It Just Kind Of Seems Now, With The Stroke Of A Pen, Our Businesses Go Down The Tubes
A report from Alabama.com. “Huntsville Realtor Tim Knox said real estate agents are feeling a little bit nervous these days in the Huntsville area. ‘We kind of got a little spoiled last year,’ said Knox, who is with Leading Edge Real Estate Group. ‘When the feeding frenzy was going on here, even the worst house would sell within hours. We would get multiple offers, cash offers way over asking price. Agents got so used to houses flying off the market.’ That isn’t the case anymore. ‘Buyers became accustomed to 6% and 7% rates,’ said Realtor Matt Curtis. ‘Eight percent appears to be the breaking point for a segment of buyers, which has slowed home sales nationally and is creating pricing pressure. At 8% prices are starting to soften. It’s not reflected in September’s numbers, but it will start to show in the coming months. Especially with new construction inventory from large national builders seeing large incentives and price drops.'”
“The most affordable homes in the Huntsville area are still found in the Decatur market. The average home price in the Decatur market was $257,000, just $1,000 more than they were a year ago. It dropped significantly from August, when the average sales price was $295,000. The drops in the average home price in the Huntsville area seems to be a reversal of a trend that saw home prices rise over 70% in the last five years according to data compiled by Stacker.”
From CBS News. “As some markets like Manhattan have shown, home values have already started to fall in some areas. In Orlando, the market for Vivian Lehman, broker and owner of You Have Realty, home prices have dropped by around 9% since June, according to Redfin. And generally, pricing nationally is starting to fall more in line with what many real estate experts consider to be fair market values. ‘Higher interest rates may be to blame, but some of that drop can be attributed to sellers and their agents no longer pricing homes at over market value as they did in 2022,’ says Lehman. ‘2022 was an anomaly, especially in Florida. Low supply and low interest rates fueled that wave.'”
“‘By the end of 2024, I believe prices will drop but not by a landslide,’ says Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens.. Her conservative estimate is a 2% decrease, but much depends on what happens with factors like inflation and interest rates. ‘Of course, all real estate is local so if you are looking in a market where homes have been severely overvalued, the price drops might be more severe. I am based in NYC, and we are already seeing prices start to come down, especially where all cash offers are concerned,’ Freedman said.”
The Arizona Republic. “Metro Phoenix’s million-dollar home sales didn’t slow during the summer, despite the housing market’s overall slowing. What is slowing is the time it’s taking luxury houses in metro Phoenix houses to sell. At the end of this year’s third quarter, homes in nearly all of the Valley’s most expensive neighborhoods were selling slower than a year ago. Bobby Lieb, associate broker with Launch Powered By Compass, advises sellers to price luxury homes with the market and not based on an inflated online valuation. ‘The longer a home sits on market, the more impact that will have on the selling price,’ he said. Home prices are flat or down in several of metro Phoenix’s priciest neighborhoods, including parts of north Scottsdale.”
Palo Alto Online in California. “While the overall Midpeninsula housing market is on the path to recovery, Palo Alto appears to be lagging behind its neighboring cities. Year to date, as of Sept. 16, the median price of a single-family home in Palo Alto remained down by 8% compared to a year ago. Los Altos follows closely, with a 5% decrease. In the first quarter of this year, the median price of a single-family home in Palo Alto plunged by 18% compared to the same time last year. In the second quarter, the decline was only 9% compared to the same period last year. By the third quarter (as of Sept. 16), the median price was $3.35 million, almost on par with $3.39 million from the same period last year.”
“Several factors have contributed to the market’s path to recovery. In the third quarter of 2022, the market sharply plunged and hit bottom, leaving little room for further decline. The median price of a single family home sold in Palo Alto peaked in March 2022 at $4.3 million and had plummeted by 20% four months later in July. The descent continued throughout the latter part of 2022. Whether the residential real estate downturn is definitely in the rearview mirror remains to be seen.”
The Real Deal on California. “The value of luxury apartment complex NEMA has shrunk by nearly 50 percent, according to Trepp, citing remittance data from September. The recently appraised value of $279 million, or about $370,000 per unit, is well below the loan balance of $384 million and about half of its 2018 value of nearly $544 million. The loan was sent to special servicing and owner Crescent Heights faced ‘imminent default’ in August, Trepp said. The two-building complex was built in 2013 at the corner of 10th Street and Market, across the street from the headquarters for X which has shed two-thirds of its office space. ‘Bond holders are likely looking at losses down the road,’ Trepp’s Manus Clancy said via email.”
“NEMA has not brought in enough money to meet its debt obligations since 2020, according to special servicer notes. The 50 percent decline is much more than the assumed 15 to 25 percent drop in multifamily values nationwide, Clancy said. It could speak to ‘things beyond interest rates like quality of life, occupancy and rent levels’ impacting San Francisco apartments in particular.”
Global News in Canada. “Brian Pedersen of Kelowna owns several short-term rental properties within city limits. ‘I bought these short-term rental units as a business plan and as a retirement plan,’ Pedersen told Global News. Those plans are now in limbo following sweeping changes announced Monday by the provincial government, which will no longer allow short-term rentals other than in the operator’s principal residence. ‘I was shocked by it,’ Pedersen said. The Kelowna man, who is also a realtor, said all of the units he owns are in buildings that allow short-term rentals. ‘We’ve been operating in these buildings for 15 to 20 years. We’ve invested in these buildings for 15 or 20 years we’ve operated there. There’s never been an issue, and it just kind of seems now, with the stroke of a pen, our businesses go down the tubes,’ Pedersen said.”
Blog TO in Canada. “An Ontario builder accused of ruining the lives of many would-be homeowners while ironically touting the motto ‘a better building experience’ now appears to be having trouble turning a profit on some of its projects, and people are quite the opposite of sympathetic. Gemini Homebuilders made headlines last year when it abruptly cancelled the contracts it had with 32 buyers for houses in a new subdivision in Elora. According to the company, the contracts were automatically voided when the developer and township failed to approve and install services like sewage, gas and hydro by deadlines that had been listed as conditions of the agreements.”
“This is why some online are now revelling in the fact that homes from Swan Creek Estates, another Gemini development just outside Elora, are selling for way under the builder’s asking price. ‘KARMA,’ one housing advocate wrote along with screengrabs of a listing on X (formerly Twitter) this week. ‘Greedy Guelph builder who terminated 32 new build contracts in Elora two years ago had to take a 30 per cent haircut on this place in order to sell it!’ The images show a Swan Creek house originally listed for just shy of $3 million, and recently sold for $2.1 million after multiple price decreases. Two smaller homes in the same community are currently also listed for $2.5 million and $2.4 million.”
From Barron‘s. “Think New York is expensive? Try…Frankfurt or Munich? UBS recently published the 2023 edition of its Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Two usual Asian suspects, Tokyo and Hong Kong, came near the top of the charts. The real surprise was how frothy Europe is looking. However you slice it, the outlook for European, particularly German, real estate is rotten. The United Kingdom has the second-highest proportion of adjustable-rate mortgages in Europe—more than 40%, according to the World Economic Forum. (The leader is Spain, where prices never fully recovered from earlier crashes.) ‘People’s mortgage payments could double when they reset,’ says David Aikman, a finance professor at King’s Business School in London. ‘It’s hard to see how it all adds up.'”
“German housing prices are already off 14% from a peak in March 2022, Allianz calculates. The rest of Europe is following, with a 5% to 10% drop projected by the end of 2024. That still won’t be enough to bring buyers out at current interest rates, Allianz figures. Prices on average will have to fall more like 15% to match the purchasing power potential buyers have lost to tighter money and inflation. Higher interest rates are naturally choking the supply of new housing, too. Construction permits in Germany fell by a quarter in the first half of 2023 compared with the prior year.”
