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We Would Have Been Insulted By That Not Long Ago

A report from the East Valley Tribune in Arizona. “Butch Leiber, president of Phoenix REALTORS’ board of directors, said inventory in Chandler this summer climbed by 500 homes from July to August. Listings Valley-wide were around 7,100 last month, the Cromford Report said. That was higher than late July’s count of 6,486. ‘When the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stays above 7%, demand for re-sale homes is so feeble that it is not even enough to eat up the small number of new listings that appear each week,’ it said. ‘Available supply is starting to grow.’ It also reported, ‘The new home market continues to show more strength than the re-sale market, particularly in volume. However, the new home sales mix moved sharply toward cheaper homes between July and August, causing the median to drop dramatically by more than 6%.'”

Axios on Texas. “Less than a fifth of Austin homes for sale are snapped up in two weeks or less, per new Redfin data shared with Axios. The stat is the latest reflection of how the hyper-competitive market during the pandemic’s throes — with frantic bidding within hours of a house going on the market — is now in the rearview mirror. Homes in the greater Austin area spent an average of 60 days on the market in August, up 28 days from August 2022, per the Austin Board of Realtors. It’s good news for buyers, says Austin Board of Realtors president Ashley Jackson. ‘Austin’s current housing market allows for potential home buyers to be picky,’ Jackson says. ‘Buyers — especially first-time home buyers — can take their time searching for a home that checks all their boxes. When compared to the past two years of highly competitive market activity, this is both a welcome reprieve and perfect opportunity for buyers looking to enter the market.’ The median price in the greater Austin region dropped 7.6% since last August to $460,000. But in Hays County the drop-off year-over-year is 10.1% and in Bastrop County it’s 15%.”

The News Press in Florida. “In September 2022, Hurricane Ian’s historic surge and winds decimated swaths of Southwest Florida, especially coastal Lee County communities of Pine Island, Matlacha, St. James City, Sanibel Island and Captiva. The epicenter of the destruction was Fort Myers Beach. But the Category 4 monster also severely damaged parts of Cape Coral, Harlem Heights in south Fort Myers, Isles of Capri near Marco Island in Collier County and points in-between. Sanibel’s real property values were down about $2.1 billion, about 34%, from July 2022 to July 2023 and some of the biggest losses came from impacted condominiums, according to city officials.”

The Messenger. “Branden and Rayni Williams — two real estate agents who regularly sell homes for celebrities just listed what will likely be their last ‘passion project.’ Nestled into the hillside near the Sunset Strip, their spec home dubbed ‘The Californication’ in Hollywood Hills hit the market for $38 million Wednesday. The Williamses bought the property in a ‘sweetheart deal’ in 2016 for just $2.9 million, Branden Williams told The Messenger. Then began their multi-year spec house development. The lavish features cost the developers handsomely. After they spent the money from their loan, Williams said, the developers paid for the project from their own pockets. And now that it’s finally finished, Williams said he and his partner and wife won’t be doing any more big builds. Between the higher costs of labor and materials, Williams said it’s just not worth it anymore. Speaking of The Californication’s listing, he said ‘At this price, with some negotiation room, we don’t even make money…because of inflation costs.'”

From Bisnow. “With oversupply being an issue in the multifamily market and more units on the way, properties have become cheaper to acquire in the last year. Apartment building prices declined 17% in February and 16% in August. Last month, Blackstone sold its entire Manhattan multifamily portfolio for $142M — a 43% loss from when it was purchased in 2015.”

The Nevada Appeal. “Two recent office building sales offer a glimmer of hope for Northern Nevada’s struggling office market, although some sub-sectors – mainly, South Meadows – continue to vastly underperform. Chase Houston, senior vice president at Logic Commercial Real Estate agrees that Northern Nevada’s office market is a mixed bag – and it could worsen overall as commercial office leases expire in coming years. ‘Office nationally looks like it is in meltdown right now, but Reno is different. Right now is an odd time,’ Houston said. ‘Our market is vastly different. We have some big vacant office buildings, but tenants are still paying rent because they still have lease commitments. Investors don’t want to hop in because they are waiting for a crash, and sellers don’t want to sell because they have no real need to. There is so much cash at hand … We are in purgatory.'”

From Barron‘s. “Bank of America’s big bond losses likely widened in the current quarter due to a sharp increase in market interest rates. Bank of America was sitting on $105.8 billion of losses on a $614 billion portfolio of mostly agency mortgage securities at the end of the second quarter. That loss could have widened by $10 billion to $15 billion in the current quarter assuming no major rate moves by the end of this week, Barron’s estimates. The losses on the BofA held-to-maturity portfolio are real and way exceed those of any of its peers. The losses are equivalent to more than half its $184 billion of tangible equity in the second quarter. The losses appear to have weighed on BofA’s stock, which is down 18%, to $27.31, so far this year, the worst showing among its peers. Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, which owns about 13% of BofA’s stock and is its largest shareholder, has been critical of banks for loading up on mortgage securities at the worst possible time in 2020 and 2021. The securities have the disadvantageous tendency to lengthen in effective maturity when rates rise. Buffett called them a ‘dumb’ investment for banks in a CNBC interview in April.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “The Toronto-area real estate market is seeing a gradual swell in listings from 20-year lows. Scott Hanton, broker and president at Hanton Real Estate Inc., calls the current market ‘deadsville’ for many sellers. ‘The past three weeks – I’ve never seen it this slow.’ During the summer, buyers were running into sellers who were standing their ground on price, he explains. Now, as more listings arrive, some homeowners who have a more urgent need to sell are trimming their asking prices. But even as properties are discounted, buyers are having a hard time qualifying for a mortgage at the amount they were hoping for. ‘It’s not a battle of wills,’ he says. ‘The buyers simply don’t have the money and can’t get the money.'”

