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The Root Of All Evil Is The Cost Of Property, That Squeezes The Life And Soul Out Of Everything

A report from KXAN in Texas. “Home prices in Austin continue to cool after reaching a zenith last year. The median home price in the Austin-Round Rock region fell 15% last month to $466,705, per an Austin Board of Realtors report. In April 2022, the median home price in Austin-Round Rock was $521,100. Home sales also dropped in Travis County by 28%. The median home price in the County is $445,000, a 12.8% decrease from last month. Home sales in Williamson County decreased by 11.2% last month.  The median home price decreased 12.8% to $445,000. Last year the median home price was $490,000. Home sales in Hays County rose 1.1% to 361 sales last month. The median price for homes fell 16.9% to $416,500. In April, home sales in Bastrop County decreased 14.1% year over year to 122 sales. The median home price dropped slightly by just over 5% to $380,000.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “The number of Houston-area home sales dropped below pre-pandemic levels last month. Single-family home sales fell 18.4 percent to 7,310 in April, the 13th straight month of year-over-year declines, according to a monthly report from Houston Association of Realtors. Homes sold for a median price of $331,000 in April, down 3.6 percent from a year earlier and almost 7 percent less than the record $353,995 in June. The median home price has soared by 35 percent since April 2019 when it was $245,000, according to HAR.”

The Denton Record Chronicle in Texas. “Home sales in the city of Denton were down 4% from the same time a year ago. Pending contracts were 5% lower than a year ago. Nominal home prices rose again last month, putting prices roughly $34,000 higher than the January bottom. That still leaves Denton home prices 4.8% lower than April 2022. Adjusting for home size, Denton home prices actually fell 9% from April 2022. Home prices throughout Denton County posted their third consecutive month of lower year-over-year prices in April. The median price per square foot of a Denton County home was 6% lower than the bubbly prices of April 2022.”

“In case it isn’t perfectly clear yet, Texas appraisal districts have been extrapolating the spring 2022 housing bubble forward into 2023, pretending that prices are still higher in 2023. It appears many appraisal districts and their mass appraisal algorithms are completely ignoring the ‘prevailing market conditions’ in 2023 where mortgage rates and the cost of borrowing are dramatically higher than they were for the first quarter of 2022.”

The Dallas Morning News. “North Texas commercial property sales are plunging under the pressure of soaring interest rates and tighter lending standards. During the first quarter of this year, commercial property investment in Dallas-Fort Worth plummeted by more than 70% from the same period in 2022, according to the latest estimates by MSCI Inc. ‘Despite recent price declines, MSCI Real Assets research indicates that buyers and sellers still disagree on pricing, with buyers more apt to walk away than to overpay,’ said Alexis Maltin, MSCI’s Americas head of real assets research.”

Bisnow on Pennsylvania. “In the Philadelphia area, the prevailing attitude toward new multifamily development is the same as it is in most markets nationwide: don’t. The construction boom precipitated by rock-bottom interest rates in 2021 is now in its late stages, with 2023 shaping up to be a massive year for new deliveries. Stabilized apartment buildings can’t push rents the way they had in the past couple of years, and new buildings aren’t leasing up as quickly. ‘For the next year, I would suggest that all developers just put pencils down so construction costs can drop,’ Hankin and Bozzuto Development Co. Senior Vice President Pete Sikora said. ‘The capital will come back. It’s just that other factors have to help out. And we can’t just keep raising rents to solve the issue. And unfortunately, that’s been the solution over the last few years. But the music stopped on that.'”

Globest on California. “A year ago, Brookfield’s Downtown Los Angeles office portfolio encompassed 8M SF, including four of the city’s highest-profile trophy towers. It was not a stretch to say that the Canadian REIT dominated the DTLA skyline. What a difference a year makes: Brookfield has now defaulted or missed payments on CMBS loans encompassing more than $1B that are backed by three of its largest DTLA office trophies.”

