We Are Paying The Price For The Property Bubble
A report from Community Impact in Texas. “The market presents a unique challenge to agents, buyers, sellers, title agents and anyone involved in real estate, said Shelby Buehler, an agent with The Buehler Group in Flower Mound and Lewisville. Buehler said their agency is encouraging sellers to lower their asking prices. ‘We don’t want sellers to put their house on the market, get zero or below-asking bids, and then have to keep lowering and lowering,’ she said. As an example, the saga of a particular house recently on the market in Lewisville opened eyes among Buehler and her colleagues. A home that Buehler described as ‘perfect’ went on the market earlier this year and had only three bidders for it—a number that would have seemed unfathomable just one year earlier, she said.”
“The Buehler Group generally dissuades their clients from putting a home on the market during a holiday weekend, such as Memorial Day. But inevitably, a client or two will make the decision to officially put their ‘For Sale’ sign out front during that time, Buehler said. ‘We didn’t get any interest in a home that went up on Memorial Day, but we didn’t think too much about it,’ she said. ‘But then the next weekend came and went, and we still didn’t have any interest. That was when we looked at each other and said, ‘Whoa.’”
The American Statesman in Texas. “StoryBuilt, one of Austin’s most active urban developers, said Monday it has agreed to enter a voluntary receivership as it addresses deep financial issues. Earlier this month, the Austin-based firm sent a letter to shareholders announcing a major reorganization, which included the departure of two top leaders and furloughing employees. In the statement on Monday, StoryBuilt said of the receivership: ‘The decision, made considering recent market challenges, marks a strategic move towards the company’s restructuring.’ According to StoryBuilt’s website, it previously had a team of more than 250 people. In addition to Austin, the firm has announced projects in Dallas, Seattle and Denver. StoryBuilt was founded in 2001 as PSW Real Estate. The firm specializes in infill projects, building mixed-use developments with apartments, condos, townhomes and single-family homes as well as shops, restaurants and retail space.”
The Marin Independent Journal in California. “The median price of a detached home in Marin has dipped to $1.7 million, a year-over-year decline of nearly 10%, according to the latest data from the county assessor’s office. The figure was down from $1.8 million in May and the prior peaks of more than $2 million in April and May of 2022. But Patricia Oxman, an agent with of Golden Gate Sotheby’s International in Greenbrae, said median prices are just one metric to gauge the state of the market. She said comparing them to a year ago, when the market was in a frenzy, gives a distorted view of conditions now.”
“Oxman said 42% of detached homes in Marin are still selling above the asking price, although there might be fewer offers on properties than last year. ‘We have to remember, 2022 was nuts,’ she said. ‘In terms of Marin’s mentality and expectations, any planet that was getting 42% of properties over asking would say we’re in high grass.'”
From KHON 2. “A mixed-use commercial and residential development on the old Kamehameha Drive-in location in Aiea could be in limbo. A Hawaii developer pulled out of the project and the land owners received a notice of violation from the City as homeless people occupy the space. The residential and commercial project known as Live, Work, Play Aiea seems further away from becoming a reality. Hawaii-based housing developer Stanford Carr was involved in the proposed project but said they gave up the option to purchase the property last June over rising interests and concerns of a possible economic recession. So far, KHON2 News has not been able to reach the owners. Community members like Stephen Wood hope this is not a missed opportunity. Wood said, ‘I think it’s in a pretty ideal location, I don’t understand why there isn’t any movement in terms of developing the property.'”
Fox News on Illinois. “Chicago could be hit with a controversial new real estate transfer tax increase on properties above $1 million to build permanent supportive housing units for the homeless. But the proposal could place an additional burden on an already-struggling real estate climate in the Windy City, some realtor groups fear. City officials heard testimonies from housing advocates, city employees and realtor groups during the three-hour meeting. ‘Market studies suggest that Chicago’s office buildings have lost 50% of their value, and we estimate that almost half of Chicago’s office buildings are in some state of financial distress,’ spokesperson Amy Masters said during the meeting.”
From Bankrate. “Have you been looking around the housing market and thinking ‘There goes the neighborhood’? Well, you are not alone. In May of this year, ATTOM recorded a sharp uptick in foreclosure rates around the United States. ‘The lifting of all COVID-19 related moratoriums that have finally unclogged the pipeline of distressed properties,’ said Kristen D. Conti, the co-chairwoman of Default Industry Leaders. ‘Those people who chose to take advantage of programs where they could not pay their mortgages and put the payments on the back end of the loan are now faced with homes whose prices are leveling out and they find themselves underwater.'”
“‘The escalation of prices put many marginal buyers at the very top of their qualifying range,’ Conti said. ‘Any change affecting household income can be catastrophic right now as prices become more prevalent and prices decrease.’ And there are some telltale signs that more bad news might be on the way. ‘I believe foreclosure rates will continue to increase,’ Conti said. ‘I know the clients I work with are gearing up their loss mitigation departments in preparation for what is next in our market. What many people don’t realize is just because a person has equity in their home, it doesn’t necessarily mean they can make the payment on it.'”
CTV News in Canada. “Windows and doors boarded up, yards unkempt and trash strewn about. What’s surprising is that these housing units are owned and maintained by the Government of Saskatchewan. The Saskatchewan NDP took a tour through North Central Regina, aiming to highlight the troubling issue of government housing vacancies. ‘This is one of almost 700 units across Regina,’ NDP MLA Meara Conway told CTV News. ‘The empty Regina housing units don’t just exist here in North Central. They exist across the city.'”
Discover Moose Jaw in Canada. “New Saskatchewan Housing Corporation (SHC) documents received by the Official Opposition through a freedom of information request show that last year in Regina, 691 of the 2,986 available units sat vacant. That represents nearly 1 in 4 of the SHC’s units in Regina. A release by the NDP states that Regina is far from the only centre with high vacancy rates. Other locations include: Estevan with 110 of the 295 units sitting vacant (37% vacant). Meadow Lake with 62 of the 213 units sitting vacant (29% vacant). The Battlefords with 143 of the 629 units sitting vacant (23% vacant). Prince Albert with 159 of the 934 units sitting vacant (17% vacant).”
