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The Stag-Flationary Housing Market Of 2023 Continues To Take Shape

A report from Yahoo Finance. “Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand. New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data. That’s down 14.8% compared with a year ago. New construction sales reached a record-high share of homes on the market, according to the National Association of Realtors. New home sales made up about one-third of inventory on the for-sale market in the second quarter, when they typically only account for 10%. Almost one-third of homebuilders discounted home prices in September to boost sales, compared with 25% in August, the NAHB found. This marked the largest share since December 2022, when 35% of builders reduced costs.”

From Housing Wire. “The housing starts rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 334,000, declining dramatically in August, down 41.0% compared to a year ago. ‘The slowdown in new multifamily starts is a reaction to the perceived oversupply of apartments in some markets,’ observed Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant.”

From Alabama.com. “Although a sellers’ market usually means higher prices for homebuyers, Rocket Homes’ report showed that Birmingham bucked this trend last month and could continue to do so for the rest of 2023 according to local real estate agent Chris Prichard. ‘My most recent two buyers who purchased homes in Birmingham this summer both competed with multiple offers, but ultimately paid right at asking price,’ she said. ‘Whereas 18 months to two years ago, there would have been far more offers to compete with and the winning offer would almost certainly have been over asking price.’ The median selling price for Birmingham homes last month was $234,966, according to Rocket Homes. That represents a 10.5% ($27,533) decrease from July of this year. The nearby cities of Mountain Brook and Fultondale, with average home prices of $677,500 and $212,500 respectively saw price decreases of 23% and 1.2% respectively.”

Island Free Press on North Carolina. “Hatteras Island specifically is a unique place when it comes to Outer Banks real estate. Most of the island is owned or operated by government agencies. In a bit of a reprieve for house hunters, the median sales price is down 7% versus last year on the island. As you can see in the chart, sales volume has slowed significantly YTD.”

The Denton Record Chronicle in Texas. “Home sales in the city of Denton were down 25% from August of last year. Pending contracts slid 6% year-over-year. Median and average prices posted declines of 5.8% and 4.3%. Good homes were still selling fairly quickly in August, but there were simply fewer people who could afford the available housing stock. The stag-flationary housing market of 2023 continues to take shape. Many sellers are offering concessions to get buyers to the closing table. For the 36 new homes sold in the city of Denton during the month of August, the average seller concession from the builder was more than $7,600.”

“Builders have been reducing prices, ramping up the incentives and even sweetening the deals for agents in some cases. With monthly payments through the roof, sellers are again making deals if they want to move inventory. One national builder has been offering $20,000 incentives along with $5,000 price discounts and a 2% BTSA (bonus to selling agent). That’s the kind of motivation you see in a slowing housing market. Big seller concessions for mortgage rate buy-downs have been a common theme for most of the year. The concessions from builders have ramped up in recent weeks. It is important to note these generous seller concessions do not get captured in the reported sale prices. Real home prices are lower than what you see reported in most major news outlets and industry press releases.”

The Review Journal. “Nevada led the country in August in home foreclosures, according to a study from ATTOM. And Las Vegas ranked third among cities in the U.S. with the highest foreclosure rates. One in every 2,224 housing units in Nevada had a foreclosure filing in August, beating out Illinois, South Carolina, New Jersey and Delaware, according to the new report. In Las Vegas, one in every 1,796 houses was in foreclosure in August, behind Columbia, South Carolina and Fayetteville, North Carolina.”

The News Journal in Florida. “When Tropical Storm Ian roared into Volusia County one year ago, the brutal wind and waves whipped up by the ferocious system tore apart three-quarters of Phil Martin’s oceanfront home and pulled it out to sea. The surging water also devoured his backyard pool, deck and wooden dune walkover. His $1 million-plus oceanfront home is a total loss, but he still has to pay the mortgage and property taxes. ‘Quite a bit of money was lost by all of us there, and there’s no recouping it,’ Martin said. The Dimucci Twin Towers condominium in Daytona Beach Shores has a new, considerably stronger seawall in place now, said Ed Offerman and Shirley Harrington. The two residents are a part of the condo association, which led the community through repairs on the property.”

