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You Can’t Come Back From This, It’s A Life Sentence, We’re All Stuck

A report from Vail Daily. “Mark Weinreich, a broker associate with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Colorado Properties’ Beaver Creek in the Villa Montane office, notes that for the resort and luxury market, there are more choices. Good properties priced to fair market value are still selling quickly. ‘By all indications, we have likely reached the height of the market,’ Weinreich said. ‘That being said, homes that are priced to market value based on condition, features, and location are still commanding top dollar. Given the demand, there is some opportunity for sellers to explore the market — depending on their sense of urgency — and willingness to let buyers sniff it out. If it’s not priced right, homes will sit. Sellers that aren’t getting sales quickly are most likely overpriced. Buyers aren’t willing to overpay.'”

KTVZ in Oregon. “In isolation, a $58,000 drop in Bend’s median home sales price last month sounds pretty dramatic. But coming down from the July record of $800,000 to a similar price as seen last spring, and the volatility seen amid factors from rising interest rates to the continued supply crunch is more understandable. The 7.25% drop puts Bend’s August median price at $742,000, a figure ‘in line with median sale prices seen in mid-2022,’ noted Redmond appraiser Donnie Montagner. Redmond’s median home sales price, by contrast, has been fairly stable, up just $5,000, to $505,000 in August, still below the record sales price of a year ago, at $542,000.”

“The city’s inventory of single-family homes was up a bit, to 2.8 months, which is still the highest figure in at least three years. Montagner said Redmond’s home sales inventory in the $600,000 to $650,000 price range has been increasing and currently stands at over eight months. The inventory of homes a bit cheaper ($500,000-$550,000) or more costly than that ($750,000-$800,000) ranges from four to six months, he noted.”

NBC Bay Area in California. “The Bay Area tends to lead the country when it comes to high housing prices, but new numbers show the region also leads in price drops. According to the latest numbers from Go Banking Rates, the average home price for Palo Alto was down nearly $500,000 from this time last year. In Mountain View, prices were down $250,000. In San Francisco, prices were down more than $200,000.”

From TV Line. “Wanna bet someone’s gonna try to pin this on Jan? TVLine has confirmed that the iconic and massively renovated Brady Bunch house — which HGTV put on the market last May — ended up selling for $3.2 million. Not only is that $2.3 million less than the $5.5 million listing price, but it’s $300K shy of the $3.5 million HGTV paid for it in 2018. HGTV poured a staggering $1.9 million into the North Hollywood, Calif., property in an effort to recreate some of the series’ iconic interiors, including the floating staircase, the burnt orange-and-avocado green kitchen and the kids’ Jack-and-Jill bathroom.”

“As to why HGTV ended up taking such a loss on the pop culture time capsule, Compass’ Danny Brown, the listing agent on the property, tells TVLine, ‘We felt the property was worth about $3-$3.5 million and that’s exactly where it landed; there are no intellectual property rights that are included in the sale. HGTV spent about $5.5 million purchasing and gutting the house which is why we listed it at $5.5 million, even though we knew it was an aspirational list price.'”

The Union Tribune in California. “San Diego County rents have dropped two months in a row and it’s been a long time since that’s happened. The biggest drops have occurred where prices went up the most over the past few years — like University City and several North County cities. Increased vacancy rates mean renters now can opt to move rather than face an increase for renewing. San Diego County is not alone in rent reductions, with much of the nation experiencing slowdowns. Joshua Ohl, a managing analyst at CoStar, said the rental market is in correction territory after explosive growth during the pandemic. ‘There’s a course correction on rent growth across the market in many instances,’ he said. ‘Some of those areas had 20 percent rent growth (annually) and this is a market correction.'”

The Austin Monitor in Texas. “A combination of softer demand by renters and new multifamily apartment units completing construction has caused some lowering of rents in the Austin market, according to members of the Austin Apartment Association. At a series of panel discussions last week, the appearance of ‘negative rent growth’ after years of upward movement was a topic of much discussion. With construction of new communities starting to catch up to the strong demand surge that began five years ago, association members said the market is likely to see flat or falling rents in the years to come.”

“‘Demand has been pretty muted now for really about a year and a half, maybe a little more than that, and so the new construction activity combined with that needed demand has really brought occupancy back down not only to a normal level before the run-up in 2021, but actually to below where they were going into the pandemic,’ said Jordan Brooks, senior market analyst with ALN Apartment Data.”

