Folks Are Selling Out, And They Have No Choice

1. ‘I think about whoever might have the misfortune of buying these houses,’ says Manookian. ‘They’re polished turds’

   But Brian, can I rent them out on airbnb? I could make it a theme: spend yer holiday in a Polish turd! Wait, you said polished, never mind.

2. 65 degrees here at 8 AM.

   1. Finally cooling down, huh?

      We’ve had thunder, lightening and rain since early this morning. Sure hope it washes away the past three weeks of smoke from both the Okanogan and Spokane fires that has kept our air quality unhealthy and me from my bicycle.

   2. 96 degrees now. Supposed to hit 99 degrees then cool down. Surprisingly haven’t seen triple digits.

3. ‘This is the worst purchase I ever made ― it was supposed to be my forever home but it is not going to be my forever home’

   That’s OK Leticia, you can always sell.

   1. It was still cheaper than renting!!!

4. ‘Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s leading lender, revealed that as of July this year, 43% of its residential mortgages in Canada had an amortization period exceeding 25 years. This is a significant increase from just 40% last year and only 26% back in January. Mortgages with an amortization span exceeding 35 years have also increased. As recently as early last year, RBC did not offer such loans within their Canadian portfolio; today they account for nearly a quarter of their mortgage portfolio. Similarly, Toronto-Dominion Bank reported that almost half its Canadian mortgages now have an amortization period over 25 years’

   Sound lending K-da style!

5. This 19 minute video is well worth a watch:

   Watch “4 Signs ECONOMIC COLLAPSE is Right Around The Corner…” on YouTube
   https://youtu.be/rQKJXnZABI8?si=XRAE9LnuHgAc5Q9X

6. ‘Borrowers are experiencing a huge financial shock after a relentless climb in interest rates over the past year and homeowners weren’t coping…Many borrowers have already pulled back on all non-essential spending — they have no money left to contribute to their mortgage. They feel like they’ve got little choice but to sell up or lose their home’

   Dick, I bet every one of these whiners is eating, probably more than once a day.

   1. Food is the largest item in my budget. Actually that’s not true. The interest I’m earning is much larger.

      Why would anyone choose a life of debt service?

7. ‘an overwhelming 90.8% of San Jose metro residents have been browsing homes beyond their current location in the first quarter of 2023’

   Nobody wants to live there!

   ‘In 2019, the city had ‘more drug addicts than it [had] students enrolled in its public high schools,’ the San Francisco Chronicle reported, by a margin of more than 8,000 people’

   It got better since 2019, right?

8. ‘The rent is no longer covering the costs to hold this property, so if rent does not go up, we will sell up’

   You say that like it’s a threat.

9. ‘Local government debt didn’t exist in 2008, when it pushed through a 4 trillion renminbi stimulus. The real stimulus was that local governments could borrow for the first time; their debt went from zero to 90 to 100 trillion renminbi in 15 years’

   Is that a lot Charlene? I remember when this part of the China-ron ponzi was hailed by the globalist scum media as an endless river of cash miracle!

   ‘People keep looking at this as a cyclical short-term problem and [think] China will get back to the growth path it was on, and everything will be fine. Those days are over. China is never going back to prepandemic growth levels. There are just too many structural issues. Then, layer on the demographics and it’s going to be impossible to get close to the growth rates of the past. People don’t understand that. It’s not clear China’s authorities fully understand that either’

   Pooh bear is dumber than a pile of moldy firewood Charlene. And he’s a commie.

10. Over one-third of hiring managers admit to lying to candidates. It’s creating a trust issue with HR and damaging company reputations

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-one-third-hiring-managers-122634673.html

    Employers and their HR teams know all too well the consequences of a candidate lying about their qualifications during the hiring process—hiring teams waste time and money recruiting and onboarding a candidate only to rescind the job offer or fire them after finding out about the deception. But how often is it the employers that do the lying?

    Around 36% of hiring managers admit they’ve lied to candidates about the role or the company, according to 1,060 hiring managers recently polled by Resume Builder. Of hiring managers who admit to lying, around 75% say they lie during the interview, 52% in the job description, and 24% in the offer letter.

    The result of these falsehoods creates distrust between job seekers and the organization. It also often leaves HR teams scrambling to refill the role yet again as candidates quickly leave after discovering the truth about their new job.

11. ‘it’s already begun to happen in the tri-county area — is that folks are selling out, and they have no choice…Our senior citizens are essentially being pushed out of their homes because of decades of deferred maintenance and failure to adequately fund the reserves’

    So what yer saying John is they fooked themselves.

    ‘‘We’re looking for some kind of relief because, otherwise, we’re going to have a senior exodus out of our condos…They plan to retire here, they’re paying their assessments, they’re paying their quarterly maintenance and things like that, but now they’re suddenly facing $40K, $50K or $60K assessments’

    No problem Fred, just take that money they didn’t spend for all those years and apply it to the whopping assessments. They did save it, right Fred?

    1. I was reading an article this morning on one of these coastal sh$tholes where people haven’t even fixed their shacks from the last hurricane and they are covering the holes in the roofs for the new one. And you wonder why yer insurance is high.

       1. Not sure why they didn’t build the houses with steel roofs. It pays for itself in the long run and insurance would be much cheaper in hurricane zones. Unless the house is wiped out or flooded, the roof is the only part of the house that suffers damage.

    2. Our senior citizens are essentially being pushed out of their homes because of decades of deferred maintenance and failure to adequately fund the reserves.

       Wouldn’t senior citizens be the ones who have had the most time and opportunities during their lives to maintain their buildings and fund their reserves?

       1. The elderly have had the most time to save, but they also have had the most time without a real income and so they’ve spent whatever they’ve saved. Or more accurately, they’re old women who are outliving the money their husbands saved. That’s probably why they’re in those condos in the first place: the years of deferred maintenance is why the condo was cheap enough for a poor widow to afford.

    3. In the words of Jiminy Cricket:

       “You buttered your bread, now sleep in it!”

12. Jerry’s recent Jackson Hole speech: “As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.” Translation: We are overpaid rich bankers and academics masquerading as public servants. Our sail ripped, our rudder fell off, and we hit a rock, but we’re doing our best.

    The thing about the free market is that it navigates itself, despite the cloudy skies, through the magic of price discovery.

13. ‘All across the country, downtowns, office spaces and shopping centers are at risk of becoming ground zero for a new economic hazard: the urban doom loop. The fear is that a commercial real estate apocalypse could spiral out and slow commerce, wrecking local tax revenue in the process. Ever since the pandemic drove a boom in remote work, hubs such as New York and San Francisco have drawn attention for their empty offices in previously bustling skyscrapers. But many economists are even more worried about midsize cities that have fewer ways to offset the blow when a major company slashes office space, the sale price of a building craters, or a downtown turns into a ghost town’

    ‘Once those offices are empty, there are few alternatives and not a lot of life after hours’

    And they did it on purpose Stijn.

    via GIPHY

    1. Some wishful thinking in the Dumver POst:

       A new lease on life: Denver unveils 16 office towers best suited for conversion to residential
       High vacancy rates and lower building values are making alterations more likely

       1. You can work from home, but now the only home you can afford is an office building!

14. How Overemployment Is Making People Rich – 35% Of Remote Workers Work At Least 2 Full-Time Jobs At The Same Time

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/overemployment-making-people-rich-35-021500453.html

    Remote work has entirely changed the landscape between employers and employees. The newfound autonomy of workers makes it necessary for them to establish some semblance of trust between them and the company they work for.

    But more and more employees who work from home are double-dipping and working multiple full-time jobs at the same time.
    In a video uploaded by a woman named “Kayy,” and captioned, “Your job doesn’t want to give you a raise, so you go get 2-3 WFH jobs and make 10k+ a month. I gave myself a raise,” a mother is shown multitasking between two laptops while her toddler played nearby.