The Globe and Mail. “Economists at Desjardins Capital Markets have issued a dark warning about how much more damage high interest rates could inflict on the mortgage and housing market: You ain’t see nothin’ yet. This week, Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo published a report labelling Canada’s mortgage debt ‘a ticking time bomb.’ The detonation time, they argued, is still ‘a couple of years in the future.’ The risk lies in what happens when mortgages come up for renewal. Mortgage holders who have renewed in the past year have already been hit with dramatically higher rates – and, thus, big increases in monthly payments. But even bigger hits are yet to come.”

“The bulk of mortgages taken out during the pandemic, when rates were at their bottom and house prices soared, were for five-year terms. For those loans, renewal crunch time hits in 2025 and 2026. The Desjardins economists forecast that on fixed-rate mortgages, first-time homebuyers (who make up about half of all new mortgages each year) will face 15-per-cent increases in their monthly payments. The news is much worse for many variable-rate mortgage holders. The interest rate on their loans has gone up along with the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, but in most cases, lenders haven’t increased their payments. Many of these mortgages have fixed payments – the monthly bill remains the same when rates rise, but more of that money is used to pay interest and less to pay principal.”

“About three-quarters of those mortgages have hit their ‘trigger rate‘ – when the interest cost exceeds the monthly payment – which would normally mean an automatic payment increase. But many banks are instead leaving monthly payments unchanged, and allowing the excess interest to pile onto the outstanding principal.”

“It’s a nice break for variable-rate mortgage holders now; but when renewal time arrives, they will not only face a much higher interest rate, but will also have a now-growing pile of debt to service. The Desjardins economists say that some five-year variable mortgage holders could be staring down the barrel of a 40-per-cent payment increase in 2025 and 2026.”

“In an interview Wednesday, Mr. Mendes said there’s a risk that Canada drifts toward a ‘housing recession,’ similar to what we saw in the early 1990s: A sustained slowdown in household spending over several years, as homeowners have no choice but to pour more of their earnings into their mortgages. ‘People will be devoting a record amount of their disposable income to servicing their mortgages,’ he said. ‘This is something that has really never happened before.'”

From News.com.au. “Outspoken tech executive Matt Barrie has blasted the Albanese government’s record high immigration intake as a ‘national disgrace’ in a blistering speech to business leaders and bureaucrats. The Freelancer chief executive, speaking at The SMH Sydney 2050 Summit on Monday, tackled the hot-button issue of migration and housing in a lengthy keynote address entitled ‘The Great Australian Scream.’ ‘The US uses quantitative easing to drive ‘easy, relentless’ growth — Australia uses quantitative peopling,’ Mr Barrie said.”

“‘This is not about ‘growth’ but inflating demand for housing. It’s not about the ‘economy’ but inflating GDP. But population growth does not increase GDP per capita,’ he said. ‘What’s crazy about the ponzi is 69 per cent of immigrants are in rental stress, with outgoings greater than income, the second worst group after the elderly. That’s why they say migrants are net contributors to the economy — because they’re drawing down their savings to live.'”

“He described the immigration crutch as Australia’s ‘big, uncomfortable secret.’ ‘With the highest inflation in decades, sharply declining real wage growth, the worst rental crisis on record, overloaded infrastructure, construction blowouts, bureaucracy, mass insolvencies, extreme cost of living and the largest destruction in purchasing power in 50 years — the solution is, as always, more people, despite this being the root cause,’ he said. ‘It’s sending the Australian middle and working classes into poverty. It is politically untenable. Also frankly, I think, morally wrong and a national disgrace.'”

“‘The root of all evil is the cost of property, that squeezes the life and soul out of everything,’ he said. ‘There is no justification for Sydney being the second most expensive in the world. At this point, either wages need to go up 50 per cent or house prices need to halve. Businesses can only afford to increase wages if they cut half their staff, and the AI might indeed sack them.'”

This Post Has 92 Comments
  1. ‘About three-quarters of those mortgages have hit their ‘trigger rate‘ – when the interest cost exceeds the monthly payment – which would normally mean an automatic payment increase. But many banks are instead leaving monthly payments unchanged, and allowing the excess interest to pile onto the outstanding principal’

    Normally means it was a hard and fast rule and they dropped it like a hot potato. Sound lending dog-sledders!

