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Dare One Wish For Housing Price Cuts?

A holiday topic starting with News Corp Australia. “The Block stars Leah and Ash are not going to get a house sale for Christmas, and an update to the home’s listing will come as quite an kick in the teeth. When Lean and Ash’s house failed to sell, the pair have now been forced to drop the price, which has now reduced from $3.2m to $3.125m in a bid to offload it to a buyer in the New Year. ‘No, it has not sold yet,’ Leah confirmed to the channel last week.”

Daily Mail Australia. “A construction company ran by the son-in-law of a prominent developer has collapsed. W3D Constructions Pty Ltd, which operates out of Surfers Paradise and is owned by Ross Wolbers, entered liquidation on December 7. W3D Constructions owes $1.278million to almost 50 creditors including $275,000 owed to NAB, according to a report by liquidator. Mr Wolbers’ wife Louise is the daughter of property developing magnate Norm Rix who is one of Queensland’s richest people. Subcontracted tradies were told to get there tools and leave work sites as projects abruptly ground to a halt. ‘We didn’t deserve that, especially at Christmas time,’ one told the Courier Mail.”

CTV News in Canada. “Damage is estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars and two people are displaced after a ‘suspicious’ fire at a downtown residence on Friday night. According to the Windsor Police Service (WPS), at approximately 7:30 p.m. on Friday officers responded to an active house fire in the 800-block of Brant Street. In an update from Windsor fire posted to social media, Friday’s blaze was ‘determined to be an incendiary fire with multiple areas of fire origin.’ This is the second blaze in the 800-block of Brant Street within the last four days. Anyone with information is asked to call the WPS Arson Unit.”

The Staten Island Advance in New York. “It’s been one year since Pete Davidson placed his expansive St. George condo on the market, listing the 1,592-square-foot high-rise-style dwelling for $1.3 million. But did the pricey two-bedroom unit ever sell? Not according to real estate records. Guess even the ‘King of Staten Island’ is not immune to tough market conditions. Davidson purchased the condo in 2021 for $1.2 million. After marketing the condo for about four months, the Realtor dropped the price to $1.1 million. But after 176 days on the market, it was officially taken down from the Multiple Listing Service.”

CNBC on Texas. “For the 12 months ending in November, home sale prices in the metro Austin area dropped by 6.2%, with homes selling for a median of $424,990. The median sales price has fallen for five consecutive months, too. Median rent prices in Austin have decreased by 5.4% for the year ending in November 2023, the second-largest decline among the 50 largest cities, per another Redfin study. Austin is emblematic of the low-interest house-buying frenzy of the pandemic, and how quickly the real estate market can switch from undervalued to overpriced.”

“In January 2019, the median price home in Austin was $295,000, slightly less than the U.S. median at the time, which was $298,800, according to Redfin data. At its peak in April 2022, median home sale prices in the Austin metro area reached $555,000 — an 88% increase from 2019. Prices have since cooled, and are now at a median of $424,990 — still well above the national median of $408,732. For homebuyers, Austin is no longer the bargain that it once was.”

The Ahwatukee Foothills News in Arizona. “Phoenix REALTORS said the outgoing year was the pits for the Valley housing market – and data for two of Ahwatukee’s three ZIP codes bears that out. ‘The residential real estate market was the worst in 2023 since the Great Recession in 2009,’ it said in a release. ‘It’s a good year to put behind …and prepare for a better 2024.’ ‘Motivated home buyers and home builders are offering greater concessions this year than typically seen,’ said Butch Lieber, outgoing Phoenix REALTORS president. ‘Usually, there’s an average of $4,500 in concessions on a home, but this year, we’re seeing concessions worth $10,000 and more, including interest buydowns.'”

The Commercial Observer. “Sorry to be a Grinch and ruin the holiday good times, but there was some bad news we had to report last week. Most notably, a new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that 14 percent of the $2.7 trillion commercial real estate loan market currently have outstanding balances higher than property values and are at risk of immediate default. That includes 44 percent of office loans.”

“And it’s clear that some owners are already feeling the pain. Savanna handed the keys to its 12-story Harlem office building back to its lender to avoid foreclosure. Signa Holding put its 50 percent stake in the Chrysler Building up for sale as the bankrupt Austrian company tries to wind down its vast commercial enterprise. The impact on the office market has been driving down valuations all across the country, especially in California’s Orange County. Several properties have sold at a loss in the area recently, including 3 Hutton Centre Drive, which Tireco bought for $28.9 million, a drop from the $50.5 million that Harbert Corporation and Cypress Office Properties paid in 2016.”

