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Would-Be House Sellers Think The Market Should Behave Like It Did At The Peak Of Frenzy

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “Danielle Tantone and her soon-to-be ex-husband, Michael Tantone, bought their Mesa, Ariz., area home in July 2022 with a mortgage of about $600,000 that carried an interest rate of 5.62%. Both planned to refinance when mortgage rates fell. Instead, they are divorcing and saddled with a house that has fallen in value and that neither can afford on their own. ‘It’s currently worth less than we paid for it, so we are forced to short sell,’ says Danielle, a nurse. Michael, an insurance agent and part-time elementary-school instructional assistant, plans to stay in the home, although they have stopped making payments, until it sells. ‘We’re negotiating with the bank to accept a price lower than the house is worth,’ says Michael, who plans to live with friends temporarily.”

“Homes are often a couple’s main asset and deciding what to do with it remains a main issue in divorce. Typically, couples sell the home and split the proceeds or one spouse refinances the mortgage and buys out the other spouse’s interest. But with average mortgage rates at 20-year highs, it can be harder to sell or refinance. ‘We are working on what some days feels like the impossible: cohabiting and co-parenting in a 1,200-square-foot home,’ says one mom sharing a ranch house in Portland, Ore., with her estranged husband.”

Sarasota Magazine in Florida. “The recent trend of more houses on the market is staying the course. October inventory in both Sarasota and Manatee counties is the highest it’s been so far this year, according to data compiled by the Realtor Association of Sarasota-Manatee. ‘I’m seeing that some people who panic-bought post-pandemic without taking time to do more research are discovering they might not find their neighborhood ideal [for them] and want to move,’ says Jana Marie Gouwens, an agent with Preferred Shore Realty. ‘Buyers are slowing down somewhat due to interest rates [now at roughly 8 percent for a 30-year fixed mortgage],’ she continues. ‘But it almost levels out for the buyer, with prices that have cooled somewhat. Sellers have had to lower their asking price for buyers to afford [the houses] along with the interest rates.'”

“In Manatee County, the median sale price for single-family homes decreased by 12.8 percent, to $479,000, while Sarasota County saw a 3.3 percent decrease, bringing the price to $520,000. Gouwens emphasizes that it’s a good time to buy. ‘Buyers can get more concessions and more negotiating with the sellers now. There used to be none of that, and it was take it or leave it. Now, if the property is priced right you can still get multiple offers,’ she says.”

The Providence Journal in Rhode Island. “Shortly after the onset of the pandemic, the housing market went wild. The number of homes listed on the market dramatically dropped, open house lines went down entire blocks and bidding wars erupted as record-low interest rates allowed homebuyers to throw money at sellers. The way Redfin real estate agent Bryan Quinlan sees it, would-be house sellers think the market should behave like it did at the peak of frenzy, when buyers would bid up the price on a house because it cost almost nothing to borrow. ‘A lot of sellers are being greedy,’ Quinlan said.”

“‘I think we’re seeing buyers at the end of their funds, the end of their savings, and they just can’t do anymore,’ Quinlan said. With house prices near record highs, and limited inventory, would-be buyers want flawless houses. ‘Buyers feel like they need everything,’ he said. ‘They’re paying top dollar, so they want everything to be perfect.’ One house Quinlan recently listed for $520,000 went under contract in three days. He took over the listing from another agent, but convinced the seller to lower the price from $575,000, where it had been sitting with no interest. ‘If it’s overpriced, people are not going to come,’ he said.”

Bisnow Los Angeles in California. “Los Angeles’ multifamily market, like other sectors in the city and across the country, continues to feel the pain from high interest rates and their cascading repercussions, but transactions haven’t totally ground to a halt. Deals that are getting done, according to several multifamily executives, have a common thread running through them: distress. ‘We’re talking to a couple family offices right now that want to buy what I would call generational, good, long-term product,’ said Waterford Property Co. co-founder and Head of Acquisitions and Development Sean Rawson. ‘In Orange County, there’s a couple core deals that traded at, call it, $450K to $475K a unit. If you were to build that product today, you’d be close to $650K a door. We’re starting to see some good opportunities like that.'”

“Rawson gave an example of a distressed office deal that Waterford is pursuing: a property it had made an offer on previously, but the winning bidder won’t be closing the sale. He said ownership is in a time crunch, as it has debt coming due, and has to sell by the end of year. ‘Effectively, I think we could come in and buy it for what their loan amount is just to save them from foreclosure, but it’s a covered land play — well-located in the Southern California market, zoned residential land,’ Rawson said. ‘We’re buying that just for land value.'”

“If distress is a key element of getting a deal done, there is a healthy pool of potential deals. The multifamily sector accounts for $7.5B of outstanding distress nationally, with $65.7B of potential distress on the way, third-quarter data from MSCI indicates. MSCI found the sector had the highest potential for imminent trouble, accounting for almost a third of all at-risk properties. ‘They’re stuck in the pipeline, their carry costs have doubled, and these guys are running around going, ‘How do we make the next payment?’ Kidder Mathews Executive Vice President of Debt and Equity Finance Brad Kraus said. ‘There’s a lot of pain out there under the surface for those type of guys.'”

The Real Deal on Texas. “The spotlight on multifamily distress in Houston just got brighter, as a southwest suburban apartment complex is slated for a foreclosure auction early next month. A lender has taken steps to foreclose on the 264-unit Retreat at Stafford apartment complex, after the owner, Austin-based GVA Real Estate Group, defaulted on a $288 million loan, Bisnow reported. The loan, issued by LoanCore Capital in February 2022, has five borrowers, all LLCs connected to apartment complexes owned by GVA. In addition to the Stafford apartments, the mortgage is tied to two properties in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, along with two more in Tennessee and South Carolina.”