Daily Mail Australia. “Harris Constructions Pty Ltd, which traded under the name GJ Gardner Homes Springfield/Ripley in Greater Brisbane, has officially closed up shop leaving suppliers and tradies in the lurch. The Springfield/Ripley branch is part of the GJ Gardner Homes company which has offices scattered across Australia in every state except the Northern Territory. The business owes $1.8million to 46 creditors, including the ATO and tradies, while as many as 30 homeowners are expected to have been impacted by the closure. One worker who claims he is owed $25,000 in unpaid wages said he only learnt the business had collapsed when he was unable to log into his work emails.”
“The branch’s director Iain Harris declared bankruptcy on August 9, news.com.au reported. Mr Harris said he had been hopeful that his staff would’ve been retained by GJ Gardner Homes and stressed he did his best to keep the business afloat. ‘In May, they (GJ Gardner Homes) said we’re not going to support the business. I was cut out of everything at that point, they said they would set up a separate entity and take over the customers’ builds, and pay all the subcontractors,’ he told the publication. ‘I’m absolutely devastated with the final outcome.’ One man, Jordan Purvis, who runs his own air-conditioning business said he’s now $68,000 in debt because he believed the franchise had backing from the head office.”
“But the company’s head office has rejected claims they would be recovering the losses of the business. ‘At no time did G.J. Gardner Homes head office promise to take on the debts or responsibilities of Mr Harris and his building company,’ a spokesperson told Daily Mail Australia. ‘We are aware some trades and suppliers were told by Mr Harris that head office would take on his debts, but this was never the case and is completely false – which we informed them of when they reached out to us with these claims.’ The spokesperson added the head office shut down Mr Harris’ access to company systems before terminating his franchise agreement. ‘This is a challenging and upsetting time for all people involved. Mr Harris is now the subject of personal bankruptcy proceedings. G.J. Gardner Homes is also an unpaid creditor with unpaid franchise fees and outstanding loans.'”
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‘This is a challenging and upsetting time for all people involved. Mr Harris is now the subject of personal bankruptcy proceedings. G.J. Gardner Homes is also an unpaid creditor with unpaid franchise fees and outstanding loans’
Not only are they not going to pay yer bills Lian, you owe them money.
geez, ANOTHER aussie construction co. went under?
I didn’t think there were that many in the entire county!
sure, its a large landmass but sparsely populated for the size.
just incredible.
It’s over 1200 now.
‘The business owes $1.8million to 46 creditors, including the ATO and tradies, while as many as 30 homeowners are expected to have been impacted by the closure. One worker who claims he is owed $25,000 in unpaid wages said he only learnt the business had collapsed when he was unable to log into his work emails. The branch’s director Iain Harris declared bankruptcy on August 9, news.com.au reported. Mr Harris said he had been hopeful that his staff would’ve been retained’
What I learned working for construction companies as an accountant is when these things happen, everybody takes a sh$t. It’s not so much oh Bob failed. Everybody related is fooked and they drop like flies. One guy owes another who owes another and they all borrowed too much.
You will own nothing.
They will own you
The average home price in the Decatur market was $257,000, just $1,000 more than they were a year ago.
In realty the value loss is even more substantial when you factor in the Fed’s debasement of the currency over the past year.
In Orlando, the market for Vivian Lehman, broker and owner of You Have Realty, home prices have dropped by around 9% since June, according to Redfin.
Is that a lot?
Does the prospect of catching an unaffordably-priced falling knife in the housing market frighten you?
Happy Halloween!
Bloomberg
EconomicsReal Estate
China’s Home Prices Drop at Faster Pace in Blow to Sentiment
Housing slump persists despite recent policy stimulus measures
Property giant Country Garden has signaled likely default
By Bloomberg News
October 18, 2023 at 6:39 PM PDT
Updated on October 18, 2023 at 7:42 PM PDT
China home prices fell at the fastest pace in almost a year in September, adding to doubts over whether Beijing’s steps to prop up the property market are enough to revive the sector.
New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, declined 0.3% last month from August, when they slipped 0.29%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Thursday. That was the steepest month-on-month decline since October 2022.
…
Financial Times
Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd
Chinese developer Country Garden misses payment on dollar bond, say creditors
Heavily indebted company becomes latest casualty of China’s property crisis
Buildings by developer Country Garden in Zhenjiang, eastern China
Country Garden, once China’s biggest developer by sales, was due to make a $15.4mn coupon repayment this week
Thomas Hale in Shanghai and Cheng Leng and Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong yesterday
Country Garden has missed its final deadline for the coupon payment on a dollar bond, according to three creditors, making what was once China’s biggest developer by sales the latest casualty of the country’s property sector crisis.
Bondholders told the Financial Times that they had not received an interest payment due at midnight US Eastern time on Tuesday for a $500mn Country Garden bond maturing in September 2025. The developer was due to make a $15.4mn coupon repayment this week.
Country Garden declined to comment on the specific coupon payment. A spokesperson reiterated on Wednesday that it “will not be able to meet all of its overseas debt repayment obligations”.
…
Ricky Nelson – Garden Party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3yHL9RXlRM
seems 99.9999% of anything promised by china is a lie.
we see it over. and over. and . . .
WHEN will people wake up & realize that some cultures take immense pride in deceitful lies?!
like gypsies, that will never do an honest days work: they think they’re “too clever” to live by rules.
Who do they think is going to buy all this housing in China? They have very few young people, and the ones they have are 20% unemployed.
So far it has been flippers, I believe. My understanding is that when you buy a new airbox over there it isn’t quite finished: no flooring, no kitchen cabinets or appliances,, etc., with idea that the buyer will take care of that before moving in, but flippers do not finish them.
My understanding is that when you buy a new airbox over there it isn’t quite finished: no flooring, no kitchen cabinets or appliances,, etc., with idea that the buyer will take care of that before moving in, but flippers do not finish them.
This exactly.
In the PRC, you purchase a floorplan that is an empty shell. The renovations such as flooring are done by the buyer. There is a social stigma around a ‘second-hand’ house, so the flippers will keep the property in its original condition with the idea the eventual bag holder will do the move-in renovations.
It is quite absurd.
That’s why it’s a ponzi scheme. Populations and birthrates are falling like a brick outside of the ME and Africa. Yet we’re told there will be a huge shortage of housing.
FWIW, millions are pouring across our border every year, and that’s on top of legal immigration,
“‘By the end of 2024, I believe prices will drop but not by a landslide,’ says Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens.. Her conservative estimate is a 2% decrease, but much depends on what happens with factors like inflation and interest rates.
You go to hell for lying, Bess. Bursting bubbles don’t drop by 2% – 50% isn’t unrealistic in many markets, given the unsustainable run-up in prices and the grim socioeconomic outlook as the Fed & Biden regime hurtle us down the road to Venezuela del Norte.
+40% in 2 years to be followed by only -2% next year?!?!?!
In the first quarter of this year, the median price of a single-family home in Palo Alto plunged by 18% compared to the same time last year.
Is that a lot?
The 50 percent decline is much more than the assumed 15 to 25 percent drop in multifamily values nationwide, Clancy said.
Gosh, you mean the cratering far exceeds the rosy estimates of REIC shill “analysts”? This shakes my hitherto unshakable faith in MSM “experts” to my very core.
There’s never been an issue, and it just kind of seems now, with the stroke of a pen, our businesses go down the tubes,’ Pedersen said.”
Houses are for shelter, not speculation. So just die already, speculator scum.
The business owes $1.8million to 46 creditors, including the ATO and tradies, while as many as 30 homeowners are expected to have been impacted by the closure.
