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It’s Gone, My Money Is Gone, I Don’t Think … It’s Coming Back

A report from Bank Rate. “‘We simply don’t have enough inventory,” said Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist. ‘Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.’ Housing economists agree that prices could fall, but the decline won’t be as severe as the one homeowners experienced during the Great Recession. One obvious difference between now and then is that homeowners’ personal balance sheets are much stronger today than they were 15 years ago.”

WPDE in South Carolina. “There are programs out there to help you purchase a house even if you don’t have money for a down payment or closing costs, and they can have you building equity in your dream home in no time. ‘Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA all of them are pushing for affordable housing. They’re all trying to get in that game, and so they’re all coming up with new products which is awesome,’ said Lori Beardslee, a Sr. Branch Manager at Silverton Mortgage. ‘If you were buying a house for $250,000, I would tell the agent to write the contract, and I’m making this up, for $257,000 with the buyer paying $7,000 in closing costs. So, the seller still gets the 250 they wanted. The buyer has financed those closing costs technically into the price they’re going to pay in the house, and they’re getting 100% financing. So, they can literally have little to nothing invested in the purchase.'”

“Beardslee said it’s a good time to buy now because you’re missing out on the equity you could be creating in your home. ‘If you don’t buy now and say I’m going to wait a year and a half and buy when they drop to five, well you’ve lost anywhere from five to ten percent appreciation on the value of that house by not getting in the game. The housing values aren’t dropping. They’re still going up because of the lack of inventory. So, get in the game. Start making money for yourself. Then you can refinance later,’ said Beardslee.”

The Waco Tribune in Texas. “The housing industry in Greater Waco remains challenging. ‘We’re seeing more price reductions, and some builders are dumping their higher-end lots because they can’t sell them,’ said Jenny McCaslin, an agent with White Label Realty Co. ‘Higher-end homes are not selling.'”

News 12 in Arizona. “Lisa and Michael Murphy were moving into their dream home. They had moved from Oregon to Arizona in July 2022 and eyed a brand new community, the Lakes, being built in Maricopa by Richmond American. They were elated when Richmond American called and said one of their model homes was available – and for an additional few thousand dollars, they could pay for the house to come fully furnished. They closed on the home in January. But they say when they moved in, it was far from perfect. It was a mess. ‘The house was filthy. There was urine on the toilet seat,’ Murphy said. ‘Dirty decorator towels, the shower wasn’t cleaned. They said, ‘Oh, we hire a construction cleaning crew. So it’s never clean.'”

“The Murphys moved out of their infested home while Richmond American came back and cleaned. Their problems did not end there. ‘The irrigation system just blew up,’ Murphy said. The company did not address the problem or others on their 93-page inspection report for months. Most items still need to be fixed today. ‘They treated you like kings and queens, but then once you sign and get your money, that’s it. It’s like they don’t care,’ Murphy said. The Murphys are not alone. ‘We still haven’t had a housewarming because we’re too embarrassed,’ said Renault Carrington. They live two doors down from the Murphys.”

The Seattle Times in Washington. “After years of huge pandemic-driven price growth, King County home prices peaked in May 2022 at nearly $1 million and have since fallen 9%. But a limited supply of homes for sale keeps prices from plummeting further. Higher mortgage rates — currently averaging 7%, up from 6% a year ago and 3% in 2021 — drive up monthly payments and dampen competition as many would-be buyers abandon the market and others become choosier ‘If you’re going to pay 30% more this year than you were going to a year ago, you’re going to be a little more picky,’ said John L. Scott agent Jon Bye, based in Kent. ‘It still favors towards a sellers’ market.’ Fewer than 3% of homes sold in the Seattle area from May through July were sold at a loss, up from 1% a year earlier but still far below San Francisco’s 12%, according to Redfin. The median loss in Seattle was about $50,000.”

The Lovell Chronicle in Wyoming. “The real estate market has finally cooled down in north Big Horn County after being supercharged during the COVID-19 pandemic, but high interest rates and a limited supply still make housing a difficult local market. ‘Yes, it is on its way back to normalization,’ real estate broker Sarah Johnson said. ‘That is happening.’ In 2021, there were a lot of people from the West Coast walking into Johnson’s office looking to make the move to Wyoming. That phenomenon has largely disappeared. ‘That was true in 2021. That has calmed down. We’re back now to seeing what we’ve always seen,’ Johnson said, ‘It’s people moving around versus people moving in.'”

The Real Deal on Georgia. “An Atlanta apartment investor, specializing in buy-and-flip properties, had one of its complexes fall into foreclosure, while another potential auction was postponed due to missed payments. A subsidiary of MSC Investment & Management LLC defaulted on a loan for the Virginia Highlands Apartment Homes located at 609 Virginia Avenue, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported. The lender, H.I.G. Realty Financing, took control of the property through foreclosure for $65 million. No other bids were placed on the nine-building, 270-unit complex, which MSC had acquired just last year for $81 million. Another property owned by an MSC subsidiary, Celebration At Sandy Springs at 7000 Roswell Road, was also slated for foreclosure, but the sale was delayed.”

“Both loans for the properties were relatively short-term — about three years — with variable interest rates that amounted to over 70 percent of the purchase price. Experts said that long-term apartment investors typically borrow around 50 percent of the acquisition cost.”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “The second office building in as many months has sold in downtown Boston — for a price 17 percent less than what it fetched a decade ago. Boston-based real estate firm Synergy Investments has acquired One Liberty Square, a 13-story building in the Financial District, for $45 million, according to a deed filed in Suffolk County on Friday. In a sign of the troubles facing Boston’s office market since the start of COVID-19, that’s a sum $9 million lower than the $54.4 million New York-based real estate firm Clarion Partners paid for the building in 2013, and $24 million less than the $69 million at which the Boston assessor’s office values the property. It’s a striking reversal from pre-pandemic years, when sales were brisk and buildings fetched ever-higher prices.”

“Synergy’s purchase of One Liberty Square comes at a time when office space availability is at an all-time high in Greater Boston. It’s even higher for so-called ‘Class B’ space — typically older and smaller buildings like One Liberty — that are now on average 30 percent empty. That sector ‘continues to be the biggest drag on the market,’ according to Colliers. Some experts estimate that many buildings have lost between 20 to 40 percent of their value — a big reason why the city is starting to encourage some to be converted to housing or other uses.”

London Free Press. “A new report on August home sales released by the London St. Thomas Association of Realtors (LSTAR) says the average local sale price was $663,663 in August, down about $5,000 from the month before. The average local home price last month was far off the record set in early 2022, before a series of Bank of Canada interest rate hikes to address inflation put the brakes on the runaway market. Average home prices in the LSTAR area hit $825,000 in February 2022, dropping to $762,400 by May and hitting $648,000 by August 2022. About 1,200 new listings came online last month, compared to 1,333 the month before.”

