What People Can Afford Has Dropped
A weekend topic starting with WNCT in North Carolina. “A Greene County man is moving into his home with the help of a loan program from the USDA Rural Development. Ryan Roberts applied for the Section 502 Direct Loan Program. ‘Essentially we can do 100% financing,’ said Reginald Speight, the USDA Rural Development state director. ‘We can be the bank. If an individual doesn’t have a financial institution, we as the USDA rural development can be the mortgage holder. We also have a guaranteed program that individuals who have marginal credit or have some issues with their credit that we can be the dual guarantee.'”
Space Coast Daily in Florida. “More active listings are sparking buyers’ interest and providing more homeownership opportunities, says Jennifer McCoy with McCoy Freeman Real Estate serving all of Florida’s Space Coast. ‘Our month’s supply of inventory is up over 133%. Even though this important number is up from last year, it still remains in the seller’s market category.’ The median price for existing Brevard single-family homes in April, meanwhile, was $360,000, which is exactly what it was last April. This brings an end to a very remarkable more than 11-year stretch – that’s 135 months, to be exact – where the monthly median single-family home sale price in Brevard was up on a year-over-year basis.”
WESH Orlando. “Florida had the most foreclosures of any state in May, and Palm Bay is near the top of the list for metro areas with populations larger than 200,000. ‘I’m in the trenches. I’m dealing with the people who are affected in our city, the city of Palm Bay. Foreclosures are rising. And we need a comprehensive plan working with our officials,’ said Bishop Merton L. Clark of Truth Revealed International Ministries. Some see this as a normalization after financial assistance programs were implemented during the pandemic, like mortgage forbearance that delayed payments. Some people who signed forbearance agreements did not fully understand them, so they are taken off guard when the payments kick back in.”
NBC Bay Area. “A new study shows home foreclosures in California are up more than 20% from this time last year. The California numbers follow a nationwide trend and are the second highest amount of any state in the country. Part of the reason many are are defaulting on the mortgage loan are the adjustable rate mortgages that have shot up suddenly after the recent rise in interest rates.”
From The Chronicle. “Western Washington home prices were down year-over-year from April 2022 to April 2023, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. From April 2022 to April 2023, the average home price statewide decreased by $56,700, falling from $659,950 to $603,250 and representing a 8.59% decline. Among Lewis County’s neighbors, only Pacific County saw an increase in home prices year-over-year while Thurston, Grays Harbor and Cowlitz counties all saw declines in average home prices. ‘The market’s never going back to the prices people enjoyed prior to 2016,’ said Eren Millam, a Lewis County real estate agent.”
“According to Millam, after the peak of the housing bubble in 2007, home prices declined by 27%. If current home prices were to decline 27%, the average home price in Lewis County would still remain above $300,000, compared to $137,000 when Millam began working as a real estate agent in 2013. Millam said if home prices were to decline back to their levels before 2016, it would mean there were serious issues with the broader economy. ‘If that were to happen, the economy would be broken. … You’d be worried about feeding your family,’ Millam said. ‘You won’t have to worry about money anymore, it’ll be an agrarian society.'”
The American Statesman in Texas. “Panic swirled this week as news broke regarding a real estate ‘market crash’ in Austin. ‘Austin Housing Market Crash Rings Real Estate Alarm Bells,’ proclaimed a headline in Newsweek. Data from Zillow’ show prices dropped faster in Austin than anywhere else in the country this past year. Year-to-date home sales price data from the Austin Board of Realtors show a 12.6% decline in median price for homes in the five-county Austin region compared to the first four months of last year. The city of Austin saw its median sold price drop 10.8% during the same period.”
“But even though prices are declining, was the headline about a crash overstated? Mark Sprague, a housing market analyst with Independence Title, has a different take on the numbers. He makes a distinction between home values and sold prices. ‘The charts are showing what is selling,’ Sprague said. ‘Sold values are dropping because the buyers are not able to buy/qualify what they could a year ago … due to the buyer having lost 40% buying power since the start of last summer with rates rising. The buyers will have lost 72% buying power by the end of the year if rates end up at the anticipated 7.5% to 8.5%. But does that mean your home’s value has dropped 72%? No.'”
“Bottom line, Sprague said: ‘What people can afford has dropped, but that has not dropped the value of any property. Locally, regionally and nationally, you’re still in a seller’s market.'”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Matthew Regan, a broker who does much of his business in the Mississauga and Oakville areas west of Toronto, sees the challenge in many upscale areas. ‘The baby boomer population that own in desirable neighbourhoods want to unload these big houses,’ he says. But if they hold onto them for another five or 10 years, their dilemma may worsen. Mr. Regan points to the example of a three-bedroom bungalow he sold off-market in the Lorne Park neighbourhood for $2.55-million. A two-storey in the same area would sell for the same amount or less, which is hard for many owners of larger homes to grasp, he says.”
“Mr. Regan says some owners who are reluctant to sell a current property until prices recover to the level of the February, 2022 peak are actually losing ground. ‘Sellers may get their price but it’s going to take a long time.’ During the pandemic mania for more space, the mindset of many buyers was that they needed to buy the first big house that came up in a neighbourhood they remotely liked. ‘Now they can be more picky,’ he says.”
“Even properties that sell with multiple offers are not going for astronomical prices compared with the run-up during the pandemic, he says. ‘That’s a good thing. The pricing in 2021 and into 2022 made no sense. The fundamentals weren’t there,’ he says.”