From D Magazine. “‘What’s going to happen to billions of dollars of loans and properties as high interest rates continue to wreak economic havoc?’ is among the biggest question marks for the multifamily industry—especially in Texas, which has become one of the hottest markets in the country. Multifamily has been considered the darling of commercial real estate since the end of the Global Financial Crisis and is often thought to be a lower-risk investment among real estate asset types. Investors in hot markets like Texas have bid up prices for years: I’ve seen the same properties go from selling at 7 caps to 3 caps within a five-year stretch. Covid pushed prices even higher. Floating-rate debt allowed buyers to compete, with higher leverage and historically low interest rates.”

“‘Extend and pretend’ has become the most popular phrase used in these types of market conditions. In almost all of these cases, borrowers are going to need additional capital, meaning they’ll have to go back to their investors or find it elsewhere. Private equity investors are therefore providing ‘rescue capital’ or preferred equity, structured as a loan with its own high interest rates: preferred equity is currently in the mid-teens. But properties can only support so much debt and preferred equity payments, and often it’s the common equity shareholders who will be left empty-handed as the last in line after the lender and preferred equity holders. In other situations, we’re starting to see some sponsors sell their general partner position at a loss to new equity, relinquishing any potential fees or or carried interest they’d normally be eligible for.”

“Last, but not least, many sponsors are going to need a broker. For borrowers facing insurmountable challenges with underwater properties and impending maturities, selling, even at a loss, is going to be the best option.”

From Mansion Global. “Developers are racing to build more luxury rental apartments in South Florida, threatening to create a glut at the higher end of the market despite the stream of affluent new residents still pouring in. The Miami metropolitan area, which consists of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, has more units under construction as a share of inventory than any other major market in the country, according to real-estate data firm CoStar Group. About 90% of all the new apartment units coming to the market are considered higher end, or rent for $2,261 a month or more, CoStar said. The bulk of that product is expected to be delivered in 2024.”

“As more luxury units become available, they are taking longer to rent. At the high end in South Florida, vacancies are around 8.5%, CoStar said. The luxury sector’s vacancy rate will rise to 11% over the next two years, according to a forecast from Juan Arias, CoStar’s director of market analytics in South Florida. Developers feel pressure to rent units quickly because their brand-new properties are empty and many tenants don’t want to live in ghost buildings. Many of these new buildings are offering one or two free months. Other concessions include smaller deposits, which in some cases have been slashed by more than 80%. ‘A lot of that is not because you can’t rent them—it’s because you need to rent fast,’ said Eli Beracha, director of the Hollo School of Real Estate at Florida International University.”

The Aldergrove Star in Canada. “‘Many buyers are in ‘watchful waiting’ mode as they hold off on decisions in anticipating of potential further rate changes,’ said Narinder Bains, chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. In Langley, the benchmark price for a single-family detached home was almost unchanged from a year ago, or a month ago. After swings in price up and down, the benchmark remains at $1.638 million, up 0.9 per cent from a year ago, and just 0.5 per cent from July. Across the Fraser Valley, the average price for a detached home has swung back and forth wildly over the last three years.”

“After a brief dip in the first few months of the pandemic, the price of housing began a screaming upward climb, with the typical Fraser Valley house price rising from just over $1 million to a height of $1.9 million by late 2021. In the spring of 2022, with interest rates rising and inflation pressuring Canadians, the bottom fell out of housing, with prices for houses losing most of their early-pandemic gains, bottoming out around $1.3 million. A final swing, as interest rate hikes were paused this year, sent prices back up to around $1.6 million, before retreating slightly again. A decade ago, houses in the Fraser Valley were still routinely selling for just over $600,000.”

The Journal in Ireland. “The first affordable housing purchase scheme in Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien’s constituency has been delayed by at least a year, with the delays causing stress and worry for applicants. The Dun Emer housing scheme in Lusk, Co Dublin was initially due to be fully completed in October 2022, but some residents have been told it will be October this year before they will be able to move in. ‘I wish I never applied for the scheme,’ one person told The Journal. ‘I thought we were the luckiest people ever to get this. And I couldn’t believe my luck that we were selected… and to be able to afford something in Dublin. I was ecstatic. I thought it was the best thing that happened to me. But it has caused so much stress and anxiety and everything is just constant worry.'”

ERR in Estonia. “Anyone moving around Tallinn who happens to pass by the storage lot of construction equipment and tool rental company Cramo on Tähetorni tänav may notice that the lot is currently filled with a considerable number of construction containers. Weigh this up against recent news about the downturn in the construction sector and one may get the impression that work at construction sites has halted altogether. Cramo Estonia CEO Remo Holsmer says that this year is indeed much harder than previous years, but the situation can’t be called very bad yet either.”

