thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

It’s Definitely A Deer In A Headlight Kind Of Look

A report from the Naples Daily News in Florida. “‘October had the highest number of new listings added to the market compared to any October since the pandemic’ in the Naples area, Vanderbilt Realty broker Dominic Pallini said, noting this will help with negotiations for those wanting to buy. ‘There were also 1,004 price reductions in October, basically a third of all homes for sale. If inventory continues to rise at its current pace, there will likely be more opportunities for buyers to negotiate.'”

WKRN in Tennessee. “The new RE/MAX National Housing Report is out for Greater Nashville. As the weather cools, Greater Nashville’s real estate market is doing something similar. ‘So buyers should be looking at new construction if you really want to get value that’s going to offset the higher interest rates…you can’t be shy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. So, you need to say, ‘Hey, this is the price I want to pay. I also want you to do X, Y and Z.’ And you’ll be pleasantly surprised with what sellers are willing to concede most of the time,’ said Jeff Checko, relocation director of The Ashton Real Estate Group of RE/MAX Advantage.”

The Des Moines Register in Iowa. “Last December, thieves broke the locks on the boarded-up building in West Des Moines, stealing beds, furniture and even a car that residents were forced to leave behind. But the worst part, residents at Stoneridge Condominiums say, has been stewing in limbo over the past year with their condo association and its hired independent loss adjuster, Tremaine Enterprises Inc. of Colorado, at loggerheads with Farm Bureau Financial Services and another insurance company over how much it will cost to restore the building and make it livable again. The story at Stoneridge is a cautionary tale for those who run and belong to homeowners associations.”

“Ana Poole, a resident who purchased a unit just a month before the fire last November, has no faith a resolution will be reached anytime soon. Her unit is one of 17 that suffered primarily smoke damage. Poole filed her own civil lawsuit asking that the complex be placed in receivership so a judge can ensure a fair agreement is reached. In the meantime, she said, she’s struggling financially. ‘Thank goodness I have a job,’ she said. ‘I couldn’t even sell my place if I wanted to.'”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “Sepideh Razipour and her husband never thought they could afford to be homeowners, but when their Rolling Hills Estates rental went up for sale, they scrambled to make the townhouse their own, pulling together savings and borrowing from extended family. But before they made their first mortgage payment, a massive landslide upended life on Peartree Lane, pulling eight neighbors’ homes down a nearby canyon and pushing others into different levels of structural purgatory. Razipour’s home survived unscathed, but the land movement damaged crucial sewer lines, which left her unit unlivable.”

“Now, almost five months later, utility repairs are stalled as officials worry about potential ground shifts, leaving Razipour’s family of four stuck in temporary housing. Costs for work on the slope — which is considered private property owned by the HOAs — has fallen on homeowners, with each of the almost 200 households, including those on Peartree Lane, now facing a fee of almost $24,000. ‘I assumed, in the beginning, we’re a developed country … everybody’s going to be involved and helping out, the county, the city,’ Razipour said. ‘But I’m not getting any help. … Where do we get that money from?'”

Bisnow Boston in Massachusetts. “The slowdown in home sales has come at an inopportune time for many Boston condo developers. Boston over the last several years saw a surge of high-end condo construction, with a series of new towers delivering hundreds of multimillion-dollar units. Those buildings have struggled to hit their initial sales targets due to the effects of rising interest rates, and this is forcing developers to take out loans to shore up their finances and try new sales strategies. Last week, Cronin Development received a $240M loan for its 114-unit St. Regis Residences, Boston development in the Seaport from Cottonwood Group. The developer put 10 units up for a ‘limited inventory bid sale’ in October in an effort to spur activity, and the units’ minimum bid was 20% below recent comparable sales, the Boston Globe reported. Last week, all 10 units sold to cash buyers, but the prices weren’t disclosed.”

