Liquidity Is Still Limited, Leading To An Unreasonable Decrease In Selling Prices

1. ‘says his family have been living in a ‘horrid rental’ while they wait for their home to be built. ‘We’re renting nearby at extortionate rates having forfeited the luxury of a dishwasher, have three possums in the roof and walls, mushrooms growing from seven places in the bathroom, worms and slugs coming out of the drain almost daily, you have to switch off the heater if you want to use the toaster’

   Ah-HA Dave, you only need a dishwasher and toaster cuz you and the kids have been EATING! A real winnah would get those possums and mushroom and slugs and make a winnahs! stew.

   1. ”Possum innards are just as good the second day”.

      https://youtu.be/GAaUcExaMfA?si=xr3twoCFKZl0rWYw

2. ‘The fall of Xu and the financial and managerial problems associated with Evergrande raised a serious question about the effectiveness of auditing in China’s real estate market’

   ‘As of mid-October 2023, it was reported that about 800,000 of 1.2 million pre-sold properties were not yet completed’

   Yes, we need an audit! As in wa happened to all those pesos?

   1. Gosh, this makes me wonder if all those official Chinese statistics showing solid growth and a rosy economic outlook weren’t perhaps falsified, ABQ Dan’s assurances notwithstanding.

   2. What kind of an idiot buys pre-sold properties? May as well blow your money on imaginary coins.

      1. Based on many posts here with links to foreign news stories, it seems to be the norm in a lot of places, especially in Oz.

         But yeah, you’d think that people would be wary of handing over their life savings for an unbuilt airbox.

         A poster mentioned the other day the stigma of buying a used airbox in China. At least the dang thing exists, and if it’s falling apart because of poor workmanship you’ll also know.

      2. May as well blow your money

         An epidemic of magical thinking, probably by people who never had to produce anything tangible.

3. ‘Many of the owners live abroad, some are in later stages of life, and few know each other personally as most apartments had been bought as an overseas investment to be rented out. Moreover, owners are hamstrung by the slow pace of justice in Cyprus and understandably squeamish about incurring massive legal bills on top of ordeals they have already suffered. ‘It’s been a 20-year-long nightmare, we have cried so much about it. We just don’t know where to go from here’

   You don’t have to go anywhere couple. You can sit on yer couch at home, put yer heads between yer knees and kiss yer a$$es goodbye!

4. You will own nothing.

5. ‘In HCMC, the lowest price of new projects was VND30 million ($1,222) per square meter and the highest was up to VND185.5 million ($7,560)’

   In US peso terms Vietnam may have the biggest bubble on the planet. As we’ve read before they have decades of supply of super lux airboxes.

6. ‘I jumped in with two feet too fast, but I felt like I had to,’ she said. ‘I just feel I was taken advantage of’

   If it’s any consolation Laurie, the knife catcher that bought yer igloo got schlonged too.

   1. Show some empathy, Ben. She was vulnerable, & Mr. Chow vulnered her.

   2. “When HHBI owner Mike Chow arrived at Thompson’s townhouse for a walkthrough last January, she told him:

      1. Her employment had been sporadic,

      2. The mortgage lender wanted her debt paid off immediately and …

      3. That she was struggling emotionally — a few months earlier, her partner had unexpectedly died from a heart attack.

      She told this Mike Chow this information and subsequently Mike Chow was able to use this information to hose her on the deal.

      “I just feel I was taken advantage of”, she says.

      What a dummy.

      1. “There is nothing so dangerous for anyone who has something to hide as conversation!… A human being, Hastings, cannot resist the opportunity to reveal himself and express his personality which conversation gives him. Every time he will give himself away.”

         – Agatha Christie

         1. “Stupid should hurt.” — A random dude on the internet.

         2. Technically, that quote belongs to Hercule Poirot, though he is a fictional character,

      2. a few months earlier, her partner had unexpectedly died from a heart attack

         A double whammy. She got schlonged on her condo and got to witness first hand the wonders of the miracle jab.

         1. Nice call, InColorado. you beat me to it. Revealed her extremely weak and desperate situation in a business negotiation. But still doin better than her “partner”, who won the clot shot lottery.

7. Napa County had the steepest decline, falling nearly 11% to a median of $890,000.

   Is that a lot?

8. The investors had originally lent the pair their money through the federal EB-5 visa program.

   “Lent,” huh?

   1. Foreigners either invest in USRE or lend money for USRE buyers. They receive a visa in return.

9. Is Airbnb Doomed? Maybe
   Angry Mortgage Podcast
   2 hours ago

   And it might just be DAMN TIME, New York Banned Short Term Rental, 2 weeks ago BC said it will table legislation to ban most short term in the Province. Now the Federal Government in Ottawa has chimed in: not looking good for Airbnb. And that’s OK, we DON’T need illegal Hotel Rooms we need long term rental and more homes for Canadians to buy.

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=433W53QqvyE

   6:15.

