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The Free Money Is At The Root Of All This History

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “According to the RMLS, the Portland market also saw its highest inventory in nearly five years. Portland-area real estate agents said much of the challenge for sellers is accepting that activity has slowed considerably in a very short period of time. ‘This is not two years ago where you’ll get 15 offers and not have to do repairs,’ said Adam Shepard, a broker with John L. Scott Real Estate. ‘Sometimes it’s hard to get them over the hump and realize it’s a different market. When you have inventory where the buyer can compare your home to 15 other homes in the immediate area, you don’t have the ability to say, ‘I’ll fix that later, let’s just get it on the market,’ Shepard said. You have to be show-ready Day 1.'”

“For John Coleman, selling his home meant adjusting his expectations in more ways than one. Coleman listed his four-bedroom Forest Park home last October, looking to downsize. He accepted an offer on the home within a couple of weeks, but the buyer’s financing fell through. Financing problems derailed three more offers before he finally sold the home this month. Coleman said in addition to reducing price of the home — he eventually dropped it from over $1.15 million to $999,000 — he briefly took the home off the market to make some improvements. Most buyers, he said, didn’t want to purchase a home that wasn’t fully updated. ‘I would have thought we were better off selling a blank slate,’ he said, noting that he hesitated to replace carpet or lighting fixtures in case the buyer wanted something different. ‘But nobody wanted to take anything on,’ Coleman said.”

“The residential real estate market was the worst in 2023 since the Great Recession in 2009. It’s a good year to put behind the industry and prepare for a better 2024 with lowering interest rates and increasing population, according to Phoenix REALTORS®. New construction is boosting the housing inventory as homebuilders brought 38.7% more new homes to market than in 2022. This was offset by a 23.5% decline in previously owned homes offered for sale. December is not expected to save the year, either. ‘Motivated home buyers and home builders are offering greater concessions this year than typically seen,’ said Butch Leiber, outgoing president of Phoenix REALTORS® Board of Directors. ‘Usually, there’s an average of $4,500 in concessions on a home, but this year, we’re seeing concessions worth $10,000 and more, including interest buydowns.’ The median sales price is steady for 2023 year-to-date. While the median jumped almost 16% in 2022 over 2021, it’s down under 5% for 2023 compared to 2022.”

“Some people trying to buy a condominium in South Florida but getting mysteriously rejected for a mortgage could be in for a jolt: The reason they can’t get a loan may be that the condo is on a secret quasi-governmental blacklist. News media reports and data leaks to a pair of law firms in New England and Fort Lauderdale have now confirmed what some in the condo industry suspected: that Fannie Mae, one of two federally chartered companies that help determine who qualifies for home mortgages, has for at least two years maintained a confidential database of condo buildings, including hundreds in Florida, that it won’t back for loans, typically because of maintenance or financial issues. After initially stonewalling, Fannie Mae has recently acknowledged the list’s existence.”

“Critics say they fault Fannie Mae not for the stricter standards, which many believe were overdue, but for not making its determinations clear and available to condos so they can address them. ‘There are things that weren’t done that needed to be done,’ said Leigh Katzman, a founding partner at Katzman Chandler in Fort Lauderdale, the second law firm behind the new website. ‘We believe that what we’re seeing now is a process of catching up with what’s been happening. It has caused the list to become larger, and it will become even larger. The people who have lived in condominiums in last the 20 years have paid too little. Now the next owners are going to pay too much. Many associations aren’t prepared for it. There’s a black storm coming. If I’m an owner in a building that’s blacklisted, and I’m hit by assessment for $10,000, normally I can refinance my unit. But now I can’t do that. Or else I sell the unit, but now I can’t sell, either. It’s like a perfect storm.'”

“After spending about 18 months seeking a buyer, a Malibu estate listed for $195 million by former Disney CEO Michael Eisner has quietly come off market, according to listing sites. ‘Since there are few comparable sales to justify the price, the owner usually puts a price tag of what they feel it is worth,’ Anthony Marguleas, founder of brokerage Amalfi Estates in Pacific Palisades said of ultra-luxe listings. ‘It is common for ultra-high-end properties to reduce 50 percent or more from their original starting price.’ Joyce Rey of Coldwell Banker Realty said one factor in the uptick in ultra luxe sales is price reductions. ‘When you have a difficult market, you have to price more carefully,’ Rey said. ‘If (ultra-luxe sellers) are getting offers, it is likely that they have reduced their list price. Additionally, many sellers are taking substantially less than the asking price.'”

“Starting quietly around 2010, extending wildly into 2019 and ending with a dull splat post-pandemic, there were a series of absolutely astounding flips of Bay Area commercial real estate assets that made investors unheard of returns no one expected or had seen before. Those days are entirely over for the time being, as we are witnessing a near value extinction event for office buildings plunging under $200 per square foot that is now spreading into other asset classes—perhaps more of a steep decline versus extinction within multi-family and land. Even the stalwart industrial market is feeling the pain with a cooling of tenant demand and value appreciation in that bright darling of the recent market. Amazon and others consumed the planet, moving all retail out of the corpses of shopping malls into thrumming automated distribution warehouses across the globe. Retail itself is entirely a case-by-case basis as that universe transforms, just look at the soon totally dark San Francisco Nordstrom mall.”

