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Most Buyers Are Still Trying To Bargain Prices Down While Some Owners Have Realised They Were Over-Optimistic And Are Willing To Cut Prices

A report from KELO. “Building permits issued in South Dakota in the second quarter of 2023 were down 37% from the previous year, said Aaron Scholl, assistant professor of economics at Northern State University in Aberdeen. That’s more than twice the amount of downturn reported nationally (15.1%) and reflects a sharp turn from South Dakota’s building boom of 2020-2022. Brandon Martens, a Sioux Falls real estate agent, said the numbers show the housing market leveling off after the ‘anomaly’ period of 2020-22, when post-pandemic stimulus money kickstarted the economy. In some cases, he said, year-over-year declines are misleading because the market is reverting to a place volume-wise ‘where we should have been in the first place.’ ‘But there are definitely people in the Realtor world that are struggling right now,’ Martens added. ‘They’re trying to find out where that next buyer or seller is coming from just because the market has shifted so much in the last couple of years.'”

“‘When I sort of gaze into my crystal ball and try to see where the housing sector is going to be for the next year or two, it’s not great,’ said Jared McEntaffer, a former economics professor at Penn State University. ‘We had so much rapid price growth that it’s going to be hard for that to unwind very quickly. Expectations are very anchored at higher price levels, and people that are in their homes are not going to want to lower the prices. There’s a new normal out there.'”

ABC 11 Raleigh in North Carolina. “Home loan applications fell to the lowest level since 1995 last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Compass Realtor Danni Dichito works with a lot of first-time home buyers and many are pressing the pause button. ‘They’ve said ‘You know what, I’m not being qualified and getting qualified for what I want in a home,’ so they’re waiting. The payments are too, too much,’ said Dichito. She said new construction is still a good option mostly because builders are motivated to move inventory. Some companies are offering price reductions or low financing. ‘Buyers are able to get a really awesome interest rate that we haven’t seen in over a year’s time,’ Dichito said.”

WFSB in Connecticut. “The subject of an I-Team investigation faces criminal charges after police say he took $300,000 from a couple from New Jersey to build a home, but never did. In fact, according to the couple’s civil lawsuit, he never even owned the property he said he would build on. Walking into the Avon Police Department with his bail bondsman, William Ferrigno, owner of Sunlight Construction, had nothing to say. Ferrigno is currently facing several lawsuits by prospective homeowners, alleging he took deposits for homes but failed to build them, in Simsbury, Burlington and Avon. But it’s one case in Avon, he’s now facing larceny charges for.”

“According to the lawsuit, a New Jersey couple says they gave Ferrigno and sunlight construction $300,000 to build them a home on Windsor Court in Avon. This was in August 2022. In May of this year, the couple says they learned the property they had paid for was sold to someone else. According to the lawsuit, Ferrigno never owned the property and although he told them at the time they signed their contract, he had been in the process of buying the property from someone else – he never did. The couple says they have not received their money back. The I-Team reported earlier this week that Ferrigno faces 26 civil legal actions, including allegations of stolen deposits, as well as several foreclosures and businesses alleging he failed to pay them for work.”

The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. “After skyrocketing to unprecedented levels in recent years, home values are leveling out in Tampa Bay — but it may take time for buyers to reap any benefit. The average home value for the region has dropped 1.79% since last year, a Tampa Bay Times analysis of Zillow data found. This change is significantly lower than during the pandemic — when the prices appreciated 28% in a year — or any time in the last decade. Experts say the change is largely due to a peak in prices, which escalated dramatically during the pandemic. ‘It’s really an affordability situation,’ said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow. ‘In some markets, prices were basically growing almost exponentially … Tampa being one of them. Affordability just got out of hand, disqualifying many potential prospective homebuyers.'”

“Many parts of Tampa Bay that experienced sharp appreciation during the pandemic are now seeing the steepest declines. For example, in ZIP code 33579, which includes parts of Riverview, home values climbed 24% from 2020 to 2021, and another 34% the following year. But in the last year, values went down almost 7% — more than any other local ZIP code. ‘Those markets that were the least expensive really appreciated the most,’ said Kristine Smale, a senior vice president for the real estate analytics firm Zonda. ‘That’s where the land was available and builders were pushing prices.’ Tampa Bay is not alone: Home values are now dropping in roughly half of U.S. metro areas, Divounguy said — especially those that developed more housing in recent years. In addition to the values simply peaking, he said, the addition of new units has moderated growing prices.”

From DS News. “According to new data from Redfin, the median U.S. asking rent rose 0.4% year-over-year to $2,011 in September—the sixth straight month in which rents were little changed from a year earlier. Prior to that, rent growth had been slowing rapidly for roughly a year, coming back down to earth after a surge in prices during the pandemic. The median asking rent fell 2% from a month earlier in September.As rising rental supply leads to rising vacancies, many landlords are handing out concessions, such as a free month’s rent, to attract tenants without having to lower asking rents on paper.”

“‘Last year, conversations with home sellers were hard. I had a lot of discussions about how they needed to lower their price expectations because the market had turned,’ said David Palmer, a Redfin Premier Real Estate Agent in Seattle. ‘But this year, they have a better understanding of the market. We’re now having the property management conversation earlier: ‘Do you have a rental plan if we can’t sell your home?’”

The Orange County Register. “The gap between what California tenants pay and nationwide rents narrowed during the pandemic era. This rent metric shows price drops in eight California cities since 2019. The three largest declines were in the Bay Area – Oakland ($1,571, off 19%), San Francisco ($2,203, off 16%) and Mountain View ($2,504, off 8%).”

Bisnow Dallas Fort Worth in Texas.”Office tenants in DFW are asking to take a closer look at their landlords’ books as a wave of distress threatens to upend the market. Landlords have in the past been reluctant to disclose financial documents, said Jihane Boury, vice chairman at Savills North America. But as interest rates rise and a wall of office maturities looms, savvy brokers are inquiring about those items upfront. Tenants are voting with their feet if they don’t like what they see, according to Boury and other speakers at a Bisnow event last week. ‘The tables have totally turned,’ Boury said. ‘Even though landlords are still wanting to perform due diligence on their tenants, we are looking out for our clients, especially in the next wave of leasing the market will experience.'”

