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A Rush Of Units Hitting The Market As Owners Try To Get Out Of Pricey Investments That Seem Destined To Plummet In Value

A report from the Real Deal on Texas. “While Austin’s average sale price remains well above historical levels — the median price is 44 percent higher than it was five years ago — recent months have seen a marked slowdown in sales volume and price. In October, the median home price in the Austin-Round Rock area fell 7.5 percent to $435,000, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. Homes spent 68 days on the market on average, up 21 days from October 2022. ‘Buyers have more negotiating power than at virtually any point since March 2020,’ said Clare Losey, a housing economist for the Austin Board of Realtors.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “Median downtown condo prices are the lowest they’ve been since 2014, according to Compass data. Crescent, a luxury building in Nob Hill that also started selling its units in early 2021, has only sold 14. San Francisco’s Four Seasons Private Residences at 706 Mission St. may be the epitome of the struggling condo market. The ultraluxury building (units start at $2.3 million) has sold just 14 of the 146 available units since June 2019. One Steuart Lane, a 20-story building that also boasts sweeping bay views from its location just off the Embarcadero, is more than 50% vacant, with 43 of 120 total units sold since it began sales in February 2020, according to Compass data. A pop-up on its website currently advertises ‘fall price reductions’ of ‘$300,000 to over $1 million on select homes.'”

“‘Pretty much everyone is offering something, whether they’re advertising it or not,’ said Paul Zeger, CEO of Polaris Pacific, which represents many high-end condo buildings in San Francisco, including One Steuart Lane, Crescent and the Four Seasons Residences. Unadvertised incentives might include the developer covering the costs of HOA dues for a buyer for two years or reimbursing them for closing costs.”

The Sun Journal in North Carolina. “When it comes to selling a house, the facts of the data must match what you are selling. The local real estate market is still good, as Craven County has 193 properties under contract. However, pricing is becoming more crucial as sellers should be pricing their homes for the market of the moment and not the market of six months ago. We saw October 2023 have the lowest list price-to-sale ratio of any time in the past few years at 97.4%. This means sellers are starting to have to negotiate, which is just a sign of the market normalizing.”

“As the inventory of homes increases for buyers to choose from, since we now have 375 homes on the market in Craven County, sellers need to ensure the house feels right to attract buyers when they walk in the door. Gone are the days when sellers could expect to put any house on the market and sell it in a few hours for more than they are asking. Buyers expect homes to be clean and well-kept, smell good, and have some updates.”

11 Alive in Georgia. “An HOA treasurer facing charges after authorities found ‘financial irregularities’ dealing with Camelot Condominiums has turned themselves in, according to police. City of South Fulton Chief Keith Meadows said the treasurer, Lyndon Baldwin Sr., surrendered Monday. Baldwin and the HOA president, Bettye Ligon, face theft by conversion and theft by taking charges. 11Alive learned last week that Ligon had already turned herself in. Meadows said an initial building fire in 2020 caused insurance companies to give the HOA board a $250,000 check. A second fire destroyed the building, and HOA received a $1.5 million check to compensate residents. Financial irregularities were found when police looked into the account where the funds were stored.”

“In an update Monday, officers said they believe there is at least a dozen homeowners who haven’t received anything from the HOA. ‘I’m angry. I’m mad as h-e-l-l, you know? Honestly, I’m trying to smile through all the confusion,’ Perfect Love said. She owns about 40 units at the condo complex with her husband, including one destroyed in the 2020 fire. Love had a message for the HOA treasurer as her life remains in limbo. ‘How can you guys sit there and know that you guys victimized us? Us, as in all the homeowners, from what we are and what we invested our life savings in?’ she asked.”

Bisnow New York. “While most of the recent headlines around commercial real estate have focused on distress in the office market, another crisis has been slowly brewing for the owners of the million rent-stabilized apartments across New York City. The strain of a restricted rent roll that isn’t keeping pace with increased costs is beginning to show. Delinquency rates for loans backed by rent-stabilized buildings are on the rise, some rent-stabilized portfolios have traded for huge discounts, and others have faced foreclosures. As more loans mature in the coming months and landlord costs keep rising, multifamily market insiders say the worst is yet to come.”