“But the repair work has come at a heavy cost to condo residents, around $3.5 million total, Offerman said. The condo association charged a special assessment to owners of the community’s 136 units to pay for it, he said. If the $3.5 million tally was evenly split among residents, that would mean a $25,735 bill for each condo unit. ‘This was a huge financial burden on our owners, an absolutely huge financial burden,’ Harrington said. Offerman said he and others had to borrow money to pay the special assessment. Some had it worse. ‘There were a few owners that were forced to sell at distressed prices,’ he said.”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “Demand for lab space in Cambridge’s Kendall Square and other Boston area life sciences hubs has dropped dramatically, leaving the region with vacant space for the first time in a decade. A report released Tuesday by Chicago-based commercial real estate giant JLL depicted an overbuilt market that is forcing building owners, who only recently commanded top dollar for premium lab space, to reduce rents and scramble for tenants. Underlying the slowdown are higher interest rates and a tighter financing market. Venture capital firms, the lifeblood for life sciences startups, have been writing 35 to 40 percent fewer checks in 2023, with a higher share of the money going to later-stage companies, the JLL report said. A once robust investor appetite for initial public offerings also has diminished.”

“‘We were going through a COVID sugar high where people were investing in all sorts of companies that probably in normal times they wouldn’t have,’ said Bob Coughlin, a JLL managing director who leads the firm’s Boston life sciences and health care practice. Now the industry is seeing ‘a correction,’ he said, ‘and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.'”

The Sacramento Bee in California. “Suburban Rancho Cordova has become the epicenter of the office vacancy crisis in the Sacramento region. The office vacancy rate in the suburban community was 31.8% as of June 30, far surpassing the overall 20.5% regional rate for the four county area of Sacramento, Yolo, El Dorado and Placer counties, shows data from brokerage firm Colliers. Will Austin, director of market analytics for the Sacramento region at the CoStar Group said the problem is that even if the market rebounds, many of the office buildings in Rancho Cordova are two-to-four story buildings that are dated because they were built more than two decades ago. ‘They’re bland to look at, they’re boring, they look like concrete boxes,’ said Austin. ‘It’s hard to get your employees to want to go to work if that’s where they’re going.'”

“One investor in two Rancho Cordova office buildings took a major loss when he sold them earlier this year. Cupertino-based investor Brent Lee sold 2868 Prospect Park Drive in the Highway 50 corridor for $12.65 million, about half of what he paid to acquire it in 2018. The 165,000-square-foot building was 43% leased, according to Colliers. The brokerage film also said Lee also sold 10901 Gold Center Drive this year, also in the Highway 50 corridor, for $10.1 million, a $8.27 million loss from a 2018 purchase.”

Vancouver is Awesome in Canada. “Mid-month September data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) shows an anticipated surge in listings of homes for sale is being seen this month. This, combined with a drop in sales compared to previous months, points to a potential shift in the market to a buyer’s advantage, agents say. ‘For the first time in a while, opportunity is knocking for buyers,’ said Kevin Skipworth, managing partner of Dexter Realty, Vancouver. At mid-month there have been 2,982 new listings, which is higher than the 2,331 new listings at mid-August and the 2,741 new listings at the mid-point of July. It’s also higher than September last year and above even the mid-point of busy September 2021, when 2,891 new listings had come out with much higher sales, at 1,477 transactions, REBGV’s data shows.”

“Meanwhile, housing sales as of September 15 of this year reached 896 sales, down from 1,198 sales at the mid-point of August and from 1,295 sales at the mid-point of July 2023, but up marginally from the 843 transactions in September 2022. Also, the sales-to-listings ratio was just 29 per cent in mid-September compared to 51 per cent at the mid-point a month earlier, and an average of 55 per cent since January, the data shows. Skipworth said the result of more listings and slowing sales could result in 11,000 active listings this month, the highest level since June 2021.”

ABC News in Australia. “Building companies have warned the industry could be in serious trouble if the state government does not give them financial help, as Perth recorded the tightest residential vacancy rate in the country. The ABC visited an emerging suburb in the city’s south-east, where the vast majority of dozens of sites earmarked for new houses lay dormant amid the skilled labour crisis. DASCO Building Group Director Damien D’Ascenzo said in a normal building environment, the street would be packed with tradies. ‘The street is pretty much empty, and there’s jobs just sitting there,’ he said. Mr D’Ascenzo said it was like nothing he had experienced before.”

“Home Builders Action Group chairman Jason Janssen said the government needed to help, and fast. ‘Small to medium businesses, like clients, are under extreme pressure,’ he said. ‘Clients are obviously doing it tough, they’re staying in their rental properties, paying mortgages for prolonged periods of time. Effectively builders are working through projects, maybe the lengthy projects from government grants from two or three years ago, which they’re effectively losing money on.’ Builders have sold assets to fund price rises to get homes built but insolvencies have increased nevertheless.”

From News.com.au. “Another prominent Chinese property developer has filed for bankruptcy protection over its $15.5 billion foreign debt as police raid the investment arm of its embattled competitor, Evergrande. Sunac has applied to the US Bankruptcy Court for protection in that country after its creditors authorised a comprehensive debt restructure. Its total liabilities – both at home and abroad – top $213 billion. Evergrande made the same application in the US after announcing it had accrued debts of more than $450 billion. And fears continue to grow that China’s biggest builder, Country Garden, is on the brink of default.”