“‘We see hundreds of people waiting months and even years on wait lists to access publicly owned units within their financial reach. We have a tent city in Regina and more across the province while these publicly owned units just sit there collecting dust,’ said Conway.”
The Independent. “In May this year, residents of Whitstable gathered to discuss a growing crisis – the slow death of their community at the hands of tourists, with the blame laid firmly on the growth of second homes and holiday lets. Locals listed numerous problems caused by a proliferation of short-term rentals in recent years, from poor parking and litter to all-night parties. The seaside town on Kent’s northern coast has also seen a steady decline in year-round inhabitants, which has left the town feeling ‘hollowed out,’ they said. It’s a familiar story for anyone living in one of the UK’s holiday hotspots. Around the coast, and in popular tourist destinations such as the Cotswolds, the Lake District, and parts of Wales, resentment has been brewing for some time.”
“Janet Pearson lives in Newlyn, a working fishing port in West Cornwall that has become increasingly popular with holidaymakers in recent years. One by one, the houses are being sold to investors and let out for a week or two at a time. ‘It’s cancerous in the way it’s spreading,’ she said. ‘When I first moved here 10 years ago, every house on my road was lived in, with several families and quite a few children. It’s sad in the winter. When I pull my curtains at night and look out, the houses opposite are just dead. There’s no light in them at all. It makes me feel very isolated.'”
ABC News in Australia. “The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold for consecutive months for the first time since it started raising them in May last year. Writer and part-time teacher Kimberley Starr has yet to feel the full effect of the RBA’s rate hikes, but is about to roll off her cheap fixed-rate loan in October. When she does, she estimates her repayments will jump by around $1,000 a month, from 40 to nearly 60 per cent of her take home pay.”
“‘A few months ago, when I realised what was going to happen, I started putting aside money every pay, just to try to see what it was going to be like,’ she told ABC’s The Business program. ‘So every pay I’ve just saved as much as I can — it’s never gotten to an extra $1,000 a month.’ Ms Starr, a single mother who also helps care for her elderly mother, said the cuts she has made and plans to make will not be enough to cover the extra repayments. ‘I’m actually really frightened and I don’t know what my plan is,’ she said. ‘I guess we’ll just have to buy a lot less food, we won’t go out. I’m thinking about getting rid of my health insurance. Or to cut down on things like Netflix and Stan that mounted up during COVID. Once you add all those things together, they still come to only a few hundred dollars a month, and my extra mortgage will be $1,000. It’s just unimaginable. I don’t know what I’m going to do?'”
The South China Morning Post. “A long-held notion among China’s private entrepreneurs was that the best way to offset business losses – or to fund an expansion – was to simply sell off a bit of real estate. To that end, Steve Wang and his elder brother bought up high-end office space and residences in southern China’s Guangzhou over the past few years. They saw these properties as not only an investment, but also as sort of a rainy-day fund that could be liquidated if times got tough.”
“‘Before the pandemic, Chinese companies, especially listed ones, held a lot of properties. They were not only high-value fixed assets that enabled us to get loans for business expansion, but they could also bring more profits than our main business,’ said Wang, who made his fortune by investing heavily in large photovoltaic projects across the country. ‘Housing prices have fallen back to the level of 2018 and 2019,’ he added. ‘We will not sell the real estate we have on hand, because we still need them as fixed assets … But we also have no plans to invest in new properties. Profits in our industry are becoming flat … and investing in real estate is even becoming less profitable [and] much more risky.'”
“‘China is facing pressure to realise economic growth at 5 per cent,’ said Mao Zhenghua, director of the Institute of Economic Research at Renmin University. ‘At the same time, it has to bear dual shocks at home and abroad. We need arduous efforts to reverse the downward trend of economic growth over the medium to long term. We are going to face a more complicated economic situation over the long run. We are paying the price for the property bubble, which saw persistent price hikes over the years, and this is the only way for China to reduce its reliance on real estate. I do not think any measures are available to remake it as a pillar of the economy,’ Mao said.”
“Meanwhile, most analysts expect that regulators will continue to refrain from strong stimulus measures, amid concerns that these could further inflate the property bubble. ‘The government does not want to solve today’s problems by just creating a bigger bubble to deflate in the future,’ said Wei He at Gavekal Dragonomics.”
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‘I’m actually really frightened and I don’t know what my plan is,’ she said. ‘I guess we’ll just have to buy a lot less food’
Ah-HA! You have been eating Kim. Yer gonna have to lose some weight if you want to be a winnah!
I wish I was upside down on my house, I need to lose some weight.
Oh, I hear that they have a new, weekly diabetes jab that also can be used for weight loss. Oh boy oh boy. Side effects are depression, suicidal moods, and best of all, it can paralyze your bowels !
Permanently ! That sounds fun ! Imagine a steak you ate a month ago trapped and mortifying in your body! I am sure they will come up with a pill for that. Oh, and I read they want to give it to children as young as 11.
‘They were not only high-value fixed assets that enabled us to get loans for business expansion, but they could also bring more profits than our main business,’ said Wang, who made his fortune by investing heavily in large photovoltaic projects across the country. ‘Housing prices have fallen back to the level of 2018 and 2019,’ he added. ‘We will not sell the real estate we have on hand, because we still need them as fixed assets’
I’m guessing Steve has borrowed up to his eyeballs.
“They saw these properties as not only an investment, but also as sort of a rainy-day fund that could be liquidated if times got tough.”
How does that work if you owe more on your properties than you can sell them for?
“How does that work if you owe more on your properties than you can sell them for?”
Grab the knee pads and beg your banker for a short sale.
Or you tell the banker to grab his knee pads because your not gonna pay anymore, but you’ll take care of the property as the years go by until they foreclose, all while you promise not to cannibalize the property when you leave…..a promise you don’t plan on keeping. At least that’s how it played out last time.
You will own nothing.
Your stuff owns you.
Bob’s your uncle
‘We didn’t get any interest in a home that went up on Memorial Day, but we didn’t think too much about it,’ she said. ‘But then the next weekend came and went, and we still didn’t have any interest. That was when we looked at each other and said, ‘Whoa.’”