“‘It’s going to be a bloodbath,’ said Ofer Cohen, founder and president of Brooklyn brokerage TerraCRG. ‘I’m telling you right now: It’s going to be bad.’ Roughly 10% to 15% of loans on New York’s 1.04 million rent-stabilized multifamily units are expected to come due in the near future, Cohen said, adding that the wave of distress headed for NYC’s multifamily market could be far greater than the distress predicted to hit the office market. ‘It’s going to be much worse,’ he said. ‘There are significantly more rent-stabilized buildings in New York City than office buildings.'”

“The current environment has already led some larger owners to sell. In April Taconic Partners and Clarion Partners took a 40% hit on the price they paid for a 14-building portfolio in the Bronx in 2018, recouping just $60M from the sale, The Real Deal reported at the time. ‘The people who are selling now, I think, are the ones who are just trying to escape,’ said Jay Martin, president of landlord lobbying group Community Housing Improvement Program. ‘Their [net operating income] is just too close to the bone. They’re not making enough monthly on the rent rolls. I would say over the last year or so the banks have started getting much less patient with owners on payments for mortgages.'”

From Ricochet Media on Canada. “The open house is all set up, but nobody’s coming. There’s plenty of foot traffic outside, but those are mostly Airbnb guests, wheeling bags in and out of the building, and they’re not here to buy a home — just to occupy one for a few days while they still can. In October, the B.C. government announced a ban on short-term rentals that are not in the owner’s principal residence. The ban includes units like this one in downtown Victoria — condos that were previously grandfathered-in despite a ban introduced by the city in 2018. Now the clock is ticking down to May, when these condos’ ability to earn money as short-term rentals will evaporate. That’s leading to a rush of units hitting the market as owners try to get out of pricey investments that seem destined to plummet in value.”

“So far, listing prices haven’t reflected this new reality. Hence the empty open house. ‘I think a lot of these owners are still in denial,’ says real estate broker Dustin Miller. Not all, though. Miller started hearing from some Airbnb owners within minutes of the government’s announcement that it would severely restrict short-term rentals. ‘One of them decided to list right away — like, ‘Let’s get ahead of this, let’s sell,’ he recalls. The result of the glut of listings, the increased cost of borrowing, and the high prices is that nothing is moving. Looking at October data from downtown Victoria, where the vast majority of the region’s short-term rentals are located, the numbers are staggering. In a month when 172 condos were up for sale downtown, only 16 were sold.”

“Miller suspects buyers are waiting for the bottom of the market, which he imagines to be more than $100,000 lower for most condos than the prices for which they’re currently listed. ‘We haven’t had an October this slow in a long time,’ he says. ‘Everybody can feel the market suddenly decline, and they’re going to wait to see it fall more.'”

The Belfast Telegraph. “The latest Ulster University house price survey however says ‘there are signals of weakening demand however with noticeable reductions in new listings and buyer enquires as consumer confidence wanes and potential buyers hit the pause button to see where interests go over the next few quarters.’ It says mortgage approval rates were down 30% in September. there’s disparity across Northern Ireland as to where prices are rising. Lisburn and Castlereagh saw the largest rise of 6.2%, followed by Mid Ulster on 3.4%. However, there were substantial falls elsewhere. Prices dropped 12.1% in Fermanagh and Omagh, 12% in Causeway Coast and Glens and 11.8% in Derry and Strabane.”

From Africa News. “The upward trend seen in the German construction sector in 2020 and 2021 came to a shuddering halt in 2022. Germany’s residential construction sector has taken a hit recently, with new orders being considerably slower and existing orders being cancelled much more frequently. Moreover, new orders were down for the twentieth consecutive month in October 2023. Dr. Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at the IFO Center noted: ‘It’s getting worse all the time, with more and more projects failing due to higher interest rates and elevated construction prices.’ Rapidly rising land prices have further choked the housing sector, with land prices for development having risen as much as 160% in major German cities since 2010.”

