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The Property Slump Sweeping The Globe

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The tough housing market has been especially hard for condo owners. Rufina Cappelli has lived in her St. Petersburg condo for 28 yards, but this month, she’s grappling with a new reality — the skyrocketing cost of her HOA dues. ‘It was $376 for years,’ said Cappelli. ‘Then, suddenly in October, they said it was going up 43 percent. The Florida condos have allowed their reserves to get very low, and this condo is kicking the can down the road.’ New mandates from Florida legislators are prompting many condo owners to sell their properties before the assessment fees are due. ‘People are competing to sell their properties,’ said Sara Taylor, a real estate consultant in Clearwater. ‘We’re seeing price reductions to entice buyers to come in, and we’re seeing people who just can’t afford it having to list their condos and find another place to move.'”

“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal choice. Local market dynamics also play a large part in whether it’s a good or bad time to sell, says Katie Severance, a Realtor with Douglas Elliman in Palm Beach, Florida. ‘In some areas, selling now is the right thing to do because prices are still climbing — or, at least, are not yet falling,’ she says. ‘In other markets, prices are falling fast, so it might be best to wait to sell until the market correction stops and interest rates come down and stay down, which will spur sales once again.'”

“High rents have become a fact of life in the Bay Area. But as landlords try to deal with increasing vacancies, some are trying to sweeten the deal for apartment hunters with incentives, including free rent. ‘There are a lot of incentives going on right now for people looking for a place to rent. Such as reduced security deposit, first month free, or the second month free,’ revealed Noah Cerezo, a real estate agent representing Esposo Properties, overseeing more than 300 rental units. ‘For sellers, it’s hard to sell when they’re stuck on prices that they were able to sell their homes for in 2021 when rates were low. And now, you barely have any buyers that can even qualify for a loan. So what happens to these buyers? Well, now they have to rent.'”

“A growing share of Austin homeowners are selling their houses for less than they paid for them, per Redfin. Some Austin area homeowners lost upwards of five figures on their sale this year amid higher interest rates. Nearly 5% of Austin metro homes sold at a loss from August to October — up from 0.75% a year ago. The median loss was around $35,000. Losing money on your home sale is becoming more common across the U.S. The highest share and largest losses were in San Francisco. Roughly 1 in 7 owners there lost money on their home sale, with a median loss of $122,500.”

“A fourth price chop was unleashed by the sellers of a lakefront Kenilworth mansion in a bid to draw buyers for a property that has been on the market for more than a year. The 11,000-square-foot home at 501 Sheridan Road in the North Shore suburb is down to a $7.9 million asking price, a 43 percent reduction since it was first listed at $14 million in 2022. The property trimmed $1 million off its asking price on Tuesday from its last price of $8.9 million. Nancy Nugent, an agent with Jameson Sotheby’s International Realty representing the house, said the family of the sellers are more ready to part with the home after a year on the market, and that it’s been a sentimental process.”

“‘I said to my client, ‘Look, we need to push this out to some lucky buyer that understands the value,’ because I have a lot of people … circling the block,’ she said. ‘I know who they are. They’ve come to the house one way or the other. They’re waiting and watching and I said we need to give the buyer the best value proposition in terms of the pricing.’ The home isn’t the only high-priced listing to take a price cut in recent weeks. So did the most expensive listing in Chicago, a Lincoln Park mansion which recently shaved another $4.4 million off its ask, as well as the second-priciest listing at the exclusive St. Regis condo tower, where a unit got a $1.1 million reduction down to $7.6 million.”

“Buying and building in New York City has always been expensive, but rising interest rates and inflation, combined with a lack of government incentives, have brought the commercial real estate sector in the nation’s largest city to a crawl, some of the industry’s biggest names said. Of the $75B to $150B of office debt coming due in the next three years, Hines Senior Managing Director and Head of New York Jason Alderman said ‘all of it is going to be underwater.’ ‘From an office perspective, I was doing some simple math,’ he said. ‘It’s depressing, and it’s kind of hard to talk about.’ Deals were done four years ago with the expectation of rent growth and a positive spread, which has entirely disappeared, he said. ‘A [4% cap rate] on $1 of income that you thought was going to become $2 within 10 years — the values are probably down 50% just on that one bit of math,’ he said.”

“As winter activities ramp up across Canada, so will the home prices nearest to ski hills, according to a report by Royal LePage. At the beginning of this year, home prices in ski regions did post a year-over-year decline, Royal LePage noted, largely due to high interest rates and the increased cost of living. ‘Uneasiness’ about the economy also played into the decline in price, the report reads. In British Columbia, where sellers of homes near ski hills this year saw, at times, double-digit price losses, single-family detached homes are expected to rebound slightly in 2024, the report notes. In the Sun Peaks region, home prices dropped 21.3 per cent between 2022 and 2023.”

“Housing starts are falling way behind targets to provide more housing supply, according to data from the City of Windsor. Municipalities across Canada are engaging in a big push to build more housing to keep pace with demand and help bring more supply to the market to rein in affordability. Brent Klundert, chair of the Windsor Essex Home Builders Association, says many factors are at play. ‘Once those interest rates move as they did, they become, you know, a dead project because they’re just not feasible anymore. You can’t make the numbers make sense,’ he said. ‘All of a sudden, the feasibility of that project isn’t as great as when that application first went in.'”