Holding the Bag (Moe & Joe) w/ lyrics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dEklcoUj04
G.J. Gardner Homes is also an unpaid creditor with unpaid franchise fees and outstanding loans.’”
Gosh, as I sit here on the curb outside my house drinking a 40-oz out of a brown paper bag, as we all do from time to time, it occurs to me that an awful lot of naked swimmers are coming into view as the tide recedes.
Remain calm – all is well!
https://dailyhodl.com/2023/10/16/financial-fears-trigger-bank-run-in-china-as-officials-push-to-prevent-contagion-report/
Hong Kong (proxy for China) & Shanghai markets got monkey-hammered overnight. Are contagion fears starting to grow?
https://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/
Please, globalists, for the love of everything holy, send this poor dementia patient to the eldercare facility & stop forcing him to pretend he’s the engaged leader of the (cough) “Free World.”
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1714769132162527647
What’s he going to be like next year?
Four more years! Four more years!
“advises sellers to price luxury homes with the market and not based on an inflated online valuation.”
Allow me to translate – Zestimates have nothing to do with reality.
“Eight percent appears to be the breaking point for a segment of buyers”
If they don’t like 8%, wait ‘til they get a hard look at 9%! 10yr is about to break through 5 today.
What’s the typical spread between mortgage rates and the 10YR?
Good question. And one that I don’t have an off the cuff answer for. I’m sure many here are far more qualified to give a more detailed answer than I. Back when I was writing mortgages in late 90’s through the 2000’s rates were always tied to the 30yr. We mortgage brokers watched it like a hawk. Yield goes up, rates go up. If there was a wild swing in yields, secondary markets would overreact and you’d get 4 or more increases or decreases daily. For the last many years mortgage rates have been tied to 10yr. Same thing; yields up, rates go up. But you’ve made me want to do some research at some point today and become a bit more literate on something I’ve always only had a basic knowledge of.
“What’s the typical spread between mortgage rates and the 10YR?”
An article that has a chart …
https://blog.firstam.com/economics/mind-the-gap-between-mortgage-rates-and-the-10-year-treasury-yield
This is why I love his blog. Throw something out there and you get a response. Thank you Pain.
De nada.
A guy I follow was calling for the 10-year to hit 5.5-6% back in May. Based on the action since then, he now thinks 7.5-8%. We’ll see.
Who?
“By the end of 2024, I believe prices will drop but not by a landslide,’ says Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens.. Her conservative estimate is a 2% decrease,”
I need to look Bessie up because I’d like to make a friendly wager with her.
“Whether the residential real estate downturn is definitely in the rearview mirror remains to be seen.”
Oh the delusion.
US home sales fall to their lowest level in September since Great Recession. Hey realturds….got Ramen?
Clutch those pearls harder, globalist scum media.
New York Times — Donald Trump Is Going to Get Someone Killed (10/19/2023):
“The former president’s current language represents an imminent threat to his rhetorical targets and those around them.
Mr. Trump’s adversaries often look to the courts for relief, but there’s no remedy there for his tirades. The First Amendment protects all but the most explicit incitements to violence, so Mr. Trump has little reason to fear that prosecutors will bring charges against him for those remarks.
The most notorious moment of Mr. Trump’s presidency also demonstrated the limits of relying on the courts as a meaningful check on his own provocations. In his speech on the Ellipse on Jan. 6, 2021, Mr. Trump urged his supporters to “fight like hell,” and many did just that at the Capitol. But they paid a price, and he didn’t. In yet another example of Mr. Trump’s life without consequences, more than 1,000 people have been charged for their conduct on Jan. 6, and many if not most of them broke the law because they thought that’s what the president at the time wanted. Still, the special counsel Jack Smith refrained from charging Mr. Trump with inciting the violence, undoubtedly because of the Constitution’s broad protection for freedom of speech. Incitements like Mr. Trump’s, even if they are not crimes in themselves, can have dangerous consequences, as they did on Jan. 6.
Mr. Trump has never respected the norms of political behavior and there’s little reason to think gag orders will provide meaningful discipline either. As on Jan. 6, his supporters shed traditional rules as well. The day is fast approaching when someone picks up a gun or builds a bomb and then seeks to follow through on Mr. Trump’s words. If and when that happens, he will say that he did not specifically direct or cause the violence, and he will probably escape without criminal charges — but the blood will be on his hands.”
https://archive.ph/WQBRl
There was an insurrection YESTERDAY in the U.S. Capitol by pro Hamas demonstrators, no gulag for them.
See also: 2020 with $2+ billion in property damage and dozens of murders, including an insurrection with the actual seizure of public and private property and the declaration of an autonomous zone.
Trump won 2020. The election was stolen.
Oh for God Sakes, we all know the rigged financial systems are going to crash and burn.
The Globalists Cult with their big chess moves have a end game of a One World Order Dictorship, with enslavement of humanity, and depopulation no doubt.
They actually thought they could socially engineer populations of the world into you will own nothing, eat the bugs, take the shots, 24/7 surveillance under their technology grid.
They love killing people by wars, by poison, by manufactured division, by starvation, by terror, by rigged elections, by crime, by fraud, by insanity, by fake news, by fake science, by fake ideology, by we are going to save the World.
And as they move ever closer to their evil pre-planned destruction, and Great Reset nonsense, their narratives are becoming more ridiculous by the minute.
Unfortunately, humanity has to prevail over this outragous power grab by these psyopathic killers that have unleashed their evil upon the human race.
I predict they won’t win , but the carnage they will cause will be great, it’s already to much.
Media Confidence in U.S. Matches 2016 Record Low
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
32% have a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in media’s news reporting
New high of 39% have no confidence at all, compared with 27% in 2016
Democrats’ trust is down 12 points since last year; lowest since 2016
https://news.gallup.com/poll/512861/media-confidence-matches-2016-record-low.aspx
The 32% of Americans who say they trust the mass media “a great deal” or “a fair amount” to report the news in a full, fair and accurate way ties Gallup’s lowest historical reading, previously recorded in 2016. Although trust in media currently matches the historical low, it was statistically similar in 2021 (36%) and 2022 (34%).
Another 29% of U.S. adults have “not very much” trust, while a record-high 39% register “none at all.” This nearly four in 10 Americans who completely lack confidence in the media is the highest on record by one percentage point. It is 12 points higher than the 2016 reading, which came amid sharp criticism of the media from then-presidential candidate Donald Trump — making the current assessment of the media the grimmest in Gallup’s history. In 2016, U.S. adults were most likely to say they had “not very much” trust (41%).
(Clink on the link for the rest of the article AND to see some NIFTY CHARTS.)
I think the lack of trust numbers are a lot higher.
This non-stop onslaught of adnormal, mayhem, war drums, division and diversions, fear mongering and cover ups is becoming obvious .
Your not allowed to talk about anything except their ridiculous narratives.
division
It seems like everyday in my news feed there are stories attacking boomers, gen-x, millennials zoomes, etc. It’s becoming blatant that they want to divide the nation.
Colorado,
“division”
Isn’t any group they won’t attack, except themselves of course.
And the rainbow/alphabet crowd.
And the WWII set.
“New high of 39% have no confidence at all”
The media is the enemy of the American people.
32% trust the media?
This means that 1 in 3 people are brain dead.
US Leading Indicators Tumble For 18th Straight Month, “Shallow Recession” In 1H24
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-leading-indicators-tumble-18th-straight-month-shallow-recession-1h24
(Link on the article and check out the charts.)