“The free money used to cure the Great Recession of 2008 is at the root of all this history. When interest rates are at or below inflation, the money is essentially free. Lacing steep interest rate increases with the remote work era was the office building doom whoop. A few personal battlefield notes and some data from CoStar on what did actually happen in the golden era of appreciation: San Jose: 152 N. Third St. office building sold in 2012 for $9.2 million, flipped in 2018 for $40 million, thank you We Work. Now in foreclosure. 2 W. Santa Clara St. office building sold in 2013 for $5 million, flipped in 2017 for $14.4 million. Now looking to convert to housing as the office market has dried up.”

“Both home prices and sales continued to trend downward in November as high interest rates continued to keep many prospective buyers on the sidelines. The national average home price fell 1.6% from October to $656,625, according to figures released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). That’s still 2% above year-ago prices, but now more than 20% below the peak reached in February 2022. Sales are now down 18% from their pre-pandemic levels. ‘Demand has indeed collapsed from the low-rate frenzy of 2021 and early 2022, but demographic demand is keeping activity from falling much further,’ wrote BMO’s Robert Kavcic.”

“Beijing and Shanghai have rolled out a fresh round of stimulus measures – including cuts to down-payment ratios and the extension of deadlines for mortgage repayments – as part of their latest efforts to boost demand in a stagnant housing market. New home prices across 70 cities also dropped, declining by 0.38 per cent in October compared with the previous month, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. This was their sharpest decline since February 2015. Homeowners have to offer discounts of up to 20 per cent to attract buyers, according to You Liangzhou, the owner of Baonuo, a Shanghai-based property agency. ‘The local home market may become bearish if no further support policies are introduced to shore up investor confidence,’ he said. ‘Lower down-payment ratios and lending rates can be of some help to the market, but removal of home purchase restrictions is desirable.'”

“At the tip of Malaysia, driving south towards the coast, there’s a strange sight in the distance: a dozen tower blocks on the horizon, which locals call ‘ghost city.’ In reality, it’s a Chinese-built mega-housing development. And on first impressions, it’s hard to believe that anyone actually lives here. Even in midafternoon, the long corridors in the towers are pitch dark. It feels more like a haunted house than a happy home. Forest City was a chance for people in China’s aspirational middle class to invest in a second home abroad, which they could then rent out to locals here. But the company behind the project, Country Garden, is facing debts of nearly $200 billion. Now, with cash drying up, Forest City is a surreal place — almost like visiting an abandoned resort.”

“As I stand in the shopping mall, basically half of it is still a building site. In front of me is a kids’ train. There’s no one on it, and the driver is just doing endless loops. ‘Normally around here, you’re on your own,’ said Nazmi Hamafiah, who used to live in Forest City. After six months, he decided to cut his losses and get out. He didn’t even mind losing his rental deposit. ‘It’s multibillion dollar project, it’s supposed to be good,’ he said. ‘It’s supposed to meet expectations but … frustrating.’ Many millions in China have invested their life savings in projects just like this — and they’ll be wanting some reassurance sooner rather than later.”

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This Post Has 90 Comments

  2. ‘confirmed what some in the condo industry suspected: that Fannie Mae, one of two federally chartered companies that help determine who qualifies for home mortgages, has for at least two years maintained a confidential database of condo buildings, including hundreds in Florida’

    Fannie and freddie are corrupt entities that operate like private mafia and have for decades.

    ‘We believe that what we’re seeing now is a process of catching up with what’s been happening. It has caused the list to become larger, and it will become even larger. The people who have lived in condominiums in last the 20 years have paid too little. Now the next owners are going to pay too much. Many associations aren’t prepared for it. There’s a black storm coming. If I’m an owner in a building that’s blacklisted, and I’m hit by assessment for $10,000, normally I can refinance my unit. But now I can’t do that. Or else I sell the unit, but now I can’t sell, either’

    Urban living is a scam Leigh. There will be tales of airbox woe for many years.

    1. ‘normally I can refinance my unit. But now I can’t do that. Or else I sell the unit, but now I can’t sell, either’

      BTW where this goes is predictable because the REIC has been doing this with failed condos for decades, especially in Florida and Chicago. Some guys with dirty hands and dirty lawyers will buy up a legal stake, and do something with the airboxes that fooks everybody else. Sometimes this can happen more than once for the whole building.

    2. Here I was thinking Fannie and Freddy were doing the right thing by avoiding mortgages in buildings that have problems. Though granted, they should be more transparent about this “blacklist.”

