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The Madness Is Over

A report from the Bradenton Herald in Florida. “The median price for existing single-family houses in the Bradenton area fell 12.8% to $479,000 in October, the largest decline this year. It was also the first time since February 2022 that the median fell below $500,000. ‘Inventory has been on this steady increase since 2022, and while we’ve hit the highest it’s been all year, it’s still not quite back to pre-pandemic levels,’ said Brian Tresidder, president of the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, of the condo market. The supply of condos and townhouses in Manatee County was up 65% to a 3.8-month supply, compared to 2.3-month supply a year ago. For single-family homes, the month’s supply of inventory in Sarasota increased year-over-year by 77.3% to a 3.9-month supply. ‘The good news is that we’ve been trending upward and we’re getting closer to the benchmark for a balanced market,’ Tresidder said.”

The Dallas Morning News. “Dallas-Fort Worth was among the less than 20% of U.S. metro areas that didn’t see higher home prices in the last quarter. With a median sales price of $385,700, the cost of single-family homes in North Texas was slightly less than the nationwide $406,900 nationwide sales price. D-FW home prices are down from a peak of $408,200 in the mid-2022 Realtors price report. ‘Following the big price changes during the last several years, it’s natural to witness momentary swings in prices,’ Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun said in the report. ‘Some markets that experienced sizable home price gains since 2020 have turned lower, resulting in temporary relief for prospective home buyers.’ Along with the price declines in D-FW, median home prices in the third quarter dropped by 10.3% in Austin, 4.8% in Jackson, Miss. and 3.6% in Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, Fla.”

The Oaklandside in California. “If you couldn’t already tell from all of the cranes and construction sites, Oakland has experienced a building boom in recent years. The majority of these new residences were built downtown and in surrounding neighborhoods like the Jack London District and Uptown, in part because these areas are zoned to allow developers to construct the largest buildings in the city. We repeatedly hear the same question from readers of The Oaklandside: ‘Are people even living in those luxury high-rises?’ Rumors that these buildings are half-empty swirl, aided by the fact that most of them advertise flashy move-in deals, offering a two- or three-month discount on rent for new tenants. ‘Those buildings have almost 50% vacancy,’ one person claimed in response to our post on Reddit looking for people to talk to for this story.”

“Berkeley resident Jeff Baker began analyzing occupancy data for East Bay apartment buildings after seeing people claim that some were near-empty. ‘I have watched a lot of these buildings try to lease up, from the moment they were first built, to the present,’ Baker said in an interview. There are two typical trends he’s noticed, with the more common being the Lydian’s process—’being aggressive about leasing up in a year.’ ‘The other archetype is the Atlas,’ he said, referring to the unmissable 40-story tower on 14th Street. The second-tallest building in Oakland, with 633 apartments, the Atlas opened in 2020. ‘That one’s never really leased up, and it’s currently advertising 100 vacancies,’ Baker said.”

“Many residents brought up the move-in deals commonly offered by new buildings: ‘Live 12 weeks rent-free,’ ‘move-in bonus,’ ‘up to two months free.’ Adeeb Djawad, who’s a lawyer, called the deals ‘the biggest source of bullshit that goes on with these buildings.’ He believes the landlords know they couldn’t actually rent the apartments for the supposed full cost, so they pretend they’re offering a ‘discount’ when the reduced price is the true market rate. Natasha Watkins, a tenant at 1717 Webster, said her building is pretty full but has frequent turnover. ‘I never recognize anyone,’ she said. ‘I imagine because there are so many sign-up deals, it would be easier to move elsewhere.’ But she acknowledged that her landlord has lowered rents upon renewal for some of her neighbors.”

“The Whatsapp group is going strong at ZO, a tower on 17th Street that helped kick off the building boom. When management changed a year or two ago, things went ‘downhill,’ said a tenant who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation. The pool has been closed for six months, despite tour guides advertising it to prospective renters, he said, the staff turns over frequently, and the heating and cooling system is ineffective. He’s not sold on downtown living either. ‘It doesn’t feel like a super safe long-term place,’ he said. ‘We’ve had multiple shootings on our block and witnessed so many cars being bipped. If we had kids we probably wouldn’t want to be here.'”

The News Tribune in Washington. “A multi-building, office-retail-apartment development in Tacoma remains stalled, with no indication when it might restart. Tacoma Town Center, a 6.4-acre property bordered by South 21st to South 23rd streets from Jefferson to Tacoma avenues, has encountered delays, liens and legal challenges. The undeveloped parcels are now two years behind in property taxes for a total of more than $279,000, according to county tax records. Projected construction deadlines also have been missed. The area’s apartment-construction market has seen some high-profile projects take a hit following a boom in recent years. On Friday, the unfinished Tacoma Trax, 415 E. 25th St., was sold to the project’s lender at a foreclosure auction along with a related apartment property in Kent.”

“In July, Harbor Custom Development pulled the plug on plans for a luxury apartment proposal near the Stadium District. And at least three parcels slated for multifamily units remain undeveloped at Point Ruston, as extensive ongoing debt litigation involving those and some other parcels continue. Commercial real estate information company CoStar this summer reported that 2023 had seen ‘one of the slowest starts to apartment construction in a decade,’ from Seattle to San Diego. Higher interest rates and rising construction costs were among factors cited in the coastal slowdown.”

