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No One Wants To Be The First To Blink And Drop Their Price, But Eventually Most Will

A report from the News Tribune in Washington. “Median closed sale price for existing homes in Pierce County in July was $541,000, down from June’s $545,000 and $575,000 in July 2022, according to the latest Northwest Multiple Listing Service report. A Kitsap County broker cited in Monday’s report confirmed the issues some buyers are running into if they also are trying to sell their existing home. ‘Many potential sellers are holding back because they don’t see a way forward in buying another home given the limited supply,’ said Frank Wilson, managing broker, John L. Scott, in Poulsbo. ‘We’re still seeing multiple offers and in the case of buyers who need to sell first, their offers are being overlooked for transactions that are not contingent on the sale of a home.'”

Hawaii Business. “Home sales last month on Kauaʻi were so slow that only 15 single-family homes changed hands, down from 24 in July 2022 and the fewest sold in a month in at least five years. And condominium sales on the Garden Isle have been slow for many months. Year-to-date, the median price for a single-family home on Kauaʻi is $1.1 million, down 8.3% from last year, but up 43.7% from the same point three years ago, when the Covid pandemic and low interest rates were helping to heat up home sales. The median Kauaʻi condo price through the end of July was $697,000, down 3.9% from a year ago but up 26.7% from the same period in 2020.”

Texas Public Radio. “Sara Briseño-Gerrish, the chair of the San Antonio Board of Realtors, said Californians have flocked to Texas for the affordable housing and good job market. Briseño-Gerrish said the trend of paying premiums above and beyond the asking price for a home is gone. ‘I think the days of paying like thousands and thousands above list price like we were experiencing during the pandemic,’ she explained, ‘that seems to be kind of over here in the San Antonio market. It’s still a great market, but we have definitely seen a change. Days on the market are increasing. I believe this is the third month in a row that prices have ticked down by like 1%.'”

Bisnow Houston in Texas. “A new foreclosure sale has bumped a $229M multifamily portfolio loss up to $294M. Applesway Investment Group defaulted on a $65.2M loan backed by Cabo San Lucas, an apartment complex at 9220 Nathaniel St. in Houston, according to foreclosure documents. County records show the property was picked up at public auction last week for $50M, the fifth formerly Applesway-owned complex to hit the block in about four months. A subsidiary of investment firm Ellington Management Group issued the $65.2M loan to Applesway Investment Group, run by Jay Gajavelli, in December 2021 when borrowing terms were much more favorable.”

“Applesway and Gajavelli also face a lawsuit from 123 investors who claim their $12.4M investment was shifted to a different, unsuccessful deal than the one they believed they were buying into and that Applesway then lied about it. Atti and S3 Your Financial Future also claim to be ‘victims of fraud by Applesway Investment Group,’ stating in a July 17 filing they ‘were unaware of fraud and diversion of funds.'”

The Real Deal. “South Florida’s multifamily party may be coming to an end. The market softened in the second quarter, and is expected to further slow by year-end, according to a recently released report. In the second quarter, occupancy dropped across all South Florida submarkets, with the region averaging 95 percent, down 2 percentage points from last year, according to the report from Berkadia. In turn, landlords gave in to concessions, offering a month’s free rent or a discount on fees such as pet deposits. On the investment sales side, South Florida felt the squeeze from high interest rates, with deal volume dropping 72 percent, year-over-year in the first half of this year.”

“The construction spree continues to add supply, even as residential influx is more of a trickle. Developers, emboldened by the hot market of the past two years, are slated to bring over 19,000 units to South Florida by the end of this year, according to Berkadia. That would be more than the projected absorption of 12,000 units. In the first half of this year, investors paid a combined $1.1 billion for South Florida multifamily projects across 11 deals, paying an average of $341,000 per unit, Berkadia’s report shows. That’s a far cry from the $3.9 billion in investment sales in 33 deals during the first half of last year. At the time, the average price per unit was $419,300.”

Arlington Now in Virginia. “Question: What impact will the new Toll Brothers community have on the Arlington housing market? Toll Brothers will open sales of 40 new single-family homes at The Grove at Dominion Hills very soon (projected by this fall) starting in the $1.9Ms (really $2M) and I suspect most of the homes will have a final price tag of $2.1M-$2.3M. All 40 homes will not be available at once, rather they’ll be released in phases based on the pace of sales, but the addition of these homes to the market will have a significant impact on the supply of new construction homes in Arlington and I expect will put downward pressure on the price of new builds under ~$2.6M.”

“The first chart, courtesy of Altos Research, shows the percentage of homes with a price reduction in the ‘upper’ price range of the Arlington single-family home market, which The Grove community will fall within. Notice the upward trend of price reductions this year highlighted by ~30% of homes reducing price this spring compared to previous spring markets with just 20-25% of homes with a price reduction. I have seen this play out anecdotally as well with more new builds reducing the asking price or accepting larger discounts from ask than in years past. I would expect this trend to continue as the market adjusts to the Toll Brothers inventory rolling in later this year and in 2024-25. So this chart tells us that unless demand picks up sharply for large homes, the extra supply added by Toll Brothers will likely push this sub-market (~5,000+ SqFt) into a buyer’s market.”

Market Watch. “A raft of credit rating actions against more than two dozen U.S. banks by Moody’s Investors Service late Monday didn’t shock one buyer of distressed commercial real estate. This is ‘more evidence of what is already known,’ said Matt Windisch, executive vice president at Kennedy-Wilson. Moody’s, citing ‘profitability pressures’ at banks and asset quality that ‘looks set to decline,’ also placed ratings on six major U.S. lenders on review for downgrade. ‘These properties, themselves, don’t feel distressed,’ Windisch said of a recent wave of landlords defaulting on or handing back keys to lenders on underwater multifamily properties. ‘It’s the capital structure that’s out of whack.'”

