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Homes For Sale With Prices That Have Taken A Real Nosedive Lately

A report from Deseret News. “Utah’s housing prices are still down compared to last year. Year over year price declines span across all Wasatch Front counties — Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, Tooele and Weber — but the biggest drops were seen in the multi-family sector of Davis County, where the median price dipped over 11.5% from June of last year, and the single-family home sector of Tooele County, were the median price dropped 11.8% year over year.”

The Santa Barbara Independent in California. “‘Sales Down 34 Percent’ makes for an attention-grabbing headline, but it only tells half of our local real estate market story this year. Our market is cooling down slightly, and not all homes are selling right away or attracting multiple offers. Some good news for buyers: Yes, prices are down slightly. The median price for South Coast homes is $2,130,000, which is down approximately 5.3 percent from one year ago. The double-digit, year-over-year price increase trajectory since 2020 was not sustainable. Following the surge in prices in the past few years, directly related to pandemic migration to our beautiful environs, buyers have now become value-sensitive, and sellers have had to temper their previous over-exuberance in pricing. Sellers who price their homes too high initially are faced with reducing their prices to recapture attention, which is often tough to do.”

The Real Deal on Texas. “Angry investors and a condo community are taking legal action against StoryBuilt, shedding light on the Austin developer’s financial struggles amid a recent leadership shakeup. Three lawsuits have been filed against StoryBuilt this year, seeking more than $1.5 million in monetary relief, plus non-monetary relief, the Austin Business Journal reported. The lawsuits suggest that StoryBuilt, founded as PSW Real Estate, has been in hotter water than people realized. Less than two weeks ago, co-founder Anthony Siela disclosed the firm’s plans to furlough much of its staff after failing to capitalize on its large-scale growth goals.”

“The first lawsuit this year, filed on Jan. 18 in Travis County, came from Eastline Condominium Community Inc., which manages the condo complex at 2002 East 7th Street in Austin. Eastline alleged that 28 units were found to have water damage as a result of StoryBuilt’s negligence. That lawsuit is seeking more than $1 million in damages, interest, attorney fees and court costs. Capstar alleged that StoryBuilt lured it to invest by offering preferred return and profit distributions that would be paid quarterly. After Capstar invested about $500,000 in 100 Class A units in May 2018, StoryBuilt held up its end of the bargain until the fourth quarter of 2019 and has since failed to pay what Capstar is owed, the lawsuit alleged.”

The Palm Beach Post in Florida. “The proposed sale of the unfinished Banyan Cay Resort & Club in West Palm Beach is a bust. Westside Property Investment Company of Denver did not buy the resort for $102.1 million as part of Banyan Cay’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. The deadline to complete the sale was July 31. Westside notified the debtors it was not moving forward with closing on the purchase of the resort, once slated to be a Destination by Hyatt hotel. The property remains unfinished. And it’s unclear what this latest setback could mean for the troubled West Palm Beach hotel and club, especially for nearby residents. The Lands of the President community overlooks Banyan Cay. In addition, residents in an adjacent new single-family community, the Residences at Banyan Cay, by SobelCo, were supposed to be able to use the hotel’s club as part of the purchase of their homes.”

The Star Press in Indiana. “Every time I’ve sat down with economists over the past few months, we have lamented the dismal state of the housing policy discussion. Against stiff competition, it is easily the most poorly informed policy debate in America. Maybe a few facts will help. All of this is transient disequilibrium. It is not a crisis, and it will pass without any government intervention. Home prices are already in retreat and new home construction is planned for next year across much of the country. Across the nation, there are empty office buildings in every major city, offering the opportunity for residential conversion. And, population loss in major cities has prompted broad review of restrictions on new housing.”

“For the past 50 years, we’ve been building homes at about the same rate the population has risen. However, we’ve been eliminating older homes at a tiny pace. That means today there are some 16 million unoccupied homes in the U.S., or more than 11 percent of the full housing stock. Indiana’s share of unoccupied homes are close to 300,000. That is sufficient to fully house all the growth of population in our state so far this century.”

“These Census counts of homes do not include those that appear damaged or unlivable. And, as with any Census estimate, the number may be off a few percent, high or low. But, any housing discussion that ignores the actual Census housing data is a waste of time. Any policy debate that ignores this data is negligent. Too often, we look only at Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data provided by realtors. This is superb data for everything, except for understanding housing supply. For that it is nearly worthless.”

“The problem is that this glut of homes is located in the places that people don’t wish to live. These don’t make it into the MLS listings, because neither the owner nor realtor are willing to pay the cost of listing. That has nothing to do with the quality of the home, or its level of disrepair. Realtors and owners don’t waste time trying to sell homes in many neighborhoods. Most of the 300,000 vacant homes in Indiana that don’t make it into the MLS would sell for several hundred thousand dollars if they could only be moved to Chicago, Boston or Albuquerque.”

“For these homes, we don’t have a housing problem, we have a neighborhood problem. That is the single most important thing to understand in all this debate. The reason new homes aren’t being built in much of the Midwest is because a new home cannot sell for the cost of construction. This isn’t an abstract problem. There are more than a million homes in Indiana alone that’d be worth more disassembled and stacked on a rail car than they are currently assembled in the towns in which they’re located.”

Narcity Canada. “Want to buy a home in Toronto without having to pay the most for your mortgage? Believe it or not that’s still a possibility, and we know just where to help you look. We recently uncovered a number of reduced-price gems on the real estate platform, OJO Home. We’re talking about Toronto homes for sale with prices that have taken a real nosedive lately. The best part? None of them were recently on fire or foreclosed. In fact, they are all in very good condition! Pique your interest? Of course it did, no one hates an easy deal!”