Domain News in Australia. “Home owners in Melbourne’s outer northern and western suburbs have been hit hardest by the weight of rising interest rates, as mortgage stress levels rise across the city. Pockets of the inner city dotted with first-time buyers who purchased apartments are also bearing the brunt. Across the city, an average of eight out of every 1000 Melburnians – or 0.81 per cent – are at least a month behind on their mortgages, data from credit bureau illion for July shows. In the Collins Street West precinct of Docklands, 25 out of 1000 people – or 2.5 per cent – were behind. The west made up 12 of the top 20 suburbs with borrowers in arrears, in first home-buyer areas such as Melton, Sunshine North, Plumpton and St Albans. Pockets of Carlton were also in stress, as were the outer northern suburbs of Dallas, Coolaroo and Meadow Heights.”

“Home owners are already trying to ease the financial burden. In the western suburbs, people were already turning off their heaters to reduce their energy bills, Red Maple Finance director and mortgage broker Nariman Amalsadiwala said. ‘People are worried about interest rate rises,’ Amalsadiwala said. ‘There is stress around and people are at the point of ‘how much more can we take?’ Some had been forced to list their homes for sale, while others were now looking to sell their investment properties. People who had borrowed more than 80 per cent of the value of their home were finding it hard to refinance, he said. ‘They borrowed when rates were 2 per cent, and they’re now 6 per cent,’ Amalsadiwala said. ‘They don’t have much equity built because market values are depressed, so it’s a double whammy.'”

“Barry Plant Yarra’s Edge branch manager Geoff White said forced sales by the banks remained limited in Docklands, but noted distressed sales appeared to be on the rise, particularly among investors, who were seeing costs climb on multiple fronts. Few would confess to their agent that they were in financial stress, White said, but the number of properties being sold with outstanding council rates and owners corporation fees was rising. ‘We have seen the levels of arrears creep up a bit,’ he said. ‘That sends us a message that perhaps these people are wanting to sell, not just for the reason of cashing in, but because they may need to sell to stay one step ahead of the bank.'”

South China Morning Post. “Home prices in major Chinese cities fell for the fourth straight month in October, recording the steepest drop in nearly nine years, as demand continues to slump despite measures to support the market. Fifty-six of the cities tracked saw prices of new homes fall last month, two more than in September, while prices of lived-in homes fell in 67 cities. ‘The lacklustre home price data reflects a fluctuating home market, but it was also a result of big discounts given by developers and local governments,’ said Yan Yuejin, director of Shanghai-based E-house China Research and Development Institute.”

“‘There remain many twists and turns in the recovery of the housing market,’ said Zhang Bo, chief analyst at 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute in Shanghai. Tier 1 cities continue to underperform, as the supportive measures launched in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are not strong enough, Zhang added.”

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This Post Has 66 Comments

  1. ‘I’m angry. I’m mad as h-e-l-l, you know? Honestly, I’m trying to smile through all the confusion,’ Perfect Love said. She owns about 40 units at the condo complex with her husband, including one destroyed in the 2020 fire. Love had a message for the HOA treasurer as her life remains in limbo. ‘How can you guys sit there and know that you guys victimized us? Us, as in all the homeowners, from what we are and what we invested our life savings in?’

    Perfect Love is in limbo?

    ‘The people who are selling now, I think, are the ones who are just trying to escape,’ said Jay Martin, president of landlord lobbying group Community Housing Improvement Program. ‘Their [net operating income] is just too close to the bone. They’re not making enough monthly on the rent rolls’

    Escape from New York. I’ve heard that before somewhere.

    1. Love had a message for the HOA treasurer as her life remains in limbo. ‘How can you guys sit there and know that you guys victimized us?

      Deep down, they must feel really bad about themselves, Perfect Love.

  2. ‘I think a lot of these owners are still in denial,’ says real estate broker Dustin Miller. Not all, though. Miller started hearing from some Airbnb owners within minutes of the government’s announcement that it would severely restrict short-term rentals. ‘One of them decided to list right away — like, ‘Let’s get ahead of this, let’s sell,’ he recalls’

    So just like that Dustin, yer giving it away?

    1. I’m not sure these AirBnBs would survive those mortgage interest hikes anyway. There’s no such thing as a fixed* mortgage in Canada.

