The Market Can See Asking Prices Fall Like Raindrops
A report from Community Impact in Texas. “The residential real estate markets in Round Rock, Pflugerville and Hutto are still dropping in median price and increasing in inventory. The local trend for June is similar to pricing and inventory data shown in the entire Austin-Round Rock metropolitan statistical area. In Round Rock, the median price of a home is $460,000, which represents a 16.4% decrease from last June. Prices in Pflugerville and Hutto are slightly more stable at a median price of $389,403, which is a 7.8% drop year over year. Throughout the Austin metro area, the median home price dropped 9.6% year over year to $483,000 as the number of homes available jumped 38.4% to 9,631 active listings over the same time period, according to the report.”
The Tri-City Herald. “The Tri-Cities Association of Realtors reports the average Tri-City home sold for $459,500, down 9% from a year ago but still $41,000 higher than the pandemic-fueled peaks of 2021. June’s median price fell by 1.7%. The cost of renting is dropping along with home prices. Rent.com reports the average rent in Washington dropped nearly 7% in June compared to a year ago, the largest drop of any state in the nation. Idaho, with a 6% average decline, was second. Blame or credit the Puget Sound area for the statewide drop. The median rent there fell nearly 14%, to $2,893.”
The Washington Post. “New homes made up 31 percent of the total inventory in May, compared with a more typical, pre-pandemic 15 percent, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Prices are improving, too. Home prices peaked in June 2022, then dipped through the rest of the year as the housing recession took hold. In Boise, Idaho, real estate agent Debbi Myers saw the local market explode as West Coast transplants and others swarmed in and scooped up available homes. But now things are getting closer to normal. Homes are staying on the market between 60 and 90 days, rather than the pandemic-crazed ’60 or 90 minutes,’ Myers joked. In Ada County, Idaho, the number of single-family homes on the market grew for the fourth straight month in June, according to Boise Regional Realtors. That month, the median sales price was $545,000 — 8 percent less than in June 2022, but the third consecutive month of gains. ‘Our prices were over, and then under, and now they’re kind of settling where they ought to be,’ Myers said.”
Palm Beach Daily News in Florida. “It’s the off-season in Palm Beach. And that means that properties on the market can see asking prices fall like raindrops during the frequent afternoon thunderstorms that have bedeviled beachgoers this summer. Such price reductions occasionally can be substantial, as agents seek to grab the attention of would-be buyers who may have left town for the warmer months. And if the house is move-in ready, a significant price drop might be just the real-estate carrot to seal the deal for a buyer who wants a residence for the coming season in Palm Beach.”
“Take the case of a four-bedroom house at 449 Australian Ave. Built in 2017 in the lake block, the property entered the market May 1 at $21.95 million. That price included the furnishings and accessories. On May 24, the price dropped to $19.75 million, the multiple listing service shows. And this week saw another reduction, to $18.5 million. The house has 4,224 square feet of living space, inside and out. The seller is a limited liability company managed by Helen M. Ziegler, who bought the property in her name for a recorded $14.9 million in June 2022.”
From Barron‘s. “The highest number of new multifamily apartments since the 1980s is expected to hit the rental market this year. The supply will continue to outweigh demand. And there’s more on the horizon: Jay Lybik, CoStar Group’s national director of multifamily analytics says he expects an additional 457,000 units to hit the market next year. Rents in previously-hot markets, such as Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix, have fallen the most. ‘All the developers got the same memo and they all rushed into the same places,’ Lybik says about the sunbelt region, a name for markets stretching across the southern U.S. ‘They all started building at once, and now the markets have crashed.'”
San Gabriel Valley Tribune in California. “In the heart of Santa Ana, a newly renovated office complex has a date with the wrecking ball. There’s nothing wrong with the complex. Since the pandemic, however, the owner, Kearny Real Estate Co., has been able to fill only about half the space at the complex on Harbor Boulevard. So, Kearny decided to tear the buildings down, fill in the underground garage with dirt and erect a new warehouse on the 8-acre site. Three years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, remote work continues to wreak havoc on the office market, pushing vacancy rates to their highest level in years and causing building values to plummet. Some are selling for a loss.”
“For many, declining rental income is coming just as property owners are facing the twin perils of expiring loans and higher interest rates. Two downtown Los Angeles skyscrapers are in default and dozens of Southern California office buildings are on watch lists for troubled debt. ‘They’re experiencing vacancy increases, and the rental rate is not going up,’ Kevin Bender, JLL’s executive managing director in Los Angeles, said of downtown buildings. ‘Their buildings are worth less than their loans.’ Meanwhile, investor appetites for office have been waning, causing building values to fall by 40% or more. ‘There’s a number of these scenarios where these assets have traded at roughly half of what those numbers were four or five years ago,’ said Anthony DeLorenzo, a CBRE vice chair specializing in Southern California’s office market.”
Bisnow New York. “Brookfield is walking away from another office building, this time in Midtown Manhattan. Brookfield has transferred the deed to the Brill Building to lender Mack Real Estate Group in a transfer valued at $216.1M, according to city records first reported by PincusCo. The historic building was once one of Manhattan’s most famous — it hosted the offices and recording studios for some of the biggest musical acts and songwriters of the first half of the 20th century. Brookfield has owned the landmarked building for six years, acquiring it through a UCC foreclosure with the transfer valued at $213.2M. Mack bought the mezzanine debt on the property, at that time $144.9M, from Bank OZK in 2019, PincusCo reported.”