From First Post. “There were times when many predicted that businesses would give up traditional office spaces in favour of WeWork facilities. But the American start-up is now struggling to stay in business. The New York-based firm is losing money, and people are cancelling their subscriptions in huge numbers. The embattled office-sharing firm is itself worried about survival. WeWork warned investors on Tuesday that it might not be in business for much longer. Following the announcement, shares of the company dropped 26 per cent on Tuesday. This came as little surprise to many, as its shares had been selling for pennies for months and investors recognised that WeWork’s financial responsibilities and losses had become untenable. But how can a firm that was prepared for a spectacular IPO four years ago suddenly be warning of upcoming bankruptcy? Here is a closer look at the rise and fall of WeWork.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “It’s 2021. A young, pre-profit startup meets a ‘blank check’ investment company. They merge, and money seems to fall out of the sky. But two years later, the Bay Area’s tech workforce is feeling the effects of that wild investment craze, one layoff round at a time. Spanning the manufacturing and software industries, a herd of startups that went public through special purpose acquisition company mergers are laying off swaths of employees in 2023. The SPAC deals, as they’re known, suddenly delivered firms hundreds of millions of dollars in cash by providing them with an easy route to a public listing — money that companies burned through as profits proved elusive and stock prices tanked.”

“The list goes on: Satellite operator Planet is laying off 85 San Francisco employees as its merger coffers dwindle and fintech giant SoFi laid off 2,000 workers about two years after its Chamath Palihapitiya-led listing. The venture capitalist and former Warriors part-owner also put Opendoor in the public markets through a SPAC — the buzzy real estate firm laid off 1,000 workers from November to April.”

This Is Money. “Half of properties that sold last month had their asking prices slashed in order to so, new data has revealed. The estate agent Hamptons said that 50 per cent of homes in England and Wales sold following a price reduction in July, up from 47 per cent in June and from 34 per cent in July last year. It said that the proportion of sellers reducing the price of their home had reached the highest level in at least nine years, when it started collecting this data. Henry Pryor, a professional buying agent and property expert says there is still somewhat of disconnect between buyers and sellers at present.”

“‘Sellers think it’s 2022. Buyers think it’s 2017,’ he said. ‘It’s dawning on buyers that they no longer have to pay sticker price, which leaves sellers and their agents struggling to work out if they should price expecting to be chipped or if they price realistically and hold their ground. Having done this for 40 years I have seen this before,’ says Pryor, ‘sellers always take longer than you expect to appreciate that the market has moved and that for most it doesn’t actually matter. What impacts on their sale will impact on their purchase. Understandably perhaps no one wants to be the first to blink and drop their price, but eventually most will.'”

The Daily Mail on Australia. “More than $500 million worth of housing development projects are set for sale following the collapse of building company Toplace, leaving thousands of apartment owners in the lurch. The failed property empire of Sydney businessman Jean Nassif is being broken up by major lenders seeking sales to recover millions in debt. Thousands of apartment owners living in Toplace buildings are concerned that they will not recoup enough money to fix serious defects after big lenders move to offload Toplace assets to reduce their own losses. It is understood the company’s collapse could affect more than 20,000 homeowners across 20 buildings.”

“Nassif became a social media sensation in 2019 when he gave his wife, Nisserine ‘Nissy’ Nassif, a $480,000 yellow Lamborghini for Valentine’s Day. He uploaded a video of him presenting the luxury vehicle to the mother of his children with the comment: ‘Congratulations Mrs Nassif… you like?’ Last week it was revealed that the high-profile couple had split, after Ms Nassif changed her Instagram name and was spotted out without her wedding ring. On her Instagram account she removed ‘wifey’ from her profile as well as her last name ‘Nassef’, which is spelled differently to Nassif.”

Free Malaysia Today. “In Malaysia, a vacancy tax is more likely to hurt homebuyers and homeowners rather than ease a property glut. This is the view expressed by the National House Buyers Association (HBA) and an independent researcher in response to a proposal for the introduction of a levy for properties that remain vacant for an extended period. According to the National Property Information Centre (Napic), there were 27,746 residential units still unsold in 2022. Collectively, they are valued at RM18.41 billion. HBA secretary-general Chang Kim Loong said local developers do not intentionally hoard completed units to inflate prices. ‘They are just not able to sell them,’ he told FMT Business.”

From Bloomberg. “A debt crisis that rivals China Evergrande Group’s default may be brewing in the world’s second-largest economy. ‘Any default would impact China’s housing market more than Evergrande’s collapse as Country Garden has four times as many projects,’ Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kristy Hung wrote in a report Wednesday.”

The Telegraph. “When it comes to economic data, Chinese policymakers might now prefer the concept of lying flat. The nation’s trade figures are doing something much more flagrant – nosediving. Analysts warned that the numbers are likely to fall further as rising geopolitical tensions, tariffs, the fallout from China’s zero-Covid policy and Xi’s increasingly authoritarian regime push international companies and investors away from China – just as the nation’s domestic economy tanks. ‘Xi Jingping doesn’t understand economics. That is the problem,’ says Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute. China was once known as the workshop of the world. Yet ‘Made in China’ is now in decline.”