From WCPO. “Jim Tobin is the CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. He tells us the real estate climate is making things tough across the board. ‘Builders are trying to be as creative as they can to help people get into a home.’ In September, Tobin says some builders started slashing prices and offering perks and incentives to encourage sales. The average discount: 6%. ‘There’s product out there and builders want to move it.'”

CTV News in Canada. “The last year and a half have been an emotional roller coaster for engaged couple Joe Jennison and Alicia Murrell. Looking to buy their first home, the couple sought a new build in Guelph, Ont. but were unsuccessful in two lotteries by developer Fusion Homes. The couple says closing on their first home, in the ‘Sora at The Glade’ development, was a major life moment. ‘So we went: ‘That’s it, we made it. We got our house.’ We were super excited,’ Jennison said. The couple says their relationship with Fusion Homes quickly started to sour not long after closing. ‘It was probably a few months later they started releasing incentives because they weren’t selling their homes,’ Murrell said.”

“According to the couple, by the time they were ready to move in, the incentives had reached $100,000 off the sale price and there were offers for around $100,000 in free upgrades. They say these programs devalued their home by $200,000. ‘It’s not the fact that we aren’t getting anything at all and we’re stomping our feet and upset saying, ‘We want this too,’ Jennison said. ‘It’s the fact that they’ve devalued our house before we’ve even literally looked at it.'”

“After negotiations, Murrell and Jennison agree to forfeit their $141,000 down payment, and they say Fusion Homes agreed not pursue legal action. Initially Murrell says the feeling was relief. ‘And that’s sad that we were relieved to lose $140,000,’ Murrell said. ‘I was happy when we got that email, I’m like, ‘Okay, we’re out, they are keeping our down payment, I’m ecstatic.’ That feeling later turned to frustration and resentment. ‘It’s a very tough and bitter pill to swallow because Fusion walks away with all of our money and they get to resell the house and make even more money,’ Jennison said.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Real estate buyers who look beyond Toronto to some of the Golden Horseshoe’s small towns and suburbs have been eyeing the market with extreme caution this fall. Matthew Regan, broker with Royal LePage Real Estate Services, says inventory began to swell in September after homeowners listed their houses for sale in the late spring and summer – just as buyers pulled the emergency brake. Meanwhile, a cohort of homeowners who delayed listing during that period planted a ‘for sale’ sign in September. ‘You’ve got the people who wanted to sell but couldn’t, plus the people who were holding off. They all entered the market in the fall,’ he says.”

“Mr. Regan says the vacation home market is seeing an increase in sales by owners who purchased a cottage or country home during the pandemic. Many used a ‘home equity line of credit’ tied to their principal residence when interest rates were ultralow, he says. Now that interest rates have risen, many of those owners in many Ontario places such as Collingwood, Muskoka and Peterborough, are stretched. ‘I don’t know if panic selling is the word but certainly pressure selling,’ he says of people trying to lighten their debt burdens.”

“Shawn Lackie, real estate agent with Coldwell Banker R.M.R. Real Estate, says Durham Region, east of Toronto, is tipping towards a buyer’s market. Mr. Lackie expects the market to remain slow in the coming months. ‘The madness is over,’ says Mr. Lackie. ‘We’re probably two years away from feeling the full fallout of what happened during the pandemic. They all ran out and bought in Cobourg, Port Perry and Uxbridge when they could work from home,’ says Mr. Lackie. ‘Now they’ve found it’s not what they expected it to be – or the boss wants them back in the office.'”

“Mr. Lackie says many people can’t sell the house today for what they paid for it two or three years ago. Mr. Lackie says sellers are in a bind now if they set their asking price too high. Mr. Lackie says he understands the dilemma for sellers who are attached to their home and affix a certain value to it. But he cautions that they make a mistake when they decide to list at an inflated asking price just to test the market. ‘If you overlist and you don’t get showings, literally after two weeks you’re chasing the market down. You’re starting out behind and you stay behind.'”

The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has put home buyers and businesses on notice that further interest rate pain is on the way, saying inflation is homegrown and being pushed up by strong demand for everything from haircuts to dentistry. She warned that the growing prices of services, such as haircuts, were a substantial concern as they were being supported by strong demand. ‘Hairdressers and dentists, dining out, sporting and other recreational activities – the prices of all these services are rising strongly. This reflects domestic economic conditions and is an indication that aggregate demand is sufficiently greater than aggregate supply to sustain these price increases,’ she said.”

“The bank this month took the official cash rate to a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent. Since starting to tighten monetary policy in May last year, the cumulative impact of its rate rises have increased the repayments on a $600,000 mortgage by $1600 a month. Bullock admitted she was receiving letters from Australians struggling with cost of living pressures, with low-income households suffering the most at present. But she held out little hope the bank would reverse its policy settings any time soon. ‘While the (bank) board recognises there is a wide diversity of experience, the bank’s statutory objectives are economy-wide outcomes, and our key tool – the interest rate – is a blunt one. The board must therefore set its policy to serve the welfare of Australians collectively,’ she said.”