    1. Why would anybody Get an adjustable rate in the last couple of years? I don’t understand that.

      1. I totally understand it.

        The low initial rate increases the home purchasee budget by a considerable amount, enabling households willing to go this route to make larger offers than households of similar means unwilling to do so. And lenders appreciate the business at a point when purchase applications are down.

        Higher payments later? “We’ll worry about that when it happens.”

        1. PS If I understand Ben’s point, lenders have replaced the payment reset rule with a new policy of just adding the interest in excess of payments on to the loan balance. I wonder if the lenders also have trigger points for reposessing deeply underwater properties?

        2. I guess I’m confused. Which maybe doesn’t take too much. Lol. If I buy a $400,000 house at 4% interest rate that should never change until I pay the loan off. Is that not the way it works? If interest rates were 10% I guess I could understand the variable rate type of loan.

          1. Adjustables often have an initial “teaser” rate that is below market and lasts a year or two.

    1. A lot of recent California arrivals are watching their transplanted home equity wealth melt away.

        1. A couple of years ago my cousin and her husband sold their house in Poway where they lived since around 1985. If I remember correctly, they paid about $240,000 which was a fortune back then.

          But just about everyone has retired comfortably and nobody relied on real estate to accumulate wealth.

          1. But just about everyone has retired comfortably and nobody relied on real estate to accumulate wealth.

            My cousin could have given away their house and it wouldn’t have made a dent in their retirement fund. They have a lot more stashed away than what they made out their home sales. Even their kids don’t need a dime–they’re both in their forties and are financially secure and they own homes. My point is that lots of baby boomers who are now dying or selling their homes don’t need the equity from their homes to finance their retirement. Sure, some may be doing this, but everyone I know personally has more money salted away to retire comfortably. The biggest concern for boomers now is dying.

            All the money in the world can’t make you live forever. Just ask Steve Jobs about how his wealth defeated death…

      1. I just learned that my sister and husband have sold their house in Chula Vista (San Diego) for 1.3+ million and have bought a house in San Antonio. They’ve had it with California and have been planning a move for years. They’re very near retirement and want to enjoy life more. My sister is leaving her job in pharmaceutical sales while my brother-in-law will keep working from home–he’s a contractor for the Navy and doesn’t go to an office.

        Both have struggled and worked very hard and have built up a sizable retirement fund. Brother-in-law is a retired Navy officer so he’s paid his dues. Being in engineering means that there are lots of jobs for people like him (but he must travel often). They like San Antonio because it has a large military presence and, thus, all of the amenities like the exchange and healthcare. They’re paying cash for their house.

        They also have a house in Indiana which they’ll use in the summer. My sister went to grad school there and my brother-in-law is from southern Indiana. They got pretty good money for their McMansion in the hills of Chula Vista which they’ve lived in for about 20 years. I think a physician bought it for cash.

        FYI, they started out with no significant financial help from parents since both sides were lower-middle class.

        1. I just learned that my sister and husband have sold their house in Chula Vista (San Diego) for 1.3+ million

          A megabuck for a house in Cholo Vista? Dang, San Diego has changed.

          1. The houses in the hills in eastern Chula Vista are very nice–you couldn’t find a location with better weather and views to the west. A perfect place to retire but also decent schools for families. Not as nice as the Palos Verdes Peninsula in L.A. but a lot cheaper.

            A couple of years ago my cousin and her husband sold their house in Poway where they lived since around 1985. If I remember correctly, they paid about $240,000 which was a fortune back then. But they could afford it since my cousin was a teacher and her husband was an engineer with TRW (now Northrop-Grumman). He slaved away at TRW/Northrop and he didn’t have much time to pursue his fast car hobby. I can’t remember what they got for their house, but they didn’t need money. They moved to Hawaii to be closer to family.

            Everybody in my family is retired and some of my cousins have died. But just about everyone has retired comfortably and nobody relied on real estate to accumulate wealth. Same with all of my childhood friends from West L.A. Many became engineers working in the big aerospace companies in L.A., or like my brother who was a finance guy and worked for just about everyone including GM, McDonald-Douglas and Northrop. I’m the poorest of all but even with my cheap (but nice) house in the Antelope Valley, there’s nothing that I need that I can’t afford. If I want to do something in L.A. it’s just a drive away on the weekends.

