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It Was A Gamble, And The Odds Are Turning Against Them

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Spring in the Seattle area looks a bit different from usual this year. The median single-family home in King County sold for $875,000 in April, down 12% from a year ago. The median Snohomish County home sold for $767,500, down 9%. The median Pierce County home sold for $525,000, down 9.5%. The median Kitsap County home sold for $520,000, down 8%. Prices dropped sharply on the Eastside, where the $1.45 million median home price was down 16% from April 2022. Seattle’s $886,000 median was down 13%. Homes are also sitting longer in Everett, Tacoma and Bellevue.”

“‘It feels much like our economy: a little unpredictable,’ said Ballard Windermere agent Kayse Gundram. Gundram listed a $2.4 million, four-bedroom Craftsman less than a block away from Capitol Hill’s Volunteer Park in April that has been sitting for sale since, despite a $100,000 price drop. Several buyers visited the home multiple times, even checking to make sure their cars fit in the garage, but did not submit offers, baffling Gundram and other agents she knows, she said. ‘There’s kind of no rhyme or reason to what goes quickly and what sits on the market,’ Gundram said.”

“Spring is typically a hot time for the residential housing market in Philadelphia and around the country. But this year is far from typical. Compared to past seasons, the market is struggling — mightily — to blossom. ‘It’s about as weak as it gets,’ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. ‘It’s kind of consistent with the worst of sales during the peak of the pandemic when we were all shut in. Or go back to the financial crisis back in ‘08/’09. It’s those kinds of levels.'”

“Earlier this year, we wrote about the cooldown in Austin real estate following an extended period of meteoric growth. It appears that the new ice age in home buying has spread beyond Central Texas. In the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Statistical Area, though, the numbers are even more stark. Median home prices are down 11.2%, closed sales are down 18.7%, and homes are taking 122 days to close, an increase of 46 days year over year. Active listings are up a staggering 377.7%, and inventory is at 3 months, up from just .5 in 2022.”

“There’s one vague, under-the-radar fee that brokerages have more recently injected into the homebuying process. The fee goes by many names: an administrative fee, a transaction fee, or even a ‘regulatory compliance’ fee. When it pops up on a closing statement, the charges can range from a few hundred dollars to nearly $1,000. ‘It gets called so many different things,’ Amelia Robinette, a broker in northern Virginia, told me. ‘It should just be called a bullshit fee.’ The agent I spoke with in Las Vegas said it’d become almost standard in the industry. The size of the fees had only grown, the agent said, since buying activity plummeted from the heady days earlier in the pandemic. ‘Everybody has this idea of, ‘Oh, real-estate brokerages, they’re swimming in cash,’ the agent told me. ‘Well most of them aren’t, and a lot of them are going under, especially now that the market’s slowed.'”

“Detroit-based Rocket Companies experienced its second consecutive quarterly loss since going public. The corporate parent of Rocket Mortgage reported Thursday a $411 million net loss in the first quarter on $666 million in total revenue. Mortgage lenders nationwide have experienced a decline in business since early last year when mortgage rates started climbing, leading to fewer home purchases and less refinancing activity.”

“Plans to construct a 400-unit condo tower at 110 Fifth St. in San Francisco have been placed on ice, with owner and developer Hearst Corp. citing worsening market conditions and high construction costs. A Hearst spokesperson said the building ‘doesn’t pencil because of market conditions and construction costs.’ The spokesperson said Hearst is not planning any changes to the entitled project at this time.”

“Three in 10 Canadian homeowners are having a tough or difficult time paying their mortgages – a situation that jumps to more than five in 10 among those with variable-rate mortgages, according a poll. ‘It’s really the people who are least equipped to deal with fluctuations in the market who are poised to be the worst hit,’ said Angus Reid Institute president Shachi Kurl, adding that it is often younger Canadians facing these financial hurdles. ‘These buyers are perhaps most vulnerable. They’re looking at a variable mortgage because they were looking to reduce their monthly payment to the absolute minimum. It was a gamble, and the odds are turning against them.'”

“In some apparent good news for first-time buyers, one of the only items (along with sweet potatoes) whose price isn’t spiralling in the cost-of-living crisis is the one-bedroom flat. In fact, recent Zoopla research uncovered a real terms fall of 24 per cent since 2016 for central London flats. Buying agent Roarie Scarisbrick points to a buyers’ advantage in the one-bedroom flat market, in part thanks to landlords selling up, hit with hefty mortgage charges and the prospect of big pay-outs to upgrade their properties’ EPC ratings looming. That glut of ex-rental flats we can hope to see hitting the market do offer a great opportunity to add value, often having been left unmodernised for several years, or even decades.”