“Lenders filed foreclosure notices on three Dallas-area office buildings in mid-August, and in late September, Pillarstone Capital reported it had defaulted on its loan for a 253K SF office building in Uptown. ‘The explosive nature of interest over the last six months is really unprecedented,’ said Ramsey March, partner at Stream Realty Partners. ‘Budgets are being exploited from an interest perspective, and if [a building] didn’t have the right rate cap, if it didn’t have a financial strategy or plan in place going in … then there may be owners and developers that didn’t realize what kind of trouble they are in.'”

The Record in Canada. “Three city councils want the number of new homes built to double over the next decade, to help end a housing crisis. But the construction of new homes is tumbling instead as condo buyers take a pause. The 10-year pledge requires the construction of 7,000 homes in Waterloo Region per year on average, starting last year. That’s double the pace of new homes built in the three cities in the previous 10 years. Investors have largely stopped buying condos, deterred by a sharp rise in borrowing costs, said Geoff McMurdo, chief administrator of Activa, a prominent homebuilding firm. ‘A lot of companies just said, ‘You know what, this is not a good time to sell. So we’re not going to launch a project,’ McMurdo said. ‘If you had to put it down to one thing, it’s interest rates. Interest rates are scaring away buyers.'”

“Waterloo Mayor Dorothy McCabe points to several big apartment projects that are approved but stalled. One example is the proposed 25-storey condo highrise at 70 King St. N. It was approved five years ago with a different design but remains a hole in the ground while the developer seeks more buyers.”

From Dutch News. “Swedish real estate investor Heimstaden is selling off thousands of homes in the Netherlands. In total, some 12,000 homes in the Netherlands will be sold as soon as their tenant leaves, a process which may take 10 years, the company says. Heimstaden has a portfolio of some 13,500 residential properties in the Netherlands, most of which are rent-controlled. According to the FD, Heimstaden has to sell the properties because it needs cash to refinance debts.”

“This is something Heimstaden denied in a press statement last week. ‘These actions are solely aimed at preserving our desired rating and are unrelated to any capital requirement for upcoming maturities, which currently does not exist,’ the statement said. Last week, the company also sold its Icelandic portfolio. In 2019 Heimstaden bought over 9,500 Dutch homes from British investment group Round Hill for €1.4bn, the biggest deal ever agreed in the Netherlands in terms of the number of properties.”

From Scoop. “A pre-election snapshot of the New Zealand property market reveals a softer-than-expected ‘spring swing’ has begun. Vanessa Williams, spokesperson for, says it is typical for Kiwis to hold off on making significant financial decisions in the face of uncertainty: ‘We are talking about the higher end of the market, where there is less demand. Homes priced over $2 million tend to spend more than twice as long on our site than those priced closer to the national average asking price, telling me that demand is not currently satisfying supply in this area of the market.’ Vanessa says this could be a side effect of the election. A pause as Kiwis wait to enter the polling booths. However, compared to September last year, average asking prices were down 5.3% nationally and by varying degrees in most regions.” in Australia. “A Queensland family is furious after their insurance claim for a defective house was rejected because the state insurer didn’t have enough time to review their case. Dad-of-five Justin Herald, from Broadbeach Waters in the Gold Coast, forked out $2.4 million to move his family into a three-storey house in July last year. The 53-year-old knew the home was still within its warranty period and pretty soon they realised it had serious waterproofing problems which led to black mould proliferating the entire upstairs of the house. ‘This is a master scam,’ Mr Herald told ‘There’s no incentive for them to actually do their job if they can hide behind this 28 day thing. That idiot builder has got away with everything.'”

South China Morning Post. “Last month’s package of relief measures from Beijing to bolster the beleaguered property market has not yet had a major impact on homebuyer confidence, with weak sales data and further house price declines expected. ‘Most buyers are still trying to bargain prices down while some owners have realised that they were over-optimistic a month ago and are willing to cut prices,’ said You Liangzhou, the owner of Shanghai property agency Baonuo.”

“Jack Zhang, a 40-year-old Shanghai resident, said he would take a wait-and-see attitude towards the housing market even though he is eager to upgrade to meet his family’s needs. ‘I have yet to decide whether it is a good time to sell my two-bedroom flat before buying a bigger home,’ he said. “My observations are that an increasing number of homeowners are looking to sell their flats and some of them will sooner or later offer price cuts if they are hungry for cash.'”

This Post Has 114 Comments
  1. ‘Last year, conversations with home sellers were hard. I had a lot of discussions about how they needed to lower their price expectations because the market had turned…But this year, they have a better understanding of the market. We’re now having the property management conversation earlier: ‘Do you have a rental plan if we can’t sell your home?’

    Can’t sell?

    1. 1) List for sale at ridiculous price
      2) List for rent at ridiculous price
      3) List for sale at lower but still ridiculous price
      4) List for rent at lower but still ridiculous price
      5) Repeat steps 3 and 4

      1. There are two empty houses on my block that I’m watching. The first one is the grandma-finally-died near-teardown house that was bought during the frenzy, cheaply renovated, failed to sell (IMO $25K too high), and finally was rented out. Those renters (immigrants of course) were there about a year and were slowly filling up the garage with construction junk. A couple weeks ago, looks like they moved out. Crickets since then. Not sure what’s happening there.

        For the other house, owners moved in August, did some cosmetic reno, went pending in 3 days, sold in three weeks (had to be cash), and again failed to rent. Once in a while a couple cars spend the day in the driveway, but again it’s all off market.

        I wonder how much money they are all losing on this?

        1. You wonder how much? Start with the 5.5% loss their cash would be paying them in a fixed income investment right now. Now deduct taxes and holding costs. Fix and repair. Depreciation of value in a falling market….how much? A lot! They’re idiots.

          1. I agree with the 5% opportunity cost, but the houses likely won’t need much fix-up for a while. That is, unless the renters themselves trash the house, the likelihood of which is pretty high. The second house has no basement, which is a real detriment in an immigrant neighborhood which likes to pack in more incomes to make the rent payment.

  2. Expectations are very anchored at higher price levels, and people that are in their homes are not going to want to lower the prices. There’s a new normal out there.’”

    Mr. Market doesn’t care about your “expectations,” greedheads. Your shack is only worth what a creditworthy buyer is prepared to offer for it.

    1. “Expectations are very anchored at higher price levels, and people that are in their homes are not going to want to lower the prices. There’s a new normal out there.’”

      Darth Powell 🦈🇺🇲🇺🇦🇵🇱🇫🇮 @GRomePow

      Home payments ALWAYS return to being affordable.