Related Posts

Is This Going To Crush The Market?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MVMeOS3A5w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-xflBndzZ8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0EydtajeP8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JgxhfRixlI

This Post Has 82 Comments

  2. ‘They say these programs devalued their home by $200,000. ‘It’s not the fact that we aren’t getting anything at all and we’re stomping our feet and upset saying, ‘We want this too’

    You have to stomp yer little feets Alicia, it’s FB 101.

    2. “stomping our feet”

      LOLZ@ seeing an actual quote of this in an article.

      Alicia, just take Caitlyn from Portland’s (remember her?) advice and tell yourself “you gotta roll with it”

  3. “The median price for existing single-family houses in the Bradenton area fell 12.8% to $479,000 in October, the largest decline this year.

    Is that a lot?

    1. No. It is not a lot.
      Prices tripled in 3 years. A minuscule number is not even worth mentioning. 12%. What a laugh.

  4. ‘Builders are trying to be as creative as they can to help people get into a home.’ In September, Tobin says some builders started slashing prices and offering perks and incentives to encourage sales. The average discount: 6%. ‘There’s product out there and builders want to move it’

    That’s the spirit Jim! Fook those previous buyers, they’re probably still stuffing expensive food in their pie holes.

  5. In September, Tobin says some builders started slashing prices and offering perks and incentives to encourage sales. The average discount: 6%.

    I’ll wait until those shacks go under the auctioneer’s hammer, and true price discovery asserts itself.

  6. ‘Since starting to tighten monetary policy in May last year, the cumulative impact of its rate rises have increased the repayments on a $600,000 mortgage by $1600 a month. Bullock admitted she was receiving letters from Australians struggling with cost of living pressures, with low-income households suffering the most at present. But she held out little hope the bank would reverse its policy settings any time soon. ‘While the (bank) board recognises there is a wide diversity of experience, the bank’s statutory objectives are economy-wide outcomes, and our key tool – the interest rate – is a blunt one. The board must therefore set its policy to serve the welfare of Australians collectively’

    You tell em Michele, we’re all in this together, they just need to quit eating and become winnahs!

  7. ‘It’s a very tough and bitter pill to swallow because Fusion walks away with all of our money and they get to resell the house and make even more money,’ Jennison said.”

    If stupid didn’t hurt, fools would never learn, Alicia.

  8. ‘I don’t know if panic selling is the word but certainly pressure selling,’ he says of people trying to lighten their debt burdens.”

    Die, speculator scum.

  9. Bullock admitted she was receiving letters from Australians struggling with cost of living pressures, with low-income households suffering the most at present.

    Ben, please contact Ms. Bullock & offer to have HBB regulars write back to those FBs offering words of wisdom about how to cope with those cost of living pressures. Like reminding them food is a luxury for winnahs.

  10. The board must therefore set its policy to serve the welfare of Australians collectively,’ she said.”

    Central bankers “serve the welfare” of just one segment of society: the oligarchs & plutocrats.

  12. 20 Million Pre-sold Homes Rotten-ended with $266 Billion Lost, Owners Stand up to Protest
    China Observer
    14 hours ago

    In our previous report, we highlighted the plight of a young couple who unfortunately purchased an unfinished property. This post-90s couple, named Liangliang and Li Jun, took a loan in November 2021 to buy an off-plan apartment in Zhengzhou Sunac City. However, in the summer of 2022, the Sunac City project halted construction, falling into an unfinished crisis. Despite having no home to move into, the couple still faced hefty mortgage payments, leading them on a long journey of appealing for their rights.

    On the afternoon of November 15th, Liangliang and Li Jun went to the Sunac City sales office again to assert their rights and to demand the 20,000 yuan cashback previously promised to them. Instead, they were assaulted.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrDKwa9jU7M

    19:20.

      1. The Irish PM is a homosexual Indian
        The British PM is a Hindu Indian
        The Scottish First Minister is a Muslim Pakistani

        See a pattern?

        That said, the Dutch elections were refreshing. Will France and Germany also throw off their yokes? Or will they eventually choose foreigners to rule over them?

  15. Finance ·Real estate
    ‘To buy or not to buy, that is the question’: BofA reveals rent is cheaper than mortgages in all but two of 97 major metros
    BY Alena Botros and Nick Lichtenberg
    November 25, 2023 at 4:00 AM PST
    Bank of America economists found renting was cheaper that buying in nearly all major metros.
    Getty Images

    This housing market has Bank of America economists in a Shakespearean mood about the eternal debate: The slings and arrows of buying versus renting. In a recently released Hamlet-esque research note, “To buy or not to buy, that is the question,” BofA economists found that buying, to paraphrase the prince of Denmark, is an outrageous fortune these days.
    …
    https://fortune.com/2023/11/25/is-it-better-to-buy-rent-home-housing-market-bofa/

    1. Cheryl Mandel and her home in Florida

      I would love to have a end unit home like that…ground floor no steps and no one above me, 2 bedrooms and nice yard, I actually had a place like that in North Charleston SC in a condo complex….

