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There Was A Speculative Price Bubble, One Of The Biggest In The Last 50 years, Prices Have Been Falling Ever Since, The Bubble Has Burst

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Palm Beach County buyers looking for an existing single-family home had more to choose from last month than at any time in at least two years, with active listings and months’ supply doubling and tripling compared to what was available during the same period in 2021. A report by the Broward, Palm Beaches and St. Lucie Realtors group found there were nearly 4,600 active listings on the market last month, which is more than double the amount in November 2021 and 6% higher than last year. Yet, despite the cornucopia of houses for sale, the number of closed deals dropped to its lowest total since January with just 914 sales completed.”

“‘I have people waiting to make offers right now because they’re not sure what’s going to happen next,’ said Realtor Don Moore. ‘It’s not a buyer’s market right now, and some people think it will decline next year, so they are not as eager.'”

“Oklahoma City home sales slumped more in November, and the supply crept up again with so many sitting unsold − slowing both month to month, which can be explained by the usual decline toward the end of the year, and year over year, showing the persistence of malaise in the market. Some buyers have given up on 2023, said Keri Gray, broker and owner of KG Realty. ‘I have a lot of clients looking to move in 2024, but as for 2023, it has been my slowest year on record,’ she said. ‘Buyers are waiting for the bottom to fall out because they are wanting ‘deals.’ I do not think these ‘deals’ are going to be what we saw in the mid 2000s.'”

“Elevated interest rates are behind market slowdowns across both commercial and residential real estate sectors in Spokane and Kootenai counties this year, according to some real estate industry specialists. Dave Black, CEO of Spokane-based commercial brokerage company NAI Black, says, ‘Business is about half of what it was in 2021 and even 2022 … which were actually record years for us.’ The median single-family home price in Kootenai County in November was $525,000, down 4.5% from the median price in November 2022, according to the Coeur d’Alene Regional Realtors’ Market Snapshot report. Jared McFarland, board president of the Coeur d’Alene Regional Realtors, says contraction provides relief to homebuyers. ‘We needed things to slow down a little bit because it was an exaggerated market with such a low inventory and prices rising so fast that we needed to step back,’ he says. The market slowdown has allowed inventory levels to rise, resulting in improved buying conditions with fewer bidding wars and more negotiating leverage for purchasers, he says.”

“Kanye West is ditching his Malibu masterpiece for $53 million — a few years after splurging $57.25 million on the coastal crib. Insiders tell The Post that a concoction of factors, including the artist’s shaky finances, played a key role in his decision to unload this unique oceanfront abode, even at a loss. ‘Let’s just say the cash flow isn’t really flowing at the moment,” a source revealed, peeling back the layers of West’s motivation. “The renovations turned out to be a bigger hassle than expected.'”

“Phoenix saw some of the largest home price increases in the U.S. during the pandemic-era housing boom. Phoenix’s market also fell sharper and faster than almost any other major city in the U.S., Zillow senior economist Nicole Bachaud tells us. The drastic change has left potential buyers confused and unsure when or if they should enter the market, she says. ‘I don’t think there’s a Realtor in town that’s going to miss 2023,’ Phoenix Realtors president Butch Leiber tells us. The Valley tracked just over 64,000 sales so far this year, the lowest annual tally since 2008, when the housing market crashed. In 2021, we saw more than 100,000 sales.”

“Things are not OK in Realtorland. The US housing market is still reeling from pandemic-era shocks, home sales are stuck in a rut, and mortgage rates, while inching downward, are still near two-decade highs. It’s a bad time to be a buyer, and maybe a worse time to be a seller. Despite all this upheaval, there’s another story brewing in which the stakes for everyone in real estate. The biggest threat facing the industry is a mounting wave of class-action lawsuits that accuse the National Association of Realtors, along with some of the country’s biggest real-estate brokerages, of conspiring to rip off consumers by keeping the commissions paid to agents unfairly high. These cases are expected to reach major milestones in the next year, and the ramifications could be staggering.”

“‘There are going to be real-estate agents who are not able to articulate, let alone demonstrate, their value. Those folks will probably be out of the business very quickly,’ John Kwoka, an economist and antitrust researcher at Northeastern University, told me.”