      ————–
      *for the life of the loan

  4. Another insurrection in D.C. last night, violent pro-Palestine mobs attacking the DNC headquarters and fighting with Capitol Police.

    No January 6th gulag for them, because reasons.

    “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

    1. “All insurrections are equal, but some insurrections are more equal than others.” — DoJ & FBI

    2. The First
      @TheFirstonTV

      *BREAKING: Pro-Hamas Protesters Break into the DNC HQ in DC*

      A little different than the pro-Israel march from earlier this week…

      https://x.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1724969283506045174?s=20

      #StopCopCity
      @ChuckModi1

      “We are outside of DNC demanding they have a ceasefire for the ppl of Gaza & this is how they treat us?”

      Outside DNC 1.5 hours ago shortly after police attacked protesters
      #FreePalestine #AlShifaHospital

      https://x.com/ChuckModi1/status/1724975629743849829?s=20\

  5. “It’s the economy, stupid” — James Carville, 1992

    New York Times — Why Voters Aren’t Buying Biden’s Boasts About Bidenomics (11/16/2023):

    “As the White House touted U.S. prosperity, a New York Times-Siena College poll found that 59 percent of voters in six key swing states have more confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to manage the economy over Joe Biden’s, regardless of whom they think they’ll vote for. Zero — yes, zero — respondents under 30 in three of the swing states think of the economy as “excellent.”

    Zero? Is that not a lot?

    “The West Wing may believe Bidenomics is working because the macroeconomic gurus at the Federal Reserve are telling the White House it’s working. But Bidenomics has failed to create sufficient tangible improvement in the lives of most voters in a world in which groceries still cost more than they did a year ago, average rent and mortgage rates have spiked, and health and child care grow ever more unaffordable.

    For most Americans, a sense of financial well-being doesn’t come from capital returns in the stock market or even from house price appreciation. It comes in each paycheck and benefit payment, and is challenged by each bill and receipt from the supermarket. Paychecks are falling shorter and shorter for more and more households, no matter the seemingly record employment data the White House also likes to tout.

    These families are barely making it through the week, let alone accumulating the wealth essential for financial resilience and, over time, financial security. More middle-class households are worried about the economy now than they were a year ago, with 57 percent saying in a Harris Poll that higher borrowing costs are particularly problematic.

    The percentage of Americans who told the Federal Reserve they were worse off in 2022 than the previous year increased by 75 percent — to the highest level since the Fed started asking the question in 2014.”

    https://archive.li/5bSzY

    1. Dow Jones Futures Fall After Jobless Claims; Cisco, Walmart Dive On Earnings
      SCOTT LEHTONEN 09:18 AM ET 11/16/2023

      Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday morning after initial unemployment claims came in higher than expected. Meanwhile, Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Walmart (WMT) crumbled on disappointing earnings reports.

      The Labor Department said first-time jobless claims rose to 231,000 vs. 217,000 in the previous week. They were expected to climb to 222,000. Further, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly moved higher to -5.9 in November vs. October’s -9.0 reading. It was expected to edge lower to -11.0.

      Early Thursday, Cisco Systems plummeted 11% after reporting fiscal first-quarter earnings late Wednesday that topped estimates, though product orders fell again. The company’s outlook for CSCO stock in the current January-ending quarter came in well short of expectations.

      Meanwhile, Walmart plunged more than 6% after the company cautioned that consumer spending may be softening. Walmart did, however, beat third-quarter estimates, as earnings were $1.53 a share on sales of $160.8 billion. Analysts expected profits of $1.52 a share on revenue of $159.65 billion.

      Walmart’s plunge stands in sharp contrast to fellow big-box retailer Target (TGT) which soared nearly 18% Wednesday on its earnings news. Target was down 2.8% in premarket action Thursday.
      …
      https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-jobless-claims-cisco-walmart-dive-on-earnings/

      1. Looks like Target is recovering from its Pride Month debacle last June. It’s just too big and pervasive in American society for one department (clothing) to bring down the company. But come next June I think they’ll be more subtle.

