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It’s Basically Ruined Us Financially

A report from Fortune. “The average San Francisco home value is down 11.5% over the past year, and 13.2% from its peak, according to Zillow. For homeowners looking to sell, that spells trouble. San Francisco home sellers are four times as likely as the average U.S. seller to take a loss, according to Redfin. Not to mention that the typical San Francisco homeowner who took a loss sold their home for $100,000 less than what they bought it for. Meanwhile, nationwide, the typical homeowner who took a loss on their home, sold it for $35,538 less. A separate Redfin analysis found that the total value of homes in San Francisco fell by nearly $60 billion since last summer. ‘Some condos in the Bay Area are now worth less than their owners bought them for in 2018 and 2019, in part because commuting from Oakland and other outlying areas into downtown San Francisco isn’t really a thing anymore,’ said local Redfin real estate agent, Andrea Chopp.”

“As for other markets, Detroit followed behind San Francisco, with 6.9% of homes sold during the three months ended July 31, purchased for less than what the seller bought it for. Then there’s Chicago, with 6.5% of homes sold for less than what the seller bought it for, during that same period, followed by New York City, where 5.9% of homes sold for less than what the seller bought it for. But in dollar terms, New York’s median loss is tied with San Francisco at $100,000.”

From DS News. “In Boise, ID, Redfin Premier agent Shauna Pendleton has clients who will likely have to take a $100,000 loss on their home because they’re selling it after only about a year. They’re moving back to Seattle because their employer is requiring them to return to the office. Pendleton noted that it’s not common for homeowners to sell at a loss in Boise, but when it does happen, it often involves homes selling for upwards of $750,000.”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “‘The majority of sellers found themselves negotiating to get their homes under contract,’ said Nicole Rueth, a DMAR Market Trends Committee member. Libby Levinson-Katz, chairwoman of the DMAR Market Trends Committee, in her comments, recounted a listing agent on a townhome who was frustrated to hear from several buyer agents that an offer was coming, only to be told later the buyer was holding off because of higher rates. That didn’t happen once or twice, but five separate times. ‘The important message is that sellers are eager for qualified buyers to make an offer,’ she said.”

The Virginian Pilot. “Demand for mortgages in Hampton Roads has dropped significantly this year, lenders say. Tidewater Mortgage Services is doing everything in its power to keep its sales force intact, said said Jim Belote, vice president of sales and senior loan officer. Its team, including loan officers and operations staff, totals just under 200. ‘So, we’re taking price concessions on interest rates,’ he said. ‘We’re slashing probably a third of the revenue off a mortgage that we would normally get just to help our loan officers win deals because it’s super competitive now.’ Gordon Davis said he and his wife listed their four-bedroom, 3.5-bath, 4,200-square-foot family home of 27 years in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, in March for $975,000, but pulled it off the market after very little traffic. Unsure what direction the market will go in, Davis said they will wait until March and try again.”

Hawaiian Business. “The average mortgage rate is the highest it’s been in more than 20 years, and while that’s slowed home sales, refinance loans in urban Honolulu have fallen off a cliff. That’s being felt by everyone in the mortgage industry across Hawaiʻi. The number of home loans originated statewide by all lenders through the first seven months of this year was about half that of last year, but the dollar volume was down by 66%, according to the Title Guaranty Hawaii mortgage barometer.”

“‘I’ve been in this business 31 years and it’s the worst market I’ve ever seen,’ says Jon Whittington, managing director of Hawaiʻi Mortgage Group LLC. “The biggest issue is people are locked into their houses. There’s no inventory. We’ve got dozens of preapproved buyers; we’re just trying to get home offers accepted,’ he says. ‘And it’s just not happening.'”

From CBC News in Canada. “The saga of alleged financial fraudster Greg Martel took another turn Thursday when Martel was put into personal bankruptcy during a hearing in B.C. Supreme Court in Victoria. The bankruptcy will help smooth the way for the receiver in the case, PricewaterhouseCoopers, to recover assets owned by Martel in order to pay back some of the money lost by jilted investors. The main targets are a mansion in Las Vegas, a house in Langford near Victoria, and an Ontario cabin he co-owns with a former spouse which combined could recoup around $4 million dollars, a small fraction of the almost quarter of a billion he owes.”

“Meanwhile, an application will be brought later this month to have Martel declared in contempt of court which could land him in jail, assuming he can be located in Canada. Martel is the disgraced Victoria mortgage broker who owes 1,200 investors an estimated $226 million through his company Shop Your Own Mortgage (SYOM), also known as My Mortgage Auction Corp, of which he is the sole director. SYOM was supposedly in the business of pooling investor money to provide short term bridge loans to real estate developers. Investors were drawn in with promises of sky high rates of return, sometimes as much as 100 per cent interest on an annualized basis. But things started to go south earlier this year when some investors started complaining that their pay outs were taking longer and longer to materialize. Eventually the company ceased paying out investors entirely.”

“To date PwC has found no evidence the bridge loans Martel was selling ever existed, leading some to speculate he was running a Ponzi scheme. In an email to CBC, Martel denied the accusation.”

From City AM. “New figures from Halifax show roaring mortgage rates have continue to pile on the misery for the UK’s housing sector. During the month, London homes saw the most dramatic fall in price of any region in cash terms, tumbling 4.1 per cent to £529k as sellers slashed the value of their pads in order to sell. Kim Kinnaird, director, Halifax Mortgages, said: ‘The market will continue to rebalance until it finds an equilibrium where buyers are comfortable with mortgage costs in a higher range than seen over the previous 15 years.'”

News.com.au in Australia. “When Queensland couple Valerie and Stephen Kenner learned earlier this year that their builder had gone bust, they were concerned but not distraught. With insurance on their nearly-completed building site, they were hopeful that they would be adequately covered and wouldn’t be left too much out of pocket. Late last month, after much anticipation, Mr and Ms Kenner, 51 and 43 respectively, received an email from the QBCC, which handles the state’s last resort insurance scheme. In a promising start, the email’s subject line was ‘Claim Approval Letter.’ But when Ms Kenner clicked on it, she saw a big fat zero for her claim. ‘Total approved claim: $0.0,’ it read. ‘It’s ‘basically ruined us financially,’ Ms Kenner, a mother-of-seven, told news.com.au.”

Stuff New Zealand. “Award-winning New Plymouth building firm Custom Construction has been placed into liquidation potentially casting a shadow over a number of other Taranaki businesses owned by its directors. The announcement of the liquidation comes at a time when a section of the construction industry was really struggling, Location Homes owner and mental health advocate Campbell Mattson said. Mattson, who is a former president of the Master Builders Association Taranaki, could not comment on what had happened with Custom Construction, but warned of growing concerns for some in the industry. ‘Let’s not pretend, it’s tough,’ he said. ‘A lot of people who were busy at the start of the year are now looking for work.'”

Channel News Asia. “The financial woes of China’s largest property developers are rippling through the country’s economy, as lawsuits pile up with businesses and workers owed hundreds of billions in payment. China’s ongoing property crisis was triggered by the government’s attempt to reform and de-leverage the sector to prevent a housing bubble. Real estate forms the backbone of the country’s economy, contributing about 30 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), with some 80 per cent of residents’ wealth locked in the sector. Mr Chen Zhi Xiong had founded his own advertising and events planning company in 2019, and was approached by Evergrande for a business collaboration just a year later. The 35-year-old worked with the real estate giant on four projects for three months from October to December 2020, providing billboards, publicity materials, and running promotional events for the firm.”