“33 Dolly Varden Boulevard. Original Price: $1,299,000. Reduced Price: $1,099,888. Total savings: $199,000. Address: 61 Rotary, Toronto, ON. Original Price: $1,599,900. Reduced Price: $1,399,000. Total Savings: $201,000. Description: Welcome to a house that’s not just renovated – it’s downright souped-up.”

The Globe and Mail. “Scrutinizing the pronouncements of the Bank of Canada has become a popular summer pastime in the Toronto-area real estate market. These days potential sellers are also trying to read the tea leaves to decide whether they should sell, and when. Andre Kutyan, broker at Harvey Kalles Real Estate, predicts sales in August will be sluggish as people vacation – and brace for the Bank of Canada announcement scheduled for Sept. 6. After the rate hike on July 12, showings and sales slowed down. ‘I think it definitely did pump the brakes on the summer.’ Properties that appeal to a smaller pool of buyers are not receiving the attention they likely would have drawn in the spring. ‘Some of my listings are crickets chirping,’ he said.”

“Munira Ravji, real estate agent with Royal LePage Signature Realty, says she typically sees ‘a bit of hustle and bustle’ before interest rate announcements as buyers with pre-approved mortgage agreements look to sign a deal. Recently, she has seen investors listing their rental properties for sale as they are increasingly squeezed by higher interest rates. Tenants who moved in with discounted rental rates during the pandemic are paying less than the owner would fetch if the property were listed today. ‘The rental rates are not covering their carrying costs,’ Ms. Ravji says.”

“Sellers are become increasingly flexible about the price they’re willing to accept if the offer is firm, she adds. Sellers feel the urgency to find a buyer before the next central bank meeting in September, she says, because another rate hike may be on the table. In the condo segment, many buyers are trying to snag a deal. If a unit seems overpriced, most buyers will pass by without making an offer. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Bank of Canada, she says. Many investors are not waiting to see what happens on Sept. 6. ‘They’re saying, ‘let’s get it on the market right away before the announcement’. Everyone’s very tuned into that.'”

From Intellinews. “Rising borrowing costs and changes in the home subsidy and energy schemes have transformed Hungary’s housing market, which is seeing a sharp contraction after years of boom since the mid-2010s. Prices have begun to retreat in certain segments after years of double-digit growth. Monthly data from real estate broker Duna House showed that home sales in Hungary fell 32% year-on-year to 6,107 in July and by 15% from the previous month. In the January-July period, transactions fell by 40% to just over 50,000. The falling transaction volume is due to sellers’ reluctance to budge on prices, which have begun to consolidate after an unprecedented rally.”

“Home prices in Hungary rose at one of the fastest pace in the EU, up 3-4 fold since the market hit bottom in 2013. Older homes, mainly outside of Budapest, with poor insulation are coming on the market in large numbers and prices have come down in some cases by as much as 10%, albeit from high levels.”

From ABC News. “A record number of Australians are working multiple jobs, as employees try to keep up with a surge in the cost of living. The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated that 947,300 Australians worked multiple jobs in March, in data released yesterday. Shaheryar Khan, from Melbourne’s outer-northern suburbs, is one of them. The project engineer is the sole income earner for his family of five, and has taken on a second job as a rideshare driver to help him meet his rising mortgage repayments and living costs. ‘I have to do this other part-time work, like Uber, to make up for the extra money that I need,’ he told ABC News.”

“‘I started somewhere around $1,600 repayments, and now it has gone up to somewhere close to $3,000, he said. ‘That’s almost unmanageable with one job, with the current job, I can’t sustain that with one salary after also the living expense has gone up as well.’ Mr Khan said he works full-time for his primary job, and then generally does about 20-25 hours as a rideshare driver, making a total of about 60-65 hours of work every week.”

“‘It is a very bad effect on my health,’ he said. ‘I keep working for all the week and then working in the night and sometimes on the weekend — I don’t get that much rest. And obviously the family life as well, because I’m away during the daytime and then night time, when I come back, it’s just an hour, have dinner, go to bed. Then I don’t get much time with the kids over the weekend.'”

From Reuters. “Shares of Evergrande Property Services Group shed 50% of their value on Thursday when trading resumed after 16 months, following the release of its financial results and the end of an investigation into misused funds involving its parent. The property services firm was dragged into financial troubles after its parent, China Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted property developer, became embroiled in a debt crisis in mid-2021 that later spread across the sector.”

“Shares of Evergrande Services had been suspended since March 21, 2022. Its sister company, China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group, resumed trading last week after a 16-month halt, sinking as much as 69% on the first day of trade. The parent’s shares, however, remain suspended. The resumption of trading in all three companies is crucial for Evergrande Group, because its offshore debt restructuring plan includes swapping part of the debt into equity-linked instruments backed by the parent and the two subsidiaries.”

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This Post Has 106 Comments

  1. ‘Angry investors and a condo community are taking legal action against StoryBuilt, shedding light on the Austin developer’s financial struggles amid a recent leadership shakeup. The lawsuits suggest that StoryBuilt, founded as PSW Real Estate, has been in hotter water than people realized’

    Wa happened to my red hotcakes Tony?

  2. ‘The property remains unfinished. And it’s unclear what this latest setback could mean for the troubled West Palm Beach hotel and club, especially for nearby residents. The Lands of the President community overlooks Banyan Cay. In addition, residents in an adjacent new single-family community, the Residences at Banyan Cay, by SobelCo, were supposed to be able to use the hotel’s club as part of the purchase of their homes’

    Gosh, I hope no one overpaid in that environment.

  3. Our market is cooling down slightly, and not all homes are selling right away or attracting multiple offers. Some good news for buyers: Yes, prices are down slightly.

    It’s getting harder & harder for the REIC shills to try to spin away the cratering.

  4. ‘any housing discussion that ignores the actual Census housing data is a waste of time. Any policy debate that ignores this data is negligent. Too often, we look only at Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data provided by realtors. This is superb data for everything, except for understanding housing supply. For that it is nearly worthless’

    That’s gotta make Larry angry.

