Relying On Capricious Luck Will Only Invoke Murphy’s Law
A weekend topic starting with the Modesto Bee in California. “Joyce Fritz, founder of 12 Doors Real Estate and her team ran statistics with different resources to determine an accurate median starter home price in Modesto, she said. Data from RPR showed the median list price of starter homes in the city is $495,000. The median sales price is $440,000. ‘I think that the benefit of being a homeowner versus a renter is it’s probably, historically, the single greatest way to build wealth in America,’ Fritz said. ‘Unless you are going to become an investor in some other way. I tell (renters), ‘You’re paying the mortgage, just not your own. You’re just going to be stuck in the cycle of not owning something that has an appreciating value.'”
Mansion Global. “A more than 13-acre California estate has slashed its price by $9 million, bringing its new asking price to just under $40 million. Located about 60 miles south of Los Angeles in Laguna Niguel, California, the home has been on and off the market since February 2022, when it first listed for $50 million, The Wall Street Journal reported. Located on the largest lot at Bear Brand Ranch Custom Estates, the house was most recently listed in early July for $48.995 million, listing records show, and assigned its new price last week.”
KTXL in California. “Higher housing inventory and lower demand have contributed to a slight decrease in the average cost of rent in Sacramento for the first time in 13 years, a study shows. ‘We (Sacramento) were at a 3% vacancy rate a year ago. Now we’re at a 5.5% vacancy rate,’ said. Colliers research director Bob Shanahan said the million dollar question is ‘Why is there less demand?’ He speculated that the bay area migration into the Sacramento market may have reversed because of major technology companies calling employees back to the office.”
The Faribault Daily News in Minnesota. “So far, Faribault and Owatonna are on track to issue significantly fewer new housing construction permits this year than they did last year. Local communities have proven adept at getting new multifamily housing built with help from the state and tax increment financing districts, so much that Faribault builder Rick Cashin said the multifamily housing market has ‘softened.’ ‘A lot of multifamily housing is being built in Faribault — probably a little bit too much,’ Cashin said. “We own 100+ apartments in Faribault and we’re noticing that the market is starting to soften.'”
The Oklahoman. “Oklahoma City is seeing developers hit with cost spikes putting projects on the cusp of cancellation. Clay Farha is trying to restart work on Classen Marquette at 1111 Classen Drive. Plans called for a four-story building with restaurants and retail on the first floor topped with three floors of apartments. Farha said his project also was hit hard by interest costs and that construction will start at the earliest in 2024, at the latest in 2025. ‘What cash flows at 4% doesn’t cash flow at 8%,’ Farha said. ‘And what’s really hurting are the interest rates and construction costs.'”
The Dallas Morning News. “Texas apartment builders are putting the brakes on construction after years of booming building starts. But Dallas-Fort Worth still leads the state in recent apartment starts. Apartment starts in Texas’ biggest metro areas fell by more than 70% in the most recent quarter compared with average building volumes during the last two years, according to Institutional Property Advisors. Still, the 3,200 apartments started in D-FW in the second quarter were equal to those in the rest of Texas’ major metro areas combined, according to the report. Builders in the most recent quarter started 1,400 units in Austin, 1,110 in Houston and 700 apartments in San Antonio during the period.”
“Deliveries of new apartments in major Texas markets will continue for more than a year because of the thousands of rental units already under development. ‘Dallas-Fort Worth’s 72,900 apartments under construction — the most anywhere in the U.S. — will grow the North Texas market’s inventory by 8%,’ according to the researchers. ‘Before we get to 2025′s slowdown in apartment deliveries, the key metros in Texas will add further big blocks of rental housing during the remainder of this year and during 2024.’ Two North Texas markets lead the state in current apartment building, with 10,430 rental units underway in the Allen-McKinney area and 8,650 new units on the way in Frisco. Denton and the central Dallas area also made the list of the 10 busiest Texas apartment building markets, according to Institutional Property Advisors. Less than 7% of D-FW apartments were vacant at midyear, increasing only slightly since before the pandemic.”
The Daily Astorian. “After identifying vacancies as a critical problem last fall, the Northwest Oregon Housing Authority still has a significant number of empty units despite a waiting list that can take people years to climb. During a housing authority board meeting this month, staff reported an 88% occupancy rate across the properties the agency manages, meaning 12% of the 157 units at eight properties are sitting empty. ‘All we hear is the shortage of housing, the shortage of affordable housing, and people are desperate for housing,’ said Commissioner David Oser, who represents Clatsop County on the housing authority’s board. ‘And yet, it’s like, when you offer it, it’s hard to find anyone to take you up on it. There’s obviously some kind of disconnect here.'”
My Northwest in Washington. “Dozens of landlords handcuffed by Seattle’s coddling of nightmare tenants is leading to a troubling trend: The landlords are ditching Seattle. ‘It is so bad that people are just selling their properties and leaving in droves,’ landlord Charlotte Thistle told The Jason Rantz Show. Thistle points to 17 new laws implemented by local lawmakers over the last several years as being part of the problem. These measures were pitched as ways to mitigate the threat of ‘evil corporate landlords,’ but Thistle says they end up hurting small property owners who are trying to provide affordable housing options. She said data shows nearly one-quarter of available rental units provided by small landlords being taken off the Seattle-area market.”
“The eviction process has been slowly molded over the years to favor tenants. But they treat honest, good-faith tenants the same as irresponsible scoundrels. ‘It’s just so bureaucratic and burdensome that it can take a year and $20,000 in legal fees to evict the person who’s creating a serious problem,’ Thistle said. The Jason Rantz Show on KTTH previously chronicled the story of Jason Roth, a small landlord who is battling to get his home back from a nightmare tenant who was allegedly listing the property on Airbnb without paying any rent. Roth is still months away from an eviction hearing.”
The Commercial Observer. “A second quarter 2023 U.S. capital markets report from Newmark found CRE debt origination volumes have declined by 52 percent year-over-year, and that the current market has 32 percent fewer lenders than it did at this time last year. Moreover, while private equity sits on a record $219 billion of dry powder, that might not be enough to stave off the wave of $625 billion in CRE debt maturing over the next three years. As lending volumes have collapsed, equity markets have also stalled, with transaction volumes muted. Investment sales declined 62 percent year over year, making the first half of 2023 the weakest half since 2013.”
“‘The values of assets are falling with the result that not only do potential buyers and sellers face a still volatile outlook, but buyers especially are wary of catching a falling knife,’ the report concluded. ‘This is even more the case given the large number of buildings are on their way to becoming distressed. Loans will need to be restructured before these assets can trade.'”
The Globe and Mail. “To say demand for private mortgages has risen would be the mortgage understatement of 2023. The higher interest rates go, the more desperate some Canadians are to get financed or refinanced. In just 10 quarters through September, 2022 – the latest national data from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. – private mortgage market share surged 45 per cent. It now accounts for more than one in 10 Canadian mortgages. Private mortgages are short-term financing products for people who can’t qualify for traditional mortgages. They’re offered by smaller companies and involve higher rates and fees in exchange for more flexibility compared to traditional banks. These loans are usually provided by mortgage investment corporations and individual private lenders.”
“The problem with private lenders is cost. They sell mainly one-year interest-only loans, and in return for looser approval guidelines, their rates can be much more than 300 basis points above bank rates for uninsured mortgages. And then there are the fees. You’ll typically pay at least 200 bps to the lender and another 150-plus bps to the mortgage broker to get private financing. These days, it’s not uncommon for private borrowers to cough up four to five percentage points in total fees. That’s on top of marked-up closing and legal fees.”
“Unlike regular brokers, LenderBidding sticks mainly to mortgage investment corporations. It doesn’t deal with all the biggest institutional non-prime lenders (which offer lower costs, assuming you qualify) and hard-money individual private lenders (which often offer more flexibility than MICs). But the company says it’s working to ramp up its ability to recommend such lenders in cases where they’re more suited to the borrower. ‘Private or MIC lenders are always a last resort,’ says LenderBidding chief executive officer Jason Geall. ‘You don’t want to be stuck with a private forever because, at that point, you’re just burning through equity. Eventually, the music stops, and no chairs are left for the borrower.'”
The Telegraph in the UK. “It’s hardly what you would expect in today’s market, which feels better suited to gazundering (a buyer suddenly lowering their offer to a seller, typically just before exchange) than gazumping. Each week yields more bad news: construction companies are going bust faster than any time in a decade and rising mortgage rates have seen home sales, and prices, fall sharply – the 3.8 per cent annual price drop last month reported by Nationwide was the steepest since 2009.”
“One buyer for whom a price cut changed little is Sonia Jones. She first put her Chiswick family home on the market in September 2022, for £1.85 million, to downsize to a smaller, new-build home in Brentford. But, despite knocking £100,000 off the price, she has still not had an offer she will consider. With her new home, she now has two mortgages; nonetheless, she has decided to take the Chiswick home off the market for a while.”
“‘What’s frustrating is that it’s been such a beautiful home,’ she says. ‘It backs on to an old church, so no one can build there, and the river is very near. I had two families at the beginning who it felt just right for but since then I just haven’t had many viewings. I’ve had four offers, but they all want £100,000 or £200,000 off – I wouldn’t do that.'”