“An industry-wide sales slump has presented Chinese property developers with a cash crunch. Many developers had geared their ability to pay contractors and investors to continuously increasing numbers of pre-build purchases by Chinese homeowners. Now, the Chinese Communist Party has begun pursuing the industry’s big players with allegations of fraud. Evergrande’s wealth management unit in Shenzhen, southern China, was raided at the weekend. Several of its staff have been detained on suspicion of ‘illegal fundraising.’ ‘Recently, public security organs took criminal compulsory measures against (general manager) Du (Liang) and other suspected criminals at Evergrande Financial Wealth Management Co,’ Shenzhen Nanshan District Police Bureau said on Saturday.”

“As the world’s second-largest economy teeters, the Chinese Communist Party is cracking down on corruption. Military generals and high-profile central government officials have been ‘disappeared.’ But the fate of business figures tends to be a much more public affair. Wang Bin, the Chairman of China Life Insurance, has been sentenced to death. He was recently found guilty of taking $69 million in bribes. According to documents obtained by the BBC, the former Communist Party chief was awarded a two-year reprieve, with the likelihood of it becoming life imprisonment without parole. He’s the lucky one.”

“Huarong Insurance chairman Lai Xiaomin was executed in 2021 after being convicted of corruption and bigamy. But two other major financial players are at risk of paying with their lives: Liu Liange, party chief of China’s central bank, Bank of China, is under investigation for ‘serious violations.’ One of its deputy governors, Fan Yifei, has been expelled from the Party and is also under investigation. The Shenzhen Province government says the raid on the Evergrande headquarters was ‘a positive significance in regulating and stabilising the financial market.'”

“‘According to the current public information, Evergrande Wealth and its related parties illegally collected funds to form an internal fund pool, violated the contract and mismatched product investment directions and deadlines, causing losses to investors,’ the statement circulated on to Weibo social media service reads.”

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When It Busts, It Busts

A report from the Wall Street Journal. "Housing markets across the world, from the U.K.…

This Post Has 85 Comments

    1. New York Post (9/19/2023):

      “A whopping 92% of adults have cut back on discretionary spending over the past six months, CNBC found after polling 4,403 US adults last week.

      More than three-quarters of respondents, 76%, plan to cut back spending on non-essential items over the next six months, during retailers’ all-important holiday shopping season, while 62% said they plan on budgeting “sometimes” or “more often” in the upcoming months, CNBC found.

      https://nypost.com/2023/09/19/most-americans-plan-to-spend-less-during-holiday-season-survey/

      92% is that a lot?

      Tell your kidz that Santa isn’t coming this year, Christmas is cancelled.

      1. The student loan deadbeats are supposed to starting repaying what they owe in October. That’ll further cut into discretionary spending.

  2. “Home sales in the city of Denton were down 25% from August of last year. Pending contracts slid 6% year-over-year. Median and average prices posted declines of 5.8% and 4.3%.

    Is that a lot?

  3. ‘We were going through a COVID sugar high where people were investing in all sorts of companies that probably in normal times they wouldn’t have’

    It doesn’t matter what part of CRE is the Next Big Thing, these clowns will always oversupply it.

    1. ^That quoted paragraph, the minor respiratory illness = the disregard of any and all economic fundamentals, because minor respiratory illness?

      National debt just topped $33 trillion, because minor respiratory illness.

      At least all the “right people” got their millions and billions.

      You get $5 gas and a 50% increase in your grocery bills.

      1. the disregard of any and all economic fundamentals, because minor respiratory illness?

        Right. And cute little terms like “money printer go brrrrr” as if that’s a totally normal, responsible government/central bank response. Jerome Powell should be arrested for treason.

  4. ‘One investor in two Rancho Cordova office buildings took a major loss when he sold them earlier this year. Cupertino-based investor Brent Lee sold 2868 Prospect Park Drive in the Highway 50 corridor for $12.65 million, about half of what he paid to acquire it in 2018. The 165,000-square-foot building was 43% leased, according to Colliers. The brokerage film also said Lee also sold 10901 Gold Center Drive this year, also in the Highway 50 corridor, for $10.1 million, a $8.27 million loss from a 2018 purchase’

    That’s two mighty a$$ poundings there Brent.

    1. My bet is he did some cashout refi’s in 2021/22 and the bank is the one taking the reaming. He got all his money back plus some.