            Getting educated and working hard and doing a good job was what you needed for success–that’s the drill I grew up with. Making money or becoming wealthy wasn’t on the list but it seems that most people I know did retire quite well off.

            L.A. isn’t the place it used to be back in the old days. Young people today shouldn’t expect things like housing and the cost of living to be like it used to be. Times have changed and the opportunities have moved elsewhere for many fields. My dad’s family bought a 10 acre farm in Venice, CA back in the late 1920s. The farm was next door to the present day Marina del Rey boat harbor. Housing prices now are through the roof, but back in the old days, nobody wanted to live there which is why the land was so cheap. Poor Japanese American farmers could only buy cheap land and nobody predicted what L.A. would become after the War. They sold their farm in the early 1950s for something like $52,000. That land today is worth millions!

            But most people today wouldn’t want to go back to 1925 and live through the Depression and World War II. So it’s nonsense to talk about how cheap or affordable or easy things were in earlier times. Right now there are places all over this country which are going to end up being desirable places to live and work which are worth nothing right now.

          2. Need more caffeine.

            A couple of years ago my cousin and her husband sold their house in Poway where they lived since around 1985. If I remember correctly, they paid about $240,000 which was a fortune back then.

            But just about everyone has retired comfortably and nobody relied on real estate to accumulate wealth.

  2. ‘It was not a stretch to say that the Canadian REIT dominated the DTLA skyline. What a difference a year makes: Brookfield has now defaulted or missed payments on CMBS loans encompassing more than $1B that are backed by three of its largest DTLA office trophies’

    Brookfield has plenty of money. They just tossed the lenders the keys.

    1. I thought that the Asset Management spin-off in Dec was suspicious. These (I think) are guys doing the jingle-mail. The found a hit-man team – and are f’ing over the bond holders and banks.

      Brookfield Asset Management (TSX:BAM.A) plans to spin off its asset management business next week. The projected spin-off date is pegged at December 12. Here’s what’s happening and what it means for your portfolio.

      So after the spin-out, which business is the most attractive to own? This is a great question, and unfortunately, we won’t know the answer until we see how the two stocks are priced after the spin-out. The “new BAM” will pay out about 90% of distributable earnings each year, so depending on the stock price after the spin-off, we think you can expect a dividend yield somewhere in the range of 3.25% to 3.75%. Investors who prefer higher dividends may choose to increase their exposure to the asset management business (“new BAM”). Sometimes investors decide to sell off their shares in the newly spun-out businesses, and it’s possible this could create a nice buying opportunity for “new BAM.” We’ll just have to wait and see.

  3. “The median home price in the Austin-Round Rock region fell 15% last month to $466,705, per an Austin Board of Realtors report.”

    Good thing everyone put 20% down!

  4. It was not a stretch to say that the Canadian REIT dominated the DTLA skyline. What a difference a year makes: Brookfield has now defaulted or missed payments on CMBS loans encompassing more than $1B that are backed by three of its largest DTLA office trophies.”
    I wonder if the Canadian Teacher’s Pension fund was heavily invested in this disaster as they were in FTX. Wonder how fully funded their pension is.

  5. From News.com.au. “Outspoken tech executive Matt Barrie has blasted the Albanese government’s record high immigration intake as a ‘national disgrace’ in a blistering speech to business leaders and bureaucrats.”

    “‘The Great Australian Scream.’ ‘The US uses quantitative easing to drive ‘easy, relentless’ growth — Australia uses quantitative peopling,’ Mr Barrie said.” “

    “ ‘This is not about ‘growth’ but inflating demand for housing. It’s not about the ‘economy’ but inflating GDP.’ “

    ‘The root of all evil is the cost of property, that squeezes the life and soul out of everything,’ he said. ‘There is no justification for Sydney being the second most expensive in the world. At this point, either wages need to go up 50 per cent or house prices need to halve.’