  5. Sellers who price their homes too high initially are faced with reducing their prices to recapture attention, which is often tough to do.”

    You stick to yer guns, greedheads. Your listing is special, and Shirley a buyer will be along any day now eager to pay your delusional wish price.

    1. I’m seeing a lot of sellers take their listings off the MLS for a few weeks then put it back on at the same price so it shows as a new listing.

      1. Seems like only a few days ago, pick a ridiculous list number, get multiple offers within hours, no contingency, no inspection.

      2. Same here (middle TN).

        Ironically, Zillow seems to retain much of the info, though may still reset DOM (it does display it as a “price reduction”)

  6. Eastline alleged that 28 units were found to have water damage as a result of StoryBuilt’s negligence. That lawsuit is seeking more than $1 million in damages, interest, attorney fees and court costs.

    Condos thrown up by cowboy contractors & Guatemalan craftsmen had structural flaws? Lawsuits against an insolvent company will Shirley put things right.

    1. Nearly every POS home is built like crap by cheap illegal immigrant labor for the past 30 years. My last house was built with regular drywall behind the shower and tub tiles instead of cement board. The drywall warped due to moisture after a few years and the tiles fell off. By saving less than $100, the builder cost me thousands of dollars.

      1. This. And there’s zero pride in their work. Slop it together, finish as fast as possible and move on.

        1. there’s zero pride in their work

          Absolutely my experience as well, outside of the insulation contractor. He did a great job, and was proud/wanted to show off how diligent a job he did (and was p!ssed when the electricians came in and ripped up a bunch of his work)

  7. ‘Some of my listings are crickets chirping’

    Wa happened to my multiple offers Andre?

    ‘Recently, she has seen investors listing their rental properties for sale as they are increasingly squeezed by higher interest rates. Tenants who moved in with discounted rental rates during the pandemic are paying less than the owner would fetch if the property were listed today. ‘The rental rates are not covering their carrying costs’

    These UHS in Toronto always act like this is a new thing. I can’t remember a time when they were cash flow positive. Australia too. They even have it built into their tax code.

  8. San Francisco continues to self-destruct:

    “CNN senior national correspondent Kyung Lah said her rental car was broken into while she was on assignment in Oakland, Calif., on Wednesday, marking the third time in the last year her car has been broken into while she was on assignment in the Bay Area.”

    “While the pair were conducting an interview at city hall, thieves broke into their car and snatched their bags “in under 4 seconds,” despite the crew having hired private security to keep watch.”

    “This time around, an employee for the rental-car company told Lah that of the 250 cars returned to the lot yesterday, 27 had been broken into — more than 10 percent of returned cars.”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/cnn-crew-targeted-by-bay-area-thieves-for-third-time-this-year/

    1. “Back in March, Lah shared that she and CNN producer Jason Kravarik had their bags stolen out of their rental car while on assignment at San Francisco’s city hall for a story about the city’s rampant crime.”

      May the wokeness be with you! LOL

  9. ‘I started somewhere around $1,600 repayments, and now it has gone up to somewhere close to $3,000…It is a very bad effect on my health,’ he said. ‘I keep working for all the week and then working in the night and sometimes on the weekend — I don’t get that much rest. And obviously the family life as well, because I’m away during the daytime and then night time, when I come back, it’s just an hour, have dinner, go to bed. Then I don’t get much time with the kids over the weekend’

    Are you still feeding those rug rats Shaheryar?

    2. I really feel sorry for the people in countries that only offer fake fixed loans. I don’t think I ever would have bought a house without the promise of a 30-year fixed rate.

      1. fake fixed loans

        Actually, they are not fake fixed loans. The rate is fixed. They are short term loans.

        Seems repetitive.

  10. Capstar alleged that StoryBuilt lured it to invest by offering preferred return and profit distributions that would be paid quarterly.

    So if I fail to do a proper due diligence on an “investment,” I can claim I was “lured” to invest, thus avoiding any culpability for my own negligence. I see what you did there, Capstar.

  11. In addition, residents in an adjacent new single-family community, the Residences at Banyan Cay, by SobelCo, were supposed to be able to use the hotel’s club as part of the purchase of their homes.”

    Perhaps a portion of the club’s acreage can be re-purposed as a rubberized asphalt pad where the Residences residents can assemble to stamp their little feet.

  12. That means today there are some 16 million unoccupied homes in the U.S., or more than 11 percent of the full housing stock.

    But…but…muh inventory shortage!

    1. I wonder what was the true cause for the split. I have heard rumors that he is diddling kids.

  14. Hunter Biden allegedly left his $25,000-per-month California rental in a state of disarray — and even stiffed the owner on months of rent, according to a new report.

    Biden, 53, and his wife, Melissa Cohen, 37, rented a sleek property in Venice Beach overlooking the Grand Canal in 2021.

    But quickly, their stay turned out to be a headache for then-owner Jonathan Neman, co-founder and CEO of Sweetgreen, who decided to sell the home last year at a major loss.

    “They were totally disrespectful of Jonathan and [his wife] Leora’s property,” a source alleged to the Daily Mail. “Melissa was rude and entitled. They destroyed the stereo equipment in the home and when someone came to fix it, they were uncooperative. They also left the place dirty.”

    Once Biden and Cohen moved out in 2022, Neman unloaded the three-story home for $3.94 million. He purchased it in 2017 for $4.85 million, records obtained by The Post show. Not only did Neman sell at a loss, but Biden also allegedly owed him three months’ rent equaling $80,000.