“Now the building is another casualty of the turmoil facing office properties as interest rates have spiked and office occupancy has stagnated. Brookfield has defaulted on several properties in the U.S. and turned over several to lenders, including two skyscrapers in Los Angeles and another in Chicago. The Brill Building appears to be the first property in New York City, where Brookfield is one of the biggest owners of commercial space, that the asset management giant has given up on.”
The Toronto Star in Canada. “Sold Price: $800,000. Neighbourhood: Mount Dennis. X-factor: Warm-toned hardwood floors, recent upgrades and modern finishes adorn this two-bedroom-plus-den house in the northwestern part of Toronto. The detached bungalow at 6 Nickle St. has two bathrooms, including one in the basement. The structure could prove to be an asset if the new owner is looking to rent out part of the home, realtor Othneil Litchmore told the Star. The previous owners of the home bought it in April 2022 for $900,000. They sold it, only a year later, at a $100,000 loss. Litchmore weighed in on the factors that may have played a role in that outcome.”
“According to Litchmore, the $800,000 selling price ‘is about right for similar-sized homes in the area. We were still close to the height of the market,’ when the bungalow was sold in April of last year for $900,000, Litchmore said, referring to the sky-high home prices seen in February 2022. ‘It was still an inflated price,’ he pointed out.”
The Edmonton Sun. “‘Bonuses are for people who do a good job, not people who fail at their one and only job,’ Franco Terrazzano, federal director of the Taxpayers Federation, said of the Bank of Canada, after his organization uncovered data that shows last year the bank paid $27 million in bonuses and raises to its employees, even as it badly misjudged how high and persistent inflation would be. The bank’s job is to try to keep inflation under between one and three per cent annually, ideally under two per cent. Inflation hasn’t been under 2.0 per cent since February 2021. From January 2022 until February of this year, inflation was over 5.0 per cent — more than three percentage points higher than the bank’s ideal. In June of last year, the rate hit an astonishing 8.1 per cent.”
“For more than two years, until early 2022, Tiff Macklem and his predecessor as governor, Stephen Poloz, reassured Canadians again and again and again that inflation and interest rates would never get out of control. ‘Interest rates are going to be low for an extended period of time.’ ‘Inflation will stay low,’ and ‘Inflation is projected to remain less than two per cent into 2023.’ And my favourite from 2021, ‘The inflation we’re observing right now is very likely to be transitory.’ Macklem confessed to a House of Commons committee in April of 2022. ‘We got some things wrong.’ Some things!? Seems to me the bank got wrong nearly everything that matters in fiscal and economic policy.”
This Is Money in the UK. “The property market is not in freefall but it is experiencing something that could turn out to be even more disastrous. Prices are on a slow, steady route downwards – described by one estate agent as like a ‘balloon slowly leaking air’. Not so long ago, the Bank of England repeatedly pledged interest rate rises would be ‘gradual and limited’. Instead, they’ve been sudden and brutal, writes Simon Lambert. Many people were concerned about super low rates and mega mortgages, but the mantra back was not to worry, as rates would only rise gently and slowly. We now know that interest rate rises have been the exact opposite of that.”
“Daryl Parr, of estate agents Jackson-Stops, Colchester, says he has seen ‘huge price reductions’ and a growing amount of ‘gazundering’.This is where a buyer reduces the amount of money they are prepared to pay for a property after they have already agreed a purchase price. ‘We see some agents valuing 10 per cent higher than others – this is a tactic of false hope. Their aim is to get the instruction and market share, rather than just being honest and moving with the market. As a result, what we’re seeing is gazundering. In a recent example of a chain we’re trying to tie up, at the top end they’re getting derisory offers coming in £400,000 under the agreed price. The knock-on effect can make the whole chain collapse.’”
Domain News in Australia. “The years-long boom in regional NSW rents is showing signs of a slowdown, and in some prime pockets rents are already falling. After soaring to record highs amid an influx of sea and tree change demand earlier in the pandemic, rents are now declining in the Southern Highlands, Batemans Bay and Ballina, and look to have peaked in Byron Bay. It also comes amid an increase in supply, and a decrease in demand, as sea and tree change activity wanes and affordability pressures push tenants to look elsewhere or consolidate households.”
“Blackshaw Coastal property manager Kelly Jameson said demand in the Batemans Bay region has also eased as infrastructure projects ended. ‘The phone is not ringing hot with rental enquiries like it used to be,’ she said, noting tenants had more choice. ‘Twelve months ago you would have been hard-pressed to find 10 [available] rentals at any time and now there are over 90.'”
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‘a four-bedroom house at 449 Australian Ave. Built in 2017 in the lake block, the property entered the market May 1 at $21.95 million. That price included the furnishings and accessories. On May 24, the price dropped to $19.75 million, the multiple listing service shows. And this week saw another reduction, to $18.5 million. The house has 4,224 square feet of living space, inside and out. The seller is a limited liability company managed by Helen M. Ziegler, who bought the property in her name for a recorded $14.9 million in June 2022’
I for one am shocked that Helen hasn’t gotten the 7 million peso profit in one year she’s entitled to. Don’t give it away Helen, you’ll screw up the comps!
And what did she do to “deserve” the profit? Absolutely NOTHING. She thinks she’s entitled to millions in free money.
And what did she do to “deserve” the profit?
She included furnishings!
Here is the house: https://www.zillow.com/homes/449-Australian-Ave-Palm-Beach,-FL-33480_rb/46845296_zpid/
I don’t see how anyone would pay $14 million for this. It’s zero-lot line, sandwiched between two apartment buildings, barely squeezed a pool in the back, not on the Atlantic side, and not even on the water. The living area is 3597 sq ft, not 4224 sq ft. (Nobody counts square footage “inside and out.”)