From KUTV. “It’s no secret that Utah has a housing shortage, but there’s one big exception to that – at least for right now. Amid a building boom, downtown Salt Lake City is seeing a big bump in apartments, leading to a temporary oversupply, according to one housing analyst. ‘We’re seeing just a historic number of new apartment buildings come online downtown,’ said Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. Eskic said with roughly 5,000 new apartments coming to the downtown area in a two-year period – especially studio and 1-bedroom units – supply has temporarily exceeded demand. ‘In the short-term, you can say we’ve overbuilt,’ Eskic said.”

CBC News in Canada. “Charlottetown mortgage broker Steve Swyer is getting a lot of calls these days from clients wondering how they are going to manage their mortgage renewals. Many of them don’t understand the magnitude of what they may be facing, Swyer told CBC News. They come in with an expectation of paying $50 or $100 more a month. ‘When you hit them with a $250 or $400 increase, it’s definitely a deer in a headlight kind of look at you. And saying, are you serious? Are you kidding me?’ he said. ‘More panic than worry. I’ve had a couple of clients already that are actually putting their house on the market for sale.’ For a more recently purchased home with the Island’s rapidly increasing housing prices, those costs could easily jump up $700 or $800 a month on renewal.”

Blog TO in Canada. “It’s no wonder why home sales in and around Toronto have been tanking for months, but stakeholders are growing increasingly concerned with the snowballing impacts of a lack of market activity. While some builders are giving away literal gold to attract buyers, dozens of new condo complexes that were on the way this year have been deferred, with the wealthy companies funding them ‘unable to make an economic case for proceeding in the current market.’ Luckily in the case of resale homes, the current lack of market attractiveness has meant a shift into more of a buyers’ territory, where sellers are desperate and listings are plentiful: last month had 50 per cent more active listings than October 2022, per the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), but 5.8 per cent lower sales volumes.”

From Bloomberg. “Interest rate hikes have upended residential real estate markets across Europe but no where is the wave of distress more evident than in Germany, according to Bob Faith, Chief Executive Officer of Greystar Real Estate Partners. Prices soared and rental yields on German residential properties were squeezed to record lows during the zero-interest-rate era as investors poured into real estate in search of returns. ‘Germany is probably the most distressed in Europe right now, we are very closely looking through some interesting situations,’ Faith said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ‘I think there will be some investors that took too much debt when it was cheap.'”

From ABC News. “An increase in the short-term sale of properties — those that are bought and sold within three years — has hit a 10-year high, with the biggest spike in regional Queensland, according to a national outlook of housing trends. CoreLogic has revealed a sharp increase in the repeated sales of properties in regional Australia, hitting a 10-year high of 18.9 per cent. Previously, short-term sales were commonly due to properties being ‘flipped,’ but the data suggests mortgage stress has now created ‘proactive selling’ conditions.”

“Ipswich real estate agent Mitch Edwards has been a local all his life and started working in the industry in 2006. He’s seen this trend play out in real-time, with a client recently making the move to sell an investment property they only secured ‘a couple of years ago.’ ‘With the rate rises on that property, as well as his own personal property, his broker [suggested] to sell,’ Mr Edwards said. The real estate agent has also seen some first home buyers, including friends, who have had to refinance their home loans in an attempt to stay afloat after their rates ‘almost doubled.’ ‘I have seen a lot of people that are getting appraisals because with the rate rises that have happened, they may need to sell in the new year,’ Mr Edwards said.”

“Mr Edwards said there was a risk that the seller’s market could flip to a buyer’s market ‘if there’s a large number of people in the same boat’ who are also looking to sell. ‘We did see it [happen] before in 2008, where say a home sold for $320,000, we were reappraising it at $299,000,’ Mr Edwards said. ‘That’s a $20,000 loss — not a lot of people have [that much money] sitting in their back pocket. It is distressing [hearing] ‘Hey Mitch, we can’t afford to live here anymore, we need to sell.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 81 Comments

  2. ‘you can’t be shy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. So, you need to say, ‘Hey, this is the price I want to pay. I also want you to do X, Y and Z.’ And you’ll be pleasantly surprised with what sellers are willing to concede most of the time’

    That’s the spirit Jeff!

