thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Given The Heavy Discounts Developers Have Been Extending, Eager Second-Hand Homeowners Will Need To Further Reduce Prices To Complete Any Transaction

A report from Reuters. “The Federal Reserve has issued a slew of private warnings to lenders with assets of $100 billion to $250 billion as part of increased efforts to tighten supervision, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday citing people familiar with the matter. Among the banks given the warnings were Citizens Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp and M&T Bank Corp, the report added. The notices touched on a wide range of issues including lenders’ capital and liquidity as well as technology and compliance, according to the report. Banks are dealing with the aftermath of the biggest crisis to hit the sector since 2008, which saw three mid-sized lenders collapse earlier this year.”

From Fortune. “Independent mortgage banks and other mortgage lending subsidiaries reported a net loss of $534 per mortgage origination in the second quarter of 2023, according to data produced by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That’s the fifth straight quarter that banks lost money on mortgages. Among the contributing factors to mortgage lending industry challenges are surging mortgage rates, a lack of housing supply and low consumer confidence. These have ‘crushed the mortgage industry over the past two years,’ John Paasonen, CEO at digital mortgage platform Maxwell, tells Fortune. ‘Mortgage lenders have begun significantly adjusting their cost base through layoffs and vendor negotiations in the last 12 months, but there still hasn’t been enough volume in the market to offset those costs.'”

The Chicago Tribune in Illinois. “Chicago-based mortgage company Guaranteed Rate has been quietly laying off employees across the country for more than a year, according to former and current Guaranteed Rate employees. More layoffs are potentially on the horizon, and company morale is ‘in the toilet,’ as one current employee put it. The layoffs come at a time when the hot pandemic-era housing market has turned on its head, with the average for a 30-year fixed loan skyrocketing to more than 7% on more than one occasion. Inside Mortgage Finance finds business is down nearly 60% for Guaranteed Rate in the first three months of this year compared with 2022, with other mortgage companies seeing similar harsh declines.”

“Khadijah Parks, 27, worked for Guaranteed Rate as a remote employee based out of New Jersey before she was laid off from a technology team in October 2022. She was brought on during the hiring boom to be on a new team that helped support other mortgage companies Guaranteed Rate was acquiring and creating. Now, she said, her team and other tech teams have been decimated. Parks worked for the company for about 11 months and was laid off right before her severance package would have increased significantly if she had made the one-year mark, she said. ‘It was terrible,’ Parks said, who had come back from vacation the day of her layoff. ‘They had the nerve to even say I could feel free to finish up the work I was doing.'”

The Naples Daily News in Florida. “More than 30 years ago, Boris and Lucy Deriy left Russia to live the American dream. They arrived in the United States in 1992 with five suitcases and two children in tow, eager to start over in a new country. In December 2021, they signed a contract to build their dream home on their dream lot in Golden Gate Estates. In May, their excitement turned to frustration, disappointment and skepticism, when construction abruptly stopped, and never restarted. Metro Home Builders has since ceased operations and filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, leaving the Deriys and dozens of other customers in limbo.”

“The bankruptcy filing reveals nearly 60 houses have not been completed. The houses are in various stages of construction. ‘What’s important is that regardless of our stories, backgrounds, ethnicity, age or level of education we all find ourselves in the same situation. And we all are helpless,’ Lucy said. In the Deriy’s case, Metro Home took more than 75% of the money for their new house and left it not even half built. They estimate their losses at more than $100,000. They signed a contract for nearly $551,000, including $92,000 in upgrades. ‘It was a dream home. It doesn’t look like a dream anymore,’ Lucy said. ‘What we need is to get our money back,’ Boris said.”

A press release. “Investor home purchases fell 45% from a year earlier in the second quarter, outpacing the 31% drop in overall home sales, according to Redfin. That’s the biggest decline since 2008 with the exception of the quarter before, when they dropped 48%. ‘Offers from hedge funds have dried up; I haven’t received an offer from one in a long time, except unrealistically low offers,’ said Las Vegas Redfin Premier agent Shay Stein. ‘From mid-2020 until early 2022 when interest rates started going up, hedge funds bought up a ton of properties and immediately turned them into rentals, pricing out local buyers. Now a big portion of our homes are owned by investors, but they’re not adding to their portfolios.'”

“Investor purchases declined 65% year over year in Las Vegas, Jacksonville, FL and Phoenix, the biggest drops of the metros in this analysis. Investors are pulling back quickly from the Sun Belt and Florida largely because those places had an even bigger boom in homebuying demand than the rest of the country in 2021 and early 2022, and now they’re cooling fast.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Higher interest rates and strained affordability in the Toronto-area housing market are creating thorny issues for married couples going through separation or divorce. The turbulence that often comes with relationship breakdown is magnified in 2023 if the couple owns property and needs to divide the value of the matrimonial home in a volatile real estate market. ‘This is creating increased conflict,’ says Lisa Chegini, managing partner at the family law firm Caspersz Chegini LLP in Vaughan, Ont., ‘It includes this whole unfortunate circumstance of each party’s money being held hostage in the home.'”

“Climbing interest rates and stubborn inflation have exacerbated many conflicts, she says, and people lack visibility about the future. ‘There’s that feeling of loss of control because there’s no light at the end of the tunnel.’ In addition to the pain of marriage breakdown, couples are grappling with greater financial hardship if the property has lost value since they purchased it. ‘They say, ‘I thought my biggest investment would have some kind of return – even if my relationship didn’t work out.'”

