thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

There’s Just No Buyers

A report from the News Press. “When Hurricane Ian chewed through Southwest Florida more than a year ago its powerful winds and floodwaters wreaked havoc on thousands of properties. But in Island Park Village, a 55-and-over condo community in unincorporated south Lee County, it was the efforts to rebuild that ripped the neighborhood apart. More than a year later its homeowners are mired in financial trouble, lawsuits and infighting – and the vast majority of the homes are still uninhabitable. ‘Our Florida dream turned into a Florida nightmare,’ said Island Park Village Section 3 homeowner Mike Riley.”

“Residents say they feel taken advantage of, both by their contractors and the homeowners’ association that signed contracts that have left them in such a tangle: unable to live in their homes, too broke to fix them. ‘Welcome to HOAs; they’re the worst thing in Florida, sometimes,’ said Florida House Rep. Adam Botana, R-Bonita Springs, whose district includes the Island Park area. It pains new board president Ron Martin how many of his neighbors have dug into their retirement savings to restore their homes. On top of that, thanks to a new, much more expensive insurance policy, their homeowner’s association fees recently doubled to nearly $1,000 a month. Many are struggling to afford the increased dues. ‘Of the 85 homes in here, probably 40 of them would be up for sale if the liens were taken off,’ Martin said.”

The North Salem Post in New York. “The number of homes sold in northern Westchester County in the fourth quarter of last year dropped by 22% compared to the year prior, amid low demand and stubbornly high mortgage rates. Bedford, Byram Hills, Chappaqua and Katonah-Lewisboro all saw declines of eleven percent or higher at the end of 2023. In December 2023, the median sale price for a single family home in North Salem was $541,000. The 12-month median selling price for a single family home in North Salem last year was $701,000, not far off from the 10-year median sale price peak, in 2021, at $740,000.”

The Hollywood Reporter in California. “The saga surrounding Kanye ‘Ye’ West’s oceanfront Malibu home has taken another turn. Ron Zambrano, a partner at West Coast Employment Lawyers, filed a mechanics lien on the property Monday on behalf of his client, contractor Tony Saxon, who claims he’s owed more than $1 million for his work amid other allegations. ‘We just want to make sure he has enough money to pay the more than $1 million he still owes our client before he goes completely broke,’ Zambrano said in a statement. ‘So in this case, if someone wants to buy Kanye’s Malibu home, they’ll have to deal with us first.’ News broke in December that Ye had listed the four-bedroom beachfront house on Malibu Road for $53 million, a price tag that represents a loss since he bought the home in late 2021 for $57.3 million in an off-market deal.”

Summit Daily in Colorado. “While these homes can be highly desirable, such properties usually take longer to sell. The $12-million-dollar Snowy Ridge home sat on the market for 760 days and eventually sold for more than $2 million below its original listing price, which was $14,450,050. Currently, the most expensive home by listing is $19,000,000 million and has been on the market for more than 1,200 days, according to Dana Cottrell, a realtor for the Summit Resort Group. ‘Usually, the higher the price range, the fewer the buyers you have,’ Cottrell said, ‘so homes can sit on the market longer.’ For the first time in more than a decade, the average price for a single-family home dropped, though prices still remain historically high. ‘Despite it being something that is intimidating for a local buyer, it’s also a great sign that the market is kind of leveling out a bit too,’ said Dishon Lutz, president for the Summit Association of Realtors.”

From Market Watch. “‘The best markets right now are in the Midwest,’ according to Larry Connor, founder of The Connor Group, an Ohio-based private real-estate firm which owns about $4.5 billion worth of luxury apartment properties in 18 U.S. markets. Certain hot spots such as Austin, Texas, have been vulnerable to overbuilding, which has weighed on rents, whereas supply-demand dynamics in the Midwest have stayed more in balance, Connor said. To that end, the Connor Group in December purchased its fourth apartment property in the Denver area at almost a 40% discount, paying roughly $100 million for a building that was built only three years ago, Connor told MarketWatch.”

“‘It’s going to be painful for every property to go from a low interest rate to a high rate,’ said Paul Fiorilla, director of research at Yardi Matrix. ‘But I think the distress is going to be focused in the small subset of multifamily that is value-add properties refinanced between 2020 and early 2022 with short-term debt and the intention of flipping them in a couple of years.’ ‘If you look at values from the peak to current levels, they are generally 20% to 25% lower than what you could have sold a property for in 2021 or the first half of 2022,’ Connor said.”