The Real Deal on California. “Z&L Properties, with nearly 200 delinquencies for unpaid homeowner dues on unsold condos in Downtown San Jose, has moved closer to default. The Foster City-based developer, owned by disgraced Chinese developer Zhang Li, faces foreclosure for failing to pay homeowner association dues for 190 unsold units at the twin towers at 188 West St. James Street, the San Jose Mercury News reported. The twin towers contain 320 condominiums each, with the delinquencies in the western highrise. A Z&L Properties affiliate that owns the unsold condominiums in the west tower owes unpaid assessments of more than $1.3 million, according to county records.The 188 West St. James Owners Association filed the delinquent liens, warning it might force a ‘private sale’ of condos to satisfy the unpaid dues and other expenses.”

Edhat in California. “An executive at a San Luis Obispo-based real estate development company who was previously charged with paying a county supervisor nearly $100,000 in bribes has been named in a superseding indictment that alleges a scheme to defraud investors in a Texas real estate project, the Justice Department announced this week. Ryan Wright, 37, a.k.a. ‘Ryan Petetit,’ of Grover Beach, was named in a superseding indictment returned by a federal grand jury Wednesday afternoon. The new indictment adds 14 counts of wire fraud, three counts of attempted bank fraud and one count of access device fraud.”

“The fraud scheme alleged in the superseding indictment relates to a proposal to develop luxury homes in Dripping Springs, Texas. Over the course of two years – from October 2021 through October 2023, when Wright knew he was under investigation in the alleged corruption scheme – Wright allegedly solicited funds for the real estate development and diverted investors’ money to pay for criminal defense attorneys retained in connection with the bribery investigation, as well as for personal expenses, including a luxury condominium in Beverly Hills, reports the Department of Justice (DOJ). The indictment alleges that Wright continued to solicit investor funds even after the real estate deal collapsed in August 2022. Wright is currently in custody after being ordered detained after his arrest in late October.”

The San Gabriel Valley Tribune. “A developer that accepted millions of dollars from a massive program to house the homeless is under investigation by the state for failing to live up to its contractual obligations and stiffing subcontractors who rehabbed facilities in the Inland Empire, Thousand Oaks and other California communities. Pablo Espinoza, a spokesman for the California Department of Housing and Community Development, confirmed in an email that the agency is investigating Shangri-La Industries of Los Angeles and has asked the Attorney General’s Office for assistance.”

“Gov. Gavin Newsom launched Project Homekey in June 2020 to protect the homeless from the threat of the coronavirus pandemic. To date, the state has allocated more than $3 billion to cities and counties to purchase motels, hotels, vacant apartment buildings and other properties to provide permanent housing to the homeless. Among the subcontractors left holding the bag on the Redlands project was Safeway Electric, which did electrical work at the former Good Nite Inn during renovations. ‘I think that Andy Meyers should probably be in jail,’ said Melissa Miller, senior account specialist at Safeway Electric in Riverside. ‘I think this is awful that it’s been allowed to get this far.'”

“Subcontractor Adolfo Gomringer said Shangri-La still owes him $93,000 for the work his company did at the former All Star Lodge. Gomringer, 34, of Los Angeles said he worked on the Step Up in San Bernardino project, off and on, from March 2021 through December 2022, doing demolition and installing metal framing, drywall and flooring. Gomringer said he’s been trying for the past year to get Shangri-La to pay up. ‘I have $100,000 in credit card debt because of this,’ he said, noting that he was forced to use credit cards to cover expenses such as materials and employee pay.”

The Daily Breeze. “California’s economy could use some holiday cheer. Let me offer an economic gift list for California. Below are 12 business needs for the coming year — complete with a sprinkling of trusty spreadsheet input on why each one comes with challenges ahead. More arrivals: 1.2% of California residents in 2022 were relocations from other states — the worst attraction rate in the nation. California’s population is at 2016 levels. Until somebody creates a ‘move here’ mentality, the state’s body count will wither. Deeper discounts: 3.2% increase in California consumer prices in the year ended in October, according to the state Department of Finance. That’s far below the 8.3% inflation of June 2022, but it’s not the 2.7% average of 2015-2019. California living was unaffordable enough until the latest inflation outburst made budget-balancing even tricker. Dare one wish for housing price cuts?”

“Shopping sprees: 1.6% fewer retail sales in California, minus inflation, for the year ended in August — a drop we have seen in 15 of the past 16 months. That’s what you get when high inflation and small raises collide and shrink consumer buying power. It’s a key reason optimism is low. More workers: 18.5 million Californians say thev’re got a job — the same staffing level as five years ago. It’s not clear why growth has halted. Is it a wave of retirements? Or workers exiting the state? Or have some Californians see work as a poor financial option when considering the cost of commuting, childcare, clothing, etc.?”