      1. ‘Here I was thinking Fannie and Freddy were doing the right thing by avoiding mortgages in buildings that have problems’

        No they didn’t avoid them, they encouraged them by the millions. For decades. Now the model takes a sh$t and they’re ‘we are out you double-secret probation condos!’ It’s a rug pull in a yuuge way.

        1. Ben, you can’t conflate the two time frames. Yes, for “decades” Fannie was a private company that took advantage of its government backing to feather its own nest with bubblicious encouragement of fog-a-mirror loans. But since 2008, Fannie went under full gov control and somebody there (starting with Ed DeMarco IIRC) thought about saving a few taxpayer bucks the next a condo building turns into an International House of Pancakes. This is a good thing.

  3. It’s a good year to put behind the industry and prepare for a better 2024 with lowering interest rates and increasing population, according to Phoenix REALTORS®.

    The “increasing population” is going to accelerate our national decline into Venezuela del Norte, and that won’t be helpful for either the quality of life, or shack prices.

    1. “…accelerate our national decline into Venezuela del Norte…”

      If you happen to visit Downtown Los Angeles, Venezuela del Norte has already happened.

  4. It has caused the list to become larger, and it will become even larger.

    Sounds like FedGov’s “terrorism” watchlists, which have now swollen to two million people.

  5. There’s a black storm coming. If I’m an owner in a building that’s blacklisted, and I’m hit by assessment for $10,000, normally I can refinance my unit. But now I can’t do that. Or else I sell the unit, but now I can’t sell, either. It’s like a perfect storm.’”

    Long buttered popcorn.

  6. “The free money used to cure the Great Recession of 2008 is at the root of all this history.

    I hope I live to see the day when “Zimbabwe Ben” Bernanke, Yellen the Felon, & BlackRock Jay are standing before an honest judge at a post-collapse tribunal in shackles and orange jumpsuits, awaiting summary justice for their central roles in causing a dollar collapse and pauperizing the former American middle and working classes.

    1. after reading this housing blog for so long, and seeing “Yellen the Felon” in print, my mind automatically adds “the Felon” whenever I see/hear/read “Yellen” from other sources!

      1. “Yellen the Felon” in print, my mind automatically adds “the Felon”

        My mind does the exact same thing. I just can’t help it, it just happens

  7. Many millions in China have invested their life savings in projects just like this — and they’ll be wanting some reassurance sooner rather than later.”

    Gosh, what happens if instead of reassurances, they get schlonged, bigly? I’d hate to see them take out their crater rage on the CCP.

  8. Personal Finance
    Does it seem like some people are obsessed with the idea of becoming homeowners, even if they may lose a lot of money as a result?

    1. Mortgages
      I had resigned myself to renting for life in California, but I asked a financial planner about another idea: moving somewhere I can afford to buy
      Written by Jackie Lam; edited by Libby Kane
      Dec 15, 2023, 5:45 AM PST
      Our experts answer readers’ home-buying questions and write unbiased product reviews (here’s how we assess mortgages). In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own.

      – If I stay in Los Angeles, I don’t expect I’ll ever be able to afford to buy a home.

      – However, I asked a financial planner what to consider before relocating somewhere more affordable.

      – He said the move is common for single women nearing retirement age.

      In recent years, I’ve grown comfortable letting go of any aspirations to be a homeowner and renting for life — especially if I were to stay single and continue living in pricey Los Angeles.

      However, at a recent brunch, one of my friends mentioned she had purchased a home for her brother in Georgia for the tune of $35,000 about 10 years ago. While I am fully aware there are far more affordable places to live in the country than Southern California, the chat with my friend sparked my curiosity. Intrigued, I did some research to find that homes in that area go for about $60,000.

      So what if I were to uproot and purchase a home in a less-expensive part of the US? “Wanting to buy a house later in life is common for single women who are older, and have a hard time because of the time and maintenance that goes into homeownership,” says Jovan Johnson, a certified financial planner and cofounder of Piece of Wealth Planning, a holistic, fee-only financial advisory firm based in Atlanta.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/moving-to-buy-property-financial-planner-advice-2023-12

  9. Have Wall Street’s bulls become too optimistic about near-term rate cuts?

    What if inflation doesn’t keep falling towards 2 percent on schedule?

    1. Financial Times
      18 minutes ago 06:45
      S&P 500 opens lower as Fed official tempers rate cut speculation
      Jennifer Hughes in New York

      A Wall Street rally was knocked off course on Friday after a senior Federal Reserve official cautioned against expecting interest rate cuts any time soon.

      Stocks had been poised to open higher but the S&P 500 dropped 0.2 per cent in early trading after John Williams, head of the New York Federal Reserve, said that rate cuts were not the priority for policymakers and that it was premature to be talking about a move lower in March.

      The comments damped the bullish spirit that had boosted markets since the Federal Reserve on Wednesday signalled that further rate rises were unlikely.