    ***

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1LR2AV
    Tue Sep 11, 2018 / 2:56 PM EDT
    Breakingviews – Chancellor: The mother of all speculative bubbles
    Edward Chancellor

    “LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) – In 1776, English man of letters Horace Walpole observed a “rage of building everywhere”. At the time, the yield on English government bonds, known as Consols, had fallen sharply and mortgages could be had at 3.5 percent.”

    “In the “Wealth of Nations”, published that year, Adam Smith observed that the recent decline in interest had pushed up land prices: “When interest was at ten percent, land was commonly sold for ten or twelve years’ purchase. As the interest rate sunk to six, five and four percent, the purchase of land rose to twenty, five-and-twenty, and thirty years’ purchase.” ” [i.e. the yield on land fell from 10 percent to 3.3 percent].

    “Smith explains why:”

    “the ordinary price of land … depends everywhere upon the ordinary market rate of interest.”

    “That’s because the interest rate discounts and places a capital value on future income. All the great speculative bubbles in the past – from the tulip mania of the 1630s through to the global credit bonanza of the last decade, have occurred at times when interest rates were abnormally low.”

    “The trouble is that after the Lehman Brothers collapse, central bankers refused to accept this fact. The position of Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve was that the real-estate bubble was caused by lax regulation rather than his predecessor Alan Greenspan’s easy money. If this were true, then taking short-term rates down to their lowest level in history – to zero in the United States and negative in Europe and Japan – was sensible. But if Smith was correct, then monetary policy in the wake of Lehman’s bust was a case of the hair of the dog.”

    ***

    – Housing and stocks (asset) inflation is Fed policy. It went on steroids following the GFC in 2008-2009. The Fed (the Bernank) said so in his WaPo Op Ed in 2010.

    – Asset bubbles are NOT OK, and especially housing bubbles, because asset bubbles always burst and housing impacts on working families the most. It’s a Federal policy. It’s almost like they’re trying to destroy the middle class or something. Speaking as one deplorable to another.

    1. It’s almost like they’re trying to destroy the middle class or something. Speaking as one deplorable to another.

      The Fed since its 1913 establishment by the robber barons of the era has had one prime directive: serve as the oligarchy’s chief instrument of plunder against the 99%.

  6. But many banks are instead leaving monthly payments unchanged, and allowing the excess interest to pile onto the outstanding principal.”
    This can’t end well. Worse then the pick-a-pay of the 2008 era. This future debacle is actual approved and encouraged by the Govt.

  7. I’m looking at a teardown / scrape property. All existing utilities are in place. I will try to do all of the demo work myself.

    What could possibly go wrong?

      1. Yes.

        What is the point of staying in Denver when as a licensed tradesman I will never purchase real estate here? You either bought your house 25 years ago, or you are some soft-hands (hat tip to Charles Bukowski) tech bro equity locust, or you will be renting forever.

    1. I see you are a trades man so that helps, you know what needs to be done and who the right people are. Assuming you are NOT building in Colorado. Sometimes teardowns in stupid leftist states are a nightmare, permits, removal, dust mitigation. Come out to real America, no one cares.

      Permits and engineering can still be a problem for the new one, but having utilities saves considerably on hook up fees. Make sure electric is big enough. (lot of old houses are 60amp or 100amp service, not enough nowadays. New code in both electric and plumbing is stupidly overbearing. (how did we survive all those years) but i’m sure you know that.

      A good local lumberyard (a real lumberyard) should be able to price out and figure out what you need for framing, siding, windows, etc from the architectural drawings. Foundation is key obviously. Windows and doors lead time has gotten insane, order early.

      Leave access to stuff inside (don’t wall it off forever). Since building will always run over budget prepare to either drop things or leave rooms stubbed out. (rough it in and use some cheapie just to finish). Trim carpenters really matter.

      LVP (luxury vinyl plank) really is the way to go. stuff is near unkillable and for real life living (not a show home) really is the way to go. 20 years with big dogs on a rural property and it still looked great (minus a few drops, but wood does that too).

      waterproofing waterproofing waterproofing. Oh and big eaves to protect the siding and windows. Hope that springs some ideas.

    2. I’ve seen a few cases in my locale where complete demolition was a massive mistake. In one case a fire brought down 3 of 4 sides of the building, so the owner knocked down the fourth wall and then applied for a building permit. Impossible, never happened.