    A TikToker named Jerry Lee added his own commentary on Kayy’s situation. He said that his friend had doubled his own income by working two jobs at once. Lee had known the man since kindergarten and hadn’t seen him in about a year and a half. The two met up for lunch, and according to him, the first thing his friend said was, “Hey, Jerry. I got a Tesla.” Apparently, with the income from two full-time remote engineering jobs at once, he was able to purchase the vehicle.

    But he is not alone. Lee said that 35-79% of remote workers have two full-time jobs that they work simultaneously.

    1. ‘Lee said that 35-79% of remote workers have two full-time jobs that they work simultaneously’

       Productivity baby!

    2. Lee said that 35-79% of remote workers have two full-time jobs that they work simultaneously.

       Wow that’s a really precise estimate. Did Lee travel to an office building to conduct that survey or did he do it remotely?

       1. You scared, bro?

          1. If I were an office landlord I sure would be. I wonder if some of them are paying people to spread wild rumors on TikTok.

       2. “Wow that’s a really precise estimate.”

          It’s a wide brush. 🙂

       3. My estimate is between 0% and 100%

    3. 35% Of Remote Workers Work At Least 2 Full-Time Jobs At The Same Time

       That’s called fraud. WFH is a giant scam.

       1. Well I hope you wrote that post from the confines of a corporate-approved glass and steel office building, after enduring an appropriately grueling, energy-wasting, dangerous commute, inducing the proper amount of wear and tear on your vehicle and the roadways. Otherwise you’re calling yourself a scammer.

          1. ——————–
             Amazon CEO tells employees to return to the office or their days may be numbered
             Brian Fung, CNN
             Published 2:17 PM EDT, Tue August 29, 2023

             As part of his remarks, which Amazon shared with CNN, Jassy said during the event this month that while employees are entitled to disagree with the company’s decision bringing workers back into the office and to criticize it, they are not entitled to disregard the policy.

             He also predicted that for those who could not accept the policy, their prospects for remaining at Amazon appeared grim.

             https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/29/business/amazon-jobs-return-to-office/index.html
             —————–

          2. WFH has been going on at various degrees for at least 30 years. We had sales people being sent leads via phone and fax. in the mid-1990s. Productivity was much higher in the office for most of the people. It was tough to monitor people WFH and In fact, we caught one person taking our mortgage leads and brokering them to different companies.
             But with that all said. People working from home enabled us to better cover the time zones as we had people WFH in Phoenix when all the offices were in the east/midwest. It also enabled us to hire people not in the office area who were proven producers. So a mixed bag, but the newer MLOs definitely benefited from being the the office where they received more coaching and help with structuring deals

             1. WFH for sales folks should not be a problem. I did it from the 90’s on.

                Then again, I only got paid when I sold.😁

       2. That’s called fraud. WFH is a giant scam.

          Why is it fraud? I have a set of responsibilities and goals to reach at work. If I meet or exceed expectations what is the problem?

          Unless, of course, there is a conflict of interest such has working for a competitor.

          1. “I have a set of responsibilities and goals to reach at work. If I meet or exceed expectations what is the problem?”

             Companies are finding out that some of those responsibilities and goals involve impromptu conversations, spontaneous brainstorming, and building relationships for future ideas and innovation, in hallways or at the microwave. You cannot meet those expectations at home.

             Yes, I’m sure that YOU are a superworker who is just as effective at home. But from the sound of it, that’s only 5-10% of the cubicle workforce. The rest need in-office motivation.

             1. The problem is none of this can be quantified — you cannot say this Q1 initiative ideation, planning, execution, and results came from the water cooler chat. And there are virtual ways to bump into each other, chat, etc. Teams can choose to prioritize time for relationship development — in the past few years, I’ve seen some managers/teams excel and others flounder at this.

                Of course there are some people and roles that cannot thrive WFH.

             2. I agree that the soft-skill aspect isn’t quantifiable, but it’s become apparent that workplaces don’t function well without it. It’s nebulous, which is why it took so long figure out.

                I also believe that planned team-building doesn’t work, especially outside a defined small group. Managers are trying that now with junk like trust falls or ice cream socials, only to find that the work@homers won’t even come to the office for that. For some reason, it’s the impromptu meetings and hallway mentoring that spurs the most innovation and collaboration.

    4. This is another Smart Boy move that I suspect will end poorly. If you’re in tech, your contract likely contains noncompete clauses, claims that any tech work you do while employed there belongs to the company, etc. If your employer happens to find out you’re doing it – and how hard is it, once they decide to look? – you’ll also discover they have a lot more lawyers than you do, plus your contract also contains everything they could think of to hobble your legal standing from the outset in case of any dispute. Take it from someone who’s had occasion to see the slimy underbelly of these people.

       Sorry if double post – network acting up again.

       1. If you’re in tech, your contract likely contains noncompete clauses, claims that any tech work you do while employed there belongs to the company, etc.

          My contracts have always stated if I do any work on the company’s machine it belongs to them. If you use a company’s machine to do personal projects you are an idiot.

       2. I’m positive that these double dippers are working on two different company laptops. Put them next to each other and you can be logged into both, answering both bosses all day, no one the wiser.

       3. noncompete clauses

          Noncompete clauses are not enforceable under California law.

          claims that any tech work you do while employed there belongs to the company

          Typically tied to use of company resources not duration of employment.

    5. Scott Adams of Dilbert fame told a similar story of someone who, pre w@h, held two separate jobs on separate floors in an office building. He bounced between his two desks all day. Nobody knew that when he had “stepped away” from his desk, he was really working the other job.

       The only new innovation is adding the toddler to the mix.

       1. “The only new innovation is adding the toddler to the mix.”

          That’ll monkey things up!

    6. These threads are rather amusing.

       Work van, company credit card for gas, still waiting on that remote controlled robot that can do electrical construction and renovation work remotely from the comfort of home.

       When I was a government contractor in a previous lifetime, if somebody “working from home” couldn’t answer the phone on the second ring it made me wonder what they were really doing at home.

       1. Once again, DIS, no one has ever said that all jobs can be done remotely. But for the ones that can be, there is usually a tremendous gain in efficiency from not having to travel.

          Whenever I hire someone, I always try to make their jobs as easy for them as possible. If I hire a house painter, I have a sturdy scaffold set up for them so they can concentrate on painting instead of shuffling around ladders. If I hire someone to write software, I want them to be focused on software and not be frazzled and stressed by having to sit in traffic for several hours a day. And I appreciate it when people show me the same consideration when I’m working.

       2. We don’t use the phone anymore. We use Slack for text messaging, and when we need to actually speak, we use Zoom. My team is rather extended: Czechia, UK, Ireland, US East and West Coasts. Curiously, none at the local Broomfield office. The only time I go there is for the VP’s quarterly all hands, which includes teams besides mine. Anyway, been WFH since 2017. And if I tried to do two WFH gigs, I know I couldn’t pull it off. Plus it would be pretty stressful.

          1. And if I tried to do two WFH gigs, I know I couldn’t pull it off. Plus it would be pretty stressful.

             I don’t image it is possible to be successful with two full-time WFH gigs. Much like it is not possible to provide childcare and WFH… something that irks me when I see it.

             1. A minor point perhaps, it’s dishonest.

       3. Laundry. 😁

    7. The remote worker in Brazil or India has 8-10 jobs at the same time. And American companies are too scared to fire the foreign ‘diversity hire’ for fear of looking racist. It’s the biggest scam ever.

15. Two weeks before the 2020 election, a woman dropped off more than 10,000 voter registration forms with a city clerk in Muskegon, Michigan.

    The number of forms was a red flag for the city clerk, Ann Meisch. Less than 4,000 of the city’s voting-age residents weren’t registered to vote.

    Ms. Meisch called the police, triggering an investigation by the Michigan State Police. An Oct. 26, 2020, police report from that probe recently surfaced after Michigan state lawmakers obtained it through a Freedom of Information request.