“UK property transactions fell 17% in October as high interest rates are making it harder to climb the property ladder. Anna Clare Harper, CEO of sustainable investment adviser GreenResi, said the fall in housing transaction is not surprising. ‘Firstly, we are still coming down from a bubble caused by COVID and stamp duty reductions, which created double-digit house price growth for much of the past three years,’ she said. ‘Secondly, the higher base rate is designed to cool demand and therefore pricing in the economy, and it is working to plan.'”

“The property slump sweeping the globe has claimed a new high-profile victim: René Benko, an Austrian-born retail and department-store magnate who also co-owns New York’s Chrysler Building. Benko’s main holding company, Signa Holding, said Wednesday it is filing for insolvency in Austria. The move, similar to U.S. bankruptcy procedure, puts billions of dollars of company debt at risk and casts uncertainty over a property empire that includes stakes in the largest department store chains in Europe, upscale British retailer Selfridges and a now-stalled Hamburg tower that would have been among the tallest in Germany.”

“Signa, which valued its property portfolio at nearly $30 billion at the peak, doubled down on investments as the market crested. It buckled over recent months because of rising interest rates and poor performance of Benko’s trophy holdings. The collapse has already led some European banks to mark down the value of their loans to the group. Signa said efforts to negotiate with lenders in recent weeks had failed and it now intends to undergo a restructuring. It pointed to troubles in the retail sector. ‘Investments in this area have not brought the expected success,’ it said.”

“A debt crunch at Swedish property group SBB has left the European Central Bank at risk of losses and highlighted the 26 billion euro ($29 billion) exposure it built up to Europe’s now stricken real estate sector through its crisis-era bond buying. Two sources familiar with the matter said that the ECB’s SBB bond holdings totalled a few hundred million euros. One SBB bond is now trading at roughly half its face value, showing investors were pricing in some risk of an eventual debt default. When SBB, which is now junk-rated, recently bought back bonds at a small discount to stabilise its finances, the ECB was among the sellers, one person familiar with the matter said.”

“In total, it spent around 5 trillion euros on government debt, company bonds and other assets, which it usually holds until maturity. Yet as far back as 2016, the ECB warned of a property bubble in parts of Europe, while at the same time buying bonds in real estate companies in the region under the scheme. ‘It is hard to understand how the ECB ended up buying the bonds of property companies, while at the same time warning of the risks of property price inflation,’ former ECB chief economist Otmar Issing told Reuters. ‘It contributes to inflating the bubble, while risking its reputation as well as financial losses,’ he added.”

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This Post Has 117 Comments

  1. ‘A [4% cap rate] on $1 of income that you thought was going to become $2 within 10 years — the values are probably down 50% just on that one bit of math’

    What Jason is saying here is they paid so much cuz they expected 1 peso to turn into 2. And the magic pixie dust formula broke it off in their a$$.

    ‘‘It is hard to understand how the ECB ended up buying the bonds of property companies, while at the same time warning of the risks of property price inflation’

    It’s cuz they’re stupid Otmar.

    1. It’s cuz they’re stupid Otmar.

      ‘Muricans are going to pay a terrible price for letting a criminal private banking cartel called the Federal Reserve gain control of our money issuance.

      1. You and I and the others here are like the weeping prophet Jeremiah forth telling of what will surely come and no one is listening. Even Lindyman the other day said america couldn’t handle a 25% unemployment rate and there no reason why it couldn’t happen again when the money runs out. For real, where has our wealth gone? Selling each other homes?

  2. The Florida condos have allowed their reserves to get very low, and this condo is kicking the can down the road.’

    The era of “extend and pretend” is drawing to a close, and the destruction of Yellen Bux “wealth” is going to be downright Biblical. Got popcorn?

    1. “…Got popcorn?…”

      Add some extra butter when total holding costs exceed even the mortgage payment.

      If you ask an average FB what their total property holding costs are many will respond with “What’s a holding cost?”

  3. ‘In some areas, selling now is the right thing to do because prices are still climbing — or, at least, are not yet falling,’ she says.

    Realtors are liars.

  4. ‘There are a lot of incentives going on right now for people looking for a place to rent. Such as reduced security deposit, first month free, or the second month free,’ revealed Noah Cerezo, a real estate agent representing Esposo Properties, overseeing more than 300 rental units.

    Let’s dispense with the gimmicks, shall we? Price the rent correctly for the market, or stop wasting everyone’s time.

  5. Nearly 5% of Austin metro homes sold at a loss from August to October — up from 0.75% a year ago. The median loss was around $35,000.

    This is as good as it gets, Greedheads of Austin. Things are really going to get Barnum & Bailey when the FBs who FOMO-bought at the peak of the scamdemic bubble can’t possibly bring enough cash to the table to get out from under their rapidly depreciating shacks, and decide to squat in place until lenders get around to evicting them. Tiimmmbbbrrrr!