From News.com.au. “An Aussie filmmaker has highlighted the scale of the housing crisis with a revealing video showing just how much things have changed in four decades. Arguing that the housing market is ‘broken,’ Jack Toohey takes a trip down memory lane to hit back at the ‘boomers’ who insist earlier generations had it harder. ‘Let’s go back in time to buy a house,’ he says in the viral video, which has been viewed more than four million times. The video notes that in 1983, the average home cost $64,039, higher education was free, and the average annual income was $19,188.”
“After paying average annual tax of $4377 and rent of $2494, he would be left with $12,315 in disposable income. ‘If I saved 50 per cent of the remainder, it would take me two years to save up for the 20 per cent deposit,’ of $12,807, Toohey says. Fast forward to 2023, when the average home costs $920,100, the average HECS debt is $23,685, and the average income is $90,896. After paying average annual tax of $28,600, rent of $20,008 and HECS of $5453, he would be left with disposable income of $36,835.”
“‘If I saved 50 per cent of the remainder, it would take me 10-and-a-half years to save up for the 20 per cent deposit,’ of $184,020, he says. ‘It’s clear that it’s not just lazy, layabout young people sipping lattes that’s causing the problem. In 40 years the average house price has increased by 14 times, whereas full-time salaries have only increased by 4.7 times. Houses used to cost three times your salary, and now they cost 10 times.'”
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‘Year-to-date home sales price data from the Austin Board of Realtors show a 12.6% decline in median price for homes in the five-county Austin region compared to the first four months of last year’
Somehow along the way they started counting these counties as part of Austin. Anyhoo these are large counties. They use to be rural, now they are covered with shanties. Last I heard Hays and Williamson counties were down over 20%. There will be widespread defaults.
‘The pricing in 2021 and into 2022 made no sense. The fundamentals weren’t there’
Matt, we’ve all agreed to not mention the cray cray years.
‘In 40 years the average house price has increased by 14 times, whereas full-time salaries have only increased by 4.7 times. Houses used to cost three times your salary, and now they cost 10 times’
In 2005 I could regularly find reports with times income stats. Now it’s rare.
I haven’t watched the video but I’m going to assume that it completely avoided the fact that what really changed is that the world ditched the gold standard (which attempts to keep things honest since people aren’t) and went to fiat (fake money) while also allowing a certain tribe to take control of all of the banks. Even if we ignore the fact that this tribe has an agenda that is not in the best interests of various host nations, it is easy to track the overall increase in the supply of money and see how it is leveraged against the people.
With that said, everyone needs to understand that we are our own worst enemies in this. Not only do we put up with foreign interests controlling all of these things, we willingly play their game. Almost everyone is trying to get something for nothing through the magic of appraisal fraud and inflation. Until we collectively stop this behavior the cycle will continue. First we deal with the current bust and then we inflate it even higher in the next bubble. We only have ourselves to blame for this.
The past 40 years also saw the addition of women to the professional workforce, which almost doubled household income. House price followed. No, not all women were doctors/lawyers/architects, but it we all know it only takes one sale to set a comp for a block or a neighborhood. Neighborhoods with good schools skyrocketed in price.
It also set up a trap that if one spouse lost their professional income, the family was far more vulnerable to losing the house. (In the past, if hubby lost his factory job, wifey could work at the grocery to tide them over for a few months until he found a new job.)
This is explained pretty well in the 2003 book “The Two Income Trap,” by none other that Elizabeth Warren, who back then was still sane.
Women in the workforce. 2 income families. Do you think the PTB haven’t planned that all along?
Gloria Steinem was a CIA operative.
‘The median price for existing Brevard single-family homes in April, meanwhile, was $360,000, which is exactly what it was last April. This brings an end to a very remarkable more than 11-year stretch – that’s 135 months, to be exact – where the monthly median single-family home sale price in Brevard was up on a year-over-year basis’
A good run for loanowners. But Jerry topped them all. Along comes CCP virus and he prints 40% of the pesos that ever existed and BOOM! So on top of 8 years of increases we got a 30-50% cherry on top, pretty much in every sh$thole like Brevard, in the country.
Jerry created a speculative orgy the likes we’ve never before seen in the history of the world.
A reader sent these in:
7% mortgage rates again. I recall in January when some were saying things like, “Bro, we’ll be at 5% in May.” This is a good reminder that predicting rates is very difficult to get right.
https://twitter.com/SacAppraiser/status/1661083803316781057
Absentee STR operator in San Diego pissed off all the neighbors. “It’s the lifestyle I want”, of his passive income endeavor. Today, 2yrs later, the house went up for sale. Good riddance, Marco.
https://twitter.com/NotoriousAirbnb/status/1664745645612072961
Great story by @HeatherPerlberg @business shedding light on the #FHLBs. These hidden giants are crying out for reform, lots to digest!
https://twitter.com/Aarondklein/status/1666086876267319304
Peak to current relevant too. But lowest in nearly 30 years to @pboockvar point also drives home the point of WEAKER THAN THE LAST HOUSING BUBBLE, which wipes clean GFC precedent.
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1666423096612380672
Purchase apps @MBAMortgage fell “1.7% WoW & 27% YoY, 4th straight week of & stones throw from falling to 1995 low…strength in homebuilding stocks, where companies helping fill inventory need, is masking the sharp deterioration in overall pace of housing transactions”
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1666416302397726721
Everything is fine 🔥🔥🔥 Not a recession. Just commercial real estate losing 60% of its value in a few short years. 🤨
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1666203595153235978
Park Hotels explaining why they stopped paying their loans on two San Francisco Hotels: (Paraphrased) “San Francisco is a toxic wasteland that is in terminal decline.”