    At the time, Brianna Hawkins, the woman who delivered the forms, was employed by GBI Strategies, an out-of-state firm working to boost Democrat voter turnout in urban centers in key swing states to help then-candidate Joe Biden defeat President Donald Trump. According to the police report, when questioned by Muskegon Police Department investigators, Ms. Hawkins said her job was to register voters and help them obtain absentee ballots.

    State Republican Party officials Phil O’Halloran and Lori Skibo obtained the police report. Mr. O’Halloran provided it to The Epoch Times.

    An article by a nationally known fact-checking service disputed recent conservative media accounts of the Muskegon episode.

    “While the total number of voter registration forms submitted by that person may add up to as much as 12,500, very few of them were deemed to be fraudulent,” the fact checker said.

    “Page 3 of the MSP [Michigan State Police] report says Meisch ‘turned over 42 suspected fraudulent applications to Officer Foster [of the Muskegon Police Deptartment] for examination.’”

    The fact checker didn’t state that the 42 applications were a sampling.

    However, the numbers tell a different story and raise a question: If there were only 42 suspected fraudulent voter registration applications submitted to the city clerk, why didn’t she register the rest of the batch?

    In 2020, the population of the City of Muskegon was 38,309, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    Of these, 29,800 people were of voting age.

    Ms. Meisch told The Epoch Times in an August 10 email that in 2019, there were 25,957 registered voters in the city. In 2020, the number of people registered to vote increased by 2,077 to 28,034.

    That means the pool of voting-age people not registered to vote that Ms. Hawkins had to work with was only 3,843.

    Ms. Hawkins dropped off more than 10,000 voter registration forms in incremental batches, suggesting that thousands of the forms never made it onto the city’s registered voter roll.

    “Even a casual observer can readily see that something is wrong. The numbers do not add up. The number of registration forms turned in by one person represents a third of the population of the city,” Mr. O’Halloran told The Epoch Times.

    The Epoch Times later contacted the city clerk with two more questions: Where did the completed voter registration forms filed by Ms. Hawkins come from, and are those extra voter registration forms that were rejected by her office in her custody?

    In other words, what happened to the 10,423 voter registration forms that didn’t result in a person being added to the city’s voter roll?

    Ms. Meisch replied in an Aug. 13 email: “I cannot speak to the facts of the case at this time. I am sorry that I cannot be of more help.”

    According to the 2020 police report, Ms. Meisch told authorities that some of the irregularities found on the voter registration forms submitted by Ms. Hawkins included invalid and nonexistent addresses, erroneous phone numbers, signatures that didn’t match those on existing records, and numerous forms that appeared to be filled out and signed by the same hand.

    Sixteen GOP 2020 electors lawfully nominated by the Michigan Republican Party to cast electoral college votes for President Trump if he carried the state were indicted in July by Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, a Democrat, on fraud charges for allegedly knowingly and willfully advancing the “false claim” that there was large-scale voter fraud in the state during the 2020 presidential election.

    Mr. O’Halloran told The Epoch Times that he hopes the exposure of the Muskegon case will help exonerate the Republican electors. He called it a “cruel irony” that Ms. Nessel, who he says appears to have helped bury “a state investigation into what appears to be actual forgery of election documents,” is prosecuting “the innocent Michigan 16 for a contrived ‘forgery’ in a case that hinges on the AG’s contention that there was ‘no evidence of fraud.'”

    Attorneys for some of the 16 Trump electors argue that their clients merely positioned themselves as place-holders ready to legally step in if ongoing investigations into voter fraud determined that President Trump won the state of Michigan in 2020.

    Mr. O’Halloran, chairman of the state party’s election integrity committee, told The Epoch Times in an Aug. 21 interview that he and Ms. Skibo were motivated in their efforts by state GOP Chair Kristina Karamo, who encouraged them to “research the facts, make sure they are legit.”

    Ms. Skibo told The Epoch Times that it was a Republican precinct delegate from Muskegon who brought the 2020 incident into the spotlight. “The person saw something wrong and did something about it,” she said.

    Now head of the poll challenger operation for the state party, Ms. Skibo remembered her own days as a precinct delegate and volunteer challenger at Detroit’s central vote-counting center in 2020.

    “After seeing all the irregularities that night, I really believed that a team of Republican Party attorneys were going to show up the next morning demanding answers. I remember how angry I was when the state party did absolutely nothing,” she said. “Things are very different now that we have a truly grassroots-led party.”

    The actions of the two high-ranking Michigan Republican Party officials are a sea change compared with the position previously taken by a GOP-led state Senate panel. The panel released a report in June 2021 stating that its investigation could find “no systematic fraud” in the 2020 election.

    Participants in the Muskegon investigation in 2020 were the Muskegon City Police, the Michigan State Police, the Michigan Attorney General’s Office, representatives of the Michigan Secretary of State’s Office, and, according to Michigan State Police records, the FBI.

    On Aug. 14, The Epoch Times asked the FBI’s national press office whether the bureau is currently investigating or has ever investigated the Muskegon case, and if so, what’s the status or outcome of their probe. The FBI didn’t respond by press time.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/mystery-swirls-over-batch-of-thousands-of-2020-voter-registration-forms-in-michigan-5465266

    1. The 2020 election was stolen.

    2. At the time, Brianna Hawkins, the woman who delivered the forms, was employed by GBI Strategies, an out-of-state firm working to boost Democrat voter turnout in urban centers in key swing states to help then-candidate Joe Biden defeat President Donald Trump.

       Follow the money. Except none of the captured, compromised institutions of governance charged with safeguarding the system against electoral fraud ever will. Nor will the sham Establishment GOP “investigations” lead anywhere.

16. Senator Joe Biden was the architect of the 1994 Crime Bill

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/l4aENqv4ZIxy/

    1:19.

17. Never mind those sub-3% mortgage rates that sent US housing prices up by 40% during the pandemic. It’s rate normalization that is destroying the market, at least according to one expert.

    1. Yahoo
       Business Insider
       The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
       Jennifer Sor
       Mon, August 28, 2023 at 8:03 PM PDT·2 min read
       housing
       Robert Galbraith/ Reuters

       – The Fed may have broken the US housing market, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian.

       – That’s because interest rate hikes have helped drive up mortgage rates, weighing on both supply and demand.

       The US housing market may be broken, and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hiking cycle over the past year could be to blame, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian.

       “There’s a real issue as to whether we’ve broken the housing market,” the Allianz chief economic advisor said in an interview with CNBC on Monday, pointing to high mortgage rates weighing on the market. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage notched a fresh 23-year-high last week, clocking in at 7.48%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-may-destroyed-housing-market-030332638.html

       1. Only the wealthy and equity rich are trading houses right now. Not a recipe for sustainability.

          1. Same with new and gently used vehicles. People are getting a new one every single year because their used one is almost the same price.

       2. – PB:

          “Yahoo
          Business Insider
          The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says“

          \\

          – This is the elephant / 600 lb. gorilla in the room that nobody’s talking about…. See X tweet link, below.

          \\

          “Many are saying the Fed is making a “policy mistake” in hiking rates “too high and too fast.” But the real policy mistake was increasing the money supply by 50% in 3 years and buying mortgage bonds in the midst of a housing bubble.”

          \\

          – The Fed intentionally blew Housing (and Stonk) Bubble 2.0. That’s the real crime.

          1. – For posterity.

             – Truth.

             – “The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by unleashing 15 years of ZIRP & QE” – There. Fixed it for ya.

             The Fed’s mission statement in a nutshell:

             “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.” – Bhagavad Gita

             https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1697030449850089723

             Amy Nixon
             @texasrunnerDFW
             No.

             The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by unleashing 15 years of ZIRP & QE

             Anything happening now with rate hikes is like when you give Chemo to a cancer patient—things get a lot worse before they get better

             https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/housing-market-broken-mortgage-rates-supply-demand-mohamed-el-erian-2023-8

             The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist…

             “When you go from record-low mortgage rates to levels that we haven’t seen for almost 20 years, you’ve destroyed both demand and supply,” El-Erian said.