The Express in the UK. “Around 1 million property sales are said to be completed in 2023 which is the lowest since 2012. On top of this house sales are 21 percent lower than in 2022, new data Zoopla has found. On BBC’s Wake Up to Money, Jackie Quinn, estate agent in Ashtead explained the change in the market is regional as many people in London, or central areas are selling up their expensive properties to find somewhere bigger in the suburbs. She said: ‘The market has changed. We are dropping some of our properties now by even 10 percent. We are seeing some sales fall through because mortgage products or repayments on a monthly basis are going up four or five times than what was expected when rates are lower.'”

ABC News in Australia. “Tears stream down Rebekah’s face as she looks out at rolling green hills from what is meant to be the master bedroom of her dream home. She’s spent her life savings on this project. The problem is, the house doesn’t have walls or a roof. Instead, the two-storey frame is falling down, and, after being exposed to the elements for months, it now resembles a rubbish dump. The single mother’s only option is to knock it down and say goodbye to hundreds of thousands of dollars after her builder suddenly abandoned the project she says was riddled with defects.”

“‘When I realised I had to demolish what I thought was going to be my forever home, I had a full breakdown, I lost my job … I couldn’t look after myself,’ Rebekah said. ‘Nearly every cent of mine and my pensioner mother’s savings have gone into that house, which we were building for us and my kids.’ Four months and $250,000 later, she said the builder disappeared and never returned. Her story is far from unique and one that is being replicated across the country as politicians wrestle with how to solve the housing crisis and shore up a precarious building sector.”

“One of the people who tried to alert the building regulator about Mr Cherry was Andrea Brown. Her family was building the home they planned to retire in a few kilometres down the road from Rebekah in Jan Juc before the company Mr Cherry worked for — Halkin Developments — went into liquidation in May 2022. While Ms Brown’s $970,000 build started quickly, she said there were numerous problems, excuses and poor workmanship, including a slab that was poured short and hebel installation that had to be ripped out and done again, according to an independent building report seen by the ABC. ‘Our whole world just came crashing down with that phone call [from the liquidators] and that’s when the nightmare really began,’ she said.”

“Ms Brown said she had no choice but to demolish the home that was 60 per cent built, and start again. Her family has lost close to $1 million and has been left with an empty block. ‘Here we are, three years down the track and we have nothing, absolutely nothing,’ she said. ‘The biggest cost is the mental health cost and the time wasted fighting these battles when all we wanted was a house. You go [to the property] and it just reminds you of all the pain, anguish and the financial loss that the last few years of our life had been, and it shouldn’t have been that way.'”

South China Morning Post. “Hong Kong’s lived-in home prices declined for a third straight month in July to a six-month low. The decline in second-hand prices was ‘larger than expected,’ according to Derek Chan, the head of research at Ricacorp Properties. Given the heavy discounts that developers have been extending to buyers of new homes, ‘eager second-hand homeowners’ will ‘need to further reduce prices to complete any transaction,’ he said.”

From Reuters. “China’s largest private property developer warned on Wednesday of default risks if its financial performance continues to deteriorate, and said it ;felt deeply remorseful; for its record loss in the first half. Country Garden posted a net loss between January and June of 48.9 billion yuan ($6.72 billion), versus a 6.7 billion yuan net loss in the second half of 2022 and a 612 million yuan net profit in the first half of 2022. ‘If the financial performance of the group continues to deteriorate in the future, the group might not be able to fulfil the financial covenants of these borrowings, which may result in default in these borrowings and cross-default in certain other borrowings,’ the developer said in a filing. ‘The company feels deeply remorseful for the unsatisfactory performance,’ it said.”

“Many Chinese developers have so far posted losses or drops in profit for the first half as nationwide sales soften. State-backed China Resources Land told an earnings conference on Wednesday it expected the country’s home sales in the full year would be flat from last year or register a small decline, as demand was dropping long term. It added that the number of visitors to its sales showrooms continued to drop in August. “

Related Posts

Is It Good, Bad, Or Just Downright Ugly?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6W70SELLHQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H7pkLmFeLc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab3LCFy99tA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxzOW8UWSuM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-hN8T8FvMU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfHzxt6eLiI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao2vbD_A8lQ

This Post Has 143 Comments

  2. ‘she had no choice but to demolish the home that was 60 per cent built, and start again. Her family has lost close to $1 million and has been left with an empty block. ‘Here we are, three years down the track and we have nothing, absolutely nothing,’ she said. ‘The biggest cost is the mental health cost and the time wasted fighting these battles when all we wanted was a house. You go [to the property] and it just reminds you of all the pain, anguish and the financial loss that the last few years of our life had been, and it shouldn’t have been that way’

    Well it was cheaper than renting Andrea.

    1. You go [to the property] and it just reminds you of all the pain, anguish and the financial loss that the last few years of our life had been, and it shouldn’t have been that way’

      Gosh, Andrea. I’m trying to summon up some vicarious empathy as I watch the RBA’s housing bubble bust from afar, but I’m just not feeling it. You bought into a housing bubble, pricing out the prudent & responsible, which makes you an accessory to this, not a victim.

    2. “Her family has lost close to $1 million ”

      That’s $650K in American dollars. That’s an awful lot of eggs to put into one basket.