For comparison, you can get something larger and right on the Atlantic for 1/3 the price in NC:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/158-Four-Seasons-Ln-Duck-NC-27949/86655476_zpid/
Do people pay $10 million for the Palm Beach name?
Date Event Price
7/10/2023 Price change $18,500,000-6.3% $5,143/sqft
5/25/2023 Listing removed —
5/23/2023 Price change $19,750,000-10% $5,491/sqft
5/2/2023 Listed for sale $21,950,000+47.3% $6,102/sqft
3/27/2023 Listed for rent $60,000-25% $17/sqft
12/14/2022 Listing removed —
11/22/2022 Listed for rent $80,000 $22/sqft
6/14/2022 Sold $14,900,000+1% $4,142/sqft
5/20/2022 Pending sale $14,750,000 $4,101/sqft
5/13/2022 Listed for sale $14,750,000+153.9% $4,101/sqft
3/6/2020 Sold $5,809,450-10.6% $1,615/sqft
11/20/2019 Price change $6,495,000-4.4% $1,806/sqft
9/19/2019 Listed for sale $6,795,000+26.4% $1,889/sqft
1/26/2018 Sold $5,375,000-10.3% $1,494/sqft
12/8/2017 Pending sale $5,995,000 $1,667/sqft
4/13/2017 Price change $5,995,000-7.7% $1,667/sqft
2/8/2017 Listed for sale $6,495,000+323.7% $1,806/sqft
9/2/2015 Sold $1,532,855-52.8% $426/sqft
6/3/2011 Listing removed $3,250,000 $904/sqft
6/4/2010 Listed for sale $3,250,000 $904/sqft
Year built: 2017
6/14/2022 Sold $14,900,000+1% $4,142/sqft
5/20/2022 Pending sale $14,750,000 $4,101/sqft
5/13/2022 Listed for sale $14,750,000+153.9% $4,101/sqft
3/6/2020 Sold $5,809,450-10.6% $1,615/sqft
She’s the svcker/bagholder. She handed somebody almost $10 million “because COVID.”
A front-on hit from a Cat5 hurricane will clear everything from the ocean to the sound. See picture of ocean to sound view.
Barak Obama has warned us that climate change will submerge coastal cities. That’s why he & Big Mike refuse to buy a mansion within a 100 miles of any coast.
Oh, wait….
Est. payment: $118,855/mo
‘Rents in previously-hot markets, such as Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix, have fallen the most. ‘All the developers got the same memo and they all rushed into the same places,’ Lybik says about the sunbelt region, a name for markets stretching across the southern U.S. ‘They all started building at once, and now the markets have crashed’
‘investor appetites for office have been waning, causing building values to fall by 40% or more. ‘There’s a number of these scenarios where these assets have traded at roughly half of what those numbers were four or five years ago,’ said Anthony DeLorenzo, a CBRE vice chair specializing in Southern California’s office market.’
‘Brookfield is walking away from another office building, this time in Midtown Manhattan’
How do those 5% cap rates look now?
Another interesting article. There might be a lot of these stories in 2024. I wonder which companies / families are heading for the doors and which will try to recover.
Every time the real-estate market crashes, people say, “This time is different.” When there’s distress all around, it’s hard to grasp how there could ever be an upside. But with the benefit of hindsight, you can see that if you’d had enough money when things got bad, you could have made a killing by taking the other side of the bet. Let’s go back to 2009. There was calamity as far as the eye could see: bank bailouts, paralyzed credit markets, a toxic heap of mortgage debt crushing the world economy. Scott Rechler, having fortuitously sold his family’s real-estate company at the top of the market to a competitor for $6 billion, decided it was a good time to go shopping for office buildings. After raising more money from sovereign wealth funds, other institutional investors, and wealthy private individuals overseas, he went on an opportunistic buying spree. Over three years, he spent $4.5 billion on Manhattan office acquisitions. By 2020, his company, RXR, was a major office landlord with more than 22 million square feet of space in the city.
Today, three years after the pandemic emptied office buildings nationwide, Rechler has been forced to reckon with the possibility that the buildings that were worth so much not so long ago may now not even be worth keeping. Corporate tenants are typically locked into multiyear leases, which guarantee stability in the commercial real-estate market for a time. But every month, more leases expire, giving tenants an opportunity to rethink their space, and every day, employers are staring at empty desks. Many companies, which had been trying to squeeze more workers into less space for years, are not renewing. That leaves an office landlord facing hard choices. What should Rechler do, for instance, with 5 Times Square, a million-square-foot building that 20 years ago was a gleaming centerpiece of 42nd Street’s revival? After the departure of its longtime anchor tenant and major renovations, it’s currently close to empty.
https://www.curbed.com/article/nyc-office-real-estate-rechler-rxr-project-kodak.html
another interesting comment. I dont think we will see any commercial real estate construction in Manhattan (and LA and San Fran and Seattle and DFW and …)
According to Cushman & Wakefield, Manhattan’s office-vacancy rate is around 22 percent, the highest recorded since market tracking began in 1984. When you include sublet space, more than 128 buildings in Manhattan currently list more than 200,000 square feet of space as available for lease, according to data from the firm CoStar. The available space in these buildings alone amounts to more than 52 million square feet: the equivalent of more than 40 skyscrapers the size of the Chrysler Building.