             5:36 PM · Aug 30, 2023 · 3,287 Views

18. I want to live in a castle……

    The castle has been on and off the market; it was previously listed for $60 million in February 2022. The previously higher price included 400 acres, while the new lower price only includes 75,

    https://www.newstimes.com/realestate/article/chris-mark-castle-580-brickyard-road-ct-18329393.php

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/580-Brickyard-Rd-Woodstock-CT-06281/240622710_zpid/

19. The Week on California. “San Francisco is a city of two realities. Heading into downtown displays a much less glamorous version of the city. San Francisco has been grappling with several societal ills for years, including a widespread drug addiction crisis. In 2019, the city had ‘more drug addicts than it [had] students enrolled in its public high schools,’ the San Francisco Chronicle reported, by a margin of more than 8,000 people.”

    \\

    – So, what’s the other reality, other than SF, CA devolving into a 3rd world Leftist / Progressive / Socialist / Communist sh*thole, as per the plan, and by the legions of useful idiots residing there voting for, or otherwise supporting their own destruction?

    – I missed the flip side. Bums, feces, drugs, rampant crime, businesses closing and residents fleeing for their very lives. Where’s the silver lining?

    – “A Tale of Two Cities” was all about the French Revolution. Coming soon to a country near you…

    \\

    “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” – Charles Dickens, “A Tale of Two Cities”

20. A reader sent these in:

    CHINA REDUCES TAX ON STOCK TRADING BY 50% TO BOOST MARKET

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1695849613897371954

    Owning a home has become so expensive, that many people are cancelling their insurance: The national average home insurance for $250,000 in coverage is up another 20% this year, to a record $1,428/year. This is on top of an average monthly mortgage payment that just crossed $2,500/month. Record levels of debt, the most unaffordable housing market in history, and now uninsured homeowners. What could possibly go wrong?

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1696201787575878117

    The median home value to income ratio in the US now stands at a record ~4.5x. This is 45% above the historical average of ~3.1x with the median home payment now at a record $2,800/mo. Meanwhile, the median rent price in the US just hit a record $2,050/mo. Renting a house in the US requires ~35% of the median PRE-TAX household income. Buying requires ~46% of the median PRE-TAX household income. Simply having a place to live has never been more expensive.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1695883280095072435

    This is footage of “Blade Runners” taking down the cameras in London the government put up to tax cars and limit freedom of movement. 🔊….🔥🔥🔥 90% of cameras in south east London have been removed or disabled as the Low Emission Zone is due to come into force on August 29. Residents whose vehicle does not comply (diesel from before 2015 and petrol from before 2006) will no longer be able to drive unless they are taxed 15 € per day.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1696253705715073324

    45% of student loan borrowers expect to go delinquent when payments resume on October 1st.

    https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1696264165524902396

    JUST IN: 🇺🇲 US mortgage demand has fallen to a 28-year low

    https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1696291383554838903

    For years, jumbo mortgages (>$726k) had lower rates than conforming mortgages but that trend has reversed with jumbo rates now at 7.44% vs. 7.20% for conforming loans. Banks have been pulling back from offering jumbo loans at discounted rates as a way to attract wealthy clients.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1696354979013968282

    The 2,850% gain in $AMC shares during the 2021 meme stock mania has been completely erased after a 98% decline. The weighing machine always wins out in the end.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1696276681311326689

    The 10-Year Treasury bond is down 1% this year, on pace for its 3rd consecutive annual decline. With data going back to 1928, that’s never happened before.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1695993352741646777

    Many are saying the Fed is making a “policy mistake” in hiking rates “too high and too fast.” But the real policy mistake was increasing the money supply by 50% in 3 years and buying mortgage bonds in the midst of a housing bubble.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1695828639139365334

    When Hillary had to enter a working class home 🤣

    https://twitter.com/SallyMayweather/status/1696221929982623845

    We are now below 60% of homes owned by the primary residents. We have been declining since 2007, but he have taken a huge hit in 2023 with interest rates so much higher.

    https://twitter.com/InsAgencyOwner/status/1695908944202416375

    Small Banks CRE holdings YoY compared to Big Banks

    https://twitter.com/multi_finance/status/1696183789544985011

    NYC IS BACK!

    https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1696188953857241453

    I love California!

    https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1695755023412826508

    *Fed’s Rogers: The decision has been made to unwind the Fed’s holdings in several key asset classes. As a result, we have decided to liquidate our entire portfolio of MBS and Treasury securities…tonight.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1696260778301534332

    La gas today. Who can drive to beach?

    https://twitter.com/AndreasSchilli/status/1696249217927241835

    Why is it is “sky-high mortgage rates,” and not “sky-high housing prices”?

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1696252337730310627

    OMG, I can’t believe my question got on the air.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1349778756802469890

    In San Francisco, “Brookfield is requesting that tax assessment valuations be taken down 50%-70%.”

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1695846160433590646

    1. Wonder what sparked that. His t-shirt?

       1. NYC IS BACK!

          oops

21. “JUST IN: 🇺🇲 US mortgage demand has fallen to a 28-year low”

    I suspect that much of the purchase activity in ‘23 has been cash. I know that has been the case in my area. This is not sustainable.

22. Commerce says US firms complain China is ‘uninvestible’

    https://news.yahoo.com/us-commerce-chief-set-meet-063353143.html

    BEIJING (Reuters) – U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said U.S. companies have complained to her that China has become “uninvestible,” pointing to fines, raids and other actions that have made it too risky to do business in the world’s second-largest economy.

    The comments, made to reporters aboard a high-speed train as her delegation of U.S. officials headed from Beijing to Shanghai, provided a bleak picture of how American firms view China and was the bluntest Raimondo has made on her trip.

    “Increasingly I hear from American business that China is uninvestible because it’s become too risky,” she said. Raimondo said American firms are facing new challenges, among them “exorbitant fines without any explanation, revisions to the counterespionage law, which are unclear and sending shockwaves through the U.S. community; raids on businesses – a whole new level of challenge and we need that to be addressed.”

    She said there was “no rationale given” for Chinese actions against chipmaker Micron Technology, whose products were restricted by Beijing earlier this year and rejected any comparisons to U.S. export controls. “There has been limited due process, and that’s why I brought it up.”

    The commerce secretary is the latest Biden administration official to visit China in a bid to strengthen communications, particularly on economy and defense, amid concerns that friction between the two superpowers could spiral out of control.

    The United States is using electric vehicle tax policies to prod carmakers to shift supply chains out of China, investing billions in subsidies to boost semiconductor production and taking other actions to move some U.S. investments away from China including a new executive order.
    Raimondo insists the United States does not want to decouple from China. “We can’t have all our eggs in one basket,” she added.

    John Ramig, a partner at law firm Buchalter who has decades of expertise in international business transactions including the structuring of international sourcing and manufacturing operations, said before Raimondo’s remarks that many businesses are not looking to expand in China.

    “I don’t have one client wanting to invest in China. Not a single client. Everyone is looking to either sell their Chinese operation, or if they’re sourcing products in China, they’re looking for an alternative place to do that. That’s dramatically different from what it was even five years ago.”

    Earlier in the day, Raimondo told Chinese Premier Li Qiang at their meeting in the Great Hall of the People: “There are other areas of global concern, such as climate change, artificial intelligence, the fentanyl crisis, where we want to work with you as two global powers to do what’s right for all of humanity.”

23. Bitter Days Ahead: WHOLE Nation Is in Debt! Unemployment & Debt Push Chinese People to the Edge
    China Observer
    Aug 29, 2023

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wVO6mpxAZw

    16 minutes of tales of woe, sobbing FB’s.

    1. And yet china is doing the opposite of what they should be doing…I would be kissing every corporation’s butt to try to get them to invest And create opportunities

    2. “Bitter Days Ahead: WHOLE Nation Is in Debt!”

       Cuck Fhina

24. Clutch those pearls harder.

    Washington Post — Following Elon Musk’s lead, Big Tech is surrendering to disinformation (8/25/2023):

    “Social media companies are receding from their role as watchdogs against political misinformation, abandoning their most aggressive efforts to police online falsehoods in a trend expected to profoundly affect the 2024 presidential election.”

