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Investors Are Now Wary Of Throwing More Money After What Can Look Like A Sinking Ship

A report from the Palm Beach Daily News in Florida. “Real estate agents and brokers are welcoming house-hunters with some good news, even if that news is relative: Although November almost always sees an uptick in listings, more properties are for sale right now in the multiple listing service than at this time of year for the past three years. Corcoran Group agent Bill Yahn said more listings are likely on the way. ‘A lot of (agents) hold their inventory until the (winter) season starts. So we’re starting to see new inventory on the market. And we’re seeing some of the properties that have been on the market for a while have started to be repriced’ a little lower, Yahn said. The price differential isn’t necessarily dramatic, Yahn said, using as an example a house on the North End that might be reduced from asking $16 million to $14 million.”

“‘There haven’t been many of those (price reductions), but there have been some,’ he added. In any event, prices have settled far above pre-pandemic levels, according to sales reports from agencies that do business on the island, even if they are no longer on a rapid rise. ‘The feeding frenzy is over,’ Yahn said. ‘The prices are not going up — but they’ve leveled up.’ Many sellers, agents say, are finally adjusting their price expectations in the aftermath of what has been described as a once-in-a-generation real estate boom that drove the market over the last few years in Palm Beach.”

From ABC 7. “Rental prices in Lee County look like they’re on the decline. Compared to earlier this year, rent prices in cities like Fort Myers and Cape Coral are significantly lower. So why are prices starting to go down? For starters, it doesn’t look like as many people are flocking to Florida as they were during the pandemic. Sharon Torregrossa, a realtor with VIP Realty said it looks like supply has finally caught up with demand. ‘There was such a demand a few years ago that every builder was building everything they could on every lot that they could obtain,’ she said.”

“Torregrossa said this time last year, if you were looking for a long-term rental in Cape Coral, there were only a few options available. But now, there are hundreds of houses to look at. ‘I looked at the rental market on single-family homes and there’s nearly 500 single-family homes for rent in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral area that are looking for long-term rentals,’ she said.”

The American Statesman. “Through the buyers and sellers he works with, Rob Kellogg, a real estate agent with Realty Austin, has a good grasp of the ups and downs of the Central Texas housing market, a five-county region extending from Georgetown to San Marcos. ‘I think rates are the biggest driver of this slower pace of sales,’ Kellogg said. ‘It’s really hurting buyers’ purchasing power, and so sellers are forced to reduce prices as a result.’ Case in point: A year ago, a unit comparable to one Kellogg was helping market in a condominium community — off East Riverside Drive in the Montopolis area of Southeast Austin — was fetching a price around $440,000. With an initial list price in June of $400,000, the condo saw healthy interest, but with the slower market (he said it was ‘dead’ in July and August), no offers were received as the summer wore on.”

“Five price reductions later, the sellers finally got a contract Sept. 5 for $350,000, $15,000 less than the $365,000 list price by then. The sale closed in October, with the sellers’ equity enabling them to buy a newly built home they had picked out in Driftwood. ‘We reduced it not even close to what the peak of the market was,’ Kellogg said of the condo price, ‘but we had to get realistic with the price. There were five, six or even seven units on the market there, so there was a lot of competition. We were fortunate to have the updates.’ Kellogg said discounted prices aren’t uncommon. ‘If a house has been on the market longer than 30 days, you’re seeing some pretty serious price reductions all over town,’ he said.”

“Between the spring of 2020 and the spring of 2022, the market saw a huge increase in home prices. ‘During this two-year period, the median home price went from $330,000 to $550,000, an increase of 67%,’ said Eldon Rude, a longtime housing market consultant and principal of 360° Real Estate Analytics. Now, ‘with sharply higher interest rates and slowing job growth, it’s not surprising that home prices have declined from their record highs in recent months,’ Rude said. ‘The median home price is down 18% in the last 17 months,’ and the supply of housing has increased from a low of less than a month to four months at the end of September.”

The Real Deal. “For the past few years, Texas multifamily was one of the hottest real estate investments in the country. Not anymore. Industry players think the trouble has only just begun, and that might be a lagging assessment. Plenty of properties already are being sold at major discounts, and once-mighty development pipelines are all but dead is some cities. No segment of the asset class is safe. A deluge of Class A apartments will come online in the next 18 months, giving developers little power over pricing. Meanwhile, many of the Class B and Class C value-add properties that were bought for record prices in 2021 and 2022 have seen major declines in values.”