‘The previous owners of the home bought it in April 2022 for $900,000. They sold it, only a year later, at a $100,000 loss. According to Litchmore, the $800,000 selling price ‘is about right for similar-sized homes in the area. We were still close to the height of the market,’ when the bungalow was sold in April of last year for $900,000, Litchmore said, referring to the sky-high home prices seen in February 2022. ‘It was still an inflated price’
It’s still cheaper than renting Othneil.
But in the years following the purchase, economic conditions deteriorated to the point where the building could reportedly command retail rents of only a third of what Allied had projected it needed to allow its deal to pencil out.
King and her then-husband, Gerry Goffin, who together wrote the music and lyrics for “Will You Love Me Tomorrow?” for the Shirelles, “Pleasant Valley Sunday” for the Monkees and “(You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman” for Aretha Franklin, were just some of the 1960s musical luminaries who hung around the building. Neil Diamond, Burt Bacharach and Paul Simon were also fixtures in its halls.
https://www.crainsnewyork.com/real-estate/mack-real-estate-takes-control-brill-building-brookfield-asset-management
What is this talk of disinflation ahead (aka central banker kryptonite)?
Any chance housing prices might be under its scope?
HOMEPAGE
Economy
China is teetering on the brink of deflation. That’s a huge red flag for the global economy.
George Glover
Jul 11, 2023, 8:37 AM PDT
Congested city intersection with many shops and digital billboards
Shenzhen, China. Tuul & Bruno Morandi/Getty Images
– China is teetering on the brink of deflation – where prices fall, rather than rise.
– Its central bank has cut interest rates in a scramble to prop up sputtering growth.
– Essentially, it’s the opposite of what’s happening in the US – and that could be a huge red flag for the global economy.
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-deflation-prices-falling-us-inflation-global-economic-crash-recession-2023-7
Despite never-ending PBOC stimulus & can-kicking, Chinese youth unemployment just hit 21%.
https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1680779265309315073
I think many folks are underestimating the impact of youth unemployment and underemployment.
Not just China.
Apparently India is having a large problem with graduates from non-tier1 universities. There are a lot of young grads that are underemployed and doing gig work (including software programming), and working around the clock. At some point, it blows up.
What happens to Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, then with much less developed industry.
Meanwhile, I’ve heard from co-workers that “India is the dirtiest country I’ve ever seen.” Why doesn’t India have traditional engineers and construction workers who can build infrastructure and sewer systems and health systems and a stable electric grid, and better roads and housing, and buses that can fit passengers without them hanging off the roof? It seems as if the only majors offered in India are programming and coding.
BOND REPORT
Bond yields fell on Monday after weak China growth data raised concerns about a slowing global economy.
What’s happening
– The yield on the 2-year Treasury slipped by 2.5 basis points to 4.721%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
– The yield on the 10-year Treasury retreated 4.5 basis points to 3.787%.
– The yield on the 30-year Treasury fell 3.4 basis points to 3.895%.
What’s driving markets
Government bond yields fell after softer-than-expected China growth data raised concerns about the health of the global economy.
With China’s factory-gate prices already deep in deflationary territory, the prospect of damp demand means the world’s second biggest economy may help reduce goods inflation in developed nations, potentially assisting central banks in their battles against consumer price pressures.
Markets are pricing in a 96% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its meeting on July 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The chances of rates then staying at that level after he next meetings in September and November are 83% and 71%, respectively.
The central bank is not expected to take its Fed funds rate target back down to around 5% until April 2024, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures.
U.S. economic updates set for release include the Empire State manufacturing survey for July, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
What are analysts saying
“It’s fair to say that if there was a soft-landing ETF it would have soared last week after soft Manheim auto prices, soft US CPI and PPI, and weekly jobless claims that are edging back down after a recent move higher. It would be crazy to deny the good news, however it’s worth highlighting that it’s still very early in the Fed hiking cycle for a recession to occur and quite early in the yield curve window,” said Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank.
“In a week ahead where the Fed are on their pre-FOMC blackout period, U.S. retail sales (tomorrow), U.S. housing starts (Wednesday) and U.S. existing home sales (Thursday) are the main data highlights stateside. Housing starts unexpectedly spiked last month so there will be a lot of attention on this. Soft-landing proponents will suggest that it’s hard for there to be a hard landing if housing is recovering.” Reid added.
…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/treasury-yields-slide-as-soft-china-data-highlights-disinflation-trend/ar-AA1dXZuf
How come housing market cheerleaders always assume lower rates will lead to higher home prices?
Perhaps they are unfamiliar with the lessons of the US Great Recession (2006-2012) or the Japanese Deflation (1990-200?), when rates and housing prices CR8Red in tandem?
Got defaltion?
“In Round Rock, the median price of a home is $460,000, which represents a 16.4% decrease from last June. Prices in Pflugerville and Hutto are slightly more stable at a median price of $389,403, which is a 7.8% drop year over year. Throughout the Austin metro area, the median home price dropped 9.6% year over year to $483,000 as the number of homes available jumped 38.4% to 9,631 active listings over the same time period, according to the report.”
Correction: Got deflation?
“Rent.com reports the average rent in Washington dropped nearly 7% in June compared to a year ago, the largest drop of any state in the nation. Idaho, with a 6% average decline, was second. Blame or credit the Puget Sound area for the statewide drop. The median rent there fell nearly 14%, to $2,893.”
Also DFW. They built / bought large houses in the suburbs like Plano, Frisco etc. When inflation really starts heating up the energy costs (pun intended) of cooling 3000 – 5000 sq ft homes, the buyers market will really collapse.
I have a co-worker that bought in an upscale subdivision – greater than 5000 sq ft. It looks great – but completly un-needed with both kids in university/working. He was complaining bitterly pre-covid about the energy costs – it is probably 40% more now.