    Biden and Cohen only lived in the residence for about six months — meaning they allegedly skipped on 50% of the rent before moving to Malibu.

    https://nypost.com/2023/08/02/hunter-biden-allegedly-trashed-his-venice-beach-rental-home/

    1. “They were totally disrespectful of Jonathan and [his wife] Leora’s property,” a source alleged to the Daily Mail. “Melissa was rude and entitled. They destroyed the stereo equipment in the home and when someone came to fix it, they were uncooperative. They also left the place dirty.”

      I hope Hunter ends up in prison, and his wife finds another pony to ride on social media.

    2. I tell ya, I am REALLY getting tired of this non-stop coverage of perpetual fuk-up Hunter Biden.
      EVERYTHING this guy touches he ruins!
      People. Places. Things. Government.
      It just never, ever stops with this guy.

      Even the ONE positive thing, his “art”, turns out to be another money laundering pay-for-favor scheme.

      as usual.

      for gods sake (and our sanity) either jail him or banish him to the SF Tenderloin to live out his druggie days away from us.

      please, lord in heaven, I can’t take his BS anymore.
      it’s even worse than the 24/7 Kartrashian news cycle.
      and thats saying a lot.

      2. I’d feel a lot better if Hunter actually got the same justice that any other citizen would have gotten.

        1. They will throw Hunter under the bus, until they decide to throw Joe under the bus. Justice has nothing to do with it.

          1. Hubby had second thoughts about dating me back in 2005/2006 because of my views on the judicial system. Suffice it to say, my views have drastically changed since then.

  15. Monthly data from real estate broker Duna House showed that home sales in Hungary fell 32% year-on-year to 6,107 in July and by 15% from the previous month. In the January-July period, transactions fell by 40% to just over 50,000.

    Gosh, I fear the downward trajectory is accelerating. This will make it harder to lure in those legions of eager buyers waiting on the sidelines, per the MSM.

    1. Wages are dirt low in Hungary. $50K US is considered a princely salary over there, usually you have to work for a multinational to get that much, in a professional role. And now with all the uncertainty and rising mortgage rates, I suspect few are taking the plunge.

      Duna House

      Duna is what the Hungarians call the Danube river.

  16. Pardon me for dropping a booger into realtors and sellers greed-spiked punch bowl, but its now August and the back to school, Fall, and holiday season sales slowdown is almost here. In the Pensacola, FL area, there are hundreds and hundreds of brand new houses still for sale even after multiple price reductions and 60+ days on the market. Sellers are still in denial that when interest rates double, list prices have to come down significantly. It’s all about getting the buyer qualified for that 30 year ball-and-chain. I suspect that many builders are getting close to being upside down if they reduce prices too much more. Of course, we’ve seen this movie before and know how it ends.

  18. The only thing I see going up is the cost of popcorn. Better stock up because this is only the second inning. 🍿

    1. I’m looking to invest in a wheelbarrow company as the Fed & Brandon regime hurtle us down the road to Weimar 2.0.

  20. Is it safe to say that US inflation is now fully contained and mortgage rates are headed down to that 5% sweet spot any day now?

    1. Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Markets
      Surging Treasury yields knock global stock markets
      US 10-year borrowing costs rise to nine-month high, undermining confidence in this year’s equity rally
      Montage of the US Treasury building and the logo of the Department of the Treasury
      The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.09 percentage points, extending a rise that began on Wednesday after the US government lifted its issuance target
      Daria Mosolova in London 38 minutes ago

      US Treasury yields climbed to a nine-month high on Thursday as a sell-off in the world’s biggest bond market intensified, delivering a fresh blow to global stock markets.

      The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.09 percentage points to 4.16 per cent, extending a rise that began on Wednesday after the US government lifted its issuance target for the coming quarter in the wake of Fitch’s unexpected downgrade of Washington’s credit rating.

      Piling further pressure on Treasuries, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said he was shorting US 30-year debt, citing “large deficits as far as the eye can see”.

      “It is hard to imagine how the market absorbs such a large increase in supply without materially higher rates,” the Pershing Square chief executive said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
      …

      1. Piling further pressure on Treasuries, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said he was shorting US 30-year debt, citing “large deficits as far as the eye can see”.

        Kinda ballsy given the fed’s past disdain for shorty.

    2. Mortgage Rates
      If mortgage rates fall to 5%, the housing market could get interesting
      Nearly 40% of homeowners with mortgage rates above 5% say they would consider selling within the next three years: Zillow survey
      July 31, 2023, 4:45 pm
      By Sarah Marx

      Homeowners with a mortgage rate above 5% are nearly twice as likely to say that they plan to sell their home than those paying a rate below 5%, according to Zillow’s quarterly survey report.

      Additionally, the survey found that about 80% of mortgage holders reported having a rate of less than 5%, while 90% reported having a rate of less than 6%. Almost one-third reported having a rate of less than 3%.

      Mortgage rates, by first being historically low during the pandemic and then jumping into the 7% range, have incentivized homeowners to stick around instead of moving. As a result, total existing home sales slipped 3.3% in June from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million.

      “We expect mortgage rates may notch down slightly as inflation comes under control, but they are unlikely to return to 5% in the near future,” said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. “That means many homeowners will move only for major life events, like a new baby or retirement. Over time, homeowners will likely accept higher rates as the new normal, but until then, the market could remain challenging for home shoppers, who will see fewer options and higher prices.”
      …
      https://www.housingwire.com/articles/if-mortgage-rates-fall-to-5-the-housing-market-could-get-interesting/

    3. Markets
      Year of the Bond Dashed as Treasuries Set for Worst Week of 2023
      – Hot labor data, glut of looming bond sales are spurring losses
      – Thirty-year yields could rise toward 5.5%, Ackman says
      By Garfield Reynolds, and Mia Glass
      August 3, 2023 at 12:56 AM EDT
      Updated on August 3, 2023 at 9:39 AM EDT

      Long-dated US Treasuries headed for their worst week of the year amid signs of unexpected resilience in the US’s economy and fresh reasons to fret about its ballooning budget deficit.