    1. “Nothing ventured, nothing gained”? Stop lying, Realtor Boy. Catching a falling knife when the real cratering hasn’t even begun yet is the height of stupidity.

  3. ‘I assumed, in the beginning, we’re a developed country … everybody’s going to be involved and helping out, the county, the city,’ Razipour said. ‘But I’m not getting any help. … Where do we get that money from?’

    You know what they say about assuming Sepideh.

    2. Fun Factoids:

      Which city has the most homeless?
      In 2022, Los Angeles had the nation’s largest homeless population.

      LOS ANGELES – The 2023 Greater Los Angeles Homeless Count results were released today, showing a 9% rise in homelessness on any given night in Los Angeles County to an estimated 75,518 people and a 10% rise in the City of Los Angeles to an estimated 46,260 people. Jun 29, 2023. (stats via Google)

      Yet, Billions of dollars have been allocated via voted measure HHH [and many other taxes / scams / schemes] , which vowed to ‘end homelessness’.

      Result: Ever increasing homeless population, and a bloated bureaucracy of overpaid administrators, consultants, and homeless housing costing $750k/unit.

      Quoting an old expression: “Be careful what you vote for, you might actually get it”

  4. ‘I think there will be some investors that took too much debt when it was cheap’

    Take a look in the mirror Bob.

  5. ‘So buyers should be looking at new construction if you really want to get value that’s going to offset the higher interest rates…you can’t be shy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

    Always Be Closing. The indescribably stupid people conned by REIC shills into buying into a bursting housing bubble are going to learn nothing’s more expensive than regret.

  6. ‘Thank goodness I have a job,’ she said. ‘I couldn’t even sell my place if I wanted to.’”

    But yer not throwing away money on rent, so there’s that.

  7. ‘But I’m not getting any help. … Where do we get that money from?’”

    Not my problem, Sepideh.

  8. The developer put 10 units up for a ‘limited inventory bid sale’ in October in an effort to spur activity, and the units’ minimum bid was 20% below recent comparable sales, the Boston Globe reported.

    That’ll make for some hatred & discontent from previous buyers.

  9. Re: I think there will be some investors that took too much debt when it was cheap.

    Wasn’t that the very idea behind artificially forcing the interest rates down to “support the economy”? It is interesting how the policymakers can goose people into making bad decisions and then escape being blamed for them . . .

  10. They come in with an expectation of paying $50 or $100 more a month. ‘When you hit them with a $250 or $400 increase, it’s definitely a deer in a headlight kind of look at you. And saying, are you serious?

    Maff is hard, yo.

  11. “It’s no wonder why home sales in and around Toronto have been tanking for months, but stakeholders are growing increasingly concerned with the snowballing impacts of a lack of market activity.

    Cascading effects as buyers refuse to overpay for shacks in a bursting housing bubble? Long buttered popcorn.

  12. ‘I think there will be some investors that took too much debt when it was cheap.’”

    Die, speculator scum.

  13. It is distressing [hearing] ‘Hey Mitch, we can’t afford to live here anymore, we need to sell.’”

    Gosh, what happens when all those FOMO bubbleonians discover they’ll have to bring tens of thousands of dollars to the table upon closing? How many levered-up debt donkeys can get their hands on that kind of money? I fear there is a real possibility we could see cascading effects as millions of FBs simply stop paying the mortgages on their depreciating shacks, and squat in place until the eviction process catches up to them. Got popcorn?

  15. “…a massive landslide upended life on Peartree Lane, pulling eight neighbors’ homes down a nearby canyon and pushing others into different levels of structural purgatory.”

    Welcome to ROLLING HILLS Estates

    2. “…pulling eight neighbors’ homes down a nearby canyon…”

      Gotta’ look at the bright side: Upslope neighbors now have a better view of the canyon.