“Mr. Hanton recently listed a condo unit in the popular King West neighbourhood in the $700,000 to $800,000 range. He was forced to pull the listing after the seller of a competing unit dropped their price by $50,000 and struck a deal. ‘Some buyers want a two-bedroom under $700,000,’ he says. ‘It turns out there’s a lot now.’ In the freehold market, sellers of semi-detached houses that were fetching $1.5-million last year may be accepting offers of $1.3-million. ‘We would have been insulted by that not long ago,’” he says.”

“The combination of higher interest rates and more conservative lending practices – especially at the major banks – have created a more challenging landscape for buyers, he adds. ‘I remember a time when they were giving money away. They’re just not willing to take that risk any more.’ Buyers who might have been looking above the $1-million mark in the past need to drop into the $900,000s, he says. It’s common these days for prospective buyers to lower their budget by $100,000. As for sellers, many downsizers who were hesitant to list when prices dipped from their 2022 peak don’t want to delay their move any longer. And more inventory is coming this fall. Home inspectors, stagers and photographers – the leading indicators of supply – report that they have lots of work. ‘They are swamped,’ Mr. Hanton says. ‘There’s going to be quite a bit coming to market.'”

The Eastern Daily Press. “Asking prices for homes in north Norfolk are being slashed at one of the highest rates in the country, with estate agents warning sellers they risk missing out if they don’t lower their expectations. Nearly a quarter (19pc) of homes on the market in north Norfolk saw asking price reductions of more than 5pc over the past 90 days, making it the area with the second highest proportion of major price drops in the UK, according to Zoopla. The only place with a higher figure was Thanet, in Kent, where 21pc of properties on the market saw asking price reductions of more than 5pc over the same period.”

“And while there is a trend of sellers dropping prices the UK, Clive Hedges, Arnolds Keys coastal branch manager, said such a high proportion could signal sellers are being given bad advice. He said: ‘Less experienced agents that don’t have decades of experience will have only operated in a market that’s rising. That could lead them to set the price too high to begin with. It’s not an easy conversation to have, telling a seller the value of their home isn’t as high as it was a year ago, so you’ll always get those vendors that say let’s try it at that higher price. The problem with that is that you risk the property on the market for so long it goes stale, which will make it much harder to sell.'”

The West Australian. “Some new housing statistics out this week could fuel a new round of panic buying, but buyers, please beware. Not every property will enjoy good capital gains, as about 80 per cent of sellers in one apartment block have found out this year after selling at a loss. Take The Towers complex at Elizabeth Quay for example, where most of this year’s sellers have taken a loss. According to sales records, only two of the 11 apartments to sell in 2023 earned a profit, with nine selling at a loss, and inconclusive results for a first-time sale and one that has not yet settled. My analysis shows these loss-making apartments were all purchased in the downturn between 2015 and 2020, with losses ranging from 2.5 to 20 per cent, or close to $300,000. Of course, the owners who were investors benefitted from some pretty strong rental yields at The Towers. But its safe to assume the owner-occupiers are disappointed to effectively walk away with a debt.”

“The losses highlight that apartments tend not to increase in value as quickly as houses, and some areas suffer more than most. According to RP Data, the median price for units in Subiaco and Mosman Park are about $30,000 cheaper now than in 2008. At the luxury end, there are areas that simply have not lived up to the hype, like parts of North Coogee. Builder Dale Alcock forked out $2.97 million for a North Coogee block in 2007 and sold it last year for $1.6 million — a $1.37 million loss. It is safe to assume the property markets wild ride is not over. Choose wisely.”

From Reuters. “A record number of Chinese are choosing to travel at home this Golden Week holiday, potentially boosting domestic consumption but disappointing travel agents who have been waiting for big-spending tourists to go back abroad since the pandemic ended. A resident of Anqing city, in eastern Anhui province, who gave her family name as Cao plans to stay in her hometown this holiday, as the monthly installments for her recently purchased apartment were draining most of her disposable income. ‘I used to travel farther, but this year I will either stay in my hometown or go to nearby places,’ she added.”

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This Post Has 114 Comments

  1. The median price in the greater Austin region dropped 7.6% since last August to $460,000. But in Hays County the drop-off year-over-year is 10.1% and in Bastrop County it’s 15%.”

    Is that a lot?

      1. Yep. Those who bought in 2022 and put 20% down or less will now sell at a loss once you add in the 5% sales commish and all closing costs. So those who bought in 2022 are hosed. All you need is a 10% YOY drop in prices. Soon to follow are those who bought in 2021, then 2020….and so on, and so on….oh, ….but I forgot. Those who bought several years ago are currently tapping their equity to survive so they’re hosed too.

        1. And I forgot to mention, that also means no refi for you. Remember when your realtor told you to “date the rate”? Well it wont matter if the current rate becomes 2% because you ain’t getting it. You’ve been schlonged!