The Times Colonist in Canada. “Like Airbnb owners across B.C., Debra Sheets is in a holding pattern. The Victoria resident talked to a realtor about selling her 250-square-foot unit in The Janion building that she bought in 2017 for $420,000. However, she was told she would be lucky to get $350,000, a loss she can’t afford as she nears retirement. With four months until the B.C. NDP’s ban on most short-term rentals that aren’t in the owners’ principal residence takes effect, some Airbnb owners are trying to make as much money as they can before their investment dries up or becomes a liability, while others are panic-selling.”

“Victoria realtor Ira Willey has been showing his clients micro-lofts in The Janion, several of which have hit the market since October when the short-term rental crackdown was announced. The problem is, none of them are selling. ‘This is just too small to live in,’ said Willey, standing simultaneously in the kitchen, living room, dining room and bedroom of the 300-square-foot unit that’s listed for $375,000. Willey said people who purchased a condo in an Airbnb-friendly building paid a premium of between 15 and 20 per cent for the investment opportunity. ‘Now that premium seems to have disappeared.'”

“Orion Rodgers, who owns one short-term rental in Victoria and manages 30 others, said he saw a lot of Airbnb owners listing their units for sale ‘to kind of get ahead of the market. But the market had already stalled before that.’ ‘So we were seeing throughout the holiday season people unlisted their properties because there weren’t any sales,’ said Rodgers. ‘There’s just no buyers.'”

From Building UK. “Modular housebuilder Modulous will formally enter administration today after a ‘devastating’ race to secure more funding took it to what chief executive Chris Bone described as the ‘end of the cash runway.’ Bone, who said the company was £4m in debt, blamed ‘the vagaries of the venture capital markets.’ He told Building the firm had £30m of pledged funding, but when one funder pulled out and the remainder prevaricated the business ‘couldn’t bridge the gap.’ Modulous is the latest modular business to fail, following Ilke Homes, House by Urban Splash and last year’s closure of Legal&General’s modular arm. Bone reveals that the Bristol project has been another pain point for the business due to delays with finding a site. ‘The project is now half built. I’m not sure what’s going to happen to it but the modules are all manufactured and waiting to be at site. We would love to see that completed because we’ve made a huge commitment to the people in Bristol,’ he said.”

ABC News in Australia. “In an outback town suffering a crippling housing crisis, dozens of abandoned properties lie unused. At least 117 properties across the mining town of Mount Isa in north-west Queensland have been abandoned and owe at least three years in overdue rates, according to data from the local council. Home to about 20,000 residents, Mount Isa is one of the richest mining regions in the world. The town faces an uncertain future with the planned closure of Glencore’s copper operations in 2025. The closure has put a halt to new housing developments like the Gliderport project — a proposed 99-home suburb. The presence of neglected houses was affecting the town’s property market, said real estate agent John Tully. ‘Having an abandoned house in your area means a buyer will use that as leverage to get the price down on a neighbouring property,’ he said. ‘It’s like a disease…it’s a big issue for our clients who are putting houses up for sale.'”

From Bloomberg. “In 1979, Deng Xiaoping drew a circle on the map around China’s southern coast and created Shenzhen, an experiment in capitalism, according to a popular ode to the former leader. Nearly four decades later, Xi Jinping unveiled his own ambition for an era-defining city, this time perched on the outskirts of Beijing. Xiongan was billed as a gleaming, high-tech metropolis that would serve as a release valve for the crowded Chinese capital — ‘a model city in the history of human development.’ The ruling Communist Party has since spent some 610 billion yuan ($85 billion) on the city, more than double the cost of the Three Gorges Dam. On former cornfields now stand a train station, office buildings, residential compounds, five-star hotels, schools and hospitals.”

“Just one thing is lacking: residents. When Bloomberg visited on a weekday this month, a highway into the city was almost empty. In the city center, few shops and restaurants were open on streets lined with brand-new government headquarters, office buildings, residential compounds and hotels. Xi trumpeted the city’s progress in his annual new year speech, saying it was ‘growing fast’ and helping to revitalize northeast China. Last year, he warned against resisting the project, calling it ‘totally correct.’ ‘People must move if needed to,’ he said during a May visit to the city with top leaders including Premier Li Qiang and chief of staff Cai Qi.”

“But people are ‘voting with their feet,’ said Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. ‘This resistance is based on real-world interest. If you cannot make their interests align with your interest then of course you can’t make it happen,’ Wu said. ‘Xi’s power still has limits after all.'”

Related Posts
This Post Has 79 Comments

    1. You will own nothing, you dare not complain, and you will be ecstatic when your name gets on the waiting list for a 250 ft/sq micro-loft. [See story above]. Don’t worry about finding bugs to eat, they come with the loft.

      1. “250 ft/sq micro-loft”

        That should come with a nozzle sticking out of the wall that dispenses 1,200 calories a day of bug paste per pod resident.