    2. Forbes
      Money
      Markets
      Stock Market Exhibiting ‘Bull Trap’ Signs
      John S. Tobey
      Contributor
      Nov 12, 2023, 7:43pm EST
      Cartoon drawing or large bear about to eat small bull
      Bull traps lead to bear market losses
      getty

      The stock market’s rise looks reassuring and exciting. In only two weeks, it regained over one-half the ground lost in the three-month selloff. However, that observation contains the warning that another, deeper selloff leg could happen soon.

      First off, look at the stock market picture. The August-October selloff had many negative signs along the way. (See my previous write-ups for explanations.) Then came the last two weeks, with indicators that are likely false positives, as discussed below.
      Annotated graph shows 3-month selloff followed by 2-week rise
      Annotated graph shows 3-month selloff followed by 2-week rise
      S&P 500 daily moves from June through Nov. 10, [+]
      John Tobey (StockCharts.com)

      The problem is that the start of a new bull market takes time. Investor attitudes need to improve by “climbing a wall of worry.” It’s the false reversals that zip when a selloff pauses. Such reversals, if dramatic enough, can then develop into “bull traps.” These loss-causing actions result from enthusiastic, optimistic buying that goes awry when the selloffs suddenly return.

      Why “trap?” Because when the rise experiences the first downside reversal, it is seen as a new buying opportunity. Then, when the rise fails to resume, the realization comes that the old selloff has returned. Thus, the investors get trapped by the distressing choice of either selling now at a loss or holding on and risking losing more later.

      Note that human nature, once again, is behind the mistaken views and actions. The following descriptions explain bull trap and human nature’s role well…

      From an article in Finance Strategists (Sept. 7, 2023): “Bull Traps”

      “What is a bull trap?

      A Bull Trap is a false market signal indicating a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend in a financial asset’s price. This deceptive signal leads investors to buy, anticipating a market rise.

      However, the asset’s price declines soon after, trapping the bullish traders who bought in anticipation of growth that never materializes.
      …
      With today’s fast-paced, interconnected financial markets, the prevalence and impact of bull traps have increased due to rapid swings in investor sentiment.

      Role of Market Psychology in Creating Bull Traps

      Market psychology plays a central role in the formation of bull traps. Investors, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), may jump onto the perceived upward trend without adequately evaluating the market conditions.”
      …
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2023/11/12/stock-market-exhibiting-bull-trap-signs/?sh=111e67b11128

    4. Finance and economics | Doing your Sahms
      America may soon be in recession, according to a famous rule
      But is it right?
      The streets of downtown Los Angeles at dusk
      image: Getty Images
      Nov 14th 2023 | Washington, DC

      For financial markets the Holy Grail is a perfect leading indicator—a gauge that is both simple to monitor and consistently accurate in foretelling the future. In reality, such predictive perfection is unattainable. It is often hard enough to grasp what is happening in the present, let alone the future. A perfect real-time indicator would thus be a potent goblet of knowledge, if not quite the Holy Grail, for investors and analysts to drink from. Recently they have turned their attention towards one impressive candidate: the Sahm rule.

      Developed by Claudia Sahm, a former economist at the Federal Reserve, in 2019, the rule would have been capable of identifying every recession since 1960 in its early stages, with no false positives. This is no mean feat given that the body which officially declares whether the American economy is in recession sometimes needs a full year of data. The Sahm rule, by contrast, typically needs just a few months.
      …
      https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/11/14/america-may-soon-be-in-recession-according-to-a-famous-rule

  8. Washington Post — Liberals shouldn’t scoff at people’s fears of homelessness and crime (11/16/2023):

    “While I have doubts about their sincerity, conservative politicians are speaking directly to people’s anxieties over worsening conditions in urban America. When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis visited San Francisco in June, he angrily described a city in total collapse. “We saw people defecating on the street,” he said. “We saw people using heroin, we saw people smoking crack cocaine. The city is not vibrant anymore.”

    Debates rage over whether assessments such as these are fair or accurate. Conservatives’ claims about crime have been fact-checked and found to be somewhat misleading when the numbers are crunched, broken down, analyzed and put into proper context. But after spending time in July doing research in San Francisco’s Tenderloin District — the epicenter of the city’s homelessness crisis — I find such nitpicking almost entirely academic.