The Telegraph in the UK. “Spiralling mortgage costs are upending the carefully laid financial plans of millions of homeowners across the country, stretching budgets to breaking point and forcing some to sell beloved family homes. But for the super-rich, it’s a different story. With the help of elite tax lawyers, accountants and private bankers, uber-wealthy individuals are sidestepping surging remortgaging costs on expensive properties, and even cashing in on the property crisis. One German billionaire, a client of Paul Welch, founder and chief executive of private finance business Million Plus, used a low-interest loan to snap up a £6m UK property at a steep discount. The seller could no longer afford the mortgage payments and needed a quick sell, and the client spied an opportunity to put his wealth to work.”

“Borrowing against the value of an asset – known as a Lombard loan – is one of the cheapest ways to raise money quickly. And it’s the wealthy making the most of it, expanding their property portfolios using low-interest credit. ‘It’s opportunistic buying, which if you have the money makes perfect sense,’ Mr Welch says. ‘You buy a property at a 20pc discount from a ‘distressed’ seller, rent it out with a yield of 5pc, then the yield covers the debt servicing cost – and you haven’t had to part with any cash.'”

DPA International. “Germany’s construction sector is facing collapse as financing for new projects dries up, the head of the country’s skilled crafts association (ZDH) warned on Sunday. ‘In the construction sector, we’re heading for a wall at high speed, and the government is simply unable to hit the brakes,’ Jörg Dittrich, head of the ZDH, told the Sunday edition of the mass-circulation Bild newspaper. ‘The construction section, with its 2.33 million workers is a key sector for skilled crafts, and this sector threatens to collapse completely,’ Dittrich said.”

“Projects agreed and financed years ago were being worked through, while financing for future projects had collapsed, he said. While the ruling coalition was talking about deregulation, it was doing nothing, he said. ‘The regulations remain just as complex, the subsidy programmes agreed are just a drop in the ocean,’ Dittrich said.”

ABC News in Australia. “Kris Agrawal was the go-to advisor for many in his orbit. When Yogita Patel needed a home loan, fellow temple-goers encouraged her to seek his help. He was Rajeev Kumar’s mortgage broker, financial advisor and accountant. Others turned to him to help build their dream home. Three years ago, Mr Agrawal began developing properties, offering his friends and loyal clients enticing returns on investment in his projects across western Sydney. More than 150 mum and dad investors sunk almost $60 million into the scheme – money they fear they may never see again after the shocking collapse of several companies connected to Mr Agrawal and his wife Shashi.”

“Mrs Patel has been her family’s sole earner since her husband was brutally bashed in 2010, an attack that left him with a severe brain injury and unable to work. She had her own health issues and was worried for her family’s future when Mr Agrawal – her financial advisor of about a decade – suggested she invest in a housing project at Castle Hill. Mrs Patel received some interest on her initial investment, but she cries as she recalls the company’s demise. It went into voluntary administration in June. ‘I got the email and I told him in my language, ‘Did you lose all my money?’ and he said, ‘Yes,’ Mrs Patel told 7.30. ‘I was so shocked I just literally drop on the floor. It’s gone, my money is gone, I don’t think … it’s coming back. Everything is messed up.'”

“Mr Kumar estimates he invested more than $1 million in the scheme. He told 7.30 he and his wife have nothing left in their superannuation fund. ‘My message to Kris is, you have to pay our money back,’ he said. ‘We need our money back — everyone.'”

From Bloomberg. “Hong Kong property stocks suffered their biggest selloff in seven months, hit by disappointing earnings at the city’s top builder and a major bank’s reported plan to raise mortgage rates. The Hang Seng Index’s property sub-gauge dropped as much as 4.5%, the most since Feb. 13. Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Hong Kong’s biggest developer, led the declines by plunging nearly 13% to its lowest intraday level since 2009. The selling came after Sun Hung Kai recorded a worse-than-expected 17% drop in full-year profit, another example of a local real estate market pressured by rising interest rates and a supply glut. HSBC Holdings Plc’s reported plan to increase mortgage rates also has exacerbated concerns about a potential price war among local developers.”

“If more banks follow HSBC’s lead, it will add further pressure on local developers ‘as they either need to cut prices to support sales, which will hurt margins, or simply suffer from lower revenue,’ said Patrick Wong, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. Fears of a home price war in the city has surfaced since billionaire Li Ka-shing’s real estate arm offered deep discounts on a new project last month. Other local builders also fell Monday.”

From News.com.au. “The saying goes that when China sneezes, Australia catches a fiscal cold – and if that adage holds true now, some fear our economy is in for an especially nasty illness. Not too long ago, China was meant to overtake the US as the world’s economic superpower – a milestone that was meant to be met by now. In its latest analysis, Bloomberg predicts ‘it may never pull ahead to claim the top spot.'”

Channel News Asia. “In 2015, when Lingshan was deciding what to study in university, China’s property market was booming and civil engineering seemed a lucrative choice. Fast forward seven years and Lingshan, who graduated with a master’s degree last year, is in an awkward situation. She has been unemployed for a year and is living in an apartment merely 8 square metres in size in the eastern city of Nanjing. ‘Why did I study civil engineering? Oh my, that was stupid,’ said Lingshan, who asked to be identified by her online alias. ‘I had wanted to work for a real estate developer but by the time I graduated, they were going bust one after another,’ she recalled. ‘I was hit in the face by the downturn.'”

“According to Chinese media reports, the country’s top 50 property developers cut 200,000 jobs last year. With many homes unfinished and property prices continuing to decline, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Lingshan recently received another reality check from an employment consultant. ‘If you still want to stay in civil engineering, your resume is a bit awkward,’ the consultant, Xu Hongfei, told her. ‘First, you are a woman, so you can’t work at construction sites. Normally they hire men to do that,’ he continued. ‘Also, most companies would only recruit from the graduating class. Right now, that’s the Class of 2024, and you graduated in 2022.’ China’s unemployment data and social media chatter show Lingshan is not alone in her predicament.”

“Qiang, who is from China’s southwest, recently graduated in eldercare – a relevant skill in a rapidly ageing country. But he is no longer keen on putting his degree to use. ‘It pays too little, and the hours are long,’ he said. ‘You need to be on standby 24 hours a day and do night shifts. When on probation, the salary is only 1,500 to 2,000 yuan (S$279 to S$372),’ he said. ‘Even when you are confirmed, you get paid at most 3,000 yuan (S$558).'”

“Bantering with friends over a meal, one of them quipped: ‘Become a care worker? Who’s going to marry you? You want to be single forever? With the salary of a care worker, you can’t even afford to have a cat.’ Another friend piped up: ‘Can’t even support yourself, forget about the cat.'”