“Swedish builder Skanska reported a sharp fall in operating earnings for the first quarter on Thursday. The Nordic region’s largest builder, and one of the biggest in the United States, reported an operating profit of 394 million crowns ($39 million) in the quarter, down from 1.85 billion a year earlier. Swedish housing prices have fallen by double digits since the Riksbank’s tightening cycle began in earnest a year ago. While the decline has appeared to slow in the early months of this year, many economists predict further fall.”

“The real estate market has faced unprecedented problems with a large inventory and a sharp drop in liquidity since the middle of last year, said Dr Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association. Apartment prices in the city plummeted by 40-50% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2022, while sales declined by 30% year-on-year, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The market has seen a huge imbalance between supply and demand for years, with an oversupply in the high-end segment but a shortage of affordable housing products, according to Dinh.”

“One person came to the first open home of James Faber’s Palmerston North property, which convinced him to take a risk on a $1 reserve auction. A similar property nearby had sat on the market for months, partly because deals had fallen through, Faber said. ‘I just wanted it sold and wanted it sold fast,’ he said. ‘From the start I was saying I’m not nervous, but just in the last week it’s starting to get that way, to be honest with you, just due to the lack of interest.'”

“Faber is selling in a market where listings remain high, sales are 35% below their 10-year average, and prices continue to fall. Before listing, online valuations put Faber’s three-bedroom property at $580,000. ‘The market’s doing nothing but going downwards, so I’ve been expecting to go below market value, and hoping it would at least get in the region of $420,000 to $430,000 range,’ he said.”

“The advertisement states ‘vendor has to sell!,’ and Faber said that was because he had to pay his mother back $300,000 she loaned him for another subdivision he had under way. ‘I bought this other development project a year and a half ago, and expected to have the old house sold and at least one new build sold by then to pay mum back, but as you can expect everything has dragged on and dragged on. I absolutely regret buying this current project I’m working on because of the way the market’s gone, 100% wish I had never bought it.’ Faber worked for Property Brokers for over six years, and is an investor with six properties.”

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This Post Has 49 Comments

  1. ‘I just wanted it sold and wanted it sold fast,’ he said. ‘From the start I was saying I’m not nervous, but just in the last week it’s starting to get that way, to be honest with you, just due to the lack of interest’…’I absolutely regret buying this current project I’m working on because of the way the market’s gone, 100% wish I had never bought it’

    Now dammit Jim yer giving it away.

    2. So James has to sell his rental property that he’s has for seven years because he’s working on another project development that requires, “a release of capital.” Unfortunately, James will likely be forced to sell his next development for less than what he has put into it. James eagerly borrowed a banker’s umbrella, and he’s about to learn that it always rains in The Twilight Zone.

  2. Like Colorado and California, it looks like the whole state of Washington is sinking like a turd in a well.

    1. I suspect there’s a common denominator, but I just can’t put my finger on it.

    2. At least like here in California (SoCal), be careful what you vote for, you might actually get it.

      Local example:

      Per local neighborhood blog today:

      In my area [Socal, Newport] an elderly gentlemen was taking a walk on the sidewalk in a ‘safe and very expensive’ neighborhood, when an Audi drove up, a women jumped out, grabbed gentlemen and tried to physically remove his wedding ring. [action failed as ring was too tight].

      Thus far, no clues and no action by local authorities.

      I have lived in this area for 43 years and until recently, scenarios such as this were considered unthinkable.

      I post this example as general neighboorhood consensus is that criminals during the last few years have become increasing aggressive and embolden because they know consequences [if caught] are practically zero.

      1. “they know consequences [if caught] are practically zero”

        See also: Denver.

        The local crime stories I read on the Denver7 and KDVR websites keep getting worse and worse.

        Denver is, essentially, a zero trust society now.

        1. The local crime stories I read on the Denver7 and KDVR websites keep getting worse and worse.

          Yup. And none of the jokers running for mayor has a plan to curb crime.