   1. Die, speculator scum.

10. Canada, land of all that timber, has some of the poorest construction methods anywhere , their houses are pure trash, I recall not that long ago , they used pressed cardboard , with some paint to seal it, for all the facer boards on new houses , just so it looked good and smooth ,at sale-time….

11. (Tenant complains to the state of California that the place she rented for nine years is not safe, the State agrees with her and hence forces her to move out. She eventually found another place to rent that costs her $400 more a month.)

    Mother of four forced out of rental home in just 72 hours thanks to negligent landlord: ‘I brought all my kids home here’

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/mother-four-forced-rental-home-040000813.html

12. If the Fed loses control of the debt market, it’s Game Over for its asset bubbles & Ponzi markets.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-10-year-tops-5-for-first-time-in-16-years-ba05d580?mod=mw_latestnews

    1. I think a lot of the run up was hedge fund shorting the long yield. IMO it will pull back to 4.5% and consolidate for now, but end up at 6-7% next year. Mortgages at 10%. Game over for the REIC for a decade.

       1. Game over for the REIC for a decade

          I don’t know about the future, but I’d bet we’re already at game over. Grow or Die.

       2. “…Mortgages at 10%….”

          10% was un-possible as recently as a few months ago.
          That rate may be conservative.

          Antidotal (SoCal Orange County)
          REIConplex agent pounded on my front door just this afternoon.
          Pleasant conversation. Desperation in agents eyes un-hidable.

13. “Macau Business.”

    “The rise and fall of Xu Jiayin deserve our attention and deeper analyses because of his ‘red capitalist’ nature in a socialist regime.”
    

    “The fall of Xu and the financial and managerial problems associated with Evergrande raised a serious question about the effectiveness of auditing in China’s real estate market. A healthy company must have external and internal auditing, which serves as an essential checks and balance mechanism for good corporate governance.”

    “In the final analysis, the mixed economy of China remains partial in its reforms, including the long overdue supervision over the relations between state-owned banks and land developers, the excessive loans offered by banks, the internal mismanagement and overstretched expansion of any land developer into other areas that could easily be undermined as a result of chain reactions (like the incomplete Guangzhou football stadium that was eventually taken over by the mainland government).”

    “The socialist regime in the mainland has a fast-developing mixed economy in which the capitalistic and marketized aspects have clearly ‘corrupted’ the relations between the executives of the banking industry and the elites of the real estate market, while the socialist aspects have demanded immediate and effective governmental controls over corporate misgovernance, which can have detrimental impacts on the mainland’s social and economic security.”

    – Translation: ANY centrally planned, command and control economy is doomed to fail. ANY mixture of central planning and capitalism is also doomed to fail. The only economic system that lifts all boats is capitalism, in spite it’s shortcomings.

    – The CCP’s Communist-Capitalism is an unholy alliance based on copious amounts of evil with just a smidgen of good. Any reliance on debt-fueled spending will end in tears.

    – The U.S., and in fact, the entire OECD developed world, are following the CCP model of a “mixed” economy, with liberal amounts of tyranny, authoritarianism, and fascism thrown in. Don’t expect good outcomes. Do expect similar results as per the Middle Kingdom. To add insult to injury, it would appear that the economies of world are individually going off the rails at approximately the same time. Bad luck, or good planning. I’ll let the reader decide…

    “A little yeast works through the whole batch of dough.” – Galatians 5:9, NIV

    “A society that chooses between capitalism and socialism does not choose between two social systems; it chooses between social cooperation and the disintegration of society.” – Ludwig von Mises

    “The social system of private property and limited government is the only system that tends to debarbarize all those who have the innate capacity to acquire personal culture.” – Ludwig von Mises

    “There is no such thing as a mixed economy, a system that would be in part capitalistic and in part socialist. Production is directed by the market or by the decrees of a production tsar or a committee of production tsars.” – Ludwig von Mises, ‘Human Action,’ p. 258

    “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money [to spend].” – Margaret Thatcher

    “The enduring lesson of the 20th century is that socialism is a failure, and free markets are a success. But the politicians keep advocating just a little more socialism.” – Milton Friedman

    A major source of objection to a free economy is precisely that it … gives people what they want instead of what a particular group thinks they ought to want. Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. – Milton Friedman

    “The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.” – Winston Churchill

    “At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction.” – Joseph A. Schumpeter [What we have now is bailouts, interventions, and financial repression out the wazoo. But, “Capitalism.”]

    1. ‘capitalistic and marketized aspects have clearly ‘corrupted’ the relations between the executives of the banking industry and the elites of the real estate market’

       The only country more corrupt than China is Ukranistan. The author put a lot into this but it’s kind of a ‘what went wrong here’ thing. I don’t see how the CCP gets out of this alive. The only thing that kept them in power was growth and the police state. Growth is long gone Xitler.

       1. Time to wag the dog.

       2. ANY centrally planned, command and control economy is doomed to fail. ANY mixture of central planning and capitalism is also doomed to fail. The only economic system that lifts all boats is capitalism, in spite it’s shortcomings.