Peter Schiff: The “Unsinkable” American Consumer Is Drowning in Debt
https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/peter-schiff-the-unsinkable-american-consumer-is-drowning-in-debt/
Every time retail sales come in higher than expected, the mainstream media breathlessly reports this as proof that the American consumer is strong and resilient. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained that these retail sales numbers aren’t a sign of a strong economy. They just reflect Americans paying more for less. And what’s worse, they’re burying themselves in debt to do it.
Retail sales were indeed stronger than expected in September, increasing by 0.7%. The expectation was for a 0.3% gain. Year-over-year, retail sales are up 3.8%.
The media hyped the report. CNN said it was a sign that consumers “aren’t tapping out just yet.” But Peter said the report was not actually good news.
First, it’s important to remember that retail sales data is not inflation-adjusted.
Everything costs more. Everything you buy is a lot more expensive. So, assuming that you don’t buy less, and of course, some people are buying less, but if you just buy the same stuff and everything costs a lot more, well of course, retail sales are going to go up.”
But this doesn’t indicate that the economy is thriving, and it doesn’t mean Americans are on a spending spree buying more stuff.
In many cases, they’re buying a lot less. They’re just paying more. And they’re buying fewer of the things that they want because they’re paying more to buy the things that they need.”
If you adjust the annual retail sales increase of 3.8% by the CPI, it drops to 0.1%. In other words, almost the entirety of the retail sales increase was due to rising prices. Nevertheless, the raw retail sales data creates the impression that Americans are happily spending money. Peter said you can’t necessarily draw that conclusion.
Americans aren’t happy that their grocery bill went up, and they’re probably not eating more or eating better. In fact, they’re probably trading down into lower-quality stuff. They’re just paying more.”
For instance, restaurant sales were up big. But if you’ve eaten out recently, you know the cost of everything on the menu has gone up dramatically. Even if you eat out less, you’re still spending more. Peter emphasized that none of this is a sign of a strong economy.
It is a sign of inflation. And that’s all this retail sales number is reflecting — inflation. It’s not about a strong economy, but about rising inflation.”
And we all know that actual prices are rising even faster than the CPI numbers indicate because the formula intentionally understates price inflation.
Obviously, if the government is underreporting how much prices are going up, then the retail sales are actually capturing the real increase in prices because it’s what the consumers are actually paying. It’s not what the government is pretending they’re actually paying, but what they are, in fact, paying. So, these retail sales numbers are probably a better reflection of inflation than the CPI.”
We shouldn’t celebrate this. It’s bad news. But the media keeps talking about the “unsinkable American consumer.”
He’s not unsinkable. He’s downing in debt! And the only reason he’s still floating is because he’s got two or three jobs. … This is not a report card on the success of the American economy, but on the failure. Because what it’s really measuring is the cost of living. People have to spend a lot more money to buy the same amount of stuff that they bought in the past.”
And as Peter noted, they’re buying a lot of this stuff on credit. Revolving credit – primarily credit card debt – surged by 13.9% in August. Americans now owe $1.28 trillion in revolving credit.
According to MarketWatch, “Americans appear to be relying more on debt to pay for their purchases. They are also using more ‘buy now and pay later’ plans.”
Peter pointed out that breaking down retail sales reveals the strain felt by consumers. Categories like food are up. But electronics sales are down.
[Americans] are spending more on shelter. They’re spending more on energy. They’re spending more on food. They’re spending more on insurance. They’re spending more on healthcare. They’ve got to make these expenditures. They have no choice. And the problem is when they finish buying all the things they need, they don’t have much left over for the things that they want.”
The consumer credit data reveals the same thing. While credit card spending surged in August, non-revolving credit tanked. That represents borrowing for big-ticket items. So, Americans are using credit cards to pay for the basics like food and gas, and they’re not making bigger purchases at all.
Peter goes on to explain why an economy built on consumer spending isn’t something to brag about.
In fact, they’re probably trading down into lower-quality stuff. They’re just paying more
I’ve seen a few recent articles lamenting the huge drop in quality of clothing, how it’s poorly made and doesn’t last anywhere nearly as long as it once did, yet costs more.
its not just clothing, ti’s everything. Everything is crap. it doesn’t last at all and it costs way more.
A economy build on productive effort is the only thing that can stand.
Rigged looting systems, fake casinos, parasites bloodsucking, social justice thievery, military complex war destruction, debt slavery, monopoly destruction of competition, all madness.
Madness it is, for sure.
The CPI is twice what the government ministry tells us. Adjust Peter’s comments accordingly. People are buying less and it will get worse as credit limits are approached.
I actually eat better when prices are higher, because I’ll just buy the ingredients and I’ll go out of my way to get them in quantity.
(NOTE: This post is not housing related.)
Threads Ban On Search Terms Related To COVID-19 Is ‘Temporary’: Instagram Chief
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/threads-ban-search-terms-related-covid-19-temporary-instagram-chief
Social media platform Threads’s ban on search terms related to COVID-19 is only temporary, Instagram chief Adam Mosseri has revealed.
In an Oct. 17 post on Threads, Mr. Mosseri said he didn’t have a firm date on when the ban would be lifted, but he didn’t think it would be a permanent situation.
“I don’t have an ETA to give you, unfortunately, but it is temporary, and we are working on it. We’re just getting pulled in a lot of directions at once right now,” Mr. Mosseri said.
“The broader team is working on deeper integrations into Instagram and Facebook, graph building, EU compliance, Fediverse support, trending, and generally making sure Threads continues to grow,” he added.
Following Threads’s July release, parent company Meta rolled out several updates, including a new search function similar to that on X, formerly known as Twitter.
However, users soon discovered the new search function blocked access to certain posts related to COVID-19, such as those concerning vaccines and long COVID.
Users searching for some COVID-related terms were reportedly met with a blank screen and redirected to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“Censorship doesn’t work. Misinfo still gets circulated by code names & other platforms, tech companies should invest in real solutions like moderation/education,” Lucky Tran, director of science communication at Columbia University, said at the time in an X post.
Another Tech CEO, Michael Robertson, was far more scathing, saying in an X post that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg “treats users like children.” He called for a boycott of Threads and for people to “embrace” rival platform X.
According to a later post by Ms. Tran, words such as sex, nude, gore, porn, coronavirus, vaccines, and vaccination are among other blocked words.
Meta confirmed in a previous statement to The Epoch Times that Threads is blocking users from searching for words that could bring up “sensitive” posts for now, but people would be able to search for keywords such as “COVID” in the future once the company is “confident in the quality of the results.”
In a follow-up post, Mr. Mosseri promised to look into the timeline for unblocking the banned COVID-19 terms on Threads.
“Weeks or months, let me look into it and circle back. The reality is that we have lots of important work to do,” he said.
“The team is moving fast, but we’re not yet where we want to be,” Mr. Mosseri added.
Meta owns and operates several social media platforms such as Instagram, Facebook, Threads, and WhatsApp.
Focus on Israel–Hamas War Misinformation
According to Mr. Mosseri, the primary concern for his team is managing content centered around the Israel–Hamas War.
“The biggest safety focus right now is managing content responsibly given the war in Israel in Gaza,” he said.
Terrorist organization Hamas launched an Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel, killing over 1,400 Israelis, wounding around 3,000, and kidnapping at least 130 others.
The retaliation air strikes on the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip by Israel have killed at least 2,200, and wounded another 8,714.
Misinformation has been rife as both sides in the conflict, and their supporters, attempt to gain the upper hand in the ongoing propaganda war.
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry claimed recently that at least 500 people were killed in an Oct. 17 blast at a hospital, blaming the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
The IDF denied it was responsible, and on Oct. 18, President Joe Biden revealed data collected by the United States Defense Department supports Israel’s claim that it wasn’t responsible.
Hamas also released a video recently showing a female hostage receiving medical treatment, but a White House spokesperson has since questioned its authenticity.