        1. this huge trend of vanishing aussie homebuilders is very perplexing to me. how the hell can so many bidness’ run by so many people, just up & disappear?!
          it’s almost like there is a fleet of yachts secretly anchored off shore comprised of these scammy scummy “Homebuilders”, all laughing their arse off while they party hearty, completely DGAF of the trail of tears left behind.

          where are the govt regulators?! I’ve yet to read about anyone held acountable, besides the usual ” Gosh, I’m really really sorry, mate!”
          no jail ?! nothing! there must have been some mighty thick envelopes going ’round for this amount of official govt lack of enforcement.

          this kind of BS is why I only voted for Obammy ONCE.

          1. ‘how the hell can so many bidness’ run by so many people, just up & disappear?’

            This is how most operate at the end. Just cut off communications. Phones are always the first to go. They didn’t disappear.

          2. And once the phones are gone you will find the place of business is empty without even a sign on the door saying “out of business”. Anything left behind probably has a lien on it.

  3. ‘Investor home purchases fell 45% from a year earlier in the second quarter, outpacing the 31% drop in overall home sales, according to Redfin. That’s the biggest decline since 2008 with the exception of the quarter before, when they dropped 48%. ‘Offers from hedge funds have dried up; I haven’t received an offer from one in a long time, except unrealistically low offers’

    That’s the spirit investors, bomb Shay with those lowballs!

    2. Meanwhile, a house on my block is going to sell fast. (Not the grandma-finally-died house; this is a different house.) It went on the market on a few weeks ago. Over that weekend there were three individual showings and an open house. The house went Pending on Zillow after three days on market, at list price. Even after that, I saw at least two more interested parties drive up and walk around the house.

      Yesterday, the sign in front said Sold, even though it’s still Pending on Zillow. I don’t know if the house actually closed, or if they just put up the Sold sign to keep away more interested parties.

      If the house really did close, it would be only 3 weeks after it hit the market. That’s not enough time for a traditional mortgage closing, so it must have been a cash offer. Is it going to be a rental? An STR party house? Or a downsizer with a wad of cash on hand? I don’t know.

  4. ‘It was terrible,’ Parks said, who had come back from vacation the day of her layoff. “They had the nerve to even say I could feel free to finish up the work I was doing’

    Oh and Khadijah, I know you have yer hands full with that box of personal belongings, but could you take out this trash bag on the way to yer car?

    2. The article says she was a remote worker, so she must have gotten the “you’re fired” email, no boxes to pack. In fact I’m surprised she still had access to the system to finish up work. She could have done a lot of damage.

      1. TPS reports?

        I tried to look it up and got Temporary Protected Status, Third Party Sale, Trust Preferred Securities, and Tenant Profile Submission.

        None of them look like sound lending.

      1. FWIW, she had accrued 1 year’s worth of vacation. I’ve seen people who wanted to take a vacation 1 month after starting.

        On the other hand, there had to be rumors of the impending layoff. When you hear those sorts of rumors you don’t take a vacation. You start applying for a new job.

        1. * “I’ve seen people who wanted to take a vacation 1 month after starting.”

          raising hand. err, that would be ME after a month of pungent diapers. ((shudder))

  5. “Khadijah Parks, 27, worked for Guaranteed Rate as a remote employee based out of New Jersey before she was laid off from a technology team in October 2022.

    Learn to mine coal, Khadijaha.

      1. X

        Here’s a rabbit hole for you. X is an occult symbol for Osiris Rising/Risen. Related key words: Aleister Crowley and OTO.

  7. ‘There’s that feeling of loss of control because there’s no light at the end of the tunnel.’

    Wut? You mean Lil’ Fidel’s globalist Quisling regime isn’t ushering a new era of prosperity for all?

      1. I suspect his replacement will be even worse, and Li’l Fidel will be given a well paid position in a think tank.

          1. From what I found online, the next Canadian election isn’t until 2025, unless something has changed. I think Fidelito has two more years, though he could dissolve parliament early.

          2. I purposefully don’t know much about how parliaments work nor do I care. I do watch K-dn videos on this subject. He’s under pressure to resign, which I think would trigger an election, which Labor is polling to lose bigly. And that polling has slid remarkably in recent weeks showing a classic tide turning in public mood. Blood is in the water.

          3. He could step down as PM without dissolving the Parliament. It’s essentially what happened in Kiwiland when Ardern announced she was stepping down: same Parliament, which chose another hard leftist as her replacement.

            Trudeau dissolved Parliament in 2021 because he thought his party could win enough seats to not need to form a coalition government. It didn’t. If he were to dissolve it now there is a very good possibility that a center right majority coalition could take power, meaning he won’t dissolve it and instead kick the can down to 2025.

            Now, it is possible that the coalition will tell him he has to step down so they can pretend to move to center, to hold onto power in 2025.

  8. The single mother’s only option is to knock it down and say goodbye to hundreds of thousands of dollars after her builder suddenly abandoned the project she says was riddled with defects.”

    Why is it that single mothers always feature prominently in these stories of gullibility gone wrong?

    1. “…single mothers always feature prominently…”

      Add to the, “we’re all in this together,” column.

    2. There used to be shme in single moths. Now it is a forced status symbol. Divorced, widowed? Okay. Single=no sympathy scum.

  10. LOL@ remember back in the 1990s and 2000s when you could buy a used Toyota Camry or Honda Accord in decent condition for $2,500?

    3. I remember getting a used Mazda 3i with 36K miles on it for $6500 back in 2019. I think that would cost $15K these days if you’re lucky

    4. when you could buy a used Toyota Camry or Honda Accord in decent condition for $2,500?