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1666202543943196672
With the debt ceiling suspended, the government is back to doing what they do best: borrowing money to spend more. The $358 billion increase in debt on June 5 was the largest daily increase on record. We’ll soon see $32 trillion in US National Debt, up from $23 trillion in 2019.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1666429619719794692
Canadian home prices fell 8.5% over the last year, the largest YoY decline on record.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1666424392996249600
Freeland is having a conference on BoC rate hike and whole state of the economy. Ton of reporters are angry. Were these reporters angry when RE was appreciating 50% during pandemic? How deep does bag holding go in Canadian economy?
https://twitter.com/maxentropy4344/status/1666466222702034946
The typical annual US mortgage payment is 39.9% of the median American’s household income, per BI.
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1666467802754973697
Druckenmiller this morning on BBG: “I would actually argue since it’s taken so long and the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate… that it increases the probability of a hard landing.”
https://twitter.com/Stephen_Geiger/status/1666447036885942274
“American International Group is planning curbs on home-insurance sales to affluent customers in some 200 ZIP Codes across the U.S. at high risk of floods or wildfires”
https://twitter.com/m3_melody/status/1667149587566526464
Stocks melt-up into a recession, they always do. Just as everyone is getting sucked into all sorts of spurious narratives about exponential growth and AI as the new productivity Jesus, recession will hit, precisely at the time when anti-recession bets are maxed-out.
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1667280994410323977
Lots of comments about bears are dead lately, I think what people are forgetting is something broke in the system this year, regional banking crisis, and the fed was forced to do BTFP/inject liquidity in the markets which essentially created a fed put. And the markets bottomed since and have been higher since. Now what’s interesting is markets higher is driving the wealth effect higher which you’d think would reignite another round of inflation… there has been slight cracks in the job markets and some signs of economy slowing but people’s assets are up, spend more money, drive inflation higher which may be why yields have ticked up recently as well, besides the resilient job market. Not necessarily making the case that inflation is a bear case but what I mentioned in December looks to be happening, we had a collapse of inflation, the fed was forced to blink, stop QT, ignite BTFP program / QE, drive all assets higher and here we are with inflation still very sticky and even more so now after igniting the fed put to stop and calm the regional banking crisis…
https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1667376675745660928
Are office buildings empty in your city? Shares of Boston Properties, the largest office REIT by mkt cap, have plunged by 63% from the peak in Feb 2020, to $54.11 It owns the Salesforce Tower in SF, where two office towers just sold for 70% off the original listing price ⚠️
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1667318588384968704
“It’s the lifestyle I want”, of his passive income endeavor.
Working is for the little people. He thought he was running with the big boys and girls. He now knows he doesn’t.
That is literally a plywood box that someone put windows in. 850k??
Home Depot has better looking sheds with multiple levels even for under 50k. Brand new retail! These are the kind of things I find interesting about pricing/value psychology. How deluded do you have to be to think 850k is a fair price for that dump? But location etc!! Whatever.
Park Hotels explaining why they stopped paying their loans on two San Francisco Hotels: (Paraphrased) “San Francisco is a toxic wasteland that is in terminal decline.”
They decided to stop throwing good money after bad money. AKA cutting your losses. Now the lenders are gonna have to figure out what to do with it.
“…lenders are gonna have to figure out what to do with it….”
Sell it for $1 before the big one hits San Francisco.
More to the point, holding costs for large, inefficient buildings has just got to be off the map. Time is *not* on the lenders side.
Some lenders are going to be exiting business as well soon. Sad!
With the debt ceiling suspended, the government is back to doing what they do best: borrowing money to spend more.
And fanning the flames of inflation. Of course, rising CPI will be blamed on “corporate greed”.
the fed was forced to blink, stop QT, ignite BTFP program / QE, drive all assets higher and here we are with inflation still very sticky and even more so now after igniting the fed put to stop and calm the regional banking crisis
These guys are high on their own supply, and destroying everything. They think they can just keep printing and make it better, and the more they print the worse things get. They should be forcibly removed from their positions.
The $358 billion increase in debt on June 5 was the largest daily increase on record.
That $358 billion a one-off. Janet Yellen had been cutting spending for months to stretch out the remaining funds and buy time for Congress to raise the ceiling. Most of that was taking money from the Fedgov employees fund, i.e. “extraordinary measures.” Once Congress raised the ceiling, Yellen had to pay back all several months of borrowed money at one time.
“Part of the reason many are are defaulting on the mortgage loan are the adjustable rate mortgages that have shot up suddenly after the recent rise in interest rates.”
It seems like ARM adjustments were a big factor in the 2006-2012 housing bust.
‘What people can afford has dropped, but that has not dropped the value of any property. Locally, regionally and nationally, you’re still in a seller’s market.’
It seems like sales prices as are on a declining trend in many locales, despite very low inventories.
So I don’t get his point.
I don’t think he gets his point either. Do you remember all the bat-sh#t crazy things realtors were saying during the last crash and burn?
Are you two actually insinuating that relitters® are not 100% honest and full of ethics??
“The term REALTOR® has come to connote competency, fairness, and high integrity resulting from adherence to a lofty ideal of moral conduct in business relations. No inducement of profit and no instruction from clients ever can justify departure from this ideal.”
(try to read that without laughing)
https://www.nar.realtor/about-nar/governing-documents/code-of-ethics/2023-code-of-ethics-standards-of-practice
He’s right in one aspect, it still is a sellers’ market, until prices are back to 2019 levels or lower. So buyers should wait until the sellers’ market is over.
The American Statesman in Texas. ““Bottom line, Sprague said: ‘What people can afford has dropped,
but that has not dropped the value of any property. Locally, regionally and nationally, you’re still in a seller’s market.‘”—
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1667190061685719046?cxt=HHwWjIC2_eShhqMuAAAA
Tweet
unusual_whales @unusual_whales
“Americans looking for a new home are facing the least affordable market ever, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.”