  5. The brokerage film also said Lee also sold 10901 Gold Center Drive this year, also in the Highway 50 corridor, for $10.1 million, a $8.27 million loss from a 2018 purchase.”

    It was only Yellen Bux.

  6. CNBC — Weekly mortgage demand increases, driven by a strange surge in refinancing (9/20/2023):

    “Mortgage rates rose again last week, and so did demand for refinances, which at face value doesn’t make a lot of sense.

    Refinancing demand usually moves in the opposite direction as mortgage rates, but that was not the case. Last week the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 7.31% from 7.27% …

    It may be that borrowers are concerned rates could go even higher, and so they’re jumping in now.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/weekly-mortgage-demand-rises-driven-by-a-strange-surge-in-refinancing.html

    That last sentence quoted ^ is not about “concern” over rate increases.

    This trainwreck of an economy is running on fumes, and a cash out refi is the only way many people can buy food, and for some, use the refi proceeds to pay the mortgage itself.

    “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

    1. “cash out refi is the only way many people can buy food, and for some, use the refi proceeds to pay the mortgage itself.”

      Spot on. When I was a newbie loan officer in the late 90’s I was trained to show people on paper how if they consolidated all their debt into a cash out refi that they’re new mortgage payment would be lower than the sum of all the payments on their debt and previous mortgage, even though the rate was higher than their previous mortgage (yes, it’s still called a cash out refi if you’re paying off debt). So when you see this know that people are buried and out of options. And they’re absorbing the equity they currently have in their home, which leaves them no room to sell as the market drops. And I’m sure their loan officer is telling them not worry because he/she will just refi them in a year back into their rock bottom rate. If you know how to read the signs it becomes evident the collapse has begun.

    2. Mortgage rates rose again last week, and so did demand for refinances, which at face value doesn’t make a lot of sense.
      I hope they penciled out the cost of a HELOC/2nd mortgage before trading in that 3-4% mortgage.

      1. That would likely be there better play if they’re consolidating debt they’re buried in. But the starving loan officer will likely not even mention it and steer them toward the refi. Why? Commission. What pays more? A couple of points on $400,000 is way better than a couple of points on $60,000. In this market a LO who’s looking out for your best interests is impossible to find.

        1. And again, that LO will likely be selling them on the fact that he/she will be putting them back in that 3% loan when they refi next year…..realtors aren’t the only liars.

    3. $100K in credit card debt at 21%

      I wonder why they would refi instead of a HELOC. Are banks shutting down LOCs?

  7. ‘Quite a bit of money was lost by all of us there, and there’s no recouping it’

    Well it was cheaper than renting Phil.

    ‘This was a huge financial burden on our owners, an absolutely huge financial burden,’ Harrington said. Offerman said he and others had to borrow money to pay the special assessment. Some had it worse. ‘There were a few owners that were forced to sell at distressed prices’

    So just like that Ed, they gave it away.

  8. From yesterday’s thread:

    “For @Paulkrugman, and frankly many other well-off pundits – an embarrassing number of them academic economists, billionaires, and reporters – to constantly mock & downplay the severe impact of a constantly rising cost of living on the vast majority of Americans, is despicable.”

    These are the economic circumstances that will lead to something like the French Revolution, one of the reasons leading up to which was the price of bread.

    They’re not “elites” they are blood sucking parasites. Paul Krugman, and every other phony economist, YOU are the parasite class.

    1. Paul Krugman is a useless eater, as are Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, George Soros, Klaus Schwab and all of their ilk.

  10. ‘in a normal building environment, the street would be packed with tradies. ‘The street is pretty much empty, and there’s jobs just sitting there’

    Wa happened to my labor shortage Damien?

    ‘Clients are obviously doing it tough, they’re staying in their rental properties, paying mortgages for prolonged periods of time. Effectively builders are working through projects, maybe the lengthy projects from government grants from two or three years ago, which they’re effectively losing money on’

    It’s still a sellers market Jason.

  11. ‘As the world’s second-largest economy teeters, the Chinese Communist Party is cracking down on corruption. Military generals and high-profile central government officials have been ‘disappeared.’ But the fate of business figures tends to be a much more public affair. Wang Bin, the Chairman of China Life Insurance, has been sentenced to death. He was recently found guilty of taking $69 million in bribes. According to documents obtained by the BBC, the former Communist Party chief was awarded a two-year reprieve, with the likelihood of it becoming life imprisonment without parole. He’s the lucky one’

    ‘Huarong Insurance chairman Lai Xiaomin was executed in 2021 after being convicted of corruption and bigamy. But two other major financial players are at risk of paying with their lives: Liu Liange, party chief of China’s central bank, Bank of China, is under investigation for ‘serious violations.’ One of its deputy governors, Fan Yifei, has been expelled from the Party and is also under investigation’

    Xitler is doing a purge – again. I was watching an interview yesterday and some international press was asking, wa happened to so and so? The woman gave non-answers. These were some of the highest positions in China-ron, and they ‘disappeared’.