The Los Coast Outpost in California. “The origin of Christmas is really a long story in itself. I don’t mean the event it is supposed to commemorate, I mean the journey from the event to the holiday in December as we know it. But in the Humboldt area early on, none of that was known and the day ! no such significance to anyone. It was only with the coming of the white settlers — with their traditions — that Christmas was noted on the local calendar. The first year that naming occurred was in 1849, or so we are told by L.K. Wood.”

“Wood was part of the Josiah Gregg party, a group of more determined than prudent explorers who sought a quicker way to supply the miners inland. They ended on a plateau above the marshy area north of Humboldt Bay, close to what is today the location of the Arcata Plaza. Tired, hungry and with dark coming, some set up camp while others went to hunt food. Elk were sighted and shots were fired, but the men came back to camp empty-handed for their Christmas Eve dinner. On Christmas Day, with the morning light, a dead elk was found in the brush. Wood said they roasted the head in the ashes for their Christmas feast. They were so hungry that the simple fare was enjoyed, Wood wrote.”

“The 1850 housing of early pioneer Frank S. Duff was in the burned out base of a redwood tree near what is now Ryan’s Slough. In an interview in a local newspaper, Duff remembered that Christmas dinner that year consisted of three wild geese killed with boat paddles in the slough, plus bread and coffee. He said he missed the vegetables, the sound of Christmas bells, letters from home, and entertainments of the past. It seems that Christmas as a season or a day is when memories and expectations come up against reality. Wood and Duff found the reality lacking when stacked up against the memories, but acceptable to the expectations they had.”

“Life then was not just a struggle to make a living —to provide food and shelter in an area isolated from supplies and amenities offered by cities. The settling of the West and the politics of the East caused struggles of another sort. The proximity in the newspaper of the information about a bill passed to allow the organization of local companies of men into military units to protect the frontier to the editorial decrying the lack of interest in the holidays may help to explain the editorial comment.”

“The December 24, 1859 Humboldt Times editorial said: We do not remember, at any time of our life, to have seen so little interest manifested at the approach of Christmas as at present. In fact, people, both old and young, don’t appear to regard tomorrow as commemorative of any great event. We don’t believe that one half the children in town know that tomorrow will be Christmas. We haven’t seen a bunch of firecrackers, a makebelieve cannon or wooden-sword exhibited in a show window yet. We haven’t heard Santa Claus mentioned by ‘little posterity,’ and unless his advent is announced soon we fear the shopkeepers will find dull sale for peanuts, candies and tin whistles. Why don’t you tell the little people Christmas is coming?”

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This Post Has 58 Comments

  1. From the last link:

    The story above was originally printed in the Winter 2001 issue of the Humboldt Historian, a journal of the Humboldt County Historical Society. It is reprinted here with permission. The Humboldt County Historical Society is a nonprofit organization devoted to archiving, preserving and sharing Humboldt County’s rich history.

    1. Why don’t you tell the little people Christmas is coming?”

      Then, as now, the media viewed the “little people” solely in terms of their ability to enrich advertisers. As tough times loom, maybe the focus should be on the reason for the season.

      Boney M. – Mary’s Boy Child – Oh My Lord

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6NewtnVN2Y

  2. ‘Guess even the ‘King of Staten Island’ is not immune to tough market conditions. Davidson purchased the condo in 2021 for $1.2 million. After marketing the condo for about four months, the Realtor dropped the price to $1.1 million. But after 176 days on the market, it was officially taken down from the Multiple Listing Service’

    Ho ho ho, an a$$ pounding new year for Pete.

    1. ‘…taken down from the Multiple Listing Service’

      I’m seeing that on a lot of listings these days. Seems like owners are having a hard time finding anyone willing to pay early 2022 prices.

      1. Greedhead sellers are clinging to the REIC-promoted hope of a Spring Miracle Revival. Lots of soap-bubble delusions are going to meet a cruel end in 2024.

      2. I know you’re in a sticky area, but the areas I watch in NV and Oregon are having a hard time moving 2021 prices. It’s about to very real for the over leveraged.

  3. ‘In January 2019, the median price home in Austin was $295,000, slightly less than the U.S. median at the time, which was $298,800, according to Redfin data. At its peak in April 2022, median home sale prices in the Austin metro area reached $555,000 — an 88% increase from 2019. Prices have since cooled, and are now at a median of $424,990 — still well above the national median of $408,732’

    Aside from the greater Austin sh$tholes, we can see the national median, tracked by one steaming pile, went from 299k in 2019 to 409k in 2023. Have we read any of the globalist scum media say that this is bad sh$t crazy? Has the national media ever gone up so much in such a short time? I doubt it.