Image
9:21 AM · Jun 9, 2023 · 205.8K Views
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– The entire economy has been completely distorted by easy $ policies from government, including the Fed, as a government agency. The Fed’s balance sheet at $8.4T, with $2.6T in MBS. Trillions. With a “T”. The Fed balance sheet has hardly budged. They need to actively sell MBS. If the balance sheet doesn’t go to zero (highly unlikely), then this is the very definition of debt monetization. U.S.A. = Banana Republic.
– Housing now is the most unaffordable ever. Inflation highest in 40 years. Still high. Real wages negative. This is economic war being waged by the government against it’s citizens. Few.
– This is the outcome of intentional policy, “the wealth effect,” but wealth for whom? 10% vs. 90%. The class warfare continues. You will own nothing. You will eat bugs. Government policy. America is eating her young. A clearly sustainable policy. Social unrest to follow.
—
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL)
Observation: 2023-06-07: 8,389,325 [$8.4T] Updated: Jun 8, 2023
Units: Millions of U.S. Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday
—
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOMCB
Assets: Securities Held Outright: Mortgage-Backed Securities [MBS]: Wednesday Level (WSHOMCB)
Observation: 2023-06-07: 2,558,236 [$2.6T] Updated: Jun 8, 2023
Units: Millions of U.S. Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Frequency: Weekly, As of Wednesday
“Assets: Securities Held Outright: Mortgage-Backed Securities”
Trending up, bighly.
The Fed is landlord of last resort.
“Americans looking for a new home are facing the least affordable market ever, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.”
Ditto cars.
“Americans looking for a new home are facing the least affordable market ever, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.”
Ditto cars.
Just an observation from the northern end of Los Angeles County in the Antelope Valley. Three houses just sold on the same street after being on the market for a short time. The prices were 400,000 (2 bed/bath), $420,000 (3 bed/2 bath) and $499,000 (4 bed/3 bath). All the homes were very clean and in excellent condition.
The owner of the 2 bed house had to move for his job–things aren’t too stable in the aerospace business right now. His house was on the market for less than a month. About a week ago there was one of those big moving boxes in the driveway. They packed it up and emptied the house. The very next day there was another container in the driveway. The next day the new owners were moving in–a family with a couple of kids.
The 3 bed house was on the market for a little longer, but it sold for the asking price. The elderly long time owners are downsizing and moving into a senior living apartment. The 4 bedroom house didn’t even have a “For Sale” sign in the front yard. I walk by the house everyday when I walk my dog. Last week I noticed that the house seemed empty. The occupants had lived there around 10 years or so–very nice house in move in condition. I have no idea where they went.
So some of the least expensive homes in L.A. County are selling–there have been a lot of homes sold out here. Even though we’re 75 miles north of downtown L.A., the distance and commute to the San Fernando Valley is much shorter and an easy drive. Houses in the L.A. Basin are much more expensive. Contrary to popular belief, it isn’t a desert wasteland out here. Same goes for the Inland Empire which is east of L.A. Sure there are some bad parts, but that’s even more true for a huge proportion of homes in L.A.
Cracked floors, bowed walls: Many warnings but no action at Iowa building before deadly collapse
Shaffer was left shaken by what he saw and said that on Friday, only two days before the collapse, he told workers at the building, “Get away. You’re going to die.”
https://news.yahoo.com/cracked-floors-bowed-walls-many-052039926.html
what a horsepoop story. OMG all the people living there saw this and that BUT CONTINUED TO LIVE THERE.
At some point you gotta take some responsibility for your own life.
Nobody is coming to save you.
“At some point you gotta take some responsibility for your own life.”
That’s really draconian for these non-binary times. 🙂
While what you say is ultimately true, we all suffer from normalcy bias. Normality bias (or normalcy bias) is the tendency to underestimate the likelihood or impact of a potential hazard, based on the belief that things will continue as they have in the past.
I suffered this myself a couple of days ago when my deck collapsed with us on it. Coulda shoulda woulda. Pain does have a way of sharpening the senses though. I will try to do better 😉
OMG all the people living there saw this and that BUT CONTINUED TO LIVE THERE.
That’s pretty harsh. So why do we have structural engineers? Building feels shaky, just get out. Easy squeezy.
Is there really a deep mystery whether crypto Ponzi assets are more like stocks than currencies?
Tech
Crypto tokens plunged this week after Gensler stepped up SEC crackdown
Published Fri, Jun 9 2023 4:08 PM EDT
Updated Fri, Jun 9 2023 7:30 PM EDT
Ari Levy
Key Points
– Binance’s native coin tumbled this week along with several other cryptocurrencies after SEC Chair Gary Gensler made clear he’s deepening his crackdown on the industry.
– The SEC sued Coinbase and Binance, accusing both of selling unregistered securities, among other charges.
– “We don’t need more digital currency,” Gensler said in an interview with CNBC.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/09/crypto-tokens-plummeted-on-concern-gensler-is-expanding-sec-crackdown-.html
Is there really a deep mystery whether crypto Ponzi assets are more like stocks than currencies?
Because Wall St., CONgress and all the usual suspects adopted them?
We also have a guaranteed program that individuals who have marginal credit or have some issues with their credit that we can be the dual guarantee.’”
Backed by taxpayers. #FJB & f*ck the Republicrat duopoly for putting me on the hook for such schemes.
Foreclosures are rising. And we need a comprehensive plan working with our officials,’ said Bishop Merton L. Clark of Truth Revealed International Ministries.
Here’s your comprehensive plan, Bishop: tell the FBs to pack up their sh*t & GTFO.