      The yield on 30-year securities has climbed almost 25 basis points over the past three sessions, returning it to levels last seen in mid-November when inflation was still above 7%, more than double the current rate. Ten-year borrowing costs rose to around 4.13%.
      …

    4. Finance ·Housing
      The mortgage rate shock regains bite just as the housing market enters into the seasonal soft window
      BY Lance Lambert
      August 3, 2023 at 1:29 AM PDT
      The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has ticked back above 7.00%.
      Getty Images

      Entering 2023, the U.S. housing market found its footing across many regions, achieving a semblance of stability after weathering a mild price correction in the second half of 2022. A combination of factors, including mortgage rates slipping below the 6.5% mark, a shortage of available homes for sale, and the seasonal uptick in demand during the early spring months, contributed to this newfound equilibrium.

      However, just as the housing market braces itself for the traditionally subdued fall and winter period, real estate professionals are closely watching the reemergence of a familiar threat: 7% mortgage rates.

      On Tuesday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up to 7.13%. This figure stands in stark contrast to the sunnier days in February when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate got as low as 5.99%. This latest jump puts mortgage rates just below the peak of 7.37% witnessed last October.

      When considering current house price and income levels, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimate that affordability, or rather the lack of affordability, reaches levels comparable to the peak of the housing bubble whenever mortgage rates approach the 7% range.

      This sudden resurgence of 7% mortgage rates prompts a pressing question that now hangs over the housing market: Are we poised for a resumption of month-over-month home price declines, particularly as the market enters the historically subdued fall and winter?
      …
      https://fortune.com/2023/08/03/housing-market-mortgage-rate-shock-regains-bite-heading-into-seasonally-weaker-window/

      1. HousingWire
        Mortgage Rates
        Mortgage rates tilt towards 7% as the 10-year treasury yield jumps
        The 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.90% for the week ending August 3rd, according to Freddie Mac
        August 3, 2023, 1:43 pm
        By Sarah Marx

        Mortgage rates continued to inch towards 7% this week as the 10-year treasury yields climbed past the 4% threshold.

        Investors assessed the state of the U.S. economy after Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S.′ long-term, foreign currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+ on Tuesday. The following day, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would sell off more than $100 billion of long-term securities.

        Some economists say that this development contributed to drive up the 10-year treasury yield to its highest level since November 2022. However, there are differing opinions on this matter. According to HousingWire’s analyst Logan Mohtashami, the stronger labor data had a bigger impact on mortgage rates and the bond market than the sale of long-term securities or the default rating.
        …

    5. Can anyone envision how fooked homeowners and relitters will be if 30-year mortgage rates surpass 8%?

      I cannot. But I do note they are presently closing in on 7.5%.

    6. Updated Thu, Aug 3 2023 11:15 AM EDT
      S&P 500 falls for a second day as yields rise, earnings season continues: Live updates
      Samantha Subin
      Brian Evans

      Stocks moved lower Thursday, continuing Wednesday’s sell-off trend, as Wall Street assessed a rise in interest rates and scrutinized the latest earnings results, offering insight into the health of corporations.

      The S&P 500 slid 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite hovered near the flatline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 95 points, or 0.3%.

      A pop in yields pressured equities, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield trading around 4.1% and its highest level since November 2022. The rise in rates also pressured the real estate sector, which dropped more than 2%, while the Cboe Volatility index spiked to its highest level since June.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

      1. 4.19% is not “around 4.1%”.

        It’s around 4.2%…a big difference in long-term Treasury yield space.

        1. Financial Times
          Markets Briefing Markets
          Surging Treasury yields knock global stock markets
          US 10-year borrowing costs rise to nine-month high, undermining confidence in this year’s equity rally
          Montage of the US Treasury building and the logo of the Department of the Treasury
          The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.09 percentage points, extending a rise that began on Wednesday after the US government lifted its issuance target
          Kate Duguid in New York and Daria Mosolova in London 10 minutes ago

          US Treasury yields climbed to a nine-month high on Thursday as a sell-off in the world’s biggest bond market intensified, knocking global stock markets.

          The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.11 percentage points to 4.19 per cent, extending a rise that began on Wednesday after the US government lifted its issuance target for the coming quarter in the wake of Fitch’s unexpected downgrade of Washington’s credit rating.
          …

    7. It is important to note that last June-July was the steepest increase in y-o-y inflation. So this month’s y-o-y inflation will seem to be lower, but IMHO it will increase again in Nov-Dec this year.

  21. Now that we’re closing in on 8% on 30yr rates, out here in the West average mortgage payment w/ taxes and insurance on median home, assuming 10% down, is now busting through the $4000 per month number. Yep…..totally sustainable.

    1. insurance

      With private insurers having pulled out of California, homeowners here now face triple to quadruple premiums via the California FAIR Plan.

    2. “…busting through the $4000 per month number.”

      The middle-class hamster wheel will have to spin 24/7.

  22. For these homes, we don’t have a housing problem, we have a neighborhood problem. That is the single most important thing to understand in all this debate. The reason new homes aren’t being built in much of the Midwest is because a new home cannot sell for the cost of construction. This isn’t an abstract problem. There are more than a million homes in Indiana alone that’d be worth more disassembled and stacked on a rail car than they are currently assembled in the towns in which they’re located.

    Excellent points. We don’t need goofy gizmos to 3-D print houses to solve the housing “crisis”. We need people with brains and ba!!s who can create livable neighborhoods.

    But can we please stop calling them “homes”. They’re houses. I think we all agree there’s a lot more to a home than just a house.