“Around 60 per cent of Canadian mortgages are up for renewal over the next three years, according to RBC, putting millions of homeowners at risk of shocking increases when their fixed-rate mortgages renew. ‘Is four per cent a lot of relief for somebody that’s holding at 2.5 per cent fixed rate? You know, it’s better than six, but it’s not going to provide a ton of relief for those borrowers,’ Vancouver-based mortgage broker Andy Hill said in an interview with CTV News. ‘There’s certainly going to be a renewal shock, regardless to how far rates go.'”

“And even though the bond markets are anticipating interest rates will go down, that doesn’t guarantee a rate cut. The Bank of Canada said it still needs months of data to ensure inflation is trending down. Meanwhile, a Tuesday report from Scotiabank economist Derek Holt said Canada’s inflation data ‘leans more towards a hike than a cut.'”

“Rental inflation has since slowed to less than 10pc, but Londoners alone spent £32bn on rent this year. And as a result, landlords have become the bogeymen of modern times. The same is the case for Derek Tyson, a 53-year-old landlord in Fife where the Scottish Government has capped rent rises in existing tenancies to 3pc. He said: ‘My mortgage is £400. The rent is £600. But the tax I pay on that £600 pushes me into a loss.’ Mr Tyson says he will have to evict at least two of his tenants – one of which is on benefits – because the properties have become loss-making investment. ‘I can’t wake up every day and keep losing money.'”

“Residential property prices in Germany continued their fall, dropping 10.2% in the third quarter from a year earlier, a further grim sign for the nation’s real-estate sector, data on Friday showed. It was the fourth consecutive quarter of declines and the biggest since Germany’s statistics office began keeping records in the year 2000. The decline for single and two-family homes in major cities was especially pronounced in the third quarter, dropping 12.7%, while apartment prices fell 9.1%. The drop comes amid the biggest property crisis in decades in Germany, Europe’s largest economy. ‘Until 2022, there was a speculative price bubble in Germany, one of the biggest in the last 50 years,’ said Konstantin Kholodilin from the macroeconomics department of the German Institute for Economic Research. ‘Prices have been falling ever since. The bubble has burst.'”

“The director of a failed building company has not been contactable for months, all while the liquidator claims she pocketed $861,000 of the business’s funds prior to its collapse. News.com.au can reveal that in May, Sydney-based Workspace One Pty Ltd went into liquidation with liabilities of $845,000. Jackson*, a trade creditor owed $120,000, was furious when he learnt the extent of the company’s financial affairs. Losing ‘$120,000 hurts like hell,’ he told news.com.au. ‘I was looking at retiring in the next few years, now I’ve got to work a lot harder’ for more years to come.”

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This Post Has 83 Comments

  1. ‘A report by the Broward, Palm Beaches and St. Lucie Realtors group found there were nearly 4,600 active listings on the market last month, which is more than double the amount in November 2021’

    For the week of Christmas, is that a lot?

  2. ‘it has been my slowest year on record,’ she said. ‘Buyers are waiting for the bottom to fall out because they are wanting ‘deals’

    That’s the spirit Keri!

    1. “I do not think these ‘deals’ are going to be what we saw in the mid 2000s.’”

      Whistling while strolling past the graveyard will not prevent the inevitable.

      1. A bursting property bubble is one contagion I would welcome, no matter where it originates from.

  5. “‘There are going to be real-estate agents who are not able to articulate, let alone demonstrate, their value.

    Being a smooth and persuasive liar does not constitute value.

  6. Losing ‘$120,000 hurts like hell,’ he told news.com.au. ‘I was looking at retiring in the next few years, now I’ve got to work a lot harder’ for more years to come.”

    When housing losses we must eat;
    Let us stamp our little feet!

  8. “A report by the Broward, Palm Beaches and St. Lucie Realtors group found there were nearly 4,600 active listings on the market last month, which is more than double the amount in November 2021 and 6% higher than last year. Yet, despite the cornucopia of houses for sale, the number of closed deals dropped to its lowest total since January with just 914 sales completed.”

    An inventory pileup with no buyers willing to step up and catch falling knives seems like a prelude to a crash. The sharks are circling, but there is not enough blood in the water to garner interest. Once the inventory pile is large enough to panic investors into dumping their residential RE HODLings, the ensuing carnage should be epic.