      The tech-heavy Nasdaq however clung to the earlier positive mood and stood 0.3 per cent higher.
      …

    2. CENTRAL BANKS
      Major central banks diverge on when the first rate cuts will come
      PUBLISHED FRI, DEC 15 2023 8:33 AM EST
      Elliot Smith

      KEY POINTS

      – The U.S. Federal Reserve sent risk assets rallying on Wednesday when it revealed policymakers were penciling in at least three cuts next year and four additional cuts in 2025.

      – On the other side of the Atlantic, the picture is very different. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday pushed back against market expectations for rate cuts.

      – European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde gestures as she speaks to the media following the Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, December 14, 2023.
      European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde gestures as she speaks to the media following the Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, December 14, 2023.
      Kai Pfaffenbach | Reuters

      The West’s major central banks all kept interest rates unchanged in recent days, but struck very different tones on the market’s much-anticipated cuts in 2024.

      The U.S. Federal Reserve sent risk assets rallying on Wednesday when alongside holding its benchmark rate at its current target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the Federal Open Market Committee revealed policymakers were penciling in at least three cuts next year and four additional cuts in 2025.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/15/major-central-banks-diverge-on-when-the-first-rate-cuts-will-come.html

    3. Business / Investing
      Wall Street is swept up in Fed euphoria. The rally could have more room to run
      Analysis by Krystal Hur, CNN
      5 minute read
      Published 7:45 AM EST, Fri December 15, 2023
      Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023.
      Samuel Corum/Bloomberg/Getty Images

      New York CNN —

      The Federal Reserve has kicked the year-end stock rally into overdrive. Investors say that it could have more room to run.

      Stocks have already enjoyed a widespread rally in recent weeks, clawing out of a months-long rut as a pullback in bond yields and signs of cooling inflation boosted investors’ bets that the Fed will soon stop raising interest rates.

      Then, the Fed on Wednesday held rates steady and signaled that it could cut rates three times next year, all but cementing that belief. While Wall Street isn’t in the clear just yet, investors are in celebration mode as it looks like the Fed could be done raising rates after a grueling tightening cycle.

      The Fed “meeting was an absolute game changer,” said Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital.

      The relief on Wall Street is palpable. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, which tracks seven different indicators to gauge market sentiment, is at the high end of the “greed” reading and nearing levels last seen in early August.

      The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday reached a record high for the second consecutive trading session, as Fed-induced euphoria swept Wall Street. The S&P 500 index is within reach of a new high, on pace to notch its longest weekly winning streak since October 2017.

      US Treasury yields have moved sharply down as investors adjust their rate expectations. The yield on the 2-year note fell to about 4.4% on Thursday. The 10-year yield fell to 3.93%, its lowest level since late July, according to Tradeweb.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading-fed-rally/index.html

      1. My guess it will crash sometimes next year when people realize that Trump is going to win the election and then crash again when some extraordinary event tries to hamstring trump right before the election. After that, I have no idea what happens. But I know none of it will be good.

        1. when people realize that Trump is going to win

          Biden impeachment for bribery. Trial bypassing MSM sufficient. Conviction by Senate neither necessary nor likely.

    4. Yes, Fed speakers are already backtracking on the pivot. It’s as if all these MSM articles are worthless noise.

      1. The noise is quite loud, and has stampeeded the Wall Street bull herd towards the nearest cliff.

        But it’s all good. As one of our regulars often likes to note, it’s the second mouse who gets to enjoy the cheese.

    4. Meanwhile, I just read that Matthew Perry died of Ketamine, with other associated drugs contributing. He was a total druggie.

      2. Yeah, I believe the media/gov on this one. They are certainly attributing all the recent SADS victims to everything EXCEPT the injection which shall not be named (it’s not a “Quaxxine”).

  11. 1:38

    Wall Street Silver
    @WallStreetSilv

    Can’t afford California …

    🔊 … “a room in Ventura County is $1,200 per month. $1,600 for a studio and they want you to earn 3x of rent to approve you. One bedroom apartment $2,300 per month. Two bedroom apartment $3,200 per month.”

    “When did living become a luxury? I can’t… Show more

    https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1728897681655742865?s=20

    1. His rant is valid, however, he needs to realize some important details about the area he chooses to live in. In the west there are many areas like that where the land is artificially scarce since it is surrounded by protected set asides. A town like Thousand Oaks is for all intents, monopolized. An average person should be moving on as the odds of winning are very low. If you find yourself working two jobs and can’t afford basic housing, it is time to seek opportunity elsewhere while you are still in good health. My personal policy is if equity is not available in an endeavor that I am interested in, then I am no longer interested and leave. It is important to embrace the power of no.

    2. 3x of rent

      3x $1600 is a little under $60K/year. If he can’t make more than that in CA, he needs to employ the decades-old Oil City Plan.

      For the newbies out there, the Oil City Plan is named for a former HBB poster name something like “ByeFlorida.” Her goal was to move to Oil City, Pennsylvania, where the living was very cheap. And why not. Unless this guy has a specific job that ties him to CA, he needn’t be there. There are semi-skilled jobs all over this country. You’re actually financially better off living in, for example, Buffalo or Cincinnati or Tucson or Idaho Falls, and working at Costco than you are as an entry level marketer in LA.