World Health Organization — The European Commission and WHO launch landmark digital health initiative to strengthen global health security (6/5/2023):
“In June 2023, WHO will take up the European Union (EU) system of digital COVID-19 certification to establish a global system that will help facilitate global mobility and protect citizens across the world from on-going and future health threats, including pandemics. This is the first building block of the WHO Global Digital Health Certification Network (GDHCN) that will develop a wide range of digital products to deliver better health for all.
“Building on the EU’s highly successful digital certification network, WHO aims to offer all WHO Member States access to an open-source digital health tool, which is based on the principles of equity, innovation, transparency and data protection and privacy,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “New digital health products in development aim to help people everywhere receive quality health services quickly and more effectively.”
https://www.who.int/news/item/05-06-2023-the-european-commission-and-who-launch-landmark-digital-health-initiative-to-strengthen-global-health-security
“Global digital health solutions” = medical genocide, and with central bank digital currencies, you either comply, or starve.
It’s the globalist way.
This is fine….
https://confoundedinterest.net/2023/06/10/welcome-to-the-united-banana-republics-of-america-us-debt-at-31-8-trillion-and-growing-fast-unfunded-liabiliities-at-188-trillion-personal-taxes-will-be-rising-to-pay-for-this-outrageous-spending/
“This is fine….”
From the (excelente) article at Confounded Interest, an article in the BB, America’s “newspaper of record.” But is it parody, really? 🙂
https://babylonbee.com/news/the-us-is-not-a-banana-republic-says-biden-while-showing-off-cool-new-uniform
‘The U.S. Is Not A Banana Republic,’ Says Biden While Showing Off Cool New Uniform
Politics · Jun 9, 2023 · BabylonBee.com
“WASHINGTON, D.C. — In an address to the nation, El Presidente Biden showed off his cool new uniform covered with flashy medals and assured the nation that the U.S. is not a banana republic.”
“Listen, folks, this is ridiculous,” said El Presidente as machine gun fire went off in the background. “Just because I’m using the corrupt power of my administration to prosecute a political opponent, doesn’t mean we are a banana republic. We’re a nation of laws and freedom! If you weren’t free, would I be wearing my beautiful gold Presidential Medal of Freedom right now? I think not!”
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=douglas+mcgregor
Different view than MSM on war in Ukraine
DoD announced yesterday another $2.1 billion for this bottomless money pit.
See also: the $5 million payments made by Burisma to the Big Guy and his crackhead son.
giving away other peoples money
New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) is set to funnel billions in local taxpayer money to the powerful hotel industry, providing more than 140 hotels with multi-million contracts to house newly arrived border crossers and illegal aliens. As a result, the city is considering cutting public services like meals for senior citizens and library hours for New Yorkers.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/06/09/report-nyc-mayor-eric-adams-cut-services-new-yorkers-migrants-stay-hotels-free/
Elections have consequences.
Does the newly arrived migrant room come with a Continental Breakfast?
We’ll leave the light on for you.
“Take the Holiday Inn in Manhattan’s Financial District, for example, which is raking in $190 a night per room given to newly arrived migrants — a 73 percent increase in its rate. This hotel, alone, is expected to rake in $10.5 million under its contract with the city.”
It’s just sickening what’s happened to the US. This is corporate welfare, nothing more.
Personal Finance Millennials
Millennial couple with $64,000 of student debt can’t afford kids, saying a $125,000 salary ‘doesn’t feel like enough’
“Even though I make six figures, I still feel like I can’t get ahead.”
BY Alicia Adamczyk
June 10, 2023 7:30 AM EDT
“Even though I make six figures, I still feel like I can’t get ahead,” says Kelly. Courtesy of Kelly
On paper, Kelly and her husband have it all figured out. The young couple lives happily in upstate New York, bought a home in 2020 before the housing market went bananas, and aim to contribute a few thousand dollars each month to their retirement plans and liquid savings account. Kelly works remotely at a job she loves, that pays her a big city salary despite her medium-cost-of-living location. But still, like many other millennials, the couple has put off having children, and isn’t sure they ever will.
“When I think of starting a family, I have hesitation to even wanting to do that,” Kelly says. Blame all their student-loan debt. “Starting to save for your kids’ student loans while still paying your own off, that’s something I don’t want to do.”
…
https://fortune.com/2023/06/10/millennial-couple-student-debt-cant-afford-kids-family-6-figure/amp/
I guess they will have to add a bedroom or two or a family room in a finished basement like a lot of people did when i was growing up…and live there the next 20 years…
They currently live in an 800-square-foot, two-bedroom home.
“Kelly, who is 29 and asked to go by only her first name for privacy reasons, is the breadwinner, earning $125,000 (with the possibility of a 10% annual bonus), but that’s a new development. The most she ever brought home before her new job was around $62,000 per year.”
I saw the photo in the article so she’s definitely not doing OF to make the 125k. I wonder what sort of job would pay her double what she was worth before? And allow her to do it remotely. I’m guessing something in the ponzi scheme world.
I wonder what sort of job would pay her double what she was worth before? And allow her to do it remotely.
A large percentage of these people are being paid for doing nothing. WFH was another scam. Some of them had 3 full time WFH jobs while they were out hitting the ski slopes in the winter, and the bike trails in the summer.
“…and aim to contribute a few thousand dollars each month to their retirement plans and liquid savings account.”
Their debt(s) likely carries a higher interest rate, so why not pay it down sooner rather than later?
“Starting to save for your kids’ student loans while still paying your own off
Then don’t save for the kids’ loans. Just keep them relatively healthy by cutting out high-fúcktose corn syprup and seed oils. When they turn 18 they have a guaranteed job in the military. (I fully believe this gendered nonsense will be over in about 5 years and we’ll be back to a tolerant version of don’t ask don’t tell don’t care.)