        1. “…nozzle sticking out of the wall…”

          Nozzle Optional at slight extra cost. Multi-flavor bug paste available as a un-cancelable lifetime monthly subscription contract. Please contact your REConplex professional for details.

      2. Where micro-loft is just a fancy phrase for “hotel room,” which is the same as a small studio. Now, I believe that a hotel room is a viable living option, especially for poorer singles, but not for $400K pesos! IMO such units should be reserved for low-cost rentals for singles or seniors anyway.

        1. In 1971 I was stranded in a little town in PA off Rt 80 near Bellefonte. My 60 Chevy needed a transmission. I spent the first night in a gas station waiting for dawn and the local mechanic to open shop. The old guy running the gas station let me play the pinball machine all night without putting a quarter in. In the morning he hooked me up with the mechanic.

          He also directed me to the old hotel where I got a room for $3/night. As I recall, it was 6 or 7 feet wide and 8 ft long. Room for a narrow bed and enough standup to get dressed with a small press closet. Shared bathroom at the end of the hall.

          It took three days for the mechanic to find a working transmission at the junk yard and I was good to go after three attempts. He charged me $100 as it was all I had left after filling the gas tank. I can’t explain the kindness of these strangers but I will never forget them.

      3. It might be here sooner than you think. I watched a citizen interview of some invaders in NYC yesterday and one showed his wristband with the number 9645 on it and explained he was 9645 in line for a spot on the floor to sleep. While the previous arrivals are still in hotel rooms with 3 meals a day the recent ones are waiting in line for something. One said no one will give him a job or food when he asks so they have to steal it because being thousands in line for each meal isn’t realistic. Another one showed his bus tickets to Georgia that were just given to him by a church. Most of them seem like they would probably be fine with a bug paste dispenser at this point.

        1. So where were they getting food and housing in the border states, before they were being bussed? Those small town didn’t have any spare hotels either.

        2. While the previous arrivals are still in hotel rooms with 3 meals a day the recent ones are waiting in line for something.

          Same in Dumver. It won’t matter if the mayor shaves 15% of all city department budgets, they will run out of money as the buses keep rolling in with nee arrivals who still think that everything will be handed to them on a silver platter.

          It will be interesting to learn what the NGO people will be telling them next? Perhaps to riot?

    2. ** “Just one thing is lacking: residents. When Bloomberg visited on a weekday this month, a highway into the city was almost empty.”

      ok, ez solution; just build a starbucks & dutch bros. across the street from each other. critical mass within a year.

      problem solved.

      (like the old joke about “no legal problems until 2nd lawyer came to town)

      once AGAIN, I gotta solve a problem. just make me grand poobah of the world already: perpetual peace, p***y, & prosperity.

      btw, I have stumbled on Netflixes “Loudermilk”. my new hero, after Al Bundy. I’d SWEAR we were related.

    1. Or we could just distill it down to its essence: FBs who bought into the Fed’s Housing Bubble 2.0 are schlonged, bigly.

  4. Mayor Mike Johnston asks for city agency spending cuts to fund Denver’s migrant response (1/9/2024):

    “At the end of December, Johnston told Denverite that scale of cuts would be untenable, and the city would instead have to scale back its efforts to shelter and house migrants. The consequences of cutting all migrant shelter, an unlikely possibility, could leave thousands on the street.

    Currently, more than 4,700 people are in city-run shelters, according to Laura Swartz with the Department of Finance. In total, the city has spent more than $38 million in its response efforts.

    “While we are advising newcomers that our migrant shelters are nearly at capacity, we are continuing to see a steady stream of new arrivals, with 200 new people who have arrived in just the past two days,” Swartz explained in an email. “If the pace of this humanitarian crisis need continues in 2024 as it has over the past few months of 2023, Denver’s migrant sheltering expenses could reach as high as $15 million per month.”

    https://denverite.com/2024/01/09/mayor-mike-johnston-asks-for-city-agency-spending-cuts-to-fund-denvers-migrant-response/

    $15 million per month is that a lot?

    1. we are continuing to see a steady stream of new arrivals

      Eventually they will outnumber Denver taxpayers.Denver’s doom loop is accelerating. It is advisable to stay out of Denver.

  5. On top of that, thanks to a new, much more expensive insurance policy, their homeowner’s association fees recently doubled to nearly $1,000 a month.

    Gosh, doesn’t sound like much of that vaunted generational wealth is being built up in Flori-duh shacks & condoze.

  6. ‘If you look at values from the peak to current levels, they are generally 20% to 25% lower than what you could have sold a property for in 2021 or the first half of 2022,’ Connor said.”