  6. ancy Nugent, an agent with Jameson Sotheby’s International Realty representing the house, said the family of the sellers are more ready to part with the home after a year on the market, and that it’s been a sentimental process.”

    The main sentiments being greed & delusion. Mr. Market doesn’t care about your delusional wish price, sellers. Now get to sawin’ and slashin’ like you mean it, or keep chasing the market down.

  7. They’re waiting and watching and I said we need to give the buyer the best value proposition in terms of the pricing.’

    Sounds like Nancy the Realtor is getting hangry on her diet of ramen noddles & canned sardines.

  10. We’re at the point in the rollercoaster ride where the 1/3 of the riders in front are pointing down but still are a split second away from rapid acceleration.

  11. Yet as far back as 2016, the ECB warned of a property bubble in parts of Europe, while at the same time buying bonds in real estate companies in the region under the scheme.

    One of these things is not like the other.

  13. Germany Gets Honest About What Net Zero Will Cost

    If you had “net zero causing Germany’s government to collapse” on your 2023 bingo card, congratulations—you may end up a winner. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration is falling apart because it turns out someone will have to pay for decarbonizing the eurozone’s largest economy.

    This shocking and horrifying revelation is brought to you by Germany’s highest constitutional court, which ruled in mid-November that Berlin’s favorite budget gimmick violates the balanced-budget amendment. The amendment, known as the debt brake, limits the federal general-budget deficit to 0.35% of gross domestic product in any year unless Parliament declares an emergency.

    The amendment was passed in 2009, but budget discipline has been a potent political issue in Germany for decades. Politicians love to promise fiscal restraint and hate to abide by it, so successive (West) German governments devised a workaround even before the amendment forced them to. By establishing special funds—called Sondervermögen—with their own revenue streams and borrowing authority, the government could shift a portion of its expenditures off its balance sheet.

    A big portion. There now are 29 special funds, with the largest among them allowed to borrow and spend over multiyear periods up to €869 billion, all of it backstopped by taxpayers but none of it folded into the general budget, where it would be subject to the debt brake. Before the court ruling, special-fund net borrowing in 2023 was expected to reach €147 billion, compared with on-balance-sheet borrowing of €45.6 billion. The constitutional court finally has caught on.

    The specific target of November’s ruling was €60 billion in unused borrowing authority left over from the pandemic emergency. Since that money wasn’t borrowed and spent for Covid-related purposes three years ago, Mr. Scholz’s administration planned to borrow and spend it on the net-zero transition in the future. The court ruled such “emergency” funds can’t be repurposed in this way.

    At a stroke, €60 billion has vanished from the budget. And that might not be the only disappearing cash. Finance Minister Christian Lindner—never enthusiastic about any of this spending anyway—believes a separate pot of money slated for energy-price subsidies also may run afoul of the newly articulated constitutional requirement. The size of that fund: €200 billion.

    It’s worth recalling why all this spending is so urgent: Nearly two decades into an epochal energy transformation, the project now known as “net zero” is an enormous flop.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/germany-gets-honest-about-what-net-zero-will-cost/ar-AA1kOtR1

    1. If you had “net zero causing Germany’s government to collapse” on your 2023 bingo card, congratulations—you may end up a winner.

      I know most politicians aren’t scientists for financial people but I hope they see the harm these policies can cause before it’s too late

    2. LOL, so we see that even if a country has a law “requiring” a nearly-balanced budget, the politicians still find a way to spend considerably more than is coming in.

  14. San Diego Market Watch – Real Estate Update For November 30, 2023
    Eric and Deva Edelman – San Diego Homes
    16 hours ago

    Let’s check out what’s happening right now in the San Diego housing market!

    Last week, closed sales dropped to the lowest number ever recorded in the history of the San Diego MLS, as high interest rates continue to take a toll on the market.

    Inventory of homes for sale dropped last week, after several weeks of gradual increase. Right now, new listings are slightly outpacing pending sales.

    A scarcity of homes on the market is keeping property values fairly strong for now. However, if inventory resumes its upward climb, prices could soften.

    If you’re thinking about selling your home soon, now is the time to talk to a real estate professional.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23mbty1Ihfg

    4 minutes.

    1. “Last week, closed sales dropped to the lowest number ever recorded in the history of the San Diego MLS, as high interest rates continue to take a toll on the market.”

      If the San Diego Union-Tribune housing article yesterday mentioned this, it got lost in the fine print behind the ‘real estate is red hotcakes’ headline.

      1. Business
        San Diego home prices rising 2nd fastest in the nation
        Pacific Beach and Mission Beach looking south in San Diego.
        The S&P Case-Shiller Indices said San Diego moved up to its highest spot in the 20-city ranking since August 2021. Pictured: Homes in Pacific Beach and Mission Beach.
        (K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
        The S&P Case-Shiller Indices said San Diego moved up to its highest spot in the 20-city ranking since August 2021
        By Phillip Molnar
        Nov. 28, 2023 11:57 AM PT

        San Diego home prices are, once again, rising at one of the fastest rates in the nation.

        The San Diego metropolitan area’s annual home price increased 6.5 percent in September, said the S&P Case-Shiller Indices report released Tuesday. It was the second-highest in the 20-city index, behind Detroit, and San Diego’s highest showing in just over two years.