Just keep them relatively healthy by cutting out high-fúcktose corn syprup and seed oils.
Haha. You made me laugh.
Yahoo
Yahoo Finance
Some homebuilders are cutting corners as demand heats up
Gabriella Cruz-Martinez
Sat, June 10, 2023 at 5:44 AM PDT·5 min read
Sewage backups, windows that won’t shut, and missing tiles. These are issues that a homebuyer may expect from a previously owned house.
But they’re also cropping up on new construction, according to interviews with several real estate professionals, as builders appear to rush to meet increased demand and close deals as soon as possible.
For buyers, those mistakes could derail the mortgage process and, if not caught during an inspection, they could cost buyers thousands of dollars down the road.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/some-homebuilders-are-cutting-corners-as-demand-heats-up-124424033.html
There is no shortage of evidence that the housing market is FUBAR.
When I was about 9 or 10 my world war 2 veteran father used to occasionally use the phrases FUBAR and SNAFU. When I asked him what they meant he said, “FUBAR meant Fouled Up Beyond All Recognition and SNAFU meant Situation Normal All Fouled Up”.
When I was about 15 I learned what Fouled really meant.
Recognition
I learned it as Repair.
wait wait, do you mean to tell me that crews of illegals who don’t speak english with no schooling working for lowest bid on houses built from “at best” 80% contractor grade and put up in 4 weeks from dirt lot to finished don’t hold up?
I am shocked I tell you shocked.
This has been true for 30 years, it’s just the level of incompetence (and complete lack of caring) is escalating.
Can confirm.
‘The market’s never going back to the prices people enjoyed prior to 2016…If that were to happen, the economy would be broken. … You’d be worried about feeding your family…You won’t have to worry about money anymore, it’ll be an agrarian society’
So you bought in 2016 Eren?
Taibbi: It’s Like Media Outlets ‘Get a Memo to Not Cover Stuff’ Like Biden Influence-Peddling Charges, Twitter Files
IAN HANCHETT
10 Jun 2023
On Friday’s broadcast of Newsmax TV’s “Rob Schmitt Tonight,” journalist Matt Taibbi stated that he believes there has been a lack of coverage of allegations of influence-peddling against President Joe Biden because “it happens to be politically inconvenient” and stated that it almost seems like members of the media “just get a memo to not cover stuff.”
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2023/06/10/taibbi-its-like-media-outlets-get-a-memo-to-not-cover-stuff-like-biden-influence-peddling-charges-twitter-files/
Rant of the year
4:00
Judge Jeanine Blasts Corrupt Justice System After Sham Trump Indictment: ‘I Am No Longer A Believer’
Jun 10, 2023
https://youtu.be/sBBSp4TWQls
12 hours ago – World
States seek to bar Chinese citizens from buying homes
Han Chen
A multimillion-dollar property for sale in Arcadia, Calif., in 2016. California has long been a prime location for Chinese homebuyers.
Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images
Chinese buyers are returning to the U.S. housing market after a long lull, but recent efforts by several states to restrict certain foreign purchases could make homebuying harder for them.
Why it matters: Chinese buyers spent $6.1 billion on existing U.S. homes last year, more than any other international homebuyers.
They were the top foreign buyers of U.S. residential real estate from 2015 to 2020, accounting for nearly 14% of all buyers on average, according to a recent National Association of Realtors report.
Their share plunged to 6% in the last two years, mostly due to pandemic-related travel restrictions. But their average purchase price topped $1 million last year, the highest on record.
What’s happening: States across the U.S. are considering — or enacting —legislation to limit or ban Chinese citizens from purchasing certain properties, arguing it will protect U.S. national security from “foreign adversaries.”
In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed a bill last month that bars most Chinese people who aren’t U.S. citizens or permanent residents from owning property in the state, along with different restrictions for six other nationalities.
People who have asylum and nontourist visa holders are exempt under the Florida law, which is set to take effect on July 1.
Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) signed a bill last month prohibiting the sale or lease of agricultural land, critical infrastructure and homes near military assets in the state to entities from six countries that the U.S. designates as foreign adversaries, including China.
Lawmakers in other states, including Texas, Alabama and Louisiana, have considered similar bills — albeit to lesser degrees — in recent months. Several states have also taken aim at preventing “foreign adversaries” from buying farmland.
…
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/10/us-chinese-homebuyer-laws
How is it possibly in the US national interest to permit Chinese nationals to invest in US residential real estate?
With US housing prices dropping and the Fed continuing to raise interest rates, I can’t help but wonder how much money Chinese investors are losing about now.
Remember the Japanese? What happened when their bubble burst. There was an outcry when the Japanese were buying up American properties and iconic landmarks. I think with the Chinese when it comes to residential homes, many of the buyers are relatively wealthy Chinese trying to stash money here. Many hope to send their children here to attend universities. I’ve know lots of Chinese who came here for graduate school and ended up staying. Then they brought over their parents. But typically they are not that affluent. It’s very difficult for most Chinese to come to America these days. It’s a whole lot easier to get residency if you are an illiterate Mexican with 3 kids. Just look at the statistics.
Pink Floyd – Wish You Were Her
https://youtu.be/DPL_SV3n7IU
Damn!
That former UFC champ opened a can of Whoop@ss on that poor Mascot.
REPORT: Conor McGregor Sends Heat Mascot to ER After Brutal Punch During Halftime Show
DYLAN GWINN
10 Jun 2023
Conor McGregor participated in the halftime show during Game 4 of the NBA Finals to promote his new pain relief spray. However, he ended up causing pain, not relieving it.