          I agree with the first two sentences. But I would point out that “capitalism” does not equal “free market economy”, though the terms are often confused.

          I believe the correct understanding of “capitalism” comes from the literal meaning of the word, i.e. the supremacy of money or “capital” in the economy.

          Producing real wealth requires both capital and labor, and ideally these factors should both be in the same or closely related hands. But capitalism emphasizes the providers of capital as being separate, distant, and dominant entities, and laborers as being subordinate, interchangeable drones. Government policies are then set up to validate and reinforce this structure.

          In a free market economy, government would favor neither labor nor capital, but allow individuals and small businesses to find the right balance on their own. This system would also avoid labor disputes and the inherent corruption and conflicts of interest involved with the dominance of Wall Street and the banking system.

          1. inherent corruption

             Corruption spoils anything it touches.

       3. I don’t see how the CCP gets out of this alive. The only thing that kept them in power was growth and the police state. Growth is long gone Xitler.

          Their schools teach some rather nasty narratives about how the foreigner devils will crush and subjugate the Glorious Chinese People without the Party’s benevolent leadership. This works great on children, but starts to fall apart as an adult who needs to work hard and save in a system with a limited society safety net.

          1. Brute force. If they can disappear Jack Ma, they can easily disappear 10 million people out of 1.4 billion and the world wouldn’t notice.

             1. The world wouldn’t care. They are just human lives, after all.

    2. the economies of world are individually going off the rails at approximately the same time

       The fruits of Globalism all ripening in season.

14. SF Airbnb host faces $300K in damages after guests clog toilet, flood home
    ABC7 News Bay Area

    Oct 21, 2023
    A pregnant woman and her husband is facing nearly $300,000 in losses and damage after guests left her Airbnb unit in San Francisco’s Mission District flooded and in disrepair. The couple is now left with a massive bill, and nowhere to live.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgQXMAeToSk

    3 minutes.

    1. Gemzer estimates that the damage done, the lost revenue from not being able to rent her place, and other costs add up to about $300,000.

       Gemzer says she’s disappointed by Airbnb’s coverage policy for hosts.

       “They advertise it as $3 million for hosts for guaranteed protection. So as a host, the idea is we have you covered top to bottom, so don’t worry,” said Gemzer.

       According to Gemzer, that’s not the case.

       “It turns out 90% of that is not covered. They have given me an offer of $31,000” said Gemzer.

       Gemzer says she believed she was fully covered, between Airbnb’s host coverage and her own homeowner’s insurance.

       “I believed it. I believed my house was covered for $3 million. My house is not worth $3 million so I assumed with that and my home insurance I was covered. That was not the case. So for people who are thinking of being a host, look into all the insurance you could buy all of it. Buy all of it,” said Gemzer. “It’s such an over-promise/under-deliver situation. If hosts were aware of the situation, they could take out additional insurance for these types of catastrophic situations.”

       1. So for people who are thinking of being a host, look into all the insurance you could buy all of it.

          Right now in California. Telling them you’re running an Airbnb. HA HA HA HA HA.

          1. Die, speculator scum. Houses are for living in, not speculative investments.

          2. Insurance is expensive enough. Try getting coverage for house party rentals in an overpriced market. That will be $30K/yr.

             1. So there are reasons why hotels are expensive.

15. were they to stay in China, that country does not have a social security program.

    Go China!

    1. China does have a social insurance system. It is weak and ineffective for many, but it exists. The public sector has a relatively generous system and, coupled with zero property taxes, many retirees in their late 50s collect money and have limited expenses leading to a relatively high quality of life. Just like with FICA, money is taken from each paycheck to pay into the scheme.

       One caveat which is absurd — your payments go to where you work, but your benefits are tied to your local district where you were registered at birth. So if you were born in Hubei but worked in Hangzhou you will get nothing in terms of old-age medical assistance. It is costly to change this, and many municipalities, such as Shanghai, have extreme restrictions to gaining local residency. These large cities benefit greatly from inflows of migrant labor. The migrants pay into local taxes but do not get long-term social insurance benefits. It’s glorious for the cities — cheap labor and limited long-term liabilities.

       On the other side of the coin, the earning power of a migrant in these cities is high when you take into account dormitory living and subsidized food. The smart ones save 90% of their earnings, work for a decade, then return to the countryside where they can easily build a giant house for the extended family and survive off savings and meager local earnings.

       https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-social-security-system-explainer/

       1. One caveat which is absurd — your payments go to where you work, but your benefits are tied to your local district where you were registered at birth.

          Sounds like a great CCP scam. We confiscate a chunk of your paycheck, but you get no benefit later. Since China is turning gray and fast, I can see why there is no incentive for the CCP to change that.

          1. Sounds like a great CCP scam. We confiscate a chunk of your paycheck, but you get no benefit later. Since China is turning gray and fast, I can see why there is no incentive for the CCP to change that.