“‘When I asked for payment, the company gave various excuses, saying it takes time to go through the due process (or) that they had no money,’ Mr Chen told CNA, adding that payment was delayed for about a year. He later filed a lawsuit, sending the company contract breach letters, notifications and payment reminders, according to court documents seen by CNA. Mr Chen used up his own funds for the unpaid projects amounting to US$100,000, and resorted to borrowing from various sources to balance his cash flow and pay suppliers and employees.”

“When Evergrande defaulted on payment, he too was unable to repay his own debt, and was forced to sell his family home and move to a rented apartment half the size of his original place. He also had to downsize his firm by half. When he went down to the Evergrande office physically to demand payment, he ended up being arrested by the police.”

“A former Evergrande employee told CNA that before the firm went into crisis, it had an internal policy for all staff, regardless of whether they were top, middle or entry-level executives. ‘Employees may be required to buy an apartment from the company, or you have to recommend 50 clients to view a property. Essentially, it is an internal marketing campaign,’ said the 27-year-old. The ex-employee bought an apartment from Evergrande, putting in a 20 per cent down payment and taking up a 30-year mortgage. He is currently still servicing his loan at a 5 per cent interest rate, which takes up a third of his monthly salary, even though the apartment he bought has already lost a fifth of its value.”

“‘At that time the company couldn’t pay salaries and began to owe about three months of my salary,’ he told CNA. He added that Evergrande also had a wealth management product, which employees were required to deposit money into. ‘For example, grassroots employees were required to deposit US$13,780, while middle and senior management executives may need to deposit more. The money can be redeemed after a year, but many employees around us were unable to withdraw it at all after one year was up. There was no money,’ he said.”

“While government policy has accelerated the contraction of the sector, China’s housing market is also undergoing a long-term transition, according to experts. The country can no longer rely on real estate to fuel growth, as its declining birth rate means that it no longer needs so many houses. ‘China’s fertility rate is at an all-time low. Now it is about 1.3, even lower than Japan, and the ageing is starting to accelerate,’ said Hang Seng Bank chief economist Wang Dan. ‘China used to focus on the construction of new housing. But now that part is basically over. We have to focus more on the service in the real estate sector.'”

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This Post Has 128 Comments

    1. Washington Post — A few schools mandated masks. Conservatives hit back hard (9/6/2023):

      “Even though these campuses are the exception, as few schools require masks, lawmakers and presidential candidates have seized on the issue. A group of Senate Republicans unveiled legislation this week to prohibit federal mask mandates on domestic air travel, public transit and public schools through the end of 2024. On Wednesday, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) shared a warning in response to the Maryland elementary school action: “If you want to voluntarily wear a mask, fine, but leave our kids the hell alone.” (The school, Rosemary Hills in Silver Spring, boosted security and kept recess indoors because of online backlash the same day.)

      Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, who is seeking the Republican presidential nomination, suggested in a Fox News interview Wednesday that mandated school mask-wearing is an attack on parental rights, and former president Donald Trump promised last month that, if reelected, he would “use every available authority to cut federal funding to any school” that imposed a mask rule.

      While there’s no consensus among public health experts about school mask requirements, proponents say they make sense in the early phases of covid upticks to prevent a bump in cases from turning into a surge. They argue that, even though the virus has become less deadly, older adults and immunocompromised people are still at risk of severe illness and death, and people of different ages and medical histories could develop debilitating long-covid symptoms.”

      https://archive.ph/DXgOP

      Do not comply. Not now, not ever. None of this has anything to do with public health, masks are nothing more than a humiliation ritual.

      Citizens don’t wear masks. Slaves wear masks.

      1. CNBC piles on with the fear porn:

        “Covid hospitalizations are increasing substantially across much of the U.S. for the first time this year, just as students are returning to school and shortly before updated shots arrive at pharmacies for a fall vaccination campaign.

        New hospitalizations have jumped about 16% in the U.S. over the past week, continuing an upward trend that began in late July, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

        https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/covid-hospitalizations-spike-with-new-variant-as-us-readies-vaccines.html

        They’re not in the hospital for CCP Flu, they’re in the hospital because of the phony vaccines.

        You gave yourself A.I.D.S. the mRNA Jim Jones juice destroyed your immune system.

        1. did anyone notice when aids happened those who were in monogamous long term relationship avoided this disease?

        2. New hospitalizations have jumped about 16% in the U.S. over the past week, continuing an upward trend that began in late July, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”

          Hospitalizations always increase in the autumn and winter just like the death rate goes up in winter months. This is caused by lots of things with flu and pneumonia being major factors, but other serious diseases also increase in the colder months. Why? Who knows. But this BS about Covid-19 is just that–there are probably almost zero clinical cases putting people into hospitals right now. And you can’t alter the course of respiratory viral diseases (like the flu) with masks or anything else.

          1. you can’t alter the course of respiratory viral diseases

            Well you can sort of, by not sheltering those little school children. Just my experience over the years.

      2. What do vaccines have to do with housing?

        In 2021 the government threatened to have you FIRED FROM YOUR JOB for not getting injected with the Genocide Elixir. No job = no mortgage or rent.

        Take the Zyklon B injection, or become homeless.

        2. +1 white, bob

          These globalists’ stated goals is the extermination of billions of useless eaters.

          They built CCP Flu concentration camps in Australia, and if the World Economic Forum had its way, they’d build them here in the U.S.

  2. ‘he and his wife listed their four-bedroom, 3.5-bath, 4,200-square-foot family home of 27 years in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, in March for $975,000, but pulled it off the market after very little traffic. Unsure what direction the market will go in, Davis said they will wait until March and try again’

    Hold yer ground Gordon, don’t screw up the comps!

    1. Unsure what direction the market will go in, Davis said they will wait until March and try again’

      This is as good as it gets, Greedhead Gordon. Any hopes of a Spring Miracle Revival will be crushed as the cratering hits terminal velocity.

      1. “family home of 27 years”

        Possibly they cash-out refi’d a few times to pay for kiddo’s college. That would have reset the 30-year clock.

  3. ‘the total value of homes in San Francisco fell by nearly $60 billion since last summer. ‘Some condos in the Bay Area are now worth less than their owners bought them for in 2018 and 2019, in part because commuting from Oakland and other outlying areas into downtown San Francisco isn’t really a thing anymore’

    Nobody wants to live there Andrea.

  4. Meanwhile, nationwide, the typical homeowner who took a loss on their home, sold it for $35,538 less.

    Oh dear. This is going to make “Always Be Closing” more challenging.

    1. Some interesting sidenotes to Larry Sinclair’s tale of sex and drugs with Obama:

      According to Sinclair, Young eventually told him that he was the gay choirmaster at the Reverend Wright’s church, the one where Obama sat in the pews for 20 years as Wright blasted America. He also said that he had a long-term “intimate” relationship with Obama. Not long after that, Young was murdered in his apartment. Young’s mother believes that it was to silence him (according to Sinclair).

      Curious about this, I searched Young’s name on the internet and stumbled across an anti-Obama article from 2009. According to this article, Young was one of three gay men in Wright’s congregation who were executed within less than two months of each other. The local media suspected a gay killing rampage. However, the 2009 article suggests that they were killed because it’s possible that all three, not just Young, could have talked about Obama.