          And why would they? I still recall when the the current mayor tweeted from the airport as he was heading out to visit family, that everyone should stay home because of the Covid lockdown. IIRC, he was busted by someone with a phone who snapped a picture of him at the airport. Were there any repercussions for him? Was he forced to resign? Nope.

  3. My property taxes have more than tripled for my next bill in 2024.

    There is less than 20,000 people living in the whole county. Not a whole lot going on there.

    I can’t imagine paying property taxes to any county in the metro Front Range, and I probably never will.

    2. My property taxes have more than tripled

      I’m not sure that’s accurate. Since you just bought the property maybe it’s more to the point that your taxes are more than the previous owner’s. It could be because you paid more than the assessed value previously was. Curious what you would learn if you talked to the assessor person.

  4. Prices dropped sharply on the Eastside, where the $1.45 million median home price was down 16% from April 2022.

    Is that a lot?

  5. ‘There’s kind of no rhyme or reason to what goes quickly and what sits on the market,’ Gundram said.”

    Three things:

    1. Realtors are liars
    2. Realtors are liars
    3. If you price shacks to sell, then they sell. If you don’t, they sit on the market into perpetuity.

    This is as good as it gets, greedheads. Sell now, or chase the market down.

  6. Median home prices are down 11.2%, closed sales are down 18.7%, and homes are taking 122 days to close, an increase of 46 days year over year. Active listings are up a staggering 377.7%, and inventory is at 3 months, up from just .5 in 2022.”

    It occurs to me that we could very well be looking at a bursting housing bubble. Perhaps this is a topic we could explore on the HBB.

  7. “Or go back to the financial crisis back in ‘08/’09. It’s those kinds of levels.”

    But it’s different this time, say the shills. Yep, it’s prolly worser.

  8. ‘These buyers are perhaps most vulnerable. They’re looking at a variable mortgage because they were looking to reduce their monthly payment to the absolute minimum. It was a gamble, and the odds are turning against them.’”

    The sooner these degenerate shack gamblers go broke, the better. Let them be a cautionary tale for the consequences of recklessness & greed.

  9. A reader sent these in:

    *EMERGENCY FED STATEMENT:
    In 2021 we stated that “Inflation is Transitory”.
    In 2023 we stated that the “Banking system is Resilient and Sound”.
    What we meant to say is that “Inflation is Resilient and Sound” and the “Banking System is Transitory”.
    Apologies for any confusion

    https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx/status/1654074891602210817

    Global Issuance of Mortgage-Backed Securities Falls to a 23-Year Low

    https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara/status/1654109358215639042

    The world as @DiMartinoBooth sees it:
    – Bank failures NOT systemic
    – Recession will get “very ugly”
    – No rate cuts coming anytime soon
    – The Fed won’t save regional banks
    – Powell will refuse to bail out private equity
    My latest interview👇

    https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status/1654305400424996865

    The 1-month Treasury bill yield spiked 106 bps today to 5.76%, the highest level we’ve seen with data going back to July 2001.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1654313940975861761

    Jay Powell: “The recovery of the U.S. economy is right on track”
    The track:

    https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1654136301212389376

    This dance you’re witnessing between hopes of peak rates, almost baby cries for a pause pacifier, and recession fears and chronic nightmares of pending collapse, are nothing new. It’s typical late cycle. Every time same clowns fight same windmills.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1654241666088181760

    AOC has asked Dianne Feinstein to resign. Feinstein, 89 years old, has some of the most unusual trades in Congress, over her thirty year career. In that time, her net worth sky rocketed to over $200 million.
    Let’s look at some of her unusual trades:

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1654174927124037645

    1. “Feinstein, 89 years old, has some of the most unusual trades in Congress, over her thirty year career.”

      Poverty, graft and corruption from these public servants.

  10. Does it seem like the US labor market has finally slowed down enough so that inflationary pressures have eased and the Fed can start to think about pivoting towards lower interest rates?

    1. The Financial Times
      US employment
      US economy adds 253,000 jobs in sign of labour market strength
      Unemployment rate dipped to 3.4% in April and average hourly earnings rose
      A steelworker in Dayton, Ohio
      Hourly wage growth in the US strengthened by 0.5% month on month in April
      Nicholas Megaw and Kate Duguid in New York an hour ago

      US jobs growth was stronger than expected in April, showing the resilience of the economy even as the Federal Reserve signalled it was “getting close” to pausing its cycle of interest rate rises.