      [See chart]

      Last edited
      11:37 PM · Oct 8, 2023 · 715 Views


      – It’s intuitively obvious to the most casual observer that the Fed has once again destroyed affordability in the U.S. Housing market with their $ printing press, as prices are now the most unaffordable in history. Welcome to Housing Bubble (2.0). Sellers are still delusional and in denial about prices. See the Elisabeth Kübler-Ross 5 stages of grief. Current prices are at 3% interest rates, while current rates are 7.81% (30 yr., fixed rate mortgage). Note to sellers: Wake up and smell the coffee! Reality says prices are going down, like it or not.

      – This is also obviously not even remotely sustainable.

      – There are the principles of “reversion to the mean” and “long-term trends,” and not to mention “asset bubbles always burst,” and “it’s (not) different this time.”

      – U.S. housing and economic conditions are government policy, which includes their $ printing, enabling central bank, the Fed. Inflation, including asset inflation, is government policy. Sky high housing and stonk prices are due to the Fed’s “wealth effect,” which is just a euphemism for increasing the $ supply and financial repression of interest rates. It’s also a euphemism for the largest wealth transfer from the middle class to the elites in history. Cheap credit and nearly free $ is a direct cause of asset bubbles. Again, this is intentional, and leads to rampant speculation and FOMO.

      – Five stages of an asset bubble:
      1. Displacement
      2. Boom
      3. Euphoria
      4. Profit-Taking – You are here, and in early stages, in my view.
      5. Panic

      – $ printing is the road to perdition; it’s the ruination of a nation, and, using history as a guide, will only end in tears.

      – Free market, sound $ capitalism is the only system that raises all boats, but Socialists want power and control.

      Peter St Onge, Ph.D.
      How Paper Money Turns Governments into Predators
      Peter St Onge
      Oct 7, 2023

      “Aside from stealing your life savings and launching depressions, one of the nastier features of paper money is what it does to governments.”

      “In short, paper money transforms governments from parasite to predator. Because once a government can print what it likes, it no longer needs taxes.”

      “Meaning it no longer needs us.”

      “Since 2008 the printing has accelerated to the point that Covid lockdowns finally showed the world’s governments that they don’t need us anymore. Some even say it out loud: MMT proponent Stephanie Kelton has bragged how governments don’t really need taxes, so they should instead use taxes to punish carbon sinners and wrong-thinkers.”

      “For the past 50 years the world has flirted with hyperinflation. As I write this, there are 5 countries with annual inflation over 50%, including Turkey and Argentina. The largest economies in the world — the US and the EU — are returning to the double-digit inflation we thought we’d left behind in the 1970’s.”

      “The path from 10% inflation to hyperinflation isn’t direct — historically, it’s a ratchet that can go gradually over decades or quickly over years. But, going by the post-Nixon fiscal realities, they are going to hyperinflation as fast as voters will tolerate.”

      “How to fix it? Simple: back the currency with hard assets. Gold, silver, Bitcoin would all take the money printers away. Hard money would return us to the era when our governments wanted the same things we want today: prosperity, social harmony, peace. A people who are productive, ambitious, and industrious. Rather than a nation of irresponsible sheep.”

      “The state’s incentives should be aligned with ours: Governments should only succeed when we succeed. Paper money breaks this. It is already turning government from benevolent helper and protector to predatory beast. And the sooner we re-establish hard money, the sooner we can tame that beast.”

      1. This is also obviously not even remotely sustainable.

        Yeah yeah. I hear the “not sustainable” phrase from finance guys and environmentalists and politicians, and yet here we are, STILL sustaining for years on end.

        1. ‘I hear the “not sustainable” phrase from finance guys and environmentalists and politicians, and yet here we are, STILL sustaining for years on end’

          I’ve mentioned I went to high school in the 80’s with 16 YO guys that drove Maserati’s and 15 YO girls that got matching Mercedes for their birthdays. Oil was booming baby. It went on for years on end.

      2. Since 2008 the printing has accelerated to the point that Covid lockdowns finally showed the world’s governments that they don’t need us anymore.

        Aren’t they still paying a pile of interest on the $30T+ of debt and continue to borrow? I know the Treasury likes to occasionally float the idea of trillion dollar coins, but they still haven’t tried it yet, so perhaps the talk of MMT is still nothing more than braggadocio, as they know very well what will happen if they do that.

  3. For example, in ZIP code 33579, which includes parts of Riverview, home values climbed 24% from 2020 to 2021, and another 34% the following year. But in the last year, values went down almost 7% — more than any other local ZIP code.

    The Fed pumped $4.5 trillion in Yellen Bux “stimulus” into the financial system during the scamdemic, stealing value from every honestly earned dollar in existence and further inflating the Fed’s asset bubbles & Ponzi markets. True price discovery is going to lay waste to these fictitious shack valuations and the net worth of the idiots who bought at the peak of the scamdemic-era housing bubble.

    1. ‘values climbed 24% from 2020 to 2021, and another 34% the following year’

      That’s some sound lending right there.

    2. McCarthy gave Biden a blank check recently. The debt has risen two trillion in the last two months! Some would call this hyper while others would call it necessary spending. Sustainable? Why not? There is plenty of room for more zeroes on our cash. Anyway, Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter. I’m sure everything will be fine.

    1. Interesting take.

      “If I knew how, I’d short the real estate market. Right now. Because it’s pretty clear that home prices across the country will be falling for years.”

    1. Jacinda Ardern quietly exempted some NZ government employees from her draconian jab mandates.

    1. I still remember being about 2-3 weeks from the get jabbed or be fired date at work, when a judge overturned the mandate,

      1. My husband had to file for an “accommodation”. They aren’t even exemptions anymore. Your employer is graciously allowing you to maintain an income out of fear that they might lose the lawsuit they’d get served.

        1. I too filed for an exemption and hadn’t heard one way or the other if it would be granted by the time the mandate was overturned. I was affected by the Federal Contractor mandate, which was even more draconian than the OSHA mandate.

          Knowing that the Deep State wanted to force me into accepting an experimental shot still chills me to this day.

          I will never forget.

          1. I’m not sure which one my husband’s was. His company is contracted with a lot of governmental agencies….some of which were seriously involved in C19. We were mentally and emotionally preparing to be incomeless for a while.

            I’m glad you made it out ok.
            We’ll never, ever forget.