  17. Army invites back soldiers discharged for refusing COVID-19 vaccine

    By Social Links forCaitlin Doornbos
    Published Nov. 22, 2023, 4:14 p.m. ET

    WASHINGTON – Nearly a year after Congress forced the Pentagon to rescind its mandate requiring all troops to receive the coronavirus vaccine, 19 soldiers have rejoined the Army after they were discharged for refusing the shot, The Post has exclusively learned.

    https://nypost.com/2023/11/22/news/army-invites-back-soldiers-discharged-for-refusing-covid-vaccine/

      1. The U.S. Army has had to disable comments for most of its tweets, because the replies are overwhelmingly negative, and scathing, especially from the troops forced out because they refused to take the Jab.

        1. To be honest, I don’t see cosplaying gamma men enlisting. Sure, the possibility of being a tool of oppression against deplorables must be tempting, but even they know that the deplorables will shoot back, and have vey good aim. As Mickey Mouse remarked in Who Framed Roger Rabbit: “You could get killed!”

          Much safer to play out the fantasies on an X-Box. Plus they can always join Antifa, where there is no punishment for deserting when the going gets tough.

    1. Bloomberg
      Markets
      China Housing Woes Worsen as Prices Fall Most in Eight Years
      – Homebuyers are deterred by uncertain outlook, analyst says
      – Property slump is deepening despite stimulus measures
      China’s New Home Prices Fall Most in Eight Years
      WATCH: Prices of new homes in China fell the most in eight years last month in a sign the property slump continues to worsen.
      Russell Ward reports.Source:
      By Bloomberg News
      November 15, 2023 at 5:40 PM PST
      Updated on November 15, 2023 at 6:48 PM PST

      China home prices fell the most in eight years in October, signaling the property slump is worsening even after the government ramped up efforts to revive demand.

      New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, declined 0.38% last month from September, when they dropped 0.3%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Thursday. The decrease was the steepest since February 2015.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-16/china-housing-gloom-worsens-as-prices-fall-most-in-eight-years#xj4y7vzkg

    2. Bloomberg
      Economics
      Markets
      House Prices Are Falling in Most Parts of the UK, Zoopla Says
      – Four in every five local areas declined in September
      – BOE hikes, cost-of-living crunch are straining would-be buyers
      By Damian Shepherd
      October 29, 2023 at 5:01 PM PDT

      House prices are declining in the overwhelming majority of the UK, as stubbornly high mortgage costs start to bleed into values.

      Four in every five local areas saw year-on-year price declines in September, according to property portal Zoopla. That’s up from about 1 in 20 as recently as six months ago, showing buyers and sellers are starting to adapt to the full force of higher interest rates. The figures are based on analysis of house sales in 378 local authorities such as London boroughs and county councils.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-30/house-prices-are-falling-in-most-parts-of-the-uk-zoopla-says#xj4y7vzkg

    3. Housing News
      House prices falling in most major German cities
      House prices falling in most major German cities
      23 November 2023, by Abi Carter

      A new study has found that house prices are falling in almost all major German cities – in places by more than 10 percent year-on-year – as demand across the German housing market plummets.

      The average sale price of an owner-occupied apartment between July and September 2023 fell by 10,5 percent compared to the same period in the previous year, according to a new report from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Prices for detached and semi-detached houses were also significantly down – by 12,1 percent and 24 percent within a year, respectively.

      According to the report, prices for owner-occupied flats dropped in almost all of the biggest cities in Germany. Year-on-year, sale prices were down 17 percent in Düsseldorf, 15 percent in Stuttgart, and more than 10 percent in Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich.

      The quarter-on-quarter results also show drops – in Frankfurt, sale prices fell by 1,6 percent between quarters two and three of 2023. In Stuttgart, they fell by 1,9 percent and in Berlin they fell by a more moderate 0,8 percent. Düsseldorf showed the strongest decline at 6,6 percent.

      Outside of the seven biggest cities, dips were also apparent in Leipzig (-4 percent), Duisburg (-4,4 percent), Münster (-6,2 percent) and Erfurt (-9,2 percent).
      …
      https://www.iamexpat.de/housing/real-estate-news/house-prices-falling-most-major-german-cities

      1. Markets
        German home prices to plunge further; no respite from surging rents
        By Indradip Ghosh
        November 24, 2023 2:46 AM PST
        Updated 2 days ago
        Berlin’s renters face high price misery as housing crisis deepens
        Apartments are illuminated inside residential buildings at the bank of Berlin-Spandauer-Schifffahrtskanal in Berlin, Germany, November 10, 2023. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner/File Photo

        BENGALURU, Nov 24 (Reuters) – German home prices will fall more than previously thought this year and next as high interest rates sap demand, according to analysts in a Reuters poll who expect the supply of affordable homes to worsen and ownership to decline in years ahead.

        Once-booming property prices in Europe’s largest economy have declined over 10% since they peaked last year as the European Central Bank hiked interest rates by 450 basis points in just 15 months, ending an about decade-long era of rock-bottom borrowing costs.

        Those high interest rates and elevated living costs through soaring inflation in recent years have not only forced many households to choose renting over owning a home, it has also led to the worst crisis in the German property sector in decades.

        With some German property developers filing for insolvency, construction activity has dropped over a third from a year ago.