             And as I pointed out, the migrants still can come out ahead in this. They own their ancestral land (granted after the revolution), and it is cheap to build a 6+ story home if you know how to work with your hands and how to source materials. They can be built in stages, story by story.

             Frankly, the people with the worst outcomes are professionals that move to a different city for work. Those jobs often do not have subsidized housing and food, and due to local registration restrictions it can be hard to transfer your residency. This leads to the absurdity of Chinese buying properties in cities where they do not live and then keeping it a concrete shell until it is ready to move into, which could be decades away.

             It’s all one giant mess, but rest assured, the Party did the right thing and it’s probably the fault of the foreigners. /sarc

16. Did you decide to cancel your bet that Treasurys will keep on CR8Ring after a 50% CR8R over two years?

    1. Financial Times
       US Treasury bonds
       US Treasury yields fall from 16-year high as Bill Ackman ditches bearish bet
       10-year benchmark borrowing cost climbed above 5% for first time since 2007 before retreating
       Montage of the New York skyline and a chart
       Yields on longer-dated Treasury bonds have moved higher since the Fed indicated that officials were expecting a slower path towards interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025
       Kate Duguid in New York and Mary McDougall in London 43 minutes ago

       The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to more than 5 per cent for the first time in 16 years on Monday before falling back, as the sharp swings in global bond markets continued.

       The 10-year yield, the benchmark for asset prices across the globe, rose early on Monday to a peak of 5.02 per cent, its highest level since July 2007, extending a multi-week rout in bond prices as investors bet that the US Federal Reserve would keep interest rates at their current high levels for longer.

       Yields later fell back to 4.87 per cent, extending their decline after billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he was ditching his bearish bet on long-term Treasuries.

       “There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates,” Ackman posted on X, formerly Twitter, arguing that growth in the US was weaker than the mainstream data suggests. The hedge fund manager first disclosed his short position in 30-year Treasuries in August, adding to the pressure on bond markets. The 30-year US yield fell to 5.01 per cent, having earlier touched a high of 5.18 per cent.
       …

17. Peter Schiff: This Is The Most Obvious Financial Crisis That Nobody Sees Coming

    https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/peter-schiff-this-is-the-most-obvious-financial-crisis-that-nobody-sees-coming/

    The mainstream continues to insist that the economy is fine. Inflation is beat. A soft landing is in play. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff said we’re in the early stages of a financial crisis. It should be obvious, but very few people see it coming.

    Peter emphasized that we are already in the midst of a financial crisis.

    Now, this is, of course, the early stages of that financial crisis. It is unfolding before your eyes if you’re awake or smart enough to recognize what you see. But it is going to get a lot worse.”

    Peter said that at some point, people are going to recognize that we’re in a financial crisis, but they’re not going to realize why.

    They’re all going to be just as blindsided by this financial crisis as they were by the much smaller financial crisis in 2008 that also took them by complete surprise.”

    During the 2008 meltdown, the mainstream described it as a “100-year flood” — a “black swan” that nobody could have foreseen.

    Which of course was a bunch of BS, because a number of people, myself included, not only saw it in advance, but spent years warning about it.”

    Peter said the evolution of this crisis is just as clear.

    This is the most obvious financial crisis that nobody sees coming. I mean, this isn’t even a black swan. This isn’t even a white swan. This is like a pigeon. They’re everywhere. This is a very common bird that is not coming out of left field. It’s right there. But Wall Street has a big vested interest in ignoring this. And so do a lot of people on Main Street, so does academia, the financial media, the government. Nobody wants to acknowledge this until of course it already happens. Then they have to figure out who the scapegoat is.”

    One thing is pretty certain. Nobody will blame the party most responsible – the government.

    They never look back and reflect on the government’s role in creating the crisis. No, no, no! They’re too busy pointing fingers at somebody in the private sector and holding out government as the salvation. ‘We just need more government! If we only had more regulations then this wouldn’t have happened.’ No. It happened because we had too many regulations. What we need is free market regulations.”

    Government regulations sabotage the free market regulations that actually do work.

    We can see the financial system unwinding in the bond market. Long-term bond yields continued to rise last week. Peter called the bond selloff “relentless.” On Friday, the yield on a 30-year Treasury rose above 5.1%. The yield on the 10-year also briefly eclipsed 5%.

    The yield curve is basically flat around 5%, but Peter said it isn’t going to stay flat.

    It’s going to steepen. I expect long-term interest rates to continue the March upward, and we should put more distance between a 90-day, 6-month bill and a 10 to 30-year Treasury bond, especially the 30-year bond. That one is going to take the biggest hit.”

    Peter said as the curve normalizes, the short end could rise toward 6% with the long end pushing into the 7 or 8 percent range – minimum.

    The question is will the Federal Reserve allow it?

    Will the financial markets, will the banking sector, will the economy, will the government be able to withstand that increase? So far, it seems like, OK, we’re surviving 5%. Although, I don’t really think we are. I think the numbers belly the problems that underlie the economy.”