    2. “The Biden Administration is rewriting the history of COVID. Today, the head of OSHA claimed “we didn’t demand that anyone be fired” despite issuing a worker vaccine mandate for 84 million Americans that was struck down by the Supreme Court.”

      Everyone who supported this is guilty of medical genocide.

      1. Did they even bother to mention the millions of health care workers where the mandates were upheld by SCOTUS? If any of them were fired they would have grounds to demand a retraction from OSHA.

  4. US consumers cut back on credit cards as repayment charges hit record high

    A drop in credit card spending is raising concerns about the financial health of the US consumer and the outlook for holiday sales as cardholders face record-high interest charges.

    The fall in card spending comes as consumers’ finances are being strained by both higher interest rates and debt loads, particularly when it comes to borrowing on credit cards. This debt has been rising in the past year and recently topped $1tn for all Americans for the first time.

    “Credit card spending was soft in September, and what was notable was that softness was across all sectors,” said Citigroup economist Robert Sockin.

    Credit cards, unlike mortgages and other types of consumer credit, tend to have variable terms, and are among the first types of debt on which consumers feel the impact of rising rates.

    On Friday, the Federal Reserve reported that the average annual interest rate that consumers are paying on credit card balances hit a record high of 22.8 per cent at the end of August, up from 16.3 per cent a year ago.

    (If you click on the link for the article and you will, as a bonus, be presented with a neat chart.)

    1. Yahoo
      Yahoo Finance
      Stocks tumble as Middle East conflict rattles markets: Stock market news today
      Karen Friar
      October 9, 2023 at 6:34 AM·2 min read
      In this article:

      Stocks sank Monday as the Middle East conflict added a dose of geopolitical risk to the interest rate and inflation concerns already facing markets.

      At the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped roughly 0.2%. The S&P 500 lost about 0.5% while contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell nearly 1%.

      Islamist militant group Hamas launched a large-scale attack on Israel on Saturday, prompting a declaration of war in response. That has rattled markets, as investors worry that another full-blown conflict could join the war already being waged by Russia and Ukraine.

      “Geopolitical risk doesn’t tend to linger long in markets, but there are many second-order impacts that could come through in the weeks, months, and years ahead from this weekend’s developments,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

      Oil prices jumped as much as 5% after the attack amid speculation that key crude-producing countries in the region could be pulled into the fray. WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude futures were trading over 3% higher at last check as fighting enters its third day. Meanwhile, safe-havens gold and government bonds were in demand.

      A sustained rally in oil could add to the inflationary pressures that already have investors bracing for another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

    2. Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      Huge US government borrowing adds to bond market pain
      Big increase in issuance and stagnant demand has exacerbated drop in Treasury bond prices, say analysts
      The Treasury Building is seen in Washington, DC
      The scale of borrowing has not come as a surprise to bond investors; the Treasury department released its latest plans in August
      Kate Duguid in New York and Mary McDougall in London October 6 2023

      A step-up in borrowing by the US government has deepened a decline in bond markets that has sent yields to their highest point since 2007, analysts and investors say.

      Much of the recent bond rout reflects a shift in expectations about the future path of interest rates and economic expansion. Friday’s data showing strong US jobs growth heaped further pressure on bond prices, as it added to the anxiety that interest rates will need to stick at high levels to defeat inflation.

      But investors and analysts say a recent deluge of new debt hitting the market has also pushed yields higher, particularly on longer-dated bonds that have been hit hardest. Demand from big Treasury buyers such as foreign investors, foreign central banks and US banks has meanwhile remained stagnant.

    3. It seems like the Fed is warming up to save Wall Street’s bacon, as evidenced by two straight surprise bad news days when stocks sold off at the open, then mysteriously rallied by the close.

      1. 2 hours ago
        Stocks Head Higher After Dovish Rumblings By Fed Officials
        By Emily Dattilo

        Stocks have headed higher despite the conflict in the Middle East as Federal Reserve members make dovish rumblings.

        The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 203 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.5%. All three indexes were trading lower earlier in the day.

        The bond market is closed for Columbus Day, but futures tracking the 10-Year yield show levels have fallen from last week to 4.67%. Rising yields have weighed on stocks lately, so a downturn in yields is a positive sign.

        Dovish comments on the state of inflation in a speech from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also gave stocks a boost.

        “After increasing the target range for the federal funds rate by 525 basis points since early 2022, my view is that the FOMC is in a position to proceed carefully in assessing the extent of any additional policy firming that may be necessary,” Jefferson told the National Association for Business Economics in Dallas.

        Fed futures have now penciled in a 14.1% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s November meeting, down from 27.1% notched on Friday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

  5. So you’re scammed out of 300K upfront ,with a “signed” contract , to prove it….with nothing to show for it..The scammer didn’t even own the land…wow ,what suckers….I don’t see how a couple can be that dense , even if he was a real good talker…that they deserve being fleeced like a sheepie, is not the question, how they ever managed to get that kind of money together, is the remarkable part of this equation….

  6. (Forget it, Jake. It’s China.)

    Evergrande Creditors Call Pulled Debt Plan ‘Complete Surprise’

    A group of offshore creditors of China Evergrande Group said they were “left in the dark” after the developer scrapped a meeting for its multi-billion dollar restructuring plan, in the latest example of investor frustration with governance issues at some Chinese firms.

    (“Left in the dark”. Lol. What a bunch of dummies.)

    The holders of more than $6 billion of the defaulted builder’s offshore public bonds implored the company to resolve any regulatory issues with the country’s securities regulator and top economic planning agency, describing the development as a “complete surprise,” according to a press release Monday.

    The comments come after Evergrande said late last month that it was canceling key creditor meetings and must reassess its proposed restructuring. One of the major setbacks the builder cited was that it’s been unable to meet regulator qualifications to issue new bonds, which had been a crucial part of its restructuring proposal.

    The creditors’ complaint adds a new twist to Evergrande’s increasingly uncertain destiny, now that Chinese authorities also have launched a probe into founder Hui Ka Yan’s suspected crimes. The world’s most indebted developer with liabilities exceeding $300 billion will face an Oct. 30 court hearing in Hong Kong of a petition to liquidate the firm.

    The latest development also expands a growing list of distressed Chinese companies, including Evergrande’s industry peer Country Garden Holdings Co., that have faced criticism of weak governance and disclosure practices that are putting investors off the country’s borrowers longer-term.