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This Post Has 134 Comments

  1. ‘Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA all of them are pushing for affordable housing. They’re all trying to get in that game, and so they’re all coming up with new products which is awesome,’ said Lori Beardslee, a Sr. Branch Manager at Silverton Mortgage. ‘If you were buying a house for $250,000, I would tell the agent to write the contract, and I’m making this up, for $257,000 with the buyer paying $7,000 in closing costs. So, the seller still gets the 250 they wanted. The buyer has financed those closing costs technically into the price they’re going to pay in the house, and they’re getting 100% financing. So, they can literally have little to nothing invested in the purchase’

    I have explained about seeing this in transactions myself before, years ago and it still goes on. It’s over 100% financing to broke a$$ people. Wa could go wrong? And it requires – the appraiser to hit the number! Who always does, even with the last minute UHS price manipulation.

    Sound lending!

      1. The first time I saw this was 2018 in Kingman AZ. I asked around to people who had just sold some shacks and they said the exact same scenario happened with them. Price agreed, buyers agent calls sellers agent and says hey, can we bump up the purchase prices and you cover closing costs? I’ve seen it again as recently as last spring. You got guberment guaranteed subprime loans going to people who can’t scrape up even 500 pesos.

        1. Oh, it’s been going on a long time. I know because I was one of the guys that saw it happen starting back in the late 90’s when I began as a loan officer and eventually owned my own brokerage. The difference between then and now is that the lenders weren’t as complicit with the game as they are now. You had to find ways to hide what you were trying to pull off and there was many ways to do it (and yes, it meant “bending” a lot of rules). Most of the time the underwriters knew what you were trying to pull, but if you made it look good on paper you usually got away with it. But then came the subprime wave and starting in about ‘04they rolled out the 103% loan which accomplished the same thing with out having to operate in the dark. And that’s what turned me into a believer back then that the crash was eminent. Because it doesn’t matter how you wrap it, or what the person’s credit score is, letting someone buy a home without absolutely no skin in the game is toxic lending. I don’t care if it’s FHA, Freddie/Fannie or whatever….it’s SUBPRIME and as a whole destined for failure. So when you see examples like this or Zillow offering 1% down (again, easily manipulated to nothing down) know that the end is nigh.

          1. Wow, crazy. I bought my first house in 1992…I had to show them 4 months of bank statements to prove my $7000 was not a gift…maybe being so young…I was 25. Now this, that’s BS.

          2. I bought my first house in 2012, and I had to show 2 years of pay stubs, all financial statements including retirement (in a super-special PDF format for Fannie Mae), and months of checking. They told me that lots of people “move money around” and they wanted to make sure I didn’t do that. I guess they were looking for evidence of gifts.

            Of course a year later, it was off to the races again. They had to loosen up, or else they would barely sell any mortgages. All the houses would be bought cash by infestors, and boom, no more interest payments or juicy fees.

          3. “They had to loosen up, or else they would barely sell any mortgages”

            Exactly. Do we see the rinse-and-repeat pattern here? And they’re being careful not to call any of this subprime because, of course, it’s different this time. IT’S SUBPRIME!! And I challenge anyone to present their argument and prove me wrong.

          4. It reminds me of a story that Elizabeth Warren tells (this is before she went totally bonkers): She was giving a presentation to some bank executives, telling them they could avoid credit defaults by screening out customers with low FICO. The bank CEO walked in and said “This is preposterous, low FICO is where we make all our profit.”

            I guess this is why financially responsible people called “deadbeats.” In any other context, deadbeat is a bad thing.

      2. No-money-down was one of first walls to fall. The real last gasp was the no-money-down, no-doc, negative amortization pick-a-pay NINJA ARM from WAMU which adjusted after only 2 months.

        1. At the very end last time there was 100% stated income/stated asset 580 FICO. 103% same FICO with minimal documentation. This was about the same time people were inventing straw buyers, homeless folks suddenly owned 600k homes. I was a scene man.

  2. ‘The house was filthy. There was urine on the toilet seat,’ Murphy said. ‘Dirty decorator towels, the shower wasn’t cleaned. They said, ‘Oh, we hire a construction cleaning crew. So it’s never clean’

    I gt new fer ya Lisa, those Guatemalans have been using yer interior walls as a porta potty the entire time they were throwing up this crappy shack in the middle of nowhere.

    ‘We still haven’t had a housewarming because we’re too embarrassed’

    Well it was cheaper than renting Renault. This article is a hoot.

  3. ‘Fewer than 3% of homes sold in the Seattle area from May through July were sold at a loss, up from 1% a year earlier but still far below San Francisco’s 12%, according to Redfin. The median loss in Seattle was about $50,000’

    We’re better off than bay aryans! How the mighty have fallen.

  4. ‘An Atlanta apartment investor, specializing in buy-and-flip properties, had one of its complexes fall into foreclosure, while another potential auction was postponed due to missed payments’

    ‘The lender, H.I.G. Realty Financing, took control of the property through foreclosure for $65 million. No other bids were placed on the nine-building, 270-unit complex, which MSC had acquired just last year for $81 million’

    Just like that, they gave it away.

    1. So 20% down means $16 million of RE investor equity wiped out just like that in one year. The lender better hope they can sell the building at only a 20% loss so they can break even.

      No bubble at all

  5. The second office building in as many months has sold in downtown Boston — for a price 17 percent less than what it fetched a decade ago…It’s a striking reversal from pre-pandemic years, when sales were brisk and buildings fetched ever-higher prices’

    On the bright side, downtown Boston has all the narcan you can eat!

  6. ‘used a low-interest loan to snap up a £6m UK property at a steep discount. The seller could no longer afford the mortgage payments and needed a quick sell’

    That’s the spirit wealthy individual, low ball their a$$!

  7. ‘In the construction sector, we’re heading for a wall at high speed, and the government is simply unable to hit the brakes…The construction section, with its 2.33 million workers is a key sector for skilled crafts, and this sector threatens to collapse completely…The regulations remain just as complex, the subsidy programmes agreed are just a drop in the ocean’

    Yer entire economy is circling the bowl Jörg. Look at yer industrial production. How does wagging yer finger at the brexit look now?

  8. ‘The saying goes that when China sneezes, Australia catches a fiscal cold – and if that adage holds true now, some fear our economy is in for an especially nasty illness. Not too long ago, China was meant to overtake the US as the world’s economic superpower – a milestone that was meant to be met by now. In its latest analysis, Bloomberg predicts ‘it may never pull ahead to claim the top spot’

    Where did that saying come from bloomberg? Oh right, the globalist scum just made it up and you guys repeated it like a cult for decades. Never mind that no communist country lasts long, much less takes over the world.