  2. ‘The securities have the disadvantageous tendency to lengthen in effective maturity when rates rise. Buffett called them a ‘dumb’ investment’

    That makes you a bag holder Warren.

  3. ‘Sanibel’s real property values were down about $2.1 billion, about 34%, from July 2022 to July 2023 and some of the biggest losses came from impacted condominiums’

    A big a$$ pounding for a little strip of sand. I wonder what insurance costs?

    1. There’s a reason why people didn’t build expensive houses along the Gulf Coast for centuries. They knew that every 10-20 year, a massive hurricane would come along and wipe everything out. The insurance companies are figuring that out and pulling coverage. They can’t make money if they have to pay out to rebuild a $2 million house. The insurance premium would have to be over $100K/yr just to break even.

      1. There’s a memorial in Galveston, TX for an 1900 hurricane event that scoured the barrier island of buildings and people. Winds were over 120-mph, so the storm surge had to be incredible.

  4. Bank of America was sitting on $105.8 billion of losses on a $614 billion portfolio of mostly agency mortgage securities at the end of the second quarter. That loss could have widened by $10 billion to $15 billion in the current quarter assuming no major rate moves by the end of this week, Barron’s estimates.

    Surely their DEI risk managers have strategies in place to mitigate wrong-way bond bets, just like SVB did.

    Oh, wait….

    1. “…DEI risk managers…”

      Of course, they couldn’t see it coming.

      What exactly do these guys do all day?

          1. A risk management program should consider that customers, shareholders and regulators will expect an organization to demonstrate its commitment to DEI and its progress towards greater inclusion. These efforts are not solely an HR responsibility, but rather require that DEI considerations should be integrated into every aspect of a company’s operations.

            Risk managers have an important role to play in DEI, which interacts with many areas of risk already on their agenda, such as governance, liability, corporate culture, reputation and supply chain disruption. Risk managers need to take an active role in DEI, promoting and facilitating the assessment of risk. By engaging with HR, risk managers will be better able to understand the organization’s DEI strategy and influence actions with risk in mind.

            https://www.zurich.com/en/commercial-insurance/sustainability-and-insights/commercial-insurance-risk-insights/growing-role-for-risk-managers-as-diversity-exposures-rise#:~:text=Risk%20managers%20have%20an%20important,reputation%20and%20supply%20chain%20disruption.

        2. Collect $$$.

          There seems to be a lot of that going on: people who do no meaningful work and collect fat paychecks.

  6. ‘It’s not a battle of wills,’ he says. ‘The buyers simply don’t have the money and can’t get the money.’”

    You know what this means, Greedhead sellers. Better get to slashin’ like you be in a Jamie Lee Curtis movie.

  7. ‘I used to travel farther, but this year I will either stay in my hometown or go to nearby places,’ she added.”

    I hear they’re laying on more trains for the ever-popular trip to Schlongville.

  9. The Republicans must win this if our Country is to survive, that’s becoming clearer, Nikki Haley appears to be slowly morphing out..getting a looking over….wonder if she has the contacts , and energy to put on a national effort ? Reminds me of 1992 ,when Bill Clinton slowly emerged as the one, though the effort to demolish him was never-ceasing, He had a huge boost from his spouse , and like him or not,was a good ,if not a great leader….Nikki was a strong Gov. here in SC , and took a lot of guff, but managed to destroy the Dems in SC ,they’re still reeling,, maybe she’ll do that nationally ?

    3. She’s not a “conservative” because the only things she’s interested in conserving are Ukraine and Israel.

      #AmericaFirst

  11. Let the good times roll.

    “only to be released early under Soros-funded State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby on “good-time credits.”

    Jason Billingsley, Suspect Wanted in Murder of Tech CEO, Strangled and Raped Woman at Knifepoint in 2013 After Posing as a Good Samaritan

    by Chris Menahan | Information Liberation
    September 28th 2023

    Jason Dean Billingsley, the 32-year-old suspect wanted by police for allegedly murdering EcoMap Technologies CEO Pava Marie LaPere, was sentenced to three decades in prison for strangling and raping a woman at knifepoint in 2013 only to be released early under Soros-funded State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby on “good-time credits.”

    The ‘armed and dangerous’ suspect in the brutal murder of Baltimore tech CEO Pava LaPere posed as a Good Samaritan to strangle and rape a woman at knifepoint a decade earlier, DailyMail.com can exclusively reveal.

    Powerfully built Jason Billingsley, 32, approached his victim, who was in her 20s at the time, as she was sitting in the street in the wake of a ‘verbal argument’ with her boyfriend.

    The stranger introduced himself as Jason, asked the distressed woman, who is now 35, what was wrong before offering her a place to stay for the night.

    But when they got to the location he told her they would have to climb through an unlocked window as he had lost his keys, according to a court filings.

    ‘They both sat on a bed and talked. She states that ‘Jason’ told her he wanted to have sex with her. And at that time she told him that she wanted to leave,’ the complaint states.

    ‘Jason then struck her on the face and placed both his hands around her neck. He began to apply pressure around her neck. He told her she was going to do what he said or he was going to shoot her.’

    The victim did not see a gun during the June 23, 2013, assault but 6ft 4, 305lb Billingsley did produce a knife as he began ripping off her clothes.