    For instance, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell for the 16th straight month in September, dropping another 0.7%. The Conference Board also revised the August number lower.

    That’s pretty rare. You have to go back to 2007-2008, which was the Great Recession — the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. You’ve got to go back there to find a string of negative leading economic indicators that’s longer than the 16 months we’ve got now.”

    This indicates that the economy is a lot weaker than the “experts” keep telling us.

    If the economy is so strong, how can these ‘leading’ economic indicators be so weak?

    Meanwhile, we have record credit card debt along with record credit card interest rates. The “unsinkable” American consumer is drowning in debt. Financial sector stocks are getting beaten up. American Express was down 5.4%. Peter pointed out that these banks and financial companies are just reporting the early stages of problems.

    But anybody who was loaning out money during the bubble is going to have a problem getting the money back as the bubble deflates, so, this is just the tip of a big iceberg for American Express, Visa, Mastercard, Discover, all these credit card companies.”

    And if consumers can’t borrow — they can’t buy.

    There are also continuing signs of stress in the banking sector. Banks continue to tap into the bailout program set up after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. There is also growing concern about pressure in the banking system created by the commercial real estate market.

    Things are still simmering under the surface, but it’s only a matter of time before the situation erupts.

    In this podcast, Peter also talked about Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club. He said Powell isn’t qualified to be a member.

    1. “if consumers can’t borrow — they can’t buy”

       Where is the concept of a job and a paycheck missing from this statement?

       1. a job and a paycheck

          Only “loosers” work for a living, Winnahs are members of the passive income class. It works great, until it doesn’t.

    2. the numbers belly the problems

       I think he means “belie”.

    3. “This is the most obvious financial crisis that nobody sees coming. I mean, this isn’t even a black swan.”

       All swans look black if yer head is up yer a$$.

    4. “The yield curve is basically flat around 5%, but Peter said it isn’t going to stay flat.

       It’s going to steepen.”

       I smell BS. If you believe what happened to the yield curve since early 2022 wasn’t a historic bear steepening event, then I have some land in Florida that I would like you to consider buying.

    5. “He said Powell isn’t qualified to be a member.”

       LOL! Is Peter campaigning for Fed chair?

18. – While checking all of the housing metrics for affordability, please don’t forget the “Buy vs. Rent” calculation. This is huge right now.

    https://nypost.com/2023/10/23/it-now-costs-52-more-to-buy-a-home-than-rent-one-report/
    It now costs 52% more to buy a home than rent one: ‘Never been a worse time’
    By Shannon Thaler
    Published Oct. 23, 2023, 10:38 a.m. ET

    “The average monthly mortgage payment is a whopping 52% higher than the average monthly rent on a house or apartment — a ratio that hasn’t been this out of whack since before the 2008 housing crash, according to The Wall Street Journal.”

    “The last time the cost of buying a home versus renting one was this extreme was in 1996, The Journal reported, headlining its article “There’s never been a worse time to buy instead of rent,” citing data from commercial real estate firm CBRE.”

    “Historically, monthly mortgage rates have cost the same or less than monthly rent payments on an apartment — which had been the case from 1996 to mid-2003 — since owners tend to put more cash into their homes than tenants because of expenses like repairs and renovations, per The Journal.”

    “In the lead up to the ’08 market crash, the mortgage premiums peaked at 33% in the second quarter of 2006.”

    \\

    – Example AZ calculation here. This Tweet is from July, ’23, when 30 yr. fixed rate mortgage rate was approx. 7%. Now approx. 8%. Also, when renting, DON’T FORGET the 20% down payment invested in the risk-free return of 3-6 m.o. U.S. Treas. bills. at 5+%/yr. That’s also huge, and offset’s your rent by same amount as annual interest payment.

    \\

    https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1683510072805318656
    Darth Powell @GRomePow

    Here’s the math on my rental: [Buy vs. Rent calc.]

    Rental payment: $1900/mo

    $100,000 down [20% down] payment is earning $400/mo [*]
    [* 5% 3-6 mo. U.S. Treasury bills: $100,000*5%=$5,000/yr., $416.67/mo.]
    Effective rent: $1,500

    Mortgage payment PITI $3,728 [$500,000 purchase price; PITI + HOA fees, no maintenance or repair costs]

    Renting is saving $2,228/mo with no maintenance [$1,500 rent / $3,728 total house payment = 40.23%]
    [$3,728 /mo. = $2,661 Principal & Interest (P&I) + $521 Taxes (T) + $146 Insurance (I) + $400 HOA]

    10:10 AM · Jul 24, 2023 · 10.4K Views

    – Before you buy, do the math. This math isn’t hard, and there are online calculators available as well.

    – Executive summary: Right now it’s NOT a good time to buy in many / most MSAs (markets).

    – Get a hobby, some popcorn, and tune in from time-to-time as the slow-motion train wreck of the Central Bank enabled global housing bubble bursts. No one could have seen this coming. Happy Monday! 🙂

    1. – Additional reference to the same WSJ article (firewalled). Nice chart here from John Wake.