    ‘Bantering with friends over a meal, one of them quipped: ‘Become a care worker? Who’s going to marry you? You want to be single forever? With the salary of a care worker, you can’t even afford to have a cat.’ Another friend piped up: ‘Can’t even support yourself, forget about the cat’

    Behold:

    co·los·sus
    /kəˈläsəs/
    noun: colossus; plural noun: colossi; plural noun: colossuses

    -a statue that is much bigger than life size.
    “two statues known as the Colossi of Memnon”
    -a person or thing of enormous size, importance, or ability.

  9. A reader sent these in:

    New container bookings for US imports are in a free fall with no signs of slowing. This trend is eerily similar to late ‘08 and through ‘09 when the GFC caused a decline in import volumes (20-30% y/y) that took another 4-5 years to catch back up to the trend line from ‘03-‘07.

    https://twitter.com/TEU_Byers/status/1700060602402590750

    US Mortgage Purchase Applications Fell 16.7% Over the Past Ten Weeks, Hitting Lowest Since 1995

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1700464063694930289

    OMG Pay for your $5000+ vacation with Klarna $450 monthly installments. What part of the Airbnb cycle is *this* level of consumer desperation?

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1700341057056120880

    1/11 Banks are in a pretty bad spot when considering the unrealized losses on securities at FDIC-insured commercial banks rose +$42.9bn to $558.4bn in 2Q23 (+8% QoQ), following two consecutive months of declines. Stated differently, of the $5.089tn in total securities held by…

    https://twitter.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1700335550505337317

    Goldman Sachs to layoff approx ~2,500 in latest job cut announcement coming as soon as October

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1700132885766791365

    Do AirBNB executives even believe their own business model makes it through an economic cycle?

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699943249908015493

    Bank Term Funding Program new high at 107.855bn

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699895597497721219

    Restoration Hardware -8.15% on earnings

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699881999102603457

    Slalom Consulting lays off 7% of workforce – 900 employees

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699835603892990327

    CEO just announced via LinkedIn. The American way!

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699836282334277793

    Phoenix MSA monthly eviction filings at their highest level on record, 7,693 new filings for August.

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699622169804734575

    Off Lease Only – one of the largest dealerships in Florida – has been forced into liquidation, will lay off 800 employees as car market conditions deteriorate

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699567083019706396

    Weekly Reddit check-in

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1699492353407324308

    1. Off Lease Only – one of the largest dealerships in Florida – has been forced into liquidation, will lay off 800 employees as car market conditions deteriorate

      With new vehicle, especially pickup trucks, inventory piling up perhaps the big 3 will welcome the impending strike.

      1. It’s obvious that the MSM is spinning and using the potential AW strike to stoke the FOMO again. There was a talking head spouting that it’s urgent to buy now because the strike will create a supply shortage and higher prices. And I’m sure some moronic sheep will get sucked in.

        1. “It’s obvious that the MSM is spinning and using the potential AW strike to stoke the FOMO again.”

          \\

          – Clearly Jeff Bezos knows “a thing or two” about the business and credit cycles. I’m sure that this quote applies to any “big ticket item,” durable goods, etc., including housing, which is the biggest big ticket item for most people (maybe a yacht for Jeff).

          https://www.marketwatch.com/story/black-friday-surprise-jeff-bezos-tells-people-not-to-buy-cars-refrigerators-and-other-big-ticket-items-critics-call-him-out-11668710638

          Black Friday surprise: Jeff Bezos tells people not to buy cars, refrigerators and other big-ticket items. Critics call him out.

          Last Updated: Nov. 19, 2022 at 8:42 a.m. ET
          First Published: Nov. 17, 2022 at 1:43 p.m. ET
          By Andrew Keshner

          Billionaire Jeff Bezos, who founded the e-tail behemoth Amazon, has some spending tips as Americans gear up for the holiday shopping season — amid four-decade-high inflation and recession worries.

          Here’s what he said:

          ‘If you’re an individual and you’re thinking about buying a large-screen TV, maybe slow that down, keep that cash, see what happens. Same thing with a refrigerator, a new car, whatever. Just take some risk off the table.’

          Bezos made the comments in a CNN WBD, 2.52% interview that aired this week, the same interview in which he pledged to give away most of his fortune in his lifetime.

          Why did Bezos offer the tip for consumers and small business to go easy on big-ticket items? He provided one big reason.

          “If we’re not in a recession right now, we’re likely to be in one very soon,” he said in the interview, picking up on a cautionary tweet last month that “the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches.”

          \\

          “Who are you going to believe, me, or your lying eyes?” – Groucho or Chico Marx

          1. Why would anyone buy a new fridge if their old one hadn’t died? And you kinda need a fridge if you old one is dead. (same thing with cars although most people think of cars as a “thing to have”).

          2. (same thing with cars although most people think of cars as a “thing to have”).

            Cars have a safety component. My 7th generation Civic runs great, but it is less safe than most modern cars.

      2. “With new vehicle, especially pickup trucks, inventory piling up perhaps the big 3 will welcome the impending strike.”

        I was thinking the same thing.

    2. “Pay for your $5000+ vacation with Klarna $450 monthly installments”

      Didn’t people used to just use a credit card for stuff like this?

    3. That Phoenix eviction chart is worth a look. My read on it is it is just now starting to catch up and will need to go much higher just to absorb the average rate that was put on hold. Add in a recession and the record for this cycle could be quite a bit higher. A foreclosure chart should be similar but time shifted forward a bit. In the long run, Phoenix should become a dystopian nightmare. Some would argue it already is.

  10. CNBC (9/11/2023):

    “A whopping 90% of companies plan to implement return-to-office policies by the end of 2024, according to an Aug. report from Resume Builder, which surveyed 1,000 company leaders. Nearly 30% say their company will threaten to fire employees who don’t comply with in-office requirements.

    Only 2% of business leaders said their company never plans to require employees to work in person.

    The renewed push to end remote work comes as more CEOs openly acknowledge their disdain for the model, arguing that productivity, collaboration and employee engagement all suffer without the office.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/90percent-of-companies-say-theyll-return-to-the-office-by-the-end-of-2024.html

    LOL@ enjoy having to get dressed and commute again, peasants.

    1. Let’s hope the peasants call their bluff. Good workers are always and forever the scarce commodity. Control-freak CEOs are a dime a dozen.

      1. If good workers are as scarce as you say, then the vast majority of all workers are bad workers, which includes those who work at home (or want to work at home). It’s worth losing a couple “scarce” good work-at-homers in order to easily jettison dozens of bad work-at-homers.

        It won’t be a bluff if ALL the CEOs do it.