        The median view from the Nov. 15-23 Reuters poll of 14 property experts forecast average home prices to drop 8.0% this year and 2.8% next, steeper than the predicted 5.6% fall in 2023 and no growth in 2024 in an August survey.

        “Higher interest rates forced about half of all potential buyers out of the housing market … and therefore will lead to price reductions in the German housing market in this and the next few years,” said Sebastian Schnejdar, senior real estate analyst at BayernLB.

        “Moreover, there was a significant rise in the overheads for heating, electricity and communal fees, which have also increased the costs of housing for homeowners.”

        That bleak outlook was despite the government recently announcing a 45 billion euro ($47 billion) support package for the property sector and measures to encourage house building, including tax incentives.

        With overall economic activity expected to remain weak over the coming quarters, it could take a while for the property sector to recover.

        The euro zone’s commercial property sector could also struggle for years, posing a threat to the banks and investors who financed it, the ECB said recently.

        LAND OF TENANTS

        Although 11 of 14 analysts who replied to an extra question said purchasing affordability for first-time homebuyers would improve over the coming year, 10 of 14 contributors said the supply of affordable homes would worsen over the coming 2-3 years.

        Meanwhile, more are moving into rented homes, putting pressure on the market and rents are rising faster than salaries.

        In the capital, Berlin, where cheap apartments were abundant as recently as a decade ago, the vacancy rate is less than 1%.

        The median view of 12 property experts forecast average home rental prices to rise 4.0% or more until 2026.

        Still, the proportion of home ownership to renters will decrease over the coming five years, according to 11 of 14 analysts. Three said it would increase.

        “In the era of low interest rates, home ownership in Germany had become more popular but even if compared with most other European countries, Germany remains the land of tenants,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.

        “Looking ahead, the new (higher) interest rate environment will make it impossible for more people to buy property. As a result, the trend of the last decade from tenants to landlords is over. Moreover, immigration should push up the demand for rental properties.”
        …
        https://www.reuters.com/markets/german-home-prices-plunge-further-no-respite-surging-rents-2023-11-24/

    4. Economy
      Published November 22, 2023 12:48pm EST
      A housing market price drop ‘only seen a handful of times’ is coming in 2024, Morgan Stanley says
      Home prices could drop 3% next year amid decline in borrowing costs
      By Megan Henney FOXBusiness
      DFW housing and macro econ analyst Amy Nixon discusses the future of the housing market on ‘Making Money.’ video
      Today’s housing market does not compare to the 1980s recession-era: Amy Nixon

      DFW housing and macro econ analyst Amy Nixon discusses the future of the housing market on ‘Making Money.’

      The astronomical rise in mortgage rates over the past year has put homeownership out of reach for millions of Americans, but the housing market could soon face an unprecedented improvement in affordability, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.

      “We think we are poised for an improvement in affordability that we have only seen a handful of times over the past ~35 years,” they wrote in a recent analyst note. “We expect home prices to fall modestly as housing activity picks up versus 2023, with new home sales outpacing existing sales, but think the strong fundamentals of existing homeowners will prevent sizable corrections.”
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-market-price-drop-only-seen-handful-times-is-coming-2024-morgan-stanley-says

      1. “…but think the strong fundamentals of existing homeowners will prevent sizable corrections.”

        They conveniently forgot to consider historic levels of penetration by highly leveraged investors who are likely to dump properties en masse, once it is clear that prices are tumbling.

        No investor wants to HODL an underwater falling knife.

  19. ‘called the deals ‘the biggest source of bullshit that goes on with these buildings.’ He believes the landlords know they couldn’t actually rent the apartments for the supposed full cost, so they pretend they’re offering a ‘discount’ when the reduced price is the true market rate’

    One of the reasons they do this is some loans have provisions that rents can’t go this low, etc. It’s loan fraud.

  20. RE: The Madness Is Over.

    No problem at all because Sanity is only a temporary disruption of the usual state of affairs in the world of funny money based Economics . . .

  21. ‘inventory began to swell in September after homeowners listed their houses for sale in the late spring and summer – just as buyers pulled the emergency brake. Meanwhile, a cohort of homeowners who delayed listing during that period planted a ‘for sale’ sign in September. ‘You’ve got the people who wanted to sell but couldn’t, plus the people who were holding off. They all entered the market in the fall’

    Wa happened to my shortage Matt?

  23. ‘West Pushed Ukraine To…’: Zelensky Aide’s Bombshell Admission About Russia’s War
    Hindustan Times

    12 hours ago

    Ukraine’s top MP and President Volodymyr Zelensky’s aide, David Arakhamia, has admitted that Ukraine wanted to end the war back in 2022 itself but it was the West that didn’t let it go ahead. “Russia’s goal was to put pressure on us so that we would take neutrality. This was the main thing for them. They were ready to end the war if we accepted neutrality, like Finland once did. And we would make a commitment that we will not join NATO. This was the main thing,” Arakhamia told TV Channel 1+1. He also revealed how former UK PM Boris Johnson had convinced Ukrainian officials to continue the war.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30rmYPb7SaY

    3:26.

    2. “has admitted that Ukraine wanted to end the war back in 2022 itself but it was the West that didn’t let it go ahead.”

      Way too much money was still there to be made by the Controligarchs.