    But…but…muh generational wealth!

  7. Willey said people who purchased a condo in an Airbnb-friendly building paid a premium of between 15 and 20 per cent for the investment opportunity. ‘Now that premium seems to have disappeared.’”

    Die, speculator scum.

  8. [We live in a country populated by vast multitudes of totally dumbed-down broke-assed losers.]

    Nearly 30% of Americans behind on debt payments in largest metros, study finds

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/nearly-30-americans-behind-debt-120042548.html

    American households racked up a record $17.29 trillion in debt last year, driven by mortgage, credit card and student loan balances, according to the latest numbers from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Now, fresh data indicates an alarmingly high percentage of consumers began falling behind on their payments at the same time.

    A new study released by LendingTree found 29.6% of residents in the nation’s 100 largest metros were behind on at least one debt payment during the third quarter of 2023, and 27.3% had serious delinquencies that were over 90 days past due or more. More than a quarter, 26.2%, had debt in collections.

    “That’s a huge number of people behind on their debt payments,” LendingTree chief credit analyst Matt Schulz said. “Late payments can damage your credit score, making things even tougher on you financially.”

    More than a third of millennials (36.7%), ages 27 to 42 last year, and Gen Zers (36.2%), ages 18 to 26, had at least one delinquent account. Millennials were found to have the highest default rates on credit card accounts (19.6%), auto payments (7.8%), personal loans (8.3%) and other debts (27.9%). However, Gen Xers, ages 43 to 58, were most likely to be behind on a mortgage payment, at 1.2%.

    “In the face of cooling, albeit still high inflation, and steep interest rates, a large number of Americans are struggling to keep up with their debt payments,” LendingTree’s senior economist, Jacob Channel, told FOX Business. “This is especially true for members of younger generations, who might not have the incomes or savings they need to really stay on top of what they owe.

    “While there’s no sugar-coating how tough it can be on your credit score and broader finances when you fall behind on payments, the good news is that being delinquent on debt isn’t necessarily the end of the world,” Channel said.

    “Though it’s no walk in the park, plenty of people who were once in serious debt have managed to climb out of the hole they found themselves in — especially if they were willing to carefully budget and reign their spending in.”

    In the study, LendingTree analyzed anonymized credit reports of roughly 310,000 users on its platform from the largest 100 metros according to U.S. Census data.

    1. Wait until they realize that the government is prioritizing the invaders over them.

      You have been replaced.

    2. FYI, here’s the data from the Lending Tree report, by generation. I apologize for the formatting.

      Important note: these % include student loan debt, which probably accounts for a lot of the “1 account late.” I do find the % of the 90 days late and Collections to be rather high. I don’t think student loans fall into those categories, (?) so people are really struggling.

      Generation 1 account 3+ accounts 90 days late in Collections
      Boomer 20.3% 2.9% 18.6% 17.9%
      Gen X 30.2% 5.9% 27.9% 27.0%
      Millennial 36.7% 7.4% 34.1% 33.0%
      Gen Z 36.2% 5.1% 32.6% 30.7%

  9. [This article has absolutely nothing to do with housing but I am posting it anyway because I find it interesting.]

    Oil Fields Are Refilling…
    Naturally – Sometimes Rapidly
    There Are More Oil Seeps Than All The Tankers On Earth

    https://rense.com/general63/refil.htm

    [Here is a snip …]

    Deep underwater, and deeper underground, scientists see surprising hints that gas and oil deposits can be replenished, filling up again, sometimes rapidly.

    Although it sounds too good to be true, increasing evidence from the Gulf of Mexico suggests that some old oil fields are being refilled by petroleum surging up from deep below, scientists report. That may mean that current estimates of oil and gas abundance are far too low.

    Recent measurements in a major oil field show “that the fluids were changing over time; that very light oil and gas were being injected from below, even as the producing [oil pumping] was going on,” said chemical oceanographer Mahlon “Chuck” Kennicutt. “They are refilling as we speak. But whether this is a worldwide phenomenon, we don’t know.”

    Also not known, Kennicutt said, is whether the injection of new oil from deeper strata is of any economic significance, whether there will be enough to be exploitable. The discovery was unexpected, and it is still “somewhat controversial” within the oil industry.

    Kennicutt, a faculty member at Texas A&M University, said it is now clear that gas and oil are coming into the known reservoirs very rapidly in terms of geologic time. The inflow of new gas, and some oil, has been detectable in as little as three to 10 years. In the past, it was not suspected that oil fields can refill because it was assumed the oil formed in place, or nearby, rather than far below.