       \\

       https://twitter.com/JohnWake/status/1716483378210623591
       John Wake @JohnWake

       https://www.chartr.co/newsletters/2023-10-23
       Buy vs. rent: The latest data makes a clear case.
       [See chart]

       9:55 AM · Oct 23, 2023 · 2,278 Views

       – “Houston [insert the name of almost any MSA here, excluding the four exceptions, where no one wants to live, BTW], we have a problem.“

       – The Fed’s main function appears to be to generate generally severe unintended (?) economic consequences. Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius. Unelected and unaccountable.

    2. “It now costs 52% more to buy a home than rent one: ‘Never been a worse time’”

       – Referring to home buying, and quoting a famous housing bubble blogger:

       “Well, it was cheaper than renting.”

       – Oh, wait a minute… 🙂

       – Let’s see now, are these still working?:
       “It’s always a good time to buy.” (No)
       “Always be closing.” (No)
       “Marry the house, date the rate.” (No)
       “It was cheaper than renting.” (No)
       “Real estate always goes up.” (No)

       – The narratives are somehow inexplicably different now in the absence of free $ from the gooberment. It’s a conundrum. MMT not working? Oh, snap!

    3. please don’t forget the “Buy vs. Rent” calculation

       I don’t remember if that calculator included a factor for house prices falling 75%.

       1. No way.

          And in case I am wrong, I humbly apologize.

19. Swiss Election Result SMASHES European Establishment
    Michael Heaver
    22 minutes ago

    “Swiss turn to right at election as immigration fears weigh” Reuters

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9_PGCNzl8Q

    2:32.

    1. All over Europe, red-pilled voters are turning on their globalist Quisling overlords.

20. RBA rolls out new tools, called rate hikes, to combat obesity.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/eat/foodbank-reveals-australias-growing-food-insecurity-crisis/news-story/35f96fb5257178c3d7083a5570040d64

    1. The report goes on to state by the end of the year, a full half of the country could experience “some level of difficulty” in accessing enough food.

       How the mighty have fallen.

       1. Australians willingly gave up their guns 2+ decades ago, and they elected the government that built concentration camps for them during CCP Flu.

          Created as a prison island, always a prison island.

21. ‘Thompson knew $575,000 was below market value, but says she figured it was worth the trade-off of getting cash fast, without the hassle of numerous open houses’

    This is a form of what’s called wholesaling. In the foreclosure world you have people who hustle a listing from an FB. Then they take it to a money guy for a cut. I think in this case there was no money guy, just selling it after they tie the shack up in a contract. I get these in emails and even went to look at one. I don’t get it: yer going to do better on the MLS than some half-a$$ marketing from what looks to me like crooks/unnecessary middlemen. And it usually has to be all cash, I suppose cuz the seller is in a pinch. Basically, this is something a dumb person would do. The K-dn article has pundits saying, well it’s legal, but…

    1. She could have received free counseling right here, all she had to do was ask! 🙂

22. Innisfil Real Estate Sales Plummet: A 50% Decline Revealed
    Mark Turcotte
    1 hour ago

    In this captivating video, we delve into the latest shocking news about Innisfil’s real estate market. Witness the unprecedented decline as we uncover the surprising truth of a staggering 50% plummet in property sales. Brace yourself for a comprehensive analysis that explores the possible causes behind this drastic downfall. Is the economic instability to blame? Or perhaps external factors have come into play?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8xg4sSCgnc

    11 minutes.

    1. perhaps external factors have come into play?

       They don’t seem able to say it out loud.

23. Oh Dear

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-recession-is-about-to-hit-the-us-economy-here-are-3-warning-signs-that-defy-consensus-view-according-to-raymond-james/ar-AA1iHG2Z

    1. Always remember: A closely-watched pot never boils over.

       Chinese economy excepted…

       1. Yahoo Finance

          Bloomberg
          Bill Gross Sees a Recession By Year End
          Susanne Barton
          October 23, 2023, 8:49 am

          (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross says he’s buying futures tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and sees a recession in the fourth quarter.
          …
          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gross-sees-recession-end-154953566.html

       2. Stock Market Today
          Dow Jones Futures: Market Correction Worsens; Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft To Report
          SCOTT LEHTONEN 04:55 PM ET 10/23/2023

          Dow Jones futures were little changed ahead of Tuesday’s open, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, in overnight trade. The stock market correction deepened Monday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 200 points.
          …
          https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-correction-worsens-amazon-alphabet-meta-microsoft-to-report/

       3. Country Garden Holdings’ logo on top of a building in Zhenjiang, in eastern Jiangsu province. The debt-saddled Chinese property giant has said it does not expect to meet all its offshore payment obligations in time as it battles to avoid default.
          Photo: AFP