    Evergrande’s position “that the restructuring cannot be implemented for regulatory reasons just does not add up,” according to the press release. “It is difficult to believe that NDRC would actually stop a distressed company from restructuring” by means of amending defaulted debt, it added, referring to the state planning agency National Development and Reform Commission.

    The ad hoc creditor group is advised by Moelis & Company Asia Ltd. and Kirkland & Ellis, and its members comprise international investors based in New York, London and Hong Kong, the release said.

    Evergrande’s shares fell 13% Monday, registering a four-day losing streak.

    “The ongoing uncertainty and lack of transparency surrounding Evergrande and its executives have exacerbated the nervousness and negative sentiment in the Chinese real estate sector,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

  7. A reader sent these in:

    Worst treasuries selloff since 1787 marks bond-vigilantes return: Carnage from the bond market—where the rout is worse than anything you’ll find in the history books—is spreading, and the implications are nasty. Massive deficits as far as the eye can see—the result of the Republican tax breaks & the Democratic-led investment in green energy—seemed fine when the Fed had interest rates pinned at zero and was buying tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Treasuries every week. Free money can mask a lot of problems. At today’s 5% rate, though, the math gets tricky.

    Auto loan delinquencies have risen past pre-COVID levels.

    Online car dealer Shift is declaring bankruptcy.

    Insane. The current Nasdaq-to-Treasuries ratio stands 70% higher than its level during the tech bubble’s peak. This chart puts into perspective how, despite ongoing issues with Treasuries, the more relevant question now is whether overall equities can remain as overvalued as they are in today’s interest rate environment.

    The 6% commission real estate agents charge is a gigantic scam. One way they maintain it is they’re the 2nd biggest spender on lobbying over the past 25 years. Hospitals, doctors, and pharma are the other big lobbyists–and shockingly costs in those industries have gone up.

    I LOVE (agree) with this 2015 Philadelphia Fed paper I just found. When it says, “investors,” think of the Airbnb investor trends this time around. “even a relatively small group of real estate investors can have a large effect on house prices”

    I’ve seen this movie before, its a classic.

    No one ever claimed home sellers were actually smart

    Personal savings rates in the US are down to 3.9% which is HALF of the long-run average. This is also just above the 2008 low of 1.4% which marks the lowest level on record. Just a few months ago, the personal savings rate dropped to 2.7% and it is falling yet again. Also, the last time inflation was this high in the 1980s, savings rates were 4x as high. This is another testament to how unaffordable things have become. As prices continue to rise and wage growth slows, personal savings rates are heading lower. What happens when Americans run out of savings?

    Can you smell the desperation?

    Three. Zat’s how many generations vill have to vork to pay off ze mortgage.

    After a decade of building 8,000 apartments in Oakland, market rate 1-bedroom units are now affordable to low income people, as defined by HUD. Today the SF Chronicle reported:
    – Oakland has largest rent decline (-7.2%) among top 100 US cities.
    – Median one-bedroom rent in Oakland stands at $1,430.
    – Vacancy rate in Oakland rises to 9.4% in September 2023.
    According to Oakland’s Housing and Community Development Department, low-income is an annual wage of $58,912, which according to most landlords is enough to accord rent of $1,472 a month.

    ” Ithink we are going to start to see it come out in the credit market. We’re going to see an acceleration of defaults, an acceleration of bankruptcies. There are going to be – like WeWork just skipping a default payment this week…”

    When a Canadian boomer tells you Canada is a great place to live in & raise a family – show them this chart. They lived in & oversaw a period of 50 years of the largest asset manipulation schemes, currency debasement, & corruption in human history. Now they’re importing your cheap migrant replacement to work your job for 50% of the cost so they can keep their 80:1 exec pays coming in.

    ‘The Airbnb apocalypse is here. The company helped to stoke the housing crisis in places such as Bed-Stuy. It benefited from the housing crisis. And now, in New York at least, it is getting crushed by it too.’

    The total number of home sales in Maricopa County was down 18% in September vs September 1 year ago and down 48% from September 2 years ago, looking at all home sales recorded with Maricopa County – new and resale, MLS and non-MLS – according to the Cromford Report.

    1. “I’ve seen this movie before, its a classic.”

      It is a freakishly similar chart to the last bust. Even the dead-cat bounce matches up. But, of course, it’s different this time.

    2. “Three. Zat’s how many generations vill have to vork to pay off ze mortgage.”

      And us old timers will be saying we remember when inheriting a house was a good thing. Thanks for the @$$ pounding mom and dad.

    3. ‘The Airbnb apocalypse is here. The company helped to stoke the housing crisis in places such as Bed-Stuy.’

      My husband spent the first few years of his life in what sounds to me like it was the worst neighborhood ever. Since he was born and raised in NYC he told me that by comparison Bed-Stuy was much worse that the dump where he was born.

      So who the fudge would want an AirBnB there?!

  8. Ominous sign interest rates will stay high for years – as expert predicts when the next cut will be
    By Stephen Johnson, Economics Reporter For Daily Mail Australia
    21:01 08 Oct 2023, updated 23:44 08 Oct 2023
    – Australian government bond yields rising
    – This suggests interest rate are staying high

    Australian home borrowers are expected to face years of higher interest rates as government debt costs surge in the coming decade.

    The ominous sign about Australia’s inflation fight is contained in the debt market where investors lend money to the government for a set return.

    When governments borrow money, they issue bonds also known as Australian Government Securities.

    Investors who buy government bonds are offered fixed, annual interest payments until the set maturity date when they get their money back, which could be two, three, five or 10 years away.

    These annual interest payments are known as bond yields.

    To attract new, longer-term investors, the federal government now has to offer bond yields that are higher than the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate.

    That would make government debt a more attractive option for an investor than leaving money in a term deposit bank account earning interest.

    JPMorgan Australia chief economist Ben Jarman is expecting another Reserve Bank rate hike in November, that would take the cash rate to a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent, with inflation still too high at 5.2 per cent.

    Australian home borrowers are expected to face years of higher interest rates as government debt costs surge in the coming decade (pictured is a stock image)

    1. Did central bankers worldwide subscribe to the failed notion that they could print money without limit and never have to pay the piper?

  9. Ok, so now its coming out by a 2018 Documentary called “The Bleeding Edge”, how corrupt the 400 billion dollar medical device industry is.
    Better watch this documentary before you.consider replacement parts for knee and hip replacements, mesh, even birth control devices , and other parts. Also danger involved with MRI machine.
    Perverse incentives in that realm of medicine, without much regulation by FDA.
    Kickback to doctors, inferior parts that break apart, leakage, etc.
    Did we think it was only Big Pharmacy that was corrupt with perverse incentives?