    According to marine geologist Harry Roberts, at Louisiana State University, “petroleum geologists don’t accept it as a general phenomenon because it doesn’t happen in most reservoirs. But in this case, it does seem to be happening. You have a very leaky fault system that does allow it to migrate in. It’s directly connected to an oil and gas generating system at great depth.”

    What the scientists suspect is that very old petroleum — formed tens of millions of years ago — has continued migrating up into reservoirs that oil companies have been exploiting for years. But no one had expected that depleted oil fields might refill themselves.

    [There is more but too much more to be posted here in its entirety.]

    1. [Here is another interesting non-housing related article that is somewhat related to the above article.]

      If fossil fuels come from fossils, why have scientists found them on one of Saturn’s moons?

      https://joannenova.com.au/2024/01/if-fossil-fuels-come-from-fossils-why-have-scientists-found-them-on-one-of-saturns-moons/

      They didn’t tell us, the term “fossil fuels” might be wrong too
      Dr Willie Soon unleashes on the failures of climate change and modern science for 40 minutes with Tucker Carlson (see below). As an opening he explained how one of Saturn’s moons has more liquid fuel than than all the oil and gas deposits of Earth, which rather pokes a hole in the idea that fossil fuels are only ever made from fossils.

      Essentially a frozen, lifeless moon with no dinosaurs, forests or peat bogs, somehow has lakes of methane. Not only does Titan have liquid seas of hydrocarbon fuel — but we’ve known this for years. In fact even in 2005 a NASA scientist quietly admitted that Titan had methane that wasn’t made from fossils. But where was NASA in the 18 years since?

      Soon explains that Titan proves that abiotic oil and gas formation is true. In 2009 an experiment showed that when methane is put under great pressure like the kind we find 50-100 miles underground, it can form more complex hydrocarbons. (Kolesnikov). Several papers in the last dozen years find more exotic kinds of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons all over the place, like in Titan’s atmosphere and even forming in deep cold interstellar space. (Zhao, Parker, Freissinet) They also found benzene on Mars.

      On his CERES sites, Willie Soon explains that in practical terms, we don’t know how much of the oil and gas on earth is made without fossils (in an abiogenic process). It could be forming 50 to 100 miles down, but we’re only drilling 6 to 8 miles deep. I seems we have little idea. Even if abiotic oil exists on Earth, it may form too slowly to be useful. Though there have been these odd claims out there for years that some oil fields are refilling.

      What we do know, says Jo, is that they’re not trying to understand this, and they’re not trying to tell us the whole truth either. We’ve taught two generations of children that there is one simple narrative, and if you questioned it you were an idiot. Isn’t it time a civilization dependent on these fuels had an honest discussion about where they came from?

      There’s a lot more in the interview about his experience at Harvard, and climate science and the sun.

      1. —–
        “They didn’t tell us, the term “fossil fuels” might be wrong”
        —–

        Jesus H. People really *are* stupid. Of course they told us the term “fossil fuel” is wrong. They told us that fossil fuels are decayed ancient plants, and they told us this in HIGH SCHOOL. The phrase “fossil fuel” dates back to 1759, when we had a different definition of “fossil.” [per Wiki] However, the phrase is so linguistically convenient that it persisted despite its older origins.

        As for methane, it can be formed from either from the combination of simple molecules (Sabatier-type process), or from the decay of complex molecules. The lakes of methane on other planets and moons are clearly the a result of the former.

        The author of this hit piece is deliberately trying to fool us. Any high school senior taking AP chem could blow this guy back to his flat-earth cave, and shame on Tucker for buying it.

        1. I’ve always been skeptical of the dead dinosaur theory of oil. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense that organic matter from a billion years ago turns into oil under pressure in underground caverns, huh?

          It’s possible that science has it wrong and oil has an abiotic nature. Man is wrong about a lot of things. We don’t know everything and we get way ahead of our selves. It’s OK if science got this wrong.

          1. But like all science, a hypothesis must be tested and proved. But it all starts with a theory derived from evidence. And until then, its an interesting theory and scientists will keep investigating.

  10. Is inflationed contained now, offering hope for a return to 3% 30-year mortgage rates any day?

    1. Robert Kiyosaki
      @theRealKiyosaki
      INFLATION or DEFLATION? What if the PhDs at White House, Treasury & Fed put economy into HYPERINFLATION? I hope not…but what if our leaders F’up, the dollar collapses and we have HYPERINFLATION? That’s why I bought 5 more Bitcoin today. What are you going to do? Trust your self not our leaders. They’re losers
      with PhDs.
      9:23 PM · Jan 10, 2024
      from Dallas, TX·
      186.4K
      Views

      2. Kiyosaki used to have some good points, but he’s a shill now. He’ll hype anything in any interview to get brownie points. Extra brownie points for hating on PhDs.