      That’s conspiracy theory stuff, but if true, it would also answer a question I’ve always asked myself: If Obama was indeed having gay sex in Chicago, how was it that only one person talked? Can that many people really keep a secret? Well, they could if those who knew were getting knocked off. Then, it’s very likely that others would discover the virtue of silence.

      1. So it’s a gay killing rampage when it doesn’t implicate BHO, but a conspiracy theory when it does. Got it!

    2. I’m not so sure about 2009, but somebody definitely flipped a switch when Occupy Wall Street happened in 2010-2011. That was really the start of the culture war.

      1. That’s when it became the ruling class and their supporters vs the deplorables. Why would anyone not in the ruling class support the ruling class? Because their income depends on the corrupt system run by the ruling class.

        1. There’s also the vast inert class of non-player characters (NPCs) aka The Sheeple, who don’t have an idea in their barren craniums that wasn’t put there by the globalist scum media.

    1. “Government Gave Millions to American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists to Promote COVID-19 Vaccines to Pregnant Women”

      That’s a really ballsy move!

    2. Yuval Harari of the World Economic Forum has openly called for the extermination of billions of useless eaters.

  7. In Rural upstate SC, our house prices are holding steady, even going up ,because they were so low to start with…..most of our buyers are out-of state ,with lots of cash….My nephew just sold his 6 year old house with 8 acres for 650k , It was an American home house ,with a basement ,which is unusual for this area , he had 3 parties , all from the West Coast, lined up for it , The first in line had a bit of trouble with his money, so the second in line snapped it up….The average existing house here goes for maybe 250K , much higher then 5 years ago ,maybe double , but the bankers are no longer as nice to deal with, and rates are much higher now…..

    1. Do you anything about these buyers? Were they trying to escape the ills of the West Coast, or trying to spread them?

  10. ‘The important message is that sellers are eager for qualified buyers to make an offer,’ she said.”

    Gosh, what happens if the pool of qualified buyers is rapidly drying up?

    1. “Qualified Buyers”

      That’s a stretch! what a laugh, “qualified buyers”!\
      probably down to the same people who clog the line in Macy’s & their never-ending-bickering with the clerk to accept a 2 year old expired coupon on a $19 tie, already marked down 50% Last Chance.

      good luck with THAT crowd, Real a Tours.

    2. I’m a buyer if prices drop to something reasonable. Another 25% drop from current might pique my interest where I’m looking. That would be almost a 50% haircut from the spring 2022 peak and back to pre-scamdemic prices

    1. That would sell for $650K in my area, if not more. Looks like it’s been nicely cleaned up, but not $150K worth of cleanup.

  12. ‘when Ms Kenner clicked on it, she saw a big fat zero for her claim. ‘Total approved claim: $0.0,’ it read. ‘It’s ‘basically ruined us financially,’ Ms Kenner, a mother-of-seven’

    Yer situation is remarkably like a fellow named Geoff, Valerie. He calls his unfinished shack site Shit Creek. Is that near yours? It’s waterfront obviously, but he doesn’t have a boat.

    1. The building company should include the cost of a performance bond in the price of their construction projects to secure their customers.

  13. A reader sent these in:

    Ontario’s Housing Minister has resigned as fears of a market collapse are growing

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1698731741924471099

    GERMAN INDUSTRIAL ORDERS MOM ACTUAL -11.7% (FORECAST -4.3%, PREVIOUS 7.0%)

    https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1699301599330369968

    Are all the people who bought new Tesla’s last year, which are now worth maybe 1/2 of the price paid… are these the same people who think we are now entering a new bull market?

    https://twitter.com/towerofhercules/status/1699216420133810390

    “The plumbing is clogged right now,” said Scott Rechler, CEO of real-estate investor RXR. “And that is going to create a backup that will eventually overflow on the commercial real-estate markets and on the banking system.”

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1699469029214413131

    Bunch of data points suggest a substantial weakening in consumer spending in August. If the consumer is actually fading, very hard for equities to hold these levels. Morgan Stanley, Chase, and Citi retail sales trackers all weakened a lot in Aug. Short thread.

    https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1699400994243674314

    LVMH has suggested luxury spending is suddenly slowing in the U.S, per CNBC.

    https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1699402316288504213

    I think we’re already seeing some impacts from the student loan restart on retail sales—spending by 25-34-year-olds tracked spending by 35-44-year-olds for much of the last year but has now fallen roughly 6% behind

    https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1699189649808224702

    Little over 1% of $ABNB annual revenue taking a hit from the short-term rental restriction excluding other states that have restrictions set in place as well, don’t understand the valuation and neither do insiders as they relentlessly continue to cash out with zero insider buys

    https://twitter.com/eliant_capital/status/1699251833179390273

    Will continue to spread as Americans demand more home inventory and affordable houses. AirBNB and the Instagram grift crowd can get bent!

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699252366321549721

    Supply continues to do its thing: For the first time in many decades, apartment rents are rapidly flattening (and could soon go negative) at the same time demand remains healthy.

    Why? Apartment construction is at 40+ year highs– shifting the balance of power to renters.

    YoY, effective asking rents for new leases (same-store) inched up just 0.28% and could turn negative by September.

    Compare 2023 to the last two times (excluding 2020 pandemic year): early 2000s and 2009. In those prior two periods, rents fell as recessions hit, jobs were lost, demand evaporated and vacancy hit 7-8%. By comparison, in 2023, vacancy has been fairly stable since January in the mid 5% range.

    Demand is solid, but operators are giving on price in order to compete and to protect occupancy / cashflow.

    That’ll likely continue through 2024 as supply peaks, before 2025-26 as supply by then will be significantly less.

    The rent slowdown won’t show up in CPI until early-ish 2024. But it’ll happen. CPI rents won’t go negative by then, but they’ll look pedestrian at that point.

    https://twitter.com/jayparsons/status/1699415072383103387

    Spoon feed’em Timmy!

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1699474599648297130

    The basics of our financial system work on the principle of a “risk-free” rate, and we are taught that it’s a must to have government bonds in your portfolio to shield yourselves from the nightmare of volatility in the “risky” equities universe.

    Nevertheless, the world’s most prominent central bankers were able to steer the biggest bond bubble of our lifetimes.

    US bond markets are witnessing a bear market of epic proportions, which could dent the returns for millions of pensioners and erode their hard-earned savings
    🚨🚨🚨

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1699490535226912963

    Someone who tried to escape Burning Man 🚨🚨🚨 🔊

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1699266880710554050

    Poor people are going to love the future of flying

    https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1536891880776126467

    Shocking news in the car market. OffLeaseOnly, a used car *conglomerate* out of Florida, is rumored to be shutting down. This is on their website right now:

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1699481980587630655

    Major player in used cars just got wiped out 🤯 the internal memo below: “Elevated pricing and rising interest rates have further deteriorated conditions in the automotive retail market, weakening consumer demand and affordability.”

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1699564519821853033

  14. ‘In Boise, ID, Redfin Premier agent Shauna Pendleton has clients who will likely have to take a $100,000 loss on their home because they’re selling it after only about a year’

    That may be Shauna, but it’s still a SELLERS MARKET!

    1. “…They’re moving back to Seattle because their employer is requiring them to return to the office.”