      1. Oil City

        I’ll be there tomorrow with my son. A lady who used to help with my kids needs some work done.

        1. Let us know what it’s like up there! I still have to wonder where people are getting their incomes from in small town like that.

          1. They produce natural resources and manufacture things. Also recreation in the national forest.

            My old friend is an accountant. Her husband used to be a long haul truck driver.

  12. In today’s episode of Projection via ZH: Ex-FBI Intel Chief Who ‘Investigated’ Trump-Russia Collusion Gets 4 Years In Prison For Colluding With Russia

    1. CRYPTOCURRENCIES
      From the ‘Forbes’ list to the abyss: The end of the line for three cryptocurrency visionaries
      Do Kwon (TerraLuna), Sam Bankman-Fried (FTX) and Changpeng Zhao (Binance) — once rising stars in the crypto sector — have left their leadership positions amid accusations of illegal practices
      Do Kwon — a South Korean citizen and the creator of TerraLuna — during his arrest in Podgorica, Montenegro, on March 24, 2023.
      STEVO VASILJEVIC (REUTERS)
      Álvaro Sánchez
      Madrid – DEC 11, 2023 – 16:25 CET
      …
      https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2023-12-11/from-the-forbes-list-to-the-abyss-the-end-of-the-line-for-three-cryptocurrency-visionaries.html

  14. New York Times (via Archive) — New C.D.C. Director Seeks to Foster Trust in a Battered Agency (12/15/2023):

    “Americans’ trust in the agency, and in science more broadly, was badly damaged by the coronavirus pandemic, and the loss of faith is particularly pronounced among Republicans. In a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, 38 percent of Republicans said they had little or no confidence in scientists to act in the public’s best interests, up from 14 percent in April 2020.

    At the same time, the C.D.C.’s winter vaccination campaign appears to be falling on deaf ears. On Thursday, the agency issued an alert warning that low vaccination rates for the flu, Covid and respiratory syncytial virus, known as R.S.V., could lead to “severe disease and increased health care capacity strain in the coming weeks.” And partisan divisions over vaccination persist: A KFF poll in September found that seven in 10 Democrats but just a quarter of Republicans planned to get the updated Covid shot.”

    https://archive.is/xoOGE

    Covid vaccines are poison ☠️

    1. WTOP radio is playing heavy rotation adverts for various vaccines, mostly Brought To You By Pfizer. Btw, sinus congestion finally appears to be gone. Probably a couple back-to-back viruses that I had to clear. Pseudoephedrine FTW!

  15. Russia Today — More Ukrainians willing to trade land for peace (12/15/2023):

    “The share of Ukrainians willing to make territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for a peace deal has almost doubled since early summer, according to a new survey. However, a significant majority still believe that Ukraine can beat Russia on the battlefield with more Western weapons.

    The poll, carried out by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology and released on Thursday, found that 19% of respondents would favor such a deal, up from 10% in May”

    https://www.rt.com/russia/589146-ukraine-poll-peace-deal/

    Russia is winning.

  16. ” BIDEN impeachment Inquiry”
    Biden should also be impeached for the following.
    >Allowing Invasion of our border as Commander in Chief.
    > Making Unconstitional TREATIES by Executive Order with UN, NATO, WHO in a abuse of authority.
    >Giving our oil reserves to China.
    > False advertising that Covid vaccines were safe and effective, and mandating vaccines.
    > Ilegally in collusion with Government agencies to obstruct free speech by censorship.
    > TREASON by advocacy of ONE WORLD ORDER, and that US should lead in this global insurrection.
    >Blackmail or Extortion of Ukraine investigation into corruption in Hunter Biden Company in Ukraine obstruction of Justice, while Joe Biden was VP.
    >Unlawful taking of documents as senator and VP, with evidence of illegal use of them , and access by Hunter Biden.
    > Treason attack on US Citizens and a Political Party, labeling them Enemy of State.
    >Discrimation attack on White Americans , against the laws of the land.
    > Paying off School loans with public tax funds.
    > TAKING MONEY from foreign enemies and entire family profiting from activities.
    > Spying on a duly elected president in collusion with Obama, CiA, FBI. HILARY, ETC.
    >Using Justice Department to attack political enemies of Biden. Interference with elections.
    Just on and on.
    There is a lot more.

  17. Oh, I forgot, should be impeached pursuant 25 th amendment that he’s not mentally or physically fit to be President.
    Also should be impeached for a ongoing attempt to override the US Constitution for a
    COMMUNIST/Fascist dictorship in collusion with enemies of US.

    1. ‘Dumb Money’ Is Super Confident In Stock Market Right Now: Should We Be Concerned?
      by Neil Dennis, Benzinga Staff Writer
      December 15, 2023 1:30 PM | 2 min read

      Zinger Key Points

      – Investors who back the equity market rally at this point might be too late.