    ‘He told her to get on her knees in front of him. She stated that she complied and got on her knees in fear he would harm her.’

    After forcing the petrified woman to perform oral sex Billinglsey stole $53 from her wallet, the complaint states.

    […] Billingsley committed his first assault in 2009 at age 18 before committing a second in 2011. He served a two-year prison sentence for the second attack.

    Despite facing as much as 30 years in prison, Billingsley was released early in Oct 2022 after just 7 years on “good-time credits” under Soros-funded State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby.

    WBAL is reporting that Billingsley is also now wanted by police “in connection to an attempted murder, arson and rape that occurred on Sept. 19 in the 800 block of Edmonson Avenue.”

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/jason-billingsley-suspect-wanted-in-murder-of-tech-ceo-strangled-and-raped-woman-at-knifepoint-in-2013-after-posing-as-a-good-samaritan

    1. “Soros-funded”

      +1 for the article using that phrase, because the #Noticing will continue.

      This Hungarian born, but not ethnically Hungarian individual sure seems to hate white people, Europeans, Americans, Christians, but you’re not supposed to #Notice that, because reasons.

      1. She likely had it all over her home as well. How many signs in the windows? How many on the lawn? She probably even invited him in when he came to the door.

        In the debate about nature or nurture, I would like to add this case as evidence. However, if given another chance, I doubt she would do anything differently. Regardless, she probably would have clotted up soon anyway. Nature has a way of correcting it’s mistakes.

    3. “The stranger introduced himself as Jason, asked the distressed woman, who is now 35, what was wrong before offering her a place to stay for the night.”

      Sh!t for brains.

      1. “Sh!t for brains.”

        True.

        But even people who suffer from this affliction have a right to be protected from a monster who was sentenced to three decades in prison for strangling and raping a woman at knifepoint in 2013 and released after serving only 7 years because of Soros-funded State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby’s “good-time credits.”

      2. But ‘ya see, Jason didn’t do it. Ask him, and he’ll tell you, “There’s a monster inside me that I can’t control.”

    1. https://www.foxnews.com/us/college-students-struggle-us-credit-card-debt-hits-record-high

      U.S. Credit card debt recently hit a record $1 trillion and research shows that 42% of college students are a large part of that number.

      Financial experts say we’re seeing more people struggle with their finances and use credit cards for basic living expenses. University of Houston student Zarek Rashid says it can be especially tough for college students like himself.

      “College is already expensive enough. I have a considerable amount of credit card debt, and I’m able to just barely manage it” Rashid said.

      He and other college students across the U.S. say they’re struggling to keep up with their credit card payments.

      Research shows more than 4 in 10 college students say they are trying to pay off some type of credit card debt. University of Houston’s Beaur College of Business’ Financial Expert John Lopez says it’s because their balances have largely increased.

      “Credit card debt is rising for college students as well” Lopez said. “The APRs for people that don’t have a credit history tend to be higher, and college students fit into that.”

      Wakell Johnson is a University of Houston student. He says he notices many of his peers depending heavily on credit. Students and financial experts say with inflation affecting most industries, many college students feel forced to put essential expenses on credit.

      “People are trying to buy cars, people are trying to buy streaming services. Food even is expensive” Johnson said.

      And, increased annual percentage rates and interest is putting them in a bind.

      “For the past 18 months, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates dramatically” Lopez said. Rashid said this is his biggest struggle when it comes to maintaining good-standing with creditors.

      “In additional to APRs going up, just because of the accumulation of debt, interest payments are just naturally higher– to the point that an interest payment will be equivalent to if not more than a regular payment on a credit card” Rashid said.

      Lopez says higher living costs, interest and APRs aren’t solely causing the credit card debt struggles. He says it’s a combination of these factors and a lack of financial knowledge.

      “I think the mindset it, ‘I will accumulate the debt now, and pay it once I graduate. So, that’s something consider, what is the earning potential of my education, and can it suffice the debt I’m taking on?” Lopez said.

      (And lastly …)

      According to a new survey from Intelligent.com, only 46% of college students work in the fields they received degrees in.

      1. “only 46% of college students work in the fields they received degrees in.”

        Not a great statistic. I don’t work in the field I received my degree in either.

  13. 10yr yield closing in on 4.7. My prediction is we’ll have 30yr mortgage rates in the mid 8’s by the end of October. Good luck soaking up all that new inventory.

    1. “…is we’ll have 30yr mortgage rates in the mid 8’s by the end of October….”

      Very possible.

      $1T in credit card debt.

      Even Jamie Dimon is nervous.

      [start fantasy]
      Don’t worry, be happy. It will all work itself out.
      [end fantasy]

    2. I don’t know how anyone but the superrich or investment corporations can afford to buy now in San Diego. Everything is priced north of $1 million, with first year interest alone on an million dollar 8% 30-year mortgage approaching $80,000. Then there are insurance, taxes, depreciation, maintenance, purchase transation fees, etc.

      I don’t see how this all pencils out unless prices become still more unaffordable from here.

          1. I tried to watch the video with Adam Taggart. But I find Adam’s long-winded stammering just too hard to listen to for any length of time. I’ll listen in smaller bits.