“GVA, which focuses on value-add multifamily investments, is swimming in debt. Earlier this month, it was reported that the firm was delinquent on two loans, totalling $55.6 million and connected to four apartment complexes. GVA defaulted on a $56.3 million loan on a San Antonio apartment complex, recently prompting LoanCore Capital to foreclose on that property as well. This potential foreclosure adds to a growing list of distressed multifamily properties in Harris County. Applesway Investment Group, for instance, has lost five Houston-area apartment properties this year via foreclosure, including the Cabo San Lucas Apartments in the city’s Greenspoint neighborhood.”

The Financial Post. “Canada’s housing market is in ‘recessionary’ territory, and it’s going to get worse before it gets better, economists warned this week. The picture looks even bleaker when viewed by population with per capita sales at lows not seen since the 2008 recession. ‘The housing market in Canada is in recessionary territory, as it faces its most significant test since the 1991 recession,’ said CIBC economists Benjamin Tal and Katherine Judge. ‘And activity will deteriorate further into the first half of 2024 as interest rates remain elevated, and supply floods the market.’ New listings have been climbing in recent months, rising 31 per cent from the low in March 2023. ‘That surge in part reflects increased distress sales as owners list their properties due to financing issues as mortgages payments increase rapidly,’ the economists said.”

From Global News. “A Halifax-based realtor says the city is experiencing a housing market slowdown like many parts of Canada. ‘We’re finally seeing things on the market stay on the market for 10 days or two weeks, which is totally unusual,’ says Priority One Real Estate Owner Mark Stein. ‘Six months ago or a year ago, a property would be on the market for four days, 12 offers, and then, poof — sold, gone.’ As a result, he says, home prices are softening. ‘Consumers are used to them selling quickly, so if they don’t sell within a week or two the sellers are realizing, maybe we’ve overpriced this,’ Stein says. ‘So prices are actually being reduced, which hasn’t happened in three or four years.'”

The Sun Times in Canada. “Residential building permit demand has plummeted in Grey County this year over the last two years, a county staff report shows. Forty-five per cent fewer residential building permits were issued to the end of September this year over last — 371 units this year compared with 687 last year. It’s also a 53 per cent drop from 788 units two years ago for the same period. County planner Scott Taylor said in an interview that building permits are down but they’re down from ‘banner’ years. Barry Kruisselbrink, owner of Allenford-based Barry’s Construction, said he has built ‘a lot less’ this year than last year or the year before.”

“‘What the problem now is, there’s no sales. It’s not only in Grey-Bruce. It’s all over Ontario.’ He said sales are ‘probably a little bit worse’ than pre-pandemic levels. Someone who before qualified for a $600,000 mortgage now qualifies for half that, he said. ‘So it’s making it impossible for people to get a mortgage.’ And people who locked in low interest rates for say five years are renewing at higher rates, which will see their mortgage payments ‘more than double,’ he said. ‘There’s going to be a lot of houses that come up that people can’t afford.'”

“Asked about the lower levels of residential building permits, after Thursday’s county council meeting, Warden Brian Milne said he sees it in his own municipality. Anecdotally in Dundalk, part of Southgate Township where he’s mayor, Milne said the developer FLATO Developments had plans to start building over 500 homes this year. ‘Well he hasn’t started half that. So that’s just an indication of what’s going on.'”

News.com.au in Australia. “The Victorian government is considering a major change to the process of building apartment blocks after multiple homeowners were stung by a blind spot in the law. In September, news.com.au reported that a loophole had left 77 Melbourne apartment owners financially ruined. Apartment complexes more than three storeys high are not covered by Domestic Building Insurance (DBI) under Victorian law, which means if the builder goes bust, those buildings have no insurance to automatically pay to fix defects.”

“This was certainly the case for the 77 residents at a four-storey block in West Footscray, inner Melbourne, who were left them to foot the $4.5 million defect bill themselves. Their builder, Shangri-La Construction, went into liquidation earlier this year after residents had begun a lawsuit against the building firm, leaving them with no recourse. This caused many to find themselves tens of thousands of dollars in debt and forced some to move in with parents, and in case, a resident was left suicidal.”

“Zoe Muller, 47, has been forced to move back in with her mother as she drowns in debt. She is $6000 behind in payments. ‘Half my wage goes to strata fees, the other 25 per cent goes to mortgage, I have hardly any left over,’ she told news.com.au. ‘That’s the reason I decided to move (into my mum’s), I couldn’t afford to live anymore really.’ Another resident, Jessi*, only managed to save $200 last year amid the rising costs in the apartment. ‘Essentially I’m working to live,’ the teacher told news.com.au. Others are struggling to accumulate savings, including Maria de Leon, 29, telling news.com.au: ‘I didn’t save at all last year. I was eating into my savings.'”

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This Post Has 83 Comments

  1. ‘The way Redfin real estate agent Bryan Quinlan sees it, would-be house sellers think the market should behave like it did at the peak of frenzy, when buyers would bid up the price on a house because it cost almost nothing to borrow. ‘A lot of sellers are being greedy’

    The Providence Journal only runs a slightly negative article once every 10 years.

  2. ‘It’s currently worth less than we paid for it, so we are forced to short sell,’ says Danielle, a nurse. Michael, an insurance agent and part-time elementary-school instructional assistant, plans to stay in the home, although they have stopped making payments, until it sells. ‘We’re negotiating with the bank to accept a price lower than the house is worth’

    Stopped making payments? Wa happened to my sound lending? Tina and the girls at Cromford still say it’s a sellers market, are they a lion?!

      1. “Time to remove them fixtures and go to ebay.”