  16. Living on the island province of PEI is punishment enough….We traveled there recently ,after they allowed non-vac folks to cross the Big bridge again…They all have rudy red faces from the constant winter winds , And no, the stacks of firewood on rural porches ,are not to sell, but to survive the winters on …If they’d know how nice the weather is in the South, they’d all head here .and dump those over-priced shacks ….with Canadian morgages that re-set every 5 years ….

  17. Posted this late yesterday but figured it deserved a full day in the sun.

    Biden will start emailing 813K borrowers about forgiven student debt

    The Biden-Harris administration has granted forgiveness for over $127 billion in student loan debt, benefiting almost 3.6 million borrowers.

    By: Haley Bull, Andrea Diaz
    Posted at 1:13 PM, Nov 28, 2023

    Starting Tuesday, about 813,000 student borrowers will receive an email from President Joe Biden notifying them that their loans have been fully forgiven.

    According to a White House official, the president is reaching out directly to those benefiting from his administration’s debt forgiveness initiative.

    https://www.10news.com/biden-will-start-emailing-813k-borrowers-about-forgiven-student-debt

    1. In the article above you can click on…

      SEE MORE: White House revising student loan forgiveness plan to help borrowers

      White House revising student loan forgiveness plan to help borrowers

      The Education Department released a draft of new federal rules paving the way for a second attempt at student loan relief by the Biden administration.

      By
      Bianca Facchinei
      Posted: 7:49 p.m. EDT Oct 31, 2023

      The battle over student loan forgiveness isn’t over just yet. The Biden administration is working on another proposal, this time targeted to help specific borrowers after the Supreme Court shut down a much wider debt relief plan this past summer.

      The new proposal revealed Monday aims to help certain borrowers, including those whose balances exceed what they originally owed or have loans that they’ve been paying off for 25 years or longer.

      Borrowers who used loans to attend career-training programs that led to “unreasonable” debt or insufficient earnings, and borrowers who are eligible for other forms of forgiveness but didn’t register would also be entitled to relief.

      The Education Department is also considering adding a fifth category for “those who are experiencing financial hardship that the current student loan system does not currently adequately address.”

      In a statement, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said: “President Biden and I are committed to helping borrowers who’ve been failed by our country’s broken and unaffordable student loan system. We are fighting to ensure that student debt does not stand in the way of opportunity or prevent borrowers from realizing the benefits of their higher education.”

      1. President Biden and I are committed to helping borrowers who’ve been failed by our country’s broken and unaffordable student loan system.

        What’s broken is the Higher Ed Industrial Complex, with its runaway costs.

        2. “…What’s broken is the Higher Ed Industrial Complex, with its runaway costs….”

          Absolutely!

          Economics 101

          As soon as government starts printing money and subsidizes *anything* the price goes up.

          Apparently these geniuses inside government are unwilling/unable to understand arithmetic.

  18. I’m seeing lots of “articles” in my news feed touting the wonders of heat pumps. Once proclaimed that “furnaces are so 1922”.

    Another said “move heat, don’t make heat”. Funny, that’s what A/Cs do, and they are power hungry.

    Plus there is never any mention of how the electricity needed will be generated.

    1. I mentioned the other day that an Irish colleague (you meet lots of people working for a multinational) spends $500 a month to heat his tiny house with a heat pump. Electricity costs about 40 cents a kilowatt hour in Ireland.

      As mentioned above, I’m seeing lots of articles claiming that heat pumps are the way to go. They make hay about Norway, where the majority use heat pumps. Of course Norway had cheap hydroelectric power at the time. But now that everyone made the switch to heat pumps, electricity prices have shot through the roof and like my Irish colleague, Norwegians have to pay an arm and a leg to warm their homes. Many are having to turn their thermostats way down and wear a jacket while indoors.

    2. “how the electricity needed will be generated”

      This was on my journeyman electrician’s exams.

      The electrons that reverse cycle 60 times a second in alternating current to power heat pumps are *different* than the electrons fueling any kind of “dirty” appliances, like an air conditioning unit.

      I don’t have the time to explain it to all you civilians right now, just trust me. These electrons are different, they’re special.

