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It Was Clear That Negative News About The Housing Market Had Taken Over From People’s Emotional Decision To Buy

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Home prices continue to go down in the Boise area. The Intermountain Multiple Listing Service shows the median price of a newly constructed single-family home in Ada County dropped in March to $507,500, a decrease of more than $20,000 from February and more than $100,000 from March 2022. The sales price of existing homes has been dropping as well, though at a somewhat less dramatic rate. The median cost of an existing Ada County home in March was $475,000, down 14% from the $555,000 of a year ago.”

“In Canyon County, the median price of an existing home was $380,000 and the price of a newly built home was $409,000. That compares to $420,500 and $505,562 a year ago in March, respectively, meaning new houses in the Nampa and Caldwell area have fallen nearly $100,000 in price. ‘Buyers still have negotiation power,’ said Debbi Myers, president of Boise Regional Realtors. ‘Inventory growth and longer days on market grant buyers options and time, an opportunity they have not had in recent years.'”

“In March, median home prices in the city of Austin dropped just over 15% year over year to $529,495. Median home prices in the Central Austin region also dipped about 10% year over year from $795,000 in March 2022 to $700,000 last month. ABoR’s report shows monthly housing inventory has continued to trend upward in Austin, with 2.8 months on inventory last month compared to only half a month of inventory in March 2022. Housing inventory in the Central Austin region reached 3.6 months last month, a 500% increase since last year. Austin’s active listings surged 307.9% last month to 2,166 listings.”

“There were 2,756 single-family and 1,525 condo sales in Massachusetts in March, reflecting drops of 23.4% and 22%, respectively. It was the fewest number of home sales in the state since 2011, according to Cassidy Norton, media relations director at The Warren Group. Looking at The Warren Group’s town-by-town breakdown, sale prices for single-family homes in Plymouth dropped 6.8% year over year to a median of $515,000. And sales were down 22.4%. The median sales price for a single-family home in this Middlesex County community was $502,500 in March, a 15.7% year-over-year drop based on an equal number of sales. Sales numbers plunged the most across the water in Nantucket County (down 42.9%), which also experienced the biggest drop in the median sales price: $2,265,000, down 30.9% (based on eight sales).”

“Data-sharing agreements with tech companies and undercover ‘sting operations’ have cut the number of illegal vacation rentals operating on Kaua‘i to the lowest rate in a decade, officials report. The remaining illegal TVRs are mopped up by a planning department task force, which book ‘undercover reservations’ in ‘sting operations,’ and collect documentation to be used as evidence in issuing violation notices and fines, said County Planning Department Director Ka‘aina Hull. Illegal TVRs can be subject to harsh fines of up to $10,000 a day if they are discovered. One property owner faced a $130,000 penalty in 2019, according to The Garden Island reporting.”

“Pagosa County stopped their moratorium on new vacation rentals, which has been in place since last September. I interviewed four of the main rental management companies yesterday so that I could be better informed as to the latest trends. First of all, short-term rentals are hurting. Right now, there is a glut on the market, meaning rents are way down and occupancy as well. Now for the latest real estate news. Total sales are down 53% from a year ago. Keep in mind the market was at its peak a year ago. Home sales are down 46% with inventory up 21%. Condo sales are down 75% with inventory up 50%. Land sales are down down 55% with inventory up 39%. My guess is that we’ve seen about a 10% price correction since the peak a year ago.”

“Oakland city leaders late Tuesday night voted to end the city’s eviction moratorium on July 15. Landlords in Oakland had expressed their opposition to the proposal, instead calling for an immediate end to the moratorium. ‘I can’t sleep at night because I know I have to pay this bill tomorrow and that bill the next day and I don’t have enough money to pay, and I have to work day and night, three jobs to get by,’ said Lynn Truong, Oakland property owner.”

