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A Floor Price This Month Could Be A Ceiling Price Next Month

A report from the Waco Herald Tribune in Texas. “Home construction has all but fallen off a cliff. The 371 permits issued through September to build new single-family homes in Waco is the lowest since the January-September total in 2016, and is down 32% from the first nine months a year ago. The 22 permits issued in September is the lowest in that month since 2010, and down nearly 48% year-over-year. ‘Average days on the market is 72. It used to be what? Five days?’ Coldwell Banker Apex residential agent Amanda Cunningham said, only half-joking about how long listed homes now remain unsold. The average home sales price dropped to $290,874 in September, down from $304,773 the same month last year.”

From Money Wise. “About 53,000 home purchase agreements fell through in September, according to RedFin. The high rate of cancellations is a continuing trend. In August, about 60,000 fell through – the most on record since the real estate brokerage started tracking that data in 2013. And homebuyers can afford to be choosier now as demand and competition softens. ‘House hunters today are taking their time and exploring their options, whereas six months ago, they had to act quickly and pull out every stop to compete because homes were selling almost immediately,’ says Tzahi Arbeli, a Redfin real estate agent in Las Vegas.”

Bizwest in Colorado. “Despite accepted benchmarks that would suggest otherwise, a prominent broker is firm in his belief that for residential real estate in the Boulder Valley, ‘it’s a buyer’s market.’ Even so, Todd Gullette wonders what those buyers are waiting for. Gullette, managing broker at Re/Max of Boulder, told a large audience that, ‘traditionally we look at whether it’s a buyer’s market based on how many months of inventory we have.’ He explained that ‘under five months of inventory is technically a seller’s market. I’m going to challenge that, because if we’ve been out there effectively, I think this is really a buyer’s market because we can measure the shift of negotiating power.'”

“‘Even with single-family and attached homes with somewhere between three and 3.5 months of inventory, we’re going to realize that the buyers have the power now,’ Gullette said. ‘If we were talking to a seller right now, they wouldn’t believe that it’s a seller’s market because they’ve lost so much in negotiating power.'”

“Gullette had a dose of reality for people wanting to put their homes on the market as well. ‘It’s good for our sellers to recognize that prices have dropped in all areas in all price ranges,’ he said. ‘You have sellers out there now saying ‘I’m not going to play the game with the buyer. If they want to buy the house, great, but if not, great, I don’t have to sell.’ Well, in a couple months you’re going to see these same listings out there for 270 days on the market. That’s them. Those are the ones that aren’t playing with the buyer.'”

The Wednesday Journal in Illinois. “‘The 1100 block of Highland Avenue in Oak Park has a long-standing problem. A 1960’s-era home on the block was abandoned mid-flip. A developer took off the top half of the house, and the parkway in front of the house was destroyed for rehab work that was never completed. Vanessa Paszek, who lives on the block, said that shortly after a developer purchased the home in 2020, he demolished a large portion of the home and put fencing around the house. Then, she said, ‘We started to see stop work notices plastered on the house, and the work on the house stopped.’ Audrey McClenton, who lives next door to the home, said: ‘There’s been no roof on the house for at least one-and-a-half years. Racoons are coming in and out. It’s like a nightmare. I can’t sell my house- who’s going to buy it next to this?'”

“McClenton and other neighbors did some research into the home and discovered that the home is owned by a local developer who owns several Oak Park homes, some in similar states of disrepair. Cook County records show that several other area homes owned by Foster Chambers, an independent contractor and real estate agent, or 52nd Ave LLC are in foreclosure or have entered the tax sale process. The 1139 Highland property entered the foreclosure process in April 2021, and McClenton said that through her work as a realtor, she is familiar with the foreclosure process but is unsure why the process has been so drawn out for this home. McClenton is unhappy with the lack of attention to the house. She said she wonders who is responsible for the state of the house, and said: ‘They need to tear it down.'”

The Brandon Sun in Canada. “Imagine a thriving commercial district in a city, with a range of amenities. And imagine that commercial district is surrounded by a vibrant residential neighbourhood with hundreds of safe, affordable housing units that are the homes of hundreds of families with young children. Now imagine that same commercial district and residential neighbourhood with drug-addled people wandering the sidewalks day and night, many of them armed with weapons of various sizes. And imagine many of those same people puking, defecating and urinating on the those sidewalks, day and night, while others openly sell or consume dangerous drugs, or engage in a range of sexual activities not far from where children are playing.”

“Actually, you don’t need to use your imagination at all. All I’ve done is describe the difference between what it was like when I was a kid growing up in Brandon’s core area compared to the situation now. On the residential side, some real estate agents discourage their clients from buying homes in the downtown neighbourhood, and core area homes listed for sale often languish unsold for months — at a time when housing is in short supply and high demand.”

From Global News. “Slowing housing markets in many parts of Canada are pushing some home sellers to make hard-fought concessions on price — or delay their plans to sell until next year — in the wake of higher rates. The main thing that’s changed in the region is how long it takes to sell a home, according to Lorna Willis, an agent with Re/Max Finest Realty in Kingston, Ont. While the average days on market in Kingston now stands at 24 days, she says it can take between three and six months to land a sale now. ‘It’s definitely been a shock for sellers, what’s changed,’ Willis tells Global News.”