    Their role?

    “An array of circumstances is fueling the retreat: Mass layoffs at Meta and other major tech companies have gutted teams dedicated to promoting accurate information online. An aggressive legal battle over claims that the * administration pressured social media platforms to silence certain speech has blocked a key path to detecting election interference.

    And X CEO Elon Musk has reset industry standards, rolling back strict rules against misinformation on the site formerly known as Twitter. In a sign of Musk’s influence, Meta briefly considered a plan last year to ban all political advertising on Facebook. The company shelved it after Musk announced plans to transform rival Twitter into a haven for free speech, according to two people familiar with the plans who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive matters.

    The retrenchment comes just months ahead of the 2024 primaries, as GOP front-runner Donald Trump continues to rally supporters with false claims that election fraud drove his 2020 loss to Joe Biden. Multiple investigations into the election have revealed no evidence of fraud, and Trump now faces federal criminal charges connected to his efforts to overturn the election. Still, YouTube, X and Meta have stopped labeling or removing posts that repeat Trump’s claims, even as voters increasingly get their news on social media.”

    https://archive.li/REf4q

    81 million ballots.

    Not 81 million votes.

    1. ‘An array of circumstances is fueling the retreat: Mass layoffs at Meta and other major tech companies have gutted teams dedicated to promoting accurate information online’

       What happened was their stocks got hammered and they tossed these losers first thing.

       ‘An aggressive legal battle over claims that the * administration pressured social media platforms to silence certain speech has blocked a key path to detecting election interference’

       I’m not familiar with this legal battle.

       ‘The retrenchment comes just months ahead of the 2024 primaries, as GOP front-runner Donald Trump continues to rally supporters with false claims that election fraud drove his 2020 loss’

       Current polling shows there was fraud. How do you get 81 million votes (more than obammie) and almost nobody even wants you to run 2 and a half years later? While President Trump is towering over the field.

       1. The real question is will the Dems give up power, or if they will just cheat even harder than last time?

          1. We both know the answer to that question. Commies gonna commie.

          2. ‘will the Dems give up power’

             In this country the people are the government. To answer yer question, going into a fight you must determine yer going to win.

          3. Tyrants never give up power willingly

       2. It’s difficult to imagine that anyone intelligent endorses Zuckerberg after his 2020 election interference.

25. China’s record high 21% youth unemployment could actually be as high as 46.5%. Blame fake jobs and 16 million workers ‘lying flat’
    BY Will Daniel
    August 8, 2023 at 1:18 PM PDT
    …
    https://fortune.com/2023/08/08/china-economy-youth-unemployment-statistics-misleading-lying-flat-fake-jobs/

    1. With a picture that grim, they may as well stop reporting youth unemployment.

26. The price of happiness in FL was just reduced by 10K. Looks like a great location to start your own Breaking Bad business.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Happiness-Rd-Mary-Esther-FL-32569/46004935_zpid/

    1. 12/16/2022 Sold $28,700

       12/17/2022 Listed for sale $58,900

       SERIOUSLY??!?

27. Talked to my buddy who’s a high up regional rep for a company that specializes in outdoor furniture, gas fire pits and the like. Like my other friend in the hot tub biz, business just recently fell off a cliff for them. They’re doing a big show right now and it’s crickets chirping. Signs are everywhere that the spigot is shut off….at least for the normal folks.

    1. Inconceivable! The Brandon regime & Yellen the Felon assure us our “strongest economic recovery ever” continues unabated. We must criminalize criticism of our central bankers & central planners.

    2. If those sales don’t increase, you’re buddy might find himself as a low down instead of a high up.

    3. All those refinances in late 2021 and early 2022 were either cash-out, or restarting the 30-year clock at a lower rate and payment. Either way that’s money in homeowners pocket. That’s all dried up now.

       1. For the folks who still have equity the HELOC and second mortgages are up. But at double digit interest that money is desperation money and they’re using it to live, not a vacation to Europe or new kitchen remodel. I’d guess all this and the skyrocketing credit card debt is just paying bills and putting food on the table. That’s a horrifying way to live.

          1. Yesterday somebody posted a video about “9 signs we’re in financial trouble.” One sign was that massive numbers of people are borrowing from their 401K to live on. Now THAT’S desperation money. What will they do 15 years from now?

    4. A friend has a pool that needs resurfacing. Earlier this year, when contractors even bothered to return her calls, the bids were exorbitant. I told her to wait until later this year or next year when the funny money has dried up and the economy really sucks.

       1. Good call. Eventually, these contractors will be under-bidding each other just to make their truck payments. They’ll be working for daily survival like dogs fighting over a scrap of meat.

          1. Yep. Hope they saved their shekels. Which should be a no brainer for any contractor because feast or famine goes with the job description. My guess is most didn’t.

          2. The first thing that will happen is that the contractors start letting go the guys that do the actual work (the south of the border dudes). Once they are all gone then the contractor himself will do the work. Of course by this time most of the trucks will be repo’d and the contractor will move out of the rental place in the business park and move everything to his garage. At this point he’s struggling to pay the mortgage.

             1. You stopped in the middle of he story. That’s okay. We all know how it ends.

             2. I know a guy who lost his HVAC business during the great recession, because he grew it too fast and took on a lot of debt.

             3. He also lost his huge house.

          3. I need to check my empathy levels as that last sentence brought a huge smile to my face and made me warm all over.

28. His bankruptcy case has left a trail of million-dollar homes in visible states of disrepair across 12South and Green Hills.

    Those “million dollar homes” might now be worth considerably less.

29. ‘This is the worst purchase I ever made ― it was supposed to be my forever home but it is not going to be my forever home,’ she said.”

    Gosh, this “forever home” delusion doesn’t seem to survive contact with shoddy shack construction standards. The stamping of little feet might not remediate such structural flaws.

    1. This is the first time I’ve ever heard about “broken floor joists.” Once in a while I’ll read about beams weakened from termite damage or water rot, but those are in 75+ year old houses. What do you do to break a floor joist that’s less that 20 years old?

30. “Changes to Florida state law requiring condo inspections and repairs are bearing down on unit owners, hitting them with unexpected bills that some can’t afford and raising fears that they will be forced to sell their homes.

    Since this is Florida, I suspect most inspectors will give defect-riddled condo buildings a clean bill of health if a fat enough brown envelope is transferred.

    1. It just took one big disaster (related directly to past brown envelopes) to change the game. A string of bad weather made things much worse. The actuaries don’t take brown envelopes, they work for the biggest envelopes. Florida beefed up the rules cuz they had to. Condo buildings are like seagulls down there, everywhere. But it’s gonna hurt on the coast up north too, big time. That’s the way insurance works.

31. The signs indicate that those residents feel the customer care is ‘horrible’ and urges others ‘before you buy, come say hi.’”

    Ben, please look into hiring a blimp to tow a banner saying hi to the FBs from the deeply sympathetic HBB bunch.

32. Every time Real Journalists with globalist propaganda outlets get culturally enriched, an angel gets its wings.

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2023/08/29/chicago-tv-news-crew-robbed-at-gun-point-while-filming-a-story-about-robberies-n1722894

33. ‘We’re looking for some kind of relief because, otherwise, we’re going to have a senior exodus out of our condos,’ said Fred Nesbitt, the president of the Galt Mile Community Association, who represents owners of 36 high-rise condos and co-ops along a strip of oceanfront property in Fort Lauderdale.

    Why should taxpayers have to further subsidize greedy olds in their crumbling condos?

    1. Won’t they need buyers in order to leave? Unless they resort to jingle mail.

34. A foreclosure lawsuit accuses Maefield Development and its CEO Mark Siffin of failing to repay a $750 million loan on 20 Times Square.

    Here come the cascading defaults, to be followed by a tsunami of litigation.