“‘Our construction market hasn’t yet reached the state seen in Finland, for example, where the market is essentially frozen, businesses have gone bankrupt and the state is allocating public funds to rescue the sector,’ he continued. ‘Things have also gotten more difficult in Sweden, and since we as a state are rather closely connected with our closest neighbors, then it’s likely there are more difficult times ahead for the construction sector in Estonia as well.'”

From Reuters. “The crisis facing Germany’s residential construction sector, triggered by high credit and material costs, intensified in August, with the number of companies reporting cancelled projects at a new high, according to a survey published on Tuesday. One in five companies – 20.7% – reported cancelled projects in August, up from 18.9% the previous month, according to the Munich-based Ifo economic institute. ‘Residential construction cancellations are piling up to a new high. We haven’t seen anything comparable to this since the survey began in 1991,’ said Ifo head of surveys Klaus Wohlrabe.”

“An increasing number of firms are facing difficulties, with 44.2% of companies reporting a lack of orders in August, versus 13.8% at the same time last year, said Ifo. ‘Some businesses are already struggling to keep their heads above water,’ said Wohlrabe, adding that nearly 12% of companies in the sector are reporting that they face financing difficulties, the highest proportion in more than 30 years. A majority of companies fear further declines in business in the coming six months, according to Ifo. ‘The uncertainty in the market is huge,’ said Wohlrabe.”

News.com.au in Australia. “Seventy-seven Melbourne apartment owners couldn’t have imagined that the innocuous ping of a new email landing in their inboxes would herald the disaster that would leave many of them on the brink of financial ruin. ‘IMPORTANT,’ said the email – sent by their strata firm in March 2020 – which in hindsight was not an exaggeration. Lot owners located in the inner suburb of West Footscray learned that combustible cladding had been installed on their four-storey building complex, which meant a barbecue or cigarette on the balcony could turn the block into a deadly inferno. When the block was built, this type of cladding was not illegal. This turned out to be the first of many serious defects which came to light in the years after residents moved into the block from 2014.”

“Several independent building reports found the builder, Shangri-La Construction, had carried out inadequate waterproofing, causing some residents to experience waterfalls in their lounge rooms, resulting in rampant black mould and rendering some properties too dangerous to live in. Residents had begun a lawsuit against Shangri-La Construction when the building company went into liquidation at the end of March. Residents at the West Footscray block dread receiving their quarterly strata fees, which has spiralled to be about $10,000 a year, more than people’s mortgages in some cases, and is expected to take 15 years to pay off due to the many defects. This has left apartment owners with no way to recover the money needed to carry out the rectification works, leaving them to foot the $4.5 million bill themselves.”

“‘You can’t come back from this, it’s a life sentence,’ 32-year-old Andrew John, one of the residents, told news.com.au. ‘There’s people who are retiring, people with disabilities, we’re all stuck. You walk past people here, no one smiles, no one talks to you. We’re at our wit’s end.'”

South China Morning Post.”After several years of fruitless attempts to declare bankruptcy, Crystal Chen’s final days were marred by a major regret – that her family might receive harassing phone calls from creditors after her death. Before succumbing to an illness last month at the age of 38, Chen filed for bankruptcy protection in two courts in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, where she lived. The hope was that she would be able to wipe out 1.9 million yuan (US$260,000) worth of debt that she accumulated due to a failed investment.”

“Both courts rejected her request on the grounds that the country lacks a ‘personal bankruptcy statute,’ said her lawyer, Alice Luo. While China has turned from a centrally planned system into a market economy through decades of reform – including a law on enterprise bankruptcy enforced in 2007 to help troubled companies recover from crippling debt – there is no such legislation for individuals such as Chen who are unable to pay off their debts. Shenzhen, the metropolis located a 130km (81-mile) drive from Guangzhou, is the only place in all of mainland China where local residents can file for personal bankruptcy, as a pilot scheme was launched there in March 2021.”

“But now, with her death, what she leaves behind will be used to repay the debt, and her family could be persecuted for the unpaid sum, as a traditional belief that ‘the son must pay his father’s debt’ still prevails in Chinese society, Luo said. Raymond Zheng, who owns a piling company in Guangzhou that has amassed considerable debt amid the country’s ongoing property crisis, is among those who are being dragged down by their businesses.”