      I think we’re going to see a lot more of this. It seems that employers have finally figured out that w@h isn’t all or nothing. Just allow the employees to work at home 2-3 days/wk. It’s enough w@h that employees can be oh-so-effective, but not the full-time remote work which would allow employees to relocate to Boise.

      1. Given the economy, I’d wager it’s a stealth reduction in force. Employees self-select. No WARN notices. No severance packages.

        1. Probably true for some industries. I think a lot of them are doing what Elon (I know, I know) did: sat down and asked, do we really need all these employees. If you yank the w@h, any good employees you lose will be more than made up for by the deadweight that tosses itself overboard.

  15. With mortgage purchase applications back to 1996 levels, has the bubble popped?

    And who is buying now?

    1. Real Estate
      Mortgage demand drops to 27-year low as interest rates pull back
      Published Wed, Sep 6 2023 7:00 AM EDT
      Updated Wed, Sep 6 2023 7:37 AM EDT
      Diana Olick

      Key Points

      – The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 7.21% from 7.31%

      – Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 2% for the week and were 28% lower than the same week one year ago.

      After rising sharply for several weeks, mortgage interest rates pulled back slightly last week, but not enough to revive mortgage demand.

      Total mortgage application volume fell 2.9% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

      The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 7.21% from 7.31%, with points falling to 0.69 from 0.73 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.

      “Mortgage applications declined to the lowest level since December 1996, despite a drop in mortgage rates,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Rates remained more than a full percentage point higher than a year ago, despite mixed data on the health of the economy and signs of a cooling job market.”
      …

    1. another in an endless parade of shaved-head rage-roided larger-than-average meatheads who have always relied on their sheer size to intimidate.

      looks like he fuked around & found out.
      the hard way.

    2. Don’t know who was at fault, but it was probably something stupid. Don’t go attacking people no matter what. They could have a gun or knife.

    3. He gambled and lost. Worse, he looked like a little sissy at the very end, twirling like a gay dancer as his life ended.

    2. Yahoo
      Reuters
      TREASURIES-U.S. yields higher after data, Waller comments
      Chuck Mikolajczak
      Tue, September 5, 2023 at 12:06 PM PDT·2 min read
      In this article:
      (Updated at 2:52 p.m. ET/1852 GMT)
      By Chuck Mikolajczak

      NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury yields gained ground on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year note hitting its highest level in over a week after better-than-expected economic data while comments from a Federal Reserve official indicated the central bank could hold interest rates high for an extended period.

      Economic data showed orders for U.S. factory goods declined in July by 2.1%, reversing a rise in the prior month, but less than the 2.5% decline expected by economists polled by Reuters. The data comes after Friday’s employment report suggested the labor market was easing and a separate report pointed to a stabilization in the manufacturing sector.

      Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the latest round of economic data was giving the U.S. central bank space to see if it needs to raise interest rates again, while noting that he currently sees nothing that would force a move toward boosting the cost of short-term borrowing again. However, Waller cautioned that market participants should not assume the central bank is finished with its rate-hike cycle.

      “We kind of ran into this on Friday with the economic data coming in somewhat soft of the labor market side and then the manufacturing data kind of going in the other direction,” said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

      “The yields going up was a little too pronounced, a little bit of a reversal kind of makes sense but the extent that they went higher kind of had you scratching your head.”

      The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note on Tuesday rose 9 basis points to 4.26% after reaching 4.268%, its highest level since August 25.

      The yield on the 30-year bond also rose 9 basis points to 4.373%.

      Barnes also said the expected influx of corporate supply that usually comes after the Labor Day holiday was leading to trader positioning and likely putting upward pressure on Treasury yields.

      A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a negative 70.4 basis points.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasuries-u-yields-higher-data-190657829.html

    3. Updated Thu, Sep 7 2023 11:45 AM EDT
      Nasdaq falls for a fourth straight day as Wall Street frets over potential of higher interest rates: Live updates
      Samantha Subin
      Brian Evans
      BNY Mellon’s Jolly: Tactically, it’s still a very challenging market

      The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite
      fell Thursday as concerns resurfaced over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy path, and whether policymakers will enact another hike this year.

      The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell for a fourth day, losing 1%, while the broad-based S&P slid 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 67 points, or 0.2%.

      Apple shares dropped 3% on a Bloomberg News report that China’s looking to broaden a ban on the use of iPhones in state-owned companies and agencies. Technology and semiconductor stocks lagged, with Tesla, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices last down more than 2% each.

      A series of economic data points Thursday — including fewer-than-expected jobless claims — contributed to fears that the still strong labor market may make the Federal Reserve think twice about relaxing its tight monetary policy stance. Weekly jobless claims came in at 216,000, versus the 230,000 expected by Dow Jones, while second-quarter labor costs rose more than anticipated.

      Combined with the recent uptick in energy prices, a stronger jobs market will boost the need for the Fed to act, said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.

      “People were hoping the Fed would be on hold for the rest of the year, but it’s possible that we got one or two more rate hikes to come,” he said. “All things being equal, that’s a little bit of a negative for the stock market, which was expecting the Fed to potentially be done for the year.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/stock-futures-are-little-changed-wall-street-shifts-focus-back-to-path-of-interest-rates.html

    5. Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Markets
      US Treasuries and stocks fall after robust services sector data
      Oil prices reach 10-month high after big producers agree to extend supply cuts
      An oil rig
      Jaren Kerr in New York and Daria Mosolova in London yesterday

      US Treasuries sold off on Wednesday, taking stocks along with them, after data showing unexpected strength in the country’s vast services sector supported the thesis that a “soft landing” for the domestic economy could mean interest rates remain elevated for an extended period.

      Investors were also assessing the potential inflationary effect on the global economy of oil prices reaching their highest level in 10 months after big producers agreed to extend supply cuts.

      The yield on the policy-sensitive two-year US Treasury was up 0.06 percentage points to 5.02 per cent, while the yield on the 10-year note climbed 0.03 percentage points to 4.3 per cent.

      Yields, which rise as bond prices fall, jumped in the morning after the Institute for Supply Management reported that its US services sector purchasing managers’ index rose to a six-month high of 54.5 in August. That was above analysts’ forecasts, which anticipated a slight decline.

      The data suggests that consumer demand, one of the main drivers of the US economy, has remained resilient as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly increased interest rates. The vast services sector has expanded in 38 of the past 39 months, while the US manufacturing sector has contracted for 10 successive months.

      “It may well be that the summer entertainment boon has been a big factor with concerts and cinemas pulling in record revenues and ancillary businesses feeling the benefits too,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said of the ISM report.

      Recent data showing a slowdown in some parts of the US economy and resilience in others has buoyed investor hopes of a “Goldilocks” scenario in which the Fed might succeed in taming inflation without triggering a recession. That could mean, however, that interest rates stay higher for longer and growth could still slow.

      “The fastest pace of rate hikes in a generation has yet to fully quell activity in the service sector,” Wells Fargo analysts wrote on Wednesday, while noting that consumers could tighten their belts in the near future.

      “Pandemic-era savings are running out, credit card rates are north of 20 per cent and the job market is no longer white-hot as it was earlier this year.”
      …

      1. I remember 2008 when commodities spiked up right before everything collapsed. I don’t think we’re there yet. We’ll get a huge spike in oil and everyone on TV will be screaming about $200-300 oil then comes the rug pull and everything goes down like a house of cards.