      1. any kind of “dirty” appliances, like an air conditioning unit.

        A lot of the propaganda articles are telling people that heat pumps are just like A/C’s, with the unspoken understanding that since you already have an A/C, that you should swap your furnace out for a heat pump!

        The thing is, even though electricity is relatively cheap where I live (12 cents a kwh) it costs me more to cool my house in the summer than to warm it with natgas in the winter. And the indoor/outdoor temperature difference is much, much higher in the winter.

        So now, double or triple the price of electricity and you too could spend $500 a month (or more) to keep your house at a balmy 60F in the winter.

      2. *different* than the electrons fueling any kind of “dirty” appliances, like an air conditioning unit

        Appreciate the sarcasm, as a heat pump is an inside out A/C.

        Einstein invented a refrigerator that ran on natural gas. My nana had one. Always thought it was very interesting.

        Those poor Norwegians, having bought into the Agenda so well. I had a heat pump (RV version) on my boat for a few years. Air to Air. It was about useless below 40 degF. Now I have a water to air A/C with a restive heater for cold weather. It is always about the temperature difference inside to outside.

  19. Car Dealers Want Biden To ‘Tap The Brakes’ As EVs Sit Unsold

    WRITTEN BY EDITORIAL BOARD ON NOV 29, 2023.

    You can subsidize a buyer into the auto showroom, but you can’t make him buy.

    That’s the word from some 3,900 car dealers across the country who on Tuesday wrote President Biden that electric vehicles are piling up unsold on their lots.

    They want relief from his onerous and unrealistic EV sales mandate. [emphasis, links added]

    EV sales are slowing though manufacturers have slashed prices and increased discounts. Consumers paid on average $50,683 for an EV in September, compared to $65,000 a year ago.

    The reason, as the dealers explain, is that “early adopters formed an initial line and were ready to buy these vehicles as soon as we had them to sell.”

    But most consumers aren’t “ready to make the change,” in part because EVs are still too expensive.

    Many apartment renters also don’t have garages for home charging, and public charging networks are spotty with one in four not functional, according to one study.

    “Customers are also concerned about the loss of driving range in cold or hot weather,” the auto dealers say. “Some have long daily commutes and don’t have the extra time to charge the battery. Truck buyers are especially put off by the dramatic loss of range when towing.”

    The dealers want the Administration to “tap the brakes” on its proposed tailpipe emissions rules that would effectively mandate that EVs comprise two-thirds of car sales by 2032.

    Automakers might meet the government’s quotas in leftwing cities where Teslas are a political fashion statement, but price and convenience matter more elsewhere.

    A new study from the University of California, Berkeley’s Energy Institute at Haas finds a “strong and enduring correlation between political ideology and U.S. EV adoption.”

    About half of EVs registered as of last year were to “the 10% most Democratic counties, and about one-third to the top 5%,” the study notes.

    This suggests that “it may be harder than previously believed to reach high levels of U.S. EV adoption.”

    The dealers’ letter is an important political signal that progressive climate coercion isn’t as popular as Democrats think. Americans don’t like to be told what to do or what they must buy.

    As the dealers put it, “Many people just want to make their own choice about what vehicle is right for them.” Imagine that.

    https://climatechangedispatch.com/car-dealers-want-biden-to-tap-the-brakes-as-evs-sit-unsold/

    1. The dealers want the Administration to “tap the brakes” on its proposed tailpipe emissions rules that would effectively mandate that EVs comprise two-thirds of car sales by 2032.

      Not to mention the impossible to meet CAFE standards, which even hybrids will have a tough time achieving.

      But Joe Car Dealer doesn’t get it: TBTB don’t want the masses to have a car, any car. The people who matter will have EV’s, everyone else will ride the bus. If Joe Car Dealer goes out of business, that’s fine with them.

    2. “…As EVs Sit Unsold”

      I have a very simple solution to this problem:

      Dealers should lower their reservation prices to market value. Their inventories of unsold EVs could disappear in a week if they priced to market value, which reflects the dampening effect of higher interest rates on purchase demand.