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Moneywise
      Homebuyers are getting older as young Americans are being ‘pushed out’ of the real estate market — here’s what stops them from bridging the gap
      November 25, 2023, 4:30 am

      You may notice any new neighbors you get looking a little on the grayer side, as the dream of home ownership slides further out of reach for young Americans grappling with high prices and mortgage rates.

      The median age of homebuyers is now 49 years old — 10 years older than it was just two decades ago, according to Axios, citing data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

      The NAR also reports the median age of first-time buyers is 35 years old, while the median age of repeat buyers was aged 58 years old.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/homebuyers-getting-older-young-americans-123000052.html

      1. ARen’t those gray buyers selling their previous shacks to someone? Somewhere down the food chain there is a first time buyer, unless it’s corporate landlords who are buying their previous shacks/

  26. No new thread yet today?

    In case our blog host doesn’t post one, a necessary reminder that you will, in fact, own nothing.

    Seriously, nothing.

    1. And on the subject of owning nothing, the following sub-Reddit, who want everybody to own nothing:

      “This subreddit has its roots in broad-based anti-capitalist thought, with an emphasis on Marxist concepts and analysis and a commitment to antiracism and inclusive feminism.

      When it comes to proposed alternatives to Capitalism, it is the general consensus of this subreddit that class-divisions and alienated labour must be abolished; production must be collectively organized by the laborers themselves for the direct benefit of all. We call this socialism.”

      And from their “rules” section:

      “No capitalist apologia or anti-socialism. This subreddit is intended for a socialist audience, and while questions are allowed, pushing your own counter-narrative here is not. We do not allow support here for capitalism or for the parties or ideologies that uphold it. We are not a liberal or (U.S.-/Social-) Democrat subreddit; we are a socialist subreddit.”

      https://old.reddit.com/r/LateStageCapitalism/

      About the only thing I can agree with them on is being anti war, and their opposition to the Brandon regime.

      99.9% of Reddit supports the Brandon regime, all of its wars, vaccine mandates, and endless unlimited illegal immigration, the default position of all Reddit moderators, replete with down-voting click farms to ensure any counter-narrative is effectively buried into invisibility (comment score below threshold), an NPC hug-box safe space circle jerk.

    1. Here are 4 reasons investors should be paying attention to bonds as a turbulent year nears the finish line
      Phil Rosen Nov 26, 2023, 5:15 AM PST
      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 29, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
      Fixed income markets have only recently recovered their recent rout, but more upside may be ahead, a strategist said.

      The Fed’s likely done with rate hikes, which should eliminate the biggest headwind for bond investors.
      LPL Financial laid out four things investors should watch as 2023 winds down.

      The bond market turmoil that kicked off in October marked one of the worst sell-offs in history, but as 2023 nears its end, a market veteran says there’s reason for optimism in fixed income heading into the new year.

      In a note last week, Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist for LPL Financial, pointed out that bonds have only recently turned positive for the year.

      He laid out five reasons the current set-up bodes well for investors, starting with the end of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking campaign.

      “The biggest headwind to the fixed income markets over the last few years has unequivocally been the Fed,” Gillum said. With disinflation continuing at a steady clip, he said the central bank is likely finished with its monetary policy tightening.

      “[W]e think the Fed is likely done, which should eliminate the biggest headwind to fixed income markets,” he said.

      Second, Gillum pointed to the asymmetric risk-return profile for bonds, largely thanks to the higher “yield cushion” that can offset higher interest rates.

      “The higher income component serves as a ‘hurdle rate,’ or a yield cushion, that will need to be eclipsed before further losses are realized,” he said. “As such, these higher hurdle rates may decrease the probability of losses due to an increase in interest rates while at the same time these higher starting yields increase the probability of annual gains.”

      Third, the strategist said bond investors could see equity-like returns — without equity-like risks.

      LPL Financial holds a base case for the 10-year Treasury to hover at 4.25%-4.75%, but it maintains that a sustained drop in yields could lead to high single-digit or low double-digit returns in the next 12 months for fixed income investments.

      “[I]f the economy slows and the Fed cuts rates more than we expect next year, these high-quality fixed income sectors could generate 12%–13% type returns (no guarantees of course),” Gillum wrote in the note.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bond-market-outlook-fixed-income-investors-wall-street-finance-fed-2023-11

      1. FXStreet
        Jacob Wolinsky
        ValueWalk
        Is the stock market still overvalued?
        NEWS | 11/22/2023 05:28:19 GMT

        After the 2022 bear market, when the S&P 500 was down by about 19% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 33%, it appeared that the market had indeed corrected, with prices coming back down closer to their recent historical ranges.

        After all, the markets had become historically overvalued in the post-pandemic run-up. The S&P 500 climbed 29%, 16% and 27% in each year between 2019 and 2021, and the Nasdaq gained 35%, 44% and 21% in those same years.

        However, the markets have bounced back this year, with the S&P 500 up 18% and the Nasdaq up 36% year to date (YTD), led by the technology and communication services sectors, which are both up more than 50% YTD. That begs the question of whether the market has become overvalued again, particularly in the tech sector. Let’s take a look.