I have a co-worker that bought in an upscale subdivision – greater than 5000 sq ft. It looks great – but completly un-needed with both kids in university/working.
This story is played over and over again. Why do people do such unwise things like buying a McMansion when they absolutely don’t need to? Same goes with “Forever Truck” purchases. Once I got to retirement age my list of “things I want” suddenly got MUCH shorter. In fact, I’ve got too much stuff like a garage full of mechanics tools that I’ll probably never need. So I’m going to start selling my vintage, Made in the USA, Craftsman tools on eBay just to make some space.
For the heck of it, I started google-mapping around The Villages in Florida. Surprisingly, they have EXACTLY what senior citizens should have: small one-story no-threshold two-bed homes with a garage and screen porch and a low-maintenance little yard. We need to build these little houses for EVERYBODY. The only problem is the price. 1-beds run $230K!
Is this deflation?
“‘Their buildings are worth less than their loans.’ Meanwhile, investor appetites for office have been waning, causing building values to fall by 40% or more. ‘There’s a number of these scenarios where these assets have traded at roughly half of what those numbers were four or five years ago,’ said Anthony DeLorenzo, a CBRE vice chair specializing in Southern California’s office market.”
Is this deflation?
Very difficult to know when you think the price of eggs and office chairs is inflation/deflation.
RE: Bonuses are for people who do a good job, not people who fail at their one and only job
Except for the managements of TBTF corporations who drive their companies into ground, get bailed out by the public and then demand and get generous bonuses . . .
‘he has seen ‘huge price reductions’ and a growing amount of ‘gazundering’. This is where a buyer reduces the amount of money they are prepared to pay for a property after they have already agreed a purchase price’
That’s the spirit!
Yellen the Felon sees no recession. It’s over, frens. See you on the other side.
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1680929852206219264
I will bow, bow, bow, bow to you until you see me!
You will own nothing.
This is the Fed’s idea of “tightening.”
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1679865835417124868
Oh dear….
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/foreclosures-continue-to-surge-with-more-homeowners-now-in-danger-of-losing-their-properties/
1 day ago by PjeterPannos
Credit Suisse inquiry will keep files secret for 50 years
Sorry, this post has been removed by the moderators of r/worldnews.
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1513ka6/credit_suisse_inquiry_will_keep_files_secret_for/
The wipeout of CRE values in Democrat-malgoverned US cities is going to get downright Biblical. Banks & pension funds, beware.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/athena-thorne/2023/07/16/imploding-cities-will-drag-all-of-us-down-even-if-you-dont-live-anywhere-near-one-n1710865
“a quick refresher on the compounding problems of urban areas. Chief among them is that big cities are dark blue, and thus they’ve become crucibles of Left-wing policy failure. Uncontrolled crime, roving drug and mental-illness zombies, and swarms of sanctuary-recipient asylum scammers are crowding out reasonable people and businesses. The normals who remain to take advantage of access to cultural events (such as they are) and restaurant variety are also subject to totalitarian social controls and two-tiered justice systems that punish them when they fight back against criminals. But no matter how desperate the situation becomes, city councils can be counted on to double down on woke policies, then double down again.”
Sounds about right.
The wipeout of CRE values in Democrat-malgoverned US cities is going to get downright Biblical.
So the Lord scattered them abroad from there over the face of all the earth, and they left off building the city.
Genesis 11:8
– Many are still whistling past the graveyard in CRE.
– The Everything Bubble is collapsing due to the withdrawal of free money from central banks. Because of the “transitory” inflation that they directly caused, rates are rising and stimulus is slowly being withdrawn. When the cost of money is no longer free, there will be a readjustment. After 14 years of deranged central bank stimulus in response to the last crisis they caused, the party’s over. Price discovery, creative destruction, BKs? These are all normal components of a healthy free market economy. Will we actually see this, or will central planning win out? Time will tell.
– Central planning and Leftism: Hallmarks of a failed State.
//
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/athena-thorne/2023/07/16/imploding-cities-will-drag-all-of-us-down-even-if-you-dont-live-anywhere-near-one-n1710865
Imploding Cities Will Drag All of Us Down — Even if You Don’t Live Anywhere Near One
BY ATHENA THORNE 12:42 PM ON JULY 16, 2023
There is so much wrong with America’s cities, it’s hard to see why any contributing member of society would live and/or work in one of them. Some of the issues arise from far-Left local governance while others are generated by more widespread Leftist policy. These are coupled with an organic workforce evolution, as the United States transitions from an industry-based to an information-based economy. The result is urban areas caught in a downward spiral — and, as with any sinking vessel, threatening to suck everyone nearby down with them.
First, a quick refresher on the compounding problems of urban areas. Chief among them is that big cities are dark blue, and thus they’ve become crucibles of Left-wing policy failure. Uncontrolled crime, roving drug and mental-illness zombies, and swarms of sanctuary-recipient asylum scammers are crowding out reasonable people and businesses. The normals who remain to take advantage of access to cultural events (such as they are) and restaurant variety are also subject to totalitarian social controls and two-tiered justice systems that punish them when they fight back against criminals. But no matter how desperate the situation becomes, city councils can be counted on to double down on woke policies, then double down again.
Businesses are fleeing. In the ones that remain, shopping for basic goods has become a frustrating exercise in waiting for an associate to unlock the case so you can grab a razor and some toothpaste. Add in today’s high interest rates, which make owning and running a business prohibitively expensive, and the writing is on the wall. PJ Media colleague Rick Moran reported last month that large San Francisco commercial businesses, like hotels and malls, are simply walking away from their obligations, handing the keys to the banks with which their real estate is financed. Concurrently, major retailers are declining to renew leases and are simply closing their doors, unable to break even in an atmosphere where retail theft is encouraged. This process is occurring to some degree in major cities across the country.