    1. LIVE UPDATES
      Updated Thu, Sep 28 2023 9:36 AM EDT
      S&P 500 is little changed as rising bond yields keep investors on edge: Live updates
      Lisa Kailai Han
      Alex Harring
      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 10, 2020.
      Spencer Platt | Getty Images

      The S&P 500 was flat Thursday as surging rates continued to worry investors as they have during what’s been a very weak month and quarter for stocks.

      The broader market index traded just above the flatline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 43 points, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite
      dipped 0.3%.

      The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hit a fresh 15-year high in early trading Thursday as data out Thursday showed a still resilient labor market with jobless claims coming in less than expected. The stock market has been taking its cues from the bond market lately with any surge in rates raising worries about a recession and sending equities to new lows. The S&P 500 hit the lowest since June this week as the 10-year yield hit its highest since 2007.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

    2. DOW 30 +0.25%
      S&P 500 +0.36%
      NASDAQ 100 +0.27%

      The stock market outlook ‘rhymes with 2008’ as headwinds continue to pile up, JPMorgan’s quant guru says
      Matthew Fox
      Sep 27, 2023, 12:03 PM PDT
      Reuters / John Gress

      – JPMorgan’s top quant guru is taking a victory lap as the S&P 500 nears his 4,200 price target.

      – But JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic doesn’t think the pain is over yet for stock market investors.

      – “History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes with 2008,” he said of his stock market outlook.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

      1. It does seem like some serious rhyming. I remember leading leading up to 2008 in the ‘06 & ‘07 time periods there was still plenty of optimism flying around even though there were signs everywhere screaming danger ahead. Sometimes when I stop and think about it, it’s mind boggling that we’re right back in the same dang pickle again. I mean we made movies and documentaries about it. Yet here we are. History is gonna laugh it’s a$$ off at us.

        1. ‘still plenty of optimism flying around even though there were signs everywhere screaming danger ahead’

          The statement about manias: ‘people lose their minds in herds, gain them back one by one’ applies. You will have true believers in some proportion right up until the dam breaks.

          1. And hang the blame on subprime so everyone thinks it’s fixed. Meanwhile you just give it another guise to wear and keep on keeping on.

  16. “Last month, Blackstone sold its entire Manhattan multifamily portfolio for $142M — a 43% loss from when it was purchased in 2015.””

    The strategies of the past decade aren’t working any more. Housing units are no longer making money on equity appreciation. It’s not worth the hassle of renting units out for 5% profit when you can get that same 5% with a T-bill. And you can no longer roll the loans over at 2%, buying time for things to get better. If “higher for longer” is the new mantra from the Mouth of Jay, then selling at a loss is probably the best option.

      1. The institutional invests and hedge funds will soon come to the same conclusion in the stock market. Why risk a 10-20% loss when you can get 5% guaranteed over the next 1-2 years?

        2. And at that point, expect cryptocurrencies to drop to near nothing. The crypto bros are depending on both “adoption”* and institutional investing to skyrocket the value of crypto. They will get neither.

          ———–
          *They keep using an inapplicable definition of “adoption.”

  17. How things have changed:

    Democratic strongholds are struggling to keep helping the surge of migrants in their cities and states — and it’s sparking anxiety in the party about potential fallout heading into the 2024 election cycle.

    New York Mayor Eric Adams’ tussle with the White House over an influx of migrants from red states has famously soured his relationship with President Joe Biden. But he’s far from the only blue state official pushing back, as public pressure and budget concerns rise in Illinois, Massachusetts and beyond.

    “You’re hearing sentiments that are not dissimilar from what you would hear at [Donald] Trump rallies where asylum-seekers are referred to as illegals,” Chicago Alderperson Andre Vasquez, who heads the Chicago City Council’s Committee on Immigrant and Refugee Rights, said in an interview. “There are people who are saying ‘the Democratic Party isn’t doing anything for us’ and ‘look at what we’re stuck with.’”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/dems-struggling-migrants-turn-ire-090000579.html

    Chicago residents demand resources for South, West Side as city focuses on migrant crisis

    The group believes funding going towards migrants would be better spent on existing residents of the South and West sides. They’re calling on city leaders to shift their attention and dollars to struggling Black neighborhoods.

    “For them to be sympathetic to their needs, saying it’s a humanitarian issue crisis when Black people have had a humanitarian crisis for housing, employment and everything else,” community organizer Jessica Jackson said. “How do we get pushed to the back?”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/chicago-residents-demand-resources-for-south-west-side-as-city-focuses-on-migrant-crisis/ar-AA1hmPHD#image=1

    Shelters for migrants are filling up across Germany as attitudes toward the newcomers harden

    Dozens of people from around the world lined up on a sunny morning this week in front of a former mental health hospital in Berlin to apply for asylum in Germany.

    There were two older women from Moldova. A young man from Somalia sat next to them on a bench. A group of five young Pakistanis chatted loudly, standing behind two pregnant women from Vietnam.

    The newcomers are among more than 10,000 migrants who have applied for asylum in the German capital this year, and are coming at a time when Berlin is running out of space to accommodate them.

    While Germans welcomed asylum seekers with flowers, chocolates and toys when they first arrived in 2015, and many opened their homes to house Ukrainians in 2022, the mood toward new arrivals has profoundly changed since then.