        Wife and I toured a house where the water heater also removed.

  3. ‘We’re negotiating with the bank to accept a price lower than the house is worth,’ says Michael, who plans to live with friends temporarily.”

    Mr. Market decides what your shack is worth, Michael – not you.

  4. Zoe Muller, 47, has been forced to move back in with her mother as she drowns in debt. She is $6000 behind in payments. ‘Half my wage goes to strata fees, the other 25 per cent goes to mortgage, I have hardly any left over,’ she told news.com.au.

    If you ain’t slimmin’
    You ain’t winning’….

  5. Raising money for Xmas takes different angles ….In Sumter SC, a 55 years old Truck driver, takes his semi load of 44K pounds of frozen chicken, starts selling it cheap ,to little shops all over the “Low country”, of SC , instead of delivering it to Georgia…Those little shops ,and or restaurents ,all need to be charged ,with recieving stolen goods ,they knew better….He sold almost all of it cheap, before being stopped on the highway there….Don’t think that would happen in the Upstate here , it just wouldn’t ……

    1. With all the corruption in high places, it’s no surprise that some of the small fry want their cut of the action.

    2. Apparently it never occurred to the driver that the buyer in Georgia might complain about never receiving their chicken?

  7. … again, I really don’t understand, the y write that 60% Americans live paycheck to paycheck and then who are buying those shity one story houses in Orange County ca for million $$$, when you compare the 2 story house next to Lago Majore, Italy in the city of Arona is $280000 , you sit in a boat in that lake in a morning go to Switzerland, have a lunch there and comeback home, and Milan is just 40 miles away… it is Italy guys …

    1. “Mortgage Purchase Demand (Applications) Down -31% From Previous Week”

      Is that alot … for one week?

  10. Cities crack down on homeless encampments. Advocates say that’s not the answer (11/28/2023):

    “Tent encampments have long been a fixture of West Coast cities, but are now spreading across the U.S. The federal count of homeless people reached 580,000 last year, driven by lack of affordable housing, a pandemic that economically wrecked households, and lack of access to mental health and addiction treatment.”

    ^ The “pandemic” didn’t wreck households, government did.

    “Records obtained by The Associated Press show attempts to clear encampments increased in cities from Los Angeles to New York as public pressure grew to address what some residents say are dangerous and unsanitary living conditions. But despite tens of millions of dollars spent in recent years, there appears to be little reduction in the number of tents propped up on sidewalks, in parks and by freeway off-ramps.

    Homeless people and their advocates say the sweeps are cruel and a waste of taxpayer money. They say the answer is more housing, not crackdowns.”

    https://www.denver7.com/news/front-range/denver/cities-crack-down-on-homeless-encampments-advocates-say-thats-not-the-answer

    More housing?

    Give a junkie a house and get a wrecked house full of junkies. Give a tweaker a house and get a wrecked house full of tweakers.

    1. “…But despite tens of millions of dollars spent in recent years…”

      In LA county alone, its Billions, not Millions.

      Measure HHH which was pitched to voters to ‘end homelessness’ over 5 years ago cost $1.2B.

      Add in dozens of other sham non-profits and all you have to show for decades of spending is an ever expanding Homeless Industrial Complex full of high priced administrators and bureaucrats who spend their time going to meetings and writing reports for each other.

      Yet homeless population continues to grow.

        1. “…If they solved it they would be out of a job….”

          Exactly!

          The Homeless Industrial Complex is one of those self sustaining bureaucratic monsters that are nearly impossible to extinguish. (At least with the current Los Angeles government in place).

          How many 6-figure salary administrators do you need to supervise a cluster of addled individuals to hand out water bottles [to homeless] pretending to accomplish something?

          This is an Exhibit “A” example of the once great USA sinking into a dark stink hole never to be seen again.

    2. Let the advocates take the homeless into their own homes to couch surf, and watch as everything not nailed down is stolen for drug money.

      If the homeless need “housing,” put them in a dorm with shared bathrooms and showers and laundry, like any freshman in college. No cute tiny houses or tony hotel rooms. And put them on the outskirts of the cities; they have no business taking up prime real estate downtown.

      1. In the Denver article it was mentioned that someone opened their basement to immigrants. Very noble, if perhaps unwise. Even if the basement is secure and access to the upstairs is blocked things could go south quickly, like say a fire started in the basement, or maybe meth or fentanyl being brought in, requiring a expensive house wide detox.

          1. Public libraries have turned into problematic spaces, and this was before drag queen story hour. Libraries cannot deny entry to anyone, so they have become havens for dregs and ceased to be family friendly spaces some time ago. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slowly disappear. I know that is a big worry at our local library. In an age of tight city budgets shutting down the library is a very tempting option, especially since they are considered obsolete.

          2. When I was growing up, the library shelves touched the walls, creating a little dead end in each aisle. It was a great place to curl up and read. Now, my local library has barely any books and it’s mostly meeting space and computers where kids do “homework,” i.e. play games. The aisles are out in the open with nowhere to hide, ceilings are high, so is the noise level. So now I go to the used bookstore. They actually have many more books and I don’t have to bring any back.

          3. The libraries in Clark County, NV (Las Vegas) are hardly obsolete. They offer a lot of services beyond borrowing books. I’m currently connected to the internet via a WiFi hotspot I checked out from the library. I’m okay with unlimited free internet access at home or anywhere. It’s not gig speed but fast enough for web browsing and basic streaming.

      2. You can keep your homeless in your cities please. There is no “prime” downtown space anymore. It’s all unoccupied.

  11. Overdose deaths rising among Denver’s unhoused population, medical examiner data shows (11/28/2023):

    “Nearly two-thirds of the city’s unhoused population who died this year suffered from a drug-related overdose, according to the latest medical examiner data.