      Maybe if it had 200K miles on the odometer.Of course now that kind of cr would fetch $8K

    5. In 2006 I bought a 2001 Honda Civic LX with approximately 60k miles for $6,000.

      I just looked on Carfax and they are going for $3,000 – $5,000+. Insane. It’s a great car, but at 20+ years lots of little things need work.

  11. Downtown Denver businesses say revenue losses are mounting as encampments engulf streets around them (8/29/2023):

    “A growing list of downtown Denver businesses say their sales are in a downward spiral because of a growing line of homeless encampments surrounding them on almost all sides now.

    Two weeks after Denver7 exposed the issues with growing encampments at Broadway and California Street, business owners say the issue continues to scare away customers and potential employees.

    “They’re scared,” said Danny Newman, owner of Mercury Café at the corner of 22nd and California streets. “They’re uncomfortable. It’s hard to get people motivated to walk through that.”

    “There is no direct way to park and get to our entrance without walking through a homeless encampment right now,” said Scott Coors, owner of Triangle Bar on Broadway.

    Business owners here say attacks are also becoming more frequent.

    Denver7 obtained video of one incident caught on camera as a man tried to steal a woman’s bag, dragging her violently on the sidewalk near Broadway and 21st as she held on for dear life. In the video, a man then comes to the woman’s defense and is able to defuse the situation and get the woman her bag back.

    “It’s everywhere,” said Mark Berzins, owner of British Bulldog. “We had another assault in front of our bar where a passer-by was hit with a baseball bat just this past weekend.”

    https://www.denver7.com/news/local-news/downtown-denver-businesses-say-revenue-losses-are-mounting-as-encampments-engulf-streets-around-them

    The /r/Denver Reddit thread about this article is as sad and weak as you’d expect.

    “They’re not sending their best”

    1. Related article.

      The Atlantic — I DON’T KNOW THAT I WOULD EVEN CALL IT METH ANYMORE (10/18/2021):

      “Different chemically than it was a decade ago, the drug is creating a wave of severe mental illness and worsening America’s homelessness problem.”

      https://archive.ph/v3ltQ

  12. A reader sent these in:

    When it rains crap macro data, it pours…Today’s guest star, Australia!

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1696799452403568998

    This is getting ridiculous … Mitch McConnell freezes again while speaking at a press conference 🔥🔥🔥 Who thinks we need age limits for Congress? What would be the maximum age and why?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1696972707546398934

    “I recently applied for food stamps because I get paid monthly, and sometimes I don’t even make it paycheck to paycheck.”
    Americans are struggling but the problem keeps being ignored.
    🚨🚨🚨
    We are gradually losing the middle class and could descend into a country with the top 10% owning all of the assets. Everyone else will be renting, living paycheck to paycheck and requiring extensive govt support for basics.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1697018018507682289

    • Weak job openings
    • GDP revised down
    • Slowing job growth
    Economic data sucks, so why are stocks ripping? Bad news is good news right now. Sour data relaxes investor fears of a hawkish Fed—igniting hopes of relaxed policy to support asset prices. I don’t make the rules.

    https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1696898045105906069

    So with GDP revised lower to 2.1%, where are the clowns celebrating Atlanta Fed 5.8% forecast for next Q which is a pipe dream?

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1696867521670926607

    In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
    – Jobs
    – JOLTS
    – New Home sales
    – Housing Starts and Permits
    – Industrial Production
    – PCE and core PCE

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1696863551606964264

    ADP Employment Report Signals Slowdown In Labor Market, Wage Growth Slows Dramatically

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1696861355339317620

    Commercial real estate prices prices are down sharply this year with offices building prices down ~30%. On top of declining prices, there are nearly $1.4 TRILLION of commercial real estate loans coming due by 2025. Rates on the commercial real estate loans have more than doubled since they were issued. On top of this, vacancies in commercial real estate are skyrocketing which means rent revenue is down. We now have declining prices with rising rates on loans that need to be refinanced and lack income to be paid. What could possibly go wrong?

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1696628077336445306

    Corporate profits contracted by 6.5% year/year in 2Q23 … acceleration to downside from prior quarter’s 1.8% decline; worst drop since pandemic

    https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1696867122268319750

    US 2y yields plunge 15bps to 4.90% following weak JOLTS numbers which fuel recession fears.

    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1696529001416950136

    U.S. 🇺🇲 Quits Rate

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1696860098998509691

    Great Idea 💡

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1696586196468588814

    Sleeping on the job

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1696542415350358451

    THIS was a financial war crime, and NO ONE responsible will be accountable in any way for seriously harming hundreds of millions of Americans you don’t see on CNBC every day.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1696928371744334284

    More than 1.2 million small businesses in Japan have owners aged about 70 with no successor, per the Guardian.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1696853018254471373

    Japan has reported its most substantial annual population decline since 1968, signaling a pivotal moment in the nation’s demographic landscape in July.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1697081272231981556

    1. “We are gradually losing the middle class and could descend into a country with the top 10% owning all of the assets”

      Another World Economic Forum success story.

      The wealth transfer that started with CCP Flu, they will attempt to accelerate with phony climate change.

      #DoNotComply

    2. ‘Who thinks we need age limits for Congress?’

      IMO it would be far more useful to change the power structure that makes these old turds hang onto office for so long.

      1. Agree. We don’t need age or term limits; we need better voters. And more support for candidates in primaries.

    4. “I recently applied for food stamps because I get paid monthly, and sometimes I don’t even make it paycheck to paycheck.”

      Wut happened to baby daddy?

  13. Orsted A/S shares plunged the most on record after the renewable energy company warned of impairments of as much as 16 billion Danish kroner ($2.3 billion) to its US portfolio because of supply chain issues and soaring interest rates.