          Opinion
          China’s economy is bottoming out, but that’s no reason to cheer
          – Despite encouraging third-quarter economic data, it is preposterous to expect any kind of meaningful recovery when the property sector is crumbling
          – The economy is likely to continue bumping along the floor until new growth drivers offset the drag from the downturn in real estate and related industries
          Topic | China property
          Nicholas Spiro
          Published: 3:30pm, 23 Oct, 2023
          …
          https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3238846/chinas-economy-bottoming-out-thats-no-reason-cheer

24. LehighValleyGuy,
    Your post above on capitalism is spot on IMHO.
    They rigged it so capital would have more power than labor. In theory it should of been more balanced. It was more balanced when I was young and that is why
    a big middle class formed here in
    US. Labor got a fair shake, I witnessed it. They slowly corrupted that balance and government kept messing things up.
    Now you have Monopoly wealth literally trying to turn us into enslaved drones with no rights.

    1. +1

       Most of my friends growing up had only the father working full time outside the home, could afford a decent house, wife could raise the kids when they were little then get a part time job or not need to work.

       1945 after the war to the early mid 1970s was the last period of real shared prosperity in the U.S.

       1. Same here. Those were the halcyon days for sure, and most people I knew back then spent their time complaining and pissing away their health and wealth.

25. (What color is your pill?)

    Trust In Mass Media Craters To Record Low As Americans ‘Wake-Up’ From Matrix

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trust-mass-media-craters-americans-wake-matrix

    Americans’ confidence that mass media – such as newspapers, TV, and radio – will report the news fairly and balanced plummeted to historic lows not seen since 2016, according to the latest annual Gallup survey of trust in US institutions.

    Gallup survey from Sept. 1-23 reveals:

    29% of US adults have “not very much” trust in the media.

    A record-high 39% of US adults have “none at all” trust in the media.

    The current 39% with no trust is the highest on record, surpassing the previous by one percentage point. This percentage is 12 points higher than the 2016 reading.

    In 2016, sharp criticism of the media came from then-presidential candidate Donald Trump.

    The current view of the media is the grimmest in Gallup’s history.

    In 2016, the most common sentiment among US adults was “not very much” trust at 41%.

    A half-century of Gallup data shows Americans’ trust in the media has rapidly declined.

    (There is a chart located here …)

    There is a massive political gap in the trust of corporate media. About 58% of Democrats trust the media, while only 11% of Republicans feel the same.

    (Another chart is located here …)

    “This low confidence reading for the fourth estate comes at a time when trust in each of the three branches of the federal government is also low,” Gallup pointed out.

    In June, Gallup survey data for trust in TV news and newspapers also slid to a near-record low, as well as a survey last December that found record-low-tying ratings of the honesty and ethics of journalists.

    Souring distaste for mass media reflects that Americans are learning their news flow has been manipulated by the censorship-industrial complex, which is run by political and technological elites.

    The Twitter Files, state attorneys general lawsuits, and investigative reporters have revealed the expanding network of government agencies, academic institutions, and nongovernmental organizations that actively censor citizens for talking about non-approved government narratives, such as Covid, vaccines and Hunter Biden’s business deals. These elites use corporate media to twist the truth and keep the masses locked in the ‘matrix.’

    These Six Companies Control Much of US Media

    (Chart …)

    However, the days of censorship in mass media are limited. The emergence of the parallel economy is fostering new capital that is seeding new media ventures, such as the Tucker Carlson on X. The success already on X has CNN and even Fox News envying Carlon’s views in the hundreds of millions.

26. R u wishing you hadn’t stayed long in Musk HODLings this year?

    1. Fortune
       Elon Musk lost a fortune on Tesla’s earnings, but ARK’s Cathie Wood says the ‘intensity of his brain cells’ takes him to new levels when facing hardship
       Eleanor Pringle
       Mon, October 23, 2023 at 4:38 AM PDT·3 min read
       In this article:

       Patrick T. Fallon—AFP/Getty Images
       October hasn’t gone swimmingly for Elon Musk and Tesla. In fact, last week the company charted its worst performance on Wall Street this year.

       But according to legendary investor Cathie Wood that’s precisely why the company will endure: When faced with tough times, its CEO, Musk, comes back swinging.

       Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, has remained a backer of EV maker Tesla where other investors have lost faith: The auto manufacturer is still ARK’s biggest holding.

       Wood justifies her support of Musk on account of his “troubleshooting” abilities, and dismissed fears that the richest man on earth is spreading himself too thin.

       Musk, who purchased social media platform X—formerly known as Twitter—for $44 billion in October last year, has concerned some Tesla investors who feared his attention has been overly drawn to the site.

       Wood acknowledged that X was facing challenges, potentially drawing Musk’s focus on occasion, but insisted it was no cause for concern.

       “Elon is a troubleshooter,” Wood told CNBC’s ETF Edge last week. “The troubles at X are not over yet…These difficult times, though, spur Elon’s creativity. He is a troubleshooter and a brilliant technologist.”
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-lost-fortune-tesla-113844160.html

    2. Elon Musk says feds issued subpoenas over Tesla Autopilot crash probe
       By Reuters
       Published Oct. 23, 2023, 12:30 p.m. ET

       The Justice Department has sought documents and issued subpoenas to Tesla as it scrutinizes the automaker’s driver assistance system Autopilot and vehicle driving range, among other issues, the company said Monday.