“Toronto luxury sales have taken a big hit, dropping sharply in the first quarter, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. Sales of homes over $4 million (including condos, attached and single-family) were down 65 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same time last year, with 44 properties sold across Toronto. And home sales over $1 million saw a 53 per cent decline year over year, the report said. During the market correction — which has seen the average Toronto home price drop by more than 15 per cent from the peak of $1.33 million in February 2022 to $1.1 million in March 2023 — buyers have become more savvy, educating themselves on what a reasonably priced home is in the city. If the home is priced correctly it could enter a bidding war, but if a seller isn’t realistic about the value of the home it will sit on the market for weeks and even months.”

“With house prices down over 8% in the first quarter of this year there are real signs that the market is being shaken up. So what does this mean if you are planning to buy for the first time in Amsterdam or even sell and move to a new place in the Dutch capital? As a company, Expat Mortgages talks to some 100 potential buyers a week and, says Richardo Cruz Fortes. ‘It was clear that negative news about the housing market had taken over from people’s emotional decision to buy. Some people became more reluctant to commit or put their hunt for a new home on the back burner, but we have some clients who realised that the downturn gave them more options because fewer people were going to viewings,’ he says. ‘At the same time, estate agents had more time to talk to them about the ins and outs of a particular property and in some cases they were even able to talk down the price.’”

“In a recent article entitled ‘Is there a Huge Demand for Condominiums in Cambodia?,’ CBRE Cambodia had suggested that the capital’s condo supply closed 2022 at around 45,000 units, and projected that figure to rise to 65,000 by end-2023. CBRE Cambodia valuation and advisory manager Chin Daluch explained that advances made on the aforementioned seven projects – which were either completed or put on the market – do not guarantee a material pick-up in condo prices or transactions. That, she said, would require at least another year. She put the relative inactivity in the Cambodian condo market down to three main reasons: global economic uncertainty; a supply glut; and increased caution amid bank loan interest rate increases.”

“Another Victorian building company has gone bust, weeks after the collapse of one of Australia’s largest home builders, Porter Davis, and construction firm Lloyd Group. Award-winning builder Mahercorp announced it went into voluntary administration on Friday, affecting more than 700 homes, as the industry continues to struggle amid the cost of living crisis.”

“One of the most surprising victims of the recent US banking crisis is a Swedish pension fund responsible for managing the retirement funds for a quarter of the country’s population. For years, Alecta’s 1.2 trillion-kronor ($116 billion) portfolio included shares of Signature Bank, First Republic Bank and SVB Financial Group, the parent of Silicon Valley Bank, alongside those of large Swedish companies.”

“But Alecta’s nearly $2 billion loss in those US holdings, equivalent to roughly 2% of the fund’s total assets, looked to many like a serious misstep. The scandal has already triggered the departure of the chief executive officer, sparked an investigation by regulators, and is likely to force the fund to scale back its assets in the US, where its holdings include Microsoft and Google parent company Alphabet. On Thursday, the pension fund’s executives apologized for the situation. ‘The investments in US banks were a failure,’ said acting Chief Executive Officer Katarina Thorslund. ‘We shouldn’t have ended up in that place.'”

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This Post Has 47 Comments

  1. ‘the median price of a newly constructed single-family home in Ada County dropped in March to $507,500, a decrease of more than $20,000 from February and more than $100,000 from March 2022. The sales price of existing homes has been dropping as well, though at a somewhat less dramatic rate. The median cost of an existing Ada County home in March was $475,000, down 14% from the $555,000 of a year ago’

    ‘In Canyon County, the median price of an existing home was $380,000 and the price of a newly built home was $409,000. That compares to $420,500 and $505,562 a year ago in March, respectively, meaning new houses in the Nampa and Caldwell area have fallen nearly $100,000 in price’

    As with every article above, it’s still a sellers market!

    1. It warms my heart reading about the ex-California non-gender rainbow cohort in Boise losing their equity like tears in rain.

      1. I wonder what will they do once unemployed and foreclosed? Pack it in and head back to their blue state of origin?

    2. I’m seeing the closing of the gap between new vs. existing in my hood as well. I guess the homebuilders savvy better than SFH greed heads!