      1. I do wonder what effect this onslaught of humanity piling into the country will have on a property market. Will the extra demand work to prop up prices? Perhaps the bubble would burst more dramatically if there weren’t so many extra bodies to somehow be housed?

        1. It’s probably paradoxically kept rents lower than they’d otherwise be with all that funny money out there. The market can only bear what people can afford to pay. The migrants are mostly broke so keeps rents down at the lower end.

          2. These broke migrants quadruple up to divide the rent small enuf to afford, while the neighborhood deteriorates exponentially, ie cars parked in front yard and throughout the neighborhood

  9. “It was the fourth consecutive quarter of declines and the biggest since Germany’s statistics office began keeping records in the year 2000.”…

    IIRC, Germany was not as swept up in Housing Bubble 1.0 as the US and many other developed country econmies, so didn’t crash as much in the 2007-2012 period as, say, the US or UK.

    But a protracted period of Quantitative Easing and NIRP, followed by the market decompression effect of rates reverting across the zero bound to positive, has put them on course for the largest real estate price collapse they have ever witnessed.

    1. “The drop comes amid the biggest property crisis in decades in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.”

      It’s great to read the news of how both Germany and China are in the process of recovering from their property bubble crises. Hopefully the US will soon follow suit.

  10. Are you worried that all the US investors currently piling into stocks could portend seven lean years ahead?

    “Be fearful everyone else is greedy.”

    — Warren Buffett

    1. Need to Know
      American households are invested in the stock market like never before. That could mean seven lean years, says Wall Street veteran.
      Last Updated: Dec. 22, 2023 at 9:42 a.m. ET
      First Published: Dec. 22, 2023 at 6:57 a.m. ET
      By Barbara Kollmeyer

      Stock futures are paring some losses after a preholiday data dump didn’t real any inflation surprises, notably via the Fed’s favorite gauge, as the last full week of trading for 2023 closes out.

      That’s as questions are being raised about whether the midweek plunge in stocks was random jitters, or the start of something more sinister.

      Our call of the day comes from a Wall Street veteran who theorizes that based on the high number of stock holdings for American households, investors could be facing “seven lean years” of returns ahead.

      The U.S. household equity share of total financial assets was 36.3% in the third quarter, Joseph Lavorgna, former Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist, who now does the same job at SMBC Nikko Securities, told clients in a recent note.

      That percentage is down from an record of 40.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, but still well above any other period prior to the current business cycle, he says.

      Before the pandemic’s onset, the previous record share was set during the internet boom in the first quarter of 2000, with the peak before that 36.9% during the decade’s “conglomerate fad,” said Lavorgna, who also served as chief economist of the Council of Economic Advisers under former President Donald Trump.

      So why does elevated equity exposure matter? “Historically, when households own a high percentage of equities in their investment portfolio, future stock returns tend to meaningfully lag historical averages,” he said.

      “Future returns are based on the stock market’s performance over the next seven years because this is broadly consistent with the average length of the post-WWII business cycle,” he explains.

      Lavorgna and his team calculated the average long-term household equity share of financial assets at 25.6%, represented by dashed line in the above chart. High or low household exposure is determined by one-standard deviation bands around that long-term average, shown as solid lines.

      “From 1952 to 2016, the long-term total annualized return of the S&P 500 including reinvested dividends is 11.4%. However, when the household
      share of stock holdings is one standard deviation above its long-term average, stocks return just 4.1% annualized over the proceeding seven years. The opposite is true when the household share of stocks is below its long-term average. Stocks return a large 16.0% annualized over the next seven years,” he said.
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-households-are-invested-in-the-stock-market-like-never-before-that-could-mean-seven-lean-years-says-wall-street-veteran-6308ed0f

      1. “Historically, when households own a high percentage of equities in their investment portfolio, future stock returns tend to meaningfully lag historical averages”

        A polite way of saying that once the suckers are all in, it’s time to yank the rug again.

        By contrast I remember several years ago another analyst was concern trolling that stocks were doing great and the little guy wasn’t in the market at all. Little wonder, as said little guy hadn’t yet forgotten about having Patrick Bateman rip his face off in 2008.