“When John’s [not his real name] mortgage came up for renewal earlier this year on his house in Stroud Green, north London, he faced a monthly payment hike from £1,667 to £5,500. He and his wife, who both work in creative industries, found the financial prospect oppressive, he says. ‘It was a lovely house but it just wasn’t worth killing ourselves for financially.’ Their sale was fraught: the buyer of their Stroud Green home dropped their offer a few days before exchange, by £50,000. ‘But by then, all the other people with offers had moved on so we decided to take it anyway,’ he says.”
ABC News in Australia. “Would-be home builders in regional Victoria are more cautious than ever about who they choose to build with, real estate agents say, as yet another construction company struggles against strong economic headwinds. Harmac Group entered voluntary administration this week, with administrators appointed to oversee the restructure and construction projects paused for the next five weeks. This meant tools would be downed on 50 sites under construction — 15 in Ballarat, 21 in Bendigo, 11 in Geelong, with the remainder in Melbourne.”
“Ray White Ballarat director Will Munroe said he counted an increase in land blocks for sale in the area, as people who had purchased plots during the pandemic looked to offload them due to the increased cost of construction. For land that had not yet received a title, Mr Munroe said people used sunset clauses so they could hand the block back to the developer and have their deposit returned. ‘There’s a lot of resale blocks hitting the market because people just don’t want to go through the hassle of building because it costs too much,’ he said.”
Voice of America. “For years, China’s property market has been a bubble. The property bubble, however, burst in late 2021 when China Evergrande Group, one of the country’s biggest property developers, defaulted on debt which rose to $340 billion by the end of last year. This month, another major developer, Country Garden, defaulted on millions of dollars of interest payments linked to two offshore bonds and warned of a net loss. Other developers could also be in trouble. President Xi Jinping is unlikely to follow the example of previous administrations, which pumped money ‘like crazy’ into the sector accounting for about 30% of the world’s second-largest economy during the last big property market downturn in 2008, according to Shanghai-based economist Andy Xie.”
“VOA: So, there were early signs of the property market trouble in offshore bond markets? Xie: Rich people basically got a haircut already. Developers basically told them you have to extend the deadline. When I have money, I’ll pay you. When I don’t, tough luck. These buyers are mainly private banking clients who are rich and buy high-risk bond funds but have no rights in China. We don’t know how much money is owed to them, but it’s hundreds of billions of dollars.”
“But the government is not giving them money. Why? The banks won’t lend when they know the risk is too high. If you bring the bubble back, you create a bigger problem for yourself tomorrow. This government is not facing political opposition, it wants to go on forever, so it’s thinking, why bring problems to yourself to make the bubble bigger and threaten yourself later? This is what a lot of analysts don’t understand. Politics has changed. Xi Jinping is the owner of all the problems in China and this is his calculation. Domestically, the property developers owe 39 trillion renminbi in debt, according to a ratings agency. I think that is a low-ball estimate. I would expect a lot more. Basically, whatever debt is due, they have no money to pay back.”
From TiPost on China. “After Country Garden, a ‘model real estate company,’ was mired in a debt crisis , the state-owned enterprise Sino-Ocean Group repeat the same mistake. If the market continues its downturn, more real estate companies will default on bond interest payment. It takes about two years from pre-sales to the completion of residential buildings. Most of the construction costs, material costs, and taxes can be postponed, which means that a large amount of capital can be used for free for two years.”
“By repeating such steps and developing more and more projects, the amount of their capital keeps growing. However, the bosses don’t consider the fact that this high debt and high turnover approach also leads to higher risks. Large companies like Evergrande and Country Garden simply pursue scale and speed in third- and fourth-tier cities without pursuing profits. They develop land in large quantities, sacrificing profits to build up their capital pool. Then, they go to first- and second-tier cities to make profits.”
“What they could not see was that the real estate boom, created and fueled by the combined forces of China’s economic growth, urbanization process, supply-side reform, and a deluge of strong stimulus, was coming to an end. Under the pressure of ensuring delivery, local governments have resorted to the strategy of depositing pre-sales proceeds into supervised accounts. This means that the project company can only receive the money after delivering the houses. The company’s headquarters has become an empty shell. The previously abundant resources are now lacking, and the headquarters are helpless.”
“As a result, the accelerated liquidity crunch of real estate companies led to debt defaults, trust crises, hindered sales, and the inability to sell assets even at a discount. The collapse of real estate companies seems to be a liquidity crisis, where the cash inflow is unable to cover all expenses, especially interest payments, and once the remaining funds are exhausted, defaults occur. At this point, there may not be any better solutions. It is merely a matter of who will bear the cost. Is the market to blame? The company cannot simply rely on the expectation of a forever buoyant market when it comes to make strategic and operational plans.”
“Whether it is fortune or misfortune, it all comes from the mind. All troubles are the result of self-inflicted actions. Frankly speaking, relying on toxic solutions to quench thirst will inevitably lead to poisoning; relying on capricious luck will only invoke Murphy’s Law. The debt crisis of real estate companies is a result of their own problems.”
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The last link is worth reading in full. I don’t know how that got out from under pooh bears iron grip.
‘What’s frustrating is that it’s been such a beautiful home,’ she says. ‘It backs on to an old church, so no one can build there, and the river is very near. I had two families at the beginning who it felt just right for but since then I just haven’t had many viewings. I’ve had four offers, but they all want £100,000 or £200,000 off – I wouldn’t do that’
Hold yer ground Sonia, don’t give it away!
‘When John’s [not his real name] mortgage came up for renewal earlier this year on his house in Stroud Green, north London, he faced a monthly payment hike from £1,667 to £5,500. He and his wife, who both work in creative industries, found the financial prospect oppressive, he says. ‘It was a lovely house but it just wasn’t worth killing ourselves for financially.’ Their sale was fraught: the buyer of their Stroud Green home dropped their offer a few days before exchange, by £50,000. ‘But by then, all the other people with offers had moved on so we decided to take it anyway’
That’s the spirit buyer, lowball Johns a$$!
John will have the last laugh as the shack cratering hits terminal velocity.
‘the government is not giving them money. Why? The banks won’t lend when they know the risk is too high. If you bring the bubble back, you create a bigger problem for yourself tomorrow. This government is not facing political opposition, it wants to go on forever, so it’s thinking, why bring problems to yourself to make the bubble bigger and threaten yourself later? This is what a lot of analysts don’t understand. Politics has changed. Xi Jinping is the owner of all the problems in China and this is his calculation. Domestically, the property developers owe 39 trillion renminbi in debt, according to a ratings agency. I think that is a low-ball estimate. I would expect a lot more. Basically, whatever debt is due, they have no money to pay back’
Well Andy, this central planning is trickier than it sounds.
‘Xi Jinping is the owner of all the problems in China and this is his calculation’
Did you know this guy has no real formal education? They put a fancy university on his resume, but it’s not true. Look at his face as he inspects the troops. It’s like a milk cow.
I speak for milk cows who have no voice when I protest defamatory comparisons between the bovine stupidity on Xi’s face & the more knowing expressions one sees from Bessie the Cow.
5.35 trillion in USD if the google currency calculator is accurate.
“The banks won’t lend when they know the risk is too high.”
Remove the fed.gov guarantees, and a 3br/2ba spec no more than 10-miles from work would only set ‘ya back $140k because the bankers know that’s all a family can honestly afford.
Question regarding yesterday’s post:
Is there any big city in North America that does NOT have a homeless issue?
I don’t think so. We’ve got 3 judges no one has ever heard of destroying large and small cities with a ridiculously arbitrary ruling about bed numbers.
Why, that could be a threat to our democracy!
I was in Cleveland in May of this year, drove all over the city and suburbs and saw ZERO encampments, and only a handful of highway off ramp panhandlers.
People I know who live there tell me there are some small encampments.
You gotta go where the gravy is…
Then one would need to live in Cleveland, ugh.
NAR harassment, retaliation and evasion revealed in Times exposé
In interviews with 29 current and former NAR employees and former leaders, including 19 who said they endured sexual harassment on the job, The New York Times described wrongdoing running through the organization…
https://www.inman.com/2023/08/26/nar-harassment-retaliation-and-evasion-revealed-in-times-expose/
One woman reported that Parcell placed his hands down his pants in front of her, while another woman received unsolicited lewd photos and texts from him, including a picture of his crotch. A third woman disclosed a consensual relationship with Parcell that turned sour, resulting in alleged retaliation once it ended.
Janelle Brevard, one of the women who had a relationship with Parcell, filed a lawsuit alleging racial and sexual discrimination and harassment against the organization.
“It is our practice to fully investigate all claims that are brought to our attention and take action, as warranted,” NAR vice president of communications Mantill Williams told Inman in June. “We reject the claims filed in this lawsuit and we will vigorously defend against them.”
Despite a history of complaints of sexual harassment, discrimination, and retribution by Parcell and other leaders, the NAR allegedly failed to address the issues effectively, with dozens of former leaders and employees within the organization corroborating the claims to the Times.
Several women detailed an alleged culture of intimidation within NAR that discouraged reporting and speaking up against harassment.