  18. China coal power spree continues at frantic pace with 300+ plants in pipeline despite 2030 carbon pledge, research says

    The country approved permits for 52 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity in the first half of 2023, maintaining the previous pace of approving two plants per week, according to a report published by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) on Tuesday. China also doubled its commissioning of coal plants year on year, plugging 17.1GW into the grid in the first half of the year, according to the report.

    Moreover, the report said, most new coal projects are in locations where there is no need for new coal capacity to support grid stability or the integration of variable sources of renewable power like solar and wind – reasons Beijing has cited for its continuing build-up of coal capacity.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-coal-power-spree-continues-at-frantic-pace-with-300plus-plants-in-pipeline-despite-2030-carbon-pledge-research-says/ar-AA1fUD15

    ‘approving two plants per week’

    But you better get rid of yer gas stove!

    1. “2030 carbon pledge”

      Don’t those only apply to western nations with majority (not for much longer) white populations?

      It’s a World Economic Forum kind of thing, you grubby peasants wouldn’t understand.

  20. – House prices are high due to Fed’s “wealth effect” since 2010 and in the extreme during the CCP flu pandemic. They manipulated rates lower via MBS purchase and other types of financial repression and drove rates to historic lows. Rates down, prices up.

    – Many locked in at ultra-low rates, effectively removing inventory from the market. Add AirBnBs and other investor purchases driving inventory even lower.

    – Current prices still reflecting the ultra-low rates. Prices too high. Now add historically high rates and housing is the most unaffordable ever for traditional shelter buyers.

    – Builders incentives and outright price cuts on new houses now undercutting used houses, but used/existing much larger market.

    – None of this is of course sustainable. Price correction underway. Then add a stonk market crash + deep recession and we’ll see additional decline in prices. The bursting of The Everything/Central Bank Bubble will be epic in my view. Right now it’s “catch a falling knife” mode. Probably another 3-5 years before some sort of bottom is in housing.

    – Government, including the Fed royally screwed up the economy. Now the bubble is bursting as liquidity is slowly withdrawn (inflation). Unemployment should start rising from here. The last domino to fall (lagging indicator). Soft/no landing? Best of luck.

    1. The Fed was still buying MBS’s hand over fist when 30 yr fixed mortgage rates were under 3% and home prices were skyrocketing. Either they did this on purpose or it was sheer stupidity. Either way, they need to be hanged.

  21. Outrage over alleged Bay Area townhome strip club
    ABC7 News Bay Area
    Sep 1, 2023
    Snapchat video shows exotic dancers, alcohol and stacks of ones. Neighbors say someone is running a strip club out of a San Jose townhome; the host denies it and says they are just private parties.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWRNe9BxRQo

    7:18.

  22. ‘recounted a listing agent on a townhome who was frustrated to hear from several buyer agents that an offer was coming, only to be told later the buyer was holding off because of higher rates. That didn’t happen once or twice, but five separate times’

    That’s the spirit buyers, make them squirm!

    1. I recently talked to a couple who said they were trying to sell their 2 year old RV, purchased during the pandemic frenzy. They said they only had a couple people even contact them, and both said after checking interest rates that the payment was way too high.

  23. Bottom line is members of the WEF, the United Nations , World Banks, Rich Elites , are in collusion with World Governments to take over the World.
    Come on, Banks controlling your money and consumption. UN 2030 sustainable earth agenda being forced. Klaus Schwabs One World Order/Great Reset agenda of “Stakeholder Governance” which are fancy words for Private Parties fat cats and Corporations partnering with governments to rule over the World.
    Private Party Corporations control of free speech and censorship of dispute to their fraudulent narratives.
    AI and Robots taking 40 to 50 % of the jobs within 10 years, while Klaus Schwab said who controls the technology controls the World.
    UN 2030 sustainable earth agenda, that would be a radical change for humans, their freedoms, consumption and choices.
    You will eat bugs, own nothing, live in 15 minute cities, be hacked, if you even survive mandated poison vaccines.
    This One World Order/Great Reset , UN takeover by Entities that corrupted, bought off and inflitrated major World Governments was pre-planned . They aren’t going to stop this war that was launched on human populations .
    And Goverment isn’t stopping this One World Order takeover, because Government is in collusion with it. Biden said “US should lead in the One World Order”, as he signs over unprecedented powers to the World Heath Organization, to supersede Constitutional protections for US Citizens.
    This is one big scheme, using contrived emergencies to create a One World Order take over.
    At this point, only option is for targeted humanity to not comply, or rebel if necessary.
    They aren’t going to stop, and they have a timeline for their One World Order takeover. The Trump election made them come unglued because it was a delay to their insurrection and power grab.
    Do you think Monopoly Corporations, Banks, guys like Bill Gates, and a unelected and Corrupt UN should rule the World in partnership with governments, its as simple as that. That there will be no choice by billions of people as to their life for this World dictorship.

    What does this have to do with real estate?
    The end game goal of the One World Order is they will own or control all resources and private property, you will eat bugs, mandated vaccines, Banks control consumption, no freedoms, etc.
    They can’t have a world were the humans have any rights, property rights, or any power whatsoever or choice. They tell you what their end game is. And they justify their power grab by saying they are saving the earth , and they promote world equity, etc etc.
    Unbelievable power grab by evil, deranged, fraudster psychopaths, who are into depopulation and homicide and their vision of a ideal world for them.

  25. The Bipolar US Economy

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bipolar-us-economy

    By Howard Wang of Convoy Investments

    The US economy is as bipolar as I’ve ever seen it, with some parts cold and other parts running hot. Below I provide a summary of my current views on the economy, then some select charts from our economic dashboard with additional commentary.

    At a high level, I believe the US economy is slowing down and is at around 0.8% real GDP growth. It’s not quite at recession levels yet, but it’s close. Q2 GDP numbers were recently revised substantially downward as new data came in. The rest of the world is in a worse position than the US, and it will also affect US growth.

    Capacity utilization, industrial production, business inventories, total business sales, and manufacturing new orders all paint the same picture – a drop in 2020 due to Covid, followed by a spike as the economy reopened in 2021 fueled by money printing. Now, we are back to near zero growth as liquidity is being drained out of the system.

    Inflation is also slowing down. Headline inflation is at 3.3%, and core inflation is at 4.7%. Commodities inflation has been negative for some time, with wage growth and housing costs as the main drivers of sticky inflation. For example, CPI ex-shelter is close to zero. Wage growth is slowly moderating as the job market continues to slow, while housing prices have remained stubbornly high. However, year-over-year growth (which is what matters for inflation) is already at zero. That said, shelter CPI still has some room to grow because it increased a lot less than housing prices did. So, I expect inflation to slow but remain above the 2% target for some time.

    While the job market remains tight due to the mass retirement of Baby Boomers post-Covid, job opening numbers are falling by -23% year-over-year. This should reduce the imbalance between labor supply and demand, continuing to moderate wage growth.

    Producer price indices are negative year-over-year, as are import costs, due to the dollar’s strength and the lag in global growth. The US is importing a lot of deflation.

    Money supply is shrinking rapidly. More importantly for the economy, bank loans are finally dropping as banks feel the squeeze from rising rates and a shrinking deposit base. This is slowly choking the life out of the economy.