“Scores of small developers, syndicators and Main Street investors are now staring down a massacre in the Lone Star state. The picture in Texas multifamily has changed so severely that the recent past sounds like a totally different era. Landlords are in a vise — on one end, they’ve lost pricing power due to the enormous amount of similar, newly built projects flooding the market. On the other, many of the construction loans that funded their developments are maturing. Developers can either sell their projects or refinance them, but in many cases, neither option is an easy one.”

“In the far-off glory days of 2021, Class B and Class C apartment complexes traded for record prices. Outside companies poured money into Texas multifamily as they backed away from offices and hotels, while syndicators raised millions from unassuming investors for value-add deals promising huge returns. The buildup left all corners of the market — developers, investors, lenders and brokers — on a precipice. Now, some are about to fall off the cliff. While firms with deep pockets might be able to ride out those temporary disruptions, the same can’t be said for smaller syndicators, operating on $50,000 checks from small-time investors who are now wary of throwing more money after what can look like a sinking ship.”

“J.R. Ellis, an investment sales executive at Greysteel, a real estate advisory firm, has marketed several such properties, but the buyer pool is soft. Many current owners paid such premiums in the run-up that they’re selling for a loss, if they can find a buyer at all. ‘There is a lot of distress in the value-add space specifically,’ Ellis said. ‘No question they are selling for below what they bought for. The question is how much below the loan amount.’ While pricing varies based on submarkets and deal specifics, he estimates many of these properties will sell for a 30 to 35 percent discount from peak pricing.”

Bisnow San Francisco in California. “Gouges left by the pandemic in San Francisco’s real estate market and general economy are slowly healing, but like any deep wound, they’re leaving scars. For property in the city, the marks left behind come in the form of a great reset, bringing values back down to earth after their sky-high climb in the years leading up to the pandemic. Before the pandemic, office rents in San Francisco hit $100 per SF, beating out Midtown Manhattan and well above the national average of $33 per SF at the end of 2019, according to Cushman & Wakefield.”

“Today’s office rents in San Francisco are closer to $70 per SF, according to CBRE. That translates to lower sales prices, with properties trading for $200 to $300 per SF, down from $800 to $1,000 per SF before the pandemic. Deals that serve as examples of these pricing trends are piling up. The building at 350 California St. sold for $200 per SF, down from its pre-pandemic price tag of $800 per SF. The former Wells Fargo Tower at 550 California St. went for $120 per SF, and 201 Spear St. traded for $200 per SF. Low office demand isn’t entirely to blame. Rising interest rates have made once-manageable loan balances untenable for many investors, causing them to default. ‘When loans hit this [real estate-owned] status, it’s generally considered a sign that they can be had at fire sale prices,’ David Putro, head of CRE analytics at Morningstar, told Bisnow.”

From ABC 10. “If you own a home, you probably have a mortgage. Lenders generally require homeowners to have fire insurance, which we’ll refer to as ‘homeowners insurance’ throughout this story. In the past two years, most of the major companies in California’s homeowners insurance market have paused or restricted new business, causing availability to plummet and prices to go up. ABC10 sat down with a group of Tuolumne County homeowners to see how the insurance crisis is affecting them.”

“Cathy Townsend is on the FAIR Plan after getting dropped by two insurance companies. ‘I’m single, divorced. I’m on a fixed income and I don’t know what I’ll do if I can’t afford the house,’ she said, tears filling her eyes. ‘My payment has doubled and I’m not making any more money.’ She recently gave ABC10 an update, saying she changed her deductible in order to make insurance affordable. Elaine Hagen moved to Tuolumne County in 2014. ‘We’ve been canceled by our homeowners insurance at least five times, possibly six,’ she said. ‘The costs keep going up, and I don’t know what folks are going to do. It’s just terrifying.'”

Blog TO in Canada. “There are a handful of trends that show how badly Toronto’s housing market is flopping right now, and the latest may be the most concerning of all. As noted by local mortgage expert Jason Geall, more and more owners are defaulting on their mortgages, leading to an increase in cases of power of sale. ‘Is this going to be the new norm? Seeing ‘power of sale’ on top of for sale signs?’ Geall asked in a video Monday, standing in front of a property in the bougie York Mills area of Toronto. In the background, viewers can see an example of the phenomenon he’s talking about, in this case, for a vacant plot of land that lenders have seized to sell and get their money back.”