    “After two years of the (coronavirus) crisis, then the Ukraine war with its increasing prices for basically everything — heating, gas, also food — it’s sometimes pretty tough to convince people that they have to share places and capacities with people who just arrived,” Langenbach said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/shelters-for-migrants-are-filling-up-across-germany-as-attitudes-toward-the-newcomers-harden/ar-AA1hnjed

    Germany is going to have to get used to the AfD

    The AfD has been underestimated in Germany for some time. When it first came to prominence in the 2017 federal elections, winning a stunning 12 per cent vote share, Germans were shocked, but thought the party wouldn’t last. The refugee crisis of 2015-16 was still fresh in voters’ minds, and many presumed the populists would fade away when immigration became less salient.

    In the end, that didn’t happen. Today, the party is the second strongest in the country, only behind the centre-right CDU. For the first time in modern history the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is in charge of a party that is third in the polls.

    The AfD’s success comes as Scholz’s so-called traffic-light coalition – with his red Social Democrats, yellow Liberals and Greens – looks increasingly helpless. His government – the first three party coalition since the Weimar Republic in the 1930s – is polling at record lows, with 73 per cent of Germans unsatisfied with it.

    Is the AfD a danger to the democratic system? Should the party be banned as many on the left want? The AfD’s official manifesto doesn’t make for radical reading, at least not by British standards. Large parts would go down well with the right wing of the Tory party. It calls for more traditional (family) values and tends to support free market policies, and less uncontrolled migration and EU integration. The AfD despises wokism and climate change missionaries and calls for a focus on national interests and more direct democracy. During the pandemic it spoke of a ‘corona dictatorship’. The party is also deeply suspicious of Nato and is pro-Russian, as are many Germans in the former communist East.

    https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/09/germany-is-going-to-have-to-get-used-to-the-afd/

    1. “Democratic strongholds ”

      … are already so blue that the immigrant crisis won’t really move the needle. Maybe Abbot should bus immigrants to blue cities in purple states — I’m thinking Philly, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill, Vegas, Grand Rapids. (I’d say Northern Virginia but that’s already overrun.) Start building shelters for these young men near the teenage daughters of those suburban virtue-signalers. That might make some waves.

    3. The Democrat Party mayor of El Paso just announced he is sending buses of criminal invaders to Denver.

      Home Depot on Santa Fe near Alameda, you can hire UNDERAGE LABOR for your jobs. No taxes, no pesky OSHA regs.

      Denver mayor Johnston doesn’t care.

      1. Just think about how many invaders are on the streets of El Paso. I’m sure the Dem Mayor can’t hire enough buses.

        And winter is coming. I hope they show the invaders freezing their azzes off on Venezuelan TV.

      2. Even Denver is sending buses to Chicago now. It’s all a total clusterf*ck. It’s hard not to laugh at Chicago though, they are all in a twist over 15,000 arrivals. In the grand scheme of things that is nothing. California has 10,000,000 foreign born. It is interesting to dig into the numbers though. They are burning cash on their ‘crisis’ like there’s no tomorrow, however, there will be a tomorrow and it will include 5-7 more bus loads of ‘asylum seekers’. Mayor Brandon was asked yesterday if Chicago would remain a sanctuary city and he immediately said yes. Chicago clearly needs more enrichment.

  18. A reader sent these in:

    Let’s do some maths, shall we. What’s the biggest issue around the CRE debacle? It’s concentration. 700 US small banks are in breach of the FDIC 2006 concentration guideline. That’s their CRE risk relative to their B/S. Small banks collectively own over 70% of CRE loans = $ 2 t. Of which 3/4 are coming up for refinancing by 2025 at H4L sky high rates while occupancy is still falling, and not only in offices. Obviously these loans are marked nowhere close to where end losses will end up being. Many more banks will get wiped-out.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1707039265291424010

    Housing affordability declined to its lowest level on record in July after a major shift in the data – Atlanta Fed

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1707036066161533329

    I hate to break it to everyone but this is the worst ERP in 22 years… you are guaranteed to lose money in equities over a medium term horizon. Risks are much higher than in any other point in the last 22 years with QT, high real rates, margin squeeze, inventory unwind, risk of fiscal retrenchment, etc…But you are not compensated for these risks

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1706977472347091292

    Mortgage backed securities back at October 2022 lows

    https://twitter.com/LastBearStandng/status/1707085999472304290

    Can we have you and @Econimica discuss the difference in data on this?

    https://twitter.com/KyleHess/status/1707059782564430086

    My takeaway, there’s never been more housing units per capita and likely never been fewer of them up for sale per capita.

    https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1707066457400709495

    Just for fun (and to focus on native born & exclude immigrants…just for a moment).
    1st chart of 25-34yr/old US native born, potential 1st-time home-buying population set against the housing units under construction. Interesting, no?
    2nd chart is same native born 25-34yr/old population set against the total US housing units (total housing unit data available only back to 2000). Still, consider that US added 19 million housing units from ’05 to YE ’23…while potential homebuyers grew by a little less than 7 million. Not conclusive one way or the other…just think it’s helpful to see this “housing shortage” vs “affordability crisis” debate from different angles.

    https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1706932462440554835

    IMHO, you are overly optimistic. The housing market is currently frozen and the new home builders are lying about sales (legally) while continuing to build. This coming crash will be multiple times worse than the 08 housing crash.