        Lack of homes for sale across the nation was cited by analysts as the biggest reason for climbing prices. In the San Diego metropolitan area — which includes all of San Diego County — there were 2,101 home sales, marking the lowest ever recorded for a September in records going back to 1988.

        Prices were up 3.9 percent nationwide, despite rising mortgage rates. In the last week of September, the average interest rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 7.31 percent, said Freddie Mac. That was up from 6.7 percent at the same time last year.

        “Even as rates began to rise quickly earlier this fall, buyers were able to put more money down — or buy in cash — which continued to put upward pressure on prices,” wrote Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant.

        She wrote that it is likely home prices will start coming down in the winter because of a typical seasonal slowdown, and a slight increase in listings.

        The Case-Shiller Indices track repeat sales of identical single-family houses — and are seasonally adjusted — as they turn over through the years. The San Diego County median resale single-family home price was $930,000 in September.
        …
        https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2023-11-28/san-diego-home-prices-rising-2nd-fastest-in-the-nation

        1. Rising prices at a steadily declining rate of increase against collapsing sales volumes is a hallmark of a bubble in the parabolic blowout phase, just before it pops.

          Keep yer powder dry, mateys.

          1. But I’ve been assured a housing bubble burst can’t happen again, because all debt donkeys have sound fundamentals!

          2. I remember this all from reading comments here back in the mid-2000’s. The slow train wreck. It was the end of the world in 2008 when volume dropped to near zero. And here we are again.

    2. “However, if inventory resumes its upward climb, prices could soften.”

      Isn’t this about the time when investors head for the exits, rather than having their azzes handed to them?

          1. TYVM for your response. I hadn’t looked at the listings previously. Yowza, this is some significant price appreciation. SD is super Hot. Both properties are beautiful to behold.

  15. ‘We’re seeing price reductions to entice buyers to come in, and we’re seeing people who just can’t afford it having to list their condos and find another place to move.’

    Between rate hikes and much higher condo fees, the monthly needed to purchase one of those at last year’s market value must have skyrocketed.

    Ergo market value must have CR8Red.

  16. In other markets, prices are falling fast, so it might be best to wait to sell until the market correction stops and interest rates come down and stay down, which will spur sales once again

    I think the usual financial advice is: Buy low, sell high. You seem to have it backwards.

  17. Newsom DeSantis debate – charts looked bad for CA and Newsom wouldn’t answer any questions … Newsom bragged about his progressive tax structure taking money from the middle class and giving it to I have no idea who ? Homless ? special interest groups ? french laundry ?

    1. Under normal circumstances all of Clownifornia’s problems would be an instant disqualifier for Gruesome, his candidacy would be DOA. But we are living in Heinlein’s “Crazy Years”, so anything is possible. Plus there is the the dem ballot box stuffing machine, which I expect will be upgraded and tuned up.

      1. Under normal circumstances all of Clownifornia’s problems

        I liked the poop map. I have told people before about the poop maps and they don’t believe me until I actually show them the maps.

        they will vote blue any who.

    2. It’s not just me. Two ZH comments from Newsom’s lies in the debate:

      Cal is ground zero for election fraud. During gruesome’s recall I watched the yes vote tallie drop by over 100K votes on live tv. In the 2020 election I didn’t get my ballot in the mail like I always do, went to the polling location, told the clerk i didn’t get my ballot, she looked in the system and said “do you live on such and thus street?”, I said “nope”. Had to fill out a provisional ballot which was probably thrown in the trash.

      Numerous people said they showed up to vote to throw pretty boy out…and they’d be told “You voted already” when they clearly hadn’t.

      1. Hmm, all that evidence of fraud yet no one filed a lawsuit? We all know how Mr. T’s “election fraud” lawsuits went. But that usually happens when you have zero credible evidence.

        1. ‘Killer Jab?’ 24% of Americans Say They Know Someone Who Died from COVID Vaccine, 42% Would Sue Big Pharma: Poll

          A new survey may explain why so few people are lining up to get a COVID vaccine this year.

          The Rasmussen poll found that 24 percent of respondents said they knew someone who had died from side effects of the shot — and 42 percent expressed an eagerness to join a hypothetical class-action lawsuit against the vaccine makers. The survey asked three questions:

          ・”Do you know someone personally who died from the COVID-19 virus?”

          ・”Do you know someone personally who died from side effects of the COVID-19 vaccine?” and

          ・”If there was a major class-action lawsuit against pharmaceutical companies for vaccine side effects, how likely would you be to join the lawsuit?”

          Forty-seven percent said they knew someone who had died of COVID.

          Perhaps adding to the poll’s validity is the fact that it showed almost no difference between Republicans, Democrats and the politically unaffiliated. “For example, 25% of Republicans say they know someone personally who died from side effects of COVID-19 vaccine, as do 24% of Democrats and those not affiliated with either major party,” Rasmussen reported.