    The drop — as much as 25% — was the steepest since the company’s 2016 initial public offering and erased the equivalent of more than $8 billion in market value. It’s a further blow to the offshore wind industry struggling with soaring materials costs.

    The company’s Ocean Wind 1, Sunrise Wind, and Revolution Wind projects in the US are being hurt by supplier delays, which could lead to writedowns of up to 5 billion kroner, it said late Tuesday. High interest rates could also add another 5 billion.

    In addition, the developer is still in talks with federal stakeholders to qualify for additional tax credits, which haven’t progressed as expected. If unsuccessful, it could lead to impairments of as much as 6 billion kroner.

    “While the bulls could argue many of these issues related to the impairment are already known, the announcement is unlikely to bode well for an already-weakened Orsted share price,” Citigroup Inc. analyst Jenny Ping said in a note Wednesday. “We continue to see a number of challenges to offshore wind,” including affordability and fierce competition. Orsted’s troubles are the latest in a series of struggles for the wind-power industry.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/orsted-shares-plunge-company-warns-101633418.html

    1. to qualify for additional tax credits, which haven’t progressed as expected

      That’s what it always boils down to.

      1. Every time I look into solar panels, even with the subsidies, it gets more expensive. A lot more expensive. They simply do not pencil out.

        1. I knew that solar was fishy 15 years ago when nobody — neither person nor in any magazine writings — would give a straight answer regarding the cost to solar power a typical home with typical usage. Instead, I had to read entire missives on how to calculate your usage from your electric bill, opportunities to conserve electricity, what % of that usage would come from solar, net metering and grid fees, what tax breaks were in place at any one time, and howmuchamonth payments. And all of this tripe was written in happy horses3!t language laced with greenie propaganda and disdain for the evil corporate power plants.

          My best ballpark guess was that the whole shebang would cost $60-70K (in 2010 dollars) to fully power a typical 3/2 house. No wonder they didn’t want to give a straight answer. The panels would wear out before they could even get close to paying for themselves.

          1. Right now the only way to justify solar is if you expect rolling blackouts to become the norm.

            And yeah, you’re right. No one will give you a straight answer on the cost. Even if you get a bid, the subsidies are estimated and the disclaimer that you might not get them is there.

            I did look at Tesla’s web page. They estimated that it would be about $25K, storage (batteries) not included. That’s about 25 years of power, and from what I have read the panels won’t last that long. Plus there will be inevitable repairs along the way.

          2. If I expected rolling blackouts, I would just spend $10K on three or four electric generators from Inergy or Jackery. Basically they’re batteries. You can charge them with solar panels or charge them from an outlet.

            You charge them when the power is on and let them run when the power is off. Less than $10K all told. Of course this would defeat the purpose of a rolling blackout, but only if everybody does it (which they won’t, because they don’t know about it). Pure solar is only necessary if you’re in total grid-down.

          3. We (about 5,200 people, east side LV, NV) had no power for a little over an hour this morning. It doesn’t happen often, but it’s often enough to make you 🤔

  14. Health officials “got so much wrong during the COVID-19 pandemic and asserted it with such confidence that they will not soon restore the trust they once enjoyed,” warns The Arizona Republic’s Phil Boas. “In the past two years, confidence in health-care officials has dropped 10 points.” Unsurprising, after Dr. Tony Fauci continually changed his mind and “fudged the truth.” Crucially, after months of condemning conservative outdoor protests, public-health experts OK’d social-justice protests, showing that “American public health had been captured by ideology.” With the new BA.2.86 variant, “it is more important than ever that medical professionals tell the truth and not twist it to produce desired outcomes.”

    https://nypost.com/2023/08/30/a-middle-finger-to-new-mandates-the-grim-result-of-bidenomics-and-other-commentary/

    1. “confidence in health-care officials has dropped 10 points”

      The only one I trust is my dentist I’ve been seeing for over a decade.

      Cleaning people’s teeth, fillings, crowns, impants, etc, working over patients’ open mouths and noses all day and guess what, the dentists and hygeinists aren’t all dead yet. Imagine that.

    2. I lost confidence over 15 years ago when a doctor told my wife that what you eat doesn’t really affect your health. My jaw dropped and I wondered what kind of corrupt morons were coming out of medical schools. I also had my mother’s doctors tell me that it’s normal to have chronic illnesses.

      1. “…what you eat doesn’t really affect your health…”

        Such great news!

        That validates my office mate’s diet of Doritos and Diet Coke.

    3. Unsurprising, after Dr. Tony Fauci continually changed his mind and “fudged the truth.”

      Fudged the truth? Fauchi & the whole COVID cabal were pathological liars pushing a genocidal agenda.

  16. New York Attorney General Letitia James reminds you that students between the ages of 5 and 21 have the right to a free public-school education in our state, regardless of the student’s nationality or
    immigration status. Policies that prevent students from enrolling in their local public school violate this important right.

    In addition, schools may not require your Social Security number or any information about your. immigration status as a condition of enrollment.

    https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/letters/kyr-ed.pdf

    1. It’s going to be interesting to see if, and how, assets of these fraudsters will be seized and liquidated. I’m sure very little of it is sitting in an account somewhere. Most of it sunk into cars, boats, real estate, home accessories, etc.