    2. Live Coverage
      from 1 hr 28 min ago

      Dow Jones Today: Stocks Eke Out Eighth Consecutive Week of Gains
      By Colin Laidley
      Updated December 22, 2023

      Stocks just barely rose Friday to cap off their eighth straight winning week after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed prices fell for the first time since 2020 in November.

      The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both gained about 0.2% Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped less than 0.1%. For the week, the Nasdaq added 1.2%, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, and the Dow ticked up 0.2%.

      The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% in the twelve months through November, the index’s lowest reading since February 2021. On a month-over-month basis, the index fell, suggesting prices declined for the first time since 2020. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the index rose 3.2%, less than the 3.3% increase economists were predicting. With Friday’s report, the pace of core inflation has slowed to just 1.9% in the last six months, putting inflation squarely on track to hit the Fed’s 2% goal next year.

      Shares of Dow component Nike (NKE) fell more than 10% after it slashed its full-year outlook, projecting sales growth of just 1% this year, down from a prior estimate of mid-single-digit growth.
      …
      https://www.investopedia.com/dow-jones-today-12222023-8419598

      1. I think maybe inflation has stabilized a bit but only if you look for discounts and deals. You can get a new amd processor, motherboard and ram for $400. Certain vehicles are offering % off msrp and decent financing. Groceries Stores have a lot of 2’fer BOGO deals on chips and other branded products. They’re giving away tvs this Xmas. But again you have to shop the deals pretty hard to find them. Gas is still expensive and my utility bills are high too. Medical is also expensive and speciality niche items of all genres are too. When did cheapie castor wheels at Menards become $10 each? 3 games of bowling plus shoes is $32, so $138 for a family of 4 to family bowl.

    1. China’s banking system is in free fall and the country’s real estate losses could hit $4 trillion, veteran investor says
      Jennifer Sor
      Dec 12, 2023, 12:09 PM PST
      Read in app
      china property
      REUTERS/Aly Song

      – China’s banking sector is in free-fall, according to market veteran Kyle Bass.

      – The Hayman Capital CIO estimated China could see at least $4 trillion in real estate losses.

      – An unchecked boom in real estate development in China has led to a deep crisis, experts say.
      …
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/china-economy-banking-system-property-crisis-real-estate-debt-losses-2023-12

    2. China debt crunch
      Chinese developer Aoyuan files for U.S. bankruptcy protection

      Troubled company follows in footsteps of Evergrande and Sunac
      An office building owned by China Aoyuan Group is under construction in Hong Kong.
      NORIYUKI DOI and KENJI KAWASE, Nikkei staff writers.
      December 22, 2023 01:36 JST

      SHANGHAI/HONG KONG — Property developer China Aoyuan Group has filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court, looking to ward off litigation as the company restructures its debts.

      Aoyuan joins a growing list of Chinese real estate developers that have applied for bankruptcy protection in the U.S., including China Evergrande Group and Sunac China Holdings.

      The filing, submitted Wednesday local time, begins a case under Chapter 15 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, which applies to foreign-domiciled companies. During the proceedings, creditors will be unable to sue the debtor or seize U.S.-based assets.

      Aoyuan is looking to implement a restructuring proposal for its offshore debt under these protections. On Nov. 29, Aoyuan said that creditors approved of its restructuring scheme. The program is expected to officially take effect pending a Hong Kong court ruling set for Jan. 8.

      Aoyuan is one of several heavily indebted private Chinese developers based in the southern province of Guangdong, along with Evergrande, Kaisa Group Holdings and Fantasia Holdings Group.

      Aoyuan said in December 2021 that it was unable to meet creditor demands to repay $651.2 million in principal, leading S&P Global Ratings to downgrade the midsize developer to “selective default (SD).” S&P then stopped covering the company, warning of its “exceptionally weak liquidity and lack of funding access.”

      All three major global agencies had withdrawn their ratings by May 2022, when Fitch Ratings pulled out, citing insufficient information.