  13. The Washington Post is the Enemy Of The American People.

    Washington Post Editorial Board — Biden has done a lot for Ukraine. But not enough (9/20/2023):

    https://archive.ph/frqPM

    No excerpt needed, you can read it for yourself, TLDR version: war pigs gonna pig.

    “Editorials represent the views of The Post as an institution, as determined through debate among members of the Editorial Board, based in the Opinions section and separate from the newsroom.

    Members of the Editorial Board and areas of focus: Opinion Editor David Shipley; Deputy Opinion Editor Karen Tumulty; Associate Opinion Editor Stephen Stromberg (national politics and policy); Lee Hockstader (European affairs, based in Paris); David E. Hoffman (global public health); James Hohmann (domestic policy and electoral politics, including the White House, Congress and governors); Charles Lane (foreign affairs, national security, international economics); Heather Long (economics); Associate Editor Ruth Marcus; Mili Mitra (public policy solutions and audience development); Keith B. Richburg (foreign affairs); and Molly Roberts (technology and society).”

    The people named in the above paragraph are the Enemy Of The American People.

    They are the Globalist Scum Media. To them, the United States is not a sovereign nation, it exists only for the extraction of wealth from U.S. taxpayers for endless globalist wars. Globalists have no allegiance to one nation, they are internationalists, geographic opportunists.

    Their children do not fight in the wars they provoke and prolong. Only yours do.

  15. The owner of a New York City day care center where a 1-year-old child died after being exposed to fentanyl took steps to cover up her involvement in a sprawling drug operation, even as medics rushed to treat several children in her care who were poisoned by the opioid, federal prosecutors said.

    The day care owner, Grei Mendez, and a man who rented a room from her, Carlisto Acevedo Brito, were hit with new federal narcotics conspiracy charges Tuesday. They were previously charged in state court with murder of “depraved indifference” in the death of 1-year-old Nicholas Dominici.

    Authorities said they are currently seeking a third suspect, Mendez’s husband and a cousin to Brito, who fled shortly after learning of the apparent exposure.

    Officials say they discovered a kilogram of fentanyl stored on top of playmats used by children who attended the day care, which was run out of a small Bronx apartment. They also found multiple devices for mixing the powder with other narcotics and pressing it into bricks.

    The fentanyl is believed to have sickened four children, including Dominici, who died Friday afternoon. Three others — ranging in age from 8 months to 2 years old — were hospitalized.

    Appearing in Manhattan federal court on Tuesday, a distraught Mendez held her head in her hands and cried out for her daughter and mother, both in attendance, while denying any knowledge of the drug operation.

    The allegations, Mendez’s attorney said, were related to her husband’s actions, not hers.

    Federal prosecutors have accused Mendez, 36, of playing a role in both the drug distribution ring and her husband’s escape. On Friday afternoon, after discovering the three children in her care were not waking up from their nap, she made three calls, including two to her husband, before dialing 911, prosecutors said.

    Within minutes of those calls, the husband was seen entering the Bronx apartment, then whisking at least two full shopping bags out of the building through a back alley. Emergency personnel arrived shortly after to find the children showing signs of opioid intoxication.

    The phone calls, along with the apparent deletion of thousands of texts between Mendez and her husband, suggested an effort to cover up the narcotics operation inside the apartment, according to Brandon Thompson, an assistant U.S. attorney in Manhattan.

    Thompson described Mendez’s conduct as “truly galling” and “unspeakably dangerous,” adding that “her husband has already fled and there’s no reason to believe she wouldn’t also.”

    Clay Kaminsky, an attorney assigned to represent Mendez, said the government had tried to pin the “sensational case” on his client without evidence that she had any knowledge of the drugs inside her day care center.

    A mother of four with no prior arrests, Mendez has worked in restaurants and as a home health aide since moving to New York from the Dominican Republic nine years ago, Kaminsky added. He denied the allegations of cover up, saying she panicked after finding the sick children and only spoke to her husband for 10 seconds before calling 911.

    The federal judge, Jennifer Willis, sided with the prosecutors, ordering Mendez held in federal custody without bail. She is expected to be transferred from Rikers Island to the Metropolitan Detention Center, a federal jail.

    Brito, a 41-year-old tenant of the apartment for the last two months, was charged alongside Mendez for his alleged role in the drug operations. New York City police said they recovered a kilogram press device inside the closet of an adjoining room occupied by Brito.