“‘What I want most now is for my company to go bankrupt, and I even hired a bankruptcy law firm for this purpose, but the court refused to accept my application,’ he said, adding that failing to declare bankruptcy ‘makes my debts keep snowballing.’ Feeling like he was falling into a ‘bottomless abyss,’ Zheng’s personal credit rating also took a big hit as he defaulted on payments to third parties. Now he is restricted from borrowing money, using a credit card or even buying a plane ticket, under China’s credit system.”

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This Post Has 92 Comments

  1. ‘Redmond’s home sales inventory in the $600,000 to $650,000 price range has been increasing and currently stands at over eight months’

    Oh dear…

    ‘Investors in hot markets like Texas have bid up prices for years: I’ve seen the same properties go from selling at 7 caps to 3 caps within a five-year stretch. Covid pushed prices even higher’

    Hurrah! Higher rents forevah!!

    ‘For borrowers facing insurmountable challenges with underwater properties and impending maturities, selling, even at a loss, is going to be the best option’

    Wa!?

    1. These high desert cities on the backside of the Cascades and Sierras like Redmond, Bend, Reno, Carson City, are so completely out of whack. The equity rich buyers fleeing Cali have blown affordability out of the water. For the most part, no way people who have grown up here can afford it any more.

      1. You sure can. Brand new shipping container style modular “homes” being stacked as we write in Breckenridge Colorado. Housing for the work force so they can clean multi millionaires toilets this winter. I say poo-poo to those greedy bashtards. Pay a living wage? So 1970ish

  2. ‘Across the Fraser Valley, the average price for a detached home has swung back and forth wildly over the last three years’

    You guys are running a real mickey mouse operation up there.

  3. ‘The crisis facing Germany’s residential construction sector, triggered by high credit and material costs, intensified in August, with the number of companies reporting cancelled projects at a new high, according to a survey published on Tuesday. One in five companies – 20.7% – reported cancelled projects in August, up from 18.9% the previous month, according to the Munich-based Ifo economic institute. ‘Residential construction cancellations are piling up to a new high. We haven’t seen anything comparable to this since the survey began in 1991’

    Klaus, are you saying these German had that golden ticket in their hands, and they just walked away?

  5. Increased vacancy rates mean renters now can opt to move rather than face an increase for renewing. San Diego County is not alone in rent reductions, with much of the nation experiencing slowdowns.

    But…but I thought gouging renters was a surefire way to build effortless wealth.

    1. Not to worry, the WFH h8rzz here have assured us that we will all soon be marching zombie-like back into our sensory deprivation cubicles in big office buildings, as that is obviously the only environment in which productive work can take place.

      1. Nah, you will see some going back but with new tech tools it’s too good for the company and too good for the employee. Huge cost cost savings….I’m in building maintenance industry and the cost, not just lease, but security, breakroom supplies, disposables, checking chemicals maintenance staff, power is huge….less fuel burned…it’s a plus for everybody. The people bitching about it Typically know nothing about it, and it doesn’t even affect them and they still complain about it for some reason. Get of my lawn type!

      2. I think it will become more hybrid. Some companies will be strict at the office. I’m one of the lucky ones who WFH and nobody complains.

        1. Not sure what you mean by “hybrid.” That could mean

          1. Some in the office all the time and some never in the office (remote).
          2. Everybody in the office some of the time.

          The trend seems to be toward Door #2. That’s what Amazon is doing.

          1. #2 – Many job ads I see are hybrid 2-3 days a week in the office for experience and senior levels. Others are in office full time. I rarely see remote anymore, maybe 10%, but always manager or above. Inexperienced are all in office. These are for skilled professions. As far as helpdesks or call centers, they have been moving towards WFH for years now. It saves them a lot of money and they can always monitor the worker based on how much time they’re on the phone and how many calls they take per day.

  9. Yesterday saw a couple of bank listings go on the market in the areas I watch. It’s been a while. We’ll see if it’s the trickle before the flood….which we know it will be.

  10. A reader sent these in:

    I am willing to assume the Presidency for $1 a year.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1701087387760443467

    MOAR BIDEN BEING OLDE AS DIRT: I’M JUST FOLLOWING MY ORDERS HERE…I DON’T KNOW ABOUT YOU, BUT I AM GOING TO GO TO BED

    https://twitter.com/iBankCoin4tw/status/1701035036823192001

    The debt-to-income ratio for all homebuyers in the US just hit 40% for the first time in history. Even in the 2008 financial crisis, this ratio peaked at ~39%. This comes as total household debt just hit a record $17.1 trillion and credit card debt crossed $1 trillion for the first time ever. Consumers are borrowing at a record pace all while savings are declining and rates are rising. What’s the long-term plan here?