    1. Maybe we should look to NYC for guidance! Not only have they proven to be good at building a lot of living spaces in cramped areas, the mayor is converting buildings left and right for new arrivals. Yesterday I saw a man with a megaphone there ranting about the evils of capitalism and suggesting a revolution was the only way to fix things so that everyone could have a free home. He only had two followers flanking him but he was preaching directly to the line of ‘asylum seekers’ so perhaps by next week he’ll have a whole flock. They seemed a bit confused though.

      The independent cameraman interviewed some volunteers in the area and they all recommended that someone else should being paying for all of this and soon. The bottom line is we just need more of other people’s money and utopia is possible especially in NYC. However, one of the dusky concerned volunteers did point out the lack of white people in the line showing that only the brown ones are sleeping outside and that this is clearly racisms so we should probably get rid of white people after we take all their money for housing anyone who randomly shows up. These people will happily explain to you that they are the ones with the brains you are seeking, just hook them up with an NGO. Problems solved.

      In other news, the city is considering a ‘temporary’ tent city in Central Park for all the expected new arrivals that are on the way since they can’t find anywhere else to stash them all. I’m sure it will be fine.

    2. “House” implies a single-family detached dwelling with a driveway and a yard. So they have to say “homes” to include rowhomes and condos. The apple-pie connotation of the word “home” is a bonus.

      We don’t need people to build livable neighborhoods. We need companies to build career JOBS in places like Indiana so that employees could take advantage of underused infrastructure. Remote work will help, as will the return of some manufacturing from China.

      1. Oh yes, of course, we need companies, not people. How silly of me to have forgotten, it’s all about corporate profits, not people. And infrastructure, yes we need more government built white-elephant projects necessitating ever more maintenance and taxes and even bigger government, and then if people don’t use the infrastructure we need more corporations and government projects to get them to live there and use the infrastructure, and if they do use the infrastructure then they need to be reprimanded for causing too much pollution and global warming and damage to the planet and then taxed even more. Thanks for setting me straight oxide.

      2. And as far as the homes/houses distinction goes, I thought it was pretty clear from the context that the article was mostly talking about detached houses. If a generic term is needed, “residences” would work.

    1. The house is nice but the price is very high for the area. Do those $25K trailers come with the land, or is it lot rent? Why are the lawns generally so patchy? I would think Florida would have lush yards, even if it’s just weeds.

    1. “A month later, stocks were higher, and yields were lower. Over the following year, stocks rallied as much as 30%, and yields dropped more than 100 basis points.”

      This dude totally misses that the Fed was in full market rescue mode in the reference period.

      It really is different now.

  25. Wall Street Journal — ‘How Do I Do That?’ The New Hires of 2023 Are Unprepared for Work (8/2/2023):

    “The knock-on effect of years of remote learning during the pandemic is gumming up workplaces around the country. It is one reason professional service jobs are going unfilled and goods aren’t making it to market. It also helps explain why national productivity has fallen for the past five quarters, the longest contraction since at least 1948, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

    The shortcomings run the gamut from general knowledge, including how to make change at a register, to soft skills such as working with others. Employers are spending more time and resources searching for candidates and often lowering expectations when they hire. Then they are spending millions to fix new employees’ lack of basic skills.

    Since 2020, when the pandemic began and remote learning moved students out of schools and into virtual classrooms, the pass rates on national certifications and assessment exams taken by engineers, office workers, soldiers and nurses have all fallen.

    Students who were in high-school and college when Covid-19 hit and are now entering the workforce didn’t fare much better. Despite lowered standards at many schools during the pandemic, high-school graduation rates fell. Scores for college admissions exams dropped to the lowest level in three decades.

    Janet Godwin, chief executive of ACT, the nonprofit organization which administers the college admission test of the same name, said more high-school graduates today lack the fundamental academic skills needed for college and the workplace, with low-performing students facing the steepest declines.

    In Covid-19’s aftermath, many college professors restructured curricula for students who lack basic study skills.

    “Reading, writing and critical-thinking skills are not the same as they were in the past,” said Mike Altman, a religion professor at the University of Alabama who said he has narrowed his curriculum to give his students more time to master basics.

    https://archive.fo/ORkht

    Another World Economic Forum success story. Dumb ’em down enough they’ll never recognize the symptoms of their increasing enslavement.

    1. Janet Godwin, chief executive of ACT, the nonprofit organization which administers the college admission test of the same name

      Aren’t most schools no longer requiring SAT/ACT scores from applicants? In the name of Equity, of course.

    2. The shortcomings run the gamut from general knowledge, including how to make change at a register, to soft skills such as working with others.

      This isn’t all that new. Back in 2017 I applied for a job (Verizon) and was called in for an interview. I arrived and introduced myself to the receptionist, who looked about 20. She got on the phone and spoke with someone. She then, without saying a word, got up and walked away. She walked to the elevator banks and turned to see me standing by her desk. She gave me an annoyed look. “You want me to follow you?” I asked. “Yes.” She curtly replied. The rest of the interview svcked, so I stopped it halfway through, told them I thought it would be a poor fit for me (it was a bench seating environment), and thanked them for their time.

      I can only imagine how bad they are now

      1. HOA for a community pool, even for a house that has a pool of its own. Lots of security too. I guess $750/mo is the price of keeping out the junkies from the trailer park.

        1. I’m gonna guess a gated community with an actual guard at the gate and another one patrolling the neighborhood in a golf cart. Plus the clubhouse, lifeguards, tennis courts, etc. And insurance, which in Florida costs an arm and a leg.

  28. On the bottom video at first I thought it was a fumble recovery drill from one of the training camps.

    Joel Fischer 🇺🇸
    @realJoelFischer

    A heartbreaking video of starving Americans taking bread from Gucci.