“Despite signs that some jurisdictions are shifting into — or may already be in — a buyers’ market, Hanif Bayat, CEO of the financial analysis platform WOWA.ca. says sellers are not ‘adjusting their price as fast.’ In Ontario, he says many sellers are still accustomed to the market of a year or even six months ago when they held more negotiating power in the face of fervent buyer demand. ‘The sellers are not used to this environment … they don’t know that they don’t have that power that they had before,’ he says.”

The Sydney Morning Herald. “Borrowers can be stuck in ‘mortgage prison’ when they can’t refinance because they cannot meet the requirements that banks use to assess loans, which typically factor in a buffer of 3 per cent on top of the current interest rate in case of future rises. They can also be trapped by negative equity or low equity, but this is less common since home prices have been rebounding this year. It’s a predicament more Australians could find themselves in, given Reserve Bank estimates that 20 per cent of owner occupiers would be unable to refinance if the cash rate lifted to 4.6 per cent. Investors, who face higher rates, could have greater difficulty.”

“Shore Financial chief executive Theo Chambers said every rate rise increased the proportion of people unable to refinance. Some clients were being forced to sell, but these were typically those who stretched themselves to buy investments or secondary homes in the market boom. Mortgage Choice Dee Why’s James Algar said a small, but growing cohort of his clients were stuck in mortgage prison, others were working through their options to reduce mortgage stress – such as changing lenders, extending their loan terms, or switching to interest only loans.”

“‘I think [I saw] five people [last week] where even though they have enough equity to do it, they’ve not got enough income any more [to meet higher serviceability requirements] to make a move, it’s more prevalent now that people have loans they couldn’t re-borrow again,’ he said.”

South China Morning Post. “Developers are offering sweeteners such as delayed down payments to home buyers in Shanghai, one of the more resilient property markets in mainland China, in an attempt to spur demand in the face of slumping sales. The second-hand home market is faring little better, said You Liangzhou, the owner of Baonuo, a Shanghai-based property agency. Some owners are being forced to reduce their prices by as much as 6 per cent to find a buyer, something that used to be rare in Shanghai’s property market.”

“‘Given the current market conditions, home buyers are generally taking a wait-and-see approach,’ said a research note by Centaline’s Shanghai bureau. ‘On the one hand, market sentiment is not high, as supportive policies are less than expected. On the other hand, the sluggish sales performance makes it hard to increase prices, thus a ‘floor price’ this month could be a ‘ceiling price’ next month, which makes buyers hesitate to buy.'”

From CBC News. “The worksharing giant WeWork was supposed to fundamentally alter the future of the office. It raised billions of dollars, signed leases in office towers across North America, but filed for bankruptcy protection last week. Analysts say it collapsed, at least in part, because it never had a viable business model. ‘It didn’t really have a clear path to profitability. It never made any money,’ said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at the financial services firm Hargreaves Lansdown. Streeter says WeWork is just the latest in a string of high profile, well-funded ideas that failed spectacularly. ‘This is a lesson for would-be investors not to believe the hype,’ she told CBC News.”

“There’s a model here that has played out repeatedly over the past 10 years. Tech companies move in to disrupt an existing industry. There’s a wave of hype about the innovation. The new service loses money in the hopes of eventually turning a profit. But as often as not, those profits never materialize. But the experiment has fundamentally changed the existing industry. The author and tech expert Cory Doctorow has coined a term for this process. He calls it ‘enshittification.'”

“‘Here is how platforms die,’ he wrote in an essay first published on his website earlier this year. ‘First, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.’ He points to Uber, Amazon and Airbnb as just a handful of examples. In Uber’s case, Doctorow says the company raised billions of dollars that allowed it to operate at a loss. He says the belief was that if the experiment didn’t work, things could just go back to the way they were. But that’s not what happened.”

“The taxi industry was decimated. In some cases, public transit was reduced as well because prospective riders were simply taking an Uber instead. He recently got off a train to find there was no connecting bus, no taxis and as Uber cuts back, there were no ride-hailing services available either. ‘That’s the lasting legacy here is that we don’t just have this era in which, you know, small businesses are chased out of the industry, it’s that we then go back to a status quo that’s worse,’ said Doctorow.”

“When you zoom out, all these industries are very different. And the startups that challenged them are unique in their approaches. But there’s one common theme: Cheap money. For nearly 15 years the world was awash in cheap money. Extremely low interest rates made investors willing to indulge companies that lost money without a clear plan to profitability. Now, as interest rates have shot up, and the willingness to take on risk has plummeted. And that may well change the way these startups take on existing industries. But it won’t undo the damage done along the way.”