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1700541997570760973

    Crazy stat: 50% of Americans are priced out of the car market. Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist of Cox Automotive, breaks it down in < 45 seconds: https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1700851375964373348

    I have two pickup trucks both of which are over 20 years old. Equivalent replacements would cost $130-$140,000 dollars. I’m not poor but at some point even I have to shake my head at these ridiculous prices. So I just keep driving and fixing them.

    https://twitter.com/politiwars/status/1700859013288911134

    This is a map of AirBnB that are registered with the city.

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1700913981752574031

    From 2020 to 2023, an astonishing 80% of all dollars were printed, undermining the efforts of hardworking individuals trying to save. This kind of system manipulation is a blatant betrayal of the public’s trust.

    https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1700953290287055287

    Walked by this house in San Francisco today that was listed for sale for around $10MM. It’s appraisal value for property taxes is $300,607

    https://twitter.com/rohindhar/status/1701017273774018896

    The last 4 times the 10Y Minus 3M Treasury Yield Curve inverted, it led to the 1990s recession, the Dotcom Bust, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2020 Recession.

    https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1700961064521711772

    JPow says the Fed can’t hit its 2% “inflation” target until 2025. We call BS:
    *Runoff less than 1/5th of “pandemic” QE
    *”QT” roughly TWICE as slow as EU + Canada
    *Fed just “reinvested” $100B+ in USTs last month
    *$240B+ in bank bailouts (BTFP + OCE)
    *Refuses to sell illicit MBS

    https://twitter.com/FixTheFed/status/1699113043932704991

    Bankruptcies filings keep ramping up across the board (US, EZ, UK, AUS…) US monthly filings are now up to levels just shy of COVID highs and in-line with early 08 levels. Back then, HY OAS spreads were respectively more than double, and triple the current 3.7% level

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1701233942437740572

    This is profoundly dysfunctional.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1701281964689436900

    Always watch California. Unemployment there was 3.8% but has popped to 4.6%. The US unemployment rate hasn’t popped with it. Not yet. Up we go.

    https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1701350790265225483

    *PFIZER NOW RECOMMENDS HOURLY BOOSTERS; ‘LEAVE THE NEEDLE IN’ – CNBC

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1468673292005302274

    Like I said, some of my jokes are premonitions.

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1506426157738065921

    1. Crazy stat: 50% of Americans are priced out of the car market.

      What is the average new price now? $48K? That’s about $1,000 per month on 5 year loan, $750 on a SEVEN year loan.

      And from what I’m hearing from friends and acquaintances, auto parts are becoming harder to find and when you can find them they are crazy expensive.

      They won’t have to ban cars, the average Joe already can’t afford one.

      1. classic vintage Toyotas have largely disappeared here in N. CA. I’m referencing the pre-2000’s models.
        AND the mechanics that know how to work on them.

        I own several Toyotas, all made last century. (good for a laugh when said out loud!)
        However, there are pretty much only a handful of shops here in greater Sacramento area that I trust, and have the capability, to repair them.

        And now that labor rates are approaching $200/hr, which is the same as the dealer, the Average Guy in his loose fitting dungarees (Monty Capuletti) can no longer afford the repairs, and is getting a bit old anyway to be crawling around the vehicle.
        present self included.

        not to mention the scarcity of parts, as mentioned.

        I suppose I just got spoiled due to a plentiful supply at hand, either at the auto parts store, dealer, and/or salvage yards.

        Well, I’ve hijacked the housing thread. again.
        reparations are enroute, Ben.

        1. There is a youtube channel called The Car Wizard. It’s a guy who owns a large independent auto repair shop in Kansas. He had a recent video about the problem with parts.

          He used as an an example an auto parts store brake caliper one of his guys was installing, and the stupid thing leaked. IIRC they exchanged it for another one, which also leaked. So he had his guy disassemble it. Turns out it was a bad O ring. They replaced the O ring it and it worked. He was pretty cross about that.

          He also mentioned thatpart prices were way up, both for remanufactured and new stuff, like 100%+, and that parts are getting harder to find.

          1. Once you start replacing parts on a nice Honda or Toyota with non-OEM parts of dubious quality its reliability and resale value plunge.

          3. non-OEM parts

            As newer cars have more and more electronics and other tech this will be harder to do. You won’t be able to buy a replacement digital dashboard or a turbo at Autozone.

    2. “From 2020 to 2023, an astonishing 80% of all dollars were printed”

      CCP Flu the greatest FRAUD of my lifetime.

      1. I wrote a letter to 60 minutes explain the PPP program and all the fraud they wrote back they will look into it.Once the average person realizes what went on they’re gonna forget about everything else they’ve been pissed off about.