      1. I think the dealers are hoping/pleading for better factory incentives. But automakers have already seen the handwriting on the wall: buyers don’t want EV’s, so they are quietly ramping down production of batteries and EV’s. As for huge rebates to clear out existing inventory, I wouldn’t hold my breath. I think dealers will still have 2023’s on the lot when 2025 rolls around.

        1. Another thought: If Gruesome steals the election next year, it might be the last chance to get an ICE vehicle with a decent powertrain. And by that I mean an SUV with something better than a 1 liter. 3 cylinder turbo, 140HP to move a 4000 lb car.

    3. “About half of EVs registered as of last year were to “the 10% most Democratic counties, and about one-third to the top 5%”

      Nice virtue signal you got there, too bad almost all of it is powered by burning coal 🙁

    1. Was reading that one of the reasons the EU is pulling the rug out from under Ukraine is because their economies are falling apart and winter is coming.

    1. Business / Investing
      Jamie Dimon says to be prepared for recession
      By Nicole Goodkind, CNN
      2 minute read
      Updated 5:10 PM EST, Wed November 29, 2023
      Hear major bank CEO’s prediction about a possible recession
      00:51 – Source: CNN

      New York CNN —

      JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning to Wall Street on Wednesday: Inflation could rise further and recession is not off the table.

      “A lot of things out there are dangerous and inflationary. Be prepared,” he said at the 2023 New York Times DealBook Summit in New York. “Interest rates may go up and that might lead to recession.”

      Governments across the globe need more money, he said, to fund the green economy, remilitarize and to address energy crises — and that will all be inflationary.

      “I’m cautious about the economy,” he said. The labor market in the United States has been resilient, but “inflation is hurting people.”

      Stimulus money handed out during Covid shutdowns and quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve had injected “drugs directly into our system” and caused an economic “sugar high,” said Dimon. But that’s fading. “I think quantitative easing and tightening and these geopolitical issues can bite,” he said.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/29/investing/jamie-dimon-recession-jpmorgan-economy/index.html

    2. Stock Market Crash of 1929
      October 1929
      On Black Monday, October 28, 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined nearly 13 percent. Federal Reserve leaders differed on how to respond to the event and support the financial system.
      Crowd in front of the New York Stock Exchange, October 1929
      Crowd in front of the New York Stock Exchange, October 1929
      (Photo: Bettmann/Bettmann/Getty Images)
      by Gary Richardson, Alejandro Komai, Michael Gou, and Daniel Park

      The Roaring Twenties roared loudest and longest on the New York Stock Exchange. Share prices rose to unprecedented heights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased six-fold from sixty-three in August 1921 to 381 in September 1929. After prices peaked, economist Irving Fisher proclaimed, “stock prices have reached ‘what looks like a permanently high plateau.’”

      The epic boom ended in a cataclysmic bust. On Black Monday, October 28, 1929, the Dow declined nearly 13 percent. On the following day, Black Tuesday, the market dropped nearly 12 percent. By mid-November, the Dow had lost almost half of its value. The slide continued through the summer of 1932, when the Dow closed at 41.22, its lowest value of the twentieth century, 89 percent below its peak. The Dow did not return to its pre-crash heights until November 1954.
      …
      https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1929

    3. US recession warning sets the stage for rate cuts
      Cecile Lefort, Markets reporter
      Nov 30, 2023 – 4.02pm

      Bond investors are underestimating the magnitude of US interest rate cuts next year because the world’s largest economy is headed into a hard recession, setting the stage for lower interest rates in Australia.

      That’s the view of an economist at Australia’s largest bank, even after data on Wednesday showed the US expanded at an upwardly revised annualised pace of 5.2 per cent in the third quarter, the fastest rate in almost two years. Forecasts were for a gain of 5 per cent.
      …
      https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/us-recession-warning-sets-the-stage-for-rate-cuts-20231130-p5eo0e

    4. Bulls Hold Ground Amid Yield Curve’s Bear Steepening: What’s Next?
      Michael Kramer | Nov 29, 2023 02:42AM ET

      It was another pretty slow day on Tuesday, with most of the action in the bond market, with the 2-year falling by 15 bps, resulting in the yield curve steepening with the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread rising by around eight bps to -42 bps.