What was supposed to happen was a good-natured boxing skit between the former UFC champ and “Burnie,” the mascot for the Miami Heat. What actually happened was McGregor tagging the mascot with a vicious left hook that sent the fluffy creature crashing to the hardwood.
https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2023/06/10/report-conor-mcgregor-sends-heat-mascot-to-er-after-brutal-punch-during-halftime-show/
Conor McGregor knocks out Miami Heat mascot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMlrvREuurA
*1-min, 37-sec
Whoever connects with this smart renter woman is a lucky man!
Real Estate
I wanted to simplify my life, so I downsized my big house for a rental home and sold most of my stuff. I feel like I can breathe for the first time in years.
Jyoti Mann
Jun 10, 2023, 1:30 AM PDT
Lauren Cobello kneeling in a field whilst smiling side by side of her rental home
Lauren Cobello sold her home of 13 years earlier this year. Lauren Cobello
– Lauren Cobello found keeping a six-bedroom home tidy stressful and time-consuming.
– She decided to sell the house she’d owned for 13 years as well as most of her belongings.
– Cobello now rents and has spare money to pay for services like laundry and grocery delivery.
This as-told-to essay is based on a transcribed conversation with Lauren Cobello, a 42-year-old PR-agency owner and former finance coach from the state of New York who sold her home and most of her belongings. Insider has verified the sales of her home and belongings and her expenses with documentation. The following has been edited for length and clarity.
Three months ago, I sold the majority of my belongings and the house I owned in Oswego, in upstate New York.
I’d owned the house for 13 years. It was big: 3,000 square feet with six bedrooms. There was a lot of mess because I have four kids and I had a lot of stuff from living there for so many years.
Now, I rent a smaller house and my lifestyle is less expensive, so I pay for things like laundry and grocery delivery to be done for me.
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/minimalism-sold-my-home-possessions-stuff-downsized-simplify-life-2023-3
“My old house sold in a day for $185,000 — $16,000 above the asking price.”
It was priced too low.
China
China’s biggest cities shrank last year – but they might have a more ‘disastrous’ problem
State-owned Economic Daily says multiple factors including active controls can shrink numbers in major cities, which should not spark too much alarm
A declining youth population and fewer new births ‘will have a disastrous impact on all industries in China in the long term’, analyst in Beijing warns
Topic | China’s ageing population
Follow this topic and get notified the next time we publish content about China’s ageing population.
Ji Siqi
Published: 5:43pm, 10 Jun, 2023
A decline in the population of China’s biggest cities is cause for concern but it is dwarfed by the country’s biggest demographic challenge – the falling birth rate, an analyst and an official newspaper said. In a commentary on Saturday, state-owned Economic Daily said that while the population decline last year in the four largest mainland cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – should be taken seriously, it should not cause too much anxiety. “The decrease in resident populations in Beijing and Shanghai is the result of the megacities’ active and reasonable control of population size based on resource conditions and functional positioning,” the article said.
…
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3223647/chinas-falling-birth-rate-may-have-more-disastrous-effect-declining-numbers-major-cities
Everybody is talking about the birth rate crisis in China as if this is a recent phenomena. This problem has been known for at least 40 years! Same with Japan–they’ve known about their declining birth rate for even longer and made accurate projections on what the situation would be in the 21st Century.
Declining birth rates and populations have been known about for decades–it’s been a serious concern in virtually all of the affluent European countries. The most serious threat to developed and affluent nations is that people aren’t reproducing fast enough to replace all of the people dying. So you end up with the problems the Japanese are facing right now–there aren’t enough workers to take care of all of the old folks. So they train and import thousands of workers to man their care facilities for old people. There aren’t enough young people to operate farms and virtually all of their industries that require manpower.
Mickey Mouse jobs like “coders” and manga artists don’t really produce anything. Japan’s greatest problem (leaving out the Chinese) is their low birthrate. One day the nation will cease to exist in its present form. But the same goes for all of the Northern European countries and America.
Is it safe to assume at this point that the Fed is through with hiking interest rates, and inflation is fully contained?
The Financial Times
FT-Booth Survey
US interest rates
Economists predict at least two more US rate rises to quell stubborn inflation
Experts polled by the FT say Fed will need to take tougher action than markets expect to cool economy
Some academic economists say Fed chair Jay Powell has made barely any progress on inflation
Colby Smith in Washington and Sam Learner in New York June 10 2023
The US Federal Reserve will need to take tougher action than expected to root out inflation, according to a majority of leading academic economists polled by the Financial Times, who predict at least two more quarter-point interest rate increases this year.
The latest survey, conducted in partnership with the Kent A Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, predicts the Fed will lift its benchmark rate to at least 5.5 per cent this year. Fed funds futures markets suggest traders favour just one more quarter-point rate rise in July.
Top Fed officials have signalled a preference for forgoing a rate rise at their next two-day meeting on Tuesday, while keeping the door ajar to further tightening. After 10 consecutive increases since March 2022, the federal funds rate now hovers between 5 per cent and 5.25 per cent, the highest level since mid-2007.
…
Now that the debt ceiling nightmare has been averted, and the bull market is back on Wall Street, is it blue skies and clear sailing ahead for the US economy?
Stocks
Published June 9, 2023 2:19pm EDT
Stock market could resume its downward spiral soon, Wall Street veteran warns
Stock market could tumble 10% as rally fizzles out, analyst warns
By Megan Henney FOXBusiness
Allspring Global Investments Head of Equities Ann Miletti joined ‘Making Money’ to discuss the state of the U.S. markets as investors continue to search for the top stocks.