35. Forward, Soviet!

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/robert-spencer/2023/08/28/colorado-dems-go-full-commie-choose-open-marxist-who-calls-for-cultural-revolution-for-state-house-seat-n1722603

36. “All across the country, downtowns, office spaces and shopping centers are at risk of becoming ground zero for a new economic hazard: the urban doom loop.

    A doom loop, you say? Pray tell, Real Journalists at WaPo, how did our once-great cities enter these urban doom loops? Was there an actual cause & effect relationship we can discern?

37. And two in five (40 per cent) of property investors are struggling to keep pace with soaring mortgage repayments and are worried they will have to sell their investment home.

    Die, speculator scum.

38. The rent is no longer covering the costs to hold this property, so if rent does not go up, we will sell up.”

    They’ll be lining up to buy your negative-cash flow rental property, so price it accordingly.

39. In 2019, the city had ‘more drug addicts than it [had] students enrolled in its public high schools,’ the San Francisco Chronicle reported

    Was the data skewed by all the drug addicts enrolled in SF public high schools?

40. Does it seem like stock investors are irrationally exuberant about a soft landing scenario, where inflation and interest rates magically drift back down to 2021 levels with no attendant recession?

    1. Yahoo Finance
       Stocks rally after job openings fall to lowest since March 2021: Stock market news today
       Karen Friar and Josh Schafer
       Tue, August 29, 2023 at 1:03 PM PDT·1 min read
       In this article:

       Stocks rose on Tuesday, picking up momentum throughout the day as new data showed signs of cooling in the labor market ahead of Friday’s August jobs report.

       The S&P 500 rose about 1.45% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.85% after US job openings fell below 9 million for the first time since March 2021 and consumer confidence reversed its summer gains. The Nasdaq Composite led gains, rising about 1.75%.

       Tuesday marked the best single-day performance for the S&P 500 since May 5.
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-rally-after-job-openings-fall-to-lowest-since-march-2021-stock-market-news-today-104157432.html

    2. forexlive.com
       Central Banks
       Fed
       The market is pricing in a soft landing with no further rate hikes
       – The economy will tell the next chapter
       Adam Button
       29/08/2023 | 10:46 GMT-7
       Powell nails landing 2
       Can Powell stick the landing?

       Today’s price action in markets embodies the perfect ending to the inflationary cycle. The slowdown in job openings and consumer confidence is correctly being viewed as a signal that the Federal Reserve no longer needs to hike rates.

       They’re not seen as a sign of an economy that’s lurching towards a recession and needs rate cuts.

       It’s a perfect landing that balances growth and inflation. The soft data is coming with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker running at 5.9% and the market sees that as plenty of rope before a recession is even a consideration.

       That’s a tough logic to argue against but I also think that it will be tough for markets to continue to cheer as economic data deteriorates further from here. Soft data has been creeping in and that could soon be followed by outright job losses and a further retrenchment from consumers.
       …
       https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-market-is-pricing-in-a-soft-landing-with-no-further-rate-hikes-20230829/

       1. What does it matter if the Fed holds? What does it matter if the Fed cuts rates? The only way this ship doesn’t go down is if we go all the way back to ZIRP which just ain’t gonna happen for a long time, if ever again in our lifetimes. I don’t know if the “market” fully gets that.

          1. The debt Ponzi must grow or die.

    3. Ya gotta admire a bear who sticks to principles in the face of market euphoria that superficially appears to disprove him!

       1. Stocks are poised to tumble – and many Americans are ‘prisoners in their own homes’ after mortgage rates soared, top economist David Rosenberg says
          Theron Mohamed
          Aug 29, 2023, 7:48 AM PDT

          – Stocks are set to slump and many Americans are “prisoners in their own homes,” David Rosenberg says.

          – Sky-high asset prices are likely to drop if the Fed marches on with interest-rate hikes, he says.

          – Rising rates have driven up mortgage costs, deterring many sellers, the economist says.

          Stocks are poised to tumble as economic pressures mount, and the historic surge in mortgage rates means many Americans are now “prisoners in their own homes,” David Rosenberg says.

          “The bond market has clearly paid a price,” he said in a Monday memo, referring to bond prices slumping in recent months as yields surged. “Round two of the drawdown in the equity market is set to follow. Cash is king.”

          The Rosenberg Research president laid out several reasons why he believes asset prices have soared to unsustainable highs. He blamed pandemic fears and excessive government stimulus for fueling carefree spending by consumers, and said enhanced unemployment benefits have driven up wages and encouraged companies to hoard workers.

          Rosenberg warned that labor-market stickiness could prevent the unemployment rate from rising enough to assuage the Federal Reserve’s concerns that the inflation threat isn’t over and the economy is overheated. The central bank might keep forging ahead with further hikes to interest rates as a result, turning the screw on the stock market and the economy, he said.

          The former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch also raised concerns about the housing market. He underlined the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates to almost zero in 2020 and 2021, which allowed homeowners to lock in long-term mortgages at rates of 2% to 3%.

          “Fully 85% of mortgagors did so and while this enabled them to escape the impact of higher interest charges as the Fed tightened, these folks ended up becoming prisoners in their own homes,” he said. “They can’t move without a serious financial penalty.”

          Rosenberg meant that potential home sellers have balked at parting with their dirt-cheap mortgages, and having to pay top dollar and take on a 7%-plus mortgage for a new place.

          The resulting dearth of existing houses for sale has led to a “bubble in home prices that exceeded what we saw in 2005-07,” he said.

          The veteran economist doubled down on his bearish outlook for stocks in a morning research note on Tuesday. He highlighted that two S&P 500 sectors which have been powering the benchmark index this year, consumer discretionary and IT, are on track for their worst month since December. He also cited declining trading volumes on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.

          Rosenberg listed several reasons to worry about the economy too. They included soaring rates of credit-card delinquency, mounting evidence of weakness in output and the labor market, higher gas prices, tighter bank lending, and the looming resumption of student-debt payments. Moreover, he raised the prospect of another government shutdown in October, and underlined the painful impact that could have on economic growth.

          The markets guru has been ringing the alarm on a bleak investing backdrop for a while. In July, he compared the speculative mania around stocks to the dot-com and housing bubbles, and warned Americans were close to exhausting their savings and struggling more and more to borrow money.
          …
          https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rosenberg-stock-market-outlook-house-prices-housing-market-mortgages-rates-2023-8

    4. The Motley Fool
       Wall Street Is 2 Weeks Away From Setting a Dubious Record
       By Sean Williams – Aug 29, 2023 at 5:06AM

       Treasury bond yields are doing something truly historic, and it’s probably not good news for investors.
       A respected predictive indicator that hasn’t been wrong in 64 years signals trouble ahead for the U.S. economy.
       Patient investors are rewarded by a simple long-term numbers game.

       September 12 will mark a potentially ominous date for the stock market and U.S. economy.

       Over very long periods, Wall Street has proved to be a virtually surefire moneymaker. But over weeks, months, or even a couple of years, directional moves in the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI 0.85%), benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.45%), and growth-oriented Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 1.74%) are practically impossible to predict with any accuracy.

       Since the beginning of the decade, we’ve watched the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite plunge into two separate bear markets (2020 and 2022), as well as surge to record highs (2021). In 2023, Wall Street is, once again, set to make records — but of the dubious variety.

       The figure that’s set to come into focus exactly two weeks from today, on Sept. 12, 2023, has to do with the Treasury yield curve.

       The yield curve is a chart that depicts the yields of Treasury bonds based on their maturity. Normally, the yield curve slopes up and to the right. This is to say that long-dated bonds that mature in 10 or 30 years will have higher yields than bills that mature in three months or one year. Logically, the longer your money is tied up, the higher the yield should be.

       However, an inverted yield curve has more often than not spelled trouble for the U.S. economy. When the yield curve inverts, short-term bills sport higher yields than long-term Treasury bonds. It’s a signal that investors see the U.S. outlook deteriorating. Although not every yield-curve inversion leads to a U.S. recession, every U.S. recession following World War II has been preceded by a yield-curve inversion.