    Thumbs up Democrats 👍

    https://twitter.com/realJoelFischer/status/1686365631539482624?s=20

    Shannonnn sharpes Burner (PARODY Account)
    @shannonsharpeee
    ·
    Damn they robbed the Gucci store in Beverly Hills 😭😭

    https://twitter.com/shannonsharpeee/status/1686407639474008064?s=20

    1. ‘We are publishing this leaked footage from the Tucker Carlson interview with Steven Sund, sent to us by a whistleblower, in the public interest’

      He he…

      1. The Capitol Hill police chief was conveniently not called before the sham January 6th Select Committee as well.

  32. From the Dumver Post:

    Denver’s new City Council aims to slow, or even reverse, the trend of gentrification

    Reverse gentrification? How will they accomplish that? By paying vibrants to go into neighborhoods armed with spray cans?

  33. ‘The double-digit, year-over-year price increase trajectory since 2020 was not sustainable. Following the surge in prices in the past few years, directly related to pandemic migration to our beautiful environs’

    Minor repository illness strikes again!

    ‘buyers have now become value-sensitive, and sellers have had to temper their previous over-exuberance in pricing. Sellers who price their homes too high initially are faced with reducing their prices to recapture attention, which is often tough to do’

    via GIPHY

  34. ‘After Capstar invested about $500,000 in 100 Class A units in May 2018, StoryBuilt held up its end of the bargain until the fourth quarter of 2019 and has since failed to pay what Capstar is owed, the lawsuit alleged’

    Fourth quarter of 2019? The booms are never what they seem to be at the time. The lawyers will pick over the bones. Stick a fork in Austin.

    1. Financial Times
      FT Magazine Financials
      How bonds ate the entire financial system
      A very short, very wild history of the market that will shape the next financial crisis
      Robin Wigglesworth yesterday

      It was a crisp September day in 2015 when Timothy Young arrived at Houten, an unremarkable Dutch commuter town, determined to collect an almost 400-year-old debt. He carried a case containing a fragile piece of goatskin covered in dense writing and numbers. It was a bond, issued in 1648 by a group of Dutch landowners, who managed the dikes on a stretch of the river Lek. They had borrowed 1,000 guilders from a local merchant and the bond explained that, in return for the loan, the merchant would receive a 5 per cent interest payment every year — for ever.

      Although the terms of this so-called “perpetual” bond have changed over centuries of wars, depressions, revolutions and new currencies, it is still a valid liability of Stichtse Rijnlanden, a Dutch utility, and is now owned by Yale University’s Beinecke Library. Young, a curator at Yale, was collecting €136 of interest from a delighted Dutch official, who had made a giant cheque to commemorate the payment.

      For Young, the biggest thrill was being taken to visit the dike the bond had financed in the 17th century. “For a nerd like me, that was just fabulous,” Young says. “It’s a tiny thing, but that’s the takeaway curators look for: what is this object, why was it made, how did it survive the ages, what does it mean today and how can we connect all those things to understand human nature a little better?”
      …

    3. Financial Times
      FT Alphaville Sovereign bonds
      About that Treasury ‘tsunami’ . . . 
      2Big2Fail
      Robin Wigglesworth and Alexandra Scaggs yesterday

      As widely expected (and trailed on Monday), the US Treasury has just announced that it will be jacking up the size of its debt auctions to rebuild reserves and finance its growing budget deficit.

      The Treasury expects it will have to sell more than $1tn of bills and bonds in the coming three months. Here is a table showing the auction sizes from the May-to-July 2023 quarter (in billions of dollars), and the expected sizes in the coming three months.

      The post-debt-ceiling deluge of Treasury bills failed to spark the financial carnage that some were predicting/hoping for, and this increase in auction sizes will in effect push out that borrowing into longer-dated tenors of notes and bonds.

      A couple of interesting points in the table above: The rise in long-term debt sales will be front-loaded, with the biggest jump in 10-, 20- and 30-year debt coming this month. Issuance of shorter-maturity notes (2s, 3s and 5s) will rise in a steadier fashion.

      This makes sense if the yield curve is on its way to un-inverting itself at some point in the next year; it’s better to sell more long-dated bonds when long-term rates are relatively low. Strategists at CreditSights expect the yield curve to right itself in the next year. Other banks, such as Deutsche Bank, frame this as “increasing term premium”, which is sort of a catchall term for a steeper (or less inverted) yield curve.

      In any event, the chunkiness of the coming US government coupon-bearing debt sales — at a time when the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet — is again worrying some people.

      And to be fair, the numbers are big! Barclays caused a minor stir yesterday with a note on what they termed the coming “Treasury tsunami”, which they expect to be a major force beyond the current quarter (their emphasis below):

      “Given that borrowing needs are likely to remain persistently high (as indicated by the Treasury’s Q4 borrowing need of $850bn), we believe this process of raising coupon auction sizes will continue for a few quarters. Even as the Fed ends QT in the first half of next year, wide budget deficits will ensure that the Treasury would still need to issue more notes/bonds to keep the share of T-bills within the desired range. We believe auction sizes will eventually rise to levels beyond the COVID peak (with the exception of 7y and 20y, for idiosyncratic reasons). Hence, we expect the Treasury to signal that further increases are needed at the upcoming meeting. We would not be surprised if net issuance of notes/bonds to investors were to be close to $2trn in CY 24, vs. $1tn in CY 23.”
      …

      1. “…the chunkiness of the coming US government coupon-bearing debt sales — at a time when the Fed is still shrinking its balance sheet — is again worrying some people.”

        Translation:

        – EVER HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES ARE IN THE BAG.

        – HOUSING PRICES ARE HEADED EVER DEEPER INTO THE CR8R.

        – DON’T WORRY, BE HAPPY.

    4. Markets Briefing Markets
      Treasury yields surge after US steps up plans to borrow more money
      Sterling hits weakest level against the dollar since June after Bank of England raises benchmark rate to 5.25%
      Montage of the US Treasury building and the logo of the Department of the Treasury
      The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.11 percentage points, extending a rise that began on Wednesday after the US government lifted its issuance target
      Kate Duguid in New York and Daria Mosolova in London 7 hours ago

      US Treasury yields climbed to a nine-month high, continuing their ascent following an announcement from the government that it would increase its borrowing in the coming months.