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This Post Has 80 Comments

  1. ‘told a large audience that, ‘traditionally we look at whether it’s a buyer’s market based on how many months of inventory we have.’ He explained that ‘under five months of inventory is technically a seller’s market. I’m going to challenge that, because if we’ve been out there effectively, I think this is really a buyer’s market because we can measure the shift of negotiating power’

    I’ve been saying that for years Todd.

  3. ‘imagine that same commercial district and residential neighbourhood with drug-addled people wandering the sidewalks day and night, many of them armed with weapons of various sizes. And imagine many of those same people puking, defecating and urinating on the those sidewalks, day and night, while others openly sell or consume dangerous drugs, or engage in a range of sexual activities not far from where children are playing’

    ‘Actually, you don’t need to use your imagination at all. All I’ve done is describe the difference between what it was like when I was a kid growing up in Brandon’s core area compared to the situation now’

    This is Manitoba. Everything guberment touches turns to sh$t.

    2. Drug addicts in freekin’ Manitoba? Seriously, da fuq?

      Why/how did these people all start taking these drugs in the first place? I never really got a good answer to this question, and I simply can’t believe they all got hooked on post-op percocet.

  4. ‘The taxi industry was decimated. In some cases, public transit was reduced as well because prospective riders were simply taking an Uber instead. He recently got off a train to find there was no connecting bus, no taxis and as Uber cuts back, there were no ride-hailing services available either. ‘That’s the lasting legacy here is that we don’t just have this era in which, you know, small businesses are chased out of the industry, it’s that we then go back to a status quo that’s worse’

    Everything central bankers touch turns to sh$t.

    1. Commuters who have the means are going to take a hard pass on relying on public transportation in cities where unchecked vibrancy is the rule.

    2. Everything central bankers touch turns to sh$t.

      “The author and tech expert Cory Doctorow has coined a term for this process. He calls it ‘enshittification.’”

  5. “in a couple months you’re going to see these same listings out there for 270 days on the market”

    The winnahs?

    1. You stick to your guns, Greedheads. When #Bidenomics ushers in a new era of prosperity for all, and the Spring Miracle Revival pushes shack valuations to new highs, all those naysayers will be confounded. The “analysts” on CNBC are unanimous in assuring me of this, and they have models & research & stuff, so they wouldn’t steer me wrong.

      1. The article referenced here is about Boulder.

        Boulder is special. Boulder is different. Economic fundamentals do not apply to Boulder, because reasons.

        1. The flapping of all those Ukraine, Palestine, & pride flags has reached St. Greta’s ears, and she shines her countenance upon Communist Boulder.

          1. Boulder, the town where self avowed communists are landlords, business owners, executives, belong to expensive clubs and drive six figure cars.

            As Robert Heinlein predicted, we are living in the crazy years.

        2. “There’s some pent-up demand out there, Gullette said. “There’s buyers out there; they’re just waiting.”

          Waiting for what?

          “I’m not sure what buyers are waiting for,” he said. “The stars don’t really align for a buyer’s market.

          Due to the combination of high prices and normal interest rates, housing is the most unaffordable it has ever been. And they wonder why it’s so hard to sell now?

          And once prices start to collapse buyers will slam their wallets shut and wait for the dust to settle. Blood in the streets, as some here like to say.

          The Used House Sellers are in for a world of hurt. Oh, and they can kiss 5-6% commission rates goodbye too. Most of them are going to have to find a real job, and since few have marketable skills, they will end up doing menial jobs, like stocking shelves at WalMart.

  6. ‘Average days on the market is 72. It used to be what? Five days?’ Coldwell Banker Apex residential agent Amanda Cunningham said, only half-joking about how long listed homes now remain unsold.

    Price them to sell in today’s market & they will sell, greedheads.

  7. ‘House hunters today are taking their time and exploring their options, whereas six months ago, they had to act quickly and pull out every stop to compete because homes were selling almost immediately,’ says Tzahi Arbeli, a Redfin real estate agent in Las Vegas.”

    FBs didn’t have to “act quickly” – they chose to. And now they’ll learn the hard way that buying into a bursting housing bubble is Peak Stupidity.

  8. Even so, Todd Gullette wonders what those buyers are waiting for.

    Todd knows exactly what buyers are waiting for, but saying it out loud wouldn’t be conducive to Always Be Closing.

  9. Analysts say it collapsed, at least in part, because it never had a viable business model.

    These same globalist scum media “analysts” sang the praises of WeWork’s “visionary” boy wonder during the Ponzi market enabled by the Fed’s gusher of QE funny money.

    2. The feckless military leadership that coercively forced service members to take an unsafe, ineffective “vaccine” in the name of “readiness” are still in charge. A recruiting pitch touting “new guidance” doesn’t change that – it just shows the brass are starting to panic at the prospect of going to war with a demoralized, hollowed-out military. Meanwhile, the demographic that supplies the most capable & effective warfighters is electing to take a hard pass on joining an institution that couldn’t be more clear about its loathing for white males, especially those with patriotic or Christian leanings.

    3. From WRS:

      “On the surface this seems like a huge victory, but underneath it implies
      that the military is desperate for people to join or return because there is
      an impending holy war brewing and they need the bodies.