  2. ‘At the same time, estate agents had more time to talk to them about the ins and outs of a particular property and in some cases they were even able to talk down the price’

    That’s the spirit UHS!

  3. ‘sale prices for single-family homes in Plymouth dropped 6.8% year over year to a median of $515,000. And sales were down 22.4%. The median sales price for a single-family home in this Middlesex County community was $502,500 in March, a 15.7% year-over-year drop based on an equal number of sales. Sales numbers plunged the most across the water in Nantucket County (down 42.9%), which also experienced the biggest drop in the median sales price: $2,265,000, down 30.9% (based on eight sales)’

    I don’t know how many of you watched the MA video I posted earlier this week, but some of these sh$tholes are down yuuge, 60% and the like. Yes, they are small samples. Could be less or worser.

  4. ‘Buyers still have negotiation power,’ said Debbi Myers, president of Boise Regional Realtors.”

    Hurry buyers, that negotiation power is only going to last for another 4 or 5 years!

      1. Mergers and Acquisitions
        Published April 21, 2023 3:00pm EDT
        Private equity crackup looming amid higher interest rates and escalating losses
        Losses mount in REITs owned by Blackstone, the Carlyle Group, and Apollo.
        By Charlie Gasparino FOXBusiness
        SlateStone Wealth chief market strategist Kenny Polcari joined ‘Varney & Co.’ to discuss the markets as investors weigh slowdown fears. video
        Looming rate hikes causing ‘angst’ in the markets: Kenny Polcari

        Significant cracks in the $12 trillion private equity business are emerging with big firms like Blackstone Group, Apollo Global management, Carlyle Group and other big players failing to meet fundraising goals, begging investors for money and suffering losses on some major funds, Fox Business has learned.
        …
        https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/private-equity-crackup-looming-amid-higher-interest-rates-escalating-losses

      1. “We can put light where there’s darkness, and hope where there’s despondency in this country. And part of it is working together as a nation to encourage folks to own their own home.” ——Dubya, Oct. 15, 2002

  6. But..but…

    Acting like a hotel without paying hotel taxes or abiding by hotel health and safety regulations is a CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT!!!!!

    “The remaining illegal TVRs are mopped up by a planning department task force, which book ‘undercover reservations’ in ‘sting operations,’ and collect documentation to be used as evidence in issuing violation notices and fines,”

  7. “One of the most surprising victims of the recent US banking crisis is a Swedish pension fund responsible for managing the retirement funds for a quarter of the country’s population.

    NP. Just bring ABBA out of retirement, and they can make up the shortfall with a new parade of hits.

    1. a Swedish pension fund

      Weren’t these guys famous victims of the toxic US mortgage securities in the 2006 crack up?

  8. Total sales are down 53% from a year ago. Keep in mind the market was at its peak a year ago. Home sales are down 46% with inventory up 21%. Condo sales are down 75% with inventory up 50%. Land sales are down down 55% with inventory up 39%.

    I was always better at science than maff – is that a lot?

  9. “Buyer got cold feet~ back on market! Don’t miss this beautifully…..”

    Yes by all means the “buyer got cold feet” Nothing to do with the 39% rip-off increase over two years. Funny how when the buyer backed out they raised the listing price right back up there. I hope more people see crap like this.

    03/31/2023 Listed $880,000
    01/25/2023 Price Changed $869,999
    11/17/2022 Listed $915,000
    12/09/2020 Sold $659,000

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/14134-Glenayre-Cir_Parker_CO_80134_M26909-43247

    1. The $659k is a massive bubble price. The market was rolling over in 2014, then again in 2018. That looks like a $150k house.

  10. Even Redfin is admitting that many ‘investors’ are losing money – not including all the transaction costs, manpower and rennovations.