B…b…but the NAR ads always assure us that realtors are experts on the local housing market.
‘In terms of Marin’s mentality and expectations, any planet that was getting 42% of properties over asking would say we’re in high grass.’”
That didn’t stop Patricia & her ilk from pushing the FOMO lemmings into making the worst financial decision of their soon-to-be-blighted lives.
Tapped-out Murican debt donkeys are balking at paying greedy dealer prices for used cars.
https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1685779330595536896
Have you noticed that, despite all of these sensational tweets about an impending auto price collapse over the past year+, prices remain in the stratosphere?
Lots of people just hang out on Twitter and post clickbait every day. Meanwhile, prices have remained at ludicrous levels. I’m not saying they won’t come down, but it’s clear to me that they’re just trolling for clicks with a lot of this stuff.
PS – the math says that there are roughly 6 million fewer cars due to the shutdowns and “chip shortage,” or whatever you want to blame it on. There is tremendous pent-up demand. As somebody who would like to buy a gently used vehicle for a good price, it’s disheartening, but I imagine it will be years before this imbalance is rectified.
Then I’ll just keep driving my current car…..for years. But I know I’m seeing price drops. I’m in the market for a gently used F150 and I’m seeing a consistent downward trend and price drops. So yeah…..I’m in no hurry.
I’m doing the same, not even considering a purchase until prices resemble something sane. Right now, they don’t.
This strategy works until you have to buy a car when some illegal runs into you and your car is a total loss.
There is tremendous pent-up demand.
I have a 10 year old, low mileage (under 50K) KIA that last year could have fetched 80% of what it cost when it was new. That percent has dropped to 60%, which is still absurd. It wasn’t that long ago when a 2-3 year old car easily lost 40% of its initial value, if not more. My 10 year old car, even with its low mileage and good condition shouldn’t be more than 20-25% of the original MSRP.
1972 Chevrolet K5 Blazer CST 4×4
Sold for $79,000 on 7/22/23
The speculative bubble in used cars is still roaring. People stopped working and started speculating. The central bank and .gov created an absolutely massive speculative orgy.
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1972-chevrolet-blazer-151/
These blazers were really unsafe at highway speeds, but they were a great beach ride. Think Pismo Beach.
With the stock market booming, this seems like a historically bad time to be mired in highly leveraged, illiquid, falling price real estate investments.
Financial Times
US equities
US stocks notch longest monthly winning streak in two years
S&P 500 is up more than 19% in 2023 as investors seize on falling inflation and resilient growth
US stock price gains have begun to broaden over the past two months amid signs the Fed is nearing the end of its cycle of interest rate increases
Nicholas Megaw and Harriet Clarfelt in New York and Daria Mosolova in London yesterday
US stocks have recorded their longest monthly winning streak in two years, as optimism about falling inflation and resilient growth encourages increasingly broad market gains.
The S&P 500 rose 3.1 per cent in July, including a 0.2 per cent gain during the final session of the month on Monday. The increase marked the fifth consecutive month higher for the blue-chip index and the longest such run since the summer of 2021.
The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.2 per cent on Monday, bringing its gain since the end of June to 4 per cent.
“The market rally has really reminded people why it’s just so hard to walk away from equities,” said Alex Chaloff, chief investment officer at Bernstein Private Wealth Management. “This has been one of the weirdest rallies we’ve ever had . . . [but] equities are still ripping higher.”
For the first five months of 2023, the increase in benchmark indices was driven entirely by the so-called magnificent seven megacap groups — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
…
“‘The government does not want to solve today’s problems by just creating a bigger bubble to deflate in the future,’ said Wei He at Gavekal Dragonomics.”
Have hair-of-the-dog hangover cures gone out of fashion?
Economy
China is teetering on the brink of deflation. That’s a huge red flag for the global economy.
George Glover
Jul 11, 2023, 8:37 AM PDT
Congested city intersection with many shops and digital billboards
Shenzhen, China. Tuul & Bruno Morandi/Getty Images
– China is teetering on the brink of deflation – where prices fall, rather than rise.
– Its central bank has cut interest rates in a scramble to prop up sputtering growth.
– Essentially, it’s the opposite of what’s happening in the US – and that could be a huge red flag for the global economy.
…
China Economy
China’s risk of deflation is ‘serious’ — one economist says it’s ‘time to act’
Published Tue, Jul 18 2023 1:17 AM EDT
Updated Tue, Jul 18 2023 4:24 AM EDT
Clement Tan
Key Points
– China producer prices suggest deflationary price pressures seen in upstream sectors, Grow Investment Group’s chief economist Hong Hao said.
– Nominal GDP growth is lower than real GDP growth in Q2, Pinpoint Asset Management’s chief economist Zhang Zhiwei said.
– The second quarter GDP growth data is first time since the second quarter of 2020 that the GDP deflator has turned negative, Macquarie’s Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang said.
…
China Economy
China should act decisively to pull ‘sputtering’ economy back from the brink, says Cornell professor
Published Tue, Aug 1 2023 2:01 AM EDT
Updated Tue, Aug 1 2023 2:13 AM EDT
Sumathi Bala
Key Points
– China’s authorities need to take decisive policy action to bring the “sputtering” economy back from the brink, according to Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University.
– Beijing doesn’t want to send a signal that it is in “panicky mode yet,” as policymakers want to show confidence that “they can manage the economic situation,” he added.
– “But the grim reality, at this stage is that it is going to take a fairly broad and decisive policy package with both short term and long term measures to pull the economy back from the brink,” Prasad told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia,” on Tuesday.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/china-should-act-to-pull-sputtering-economy-back-from-brink-professor-.html
Do you remember when Japanese government authorities tried to rescue their economy from a collapsed property bubble during the 1990s?
I do. The rescue failed.
across the pond:
On Monday evening, Mr Farage revealed that has received a letter from Interim CEO of Coutts, Mohammad Kamal Syed with a peace offering of sorts, saying it would no longer close his personal and business accounts after it was revealed that the bank had closed them down over his political views, friendships with political figures such as Donald Trump, and even his Twitter posts.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/08/01/coutts-cancels-closure-of-farages-account-in-bid-to-end-scandal/
‘We don’t want sellers to put their house on the market, get zero or below-asking bids, and then have to keep lowering and lowering,’
If it worked for tulip bulbs, why not use Dutch auction to sell real estate?