Stephanie Quinn, the former director of business meetings and events, claimed that Parcell often sought physical contact, including late-night meetings with younger colleagues, and questioned her authority when she resisted his advances. In another instance, Amy Swida, the NAR’s director of business meetings and events, filed an internal complaint of sexual harassment or gender discrimination by Parcell, saying he was cruel and condescending to her after she became pregnant.
“I’m scared every day coming to work,” Swida said.
Parcell denied all allegations of sexual harassment and inappropriate behavior, asserting that he has never reached out to anyone younger or late at night. The NAR team responsible for investigating such matters reported never receiving a complaint from Quinn. The accusations, however, have led to scrutiny of the organization’s leadership and its handling of harassment claims.
The NAR, with 1.5 million members, holds immense influence over the American housing industry. However, its leadership structure has faced criticism for being predominantly male, despite the industry’s majority female demographic. Even its guidance on harassment appeared to place the onus on victims, recommending they address colleagues’ inappropriate language themselves.
Last month, an anonymous letter signed by a coalition of 37 “Realtor leaders” was sent to more than 20 NAR past presidents, called for Parcell to resign.
“This is an intimidating process. None of us are willing to put our names on anything,” the letter says, according to the Times. “We are in a crisis management situation, and the members MUST speak out.”
Another female employee who complained about Parcell put it bluntly. “If people don’t speak up, it’s never going to end,” Jennifer Braun, NAR’s senior events producer, told the outlet.
https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/08/26/kenny-parcell-accused-of-sexual-harassment-creating-toxic-culture-at-nar/
‘The problem with private lenders is cost. They sell mainly one-year interest-only loans, and in return for looser approval guidelines, their rates can be much more than 300 basis points above bank rates for uninsured mortgages. And then there are the fees. You’ll typically pay at least 200 bps to the lender and another 150-plus bps to the mortgage broker to get private financing. These days, it’s not uncommon for private borrowers to cough up four to five percentage points in total fees. That’s on top of marked-up closing and legal fees’
‘Private or MIC lenders are always a last resort…You don’t want to be stuck with a private forever because, at that point, you’re just burning through equity. Eventually, the music stops, and no chairs are left for the borrower’
Sound lending!
Interest only loans where have we heard that one before hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
‘while private equity sits on a record $219 billion of dry powder’
Yes, dry powder to the rescue!
‘that might not be enough to stave off the wave of $625 billion in CRE debt maturing over the next three years…’The values of assets are falling with the result that not only do potential buyers and sellers face a still volatile outlook, but buyers especially are wary of catching a falling knife’
Well fudge.
How are vaccines related to housing?
In 2021, if you worked for an employer with 50+ employees, the government attempted to mandate that you get injected with experimental mRNA poison, or get fired from your job.
No job –> no paycheck –> no money for mortgage or rent.
#DoNotComply
And better yet, actively resist.
Go tell ten people you know in real life that covid vaccines are poison, they’re not vaccines, and they’re designed and intended to kill you.
We’re not letting this topic fade away…
Related article, one of those “two weeks to flatten the curve” things we were assured of.
The Federalist — Prepare For The Generation Of Permanently Scarred Covid Babies (8/25/2023):
“the staggering numbers we are seeing of unhappy, not-fully-functioning teens are likely only a preview of what is to come with Gen Alpha.
The generation after Gen Z, these babies and young kids of the pandemic, spent their formative years in a highly abnormal society. This was the generation that was raised under the thumb of Anthony Fauci and the World Health Organization, which simplified and suppressed the world into a zero-sum game: either you die of Covid, or you don’t.
This youngest generation observed all new forms of unkind, unusual, and unsocial societal behaviors. They were warned to be wary of other kids in the classroom at a time when one of the most important inputs to their learning and development was play. They lost valuable time in a classroom as teachers unions put on bizarre dances in attempts to extend remote learning. This generation experienced far less physical touch and lost out on the baseline opportunities to develop face perception for emotional connection and understanding.
With the already extra-fragile attitudes of Gen Z, the new paranoias and stressors imposed on Gen Alpha were not quelled simply when the masks came off. We are left to wonder: Are we doomed to a generation of socially stunted bubble babies?”
YES.
“What is clear is that the enduring consequences of Covid-era decisions on this youngest generation’s mental and emotional fitness are only starting to bubble to the surface. Pediatric speech disorder diagnosis is more than double pre-pandemic levels. Math and reading scores have dropped to the lowest in decades. Scientific understanding of the irreversible effects of social isolation on the prefrontal cortex has been hushed away.”
https://thefederalist.com/2023/08/25/prepare-for-the-generation-of-permanently-scarred-covid-babies/
Anthony Fauci = Josef Mengele
Another new fire in Hawaii.
Associated Press — Evacuation order lifted after firefighters douse Maui brush fire near site of deadly Lahaina blaze (8/26/2023):
“An evacuation order following a brush fire that burned 10 acres (4 hectares) on Maui was lifted by emergency officials Saturday.
The fire prompted Maui authorities to temporarily evacuate residents Saturday from a neighborhood of Lahaina, just a few miles from the site recently ravaged by blazes, before firefighters brought it under control.
The Maui County Emergency Management Agency announced in a social media post that the evacuation ended at 5 p.m. and residents could return home.
Firefighters doused flames from above using a helicopter and with hoses on the ground, said John Heggie, a spokesperson for Maui County’s Joint Information Center.”
https://news.yahoo.com/hawaii-authorities-evacuate-area-lahaina-002538814.html
It’s not “climate change” it’s arson.
Related article.
Associated Press — Two Arrested on Arson Charges for Allegedly Starting Greek Wildfires (8/26/2023):
“Greek fire department officials arrested two men on Saturday for allegedly deliberately starting wildfires as hundreds of firefighters battle blazes that have been blamed for 21 deaths.
One man was arrested on Evia for allegedly deliberately setting fire to dried grass in the island’s Karystos area. The fire department said the man confessed to having set four other fires in the area in July and August.
A second man was arrested in the Larissa area in central Greece, also for allegedly deliberately setting fire to dried vegetation. Judicial authorities were informed in both cases.
Officials have said arson has been to blame for several fires in Greece over the past week, although it is still unclear what sparked the country’s largest blazes, including one in the northeastern region of Evros and Alexandroupolis where nearly all the fire-attributed deaths have occurred, and another on the fringes of Athens.
“Some … arsonists are setting fires, endangering forests, property and above all human lives,” Climate Crisis and Civil Protection Minister Vassilis Kikilias said Thursday. “What is happening is not just unacceptable but despicable and criminal.”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/08/26/narrative-busting-two-arrested-on-arson-charges-for-allegedly-starting-greek-wildfires/
21 deaths?
Follow the money and it will lead to a Soros paycheck.
Related article from a week ago.
CBC — RCMP investigating 2 arson calls in Yellowknife as wildfire looms on city’s west flank:
“Yellowknife RCMP say they’ve charged four female youths with arson for trying to light a fire in a small green space on Burwash Drive in Yellowknife Tuesday night.
In a news release Wednesday morning, police said this is one of two instances of arson they are investigating in Yellowknife.
They said they got the call at around 11:21 p.m. about the youths. They arrested all four and seized aerosol cans and lighters. A nearby house also had a camera running, which captured the incident.
Police are still searching for two men suspected of starting a fire near Long Lake on the northwest side of the city Tuesday night.
Yellowknife RCMP say they’ve charged four female youths with arson for trying to light a fire in a small green space on Burwash Drive in Yellowknife Tuesday night.
In a news release Wednesday morning, police said this is one of two instances of arson they are investigating in Yellowknife.
They said they got the call at around 11:21 p.m. about the youths. They arrested all four and seized aerosol cans and lighters. A nearby house also had a camera running, which captured the incident.
Police are still searching for two men suspected of starting a fire near Long Lake on the northwest side of the city Tuesday night.
RCMP said officers spotted the Long Lake fire around 10:03 p.m. and called in the Yellowknife Fire Department. They also brought in police dogs in an attempt to track two men reported to have run from the scene wearing black clothing, but haven’t found the suspects yet.”
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/rcmp-investigating-2-arson-calls-in-yellowknife-as-wildfire-looms-on-citys-west-flank/ar-AA1flY5v
Wearing black clothing?
Antifa earning those Soros paychecks.
A reader sent these in:
mortgage rates are too high already in real terms, you need unemployment and shrinking incomes and your supply problem will fix itself
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1695343915883192790
Strong in-migration continues in:
Houston
Jacksonville
Charlotte
San Antonio
Fort Worth
Nashville
Very negative domestic out-migration continues in:
East Bay Area
Orange County
San Diego
San Jose
Miami
DC
Boston
Chicago
San Francisco
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1695173992083009658
The housing market has deteriorated rapidly
Buying conditions are at levels only seen 2 times since 1960
Both instances saw severe recessions
https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1695092417270301076
FED’S MESTER: WE HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT ATTAINING 2% INFLATION WITHOUT DAMAGE TO THE REAL ECONOMY.
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1695469726279835663
Biden got booed in Lake Tahoe 🤣
https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1695301806216396954
LOVED this comment, which applies to all the billionaire CRE guys who’ve been crying for rate cuts in the media lately. They’re afraid capitalism might be coming for them.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1664650009860530178
Remember that one time, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Band Camp?