      If I got kicked out for refusing to let them inject me with a toxic
      bioweapon and they sent me a letter that says “sorry you can come back
      now, we made a mistake in destroying your career”, I would reply with a
      bolded GFY and that you won’t come back until all the military
      leadership, government shills, and criminal corporations responsible for
      the mandate were tried for their crimes against humanity in nuremburg
      2.0 and punished accordingly.”

  12. Biden invokes wartime powers to fund electric heaters as he cracks down on gas appliances (11/17/2023):

    “President Biden invoked a Cold War-era law in a surprising move Friday to pour taxpayer funds into domestic manufacturing of electric heat pumps, an alternative to gas-powered residential furnaces.

    In a joint announcement with the White House, the Department of Energy (DOE) said the federal government would award a “historic” $169 million for nine projects across 15 sites nationwide in an effort to accelerate electric heat pump manufacturing. The significant level of funding was made possible after Biden utilized the 1950 Defense Production Act (DPA) to increase domestic production of green energy technologies.

    “This is absolutely shameful corporate welfare. But we’re to believe that, because it’s for the sake of climate change, all is well. I think that’s ridiculous,” Ben Lieberman, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, told Fox News Digital in an interview.

    “Of all the Biden administration’s claimed climate emergency declarations, this may be the craziest of them all,” Lieberman continued. “There is no shortage of heat pumps — it’s just that not every homeowner wants them. Consumers ought to decide for themselves. The government has no role in tilting the balance in favor of one energy source over another. That’s clearly what’s happening here.”

    DOE’s finalized regulations, which are slated to go into effect in 2028, specifically require furnaces to achieve an annual fuel utilization efficiency (AFUE) of 95%, meaning manufacturers would only be allowed to sell furnaces that convert at least 95% of fuel into heat within six years. The current market standard AFUE for a residential furnace is 80%.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-invokes-wartime-powers-fund-electric-heaters-cracks-down-gas-appliances

    Communism.

    1. I bought a heat pump once for a rental. I’ll never own one again. Constant headaches. These eco-fascist mandates fall flat every time they are actually implemented. See K-da and the UK.

      1. “slated to go into effect in 2028”

        This, combined with the communism out of the state capitol in Denver, is terrifying as someone looking to build a new house in the next few years.

        I own the lot outright, I’m doing almost all of the demo myself, I’ll be doing all the electrical myself, I have other tradesmen I know personally that I’ll be subbing out on the new construction, I’m not planning to build a large house, and I do want some elements of efficiency specifically windows and insulation.

        The government wants to make this unaffordable and impossible.

        And even if I can build this house within my targeted budget, will I be able to afford living there 10 20 30 years from now?

        1. this exactly. Heat pumps work fine as long as you are in a temperate climate where it just gets chilly. Where it gets COLD (like ummmmm a good half of the US) they are a complete waste.

      3. I bought a heat pump once for a rental. I’ll never own one again.

        Let’s pretend you’ll have any say in the matter, peasant.

  13. I am on a business trip to SE PA. The bars and restaurants are full on Fridays and weekend. To avoid the crowd, went to lunch on a Saturday (seafood) with a few colleagues. Place was not packed. The grocery stores (Giant, Walmart) are packed everyday. The only difference is people shopping there are from a different social level, always arguing with spouses on what to buy and looking at cheaper food. Prices of fresh produce, fruits, meat are considerably higher. Non-brand clothes, undergarment prices are a shocker. About 160% higher than 2 years ago. Shoe prices are roughly the same.

    This part of PA (40 miles north of Philly) has a lot of small industries, places that actually make things. I do not have any idea why the eateries are packed on weekend evenings. Maybe the office crowd is doing well.

    1. I do not have any idea why the eateries are packed on weekend evenings.

      People are charging them on the credit cards.

  14. Homebuilder Nightmare: Hundreds Of Dallas Homes Sit Vacant
    Home in Dallas Texas
    33 minutes ago

    Builders in Dallas are counting their losses as hundreds of homes sit vacant. While the hottest communities continue to sell, these eight up and coming communities are facing huge losses as builders struggle to find buyers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQxqGvWxngc

    19 minutes.

    3. Inventory & prices are both more or less unchanged over the past several months. Days on market getting longer, though. Am seeing piddly price reductions on about a third of the listings, but no sawing & slashing, yet. No reason whatsoever to buy at these prices.

    4. Local News
      Home prices starting to fall in parts of Southern California
      by: Will Conybeare
      Posted: Nov 19, 2023 / 03:14 PM PST
      Updated: Nov 19, 2023 / 09:04 PM PST

      Prospective buyers in some parts of Southern California are seeing a little relief when it comes to housing prices, new data suggests.

      According to the California Association of Realtors, the median price of a single-family home across the entire state for Oct. 2023 was $840,360, signifying a 0.4 percent decrease from September’s $843,340.

      Locally, Ventura County buyers saw the biggest month-to-month price drop, with homes there selling for 6.6 percent less in October than they were in September.