“‘We’ve been hearing so much about power of sales going up and up in the last little while — is this the start?’ he adds, referring to a graph showing, per data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, that residential power of sale listings in the GTA broke new records in October. ‘Seeing this type of stuff even in the high end areas is definitely kind of concerning.’ This is just one example of things extremely atypical of our perpetually (and still) overpriced market: major developments put on hold, sales slowing to a trickle and buyers walking away from hefty deposits knowing their finished home won’t be worth what they paid.”

ABC News in Australia. “Apartment buyers caught in a commercial dispute over alleged structural issues say the saga has highlighted gaps in consumer protection. Single mum Bethany Evans put down a $100,000 deposit on a three-bedroom apartment at the beleaguered Shenton Quarter development in Perth, in October 2021. Problems at the project first emerged in March this year, when the CFMEU released vision of cracks in the concrete, which it claimed was evidence of structural issues.”

“Ms Evans told 7.30 it felt like a ‘red flag,’ however the developer assured her that remedial works were normal. She also had a lawyer review her contract and found that there was no way out of it. Work on the site continued and Ms Evans was hopeful she would be living in the million-dollar apartment early in the new year. Those hopes were dashed when workers walked off the site three weeks ago. Ms Evans said she was left in the precarious situation of needing to find her fourth rental property since putting down the apartment deposit. ‘I have bought a promise – not a property, a promise,’ she said. ‘I don’t feel confident about going through with the purchase. I will need to see some really strong validation that there are no structural concerns.'”

“Ms Evans said this left apartment buyers in a vulnerable situation in the event that defects emerged after they had moved in. ‘If the builder should go under, there is no protection on a building like this,’ Ms Evans said. ‘I am not sure I can afford that.'”

From WION. “China is witnessing a spontaneous wave of protests across the country, all thanks to its crumbling property sector. According to Freedom House’s data, more than 1,777 property-related demonstrations have taken place in the tightly monitored country between June 2022 and October 2023. Almost 100 demonstrations are taking place in China every month, with as many as 276 cities witnessing such protests regularly. In August 2023, about 100 workers-led protests took place, three times more than those took place the same month a year earlier.”

“And notably, these are not one-time incidents. According to Nikkei Asia, one in seven protests were linked to past protests, which shows that the Chinese government has failed to address the concerns of suppliers, contractors and construction workers. All of them have gone unpaid for months. On the other hand, millions of homebuyers are also writhing in anger after having channelled all of their investments into unfinished house projects, even as the country’s top developers, including China Evergrande Group and Country Garden Holdings, default on their borrowings.”

“China’s property sector is the backbone of the Chinese economy, contributing more than a quarter of the world’s second-largest economy. But the past few years have been a roller coaster ride. Investments have run dry, the housing market has cooled, which has led to a steep decline in prices. Last year, such protests did bear fruits, when the CCP was forced to abruptly end its draconian Zero Covid policy amidst mounting anger. This year too, the crisis in China’s property sector has tested people’s patience for too long. As the Chinese government continues to adopt a heavy-handed approach towards dissent, and as courts continuously fail to address the grievances of the victims, this wave of protests will only get stronger and more lethal (for CCP) with time.”

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This Post Has 67 Comments

  1. ‘this time last year, if you were looking for a long-term rental in Cape Coral, there were only a few options available. But now, there are hundreds of houses to look at. ‘I looked at the rental market on single-family homes and there’s nearly 500 single-family homes for rent in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral area that are looking for long-term rentals’

    Wa happened to my shortage Sharon?

  2. ‘the buyer pool is soft. Many current owners paid such premiums in the run-up that they’re selling for a loss, if they can find a buyer at all. ‘There is a lot of distress in the value-add space specifically,’ Ellis said. ‘No question they are selling for below what they bought for. The question is how much below the loan amount’

    Well well, it can take a long time for gamblers to get crushed but it’s here. These value add dogs were set loose by Mel Watt and Obamie. I hope they all get crushed. Luxury sinking like a turd in a well too.