  4. ‘faces foreclosure for failing to pay homeowner association dues for 190 unsold units at the twin towers at 188 West St. James Street, the San Jose Mercury News reported. The twin towers contain 320 condominiums each, with the delinquencies in the western highrise. A Z&L Properties affiliate that owns the unsold condominiums in the west tower owes unpaid assessments of more than $1.3 million, according to county records.The 188 West St. James Owners Association filed the delinquent liens, warning it might force a ‘private sale’ of condos to satisfy the unpaid dues and other expenses’

    So the HOA is going to force sell and fook it’s own members? Now that’s some red hotness!

  5. ‘The origin of Christmas is really a long story in itself. I don’t mean the event it is supposed to commemorate, I mean the journey from the event to the holiday in December as we know it. But in the Humboldt area early on, none of that was known and the day ! no such significance to anyone. It was only with the coming of the white settlers — with their traditions — that Christmas was noted on the local calendar’

    Wa happened to all those Indians California?

  6. When Lean and Ash’s house failed to sell, the pair have now been forced to drop the price, which has now reduced from $3.2m to $3.125m in a bid to offload it to a buyer in the New Year. ‘No, it has not sold yet,’ Leah confirmed to the channel last week.”

    Ho ho ho! Get to sawin’ and slashin’ like you mean it, greedheads!

  8. The median sales price has fallen for five consecutive months, too.

    Gosh, if the median price has dropped five months in a row, what’s to stop it from falling further? I fear such headlines are not conducive to Always Be Closing.

  9. It’s Christmas, so shouldn’t we be thinking happy thoughts about future price gains instead of lamenting our losses?

    Take bitcoin, for example: Nobody knows exactly what makes it so valuable, but just think how rich you could get if you bought ten imaginary coins today and the price rose to $100,000 dollars per imaginary coin, which reputable sources on the internet say could happen any moment.

    There is no need to thank me for the hot investing tip.

    Merry Christmas!

    1. Yahoo
      Motley Fool
      Could Bitcoin reach $100,000 in 2024?
      RJ Fulton, The Motley Fool
      Sat, December 23, 2023 at 3:00 AM PST·5 min read
      Bitcoin cryptocurrency golden coins

      It’s hard to believe that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was in the depths of a brutal crypto winter just a year ago, falling as low as $16,735. Fast-forward to today, and Bitcoin is up more than 160% in 2023, hitting a yearly high of just over $43,000. By all accounts, the crypto winter has thawed.

      This level of resurgence isn’t uncommon for Bitcoin, especially after bear markets. However, it does raise the question: How much more momentum could Bitcoin have? Could it ride this wave and reach the coveted six-figure mark of $100,000 in 2024, or would that be too big of a jump too fast?

      For Bitcoin to reach $100,000, it would need to increase by another 130%. Considering Bitcoin has notched average yearly returns of 167% over the course of its existence, it is undoubtedly within the realm of possibility. But just how likely is it?
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/could-bitcoin-reach-100-000-110000440.html

      1. “Bitcoin cryptocurrency golden coins”

        Fake views

        “But just how likely is it?”

        That depends on how many greater fools are willing to buy purely speculative assets at an entry point of $43,000 per imaginary coin, when you can get 5% risk free on Treasury notes.

        “Considering Bitcoin has notched average yearly returns of 167% over the course of its existence,”

        At a constant rate of increase!?
        If so, the Emperor’s New Coins have done impressively well.

        On the other hand, a slowing rate of increase to what appears to be a permanently high plateau could presage another wave of collapse.

      2. Considering Bitcoin has notched average yearly returns of 167% over the course of its existence, it is undoubtedly within the realm of possibility.

        Bitcoin and all the other scam digital gambling tokens were only possible in a world awash with central bank funny money. It’s going to be comedy gold when all the crypto bros realize at roughly the same time that the supply of Greater Fools has dried up, and their digital tulip bulbs are reverting to their intrinsic value of zero. The stampede for the exits is going to be monumental as fear overtakes greed – and since so many of these baggies levered up to the hilt to chase their crypto mania dreams, the panic-selling is going to hit other asset classes as well, including shacks. Got popcorn?

      3. Is Bitcoin a currency waiting for so-called “full adoption,” or is it an asset? I’m going to harp on this question until somebody somewhere gives a real answer.

        2. currency…or is it an asset?

          It is neither. Currency is issued by a government. As discussed earlier, unless it is a really nifty patent for something, an asset is actually real.