      “Aoyuan has chosen to stop participating in the rating process,” Fitch said. It had previously rated the developer as being in “restricted default,” or RD.
      …
      https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-debt-crunch/Chinese-developer-Aoyuan-files-for-U.S.-bankruptcy-protection

  13. No One Wants Used EVs, Making New Ones a Tougher Sell Too

    In the $1.2 trillion secondhand market, prices for battery-powered cars are falling faster than for their combustion-engine cousins. Buyers are shunning them due to a lack of subsidies, a desire to wait for better technology and continued shortfalls in charging infrastructures. A fierce price war sparked by Tesla Inc. and competitive Chinese models are further depressing values of new and used cars alike, threatening earnings at rivals like Volkswagen AG and Stellantis NV.

    Because most new vehicles in Europe are sold via leases, automakers and dealers who finance these transactions are trying to recover losses from plummeting valuations by raising borrowing costs. That’s hitting demand in some European markets that were in the vanguard of the shift away from fossil fuel-powered propulsion. Some of the biggest buyers of new cars, including rental firms, are cutting back on EV adoption because they’re losing money on resales, with Sixt SE dropping Tesla models from its fleet.

    “When a car loses 1% of its worth, I make 1% less profit,” said Christian Dahlheim, who heads VW’s financial services arm. The issues with secondhand EVs, he said, have the potential to destroy billions of euros in earnings for the broader industry.
    The problems are expected to intensify next year, when many of the 1.2 million EVs sold in Europe in 2021 will come off their three-year leasing contracts and enter the secondhand market. How companies tackle this problem will be key for their bottom lines, consumer confidence and ultimately decarbonization — including the European Union’s plan to phase out sales of new fuel-burning cars by 2035.

    “There isn’t used-car demand for EVs,” said Matt Harrison, Toyota Motor Corp.’s chief operating officer in Europe. “That’s really hurting the cost-of-ownership story.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-one-wants-used-evs-050011036.html

      1. The EV revolution seems to be hitting some speed bumps. I don’t see those aggressive deadlines for cutting off ICE sales actually happening.

    2. Because most new vehicles in Europe are sold via leases

      Interesting. In the not too distant past I was told by my European relatives that they always paid cash for their new cars and that financing a car was taboo. Even my lowly retired Bobby BIL paid cash for his SUV a few years ago.

      1. I confirm that. I never in my life, ever, ever, financed a car. What for? New or used, if you don’t have the money why buy? Especially in Europe. And yes, I bought brand new cars too, including in US. I consider myself solid middle class. Not rich in any way, but always stayed debt free and bought things I could afford. Sometimes it amounts to quite a lot, and quite nice. I feel guilty all the time when I buy expensive thing that I can afford but absolutely don’t need, e.g. expensive vacation in exotic resorts.

        I think financial mentality in US is incredible. I never seen more people in debt than there. More poor people craving for expensive cars, or vacations, or things they don’t need but want. It’s what makes an economy great, I guess. The basic desires and wants, lack of self check and control. It’s all good:

        Merry Christmas to you all!

        1. “I feel guilty all the time when I buy expensive thing that I can afford but absolutely don’t need, e.g. expensive vacation in exotic resorts.”

          I never have this problem. Because I can’t afford those things in the first place. So count your blessings this holiday season.

          1. Well, there are better things in life than money.
            One of my best vacations was last year. Travelled western USA and Canada for 3.5 weeks. Crashed in the trunk of my car(very small SUV) every single night: air mattress, small water AC unit, a vent, a tablet and a phone for entertainment. Stayed at nice hotels or lodges, but in the parking lot :). Took a hot shower at RV parks, or campgrounds every night, small fee or asked the host for permission. Or not. Or used a creek to wash or a hot spring.
            Visited about 15 national parks, traveled 6500 miles(scary), spent about 1000$ on gas, and a few hundred on small expenses like cheap eats at McDonalds (buy one, get one for free). I had a small stove and bought some groceries that I carried in a small cooler. I got ice for the cooler in a plastic REI bottle whenever I bought gas or at McDonalds (that alone saved me 50-100$–ice can be quite expensive these days).
            In the morning, I always went to the reception at the nice hotel I used (the parking lot), and I asked about prices. Always a few hundred dollars. As I was thinking, “great, I just saved 200-300$”, I politely asked, “may I used your restroom really quick?”. Always positive. Besides that, restrooms everywhere else, at gas stations, parks, visitor centers, campgrounds, etc. I love USA! 🙂 🙂
            All you need is a good family, some hobbies, and your imagination to stay busy, entertained, and quite happy.