    The alarming number highlights a disturbing trend that advocates for people experiencing homelessness are worried about.

    According to the latest data from the Denver Office of the Medical Examiner, 260 people experiencing homelessness died this year. Of those, just over 170 died from drug-related overdoses. Last year, about 120 people experiencing homelessness in Denver died from drug-related overdoses.”

    https://www.denver7.com/news/front-range/denver/overdose-deaths-rising-among-denvers-unhoused-population-medical-examiner-data-shows

  12. More local news.

    Denverites stepping in to help migrant families as city resources are stretched thin (11/28/2023):

    “The migrant crisis in Denver is growing, with hundreds of people from Central and South America arriving each week. But as city resources are being stretched thin, Denverites are volunteering their time to help wherever they can.

    The latest data from the city shows 68 people arrived from south of the border Tuesday — a decrease from the 97 who arrived a day prior. Those figures may not seem like much, but in all, Denver has welcomed more than 28,000 migrants since the beginning of the year.

    The influx of people needing support is putting a strain on local resources, but some community members in Denver are now stepping up to help.

    Denver7 spoke with Pedro Tafor, a newly arrived migrant who received the temporary housing help. Tafor said the difficult situation in Venezuela is what is forcing thousands of families to flee.

    “We feel obligated to leave the country, because there’s not enough food, the salary is not enough,” he said in Spanish. “I’m very grateful here in Denver, I have no words.”

    https://www.denver7.com/news/local-news/denverites-stepping-in-to-help-migrant-families-as-city-resources-are-stretched-thin

    Pedro, did you consider overthrowing the corrupt socialist (redundant, I know) government in the country you came from, instead of coming here?

  13. Jon Ewing, with the City of Denver’s Human Services Department, said right now, only about 20-25% of migrants qualify for work permits. He said the city is asking for help at the federal level in order to change that

    In other works. 75% are no “refugees”, they are illegals. And since when has the lack of papers kept illegals from working? This smells like a ploy to move illegals straight into the ranks of the Free Sh!t Army.

    1. “He said the city is asking for help at the federal level in order to change that”

      Unless Denver can sell a bunch of overpriced weapon systems and launder truck loads of dollars like Ukraine the chances are slim.

      1. I watched a Laura Ingraham clip last night, and she made an interesting point: That while blue city mayors are clamoring for federal aid as they claim to be overwhelmed with illegals, they are probably in on the deal, which is to import as many “refugees” as possible in the next 12 months.

        Also read that the government of Costa Rica just declared a state of emergency as the country cannot cope with the volume of immigrants that pass through its territory, even though they are transitional. Yeah, that’s how big the caravans are becoming. How many more will the Brandon regime let in? 10 million? 20 million? More?

        Also spoke with a cousin in Mexico City. I asked him why Mexico lets the migrants pass. He said that there is no political will to stop them, plus it isn’t possible as there are just too many of them, and Mexico won’t resort to violence to stop them.

        1. “How many more will the Brandon regime let in? 10 million? 20 million? More?”

          Jonathan Greenblatt hand rubbing intensifies…

    2. The city is asking for help at the federal level.

      They’ll have to get through Speaker Mike Johnson for that. I don’t think they will. At least not for the time being.

      And maybe the city governments have some plot to bring in new money and new voters, but the existing voters themselves see what’s going on. The cities will stay blue (kill babies, you know), but independents in the burbs do NOT appreciated being accosted at Wal Mart by espanols. Some enterprising young conservative Congressional candidates might see an opportunity there, enough to keep the House red.

  14. CTIL Files #1: US And UK Military Contractors Created Sweeping Plan For Global Censorship In 2018, New Documents Show
    Whistleblower makes trove of new documents available to Public and Racket, showing the birth of the Censorship Industrial Complex in reaction to Brexit and Trump election in 2016

    In the fall, Terp and others sought to promote their report. The podcast Terp did with Breuer in 2019 was one example of this effort. Together Terp and Breuer described the “public-private” model of censorship laundering that DHS, EIP, and VP would go on to embrace.

    Breuer spoke freely, openly stating that the information and narrative control he had in mind was comparable to that implemented by the Chinese government, only made more palatable for Americans. “If you talk to the average Chinese citizen, they absolutely believe that the Great Firewall of China is not there for censorship. They believe that it’s there because the Chinese Communist Party wants to protect the citizenry and they absolutely believe that’s a good thing. If the US government tried to sell that narrative, we would absolutely lose our minds and say, ‘No, no, this is a violation of our First Amendment rights.’ So the in-group and out-group messaging have to be often different.”

    “SJ called us the ‘Hogwarts school for misinformation and disinformation,’” said the whistleblower. “They were superheroes in their own story. And to that effect you could still find comic books on the CISA site.”

    CTIL, the whistleblower said, “needed programmers to pull apart information from Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube. For Twitter they created Python code to scrape.”

    The CTIL records provided by the whistleblower illustrate exactly how CTIL operated and tracked “incidents,” as well as what it considered to be “disinformation.” About the “we won’t stay home” narrative, CTIL members wrote, “Do we have enough to ask for the groups and/or accounts to be taken down or at a minimum reported and checked?” and “Can we get all troll on their bums if not?”

    They tracked posters calling for anti-lockdown protests as disinformation artifacts.

    “We should have seen this one coming,” they wrote about the protests. “Bottom line: can we stop the spread, do we have enough evidence to stop superspreaders, and are there other things we can do (are there countermessagers we can ping etc).”

    CTIL also worked to brainstorm counter-messaging for things like encouraging people to wear masks and discussed building an amplification network. “Repetition is truth,” said a CTIL member in one training.