          Despite the apparent willingness of many to join a lawsuit against pharmaceutical companies over the vaccines, that’s unlikely to happen, according to LifeSite News. “Federal law currently immunizes them from liability for their products’ effects,” the outlet reported.

          https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/killer-jab-24-of-americans-say-they-know-someone-who-died-from-covid-vaccine-42-would-sue-big-pharma-poll/ar-AA1jmoXW

          As the speaker pointed out, they have civil immunity, but not criminal.

          1. https://election-integrity.info/2020_Election_Cases.htm

            Many cases were dismissed on procedural or jurisdictional rather than substantive grounds.

            Trump prevailed in 4 out of 8 cases decided on the merits

            GOP Plaintiff prevailed in 15 out of 18 cases decided on the merits.

            GOP Defendant prevailed in 3 out of 4 cases decided on the merits.

            Trump and/or the GOP plaintiff prevailed in 23 out of 31 cases decided on the merits.

  18. – China is the archetypal centrally-planned, command and control socioeconomic system. Despite the best efforts of the CCP, their society and economy are circling the bowl.

    – Total power and control, but ghost cities for millions, one child policies, Uyghur genocide, burning (the most) coal in the world. Nazis.

    – How then, will all of the CCP wanna-be’s, with less power and control end up any better off when everything comes tumbling down?

    – Recall (former) USSR and every other failed State, or failing State Communist sh*thole.

    – Humpty Dumpty.

    – Free markets I hardly knew ya!

    1. one child policies

      Didn’t China remove the one child policy some years ago? Not that it matters, as their young adults, like those in most other countries, are not interested in having kids.

      1. Didn’t China remove the one child policy some years ago?

        China ended the one child policy in 2016.

        Also, like everything else in China, local enforcement was different all over the country. In many areas, it was more of a tax policy — for a second kid, you were required to pay a tax to obtain a Hukou (household registration). Hukou is required to go to school, a hospital, get an ID card, etc. No tax statement, then the abortion patrol came to your house.

        Some rural areas had lax enforcement as the local government needed the labor. Or perhaps they were scared what pissed off farmers with forcibly aborted kids may do. It’s not like the army is going to bring tanks for some random backwater.

        I knew lots of Chinese with multiple siblings when I lived there. Like everything else with that country, there is tons of variance and nuance. It also doesn’t help that the Anglophone media are mostly five star journalists who can’t speak Chinese and therefore know nothing and print nonsense.

        FWIW Evan Osnos is one of the few American journalists that knows what he’s talking about regarding China.

  19. Has Powell finally raised the white flag and surrendered to the Wall Street pundits who keep predicting that interest rates will fall any day now?

    1. Financial Times
      7 minutes ago 08:00
      Powell says ‘premature’ to speculate on when Fed might cut rates
      Colby Smith in Washington

      Jay Powell sought to push back on speculation that the Federal Reserve had won its fight against inflation, indicating it was too soon to both rule out further tightening as well as start discussing rate cuts.

      “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” the chair of the US central bank said on Friday just before the scheduled quiet period ahead of the final policy gathering of the year in mid-December.

      Even though the Fed has held rates steady since July at a 22-year high, uncertainty about the inflation outlook and concerns about financial conditions easing further has kept officials from both signalling more definitively that it has reached a peak in interest rates and discussing the parameters for lower borrowing costs.
      …

    2. Will the rate cut cheerleaders force the Fed into hiking further, to maintain a credible threat against inflation that remains persistently above 2 percent?

      For comparison, 2 percent inflation taxes away half your dollar’s value in 36 years, while at 3 percent inflation, it takes only 24 years to lose half a dollar’s worth of value.

        1. I don’t know, but at that rate, in 15 years, the national debt will have almost equaled the unfunded liability of Social Security and Medicare.

          1. I don’t know, but at that rate, in 15 years, the national debt will have almost equaled the unfunded liability of Social Security and Medicare.”

            I wonder how the government will deal with that ? Not good

        2. They are going to have a hard time containing inflation and Treasury yields at that rate of spending. To make matters worse, high Treasury yields add to the deficit.

          Time to revisit QE and hope it doesn’t worsen inflation?

        1. Financial Times
          US interest rates
          Traders boost US rate cut bets despite pushback from Fed’s Jay Powell
          Investors brush off central bank chair’s warning that ‘progress must continue’ in inflation fight
          Fed chair Jay Powell: ‘While the lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, that progress must continue if we are to reach our 2% objective’
          Colby Smith in Washington and Jennifer Hughes in New York
          8 hours ago

          Jay Powell has sought to push back on speculation that the Federal Reserve had won its fight against inflation, even as traders boosted bets that the US central bank could start cutting interest rates as early as next March.

          In a speech on Friday, the Fed chair indicated that it was too soon to rule out further rate rises or to start discussing cuts.

          “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” he said, just before the start of a quiet period preceding its final monetary policy meeting of the year.
          …

          1. Danielle DiMartino Booth says, “Households whose credit cards are maxed-out are increasingly turning to Buy Now, Pay Later schemes.”

            The Grinch would say, “Broke aŠŠ losers!”