    1. So every form of modern birth control (pills, IUD, injections) is abortifacient. How people don’t get this is beyond me, but the entire industry is evil to the core.

      1. My understanding is that the pill first tries to prevent ovulation. But if that fails it can prevent the embryo from attaching to the uterus, which is the abortifacient nature.

  10. Germany’s center-right opposition won two state elections on Sunday at the halfway mark of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular national government, projections showed, and a far-right party that has been riding high in national polls celebrated gains.

    The votes followed a campaign marked by discontent with persistent squabbling in the national government and by pressure to reduce the number of migrants arriving in Germany. The national interior minister, who leads the federal response on migration, suffered a heavy defeat in a difficult bid to become governor of her home state.

    “We do a lot of good things with each other and talk them down at times,” said Omid Nouripour, the Greens’ national co-leader. And he said that “above all, AfD’s results are alarming and we must do everything to win back confidence.”

    AfD’s chief whip in the German parliament, Bernd Baumann, said that “the wind is changing in Germany — it is switching from left to right.” He charged that the mainstream conservative opposition, which has assailed the government on migration, is “twisting in the wind, and AfD is the wind.”

      1. The globalist Quisling “center-left” and “center-right” parties serve only their globalist oligarch donors. It’s about time Germans started taking their country back.

  11. Bloomberg
    Worst US Bond Selloff Since 1787 Marks End of Free-Money Era
    Carnage from the bond market—where the rout is worse than anything you’ll find in the history books—is spreading, and the implications are nasty.
    By Ye Xie
    October 8, 2023 at 12:00 PM PDT

    Strategists at Bank of America Corp. recently got their hands on US bond market data going all the way back to the founding of the nation. And it shows, they say, that never before has there been an extended period of losses like the past three years.

    It’s hard to know, of course, just how accurate the figures were from those early post-colonial years. (How often could bonds have traded during the War of 1812?) Still, there’s something jarring about a worst-in-236-years statistic. It’s a poignant reminder of the magnitude of the pain rippling through the financial world in the aftermath of an inflation shock and interest-rate surge that few saw coming. The pain was severe enough to take down Silicon Valley Bank and three other regional banks this year and pushed others into crisis until policymakers in Washington rushed to prop them up.

      1. I’m totally missing the connection you are insinuating. All of the recently elected presidents enjoyed the benefits of Quantitative Easing, and the current one is enjoying its aftermath. None of them were fiscal conservatives by any stretch.

        1. But it has gone into complete overdrive since you know who was installed. $2 – 3 trillion dollar deficits are now the new normal. They aren’t even using the coof as an excuse anymore.

          I will agree it was bad enough before

          1. It was all fine until the printing press broke when the Fed ran it on high blast during the coof while many governments shut down economic production. It clearly was busted when home prices shot up by 40% almost everywhere all at once.

          2. For the past 15 years, the economy has been living on debt made possibly by low interest rates. Interest rates are controlled by the Fed. The current Fed Chair was first appointed by Trump and re-nommed by Biden. Jay let the economy run too hot without raising rates, and had to raise interest rates too quickly.

          3. “But it has gone into complete overdrive since you know who was installed. $2 – 3 trillion dollar deficits are now the new normal.”


            and according to “you know who” dialing back from $2 – 3 trillion dollar deficits would be the end of society as we know it not what it is, a way to continue the mega bloating of big government, funding for leftist programs and NGOs along with $ to fund the Ray Epps schemes, pay back political donors, have plenty of money for Ukraine and other countries that provide bribe money to Biden Inc.

  12. Does it seem like the four decades long bull market in US Treasury bonds has ended with their deepest ever CR8R?

    Contagion to other asset classes is soon to follow.

    1. We’re in the Biggest Treasury Bond Bear Market Ever, Bank of America Says
      Government bonds have shed a quarter of their value since 2020, the steepest decline in history
      By Mack Wilowski
      Published October 06, 2023
      U.S. Treasury Building
      SAUL LOEB / Contributor / Getty Images

      Key Takeaways

      – The market for U.S. Treasurys has shed almost a quarter of its value since Treasury yields bottomed out in the summer of 2020.

      – It’s the biggest Treasury bond bear market in history, surpassing two similar periods in the 19th century, according to a Bank of America research note.

      – Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exposed to U.S. Treasurys, like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, have been pummeled in recent years.

      We may be in the biggest bear market for U.S. Treasury bonds of all time, analysts at Bank of America wrote in a research note Friday.

      The market for U.S. Treasurys has shed almost a quarter (24.7%) of its value since Treasury yields bottomed out in the summer of 2020. That’s the biggest percentage decline in U.S. bond market history, and is already six percentage points greater than the next-biggest rout.

      You’d have to go back all the way to the 19th century to see comparable declines. One of those bear markets occurred in 1860, just before the outbreak of the Civil War, when prices fell 18.7% from peak to trough. Another occurred in the late 1830s, when prices fell 16% during the tail end of the Jackson presidency and the Panic of 1837.

      The biggest bond market rout in U.S. history comes after one of its longest bull runs ever. In the four decades leading up to 2020, an extended period of falling interest rates after the stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s led to steady returns for government bonds. Valuations peaked in 2020 amid record low interest rates.

      Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasurys have soared since early last year, when the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in an effort to combat the highest inflation in more than four decades.

      Rising borrowing costs have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a 16-year high of 4.8%. That’s up from a record low of 0.5% in the summer of 2020, when the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero to stimulate an economy battered by pandemic lockdowns.

      Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. When interest rates rise, like they have since early last year, existing bonds that offer a lower fixed yield become less attractive to investors. To compensate for the lower yield, prices on these bonds are lowered to entice investors to purchase them.

      Treasury ETFs Have Been Pummeled

      Some of the biggest bond market ETFs that track the price of Treasury bonds have been pummeled amid surging yields, with those exposed to longer-duration Treasurys recording the steepest losses.

      The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, which invests exclusively in the longest-dated Treasurys, has shed roughly half its value since August 2020, as losses on the 30-Year Treasury bond hit 50%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF, which invests in medium-duration Treasury notes, has lost more than a quarter.