Israeli boy featured in COVID vaccine campaign dies of heart attack at age 8
After a distinguished physician’s grandson who appeared in vaccine promotions tragically passed away, one commentator asked, ‘How many more children will die on the golden altar?’
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/israeli-boy-featured-in-covid-vaccine-campaign-dies-of-heart-attack-at-age-8/
An Israeli boy featured in a video used to push COVID vaccines on children in a nationwide campaign died tragically from a sudden heart attack in late September. The boy was only 8 years old.
According to reports, Yonatan Moshe Erlichman, grandson of a distinguished physician in Beit El, Dr. Mati Erlichman, “died unexpectedly of cardiac arrest while taking a bath.”
The 8-year-old boy is said to have “slipped under the water after his heart suddenly stopped beating, causing him to drown.” After being rushed to Hadassah Hospital on Mount Scopus, Yonatan died a few days later on Sept. 28.
In 2020, at the age of 5, the child had appeared in a video produced by the regional council of Mateh Binyamin. The video was part of a government program aimed at pushing COVID vaccines on children, despite the nearly universal immunity of children to COVID-19.
The video made Yonatan a “poster child” for the vaccine campaign in Israel, which became one of the most draconian nations in the world for vaccine measures. The video aired just before the nationwide vaccine campaign began.
After the boy’s tragic death, the Erlichman family issued the following statement:
Our Yonatan Moshe passed away recently. On the eve of Yom Kippur, Yonatan suffered a cardiac arrest in our home, and since then we have fought by his side after he collapsed. With love we thank all those who are dear to us and who were by our side in the last days of his life.
Lamenting the tragedy, one Israeli commentator on social media asked indignantly, “Where are the headlines? The investigations? How many more children will die on the golden altar? In particular, there are already two controlled studies indicating that mRNA vaccines cause heart problems … Remember that at any given moment this can happen to your beloved children and grandchildren.”
Last year, an Argentine boy who had similarly served as a national poster child in an ad pushing Covid vaccination for children died suddenly at age 4. According to reports, Santino Godoy Blanco was rushed to the hospital because of a fever and vomiting and died of “bilateral pneumonia.”
“Before passing his mom says he took off his mask and gave her little kisses because he couldn’t talk anymore,” one post on X stated.
The tragedy of the boy’s death is underscored by the fact that the Argentine government uses his photo on their website to still push the vaccination of children. The boy is pictured holding up his fist, with a slogan stating, “Vaccines protect us.”
Dr. Robert Malone, inventor of the mRNA technology employed by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, has said that inoculating 28 million children 5 to 11 years old could lead to “1,000 or more excess deaths” while the risk from COVID-19 for healthy children is “about zero” and appears to be lower than the seasonal flu.
Dr. Peter McCullough, MD, professor of medicine at Texas A&M University Health Sciences Center, called for an “unbreakable resistance” against children receiving the jab. In a 2021 lecture, McCullough cited numerous studies while arguing that “the chance of myocarditis, and hospitalization with myocarditis, for one of these children who is going to be forced into vaccination … is greater than being hospitalized for COVID-19.”
In an October 2021 article for the Brownstone Institute, Dr. Paul Elias Alexander, who served in the Department of Health and Human Services during the COVID-19 pandemic under the Trump administration, called the push to vaccinate young children “dangerous” and “absolutely reckless.”
“The risk-benefit discussion for children with these Covid-19 injections is a very different one than that for adults,” Dr. Alexander said. “The fact is that this is a completely novel and experimental injection therapy with no medium or long-term safety data (or even definitive effectiveness data). If we move forward with the vaccination of our children without the proper safety testing, then we will present them with potentially catastrophic risk, including deaths in some.”
Just got our lease renewal (Las Vegas, NV, 89121).
One year, 10% (10.26% to be exact) increase. In addition, “Upon receipt of this Renewal Notice a $150 fee will be charged.”
Fee for what?
I just talked to the PM. Asked, he said it’s for renewing the lease. My reply was, so it’s bullshit, $150 for a piece of paper.
i assume you are not reupping??
maybe you should him some articles about how rent is dropping. UP 10%, GFY. Seriously what kind of drugs is he smoking.
That was part of the conversation. First thing I wanted to know was who set the increase. Turns out it was the owner.
Don’t want to bore everyone with the convo, laughed when he said with the increase we could submit repairs (?), and they’d be done 🤣 I said isn’t that what I pay for anyway? No answer.
Told him we are not schmucks, been a little busy (my mother’s seven-year illness, 24/7 care at home all those years and subsequent death, then realizing I was ill, prob for a long time and then got swept up into the cancer factory.)
Bitch LL. Since we’ve been here, two outlets have sparked, one resulting in a significant fire requiring a total reno of the room. A section of the garage ceiling collapsed, coating everything in desiccated asbestos. She tried to get her handyman to clean it up, but we stopped him. We ended up walking around it, covered by a tarp, for four months. God knows what it cost for the prof abatement company, only hired when she found out my husband had worked for the NYC housing auth, felt threatened.
I was too bummed out by other things to directly confront this stuff. Daughter decides this is the time to become cantankerous and rebel. Moves out, ghosts me.
Due to the crapshackiness of the place, and the single pane windows, our energy bills are high, and we are often quite uncomfortable because we keep them down.
And then there’s Vegas, baby. Used to be fun. The whole place has changed.
Sorry for the TMI.
Got till the end of year to decide.
Sorry to hear about all that, Tarara. Renting and crappy landlords suck. Sounds like it’s time to tell this one to pound sand, but I know how big a pain it is (and how much it costs) to upend yourself and your life. Good luck with the decision…
Don’t be a sheep to the slaughter. It’s funny how so many I talk to think that when they get a notice like this they must comply or get out. Do you know what a hassle it is to reoccupy a rental and the costs involved to the property management or landlord direct? Call their stinking bluff. And if they say no move on. Their is so many negotiating on rentals right now. Heck, I bet in LV you got a lot of brand new stuff they’re giving the first three months free and waiving the deposit. It’s happening where I’m at North of you. I just told my sister-in-law the same thing I told you and guess what? Their landlord backed off and kept the rent the same. These guys know the score right now, and if they don’t they soon will. Rent will be dropping in the months ahead. Bank on it. Research why because I’m done typing.
Send back your counteroffer, which states you would like a 10% decrease or it’s audios muchacho. Seriously, tell them no or your out. They’re gonna eat that 10% in the first month that it’s vacant. Remember, everything is negotiable. Just because they says it so doesn’t make it so.
Okay, it just took 10 minutes of internet searches to prove my suspicions. The LV rental market is getting hammered. This has been a year of decreases there, not increases. Even that rag the “Review Journal” has posted articles on the massive rental inventory currently on the market and coming soon to the market. And rents are down 2% as of August. So maybe my suggestion of a counteroffer with a 10% decrease is a little steep. Go with an offer of a 5% decrease. If they don’t take it you got plenty to choose from.
I think the landlords are hoping that the chore of moving will be a disincentive to move.
No doubt, and it is.
If it comes to that. It sucks, no doubt about it. And if I lived closer I’d help ya move if it came to it. But to heck with them.
🤗 Aww, that’s the nicest thing anyone has said to me since I don’t know when ❤️ Made my day.
I think the landlords are hoping that the chore of moving will be a disincentive to move.
Yes — it is an expense of time and money. Plus you may end up in an even worse situation — bad neighbors, broken amenities, rude management, etc.
I moved in 2022 and it was a pain. I ended up in a nice spot that we are happy with at the moment, and our rent went up a nominal amount this year which was not offensive. My area is NOT going down in prices yet for rentals although homes are seeing some declines. I’d need to live in the barrios for cheaper rent and I refuse that cultural enrichment.
may end up in an even worse situation
So true.