    https://twitter.com/tracyjarchow/status/1707063434251219059

    Kashkari “If these downside scenarios hit US economy, we might have to do less w/our monetary policy to bring inflation back down to 2% because the government shutdown or the auto strike may slow the economy for us. I’m not hoping for that, but there’s an interaction there.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1706993251658375376

    US housing affordability is worse today than the peak of the last housing bubble. The median American household would need to spend 43.8% of their income to afford the median priced home, a record high.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1707024743491051918

    The US Money Supply fell 3.7% over the last year, a record 9th consecutive month with a YoY decline.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1706776899333087502

    The longest duration bond ETF is now down 62% from its peak in March 2020. How is that possible? The 30-Year Treasury yield has moved from an all-time low of 0.8% in March 2020 up to 4.7% today.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1706741236063666247

    Hungarian tourists visiting San Francisco had their rental car broken into, and all their belongings were stolen on the last day of their trip.

    https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1707126891382284585

    Banks are in far worse financial shape now on their residential mortgage books then they were in 2008. Back then banks only lost money on the small percent of borrowers who defaulted on their mortgages. Now banks are losing money on every borrower who pays their mortgage on time!

    https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1707156959152029737

    Yellen: Maybe now’s not the best time to ask – but can I interest y’all in a couple trillion of new issuance? Bond market: 🤮

    https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1704835729728196731

    Whoever controls the volume of currency in our country is absolute master of all industry & commerce. When you realise that the entire system is very easily controlled by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation & depression originate.

    https://twitter.com/Ben__Rickert/status/1704793789108543561

    Costco, $COST, is selling one-ounce gold bars and they are selling out within a few hours, per CNBC.

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1707157253223055576

    San Francisco Real Estate 📉

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1706315362252304507

    The chickens 🐔 are coming home to roost or Stocks will come down to Fed 🏛 liquidity

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1706625156485906811

    What I thought $1,000,000 would get me as a kid, versus reality.

    https://twitter.com/SallyMayweather/status/1707023463314083991

    1. “Costco, $COST, is selling one-ounce gold bars and they are selling out within a few hours, per CNBC.”

      —–
      KEY POINTS [from the CNBC article]
      + Costco is selling 1 ounce gold PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan bars.
      + Costco Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti said the bars are in hot demand and don’t last long when in stock.
      + Gold has risen more than 15% over the past year and more than 55% over the past five years.”

      Here’s a bit more info from The Daily Mail:

      “Costco has seemingly seized this moment, rolling out two 24-karat varieties of gold bars from Rand Refinery, for $1,949, and PAMP Suisse, for $1,979. Both bars are reportedly valued slightly more than gold futures, which on Wednesday sat at $1,890.70 per oz.”
      ———

      Hmm. Costco has a limit of 2 bars/household. Even if you can score a bar (it seems they’re always out of stock), in the end you’re only saving about a hundred bucks vs. a reputable online dealer. IMO a better strategy is to simply skip one overpriced dinner/movie out, and use the savings to buy what you want when you want.

      3. in the end you’re only saving about a hundred bucks vs. a reputable online dealer

        Actually not saving anything vs. reputable dealers on ebay.

      4. I can’t help but wonder if general sales are falling off and this is just a scheme to boost the sales numbers enough to fake the reports. The whole thing is odd.

    2. The housing market is currently frozen and the new home builders are lying about sales (legally) while continuing to build.

      I recall this happened last time: the builder boyz kept building even though there was no demand.

      1. Like last time, they’ll build until they have to bulldoze their last remaining houses. And i say build away because these guys lead the way in price declines. Like last time, once their incentives are tapped out then the slashing begins. I think thats where we’re currently at. Although I am seeing many builders trying to rent their inventory which is an interesting wrinkle that reeks of desperation.

  21. From the listing description: “Ready to get your HGTV on? Check out this Great Investment Opportunity!”. Also: “Rough estimates are $40k to finish the home. Then someone should have a $300k-$350k property in a location that has no rental restrictions”.

    Not disclosed in the lengthy description is that the owner is also the listing realtor. It appears they want to toss this turd to another greater fool. This property looks like a mobile home to me. That neighborhood is loaded with older mobile homes, many in various stages of disrepair.

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5968-Capitol-Dr-Gulf-Breeze-FL-32563/47889082_zpid/

    Sale Date Sale Price
    08/08/2023 $150,000
    01/27/2020 $60,000
    06/01/2000 $55,000

    1. The obvious is question is that if this property is so close to being a palace, why doesn’t he do it himself? You’re right, red flag.

      It does look kinda like a double wide with a few additions on it. And how did it get so trashed for being built in 1990? I’ve seen far better stuff that’s a lot older.

      1. The obvious is question is

        I do wonder what could require 100% new drywall, flooring and electrical on a 30 yr old house out in the middle of Pensacola Bay just a little above sea level.

    3. “This property looks like a mobile home to me.”

      The place right across the street or dirt road is a mobile home. My question about that place is what’s in all the Hefty construction clean up bags piled up between the tire swing and the mobile home?

  27. ‘Chicago! Denver!’ Invading Illegals Declare Sanctuary Cities They Plan to Inhabit

    By Infowars.com Thursday, September 28, 2023

    Footage from the southern U.S. border in El Paso, Texas, shows hordes of military-aged male illegal aliens announcing the sanctuary cities they plan to invade, with many declaring “Chicago” as their preferred destination.

    https://www.newswars.com/chicago-denver-invading-illegals-declare-sanctuary-cities-they-plan-to-inhabit/

  28. ‘Speaking of The Californication’s listing, he said ‘At this price, with some negotiation room, we don’t even make money’

    Yer not going to get 38M Brandon. I look forward to yer torment in multiple articles like all the other LA super lux shack flippers over the years.