      In my own case, renovation of one part of the house at a time would have been much less permit wise but I couldn’t do that because the maniac before me gutted 100% of the house.

  8. Remember, CCP Flu didn’t destroy the economy, government destroyed the economy.

    New York Times — Why Is Inflation So Stubborn? Cars Are Part of the Answer (5/20/2023):

    “Car prices soared after the coronavirus lockdowns, and two years into the United States’ worst inflationary episode since the 1980s, the industry demonstrates that getting back to normal will be a long and lurching ride.

    In 2021 and early 2022, global shipping problems, a semiconductor shortage and factory shutdowns coincided with strong demand to push vehicle prices sharply higher. Economists had hoped that prices might ease as supply chains healed and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases deterred borrowers.

    Instead, prices for new cars have risen further. Domestic automakers are still producing fewer cars and focusing on more profitable luxury models. Used car prices helped to lower overall inflation late last year, but rebounded in April as short supply collided with a surge in demand.

    Echoes from the industry’s pandemic disruptions are reverberating through the economy even though the emergency has formally ended, and illustrate why the Fed’s fight to quash inflation could be a long one as consumers continued spending despite higher prices.”

    https://archive.is/1OqJn

    Remember what everything cost in 2019?

    They’re doing this on purpose. Over $4 trillion in wealth transferred from the middle class and working class to the billionaires in the last three years was no accident.

    1. They’re doing this on purpose.

      Yes they are, and the FED is about to take a pause and let inflation run hotter for longer.

      1. And if you are lucky enough to get a raise, it won’t even be close to the official CPI rate, nevermind the real CPI.

        1. My raise this year would’ve been generous before the inflation genie was let out the bottle. As it stands, it was lackluster.

    2. Domestic automakers are still producing fewer cars and focusing on more profitable luxury models.

      I still wonder who is supposed to buy these vehicles that cost much more than a median annual income

      1. You don’t buy the price. You buy the monthly payment. I have heard so many salespeople ask “ how much per month payment can you afford” then work off that. 72, 84 months. No problem we can get you financed.

        1. Even if you extend it to 7 years, an $80K pickup @8% is $1246 per month, plus insurances and annual registration fees. Just how many people can afford that without cashing out with a HELOC?

  9. IRONIC THAT A CITY WHOSE POLICIES PRODUCE ROTTING JUNKIES ON THE SIDEWALKS IS SHAKING DOWN WALGREEN’S HERE: Walgreens to pay San Francisco $230M for its role in city’s opioid crisis.

    Well, until you get to the words “shaking down.” Then it all makes sense.

    https://instapundit.com/585239/

    1. Any retailer left there should already be working on its exit plan.

      It’s hard to shake suckers down for cash when there are no suckers left.

      1. He who panics first panics best. First one out is always the winner. After a while the gates close.

  10. The £1million London flats now worth NOTHING: Residents’ despair as their ‘worthless’ and ‘unmortgageable’ homes face demolition because they are riddled with faults

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-12102619/flats.html

    Residents who purchased London flats for up to £900,000 have been left ‘absolutely distraught’ after being told their properties are now worth £0.

    The flats, which are located in Camden, north London, have been deemed ‘unmortgageable’ due to the number of defects.

    Residents said they purchased the flats for between £700,000 and £900,000.

  11. The median home price in the Austin-Round Rock region fell 15% last month to $466,705, per an Austin Board of Realtors report.

    Is that a lot?

  12. This week, Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo published a report labelling Canada’s mortgage debt ‘a ticking time bomb.’ The detonation time, they argued, is still ‘a couple of years in the future.’

    Wanna bet?

  13. ‘The US uses quantitative easing to drive ‘easy, relentless’ growth — Australia uses quantitative peopling,’ Mr Barrie said.”

    Globalists gonna globe.

    1. The US uses quantitative peopling too. in 2021 we naturalized 800,000 people in the US. And those are just the legal immigrants who chose to become citizens. From what I have read over a million green cards are issued every year. And then there are the millions of illegals who pour over the border every year.