  3. ‘The median home price is down 18% in the last 17 months’

    This shows the YOY comparisons going on now don’t tell the true tale. Same with K-da. Some of those igloo clusters are 30-40% down from minor respiratory illness peak. Good thing everybody put 30% down in Austin!

    2. ‘The median home price is down 18% in the last 17 months,’
      I was thinking we were going to be down 20+% in Austin by last summer. Guess I gotta be more patient, maybe go get more popcorn.

      1. I think he’s talking about ‘Georgetown to San Marcos’ which is several markets. I haven’t seen numbers on Hays County, etc, for a while. Last I read those areas were down over 20% and that was months ago.

  4. ‘The feeding frenzy is over,’ Yahn said. ‘The prices are not going up — but they’ve leveled up.’

    Stop lying, realtor. Overpriced shacks are sitting unsold, and those that are selling require price cuts and seller “incentives.”

    1. In my area, list prices have leveled up, but they’re sitting on the market for 2-3 months by now. Prices will have to level down.

  5. ‘That translates to lower sales prices, with properties trading for $200 to $300 per SF, down from $800 to $1,000 per SF before the pandemic. Deals that serve as examples of these pricing trends are piling up. The building at 350 California St. sold for $200 per SF, down from its pre-pandemic price tag of $800 per SF’

    Half off is unrealistic.

      1. Commercial in SF should be worth $0

        I honestly think some of those properties have negative value. They (the bank?) will have to pay some one or give them a subsided loan to take some of these building. Happened at a bank I used to work for when they left a small town.

  6. ‘I looked at the rental market on single-family homes and there’s nearly 500 single-family homes for rent in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral area that are looking for long-term rentals,’ she said.”

    This is the fun part where the STR housing speculators find their long-term rentals sitting vacant month after month because renters feel no obligation to cover the “owner’s” mortgage payments on those shacks.

      1. Gosh, if the Spring Miracle Revival fails to materialize, I fear that millions of STR speculator scum will be forced to throw in the towel and liquidate their alligators for whatever the market will bear. This glut of inventory will further depress shack prices. Someone please hold me & tell me everything is going to be okay.

  8. ‘I’m single, divorced. I’m on a fixed income and I don’t know what I’ll do if I can’t afford the house,’ she said, tears filling her eyes. ‘My payment has doubled and I’m not making any more money’…’We’ve been canceled by our homeowners insurance at least five times, possibly six,’ she said. ‘The costs keep going up, and I don’t know what folks are going to do. It’s just terrifying’

    Cathy, Elaine, calm down take a deep breath. Now walk over to yer fridge, look at all that expensive food and ask yerself: do you have what it takes to be a winnah!?

    1. My (insurance) payment has doubled

      You can thank Governor Gruesome and all his ghouls in Sacramento.

      As to what to do to supplement you “fixed income”, you can get a part time job or some sort of side hustle. I understand that when you say “fixed income” you mean you’re retired (sell homemade Tea Cozies on Etsy?).

      I’m also fixed income, though I collect a fixed salary and am not retired yet. We didn’t get raises this year, though I understand that Social Security is giving you a raise, so count your blessings.

      1. “…You can thank Governor Gruesome…”

        Not only insurance, but utility bills as well.

        My So Cal Edison electric bill has almost tripled since start of pandemic, even though my KWh usage has been stable. Partially because of a scam here in South Orange County in which electricity was going to be sourced from ‘Green’ suppliers, via a insanely complex accounting system that would move imaginary ‘Green’ electrons around the power grid.

        On top of that, the State of California has outlawed natural gas connections for new construction and wants existing owners to give up gas heating and gas stoves.

        On top of that, the City of Irvine has mandated that homeowners need to sort out food scraps and put in a little bucket for separate pickup, for a total of four!!! separate containers. Of course, our monthly trash/recycle/green waste/food scraps collection fees went up also.

        1. “move imaginary ‘Green’ electrons around the power grid”

          Nonsense. There were questions about them on my journeyman electrician’s exam.

          1. My understanding is that DC is electron holes running around in a circle, and AC is an electron hole swaying back and forth like he’s having a bad acid trip and passing the friction energy from the movement on to the next swaying electron hole. Or something.