    Roughly one of every seven (13.5%) U.S. homes sold by an investor in March sold for less than the investor bought it for. That’s comparable with February’s 14.5% rate—the highest since 2016. It’s also nearly triple the share of a year earlier and compares with a record low of 2.8% in May.
    …
    Roughly one in five (20.8%) homes sold by flippers in March sold at a loss, higher than the 13.5% share for investors overall. For the purposes of this report, we define a flipper as an investor that bought a home and resold it within nine months.
    …
    In Phoenix, 30.7% of homes sold by investors in March sold at a loss—the highest share of the 40 metros Redfin analyzed and more than double the national rate. Next came Las Vegas (28%), Jacksonville, FL (20.9%), Sacramento, CA (20.2%) and Charlotte, NC (17.4%).

      1. With returns shrinking, investors are getting creative, Stein said.

        “Some investors are offering sellers a 60% down payment but hedging their bets by holding onto the rest until they flip the home and resell it,” Stein said. “Let’s say an investor bought your home for $700,000. They would give you $420,000 upfront and then write you another check once they cash out, but the risk is that oftentimes, they’re not guaranteeing that you’ll get the full remainder of your money. If their flip doesn’t go well, they might only give you $150,000 of the $280,000 they owe you.”

    2. As the article states, they have no idea how much $$$ the investors put into each home. They also don’t know about carrying costs, relitter fees, transfer taxes, etc etc. I’m sure 90+% of investors are losing money right now if you factor in all of the actual costs involved.

    1. Fear & Greed Index
      Bed Bath & Beyond stiffed thousands of workers on severance pay
      By Nathaniel Meyersohn, CNN
      Updated 8:47 AM EDT, Thu April 20, 2023
      Why Bed Bath & Beyond is in big trouble
      00:58 – Source: CNN Business
      New York CNN —

      In early February, Diane Zaccagna learned that the Bed Bath & Beyond store in New Jersey where she had been working for 18 and a half years was closing and she would be laid off.

      “We knew Bed Bath was in trouble, but we thought we would have at least a couple more years,” said Zaccagna, 50, who started out as a part-time employee and climbed her way to a merchandise supervisor.

      Zaccagna loved working for Bed Bath & Beyond and said the company treated her well. Even during the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, when the deadly virus was spreading and Bed Bath & Beyond temporarily closed stores to customers, she showed up to help ship out online delivery orders.

      Managers initially told Zaccagna and around 25 employees at the store that they would receive severance pay. Bed Bath & Beyond has been on bankruptcy watch and has been closing hundreds of stores since late 2022.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/20/business/bed-bath-beyond-severance-pay-workers/index.html

  12. U.S. Economy
    Home Prices in March Posted Biggest Annual Decline in 11 Years
    Sales fell in March for the 13th time in the previous 14 months
    By Nicole Friedman
    Updated April 20, 2023 2:46 pm ET

    Home sales fell across the U.S. in March, a sluggish start to the crucial spring selling season as higher mortgage rates squashed momentum from the previous month.

    U.S. existing-home sales decreased 2.4% in March from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. March sales fell 22% from a year earlier.
    …
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/home-sales-fell-in-march-as-mortgage-rates-weighed-on-market-db88aac7

    1. MARKET REPORTS
      U.S. Home Prices Fell 3% in March, the Largest Annual Drop in More Than a Decade
      New listings and home sales also dramatically declined year over year, making for a “lackluster” spring season for home buying
      By Casey Farmer
      Originally Published On April 19, 2023
      Mansion Global

      The median home price in the U.S. fell 3.3% year over year in March to $400,528—the biggest annual drop seen since 2012, according to a report from Redfin on Wednesday.

      The number of new homes on the market also saw a steep yearly decline, dropping 23.3% in March to the “the lowest level on record aside from the start of the pandemic on a seasonally adjusted basis,” according to the report.

      Neither buyers nor sellers are making many moves with mortgage rates still high—the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was 6.54% in March, while a year ago it was 4.17%.