    Regardless of who’s exaggerating what and what the numbers technically do or do not show, city employees shoveled mounds of garbage off the sidewalks. Everything smelled like urine. Drug dealers operated in the open. And while I used to think that talk of “stepping over bodies” on the street was propagandistic exaggeration, I can report that I was indeed stepping over bodies.

    When I spoke with those living and working in the Tenderloin, no one implied this was an idyllic land of song and laughter, nor did they mock frustrations with the neighborhood’s deterioration. They were, for the most part, upset, agitated, fearful and sad.

    Many cities around the United States with significant homeless populations also have large numbers of low-income renters, people of color and immigrants. Because these groups are less likely to have resources to buy their way out of a troubled neighborhood, they end up being the people whose kids are harassed by people under the influence of drugs on the way to school, the ones whose doorsteps are defecated on and the ones whose sidewalks are made impassible by tents and trash. They are the ones whose stores close early to avoid being stolen from, and whose eateries move to the other side of town. To shrug this off, or to dismiss it as mere conservative propaganda, is profoundly unprogressive.”

    https://archive.li/2kSSY

    1. Sorry Democrats own the cities and what has occurred. It’s almost like a hands off approach has consequences. Woke f.ucking morons.

  10. RE: Owners Try To Get Out Of Pricey Investments That Seem Destined To Plummet In Value

    And what do the owners expect to happen to the buyers?
    Does anybody buy a house for the sole purpose of living in it any more?

    1. I see plenty of divisive “stories” in my news feed that attack: boomers Gen-X, Millennials, Gen-Z, Wypipo, Men, etc.

      What I never see are articles that attack violent vibrants. Never.

  11. The MSM has sure danced around this story of a white kid sticking up for a smaller kid who got ripped off by a gang and stuffed in a garbage can.

    As usual no need for a National conversation or talk of a hate crime here.

    8 teens arrested on murder charges in beating of Las Vegas high schooler

    14 hours ago

    https://youtu.be/a77WHtcU0gI?si=zQKdx4VEaNHxs1g1

    1. As opposed to the way this lead story on every nightly News broadcast was handled in August.

      White men charged with attacking Black man in Montgomery Riverfront brawl

      By Dan Rosenzweig-Ziff and Timothy Bella
      Published August 8, 2023 at 2:55 p.m. EDT

      Three White men were charged with assault after they attacked a Black riverboat co-captain at the city’s Riverfront Park over the weekend and ignited a brawl largely along racial lines, authorities in Montgomery, Ala., said.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/08/08/montgomery-alabama-riverfront-brawl-charges/

    2. Between that and the Guardian memory-holing bin Laden’s letter, I can only hope many more people are awoken to what evil liars the media are.

  12. Main Media are liars.
    They tried to say today that a plant based diet is healthier, without stating the proof of that claim.
    They just want to take meat, eggs and other healthy foods away so they can cram bugs and fake food down our throats.
    Liars..

  13. Besides, where are the long term studies on bugs and fake food being a viable and healthy option.
    Seriously, if bugs were actually a mainstay food option, historically humans would of used them rather than dying of famine.
    Also, what would the disruption be to nature if humans start eating reptile and bird food.

    1. Also, what would the disruption be to nature if humans start eating reptile and bird food.

      Obviously all these policies have global depopulation in mind. Start by making family formation utterly onerous, and we are almost there. Then disincentivize single motherhood. Make as many people think that children are vermin.

      Also, encourage obesity, in the developed world even glamorize it. That will shave decades off of lifespans. Meanwhile, starve the third world with engineered famines, because growing food causes global warming. And for the cherry on top, get as many people as possible to roll up their sleeves for dangerous mRNA jabs.

    1. “Let’s say it’s in Orange County where the house is $800 grand,” Cardone said. “You’d have to sell the house for $2 million just to pay the interest back. Not property taxes, not maintenance, not the wear and tear. … That’s the house you’re stuck in. That is the great American dream as a homeowner.”