      The average single-family home now costs just under $900,000 in Ventura County, according to the California Association of Realtors.

      Los Angeles and Orange counties also saw significant home price drops of 2.3 and 2.7 percent, respectively, during that same monthlong period.

      However, those looking to buy a single-family home in O.C. still have to fork over a median price of $1,275,000, which ranks among the most expensive in the state.
      …
      https://ktla.com/news/local-news/home-prices-starting-to-fall-in-parts-of-southern-california-data-suggests/

    1. He is turning into Captain Pike in a wheelchair, and at some point the Weekend at Bernie’s charade will collapse.

      Getting Heels to resign will be tricky. Perhaps the path of least resistance will be to renominate Joetato and Heels, then have him step down in September and replace him with someone like Gruesome.

      The real question is in what state will the nation be in a year from now? Will it still be safe to fly? Will there be rolling blackouts, 40% real inflation, double digit unemployment? It’s becoming obvious that cracks are forming in the dam and that we are kind of like the people in Iceland, waiting for an eruption. Then throw in the fact that the Dems have no intention of handing power over, no matter what voters say. Their latest scheme is to claim that Trump is senile and wants to impose tyranny … wait … didn’t the Dems already do that?

  19. ChroniBuzz
    @liv59224
    🚨 **TRAGIC:** NYC Man Dies Trying to Stop Carjackers – Clinging to Hood Ends in Fatal Fall

    Mauro Chimbay, 43, lost his life attempting to thwart carjackers who burglarized his SUV. Witnesses describe him convulsing after being thrown from the car. Chimbay, a husband and father, noticed the break-in while playing volleyball.😢 #NYCTragedy #CarjackingIncident 🌆🚗

    https://x.com/liv59224/status/1725367938524327982?s=20

  20. Post
    See new posts
    Conversation
    InvestigateJ6
    @InvestigateJ6
    Look at all this early J6 footage
    @TuckerCarlson
    could show the world, but won’t.

    His producer
    @gregg_re
    and his team at Fox were given all of this last year. #J6CoverUp

    J6 protestors were fired upon with NO warning. USCP Chief Waldow lied saying he gave warnings but never did.

    https://x.com/InvestigateJ6/status/1699455735288021400?s=20

    1. Citizen journalists who were at the rally reported at the time that the Capitol Police had needlessly provoked the crowd by firing dangerous flash-bangs into what up to that point had been a peaceful assembly.

    2. January 6th was a JOKE.

      Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney need to be in prison for lying to Congress and the American people.

  22. Brandon Straka
    @BrandonStraka
    🚨Newly released footage of Matthew Perna (seen in red sweatshirt) shows Matthew walking calmly in the Capitol shooting video.

    Matthew pled guilty to initial charges, believing he may face 6-12 months in prison.

    Only after pleading guilty did the DOJ inform Matthew that they would seek a TERRORISM enhancement to his sentencing, which would raise his sentence to a potential 9 years in federal prison.

    4 days after receiving news that the DOJ would push for this sentencing enhancement, Matthew went into his garage, put a rope around his neck, and hung himself.

    https://x.com/BrandonStraka/status/1725963661288591630?s=20

  23. Rosalyn Carter just died at age 96. At least she had the comfort of knowing before she passed that her husband Jimmy is no longer our worst president ever.

    1. May she rest in peace. Carter wasn’t a great President, but I give him points for at least trying to do the right thing. I don’t think Jimmy will hang on much longer either… not much reason for it now.

    2. At least she had the comfort of knowing before she passed that her husband Jimmy is no longer our worst president ever.

      D@mn funny and sadly, d@mn true

  24. [Big Brother speaks: This time from Belgium …]

    “Reduce Your Emissions Within Two Months Or Face The Consequences”, Brussels Tells 12 Member States

    https://rmx.news/european-union/reduce-your-emissions-within-two-months-or-face-the-consequences-brussels-tells-12-member-states/

    The European Commission has ordered Hungary, Romania, and 10 other member states to comply with EU air pollution legislation and reduce their emissions of several pollutants to reduce air pollution.

    The EU executive sent a letter of formal notice to Luxembourg, Poland, and Romania, and a reasoned opinion to Bulgaria, Ireland, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Austria, Portugal, and Sweden for failing to ensure the correct implementation of their commitments to reduce several air pollutants as required by Directive (EU) 2016/2284 on the national emission reductions of certain air pollutants (“NEC Directive”).

    The NEC Directive sets national emission reduction commitments for five important air pollutants: nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

    These pollutants contribute to poor air quality and have a significant negative impact on human health and the environment, the European Commission noted in a press release. National commitments must be met by each member state every year between 2020 and 2029, with more ambitious reductions from 2030 onwards. Member states are also required to establish National Air Pollution Control Programmes (NAPs) to show how these reduction commitments will be met.

    In January 2023, Brussels sent a letter of formal notice to 14 member states that had not met their 2020 emission reduction commitments for one or more pollutants covered by the NEC Directive. In February 2023, member states submitted their most recent national emission inventories, which included emissions for 2020 and 2021, accompanied by an informative inventory report.