  20. Condo Crazytown Is Here
    Angry Mortgage Podcast
    4 hours ago

    Airbnb in trouble? Will people have to sell those Airbnb Condos, Assignment Sales look like a ticking timebomb, how many people bought 4 Condos with just ONE Bank Pre-approval & won’t be able to fund a mortgage on Closing Day? So many questions not enough answers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KKV4X3YTvo

    6:32. K-da.

  21. The National Associaton of Realtors is predicting housing price declines in 2024!

    Is this a sign that the Housing Bubble is ready for hospice care?

    1. U.S.
      Housing
      Real estate
      Economy
      20 US Cities Where Home Prices are Expected to Fall Next Year
      Nov 29, 2023 at 2:42 PM EST
      By Alexander Fabino
      Reporter, Economy & Finance
      Housing prices could tumble in 2024, according to a forecast from Realtor.com. Twenty cities in particular are expected to see significant drops in housing prices in the coming year.

      After years of skyrocketing home prices, major U.S. cities are anticipating a reversal, with home prices forecasted to fall in the coming year, according to the new Realtor.com report.

      Among the 37 cities analyzed in Realtor’s report, these 20 are forecasted to see the steepest declines in home prices next year.

      Austin, Texas, is expected to see the steepest drop in home prices, with a 12.2 percent decline anticipated. St. Louis, Missouri, will see housing prices fall 11.7 percent and Washington’s housing prices will fall about 10.2 percent in 2024, according to Realtor.com.

      The projected shift in the housing prices is part of a broader trend influenced by several factors, Realtor said in its report, including elevated mortgage rates, changes in buyer behavior and the evolving economic climate. Affordability becomes a more pressing concern, and the impact is expected to be felt across various sectors of the housing market, from existing home sales to new construction, signaling a shift in the dynamics of buying, selling and renting.
      …
      https://www.newsweek.com/housing-market-shift-2024-home-prices-fall-major-cities-realtor-report-1848086

      1. That’s a major shift in messaging from their traditional claim that “real estate always goes up.”

        Perhaps a lightbulb went on when someone realized that if no end users can afford to buy a shack, then realtors are out of work.

        1. Mark the date!

          LOL that they only predict -2.3% for Las Vegas, which has the most recession-sensitive economy anywhere. If the housing bubble does start to burst, methinks this will lead to some Las Vegas vacations being cancelled.

  22. Our rental saga continues. Apparently, I’ve insulted our landlord (the Queen of Las Vegas Real Estate) with my lowball counteroffer in response to a 10% raise.

    Lots of emails and one heated telephone conversation. The length of the last revised extension was reduced to six months, “so you can find a place, because you obviously can’t afford this one.” That’s certainly better than a month. I’m sick of this place anyway. Besides it being a shabby sh!thole, we’ve had too many sad times here. I think it might have the hoodoo. Biggest concern are the pets.

    When speaking to her, it was like I was a subject duking it out with a haughty feudal lord. I landed several punches that were met with silence. I think the real problem all these years was her former, long-time PM tried not to deal with her at all, so it had to be really bad for him to even tell her about a repair request (most were ignored.) I think he was sick of her shooting the messenger (him); it was obvious he didn’t like her. He upped and closed his business, leaving her with no records whatsoever, including our lease.

    Waiting for the next round. She may be right that she could get much more for the place, even in bad condition, because people are so used to putting up with this crap. I wish her the best of luck.

      1. 🤣👍🏻 She’s hilarious.

        The at least ten years old dishwasher broke. She said, “I gave you a new dishwasher!” I replied, I didn’t ask for one, I wanted it fixed. In any case, I’d been fixing the stupid thing like clockwork every six months for years with a $5-10 part and instructions on YouTube. This last fix I couldn’t do.

        “I gave you $500 for the fire!” Nope. Maybe the PM pocketed it.

        “I didn’t have to replace the rug!” It was burned. I asked her if she wanted to see the pictures.

        “I’ve been good to you!” We’ve rarely spoken, so I had no idea. She let us walk around a huge pile of desiccated asbestos that fell from a ceiling collapse in the garage for four months. When she tried to get her non-English speaking handyman to clean it up, we stopped him. I know that, and the bill for professional abatement made her mad.

        Wacky 🤪

    2. I’ll tell you though Tarara, it is amazing how long decent people like yourself have been getting screwed by an out of control and out of whack housing and rental market. I really hope something goes your way soon, you damn sure deserve it.

      1. Well, I blew it in 2011 by objecting to my then LL pricing his house too high when we asked to buy it. It was too high, but then the govt intervened, and the place tripled in price over the next ten years. I figure the mortgage would have been around $400 tops. Oh, well.

    4. This sounds an awful lot like my Las Vegas landlord. I wonder if we’re neighbors, lol. Did new yellow signs with an updated community logo appear around your property this year?

      1. LOL, that would be funny. No, haven’t seen any. I rent on the east side, in a neighborhood called Paradise Crest.

        LL seems deliberately dense about what a dump her house is. Many of the houses here are palatial, but that’s not helping us any. Bc of her attitude, we’ve dubbed it the “Let Them Eat Cake” house.

        Landlords here have had it good for such a long time they’re out of control.