       Tesla said in a regulatory filing it has received requests for information “including subpoenas, from the DOJ.
       …
       https://nypost.com/2023/10/23/business/elon-musk-says-feds-issued-subpoenas-over-tesla-autopilot-probe/

    3. How Elon Musk Tanked Twitter’s Value In One Year — Now Wall Street Wants to Know What X Is Really Worth
       The SEC sued Musk on Thursday for failing to comply with a subpoena in an investigation looking into his statements about Twitter’s purchase
       Published 10/05/23 12:58 PM ET|Updated 10/06/23 06:20 PM ET
       Richard Teitelbaum
       …
       https://themessenger.com/business/elon-musk-twitter-x-value-wall-street-valuation-banks

       1. Amazing how the DOJ gets involved when one stops being PC.

27. leading to an unreasonable decrease in selling prices

    LOLOLOL. Just guessing that this guy wasn’t calling it an “unreasonable increase” when prices were going parabolic!

28. $1.65 million . . . $1.77 million . . . $2 million . . . $1.3 million . . . $890,000 . . . $1.58 million . . . These days the word million gets bandied about like peanuts.

    And it has been made possible by the magic of fiat (legalized counterfeit) currency. To paraphrase Yogi Berra, a dollar isn’t worth a dime any more or as Jed Clampett had said he has sold his swamp for just 25 new kind of dollars called million dollars . . .

    1. These days the word million gets bandied about like peanuts.

       More like years in California.

29. Are you missing out on the bond rally?

    1. MarketWatch
       The Tell
       Bond ETFs see ‘crescendo’ of investor demand after yield surge in volatile fixed-income market, says Invesco’s Paglia
       Published: Oct. 23, 2023 at 4:25 p.m. ET
       By Christine Idzelis
       It’s not just ordinary individual investors turning to exchange-traded funds to manage their bond holdings, says Invesco’s global head of ETFs
       Surging yields are attracting investors to the fixed-income market — but the rapid rise in interest rates has also spelled trouble for the bond market broadly. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

       Heightened bond-market volatility has accelerated a “crescendo” of demand from large, sophisticated investors for exchange-traded funds focused on fixed income, according to Invesco’s Anna Paglia.

       Beyond ordinary investors, large institutional investors’ interest in fixed-income ETFs has been picking up in the past couple months as Wall Street seeks to trade around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and a spike in bond yields, said Paglia, Invesco’s global head of ETFs and indexed strategies, during an interview on Monday.
       …

       1. That article is a refreshing break for MarketWatch from stocks only, all the time.

    2. Yahoo
       Reuters
       Vanguard bets on long-term US Treasuries after ‘cruel summer’ for bond investors
       Davide Barbuscia
       Mon, October 23, 2023 at 9:14 AM PDT·2 min read
       FILE PHOTO: The logo for Vanguard is displayed on a screen on the floor of the NYSE in New York
       By Davide Barbuscia

       NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. asset manager Vanguard is bullish on longer-dated Treasuries after this year’s brutal selloff, betting that the Federal Reserve is at the end of its rate hiking cycle and that the economy will slow next year.

       Despite a “cruel summer for bond investors,” long-term bonds continue to remain attractive as the economy will likely enter a shallow recession next year, the world’s second-largest asset manager said in a fixed income outlook seen by Reuters.

       U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, have risen sharply over the past few months, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields trading above 5% on Monday for the first time since 2007.

       An economic slowdown, in theory, would force the Fed to cut borrowing costs, pushing down prices of shorter-dated Treasuries as they are more sensitive to interest rates and heightening the appeal of longer-dated bonds.

       “The relative advantage short-term government bonds have can fade quickly, and investors can fare better when they lock in higher rates for longer,” Vanguard said.

       Vanguard’s call comes as another big investor, Pershing Square Capital Management’s Bill Ackman, said on Monday that he covered his bet against longer-term bonds, saying it was too risky to remain short bonds at current long-term rates.

       Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates to boost an economy hit by much higher borrowing costs have been pushed out several times this year, as economic activity has remained surprisingly resilient to the interest rate hikes delivered so far by the U.S. central bank as it seeks to curb inflation.

       Vanguard said it expects interest rates will not be cut until at least mid-2024, and that bond yields will not return to the low levels that characterized the U.S. bond market in recent history.

       But Vanguard said it also believes the Fed is at or near the end of its hiking cycle, which makes long-term bonds attractive both for their high yields and for the potential of capital appreciation in case of an economic slowdown.

       “We believe we are in a new era for fixed income in which bonds offer significantly more value – both in total returns and as better ballast within an overall portfolio,” Vanguard said.
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-bets-long-term-us-161423832.html

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