But so long as Soros DAs, activists, and city councilors keep making urban life unlivable, America’s cities will continue to circle the drain. And we’re all going to get sucked down with them.
‘Our prices were over, and then under, and now they’re kind of settling where they ought to be,’ Myers said.”
So 545,000 is right where they need to be in Boise?!! That must mean your median household income more than doubled in 4 years. Oh wait…..it didn’t.
Homes are staying on the market between 60 and 90 days, rather than the pandemic-crazed ’60 or 90 minutes,’ Myers joked.
What a funny joke, people buying a home in under 90 minutes. What could go wrong?
Did you decide to dump your Cathie Wood HODLings before it’s too late?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-14/cathie-wood-fans-go-awol-as-all-ark-funds-post-outflows-in-rally#xj4y7vzkg
That’s funny, as I think WallStreetSilv posted yesterday that most of the recent gains came from AI-related stocks.
Denver7: “Mike Johnston is set to become the city’s 46th and first new mayor in 12 years Monday morning, succeeding outgoing mayor, Michael Hancock.
The city’s inauguration events will not only welcome a new mayor, but all newly-elected city leaders including members of Denver’s city council.
“We are so excited to celebrate the next chapter of our great city. Denver is vibrant and the inauguration of Mayor-elect Mike Johnston is going to be just as vibrant,” said State Rep. Leslie Herod, chair of Johnston’s inauguration committee.
https://www.denver7.com/news/local-news/mike-johnston-to-be-sworn-in-as-denvers-46th-mayor-today-what-to-expect-in-the-inauguration
When a city advertises itself as “vibrant,” RUN.
Even more – read the description. The Union Station area is a dump with many homeless and drug addicts. They might have cleaned it out for the inauguration celebration … but it will revert back within weeks. Maybe they will save some of the cannabis infused food from the various vendors at the celebration
Immerse yourself in a FREE celebration of Denver’s vibrant culture at the Denver Vibes Festival at Union Station, with music, art & food.
Get ready to experience the Denver Vibes Festival! Join us for a spectacular evening celebrating Mike Johnston’s Inauguration as the 46th Mayor of Denver.
The event will be filled with music, art, food trucks & local vendors. This in-person event will take place on Mon, Jul 17th at The Union Station Plaza from 5:00 PM – 10:00 PM.
Immerse yourself in the lively atmosphere as talented local artists showcase their skills. From live music to captivating art to local small business shops, there’s something for everyone at the Denver Vibes Festival.
One tiny bright spot is that our good friend Candi CdeBaca was not reelected to Dumver city council.
“A Denver city councilwoman facing a runoff election in June said white-owned businesses should pay reparations for the sins of slavery.”
Voters listened to their senses, twice!
The UK is one to watch, since many mortgages are variable rate. It’s also an opaque market since nobody can agree on price direction. The Land Registry collects very lagging data from estate agents (Realtors), and produces a repeat sales index (like Case Shiller index), but it’s spotty. Case Shiller incidentally was bought by S&P. When data is owned by the industry, they control the narrative. I suspect we don’t get the full picture anywhere.
In 2i2 and 2019, 500 prominent climate Scientist wrote a letter to United Nations basically debunking the Climate Change narratives. The temperature has actually gone down since 1998.
The UN 2030 ” sustainable earth” agenda is based on humans causing climate change by just existing and fossil fuels, cow farts, and other co2 emissions causing Climate Change.
The Climate Change narrative basically asserts that humans and all that sustains them is a danger to earth and the Climate of earth, and CO2 must be reduced. . Scientist argue that CO2 carbons make the world greener, and if anything reducing those carbons could turn lush green landscapes into barren desserts…
Scientists argue that Climate Change narrative is based on faulty science models and data, and obstruction of dispute to the narrative.
We saw the United Nations WHO declare a Global Covid Panademic , that shut down the globe, over a respiratory threat to very old people with comorbibities. . Viable med cures were obstructed for the mass distribution of a EUA expiermental new technology vaccine. The evidence shows the vaccines caused massive death and injury,, yet the toxic vaccine is still on market .
By Treaty Agreement 195 Countries, including the US want to give the United Nation WHO unlimited power to dictate the 195 Countries response to Climate Change and Global Panademic..
Joe Biden doesn’t have the Authority to transfer power to the corrupt unelected WHO that would have the power to override all Constitutional protections in the US.
This is a pre-planned scheme .This is a pre-planned scheme by a criminal cult of psychopaths to have a One World Order/ Great Reset where they enslave or genocide human population .with Governments and United Nations colluding with the bizarre take over
KDVR: ““Since 2020, the cost of housing as an extreme or very serious problem has risen from 67% to 82%, with 51% of respondents citing it as an extremely serious problem in 2023 compared to just 37% in 2020,” reads the report. “Related, the rising cost of living was rated an extremely serious or very serious problem by 85% of those surveyed.”
Cost-of-living issues frighten Coloradans across the board. Three in 10 said they worry about losing their homes because they can’t afford rent or mortgage payments. A majority of renters believe they will never own a home in Colorado, and almost half of renters said they either work multiple jobs or more hours than they’d like in order to pay rent.
Parents are concerned for their children’s futures in the face of Colorado’s unaffordability. A large majority of parents (83%) said they worry their children won’t be able to afford to live in Colorado.
https://kdvr.com/news/data/cost-of-living-housing-still-top-concerns-for-coloradans/
Central planners intentionally blowing housing bubbles as a means to generate economic activity is the worst policy in the history of the US.