“‘Exports is their go-to strategy if they can’t rely on housing,’ says Ken Rogoff, chair of international economics at Harvard University. ‘It is just one more sign of many that China is in for a sustained slowdown.’ Youth unemployment has soared and the property market is in a prolonged downturn. Both of these factors are weighing on consumption. The Xi administration is struggling to find ways to boost demand while China’s working age population is in sharp decline. All the traditional levers it would look to pull are no longer working. ‘They are running into the same problems that Japan did and the Soviet Union did,’ says Rogoff. ‘You just can’t keep building houses that nobody lives in.'”

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This Post Has 120 Comments

    1. How long would it take to save up for a house in Denver? (8/8/2023):

      “It would take the average Colorado renter well over a decade to be able to afford the first years’ worth of homeownership costs, according to a new report.

      In the Mile High City, a new homebuyer needs to spend $169,253 in the first year alone. This includes a 20% down payment, closing costs, annual mortgage, annual homeowners’ insurance and annual property taxes.

      Even with one of the highest renter incomes in the country, Denverites will take over a decade to save that much. With a median renter income of $65,673, it would take 12.9 years to save up for that first homeowner year.”

      https://kdvr.com/news/data/how-long-would-it-take-to-save-up-for-a-house-in-denver/

      12.9 years is that a lot?

      4. With a take home of $40K something and half of that going to rent, how will they save over $10K per year?

          1. Yes, a late 30’ish relative of mine just purchased a $600k home in Denver. Mom and Dad certainly gave a large down payment.

  2. ‘In the first half of this year, investors paid a combined $1.1 billion for South Florida multifamily projects across 11 deals, paying an average of $341,000 per unit, Berkadia’s report shows. That’s a far cry from the $3.9 billion in investment sales in 33 deals during the first half of last year. At the time, the average price per unit was $419,300’

    This is THE holy grail of investing.

  3. ‘A raft of credit rating actions against more than two dozen U.S. banks by Moody’s Investors Service late Monday didn’t shock one buyer of distressed commercial real estate. This is ‘more evidence of what is already known’

    That’s what moodys and fitch do Matt.

    1. Remember when all three ratings agencies gave AAA grades to toxic-waste MBSs before the 2007 housing bubble bust? Pepperidge Farms remembers.

  6. Housing? One would think that having a heart attack could disrupt paying your mortgage on time.

    “Over the past three years, journalists have come up with many reasons for the rise in heart damage (e.g. showering). However, none blamed it on the experimental gene therapy administered to billions around the globe.

    Let me walk you through my TOP 20 reasons in this THREAD.”

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1688979934683770881.html

    It would also be hard to pay your mortgage if you got FIRED FROM YOUR JOB for not getting injected with deadly mRNA poison.

    Housing? Economy? Vaccines? That’s right.

    1. Look at the late 2014 prices in that chart. Then factor in that the fed funds rate was effectively ZERO at that time and mortgage rates were sub 4%. Now mortgage rates are pushing 8%. Prices need to fall another 65% from here just to get back to the monthly payment of 2014. COULD GET UGLY.

    1. “The seller should have sold last year.”

      Agreed.

      I see one neighbor who parks a red truck on the front lawn, but the developer poured curbs around there, and the main street has a storm drain grate, so that neighborhood must be working-class.

    1. “This is all while mortgage rates just hit 7.1% and credit card debt rates hit a record 25%.”

      Probably impossible to pay down those credit cards.

      1. Personal bankruptcy is really hard to file these days. Filings are bouncing around historical lows, up only slightly. Illinois’s largest consumer bankruptcy law firm just filed it’s own Chapter 11 recently, which is crazy if you think about it. Most people with a lot of credit card debt also have some assets, like a car or house. Many states only let you keep some equity in your home, only a handful allow you to keep all of it. The used car thing is crazy too. I talked to a bankruptcy lawyer the other day, a friend from high school, he said the bankruptcy court will sell your $10,000 used 2019 Nissan to CarMax, pay you out your $2,400 in equity, and distribute the rest to your creditors. Most people can’t risk losing their car by going BK so they just default or make other payment arrangements. It’s pretty crazy times actually.

  12. Just saw my neighbor; he said her Subaru Crosstrek was $42k out the door, which also included an extended warranty and a set of winter wheels and tires.

    1. Every time her brittle Subaru windshield gets a rock chip that rapidly spreads into a widening crack, she’ll have to shell out $1000 to get her Eyesight sensors re-calibrated.

      1. Funny you mention windshields. Every one of our cars has a cracked windshield from aggregate tossed in the air from pickup trucks with the oversized tires sticking out the sides.

      2. I fix chips on my Subaru’s windshield easily with a DIY kit. Takes about 15 minutes of hands-on work and 1 hour of time.

        Eyesight can be manually turned off. It’s great for highway driving as it maintains speed and distance.

      3. Every time her brittle Subaru windshield gets a rock chip that rapidly spreads into a widening crack, she’ll have to shell out $1000 to get her Eyesight sensors re-calibrated.

        My insurance covers that type of thing (not a subaru, but similar calibration needed) as part of the comprehensive claim.

    2. My philosophy is that if a particular brand/model needs an extended warranty then I should buy something else. Of course dealers will try to sell you one regardless of what brand you buy, even for a Honda or a Toyota, because the sales commissions are huge.

      I’ve never understood the Subaru cult. I’ve found every test drive I have taken to be underwhelming, plus there was the head gasket issue (which they claim has been fixed) but some people out here will buy no other brand.

      A neighbor totalled his Forrester early in 2021 and had to wait about 8 months to get a replacement. It’s not like AWD is a Subaru exclusive anymore, but he wouldn’t consider anything else and chose to wait.