          1. I agree that bitcoin is neither currency nor asset. However, the bros think that bitcoin is both a currency and as asset.

            What the bros mean to do is to trade their Bitcoin ETF on the IDEA that Bitcoin will someday be the only world currency out there.

            As an parallel, imagine that somebody tipped off you and 9 of your friends that Germany was going to give up its Marks for the Euro. Eventually, all the assets in Germany — housing, cars, airports, banks, jobs — were going to eventually be denominated in Euros, and you had the opportunity to buy a few Euros in advance. Of course you and your friends would fight each other to buy Euros at any price.

            That’s what going on with Bitcoin right now. It’s a race to own Bitcoin now, and then sell it all to a greater fool just before it becomes clear that nobody will be giving up their currency for Bitcoin and it all crashes. It’s a dangerous game. But I guess the CFTC and SEC will allow the fools to play it.

          2. Ironically, I recently found my old Germany travel purse at the back of a drawer. It has about 50 DMarks (coin) in it.

            It was difficult to exchange coins for USD at international airports. Probably worthless now.

            I always expected the future to be more rational than the present. Usually not the case.

        3. ok. I’ll answer it for you. Bitcoin will be adopted as soon as you’ll see pigs flying in flocks. Does anyone believe the the FED and government will give up their toys?
          And I know government issued currency is funny money, but does anyone in the crypto world want to argue with a loaded .45?
          First of, for the bitcoin to be adopted, they’ll need more carriers, more battleships, more nuclear missiles, more hornets, more apaches, more of the raptors, more of the f-14 tomcats, more nuclear subs, more of pretty much everything.
          let me know when they start acquiring them. maybe I’ll buy some crypto myself.

        2. I’ll take a hard pass on buying real estate. Housing Bubble 2.0 is just getting started, and the wipeout of fictitious “value” created by the tsunami of Fed funny money since 2008 is going to get downright Biblical.

        3. Buying stocks, real estate, crypto, and other risk assets to hedge against inflation made sense in the Quantitative Easing / ZIRP / Modern Monetary Theory regime that the Fed ended in early 2022.

          Now that risk asset prices are bid up sky high in anticipation of further Fed stimulus without end, and the Fed has removed the punch bowl by instituting higher-for-longer rates, the strategy of buying and HODLing risk assets until prices go up may be less of a sure thing. But that won’t stop the risk asset cargo cult from continuing to invest assuming that further inflationary helicopter drops of cash are on the way.

          1. Financial Times
            Opinion Markets Insight
            The great speculative era on markets is hard to kill
            A collapse in risk appetite may require a really dramatic geopolitical event or mistake by central banks
            Philip Coggan
            An alien in ‘Alien’ film. Similar to destroying Hollywood monsters, extreme outcomes may be needed to finish off the risk-taking bonanza on financial markets
            Philip Coggan yesterday
            The writer is a financial journalist and author of ‘More: The 10,000-Year Rise of the World Economy’

            In most Hollywood horror movies, the monster is incredibly hard to kill. Not until the final moments of the film will it be dispatched and, even then, enough doubt will be created to leave room for a sequel.

            So it has been with the great speculative era on the financial markets. A pandemic, a Russo-Ukraine war and even substantially higher interest rates have not finished off the risk-taking bonanza.

            Take the technology sector as a starter. Much of its value lies in the future profits companies are expected to earn because of their superior growth potential. When bond yields rise as they have this year, investors should in theory use a higher rate to discount those future profits taking into account the time stocks have to be held to receive them. That means valuations should fall, not rise.

            But the price/earnings ratio of the US technology sector is well above its three-year average and the sector’s shares have jumped more than 50 per cent so far this year.

            Second, take the overall market valuation, as measured by the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, or Cape. This averages profits over 10 years to allow for the economic cycle. In March 2022, as the US Federal Reserve started to push up interest rates, the Cape was 34; on the latest figures, the ratio has dropped only to 31, still well above the historical average. And markets have continued to rally in December.

            Then there is bitcoin. The late, lamented Charlie Munger, the long-term colleague of Warren Buffett, said that investing in cryptocurrencies was “absolutely crazy, stupid gambling”. As if to prove his point, the past 18 months have seen the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX, and Binance — one of its biggest competitors — suffering a $4.3bn fine for money laundering and the forced departure of its founder. There could not be more alarm bells sounding if the entire New York City fire department was racing, with sirens blazing, past investors’ doors. But the bitcoin price has more than doubled this year.
            …

  10. The indictment alleges that Wright continued to solicit investor funds even after the real estate deal collapsed in August 2022.