      1. 55 000 applications every year. Not all get approved. Then there are some other routes. It would be be very hard to believe that more than 100 000 a year green cards are issued.

  14. “‘The root of all evil is the cost of property, that squeezes the life and soul out of everything,’ he said. ‘

    The debt-based fiat currency system is the root of all evil. Unbridled greed and speculative excesses are a symptom; central banks are the disease.

      1. And Berna-QE.

        I will give a pass to Yellon as she looks like a mouse, and I don’t want to be blamed for animal cruelty.

  15. “The median home price in the Austin-Round Rock region fell 15% last month to $466,705, per an Austin Board of Realtors report. In April 2022, the median home price in Austin-Round Rock was $521,100.”

    This relitter math is a bit confusing, because they talk about a one month percentage loss, but then show the year ago price for comparison.

    So the March 2023 price was $466,705 / (1-0.15) = $549,064, with a one month loss of 15%, or $82,359?

    The loss amount seems almost implausibly large for one month. Perhaps housing isn’t the most amazing investment since gold was invented after all?

    1. “In case it isn’t perfectly clear yet, Texas appraisal districts have been extrapolating the spring 2022 housing bubble forward into 2023, pretending that prices are still higher in 2023.”

      Sounds like the California diaspora may face a double whammy of falling home prices and rising taxes.

  16. Re: The root of all evil is the cost of property

    The root cause is fiat currency with zero intrinsic value, measured by which the price of everything is mathematically infinity.

    This simple fact cannot penetrate the skulls of the scientifically (never heard of dimensional analysis), mathematically (a zero, no matter how much you slice and dice it, still remains a zero) and historically (the period of greatest prosperity and economic growth in America was accompanied by increasing products and falling prices) ignorant bunch called Economists.

    Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero. – Voltaire

        1. pre-1965 dimes, quarters

          One of those quarters will still buy a gallon of gasoline, no more, no less. I still have some saved out of circulation.

      1. If our historically-challenged Economists ever bothered to study the histories of silver currencies of the world from the ancient Roman Denarii whose silver content was diluted from 98% to 1% and finally to mere silver plating over three centuries (concurrently with the fall of the Roman Empire) to the transition of the silver Joachimsthaler produced at Joachimsthal, Bohemia to Thaler to Taler to Daler to Dollar to the British Pound Sterling which originally was a coin which was 240 to a pound of sterling (92.5% pure) silver to the sad case of the Indian Rupee (whose very name, ironically, derives from Sanskrit Roupya for silver), they would also know that fiat currency (as opposed to paper currency which a negotiable receipt for for something real) has always predictably ended in hyperinflation . . .

  17. The pileup of conflicts of interests, ethical lapses, and overall moral turpitude at the Federal Reserve have resulted in a recent Gallup poll showing that confidence in the Federal Reserve Chair (currently Jerome Powell) has reached the lowest point in two decades of Gallup polling on this topic. Americans who have “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of confidence in the Fed Chair stands at just 36 percent according to the poll.

    Tomorrow, the Senate Banking’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy plans to confront the ethically-challenged structure of the Fed head on. It is a given that there will be some fireworks during this hearing because the Chair of this Subcommittee is Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has labeled Fed Chair Powell “a dangerous man” and called out a “culture of corruption” at the Fed last August. (Warren, a former Harvard Law professor, has more than ample grounds to make these charges.)

    https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/05/serial-ethical-lapses-at-the-federal-reserve-will-come-under-scrutiny-in-a-senate-hearing-tomorrow/

  18. In an era of ridiculously overpriced housing with falling home prices, is it cheaper to buy or to rent?

    1. Fox Business
      REAL ESTATE
      Published May 20, 2023 8:00am EDT
      It’s cheaper to buy a home in only four metros in the US
      Redfin reported that the typical home costs roughly 25% more on a monthly basis than to rent it
      By Daniella Genovese
      FOXBusiness

      According to a new report from Redfin, there are four metros in the United States that where it’s more economical to buy a home instead of renting one,

      The typical home in Detroit, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Houston has an estimated monthly mortgage cost lower than its estimated monthly rental cost, Redfin reported.