School is starting which means our real estate taxes are going to work ….over 20K per Kid, per year, and they learn very little ,that they can use in real life ….How did this get so out of hand, over the past 40 years , don’t think the teachers are paid that much, maybe 50 plus K per year , no one knows where it’s all going, and the results are so poor, its laughable….
they took away shop class where you learned to use your hands to fix things…..sad parents just let it happen.
Lack of shop classes is why we’re $1.6T in student debt: Mike Rowe
https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/mike-rowe-dirty-jobs-shop-class-student-debt
no one knows where it’s all going
I’m sure the school district has plenty six figure “administrators”, who attend meetings but do little else.
‘Market studies suggest that Chicago’s office buildings have lost 50% of their value, and we estimate that almost half of Chicago’s office buildings are in some state of financial distress,’
Ouch! Who owns these?
Pension funds. A shlonging is coming.
“The median price of a detached home in Marin has dipped to $1.7 million, a year-over-year decline of nearly 10%, according to the latest data from the county assessor’s office. The figure was down from $1.8 million in May and the prior peaks of more than $2 million in April and May of 2022.”
So down $300,000 since May 2022?
Throw in some leverage and we are talking about MASSIVE losses in percentage terms.
Anyone who bought near the top and put 20% down has lost 75% of their equity. Leverage works both ways
“What many people don’t realize is just because a person has equity in their home, it doesn’t necessarily mean they can make the payment on it.’”
Amen.
If you have equity but you can no longer make the payment, for whatever reason, that’s a signal to sell. Being “underwater” is a recent phenom. Thanks, no-money-down mortgages!
And the FHA game where closing costs get rolled into the loan. That’s around a 103% loan. And these are all cases where the buyer for whatever reason went out of their way to put zero cash in at purchase. FHA is subprime by definition.
And the FHA game where closing costs get rolled into the loan. That’s around a 103% loan.
Have you heard about the 160% loan to value auto loans? Unreal.
Unreal and unsustainable.
“Have you heard about the 160% loan to value auto loans?”
That’s financing meant to also cover your upside-down trade-in that still has an outstanding balance that will be rolled into the new car loan.
I was reviewing foreclosure notice data for Phoenix the other day to see how it looked back in 2008. Everything was mostly fine thru 2007 and then a massive spike occurred starting in 2008. Notices went on to peak in the 70k range! I would think we can at least match if not beat that this time.
It takes time for interest rates and insolvency to wring people out but we can compare the cycles and see that it is coming. I believe next year is the year the real credit crunch occurs and the spike becomes undeniable; we are currently right near the base of it. In future hindsight some of the worst deals to be made will have occurred this summer. I’m seeing some real head scratchers around here lately.
Someone has to make idiot deals at the top, even buying at yesteryears pricing when things have already dropped. I managed to sell I home in late ‘06 at peak pricing when the peak was clearly past us in the area we were in. I tried to do the “never give a sucker an even break” thing, but I did feel a bit guilty knowing the rectal destruction he was about to experience. But there are plenty of idiots at this point of a bust who will be completely blind to what’s going on around them. They might as well buy my house. Call it an education.
Purchased by Ugly Ducking Renovations for 82K in 2018. Recent price reduction to 190K. Admittedly, the renovations look very nice. However, you still have a 116 year old wood house in a tiny impoverished town on the border of Florida / Alabama. Perhaps you can get insurance coverage, but I doubt it. Purchase this property and your termites can get it on with the neighbors termites. For employment opportunities, there’s a state prison nearby.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7501-Jefferson-Ave-Century-FL-32535/44708440_zpid/
The price is not terribly out of line with that tiny neighborhood, and it could be a lot worse. But unless there’s a specific reason to be in that area and you have a family to fill the house, there are better places to spend $200K. The house is nice but not of any particular historic architectural value.
And that’s becoming a real issue here is the US. There are, IMO, just too many century-old houses houses that aren’t worth the price to renovate. It’s no accident that the flipper shows ONLY last in high-price locales like California or maybe Vegas, where it’s worth it to pay $400K and do $100K of renovation of a relatively new house. For the rest of flyover, you would almost do better to tear down and toss up a well-built pre-fab.
That town is in the middle of nowhere. Per capita income is $10,000. Median household income is $20,700 with 30% of the population living below the poverty line.
Someone thinks that a house in this town is worth $200,000?? This is the kind of place that you don’t even stop to get gas.
“That town is in the middle of nowhere.”
It certainly looks that way.
CNBC — From Washington to Warsaw, a ‘greenlash’ is picking up steam despite extreme heat (8/1/2023):
“In the wake of a U.S. crusade against mission-driven investments, signs of a green political backlash in Europe appear to be gathering pace.
State laws restricting the use of environmental, social and governance factors have swept across the U.S. in recent months, fomenting uncertainty for an increasing range of businesses.
A pushback against climate policies is not just a U.S. issue. In Europe, indications of a green backlash — or “greenlash” — have started surfacing as businesses and citizens feel the costs of the energy transition.
Dutch farmers have been staging protests over stringent limits on nitrogen emissions, with the BBB or BoerBurgerBeweging (Farmer-Citizen Movement) party lashing out at what it sees as a policy that symbolizes “everything that is not going right” in the country.
In Poland, the conservative government recently filed four complaints against EU climate policies, calling them “authoritarian” and a potential threat to its energy security. Ruling party leader Jarosław Kaczyński described the bloc’s green policies as “madness” and akin to “green communism.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/01/extreme-heat-a-green-backlash-is-sweeping-across-the-us-and-europe.html
Roll the guillotines. Send Klaus Schwab and his effeminate cvck buddies straight to f**king hell where they belong.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/ford-set-lose-billion-electric-vehicles-year-despite-increased-revenue
They can set all the rules that they want, but that doesn’t mean the public will play along. Nobody is buying EVs because they are a rip-off. And the burning car transport ship off the Dutch coast is forcing the EV crowd to admit that EVs are dangerous just sitting parked!