       Since 1962, there have been five periods where the yield curve remained inverted for at least 129 trading days. We’re currently experiencing one of those periods right now, as shown in the chart shared by Bespoke Investment Group.

       As of today, Aug. 29, the 10-year bond and three-month bill have been inverted for 201 trading days. That’s the third-longest streak dating back more than 60 years. But with the 10-year/three-month yield-curve inversion still at a sizable 1.36%, Sept. 12 is set to mark the 210th day of inversion, which would signal the longest period of yield-curve inversion in history.

       Though a yield-curve inversion in no way guarantees a U.S. recession, each of the previous inversions that lasted at least 129 trading days were eventually followed by an economic downturn. Based on history, the likelihood of an economic slowdown adversely impacting the stock market and U.S. economy remains high.

       To add, history also shows that the S&P 500 has racked up around two-thirds of its losses in the year following the declaration of an official recession. In simpler terms, stocks usually perform quite poorly in the quarters immediately after a U.S. recession becomes official.

       Another leading economic indicator spells trouble, too

       However, the inverted yield curve represents just one of many predictive tools that’s currently waving a warning flag for Wall Street. The highly respected Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been a flawless predictive tool for 64 years — and it’s currently signaling trouble on the horizon.

       The LEI is made up of 10 components. Seven of these components are nonfinancial, such as the U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index, while the remaining three are financial in nature, such as the interest-rate spread between the 10-year bond less the federal funds rate.

       The LEI is reported as a six-month growth rate and compared to both the sequential six-month period as well as the comparable year-ago growth period.

       July marked the 16th consecutive monthly decline for the LEI, which is the third-longest streak on record, dating back to 1959.

       Historically speaking, the LEI has had periods in the past where it’s produced modest year-over-year declines ranging from 0.1% to 3.9%. These are viewed as moments of caution that may lead to shifts in the economic cycle.

       Where things become problematic for the U.S. economy is when the LEI declines by 4% or more on a year-over-year basis. When back-tested to 1959, every decline in the LEI of at least 4% has involved the U.S. eventually dipping into a recession. The current year-over-year drop in the LEI is practically double this historical line-in-the-sand figure of a 4% decline. In other words, the LEI is very clearly signaling that a U.S. recession is expected in the not-too-distant future.

       With the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite making a habit of setting their bear-market lows after, not prior to, a recession being declared, the historic takeaway would be that equities are headed lower.
       …
       https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/08/29/wall-street-2-weeks-away-setting-dubious-record/

41. Who would’ve thought an alleged ‘former’ cocaine trafficker, possibly involved in a murder, would default on hundreds of millions of dollars worth of loans?

    ‘Mark Siffin, developer of the Sunset Millennium project, was identified by the Nevada Supreme Court in a January opinion as appearing in police reports more than 20 years ago as an alleged “major cocaine trafficker.”’

    ‘Those police reports, the Nevada court decision said, alleged that Siffin was involved with a Reno drug dealer who was stabbed to death that year.’

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2000-jul-17-me-54311-story.html

42. ‘Adler, one of Germany’s biggest landlords, is fighting a liquidity crisis…‘We are experiencing value losses as everyone else in the market’

    Are we there yet?

    1. We’ll be there once America’s corporate landlords are enjoying life under the bus.

       Not there yet…

43. https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid0iAYYc1Nb7X5QJzQPmdVzZaXjJSbTbUhZt81esbWzgHqkVFEjXxyuxE6mKnDLbZ6Hl&id=100064343272649&post_id=100064343272649_pfbid0iAYYc1Nb7X5QJzQPmdVzZaXjJSbTbUhZt81esbWzgHqkVFEjXxyuxE6mKnDLbZ6Hl&mibextid=Nif5oz

44. ‘The rent is no longer covering the costs to hold this property, so if rent does not go up, we will sell up’

    Wa happened to my sweet equity Wellington?

45. ‘A new home launch this month by another major developer CK Asset, owned by tycoon Li Ka-shing, at the lowest prices in seven years shocked the market and could intensify a price war in the financial hub’

    This is on an island. Some of the most expensive real estate on the planet. New airboxes, which Jeebus know we all need desperately, cause prices to sink like a turd in a well. Now that’s a shortage.

46. ‘We are looking at a very difficult decade unless authorities can come out with something that is very aggressive on the structural reform side. One reason it’s so hard for China to move to a domestic-driven growth model is that they didn’t take the opportunity when things were going great to build out a comprehensive social safety net’

    That’s OK, we’ll just walk out to the time machine and turn this all around!

    ‘Where’s the biggest disconnect you see in the market? People keep looking at this as a cyclical short-term problem and [think] China will get back to the growth path it was on, and everything will be fine. Those days are over. China is never going back to prepandemic growth levels’

    Oh dear…

    1. Didn’t they pour 100 years worth of concrete in 5 or something like that? That party is over.

    2. How many worthless empty cities did they built to cook those numbers?

       1. Centrally planned growth works great, up until the point of collapse.

    3. Where is AlbuquerqueDan when you need someone to put in a hopeful word for China’s economic growth prospects?

    4. Business
       The Economist – XI’s failing model
       By WTX Business Team
       August 28, 2023
       2 Mins Read
       …
       https://wtxnews.com/xis-failing-model/

47. ‘The tangled knot of debt around one of the biggest disasters in New York real estate history is one step closer to getting cut…The suit is the most dramatic development yet in what’s been a train wreck at the crossroads of the world’

    There’s been a bunch of bigger a$$ poundings than that in NYC.

48. Oh Dear

    https://therealdeal.com/la/2023/08/23/california-court-blocks-foreclosure-of-las-oceanwide-plaza/

    1. Just getting started.

49. Listings Piling Up In Toronto Real Estate – Aug 23
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    Aug 29, 2023 CANADA

    Toronto Real Estate Market Report for the week of Aug 17 – Aug 23, 2023.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhftWJBvsRU

    11:20.

    1. Condo FB’s note: 7:35.

50. Today I found out there are drag kings. I had no idea.

    That’s it for me…I’m cutting way back on screen time and going to “touch some grass” as the saying goes (probably will buy some.)

    1. Learned minutes ago that private apartments adjacent to an Arizona college campus have a “co-ed” floor for those with gender dysphoria. FWIW, I’ve been binging on flower farming content. Check out Flower Hill Farm in Upstate NY and Northlawn Flower Farm in SE PA. Happy thoughts!!!

       1. Northlawn Flower Farm

          Once you get past her voice, her content is really good.

       2. Regenerative Gardening is another good channel.

       3. We found a Monarch caterpillar a couple of weeks ago and set it up in a box with a plastic front. Fed it milkweed leaves. Today a butterfly was released.

          1. ♥️

          2. As we’re watching the hummingbirds suck down nectar from the feeders outside our living room window before sunset and discussing the migratory pattern and audacity of rufous hummingbirds, some of whom we’ve named Fat Tony.

       4. This year I refreshed my uncomplicated pollinator garden: Butterfly Weed and Joe Pye Weed and Swamp Milkweed. I have a couple Bee Balm and Cardinal Flower but I’ll need more of those. My favorite is Virginia Mountain Mint, a native around here. Right about now it’s nearly covered with bees; mostly bumblebees, but I’ve seen a couple honeybees. Next year, as the plants are more established, more pollinators will find them.

          1. I didn’t fully appreciate until now how intense our sun is, which, coupled with a salicylate sensitivity, would explain squamous cell carcinoma before 35yo.

             1. I was stopped in a hallway by a hospital worker in 1991 about a large freckle-ly discoloration on my collarbone when I was there for an amniocentesis. Went to a doctor that afternoon who went pale when he saw it, no game face at all. All he kept saying to me was “how pregnant are you?” Cut it out right there and then. Had to wait at least a week back in those days (1991) for the biopsy. Good times.