  14. 5th most homeless in the country, what an embarassment.

    Colorado Sun — Who is homeless in Denver? Let’s look at the numbers (12/22/2023):

    “The latest official count of homelessness in the seven-county Denver metro area found that 9,065 people were sleeping either on the streets or in homeless shelters on a given night. The count happens on a designated night in January by swarms of volunteers and nonprofit workers who spread across the city and suburbs. The results of the 2023 count were alarming — but not all that shocking because homelessness has become so much more visible since the coronavirus pandemic. The homeless population grew 32% in a single year.

    But a federal report released last week included Denver’s new population of homeless migrants, bumping up the metro area’s homeless population on that night in January to 10,054.

    That ranked Denver as the city with the fifth-largest homeless population in the nation — behind only New York, Los Angeles, Seattle and San Diego.”

    https://coloradosun.com/2023/12/22/denver-homeless-by-the-numbers/

    1. That article also mentions that about half of the 30K invaders who arrived in Dumver this year were put back on buses and sent elsewhere. So much for being a sanctuary city.

        1. The people of Carbondale need to be honest and tell the invaders that there is nothing for them in Carbondale, that they will be permanently homeless if they stay, and maybe offer to pay for bus fare to send them somewhere else.

        2. “Carbondale is generally pretty Democratic and liberal, so we’re getting a lot of: You’re doing the right thing,” said Laird, who is also a town trustee. “Unfortunately, we don’t have the capacity for the right thing anymore.”

          At least there’s no more mean tweets now, right?

        3. “With two other migrants, they were sharing a Kia Sorento, which Flores purchased for $1,200.”

          And here I thought they were arriving with nothing more than the shirts on their backs.

          I do have to give credit to the Latins, who always seem eager to work for a living, not hoping to become welfare cases. But it seems clear there are simply too many people coming in all at once.

          2. But it seems clear there are simply too many people coming in all at once.

            I simply do not see how these millions, maybe even 10M+, that arrived this year can possibly be absorbed, no matter how much they want to work.

  15. ‘I can’t wake up every day and keep losing money.’” Don’t sell yourself short, sure you can Mr. Tyson.

    1. This reminds of the article yesterday about the migrants in NYC complaining about being feed pancakes for breakfast at their shelters, and then going out to eat.

      These people are supposed to be unemployed AND broke. So how can they afford to go out to eat?

      The 9News website’s “fact checkers”claim that the government is not giving the invaders free money. If that is true, then how can they afford to turn their noses up at free breakfasts and instead go out to eat?

      I am so sick of the lies.

      1. By the same token, I’m surprised people in the Carbondale contingent can afford to buy cars…

      1. “blank page”

        IBB website flagged it for some reason?

        It would not surprise me at all if there was a specific effort to block any photos taken in or near Home Depot parking lots by geo-location tags embedded in the photo file.

        The only “illegal” content in the photo posted is their status in this country.

        1. I didn’t see a security guard at the Lakewood location, but the Depot at Alameda and Santa Fe has their own designated guard in the parking lot for all the invaders. And that HD has the most invaders of any location I’ve been to around Dumver.

          1. the Depot at Alameda and Santa Fe has their own designated guard in the parking lot

            One of the WalMarts in Greeley has had round the clock parking lot security guards for years. Coming to your neighborhood soon.

          2. The squeegee boys are in Lakewood now too.

            Joe Biden’s America: turning the suburbs into the third world.

  17. Clutch those pearls harder.

    Washington Post (via Archive) — How the anti-vaccine movement is gaining power in statehouses (12/22/2023):

    “A wave of lawmakers who oppose vaccine requirements are winning elections for state legislatures amid a national drop in childhood vaccination rates and a resurfacing of preventable deadly diseases.

    The victories come as part of a political backlash to pandemic restrictions and the proliferation of misinformation about the safety of vaccines introduced to fight the coronavirus.

    Republican legislators decried what they saw as government overreach and vowed to dismantle public health mandates about masking and vaccines. That rhetoric seeped into the broader vaccine debate, he said, providing ammunition to legislators such as Beryl Amedee, a recently reelected state representative who for years had sponsored anti-vaccine legislation with little success.