    2. According to court documents, Karen Chapon, aka Karen Hannafious, 53, submitted six fraudulent PPP loan applications to three financial institutions for her companies. From April 2020 to July 2020, Chapon made multiple false statements about her companies’ respective business operations and payroll expenses, and submitted false documents to support the loan applications, including false federal tax filings. As part of the loan applications, Chapon falsely stated that she had not been convicted of a felony in the past five years, but in fact, she pleaded guilty to felony fraud offenses in 2016. She received four loans totaling approximately $596,931. Chapon used fraudulently obtained funds for her own benefit, including the purchase of a Mercedes Benz SUV.

      false federal tax filings – those should have been easy to vet and catch as fake.

      she pleaded guilty to felony fraud offenses in 2016 – that too should have been easy to catch. But I’m sure whoever processed the loan applications was told to expedite the process and get money into applicants hands ASAP.

    3. So I’m feeling a good business opportunity here. Maybe even have your own reality show like Dog The Bounty Hunter. So apparently the IRS will reward 15 to 30 percent on reported fraud. Look it up on their whistleblower site. And there’s law firms out there that will assist you in reporting. But you might asl yourself “do I really want to be that douchebag?” My answer is absolutely! Just start following the new 100k pickups.

      1. good business opportunity here

        @GRomePow was tweeting about partnering with a law firm to do just that, but with recent Twitter changes I have no idea how far along he is. I refuse to create an account.

  18. CNBC — 61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets (8/31/2023):

    “As of July, 61% of adults still said they are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new LendingClub report, slightly more than last year’s 59%.

    Yet, recent releases show that, at least compared with the soaring inflation of a year ago, consumers who have been squeezed by higher prices should be experiencing some relief. June and July both saw easing in the pace of price increases, with core inflation up 0.2% for each month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

    Relief? The government is lying to you.

    “Lower-income workers have been the hardest hit by higher prices, particularly for food and other necessities, since those expenses account for a bigger share of the budget, studies show.

    Some 70% of Americans admit to being stressed about finances, according to a separate CNBC Your Money Financial Confidence Survey conducted in March, largely due to inflation, rising interest rates and a lack of savings.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/31/living-paycheck-to-paycheck-inflation-is-still-squeezing-budgets.html

    Printing money for phony viruses has consequences.

    70% that’s almost some “we’re all in this together” kind of numbers right there. Exempting of course, the already rich who got even richer because of CCP Flu.

    1. and a lack of savings

      All the stimmie checks were spent on cars (now being repo’d) ubereats and weed.

  19. Is real estate investing still the guaranteed road to riches that it was during the pandemic?

    1. Housing is so unattractive that investor purchases have plummeted 45%
      Phil Rosen
      Aug 30, 2023, 7:41 AM PDT
      home construction
      Reuters/Rick Wilking

      – Real estate investors bought 45% fewer homes in the second quarter than a year ago, Redfin reported.

      – That outpaced the 31% overall dip in home sales, and was the biggest drop since 2008, excluding the first quarter.

      – Investor purchases have fallen annually for four consecutive quarters.

      The US housing market isn’t affordable or attractive to most Americans — and that includes real estate investors.

      Redfin reported Wednesday that investor purchases of homes dropped 45% in the second quarter compared to the same time last year. Excluding the first quarter, when the annual decline was 48%, that’s the steepest plunge since 2008.

      And the second-quarter decline in investor purchases outpaced the 31% drop in overall home sales. It also marked the fourth consecutive quarter of annual declines.

      Redfin said relatively cool housing and rental markets have made investing in homes less attractive.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/housing-market-outlook-investor-home-purchases-2008-prices-hedge-funds-2023-8

  20. German Push To ABANDON EU Rules
    Michael Heaver
    Aug 30, 2023

    “Green policies pushing Germany into recession, opposition warns…In another break with Merkel, he has taken a harder line on migration, calling for border controls, breaching the EU’s passport-free travel policy and the fast-track deportations of migrants to Moldova, Georgia, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria.” The Times

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXwWFBZqaBA

    2:45. They are doing this because the AfD is about to throw them out.

  21. The number of price-capped products in French supermarkets will double to 5,000, finance minister Bruno Le Maire said Thursday, as data revealed another month of double-digit food inflation.

    Price controls? How do you say “bare shelves” in French?

  22. The only one I trust is my dentist I’ve been seeing for over a decade.

    Ditto here. Dentistry seems to me to be one of the few areas of medicine where they’re consistent in what they tell you and not always backtracking and contradicting themselves. Some of these other medical specialties, you have to wonder if they have *any* clue what they’re doing.

    Cleaning people’s teeth, fillings, crowns, impants, etc, working over patients’ open mouths and noses all day and guess what, the dentists and hygeinists aren’t all dead yet. Imagine that.

    Amazing, right? It’s almost like we’ve evolved to be able to be around other people and be OK with that.

  23. Another Dumver Doom Loop story:

    Longtime Italian bistro closes in Denver. “It just was not fun anymore owning a restaurant,” owner said

    Nonna’s served classic Italian dishes like the spaghetti in this file photo. (Getty Images)

    It’s the end of the line for Nonna’s Chicago Bistro. The Northern Italian restaurant’s lease ended at the end of July and permanently closed its doors.

    Nonna’s Chicago Bistro, located at 6603 Leetsdale Dr. in the Washington Virginia Vale neighborhood, first opened in 2004. Owner Brian Svenby echoed what other restaurateurs have said while closing, that rent, food prices, labor shortage and homeless in the area made “not fun anymore.”

    Not fun anymore? More like “We’ve been bleeding cash. Thank goodness the lease ended. We’re outta here!”