NATO was established in 1949 , with 31 member Countries that agreed that if any member Country was attacked that all members would defend the military attacked Country.
So, this begs the question since Ukraine and Russia isn’t a member of NATO , why is Biden now sending our military citizens to defend Ukraine.
Everybody knows that one of the reasons World War 1 escalated into a World World were these stupid military pacts between Countries.
Presidential candidate RKJ said NATO should be disbanded. How about the CIA, the FBI, and the United Nations to go along with NATO.
The Constitutional Republic was formed to only protect US borders, , yet thats the one thing Joe Biden isn’t doing , allowing a border invasion.
And Russia didnt want NATO troops and bio labs and weapons put on Russian borders, or Ukraine to become a NATO member. If Russia had done the same threat to our US Borders, , , doubtful that wouldn’t of been seen as a threat. .
Its outragous how we could be on brink of World War 3 and crook puppet imbecile Biden is doing everything to destroy USA and world , and Congress is breaching its duty to impeach this Judus traitor
The only thing that conservatives care about conserving is Israel, and more recently, Ukraine.
Onward Christian Soldiers.
BS!
why is Biden now sending our military citizens to defend Ukraine.
According the Peter Zeihan, Putin won’t stop at Ukraine. If Putin wins Ukraine, he will them move on to Romania and Poland, both NATO states. That will trigger NATO to declare war on Russia, and Russia’s military will be obliterated right quick. Russia will have only one option: nukes. So to answer you question, Biden is defending Ukraine to prevent nuclear war.
Total BS.
Thank you for your brilliant insight.
drama queen
Putin has repeatedly denied seeking to revive the Soviet Union. But as with Trump, some people claim to better understand a man’s mindset than the man himself.
Blue’s opinion on matters is most often fact based and worthy of thought. Your government employee stance not so much.
According the Peter Zeihan,
His Twitter profile pic is a blue and yellow tie like Ukraine’s flag. Perhaps he’s not the most objective.
If Putin wins Ukraine, he will them move on to Romania and Poland
Why? And why is Hungary left off that list?
That will trigger NATO to declare war on Russia, and Russia’s military will be obliterated right quick. Russia will have only one option: nukes. So to answer you question, Biden is defending Ukraine to prevent nuclear war.
That has to be one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard. First of all, Biden doesn’t even know how to use the toilet anymore. Second, Putin is the only adult in the room when it comes to this conflict in Ukraine. NATO and the EU look like a bunch of clueless liberals who haven’t even managed to maintain any credible military force–the Germans can’t even muster up a division given a month’s warning. Trump was dead on when he said that NATO was relying on America to defend their butts. NATO isn’t even a paper tiger.
Regardless of what you thought of the old Soviets or what you think of the Russians and Putin, you can bet the farm that Putin understands what total warfare and annihilation looks like. And the last thing Putin is going to do is start a nuclear war. What Putin worries about is that the senile Biden and his NATO dummies will hit Russia with a tactical nuclear weapon or two.
That could end up starting World War III and everybody on this forum will be dead very quickly. And if you aren’t killed quickly, then you’re going to find the nearest cliff, firearm or rope to kill yourself. Civilization as we know it will be completely destroyed. The danger is Biden and the Dumocrats, not Putin. NATO is openly threatening Russia and Putin. I would suggest that this is a very foolish thing to do.
you can bet the farm that Putin understands what total warfare and annihilation looks like
Via Wikipedia:
Putin was born on 7 October 1952 in Leningrad, Soviet Union (now Saint Petersburg, Russia), the youngest of three children of Vladimir Spiridonovich Putin (1911–1999) and Maria Ivanovna Putina (née Shelomova; 1911–1998). His grandfather, Spiridon Putin (1879–1965), was a personal cook to Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin. Putin’s birth was preceded by the deaths of two brothers: Albert, born in the 1930s, died in infancy, and Viktor, born in 1940, died of diphtheria and starvation in 1942 during the Siege of Leningrad by Nazi Germany’s forces in World War II.
Putin’s mother was a factory worker and his father was a conscript in the Soviet Navy, serving in the submarine fleet in the early 1930s. During the early stage of Nazi German invasion of Soviet Union, his father served in the destruction battalion of the NKVD. Later, he was transferred to the regular army and was severely wounded in 1942. Putin’s maternal grandmother was killed by the German occupiers of Tver region in 1941, and his maternal uncles disappeared on the Eastern Front during World War II.
“…military citizens…”
For clarity, once you take the armed forces oath you are no longer a citizen; your new limited rights are those granted under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.
Is the move towards central bank digital currencies part of the globalist One World Government plan?
Ana Paula Pereira
Jul 15, 2023
Ron DeSantis vows to ban CDBCs in the US if elected president
Speaking at the Family Leadership Summit on July 14, DeSantis promised to ban CBDCs in the United States if elected president.
United States presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has once again criticized central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), arguing against a digital dollar in the country.
Speaking at the Family Leadership Summit on July 14, DeSantis promised to ban CBDCs in the U.S. if elected president. “If I am the president, on day one, we will nix central bank digital currency. Done. Dead. Not happening in this country,” he said during the event in Iowa, which featured six other Republican Party candidates.
DeSantis is a vocal opponent of a digital dollar in the United States. In May, he signed a bill in Florida that prohibits the use of federal CBDCs as money. He also banned using foreign CBDCs, claiming it would lead to a “massive transfer of power from consumers to a central authority.”