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1429106698816397312
Hey, you know who WAS invited to “the Fed’s mountain retreat”? The WSJ Fed mouthpiece who wrote a book depicting the people at the Fed’s mountain retreat as heroes.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1695093486746292511
The fact that I am still seeing friends post this on Facebook shows that the lag effects have a long, long way to go. They’re in super late in the economic cycle but my god who’s advising these folks?
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1695222342262132868
“The housing market has deteriorated rapidly
Buying conditions are at levels only seen 2 times since 1960
Both instances saw severe recessions”
BUT IT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!
Economy.
It’s a whistling past the graveyard article and a weak attempt to convince you not to dump all your stocks (disclosure: I have dumped most of my stocks).
CNBC — Household debt is at an all-time high, but 2008 was still worse, report finds (8/25/2023):
“By some measures, Americans have never been more in the red.
In the second quarter of 2023, total credit card debt surpassed $1 trillion for the first time ever, which helped bring total household debt to $17.06 trillion, also a fresh record, according to the New York Federal Reserve.
But adjusted for inflation, credit card debt was higher when the economy bottomed out in 2008, according to a recent analysis by WalletHub.
“Inflation is masking the fact that people are actually managing their debt better than they have in the past,” said Odysseas Papadimitriou, WalletHub’s CEO.
“When you account for the massive impact inflation has on balances, as well as the fact that debt-to-deposit levels are roughly 50% below the peak, U.S. households are actually in a lot better shape financially than it seems at first glance,” Papadimitriou said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/25/household-debt-is-at-an-all-time-high-but-2008-was-still-worse.html
Gas hit $4 a gallon in summer 2008 before Lehman collapsed in September, but I do not remember a 50% increase in the price of food as we have now seen since January 2021.
Americans are experiencing the worst inflation since Jimmy Carter was in the White House, and the wheels are falling off the bus.
I could create a 100+ post thread just about how inflation and “supply chain issues” from CCP Flu have negatively affected doing electrical work, whether new construction or renovation / tenant finish.
Remember 2019 when we had a mostly functioning economy?
“Household debt is at an all-time high, but 2008 was still worse, report finds”
So much wrong with that statement. First, we are not at a comparable point to ‘08 in this boom/bust cycle. We’re more like ‘06 right now. Second, the fact that they’re comparing it to ‘08 should set off all sort of alarms.
If household debt is currently at an all time high, how could 2008 be worse?
Economy.
MarketWatch — ‘The sharks are still there.’ Stock market’s decline is just beginning, this top fund manager says (8/26/2023):
“If August’s stock-market weakness has you concerned, brace yourself because it’s going to get a lot worse.
That’s the outlook of Eli Salzmann, who manages the Neuberger Berman Large Cap Value Fund NPRTX. While most investors have migrated to the “soft landing” and “no landing” camps, Salzmann holds steadfast to his belief that a recession is on the way.
Why should you care what he thinks? Because where most mutual fund managers have a tough time beating the U.S. market, Salzmann’s $12.6 billion fund outperforms nicely over the past three- and 10 years, according to Morningstar Direct.
Much of that long-term outperformance comes from out-of-consensus forecasts about macro trends — like the one behind his current cautionary stance.
“The economy is heading south in the next six to nine months,” he told me in a recent interview. “Make sure your portfolio is very defensive and protects on the downside, because the downside isn’t going to be pretty.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sharks-are-still-there-stock-markets-decline-is-just-beginning-this-top-fund-manager-says-12cb6ad3?mod=home-page
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
Economy.
New York Post — LA’s smash-and-grab epidemic: Voters helped break California’s justice system (8/26/2023):
“Smash-and-grab robberies are happening in broad daylight at stores throughout California and no one seems to be doing anything to stop them.
California’s criminal-justice system is broken and state voters helped to break it.
But voters had help from deceitful activists and politicians who tricked them into thinking they were voting for greater public safety.
One of those deceivers is George Gascón, now district attorney of Los Angeles County, where nearly 10 million residents in 88 cities are living with the full consequences of the 2014 initiative Gascón co-authored, Proposition 47.
Under Proposition 47, property thefts valued at less than $950 became an automatic misdemeanor, even if the stolen item was a handgun.
The measure also made incarcerated felons eligible for resentencing and release if their past crimes retroactively qualified as misdemeanors.
Voters had an opportunity in November 2020 to approve an initiative that would have reformed Propositions 47 and 57 by reclassifying specific crimes to allow tougher penalties.
This was Proposition 20.
The initiative would have helped undo so much of its predecessors’ damage, but it went down in defeat, 62% to 38%.
Gascón was elected district attorney in November 2020 after promising voters he would reduce both crime and costs to taxpayers.
On his first day in office, Gascón announced “directives” to end cash bail, ban prosecutors from seeking enhanced sentences, and stop prosecuting first-time offenders for various “nonviolent” crimes.
LAPD Chief Michel Moore said he blames the DA’s policies for “weakening the consequences under the law for many repeat offenders.”
At a news conference last week, reporters pummeled Gascón with questions about whether his policies were contributing to the wave of smash-and-grab robberies.
He glared at them and snapped that they didn’t have the facts.
Still, the facts are on the ground. “We feel like we can’t walk in our own neighborhoods anymore,” one former supporter of Gascón told The Post, “These criminals are not getting prosecuted — and they know it.”
https://nypost.com/2023/08/26/california-voters-are-to-blame-for-las-crime-epidemic/
George Soros.
Who is that? And why are globalist scum media so opposed to the public noticing, and discussing him?
Joe Biden and his ilk are coming for our window AC’s…..For our own good ,they say…..I find that the 8K window units with the eco on-off switch will do almost any fair size living area,and we are in the South ,with over 7 months of hot weather… an an old geezer can still man-handle the 8K size ones into a window ..(About $250) ..unlike the 10K ones, they’re to bulky….
They really are trying to destroy us , one step at a time…
They really are trying to destroy us , one step at a time
Death by a thousand cuts.
Salon — Many young people are devastated by climate change. But from despair springs action, study suggests (8/24/2023):
No link will be provided for this article.
“While it may seem paradoxical to both despair for the future and hope that one can change it, a recent study in the journal PLOS Global Public Health demonstrates that this attitude is quite common among young people today. Indeed, after surveying over 500 British young adults (between the ages of 16 and 24) for their views on climate change and life more generally, the researchers from Imperial College London and the University of Queensland found respondents feel motivated even as they also harbored negative thoughts about the future.
“Our work suggests that emotions linked to climate change may inspire action-taking, which has implications for how we communicate about climate change,” the authors write after pointing out that, despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, respondents remained “distressed about climate change.” They added, “Our findings also highlight the need for targeted, climate-aware psychosocial support to sustain young people’s climate engagement and mental health simultaneously.”
“The emotional responses that drive engagement in climate activism appear to have short-term positive impacts such as finding supportive communities and hope in collective action,” the authors conclude. “We do not know whether maintaining climate distress may have negative consequences in the longer term.”
Maintaining climate distress?
“A 2017 report by the American Psychological Association defined “eco-anxiety” as “a chronic fear of environmental doom.” Although eco-anxiety is not a diagnosable mental health condition, it is widely used by mental health professionals as an informal term for people depressed or anxious about the future due to climate change.”
Note that the age demographic surveyed has never not had the internet, they don’t know how life existed before it.
Their “distress” will be “maintained” by the globalist scum media / social media.
Blocking roads and destroying valuable works of art wasn’t enough, they’ve moved on to arson now…
surprised no one is talking about better.com IPO collapse
Aurora stock closed at $17.44 on Aug. 23, the night before its merger with Better. By Thursday’s close, the stock was at $1.15. On Friday, the stock closed at $1.19.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-valuation-reset-hits-the-ipo-market-as-better-stock-crashes-90-after-debut-141559314.html?.tsrc=fin-srch
Some local news.
Colorado Sun — Colorado’s quirky mountain town cultures are the latest species to hit the endangered list (8/27/2023):
“There’s trouble in paradise. It’s happening in Bozeman, Jackson Hole, Park City and all across Colorado.
In fact, our state’s signature attraction — our treasured Rocky Mountain lifestyle — is critically endangered.
Colorado’s sweet, charming mountain towns are under siege from climate change, hordes of outdoors enthusiasts and eccentric real estate investors who think the laws of the land and of nature don’t apply to them.
A recent story in the New York Times bemoans the crushing impact that “wanderlust-filled white-collar workers” have had on mountain communities as they have “pounced” on available housing so they can work remotely or score a second income by transforming affordable housing into out-of-reach short-term rental income property.
Long-time residents in the high country recall a moment not so long ago when moose wandered through the willows, bald eagles nested along the neighborhood creek and young people actually could find an apartment they could afford with their income from a job as a ski instructor in the winter and a bartender gig in the summer.
Alas, those days are gone.
Recent employment reports found 190,000 job openings across the state, and all it takes is a drive through the resort areas with “Help Wanted” signs posted everywhere to see where a lot of these opportunities are. Still, they’ll remain unfilled until the affordable housing crisis can be addressed.
And, I know this sounds alarmist, but it probably can’t be fixed.”
https://coloradosun.com/2023/08/27/colorado-mountain-towns-opinion-carman/
The article continues and concludes with some sponsored content climate alarmism.