    Real estate investors getting fleeced is glorious. Houses are for living in, but the Fed has turned them into speculative asset bubbles with its ultra-easy money policies. Die, speculator scum!

    1. Has anyone connected the dots yet between the Fed’s housing price inflation program and the rampant homelessmess across America?

  11. Does news of falling home prices in economic superpowers Germany and China make you feel lucky to live in America, where home ownership is a one way road to riches?

    1. German property prices plummet as housing bubble bursts
      22 December 2023 • 7:40pm
      Chancellor Olaf Scholz is contending with a German economy that is the worst performer in the G7 and the bursting of a house price bubble
      – German house prices suffer record 10pc fall
      7:08am
      – Britain at risk of recession as growth revised down

      House prices in Germany dropped by a record 10.2pc in the third quarter in a further sign of the struggles faced by Europe’s largest economy since the pandemic.

      It was the fourth consecutive quarter of declines compared to the same time a year earlier, and the biggest since Germany’s statistics office began keeping records in the year 2000.

      The drop comes amid the biggest property crisis in decades in Europe’s largest economy.

      Konstantin Kholodilin of the German Institute for Economic Research said: “Until 2022, there was a speculative price bubble in Germany, one of the biggest in the last 50 years.

      “Prices have been falling ever since. The bubble has burst.”
      …
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/22/ftse-100-markets-latest-uk-recession-gdp-us-inflation/

      1. I’m pretty sure you can say the same about bubble USA. The largest in the last 100 years. stop commenting about Germany. I’m sure when the USA one pops, you’ll hear it from the Moon too.

        1. The Germans have slit their own throats with their ludicrous energy policies. A relative works for a German multinational, and according to him the firm is closing plants in Germany while keeping US based ones open, because of energy costs.

          Yeah, there are problems in the US right now, but Germany is a whisker away from economic collapse.

    2. Planet Money
      China’s real estate crisis, explained
      November 15, 20236:33 PM ET
      By Nick Fountain, Emily Feng, Jess Jiang, Emma Peaslee
      20-Minute Listen
      A worker prepares to weld a steel structure at a construction site in Beijing on May 8, 2021.
      Greg Baker/AFP

      China’s economic growth for the past few decades has been extraordinary. And much of that growth was fueled by real estate – it was like this miraculous economic engine for the country. But recently, that engine seems to have stopped working. And that has raised all kinds of questions not just for China but also for the global economy.

      Today on the show, we look at what’s happening inside China’s real estate market. And we try to answer the question: how did we get here?
      …

      2. Are ‘major price reductions’ typically a harbinger of a boom right around the corner?

        Because the last time prices started to CR8R, circa 2008, was the onset of a real estate price collapse that lasted for over five years, up until the point when the Fed stepped in with Quantitative Easing targeted on mortgage bonds. And that period of price decline followed the end of Greenspan’s final rate hike campaign.

          1. The Inverted Yield Curve: What It Means and How to Navigate It
            The Inverted Yield Curve: What It Means and How to Navigate It
            August 22, 2023

            The 3-Month Treasury Bill’s rate of 5.56% is currently the highest among US treasuries as of August 16, 2023. It was near 0% at the beginning of last year.

            The 3-month rate is currently higher than the 3-year by 88 basis points. At the end of May, the 1-Month Treasury Bill eclipsed 6% for the first time ever, and was the first treasury instrument to do so since 2002.
            …
            An inverted yield curve doesn’t necessarily mean a recession will happen at the snap of a finger. Nor have yield spreads historically stayed negative for very long. In fact, recessions don’t typically occur while the yield curve is inverted.

            Instead, what often happens is that the yield curve starts to gradually “un-invert” shortly before a recession. This reversal is usually triggered by either rate cuts or the imminent possibility of them, leading to a decrease in short-term bond yields.

            During the 2007-2009 recession, rate cuts or expected rate cuts triggered a surge in longer-term bond prices – illustrated by the iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) – leading to a decline in yields. Consequently, the yield curve normalized during this “bull steepening” event.
            …
            https://get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/inverted-yield-curve-what-it-means-and-how-to-navigate-it/

          2. Yahoo
            Motley Fool
            The Bond Market Just Sounded Its Most Severe Alarm in 50 Years. It Could Signal a Big Move in the Stock Market in 2024
            Trevor Jennewine, The Motley Fool
            Mon, December 25, 2023 at 3:55 AM PST·6 min read

            Recent signs of economic resilience have more and more investors giving credence to the “soft landing” narrative, a scenario in which the Federal Reserve successfully tames inflation without causing a recession. This growing conviction in this rather rare outcome helped propel the three major U.S. financial indexes higher in 2023.