      The US added 253,000 non-farm jobs last month, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, confounding expectations of a slowdown.

      The headline payrolls increase was partially offset by downward revisions to the previous two months’ data, but the unemployment rate and wage growth figures also pointed to continuing tightness in the labour market, raising doubts over whether the Fed will begin to cut interest rates as soon as investors had expected.
      …

  11. The regional banks are headed to the planets today.

    Is this “buy the dip”, or did someone behind the scenes mention bailouts, attracting whales?

  12. Apartment prices in the city plummeted by 40-50% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2022, while sales declined by 30% year-on-year, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

    Coming soon to a cratering RE market near you.

  14. Seattle-area banks avoid turmoil so far, but see real estate market chill
    May 4, 2023 at 6:31 pm
    Brent Beardall, CEO of WaFd, prepares for a meeting on March 30 in Seattle. (Ken Lambert / The Seattle Times)
    By Paul Roberts
    Seattle Times business reporter

    At a time when America’s smaller community and regional banks are facing questions about their financial health — most recently with First Republic Bank, PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp — Washington state may be a bit of an outlier.

    As of March, the state’s four publicly traded regional banks — WaFd Bank, HomeStreet Bank, Umpqua Bank and Banner Bank — avoided the panics that doomed Silicon Valley Bank two months ago, according to earnings reports for the first quarter of 2023 as well as interviews with top executives.

    But the reports, the first official look at how the banks have weathered the crisis, also had some red flags for the broader Seattle-area economy.

    Notably, three of the four banks saw less lending in key areas, including some categories of commercial real estate, partly due to higher interest rates, inflation and the broader national slowdown that hit Seattle and the rest of Washington last summer. Umpqua wasn’t able to provide comparable data, due to its recently completed merger with Columbia Bank, but did offer some analysis.

    “Projects aren’t penciling the way they used to,” said Brent Beardall, CEO at Seattle-based WaFd, where overall lending was down by half last quarter versus the final quarter of 2022. With higher interest rates and inflation, a lot of commercial customers “are saying, ‘Wait a second — do I really want to start a new project?’” he said.
    …
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/seattle-area-banks-avoid-turmoil-so-far-but-see-real-estate-market-chill/

  15. Finance & economics | Don’t unleash the zombies
    How much longer will America’s regional banks hold up?
    Despite the danger, policymakers must not intervene prematurely
    Mar 23rd 2023 | Washington, DC

    What kind of story is unfolding in the banking system? At first glance it would appear to be a tragic drama. In the past fortnight, four banks have met their end: two crypto lenders, the dominant bank in Silicon Valley and most recently a global systemically important bank. There have been 11th-hour interventions to protect customers, the creation of emergency-lending facilities and a marriage between two giant rival firms.

    But look again and perhaps it is a science-fiction tale. Thomas Philippon, a professor of finance at New York University (nyu), is experiencing the vertigo of time travel. “It really feels like we are back in the 1980s,” he said at a recent talk. In that decade, high inflation prompted extreme monetary tightening, which was meted out with enthusiasm by Paul Volcker, chairman of the Federal Reserve. This undermined the health of “savings and loans” banks (s&ls), consumer-savings institutions also known as “thrifts”, which mostly lent long-term fixed-rate mortgages. They faced a cap on the rate they could pay on deposits, which led to flight. And they held fixed-rate assets. When interest rates rose, these mortgages lost a considerable amount of value—essentially wiping out the thrift industry’s net worth.
    …
    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/23/how-much-longer-will-americas-regional-banks-hold-up

  17. “In some apparent good news for first-time buyers, one of the only items (along with sweet potatoes) whose price isn’t spiralling”

    Yams are $1.59/lb in my hood. That ain’t cheap for a potato!

    1. From looking around ummmmmm everywhere, it appears that the Jenny Craig model doesn’t work at all. And since Jenny Craig became big in the 80s(?) much more of FUSA has become large. Maybe Jenny Craig is the Jim Cramer of weight loss?

  19. francis, the link you posted requires a sign-in before viewing to “verify your age”.

    HA! I don’t even give my phone number to harbour china freight.
    or best buy. or PG&E. SMUD. comcast. etc

    no way am I setting up ANOTHER effing account to keep track.
    (maybe based in Utah following all their new online age laws?)

    anyway, I do enjoy your postings, francis, but I gotta give a hard “no thank you” to the link.