        Two years since the Nasdaq’s high

        The S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 4,797 on Jan. 3, 2022, and since then, it has dropped about 4.6% from that overinflated perch to around 4,547 on Nov. 21.

        The Nasdaq hit its all-time closing high on Nov. 19, almost exactly two years to the day, closing at 16,057. Further, it hit its intraday all-time high of 16,212 on Nov. 22, 2019, as the bear market started earlier for technology stocks. Since then, the Nasdaq is down by about 12% to 14,284 as of Nov. 21.

        However, when you consider the huge total returns that these benchmarks had leading up to those highs, the declines seem relatively small. Since the market opened on Jan. 2, 2019 at 2,477, the S&P 500 has gained 96% — or about 25% per year on an annualized basis — leading up to its January 2022 all-time high. The increase for the Nasdaq was even more dramatic, as it had risen 130% — or roughly 32% per year on an annualized basis — for the three years leading up to its November 2021 all-time high.

        This just points out that the recent declines for these benchmarks are just small fractions compared to the gains they notched leading up to them.
        …
        https://www.fxstreet.com/news/is-the-stock-market-still-overvalued-202311220528

    3. The Motley Fool
      Stock Guidance and Research
      The Bond Market Is Sounding This Alarm for the First Time in Decades: Here’s What It Could Mean for the Stock Market.
      By Trevor Jennewine – Nov 26, 2023 at 6:05AM

      Key Points

      – The U.S. economy grew at a remarkable pace in the third quarter, but the bond market is broadcasting a worrisome signal.

      – The U.S. Treasury yield curve is more steeply inverted today than it has been since 2000, and yield curve inversions have preceded every recession since 1955.

      – The S&P 500 usually falls sharply during a recession, but it also tends to rebound well before the recession ends.
      …
      https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/11/26/bond-market-alarm-what-it-means-for-stock-market/

    4. Yahoo
      Business Insider
      A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 stock routs warns investors may want to ‘buckle up’ amid recession risks
      Zahra Tayeb
      September 14, 2023·2 min read
      Traders work on the main trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 21, 2007.
      Brendan McDermid/Reuters

      – Asset-bubble expert John Hussman has warned investors may want to “buckle up” ahead of a fourth-quarter recession.

      – “If recession was to begin in Q4, the time to buckle up would be right now,” the notorious market bear said.

      – Hussman has long been pessimistic about the US economy and stocks, warning of a deep plunge in equities for years.

      A long-time stock-market bear who successfully called the 2000 and 2008 crashes has warned investors may wanted to “buckle up” ahead of a potential US recession by year-end.

      “If recession was to begin in Q4, the time to buckle up would be right now. Not measurable in real time, but the worst equity market outcomes begin ~2 months prior to recession until ~4 months prior to recovery,” John Hussman, president of the Hussman Investment Trust, said in a post on X.

      “Not a forecast, just FYI,” he however stressed.

      US recession calls are heating up again as investors fear that a combination of dwindling consumer savings, student loan repayments, and shrinking money supply could choke economic growth.

      Hussman recently warned that “far deeper market losses will emerge” for stocks as valuations remain high relative to Treasury yields. He also criticized the Federal Reserve’s policies over recent years, saying they have contributed economic imbalances that could potentially lead to a financial crisis.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/notorious-market-bear-called-2000-171525785.html

  28. Washington Post — The viral $16 McDonald’s meal that may explain voter anger at Biden (11/25/2023):

    “Even though he had ordered a novelty item, Olive’s video about a $16 McDonald’s order went viral, racking up hundreds of thousands of views. After a McDonald’s revenue report recently, the same post went viral again earlier this month, with at least a half-dozen news outlets — including the Washington Examiner, the New York Post and Newsmax — picking up the story of Olive’s pricey patty. One YouTube video from this month with 2 million views inaccurately describes it as “a Big Mac meal” that cost $16. Posts on Reddit, the conservative site Twitchy and elsewhere tied the cost to President Biden’s economic management: Inflation, the theory went, had gotten so out of control that the price of a fast-food burger was approaching $20.

    These stories soon reached the White House Office of Digital Strategy, which tracked the meme as one of many exaggerated examples of the nation’s economic woes, according to a White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect internal discussions. In reality, inflation has been steadily subsiding, and last week the government reported price hikes had eased yet again in October.

    And yet one anomalous price from one store in Idaho 11 months ago was ripping through people’s social media feeds as if it explained the entire economy. One Democratic official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations, said: “What are we supposed to do, tell the president or Chuck Schumer to send a tweet saying, ‘Hey, most Big Macs aren’t that expensive?’ It would look ridiculous.” A spokesperson from McDonald’s did not return a request for comment.

    The Big Mac conundrum reflects what Biden aides and senior Democratic officials regard as one of their most vexing challenges ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Even as inflation has fallen to a manageable 3 percent, and although the labor market has remained hot amid strong growth, voters still don’t like the economy, and they blame the president.

    Overcoming this discontent — and understanding what is driving it — has become a central priority of the White House and Democratic lawmakers, leading to a fierce debate among economists, pollsters and other experts.”

    Experts? What a joke.

    “Former president Donald Trump has made ridiculing Biden’s economic performance one of his main campaign messages, raising the stakes for the White House even more.