      1. “I’ve never understood the Subaru cult.”

        Yep, it’s right up there with scientology here in Washington state. I would like to have a Toyota 4Runner with true 4×4, but they’re mighty proud of those too.

        1. Yeah. the 4Runner has its own cult, though in its case it might be deserved. The discontinued Nissan XTerra also has its own cult.

        2. “I’ve never understood the Subaru cult.”

          The primary choice of vehicle that’s chosen by women in comfortable shoes.

      2. same
        Junky under powered and certainly not up to other Japanese makes in quality and longevity. a100k mile Toyota is just getting started. a 100k mile Subaru is probably needing major work.

        1. I commuted 142 miles everyday to work from the Antelope Valley into L.A. for over 15 years. For 7 years I drove my little Honda Fit–I put 308,000 miles on it before it was totaled in an incident on the freeway. In the middle of the night on an unlit second of the 5 freeway, I hit a steel ramp (like those used to drive cars onto trailers) which destroyed everything under the car including the oil pan and gas tank. I was lucky the car didn’t blow-up!

          The only maintenance I did during the 308,000 miles was two clutch replacements and valve adjustment. I changed the oil regularly with Mobil1 synthetic. I also had a ’98 Integra that I sold with 168,000 miles–the car was still like new.

          1. Sorry….story was great but I had hard time getting past the commute part. 15 years?! That’s a lot of dash time!

          2. Sorry….story was great but I had hard time getting past the commute part. 15 years?! That’s a lot of dash time!
            In L.A. or So. California, distance isn’t in miles, it is measured in time. No one asks, “How many miles is it to Downtown?” Instead they ask, “How long does it take to get there?” The reason is that distance and time are not very correlated. Because I could come to work a little late avoiding rush hour traffic, I could drive the 71 miles in 1 hr 10 min. If I went during the heaviest traffic time, it could take almost 3 hours.

            Many people in my lab had commutes that were less than half the distance as me. But their commutes took longer because the freeways they took were more jammed. The last 40 miles of my commute were over the mountains and high desert, nothing around so I could do 70-75 mph. That took around half an hour.

            However, houses that were 40 miles closer cost between two and three times as much. So instead of around $300k, they cost between $700-900k. Adding an extra hour to my commute saved me a huge amount of money and I got to retire early and I have more than enough saved. Living closer to L.A. has very little benefits in many ways. L.A. is huge and I can visit to shop or what not with a 40 minute drive–all the amenities but none of the costs. Or homeless or traffic.

            L.A. used to be a great place to live. But that changed 25 years ago. That’s when L.A. County added 2,000,000 more people–it went from 8 million to 10 million–that increase is bigger than the population of many states. All crammed into the same area.

            The best strategy for many things in life is to do exactly the opposite thing that everyone else is doing.

          3. The best strategy for many things in life is to do exactly the opposite thing that everyone else is doing.
            Well said.

        2. 2008 Toyota Highlander base model 320K miles runs like new
          2013 Toyota Camry SE 185K miles runs like new

          I don’t waste money on any other make

          1. I’ve noticed that Toyota builds a quieter car than Honda.

            We have both, and Honda delivers better fuel mileage likely because they skimped on noise insulation, that heavy rubber matting that keeps the cabin noise down. Many of our roads have winter surface damage that leaves rough exposed aggregate that is really noisy to drive over, and these unibody cars aggravate the problem too.

    1. Financial Times
      US banks
      Loan losses at US banks hit $19bn as borrowers feel rate rise pain
      Credit card and commercial real estate customers drive ‘charge-offs’ to highest level in more than three years
      The US Federal Reserve building in Washington
      The US Federal Reserve building. A jump in loan losses comes as borrowers with floating-rate loans are facing higher repayments after the Fed implemented an aggressive string of interest rate rises
      Joshua Franklin and Stephen Gandel in New York yesterday

      US banks suffered almost $19bn of losses on soured loans in the second quarter, the highest level in more than three years as lenders contend with rising defaults among credit card and commercial real estate borrowers.

      Lenders reported $18.9bn in so-called charge-offs — losses on loans marked as unrecoverable — during the quarter, an increase of almost 17 per cent on the previous three months and 75 per cent higher than the same period last year.

      In all, banks lost 61 cents for every $100 loaned, the most since the second quarter of 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic was ravaging the economy.
      …

    2. Money
      Gen Z Braces For Its First Student Loan Repayments
      Bing Guan/Bloomberg
      Aug 9, 2023, 06:30am EDT
      Already struggling with soaring rents, recent grads now have a new monthly bill to worry about. They’re living at home, looking for employer help and trying to figure out changing repayment plans.
      By Jah’i Selassie, Forbes Staff

      Mandatory repayments of federal student loans have been halted since March 2020, when President Donald Trump put in place a moratorium, later extended by Congress and President Joe Biden. That means those who earned an undergraduate degree or left school without one in 2020, 2021 and 2022 have never had to deal with the complexity and financial strain of student loan repayments.

      Millennials, Gen Xers and even Baby Boomers owe more total dollars. But this October, when 46 million Americans are supposed to resume paying back the $1.6 trillion they collectively owe on student loans from Uncle Sam, Gen Zers could be in for the most shock and confusion.