On the pro side of my pros/cons list – all nasty/nuts have been identified and been dormant for quite a while.
Another pro: LL must be a pet lover. No fees, no limit (!) on number. When we first got here, I began to tell the PM about our pets, and he almost covered his ears and “la, la, la”-ed. It was weird, no clue why. With everyone charging fees with any BS pretext now, I’m not going to find that elsewhere. Disloyalty toward them would kill me and, at their age, no one would want them.
I’ve read that application fees (sometimes for every person in the household) are outrageous and a money-maker all on their own. No refunds if turned down!
Rjcn, thanks for the advice.
I’ve only met her twice. I don’t think she’s aware, but I certainly will inform her. I’ve been collecting articles about LV rents falling for about three months now, posted them on city-data (which no one seems to read anymore.)
It’s ironic that we’ve had so many unfortunate things happen here (fire, plague, pestilence) and she’s conveniently oblivious. My husband and I call it the “Let Them Eat Cake” house. I’m embarrassed to admit it, but the front door’s peephole is a drilled hole – hard to believe.
And I apologize if I seem overly passionate. But it does drive me a bit nuts sometimes, and I’m not saying this is you, but it drives me nuts when it comes to stuff like this people just lay down and say it is what it is. In the real estate game almost all things are negotiable. It just all depends on who’s holding the winning hand and when. We know who’s holding the winning hand right now. Call their bluff.
Yeah, I’m not. This is an opening salvo, as far as I’m concerned.
As a matter of fact, that meek acceptance, to an extent, caused the rift with my daughter. I was trying to tell her there are many ways to skin a cat, and that passive-aggression (passive-aggressiveness?) can be an effective strategy. (I tried to tell her to hold out as long as possible on MGM’s vaccine mandate. Yes ’em to death, then don’t do it. Lost that one.)
Everything’s negotiable, sometimes surprisingly so. Just bc they say you have to do something doesn’t mean you must obey.
but it drives me nuts when it comes to stuff like this people just lay down and say it is what it is
On the flip side, sometimes it’s not worth dying on that hill. There are potential negative outcomes that may not be worth risking…
I’m all about taking a principled stand, and having the conversation, but sometimes sadly the better outcome is to suck it up and “pre-compromise” as I like to consider it.
pre-compromise
Always a PITA. I was amusing myself earlier, thinking stay calm – this happens every year (or two) around this time!
If she wanted us out, it would have been a much bigger increase. I’ve read some horror stories here. I have a list of grievances and an amount I’d be okay with in mind. If it weren’t for the beasts and my not feeling so hot, we would have been out of here right after my mother passed away. Thx ❤️
‘generally, pricing nationally is starting to fall more in line with what many real estate experts consider to be fair market values. ‘Higher interest rates may be to blame, but some of that drop can be attributed to sellers and their agents no longer pricing homes at over market value as they did in 2022,’ says Lehman. ‘2022 was an anomaly, especially in Florida. Low supply and low interest rates fueled that wave’
‘some of that drop can be attributed to sellers and their agents no longer pricing homes at over market value as they did in 2022’
It could be that drop is attributed to you don’t have buyers at those prices Vivian.
‘I am based in NYC, and we are already seeing prices start to come down, especially where all cash offers are concerned’
That’s the spirit cash buyers, go for the kill!
‘The 50 percent decline is much more than the assumed 15 to 25 percent drop in multifamily values nationwide, Clancy said. It could speak to ‘things beyond interest rates like quality of life, occupancy and rent levels’
Manus, I’ll have you know this fine city is on the vanguard of public/private spending on bum urine resistant lamp posts. It’s a whole bay aryan/VC thing you wouldn’t understand.
‘Greedy Guelph builder who terminated 32 new build contracts in Elora two years ago had to take a 30 per cent haircut on this place in order to sell it!’
That’s the spirit housing advocate!
‘German housing prices are already off 14% from a peak in March 2022, Allianz calculates. The rest of Europe is following, with a 5% to 10% drop projected by the end of 2024. That still won’t be enough to bring buyers out at current interest rates, Allianz figures. Prices on average will have to fall more like 15% to match the purchasing power potential buyers have lost to tighter money and inflation’
And prices were in a global bubble before minor respiratory virus.
‘Higher interest rates are naturally choking the supply of new housing, too. Construction permits in Germany fell by a quarter in the first half of 2023 compared with the prior year’
Oh the job loss. Always comes at the worst possible time in situations like this.
“‘By the end of 2024, I believe prices will drop but not by a landslide,’ says Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens.. Her conservative estimate is a 2% decrease…”
That’s hilarious Bess! Maybe you have a future in stand up comedy when your Relitter career ends!
Things Are Changing Quickly In Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham Real Estate – Oct 11
Team Sessa Real Estate
1 hour ago
Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices for the week of Oct 5 – Oct 11, 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BST_1B9WK0
13:41.
C-21: A Second Hunting Rifle Ban
Raquel Dancho
3 hours ago
Thanks to the hundreds of thousands of Canadian hunters, farmers, and sports shooters who got organized and made their voices heard, the Liberals had to back down from their first hunting rifle ban. But they replaced it with a second, sneakier one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xb2C5nYzfHI
4 minutes.
Meanwhile, they tell you that they are only coming for “assault rifles”. They don’t want you to have anything, not even a BB gun.
…while arming up the police.
…and their private protection/security
‘You need something else than just an AR-15’ to go ‘against the government,’ Biden said this week
Cortney O’Brien By Cortney O’Brien Fox News
Published June 23, 2023 6:00pm EDT
“So what’s the deal with the idea that it’s an absolute — you know, I love these guys who say the Second Amendment is — you know, the tree of liberty is watered with the blood of patriots. Well, if you want to do that, you want to work against the government, you need an F-16. You need something else than just an AR-15.”
https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-blasted-f-16-quip-gun-rights-advocates-blatantly-misrepresenting-constitution
When the Garand Became the Greatest Battle Implement
T. Logan Metesh
Jan 26, 2020
On January 26, 1945, Lieutenant General George S. Patton, Jr. uttered the famous phrase, “In my opinion, the M-1 Rifle is the greatest battle implement ever devised.” Well, actually, he didn’t say it – he wrote it.
https://www.highcaliberhistory.com/post/when-the-garand-became-the-greatest-battle-implement
It feels like they’ll start World War III if that’s what it takes to keep DJT from returning to the White House.
More false flag operations, happening soon…
San Francisco’s Brand Is in Trouble. Can a New Ad Campaign Fix It?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/san-francisco-brand-trouble-ad-190141564.html
San Franciscans don’t like outsiders bashing their city, but they’re also cleareyed about its biggest problems: homelessness, rampant drug use and leaders who can’t seem to fix those issues.
So how does San Francisco turn its lackluster image around?
(Such a good question, no?)
Some wealthy locals say the way forward is a brand refresh, and they are throwing their support behind a new $4 million ad campaign that will promote San Francisco as a hub of innovation and creativity.
(A BRAND REFRESH. Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.)
The slogan? “It All Starts Here.”
(And it spreads like a cancer.)
It’s meant to remind San Franciscans — and everyone else — that the city of cable cars, Levi’s jeans, the Summer of Love, Gap Inc., Uber, Harvey Milk and the Golden State Warriors still has an exciting future ahead of it.
The campaign, funded by tech billionaire Chris Larsen and Bob Fisher, whose parents founded Gap in San Francisco in the 1960s, includes a social media video narrated by actor Peter Coyote, hundreds of billboards around the city, banners hanging from light poles, and bumper stickers and signs for business owners and residents to hang in their windows.