    While the federal government’s deficits spiked this year, I believe it is mostly temporary as we are feeling the lagged effects of the 2022 market drop on government tax receipts – there is a very tight correlation between stock market returns and federal tax receipts. So this year’s market bounce will mean a recovery for the federal budget as well. While our budget faces long-term questions, I don’t think we’ll have an acute funding issue in the short term. While some people attributed the recent 10-year Treasury yield rise to default risks, the fact that the dollar also rallied at the same time suggests it was more due to growth expectations, not default risks.

    (There’s more; Go to the link to get it.)

        1. Oil shot through the roof because china was finishing up building for the Beijing Olympics in 2008. After the olympics is when oil started to correct and then you know the rest.

      2. And Joetato just announced he’s cancelling all drilling in ANWR. Being that there are contracts to drill there his EO is probably illegal.

        It’s like they’re trying to destroy the country on purpose.

  26. Dr Harari said, ” We just don’t need a vast majority of the population.”
    So do you think the One World Order Stakeholder Governance is going to give you a universal income, doing nothing , taking drugs and watching videos?
    No, they are going to kill you because they have AI and robot replacement and you will be useless eaters.
    How could the Government afford to have 40 to 50% of the jobs replaced by AI and Robots, not getting tax revenue .
    The new One World Order is a vision for a new world designed by this Monopoly Money Power group, where the earth is for them, and for them only and their technology replacement of most the population.
    They have already stated that 500 million is the ideal figure of humans on planet.
    So while they talk about saving the earth from Climate Change and Panademics, their actions are a depopulation agenda and enslavement of populations.
    You will eat bugs, own nothing, have no freedoms, and this is equity, until they eliminate you from the planet that is for them.
    If you planned mass depopulation you would first have to get the people enslaved and forced to take your mandated poison. You would have to control all movement while you psych out the people its for saving the earth or lives.
    Their fake solutions to their faked emergencies are a recipe for disaster for human populations.
    Your not needed anymore, your not essential, your a useless eater. AI is for us to replace you humans.
    Why would Dr Harari, the guru of the WEF, say such sinister things repeatedly? Isn’t he exposing their evil agenda? They don’t care because they think they will prevail and nothing will be able to stop them .

  27. Chrystia Freeland proves what an evil WITCH she really is
    Northern Perspective
    6 hours ago

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmP_22DKpyY

    8:41. From the comments:

    The trauma and challenge was created by the Governments of all levels.

    It wasn’t because of “covid” we suffered, it was because of our government policies

    That lock down was totally devastating, separating families and friends and denying in home services and therapies. We were just suddenly told we could not go into the care home to see my Mom. No warning, just sudden shut down of the care home. They would not allow us to take her home either. She assumed we had abandoned her. If this happens again, I think there should be a total revolt!

    Animation is appreciated 👍. It just shows you are decent human beings and are rightfully enraged by the attrocities committed against Canadian citizens by this lecherous group of criminals. Thank you for the service you do for us👍👍

    Can’t wait till these criminals are gone

    The vaccines did NOT get us through the pandemic faster. Lockdowns did not help us through the pandemic. I feel for your son. I work with a young adult who lost all the support during the pandemic, terribly tragic, went from a happy guy to an introverted young man who we can not get to leave the house now.

    she mentions the children neglecting to mention how the government response caused the trauma the children experienced

    It breaks my heart to hear about your child. It really screwed up my one daughter’s progress as well but she at least was able to attend school.

    They did damage to all kids across Canada. Freeland is a witch. I totally agree with you both.👍

    We will not forget and will never forgive what these monsters did to our loved ones.

    What a filthy lier , this goverment needs to be investigated for crimes to humanity .

    Compliance is acceptance. Never Comply!!

    As the father Of a special needs child that is in the same situation. As yours I am furious.

    “and I just want to start by um reminding us all what a challenging traumatic time that was” Was? It still is, the average Canadian still hasn’t recovered finically from that time and your government is in fact making the economy even worse than it was then.

    The Wicked Witch Of The WEF

    BS, didn’t need lockdowns etc and certainly didn’t need the jabs. Doesn’t want the contracts out there so people can’t see the kick backs.

  29. ‘To date PwC has found no evidence the bridge loans Martel was selling ever existed, leading some to speculate he was running a Ponzi scheme’

    Sound lending Greg!

  30. ‘Let’s not pretend, it’s tough,’ he said. ‘A lot of people who were busy at the start of the year are now looking for work’

    Wa happened to my worker shortage Campbell?

  31. ‘it had an internal policy for all staff, regardless of whether they were top, middle or entry-level executives. ‘Employees may be required to buy an apartment from the company, or you have to recommend 50 clients to view a property. Essentially, it is an internal marketing campaign,’ said the 27-year-old. The ex-employee bought an apartment from Evergrande, putting in a 20 per cent down payment and taking up a 30-year mortgage. He is currently still servicing his loan at a 5 per cent interest rate, which takes up a third of his monthly salary, even though the apartment he bought has already lost a fifth of its value’

    Should have done the recommend thing former Evergrande employee, now yer fooked and out of a job.

  32. ‘China’s fertility rate is at an all-time low. Now it is about 1.3, even lower than Japan, and the ageing is starting to accelerate’

    Gosh Wang, yer comment makes me think Dan was all wet with his ghost cities rational.

    ‘China used to focus on the construction of new housing. But now that part is basically over. We have to focus more on the service in the real estate sector’

    Psst Wang, the next BIG thing – demolition.

  33. ‘When Evergrande defaulted on payment, he too was unable to repay his own debt, and was forced to sell his family home and move to a rented apartment half the size of his original place. He also had to downsize his firm by half. When he went down to the Evergrande office physically to demand payment, he ended up being arrested by the police’

    I know you’ve had a lot of bad news recently Chen, but it should be mentioned that since this article came out this morning those police will probably be breaking down yer door any minute now.

    via GIPHY

    1. LILLEY UNLEASHED: Trudeau’s personal popularity plummeting in the polls
      Toronto Sun
      1 hour ago

      Sun political columnist Brian Lilley and Warren Kinsella say that as the PM jets around Asia for a series of meetings, seems many Canadians would be happy if he stayed there. Two new polls show Trudeau’s personal popularity falling and his party in a tailspin as Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives rise in support.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTPU9aPKgUg

      7 minutes.

      2. “They are also purchasing large numbers of homes in the USA. RFK Jr claims that by 2030 they could own 60% of the single family homes in America.”

        Why do large corporations want to corner the market in a depreciating asset? Seems like a great way to lose alot of money…alot!

        1. Could this influx of large corporate investors using dumb borrowed money to buy houses possibly explain ever-rising prices on collapsing sales volumes?

          2. If it is true that large corporate investors have acquired large segments of the housing market, then they better get ready to have their clocks cleaned. This would show a level of stupidity on par with the Great Teddy Bear xi. There aren’t any buyers left to purchase the overpriced shacks. They are as valuable as week old tulips.

    2. Cry me a river, FOOLS! You dumb as rocks nuts, you finally are realizing that your salvation was just a bunch of lies!!!! Take that to the bank along with your leased Cadillacs and EBT cards. Dem dum chinamen didn’t do noughfin–why do they all drive new cars?

  39. ‘Some condos in the Bay Area are now worth less than their owners bought them for in 2018 and 2019′

    So the minor respiratory illness has gone away Andrea?