      – VIX is at four-year lows while S&P 500 is within 2% of all-time highs.

      The “Dumb Money Confidence” index rose to its third-highest reading in 25 years on Friday, just as the VIX volatility index, also known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” traded at its lowest levels since 2019.

      Coincidence or correlation?

      It’s a well-known maxim of Warren Buffett: “When everybody else gets greedy, get scared. And when everybody else gets scared, get greedy,” and illustrates perfectly what the two indexes are telling us: that the bandwagon effect has taken hold.

      The bandwagon effect, follow-the-crowd — whatever you want to call it — is a trading bias that indulges a group-think mentality. This would be fine if you follow a crowd getting in on the meat of an asset price rise.

      Following The Crowd Too Late

      But bandwagons don’t pick up the players until the tune is well established. And so it is with dumb money that follows the trend too late.
      …
      https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/23/12/36263213/dumb-money-is-super-confident-in-stock-market-right-now-should-we-be-concerned

    1. ‘The toxic experimental drug remdesivir, backed by the NIH,
      suddenly became “safe” and the “standard of care” for hospitalized
      COVID-19 patients. However, it had never demonstrated any
      reduction in mortality, and in November 2020, the World Health
      Organization (WHO) announced that remdesivir was ineffective
      for treating any phase of COVID-19. Yet the U.S. continued to
      use this toxic drug in its hospitals. Thousands of preventable
      American deaths occurred while millions of doses of HCQ sat idle
      in the Strategic National Stockpile’

      2. I can’t speak for anyone else but I got the full treatment of remdesivir on day 9 or so of my bad Covid case and I don’t feel any worse for the wear. I did get better after it though, not sure if I naturally got over it or if the remdesvir did it. But the thing that really helped me out at the end, and got me normal, was a 14 day course of antibiotics doxycycline, they gave to me when I went back to the hospital on like 21 or 23 day of coughing up blood, after already spending 9 days in the hospital prior to that. Covid Protocols insisted that antibiotics did nothing and I got none during my stay. But I tell you, by the time my antibiotics course was over, I was back to 110% of where I was precovid and was outside ice skating and shoveling snow with zero problems. I never got the clot shot but Two years ago yesterday was the anniversary of getting discharged from the hospital. I’m a 40 something dude with a 25 bmi and no problems other than mildly high blood pressure. I don’t know. I figure I was the 1 in 10,000 case. Still don’t regret not getting the shot. As an aside, everyone I know that got the shot or boosters caught Covid 3 or 4 x. I’ve only caught it one time, and it was not good. My o2 levels were like 91% for two weeks straight. I’m only bringing this up because it’s in my mind two years later yesterday being the anniversary of my discharge.

        1. As a time line, i caught it the day before thanksgiving 2021. Got sick the Sunday after thanks giving. I was super sick and went to hospital on day 8 and the sent me home with an inhaler. Two days later I went back to hospital (drove myself again) and my O2 was 87% so they admitted me for 9 days. I got remdesivir on night of day 1 in hospital. Dr said they had to have a round table to decide to give it to me. 5 day treatment. I laid on my stomach for 9 nine days to keep my O2 above 92%. After remdesivir I started eating again and by day 9 I was ready to go home , it was 12/14/21 iirc. Some of the days are off little bit because it’s a blur. But I do remember asking the doctor the first night if I should have been vaccinated He looked at me and shrugged. He shrugged his shoulders abs said that everyone in the Covid ward was vaccinated and they’re still sick. After I got out, I started coughing up blood again. A few days later I went back to the hospital that’s when I got the antibiotic. That brought me through the new year and I remember I was ice-skating and outside in some snow right after the new year. I still never got the shot. Don’t regret it. But who knows.

          1. “…said that everyone in the Covid ward was vaccinated and they’re still sick.”

            Our family was fully vax’d before my two athletic kids drove themselves to California to visit family for the holidays and caught a COVID variant. Both developed serious symptoms a couple of days upon arriving home, both losing two weeks of work. Unfortunately my daughter experienced months of lingering exhaustion leading to an eventual job loss. Both are doing well these days.

  20. ‘listed his four-bedroom Forest Park home last October, looking to downsize. He accepted an offer on the home within a couple of weeks, but the buyer’s financing fell through. Financing problems derailed three more offers before he finally sold the home this month. Coleman said in addition to reducing price of the home — he eventually dropped it from over $1.15 million to $999,000 — he briefly took the home off the market to make some improvements’

    4 lenders turned it down, but we gotta knife catcher!

    ‘Most buyers, he said, didn’t want to purchase a home that wasn’t fully updated. ‘I would have thought we were better off selling a blank slate,’ he said, noting that he hesitated to replace carpet or lighting fixtures in case the buyer wanted something different. ‘But nobody wanted to take anything on’

    I’ve seen this before John. The buyer is going to rip out yer newly purchased carpet. They just wanted to make you pay for it.