        1. I wonder if eggheads at the Fed look at Bitcoin bubbles and crashes as a safety release valve for inflation. CR8Ring crypto can create negative wealth effects that suck excess spending power out of the economy, reducing inflationary pressures.

          1. For all the hullaballoo about the now-approved Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin itself only rose 1/2% today. So I guess that approval had already been priced in last week. So, what other events will there be to pump the price of BTC?

            And those BTC fools still think that BTC is the “hardest money in the world” and that it can’t be printed like fiat. Ha. Maybe I should introduce them to GLD and SLV and ask how “hard” those ounces are.

          2. Are you missing the chance to HODL spot Bitcoin ETFs before its market cap bubbles to $12,000,000,000,000!?

            So long as the Fed leaves some alcohol in the punchbowl, Bitcoin can only go up from here.

          3. News and Insight for the Digital Economy
            Bitcoin
            | On January 11, 2024
            $12,000,000,000,000 Bitcoin Market Cap Incoming, Predicts Anthony Scaramucci – Here’s the Timeline
            By Mark Emem
            $12,000,000,000,000 Bitcoin Market Cap Incoming, Predicts Anthony Scaramucci – Here’s the Timeline

            The founder and CEO of SkyBridge Capital Anthony Scaramucci believes that the total market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) could rise more than 13-fold from the current level.

            Scaramucci says in a new CNBC interview that BTC’s total market cap stands to potentially equal that of Bitcoin with the entry of mainstream investors following the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
            …
            https://dailyhodl.com/2024/01/11/12000000000000-bitcoin-market-cap-incoming-predicts-anthony-scaramucci-heres-the-timeline

          4. “The World Gold Council estimates that the amount of the yellow metal mined throughout history stands at approximately 209,000 tonnes – valued at around $12 trillion. Bitcoin’s market cap currently stands at nearly $893 million.”

            $12 trillion = 12,000 billion dollars
            $893 million = 0.893 billion dollars

            By long division, the total value of yellow metal is 12,000/0.893 = 13,438 times the Bitcoin market cap.

            Professor Bear’s spot prediction:

            This amount of increase in the relative value of Bitcoin to gold will never happen before Bitcoin goes to $0.

          5. The problem with gold is that you can’t conjure it up on your computer. At least it’s a problem for us old reality types.

  11. [Here is a non-housing related article that contains an 8 minute video. I am posting it as information to the HBB community in general but especially to Housing Wizard.]
     
    Dr. Matthew Wielicki: I Refuse to Stay Silent about Climate Change

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/09/dr-matthew-wielicki-i-refuse-to-stay-silent-about-climate-change/

    When Dr. Matthew Wielicki refused to stay silent about climate change and earth science, he became a professor-in-exile. Even though members of the scientific community routinely discuss the negative effects of irrational fear in private, they dare not speak out lest they lose their positions and research funds. Dr. Wielicki shares his story and encourages the next generation to reject the doomsday narrative and maintain hope for the future.

  12. “the distress is going to be focused in the small subset of multifamily that is value-add properties refinanced between 2020 and early 2022 with short-term debt and the intention of flipping them in a couple of years.’”

    Die speculator scum.

    And this practice is doubly scummy. These scum take what we really need the most — Class B and C basic housing — and glam it up so they can jack the rent.

    I wouldn’t object to fixing up trashed units to provide semi-subsidized housing for people with JOBS. But in order to keep that housing, you need to be subject to inspections and a quarterly query to the IRS to make sure you are working that job and paying taxes. Otherwise, your sh!t is on the sidewalk.

    1. provide semi-subsidized housing

      There is an ancient system that works without government bureaucrats or socialism. If you don’t pay, your stuff is automatically out on the street. Easy peasey. Places to stay would be cheaper too.

  13. I got this in an email:

    Absentee Owner Says, “Sell Below Cost”

    OFFERED AT $11,850,000
    9040 W Sunset Blvd #1203
    WEST HOLLYWOOD, CA 90069

    This is an amazing opportunity to live in the luxury and convenience that owning a condominium in the Edition provides. Unit 1203 is the best location in the building as it’s on the S/E corner and opens to outstanding views from downtown to the ocean. Designed by regarded architect John Pawson, 1203 has been upgraded to include a kitchen that closes off from the dining and living room, a dedicated breakfast room, an independent guest bedroom ensuite, a 3rd bedroom that has been converted to a den with bathroom, and a most generous and luxurious primary suite with sitting area, walk-in closet, and designer bathroom. There is a 912 sf terrace that runs from the living room to the den and primary bedroom. Electronic shades and blackout shades, motorized doors in the living room, den, and primary, plus so much more. Not only is this being offered for substantially less than the purchase price but there is also a tenant who will stay, if desired, and is paying $45k per month. Or tenant will move so you can enjoy the private owners’ pool, state-of-the-art gymnasium, rooftop restaurant, gourmet restaurant, room service, dedicated concierge, and valet parking. Showings only after an offer is made.