“No question we’ve got problems we’ve got to fix,” said Larsen, who has funded numerous startups and now sees his city’s reputation as desperately needing investment.
“But we can’t let the brand just suffer,” he added. “We’ve got so much to be proud of, and we can’t lose sight of that.”
The campaign will be announced Thursday at Oracle Park, the home of the San Francisco Giants. While it has been mostly funded by Larsen and Fisher, the campaign is being orchestrated by Advance SF, a new organization made up of the city’s biggest employers, as an effort to bolster civic pride and lure tourists and convention-goers back.
San Francisco’s tourism industry is slowly returning, but it hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic. In August, for example, data collected by the city tourism board showed that 69% of the city’s hotel rooms were occupied that month, compared with 85% during the same month in 2019.
“What we need to do is not let the self-fulfilling prophecies engulf us,” said Larry Baer, the Giants’ president and a co-chair of Advance SF. He noted that it was especially important to break out of the malaise as President Joe Biden and other heads of state were scheduled to come to the city next month for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
“This is a major pushback against a narrative we think is false,” Baer said.
Still, there’s no doubt that locals are down on their city. A poll of 458 San Francisco voters conducted last month by GrowSF, a moderate political advocacy group, found that 68% of respondents thought the city was on the wrong track.
At least 80% cited homelessness, open-air drug use and fentanyl dealing as very serious problems, and about two-thirds disapproved of the job that Mayor London Breed and the Board of Supervisors were doing.
The good news: 86% of respondents believe that the city’s problems can be fixed. But can a few catchy words on bumper stickers really help?
Well, maybe.
Consider New York City in the late 1970s. Crime in the city was surging, tourism was suffering, and a blackout in 1977 prompted widespread looting and arrests. The city was nearing bankruptcy, and President Gerald Ford was refusing to offer federal help.
So the state of New York hired a Madison Avenue advertising firm, Wells Rich Greene, to develop a campaign to draw back visitors. They teamed up with graphic designer Milton Glaser, who used a red crayon on a piece of scrap paper to create the original “I Love NY” logo, with a red heart in place of the word “love.”
Of course, a logo emblazoned on untold numbers of T-shirts in Times Square can’t be credited with changing an entire city’s fate. But it did at least coincide with renewed civic pride, a revitalized tourism industry and an eventual economic recovery.
Stefan Gruber, the director of the Remaking Cities Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, pointed to “I Love NY” as perhaps the best example of an effort to rebrand a city.
“We still buy the T-shirts after so many years!” he said with a laugh. “But that’s just scratching the surface.”
What really helped turn New York around in the 1970s, he argued, was the creation of the Urban Homesteading Assistance Board, which turned thousands of derelict housing units into rehabilitated cooperative housing for low-income tenants and reinvigorated neighborhoods.
“We cannot fix cities’ problems by hiring advertising agencies,” Gruber said, noting that the real way to transform San Francisco is to build more affordable housing in a city with a widening wealth gap and find creative ways to enliven the hollowed-out downtown.
Fisher, the chair of Gap, said that San Francisco hasn’t built enough housing over the past several decades and that it has wrapped itself in too much red tape to do so quickly.
Still, he said he was hopeful for a comeback.
“We love this place,” Fisher said. “I’m excited about the future.”
San Francisco’s tourism industry is slowly returning
Has a single convention returned? Most relocated because attendees said they refused to come to San Francisco.
Does it seem like the stock market just can’t catch a break any more?
DOW 30 -0.75%
S&P 500 -0.85%
NASDAQ 100 -0.85%
Americans are about to feel the impact of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president says
Jennifer Sor Oct 19, 2023, 10:38 AM PDT
Jonathan Gray
Higher borrowing costs could soon weigh on the American consumer, Johnathan Gray warned.
Heidi Gutman/NBCUniversal via Getty Images
– Consumers are about to feel the impact of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president Johnathan Gray told the FT.
– The yield on the 10-year US Treasury continued to rise on Thursday, edging closer to 5%.
– Higher bond yields are raising borrowing costs all over the economy, from mortgages to personal loans.
…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-bond-crash-yields-us-consumer-spending-pain-blackstone-economy-2023-10
If Jerome Powell doen’t intend to keep at it with efforts to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target rate, he certainly has me fooled.
Updated Thu, Oct 19 2023 9:46 PM EDT
Stock futures slip as 10-year Treasury yield crosses 5% for the first time since 2007: Live updates
Pia Singh
Traders on the floor of the NYSE, Oct. 12, 2023.
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 12, 2023.
Source: NYSE
Stock futures dipped Thursday evening as traders focused on a recent run higher in the 10-year Treasury yield.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average
were down 63 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 0.4%.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury crossed 5% for the first time in 16 years. The 10-year yield hit 5.001% around 5 p.m. ET, the first time it has traded above that level since July 20, 2007 when it yielded as high as 5.029%.
In after-hours trading, shares of SolarEdge tumbled 21% as the company trimmed its third-quarter revenue guidance. Knight-Swift Transportation gained 15% after beating estimates in the third quarter on both the top and bottom lines.
The action follows a volatile day for stocks. The 30-stock Dow
shed 250.91 points, or 0.75%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.85%. The Nasdaq Composite slid nearly 1%.
Stocks were rattled Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke in New York. He said inflation remains too high and lower economic growth will likely be needed to bring it down. Powell also said he doesn’t think rates are too high now.
“While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2 percent,” he added.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
The Fed let inflation run wild in the 1980s, leaving it up to Paul Volcker to step in and crush it, with the entire US economy suffering severe colateral damage.
To the cheerleaders for the Fed to venture down the same path, I say: Really!?
Financial Times
Opinion Central banks
That 2% inflation target may not be sacred for much longer
Geopolitics, including the conflict in the Middle East, is complicating the calculations of interest rate-setters
Gillian Tett
Illustration of a balloon with red target circles and a big number two on it and red arrows being shot at it
Gillian Tett 11 hours ago
Earlier this month, the doughty institution that is the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development issued its annual report. This included a novel twist: an appeal for western central banks to rethink their mandates.
Yes, really. “Central bankers should relax their 2 per cent inflation target and assume a wider stabilising role,” the Geneva-based group declared, lamenting that “tighter monetary policy has so far contributed little to price easing [but delivered] a steep cost in terms of inequality and damaged investment prospects.”
I doubt financial traders will pay any attention; to them Unctad is merely a stodgy bureaucracy. Nor will Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, or his counterparts in Europe and the UK.
After all, the mantra from those central bankers is that the 2 per cent target is (still) a sacred medium term goal. And officials such as Powell insist that inflation is steadily drifting down from last year’s sky-high levels — and should continue to do so. That is partly true: in America, say, the consumer price index in September was 3.7 per cent — while in the UK it was 6.7 per cent.
But stodgy or not, Unctad’s report is a notable straw in the wind. For it crystallises a question I have repeatedly heard muttered by public and private sector voices: is there any point in retaining that two per cent target in a world where inflation seems likely to remain above this level for the foreseeable future — even if it is “only” around four?
Or as one Fed regional president told me this summer, after touring local companies: “Everyone keeps asking if three [per cent] is the new two.”
…
“The Fed let inflation run wild in the 1980s…”
Inflation hit the second half of the 70s, and high interest rates during the early 80s, IIRC.
I took out a mortgage @17% in 1978.
Full of vigor and vim, I bought a new pickup truck for work at 18.9% in 1982; it was the stupidest commitment I’ve ever signed. But the indelible scar tissue likely saved me later on in life. 🙂
MarketWatch
Opinion: Sell signs are popping up all over the stock market
Published: Oct. 19, 2023 at 3:15 p.m. ET
By Lawrence G. McMillan
S&P 500 is in a clear downtrend, but defensive consumer staples sector looks solid
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, is struggling to maintain some bullishness after bouncing off support at 4200 (and also bouncing off its 200-day Moving Average at the same time). There are certainly headwinds presented by yet another Mideast crisis, but the technical picture presents problems of its own.