      The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 0.11 percentage points to 4.19 per cent, extending a rise that began on Wednesday after the US government lifted its issuance target for the coming quarter and strong private payrolls data. Also in the mix, though not necessarily front of investors’ minds, was Fitch’s unexpected downgrade on Tuesday of Washington’s credit rating.

      The Treasury said it would boost its issuance of long-term debt this quarter, in order to fill the growing gap between tax revenue and government spending. Yields on 10- and 30-year Treasury bonds have jumped since then.

      Yields were also propped up on Wednesday by stronger-than-expected private payrolls data. That fed into the thesis that the US economy might be able to achieve a “soft landing”, which would erode the chances of interest rates and borrowing costs declining sharply any time soon. That could be a negative for risky assets such as stocks.

      The US on Friday will publish its closely watched hiring figures for July, which are expected to show that employers added fewer jobs last month.

      Investors selling longer dated bonds on Thursday was part of a move “that was set in motion earlier this week by the Treasury’s increased issuance and Fitch’s downgrade of US debt”, said Subadra Rajappa, head US rates strategy at Société Générale.

      Piling further pressure on Treasuries, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said he was shorting US 30-year debt, citing “large deficits as far as the eye can see”.

      “It is hard to imagine how the market absorbs such a large increase in supply without materially higher rates,” the Pershing Square chief executive said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
      …

    5. Mortgage
      Published August 3, 2023 5:44pm EDT
      Mortgage rates edge higher to nearly 7%
      Average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains more than double what it was 2 years ago
      By Daniella Genovese FOXBusiness
      Macro Trends Advisors founding partner Mitch Roschelle joined ‘Varney & Co.’ to discuss the U.S.’s sky-high mortgage rates amid the Fed’s ongoing fight with inflation. video
      Real estate market is not ‘tumbling’ despite hefty mortgage rates: Mitch Roschelle

      Macro Trends Advisors founding partner Mitch Roschelle joined ‘Varney & Co.’ to discuss the U.S.’s sky-high mortgage rates amid the Fed’s ongoing fight with inflation.

      Mortgage rates rose again this week, bad news for Americans seeking to upgrade or buy their first home.

      The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage ticked up to 6.90% this week, up from 6.81% a week ago, according to data released Thursday by mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. A year ago, the benchmark home loan rate stood at 4.99%.

      Meanwhile, the average rate on 15-year fixed mortgages, popular with those refinancing their homes, climbed to 6.25% from 6.11% last week. A year ago, it was 4.26%.
      California’s Bay Area

      A for sale sign is posted in front of a home for sale on February 20, 2023 in San Francisco, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images / Getty Images)

      The average rate on a 30-year mortgage remains more than double what it was two years ago, when ultra-low rates spurred a wave of home sales and refinancing. Homeowners who locked in those lower borrowing costs two years ago are reluctant to sell and jump into a higher rate on a new property.

      High inflation has driven the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate 11 times since March 2022. Its fed funds rate has hit the highest level in 22 years.
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/mortgage-rates-edge-higher-nearly-7-percent

    6. Housing
      Published July 14, 2023 3:10pm EDT
      US home prices still face a ‘steep and sustained’ decline this year, economist warns
      Economist warns ‘the bulk of the drop in home prices is yet to come’
      By Megan Henney FOXBusiness

      ProChain President David Tawil explains why he predicts rate hikes are on the horizon and likely to stay high ‘for a number of years.’

      The U.S. housing market has defied expectations for a crash so far this year, but a steep decline in home prices could be right around the corner, according to a new analyst note from Pantheon Macroeconomics.

      In contrast to the widespread belief that the housing market has already hit bottom and is now in the midst of a recovery, Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy argued that the better-than-expected performance seen this spring was merely the result of “aggressive discounts and a lack of resale inventory – not an actual housing market recovery.”

      “We are baffled by the emerging narrative in the commentariat that housing is now recovering, because it isn’t,” Clancy wrote in the note. “Home sales jumped at the start of the year, lagging the late-2022 dip in mortgage rates, but they have fallen more recently thanks to the latest back-up in rates, and mortgage applications signal that they will soon dip to a new cycle low.”
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-still-face-steep-sustained-decline-year-economist-warns

      1. “We are baffled by the emerging narrative in the commentariat that housing is now recovering, because it isn’t,”

        Porcine beauticians gonna porkify…

  37. See Inside a Ghost Town of Abandoned Mansions in China
    Now, farmers are reportedly putting the land of the deserted development to use
    By Katherine McLaughlin
    August 1, 2023
    This aerial photo taken on March 31 2023 shows deserted villas in a suburb of Shenyang in China’s northeastern Liaoning…
    The State Guest Mansions was planned as development of 260 European-style villas.
    Photo: Jade Gao/AFP/Getty Images

    The State Guest Mansions were envisioned as the palatial homes for the upper crust of society. Now, their only residents are hurdles of cattle and the occasional adventure explorers meandering like ghosts around the arched verandas and stone façades of hundreds of abandoned villas. Located around the hills of Shenyang (about 400 miles northeast of Beijing), the development was originally planned by Greenland Group, a Shanghai-based real estate developer, and broke ground in 2010. But as AFP reports, within two years the project had come to grinding halt, leaving the half-formed skeletons of imitative royalty in its wake. Today the crumbling estates are still abandoned, left in an eerie series of rows appearing like an architectural cornfield.
    …
    https://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/see-inside-a-ghost-town-of-abandoned-mansions-in-china

    1. Where is AlbuquerqueDan when you need someone to put in a hopeful word about the Chinese housing sector?

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