            I’m sure those imaginary Green electrons are more of a visualization of how electricity is fungible, to make it easier for the bean counters. Say you got a wind turbine, and it sends out a (DC) electron hole. How far do those holes travel before they finally get used up in spinning somebody’s window fan? The farther it travels, the more carbon credits you get. Whatever; I’m sure there are some very highly paid diplomat’s kids in Zurich figuring all this out.

    2. “I’m single, divorced. I’m on a fixed income…”

      Sounds like a dead bedroom, and he upgraded.

      “…I don’t know what I’ll do…”

      Cathy, I know that you’ll pull that D lever in 2024.

  9. ‘I think rates are the biggest driver of this slower pace of sales,’ Kellogg said. ‘It’s really hurting buyers’ purchasing power, and so sellers are forced to reduce prices as a result.’

    Half right. The Fed’s debasement of the currency & resultant inflation far in excess of what our Soviet-style CPI stats say it is is what’s really hurting prospective shack buyers.

  10. ‘The costs keep going up, and I don’t know what folks are going to do. It’s just terrifying.’”

    You’ve lost sight of what’s important here, Elaine: no more mean tweets.

      1. Democrats have convinced everyone that republicans are going to outlaw every form of abortion and birth control. I’m not optimistic for 2024. And no, the election in Argentina isn’t a portent of anything.

          1. You must live in a blue bubble because CNNs viewership is and has been in the toilet for years. Reruns of full house get more viewers than CNN prime time.

    1. Stuart Seldowitz confirmed to The Daily Beast that he was indeed the man recorded.

      Mr. Seldowitz hasn’t received the memo that the tribe is no longer welcomed in the Left.

  15. Am going to be hosting Thanksgiving dinner for extended family, including, sadly, more than a few libtard siblings, nieces, spouses, etc. Wifey firmly vetoed my request to have “FJB” baked into the top crust of the apple pie. At times like these I wish I was an octopus & could bit*ch-slap 8 people all at once.

  16. I read this morning that some cities are experiencing an uptick in price reductions, as much as 18% of listings. Unfortunately, that is not very much since it needs to be closer to double that to bring about a buyer’s markets. It could also be a seasonal blip since listings will be slowing towards Xmas. While there appear to be cracks in the system, it may take some time for the colossus that is residential real estate to pick up downward momentum.

    Things to watch:
    DOMs over 90 days should lead to a price reduction.
    Sales-to-list of 95% and below indicates buyers are achieving discounts. 25-30% of all listings showing price reductions means a buyers market.
    Falling sales means distress generally.
    An uptick in fall throughs, a leading indicator, means lenders are pulling back and tightening criteria.
    An uptick in defaults is another leading indicator. Foreclosures means we’re already there.
    Inventory needs to be circa 6 months supply to establish equilibrium.
    Falling prices over several months is a clear indication the market is correcting, and will continue to do so until it finds a bottom based on fundamentals of affordability, short of any government or industry intervention to prop up the market. Beware average price, which are notoriously, unreliable. Median is not much better. Repeat sales is best but very lagging. As important are where declines are happening, eg 75th, median, 25th percentiles.

    If you can tick most of the above boxes, we’re heading in the right direction.

    1. “DOMs over 90 days should lead to a price reduction.”

      Either that, or a withdrawn listing.

      Either way, the reason for DOMs over 90 days is sellers who are unwilling or unable to reduce their reservation price to current market value.

    2. “…short of any government or industry intervention to prop up the market.”

      I hear the Chinese government is intervening to prop up their real estate market. How is that working out for them?

  17. [DANGER! CAUTION! WARNING! This non-housing post may trigger the oh-so delicate emotions of an unduly and over-sensitive touchy-feelie environmental snowflake. Sorry, no safe space is provided; one must deal with the trauma (and the drama) on their own.]

    Renewables facing “Enron-style collapse” says Venture Capitalist — Sustainability has become a dirty word

    https://joannenova.com.au/2023/11/renewables-facing-enron-style-collapse-says-venture-capitalist-sustainability-has-become-a-dirty-word/

    Word is spreading openly of the awful third quarter results in wind and solar power, and in EV’s. Morningstar noted some $14 billion dollars moved out of sustainability funds in the last quarter even before the dismal results were announced. This is only a small part of the $300 billion total, but it’s a big bad shift in momentum in a sector that is supposed to be going exponential and theoretically “the next big thing”.