        I’ve got several friends that got well over $1,000,000 and didn’t need it their business was fine.You can look up any company on the small business administration website

        Federalpay ppp org You can put on the state and the name of the company and it will show you what they received.It’s mind blowing how much money so many companies got.

        1. I’m a tax CPA and can tell you the Employee Retention Credit was even worse. Almost $30 billion per month going out in checks and I bet more than half of it is fraudulent. People are creating fake companies to get the PPP and ERC money and disappearing. By the time the IRS figures it out in 5 years, if they even bother looking, those people will be long gone with millions of dollars.

          1. The IRS is already asking Congress to stop that program. So says Danielle Dimartino Booth. If the program is stopped, I wonder what that will do for layoffs.

          2. And $30 billion/month is obscene. I’d rather give the money to Ukraine. Better yet, even one month, $30 billion, is enough to build institutions for all the homeless drug addicts in California.

          3. I’d rather give the money to Ukraine.

            From one corrupt group to another!

            How about you consider simply not taking the money from me in the first place. It’s not your money.

          4. Giving it to Ukraine will only get more young Ukrainians killed and most of the money and weapons stolen. You need to face the facts that Ukraine is not going to win. Russia has almost 4x the population and the Western sanctions have failed. The only way Ukraine has a chance is if NATO gets involved, and that can escalate into nuclear war. Are you really ready to give your life up for a corrupt tinpot dictatorship. That’s right, elections have been canceled, all opposition parties banned along with independent media.

          6. “How about you consider simply not taking the money from me in the first place. It’s not your money.”

            “If you’ve got a business…you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.” —Barack Obama, fmr president

        2. Good for you. The whole PPP and ERC debacle is not talked about enough because not nearly enough people are outraged by it. To me this is equally as bad if not worse than all of the pandemic mandates and vaccine sham that are discussed here frequently. And I’m not one to rat anyone out, but with this stuff if I come across a fraudster I’ll whistle blow until the cows come home.

          1. Most people don’t know about it….I wouldn’t had known if a buddy had not told me and have me the ppp website. I’ve told many people and when they look up their own employer they hit the floor. It’s disgust how bad the was mismanaged.

          2. My CPA firm got over $8 million in PPP divided among roughly 65 partners. We were completely unaffected by the lockdowns as far as revenue and net income actually increased due to layoffs.

            I was wondering why the partners all bought expensive new cars in 2021.

          3. I was wondering why the partners all bought expensive new cars in 2021.

            They all got free cars, and the working people who got nothing have to pay even more for cars now because of those “free” cars that were bought with “free” money. I absolutely despise politicians and the entire US government at this point.

      2. And this is the reason for no crash….yet. You see all the comments on social media with folks saying “you’ve been saying that for years” when it comes to the crash that has been predicted for some time now. Well of course it hasn’t happened yet. The CARES Act with all its fraudulent stimulus gave the economy that final to-the-moon juicing. And you know what? The wreckage will be way worse now than if he whole thing would’ve been allowed to crash 3 years ago. Time to pay the piper.

    1. They can never say the real reason but it has to do with a certain element of ‘society’. The soda machine becomes a source of random violence when so many youfs are stealing from it. Far less liability (thus cheaper) to have staff fill the cup.

      1. At some point the people who end up paying the price for the rampant theft & criminality by “teens” are going to revolt against the System’s willful blindness to the societal breakdown caused by those incapable of living by civilized norms.

      2. “youfs”

        See also: teens, students, spring breakers (my favorite one, applicable to any violence and mayhem occurring in South Florida in the spring).

        Take fathers out of the home and replace them with big government, and this is what you get.

    2. WTOP local radio said that McDs is discontinuing the drink machines because they aren’t worth the upkeep, since so few people dine-in at McDs anymore. I’ve seen a few places which are drive-through only, SBUX too.

      You can still get refills; you just have to ask at the counter. And really, soda costs like a nickel. That seems to be the one thing that would be ok to steal.

      1. since so few people dine-in at McDs anymore

        Most MickeyD’s around are overrun with seniors in the mornings, who come for the cheap coffee and sometimes buy an egg McMuffin while they socialize.