      They, like other debtors, will have to begin payments in October, while 2023 grads have until December or so, since there’s a six-month grace period after a debtor ends full-time schooling. Those in graduate school can defer payments, but the interest on their grad loans and any unsubsidized undergraduate loans will start accruing once again on September 1, as the three-and-a-half-year moratorium on both payments and interest officially ends. (Yes, the Biden Administration has announced a 12-month “on-ramp period” during which missed or late payments won’t result in collection actions, but that won’t stop the interest meter from ticking.)
      …
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/jahlselassie/2023/08/09/gen-z-braces-for-its-first-student-loan-repayments/?sh=7a158e451fb1

      1. “They, like other debtors, will have to begin payments in October, while 2023 grads have until December or so, since there’s a six-month grace period after a debtor ends full-time schooling.”

        October is when the Google Pixel 8 series are making their debut, so Uncle Sam might have to wait ’til after Christmas.

        1. Uncle Sam can and will garnish income tax refunds for those behind on their student loan payments.

        2. Since when did debt repayments ever stop fools from going further into debt to buy Chinese gadgets that they don’t need?

    3. Economy
      Student-loan payments and steeper interest rates will pave way for a severe consumer-led recession, top economist David Rosenberg says
      Zahra Tayeb
      Aug 9, 2023, 1:37 AM PDT
      Top economist David Rosenberg. Screenshot via Bloomberg TV

      – The resumption of student loan payments combined with interest-rate hikes will fuel a consumer-led recession, David Rosenberg says.

      – The economist says it generally takes six months after rate hikes of 500 basis points for a downturn to hit the economy.

      – Rosenberg has been bearish on markets and the US economy for a while and has faced backlash over it.

      The Federal Reserve’s aggressive hikes to interest rates coupled with student-loan payments resuming in October will pave the way for a consumer-led recession, says David Rosenberg, a top economist.

      After a three-year pause, the federal government is set to start charging interest on federal student-loan balances once more, and student-loan borrowers are expected to start making payments again in October. The resumption comes after the Supreme Court blocked President Joe Biden’s plans to forgive up to $20,000 in student debt for federal borrowers.

      In a CNBC interview, Rosenburg said the loan repayments, combined with higher interest rates, threatened to trigger a consumer slowdown. The Fed has already lifted interest rates from almost zero to over 5% since last spring in an effort to bring inflation down to its 2% target, and traders are bracing for more hikes later this year.

      “I think it’s going to start at the consumer level, and I think that we’ll see the first signs of this after the student loan forgiveness program ends in the coming months. So, I think that it’s going to be consumer-led,” Rosenberg said, speaking about a prospective recession.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/student-loan-payments-consumer-led-recession-david-rosenberg-2023-8

  14. A reader sent these in:

    Rumors Country Garden is about to go under. Nothing unexpected as it is very heavily borrowed and has significant refinancing maturities this year, but will be important symbolically as everyone is awaiting signs of bottoming in China.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1688575577337282560

    Oh:

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1688022330885435392

    The Panic. Other Chinese property developers are also plummeting in Hong Kong.

    https://twitter.com/CathyYuanZhang/status/1688808474225061889

    Recession odds/news collapsed in 1990, 2000 and 2007. That makes today *not* different thus far in that context.

    https://twitter.com/MichaelKantro/status/1688671417716408320

    So “no landing” is consensus now I see, Fed tightening cycle with no economic downturn or lag effects…Steady lads.

    https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1689070821908570113

    6/ The most heinous offense is housing. The Fed has purchased TRILLIONS in mortgage-backed securities. These illicit purchases – more than anything – have sent housing prices skyrocketing everywhere. The Fed virtually nationalized the US housing market with no authority to do so.

    https://twitter.com/OccupytheFeds/status/1688771608154918913

    7/ Now the Fed refuses to sell its MBS. It’s one thing to monetize the national debt with all the Treasury purchases. It’s another to inflate housing out of the reach of everyday families, forcing them to sleep in cars or tents, so Wall Street and the 1% sleep happy.

    https://twitter.com/OccupytheFeds/status/1688771610168225792

    At $46,229, the average transaction price for a new car in the US is now over $11k higher than the average price from three years ago. That’s a 31% increase.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1688676005156642823

    Coming to theatre near you

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1688794074759774208

    Start of a long overdue clean-up, more to come when lagging effects of rate hikes kick in

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1688884588704104448

    Washington becomes the second state after California to see average gasoline prices climb back above $5 a gallon, with AAA reporting The Evergreen State now averages is $5.004 vs $4.998 yesterday. Gasoline prices throughout the US have been moving higher in recent months amid rising crude-oil prices, and the national average is now $3.82. But fuel prices in California and Washington far outpace the rest of the nation as both states have implemented so called cap-and-trade programs where industries, including refineries, must purchase “allowances” based on how much carbon they emit. Drivers in Washington could cross into neighboring Idaho and pay nearly $1 less for gas, as AAA says Idaho’s average pump price is $4.03.

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1688922614629302272

    18,000 people live in this single building in St. Petersburg

    https://twitter.com/MarkTomasovic/status/1489954250063028234

    In Shanghai 63% of Japanese owned factories remain idle, with 28% below 30% of normal output. Meanwhile fences & razor wire are going up in parts of Beijing to keep people in their home & neighborhoods. This is a disaster for the global economy, it just hasn’t been realized yet

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1523149676676980736

    Our new incoming RBA Governor has a $6m property portfolio and 4 investment properties….

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1679694565517975552

    ScoMo says workers earning 180k a yr are not rich
    Albo responds that some workers on 180k a yr are struggling
    In reality workers earning 180k are in the top 4% of income earners
    That is rich by any meaningful definition
    No wonder our country is broken

    https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator/status/1316286126257102848

    1. At $46,229, the average transaction price for a new car in the US is now over $11k higher than the average price from three years ago. That’s a 31% increase.