    The European Commission is sending additional letters of formal notice to Luxembourg, Poland, and Romania, which have two months to respond and remedy the shortcomings identified.

    1. Yahoo
      Business Insider
      The stock market is edging toward extremes of Great Depression and dot-com eras
      Anil Varma
      Fri, November 17, 2023 at 8:30 AM PST·3 min read
      The stock market is edging toward extremes of Great Depression and dot-com eras
      Image of a stock trader at the New York Stock Exchange.
      Equities look historically high relative to government bonds.
      Johannes Eiselle/Getty Images

      – Stock-market valuations, by one measure, have hit highs surpassed only a few times in history.

      – Equities look historically high relative to government bonds, according to PIMCO and GAM Asset Management.

      – The market’s upbeat expectations on future corporate earnings may “face disappointment,” says PIMCO.

      After a rally that defied high interest rates and recession calls, stock valuations are now edging toward levels seen before some of the greatest market meltdowns in history – by one measure at least.

      A time-tested way of assessing whether equities are fairly valued is by comparing them with government bonds, considered one of the safest forms of investment.

      And by that metric, stocks are looking historically expensive, according to experts from PIMCO and GAM Asset Management.

      A key measure of the richness of stocks relative to debt is the so-called equity risk premium — or the extra return on shares over Treasury bonds.

      The metric has plunged this year, indicating stretched stock valuations, toward levels seen during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.

      “Delving deeper into historical data, we find that in the past century there have been only a handful of instances when US equities have been more expensive relative to bonds – such as during the Great Depression and the dot-com crash,” PIMCO portfolio managers Erin Browne, Geraldine Sundstrom, and Emmanuel Sharef write in a recent research note.

      “History suggests equities likely won’t stay this expensive relative to bonds.”
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-edging-toward-extremes-163051284.html

    2. Stocks may crash 30%, a recession looks imminent, and commercial real estate is a bubble about to burst, market prophet says. Here are Gary Shilling’s 8 best quotes from a new interview.
      Theron Mohamed
      Nov 19, 2023, 3:30 AM PST
      Gary Shilling.
      Bloomberg TV

      – Market prophet Gary Shilling issued a raft of dire warnings to investors in an interview this week.

      – Stocks may crash 30%, a recession is imminent, and commercial real estate is a bubble about to burst, he said.

      – The Fed is likely to crush inflation and start cutting interest rates next year, Shilling said.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crash-recession-commercial-real-estate-bubble-shilling-2023-11

    3. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but every other time since WWII when the yield curve inverted for a protacted period of time, a recession was soon to follow.

      Is it different this time?

      1. Bonds
        What the Yield Curve Says About a Recession
        And what to do about it.
        Daniel Sotiroff
        Nov 16, 2023
        An illustration of a downward trending line.

        Much has been made about an impending recession. The reasons, however, are seldom discussed, are even less understood, and do little to inform what actions investors should take (if any).

        Economists often use historical information to form opinions about the direction of the economy. Those opinions aren’t built around perfect information. Markets and the economy are uncertain, so nothing is guaranteed. With history as a guide, several key signs indicate that a recession is more likely than not in the near future.

        An Economic Crystal Ball

        One harbinger was the return of inflation, which started ticking higher in early 2021. Prices tend to rise as demand outstrips supply. After some hesitation, the Federal Reserve started increasing its short-term policy rate. Theoretically, that makes money more expensive to borrow, a tactic that’s intended to cool down the economy and tamp down inflation. Those signs tend to align with the peak of an economic cycle, meaning economic growth should slow.

        The rise in short-term interest rates created an unusual, though not unprecedented, situation in the bond market. The yield curve—which measures the yield to maturity of bonds across various maturities—sloped down at the end of July, as shown in Exhibit 1, meaning bonds with shorter maturities had a higher yield than those with longer maturities. The curve normally slopes up and to the right as investors usually demand a higher yield to bear incremental risks that occur over longer time horizons.

        The forces behind an inverted curve come from a mix of theory and practice. Yields at the short end are closely tied to the Fed’s short-term policy rate, while those at the longer end of the curve are thought to come from the additional yield investors demand for bearing long-term risks. In today’s environment, the Fed has increased its short-term policy rate to fight inflation, and the yields on short-term Treasury bills have followed suit.

        Until recently, long-term investors didn’t appear to be demanding additional yield for holding longer-term bonds; presumably, they thought inflation was a short-term phenomenon. But long-term rates have risen over the past three months, indicating an expectation that inflation will be higher for longer. The curve remains inverted, but Exhibit 1 shows it was closer to being flat at the end of October than it was three months prior.

        Calculating the difference in yield, or spread, between Treasuries of different maturities is a simpler way to quantify the shape of the curve. The spread between 10-year and three-month Treasury yields is a common metric. A negative spread indicates the curve is inverted because the 10-year issue has a lower yield than its three-month counterpart.