            Year to date, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 13% and set new all-time highs, the broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) increased 23%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite soared 42%.

            Yet, analysts at JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, among other financial institutions, still see a recession as a distinct possibility in the next 12-18 months. They are concerned that the impact of higher interest rates has yet to fully make its way through the economy, and consumers have propped up the economy so far with outsized spending that is depleting savings and causing many to take on added debt. Some analysts argue that an economic downturn is possible (or even probable) as those situations evolve.

            A potential confirmation of the analysts’ fears can be seen in the bond market, which is sounding its most severe recession alarm in decades. Read on to learn more.

            The Treasury yield curve remains inverted
            …
            https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-market-just-sounded-most-115500585.html

          3. Financial Times
            Financial job losses
            Banks shed 60,000 jobs in one of worst years for cuts since financial crisis
            Trend set to continue over coming year amid subdued dealmaking and listing activity
            People walk past a Christmas tree outside the New York Stock Exchange
            At least half of the job cuts at global banks in 2023 were made by Wall Street lenders, whose investment banking businesses have struggled to cope with the speed of interest rate rises
            Owen Walker, European Banking Correspondent 2 hours ago

            Global banks eliminated more than 60,000 jobs in 2023, marking one of the heaviest years for cuts since the financial crisis and reversing much of their hiring as they emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic.

            Investment banks suffered a second consecutive year of plummeting fees as dealmaking and public listings dried up, leaving Wall Street trying to protect profit margins by reducing headcount.

            Elsewhere, the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS has already resulted in at least 13,000 fewer roles at the combined bank, with further big redundancy rounds expected in the year ahead.

            “There is no stability, no investment, no growth in most banks — and there are likely to be more job cuts,” said Lee Thacker, owner of financial services headhunting firm Silvermine Partners, adding: “There are some very nice gifts being sent to bosses at the moment.”
            …

          4. Financial Times
            US interest rates
            Fed rate pivot leaves stocks and bonds with ‘no room for error’
            Market rally of the past two months has left markets vulnerable to disappointment, say big-name fund managers
            Stocks and bonds were boosted when the Fed dropped its biggest hint yet that it could start unravelling its series of rate rises as soon as next spring
            Stocks and bonds were boosted when the Fed dropped its biggest hint yet that it could start unravelling its series of rate rises as soon as next spring
            Katie Martin in London yesterday

            A huge rally driven by the US Federal Reserve’s recent about-face on interest rates has left some big-name fund managers nervous that markets now look highly vulnerable to disappointing economic news.

            Stocks and bonds have ripped higher over the past two months, and received a major boost when the Fed dropped its biggest hint yet that it could start unravelling its series of rate rises as soon as next spring. The ascent leaves US equities close to their highest levels on record.

            In the short term, that fosters a celebratory mood. But it also means key assets are now priced for perfection — a benign world where central banks chop interest rates back down but without an economic recession forcing their hand. Big investors worry that these assumptions may not match up, and that it would take very little to force a rethink in a year studded with economic, political and geopolitical risks.

            “We have an ‘everything rally’ at the year’s end. The magnitude is breathtaking,” said Sonja Laud, chief investment officer at Legal & General Investment Management, the UK’s largest asset manager. “I’m worried about that. There’s no room for error.”

            US government bond prices are playing a central role in the late-2023 markets shift. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries have been gaining in price since October, when yields struck 5 per cent — the highest since before the financial crisis. At that point, investors were reflecting the message drummed in by the Fed over the summer that interest rates would stay high for the long haul to drag down persistent inflation.

            However, throughout autumn, with inflation falling and signs of cooling in the robust US labour market, the Fed’s message began to shift.

            First the central bank suggested that high yields were doing some of its heavy lifting — an acknowledgment that higher borrowing costs were starting to bite. Then officials started to talk about the possibility of cutting rates even with inflation still above target. Yields, which move inversely to prices, sank.

            But the breakthrough came at Fed chair Jay Powell’s regular press conference on December 13, when he started to sketch out the potential path towards rate cuts and presented forecasts from other rate-setting officials, pointing to several cuts over the coming year.

            Analysts and investors scrambled to catch up, pencilling in rate cuts earlier than they had previously predicted, and in much greater number. Subsequent efforts by Fed officials to cool market exuberance have had little impact.
            …

          5. HOMEPAGE
            Real Estate
            US banks could get slammed with another $160 billion in losses as commercial real estate faces its biggest crash since 2008
            Jennifer Sor
            Dec 21, 2023, 8:36 AM PST
            commercial real estate
            Kena Betancur/VIEWpress

            – Commercial real estate could suffer its biggest crash since the Great Financial Crisis.