    1. “…there is also a tenant who will stay, if desired, and is paying $45k per month….”

      I must travel in the wrong circles.

      What is someone’s occupation that allows them to pay $45k/mo for rent, especially in West Hollywood? (Think homeless, graffiti, gridlock traffic).

  15. People are Stupid.
    Thanks for post on Climate change.
    The extortion, bribery, job threat, blackmail, censorship that has corrupted Science is evident.
    This pre- planned One World Order dictorship ,justified by the emergency Great Narratives, that are a fraud, is evident.
    At the last Climate Summit, the usual suspects, like King Charles , claim that Climate Change Doomsday is dire and worthy of speeding up the genocidal elimination of co2 emissions. that humans , animals, plants, and fossil fuels emit.
    Time is of the Essense emergencies and trust the Science of fake expiermental fake vaccines, lockdowns and masks to save lives.
    A pre planned UN 2030 Sustainable Earth Agenda, that’s premised in earth can not be sustained without depopulation, imprisoned and deprived humans, and zero co2 emissions by 2050.
    Just as the fake vaccines were a epic fraud, so are the Climate Change narrative solutions.
    The biggest threat to humanity is the fraudster psychopaths trying to emblematic the biggest con jobs in history to genocide and enslave humanity.

  16. Live for today isn’t as crazy as it sounds.
    I find that most social engineering CON JOBS involve getting people to give up benefit of today for perceived benefit of the way distant future. This gives the opportunity for looting people today for perceived benefits in far future, that never gets delivered.
    EXAMPLES:
    Overpay for health care when your young and healthy for 50 years, and Pay into Medicare, for the perceived benefit of having health care when your old and unhealthy on Medicare.
    Pay into social security for 40 or 50 years and a pension plan for perceived benefit of survival after retirement.
    Pay insurance premiums for perceived value of making a claim in future.
    Work hard and slave for the man, so you can retire when your unhealthy after being thrashed working for the Man for half a century.
    Isn’t it always you get benefit delayed while they get benefit now and for a lifetime, in return for.
    a shorter period of unhealthy retirement.
    And good luck keeping up with inflation when considering future 50 years in future.
    It’s like Whimy saying give me a hamburger today for a hamburger tomorrow.
    Not that being a person that saves and plans for future doesn’t have merits.
    But for instance, in my youth, I paid 7 bucks a month health care and my Company paid the rest. That’s was the price for a young healthy person, who actually had low need for health care. Fast forward to Obama care where a young healthy person could be charged 20 thousand based on their income.
    They target whereever the money is in the now .

      1. That’s a good question. Of course many things could be intolerable, but perhaps some more than others. Perhaps it is something we haven’t even contemplated. What if Elon Musk is right and we will be expected to turn over our homes to the invaders? Right now that seems highly unlikely.

  17. Oh dear, another car rental company has decided EV’s (in particular, Teslas) ain’t all that…

    “Hertz, which has made a big push into electric vehicles in recent years, has decided it’s time to cut back. The company will sell off a third of its electric fleet, totaling roughly 20,000 vehicles, and use the money they bring to purchase more gasoline powered vehicles.

    Electric vehicles have been hurting Hertz’s financials, executives have said, because, despite costing less to maintain, they have higher damage-repair costs and, also, higher depreciation.

    “[C]ollision and damage repairs on an EV can often run about twice that associated with a comparable combustion engine vehicle,” Hertz CEO Stephen Scherr said in a recent analyst call.

    And EV price declines in the new car market have pushed down the resale value of Hertz’s used EV rental cars.”

    Also, I thought Teslas were supposed to be so much safer (which I interpret to mean they get in fewer crashes)?

    “Besides costing more to repair when they’re damaged in a crash, Scherr also said, EVs are also getting in more crashes. Again, Teslas, which make up 80% of Hertz’s EV rental fleet, are mostly the problem in both these areas, he has said.

    “Our work with Tesla is to look at the performance of the car, so as to lower the risk of incidence of damage,” he said…”

    2. Hertz has been plastering YouTube with ads featuring Tom Brady and an actress re-creating memorable moments from Oprah. It’s embarrassing. And who would want to rent an electric car, especially as a tourist. There are few plug-in spaces at the hotels, and nobody will waste precious vacation hours charging up to 80%.