Soon, no shipping company is going to accept an EV on their ships. No EVs in long tunnels. No EVs in underground parking garages. All it will take is for one EV to catch fire in an apartment building garage and burn the place down (along with some occupants). Let the lawsuits fly!
Go ahead and plug one in to the charger in your garage, right under the kid’s bedroom!
plug one in to the charger in your garage
Thankfully, OneAgainstMany is LONG gone.
From Bankrate. “In May of this year, ATTOM recorded a sharp uptick in foreclosure rates around the United States.”
“‘The lifting of all COVID-19 related moratoriums that have finally unclogged the pipeline of distressed properties,’ said Kristen D. Conti, the co-chairwoman of Default Industry Leaders.”
“‘Those people who chose to take advantage of programs where they could not pay their mortgages and put the payments on the back end of the loan are now faced with homes whose prices are leveling out and they find themselves underwater.’”
– There were mortgage and rent moratoria during and after the CCP virus pandemic, and some may still be continuing in deep blue states and cities (?), as the weak-minded continue to vote for this garbage, since “free rent.”
– Most of the OECD countries, including the U.S., have moved solidly left towards Socialism with centrally planned, command and control economies. Free markets, private property rights, and contract law have worked fine for generations, but there are too few opportunities for graft and corruption.
– U.S. government at all levels found an excuse to grab power due to the CCP virus pandemic and enacted policies that suspended said free markets, private property rights, and contract law, all under the pretext of altruism and egalitarianism.
– These moratoria deferred, but didn’t eliminate said mortgage and rent payments, so the accumulated balances were still due at the end of the deferment period. This was both pandering to their base voters and “can-kicking” of the problem down the road.
– Now that the moratoria have been, or are being lifted, these deferred payments are coming due. Imagine that.
– This all started when those in power – and wanting more power, as has been the pathology throughout history – enacted lockdowns that prevented people from working at their jobs, or just shut down small to medium enterprices (SMEs) completely. This was the plan to grab power and at the same time reduce their political enemies; those that are independent, free-thinking, and conservative.
– So here we are. The result is further consolidation of government power and control, with a commensurate loss in economic and civil freedoms. For example: Your government now wants to ban gas stoves, water heaters, and ICE autos, among other draconian and totalitarian measures.
– I can’t think of any government pandemic responses and policies that were beneficial to the 90%. This includes PPP loans and the ERC, which were and are continuing blatant fraud, and not to mention all of the excess monetary and fiscal stimulus that directly caused the 40 year high inflation that we’re still experiencing.
– Bidenomics, or the continuing expansion of the Federal government (public sector) is only going to burden and hamstring the Main St. economy (private sector) and reduce economic growth, wealth, and prosperity for the 90%, while at the same time – as seen during the pandemic – transferring wealth and power to the 10%.
– The “invisible hand” of free markets, via individual self-interests and competition, along with limited rules to prevent trusts and monopolies (think referee), is sufficient to keep a nation’s economy running well. Expansions and contractions are a normal part of the economic cycle, but are only made worse by government (including central bank) interventions.
– One would think that government would have learned at least something about the error of their ways due to the unexpected and not so transitory high inflation, but Congress continues to spend well beyond OUR means (i.e. taxpayers) if the current budget deficits are any indication. The transition from Constitutional Republic to Banana Republic continues apace.
“the plan to grab power and at the same time reduce their political enemies; those that are independent, free-thinking, and conservative.”
Marxist globalists do not want to merely “reduce” you, they want you dead, especially if you are white and Christian.
The South China Morning Post. “‘… But we also have no plans to invest in new properties. Profits in our industry are becoming flat … and investing in real estate is even becoming less profitable [and] much more risky.’”
“‘China is facing pressure to realise economic growth at 5 per cent,’ said Mao Zhenghua, director of the Institute of Economic Research at Renmin University. ‘At the same time, it has to bear dual shocks at home and abroad. We need arduous efforts to reverse the downward trend of economic growth over the medium to long term. We are going to face a more complicated economic situation over the long run. We are paying the price for the property bubble, which saw persistent price hikes over the years, and this is the only way for China to reduce its reliance on real estate. I do not think any measures are available to remake it as a pillar of the economy,’ Mao said.”
“Meanwhile, most analysts expect that regulators will continue to refrain from strong stimulus measures, amid concerns that these could further inflate the property bubble. ‘The government does not want to solve today’s problems by just creating a bigger bubble to deflate in the future,’ said Wei He at Gavekal Dragonomics.”
– This is the problem faced by most nations today. They looked to “the property market” as the primary engine of economic growth, fueled by high levels of debt and leverage. This is the very definition of a global property bubble.
– The central banks of the world, along with fiat currencies, enabled this government policy, since central banks are just another branch of government. In the U.S., the Fed is the fourth branch of government, where the Deep State/Administrative/Unelected State is the fifth branch.
– Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Governments have painted their national economies into the proverbial corner, all the time drinking to Keynesian Kool-Aid of debt-fueled growth. Meanwhile the majority of their people suffer: China as 20+% unemployment. The U.S. has a litany of problems. Canada and Australia are going into a major housing bust and economic contraction. The Eurozone is already in recession. They’ve already tried inflation. Is another World War on the horizon?
“How did you go bankrupt?”
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” – Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.” – Ernest Hemingway
Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt. – Mark Twain
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” – Mark Twain
Discovered a couple of people in my town who hadn’t taken the jab. We decided to meet for a beer and form the Pure Blood Beer Club. Our first outing was to see the “Sound of Freedom”, which was an excellent movie. It actually left me feeling hopeful.