      Less listing inventory led to fewer home sales in March, dropping 22.3% annually, and actually kept the median home price from dropping even more, since a shortage of homes is fostering bidding wars in some markets in the U.S.
      …
      https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/u-s-home-prices-fell-3-in-march-the-largest-annual-drop-in-more-than-a-decade-2cf6759d

    2. “Home Prices in March Posted Biggest Annual Decline in 11 Years”

      The housing market’s slowdown is now starting to weigh on prices, which have fallen on an annual basis for two consecutive months for the first time in 11 years. The national median existing-home price decline of 0.9% in March from a year earlier to $375,700 was the biggest year-over-year price drop since January 2012, NAR said.

      Median prices, which aren’t seasonally adjusted, were down 9.2% from a record $413,800 in June. Home prices in the western half of the U.S. experienced some of the biggest gains for many years but are now falling the fastest.

      The U.S. housing market has slowed dramatically in the past year as rising mortgage rates, high home prices and persistently low inventory frustrated buyers.

      March’s home sales declines don’t bode well for the spring season, which is usually the most active time for home sales because families with children often want to move homes between school years. ***

      Hope ‘ya didn’t buy with an adjustable…

      1. “…rising mortgage rates, high home prices and persistently low inventory frustrated buyers…”

        And, of course, never mentioned in the MSM, every increasing holding costs such as property taxes, insurance, maintenance, HOA dues, etc.

    1. Landlords still can’t evict in NYC if the tenant applied for ERAP, but watch the government kick everyone out in about 10 days.

    1. Jeremy Grantham warns US house prices will drop, the S&P 500 could plunge 52%, and more banking problems may lie ahead
      Theron Mohamed
      Apr 21, 2023, 8:54 AM PDT
      Jeremy Grantham.
      REUTERS/Nicholas Roberts

      – Jeremy Grantham expects US house prices to slide over the next few years.

      – The GMO cofounder sees the S&P 500 plunging as low as 2,000 points, a 52% drop.

      – The elite investor warns the recent banking turmoil may strain other parts of the financial system.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/grantham-house-prices-bubble-crash-stock-market-outlook-banking-crisis-2023-4

      1. “American homes are very expensive relative to household incomes, and surging mortgage costs have eroded people’s homebuying power, the market historian and GMO cofounder told CityWire in a recent interview.”

        Indentured servitude, IMHO.

        “As people gradually realize their properties are worth far less than they thought, they’re likely to feel poorer and cut back on foreign trips, graduate schooling, and other big-ticket items, Grantham predicted. The decline in spending could temper economic growth, he noted.”

        Your wife’s legs will become closed, welded shut!

        1. “American homes are very expensive relative to household incomes,…”

          Nothing new there. It’s been this way for over two decades, and recently got worse.

          “…and surging mortgage costs have eroded people’s homebuying power,…”

          That’s what’s new, and why you can stick a fork in the Everything Bubble, as it isn’t just mortgage rates that spiked, but pretty much all interest rates.

          As noted in Chapter 1 of any introductory college finance textbook, higher interest rates drive down asset prices. Bubble, meet fork.

  15. Why The Beatles’ George Harrison Funded Monty Python’s “Life of Brian”
    John Cleese
    Apr 17, 2023 #georgeharrison #lifeofbrian #fawltytowers
    Some of my greatest successes were initially met with rejection, but I got by with a little help from my friends. Hear more in this clip with @camillacleese from our interview with Sadhna Bokhiria, CEO of KIRIA Research.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrka-BeIeL0

    2:49.

  16. One thing that I don’t see taken into consideration is the flippers who purchased and second mortgaged each home to add to their empire. The whole house of cards was built on the concept of never-ending appreciation. If one goes underwater their empires will fall like dominoes.

        1. No fool. Beardy bailed a while ago.

          Brandon Turner’s Final Episode: Life Beyond Real Estate
          BiggerPockets | Dec 30, 2021 #551
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mujR0kzWPQ

          Brandon Turner has been an essential part of the real estate investing community for almost a decade. Some could say that he is THE person most thought of when you say “real estate investing”. But, in a both sad and happy way, Brandon is taking time off from the BiggerPockets Podcast to spend more time with his family, build his business, and surf significantly more.

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