      It looks like the move lower in the 2-year started around 8 am, which was when the German preliminary CPI reading for November came in below estimates, falling by -0.1% m/m vs. last month’s flat reading, while year-over-year CPI rose by 3.5% versus October’s 3.8%. The harmonized CPI for Germany for November fell -0.5% versus -0.2% in October while coming in at 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in October.

      Those were some pretty big drops in inflation for Germany, and it sent the Germany 2-Year yield down seven bps on the day, which helped push the US 2-year down. The US 2-Year took another step down around 10:35 am ET when Chris Waller noted that the Fed could cut rates some next year if inflation rates in the US keep coming down.

      This would seem like common sense, given that if inflation rates come down and the Fed Funds rate doesn’t go down, monetary policy would grow more restrictive, as real rates go higher. So, one would expect the Fed to cut as inflation comes down. Of course, the question is how much inflation comes down and how much the Fed cuts.

      If the curve continues to steepen, S&P 500 is likely to sell off. The curve has been driving stocks for a while now, and while stocks did not sell off yesterday, a steepening yield curve will make it very hard for stocks to rally.
      …
      https://m.investing.com/analysis/bulls-hold-ground-amid-yield-curves-bear-steepening-whats-next-200643965

    5. Yahoo Finance
      Business Insider
      Markets are betting the US can avoid a recession, even as more than half the 50 states are seeing their economies slow
      Phil Rosen
      Mon, November 27, 2023 at 5:04 PM PST·2 min read

      The number of states showing economic contraction in the three months to October jumped from 16 to 27, per the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

      Still, seven of the 10 most important states by GDP contribution are expanding.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-betting-us-avoid-recession-010422259.html

  23. IIRR-Russia is a large supplier of natural gas to Europe, and a cold winter is approaching. If you don’t want to wear two sweaters to bed at night, don’t anger the Russian Bear.

    1. The Nordstream pipelines are gone. I’m sure there are still ways to get some Russian natgas to Europe, but last I remember there was still a boycott.

      The Hungarians do have a direct pipeline and they buy theirs from the Russkies. A Czech colleague vigorously disapproves of that arrangement. and claims that the Hungarians will regret it. I don’t see how being able to keep your home warm this winter is something to regret, but I suppose that since I’m not European that I just don’t get it.

    2. So this crazy woman just waltzed into his home, which if he had half a brain would be heavily locked and wired. And she just randomly picked him, when it would be much easier to randomly shoot people at a WalMart or a McDonalds.

      Maybe it really happened as described in the media, but these days one is always suspicious of what is reported in the news.

        1. He was a “consultant” and “advocate”, meaning that he never got his hands dirty. That sort of stuff is done by low paid social workers, not important people who attend meetings and conferences.

      2. “The suspect, identified by police as Jameelah Elena Michl, 36, was arrested on suspicion of murder at the scene.”

        No images of the suspect?

  25. CBS News (11/29/2023):

    “The typical American household must spend an additional $11,434 annually just to maintain the same standard of living they enjoyed in January of 2021, right before inflation soared to 40-year highs, according to a recent analysis of government data …

    many Americans say they aren’t feeling those gains, and this fall more people reported struggling financially than they did prior to the pandemic, according to CBS News polling. Inflation is the main reason Americans express pessimism about economy despite its bright points, which also include stronger wage gains in recent years.

    But even as inflation is now cooling rapidly, many consumers say they aren’t feeling it, with a new Bankrate survey finding 60% of working Americans say their income has lagged inflation has over the past 12 months.”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-households-need-extra-11400-these-states-its-even-higher/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=251671293

    60% is that a lot?