      What percent of the workforce can afford a $46K car? It has to be rather small.

      1. It seems nearly half the cars in my city are newer model Mercedes, Audi, Tesla, BMW, Range Rover, etc

        I’m not sure what the hell is going on here. I know there was lots of fraud with the PPP loans and ERC.

        1. It seems nearly half the cars in my city are newer model Mercedes, Audi, Tesla, BMW, Range Rover, etc

          Not here. There must be something special about your little burg. You said it doubled in size quickly. That alone is very unusual.

          Heck, my street has megabuck houses and those luxury brands are a small minority here.

      2. What percent of the workforce can afford a $46K car? It has to be rather small.

        In L.A. the foreign car capital of the World, most of the Bimmers, Mercedes and Porsches you see on the road are leased. Nobody buys a BMW because after the warranty period, they cost a fortune to maintain. My cousin actually bought one before he died. When his new 5 series was almost new, one of the turbos failed. Piece of junk…..

    2. Albo responds that some workers on 180k a yr are struggling

      Well, if you absolutely must have an 80K car to show that you’ve made it, plus keeping up with the Joneses in other ways (think of our friend Stanley Johnson) then perhaps things could be tight.

      1. Last April I paid $56k for a car before tax. Totally outrageous, just ridiculous. Put more than half down. An Acura MDX. Nice car though. Gonna drive it for 15 years. we did add some luxuries, like FOB remote start instead of the subscription app; and a bike rack and a heated steering wheel. I figured if the average new car costs $50k, then spending $56k isn’t too crazy. I really did consider the used car market, but that’s even crazier, still, than the new market. And because the used car market is so tight, there’s a lot of junk out there, because people are trading in their cars as soon as they get an accident or have a major mechanical repair. There are few off-lease cars right now available which further messes up the market

        1. Last April I paid $56k for a car before tax. Totally outrageous, just ridiculous. Put more than half down. An Acura MDX. Nice car though. Gonna drive it for 15 years.

          An family friend has a 20 something year old Acura SUV (whatever it was called back then). He’s still driving it with well over 300,000 on the odometer. It’s needed a new transmission and some repairs, but even having the dealer do the repairs the cost wasn’t outrageous.

          What most people don’t know is that Honda stocks spare parts for their cars for a LONG time. A friend had a 1997 Accord–it needed a new power window actuator. Picked an OEM part up at the Honda dealer. If you look at online catalogs, most of the parts for a 1997 Accord are still available. Her Accord had a split in the top radiator tank. I put in an aftermarket from AutoZone which failed 6 months later (got another on warranty). An OEM from Honda was about $325 (I think) which is cheap for any OEM radiator. She was going to sell the car so it wasn’t worth putting in a Honda radiator.

          Hondas (as well as Toyotas) are designed to be maintained. Replacing the clutch on my Fit cost $800 and took only about 6 hours at the dealer. Job was done perfectly–you couldn’t even tell the bolts were wrenched. I always took my cars to the Honda/Acura dealers. In the long run, you’ll save money.

          Don’t ask me my experience with my Chevy dealer working on my 1997 Corvette. I’ll never buy another American ever.

    3. “Washington becomes the second state after California to see average gasoline prices climb back above $5 a gallon, with AAA reporting The Evergreen State now averages is $5.004 vs $4.998 yesterday.”

      It’s $5.76 for super in the Columbia Basin.

    4. “It’s another to inflate housing out of the reach of everyday families, forcing them to sleep in cars or tents, so Wall Street and the 1% sleep happy.”

      Are the masses beginning to connect the dots between the Fed’s housing price inflation program, through Quantitative Easing purchases of MBS, and rising levels of homelessness in every major US city?

      One can hope…

  15. The Secret Service launched an official investigation into who brought the cocaine into the Executive Mansion, but shut down the investigation on July 13 for lack of evidence.

    But investigators know who brought in the cocaine, security sources said – and so does the president. “If you want the name, ask Joe Biden,” one source said. “He knows who it is.”

    https://sofmag.com/secret-service-told-biden-who-brought-cocaine/

    1. I’m sure Hunter has had a filly or two in the Lincoln bedroom, you know, powder the nose, tap some ash, etc., and Brandon: “That’s my boy!”

      1. The Colorado voter age 18-35 top issues:

        Orange Man Bad
        Murder Muh Baby

        “They’re not sending their best”

        2. Murder Muh Baby

          My RINO BIL claims that red states don’t have an exemption for rape or incest. I highly doubt that, as IIRC from polls, most people sympathize with those predicaments. Any information is appreciated.

  17. ‘We’re still seeing multiple offers and in the case of buyers who need to sell first, their offers are being overlooked for transactions that are not contingent on the sale of a home’

    A troubling development for those sellers Frank.

  18. ‘I have seen this play out anecdotally as well with more new builds reducing the asking price or accepting larger discounts from ask than in years past. I would expect this trend to continue as the market adjusts to the Toll Brothers inventory rolling in later this year and in 2024-25. So this chart tells us that unless demand picks up sharply for large homes, the extra supply added by Toll Brothers will likely push this sub-market (~5,000+ SqFt) into a buyer’s market’

    Eli goes on to say they’re just fooking the weaker competitors.

  19. ‘These properties, themselves, don’t feel distressed,’ Windisch said of a recent wave of landlords defaulting on or handing back keys to lenders on underwater multifamily properties. ‘It’s the capital structure that’s out of whack’

    How did you lose yer shack Matt?