        2. It’s worth losing a couple “scarce” good work-at-homers in order to easily jettison dozens of bad work-at-homers.

          You seem to be saying that companies have trouble distinguishing good from bad workers. And I would tend to agree. But you realize your logic has been applied through countless employment cycles irrespective of WFH status. Companies are always going through rounds of layoffs in the name of streamlining, improving efficiency, etc., and throwing out the babies with the bath water in the process. Then they wind up having to re-hire the good employees as consultants at twice the pay.

          It won’t be a bluff if ALL the CEOs do it.

          Power-trip CEOs always get a demented satisfaction from firing people. But they can’t do too much of that, otherwise they’ll have nothing left to be CEO of.

          3. “re-hire the good employees as consultants at twice the pay.”

            This is how you make good money. And all from home!

      2. I love this topic because people will ALWAYS want to argue about it, and that in my current position working from home isn’t an option.

        My only experience with it was as a federal contractor, never in the private sector. Contractors were required to be on site (this was all pre-scamdemic) while the fat lazy GS feds sat at home a few days a week doing nothing.

      3. Good workers are always and forever the scarce commodity. Control-freak CEOs are a dime a dozen.

        Get back to the office, pretend worker.

    2. Speaking of which, I went back and looked at my last contract and it looks like you all were right, I couldn’t find anything in there that seemed to prevent double dipping. Maybe I was thinking of my last FTE job (where they were more interested in monopolizing you 24/7).

    3. “A whopping 90% of companies plan to implement return-to-office policies by the end of 2024

      A whopping 50% of these wfh parasites could be fired and the companies wouldn’t even miss them.

        1. I made more money in performance bonuses working “from home” than when I was in “the office”. I was an early riser, and not having to commute gave me extra time to work. Not the same for everyone, I’m sure. I liked my work.

          1. Elon didn’t eliminate only deadweight; he eliminated 75% of Twitter/X’s product line, so to speak. For all other companies, I’ll guess that the figure is 25-30% deadweight.

      2. A whopping 50% of these wfh parasites could be fired and the companies wouldn’t even miss them.

        Half the clowns on construction sites are just pissing in bottles and doing crap work, according to the HBB.

  11. “A whopping 90% of companies plan to implement return-to-office policies by the end of 2024, according to an Aug. report from Resume Builder, which surveyed 1,000 company leaders. Nearly 30% say their company will threaten to fire employees who don’t comply with in-office requirements.“

    \\

    – So, what happens to all of those employees WFH in the hinterlands? Boy oh Boise! House prices could take a beating. Moving from an expensive rural house at 3% back to an expensive house in a blue city hellhole at 7%. Is that even possible? Will anyone do it? Without a major recession, I think employees still have the upper hand. Let’s see what happens. Should be interesting. 🍺. 🍿

      1. The guy from Mumbai will start at 10% of the salary. If they can work from home in Boise, why can’t they work from home in Mumbai?

        1. If they can work from home in Boise, why can’t they work from home in Mumbai

          I’d say a quarter of my work time is spent correcting stuff done by foreign contractors.

          If the folks in Mumbai were so great, they’d live in America. Lots of foreigners in America kick arse as their jobs. They live in America. Because why live in Asia if you can leave?

    2. Without a major recession, I think employees still have the upper hand. Let’s see what happens. Should be interesting.

      It’ll come soon enough. Took only a year of Fed FFR at 5% last time to crash the whole economy, I doubt this time will be any different. Nothing much pencils out anymore once borrowing costs exceed revenues, and that’s true from Joe Sixpack all the way up to the WeWorks of the world.

  12. homeowners’ personal balance sheets are much stronger today than they were 15 years ago

    Credit card debt levels and delinquencies would indicate otherwise.

    2. CNBC (9/11/2023):

      “American consumers are worried about access to credit amid persistently higher interest rates and tighter standards at banks, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.

      Respondents indicating that the ability to get loans, credit cards and mortgages is harder now than it was a year ago rose to nearly 60%, the highest level in a data series that goes back to June 2013. The results were part of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations for August.

      Fears of credit access have been rising steadily since early 2022, around the same time that the Fed began raising interest rates. Since March of last year, the central bank has hiked its key borrowing rate 11 times totaling 5.25 percentage points as it seeks to tame inflation.”

      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/credit-crunch-worries-at-10-year-plus-high-new-york-fed-survey-says.html

      Much stronger?

      People are carrying balances from month to month paying for food and gas.

      “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

      2. And I also think there’s an entrenched belief that as long as they can keep floating by whatever means necessary the government will eventually be there to bail them out.

    3. Of those people living on the financial edge, how many are homeowners and how many are renters? Anyone who bought a home pre-pandemic and kept their job is flying high (but not too close to the sun). Even better if they refi-d into a low fixed interest rate when rates were rock-bottom.

      1. Those 2018 and before folks are the ones who, after they lose their jobs, will eventually have to sell and cash out awhile they still have equity. The ones who bought during the height of the pandemic will just walk away.

        1. The homes where I’m renting were purchased in 2015-2017 for around $350K for 2800sf. There are two listed for around $575K now. Even if they sell for $525K, it’s still up pretty big. The newer ones are selling for $700K to $1M, but they’re bigger and nicer.

    4. homeowners’ personal balance sheets are much stronger today than they were 15 years ago

      My net worth is at its highest ever. But that doesn’t mean I’m gonna raid my savings to go out and splurge $50K on a new car.

  13. But but but Yer are missing out on 5-10 gains next year

    “Higher mortgage rates — currently averaging 7%, up from 6% a year ago and 3% in 2021 — drive up monthly payments and dampen competition as many would-be buyers abandon the market and others become choosier ‘If you’re going to pay 30% more this year than you were going to a year ago, you’re going to be a little more picky,’ said John L. Scott agent Jon Bye, based in Kent.”

    1. electrified road

      I used to take one of those for my daily ride. It was called the Erie Lackawanna. Shard vehicle too.

      What will people think of next?

    2. Yeah, right. In a world where electrical power generation has been deliberately atrophied and you are told to freeze in the winter and swelter in the summer because reasons, there will be free electricity built into the roads for the cars. Uh huh, sure.