  24. It can’t be denied that the Baby Boomers were given much more opportunity to build wealth,stable job opportunity, affordable real estate, etc.
    The younger generations were looted by transfer of jobs to foreign Countries, wages not keeping up , unaffordable real estate, massive debt.
    They are pissed no doubt, but they have been brainwashed not to blame government or the 1% for this wealth transfer. They are open to Communism ideology, and every conceivable false ideology to solve the lack of a economic system that was highjacked by the 1%.
    They have a Medical/Pharmacy system looting them dry also.
    They have a impossible system to work with in terms of the ” American Dream” .
    So, not surprising that they are open to the false narratives of the masters of the Universe.
    Saw a documentary called Dimming, which exposes the geo engineering of climate being done, and how poisonous to environment that is.
    Something has to give because insanity isn’t very liveable.

    1. Actually, those are government provided textbooks for elementary schools. I’ve been reading about the pushback against the new textbooks in the Mexican media. Private schools have flat out rejected them and nationwide a super majority of parents are saying “h#ll no” and as we see in the video are even destroying them.

      1. The Mexican President has come to the textbooks’ defense and says they will not be removed or replaced. This could get interesting.

    1. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend
      By Alicia Wallace, CNN
      Updated 11:58 AM EDT, Thu August 31, 2023
      U.S. Fed chair ready to hike interest rates
      03:24 – Source: CNN
      Minneapolis CNN —

      US inflation may have remained elevated in July, but consumers just wanted to have some fun.

      New Commerce Department data released Thursday showed that consumer spending jumped 0.8% last month as shoppers shelled out for restaurants, live shows, toys, games and recreational equipment. It’s the strongest monthly spending gain since January; however, underlying data indicates this type of activity may be on borrowed time.

      The Personal Income and Outlays report for July also showed that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge remained high but grew at a monthly rate that’s more in line with the central bank’s 2% target.

      The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed that prices increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.3% annually.

      When stripping out the more volatile energy and food prices, the core PCE index showed prices increased 0.2% from the month before and 4.2% for the 12 months ended in July.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/31/economy/pce-inflation-july/index.html

      1. America’s addiction to consumption is worse than the most powerful drug out there. Just like the addict who looks in the mirror and knows death can’t be that far around the corner, still they just can’t stop until they’re toast. We’re at toast.

  30. ‘What’s important is that regardless of our stories, backgrounds, ethnicity, age or level of education we all find ourselves in the same situation. And we all are helpless’

    Yer all in this together Lucy.

  31. ‘Investors are pulling back quickly from the Sun Belt and Florida largely because those places had an even bigger boom in homebuying demand than the rest of the country in 2021 and early 2022, and now they’re cooling fast’

    ‘Investors are pulling back quickly…largely because those places had an even bigger boom’

    I think that another way of saying they’re bag holders.

  32. ‘They say, ‘I thought my biggest investment would have some kind of return’

    Ennio Morricone – L’estasi dell’Oro (In Concerto – Venezia 10.11.07)
    SelfDistribuzione
    Dec 20, 2011
    Song taken from “The Good, the Bad, the Ugly”, performed in the magical setting of San Marco’s square in Venice and directed by Ennio Morricone himself.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3IlqY1CbI0

    4 minutes.

  36. Some more Dumver Doom Loop stories.

    For the first seven months of 2023, thieves stole 378 vehicles from airport lots, DIA said. Other, busier airports had far fewer.

    https://www.9news.com/article/travel/denver-international-airport/dia-strategies-fight-car-thefts/73-c81a57d5-f95f-422e-9c9f-1c05890474c1

    More than 1,100 catalytic converters stolen this year from DIA and area lots in huge increase from recent years

    That’s over 5 a day.

    https://www.9news.com/article/news/crime/catalytic-converter-thefts-denver-international-airport/73-7badf293-bf17-4118-b84e-66ceaf87dd47

    Also absent from these stories: any anecdotes of thieves getting busted and caught in the act. Meaning that for all practical purposes there is no security and thieves have the run of the place.

  37. How can American house prices still be rising?

    Here’s a theory:

    1) They aren’t.

    2) The data suggesting otherwise is unrepresentative and out of date.

    The latter is because current indexes are representative of past sales transactions, conditions and market values, rather than the present situation with a 30-year mortgage creeping up towards 8%.

    The former is due to the historically small volume of existing homes currently changing hands; these are going primarily to high networth owner occupant households who are unconstrained and undeterred by high mortgage rates, or to investors using other people’s money, who haven’t yet recognized they are buying at the crest of a peaking wave.

    You can’t observe the market value of the atypically large share of homes off the market without a normal volume of sales transactions to foster price discovery, which we currently lack.

    1. Yahoo
      The Economist
      How can American house prices still be rising?
      Wed, August 30, 2023 at 12:11 PM PDT·6 min read
      LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 30: A ‘For Sale’ sign is displayed in front of a home on August 30, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. According to data from the California Association of Realtors, housing affordability dropped to a 16-year low in California in the second quarter of this year amid high-interest rates. According to the figures, just 16 percent of people in the state are able to afford to purchase an existing median-priced single-family home.
      (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

      Homeownership regularly nears the top of surveys about what Americans most want in life. Alas, this part of the American dream has rarely been harder to attain. Those looking to enter the property market face a triple whammy of high prices, costly mortgages and limited choice. Together these factors have conspired to make housing deeply unaffordable, with little sign of relief on the horizon.