    It’s the capital structure that’s out of whack.

  20. CCP Flu alleged “cases” are rising, per your globalist media, as are hospitalizations.

    Most of these people going into the hospital are on their 3rd 4th 5th 10th 20th injection of the deadly mRNA poison. They have A.I.D.S. which stands for aquired immuno deficiency syndrome.

    Their bodies are shutting down, their organ systems are shutting down.

    And there is no such thing as a “case” of CCP Flu, it’s all just data manipulation.

    All the freaks in Denver are wearing their masks while driving alone, walking on the sidewalk alone. It’s been a noticable increase in the past few weeks.

    Why now?

    The walls are closing in on the Unelected Occupant and his crackhead degenerate son. Ukrainistan is losing the war, badly. July ended it’s August now so the Northern Hemisphere is past its hottest days of the year, hence the hard pivot and re-branding of #TheNarrative.

    If they could kill all of you with Ebola to steal the 2024 election, they will do it.

    1. CCP Flu alleged “cases” are rising, per your globalist media, as are hospitalizations.

      I wonder if they will try the “winter of severe illness and death” narrative again this year? Will the screeching, paid off doctors reappear on the evening news, telling us we will all die if we don’t get the latest booster?

  21. ‘there were 27,746 residential units still unsold in 2022. Collectively, they are valued at RM18.41 billion. HBA secretary-general Chang Kim Loong said local developers do not intentionally hoard completed units to inflate prices. ‘They are just not able to sell them’

    It’s been like this for a decade in Malaysia. Chinese investors strike again.

    1. Two examples of the aforementioned.

      The Hill — COVID hospitalizations jump again (8/8/2023):

      “For the second week in a row, the number of people being admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 rose significantly, by more than 12%.

      An additional 9,056 people were hospitalized with the virus last week, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – that represents a 12.5% jump.

      The summer wave started a few weeks ago. Last week, the number of new hospitalizations was up 12.1%.

      Jill Rosenthal, director of public health policy at the Center for American Progress, told The Hill that summer surges of COVID-19 may be the new norm. “We have had a summer wave of COVID for the last few summers, and so it’s not surprising to see an increase in COVID right now.”

      https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4142598-covid-hospitalizations-jump-again-maps-show-where-its-worst/

      Politico — What to know about the dominant Covid-19 EG.5 variant, nicknamed ‘Eris’ (8/8/2023):

      “A fast-spreading new subvariant of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 — nicknamed “Eris” by health watchers but formally known as EG.5 — recently became the most prevalent strain in the country, according to recent official estimates, though it does not appear to cause significant illness or pose immediate danger.”

      You will be updated on the “immediacy” of the danger soon. Some kind of stupid dial on your TeeVee, like the terr’ism dial from 20 years ago pre-Iraq invasion or more of the more recent CCP Flu propaganda of the past 3-1/2 years. It’s all the same bullsh*t just re-packaged into the new #Narrative.

      “According to a CDC estimate from Saturday, the EG.5 variant makes up approximately 17 percent of all Covid cases in the U.S., making it the most dominant strain of the disease. That number is an increase from the roughly 12 percent share of EG.5-variant cases among all strains in a July 22 calculation. The variant has also been reported in several countries.

      The dangers from Covid have sharply declined with vaccinations, but new variants have continued to arise.”

      New Variant = print another few trillion and hand it to billionaires, and crush the remaining middle class under the bootheel of Marxist gloablism. And yeah, steal the 2024 election too.

      “Since June, health officials and drug manufacturers have worked toward the development of shots that should also address the EG.5 subvariant, given that it exists in the Omicron family.

      The public should be able to start receiving the shots starting in the fall.

      “Vaccination continues to be the best way to protect against severe outcomes of Covid-19,” the CDC spokesperson said.

      https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/08/what-to-know-about-covid-variant-eris-00110286

      Go put some more of that poison in your body, and virtue signal about it on Reddit. You have A.I.D.S. and probably Monkeypox too. I refuse to ride in an elevator with any clown wearing a mask because of their spike-proteins shedding out of every pore of their body.

      The boosted are the super-spreaders, they are enacting a medical genocide just by interacting with the public after having so much of this mystery juice injected into them, again and again and again…

      1. “Center for American Progress” why is a communist NGO reporting on a medical topic? If it isn’t obvious by now…

      2. Where’s Little Tony Fauci, the creator of this virus? He should have been swinging from the gallows long ago.

      3. As time goes by, Covid-19 like all respiratory viruses lose their virulence (ability to make very sick). Covid is nothing now nor will it ever become important in the future unless it can sustain itself in human populations like the flu. Covid doesn’t have a natural reservoir or host because it was manufactured by humans.

        And you can’t assume that Covid-19 will act like influenza in the long term since influenza is a naturally occurring disease that has established itself in humans long ago.

        Influenza is not tested for routinely in populations. So surveillance for the flu is the result of sampling and models. But that doesn’t mean that the flu is not an important respiratory disease especially in the old and sick. But we don’t go around babbling about having people put on masks and suggest that we might have to lock down America.

        In other words, all of this talk of Covid-19 right now is just Pure 100% Bull$hit!

  22. ‘Xi’s increasingly authoritarian regime push international companies and investors away from China – just as the nation’s domestic economy tanks. ‘Xi Jingping doesn’t understand economics. That is the problem’

    He just did a big double down on communism a while back Steve. Communism was imagined by economists, so they ‘understand’ I suppose but then communism always – always – turns to sh$t, so are you surprised?