    He did not speak during the court proceeding. A message left with his attorney wasn’t returned.

    Both Brito and Mendez face the possibility of life in prison if convicted on the federal charges.

    At a news conference on Tuesday, U.S. Attorney Damien Williams said the news of Dominci’s death had “shocked the conscience of a city already reeling from the devastating effects of the fentanyl crisis.”

    He noted that New York, like much of the country, has seen rising levels of opioid-related deaths, with the vast majority of fatalities now attributed to fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that can be more than 50 times stronger than heroin.

    At an unrelated briefing on Tuesday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams offered a blunt description of the tragedy.

    “We’ve just become so screwed up as a society. We got to get our acts together,” he said. “I don’t know what’s wrong with us. We had fentanyl in a day care center.”

    https://infotel.ca/newsitem/us-day-care-fentanyl-death/cp1941562853

    1. “We’ve just become so screwed up as a society. We got to get our acts together,” he said. “I don’t know what’s wrong with us. We had fentanyl in a day care center.”

      All by design. The Masters of the Universe want this to happen. And far too many people are complicit, as it means easy money for them and no one seems to be trying to stop them, at least not until a baby in a day care center OD’s

    2. The precursor chemicals are made in Communist China, then cooked up into fentanyl by the Mexican Cartels, shipped across our open southern border by the Mexican Cartels, and distributed across the U.S. by the Mexican Cartels.

      The present government in D.C. is allowing all of this.

      They’re doing it on purpose.

  18. “Home Builders Action Group chairman Jason Janssen said the government needed to help, and fast”

    So much wrong with that statement. And this mindset is a large part of the problem.

      1. Australia and Canada were jabbing kids at school without parental consent. I was scared California would follow suit.

  20. Anger mounts as China’s property debt crisis leaves flats unfinished
    South China Morning Post
    Sep 18, 2023

    Dozens of homebuyers in Tongchuan, a city in northwestern China’s Shaanxi province, are demanding police action as the presale flats they bought years ago remain unfinished shells. The so-called “rotting” or unfinished homes in China have become more common since a property slump in 2021, which has seen some property developers go bankrupt, and others left in massive debt.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug2Eeflo5ao

    5 minutes.

    2. MarketWatch
      Jim Chanos says China ‘poses grave financial and geopolitical threats’ — ‘more so today than ever before’
      Provided by Dow Jones
      Sep 13, 2023 6:37 AM PDT
      By Victor Reklaitis

      Famed short seller and perma-bear on China gives his views to the House Select Committee on the CCP

      That line above came Tuesday from short seller Jim Chanos, as he reiterated his longstanding concerns about China’s economy to a U.S. House committee that held a hearing on Beijing’s threat to U.S. financial stability.

      Chanos, who has been bearish on China for more than a decade, told the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party in a prepared statement that the Asian nation’s economic model is “all about growing GDP at almost any cost,” with much of the investment in gross domestic product funded by debt. He offered warnings about “overbuilding” and “ghost cities,” adding that “China’s real-estate market has developed serious cracks in its foundation.”
      …
      https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230913380/jim-chanos-says-china-poses-grave-financial-and-geopolitical-threats-more-so-today-than-ever-before

    3. Been by there twice, and it looks like work has stopped at the development near me in LV. Million dollar homes, some with extra tall garages for RVs, all ugly and the usual postage-stamp lots.

  22. “The condo association charged a special assessment to owners of the community’s 136 units to pay for it, he said. If the $3.5 million tally was evenly split among residents, that would mean a $25,735 bill for each condo unit.”

    Seems like small potatoes compared to the drops in market values we’ve seen recently reported due to rate hikes…unless the owners have to cough up the cash to pay the bill.

  23. The Washington Post

    Trump hits new poll highs with Black, Hispanic voters. What to make of it?

    Either former president Donald Trump’s standing in early 2024 polls is inflated, or we are headed for a sizable realignment in how non-White voters cast their ballots.

    Multiple polls in recent weeks have shown Trump performing historically well among Black and Hispanic voters in head-to-head matchups with President Biden, helping put him neck-and-neck with Biden in a way he rarely was during their 2020 matchup.

    Across five high-quality polls that have broken out non-White voters in the past month, Trump is averaging 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters.

    Both numbers — and especially that for Black voters — could set modern-day records for a Republican in a presidential election. Trump in 2020 took just 8 percent of Black voters and 36 percent of Hispanic voters, according to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter survey. Exit polls pegged those figures at 12 percent of Black voters and 32 percent of Hispanic voters.

    (The validated voter surveys involve conducting a huge poll of American adults and then getting a more accurate picture than the exit polls by verifying whether respondents actually voted, using official records.)