    1. China is pushing ahead with dedollarization, hoarding gold for a 10th straight month after slashing Treasury holdings to a 14-year low
      Joseph Wilkins
      Sep 7, 2023, 9:11 AM PDT
      A man places a gold bar in a locker in a vault at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum.
      Sven Hoppe/picture alliance/Getty Images

      – China’s central bank added 29 tons of gold to its reserves in August, marking a 10th straight increase.

      – The country’s stockpiling of the safe-haven asset coincides with its efforts to move away from its reliance on the dollar.

      – China recently cut its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since 2009.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dedollarization-china-boosts-gold-reserves-after-cutting-treasuries-2009-low-2023-9

    1. LIVE UPDATES
      Updated Thu, Sep 7 2023 10:02 PM EDT
      Asia markets fall as Japan economy grows less than expected; Hong Kong cancels morning trade due to storm
      Lim Hui Jie
      This is CNBC’s live blog covering Asia-Pacific markets.
      Japan ,Tokyo City skyline, Tokyo Tower.
      (Photo by: Dukas/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

      Asia-Pacific markets were lower on Friday as Japan released revised second quarter gross domestic product figures, and Hong Kong cancelled the morning trading session due to a storm warning.

      Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended losses from Wednesday, and fell 0.9%,while the Topix was down 0.56%.

      Japan’s economy grew 4.8% in the second quarter on a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis, a smaller growth than the 6% seen in the preliminary estimates and lower than the 5.5% expected in a Reuters poll.

      Hong Kong’s exchange cancelled the morning trading session after a “black rainstorm” warning was issued.

      Under Hong Kong Exchange guidelines, the morning session has been cancelled if the black rain signal is still in force after 9 a.m. If it is not lifted before 12 p.m., there will no trading for the day.

      Mainland Chinese markets were in negative territory, with the CSI 300 down 0.29%.

      In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200
      were down 0.22%. South Korea’s Kospi slid 0.34%, and the Kosdaq fell 0.18%.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/08/asia-stock-markets-today-live-updates.html

    2. Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Markets
      Nasdaq dragged lower as Apple’s 2-day valuation wipeout nears $200bn
      Shares of tech group sink on reports China plans to ban government officials from using iPhones
      A montage of a globe and a chart
      Kate Duguid in New York and Daria Mosolova in London 7 hours ago

      A drop in Apple’s shares pulled US stock indices lower on Thursday, as news that China would broaden a ban on the use of iPhones helped push the tech giant’s market capitalisation wipeout over the past two sessions to nearly $200bn.

      Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 fell 0.3 per cent and the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite declined 0.9 per cent, extending losses from the previous trading session.

      Apple shares closed 2.9 per cent lower on Thursday, pushing their decline since Tuesday’s closing bell to 6.4 per cent in one of their steepest two-day sell-offs this year.

      The company carries the biggest index weighting in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The drop in Apple’s stock comes after The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday reported that Chinese government officials had been ordered to not use iPhones for work.

      Broader concerns over the outlook for the Chinese economy have been a recurring theme this week. Data from Beijing on Thursday showed Chinese exports fell 8.8 per cent year on year in August, while imports declined 7.3 per cent in a sign that demand was slowing domestically and abroad.

      China’s CSI 300 fell 1.4 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.3 per cent.

      Oil prices edged lower, as worries about slowing demand in China — the world’s top importer of the fossil fuel — overshadowed an earlier announcement of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

      Brent crude, the international marker, settled 0.8 per cent lower to trade at $89.92 a barrel, although it remains near its highest level this year, while the US equivalent West Texas Intermediate dropped 0.8 per cent to $86.86 a barrel.

      In Europe the region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 ended the day 0.1 per cent lower, marking its seventh successive day of losses. Germany’s Dax also declined 0.1 per cent.
      …

    3. CHART OF THE DAY: This indicator shows the stock market is the most overvalued it’s been since the dot-com bubble crash
      Matthew Fox
      Sep 7, 2023, 9:13 AM PDT
      Ned Davis Research

      – The stock market is the most overvalued its been since the dot-com bubble crash, according to Ned Davis Research.

      – The research firm highlighted the relationship between the S&P 500’s earnings yield and interest rates.

      – High cash yields have sparked a rush for money market funds, which have attracted more than $1 trillion from investors since March 2022.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-most-overvalued-since-dot-com-bubble-crash-indicator-2023-9

    4. Warren Buffett’s cash mountain is bigger than Disney after its epic stock plunge
      Theron Mohamed
      Sep 7, 2023, 6:30 AM PDT
      Warren Buffett is a big fan of holding cash so he can pounce on bargains. Marc Cardwell/Reuters

      – Warren Buffett’s $147 billion cash pile is worth more than Disney’s entire market value.

      – Berkshire Hathaway has boosted its reserves, while Disney stock has plunged 60% from its peak.

      – Buffett has struggled to find bargains, while Disney’s been hit by disruptions and controversy.

      Warren Buffett’s cash mountain is worth more than the entire value of Disney, reflecting the investor’s financial prudence and the dramatic decline in the media behemoth’s stock price.

      Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway held a near-record $147.4 billion in cash, Treasury bills, and other liquid assets at the end of June, its second-quarter earnings showed.

      Disney shares sunk to their lowest level in nine years on Thursday, dragging the company’s market capitalization to just below $147 billion in early trading.

      Berkshire’s cash pile ballooned by about 40%, or $42 billion, in the 12 months to June 30, partly because Buffett and his team sold a net $29 billion of stocks in that period, an Insider analysis shows.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-disney-stock-price-cash-pile-desantis-2023-9

    5. Financial Times
      Currencies
      Euro heads for eight-week losing streak as economy falters
      Steady decline against dollar reflects growing gulf with more robust US performance
      US dollar and euro currency bills
      Some investors are talking about the euro area experiencing a period of stagflation
      Mary McDougall, George Steer and Daria Mosolova in London and Martin Arnold in Frankfurt 2 hours ago

      The euro is on course for an eighth straight week of losses against the dollar, as investors respond to a widening gulf between a faltering economy in the eurozone and more robust growth in the US.

      The currency has lost more than 5 per cent since mid-July to trade at $1.07. The steady grind lower reflects intensifying doubts over whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates again at its meeting next week amid widespread signs that the eurozone economy is heading for a downturn.

      Industrial production in Germany — the eurozone’s traditional growth engine — fell for a third month in a row in July, figures on Thursday showed. Meanwhile, US jobless claims fell unexpectedly, the latest sign of resilience in the labour market. That is likely to encourage the US Federal Reserve to hold rates at a high level for longer, boosting the appeal of the dollar.
      …

    6. Financial Times
      German economy
      Germany’s industrial gloom deepens as production falls
      Sharp decline in carmaking drives third consecutive drop, as second-quarter eurozone growth is revised down to 0.1%
      A Volkswagen plant in Zwickau, Germany
      A worker fits doors at a Volkswagen plant in Zwickau, Germany. Production in the country’s carmaking sector has plunged 9%
      Martin Arnold in Frankfurt and Laura Pitel in Berlin 14 hours ago

      A sharp decline in carmaking fuelled a downturn in German industry as production fell for the third consecutive month in July, intensifying pressure on Berlin to lift the economy out of the doldrums.

      The 0.8 per cent month-on-month decline reported by Germany’s statistical office exceeded the 0.5 per cent fall forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. It would have been even bigger without a rebound in energy and construction output in July. Production in Germany’s carmaking sector fell 9 per cent.