A reader sent these in:
Driving down from the Muskoka’s …or sale signs everywhere. What happened?!? Literally been driving 1 hour and I’ve seen maybe 50 for sale signs. Nobody is ready. 😳
https://twitter.com/ManyBeenRinsed/status/1685693042689232896
Big ass commission offerings all over. This only means one thing …I smell🩸
https://twitter.com/ManyBeenRinsed/status/1685423827784790022
1. The GFC was caused by speculation, we had more speculation in 2021 than any year in historry
2. They said the same exact things about 5% rates in 2007 as they are about 3% rates today
3. Free and clear has been around 40% for decades, nothing new and the vast majority are in low priced fly over states.
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1685857357912522752
PSA: real estate isn’t all puppy dogs and sunshine. We’re in the middle of eviction proceedings at one of our units. The tenant owes us $12,700.
https://twitter.com/heIpfullandlord/status/1685819322004815872
US has hit a fiscal wall. 14% of tax revenues payed away in interest payments. This has ALWAYS and INVARIABLY led to a fiscal tightening. Party over folks. And the bond market knows!
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1686069504835469312
Job postings on Indeed. Allah Akbar!
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1686064477173661711
Another new high in the BTFP program. The occasional reminder:
There has been zero corrective activity in markets since this liquidity program was launched on the day of the March lows.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1684907118485221376
Just met a 22-year-old cop at a bar. He owns 3 AirBnBs in a remote part of Massachusetts that he financed with adjustable-rate mortgages at 2.75% in 2021. He only put 3% down. It is worse than you may think, folks.
https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1685476218190045184
Households’ net worth is contracting only for the 4th time ever since 1990
https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1685651458664857600
Three Texas cities in the top 7 😳 Has Texas peaked?
https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1685819415789486080
BANK OF JAPAN ANNOUNCES UNSCHEDULED BOND BUYING OPERATION
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1685820377123971073
Less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. ceased all operations at 12 p.m. Sunday, according to a notice on the gates at its terminals.
https://twitter.com/FreightWaves/status/1685756597929189376
Basement rents going ⬇️
https://twitter.com/ManyBeenRinsed/status/1686193068448301056
Remember when Toronto desperately wanted to be Manhattan. The manhattanization of Toronto is what they sold you on.
https://twitter.com/ManyBeenRinsed/status/1686066727367426063
Gonna one day tell my kids they said immigration would support high housing prices. 👇🏽 This was 1.6M during 2022 peak.
https://twitter.com/ManyBeenRinsed/status/1685990727216480257
From the lawyer’s office: New Build appraisal is over 600k off from the purchase price ($1.6 mil). This is the second time this month that I have turned to a trustee instead of a mortgage agent to assist a client. Things… are changing quickly out there.
https://twitter.com/MarkinMetaForm/status/1686182999249805312
Trudeau has given up. In 2015 he promised more affordable homes. He’s had HOUSING MINISTERS. Even a Minister of the Middle Class. Today he said “Not My Problem, Suck it up, Stupids”. In my life I’ve never witnessed such incompetence from a federal government.
https://twitter.com/schtaunk/status/1686122976444571653
This is what retail sales data looks like when you print $4 trillion and hand it out. Everyone spends the money, consumer spending falls at a historic pace and then the world pays the price with 40-year high inflation. There’s no such thing as “free” money.
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1686082377917865985
This is BEFORE a trillion dollars in student loan debt is turned back on.
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1686098457214504960
“Just met a 22-year-old cop at a bar. He owns 3 AirBnBs”
Yeah, but how many AirBnBs did the shoeshine boy buy?
And I can about guarantee this too is fraud. No way you get conforming loan rates on any investment property, let alone three. First you need someone who’s brokering to several wholesale lenders. Then what likely happened here is they called all of these properties his primary residence at origination. And if you close them all within 90 days of each other it’s hard for the underwriters of the different lenders to catch what’s going on. They all think they’re getting a primary residence loan. You can use the same credit report for all, and even if the wholesaler pulls their own CR, the excuse to use is they were shopping the loan to other brokers and banks, therefore the reasons for the extra inquiries. But here’s the other thing – underwriters don’t want to know! They might suspect it, but if it looks good on paper they don’t care. Bundle it and sell it. Not much has changed since last time. How do I know? I was a broker from ‘98 to ‘08. I knew a LO who did this with someone in ‘04 in Hesperia Ca for 5 houses closing at once in two new subdivisions there. All were closed showing each was the borrower’s primary residence, allowing the borrower to get the lowest possible conforming rate on each.
+1
I don’t understand why the Biden Regime allows so much mass immigration and lets places like NYC get destroyed. They’re doing this on purpose. They’re intentionally ruining places by letting in millions of unvetted illegal immigrants in some long term ploy to make them all citizens so they vote Democrat, as if the 75,000,000 conservative voters are merely a nuisance to their plan. The utter depravity of this terrible plan, with all sorts of untold and unforeseeable consequences, really just seems like folly too me. The immigration is the one issue that really destroys the fabric of america because it’s so chaotic and depraved like this
It is one prong in their attack to destroy the country. The sexual depravity, race baiting, fomenting hatred between generations and groups. Once every thing collapses then these Marxists will erect their replacement government and system.
Joe Biden has been known to look right into the camera and say as clearly as he can that he is a zionist. (yes, he really says it) He also made it as clear as he could before the election that he wanted an unending stream of immigration. None of what is occurring is an accident and he was very clear about what he intended to do. The only surprising thing is how easily he gets away with it all.
Revolver News linked from Wall Street Silver (7/31/2023):
“China’s 15-minute cities have a cleverly diabolical design feature. These cities accommodate tens of thousands of people within these expansive areas, yet they only offer a couple of exit points where everyone must scan their QR code for entry and exit. The clever and diabolical part is that this enables governments to not only closely monitor everyone, but it also gives authorities the ability to swiftly lock down massive groups of people with just a few simple moves. It’s all very dystopian, but presented like an oasis.
The left-wing propaganda surrounding China’s 15-Minute Cities is shameless. They actually call these little prisons “life circles”
https://www.revolver.news/2023/07/chinas-15-minute-cities-have-one-very-diabolical-design-feature/
If the Marxist globalists get their way, “climate” lockdowns coming soon to the USA.
You’re not gonna vote your way out of this. In the absence of orders, find something communist, and kill it ☠️
You’re not gonna vote your way out of this. In the absence of orders, find something communist, and kill it ☠️
LMFAO.