  23. Ok, so a government data administrator in the Netherlands, has just turned whistle blower in revealing the real data in that Country on the Vaccine death rate.
    A 21% overall death rate from the vaccines.
    I’m sure that this breaking story will be censored and the Scientist whistle-blower better beef up his security fast.
    Also, King Charles coming out with dire warnings on the doomsday Climate Change narrative.
    Talk about a new Panademic based on disease x, that is certain to hit, with China already implementing masks and lockdowns for their current outbreak affecting younger people this time.
    Bill Gates in the news pushing digital currency, as he is pushing vaccines, bugs and fake food and elimination of cow co2, and other solutions to the global emergencies of this world, that one man Bill Gates is king of the solutions.
    It’s getting entirely apparent now that the shocking One World Dictorship, planned by Monopoly Corporations, Rich Elites, Banks, Royalty, Trillionaire Families, Big Pharmacy, UN/WHO, and Countries like China in collusion.
    These Entities are now calling their power grab “Inclusive Capitablism” when they promote a partnership between global governments with private party RICH, which is Facism, with a Communist Twist.
    All tyranny and slavery, control of resources etc, are justified by these Fraudsters, based on contrived emergencies like Panademics and Climate Change Doomsday.
    The Grest Narratives, proven to be designed over a half century ago and set up by Rockerfeller to control the World.
    AI will take over 50 % of the jobs, and the useless eaters will live on a Universal Income, at the mercy of the Government. more likely, IMHO, they plan to eliminate these excess people as not fitting in to their NEW WORLD Order.

    1. Ok, so a government data administrator in the Netherlands, has just turned whistle blower in revealing the real data in that Country on the Vaccine death rate.
      A 21% overall death rate from the vaccines.

      So one out of 5 jabbed have died?

      I couldn’t find a link for this (of course the search engines would bury it).

      1. So, from watching a video (on info wars), it was 21% from a particular batch. That I think is feasible, as there have been stories about bad batches.. Also there is speculation that most people got placebos and that the death rate amongst those who got the real thing was high. Who knows?

    1. The number of rental listings I receive daily seems to be growing and growing. But regarding a new place, I have “the devil you know” kind of thoughts that don’t seem to occur to the LL. Dumb.

      She don’t think she remembers that the place was empty for at least four months before we moved in. Place is old and shabby, with a bizarre layout. When the original owners added to the back of the orig house, doubling the size, they didn’t remove the outside windows in what became an inner room (I hope I explained that clearly.)

      🙂 Well, the ghost in question would be my mother, and I wouldn’t mind that at all. She was funny as hell. Maybe we can take her with us.

      1. Oh, now I see you’re in a house. So you can ignore my other reply, lol. We don’t share landlords, though it sounds like yours and mine operate the same way.

        1. Houses, but no org, no HOA. Just the harsh judgment of your neighbors to keep you in line 😏

          Yeah, LLs do have a weird mindset. We knew we were going to get it in the neck since she’d had to spend $ lately. Many years there was nothing. Had to remind her it’s her house a couple of times. Since she “gave” us a dishwasher, I wonder if I can take it with me when we leave 🙄

  25. Anyone else notice that Realtor dot com is no longer including HOA’s in total monthly payments? Instead, they’re showing zero, in the cost breakdown, even though they’re disclosing them in the headline listing. Just get them in the door huh? I guess they’re thinking monthly is bad enough without 600-800 in added HOA’s that’ll only continue going up.

  26. I was reading about “the science” of setting your thermostat this winter. According to the World Health Organization, we should be setting it to 64F. You heard that right, 64F.

    Now, I know that my European colleagues can’t afford to set theirs to 70F, as I see them wearing jackets during zoom calls. And they pay $500 a month to kept their shacks at a balmy 64F.

    2. “According to the World Health Organization, we should”

      ^ Any sentence beginning with those words should be disregarded as total bullsh*t.

      1. “According to the World Health Organization, we should”

        I wonder what temp their thermostats are set at. I doubt it’s 64.

        1. And they want you to replace your furnace with a heat pump that will give you the choice of bankrupting yourself or freezing next winter.

  27. Forgot to add, thx to BlueSkye and jeff. I’m a little excited to move, but worried about the pets (main concern).

  28. Why Million Dollar Properties In Innisfil Remain Unsold
    Mark Turcotte
    4 hours ago

    In this eye-opening video, we delve deep into the intriguing topic of million dollar properties in Innisfil that simply refuse to sell. Get ready to uncover the surprising reality behind this seemingly baffling phenomenon. Have you ever wondered why these luxury properties are struggling to find buyers in Innisfil?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyS3-Hj3V24

    14 minutes.

    Struggling To Sell Your Condo In Barrie? Dropping The Price Could Be The Solution
    Mark Turcotte
    3 hours ago

    Are you finding it difficult to sell your condo in Barrie? Don’t worry, we have the solution for you! In this informative video, we will explain why dropping the price could be the key to successfully selling your condo. Selling a condo can be a challenging task, especially in a competitive real estate market like Barrie. However, by adjusting the price, you can attract more potential buyers and increase the chances of a quick sale.

    15:18.

    1. Condo In Barrie? Dropping The Price

      Base camp for the Canadian wilderness. Or, over an hour commute to a job in Toronto. Good ice fishing for Perch, what’s that worth?