    CTIL worked with other figures and groups in the Censorship Industrial Complex. Meeting notes indicate that Graphika’s team looked into adopting AMITT and that CTIL wanted to consult DiResta about getting platforms to remove content more quickly.

    When asked whether Terp or other CTIL leaders discussed their potential violation of the First Amendment, the whistleblower said, “They did not… The ethos was that if we get away with it, it’s legal, and there were no First Amendment concerns because we have a ‘public-private partnership’ — that’s the word they used to disguise those concerns. ‘Private people can do things public servants can’t do, and public servants can provide the leadership and coordination.’”

    Despite their confidence in the legality of their activities, some CTIL members may have taken extreme measures to keep their identities a secret. The group’s handbook recommends using burner phones, creating pseudonymous identities, and generating fake AI faces using the “This person does not exist” website.

    https://public.substack.com/p/ctil-files-1-us-and-uk-military-contractors

    2. ‘They did not… The ethos was that if we get away with it, it’s legal’

      That’s how we’ll deal with you dogs when we track you down.

  15. European Markets
    Europe’s Signa toppled in property rout
    By Alexandra Schwarz-goerlich, John O’Donnell and Emma-Victoria Farr
    November 29, 2023 6:44 AM PST Updated 22 min ago
    A view of the sign of Signa Holding on their headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 6, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

    VIENNA/FRANKFURT, Nov 29 (Reuters)

    Property and retail giant Signa declared insolvency on Wednesday after last-ditch attempts to secure fresh funding failed, making it the biggest casualty so far of Europe’s property crash.

    Controlled by Austrian magnate Rene Benko, the group is an owner of New York’s Chrysler Building as well as several high-profile projects and department stores across Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

    The multi-billion-euro group, whose tentacles reach from Germany’s best-known department store, Berlin’s KaDeWe, to the country’s top high-street chain Galeria and a skyscraper project, is set to send ripples across the continent’s embattled property sector.
    …
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/austrias-signa-launch-self-administrated-insolvency-proceedings-2023-11-29/

  16. Is groupthink (a.k.a. conformity bias) leading you to put all your beans in the stock market and miss out on an epic bond market rally?

    1. Financial Times
      Global Economy
      OECD says markets wrong on interest rate cuts
      Organisation expects borrowing costs in UK and eurozone to stay high until 2025
      Food items in a shopping trolley
      The OECD said more than half of the items in inflation baskets in the US, the euro area and the UK still showed annual inflation rates above 4%
      Sam Fleming in London 2 hours ago

      The OECD has warned that inflation could force central banks in western Europe to keep interest rates higher next year than financial markets expect, despite some of the weakest global growth rates since the financial crisis.

      In its latest economic outlook, the Paris-based organisation said it expected the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to hold benchmark rates at their current peaks until 2025 — much longer than the markets are expecting — because of persistent inflationary pressures.

      That contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which it expects to start cutting rates in the second half of next year.
      …

    2. Financial Times
      Sovereign bonds
      US bonds on track for best month in nearly 40 years
      Sharp rally is driven by growing expectations of US interest rate cuts in 2024
      Exterior of Federal Reserve building
      Interest rate futures indicate investors have swung to fully pricing in a quarter-point cut by the Federal Reserve’s June meeting
      Jennifer Hughes, Kate Duguid and Harriet Clarfelt in New York
      4 hours ago

      US bonds are on track to record their best monthly performance in nearly four decades, as growing optimism about interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year fuels a dramatic rebound from an early autumn sell-off.

      The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond index, a widely tracked measure of total returns on US fixed income, has risen 4.3 per cent so far in November, putting it on course for its best monthly showing since 1985.

      The rally has nudged the benchmark’s total returns this year into positive territory, raising hopes it can avoid notching up a three-year string of losses — an unprecedented event in its 47 years.
      …

  18. These Experts Advocated for Lockdowns; Now They Say They Were Wrong

    Very few experts who now say they were wrong on lockdowns and mandates have publicly apologized. We spoke to two who did.

    Mr. Bass, who said at the beginning of the pandemic he was a hard-core Covidian (someone who elevated COVID prevention and mitigation to an almost religious persuasion), said the Imperial College’s modeling highly influenced his initial support for lockdowns, as did reports from the World Health Organization (WHO).

    “They said it kills 3.4 percent of the people it infects—that was the World Health Organization’s figure until early April—3.4 percent, that’s way too many people! That’s like one out of every 30 people is going to die,” Mr. Bass told The Epoch Times.

    “And then we had these Imperial College London models which modeled how many deaths there would be due to the pandemic in different scenarios, whether mitigated or unmitigated, with no lockdowns or measures taken.

    “And there was essentially no other data. I think, because of the hysteria, the fear, the example of China perhaps, people had an excessive amount of confidence—scientists, social scientists—in the Imperial College of London models.” But as the pandemic unfolded, Dr. Joffe and Mr. Bass began to rethink their early lockdown support.

    “In the first few months of lockdown, I realized that my (and similarly trained medical colleagues) expertise was poorly suited to give advice during a pandemic,” Dr. Joffe said.

    He added that when he first saw the Imperial College’s modeling, he failed to note that “the high-risk groups were those aged 70 years and older (especially in long-term care), and those aged 60 to 69 with severe comorbidities.”

    But that fact soon became apparent, and the infection fatality rate was more than 10 times lower than the reported case fatality rate.

    “The modeling was flawed, and in general, modeling (forecasting) failed during the pandemic. This was because the models were based on flawed assumptions and non-transparent methods,” Dr. Joffe said.