      Let’s just say he hasn’t recently checked any listings in The OC if he thinks houses there are currently selling for $800 grand. That’s way low.

    2. “Let’s say it’s in Orange County where the house is $800 grand,” Cardone said. “You’d have to sell the house for $2 million just to pay the interest back. Not property taxes, not maintenance, not the wear and tear. … That’s the house you’re stuck in. That is the great American dream as a homeowner.”

      Let’s just say he hasn’t recently checked any listings in The OC if he thinks houses there are currently selling for $800 grand. That’s way below the reality of post-pandemic pricing.

  15. Uh oh …

    President Biden told a group of world leaders that California Gov. Gavin Newsom “could have the job I’m looking for” if he wanted, amid a low approval rating and discontent within his own party.

    “I want to talk about Governor Newsom. I want to thank him. He’s been one hell of a governor, man,” Biden said Wednesday during a welcome reception for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders in San Francisco. “Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for.”

    So Gruesome is the front runner. Heaven help us.

    1. Sounds like Biden let the cat out of the bag, again. I’m surprised tell him any kind of secrets now.

      That said, better Gavin than Michelle. Michelle would have had a far better chance, but the anti-Gavin ads write (and film) themselves. In his recall, Gavin barely got 60% in California. What’s going to happen in, say, Michigan, or Pennsylvania?

    2. The election itself will be merely *incidental* to the installation of Newsom into the White House. The votes themselves are irrelevant to this certain outcome.

      Also note that Newsom is young enough that when he suspends *ALL* future election because of Muh Climate Crisis and declares himself President for life, he will reign for decades.

      You heard it here first, I know things…

      1. The Colorado Sun is starting a new column titled: High Cost Of Colorado.

        https://coloradosun.com/2023/11/12/high-cost-colorado-introduction/

        The intro column parades the expected litany of people who can’t afford the cost of living anymore.

        I skimmed through the article and nowhere was the cause of the cost of living crisis addressed. Nothing about the government’s runaway spending addiction and $2T deficits. Reading between the lines, the answer proposed is more government spending.

        There is a section titled “hard facts”, which enumerates how the price of everything has gone into the stratosphere. No complaints about how the government’s official inflation numbers are utterly bogus.

          1. I’m sure most of the people profiled in the article will keep voting D, even as they become homeless.

        2. A robust proposal from Gov. Jared Polis this year that was aimed at driving down housing prices died in the state Senate. The land-use measure would have prevented local governments from limiting how many unrelated people could live together in one home and banned Colorado’s largest cities from restricting what kind of housing can be built near transit stops.

          This is the Dems answer to the housing problem.

  18. You want to know if we’re in a recession? Stop reading so called “expert” opinions and go outside and look around. Just got off the phone with bro who’s doing one of their largest shows for the year that they do every year this time in Vegas. He’s high up with an outfit that sells out door stuff and hot tubs. It’s dead. And the casinos aren’t seeing anywhere near the people they thought they’d see with the F1 Grand Prix in town. Turning out to be a bust. Said they starting to give tickets away. Last I heard most of those tickets were several hundred dollars a piece. But will we see anything about this in the news? Nope. The MSM will keep spouting everything’s peachy. So go out and take a look around and tell me we aren’t already neck deep into a recession. Nothing we see or hear from the media is anywhere near the truth.

  19. ‘the wave of distress headed for NYC’s multifamily market could be far greater than the distress predicted to hit the office market. ‘It’s going to be much worse,’ he said. ‘There are significantly more rent-stabilized buildings in New York City than office buildings’

    Well the horse race to the bottom aside Ofer, you get to ride them both out at the same time.

  20. ‘Rapidly rising land prices have further choked the housing sector, with land prices for development having risen as much as 160% in major German cities since 2010’

    Interesting how the land price never goes away in the bubble sense. These days it’s common to hear this tower sold at half 2017, etc. So why can’t they just re-adjust and unchoke the housing sector? IMO it’s because land is the bubble in a way and it has to fall significantly for building to resume. That and the doomed existing malinvestment is to be cleared with its credit implications.