    2. Stocks are still in a bull market but it’s one of the weakest on record
      Matthew Fox
      Oct 9, 2023, 10:21 AM PDT
      Bull and bear market
      Kameleon007/Getty Images

      – The rally in stocks since October 2022 is one of the weakest bull markets on record, according to Ned Davis Research.

      – Elevated valuations and monetary tightening measures from the Federal Reserve have limited upside potential.

      – These technical signals highlight just how weake the current rally in stocks really is, according to NDR.

    3. Financial Times
      Global Economy
      Janet Yellen sees no market ‘dysfunction’ from US bond rout
      Treasury secretary says businesses and households are coping well with higher borrowing costs
      A close-up side view of Janet Yellen speaking, a second person is out of focus in the background
      Janet Yellen struck an optimistic tone about the capacity of businesses and households to weather higher interest rates
      Colby Smith in Marrakech 3 hours ago

      The surge in borrowing costs has not created dysfunction in US financial markets, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said as she struck an optimistic tone about the capacity of banks, businesses and households to weather higher interest rates.

      Speaking at the start of this week’s IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Marrakech, Yellen dismissed concerns about the rout in the $25tn market for US government bonds, which has pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to the highest level since 2007 and dragged up borrowing costs in other countries.

      “I haven’t seen any evidence of dysfunction in connection with the increase in interest rates,” she told the Financial Times. “When rates are more volatile, sometimes you see some impact on market function, but that is pretty standard.”

    1. The share of consumers who think now is a good time to buy a home is back at an all-time low
      Jennifer Sor
      Oct 9, 2023, 10:17 AM PDT
      US Housing market
      Portland Press Herald/Getty Images

      – Sentiment in the US housing market fell last month, according to Fannie Mae data.

      – That’s largely due to high mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 7.49% the last week.

      – Buyers are also expecting home prices to rise over the next year, Fannie Mae’s chief economist said.

      1. “Buyers are also expecting home prices to rise over the next year, Fannie Mae’s chief economist said.”

        Like my HS tennis coach was fond of saying, ‘You can wish in one hand and sh!t in the other, and see which one fills up the fastest.’

  13. ‘According to the FD, Heimstaden has to sell the properties because it needs cash to refinance debts. This is something Heimstaden denied in a press statement last week. ‘These actions are solely aimed at preserving our desired rating and are unrelated to any capital requirement for upcoming maturities, which currently does not exist,’ the statement said. Last week, the company also sold its Icelandic portfolio’

    I’ve heard flapping yer arms helps with the effectiveness thing.

    ‘In 2019 Heimstaden bought over 9,500 Dutch homes from British investment group Round Hill for €1.4bn, the biggest deal ever agreed in the Netherlands in terms of the number of properties’

    Biggest evah, a winnah!

  14. OSHA vaccine mandates were stuck down by High Court.

    According to Edward Dowd, the Stock analyst, all those Companies that mandated under OSHA, are afraid of getting sued for their illegal mandates under OSHA.
    Basically they asserted a OSHA right to Mandate, that they just made up. Assertion of a law, that didn’t exist. They probably figured they had 50/ 50 chance of high Court affirming it, under the fever of the Covid fear mongering .
    But this is the tactic of the Global Cult , to break law or assert law they make up. They knew that such a OSHA mandate had never been asserted before, and in bad faith they asserted it anyway.
    Sad that the Court affirmed vaccine mandates for health care workers.
    But, in final analysis the fake expierment vaccines violated Nuremberg Codes.

    1. I had a very interesting lunch this afternoon with my father, step-mother, homeless hard-left uncle, second cousin who grew up in Cuba until 1959 and visited in 2019, and gentleman who hosted my father and other uncle last year in Ghana. My second cousin had quite the harrowing story about Batista’s soldiers confronting her father over harboring Castro’s rebels. She said her father warned her growing up never to comply with mandates.

      1. It was neighboring farmers who were harboring Castro’s rebels in an abandoned house on his compound.

  15. ‘I have yet to decide whether it is a good time to sell my two-bedroom flat before buying a bigger home…My observations are that an increasing number of homeowners are looking to sell their flats and some of them will sooner or later offer price cuts if they are hungry for cash’

    Yer bass ackwards on this Jack. Hungry fer cash, hold yer ground! It’s as natural as rain.

    1. Finally a song I recognize! I liked a couple of their songs but decided if I wanted to hear The Beatles I’d just listen to The Beatles.

  16. Cancer update: Lymph nodes were negative!!!!!! The invasive part of the melanoma on my right forearm was successfully excised but the superficial layer requires another procedure next month. And, the biopsy on my left upperarm was benign.

    1. ‘matress’

      The Financial Times
      2 hours ago
      US Treasury yields fall as investors seek safety amid Israel turmoil
      Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong

      US Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors piled into the traditional haven following a federal holiday and turmoil in Israel.

      The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell 0.13 percentage points to 4.65 per cent in Tokyo on Tuesday morning as trading of US government bonds resumed in Asia. Bond yields fall as prices rise.

      Stock markets were open on Monday in the US but bond trading was closed for Columbus Day.

      The fall in yields also marked a partial reversal following a sharp sell-off in longer-maturity bonds last week, which had raised concerns over the economic impact of the US Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” approach to interest rates.

  17. Q. How do you spark a stock market rally when gloom pervades the news?

    A. Weaken the dollar by backpeddling on your commitment to future rate hikes.

    1. Reuters
      Dollar slips as dovish Fed speak dials down rate expectations
      By Tom Westbrook
      October 9, 20236:15 PM PDTUpdated 4 hours ago
      Woman holds U.S. dollar banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

      SINGAPORE, Oct 10 (Reuters) – The dollar softened on Tuesday along with U.S. interest rate expectations and a fall in Treasury yields as investors detected a slight dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials’ tone.

      The yen held small gains as violence in the Middle East supported buying of safe-haven assets, and last traded firmly at 148.34 per dollar. The Swiss franc has also gained and was edging higher at 0.9045 to the dollar.

      The euro was up 0.1% in early Asia trade to $1.0580. The Israeli shekel steadied at 3.95 to the dollar, just off an almost eight-year low, after the central bank promised $30 billion in foreign exchange selling.

      Investors are bracing for a drawn-out conflict after a weekend attack from Palestinian militants – and Israel’s retaliation – has claimed more than 1,500 lives.

      However comments from two Fed officials turned around the mood and U.S. rate forecasts overnight after noting the recent selloff in bonds might negate the need for further hikes.