    “If you put in inaccurate assumptions (e.g., the infection fatality rate was way too high; the population was modeled as homogeneous when in reality it is highly heterogeneous in terms of risk and exposure; the outbreak was modeled as never-ending exponential increase, unlike any epidemic in history; the herd immunity threshold was assumed to be far too high; and more), the model will show what you want it to show.”

    Dr. Joffe said that he also saw the effect of lockdowns on students at the university and came to recognize that his support of lockdowns was from a privileged position that “failed to recognize that loneliness, unemployment, and adverse childhood experiences are top risk factors for shortened lifespan, mental health problems, and chronic non-communicable diseases.”

    Plus, he’d “failed to recognize that missing school will affect an entire generation with reduced social development, executive function (i.e., decision-making ability), earning potential, and future lifespan, and lead to marked increases in adverse mental health outcomes.”

    Once he recognized those facts, Dr. Joffe began researching lockdowns and his paper was published on Feb. 26, 2021.

    In his conclusion, Dr. Joffe states, “The economic recession, through austerity in government spending on the social determinants of health, can be expected to cause far more loss of life and wellbeing over the long-run than COVID-19 can.

    “We must open up society to save many more lives than we can by attempting to avoid every case (or even most cases) of COVID-19. It is past time to take an effortful pause, calibrate our response to the true risk, make rational cost-benefit analyses of the trade-offs, and end the lockdown groupthink.”

    The pushback forced Mr. Bass to recognize the tribalism within his community and that they weren’t following the facts but instead following conventional thinking and so-called experts with the most prominent online platforms. “Once I realized that, I started to see it in many different things, and I started questioning,” he said.

    That questioning came to a head when, in 2022, Elon Musk bought Twitter, now X, and posted his pronouns as “Prosecute Fauci.” “I retweeted that, or maybe even heightened, quote-tweeted that, like approvingly, and I just got dogpiled,” Mr. Bass said. “I was always a Covidian. I always thought that we should have lockdowns, we should have mask mandates, and vaccine mandates, and I was very authoritarian. “Looking back on it now, it’s embarrassing.”

    “And it became obvious that this whole zero-COVID narrative … was [expletive]. Like we weren’t ever going to control COVID, and it just became obvious that lockdowns, in general, were a pipe dream, a fantasy. And to the extent that they could, you’d end up with a totalitarian nightmare.”

    Recognizing his error and wanting to acknowledge it, Mr. Bass posted to X on Dec. 12, 2022, “I was wrong about lockdowns and mandates. I was wrong and the reason I was wrong was my tribalism, my emotions, and my distorted understanding of human nature and of the virus. It doesn’t matter much, but I wanted to apologize for being wrong.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/these-experts-advocated-for-lockdowns-now-they-say-they-were-wrong-5533955

    1. But that fact soon became apparent, and the infection fatality rate was more than 10 times lower than the reported case fatality rate.

      It was even lower, as most of those people did not actually die of Covid.

      1. Like young guys who died in a motorcycle accident. A big tell was the guberment was doing everything to make this appear to be worse than it was.

        1. And it worked. I watched as relatives went into a full blown panic and ran out, tripping over each other, to get the experimental, dangerous and ineffective jab. And most of them refuse to admit that they were hornswoggled, and insist that at the time it was the right choice.

          2. And most ignore that despite following all the Simon-says, they got and passed on the bug.

            They insist that it would have been worse without the jab, even though the wimpy omicron variants knocked them on their keisters far worse than the delta variant hit ol’ unvaccinated me.

            I now have to wonder how many of them will have a deferred injury, like a tubo cancer. Two already have had cardiac incidents and one almost died and only survived because she was already at the ER (she didn’t feel well and her husband took her in) when she went into cardiac arrest. Had it happened at home she would would be dead. She now has a defibrillator in her chest.

            Her pharmacist daughter told her the jab was 100% safe and effective.

  19. Three Venezuelan migrants charged with theft from west suburban Kohl’s

    by: Eli Ong
    Nov 25, 2023

    WHEATON, Ill. — Three Venezuelan migrants staying in Waukegan were charged Saturday after allegedly stealing merchandise from a west suburban Kohl’s on Black Friday, according to the DuPage County State’s Attorney’s Office (DCSAO).

    Ilys Mary Ledesma Zapata, Christian Johan Saavedra-Omona and Braud Pineda Avendano were each charged with one count of burglary and one count of retail theft, both of which are felonies.

    According to the DCSAO, Ledesma Zapata, Saavedra-Omona and Avendano are alleged to have entered the Kohl’s found at 303 South Route 83 in Elmhurst around 1:01 p.m. Friday, where they picked out multiple clothing items and left without paying for them.

    Later in the day, the trio was alleged to have re-entered the store and stole more clothing items, after which they were detained by officers with the Elmhurst Police Department.

    DCSAO officials also said the stolen merchandise was alleged to be worth $504 in value and that Ledesma Zapata was in possession of a large magnet used to defeat anti-theft devices.

    https://wgntv.com/western-suburbs/three-venezuelan-migrants-charged-with-theft-from-west-suburban-kohls/

      1. I’m sure they were told back in Venezuela that you won’t be arrested for theft in the US, which is actually true in some places.

  20. And still to this day the medical fraudsters are taking credit for saving 3,5 million lives based on their flawed models. The real truth is that there is now over 20 million deaths as a result of the poison fake vaccines.
    And can I say ,the evidence shows by lung samples that the 1918 SPANISH flu was pneumonia.
    So, now out of China, they are trying to get a pandemic going, based on mysterious ailment hitting younger people.
    DOCTORS WHO ARE CENSORED ARE saying it’s mild pneumonia, totally treatable by meds.
    Seriously, the WHO is trying to build into declaration of Panademic over this
    These Frausters actually think they can create Panademic number 2, out of China, start their fear mongering, but this time it’s attacking younger people. Unbelievable.