Regarding the economy, CCP Flu and short term rentals have destroyed the state of Colorado.
Parasite class equity locusts in Crested Butte have to wait 45 minutes to get a latte. They did this to themselves…
Income taxes.
Income taxes, inflation, and economy.
Russia Today — US lawmakers rail against more Ukraine aid (8/26/2023):
“Politico obtained a draft copy of a letter compiled by Senator JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and addressed to Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young. It is dated September 5 and has been left unsigned as the Republican duo is attempting to gain the support of other lawmakers, according to Politico.
The letter chides the * administration for failing to provide Congress with a detailed account of US government-wide expenditures related to the Ukraine conflict.
The lawmakers also stressed that the need for a cross-cutting report on the matter had become even more pressing after the Pentagon recently acknowledged a $6.2 billion “accounting error” in Ukraine aid.
Vance and Roy pointed out that *’s assertion that the US would back Ukraine “as long as it takes” implies “an open-ended commitment to supporting the war in Ukraine of an indeterminate nature,” arguing that both the American public and Congress have been left in the dark as to the administration’s ultimate goal.
“What is our strategy, and what is the president’s exit plan?” the lawmakers asked, stressing that it would be “an absurd abdication” of congressional responsibility to approve the $24 billion aid package until these questions are answered.”
https://www.rt.com/news/581870-gop-object-ukraine-aid/
An absurd abdication?
How much has your standard of living declined since January 2021 as result of the inflation created by deficit spending?
Related content.
Streaming C-SPAN’s Washington Journal now and the guest John Herbst is former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine and now a Senior Director at the Atlantic Council.
What is the Atlantic Council? From their website:
“Driven by our mission of “shaping the global future together,” the Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan organization that galvanizes US leadership and engagement in the world, in partnership with allies and partners, to shape solutions to global challenges.
The Atlantic Council promotes constructive leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the Atlantic Community’s central role in meeting global challenges. The Council provides an essential forum for navigating the dramatic economic and political changes defining the twenty-first century by informing and galvanizing its uniquely influential network of global leaders. The Atlantic Council—through the papers it publishes, the ideas it generates, the future leaders it develops, and the communities it builds—shapes policy choices and strategies to create a more free, secure, and prosperous world.”
Translation: uniparty war pigs swirling through the revolving door of the State Department and the Military Industrial Complex.
People with soft, soft hands, who have never once done a day of actual work in their life.
Soft, soft, city hands.
Hands drenched in the blood of the thousands of dead Ukrainians since the launch of the failed counter-offensive.
“Data from RPR showed the median list price of starter homes in the city is $495,000.”
In Modesto?!! half a million dollars on a starter home on anything between Modesto and Bakersfield is just lunacy. Just thinking of living anywhere on the 99 corridor makes me want to put a gun to my head.
To give California an enema Modesto is where to insert the nozzle.
Back when bubble #1 burst the unemployment rate in Modesto shot up to 16%, and that was on the good side of town.
Something tells me that at least part of that 16% found themselves unable to keep paying off their mortgages, and ended up losing their homes to their lenders.
Stockton makes Modesto look nice. Stick the nozzle right up Stockton’s asz and turn it on full blast – blow out the entire thing.
It’s sad because Modesto, Stockton, Fresno, etc ought to be decent places to live. A lot of money flows through there and some very rich people live on the outskirts. If things weren’t so mismanaged in CA they would be known as an iconic Hwy 99 economic zone instead of the festering hellholes they’ve become.
A longtime friend from San Jose moved to Modesto, so I always dropped in when returning from Lake Tahoe. I saw him put out a garden hose with a sprinkler attachment, and he had a pair of channel lock pliers. A great mechanic, I asked why don’t you replace the rubber washer? He said that he has to tighten the hose to the faucet to keep it from being stolen.
“You’re paying the mortgage, just not your own. You’re just going to be stuck in the cycle of not owning something that has an appreciating value.’”
The fact that these clowns can still spout this line and people buy it is boggling. Never mind the millions of people who got wiped out by investing in real estate over the last decade.
They will never mention the risk that falling home prices may leave you trapped in a house with an underwater mortgage, unable to sell without handing over money to the lender, and losing all of those illusory home equity wealth gains you thought were a God-given right of home ownership.
You’re just going to be stuck in the cycle of not owning something that has an appreciating value.’”
Until that Fedbux “value” starts melting away like FB tears in the rain.
I’ve had four offers, but they all want £100,000 or £200,000 off – I wouldn’t do that.’”
Mr. Market doesn’t care what you would or wouldn’t do, Greedhead Sonia. Either get to sawin’ and slashin’ or your “special listing” sits unsold.
If you bring the bubble back, you create a bigger problem for yourself tomorrow.
Communist central planners, whether in Beijing or Sacramento, are utterly clueless when it comes to economics.
Ok, so Dr Bartlett , one of the censored Drs who was saving lives by cheap meds during Covid had some things to say.
In summary,
-They are bringing back masks and other Covid restrictions in 4 increments.
-The mask/lockdowns was first used in China, and was adopted by WHO as the model to combat the new novel virus. This was adopted in the West, in spite of it proven to be useless in combating Covid. Now they want to bring back this useless health policy that has caused unspeakable harm.
-They want US population to take the new Covid Booster, that’s suppose to combat the current Covid mutations.
Dr Michael Yeadon conveyed a long time ago that when you get a virus, the evidence shows your protected from the mutations for over 17 years. He also said that the medical system knew that “elder vaccination” was ineffective in the very old age bracket based on immune system dysfunction with advanced age. But, the cheap meds had a high cure rate, even with the elderly.
The medical system censored and supressed these cheap medicine cures for the expiermental vaccines that they marketed as safe and effective, when they didnt even test for it preventing transmission. They had the evidence of 1200 potential side effects from fake vaccine, but informed consent was just take the vaccine, your job is threatened if you don’t comply, its a disease of the unvaccinated.
So, in spite of overwhelming evidence of a failed vaccines, masks ,and lockdowns expierment, they are gearing up to force the failed health policies again.
There is also talk of Climate Change restrictions being implemented as a emergency, in spite of censored dispute by 1500 climate scientists, that declared to UN in writing ” there is no Climate Change Emergency.”
While Florida is moving to ban the fake vaccine in that State, in other States some schools are already shutting down and mask mandate are being implemented.
Evidence shows they are sitting up for the mass testing as well as drive in vaccination sites at target and Wal-Mart , etc.
I predict they will soon roll out the China Model of Panademic response.
China population never took the Western vaccine, and they had one of the lowest rates of alledged Covid deaths in World, in spite of being the alledged ground zero for Covid.
Trust your Government and Medical system, the World Health Organization, and the CCP, and Bill Gates the biggest funder to WHO.
Dr Bartlett said the” medical system has been highjacked” and money incentives and threat of job loss, created widespread mal practice in hospitals in treatment of Covid.
And a question I have is why are people vaxxed or unvaxxed getting Covid numerous times ? This defies any historic evidence of herd natural immunity, or even vaccine immunity.
Just saying. And this post relates to housing in that another lockdown forced on us by Government would effect the economy and probably polish off more small and medium business.
You’re paying the mortgage, just not your own. You’re just going to be stuck in the cycle of not owning something that has an appreciating value.’
So real estate is still red hotcakes and a sure road to riches, then?
U.S. mortgage applications plummet to near-30-year low
By Daniel J. Graeber
UPI Topic – Business – UPI.com Updated August 23, 2023 9:24 AM
With lending rates topping 7%, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that applications for a home loan hit the lowest level in nearly 30 years. The MBA found that mortgage applications declined 4.2% week-on-week over the seven-day period ending Aug. 18. Joel Kan, the association’s deputy chief economist, blamed the decline on rising interest rates. The rate on a 30-year, fixed-term mortgage stands at 7.31%, the highest level since December 2000. “Applications for home purchase mortgages dropped to their lowest level since April 1995, as homebuyers withdrew from the market due to the elevated rate environment and the erosion of purchasing power,” he said. “Low housing supply is also keeping home prices high in many markets, adding to the affordability hurdles buyers are facing.”
…
Read more at: https://www.modbee.com/news/business/article278530584.html#storylink=cpy
Modesto Housing Market
Homes for sale
City guide
The Modesto housing market is very competitive. Homes in Modesto receive 2 offers on average and sell in around 9 days. The median sale price of a home in Modesto was $444K last month, down 3.0% since last year. The median sale price per square foot in Modesto is $281, down 0.35% since last year.
…
https://www.redfin.com/city/12359/CA/Modesto/housing-market
“The Modesto housing market is very competitive.”
Likely due to being a bedroom community to Silicon Valley.
IMHO, real estate is going to crash big time because of all the factors that will crash it.
– Higher interest rates lack of affordable.
– Job loss creating less demand
– Potential new lockdowns destroying small and medium business reducing demand.
-Tight money market where lenders don’t want to make home loans.
– looming recession with inflation.
-Dysfunctional Governments turning previously liveable areas into not liveable.
-Rise in house insurance rates, or total withdraw of insurance.
– Projection that AI will take 40 to 50 % of jobs in 10 years, which would be reduction of demand for house purchases.