  20. Should virus bio-weapon research been allowed at all?
    Should AI technology be allowed in that it has the same potential to become a weapon of mass destruction like a bio-weapon?
    A AI data collector has no morals or ethics or human empathy or elimination of bias contained in the data, or what the highest objective of good for humans would be .
    Its like Klaus Schwab implied that in essence that who controls AI technology will control the World. If the bad guys control the technology, than humans become a slave to objectives of anti humanity overlords. .
    AI, drones and robots deployed to be masters over humans because the creators don’t like the human race..
    Humans are suppose to be masters over the tools they invent or deploy, not the tools mastering them , as Experts warn is a viable threat of AI.
    ..
    The Powers already want to hack you, chemically alter you, and eventually merge you with machine, because they are the new Gods of human evolution..
    But don’t worry, Joe Biden just announced that VP Kamala Harris will be the new “AI Czar” to make sure AI is unleashed responsibly.

    1. Corrupt people will always gravitate to positions of power. This makes our legacy of freedom and rights important. A house cleaning is in order and we all need to work towards that.

      1. …”a housing cleaning is in order…”
        Humans have to create a alternative world, just like alternative news was created. The New World Order sucks for human race.
        But, its likely that New World Order has to be destroyed in total because of its outright EVIL and threat to life and earth itself.

        1. create a alternative world

          I don’t want an “alternate world”. I want this one, the one our predecessors built. They threw off the British, the Spanish, the Germans, the Commies & etc. We will have to throw off whatever comes for us; Candya$$ WEFers, computer programs, Racists, Pedophile perverts, Global Central Bankers, whatever.

          1. I agree I want the World that was built by all the brave that came before.

          2. Candya$$ WEFers, computer programs, Racists, Pedophile perverts, Global Central Bankers

            Lots of overlap amongst those groups.

  21. ‘Before listing, online valuations put Faber’s three-bedroom property at $580,000. ‘The market’s doing nothing but going downwards, so I’ve been expecting to go below market value, and hoping it would at least get in the region of $420,000 to $430,000 range’

    Bargaining <- Jim you are here.

  22. Any thoughts on why Wall Street is running away in fear from the housing market?

    1. Finance · Housing
      Wall Street is running away from the housing market. But why?
      BY Lance Lambert
      May 5, 2023 at 8:46 AM PDT
      Fewer Wall Street firms are buying homes right now.
      Institutional homebuyers are backing away from the U.S. housing market.
      Getty Images

      It makes sense that the Pandemic Housing Boom saw a flood of institutional homebuying. Low interest rates, easy access to capital, soaring rents, and skyrocketing home values were just too good a deal for Wall Street types like Blackstone and iBuyer players like Opendoor Technologies to pass on. Of course, that’s all over now: Institutional homebuyers are pulling back—fast.
      …
      https://fortune.com/2023/05/05/institutional-homebuyers-pullback-from-the-housing-market-invitation-homes/

    2. TheHill.com
      Opinion>Finance
      The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill

      Investors are monopolizing affordable housing: Here’s how we can stop them
      by Christopher Tyson, opinion contributor – 04/11/23 4:30 PM ET
      FILE – A real estate sign stands outside of a recently sold home on Feb. 21, 2023, in Valrico, Fla. Americans eager to buy a home this spring, beware: It’s slim pickings out there. The number of U.S. homes on the market is at near-historic lows, which could dim would-be buyers’ prospects for finding a house or condo and fuel competition for the most affordable properties, economists say.
      (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack, File)

      In cities across the country, institutional investors are purchasing the most affordable homes and leasing them at increasingly high rents. As investors buy up affordable homes, they crowd out would-be homeowners — individuals and families who now struggle to find affordable homes to purchase amid a housing supply crisis and rising interest rates.

      In many markets, institutional buyers target Black or minority areas, in part because these areas tend to have lower purchase prices and relatively high rents. The resulting transfer of ownership from minority communities to corporate landlords destabilizes communities and increases the nation’s racial wealth gap.

      This is a nationwide problem, occurring in coastal cities and heartland states alike. In Newark, N.J. researchers discovered a dramatic escalation of corporate entities buying homes in the city’s predominantly Black neighborhoods. In Cincinnati, Ohio, the city’s public redevelopment authority bought nearly 200 homes from a distressed institutional investor and will convert the homes into affordable homeownership opportunities. An extensive review conducted by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution clearly demonstrates how investors are creating barriers to homeownership. That study found a direct correlation between investor activity, rising rents and a decrease in owner-occupant home purchases — particularly in Black and Latino neighborhoods.