  15. New Mexico Governor takes 2nd Amendment and claim she can do so under Emergency Powers.
    This has always been the scheme to declare emergencies to take all freedoms and rights and constitutional protections .
    Climate Change Emergency
    Covid global panademic emergency
    Gun emergencies
    The Powers that be had to have a way of taking all freedoms and rights from populations, so “emergencies” were pre-planned to override human rights.
    Transfer the power to UN by governments signing Treaties that UN dictate global response to Climate and Panademic emergencies, that supersedes all rights.
    I don’t remember that this government was set up that there would be any exception to the constitutional protections and the amendments.
    Call constant emergencies, faked or not, for a power grab.
    Than once you have totally enslaved the populations of the World, under One World Order Global emergencies, mandated vaccines, lockdowns etc., you will own nothing and eat bugs , you have succeeded in a new Dictorship with no return to freedoms.
    Climate Change is never ending, pandemics never ending .
    And they won’t allow dispute to the emergency narratives or the solutions to the so called emergencies. The public has no say so in solutions to emergencies either.
    And look at the Covid solutions, and look at the so called Climate Change Solutions , that we are told “trust the science.”
    And trust the Science has killed 20 to 30 million so far, and injured a couple billion by the “safe and effective” vaccine in every arm campaign.
    The Powers that be offer nothing to.the populations of the World but a regressive return to enslavement and tyranny, by a small group wanting to rule the world.
    And these powers do not recognize any rights at all for humanity while they claim they are saving the world , or saving lives.
    Its like one big cancer inflitrated the systems and the cancer is killing the humanity host. Homicidal power mongers wanting the earth for themselves.

    1. This has to be a trial balloon, to see how the public reacts. They know it will get shot down by a judge.

      1. Keep pushing and it might not be the only thing getting “shot down” which of course is only in a game of Minecraft (hat tip to 4chan).

  16. “‘We simply don’t have enough inventory,”

    Where, oh where, have all the houses gone? Did space aliens come downnin the dark of night and take them away?

        1. December 21, 2021

          I would say that was before the border was flung wide open and the torrent of caravans, some starting as far away as Venezuela, began to arrive.

      2. U.S. Risks Decline And Stagnation Without Immigrants
        Stuart Anderson
        Senior Contributor
        I write about globalization, business, technology and immigration.
        Aug 23, 2023, 09:13am EDT

        The U.S. labor force will shrink, and America risks stagnation and declining living standards without immigrants, according to new research. Immigrants can boost the U.S. working-age population and offset America’s falling birthrate and the retirement of Baby Boomers. U.S. elected officials must decide whether to change immigration laws and policies to bolster America’s labor force and prevent decline.

        A Shrinking Labor Force?

        “Without continued net inflows of immigrants, the U.S. working-age population will shrink over the next two decades and by 2040, the United States will have over 6 million fewer working-age people than in 2022,” concluded a study by economist and University of North Florida Professor Madeline Zavodny for the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP). “Announcements of high-profile layoffs and concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) obscure America’s continuing need for additional workers at the top and bottom of the skill distribution. International migration is the only potential source of growth in the U.S. working-age population in the coming years.”
        …
        https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2023/08/23/us-risks-decline-and-stagnation-without-immigrants/?sh=73e53ac1250a

        1. America risks stagnation and declining living standards without immigrants

          Odd, Mayor Adams is singing a different tune.

          2. It’s a matter of degree and quality, for sure.

            It seems like our system is set up to make it easy for unskilled immigrants with no resources to enter illegally, and to make it very challenging for skilled, resourceful immigrants to enter legally.

        2. U.S. Risks Decline And Stagnation Without Immigrants

          Decline and stagnation don’t sound so bad to me. Aren’t the powers-that-be telling us to cut down on consumption and using natural resources? What better way than with population decline the natural way?

          1. It sounds good, until you get too old to work and you realize there is no next generation of workers coming up to keep the economy going.

  17. Ok, I just flashed this New Mexico Governor taking the 2nd amendment, claiming emergency powers, is exactly what the UN wants to do regarding Climate Change and Panademics.
    So, is New Mexico a test case for the New World Order intent to supersede rights by Goverment Treaties with UN under emergency declarations. Are they wanting to see what the blow back would be,or maybe a lawsuit ending up in high Court?
    Because if all rights are voided by “Declarations of Emergencies” by a unelected corrupt UN , than the UN is the World Government.
    How Joe Biden can sign UN Treaties by Executive power is also a.questionable act, that directly violates the 14th amendment.
    Florida has apparently banned mandated vaccines, so if UN Treaty mandates vaccines, who prevails?
    How would the High Court rule on State Power, by a Governor, to void a amendment, claiming “emergency powers”or UN Treaty powers to void all rights under emergency declarations.

    1. Colorado, saw you post after I posted mine about New Mexico taking 2nd amendment. .
      The New World Order and their government puppets usually break the law, than they see how much they get away with , before their overreach gets pulled back.
      IMHO, there would be few emergency conditions that would warrant the override of Constitution and rights.

      1. IMHO, there would be few emergency conditions that would warrant the override of Constitution and rights.

        I don’t think there are any. Recall that Joetato’s Jab mandates for the private sector (OSHA and Federal Contractor mandates) were shot down, despite the “COVID state of emergency”.

        Anyway, they know this won’t fly for now. But this is how the left operates. They keep pushing until no one pushes back. Like with the whole same sex marriage nonsense, they kept pushing for decades until the Supremes finally folded.

        I believe this is their tactic with the 2A. Just keep pushing, keep building favorable public opinion and keep at it with the trial balloons. Eventually they get what they want. And a future SC stacked with leftists will rule that the 2A does not guarantee the citizens the right to bear arms. How the citizenry reacts to that remains to be seen.

        1. Colorado,
          I have been trying to think of a emergency that would supersede constitution.
          There are times marshal law is declared, or your ordered evacuated under emergency conditions, like in a fire or hurricane. These are usually short term situations. Sometimes government can order a house unsafe to live in and order owner to move out. There are emergencies that supersede individual rights, but we all know those situations.
          What if there was a Alien Invasion?

          1. What if there was a rigged election and the usurpers wanted to remain in power? That’s usually considered an emergency.

      1. Comes out in a South African Court that the Plizer contract for Covid vaccine disclosed they didnt know long term effect of vaccines. Governments made the Contract anyway, and than proceeded with the “safe and effective” campaign.
        Can a Private Pharmacy Company make a contract with government,on a expierment that they don’t know the long term results or safety, and than government claim they are” safe and effective.”
        IMHO, if Plizer said this vaccine is potentially unsafe, is that a valid contract and is it valid for government to make that contract.
        The basis of the contract is a direct violation of the Nuremberg codes, so to.me, both parties can’t make a unlawful contact, and both parties are liable.
        At the very least, disclosure should of been to public that vaccine is expiermental, never used on human technology, and long term safety is unknown.
        Actually they knew that vaccine technology was unsafe because of the animal studies , where all the animals died.
        There was a concerted effort to misrepresent these vaccines , informed consent to public, and both parties to contract are liable.
        A good faith vaccine Company would not be willing to conduct a Nuremberg expierment on billions. The traditional vaccine was a option to make, but they went with the big expierment instead, A expierment that was likely to fail because of what happened with the prior animal studies.
        How do you like your Government and vaccine Companies now .