– Risk of Goverment mandates effecting private party rights of home ownership and collection of rents or eviction rights.
– Potential for some states to impose higher property taxes.
-Need of flexibility in going where the jobs are and not being trapped in a unsaleable house.
In other words, to many risks of real estate
crashing big time and being trapped .
I will say it over and over, flexibility will be the best thing to have in the world moving forward.
And in addition when you have Entities that want to force a One World Order, that doesnt want to recognize, rule of law, freedoms, constitution protections, that state “You will own nothing and be happy”, this adds a risk to ownership.
If these Entities are sucessful in their One World Order, who is to say they won’t force populations into 15 minute cities, and make other areas off limits.
In fact, in the 2020 sustainable earth sustainable earth documents, the plan was to move US populations to 5 City centers for their fraudulent emergencies.
But, while I think this plan will not be sucessful because its crazy, its still a risk factor in real estate. The 2030 and 2045 sustainable earth documents are even more crazy as they plan to have AI control everything.
The Money Elite also seems posed to buy up all the crashed and foreclosed on property, so they can be the great stakeholders of real estate, and farmland.
The Monopoly model of taking all the marbles. Destroy and bankrupt the public, destroy your competition and be the Stakeholders of world assets, in partnership with Governments.
Unbelievable intentions and plans by the Money Powers.
Come on, plans that Banks are going to dictate what your consumption can be. Those with the money will make the rules, apparently in the One World Order governance.
–
“….a chronic fear of environmental doom..”
Remember when AOC said we had 12 years until doomsday by “Climate Change.”
The real evidence shows that warmer cycles were beneficial to the earth, as well as higher co2 levels. Its the colder climate cycles going back thousands of years that created the most deaths, not warmer cycles.
Fraud science is behind the Climate Change emergency, and we know now just how bought off and extorted Science can be, by the Powers.
-Polar bear population is increasing not decreasing.
Hurricanes, fires and droughts have a overall decrease in last 50 years.
Totally false that 30 thousand species are going extinct yearly, they just made that one up.
– Given the end of “little ice age” a overall rise of oceans of about 7 inches in over 300 years.
Not really a temp increase since 1998. Temp increase is based on false models that have been debunked by censored Scientists.
Blaming CO2 for man made Climate Change doesnt hold water and C02 is vitality necessary for earth, and to much of a reduction will cause a disaster of epic porporations to all life forms.
Earth has gotten 40 % greener because of CO2, and reducing co2 would create more brown desert like globe.
No credit given to the sun cycles in climate change, yet Bill Gates talks about blocking out the Sun, which would be a disaster for earth in all that depends on Sun for life.
IMHO, they had to attack CO2, because they had to attack humans, animals, crops, fossil fuels that all emit CO2, to justify this attack on humanity as being the cause of Climate Change.
But, they allow no dispute or debate to their Climate Change doom, just as they allowed no dispute to their Covid narratives. This is not legitimate , and evidence is mounting that these are contrived emergencies for Entities to take over human populations and enslave and control them , and at worse kill them.
So fraudulent, so absurd, so sinister, so anti-humanity and anti life, reckless and a threat to this planet.
And they are about to unleash round 2 of Covid emergency, and probably throw in climate change emergency with it.
The housing market has gotten so unaffordable that Zillow is now offering prospective homebuyers a 1% down payment option
Housing Market Affordability Crisis Sparks Zillow to Offer 1% Down Payment
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-affordability-crisis-zillow-1-percent-down-payment-plan-2023-8
A nifty move for Zillow:
Zillow supplies the VALUES of houses to the housing market and then gets to supply to the buyer the funding to finance these “values”. If the house that is being offered for sale is part of Zillow’s inventory then so much the better.
Is zillow funding these mortgages, or will they be selling them off to Fannie and Freddie?
Two fun reads:
Fun Read Number One:
What is a Zestimate? Zillow’s Zestimate Accuracy | Zillow
https://www.zillow.com/z/zestimate/#:~:text=How%20accurate%20is%20the%20Zestimate,data%20in%20a%20home's%20area.
“How accurate is the Zestimate?”
“The nationwide median error rate for the Zestimate for on-market homes is 2.4%, while the Zestimate for off-market homes has a median error rate of 7.49%. The Zestimate’s accuracy depends on the availability of data in a home’s area.”
Fun Read Number Two:
How Accurate are Zillow’s Estimates? – Orchard
https://orchard.com/blog/posts/how-accurate-are-zillows-estimates
“Zillow boasts that for most major markets, Zestimates are within 10% of the final sale price of on-market homes 95% of the time. They also report that Zestimates have a nationwide median error rate of 2.4% for on-market homes and 7.49% for off-market homes —eaning that half of all homes are within the error rate, and the other half are not.”
“While a Zestimate may satisfy your curiosity, it won’t satisfy your lender when determining whether or not your home is adequate collateral for a loan. So if you need an accurate home value, like when applying for a home loan, you’ll need to hire a licensed appraiser.”
So if you really need to satisfy your lender make sure your lender is the same company that decides what the property is worth. The higher the value they can convince you as to what the property is worth the more money they can convince you to borrow from them.
Fun Read Number 3:
Dazzled by Wizardry, Federal Mortgage Regulators Ignore Zillow Debacle
https://appraisersblogs.com/dazzled-by-wizardry-federal-mortgage-regulators-ignore-zillow-debacle
This rulemaking is one more sign that federal bureaucrats are all in on a whacky plan to use technical wizardry to tease out the value of individual properties across the country…
Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara was a committed technocrat. Under his direction, a team of policy advisors descended into the Pentagon’s cavernous basement in 1967. They fed punch cards into the basement’s IBM mainframe computers with everything that could be quantified about the Vietnam War. Numbers of ships, tanks, transport helicopters, gunships, fixed-wing aircraft, artillery, troop strength, machine guns, ammo. They queried the computers, “What year will we win in Vietnam?” They went away on a Friday and let the computers work on the problem all weekend. When they returned the following Monday, there was one card in the output tray. It said, “You won in 1965.”
While computing power might have “solved” the Vietnam War on paper, the results clearly didn’t square with reality.
Fast-forward to 2023. Six federal agencies are seeking public comment on a newly-proposed rule designed to “ensure” the credibility and integrity of computer models used in automated real estate valuations. This rulemaking is one more sign that federal bureaucrats are all in on a whacky plan to use technical wizardry to tease out the value of individual properties across the country. The wager? The nation’s $12 trillion residential mortgage market, much of which is now backstopped by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Treasury.
These algorithmic valuations replace trained human appraisers with knowledge of local real estate markets. The so-called “black box appraisals” rely on mathematical formulas and Big Data to produce an opinion of value. The problem? The models aren’t able to think like buyers and sellers. They don’t pick up design flaws, emotion-based style preferences, ambient noise levels, smells, street parking issues, market tastes, perceived quality of school districts and responsiveness of local government. It’s too much to ask of a machine.
This rulemaking is one more sign that federal bureaucrats are all in on a whacky plan to use technical wizardry to tease out the value of individual properties across the country…
Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara was a committed technocrat. Under his direction, a team of policy advisors descended into the Pentagon’s cavernous basement in 1967. They fed punch cards into the basement’s IBM mainframe computers with everything that could be quantified about the Vietnam War. Numbers of ships, tanks, transport helicopters, gunships, fixed-wing aircraft, artillery, troop strength, machine guns, ammo. They queried the computers, “What year will we win in Vietnam?” They went away on a Friday and let the computers work on the problem all weekend. When they returned the following Monday, there was one card in the output tray. It said, “You won in 1965.”
While computing power might have “solved” the Vietnam War on paper, the results clearly didn’t square with reality.
Fast-forward to 2023. Six federal agencies are seeking public comment on a newly-proposed rule designed to “ensure” the credibility and integrity of computer models used in automated real estate valuations. This rulemaking is one more sign that federal bureaucrats are all in on a whacky plan to use technical wizardry to tease out the value of individual properties across the country. The wager? The nation’s $12 trillion residential mortgage market, much of which is now backstopped by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Treasury.
These algorithmic valuations replace trained human appraisers with knowledge of local real estate markets. The so-called “black box appraisals” rely on mathematical formulas and Big Data to produce an opinion of value. The problem? The models aren’t able to think like buyers and sellers. They don’t pick up design flaws, emotion-based style preferences, ambient noise levels, smells, street parking issues, market tastes, perceived quality of school districts and responsiveness of local government. It’s too much to ask of a machine.
Rohit Chopra, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, rightly sounded the alarm in a recent blog post – the models have the potential to do great harm.
The evidence is there for anyone wishing to look. In a disastrous bet made by Zillow – one in which the company staked its future on investing in residential real estate based on its own algorithms – the company lost $32 billion in market capitalization from February to November 2021. What did Zillow learn about its “Zestimates” when its own money was at stake?
Zillow, a company that gained popularity through its online listings, bet the farm on Zillow Offers, a home-flipping venture that relied on algorithms to identify homes the company would purchase. The plan was to make minor renovations and sell them off quickly for a profit. In a colossal about-face, after a write-down of half a billion dollars, the company announced the closure of the subsidiary, despite it being the primary source of revenue but not profitability. Zillow also reduced its workforce by approximately 2,000 employees, constituting a quarter of its staff.