      “If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the Fed funds rate,” said Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan — a notable shift from previously hawkish rhetoric.

      Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank would need to “proceed carefully” given the recent rise in yields. Futures-implied pricing for the chance of another Fed hike this year fell from above 40% last week to about 26% on Monday.

      “A handful of other officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, are scheduled to speak today. Markets will closely watch their comments for further clues on the path of (Fed) policy,” said CBA strategist Carol Kong in a note.

      Ten-year Treasury yields , which have been zooming, dived more than 13 basis points to 4.63% at the open in Tokyo on Tuesday on both rates relief and a safe-haven bet after the cash market had shut for Columbus Day on Monday.

      Sterling was a fraction firmer against the dollar at $1.2244. Against the Australian and New Zealand dollars the greenback was also a fraction weaker, with the Aussie up 0.2% to $0.6420 and the kiwi up 0.2% to $0.6031.

      China’s return from a week’s break has traders’ eyes back focused on the daily fix of the yuan’s trading band, which has for weeks on end been far firmer than market expectations.

      Ahead of the onshore open, the yuan held overnight gains to trade just above its 50-day moving average in the offshore market at 7.2876 per dollar.

  18. The Wall Street Journal
    China’s Country Garden Succumbs to Debt Crisis After Sales Drop
    Property giant fails to repay a loan and warns that it is unlikely to pay off all its international debt obligations
    By Rebecca Feng
    Updated Oct. 9, 2023 11:41 pm ET
    Country Garden said its sales have come under ‘remarkable pressure,’ which worsened its problems. PHOTO: STR/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

    HONG KONG—Chinese property giant Country Garden (2007 -3.57% decrease; red down pointing triangle) failed to make an international debt payment after its apartment sales dropped in September, succumbing to a liquidity crisis that worsened over the past few months.

  19. Vanguard Finds Only Top Earners Are Financially on Track for Retirement
    Published October 08, 2023
    Couple looking at bills while sitting before a laptop
    MoMo Productions / Getty Images


    – Only top earners may be financially on track for retirement, according to Vanguard, which found investing played a key role in their ability to grow wealth.

    – Amid worries about a potential recession, more than half of Americans surveyed by Allianz say they are holding more money in cash rather than investing.

    – Vanguard suggested greater participation in capital markets could help put workers in a better position to meet their retirement needs.

  20. Bloomberg
    Treasuries Have Best Day Since March on Signs Fed May Be Done
    Yield on 10-year note slides as much as 18 basis points
    Market pricing suggests Fed won’t hike again this year: Nomura
    10-Year Yield Has Peaked, Stifel’s Bannister Says
    WATCH: “The market did a lot of the work for the Fed,” Stifel Chief Equity Strategist Barry Bannister says during an interview on Bloomberg.Source: Bloomberg
    By Ruth Carson and Garfield Reynolds
    October 9, 2023 at 5:05 PM PDT
    Updated on October 10, 2023 at 2:17 AM PDT
    Bond investors are starting to bet the worst-ever rout in US Treasuries may soon be over.

    US 10-year yields slid the most since March after dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials fueled speculation interest-rate hikes are about done, while jitters over the Israel-Hamas war added haven demand. The move was more pronounced than normal as trading of cash Treasuries had been shut worldwide Monday for a US holiday.

    1. Financial Times
      US Treasury bonds
      US Treasuries rally as investors scale back rate expectations
      Traders flock to US government debt after Hamas attack on Israel
      Mary McDougall an hour ago

      US Treasuries rallied on Tuesday as investors rushed to haven assets following Hamas’s attacks in Israel and comments from Federal Reserve officials who hinted that the US may have reached the end of its rate-rising campaign.

      The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries dropped 0.14 percentage points to 4.66 per cent, on course for the biggest one-day fall since March, on its reopening after a US public holiday.

      “There has been a flight to safety as conflict unfolds in the Middle East,” said Andres Sanchez Balcazar, head of global bonds at Pictet. “It’s quite natural that an exogenous shock like this will generate a rally in US Treasuries.”

      The rebound comes after relentless pressure on global sovereign debt prices in recent weeks as investors adjust their expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Benchmark US debt yields hit a 16-year high of 4.88 per cent on Friday following stronger-than-expected jobs data. Bond yields fall when debt prices rise.

      It also followed moves on European debt markets on Monday, when German Bund yields — a benchmark for the eurozone — fell 0.11 percentage points to 2.77 per cent. Yields on the Bund were steady on Tuesday.

      US government debt also rose after comments by Fed officials on Monday, who signalled that the US may have finished raising interest rates.

      Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed president and a notable hawk, said the sharp rise in long-term yields in October could mean less need for further rate increases.

      “It seems increasingly likely that the hike from the Fed in July will prove to be the last, although if US growth fails to weaken in the coming months then another hike is definitely not off the table,” said Mike Riddell, a bond fund manager at Allianz Global Investors.

      Markets have scaled back bets on a Fed interest rate rise to 14 per cent when it sets policy on November 1, down from a 30 per cent probability after Friday’s payroll data.

    2. MarketWatch
      In One Chart
      U.S. Treasurys have likely reached a bottom. But stocks have not, technical analyst says.
      Last Updated: Oct. 9, 2023 at 12:24 p.m. ET
      First Published: Oct. 9, 2023 at 11:56 a.m. ET
      By Frances Yue

      U.S. Treasurys have likely already reached a bottom, while stocks have more room to fall, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG.

      Bonds have shown signs of a washout with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT, which tracks the performance of long-term Treasurys, saw the heaviest volume last week in its history, Krinsky wrote in a Sunday note. “Back-to-back record volume weeks for TLT culminating with one of the highest volume days on record on Friday. If this isn’t capitulation, we don’t know what is,” Krinsky wrote.

      Long-term Treasury yields have recently climbed to over-a-decade highs, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising over 5% on Friday to its highest level since 2007, according to Dow Jones market data. The U.S. Treasury market is closed on Monday for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day.

      “We continue to believe we are entering a period where the bond/stock correlation will flip and we will see rates fall with stocks,” noted Krinsky.

      For stocks, Krinsky said they continue to expect the S&P 500 to fall below its psychological level at 4,200, while it won’t be surprising for it to test its 20-day moving average at 4,357 early this week.

      For stocks to reach a capitulation phase, there needs to be over 25% of the S&P 500 stocks to see a 52-week low, according to Krinsky.

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