            – That’s bad news for banks, which could see $160 billion in additional losses.

            – That’s according to a recent NBER working paper, which examined the impact of the Fed’s rate hikes.
            …
            https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-crash-bank-losses-interest-rates-2024-2023-12

          6. If there is an incoming tsunami wave of real estate collapse heading for US financial markets, it certainly is well hidden from view by recent risk asset price moves.

  15. ‘The indictment alleges that Wright continued to solicit investor funds even after the real estate deal collapsed in August 2022’

    You only live once Ryan.

  16. Censorship Originated To Stop Trump & Brexit From Happening Again! w/ Whitney Webb
    The Jimmy Dore Show

    2 hours ago

    The establishment response to the dual threats of Donald Trump and Brexit has been to crack down on dissent by ramping up censorship — in particular online censorship. Author and security state critic Whitney Webb talks to Jimmy about how a global cabal of elites is seeking to squelch any commentary that diverges from the approved narrative.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SWUyexAd4M

    31:18.

  17. We walked this job back in April but decided not to bid on it, would have to chisel through mountain bedrock across this guy’s driveway to pass inspection and that’s a bit beyond scope for a side job.

    He raises reindeer, as a hobby. Have you ever seen a baby reindeer before?

    https://ibb.co/fx6534h

    https://ibb.co/r6q73vP

  18. Strategies
    Wall St. Loves to Guess, but Nobody Knows What the Market Will Do in 2024
    So-called stock forecasts don’t deserve the name, our columnist says. Wall Street’s track record is horrendous.
    By Jeff Sommer
    Jeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.
    Dec. 23, 2023

    Wall Street strategists are issuing forecasts for the performance of the stock market in 2024.

    Pay them no mind.

    The predictions are usually wrong, and when they’re right it’s only by accident.

    Consider their prophecies for 2023. At the end of 2022, strategists predicted that the S&P 500 would end 2023 at 4,078, a gain of 6.2 percent from where it started, according to data from Bloomberg.

    At the moment, the market is above 4,700, a gain of more than 22 percent. These forecasts were so deeply off the mark undoubtedly because 2022 was a truly terrible year for stocks — and also one that most analysts totally failed to foresee. So the predictions for 2023 were uncharacteristically modest, reflecting the gloom that prevailed when they were being set.

    The median forecast on Dec. 19 called for the S&P 500 to close 2024 at 4,750, according to Bloomberg. The projections are still shifting — and will assuredly increase if the market keeps rising. When the market rises, the forecasts typically rise, too.

    These forecasts aren’t scientific, and I only bother to address them at all because they get a tremendous amount of coverage, and they inform the advice given to thousands, and perhaps millions, of people.

    If you find them entertaining or otherwise illuminating — wonderful. Enjoy them.

    But at all costs, don’t take them at face value because there is no evidence that anyone can predict the market’s movements reliably, and a great deal of evidence that buying and selling stock on the basis of your views about the market’s impending movements is a fool’s game.

    Better to invest with humility: Accept that no one knows where the market is going moment by moment, and focus on the long haul, anyway.

    The Big Picture

    Over many decades, the entire global stock market has trended upward, and as long as capitalism survives, and companies continue to profit, the stock market as a whole is likely to climb. But it certainly won’t do so all the time. If you’ve been in the market at all, you know that it rises and falls. These movements are, for the most part, unpredictable.

    Yet Wall Street strategists make predictions anyway, despite a track record that is extraordinary in its ineptitude.

    Back in 2020, using data compiled by Paul Hickey, a founder of Bespoke Investment Group, I found that since 2000 Wall Street frequently got the direction of the market wrong. At my request, Mr. Hickey has updated the data.

    The numbers show that from 2000 through 2023, the median Wall Street analyst forecast that the S&P 500 would rise 9 percent a year, on average. In reality, the annual increase averaged 6 percent.

    Even these figures understate the degree of failure.

    In 2018, for example, the market fell 6.9 percent, though the forecasters said it would rise 7.5 percent, a 14.4 percentage point difference. In 2002, the forecast called for an increase of 12.5 percent, but stocks fell 23.3 percent, a spread of almost 36 percentage points.

    And in 2022, the forecast called for an annual increase of 3.9 percent. But the stock market lost 19.4 percent. The forecasters were wrong by a margin of more than 23 percentage points.

    Taking gaps like these into account, the median Wall Street forecast from 2000 through 2023 missed its target by an average 13.8 percentage points annually — more than double the actual average annual performance of the stock market.
    …
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/business/wall-st-loves-to-guess-but-nobody-knows-what-the-market-will-do-in-2024.html

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