A central bank digital currency isn’t too different from a traditional currency issued by a central bank. It can be defined as a digital version of fiat currency, bringing with it the conveniences of digital assets.
However, it has long been a source of controversy in the crypto community, with opponents claiming CBDCs threatens citizens’ privacy and could lead to absolute government control, while others see it as a tool to boost adoption, as well as a global use case for blockchain technology.
…
https://cointelegraph.com/news/ron-desantis-vows-to-ban-cdbc-in-the-us
‘the local market explode as West Coast transplants and others swarmed in and scooped up available homes. But now things are getting closer to normal. Homes are staying on the market between 60 and 90 days, rather than the pandemic-crazed ’60 or 90 minutes’
Gosh Debbie, I hope no one overpaid in such an environment.
Tranq dope has entered the building.
Westword — Commentary: Sounding the Xylazine Alarm (7/16/2023):
“It is all but certain that xylazine will further contaminate an already contaminated drug supply in our state. According to the DEA, xylazine has been found in seized fentanyl samples in 48 out of 50 states but is most highly concentrated in the Northeast. In Philadelphia, 90 percent of fentanyl samples now contain xylazine, and the DEA estimates that 23 percent of fentanyl powder and 7 percent of fentanyl pills contain xylazine nationwide”
https://www.westword.com/news/commentary-sounding-the-xylazine-alarm-in-colorado-17337101
Good luck with this one, Mayor Johnston.
Might it be that the plan is to get the bottom of the barrel surplus population to OD? They must be quietly removing bodies from Dumver streets on a daily basis.
It’s nothing for them to find multiple dead bodies at a time in parks around Seattle.
𝗝𝗢𝗛𝗡 𝗪𝗜𝗖𝗞 ( ͠° ͟ʖ ͡°) 🇺🇸
@imUrB00gieman
If you needed proof that the Cartels and China are working together to kill Americans listen up:
The cartels are now mixing Xylazine with Fentanyl.
Why you might ask… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Xylazine renders NARCAN ineffective in treating opioid overdoses… (((༼•̫͡•༽)))
https://twitter.com/imUrB00gieman/status/1680960111588839430
If believe xylazine (or maybe it was ketamine) was found in Florida, but they were able to tamp it out. But now it’s spreading again.
The effects of these new drugs are just awful — people get naked and go on rampages and show gaping limb wounds that lead to amputations. That’s why they call it the zombie drug. I don’t think these folks will be able to live on the streets for years, like addicts used to. Infections will kill them first.
people get naked and go on rampages and show gaping limb wounds that lead to amputations
Wow, that sounds like so much fun. Where do I sign up? /sarc
I have less than zero interest in drugs. I don’t get the attraction.
“Consolação” – Rosinha de Valença, 1966
ArtistArchive
May 26, 2014
Consolação (Baden Powell)
From the German television broadcast “Folklore Der Welt – Bossa Nova do Brasil.” Recorded in 1966.
Rosinha de Valença – Guitar
J. T. Meirelles – Flute
Rubens Bassini – Tamborim
Chico Batera – Drums
Sergio Barroso – Bass
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxi_qliU3DE
6 minutes.
Query Obama Gas Mortgage?
No, not this:
https://m.youtube.com/results?sp=mAEA&search_query=obama+gas+mortgage
Sh!tshow going on over at Illumina. I don’t see how the San Diego economy doesn’t take a hit with Illumina being one of the region’s top 25 employers. CEO has resigned since this CNBC visit on 4/26 (5m42s), the company has been hit with a $476M EU antitrust fine, and it just finished Round 3 of layoffs. To make things even more interesting, three former female employees have sued Grail over tech bro culture and Icahn is in the cross-hairs of short-seller Hindenburg who’s alleging Icahn’s enterprise is a Ponzi scheme. Illumina also has ties to Sequoia Capital, which is arguably a front for the CCP.
Wow, that’s a lot to unpack.
And I left out ties to the WEF.
James Comer: Bidens Owned over 20 Shell Companies to Hide Payments, Launder Money
WENDELL HUSEBØ
17 Jul 2023
The Biden family opened more than 20 shell companies to hide payments and launder money, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-KY) said Sunday.
After reviewing Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) at the Treasury and subpoenaing banks and individuals, Comer posted on Twitter that the Biden family created more than 20 entities to accept, forward, and collect payment from a wide range of business associates.
“We found all these shell companies that make absolutely no sense,” Comer told Fox News. “I don’t believe they have paid a penny of revenue, a penny of taxes on most of the millions of dollars they received from our adversaries around the world.”
In March, the committee revealed the Biden family business over the course of several years received over $10 million from business schemes in Romania and China in return for what appears to be influence peddling.
For instance, SARs obtained by the committee revealed a Biden associate, Rob Walker, received a $3 million wire transfer from CEFC China Energy Co. In turn, four Biden family members — Hunter, James, Hallie, and an unidentified “Biden” — received a collective $1.3 million cut from the $3 million wire transfer.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/07/17/james-comer-bidens-owned-20-shell-companies-hide-payments-launder-money/
Isn’t Hallie Biden the widowed sister in law who Hunter was diddling?
Yahoo
Bloomberg
This Yield Curve Inversion Is ‘Different,’ Goldman Sachs Says
Ye Xie
Mon, July 17, 2023 at 2:07 PM PDT·2 min read
In this article:
(Bloomberg) — While the deeply inverted yield curve has stoked anxiety among investors about the prospect of a recession, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has a different message: stop worrying about it.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yield-curve-inversion-different-goldman-210719368.html