“Trudeau has given up. In 2015 he promised more affordable homes. He’s had HOUSING MINISTERS. Even a Minister of the Middle Class. Today he said “Not My Problem, Suck it up, Stupids”. In my life I’ve never witnessed such incompetence from a federal government.”
\\
– I dunno. Pres. Biden is much worser in my view, and not to mention numerous falling down episodes, gaffes, VP Kamala, etc.
\\
This is 1 year old news, and a lot has happened since then…
https://thefederalist.com/2022/07/15/11-of-the-biden-administrations-greatest-failures-so-far/
Politics
11 Of The Biden Administration’s Greatest Failures So Far
By: Beth Whitehead
July 15, 2022
5 min read
1. Facilitating a Deadly Border
2. Shipping Illegals to a Community Near You
3. Holding Kids Hostage to Trans Radicalism
4. Tapping into Emergency Petroleum Reserves
5. Botching the Afghanistan Withdrawal
6. Supporting Child Castration and Sterilization
7. Driving up Inflation
8. Letting Babies Go Hungry
9. Forcing the Covid Jab
10. Scheming to Enact Abortion Radicalism
11. Tanking His Own Approval
\\
– Here’s an update from July, 2023…
https://www.heritage.org/progressivism/commentary/6-failures-bidens-presidency-year-2
COMMENTARY Progressivism
6 Failures of Biden’s Presidency in Year 2
Jan 24, 2023 13 min read
1.) Immigration Chaos
2.) Ballooning Debt
3.) Inflation
4.) Woke Administrative State
5.) Specter of Scandal [mishandling of classified docs., Hunter Biden, etc.]
6.) No Return to Normalcy
\\
– I probably missed quite a bit here, but this quote is evergreen:
“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f*ck things up.” – Barack Obama
\\
THE COUNTRY’S IN THE VERY BEST OF HANDS
From the Musical “Lil’ Abner” (1956)
(Gene de Paul / Johnny Mercer)
Recorded by: Percy Faith; Shelly Manne;
Peter Palmer; André Previn.
Them city folks and we-uns are pretty much alike,
Though they ain’t used to living in the sticks.
We don’t like stone or cement, but we is in agreement
When we gets down to talkin’ politics:
The country’s in the very best of hands,
the best of hands, the best of hands.
[Note: the above two lines are interspersed among
all the verses and wherever else needed.]
The Treasury says the national debt is climbing to the sky
And government expenditures have never been so high.
It makes a feller get a gleam of pride within his eye,
to see how our economy expands,
The country’s in the very best of hands.
You ought to see the congress when it’s drawing up a bill,
“Where as”‘s and “to wit”‘s are crowded in each codicil.
Such legal terminology would give your heart a thrill.
There’s phrases there that no one understands.
The country’s in the very best of hands.
The building boom, they say, is getting bigger every day.
And when I asked a feller “How could everybody pay?”
He come up with an answer that made everything OK,
“Supplies are getting bigger than demands.”
The country’s in the very best of hands.
Don’t you believe them congressmen and senators are dumb.
When they run into problems that are tough to overcome,
They just declare a thing they calls a moritorium.
The upper and the lower house disbands.
The country’s in the very best of hands.
The voters are connected to the nominee,
the nominee’s connected to the treasury.
When they ain’t connected to the treasury,
They sits around on their thigh bones.
Them GOP’s and Democrats each hates the other one.
They’s always criticizing how the country should be run.
But neither tells the public what the other’s gone and done.
As long as no one knows where no one stands,
The country’s in the very best of hands.
The money that they taxes us, that’s known as revenues,
They compound up collaterals, subtracts the residues.
Don’t worry ’bout the principle and interest that accrues,
They’re shipping all that stuff to foreign lands,
The country’s in the very best of hands.
Households’ net worth is contracting only for the 4th time ever since 1990
What/How? The S&P’s total return YTD is up over 20%. Almost everyone I know has a 401K even if it a small one. They all have to be up.
Wait until the stock ,arket crashes, then we will see some carnage.
What’s Actually Happening At U.S.-Mexico Border Is MIND BLOWING!
The Jimmy Dore Show
Aug 1, 2023
There’s a tremendous amount of hyperbole and emotion surrounding the border crisis, but what’s really going on? To find out, presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. traveled to Yuma, Arizona and spoke with border guards as well as migrants themselves, and what he learned was nothing short of shocking.
Jimmy and RFK Jr. discuss the myths associated with the border situation and the revelations that criminal cartels are actually in charge of U.S. immigration policy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or-nL97vwU0
18:21.
‘The median price of a detached home in Marin has dipped to $1.7 million, a year-over-year decline of nearly 10%, according to the latest data from the county assessor’s office. The figure was down from $1.8 million in May and the prior peaks of more than $2 million in April and May of 2022’
Donkey math right there.
‘said median prices are just one metric to gauge the state of the market. She said comparing them to a year ago, when the market was in a frenzy, gives a distorted view of conditions now…’We have to remember, 2022 was nuts’
Pat is right about one thing: we’ve all agreed to not speak of 2021 and 2022.
‘In terms of Marin’s mentality and expectations, any planet that was getting 42% of properties over asking would say we’re in high grass’
By now Pat, even the hobos pissing on yer tesla know the bay aryan UHS manipulate stats and price to encourage bidding wars. And are failing 68% of the time.
‘Those people who chose to take advantage of programs where they could not pay their mortgages and put the payments on the back end of the loan are now faced with homes whose prices are leveling out and they find themselves underwater’
Minor respiratory illness strikes again, sound lending!
Sounds like the early 2000s subprime mortgage lending crisis strikes again!
Are Further Price Declines Expected In Toronto Real Estate? – July 26
Team Sessa Real Estate
Aug 1, 2023 CANADA
Toronto Real Estate Market Report for the week of July 20 – July 26, 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdaVuRbaY_w
18:12.
Once Upon a Time in the West – The Danish National Symphony Orchestra & Tuva Semmingsen (Live)
DR Koncerthuset
Jan 26, 2018
Man with a Harmonica & Cheyenne & Main Titles
Composed by Ennio Morricone
Harmonica: Hans Ulrik
Vocals: Tuva Semmingsen
Conducted by Sarah Hicks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efdswXXjnBA
8:48.