  21. Let us not forget the fake footage of Chinesse people dropping in the street.
    Let us not forget that the actual mortality did not go up on the first year of Covid, and prior to the vaccines being administrated.
    Let’s not forget that China was ground zero for covid, yet the stats show they have one of lowest rates of deaths from Covid, without mass vaccination from Western vaccine.
    Let us not forget how Doctors were censored along with viable med treatment for Covid, for the one solution fake vaccine.
    Let us not forget that Mal practice deaths were taking place in hospitals bribed by allowing people to die, that could of been treated.
    Let us not forget the wealth transfer from the lock downs, the small business that was destroyed, and the useless masks that created disease, obstructed air, and damaged social development of millions.
    Let us not forget the evidence shows this was a pre planned Panademic, where all the dots add up to deliberate first degree murder, with billions also injured from minor to total disability.

    1. I recall that just two months ago there were scare stories about the latest Covid variant, and that masks would be required again. A quick looksie at the worldomemters websites shows that the daily infection rate in the US is under 10,000, even though pretty much everyone is saying no to the lastest booster.

      1. the daily infection rate

        I wonder how they get the number. I don’t know anyone in the US who has gotten tested recently. Is the government still paying for the testing?

      2. I remember that, back in September I believe. Because these idiots STILL think that COVID is like flu and comes out of hiding in the winter. Nope, not these Omicrons. These variants survive the hot temps of summer and are more contagious than measles. I think everyone got mild Omicron over the summer and barely noticed it because they were all full up on Vitamin D. So when kids went back to school, they were immune. That’s my theory and it’s no worse than any other.

    2. a pre planned Panademic

      I believe that a Pandemic Response was preplanned, without knowing what the pandemic would be.

      1. Perhaps they had the mRNA tech waiting at the gate for a convenient reason to deploy it globally, even though it was (and still is) officially experimental.

        1. The mRNA technology has been around for maybe a decade previous to 2020 I think. Nothing they made of it ever passed trials (the rats died).

  22. I believe that not one fraction of this Covid Panademic wasn’t deliberate and pre- planned.
    The only question is what was actually released, how it was released.
    Releasing a bio weapon virus, that could wipe out humans and animals would be to risky. Besides one could not determine if it would go global or fizzle out.
    Targeted and controllable release makes more sense if you are going to do something like that.
    If your objective is to create a Panademic, than create a solution by a killer vaccine, than having PCR tests that register false positives would be necessary. THATS WHY the big push to get tested in that first year.
    The plan was,
    Establish that there was a Panademic, by fear mongering, fake PCR tests, fake footage from China, killing Olds by lack of treatment, fraud of claiming everything is covid, and bribe hospitals to get money declaring everything is covid, censor any dispute to narrative, or meds that cured any outbreaks. Don’t look at the odd pattern of the so called spread of the virus.
    So, once you establish a Panademic, and you have caused mass hysteria, than offer a solution of a fake vaccine, and claim its safe and effective.
    Than stage a big Vaccine Campaign violating known consent, fraud it’s safe and effective, use bribery to get compliance, than extortion by threat of job loss and mandates.
    Than, if you have people who didn’t take vaccine, demonize that group, threaten them with punishment, camps, obstruction of commerce or medical aid, or ability to buy groceries. Blame unvaxxed for disease still spreading.
    Once it becomes apparent vaccines don’t stop Covid, or the transmission of Covid, lie and.say that the vaccine prevented certain death, even if you got Covid
    Keep pushing vaccines and boosters in spite of overwhelming evidence the vaccine is a failed expiermental technology that doesn’t stop Covid, and only increases risk of death and injury.
    THAN COVER UP Vaccine death and injury by every conceivable distraction, making up fraud reasons for high death and injury, and even claim vaccine injury is new virus or new variant.
    Of course Science had to be bought off and compromised a long time ago, as well as Health protection agencies
    Fire Doctors, censor Doctors, attack Doctors or Scientist that dispute the narratives.Distract public by other attacks.
    Set up for next Panademic, and rinse and repeat the tactics, and solutions

    1. It’s damp freezing fog with temps in the 20s now up here in the Columbia Basin, and no homeless in sight, anywhere.

  24. ‘It’s currently worth less than we paid for it, so we are forced to short sell…We’re negotiating with the bank to accept a price lower than the house is worth’

    Well, that too Mike. But the real issue here is it’s less than you owe on the shack.

  25. ‘‘We are working on what some days feels like the impossible: cohabiting and co-parenting in a 1,200-square-foot home’

    Mom, it is still cheaper than renting.

  26. Nobody wants U.S. Treasury bonds
    Liz Hoffman
    Tue, November 28, 2023 at 8:54 AM PST·4 min read

    Once a symbol of America’s economic might and accepted as a global coin of the realm, they have fallen badly out of favor, with serious consequences for taxpayers, investors, and financial markets.

    Elementary economic forces — too much supply and not enough demand — have collided to create the worst stretch for U.S. government bonds since the Civil War. The government keeps borrowing to cover its budget deficits, while once-reliable buyers of that debt, both at home and abroad, have pulled back.

    The result: Investors are demanding the steepest yields since 2007. Auctions of fresh bonds that were once routine are now going terribly. And bond portfolios are getting absolutely hammered. The longest-dated Treasury bonds are in a bear market worse than the dot-com bust and almost as bad as 2008.

    The government is borrowing more than expected, increasing the supply of Treasurys and dinging their value. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is selling down its own holdings, dumping yet more bonds into a market that doesn’t really want them.