  26. 5 GTA Cities With The BIGGEST Price Drops For Homes
    Honest real estate talk 🇨🇦
    3 hours ago

    GTA real estate market has been going down since May of this year. Home prices have sometimes dropped over 20% and condo prices doing a little better than detached homes.
    I compare average prices for detached homes for cities in the Greater Toronto Area. Cities like Brampton, Mississauga and Oshawa in the east end made the list.
    Are we in a real estate crash? Has the real estate bubble burst in Canada?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHcwLIPblzI

    2 minutes.

    1. “…renting out their luxury LA homes for as high as $150K+ per month”

      Who rents a place for $150K a month!?

  28. ‘where sellers are desperate and listings are plentiful’

    This would have made a good title.

    Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham Real Estate Update – Don’t Avoid The Red Flags – (Nov 22, 2023)
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    1 hour ago

    In this episode we take a look at the current Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices and market trends for week ending Nov 22, 2023. We also discuss the issues that arise in real estate transactions when red flags are avoided early on in the transaction process.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIstA0oufng

    19:25.

    2. “…73% of the Canadian mortgage portfolio is uninsured. That means there is NO government backing for mortgages that go into default…”

      More than a few lenders are already dead.

  32. Cher Threatens to Leave the Country If Donald Trump is Re-Elected: ‘I Almost Got an Ulcer the Last time’

    By Gil Kaufman
    10/18/2023

    Cher has never been shy about her feelings about Donald Trump. The pop icon spent much of Trump’s one-and-done White House term calling out the now four-times indicted former reality TV star for his divisive policies and pronouncements, at one point dubbing DT “President Troll.”

    https://www.billboard.com/music/pop/cher-threatens-leave-country-donald-trump-re-elected-1235447066/

    I think Cher collaborated with Elizabeth Warren on this song back in 1973.

    Half-Breed

    https://youtu.be/RQ0lpiXQ__Y?si=OP8gkG6KqrP46lEP

    1. “I was with two trans girls the other night – and of course my own child [Chaz is trans].”

      Is Chaz in low gear, high or reverse?

  33. REAL ESTATE
    Pending home sales drop to a record low, even worse than during the financial crisis
    PUBLISHED THU, NOV 30 2023 10:00 AM EST
    UPDATED THU, NOV 30 2023 11:46 AM EST
    Diana Olick

    – Pending home sales in October dropped to the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking them in 2001.

    – Mortgage rates in October rose sharply, with the average on the 30-year fixed loan briefly soaring over 8%.

    – Rates have since pulled back but are still above 7%, and supply is still tight.
    …
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pending-home-sales-drop-to-record-low.html

  34. Story about to post brings to mind Japan’s real estate prices, circa 1989.

    Just remember: The sun don’t shine on the same dog’s azz all the time.

    1. Three US cities make list of most expensive in world
      A cost-of-living crisis is slamming these coastal cities.
      By Alejandra O’Connell-Domenech | Nov. 30, 2023
      New York’s Lower Manhattan skyline, including the One World Trade Center, left, is reflected in water on April 6, 2013, as seen from Liberty State Park in Jersey City, N.J.
      (AP Photo/Mel Evans)
      Story at a glance
      New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco are three of the most expensive cities on the planet to live in, according to a new report.
      New York tied with Geneva as the third most expensive city on earth in this year’s Economist Intelligence Unit’s Worldwide Cost of Living report.
      Last year, the Big Apple tied with Singapore for the top spot on the ranking.
      New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco are among the top 10 most expensive cities on the planet to live in, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Worldwide Cost of Living 2023 report.

      Last year, New York City tied with Singapore as the most expensive city in the world.

      But Zurich bumped New York from its top rank this year, in part because of the strength of the Swiss franc and the high prices of groceries, household goods and reaction, according to the report. The Big Apple is now tied for third in the world.

      Los Angeles and San Francisco, meanwhile, came in as the sixth and tenth most expensive cities on the list.
      …
      https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/poverty/4335962-three-us-cities-make-list-of-most-expensive-in-world/

Comments are closed.