  12. There is push back starting to New Mexico puppet Governor banning the 2nd Amendment based on “Emergency Powers.”
    Greg Gutfield on Fox News voiced being tired of emergencies used to take Citizens rights.
    As I said yesterday, Global Emergencies like Climate Change, Panademics, Terrorist threats, etc., was the pre-planned scheme of the One World Order to take freedoms and rights and force compliance to a great reset enslavement of humanity.
    In lockstep they locked down globe, made you wear masks and mandated expierment vaccines, and you lost your job if you didnt comply.
    Now they want Banks controlling your consumption and money and vaccine passports.
    They are saving lives, or they are saving the earth from co2, and you will own nothing and eat bugs, because we have declared the “Emergencies.” And you have no say so in what the solutions are because the UN is the Global Ruler on global response to the declared emergencies.
    New Mexico is a test case no doubt, as Covid 19 was a test to what they could accomplish .

      1. “Get Stucco”

        Whoaa !! have NOT seen that one in a long time!

        Professor, you gettin’ yer hands dirty this week?!
        haha

    2. Seeing the same in my areas. Don’t have any hard data, just what I’m seeing listed. A lot of rent decreases and/or waiving first months rent, or waiving deposits. My wife was surfing the vacation rentals last night and even though we’re heading towards winter there was a lot of empty calendars, some with no bookings at all for the next couple months. So expect we’ll see a lot of these short term rentals switch to long term and adding to supply. It’s playing out just like we thought it would.

    3. “The biggest drops have occurred where prices went up the most over the past few years — like University City and several North County cities. Increased vacancy rates mean renters now can opt to move rather than face an increase for renewing.”

      That’s great news for North County renters whose landlords are trying to screw them.

      “San Diego County is not alone in rent reductions, with much of the nation experiencing slowdowns.”

      This is truly great news for the Nation.

    1. Good stuff. It’s important to remember that the unraveling takes time, as pointed out in the vid. Which is good because it gives you time to circle the wagons (but most won’t). Also how the low inventory situation is balanced on a razor’s edge. And if we’re having declines with low inventory imagine what’s gonna happen when the floodgates open….which they will.

  16. “‘You can’t come back from this, it’s a life sentence,’ 32-year-old Andrew John, one of the residents, told news.com.au. ‘There’s people who are retiring, people with disabilities, we’re all stuck. You walk past people here, no one smiles, no one talks to you. We’re at our wit’s end.’”

    I thought misery loved company?

  17. Kyle Bass Sees Banks Losing Quarter Trillion Dollars In Coming Office Market Collapse; Morgan Stanley Sees 40% Wipeout

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kyle-bass-sees-banks-losing-quarter-trillion-dollars-coming-office-market-collapse-morgan

    The panic that gripped financial markets in March over the regional bank bailout, which was in large part due to exposure to the foundering commercial real estate space in general and the office sector in particular, is all but forgotten even though in the six months since underlying fundamentals have only gotten worse, underlying cash flows in the CRE space have slowed further, and . In fact, the only thing that has changed is the record amount of “papering over” the Fed has enabled with the central bank’s BTFP facility hitting an all time high every week. Meanwhile, if one eliminates the impact of the BTFP program, which is scheduled to sunset in around 6 months, regional banks are effectively insolvent as the following chart showing large and small banks’ cash/assets with and without BTFP makes clear.

    (Link onto the article for the charts and the rest of the
    Story.)

  18. Forget the Second Home at the Lake, US Vacation Home Buyers Are Going to Mexico

    By Mark Gilman
    9/11/2023

    With the average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate now over 7 percent and a shockingly low inventory of homes available, Americans are looking for second or vacation residences out of the country more than ever. According to a report from Coldwell Banker, 92 percent of high-net-worth Americans actively looked at real estate overseas last year and two-thirds (67 percent) of those surveyed said they already own residential property outside the United States, according to Mansion Global. So, what country is experiencing the highest rate of American home buyers? Mexico.

    “Buying a home is not as cheap in Mexico as it once was, but you get a lot for the money,” Certified International Property Specialist for Worth Clark Realty Daniel Seidel told The Epoch Times. A Mexican native, Mr. Seidel says there’s a lot to like about buying a second home in Mexico. “When you experience the culture, the food, the people and the fact it’s just a short plane ride away from the States, it’s a popular choice for my clients. If you live there half-time, it’s ideal. My advice is to work here, make money, go there and spend it.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/forget-the-second-home-at-the-lake-us-vacation-home-buyers-are-going-to-mexico-5489583

  19. A Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) whistleblower made bombshell claims against the U.S. intelligence agency on Tuesday relating to the origins of COVID-19.

    The Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic and Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence announced that members heard testimony from a CIA whistleblower who alleged that the CIA “offered six analysts significant monetary incentives to change their position on COVID-19’s origin.”