    ‘All the traditional levers it would look to pull are no longer working’

    This experiment with China hasn’t really been going on so long to consider any of it traditional Ken.

    ‘They are running into the same problems that Japan did and the Soviet Union did,’ says Rogoff. ‘You just can’t keep building houses that nobody lives in’

    Dan? This is how they build cities? Dan?

    via GIPHY

  23. These people don’t look like they’re from Mexico.

    Politico — Mass. governor slams White House for ‘federal crisis of inaction’ on migrants (8/8/2023):

    “Maura Healey of Massachusetts is the latest Democratic governor to declare an emergency over the migrant surge as blue-state leaders ramp up pressure on the Biden administration to expedite work permits for asylum-seekers and support their overwhelmed shelter systems.

    On Tuesday, Healey declared a state of emergency that essentially puts the National Guard on speed dial and expedites the processes for creating or renting more migrant housing.

    The emergency declaration will allow the state to “utilize and operationalize all means necessary” to secure more accommodations and assist the more than 5,000 families currently in the state’s crowded shelters, Healey said during a press conference at the State House.

    The emergency declaration notably does not try to suspend or alter the state’s 1983 “right-to-shelter” law that requires Massachusetts to provide immediate housing to qualified families. Any attempts to alter the statute would likely have faced legal challenges, as New York City Mayor Eric Adams found when he tried to weaken a similar law in his city.”

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/08/massachusetts-new-york-asylum-seekers-biden-00110278

    Jonathan Brownsplatt does not approve. The replacement will continue, cattle tax slaves.

    1. The emergency declaration notably does not try to suspend or alter the state’s 1983 “right-to-shelter” law that requires Massachusetts to provide immediate housing to qualified families.

      So what happens when they run out of money, which is likely already happening and is the source of their panic? Virtue signalling sounds good, until you actually have to cough up a lot of cash to make good on it.

      Will all those lawn signs welcoming migrants be replaced with “No Trespassing” signs once the migrants start knocking on their doors demanding handouts?

      Jean Raspail foretold this would happen.

        1. My little burg briefly housed them in flophouse motels, but this year switched to large tents at the old fairgrounds, which is next to downtown, where about 60 are being housed. Merchants and patrons are complaining about the homeless harassing and even threatening them. I have since learned that dealing with this has become the local police’s #1 issue. Residential crime in neighborhoods next to downtown is on the rise and people are not happy.

          The NextDoor social media site has turned into a place to tell the community that you were burgled, most likely your car because apparently even the homeless here understand the Make My Day Law.

    1. Three kids in daycare, bought a bigger house six months ago at the top of their budget so far out they needed a second car and forgot they were going to need furniture?

      You didn’t need Magic-8 Ball to see how this was going to turn out.

    1. Lease out empty office space long-term and then sublease it out short term. Somehow that’s worth $80B. Much worse than AirBnB.

    2. They have quite a business model:

      “The company leases buildings and divvies them up into office spaces, which it then decks out in a millennial-approved interior design style — think beanbag chairs and free beer on tap — before subletting them to small businesses, start-ups and freelancers who want an office-like environment without paying for a permanent space.”

    1. 3 hours ago, @julia2000 said:

      “There is no hope in correcting this violence by giving excuses to violent kids. The victim said, “These are very young girls,” the Nevada woman told NBC News. “Somebody or something or some circumstance has made a big impression on them — whether it’s historical pressure, societal pressure, social pressure.” “It just seems like it’s a more underlying issue that we, as a society and as a community, need to hold everybody accountable, not just law enforcement.”

      Attention julia2000, under your own recognizance please report to one of our convenient extermination stations to atone for your whiteness.

        1. I knew a guy that built a custom home with his girlfriend 35 years ago in Granite Bay when it was still a big hay field. This is the same Granite Bay, it’s not Bel Air or Beverly Hills. This house will require at least a full time gardener and housekeeper. There’s no real guest cottage or suite and what about security? People who make north of a million a year don’t want to live in a glass house! How would you secure this place? I have a cheap SimpliSafe system because I don’t really have anything to steal. No one is following me home to do a home invasion robbery. Not after I buy a steak at Walmart and two cans of chopped clams.

          This house is currently completely not secured. And it’s in Granite Bay.

      1. No joke. She needs the new property for new YT content. She bit off WAY more than she can chew. Just for starters, she doesn’t understand that the propane tank is where it is for ease of truck delivery and that the front field where she wants to plant a formal ornamental garden is likely the septic system’s leach field. On this morning’s video, she was looking at the 10-zone irrigation system and found a major leak in one of the zones. And all of this relies on a well in Davis, CA. Meanwhile, she’s focused on tearing out old shrubbery and painting. How long before buyer’s remorse sets in?

        1. This house is in DAVIS! It doesn’t even have public utility hookups except electricity. Only 3 beds and 3 baths with 2,068 sq ft? It’s a cheaply constructive tract home in the middle of nowhere. Now I’ve heard of wealthy doctors having country homes on small hobby farms, but this is definitely not that!

          This ditz is really a ditz.

          1. Davis, CA is the luxe area above the flood plains west of Sacramento, and home to leafy, tree lined UC Davis. However, it goes rural quickly in any direction in just a few minutes.

          2. tract home

            I’m not sure about that. The foundation is raised. Look at steps up to the front door. Part of the main building is also an ADU. Davis Ditz thought that the A in ADU was for adult and that the home was built in the 90s. By the looks of that zigzag planter in the front and everything else, I’m guessing the 60s or 70s.

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