  21. ‘New construction is boosting the housing inventory as homebuilders brought 38.7% more new homes to market than in 2022. This was offset by a 23.5% decline in previously owned homes offered for sale’

    2022 was the last hurrah of the minor respiratory illness. Some of this yuuge increase in new shacks could be a lag on that. It’s more clear that builders are undercutting resale. Happens every time.

  22. ‘If (ultra-luxe sellers) are getting offers, it is likely that they have reduced their list price. Additionally, many sellers are taking substantially less than the asking price’

    That’s the spirit Joyce, keep up the good work!

  23. ‘When interest rates are at or below inflation, the money is essentially free. Lacing steep interest rate increases with the remote work era was the office building doom whoop’

    I’ll have a weekend topic on this tomorrow, but for this quote, here’s the thing: Interest rates are still below inflation. After the ‘steep interest rate increases.’

    1. And if you can keep rolling over debt at 1%, you don’t even have to pay back principle. That’s why building owners could high-end storefronts to remain empty for years on end without needing to drop the rent to attract a new tenant. It’s time for some creative destruction.

  24. Is this New York City in the 1980s? The Venezuelans are mobbing the corner of Alameda and Santa Fe with the squeegees:

    https://ibb.co/vmZY79G

    Do not touch the van. Do not approach the van. You’ve been warned…

  25. ‘The national average home price fell 1.6% from October to $656,625, according to figures released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). That’s still 2% above year-ago prices, but now more than 20% below the peak reached in February 2022’

    This is the whole country.

  26. ‘Homeowners have to offer discounts of up to 20 per cent to attract buyers…‘The local home market may become bearish if no further support policies are introduced to shore up investor confidence’

    Well that gets us back to how much of an a$$pounding is bearish You.

  27. ‘As I stand in the shopping mall, basically half of it is still a building site. In front of me is a kids’ train. There’s no one on it, and the driver is just doing endless loops’

    That’s not dystopian or anything.

    ‘Normally around here, you’re on your own,’ said Nazmi Hamafiah, who used to live in Forest City. After six months, he decided to cut his losses and get out. He didn’t even mind losing his rental deposit. ‘It’s multibillion dollar project, it’s supposed to be good,’ he said. ‘It’s supposed to meet expectations but … frustrating.’ Many millions in China have invested their life savings in projects just like this — and they’ll be wanting some reassurance sooner rather than later’

    Nazmi is probably stuffing expensive food in his pie hole every day, maybe even more than once a day. He clearly doesn’t have what it takes to be a winnah!

  28. Does it seem like risk assets are in a bubblelicious parabolic price move towards a market top?

    “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”

    — Charles Prince III, former chairman and chief executive officer of Citigroup

    1. ‘Magnificent 7’ mania is like the dot-com bubble, setting up stocks to slump and recession to strike by summer, veteran wealth advisor says
      Theron Mohamed
      Dec 13, 2023, 6:36 AM PST

      – The “Magnificent Seven” stocks remind one wealth advisor of the dot-com bubble in tech names.

      – Ted Oakley expects the stock market to slump and a recession to hit within six months.

      – Warren Buffett’s record cash pile and recent stock sales should worry investors, he says.

      A longtime wealth advisor has compared the Big Tech boom to the dot-com bubble — and predicted the stock market will slump and a recession will strike within the next six months.

      “Everybody’s piled into these same equities so that’s where the damage will probably come,” Ted Oakley, the managing partner and founder of Oxbow Advisors, said during a recent episode of the “Thoughtful Money” podcast. “I think the worst part will be ahead of us here over this next one or two quarters.”

      “The worst part of any sell-off is always the last part — that’s where they take everybody apart, they take the generals, and they take the sergeants,” he added, meaning even the market’s highest fliers won’t be spared from the pain ahead.

      Oakley, a 40-year veteran of the wealth-advisory industry, noted that virtually all of the S&P 500’s return this year has stemmed from the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, which include Tesla and Nvidia. He likened the current buzz about artificial intelligence, a key driver of their ascent this year, to the breathless hype around the internet in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/magnificent-seven-dot-com-bubble-crash-stocks-recession-consumer-economy-2023-12

    2. The head of BlackRock’s research arm says those who think we’re in economic recovery suffer from amnesia. He shares when rate cuts may happen, and the bond durations investors should opt for.
      Laila Maidan Dec 14, 2023, 8:55 AM PST
      BlackRock’s Jean Boivin

      Investors are pacing for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as early as next March.

      But they’re going to be disappointed when they realize that may not happen until the second half of 2024, said Jean Boivin, the head of BlackRock Investment Institute, at a Manhattan Institute event on December 7.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/rate-cuts-outlook-forecast-best-bonds-to-buy-blackrock-2023-12

  29. Rep. Clay Higgins Drops Jan. 6 Bombshell About FBI Sources Infiltrating Crowd – ‘Senior Officials Deeply Involved!’

    by Kelen McBreen
    December 15th 2023, 2:36 pm

    Speaking with Logan, Rep. Higgins went into further detail about a prior claim he made during a congressional hearing when he claimed to have proof of “nefarious” buses “filled with FBI informants dressed as Trump supporters” deployed into our capitol on January 6.