      “Germany’s industrial production continues its nosedive and even diehard pessimists are getting frightened,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at Dutch bank ING, who calculated that the measure was still 7 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.
      …

    7. Silver price outlook sours, hamstrung by soaring U.S. dollar, Treasury yields – FX Empire’s James Hyerczyk
      Ernest Hoffman
      Wednesday September 06, 2023 16:59

      (Kitco News) – The recent strength of the U.S. Dollar and the dramatic runup in Treasury yields have put considerable pressure on silver and gold, discouraging precious metals buying from investors holding other currencies, according to FX Empire’s James Hyerczyk.

      Hyerczyk noted that spot silver prices hit two-week lows on Wednesday, bouncing off $23 an ounce around 11 am EDT. “This drop coincides with the U.S. dollar approaching a six-month high and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields,” he said. “The prevailing sentiment suggests an ongoing demand for high-interest rates, largely fueled by concerns surrounding China’s economic status and worldwide growth. Consequently, silver, similar to gold, becomes less accessible for those holding foreign currencies.”

      After the Labor Day long weekend, Hyerczyk said market participants’ focus has been on rising U.S. Treasury yields, which hit a 14-year high late last week, along with rising oil prices. “The backdrop to this market tension is last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which indicated a peak in unemployment rates since early 2022 and declining hourly earnings, causing a shift in investors’ views on inflation and Federal Reserve policies,” he said.

      Hyerczyk noted that the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 93% chance of a hold at the next Fed meeting, but markets are wary of one or more potential hikes by the end of the year depending on what the data show.

      “Recent reports indicate a slowing global business landscape, bolstering the appeal of the U.S. dollar as a stable asset over precious metals like silver and gold,” he said. “Confirming this sentiment, the SPDR Gold Trust, a leading gold-backed exchange-traded fund, registered a 0.1% drop in its holdings.”

      Hyerczyk said the combination of sky-high U.S. interest rates and Treasury bond yields with a strengthening U.S. dollar mean the short-term outlook for silver is solidly bearish. “The increased opportunity costs associated with retaining unyielding silver, in conjunction with impending policy shifts, cement a gloomy prediction for this precious metal,” he said.
      …
      https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-09-06/Silver-price-outlook-sours-hamstrung-by-soaring-U-S-dollar-Treasury-yields-FX-Empire-s-James-Hyerczyk.html

    8. An inverted yield curve usually signals recession. Is it wrong this time?
      Matt Levin
      Sep 7, 2023
      Heard on:
      When the yield curve inverts, it indicates that bond investors are betting on a coming recession.
      Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

      You know that once-mythical soft landing thing that Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee referenced in his recent interview with Marketplace? It’s the thing where inflation is tamed but the economy stays just fine. Well, more and more economists are convinced that’s actually going to happen.

      Goldman Sachs recently put the odds of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months at just 15%, down from a projection of 35% in March.

      If Goldman Sachs is right, that means the bond market might be wrong. For well over a year now, we’ve had what’s known as an inverted yield curve, meaning the interest paid by 10-year Treasury bonds has been lower than shorter-term debt, like two-year Treasurys.

      Historically, inverted yield curves have been a pretty reliable indicator that a recession is likely.

      In normal times, investors receive a higher interest rate from longer-term government debt, which makes sense — the longer you lock up your money, the more you want in interest.
      …
      https://www.marketplace.org/2023/09/07/inverted-yield-curve-signals-a-recession-wrong/

    9. DOW FUTURES -0.11%
      S&P 500 FUTURES -0.13%
      NASDAQ 100 FUTURES -0.18%

      Jeremy Grantham sounds the alarm on stocks, recession, inflation, and interest rates in a new interview. Here are his 8 best quotes.
      Theron Mohamed
      Sep 6, 2023, 4:20 AM PDT
      Jeremy Grantham.
      Nicholas Roberts/Reuters

      – Jeremy Grantham rang the alarm on inflation, interest rates, markets, and the economy.

      – The veteran investor predicts stocks will tumble and a protracted recession will strike.

      – Grantham shared the story of his dot-com bubble call, and said he’s betting big on venture capital.

      Get ready for stocks to slump, a recession to strike, and both inflation and interest rates to remain elevated for years, Jeremy Grantham warns in a new episode of “Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein.”

      The veteran investor and GMO cofounder, who rang the alarm on a “superbubble” and predicted a devastating crash last year, says the world has bigger problems than the outlook for financial markets and the economy.

      He also shares the painful experience of calling the dot-com bubble, and reveals he’s virtually all-in on venture capital.

      Here are Grantham’s eight best quotes from the interview, edited and condensed for clarity:

      1. “I’m very sensitive to the idea that you can be so depressing no one would want to live with you.” (Grantham was asked whether people get tired of his grim warnings and gloomy predictions.)

      2. “In the end, life is simple. Low rates push up asset prices. Higher rates push asset prices down. We’re now in an era that will average higher rates than we had for the last 10 years.”

      3. “I suspect inflation will never be as low as it averaged for the last 10 years, that we have re-entered a period of moderately higher inflation, and therefore moderately higher interest rates.”

      4. “The Fed’s record on these things is wonderful. It’s almost guaranteed to be wrong. They have never called a recession – and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles.”

      5. “AI is very important. But it’s perhaps too little, too late to save us from a recession. The deflationary forces from the tech stocks breaking in 2021 — probably too big. The power of interest rates rising and depressing the real estate market — very negative, slow-moving influence. I suspect that they will once again dominate, and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year, and an accompanying decline in stock prices.”
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-gmo-stock-market-outlook-recession-inflation-interest-rates-2023-9

    10. Financial Times
      Markets Briefing Markets
      European industrial stocks slide on China slowdown worries
      Oil prices edge lower following sharp rises earlier in week
      A montage of a globe and a chart
      Daria Mosolova in London 2 hours ago

      European shares slid on Friday, led by basic material and industrial stocks, as investors worried that an economic slowdown in China could weigh on global demand.

      Europe’s region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 gave up early gains, based on gains for defensive stocks, to trade 0.5 per cent lower and on track to record its eighth straight day of losses. France’s Cac 40 and Germany’s Dax lost 0.6 per cent and 0.7 per cent respectively.

      The Stoxx Europe Industrial Goods and Services index lost 1.2 per cent, leading a broad-based decline. Three-quarters of the benchmark Stoxx 600 index fell.

      The moves come amid a week of bleak economic data releases from China, which signalled a continued decline in its exports and imports as well as a weakening service sector.

      In the US, futures contracts tracking the benchmark S&P 500 and those tracking the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3 per cent ahead of the New York open.
      …

  43. The $100 Billion Luxury Complex That’s Sitting Empty and Unfinished
    China’s Country Garden had big ambitions for its luxury Malaysian high rises, but the development is regarded as a ‘ghost city’ nearly a decade after construction began
    The Forest City project in Malaysia is 15% complete, with only one of four planned islands on reclaimed land built.
    ORE HUIYING FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
    By Feliz SolomonFollow
    and Rebecca FengFollow
    | Photographs by Ore Huiying for The Wall Street Journal
    Updated Sept. 8, 2023 12:01 am ET

    ISKANDAR PUTERI, Malaysia—On the southern tip of peninsular Malaysia, a cluster of high rises built to house tens of thousands of people in luxury condominiums overlooks the sea. Nearly a decade after troubled Chinese real-estate giant Country Garden began building the enclave, it is almost completely vacant.
    …

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