First of all, the chart of SPX is still in a downtrend. The patterns of lower highs and lower lows has not been broken. The downtrend line is current at 4430 and falling. Second, there is still the…
DJIA Futures -0.18%▼
S&P 500 Futures -0.17%▼
Stoxx 600 -0.88%▼
The Wall Street Journal
Streetwise
There’s a Reason This Bull Market Feels So Weird
The past year’s stock-market rally looks more like the tail end of a bull run, rather than the beginning
By James Mackintosh
Oct. 20, 2023 5:30 am ET
At the start of the past four bull markets, the rebound was led by banks and smaller companies.
Photo: Mark Lennihan/Associated Press
We are now more than a year from the bear-market low of October 2022, and while the bull market isn’t exactly raging, stocks are still up more than 20%.
The markets, though, aren’t behaving as they usually do at the start of long-lasting bull markets. In some respects, the past year looks more like the tail end of one than the beginning. This makes me worry it may not last.
Everything goes up.
That’s pretty much it. At the start of the past four bull markets, the rebound was led by banks and smaller companies. And in three out of the four bull markets, earnings forecasts rose, too. But investors took a simplistic approach to bullishness and bought almost everything. It was hard to lose money on stocks.
This time, large numbers of stocks went down, even as the S&P 500 went up. Banks did badly, and smaller companies worse, while earnings expectations have dropped. This isn’t normal.
A few examples:
– Only two-thirds of members of the S&P rose over the 12 months, compared with 88%-97% in the first 12 months of the past four bull markets, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
– The smallest companies missed out on the gains entirely. The Russell Microcap index of the smallest 1,500 or so stocks is down, continuing last year’s bear market. The Russell 2000 has eked out a 6% gain, but much has come from a handful of its biggest constituents.
– Even within big stocks the concentration of gains in the very biggest has been extraordinary. Half the gains in the S&P came from just eight stocks; in the first year of the four previous bull markets it took at least 38 stocks to get to half the gains.
The concentration of gains among the biggest stocks is one of three features that distinguish this bull, and is something that typically happens at the end of bull markets, not the start.
Bull markets are often defined as when stocks go up 20%. But a bull market is more than just stocks rising for a bit. In a bull market they should trend upward over multiple years, as they did from 1990 to 2000, 2002 to 2007, 2009 to 2020, and 2020 to 2022, with only brief and relatively shallow drops.
If this latest bull market peters out, it could turn out to be nothing more than a very large bounce amid the bear market that began at the start of last year.
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Yahoo
Yahoo Finance
Even strong earnings might not be able to save stocks
Josh Schafer
Fri, October 20, 2023 at 2:30 AM PDT·2 min read
In this article:
Companies are reporting earnings beats on both the top and bottom lines thus far in the third quarter. But it isn’t helping the stock market.
All three of the major indexes closed lower on Thursday. Stocks took a noticeable shift downward after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank was doubling down on the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance, sending bond yields to their highs of the day.
The move was emblematic of the market over the past several weeks, which has been almost entirely driven by the “pain trade” in bonds.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-strong-earnings-might-not-be-able-to-save-stocks-093000833.html
Dumb questions for electronic tulip fans to ponder:
1) What is the fundamental value of cryptocurrency, outside of offering a financial conduit for large scale international underground economic activities?
2) If bitcoin has intrinsic worth, why are investors so singularly focused on whether an ETF is approved? Would that be akin to when FTX got all those Super Bowl ads on the air?
Barron’s
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Slips. But Hopes for an ETF Still Persist.
By Jack Denton
Updated Oct 19, 2023, 8:38 am EDT / Original Oct 19, 2023, 5:10 am EDT
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies weakened Thursday, but digital assets remained at relatively elevated levels as hopes persist that regulators will soon approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund—a key catalyst for cryptos that has loomed for months.
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Business
Hamas money laundering worries spark proposed new U.S. crypto rule
by Julia Shapero – 10/19/23 3:16 PM ET
Tehran, Iran. Iranian pro-government supporters celebrate the Hamas attack on Israel by waving the Palestinian flag in Palestine Square in Tehran on Oct. 7, 2023. Hundreds of pro-government Iranians demonstrated in Palestine Square in Tehran to show their support for Hamas and the Palestinian resistance. Hamas militants launched a coordinated assault, involving air, land, and sea elements, into Israel from the Gaza Strip.
(Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
The Biden administration on Thursday proposed labeling a cryptocurrency practice that provides customers with anonymity as a money laundering concern, amid a larger effort to crack down on illicit uses of crypto in the wake of Hamas’ surprise attacks on Israel.
The Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) said the rule would identify international crypto mixing — a practice that anonymizes crypto funds by mixing them with others — as a primary money laundering concern and would require financial institutions to report transactions involving crypto mixing.
“Today’s action underscores Treasury’s commitment to combating the exploitation of Convertible Virtual Currency mixing by a broad range of illicit actors, including state-affiliated cyber actors, cyber criminals, and terrorist groups,” Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said in a statement.
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https://thehill.com/business/4265344-hamas-money-laundering-worries-spark-new-u-s-crypto-rule/
DOW FUTURES -0.21%
S&P 500 FUTURES -0.21%
NASDAQ 100 FUTURES -0.27%
A spot bitcoin ETF is coming this year and the SEC’s loss in court made clear that its opposition makes ‘intellectually zero sense,’ billionaire crypto bull Mike Novogratz says
Jennifer Sor
Oct 18, 2023, 8:55 AM PDT
The race for the first US bitcoin ETF is heating up
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
– A spot bitcoin ETF could be coming as soon as this year, crypto bull Mike Novogratz said.
-The billionaire investor told CNBC the approval process was likely headed in the right direction.
– Still, regulators have repeatedly punted on a decision to approve any bitcoin ETF this year.
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https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/spot-bitcoin-etf-outlook-crypto-mike-novogratz-sec-approval-blackrock-2023-10
Yahoo
Business Insider
The Treasury bond market is headed for an unknown destination as it sheds key anchors, Mohamed El-Erian says
Filip De Mott
Tue, October 17, 2023 at 3:50 PM PDT·2 min read
Mohamed El-Erian
– The Treasury bond market is headed for an unknown destination, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in the Financial Times.
– “The US bond market is losing its strategic footing, whether in economics, policy, or technical aspects.”
– Treasury resilience may be at risk if key anchors are not reestablished.
The Treasury bond market is headed for the unknown as it sheds key anchors, economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote in the Financial Times.
The recent volatility that rocked bond yields into sudden extremes goes beyond the latest reports on inflation or policy stances from Federal Reserve officials, the chief economic adviser to Allianz added.
“The US bond market is losing its strategic footing, whether in economics, policy, or technical aspects,” he said.
Currently, long-term Treasury yields are hovering near 5% amid a massive US bond sell-off, due in part to a strong US economy that will require extended tightening to further rein in inflation.
This also comes as the US ran a $1.7 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2023, with the Treasury Department issuing a massive supply of bonds. And the Isreal-Hamas war has added to geopolitical worries that have contributed to the rollercoaster ride Treasurys are on.
“But my primary concern lies elsewhere: the most influential segment of the world’s financial markets is losing its longer-term strategic anchors and is at risk of losing its short-term stabilizer ones as well,” El-Erian said, raising doubt about who will absorb the additional supply of US debt.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-bond-market-headed-unknown-225032331.html
As any Wall Street bull might note, the bond market climbs a wall of worry.