      While much has been written about the problem, few solutions are proposed. As president of the National Community Stabilization Trust (NCST), I can tell you that there are readily available fixes to restore balance to our housing market and increase access to affordable homeownership. Now is the time to expand these efforts.
      …
      https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3944122-investors-are-monopolizing-affordable-housing-heres-how-we-can-stop-them/

  23. MarketWatch
    Home
    Markets
    Market Extra
    Commercial real-estate’s debt machine is broken down
    Last Updated: May 5, 2023 at 12:13 p.m. ET
    First Published: May 5, 2023 at 11:21 a.m. ET
    By Joy Wiltermuth
    There’s going to be ‘a lot of carnage’ in the San Francisco office market, says First Franklin’s Brett Ewing
    Wall Street’s main artery for financing commercial real estate has sputtered this year as higher interest rates and sagging property values darken the outlook for borrowers with an estimated $2 trillion of debt coming due through 2024.

    Issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities, or bonds sold by Wall Street banks to finance commercial buildings, has fallen by about 83% so far this year to $9 billion, according to Deutsche Bank research.
    …

  25. Is it accurate to refer to Blackstone as California’s favorite real estate investing firm?

  26. Fortune
    FINANCE ECONOMY
    The CEO of a massive private equity firm says he knows exactly what’s going on with the ‘non-recession’ recession we’re having right now
    All the rules say the U.S. should be in recession, but a billionaire investor says it’s being contained to the rich.
    BY TRISTAN BOVE
    May 05, 2023 5:23 PM EDT
    Apollo Management CEO Marc Rowan. Jonathan Alcorn/Bloomberg via Getty Images

    Investors have been warning about a recession for over a year now, but 14 months after the Federal Reserve began tightening its grip on the economy and raising interest rates, employment is higher than ever and wages are still going up. All the rules say the U.S. is supposed to be in a downturn right now, but most Americans aren’t feeling one. That may be because this is a different type of recession than the one economists are used to, according to Marc Rowan, billionaire investor and CEO of Apollo Management, a private equity firm with over $500 billion under management.

    Even though wage increases over the past year have struggled to keep up with inflation, young workers and low-income households have seen the biggest nominal pay raises in a tight labor market. Meanwhile, people who own assets, who are more likely to be middle-class or wealthy, are more likely to notice an impact, Rowan said in an interview with CNBC this week.

    “Asset prices are coming down,” Rowan said. “We in the financial markets who benefit and live in an asset world, we’re going to feel like we had a real recession. Rates went up—going up as much as they have, we’re going to feel it.”

    The Fed’s interest rate hikes dealt a gut punch to stock markets in 2022, the worst year for Wall Street since the Great Recession, with the Nasdaq 100 shedding a third of its value and the S&P 500 down nearly 20% by the end of December. Stocks overall have rallied in 2023, but some investors have warned to stay away from more bear market traps, while specific sectors, like retail, have failed to post many significant gains. And U.S. households overall lost nearly $7 trillion in wealth in 2022, according to the Federal Reserve, largely due to the stock market’s nosedive.

    But while it’s been a year of pain for asset holders, it’s worth remembering that not all Americans are monitoring their portfolios.

    “Is most of our country going to feel like it’s a recession? Most of our country does not own assets in any significant way,” Rowan said.
    …
    https://fortune.com/2023/05/05/apollo-rowan-non-recession-asset-class/amp/

  27. Banking ‘cancer’ may be spreading as otherwise healthy firms seem vulnerable and credit gets pulled from the economy, Mohamed El-Erian says
    Jennifer Sor May 5, 2023, 2:31 PM ET
    Mohamed el-erian
    Photo by Rob Kim/Getty Images

    – Banking sector “cancer” is starting to spread, Mohamed El-Erian said.

    – Other regional lenders have shown signs of weakness after First Republic Bank failed this week.

    – Widespread contagion would turn the banking situation into a true crisis, El-Erian warned.
    …
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-banking-crisis-first-republic-contagion-mohamed-el-erian-cancer-2023-5

    1. credit gets pulled from the economy

      I keep reading this but houses are still closing.

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