      It’s cheaper to buy a home in these areas because home values “have stagnated relative to the country as a whole,” according to the brokerage.

      https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/cheaper-buy-home-four-metros-in-us

      1. I looked up the place we rent.

        In round figures:

        Zestimate $1.2 million
        Est. refi payment: $7.7K
        Rent Zestimate: $4.7K
        Actual rent: $3.3K

        Is it cheaper to rent or to buy this place?

      2. I was in Cleveland last weekend. Drove around quite a bit, looked at some real estate. I could never move back there.

  19. Washington Post — Why it’s hard to hire a handyman or contractor — and what to do about it (5/16/2023):

    “The situation is unlikely to improve in the near future. There aren’t enough tradespeople to go around. Inflation has driven up the cost of doing business. And professionals are weary of spending their time and money to give a free estimate to people who are unlikely to actually hire them.

    The shortage of skilled tradespeople has been at least a decade in the making, says Chris Egner, the chairman of the board of the National Association of the Remodeling Industry. “For the last 10 years, few people have chosen to learn a trade, because it wasn’t seen as a viable career option. On top of that, during the pandemic those tradespeople near retirement age left the field. It’s starting to get better as younger people understand skilled tradesmen can earn good money and eventually open their own business, but a 10-year gap takes a long time to rebuild,” he says.

    On top of that, costs for materials, labor, insurance and fuel have as much as tripled since 2020. According to Egner, who owns a design, build and remodel firm in Milwaukee, that means businesses determine which jobs maximize profit. A roofer is going to choose a full-blown roof replacement, for example, over a one-hour roof repair. A remodeling company would rather deploy a crew to a home converting an unfinished basement into an bedroom with an en suite bathroom than a job replacing a bathtub with a shower stall. Others set a minimum price before considering a job. In Flynn’s case, one contractor told her they wouldn’t take a job below $500,000.

    Then there are comparison-shopping consumers just testing the waters, who — to the tradespeople — feel like a waste of time. “I have 50 people calling with zero interest in hiring me. They simply want a free estimate so they can find the cheapest price,” says Alan Archuleta, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders Remodelers Council. “Why would I drive to your home and give anything to you for free?”

    https://archive.is/djjy9

    1. So many ‘tradesmen’ couldn’t tell you the difference between a miter and box of shredded wheat.

      At least part of the problem is our upside down education system.

      Why learn how to build things when you can get a degree in ‘sensitivity studies’ or some other nonsense.

      1. Exhibit A: (from yesterdays HBB post)

        “…A woman with 3 degrees who owes $250,000 in student loans at age 59 asked Dave Ramsey for help and was told her situation is ‘disturbing’..”

        Mostly BS degrees

    1. “There’s never been a better time to buy real estate in Bakhmut.”
      — Ukraine NAR

      1. Bakhmut has fallen as the last few blocks in the west of the city have been taken from the Ukr troops. Of course, the MSM continues to tell us every day how winning Ukraine is.

        1. I’m sure those old F-16’s NATO keeps threatening to donate to the cause are going to make a huge difference

    2. Given the chance, the neocons 1: always lose. 2: always get a lot of people killed in the process.

      1. They’re just feeding the coffers of Raytheon and the like. The US has been hijacked by megacorps owned by the elite who own all of the politicians.

  20. It was nice to walk my South OC neighborhood today passing a couple of for-sale signs and not the sound of a slamming car door or parade of cars to be seen anywhere.

  21. To get a gauge on the health of STR’s I check out sales listings in Big Bear, California. It appears that some didn’t realize that managing vacation rental properties is hard work. Pretty much everything newly listed was purchased between 2019 and 22. Many are hitting the exits asking double what they paid.

    1. Many are hitting the exits asking double what they paid.

      The smart ones will undercut them

      1. Already happening. Some who bought for $250K in 2021-22 are now selling in the high 3’s. No way any home in that area is worth more than $350 a square foot, but some are seeking $600+. They’ll be the last ones out of the burning building.

    1. What a loon. She’s a political nepo baby; father was a Nebraska state legislator and U.S. Representative. Claim to fame: first woman to breastfeed on the floor of the (Nebraska) Legislature.

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