    Two years ago funds were tagging anything they could with Sustainability. But the term has become a dirty word, and so has ESG. Funds that were enthusiastically adding these green terms to their titles are now dropping them and backing away slowly…

    With major daily business newspapers now reporting the bad news it’s hard to see what will stop the slide — only massive subsidies would do that (temporarily), but the US has already done that with the bizarrely named Inflation Reduction Act.

    But make no mistake, there is a $300 billion industry begging for help and a lot of politicians who don’t want to admit their renewables push was an economic disaster. The German government has bailed out Siemens, and the UK government is throwing money at wind power to try to get investors back. It’s like communism by stealth. The government demands industries do magical things, then when they fail, it saves them, making industry increasingly serve governments instead of customers. But the money, or the system can’t go on forever…

    Wall Street’s ESG Craze Is Fading
    By Shane Shifflett, Wall Street Journal

    Wall Street rushed to embrace sustainable investing just a few years ago. Now it is quietly closing funds or scrubbing their names after disappointing returns that have investors cashing out billions.

    The third quarter was the first time more sustainable funds liquidated or removed ESG criteria from their investment practices than were added, according to Morningstar. That is a reversal from not that long ago, when companies were rebranding faltering funds to cash in on the billions of dollars flowing into sustainable investment products.

    At least five other funds also announced they would drop their ESG mandates this year, while another 32 sustainable funds will close, according to data compiled by Morningstar and The Wall Street Journal.

    One venture capitalist says Net Zero policies are political pipedreams, and Venture Capitalists knew years ago that industries dependent on government handouts might collapse like Enron:

    Net-zero policies colliding with economic reality
    Henry Geraedts, Financial Post

    As early as 2018, key industry executives warned that the renewables sector risked an Enron-style collapse because of its insatiable subsidy-dependence. That unwinding is now happening across the wind, solar and EV industries, and it’s driven by dynamics unlikely to be reversed.

    As demand falters, skyrocketing costs are outstripping even massive subsidies.

    Faced with crippling technical problems, growing warranty exposure and companies like Shell walking away from multi-billion-dollar projects, industry leaders Orsted, Vestas and Siemens Gamesa are in structural financial crisis, their shares down by 30 to 60 per cent. Siemens Energy’s recent request for a $16-billion bailout prompted BP’s head of renewable energy to say the industry was “broken.”

    What we are witnessing are not bumps in the road to an inevitable clean energy transition but evidence of socio-economic realities unravelling the politics of net zero — including the fiction that we must urgently and radically re-engineer our societies to stop a supposed climate catastrophe that in fact isn’t.

    Henry Geraedts worked in venture capital internationally. His PhD is in international political economy, with an interest in strategic aspects of energy and technology.

    Three weeks ago the head of renewables for BP used the word “broken”:
    BP Executive Describes The U.S. Offshore Wind Industry As “Fundamentally Broken”
    Reuters, Nov 1

    The offshore wind industry, one of the fastest growing energy sectors, has recently suffered a string of major setbacks due to equipment reliability issues, supply chain problems and sharp cost increases.

    Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath, BP’s head of gas and low carbon, said that problems in the United States included permitting, the time lag between signing power purchase agreements and projects being built and a lack of inflationary adjustment mechanisms.

    “Ultimately, offshore wind in the U.S. is fundamentally broken,” Dotzenrath told an FT Energy Transition conference in London.

    The profit margins are so thin, and the approval process is so long and complex (because they use so much space), that inflation is eating their returns before they even start.

    2. Word is spreading openly of the awful third quarter results in wind and solar power, and in EV’s

      Not just EV’s though their sales are especially bad. Cars, trux and SUVs are piling up at dealerships. I’m starting to see $3000 rebates offered on some models, which is no incentive given how much prices went up during the time of minor respiratory illness.

  18. “‘I looked at the rental market on single-family homes and there’s nearly 500 single-family homes for rent in the Fort Myers-Cape Coral area that are looking for long-term rentals,’ she said.”

    Sounds like the investors overbought, and now are getting burned by a glut of homes for rent at prices that won’t cover ownership costs.