51. “summer blockbuster” political ad (10m20s)

    1. It was difficult to sit still through that clip. Whew!

52. Mortgage Rate Increase Slows HELOC Activity in First Half of 2023
    in Affordability, Daily Dose, Data, Featured, Market Studies, Market Trends, Migration, News, Origination, Real Estate, REO
    4 days ago 162 Views

    According to Freddie Mac data, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) has reached its highest level in 21 years. A new CoreLogic release revealed the increase will not only further erode U.S. home affordability but also discourage homeowners from tapping loans against their accrued equity.

    While home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and home equity loans gained popularity as owners leveraged accumulated equity in 2022, the appeal has dampened in 2023. Demand for HELOCs is typically linked to current interest rates, which have been steadily rising over the past few years.

    Despite interest rate hikes, HELOC activity surged in 2022. Escalating mortgage rates compared with those seen in 2021 significantly curtailed refinancing opportunities and resulted in an uptick in HELOC activity.

    The HELOC landscape has changed dramatically so far in 2023, as the elevated interest rates of the past six months discourage homeowners from pursuing such loans. Additionally, the average rates on 30-year, FRMs surged by nearly 2 percentage points during the first half of 2023, averaging 6.44% compared with the same period in 2022.

    Annual U.S. HELOC Numbers Drop Substantially in the First Half of 2023

    HELOC activity peaked in 2022, marking the highest level since the first half of 2007, but this number dropped in the first half of 2023. During that time period, lenders initiated over 645,000 new HELOCs, amounting to almost $98 billion. Despite a decrease of 26% in HELOC counts and a 32% reduction in amounts on a year-over-year basis in 2023, it’s worth noting that the HELOC market is keeping pace with its pre-pandemic level.

    HELOC Trends by State: California, Florida, and North Carolina Lead in 2023

    Figure 2 shows a comparative analysis of approved HELOC amounts (by billions) during the first half of 2023 and the corresponding period in 2022 across 15 U.S. states.

    In 2023, all tracked states have seen HELOC activity decrease compared with 2022. Notably, California posted the highest approved HELOC amount, surpassing $9 billion so far in 2023. That number is currently down from the $15 billion in HELOC loans that the Golden State recorded in 2022 but still accounts for around 10% of the nation’s overall activity.

    Florida followed closely, with $7 billion in HELOC loans, while North Carolina ranked No. 3 at $4.2 billion. It’s worth noting that the states that saw the most significant HELOC activity declines were those where home prices have either recently remained flat or dropped, including Utah, Idaho, Hawaii, and Montana.
    …
    https://themreport.com/news/data/08-25-2023/mortgage-rate-increase

    1. Seems like the home equity ATM gravy train is drying up.

53. Do you have a sneaking suspicion that it is time for you to bail on your investment properties, before CR8R?

    1. It may be time for investors to bail on their housing properties
       By Lew Sichelman
       Andrews McMeel Syndication
       August 28, 2023 5:30 AM
       A SOLD sign is attached to a For Sale sign outside a home on Friday, May 21, 2021, in South Bend.
       Tribune Photo/ROBERT FRANKLIN / USA TODAY NETWORK

       Small-time investors who flocked to the housing market in recent years have done well. But it’s now time to sell, says one of the nation’s top housing economists. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, believes now is the right time for investors to take their gains and head for the exits. In other words, take those profits and get out while the gettin’ is good. Of course, Yun has something of an ulterior motive: He’d like to see more houses available to the hordes of people struggling to buy homes, and it is his association’s members who sell the bulk of those houses.

       Still, there’s no denying that investors in single-family houses and condominium apartments have done pretty darn well in recent years. Over the last three years, for example, the typical house value has “soared’ by 35.5%, according to NAR’s figures. And over the last five years, values leapt by 50.8%. Lots of equity for homeowners As a result, investors have built up a ton of equity, just like owner-occupants. ATTOM reports that almost half of all mortgaged residential properties are “equity rich,” meaning what their owners owe is half — or less — of what their places are worth. The typical American homeowner now has more than $274,000 in equity, says Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. So the average seller — including investors — would pocket more than a quarter-million dollars after paying off their loan. Then there’s the money investors collect every month from tenants: Rents have gone up in recent years, just like house values.

       NAR reports that rents have risen more than 16% over last three years, and nearly 25% over the last five. The national average rent for a two-bedroom apartment was $1,320 as of February, according to Statista. But the median is more than $2,000, Zillow reports, and it’s likely even more for rental houses. NAR’s Yun points out that all of these gains took root when low-cost financing was plentiful. Now, though, mortgage rates are bouncing around the 7% level. Prices in many places have become static or are falling, and rents are being rolled back.

       All real estate is local, so the situation may be entirely different in your market. But from 30,000 feet, it appears that investors have played out their hands.
       …
       Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article278570389.html#storylink=cpy

       1. I keep seeing relitters talking about mortgages “bouncing around” the 7% level, but a glance at the data suggests we are headed towards 8%.

          1. Money Mortgages
             Today’s Mortgage Rates for Aug. 28, 2023: Rates Tick Up for Homebuyers

             A few closely followed mortgage rates crept higher this week. See how the Fed’s interest rate hikes could affect your home loan payments.
             Katherine Watt
             Updated Aug. 29, 2023
             6 min read

             A handful of benchmark mortgage rates moved up over the last seven days. The average 15-year fixed and 30-year fixed mortgage rates both inched higher. For variable rates, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage also increased.

             As inflation surged in 2022, so too did mortgage rates. To rein in price growth, the Federal Reserve began bumping up its federal funds rate — a short term interest rate that determines what banks charge each other to borrow money. By making it more expensive to borrow, the central bank’s goal is to reduce prices by curtailing consumer spending.

             During its July 26 meeting, the Fed initiated a 25-basis point (or 0.25%) hike to its federal funds rate, marking its 11th increase in the current rate hiking cycle. The most recent increase could have an impact on mortgage rates, but experts say the markets may have already factored it into rates.

             Current mortgage rates for August 2023
             …
             30-year fixed-rate mortgages

             The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.61%, which is a growth of 6 basis points compared to one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) The most common loan term is a 30-year fixed mortgage.
             …
             https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/mortgages/mortgage-interest-rates-today-for-aug-28-2023-tick-up/

54. Are you concerned that housing demand will collapse once student debtors realize they have to repay their loans?

    1. Student Loans
       Published August 29, 2023 7:00am EDT
       US housing market faces new hurdle: Student loan repayments
       Student loan repayments threaten to hit housing market this fall
       By Megan Henney FOXBusiness

       The U.S. housing market has been over the past year walloped by high mortgage rates and a worsening inventory shortage.

       It may soon face another obstacle: Student loan repayments.

       Real estate experts are bracing for a significant blow to the market when the pandemic-era freeze on federal student loan payments comes to an end this fall, according to a recent poll conducted by Pulsenomics.

       Most survey respondents said homeownership rates will be affected for at least a year by the resumption of student loan payments – and many predicted the impact could be longer than that.

       For more than three years, federal student loan borrowers have not had to make monthly payments.

       But that pandemic-era pause is coming to an end this fall, setting up a potential financial shock for millions of Americans. Although payments will not come due until October, interest will start accruing at the start of September.

       More than 75% of the survey respondents said that the payments will have a negative effect on homeownership that lasts for a year or more. About 40% predicted an even longer impact of at least three years.

       About 44 million borrowers in the U.S. were affected by the payment pause, which initially began in March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Biden administration extended the pause for the eighth time last November but will not do so again as part of the bipartisan debt ceiling deal approved by Congress.
       …
       https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-housing-market-faces-new-hurdle-student-loan-repayments

       1. “For more than three years, federal student loan borrowers have not had to make monthly payments.”

          This was a great opportunity to lower your principal balance while taxpayers paid the interest on the balance due.

    2. Are you concerned that housing demand will collapse once student debtors realize they have to repay their loans?

       I’ve seen a few articles talking about how after loan forgiveness so and so was able to secure a mortgage and now they cannot afford all of their debt obligations.

       Sound lending!

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