        1. disclosure should of been to public that vaccine is expiermental

          Everyone (well almost everyone) here knew that from the get go.

        2. Comes out in a South African Court that the Plizer contract for Covid vaccine disclosed they didn’t know long term effect of vaccines.

          When I told friends and relatives that this was one of the reasons I refused the jab, all I got for my trouble were a lot of rolled eyes. Bottom line: they were all terrified and thought they would die if not jabbed. Oh well.

  18. https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1701220743193743509
    Housing Bubble Disrespecter🏡🫧🚫 @NipseyHoussle

    What is wild is when investor purchases were many, prices SKY ROCKETED

    When they were lower, prices tumbled

    It’s almost like fixing the housing “shortage” is just a matter of getting investors away from buying existing dwellings to flip/hold and instead push them into new construction investments

    7:06 AM · Sep 11, 2023 · 13.3K Views

    \\

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1701034387184263330
    Housing Bubble Disrespecter🏡🫧🚫 @NipseyHoussle

    US housing market this winter

    [video clip]

    From
    Tersoo Adorowa 👑🇳🇬🇱🇷
    6:46 PM · Sep 10, 2023 · 51.7K Views

    \\

    🙂

  19. Does anyone have any theories on what could make one’s mortgage payments soar from $800 a month to $3,500 a month?

    1. ORDER TO VACATE
      I’m being forced out of my family home after repayments soared to $3,500 a month – I’m fighting for my grandfather
      Rachel Dobkin
      Published: 7:25 ET, Sep 9 2023
      Updated: 7:26 ET, Sep 9 2023
      A HOMEOWNER has been fighting police orders to leave her house that was in her family for generations after her mortgage payments spiked to $3,500 a month.

      Christiana Powell, from the Chicago neighborhood of Woodlawn, Illinois, has refused to move out of her home after she was given a sheriff’s order to vacate the property.

      “We can’t stay quiet about this,” Powell told reporters outside her home on Friday, the day she was set to be evicted.

      “This is about the multitude of people that have been suffering all this time — people who have already lost their homes, people who are in position to lose their homes, people who are starting into the position, and they’re fighting for their homes,” she said.

      In 2016, Powell’s house went into foreclosure after her mortgage rate soared from $800 a month to $3,500, the Hyde Park Herald reports.

      Her taxes were also rising at the time as properties in her neighborhood increased in value, according to the outlet.
      …
      https://www.the-sun.com/news/9023472/eviction-mortage-increase/

      1. her house that was in her family for generations

        House bought in 1950. It must have been paid off, so her situation had to be cash-out refis. Here’s a scenario: Say she started with a paid-off house and did a small cash-out refi to bring the mortgage to $800. Later on she did a much bigger cash-out refi but didn’t pay the new amount. After losing court cases, the court ordered a refi from FHA to conventional loan, including required back pay of the payments she missed. Depending on how much cash she spent and the interest rate, that would conceivably quadruple the house payment.

        The news article, of course, provides no information on her exact situation. All they focus on is her Black father going through a white lawyer to buy the house, and him teaching her the value of owning property. Yeah, looks like she didn’t learn her lesson, did she.

      1. I’d say higher interest rates if it were Canada, but the US normally does fixed rate mortgages. Those subprime adjustable rate time bombs went out of fashion after the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009.

        ‘Tis a puzzlement!

        1. ‘She contends that the conversion of her loan from an FHA loan to a conventional loan, which resulted in the ballooning payments, was done without her consent or knowledge. After losing her case in local courts, she filed a federal lawsuit against her mortgage provider, US Bank, alleging fraud. A federal judge recently returned a ruling against her lawsuit, citing a lack of jurisdiction. But Powell has appealed it, representing herself pro se because, for lack of funds, she is no longer able to pay an attorney.’

  20. CNBC (9/11/2023):

    “The Food and Drug Administration on Monday approved updated Covid vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, putting the shots on track to reach Americans within days as U.S. hospitalizations from the virus rise.

    The new vaccines, which target the omicron variant XBB.1.5, are approved for people 12 and older and are authorized under emergency use for children 6 months through 11 years old, according to an FDA release.

    The updated vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna won’t be available to Americans just yet.

    A CDC advisory panel is scheduled to meet Tuesday to vote on a recommendation on the use of those jabs. After the CDC director signs off on those recommendations, the shots can be administered at pharmacies, health clinics and other vaccine distribution sites.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/covid-vaccines-fda-approves-new-shots-from-pfizer-moderna.html

    1. I’m expecting “Dr. Shrieksalot” to reprise his fear mongering role on the local nightly news very soon. He probably misses the stuffed brown envelopes.

  21. Newsom DENIES, DENIES, DENIES On Covid Lockdowns, Will BOW DOWN To Kamala For Prez
    The Hill
    5 hours ago

    Briahna Joy Gray and Robby Soave discuss Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-Calif.) response to his covid-19 lockdown decisions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-eGq679jbU

    11:21. “We would have done everything differently.”

    1. I was beginning to think that Gruesome might be too damaged goods to run, but then again they were able to get Joetato “elected”.

    2. Everything, like closing hospitals to people who would later die needing surgery, etc? What was the death toll from closing hospitals Gavin? Oh, right, we can send the dancing cowgirls many billion$ but we haven’t spent a penny looking at the death toll from something as simple as the hospital murders. I’ll go out on a limb and say in yer state it was thousands Gavin. And what kind of wine were you savoring the day you decided to let them die? I’d bet you don’t even remember.

    3. “We would have done everything differently.”

      Be that as it may, #Nuremberg 2.0 is going to hold you accountable for everything you globalist scum Quislings imposed on the population.

  22. ‘About 1,200 new listings came online last month, compared to 1,333 the month before’

    Harry Potter loves igloo land.

  23. Want a reasonable offer? Ask a reasonable price! I’m feeling really bad for all those currently listing, trying to sell 100% over 2020-21 purchase prices, and now selling and seeking “all reasonable offers”. Maybe they’ll get one if they ask for a reasonable price!

  24. “He told me I will pay you back 12 per cent interest a year, and at the moment, whatever I’m earning, I would get double than that,” she said. “So I just trust him.”

    12% Yogita, that’s kinda aggressive, no? I guess you only live once.

  25. At this point, who in their right mind would think Old Joe is making any decisions to guide this country?

  26. ‘another example of a local real estate market pressured by rising interest rates and a supply glut’

    But this is an island? You can see water. Wa happened to my shortage?

    The most expensive residential real estate on the planet not that long ago, and had been for many years. It may still be the most expensive. But they just got a biblical flood and the Chicoms had to open a dam upstream and it blewout. There’s video of it all around.