  30. ‘During the summer, buyers were running into sellers who were standing their ground on price’

    Hold yer ground!

    ‘Now, as more listings arrive, some homeowners who have a more urgent need to sell are trimming their asking prices. But even as properties are discounted, buyers are having a hard time qualifying for a mortgage at the amount they were hoping for…‘The buyers simply don’t have the money and can’t get the money’

    Well fudge.

  31. ‘In the freehold market, sellers of semi-detached houses that were fetching $1.5-million last year may be accepting offers of $1.3-million. ‘We would have been insulted by that not long ago’

    Yer right Scott, that would have been 2 or 3 months ago. Things change quick in a dead cat bounce.

    1. I’ll bet that if the Lampedusan’s went vigilante and dealt with the invaders that they would find themselves facing troops armed to the teeth rushing to defend the invaders.

  35. ‘At the luxury end, there are areas that simply have not lived up to the hype, like parts of North Coogee. Builder Dale Alcock forked out $2.97 million for a North Coogee block in 2007 and sold it last year for $1.6 million — a $1.37 million loss’

    Dale:

    via GIPHY

  38. Entire U.S. Treasury yield curve moves toward or above 5%, raising risk something may break
    Provided by Dow Jones
    Sep 27, 2023 12:52 PM PDT
    By Vivien Lou Chen

    On a day devoid of any major market-moving news, investors sent yields in the roughly $25 trillion Treasury market closer to or further above 5% on Wednesday. It isn’t the level of yields that may prove to be problematic as much as it is the speed with which they got there, with the pace only accelerating since the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement last Wednesday, analysts said.
    …
    https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230927444/entire-us-treasury-yield-curve-moves-toward-or-above-5-raising-risk-something-may-break

    2. 09/28/23 08:57 AM EDT

      Housing Slowdown = Recession Catalyst

      Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today’s Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha. If you’re interested in learning more about the Hedgeye-Tier 1 Alpha partnership, there’s more information here.

      Housing Slowdown = Recession Catalyst – 9.28.23

      The ripple effects of rising interest rates are becoming glaringly evident, not just within the U.S. but globally. Germany is witnessing a record decline in real home prices, falling almost 25% from 2020 peaks—a trend mirrored in the U.S., as showcased in today’s bonus chart. Yet, paradoxically, homes have never been more out of reach for many. With a 30-year fixed mortgage now at 7.78%, homes today, even post-price adjustments, are less affordable than in notable years like 2008 and 1989. To realign home affordability with its 25-year average, we’d need a combination of home prices to drop by 28% and a reduction of over 400 basis points in 30-year mortgages or a healthy 60% surge in household incomes.

      The repercussions of a housing market slowdown can’t be understated. About 2.9% of the U.S. workforce—equating to 7.8 million individuals—are in construction, with an additional 1.6 million working as realtors. Historically, shifts in the housing sector have been pivotal in catalyzing recessions.
      …
      https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/140022-housing-slowdown-recession-catalyst?type=macro%2Cmarket-insights

      1. “To realign home affordability with its 25-year average, we’d need a combination of home prices to drop by 28% and a reduction of over 400 basis points in 30-year mortgages or a healthy 60% surge in household incomes.”

        LMFAO! That certainly ties a bow around the situation at hand.

        I wonder which of those adjustments will eventually realign prices with fundamentals? Some hints:

        1) “Higher for longer” suggests it ain’t gonna be a 400 bps drop in 30-yr mortgage rates.

        2) A 60% increase in household incomes? “If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.”

        Which leaves
        3) Home prices to drop by 28%

        1. “…homes today, even post-price adjustments, are less affordable than in notable years like 2008 and 1989”

          Btw, 1989 is when I first gave thought to buying a home. I did well by instead purchasing longterm Treasurys, which I sold for a capital gain after rates dropped during the ensuing recession.

  39. Evergrande: Anxious Chinese home buyers reel from crisis
    Published 1 hour ago
    A housing complex under construction by Chinese property developer Evergrande is seen in Wuhan, in China’s central Hubei province on September 28, 2023.Image source, Getty Images
    Image caption,
    Evergrande’s bankruptcy has exposed the real estate crisis in China
    By Yan Chen & Frances Mao
    in Hong Kong and Singapore

    “When I think about it, I cry,” says Mrs Guo about the home she had bought. “It’s hard, and I feel sorry for my son and myself.”

    In 2021, just months before the Chinese property giant Evergrande showed the first signs of crisis, Guo Tianran (whose name has been changed on request) and her husband bought an apartment off-plan for their only child from the top-selling developer.

    The couple, nearing their 60s, had scrimped to afford the $30,000 (£24,500) down payment on the yet-to-be-built flat. They bit the bullet in pledging to use 75% of their income to pay for the mortgage.

    “We wanted to help our son, to give him a place to start out on once he graduates from college,” Mrs Guo told the BBC earlier this month. But just months after their purchase, Evergrande’s facade began to crack.
    …
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66956769

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