The company disregarded internal concerns that its algorithms were causing it to overpay for homes, former and current employees told the Wall Street Journal in November 2021.
More than a decade earlier, in one of the first bombshells of the financial crisis, Standard and Poor’s Rating Services abruptly announced it was putting 612 mortgage-backed securities on “CreditWatch negative” and that it expected most to soon be downgraded because of high delinquency and foreclosure rates. Its algorithmic valuation model for the securities was known to spit out investment-grade ratings on junk-quality mortgage-backed securities, after which they could be purchased by pension funds.
Moody’s Investors Service, another purveyor of algorithmic valuations, quickly dropped a similar bombshell. It announced it would be downgrading 399 securities and placing an additional 32 securities on review for possible downgrade. Two days later, Fitch Ratings followed suit, signaling big problems with its own automated valuation models. Many of the once “investment grade” loans were in the portfolios of Wall Street players like Bear Stearns, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. Others were held by public employee pension funds as far away as Norway.
In 2009, Calpers, the largest public pension fund in the United States, sued Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch for assigning their highest ratings to securities that later suffered enormous losses. The suit would not be settled until 2015. This part of the crisis traces directly to the flawed automated valuations of homes whose mortgages were packaged up in the securities.
The rule now being proposed by six vast federal bureaucracies blithely assumes the holy grail is already in hand – the ability to quality-control imperfect algorithms that can never simulate the workings of a complex market involving millions of buyers and sellers. Until this holy grail is discovered, appraiser and podcaster Phil Crawford believes the automated models will introduce something he calls “data cancer” into the increasingly nationalized U.S. mortgage market. He defines “data cancer” as an echo-chamber effect arising from the proliferation, over time, of distorted values as they work their way into sales data, thereby buttressing ever-more distorted values.
“To paraphrase Hemingway’s quote on bankruptcy,” said Crawford, “the resulting crash will happen gradually, then suddenly.”
The agencies involved in the federal rulemaking include the Federal Housing Finance Agency; the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; the National Credit Union Administration; the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; the U.S. Department of the Treasury; and the Federal Reserve System.
Swedish economist Assar Lindbeck famously called rent control “the most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city—except for bombing,” Were professor Lindbeck still alive, he might now have included the automated valuation of a city’s real estate.
In most markets the seller decides the price of an item and leaves it up to the buyer to decide the item’s value. When the price and perceived value become equal to one another often a sale takes place.
In Zillow’s wonderful world of real estate transactions the buyer does not need to bother to exert any effort in determining a house’s value because Zillow (bless their hearts) will do all the work for them.
Plus, as a bonus, Zillow will willingly swallow some of the costs of the transaction!
Hundreds rally for judges to remove injunction blocking SF from clearing homeless encampments
ABC7 News Bay Area
Aug 23, 2023
The issue of homelessness in San Francisco went before three federal judges on Wednesday. “We have found dead bodies, we have found a dead baby in these tents. We have seen people in really awful conditions and we are not standing for it anymore!” Mayor London Breed exclaimed at the rally.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-_dCuIZ3mQ
4:36.
“We have found dead bodies, we have found a dead baby in these tents”
I’ve only visited San Francisco once, in 2019, and can’t see any reason to ever go back.
If Zillow is so bullish, I wonder why they folded their iBuyer program? Seems like they are passing up a great opportunity to PROFIT, with no downside risk.
Zillow is a full-blown housing market bull—predicting that U.S. home prices will jump 6.5% by July 2024
BY Lance Lambert
August 27, 2023 at 9:25 AM PDT
Back in February, Zillow’s housing economists made a bold call that U.S. home prices had bottomed and would proceed to climb 0.5% over the next 12 months.
…
https://fortune.com/2023/08/27/housing-market-bullish-2024-home-price-forecast-from-zillow/
Zillow San Diego: 5 Lies, Fraudulent and Deceitful Tactics Used in 2023 | 2024
https://www.sandiegorealestatehunter.com/blog/zillow-san-diego-5-lies-fraudulent-and-deceitful-tactics-used/
In this article, we will delve into the shadowy world of real estate fraud on Zillow, uncovering the sordid tales of dishonest agents who manipulate information, conceal costs, and exploit unsuspecting individuals. Through a careful examination of these practices, we aim to raise awareness among users and empower them with the knowledge to protect themselves from falling victim to these deceitful maneuvers.
Better’s shares plummet 93% in Nasdaq debut
After a two-year journey to go public, the company saw its share price decline to $1.15
August 24, 2023, 4:25 pm
By Flávia Furlan Nunes
Shares of Better Home & Finance Holding collapsed during its debut on Nasdaq Thursday. The digital lender went public after merging with the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Aurora Acquisition Corp the prior day.
Better’s class A common stock, listed under the ticker “BETR,” declined to $1.15 at the closing on Thursday. They were down 93.4% from the previous close of $17.45 when the SPAC was still trading on the stock exchange.
It took two years for Better to go public. According to Bloomberg News, the digital lender is among the 10 worst-performing companies that merged with SPACs this year.
…
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/betters-shares-plummet-93-in-nasdaq-debut/
Is a soft landing in the bag?
Forbes
Money
Markets
Data Not Conducive To Wall Street’s “Soft-Landing” Scenario
Robert Barone
Contributor
Great Speculations
Contributor Group
Aug 26, 2023, 4:34pm EDT
One of the two major economic/market events that occurred last week (week of August 20) was the stellar performance of Nvidia (NVDA) which, unlike the retailers, beat on both top and bottom lines and whose stock price has soared from a 112 low last October to a high print of nearly 503 early on Friday morning (August 25). That’s nearly a 450% rise in less than a year. As a result, on Friday, shareholders began taking profits as the stock closed within pennies of its low for the day at just over 460, down -8.5% from its early morning high.
Nvidia’s one day performance feels very much like a compact version of the S&P 500’s performance over the past month. After a monster rise of 28% from last October 12th’s low point (3577) to its July 24th high (4582), over the next month (to August 24) the S&P 500 fell -4.6%, closing at 4369 on Thursday before a small rally on Friday. We attribute this small rally to Fed Chair Powell’s recognition, in his keynote speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, that progress has been made on the inflation front and that there is uncertainty over the timing of policy lags on the economy. Hints, perhaps, that the tightening cycle may be nearing its end.
…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/08/26/data-not-conducive-to-wall-streets-soft-landing-scenario/?sh=77cef02a5b91
Fed’s Powell leaves investors with a cloud of uncertainty. Why the U.S. stock market faces a difficult week ahead.
Last Updated: Aug. 27, 2023 at 12:19 p.m. ET
First Published: Aug. 27, 2023 at 12:01 p.m. ET
By Isabel Wang
comments
What is the next crucial test for the U.S. stock market now that Jackson Hole is over
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-powells-ambivalent-stance-leaves-investors-with-a-cloud-of-uncertainty-why-the-u-s-stock-market-faces-a-difficult-week-ahead-e4cdf43e
Warren Buffett Says ‘Incredible Period’ for America’s Economy is Ending — Advice to Anxious Investors
4 min Read
August 27, 2023
By Sean Fisher, AI Editor
As economic indicators shift, even seasoned investors like Warren Buffett are adjusting their outlook. In a recent announcement, the famed investor known as the “Oracle of Omaha” voiced his concerns about the state of the U.S. economy.
During Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting, he noted that the “incredible period” of growth for the U.S. economy seems to be slowing down, and that most of the company’s businesses would likely report lower earnings this year compared to the previous year.
Buffett’s cautionary comments stand in stark contrast to his typically optimistic stance on the U.S. economy. So, what’s changed? A combination of persistently high inflation, rising interest rates, and an ongoing banking crisis have made Buffett and his longtime business partner, Charlie Munger, more cautious about the potential for investment gains in the coming year. “Get used to making less,” Munger remarked.
…
https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/economy/warren-buffett-says-incredible-period-americas-economy-ending-advice-anxious-investors/
“…an ongoing banking crisis…”
It’s pretty hard to find that in the news!
Business
Moody’s downgrades 10 regional banks as crisis pressures persist
The credit rating agency cited nervous depositors and investors, risks from higher interest rates, and a weakening commercial real estate market
By Tory Newmyer
Updated August 8, 2023 at 3:54 p.m. EDT|Published August 8, 2023 at 11:08 a.m. EDT
M&T Bank was the largest bank downgraded Tuesday by Moody’s Investor Service.
(Brendan McDermid/Reuters)
Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 10 regional banks and put six other lenders on notice that they are under review, the latest blow to an industry still reverberating from the March banking crisis that led three firms to collapse.
The targeted banks remain vulnerable to nervous depositors and investors, risks from higher interest rates, and a weakening commercial real estate market, Moody’s said. Some of those conditions helped spark the panic this spring that brought down Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, respectively the second- and third-largest bank failures in U.S. history.
The KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index closed the day down more than 1 percent, underperforming the broader market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both down less than 1 percent.
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/08/moodys-banks-downgrade/
Americans are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at an alarming rate
By Alicia Wallace, CNN
Updated 12:31 PM EDT, Tue August 8, 2023
Minneapolis CNN —
More Americans are tapping their 401(k) accounts because of financial distress, according to Bank of America data released Tuesday.