    “There’s just a lot less demand than there was even six months ago,” Goldman Sachs’ Jim Esposito said last week. “You can buy a 6-month T-bill that’s yielding north of 5%. Why wouldn’t you buy that instead of a long bond that’s yielding 4¾?”
    …
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nobody-wants-u-treasury-bonds-165407118.html

  27. ‘I’m seeing that some people who panic-bought post-pandemic without taking time to do more research are discovering they might not find their neighborhood ideal [for them] and want to move’

    ‘In Manatee County, the median sale price for single-family homes decreased by 12.8 percent’

    It’s a good thing everybody put 20% down Jana Mari.

  28. ‘I think we’re seeing buyers at the end of their funds, the end of their savings, and they just can’t do anymore…With house prices near record highs, and limited inventory, would-be buyers want flawless houses. ‘Buyers feel like they need everything,’ he said. ‘They’re paying top dollar, so they want everything to be perfect’

    So they are broke but demanding perfection Quinlan?

    ‘One house Quinlan recently listed for $520,000 went under contract in three days. He took over the listing from another agent, but convinced the seller to lower the price from $575,000, where it had been sitting with no interest. ‘If it’s overpriced, people are not going to come’

    Just like that. You gave it away.

  29. ‘In Orange County, there’s a couple core deals that traded at, call it, $450K to $475K a unit. If you were to build that product today, you’d be close to $650K a door’

    That’s not good news for the construction guys Sean.

  30. ‘Effectively, I think we could come in and buy it for what their loan amount is just to save them from foreclosure, but it’s a covered land play — well-located in the Southern California market’

    ‘While inherently a speculative investment to some degree, the covered land play is a responsible form than simply purchasing raw land with no improvements and hoping for growth to occur. Covered land plays give you the assurance that no matter what happens, you’re starting off on the right foot by covering the cost of operation.’

    ‘Here are a few examples of covered land plays that help illustrate the concept:’

    https://winterspringcapital.com/covered-land-plays-explained/

  31. ‘And activity will deteriorate further into the first half of 2024 as interest rates remain elevated, and supply floods the market’

    Et tu Brute!

  32. Brampton, Mississauga & Durham Real Estate Update – Your Luck Has Run Out – (Nov 22, 2023)
    Team Sessa Real Estate

    30 minutes ago

    In this episode we take a look at the current Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate home prices and market trends for week ending Nov 22, 2023. We also discuss how many pre-construction buyers have had their luck run out when planning to purchase for the sole purpose of assigning the property before it closes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-BDiGPRUQQ

    22:27.

  33. ‘If distress is a key element of getting a deal done, there is a healthy pool of potential deals. The multifamily sector accounts for $7.5B of outstanding distress nationally, with $65.7B of potential distress on the way, third-quarter data from MSCI indicates. MSCI found the sector had the highest potential for imminent trouble, accounting for almost a third of all at-risk properties. ‘They’re stuck in the pipeline, their carry costs have doubled, and these guys are running around going, ‘How do we make the next payment?’

    Brad, at the time money was free! It had been forevah and would always be so. When you are concerned about yer next payment, you are already changing addresses and shutting down phones.

  34. ‘What the problem now is, there’s no sales. It’s not only in Grey-Bruce. It’s all over Ontario.’ He said sales are ‘probably a little bit worse’ than pre-pandemic levels. Someone who before qualified for a $600,000 mortgage now qualifies for half that, he said. ‘So it’s making it impossible for people to get a mortgage.’ And people who locked in low interest rates for say five years are renewing at higher rates, which will see their mortgage payments ‘more than double,’ he said. ‘There’s going to be a lot of houses that come up that people can’t afford’

    Dammit Brad, this is that pesky price issue again.

    1. It’s very simple. Some losses will be taken and some bugs will get crushed.

      It will be very interesting if the bank cartel doesn’t lower interest rates out of compassion. Why would they, being predators?

  35. Biden will start emailing 813K borrowers about forgiven student debt

    The Biden-Harris administration has granted forgiveness for over $127 billion in student loan debt, benefiting almost 3.6 million borrowers.

    By: Haley Bull, Andrea Diaz
    Posted at 1:13 PM, Nov 28, 2023

    Starting Tuesday, about 813,000 student borrowers will receive an email from President Joe Biden notifying them that their loans have been fully forgiven.

    According to a White House official, the president is reaching out directly to those benefiting from his administration’s debt forgiveness initiative.

    https://www.10news.com/biden-will-start-emailing-813k-borrowers-about-forgiven-student-debt

  36. Following hair-of-the-dog stimulus measures, is it safe to assume China has recovered from its post-pandemic slump?

    1. Financial Times
      Chinese economy
      Chinese factory activity contracts in sign of economy losing momentum
      Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index falls despite government efforts to boost growth
      Workers at a solar photovoltaic module factory in Anhui, China
      The decline in Chinese factory activity presents a challenge for policymakers, who are under pressure to tackle a slowdown in the country’s debt-stricken property sector
      Joe Leahy in Beijing and Andy Lin in Hong Kong 4 hours ago

      China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the second month in November, indicating weakening momentum in the world’s second-largest economy despite increased government efforts to boost growth.

      The country’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 49.4 this month, lower than a median forecast of 49.8 in a Bloomberg poll and slightly below a reading of 49.5 in October. A reading below 50 marks contraction from the previous month.

      The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2, remaining in positive territory but marking the lowest reading since China was swept by Covid last December. It was also well below the Bloomberg analyst poll estimate of 50.9 and lower than October’s 50.6. The services industry activity component of non-manufacturing PMI registered a contraction at 49.3 points compared with a reading of 50.1 the previous month.
      …

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