        Why do spreads, or the shape of the curve, matter? Historically, negative spreads have predicted an impending recession. The observation is credited to Duke professor Campbell Harvey, whose doctoral thesis outlined the relationship. As a predictive tool, the 10-year minus three-month Treasury spread has been nearly flawless over the past four decades (Harvey’s work goes back to the late 1960s). Exhibit 2 confirms that a recession (highlighted with gray bars) followed shortly after the spread turned negative.

        [CHART APPEARS HERE]
        10-year minus 3-month Treasury Spread
        A negative 10-year-minus-3-month spread has preceded the past five recessions.
        Source: Federal Reserve Economic Database. Data as of Aug. 7, 2023.
        …
        https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/what-yield-curve-says-about-recession

      2. NPR
        Economy
        The ‘R’ word: Why this time might be an exception to a key recession rule
        November 12, 20235:00 AM ET
        Heard on Weekend Edition Sunday
        Scott Horsley
        7-Minute Listen
        The ‘R’ word: Why this time might be an exception to a key recession rule
        The unemployment rate jumped in October, but layoffs are still rare.
        Joe Raedle/Getty Images

        October’s unemployment rate set off alarm bells in some quarters. That’s because it was a half percentage point higher than its recent low — a jump that by one rule of thumb signals the onset of a recession.

        The monthly jobs report showed the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.9% in October — very low by historical standards but up from 3.4% in April.

        Here’s why that’s worth watching, but may be less worrisome than it seems.

        The Sahm Rule has observed a pattern since 1970

        The rule was formulated by Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist, who observed that every time since 1970 that unemployment rose by half a percentage point or more from its low point in the preceding year, it marked the beginning of a recession.

        The logic of the rule is simple: When people lose their jobs, they spend less money, which puts pressure on businesses to cut more workers, and the downward cycle continues. Once unemployment jumps by half a percentage point, it typically keeps on climbing — at least 2 points and sometimes more.

        But Sahm says this time may be different.

        “Empirical patterns are not laws of nature,” Sahm told Weekend Edition Sunday. “Rules are made to be broken.”

        Why this time might be different
        …
        https://www.npr.org/2023/11/12/1212175542/sahm-rule-recession-unemployment-rate

    4. The stock market incorrectly priced in dovish Fed pivots 6 times in the last few years. Will this 7th time be any different?
      Filip De Mott
      Nov 19, 2023, 5:30 AM PST
      US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
      US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, DC, on March 22, 2023. Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty Images

      – Recent inflation data has convinced markets of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve.

      – But the market wrongly priced in a looser stance at least six times in the last few years, Deutsche Bank wrote.

      – While this time could be true, inflation is hardest to combat in the final stretch, analysts warned.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-fed-rate-cuts-inflation-recession-bond-yields-2023-11

    5. Buffett Valuation Indicator: October 2023 Update
      by Jennifer Nash, 11/2/23
      Note: This update incorporates the Q3 GDP advance estimate and the October close data. Please note that this update follows GDP releases, which always lag.

      The Buffett Indicator, also known as Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio is a long-term valuation indicator for stocks that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001, he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” It is a measure of the total market value of all publicly-traded stocks in a country divided by the country’s GDP and can be used as a way to assess whether the country’s stock market is undervalued, fair valued, or overvalued.

      The four valuation indicators we track in our monthly valuation overview offer a long-term perspective of well over a century. The raw data for the “Buffett Indicator” only goes back as far as the middle of the 20th century. Quarterly GDP dates from 1947, and the Fed’s balance sheet has quarterly updates beginning in Q4 1951. With an acknowledgment of this abbreviated timeframe, let’s take a look at the plain vanilla quarterly ratio with no effort to interpolate monthly data.

      Buffett Indicator: The Latest Data

      With the Q3 GDP advance estimate and the October close data, we now have an updated look at the popular “Buffett Indicator” — the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 180.6%, up from 173.1% the previous quarter.
      …
      https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/11/02/buffett-valuation-indicator-october-2023-update

  29. More Foreclosures Its getting ugly out there Mortgage Renewals are bad
    The Canadian Real Estate Show
    5 hours ago

    Darryl and TK discuss the Canadian Real Estate Market in depth from their own unique perspectives with a particular focus on The Toronto Real estate Market. Today we are lucky to have Mark Morris join us.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGlDB01m-7k

    1 hour 8 minutes. You can skip forward to 11 minutes to listen to the lawyer.

  30. ‘It’s good for our sellers to recognize that prices have dropped in all areas in all price ranges’

    That’s the spirit Todd!

    ‘You have sellers out there now saying ‘I’m not going to play the game with the buyer. If they want to buy the house, great, but if not, great, I don’t have to sell.’ Well, in a couple months you’re going to see these same listings out there for 270 days on the market. That’s them. Those are the ones that aren’t playing with the buyer’

    It’ almost like a complete reversal of what you were saying not so long ago Todd. Back then it was fence sitters are gonna miss out on that sweet equity, etc.