    As she enters her third term, Amedee said she believes her bills will gain traction in the upcoming legislative session with the support of “liberty-loving” colleagues who have latched onto the idea that the government should not mandate anything. She said she is not “anti-vaccine,” but rather, “pro everyone having the opportunity to make their own health decisions.”

    “Covid was the catalyst that ignited the firestorm,” Amedee said. “The moderates on the ballot were not the ones that got the votes.”

    https://archive.is/0UF2o

  18. Can someone who thinks they understand it please explain to me why over one in four US homes is purchased as an investment, rather than as a place to live in?

    Real estate is currently priced to sell at levels that won’t pencil out as rental properties without massive future price inflation, which I heard the Fed is trying to prevent. Given that prices have yet to adjust downwards to equilibrate with higher-for-longer interest rates, it seems like the path forward is to price declines. If you want an idea of where US real estate prices are headed, check out what is playing out currently in China or Germany, harbingers of what is in store for the US. It seems like US investors may be in an unenviable position until prices realign with fundamentals.

    2. With so many too-clever-by-half California real estate investors piling in to pick up the slack while mom-and-pop end users stand by and stand back from the home purchase market, it’s hard to imagine a future where all of these new age Warren Buffets don’t become fabulously wealthy.

      1. August 17, 2023
        US Home Investor Share Remained High in Early Summer 2023

        The sizable U.S. home investor share seen over the past two years held steady going into the summer. In March 2023, investors accounted for 27% of all single-family home purchases; by June, that number was almost unchanged at 26%.
        …
        Home investor shares were concentrated in Western, Southern and lower Midwestern states in Q2. Figure 7 shows this trend, with California (34%), Washington, D.C. (33%), Georgia (32%), New Mexico (31%), Texas (31%), Nevada (30%), Utah (29%), Arizona (29%) and Kansas (29%) posting the highest investor shares. Washington, D.C’s significant gain is somewhat surprising, given investor share in nearby areas. In fact, the District of Columbia’s investor share was 10 percentage points higher than its neighboring states of Virginia (23%) and Maryland (22%).

        Though the data shows the usual summer dip in home investor activity, there are no indicators that it will regress to pre-pandemic levels of less than 20%. Elevated interest rates and slowing appreciation seem to have dissuaded large and mega-investors, while small investors have stepped in to fill the gap.
        …
        https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-investor-share-remained-high-early-summer-2023/

    3. Real Estate Investors Pull Back, Buying 45% Fewer Homes Than a Year Ago
      August 30, 2023 by Dana Anderson
      Updated on August 31st, 2023

      – The drop in investor purchases outpaced the 31% decline in overall home sales.

      – Investor market share is down to 16% after hitting an all-time high of 20% in the first quarter of 2022.

      – Investors are also making up a smaller share of the home-selling pie, with 8% of new listings owned by investors, down from a peak of 13% at the end of 2021.

      – Investors are gravitating to low-priced homes and single-family homes–though investor purchases of single-family homes declined year over year due to limited inventory.

      – Investor market share and investor purchases retreated most in Phoenix, Las Vegas and other Sun Belt metros, as those places boomed during the pandemic and have a lot of room to fall.

      Investor home purchases fell 45% from a year earlier in the second quarter, outpacing the 31% drop in overall home sales. That’s the biggest decline since 2008 with the exception of the quarter before, when they dropped 48%. The decline comes as this year’s relatively cool housing and rental markets makes investing in homes less attractive than it was during the pandemic-driven homebuying frenzy of 2021 and early 2022.
      …
      https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-drop-Q2-2023/

      1. “That’s the biggest decline since 2008 with the exception of the quarter before, when they dropped 48%.”

        Can someone kindly remind me what happened next to housing prices after that steep 2008 vertical drop in investment purchases? I can’t quite recall…

  19. Another Language Police™ article.

    The Guardian (via Archive) — How Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric is taking over the Republican party (12/22/2023):

    “Activists note how the Republican party has veered right with Trump. Maria Teresa Kumar, president and chief executive of Voto Latino, a grassroots political organisation, said via email: “Trump may say the quiet parts loud, but he’s far from alone. There were members of the Republican party not long ago who understood the need for bringing the country together. [President George W] Bush, a Texan, sought immigration reform.