      And didn’t Hertz almost go out of business during early COVID? Where did they get the dinero for Tom Brady?

    3. Also, I thought Teslas were supposed to be so much safer (which I interpret to mean they get in fewer crashes)?

      They are supposed to have supercar acceleration, so I could see some renter going pedal to the metal and getting into a crash.

  18. GTA Condo Real Estate Update – Condo Maintenance Fees Out Of Control (Jan 3, 2024)
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    22 hours ago

    In this episode we take a look at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering. We also look at market trends for week ending January 3, 2023. Lastly we discuss the rise in maintenance fees and why price relief does not seem to be on the horizon for any condo owners.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaK9c88-Ywk

    16:27.

  19. ‘Like Airbnb owners across B.C., Debra Sheets is in a holding pattern. The Victoria resident talked to a realtor about selling her 250-square-foot unit in The Janion building that she bought in 2017 for $420,000. However, she was told she would be lucky to get $350,000, a loss she can’t afford as she nears retirement’

    Every time it comes up, this ‘loss you can’t afford’ thing eludes me Debra. It would seem you’ve already afforded it.

    1. a loss she can’t afford

      No one was expecting to have to bring a check to a closing when selling. The trees were going to grow past the moons orbit.

  20. ‘Having an abandoned house in your area means a buyer will use that as leverage to get the price down on a neighbouring property,’ he said. ‘It’s like a disease…’

    That’s the spirit buyers, outstanding!

  21. ‘The ruling Communist Party has since spent some 610 billion yuan ($85 billion) on the city, more than double the cost of the Three Gorges Dam’

    You have to be in it to win it Xitler.

      1. Hair-of-the-dog stimulus may not work for long if pouring more concrete to build more unloved structures is involved.

  22. “Welcome to HOAs; they’re the worst thing in Florida, sometimes”

    Sometimes? Try always.
    Five will get you ten those good folks get their hard work blown away again in the coming years.

  24. Paranoid Dems Introduce Unconstitutional Bill Banning Militias

    by Kelen McBreen
    January 11th 2024, 5:35 pm

    Senator Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Congressman Jamie Raskin (MD-08) introduced legislation on Thursday that would effectively outlaw militias in America.

    The proposal highlights Democrats’ complete disregard for the U.S. Constitution as the Second Amendment of the Bill of Rights clearly states, “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

    Senator Markey issued a statement explaining why he supports the legislation, saying:

    “Three years ago, white supremacists affiliated with paramilitary organizations stormed the U.S. Capitol, shattering windows, walls, and the families of five U.S. Capitol police officers. Private paramilitary actors, such as the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, pose a serious threat to democracy and the rule of law, and we must create new prohibitions on their unauthorized activities that interfere with the exercise of people’s constitutional rights. The forces of bigotry, hatred, and violent extremism must be stopped for the sake of our democracy.”

    Congressman Raskin said:

    “Patrolling neighborhoods, impeding law enforcement and storming the U.S. Capitol, private paramilitary groups like the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters and the Proud Boys are using political violence to intimidate our people and threaten democratic government and the rule of law. Our legislation makes the obvious but essential clarification that these domestic extremists’ paramilitary operations are in no way protected by our Constitution. I’m grateful to Senator Markey for his partnership on this critical effort to protect the rule of law, deter insurrection and defend our democracy.”

    https://www.infowars.com/breaking-news/

    1. the families of five U.S. Capitol police officers

      Repeating this lie over and over will never make it true.

  26. https:// nitter.poast.org/ ThinkAppraiser/ status/1745224445063729504#m:

    Just had a long conversation with a separate real estate agent about insurance issues for property for california clients. One’s insurance went from $4000 a year to $18,000 a year.

    She also cited at least five examples of deals falling apart because of insurance issues

    My own sale in the inland empire is having issues because of insurance quote coming back almost 2.5 times as high as expected

    This could completely freeze the California real estate market in many areas and I think it already is

    I thought the first of the year things would start off with a bang and so far it’s been a trickle

    Crazy times we live in

    2. This could completely freeze the California real estate market in many areas and I think it already is

      MOre than just the real estate market. People who already can’t make ends meet will crumble if their insurance premium goes up a thousands p er year. And I’ll bet auto insurance is going up, up and away too.

      2. It’s the timing that interests me, e.g., old folks SS increases are decided before the year’s end, and then everything else jumps right after the new year. Always behind. 🙂

        1. Always behind

          My SS check went up 3% in January. My trash bill went up 20% also in January. One telegraphed, the other not.

Comments are closed.