  19. Treasury bonds erase this year’s losses amid rebound from historic collapse
    Filip De Mott Nov 21, 2023, 10:30 AM PST
    Treasury check
    wsmahar/Getty Images
    Treasury bonds have erased this year’s losses amid a rebound from their historic collapse.

    After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly flat.
    The rally comes as optimism grows that the Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and will pivot to cuts next year.
    …
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/treasury-bond-market-losses-historic-collapse-crash-yields-us-debt-2023-11

      1. Bloomberg
        Bond Traders Boost US Recession Bets as Growth Falters
        Garfield Reynolds and Anchalee Worrachate
        Wed, November 22, 2023 at 6:58 AM PST·3 min read

        (Bloomberg) — Treasury investors are turning increasingly skeptical the Federal Reserve will deliver a soft landing for the US economy next year, elevating concern of a looming recession over the risks posed by inflation and a swelling budget deficit.
        …
        https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-boost-us-recession-093741657.html

      2. Marketwatch
        These two leading indicators suggest a U.S. recession has already begun, according to Wall Street’s favorite permabear
        Published: Nov. 22, 2023 at 3:07 p.m. ET
        By Joseph Adinolfi
        SocGen’s Albert Edwards is back with a warning about the U.S. economy. Agence France-Presse/Getty Image

        Wall Street’s favorite permabear is back with a warning for anybody who believes the U.S. economy is destined for a “soft landing” in 2024.

        In his latest note to Société Générale clients, Albert Edwards, the Société Générale global strategist widely followed for his bearish takes on the economy and markets, highlighted two leading employment indicators that have preceded economic downturns in the not-too-distant past.
        …

        1. …
          These should help convince skeptics that the recession that Wall Street has been waiting for since early 2022 might still be in the cards, he added.

          Firstly, employment in logistics jobs like trucking has cratered this year as pandemic-related overhangs in demand for goods have persisted.

          “The logistics industry happens to be one of the best cyclical canaries to have down your coal mine. We have previously shown that falls in trucking jobs normally precede recessions,” Edwards said.

          But if that isn’t convincing enough, Edwards pointed to the temporary-help subset of services employment, which has also seen a decisive downturn this year, mirroring a pattern that played out ahead of recessions in 2001 and 2007.

          “Before the 2001 and 2007 recessions, the temporary help series turned decisively down some 12 months ahead of recession. Hence the soft-landing adherents should be worried that it has been sliding relentlessly since October 2022. Adding 12 months or so to that that takes us to… um…today,” he said.
          …
          https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231122406/these-two-leading-indicators-suggest-a-us-recession-has-already-begun-according-to-wall-streets-favorite-permabear

  21. Americans Increasingly Tapping Into Their Retirement Accounts To Make Ends Meet

    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/americans-increasingly-tapping-their-retirement-accounts-make-ends-meet

    “Resilient” American consumers are digging into their retirement funds to pay their bills…

    Mainstream financial pundits, politicians, and Fed officials keep telling us the economy is strong because Americans keep spending money. They just assume this is a sign of economic strength without ever asking exactly how they’re paying for all of this “robust” spending.

    The fact is Americans have blown through their savings, they’re maxing out their credit cards, and now they’re digging into their retirement savings to maintain this involuntary spending spree caused by rampant price inflation.

    As prices skyrocketed last year, Americans blew through their savings to make ends meet. Aggregate savings peaked at $2.1 trillion in August 2021. As of June, the San Francisco Fed estimated that aggregate savings had dropped to $190 billion.

    In other words, Americans ate away $1.9 trillion in savings in just two years.

    Then they turned to plastic.

    Credit card balances increased by 4.7% to a record $1.08 trillion in the third quarter of this year.

    Year-on-year, credit card debt spiked by $154 billion. That was the biggest annual increase since 1999.

    Now Americans are raiding their retirements.

    As Bloomberg reporter Alex Tanzi put it, “Americans are increasingly tapping their retirement savings to cover housing and medical bills amid higher cost-of-living pressures, according to data released Monday from Fidelity Investments.”

    According to data released by Fidelity Investments, around 2.3% of workers took a hardship withdrawal from their retirement accounts last quarter. That was up from 1.8% a year earlier. According to Fidelity, the top two reasons given for the uptick were to avoid foreclosure or eviction, and for medical expenses.