    “Today, we see elected Republicans use rhetoric and policies for political expediency at the cost of unification. There is no doubt that we are living in a multicultural democracy – the first in history. Instead of embracing this superpower that will serve us well on the world stage, they choose division that hurts millions of fellow citizens.”

    https://archive.ph/o8Nmi

    They’re not citizens, Maria.

  20. ‘I don’t think there’s a Realtor in town that’s going to miss 2023’

    It would really be something if you were back here in a year telling us 2024 was worse than 2023 Butch.

  21. ‘My mortgage is £400. The rent is £600. But the tax I pay on that £600 pushes me into a loss.’ Mr Tyson says he will have to evict at least two of his tenants – one of which is on benefits – because the properties have become loss-making investment. ‘I can’t wake up every day and keep losing money’

    Here’s how I see it as a USAan Derek: all you guys with a queen on yer peso seem to actually embrace being negative cash flow on rentals. Yer tax regime is built around it. And yer ignoring how much yer shacks and shanties are falling apart. So don’t give us this jive about losing money, you have done that year in and out.

    1. Seems like Californian investors buying rental properties at bubble prices face similar issues of not being able to collect enough rent to cover the mortgage and other HODLing costs…

  25. Housing Market
    Home Sales Dive in the South
    Dec 22, 2023 at 4:35 PM EST
    By Omar Mohammed
    Reporter, Economy & Finance

    Sales of new single-family homes fell in November to their lowest level in a year, largely because of a drop of more than 20 percent in the South, injecting a negative note into the housing market.

    Mortgage rates have declined recently to their lowest level in six months and analysts expected that buyers would get off the sidelines and enter the market.

    But data on Friday showed that overall sales of new homes dropped by more than 12 percent to 590,000 units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
    …
    https://www.newsweek.com/home-sales-dive-south-1855114

  26. Dec. 21, 2023 at 5:59 PM EST
    Weaker GDP Data Weighs on Treasury Yields
    By Eric Wallerstein, Reporter

    U.S. economic growth wasn’t as strong in the third quarter as expected, prompting a bond rally that is pushing yields lower.

    Third-quarter GDP growth printed at 4.9%, according to a third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The previous estimate was for 5.2% growth.

    Weaker growth and inflation means the Fed could cut interest rates sooner. Yields on 2- and 10-year Treasurys fell early Thursday.
    …
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-12-21-2023/card/weaker-gdp-data-weighs-on-treasury-yields-YDs1eGWomh9FpEwKuRpH

    1. Weaker growth and inflation means the Fed could cut interest rates sooner.

      This is sickly humorous. The inflation (credit expansion style) has, let’s just say, doubled the price of everything. This makes some people rich and the rest of us poor. Sensing some headwinds on tortured price increase statistics, the bankers declare victory for the common man and hopefully will pump the inflation machine harder, good guys that they are.

      Yesterday can never be allowed to be the baseline if you want some things, only if you already own them. Those debtor fools in the middle are already chaff.

  27. J6 Prisoner Attorney Sent To Mental Hospital by Biden Regime, Reveals Oath Keepers’ Stewart Rhodes

    by Adan Salazar
    December 22nd 2023, 1:03 pm

    A lawyer for J6 prisoners has reportedly been shipped off to a mental institution courtesy of the Biden administration, according to Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes.

    In a recent phone call from prison to The Gateway Pundit‘s Jim Hoft, Rhodes revealed his attorney Kellye SoRelle, who testified before the Jan. 6 House Select Committee, had been deemed mentally unfit to stand trial and was subsequently sent to a mental facility.

    Following her representation of Rhodes, SoRelle faced severe legal repercussions, including charges of felony obstruction of justice and allegations of document tampering during a grand jury inquiry. She was also accused of entering the Capitol grounds on Jan 6.

    In June 2023, a federal judge deemed her mentally unfit to face trial claiming she suffered “from a mental disease or defect rendering her unable to understand the proceedings against her or to assist properly in her defense,” according to the Washington Post.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/j6-prisoner-attorney-sent-to-mental-hospital-by-biden-regime-reveals-oath-keepers-stewart-rhodes/

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