  27. ‘Qiang, who is from China’s southwest, recently graduated in eldercare – a relevant skill in a rapidly ageing country. But he is no longer keen on putting his degree to use. ‘It pays too little, and the hours are long,’ he said. ‘You need to be on standby 24 hours a day and do night shifts. When on probation, the salary is only 1,500 to 2,000 yuan (S$279 to S$372),’ he said. ‘Even when you are confirmed, you get paid at most 3,000 yuan (S$558)’

    So one can imagine what the quality of care will be. And this whole country is right on the edge of having one to four children solely responsible for the care of four parents, due to various converging reasons.

  30. So, they can literally have little to nothing invested in the purchase.’”

    So FBs with no skin in the game will have no qualms about walking away from their underwater shacks.

  34. Nancy practices her stand-up routine …

    “The needs that our city has right now really call for me to stay another term,” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who represents the 11th Congressional District that includes San Francisco, said in early September announcing her bid for re-election.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/d397c0ad-41fe-3ebe-bdc8-d316967a10a4/here-s-what-s-moving-into-a.html

    The “needs of the city” happened on her watch so naturally she should be the best one to stick around to address these needs.

    1. “The needs that our city has right now really call for me to stay another term,” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who represents the 11th Congressional District that includes San Francisco, said in early September announcing her bid for re-election.

      The savior!

    1. DOW FUTURES -0.11%
      S&P 500 FUTURES -0.20%
      NASDAQ 100 FUTURES -0.22%

      JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he wouldn’t be ‘a big buyer of a bank’ and sounds the alarm on the economy
      Filip De Mott
      Sep 11, 2023, 12:48 PM PDT
      JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon speaks at the North America’s Building Trades Unions (NABTU) 2019 legislative conference in Washington. Jeenah Moon/Reuters

      – Jamie Dimon criticized the proposed capital rules on lenders as a downside for economic growth.

      – The JPMorgan CEO also cited other pressures, such as fiscal deficits and monetary policy.

      – “To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a booming environment for years, is a huge mistake”
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-bank-stocks-fed-capital-rules-economic-outlook-2023-9

    2. Bond Report
      Treasury yields finish higher after BOJ’s Ueda signals possible end to negative rates
      Last Updated: Sept. 11, 2023 at 4:00 p.m. ET
      First Published: Sept. 11, 2023 at 6:28 a.m. ET
      By Vivien Lou Chen and
      Jamie Chisholm

      Two- through 30-year Treasury yields end slightly higher on Monday after Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda hinted at a possible conclusion to negative interest-rate policy.

      What happened

      – The yield on the 2-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD02Y rose 1.1 basis points to 4.993% from 4.982% on Friday. The 2-year yield is up five of the past six trading days, according to 3 p.m. Eastern time figures from Dow Jones Market Data. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

      – The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y advanced 3 basis points to 4.287% from 4.257% on Friday. The 10-year rate is up four of the past six sessions.

      – The yield on the 30-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD30Y climbed 4.6 basis points to 4.376% from 4.330% on Friday.

      What drove markets

      U.S. yields mostly advanced on Monday after the Bank of Japan suggested it may soon end its negative interest-rate stance.

      Ten-year JGB yields BX:TMBMKJP-10Y rose above 0.7% to their highest since at least 2014, nudging up equivalent U.S. and European yields. The moves came after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told the Yomiuri newspaper over the weekend that by the end of 2023, the central bank should have an idea about whether its decade of easy monetary policy can come to a conclusion.
      Advertisement

      “Once we’re convinced Japan will see sustained rises in inflation accompanied by wage growth, there are various options we can take,” Ueda said in an interview. “If we judge that Japan can achieve its inflation target even after ending negative rates, we’ll do so.”

      Investors are also contemplating the prospects for U.S. monetary policy ahead of August’s consumer-price index due Wednesday and a retail sales report for the same month on Thursday, which may influence the thinking of Federal Reserve policy makers ahead of their Sept. 19-20 meeting.

      Markets are pricing in a 93% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.50% next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike to a range of 5.5%-5.75% at the subsequent meeting in November is priced at 42.6%.

      What analysts are saying

      “If last week was a bit light on important data, you can’t say the same about this week’s high-impact extravaganza that will occur in a Fed blackout period as next week’s FOMC lurks in the wings,” said strategist Jim Reid and others at Deutsche Bank.

      “U.S. CPI (Wednesday) will be the obvious standout but U.S. PPI and retail sales (Thursday) are nearly as important given how some of the PPI subcomponents feed into the Fed’s preferred core PCE, and for retail sales, we’ll see how much momentum has been lost after a phenomenally strong July print,” the Deutsche Bank team wrote in a note.
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-rise-as-inflation-data-looms-as-japanese-yields-reach-highest-since-2014-6b62ec42

    3. DOW FUTURES -0.19%
      S&P 500 FUTURES -0.27%
      NASDAQ 100 FUTURES -0.31%

      Ballooning US deficit will keep bond yields high, even as inflation cools, market veteran says
      Filip De Mott
      Sep 11, 2023, 7:29 AM PDT
      The Capitol building is seen through the American flags in Washington DC on October 20, 2022.
      The Capitol building is seen through the American flags in Washington DC on October 20, 2022. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images

      – Despite cooling inflation, a growing US deficit will force yields to stay elevated, Ed Yardeni wrote.

      – The deficit has widened as tax revenue fell, but costs of federal programs have risen rapidly.

      – The 10-year Treasury yield is likely to remain elevated at around 4.25%-4.5%.

      Despite declining inflation, the size of the US federal deficit will force bond markets to keep yields high, Ed Yardeni wrote on Monday.

      That’s as the Treasury Department will be pressured to attract T-bill buyers in order to offset the government’s overspending, which is headed for $2 trillion for fiscal year 2023.

      “That’s the highest ever excluding during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite Biden’s claim that his administration has implemented measures to slash the deficit,” Yardeni wrote.

      So, even as inflation heads towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate, the 10-year Treasury bond is likely to remain elevated at around 4.25%-4.50%, the market veteran said.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-deficit-treasury-bond-yields-high-ed-yardeni-inflation-fed-2023-9

  36. The question is what might open the supply spigot? A housing market with high valuations, high cost to borrow, an affordability crisis, and a dearth of supply seems unsustainable. Either mortgage rates will decline, sellers will capitulate, and some unforeseen event will impact the current paralysis. Given the uneven nature of real estate economics geographically, an unfolding will be uneven. Given the Bay area median prices decline peak trough (May 22 – Jan 23) was +/-20%, a 30% decline does not seem unreasonable in over-bought regional markets. Unfortunately, both the industry and governments are too shortsighted to understand the universal benefits of a due shake-out. Let’s get it behind us. Kicking the proverbial can down the road makes the imminent reckoning worse. That will feed into and balloon the social fisures triggered by the last crisis.

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