    No Republican presidential candidate in the past 50 years has approached receiving 20 percent of the Black vote. Since Republicans took 18 percent in 1972 and 16 percent in 1976, according to exit polls, they haven’t taken more than 12 percent of Black voters. Their average share over the past 50 years is 9 percent — about half of where Trump currently sits in the polls.

    Hispanic voters have trended toward the GOP in recent elections, but the party’s current high-water marks over the past half-century are 37 percent in 1984 and a disputed 44 percent in 2004. (Other estimates placed President George W. Bush’s actual share of the Hispanic vote that year at about 40 percent, which would be shy of where Trump currently is in the polls.)

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-hits-new-poll-highs-with-black-hispanic-voters-what-to-make-of-it/ar-AA1gXtUk

    1. “It’s the economy, stupid” — James Carville, 1992

      The DJT economy saw the lowest unemployment on record for black and Hispanic people.

      Yes, there was bubble trouble in housing and other asset classes in 2019, but for the majority of working Americans, people could afford food and gas and a place to live.

      Fast forward to 2023, unemployment may still be low, but PEOPLE CAN NOT AFFORD TO LIVE.

      Democrat Party doing what it does best: creating and increasing human misery.

    2. Democrats made two assumptions:

      1) American blacks would welcome Haitians and other blacks.

      2) That “Hispanics” are a monolithic group. Turns out that Mexicans, Central Americans, South Americans and Caribbeans don’t like each other.

  24. In spite of High Court ruling that cancelling student debt wasn’t legal, Joe Biden has been doing it.
    People have been getting notices in mail that their school debt has been cancelled up to 20 k. I know someone that got such notice that 18 k in school debt was cancelled.
    I don’t know what loophole was used to do this, but its being done in the billions, charged to the taxpayers.
    Government bailed out the fraudulent lenders in around 2009, and now school debt .
    Next raparations charged to people who never had slaves, paid to people who were never slaves.
    Now the New World Order has totally captured the governments of the world to collude with this Great Reset take over One World dictorship they plan.

    1. “The Biden-Harris Administration has already approved more than $117 billion in targeted relief for 3.4 million student loan borrowers,” said the Education Department in a statement last week. This includes $39 billion in loan forgiveness for borrowers under the IDR Account Adjustment, which is ongoing, as well as over $10 billion in loan discharges for disabled borrowers. The department has approved billions in additional student loan forgiveness for borrowers working in public service careers, and those defrauded by their schools.

  25. “These are the economic circumstances that will lead to something like the French Revolution, one of the reasons leading up to which was the price of bread.”

    – Yes. The Arab Spring was an example of food and rents becoming unaffordable.

    – Unsurprisingly, high food and shelter costs lead to social unrest.

    – “Mostly peaceful protests” you say? “Let them eat cake” you say? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Apologies to BTO. Be very careful here or the response may be: “Let them eat lead.” Inflation is outright theft and a government policy, a very dangerous government policy.

  26. ** “Wang Bin, the Chairman of China Life Insurance, has been sentenced to death. He was recently found guilty of taking $69 million in bribes. According to documents obtained by the BBC, the former Communist Party chief was awarded a two-year reprieve, with the likelihood of it becoming life imprisonment without parole. He’s the lucky one.”

    Lucky, eh?! after Wang has been on house arrest for a month he’ll be begging for jail time, just to get away from the embarrassed angry wife & spoiled kid(s) on video games 24/7.

    “Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death” takes on a new meaning

  28. Fed says higher for longer. How’s that soft landing feeling now? Powell mentioned nothing about rate cuts, just fewer hikes in ‘24…..meaning likely more hikes to come. I’m sure a lot of rectums started puckering at today’s announcement.

  29. ‘My most recent two buyers who purchased homes in Birmingham this summer both competed with multiple offers, but ultimately paid right at asking price…Whereas 18 months to two years ago, there would have been far more offers to compete with and the winning offer would almost certainly have been over asking price’

    There’s a price to pay for letting this seep into every corner of the country Jerry.

  30. ‘The concessions from builders have ramped up in recent weeks. It is important to note these generous seller concessions do not get captured in the reported sale prices’

    It’s almost like they are running a scam or something.

  31. ‘Quite a bit of money was lost by all of us there, and there’s no recouping it’

    People who live in high risk areas have been saying this since they first built shacks there Martin.

