will be indentured service, maybe for generations.

          2. “…indentured service…”

            Like both Russia and Ukraine where the security services order a pizza delivery to a safehouse, and when the delivery boy arrives they arrest him, put him in uniform and pack him off to the front lines.

      2. “get out of LA or California in general is NOW.”

        Where you gonna go when Loathsom takes over Amerika in less than 2 yrs?

      3. “the time to get out of LA or California in general is NOW”

        And the time to get out of Colorado is when?

        2. My land in Southern Colorado was once part of the Republic of Texas. And after the war, it will be again.

          F* Denver.

          1. We never accepted that:

            ap·pro·pri·a·tion
            noun
            noun: appropriation; plural noun: appropriations

            1.
            the action of taking something for one’s own use, typically without the owner’s permission.
            “the appropriation of parish funds”
            the artistic practice or technique of reworking images from well-known paintings, photographs, etc., in one’s own work.
            “the hallmark of postmodernism has turned out to be appropriation”
            2.
            a sum of money or total of assets devoted to a special purpose.
            “success in obtaining appropriations for projects”

      4. Anyone with half a brain knows that the time to get out of LA or California in general is NOW.

        That time expired last year. Some of us natives will just ride it out for one reason or another.

    1. From the story these planters are a “trial”, most likely to see if the British sheeple would submit the way they did during the pandemic (remember when it was a crime to go have a picnic in a pasture?). If this succeeds they will be coming next for the cars.

        1. The Financial Times
          Investors and economists are weighing the impact of the banking crisis on growth and the likelihood and severity of a recession
          Nicholas Megaw in New York and Martha Muir in London 9 minutes ago

          US equities slipped on Tuesday as rising bond yields and a calmer banking sector led mega cap technology stocks to give up some recent gains.

          The S&P 500 dipped 0.2 per cent, its first decline in three days, with tech giants such as Alphabet and Apple the biggest drags on the index. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.5 per cent.
          …

        2. Bank of England on heightened alert for further banking turmoil
          3 hours ago

          The Bank of England is on “heightened” alert for further turmoil in the banking sector, its governor has said.

          However, Andrew Bailey told MPs the recent problems facing lenders had not caused stress in the UK banking system.

          Officials have tried to calm investors since Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed, sparking concerns about the stability of other lenders.

          In Europe, worries over the strength of Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse led to a rushed takeover by rival UBS.

          Nerves among investors have sparked sharp falls in banking shares around the world.

          Mr Bailey told MPs on the Treasury Committee that the Bank of England would “go on being vigilant”.

          He said we were in a period of “very heightened, frankly, tension and alertness”.

          The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was the biggest US banking failure since the 2008 financial crisis, and left depositors struggling to get their money out.
          …
          https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65099136

  15. The Financial Times
    US home prices fall for seventh straight month as mortgage costs bite
    Alexandra White in New York
    US housing
    Prices in 20 cities fell 0.4 per cent in January from December
    © Bloomberg

    US home prices fell for the seventh consecutive month in January as high mortgage rates continue to weaken housing demand.

    Prices in 20 cities fell 0.4 per cent in January from December, just missing analyst expectations for a 0.5 per cent decline. The index reported a 2.5 per cent annual increase, slowing from 4.6 per cent in December.
    …

    1. San Diego Union Tribune
      Business
      San Diego has 3rd biggest decline in home prices in key 20-city housing report
      San Diego continues to lose home price gains in the S&P Case-Shiller Indices. Homes near Morena Boulevard in San Diego.
      (Hayne Palmour IV/For The San Diego Union-Tribune)
      San Diego home prices down 1.4 percent annually in the latest S&P Case-Shiller Indices released Tuesday.
      By Phillip Molnar
      March 28, 2023 10:54 AM PT

      A closely watched housing report released Tuesday showed San Diego had erased annual price gains.

      San Diego metropolitan area saw its annual price drop 1.4 percent in January, said the S&P Case-Shiller Indices. That is a substantial difference from the 30 percent rise in March, and the first time America’s Finest City had posted a negative number since June 2012.

      In the 20 cities covered in the index, metros in the South and Southeast continued to show price growth while West Coast cities appeared to be hit hardest. In addition to San Diego, there were three other cities in the index where price gains had gone negative: Portland, down 0.5 percent; Seattle, down 5.1 percent; and San Francisco, down 7.6 percent.

      Despite rising mortgage rates, prices are still up annually in many markets. Miami was up the most at 13.8 percent in a year. It was followed by Tampa, up 10.5 percent, and Atlanta, up 8.4 percent.
      …

      1. “Despite rising mortgage rates, prices are still up annually in many markets.”

        For how many more months will the relitters be able to say that without lying?

  19. GOP Lawmakers Scare Off Gang of ATF Agents Sent to Raid Popular Gun Store on Same Day As Nashville School Shooting

    16 ATF agents “intimidated” gun store with surprise raid, claim Georgia members of Congress.

    by Jamie White
    March 28th 2023, 1:33 pm

    Upon news the ATF was inspecting the popular gun store, Republican members of Congress, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), arrived to question the ATF agents.

    Georgia Republican Reps. Barry Loudermilk, Mike Collins and Rich McCormick were also present, and they pointed out how the ATF agents came from multiple states.

    MTG reminded them about Republicans’ oversight authority, saying it was “very odd” for the popular gun store “to be treated this way,” prompting the ATF agents to leave.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/gop-lawmakers-scare-off-gang-of-atf-agents-sent-to-raid-popular-gun-store-on-same-day-as-nashville-school-shooting/

    1. Finance ·markets
      A famous market watcher who called the subprime mortgage crisis is warning that stocks are about to crash: ‘It’s the highest probability since COVID’
      BY Will Daniel
      March 28, 2023 at 2:31 PM CDT
      Is a stock crash coming?
      Spencer Platt—Getty Images

      In 2005, years before the subprime mortgage crisis kicked off the Great Recession and led millions of Americans to lose their homes, Larry McDonald was a vice president at the infamous now-defunct global financial services firm Lehman Brothers. As a young trader he, along with many of his peers, warned that something was wrong in the real estate market that year. It “was living on borrowed time,” he would explain years later in a 2009 New York Times article, and Lehman Brothers “was headed directly for the biggest subprime iceberg ever seen.”

      But McDonald’s bosses ignored his warnings, and the 158-year-old institution that was Lehman eventually went under in 2008 after the housing bubble cracked. The S&P 500 would go on to lose roughly 50% of its value in the 17-month bear market that ended in March 2009.

      Now, McDonald, the editor and founder of the widely read investing newsletter The Bear Traps Report, is warning that another stock market crash is on the way. He says the “Lehman systemic risk indicators” that he developed after the subprime mortgage crisis—which include things like the corporate default rate, stock market short-interest ratios, and investor sentiment surveys—are all flashing warning signs.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/famous-market-watcher-called-subprime-193154288.html

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