The number of people who made a hardship withdrawal during the second quarter surged from the first three months of the year to 15,950, an increase of 36% from the second quarter of 2022, according to Bank of America’s analysis of clients’ employee benefits programs, which are comprised of more than 4 million plan participants.
It’s a “pretty troubling” development if more people are resorting to making hardship withdrawals, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, told CNN.
“You understand why people do that in the heat of the moment, but the opportunity costs on that are really, really high over time,” he said.
Bank of America’s latest Participant Pulse report also found that a greater percentage of participants borrowed from their workplace plans from the first quarter, and average contributions trailed off as well.
…
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/401k-hardship-withdrawals/index.html
The HELOC is the only path to maintaining an Insta-Life Denver™ lifestyle.
And now that spigot has been shut off.
Fear & Greed Index
Homeowners are tapping into their home equity to get cash
By Anna Bahney, CNN
Published 6:58 AM EDT, Wed August 16, 2023
Washington, DC CNN —
With home values remaining strong across the country, Americans are tapping into their home equity to pay for renovations and debts.
Average mortgage rates are close to 7% and with low inventory in most housing markets across the country, home prices have held firm after surging during the pandemic.
That means homeowners are now collectively sitting on nearly $30 trillion in home equity, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
As a result, originations of Home Equity Lines of Credit (known as HELOCs) and home equity loans increased 50% in 2022 compared to two years earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
“Home renovations and remodeling drove demand for home equity products in 2022, with roughly two-thirds of borrowers citing it as a reason for applying for a home equity loan,” said Marina Walsh, MBA’s vice president of industry analysis.
…
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/16/homes/home-equity-loan-demand/index.html
Current mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been since 2001. Is there an end in sight?
Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy
USA TODAY
Homebuyers’ purchasing power diminished further in August as mortgage rates continued their upward march, averaging 7.2% over the week ending on Thursday, the highest level since 2001, according to newly released data by Freddie Mac.
Mortgage rates climbed to the highest levels in more than two decades the week prior averaging 7.09%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.5%.
…
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/08/24/mortgage-rates-highest-since-2001/70652472007/
Yahoo
Business Insider
The average homebuyer lost $71,000 in purchasing power over the last year as mortgage rates refuse to ease
Jennifer Sor
Fri, August 25, 2023 at 6:55 PM PDT·2 min read
US house prices
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate clocked in at 7.48% the last week, according to Mortgage News Daily.Saul Loeb/Getty Images
– The average homebuyer lost $71,000 in purchasing power over the last year, a Redfin analysis shows.
– That’s due to high mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed rate nearing 7.5% over the last week.
– That mortgage rate was just 5.5% in August of last year, but home prices haven’t budged as rates keep climbing.
The average homebuyer lost around $71,000 in purchasing power over the last year, according to a new Redfin analysis.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/average-homebuyer-lost-71-000-015545531.html
“The average homebuyer lost $71,000 in purchasing power over the last year as mortgage rates refuse to ease”
A better analysis would be to look at how much home equity homemoaners lost. It’s alot.
More Americans are tapping their 401(k) accounts
And pre 59 1/2 withdrawals have a 10% penalty, on top of any taxes owed.
Money
Macy’s reports uptick in credit card delinquencies – as America’s household debts swell to $1 TRILLION thanks to rampant inflation and higher interest rates
By Helena Kelly Consumer Reporter For Dailymail.Com Updated 12:06 EDT 24 Aug 2023
– Macy’s credit card revenue has plunged by 36% thanks to rise in delinquencies
– Bosses said they had anticipated the trend but it had been ‘faster than planned’
– Recent Fed data shows America’s credit card debt had swelled to $1 trillion
Macy’s executives have warned of a spike in customers failing to make credit card payments thanks to unprecedented pressures on household finances.
The department store has seen its credit card revenue plunge by 36 percent this year due to the rise in delinquencies.
Bosses said they had expected to see a rise in delinquencies post-pandemic but that the trend had emerged ‘faster than planned.’
It comes after figures from the Fed showed America’s credit card debt had swelled to $1 trillion for the first time in history.
In an earnings call, Macy’s chief operating officer and chief finance officer Adrian Mitchell said: ‘The speed at which the increase occurred for us and the broader credit card industry was faster planned.’
…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/consumer/article-12441767/Macys-reports-uptick-credit-card-delinquencies-figures-showed-Americas-household-debts-swelled-1-TRILLION-thanks-rampant-inflation-higher-rates.html
Can’t afford to shop at Macy’s? Go loot Macy’s* instead.
* all lootings in the State of California value $950 or less, per youth, student, spring breaker, et cetera
How long until big box retailers start closing stores across the state?
Is deflation that makes everything more affordable somehow a bad thing?
Why?
Yahoo
Bloomberg
China’s Worsening Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Across the Globe
Bloomberg News
Sun, August 27, 2023 at 2:00 PM PDT·6 min read
(Bloomberg) — China’s economy was meant to drive a third of global economic growth this year, so its dramatic slowdown in recent months is sounding alarm bells across the world.
Policymakers are bracing for a hit to their economies as China’s imports of everything from construction materials to electronics slide. Caterpillar Inc. says Chinese demand for machines used on building sites is worse than previously thought. U.S. President Joe Biden called the economic problems a “ticking time bomb.”
Global investors have already pulled more than $10 billion from China’s stock markets, with most of the selling in blue chips. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have cut their targets for Chinese equities, with the former also warning of spillover risks to the rest of the region.
Asian economies are taking the biggest hit to their trade so far, along with countries in Africa. Japan reported its first drop in exports in more than two years in July after China cut back on purchases of cars and chips. Central bankers from South Korea and Thailand last week cited China’s weak recovery for downgrades to their growth forecasts.
It’s not all doom-and-gloom, though. China’s slowdown will drag down global oil prices, and deflation in the country means the prices of goods being shipped around the world are falling. That’s a benefit to countries like the US and UK still battling high inflation.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-worsening-economic-slowdown-rippling-210000323.html
‘Dallas-Fort Worth’s 72,900 apartments under construction — the most anywhere in the U.S. — will grow the North Texas market’s inventory by 8%,’ according to the researchers. ‘Before we get to 2025′s slowdown in apartment deliveries, the key metros in Texas will add further big blocks of rental housing during the remainder of this year and during 2024’
The peak for DFW permits was Q1 2023. Just a few months ago they were pedal to the metal.
‘All we hear is the shortage of housing, the shortage of affordable housing, and people are desperate for housing…And yet, it’s like, when you offer it, it’s hard to find anyone to take you up on it. There’s obviously some kind of disconnect here’
I know Dave, it’s the craziest thing. A real mystery.
‘By repeating such steps and developing more and more projects, the amount of their capital keeps growing. However, the bosses don’t consider the fact that this high debt and high turnover approach also leads to higher risks. Large companies like Evergrande and Country Garden simply pursue scale and speed in third- and fourth-tier cities without pursuing profits. They develop land in large quantities, sacrificing profits to build up their capital pool. Then, they go to first- and second-tier cities to make profits’
And the later is sinking like a turd in a well. That’s a salty pickle you got there pooh bear.
‘What they could not see was that the real estate boom, created and fueled by the combined forces of China’s economic growth, urbanization process, supply-side reform, and a deluge of strong stimulus, was coming to an end’
Krugman, we gotta clean up on aisle YOU.
Brand-New San Francisco Condo Complex Handed Back to Lender by Developer
News For Reasonable People
6 hours ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qb6sm4fWZcQ
21 minutes.
Is 80 per cent alot?
Financial Times
Markets Briefing
Chinese stocks jump after Beijing cuts levy for first time since 2008
Optimism tempered by 80% drop in property group Evergrande’s shares
A montage of the Shanghai skyline and a chart going up
Chinese stocks gained after the Ministry of Finance said it would halve the stamp duty levied on all stock trades to 0.05%
Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong
45 minutes ago
Chinese stocks rose on Monday after regulators cut a levy on stock trades for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis and pledged to slow the pace of initial public offerings in an effort to boost investor confidence.
The benchmark CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks led Asian markets higher on Monday, climbing as much as 5.5 per cent before pulling back to be up about 2 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.8 per cent.
Elsewhere in the region, Japan’s Topix index rose 1.4 per cent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.6 per cent.
The sharp gains for Chinese stocks came after the Ministry of Finance announced on Sunday that it would halve the stamp duty levied on all stock trades to 0.05 per cent in order to “invigorate capital markets and boost investor confidence”, the first such cut since 2008.
Separately, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it would slow the pace of initial public offerings in light of “recent market conditions”. New listings in China often sap liquidity from broader markets and can depress valuations, as retail investors cash out of their holdings to put money towards new share offerings.
“The good news is that we are seeing more easing measures,” Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note following the moves. “But the bad news is that these measures are still piecemeal, especially in the context of the severe property downturn.”
The intensity of the liquidity crisis in China’s real estate sector was underscored by a fall of more than 80 per cent for Hong Kong-listed shares in struggling developer China Evergrande, which resumed trading on Monday for the first time in 17 months.
…
Why is evergrande not at zero yet?