  31. ‘While the average days on market in Kingston now stands at 24 days, she says it can take between three and six months to land a sale now. ‘It’s definitely been a shock for sellers, what’s changed’

    Obviously Lorna, you UHS are pulling and relisting to hold the days on market down. Sure sellers are shocked when you LIE TO THEIR FACE!

  32. ‘Cook County records show that several other area homes owned by Foster Chambers, an independent contractor and real estate agent, or 52nd Ave LLC are in foreclosure or have entered the tax sale process. The 1139 Highland property entered the foreclosure process in April 2021, and McClenton said that through her work as a realtor, she is familiar with the foreclosure process but is unsure why the process has been so drawn out for this home. McClenton is unhappy with the lack of attention to the house. She said she wonders who is responsible for the state of the house, and said: ‘They need to tear it down’

    Bad news about not being able to seller yer shack Audrey. One thing you paint a clear picture of: sound lending!

  33. ‘Here is how platforms die…First, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die’

    Sounds like what google has been doing.

  34. 4-packs to ski at Loveland this season are almost $70 a day now. That’s gonna be a pass.

    Backcountry is free…

    1. One of Milei’s campaign promises was to get rid of the Argentine Peso altogether and adopt… the US dollar as its currency. So much for dedollarization and “full adoption” 🙄 of Bitcoin. The peso is inflating away to nothing and most of Argentina is trading in dollars anyway.

  38. When people move out of an area, what happens to the houses they leave behind? Do they just disappear? Do investors snap them up and wait for their value to rise? Do they get added to housing for sale inventory?

    ‘Tis a puzzlement!

    1. Yahoo Finance
      US Cities Where Population Has Decreased the Most
      Jaclyn DeJohn
      November 15, 2023, 7:22 am

      When a city’s population declines – whether birth rates go down, deaths increase, or people simply move to another area – it can affect the housing market, small businesses, employment and other factors. Paying attention to demographic changes can help residents, governments and businesses understand new trends and inform how to best position themselves.

      With this in mind, SmartAsset ranked 344 of the largest U.S. cities based on the largest population declines over five years between 2017 and 2022.

      Key Findings

      – Paradise, Nevada lost 22% of its population despite population growth across the Southwest. Many cities in Nevada, Arizona and Texas topped the list for the highest population growth between 2017 and 2022, but Paradise bucks that trend. The latest population count was 183,321, down from 235,123 residents in 2017. This rate of decline is almost double that of second-place Jackson, Mississippi (-12.7%).

      – California cities make up 40% of the top 25 places where the population decreased most. El Monte had the fifth-highest population shrinkage studywide, losing 9.3% of its population. San Francisco ranked sixth overall with a 8.6% decrease over five years. Santa Ana (-7.8%), Glendale (-6.8%), Inglewood (-6.3%), San Jose (6.2%), Pasadena (-5.9%), Concord (-5.5%), and Corona (5.0%) also topped the list.

      – The population of Elgin, Illinois decreased by 7% in just one year. While this city has a five-year population decline of 4.2%, Elgin saw the highest one-year population decline. Residents here dropped to 109,634 in 2022 from 117,850 just a year prior.

      10 Places With the Biggest Five-Year Population Declines

      1. Paradise, Nevada
      Paradise experienced a significant population drop of about 22.0% over the past five years, resulting in a 2022 population of 183,321. The city’s gender distribution leans slightly towards females at 50.9%.

      2. Jackson, Mississippi
      Jackson saw a decline of approximately 12.7% in its populace from 2017 to 2022. Most recently housing 146,019 residents, the city has a predominant female majority at 53.46%.

      3. East Los Angeles, California
      East LA reported a population reduction of roughly 10.0% in the last five years. The 2022 census showed 112,965 residents, with men slightly outnumbering women at 51.7%.

      4. Aurora, Illinois
      Aurora faced a population decrease of nearly 10.0% over five years. The 2022 census recorded 182,336 inhabitants, with females slightly outnumbering males at 50.5%.

      5. El Monte, California
      The population dropped by approximately 9.3% in El Monte over the past five years. Most recently, the city’s population is 105,307, with a near-equal gender distribution between men and women.

      6. San Francisco, California
      San Francisco saw a 8.6% reduction in its populace. As of 2022, the city housed 808,437 individuals, with a marginal male majority at 51.3%.

      7. Hialeah, Florida
      Hialeah had an 8.1% decline in residents. This put the 2022 count at 220,274 with women outnumbering men at 52.9%.

      8. Detroit, Michigan
      In Detroit, the population decreased 7.8% since 2017. With 620,410 residents in 2022, the gender ratio is skewed toward women at 52.5%.

      9. Santa Ana, California
      Santa Ana’s population fell approximately 7.8%. The 2022 population of the city is 308,203, with a near-even split of 50.6% men and 49.4% women.

      10. Birmingham, Alabama
      Birmingham experienced a population decrease of around 7.7% since 2017. With 196,353 residents in 2022, women in the city make up the majority at 53.2%.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cities-where-population-decreased-most-144756053.html

    3. what happens to the houses they leave behind?

      My experience living in a state with a century of economic decline is:

      Depreciation is relentless.

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