      Yet in a roundabout way, the property crunch also helps explain one of the most pressing economic conundrums of the day: why American growth has remained robust, defying predictions of a recession.

      Housing is usually one of the sectors most sensitive to interest rates, but things have not been quite so straightforward in America. As the Federal Reserve turned hawkish over the past two years, mortgage rates soared, ascending from less than 3% to more than 7%. For the median family buying the median home, mortgage payments doubled from roughly 14% of monthly household income in 2020 to nearly 29% in June, the highest since 1985, according to the National Association of Realtors.

      Surprisingly, this jump in mortgage rates has not led to a decline in house prices. They fell briefly as rates began to rise but have since rebounded to the record highs hit early last year after covid-era stimulus boosted the economy. Figures on August 29th showed that this rebound may be gaining strength: house prices in the second quarter of this year rose at an annualised pace of 15%, according to the s&p Case-Shiller index, a benchmark for American property prices.

      What explains this impressive resilience? For something the size of America’s property market—where annual sales are worth about $2trn, scattered across a continent-sized economy, in which some regions are flourishing and others contracting—there is inevitably a nuanced answer. However, a good summary came in late August from Douglas Yearley, chief executive of Toll Brothers, one of America’s biggest homebuilders, during an earnings call. “There are still buyers out there. They have very few options,” he explained.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-house-prices-still-rising-191124922.html

      1. ‘Investors are pulling back quickly…largely because those places had an even bigger boom’

        Possible future Economist article headline?

      1. Financial Times
        Prime property
        Cash buyers wield a new level of power in the property market
        The ability to pay upfront earns preference and price cuts, while those with mortgages go to the back of the queue
        Hugo Cox
        2 hours ago
        Illustration of a large wad of cash being pushed towards a house on a trolley while a queue of viewers looks on

        A few miles inland from Cannes, on the French Riviera, the hilltop town of Mougins has become a popular spot for affluent Parisians and those from abroad seeking a home in which to enjoy the summer holiday season. But buying agent Tim Swannie recently negotiated €300,000 off the €2.9mn sale price of a home in the village on behalf of a client who was buying with cash.

        The seller had rejected a mortgaged offer of €2.8mn a few weeks earlier but had received no further offers, despite advertising the home extensively, and was getting worried, says Swannie. “By now, the home had been on the market for nearly five months, during which mortgage rates had increased: our client had cash and was keen to complete as soon as possible.”

        Without the delays and uncertainties associated with securing a mortgage, cash has long conferred an advantage to homebuyers across the world. But with today’s high mortgage rates increasing the chances a mortgage application will be rejected or that a prospective buyer will decide they can’t afford the monthly payments, cash has a new level of power.

        In Manhattan, the number of cash purchases as a proportion of all transactions has set a new record in each of the last three quarters, and now stands at 65 per cent, according to estate agent Douglas Elliman. In France, mortgaged buyers have left the market in large numbers: the €1.05bn of new mortgages granted in June is less than a sixth of the €6.76bn of a year earlier, according to Banque de France. In the UK, property portal Zoopla predicts mortgage-backed sales will fall 28 per cent this year, with cash sales falling just 1 per cent.

        “If we had a mortgage or a property to sell, we wouldn’t be at the table; instead, we are in front of the queue,” says UK buying agent Henry Pryor, whose client has just had their cash offer — £25,000 off the £650,000 asking price — accepted on a three-bedroom maisonette in west London, beating a higher rival offer from someone with a mortgage.
        …

        1. “The seller had rejected a mortgaged offer of €2.8mn a few weeks earlier but had received no further offers, despite advertising the home extensively, and was getting worried, …”

          Sell today, or look forward to selling for €100,000s less a few weeks later.

        2. “The ability to pay upfront earns preference and price cuts, while those with mortgages go to the back of the queue”

          …aka money talks, bullschitt walks!

  38. Does it concern you to know that US stocks dropped for the month of August, even as core inflation is still running hot (4%+)?

    Will the Fed have to choose between credibly maintaining its 2% inflation target, or saving Wall Street’s bacon?
    If so, I know which way I would bet (hint: it’s been a while since Alan Greenspan left office).

    1. Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Markets
      US stocks endure first monthly drop since February
      Dollar rises and euro drops as traders bet on steady interest rates
      A montage of a globe and a chart going up
      The S&P 500 fell 1.8% in August
      Daria Mosolova in London and Nicholas Megaw in New York
      6 hours ago

      US stocks were mixed on Thursday, but notched their first monthly drop since February despite solid economic data feeding hopes that the Federal Reserve will probably refrain from raising interest rates again this year.

      Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 gave up its earlier gains to close 0.2 per cent lower, bringing its loss for the month to 1.8 per cent.

      The Nasdaq Composite, which is dominated by fast-growing tech stocks that are particularly vulnerable to higher interest rates, added 0.1 per cent. However, it was the index’s worst month since December.

      Government bond prices also rose slightly. The yield on the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury dipped 0.03 percentage points to 4.86 per cent. Yields fall when prices rise.

      Thursday’s market moves followed the release in the morning of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s personal consumption expenditure report, which showed measures of inflation ticked up as expected in July and that consumers increased their spending.

      The “core” PCE index — an inflation gauge closely watched by economists and policymakers that strips out volatile items — rose slightly in July to an annualised rate of 4.2 per cent, up from an almost two-year low in June.
      …

      2. If you believe what MSM financial writers publish, most of the real estate industry is counting on rates to drop back to early 2022 levels any day now.

        Centuries of interest rate history say this ain’t gonna happen.

Comments are closed.