    The administration continues to be torn over how to respond to the negative polling.

    At the center of this debate is a dispute over to what extent social media and perceptions — rather than real conditions in the economy — are fueling voters’ angst.

    There is at least some evidence that the digital world is painting a bleaker picture than the statistics support.

    TikTok abounds with misleading or inaccurate information about the economy. One video in September with 2.3 million views said there was a “SILENT DEPRESSION.” Another video from this summer with 2.1 million views claimed, incorrectly, “We have the lowest purchasing power we have ever had in American history,” and asserted that inflation-adjusted wages are lower than they were then.

    TikTok and YouTube have dozens of videos of this kind, making similarly false claims.

    Some economists think these kinds of comments are not just wrong but dangerous. They have been astounded by polling data on Biden’s economic approval and surveys of consumer sentiment, where results during the Biden administration are similar to the Great Recession, when unemployment was close to three times as high as it is now. These economists fear that these exaggerated stories will ultimately lead to a worse outcome — perhaps helping Trump win reelection — and that it is vital to make clear that this remains by many measures one of the best recoveries in modern U.S. history.”

    https://archive.is/5vMoK

    Economists = the Parasite Class.

    1. Two minute standing ovation? The Unelected Occupant can’t even get a golf clap out of twenty people in a room, if he’s lucky to even get that many in a room.

      81 million votes my @ss.

      1. The arrival.

        Collin Rugg
        @CollinRugg
        ·
        Follow
        NEW: Crowd goes nuts as Donald Trump
        arrives at Williams-Brice Stadium to watch the Clemson vs. South Carolina football game.

        Constant negative media coverage, attacks from Democrats, attacks from Republicans, gag orders, impeachments, facing 91 charges…

        … and the American… Show more
        Collin Rugg
        @CollinRugg

        NEW: Crowd goes nuts as Donald Trump
        arrives at Williams-Brice Stadium to watch the Clemson vs. South Carolina football game.

        Constant negative media coverage, attacks from Democrats, attacks from Republicans, gag orders, impeachments, facing 91 charges…

        … and the American… Show more

        https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1728580076479168853?s=20

  31. [A long rant that, IMO, is worthy of a careful read …]

    Ukraine War is Just About Over

    https://ronpaulinstitute.org/ukraine-war-is-just-about-over/

    [A snip …]

    Americans, the people and their government, assisted by their media wielding the greatest propaganda tools ever imagined, seem capable of focusing on only one bright shiny object at a time. Over 41 percent of Americans now say the U.S. is doing too much to help Kiev. That’s a significant change from just three months ago when only 24 percent of Americans said they felt that way. In the case of wars, a new bright shiny object must include two clear sides, one good and one pure evil, with one preferably an underdog, daily combat footage which can be obtained without too much danger, and a football game-like progression across a map that is easy to follow. It should not be boring. Ukraine was such a conflict and enjoyed almost a full two-year run. But the fickle attention of America shifted to the Middle East just as things started to look more and more like static WWI trench warfare in Ukraine. It was a hard act to follow but something always follows nonetheless (the same calculus works for natural disasters and mass shootings, which are only as mediagenic-good as the next one coming.)

    1. 7 Things the Middle Class Spends Too Much Money On
      Laura Beck
      November 24, 2023, 4:00 pm
      jacoblund / Getty Images/iStockphoto
      While being middle class generally signifies financial stability, many middle-class families actually live paycheck to paycheck.

      It can be easy to overspend on non-essential items in an effort to keep up with the Joneses. But being more mindful of spending habits can help the middle class build up savings and reach their financial goals.

      To find the balance between needs and wants, consider curbing your spending in the following categories.

      Housing

      Housing is typically the biggest monthly expense for middle-class households. With rising home prices in many areas, some middle-class families stretch their budgets thin trying to afford the nicest home they can.

      While owning a home is often considered part of the American dream, buying more house than you can reasonably afford is risky for your financial security.

      “On average, Americans allocate about 35% of their expenditure to housing,” said Andrew Latham, the director of content at Supermoney. “Not long ago, Americans would spend more on food than housing, but now housing is by far the biggest expense of most families.”

      It’s understandable to want a beautiful, spacious home. However, consider lower cost areas or more modest homes that still meet your needs.

      Car Payments

      Cars depreciate fast, yet many middle-class buyers opt for expensive auto loans to finance newer luxury cars. Keeping up with the latest models and technology can cost thousands in excessive car loan payments.

      “Big car payments can eat into your budget,” said Lynn Toomey, founder of Her Retirement. “Consider if you really need that brand-new car with all the bells and whistles, or if a reliable used one would do the job just as well.”

      “The second-largest expenditure category is transportation,” said Latham. “Many of us spend way beyond the recommended 10-15% of our monthly take-home pay on a car payment. To reduce expenses, consider being a single-car household, use public transportation, carpool, buy used vehicles, or go for cars with better fuel efficiency.”

      Test driving used models in good condition can reveal a practically brand-new car for a fraction of the price. Prioritize reliability and safety over lavish upgrades that don’t improve your driving experience. Refinancing car loans can lower monthly payments too. Consider all options before committing to years of expensive payments.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-things-middle-class-spends-000021576.html

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