The S&P 500 exited the longest bear market since 1948 on Thursday, but the sizable rally that led it there may not last for long, according to one Wall Street veteran.
In an analyst note on Friday, Main Street Research founder and CIO James Demmert warned the stock market could resume its downward spiral soon.
“Even though the S&P 500 is up just over 20% from the October 2022 low, that does not mean the bear market is over yet,” Demmert wrote. “The bear markets of 2000 and 2008 both saw rallies in excess of 20%, which did not constitute the end of the bear market, as the market experienced further downside after those rallies.”
…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-could-resume-downward-spiral-soon-wall-street-veteran-warns
Economy
Published June 7, 2023 2:49pm EDT
Global economy faces ‘long road’ to recovery, OECD warns
Global economy faces worst growth rate since 2008 financial crisis, OECD says
By Megan Henney FOXBusiness
The world economy faces a long and fragile recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine, hobbled by chronic inflation and rising interest rates, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said.
In its latest Economic Outlook released Wednesday, the Paris-based group projected global growth of just 2.7% this year, the lowest annual rate since the 2008 financial crisis. Only a modest improvement is expected in 2024, with an output of 2.9%.
Both of those figures are a sharp drop from the 3.4% seven-year average recorded before the pandemic began.
“The global economy is showing signs of improvement, but the upturn remains weak, amid significant downside risks,” the OECD said in the report, titled “A Long Unwinding Road.”
…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/global-economy-faces-long-road-recovery-oecd-warns
The Exodus Begins: Tech Companies Leaving California in Droves
Bogdan Sandu
10 June 2023
Let me tell you, tech companies leaving California has become quite the hot topic these days. You know, it’s like a mass exodus, with so many big names packing up and heading for greener pastures. I mean, who would’ve thought, right? California, the land of dreams, and the heart of the tech industry, is now losing its charm for some big players.
But hey, let’s break it down, shall we?
– First off, the sky-high cost of living has been pushing people away. Nobody wants to work their tails off only to be left struggling at the end of the month.
– Secondly, we’ve got the remote work revolution. With more and more people able to work from anywhere, why stay in an expensive state?
– Finally, other states are really rolling out the red carpet for these companies, with some sweet tax breaks and incentives.
So, in this article, we’re gonna dive deep into the whys and hows of this California exodus. We’ll look at the reasons behind this shift, and what it means for both the state and the tech world as a whole. Buckle up, and let’s get into it!
…
https://tms-outsource.com/blog/posts/tech-companies-leaving-california/
Redlands Daily Facts
California outmigration jumps 135% in 2 years, Census says
California lost more residents in 2021 than any other state.
By Jonathan Lansner | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: June 9, 2023 at 12:33 p.m. | UPDATED: June 9, 2023 at 5:00 p.m.
”Survey says” looks at various rankings and scorecards judging geographic locations while noting these grades are best seen as a mix of artful interpretation and data.
Buzz: The gap between Californians relocating across the United States and the number of newcomers more than doubled between 2019 and 2021.
Source: My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Census Bureau’s state-to-state migration report for 2021, as it compared with 2019 data. The bureau skipped a 2020 report as pandemic limitations prevented a more accurate tabulation.
Note that the Census tracks residents, age 1 and older, and whether they moved to another state, relocated within the same state, or just stayed put.
Let’s look at California’s relocation mismatch, noting that interstate moves nationwide rose by 6% in these two years.
– More outbound: California lost 841,065 residents to other states in 2021, up 29% from the 653,551 exits in 2019.
– Fewer incoming: The state attracted 433,402 people from across the nation in 2021, down 10% from the 480,204 arrivals in 2019.
– That adds up to the state’s “net outmigration” – demographers’ lingo for more outs than ins – ballooning by 135% in these two years to 407,663 in 2021 vs. 173,347 in 2019.
Exits
California lost more residents in 2021 than any other state. The next highest for outflow was New York at 571,041, Florida at 469,577, Texas at 447,363 and Illinois at 341,425.
…
https://www.redlandsdailyfacts.com/2023/06/09/california-outmigration-jumps-135-in-2-years-census-says/
With nearly a million people a year leaving California, plus tech companies bailing in droves, what economic force is propping up their housing demand?
The Financial Times
Goldman Sachs Group
Musk’s refusal to pay rent adds to Goldman bad property loans
Jump in delinquencies as rival banks warn of growing commercial real estate losses
Twitter stopped paying rent on two large US office buildings in November
Stephen Gandel in New York
June 10 2023
Goldman Sachs was hit by a surge in commercial real estate loan delinquencies in the first quarter, fuelled in part by Elon Musk’s refusal to pay Twitter’s rent.
The value of loans to commercial real estate borrowers (CRE) behind on repayments climbed 612 per cent in the first quarter to $840mn, according to reports filed by Goldman’s licensed banking entity with the US Federal Deposit Insurance Commission.
That was much higher than the rise in delinquent CRE loans reported by the entire US banking industry, which were up 30 per cent over the same period to just over $12bn, according to Bankingregdata.com, which collates the FDIC reports.
The jump in delinquencies at Goldman’s deposit-taking business comes at a time when rival banks are warning over growing losses on commercial real estate loans, most of which are tied to office buildings and were made before the pandemic ushered in a work-from-home culture.
Goldman has much less exposure to commercial real estate lending than its larger rivals. At the end of the first quarter, it had $8.4bn of outstanding loans backed by commercial property, according to the FDIC report. Wells Fargo had $91bn and Bank of America had $60bn.
However, the surging delinquencies are another sign of the frustrations the bank has faced as it tries to diversify its business away from its traditional focus on deals and trading.
…