Long John Baldry – “Don’t Try To Lay No Boogie-Woogie On The King of Rock & Roll”
Jul 23, 2013
From Baldry’s 1971 album, “It Ain’t Easy.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj_lZ4hkJd8
6:46.
Are interest rates FINALLY headed back down after a protracted period of elevation?
Bond Report
30-year Treasury yield ends at almost nine-month high amid signs of tight U.S. labor market
Last Updated: Aug. 1, 2023 at 3:54 p.m. ET
First Published: Aug. 1, 2023 at 5:56 a.m. ET
By Vivien Lou Chen
Referenced Symbols
TMUBMUSD02Y 4.916%
TMUBMUSD10Y 4.032%
TMUBMUSD30Y 4.095%
One- through 30-year Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, pushing the rate on the long bond to its highest since last November, after U.S. data pointed to a still-strong labor market.
What happened
– The yield on the 2-year Treasury TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.916% rose 3.8 basis points to 4.912% from 4.874% on Monday.
– The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 4.032% jumped 9.2 basis points to 4.048% from 3.956% Monday afternoon. Tuesday’s level is the highest since March 2, based on 3 p.m. figures from Dow Jones Market Data.
– The yield on the 30-year Treasury TMUBMUSD30Y, 4.095% advanced 8.8 basis points to 4.104% from 4.016% late Monday. Tuesday’s level is the highest since Nov. 9.
What drove markets
Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. job openings dipped to 9.6 million in June — signaling that the labor market still remains quite tight — and that the number of workers who quit in June decreased to 3.8 million from 4 million in May.
A strong jobs market is seen as likely to contribute to inflationary pressures and put pressure on the policy-setting Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated. More U.S. labor-related data is expected to arrive over the next few days, including Wednesday’s ADP private-sector jobs report for July, weekly initial unemployment claims on Thursday, and July’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
In other data released on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index rose slightly to 46.4% in July from 46% previously, yet manufacturers remain mired in a slump. And construction spending was up 0.5% in June after a revised 1.1% gain in the prior month.
Markets are pricing in a 82.5% probability that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.5% on Sept. 20, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike to a range of 5.5%-5.75% at the subsequent meeting in November is priced at 30.5%.
The central bank is mostly expected to take its fed funds rate target back down to around 5% or even lower by next May.
Meanwhile, the Treasury Department’s $1 trillion borrowing estimate for the third quarter is raising questions about the extent to which foreign and domestic buyers can continue to keep up their demand for U.S. government debt.
What analysts are saying
“The labor market is key for the Fed and the current economic outlook. It appears some cooling conditions are at hand, but wages are still not sufficiently cool,” said George Mateyo, chief investment officer of Key Private Bank, which manages $50.2 billion in assets.
“The impact of recent economic data and central bank decisions on the U.S. fixed-income markets has been fairly muted on the front end of the yield curve,” Mateyo wrote in an email.
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-stalled-ahead-of-jobs-data-barrage-da8298f0
Yahoo
Reuters
TREASURIES-US long bond yields rise to year-high ahead of Treasury refunding
Davide Barbuscia
Tue, August 1, 2023 at 12:17 PM PDT·4 min read
(Updates prices, adds Barclays note, context, investor comments) * Yields push higher despite weaker data * 30-year hits year-high * Treasury issuance slated to increase in coming quarters * Bank of Japan’s policy shift supports U.S. yields By Davide Barbuscia NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters)
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday with 30-year paper touching a new year-high as investors expected an increase in government debt issuance and anticipated more signs of economic resilience, despite data showing a slowdown in activity. U.S. manufacturing appeared to stabilize at lower levels in July amid a gradual improvement in new orders, data showed on Tuesday, but factory employment dropped to a three-year low, suggesting that layoffs were accelerating. U.S. job openings, meanwhile, fell to the lowest level in more than two years in June, but remained at levels consistent with tight labor market conditions despite hefty interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve. “Most of the data could be viewed as good news for the Fed, with the labor market continuing to weaken and manufacturing activity that might be bottoming out. This supports the idea that the disinflation process is here,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. “But we still could see so much resilience in this economy that could prove to be troubling for the disinflation process later this year.”
U.S. Treasury benchmark 10-year yields rose to 4.047% – nine basis points above Monday’s levels. Two-year yields, which are more closely linked with monetary policy expectations, added four basis points to 4.912%. The 2/10 curve, which compares two- and 10-year yields and is a harbinger of an upcoming recession when that spread is negative, stood at minus 86.5 basis points – the least inverted it has been since mid-July. On the long end of the curve, 30-year yields rose to 4.104%, the highest since November of last year. Yields, which move inversely to prices, had dropped after Tuesday’s economic data but bounced back as investors maintained a bearish tone ahead of Wednesday’s refunding announcement by the Treasury, which could reveal larger coupon auction sizes. Its latest financing estimates implied a sharp increase in bond and notes issuance in the coming quarters, Barclays analysts said in a note, warning that this could work against a rally in bonds as the Fed nears the end of its tightening cycle. Additional support for yields came from the Bank of Japan’s recent shift in its yield curve control policy, which will allow interest rates to move more freely. “Yields may have to recalibrate in the United States for potentially higher Japanese yields, there is a search for a new equilibrium that I think will be playing out over the next several months,” said Chip Hughey, Managing Director, Fixed Income at Truist Advisory Services. Investors will keep a close eye on Friday’s July jobs report to assess the impact of higher borrowing costs on the labor market and, next week, the July Consumer Price Index report to see how convincingly price pressures are subsiding.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasuries-us-long-bond-yields-191725151.html
Another phony DJT indictment for the phony Fed-surrection January 6th riot this time.
Attorney General Merrick Garland (phony Anglo name) is a domestic terrorist. And he is most certainly not a Christian.
Henry Ford was right about all of this, a century ago.
These Marxist globalists have no place in the United States. And their existence will not be tolerated in the future Christian Nationalist Homeland.
Warrior Christ, because it sure as f* wasn’t the Romans who killed Jesus…