    “The whistleblower, who presents as a highly credible senior-level CIA officer, alleges that of the seven members assigned to the CIA team tasked with analyzing COVID-19 origins, six officers concluded that the virus likely originated from a lab in Wuhan, China,” the House’s Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic said in a press release. “The CIA, then however, allegedly offered financial incentives to six of the experts involved in the investigation to change their conclusion in favor of a zoonotic origin.”

    Republican Representative Majorie Taylor Greene responded to the CIA whistleblower’s revelations on Tuesday saying on X, formerly Twitter, “The taxpayer funded CIA used taxpayer’s dollars to pay off people to lie about the origins of taxpayer funded and lab created COVID.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/cia-whistleblower-s-bombshell-claim-about-covid-conspiracy/ar-AA1gCpui

    1. That almost sounds like a medical genocide.

      Oh, wait. It is a medical genocide.

      Anthony Fauci = Josef Mengele.

    3. A Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) whistleblower made bombshell claims against the U.S. intelligence agency on Tuesday relating to the origins of COVID-19.”

      That can’t be true it wasn’t on CNN or the CBS Evening News.

  20. Day 5, and my wife and I still feel like schitt, tender kidneys, muscle aches, etc., but we can function at a low grade. I’ve had worse hangovers in the tropics, and I’ve lived through a couple of those morning after Viagra headaches, which have be 12 on a 10 scale. However, I couldn’t imagine being older with chronic conditions and having to live through a COVID infection. Such is the case with our next door neighbor, and we’ve alerted her to “batten down the hatches.”

    2. “Did you see and heed the protocol I posted?”

      I downloaded their protocol, the pdf version. I already take the vitamins, daily, listed for the low risk group.

      The school district has doctors and protocols to follow as part of employment working with kids, and she is improving faster than me. I feel great if I take some of the OTC stuff, but then my regularity suffers, so I am sticking to mainly Pedialyte fluids.

      2. “Yet you continue to get jabbed.”

        The most recent jab was a flu shot, which made me feel worse than this COVID infection, but it only lasted one day.

        The COVID boosters did little to prevent infection or mitigate the infections’ symptoms. Clearly, they’re greatest of stagecoach elixirs that made its merchants $billions.

  23. ‘HGTV spent about $5.5 million purchasing and gutting the house which is why we listed it at $5.5 million, even though we knew it was an aspirational list price’

    via GIPHY

    1. Framed concert poster in the Winking Lizard Tavern last open location in downtown Cleveland:

      https://ibb.co/xJxRwjS

      I didn’t know the East 9th and Huron location was closed until I went there a few months ago and there’s only one downtown now at East 9th and St Clair.

  27. “But prices might soon bounce back a bit, according to the California Association of Realtors.”

    And the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus and Charlie Brown’s Great Pumpkin may soon organize a charity fundraiser to purchase and distribute free gifts to all the world’s childdren.

  29. “That being said, homes that are priced to market value based on condition, features, and location are still commanding top dollar.”

    It’s hilarious how these people speak out of both sides of their mouth or spew self-contradicting babble without even realizing it. They all live in a dream world.

  31. Investors can’t get enough US debt as Treasury bills are bought at a record pace
    Filip De Mott
    Sep 12, 2023, 1:20 PM PDT
    The United States Department of the Treasury building.
    Celal Gunes / Anadolu Agency

    – In just the past three months, over $1 trillion in new Treasury bills have been purchased.

    – Noncompetitive bidders bought a record-high $2.898 billion of six-month bills in mid-August, Bloomberg said.

    – That suggests smaller investors are increasingly jumping into the market for short-term US debt.
    …
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/us-debt-treasury-bills-short-term-bonds-investors-record-pace-2023-9

    1. Financial Times
      US inflation
      US inflation rises in August as petrol prices jump
      Consumer price index rises at annualised rate of 3.7 per cent, but ‘core’ reading moderates
      Petrol prices are displayed at gas stations on a highway in Maryland
      Consumer prices rose 3.7% year on year in August
      Nicholas Megaw in New York
      22 minutes ago

      US inflation exceeded forecasts in August after fuel prices rose, but underlying price pressures eased.

      The headline rate of consumer prices rose 3.7 per cent year on year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 3.2 per cent in July and higher than consensus forecasts of 3.6 per cent. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.6 per cent.

      More than half of the monthly increase was driven by a jump in petrol prices.

      However, the annual rate of core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs and is closely followed by central banks, fell to 4.3 per cent from 4.7 per cent in July.

      The Fed has lifted interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in an attempt to bring inflation back towards its 2 per cent target.
      …

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