    ‘The Dimucci Twin Towers condominium in Daytona Beach Shores has a new, considerably stronger seawall in place now…But the repair work has come at a heavy cost to condo residents, around $3.5 million total…‘This was a huge financial burden on our owners, an absolutely huge financial burden’…Offerman said he and others had to borrow money to pay the special assessment. Some had it worse. ‘There were a few owners that were forced to sell at distressed prices’

    I take it seawalls aren’t covered by insurance (big sirprize). So yer fooked if something like that fails. It could have been $6 million.

  32. ‘Another prominent Chinese property developer has filed for bankruptcy protection over its $15.5 billion foreign debt as police raid the investment arm of its embattled competitor, Evergrande. Sunac has applied to the US Bankruptcy Court for protection in that country’

    Evergrande took this route because they have Cayman operations. Maybe Sunac is the same.

    ‘for bankruptcy protection over its $15.5 billion foreign debt’

  33. With the amount of natural resources that the United States has, arable land for growing enough food to feed its own population and export food, nearly infinite existing and yet to be tapped energy resources, people shouldn’t have to live like this, today in America.

    They are a Parasite Class. These self-proclaimed elites are parasites. Mosquitos, ticks, leeches, they are blood sucking parasites.

    They contribute nothing. They create nothing. They leave nothing but destruction and misery in their wake.

    2. The streets could be literally paved with gold if we got rid of these swine. Unfortunately, those who want to replace them are legion.

      Just got around to reading my paperwork from PCP Medicare required visit the other day. Laughed when I saw that I am referred to as “they” throughout, as in “they weren’t wild about getting regular colonoscopies.” Okay, I embellished a bit on that one, but all references to my sweet female self were “they” all the way.

  35. Screenshot from Globalist Scum Media the Huffington Post website climate alarmism titled — Humanity Has Opened The Gates To Hell:

    https://ibb.co/g3LLg9y

    Do you know who goes to Hell, globalists?

    People who do not accept Jesus Christ as their Lord and Saviour, mostly.

    Not all of them, but of those that do, there is an eerie sense of pattern recognition, mostly characterized by a vocal embrace of alleged atheism, but unanimously united in their hatred of Christianity.

    Globalists gonna globe.

      1. Financial Times
        Oil
        Hedge funds add fuel to oil price rally with bets on rise above $100
        Speculators have increased their long positions as crude has climbed almost 30% since June
        An oil refinery in California
        Hedge funds’ oil bets are adding impetus to a rally in Brent crude, sparked by Russia and Saudi Arabia’s reduction in exports and production
        George Steer and David Sheppard in London  2 hours ago

        Hedge funds are piling into the oil market betting that prices will soon pass $100 a barrel, adding impetus to a rally sparked by production and export cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

        Riyadh’s extension until December of a 1mn barrel a day oil cut, in addition to further cuts under its Opec+ target, has compounded Moscow’s move to limit exports and pushed prices for Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, to $95 a barrel this week, a fresh high for the year.

        Exchange and regulatory data suggested hedge fund positioning had exacerbated the near 30 per cent move higher in prices since June, with a surge in buying accelerating in the past two weeks for both Brent and US crude futures.
        …

      2. Financial Times
        Federal Reserve
        Federal Reserve hardens commitment to ‘higher for longer’ interest rates
        New projections and remarks from chair Jay Powell signal no near-term relief from elevated borrowing costs
        Montage of Jay Powell and Federal Reserve logo
        Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, hinted that a higher-for-longer approach was warranted because estimates of the so-called ‘neutral’ interest rate could be higher than thought
        Colby Smith in Washington
        3 hours ago

        For months, Jay Powell has tried to scotch hopes that the Federal Reserve will perform an abrupt about-face when it reaches the apex of its historic rate-rising campaign.

        The US central bank chair on Wednesday hammered home the point in a press conference after the Fed decided to hold its benchmark rate steady at a 22-year high. His remarks, which were buttressed by a new set of economic projections, sent a clear message: any relief from high borrowing costs will be neither swift nor generous.

        The projections, which also include a ‘dot plot’ of individual interest rate estimates, showed that after one more increase this year — lifting the federal funds rate to between 5.5 per cent and 5.75 per cent — most officials see a much slower path of rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. Despite the Fed keeping monetary policy tight, they predicted economic growth would remain relatively robust and the unemployment rate would not rise materially.
        …

        1. “…any relief from high borrowing costs will be neither swift nor generous.”

          There have been few worse times to be mired in unrepayable debt.

      3. 11 hours ago
        Treasury Yields Highest Since 2006
        By Karishma Vanjani

        The yields on the 20-year Treasury rose to 5.118% Wednesday.

        That was the highest level since mid-2006, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

        The gains came after the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections showed officials expect fewer rate cuts next year.
        …
        https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-092023/card/treasury-yields-highest-since-2006-N6tLzxq83cvRwFhlTD29

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