    2. There are people so thick that they have to be TOLD that reducing the sales price makes it more likely you’ll sell? It’s a truism whether you’re selling a house or a pack of gum.

    1. POWER PLAYERS
      Charlie Munger lived in the same home for 70 years: Rich people who build ‘really fancy houses’ become ‘less happy’
      Published Fri, Dec 1 2023 2:54 PM EST
      Updated 3 Hours Ago
      Ece Yildirim
      Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway
      Lacy O’ Toole | CNBC
      For Charlie Munger, living in a relatively modest house wasn’t an accident — it was a conscious choice.

      Munger, the billionaire investor and longtime business partner to Warren Buffett, died on Tuesday at the age of 99. He’d previously filmed a wide-ranging interview with CNBC’s Becky Quick, which aired on Thursday evening, and discussed his rationale for living in the same California home over the past 70 years.

      “[Buffett and I] are both smart enough to have watched our friends who got rich build these really fancy houses,” Munger said. “And I would say in practically every case, they make the person less happy, not happier.”

      A “basic house” has utility, said Munger, noting that a larger home could help you entertain more people — but that’s about it. “It’s a very expensive thing to do, and it doesn’t do you that much good.”
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/01/charlie-munger-living-in-the-same-home-for-70-years-made-me-happier.html

      1. “…noting that a larger home could help you entertain more people — but that’s about it.”

        It’s cheaper to rent a ball room at a hotel with catering rather than buying a huge shack.

      1. ZH comment:

        Munger ( and buffett) invested in politicians — rented or leased them like timeshares

        — killed their competition — to their Toy Train Set — as Buffett smugly called BNSF

        killed crude oil pipelines — funded opposition groups in Nebraska to lobby against XL– bought obama / biden — but couldn’t buy trump ??

        and why is ZH reprinting the Lazy interview of BQ/ cnbc ?? ( the worst of financial media)

        munger got more than he ever gave — so move on .

  31. ‘For sellers, it’s hard to sell when they’re stuck on prices that they were able to sell their homes for in 2021 when rates were low. And now, you barely have any buyers that can even qualify for a loan. So what happens to these buyers? Well, now they have to rent’

    Well Noah, they are giving away bay aryan rentals right now. You can hop over to a better cheaper location when yer lease is up, for years. Oh and it’s miles cheaper than loanowning without the crater.

  32. ‘Deals were done four years ago with the expectation of rent growth and a positive spread, which has entirely disappeared, he said. ‘A [4% cap rate] on $1 of income that you thought was going to become $2 within 10 years — the values are probably down 50% just on that one bit of math’

    Plus is it’s a commie sh$thole Jason.

  33. ‘Once those interest rates move as they did, they become, you know, a dead project because they’re just not feasible anymore. You can’t make the numbers make sense…All of a sudden, the feasibility of that project isn’t as great as when that application first went in’

    And that shortage disappeared at exactly the same time Brent, crazy coincidence eh?

    1. “You can’t make the numbers make sense…”

      Those darned bankers want all the money; your profits too!

  34. ‘Signa, which valued its property portfolio at nearly $30 billion at the peak, doubled down on investments as the market crested’

    Aka doubled down bag holders.

    1. ‘Signa, which valued its property portfolio at nearly $30 billion, Owned René Benko,

      I feel bad for his great grand kids, they may have to actually get a job if this property crash continues

  35. Colorado,
    Info on NZ Gov Administrator whistle blower is on Steve Kirsch Substack, Inforwars, and other places.
    Steve Kirsch is saying this is the biggest proof so far from a Country on the vaccines killing at that high a rate.

  38. Those Who Cry “Far Right” Have No Idea What’s Happening in Dublin

    by David Thunder | Brownstone Institute
    December 1st 2023, 3:45 pm

    You might think that a government faced with a barbaric public stabbing of schoolchildren and an unprecedented night of rioting in its capital city would extend condolences to the victims, take a deep breath, and try to figure out how a city managed to spiral out of control on its watch. But instead, Thursday’s riots in Dublin were met by a shallow, one-dimensional analysis by all of the key authorities involved: to blame the “far right.”

    For example, Garda Commissioner Drew Harris blamed the violence on the streets on a “hooligan faction driven by far right ideology.” Taoiseach Leo Varadkar pledged at a news conference to “modernise our laws against incitement to hatred and hatred in general.” And Minister for Justice Helen McEntee said that a “thuggish and manipulative element” was using the earlier incident to “wreak havoc.”

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/those-who-cry-far-right-have-no-idea-whats-happening-in-dublin/

  39. From the local fish wrap:
    “Condominium prices in Henderson have dropped over the past year more than anywhere else in the country, according to a new report.
    The median condo sale price in the city was $269,000 in October, a 12.9 percent drop from the same month last year…
    …Condo owners in Henderson lost an estimated $110 a day over the past year in property value.”

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/housing/hendersons-condos-see-largest-sale-price-drop-in-nation-report-says-2956779

    1. Maybe they can schedule the After School Satan Club meeting on the same day they host the Drag Queen Story Hour in the morning.

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