  23. ;Home owners are already trying to ease the financial burden. In the western suburbs, people were already turning off their heaters to reduce their energy bills’

    Nariman I’d bet every one of those people and their kids are eating expensive food, probably more than once a day! We are finding out if they are winnahs!

    ‘People are worried about interest rate rises,’ Amalsadiwala said. ‘There is stress around and people are at the point of ‘how much more can we take?’ Some had been forced to list their homes for sale, while others were now looking to sell their investment properties. People who had borrowed more than 80 per cent of the value of their home were finding it hard to refinance, he said. ‘They borrowed when rates were 2 per cent, and they’re now 6 per cent,’ Amalsadiwala said. ‘They don’t have much equity built because market values are depressed, so it’s a double whammy’

    You only live once Nariman.

  24. Epoch Times via ZeroSludge — Sen. Rand Paul Says He Wants Federal Prosecution of Fauci for COVID Coverup (11/15/2023):

    “Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has said he’s pursuing federal criminal action against Dr. Anthony Fauci for perjury before Congress.

    In an interview on EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” with Jan Jekielek, Dr. Paul said he has asked Attorney General Merrick Garland to prosecute Dr. Fauci for giving false testimony during multiple congressional hearings.

    “We haven’t had a lot of luck,” Dr. Paul said. “Garland is not paying attention to the referral, but [Dr. Fauci] did lie to Congress.”

    Dr. Paul alleges that Dr. Fauci—and multiple other parts of the federal government—engaged in an “extensive” coverup of the origin, threat, and potential treatments for COVID-19. The senator said he detailed the two-year misdirection in his book “Deception: The Great Covid Cover-Up,” which was published in October.

    “Virtually everything they said in private, they said the opposite in the public at the same time,” Dr. Paul said.

    As early as February 2020, Dr. Fauci and other scientists convened and discussed their conclusion that the genetic sequence of the virus that causes COVID-19 appeared to have been manipulated in a lab to make it more infectious to humans. They were doubly concerned because they knew that the Wuhan, China, lab performed gain-of-function research.

    Dr. Paul also alleges that many of the scientists involved in the U.S. public health response to COVID-19 were “funding the lab in Wuhan.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/sen-rand-paul-says-he-wants-federal-prosecution-of-fauci-for-covid-cover-up-5529707?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge&src_src=partner&src_cmp=ZeroHedge

  25. ‘The lacklustre home price data reflects a fluctuating home market, but it was also a result of big discounts given by developers and local governments’

    Doesn’t that double fook the 20 million loanowners who don’t even have a concrete box yet Yan?

  27. FA Center
    How likely is a 1987-style stock-market crash today? Likelier than you’d think.
    Last Updated: Oct. 21, 2023 at 1:36 p.m. ET
    First Published: Oct. 18, 2023 at 2:59 p.m. ET
    By Mark Hulbert
    There’s a one-in-five chance that over the next 30 years the U.S. market will suffer a 20%-plus single-day plunge
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 23% on Oct. 19, 1987.
    Getty Images

    Thirty-six years ago, on Oct. 19, 1987, the U.S. stock market suffered its worst crash ever. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA lost 22.6%.

    The good news is that the odds are extremely low that U.S. stocks in the next several months will experience a comparable single-session decline.

    The bad news is that those odds aren’t zero….

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-likely-is-another-1987-like-stock-market-crash-maybe-more-than-you-think-b2a700ef

  28. Meanwhile, LA County has had four straight months of median home price increases to Oct, 2023, according to Redfin. It beggars belief this is happening. We are almost back to peak May 2022 levels, at least in nominal terms. Double bubble = double trouble? I think there might be something else going on here. Firstly, there seems to be quite a lot of volatility in monthly median prices, which is odd. Secondly, we don’t really know what is happening in the different percentiles. For example, it’s quite possible expensive homes are falling in price, while cheaper homes are increasing. I looked at this is a little detail and found that homes listed below the median in my city have a greater impact on prices than any other configuration. Finally, are the numbers actually representative of what is actually going on. The NAR (currently being sued, BTW) has been known to massage the numbers. Interestingly, the Bay area is down 12% and NY down 9%.

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