    “Your day is coming, Mr. Wray,” Higgins told FBI Director Christopher Wray last month.

    During his conversation with Logan, Higgins said he has loads of evidence showing the buses were filled with feds and that he is only showing her “the tip of the iceberg.”

    An eyewitness told Higgins he “collected some digital evidence of those busses and then estimated with him and other eyewitnesses between 40 and 50 guys that they described as Trump supporters, they all disembarked from the bus, and they gathered in front of the two busses, and they had some kind of discussion, a briefing, like the way a military leader would address his troops. And then they together went to the escalators and up in the Union Station and were gone.”

    “We intend to get all of that video evidence from Union Station, from the escalators, from the parking lot,” Higgins added.

    The GOP politician noted he’s got enough evidence to track down the sales of the specific buses used in the operation and even revealed to Logan that everybody on the vehicles were likely FBI assets, saying they could be actual FBI agents and that his “objective conclusion” is that “senior officials at the FBI were deeply involved there.”

    “I’m telling you, we’re in uncharted waters as it relates to the weaponization of our government against the American people,” Higgins told the journalist. “I am not frightened of these people. I’ve spent my life serving others, and I love my country. This thing is not going to just slip away. They’re not going to take us without a fight.”

    He continued, “I’m going to fight legally and peacefully and within the parameters of the constitution that I’ve sworn to serve. But they’re going down. These men and their high perch and their position of power and authority that are walking upon our entire history, our deepest core principles. They’re not going to get away with it.”

    Watch the full Logan-Higgins interview on either 𝕏 or Rumble below:

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/rep-clay-higgins-drops-jan-6-bombshell-about-fbi-sources-infiltrating-crowd-senior-officials-deeply-involved/

      1. MOHS surgeon but just one 4mm deep slice over the scar from the previous 3mm deep excision on 9/28.

        1. Pretty sure I was the youngest person during my 3 visits. And having just had surgery under general anesthesia, the MOHS procedure looked more like a conga line of patients rotating in and out of a procedure room with lots of waiting in the waiting room between slices.

  31. Does it worry you that California’s housing market is collapsing, or do you see this development as the inexorable aftermath of the insane 50% price spike during the Pandemic?

    Regardless of your sentiments, this is one for the record books!

    1. U.S.
      California
      Housing Market
      Real estate
      U.S. Economy
      California’s Housing Market Is Collapsing
      Dec 15, 2023 at 11:09 AM EST
      By Giulia Carbonaro
      US News Reporter

      Home prices have dropped dramatically across parts of California which had until recently been the most overvalued in the entire country, according to recent data.

      The Golden State was affected by the same price correction that hit the United States housing market between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, though prices have slightly rebounded since then, as inventory remains low.

      According to the California Association of Realtors (CAR), the median sale price of an existing single-family home in the state was $840,360 in October—down from $843,360 in September but up 5.3 percent compared to a year before.

      In the same month, existing home sales rose by a modest 0.3 percent, though the number was 11.9 percent lower than in October 2022 as sales remained hindered by high mortgage rates.

      Amidst this situation, some urban areas have seen more dramatic price changes than others. In San Francisco, which for decades has boasted the highest home values in the Bay Area, the price of downtown condos has dropped to levels unseen for the past 10 years, according to a chart updated in November and released by Compass, a website that provides real estate market data and insights.

      While in downtown San Francisco a new condo might cost an average of just above the $800,000 mark, in the rest of the city, which has been less affected by the impact of remote work and the recent exodus of major retailers, the price of new condos remain considerably higher at over $1,200,000.

      Vacation rental investor Rohin Dahr shared on X, formerly Twitter, the Zillow listing for a condo in downtown San Francisco which sold for $415,000 in 2015 and for $250,000—significantly less—on December 5.

      The price fell so low that the agent had to specify that’s actually just the market price and not part of the Below Market Rate affordable housing initiative pic.twitter.com/uALI4PIluV

      San Francisco is not the only place in the Golden State experiencing drops in property values. Cities like Dublin, Truckee, Palo Alto, Pleasanton, Alameda, Oakland, San Mateo, Berkeley, Albany, San Anselmo, Willits, Mountain View, Fremont, Santa Cruz, Livermore, San Carlos and Castro Valley have all experienced drops in home prices as well, according to a recent report by GOBankingRates.

      While in San Francisco, prices were down by 13.04 percent year-on-year, in Palo Alto and Fremont, for example, they had dropped by 12.80 and 10.60 percent, respectively. In Santa Cruz, prices dropped by 10.44 year-on-year, according to the website.

      A Zillow listing shared by Dahr on X for a home in Lake Tahoe, at the border between California and Nevada, shows that the property experienced a $3.5 million price reduction after remaining 477 days on the market without being sold.
      …
      https://www.newsweek.com/california-housing-market-collapsing-1852824

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