    Meanwhile, 2.8% of 401(k) retirement account participants took a loan against their account in Q3. Currently, about 1 in 6 (17.6%) of workers has an outstanding loan.

    The average 401(k) balance came in at $107,700 in Q3, down 4% from the second quarter. Over the last five years, fund levels have remained stable.

    In a separate Fidelity survey, 8 out of 10 workers said price inflation and the rising cost of living are causing them stress.

    It should go without saying that blowing through your savings, running up credit card debt at over 20%, and raiding your retirement to pay the rent isn’t a sign of economic prosperity. It’s a sign of desperation. And there’s a lot of it out there.

    1. blowing through your savings, running up credit card debt at over 20%, and raiding your retirement to pay the rent

      I’m still saving, have no credit card debt and don’t pay rent. My retirement account is growing.

      The other guy must be in much worse shape than average.

    2. I heard this on the radio and the reporter said the guvnah has ‘asked social media’ to censor something. Basically a nothing event and immediate calls to violate our rights.

  23. I’m here to block EU ! Estonian Farage thrashes MEPs and is happy they hate him: Best thing ever!
    Publicae
    4 hours ago EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

    Tensions boiled over in the European Parliament during a debate on proposed EU treaty revisions.

    Estonian MEP Jaak Madison called his colleagues “crazy federalists” and ridiculed Dutch MEP Sophia In ‘t Veld who will probably not be able to return to the European Parliament after next year’s elections.

    In ‘t Veld left the progressive Left D66 party she intended to join the Euro-minded Volt Party. But, in an ironic turn of events, Volt has rejected her candidacy for the European Union elections next year, which might prove the final nail in the coffin for her European Parliament career.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGX8OXaTi0w

    1:25.

  24. Q. What day of the week is it?

    A. It is Wednesday.

    Q. Is today an odd day or an even one?

    A. If is the twenty second day of the month which makes it an even one.

    Okay, that explains the shift in this “scientific” viewpoint:

    Why eating red meat and dairy could actually prevent cancer.

    https://studyfinds.org/red-meat-dairy-fight-cancer/

    CHICAGO — Eating red meat and consuming dairy might aid in cancer prevention, a surprising new study reveals. Researchers found that trans-vaccenic acid (TVA), a fatty acid in beef, lamb, and dairy, enhances the ability of immune cells to combat tumors.

    This study also indicates that higher TVA levels in the blood correlate with better responses to immunotherapy, proposing TVA as a potential nutritional supplement to augment cancer treatments.

    “There are many studies trying to decipher the link between diet and human health, and it’s very difficult to understand the underlying mechanisms because of the wide variety of foods people eat. But if we focus on just the nutrients and metabolites derived from food, we begin to see how they influence physiology and pathology,” says Jing Chen, PhD, the Janet Davison Rowley Distinguished Service Professor of Medicine at UChicago and one of the senior authors of the study, in a media release. “By focusing on nutrients that can activate T cell responses, we found one that actually enhances anti-tumor immunity by activating an important immune pathway.”

    Bla, bla, bla. Stay tuned for the next astounding “scientific” finding.

    2. Crypto probably can’t survive, but Bitcoin might. The idea of Bitcoin is pretty strong. As long as there is a single satoshi on a pen drive in a coffee can in someone underwear drawer, there’s hope. Meanwhile, I have yet to see one single instance of “full” adoption of Bitcoin.

  29. ‘Five price reductions later, the sellers finally got a contract Sept. 5 for $350,000, $15,000 less than the $365,000 list price by then’

    More red hotness!

  31. High mortgage rates push home sales decline closer to Great Recession levels
    Jim Sergent
    USA TODAY

    Home sales numbers released Tuesday offered more sobering news: The number of existing homes sold continued their fall to levels last seen during the fallout of the Great Recession. At the same time, prices remain stubbornly high amid the highest mortgage rates in 23 years.

    The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales in October dropped below economists projections to 3.79 million. The median price last month ticked up to $391,800 – a 3.4% increase from 2022 but a 6.3% decline from September.

    Since 2000, annualized home sales figures averaged about 5.3 million each month. Only three other months – all following the 2007-08 financial crisis – registered lower sales than October, including July 2010 which set the low watermark of 3.45 million.
    …
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2023/11/21/home-sales-decline-housing-bust-level/71618686007/

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