thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

What We’re Seeing Here Is The Collapse Of Speculation

A report from Island News in Hawaii. “Oahu’s housing market has started to cool down, and there are areas such as the North Shore where prices have dropped dramatically. The Honolulu Board of Realtors tells Island News that single-family homes on the North Shore have seen the largest decline in median sales price, with a 20% drop to $1.4 million. The area also saw a 41% decline in the amount of homes sold. These figures compare year-to-date December 2023 prices and sales to the same time period a year ago. ‘This is a really interesting market that we’re in right now,’ Fran Gendrano, president of the Honolulu Board of Realtors, told Island News. ‘We haven’t seen something like this in 20 years and I always believe that there’s balance. There’s cause and effect. There’s balance in marketplace with supply and demand and home ownership is for everybody.'”

KVUE in Texas. “Research from the Austin Board of Realtors shows the median Austin-Round Rock housing price for 2023 was $450,000, 10.2% lower than the previous year. December 2023 also saw a decrease in closed listings and homes stayed on the market for approximately 84 days compared to 75 days in the previous year.’ ‘Housing is the most crucial infrastructure within a community,’ said 2024 ABoR president Kent Redding. ‘Our housing market is still demand driven and the anomalies over the past three years were unsustainable.'”

The Sacramento Bee in California. “One of the most remarkable homes in the Sacramento region — a modern hilltop estate with a resort-like, infinity-edge pool that wraps around the entire back of the estate — sold Wednesday for just over $2 million. The El Dorado County estate is stacked with extraordinary features. Built in 2012, the high-tech home sits on 40 private acres surrounded by oak woodland. ‘My jaw dropped when I first saw the photos of this property due to the quality of construction and sweeping views of the valley,’ Sacramento appraiser and housing market expert Ryan Lundquist told the Sacramento Bee last summer when the home first listed for $3.65 million.”

Bakersfield.com in California. “Bakersfield’s apartment market notched a come-from-behind win for investors in 2023, though it’s questionable whether it will manage to pull off another gain this year, according to a year-in-review report and forecast from local brokerage ASU Commercial. Thurston reported the number of units that sold in Bakersfield declined by more than a quarter as vacancies increased and rent growth slowed dramatically. Plus, in a sign of unrealistic expectations by investors, the number of properties listed for sale rose from 23 in the spring to 55 by Dec. 31, which ASU multifamily specialist Marc Thurston attributed to ‘mixed signals coming from the marketplace.’ ‘Buyers could be selective about where they invested, while sellers tended to ignore the market signals and, in many cases, sought unachievable prices,’ he wrote.”

The New York Post. “Blackstone defaulted on the $308 million mortgage on a Manhattan office tower more than a year ago — and the debt is now up for sale at a discount of more than 50%. Special servicer Midland Loan Services was hired by brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle to sell Blackstone’s loan, which is backed by 1740 Broadway, a 26-story Art Deco-style tower between 55th and 56th streets, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. The skyscraper has been losing value since 2014, when the mortgage was originated and 1740 Broadway was appraised at $605 million, according to loan documents reviewed by Bloomberg. Brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle was hired to sell Blackstone’s defaulted New York City loan. It’s packaging the $308 million debt into a commercial mortgage-backed security and selling it at a 51% discount.”

“At the time, Blackstone’s EQ — its US office portfolio company — had just bought the 600,000-square-foot property from real-estate investment trust Vornado. It was reportedly full of tenants paying below-market rents, with a source telling The Post that EQ ‘overpaid for the building by at least $100 million.’ The debt was sent to special servicing in March 2022, when Blackstone shocked the real-estate world by transferring a $308 million loan on the building. ‘How could one of the world’s biggest landlords quit on a relatively modest $308 million loan, after they spent a fortune on modernizing the building with a new lobby and restaurant?’ one observer mused to The Post at the time.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Onlookers have been busily predicting the outlook for real estate in 2024, but one hangover from 2023 still looms over the market: observers say a remarkably high number of homes are still being sold under power of sale. Most mortgage agreements allow the lender to force the sale of a property if a borrower fails to make required payments. ‘Most of the stuff you’re seeing now is reno flips gone bad,’ said Ron Butler, broker and owner of Butler Mortgage Inc., referring to homes that appear to have racked up big debts to renovate and upgrade to attract a higher-end buyer. ‘What we’re seeing here is the collapse of speculation: it takes a while to collapse; it’s never instantaneous … there’s a policy point where the lender says ‘let’s cut our losses.’”

“In the greater Toronto region – the country’s largest real estate market – there are dozens of power of sale listings, and more being added all the time with a surge of new court filings in the new year. The home at 61 Shannon Blvd. is for sale by lender Vault Capital Inc., listed with an asking price of $3.599-million. In early 2023, it sat unsold for three months after being listed for $5.398-million. According to property records, it was transferred to Brampton-based Emerald Buildings Investment Ltd. for $2.050-million in 2019. In March, 2022, Vault Capital lent $1.64-million against the property (a sum that was added to with subsequent refinancings) at the peak of the valuation bubble in Ontario real estate. Now, Vault is seeking repayment of $2.8-million, which is on top of another almost $2.9-million registered against the property by a variety of numbered companies, individuals and other lenders.”

“Regardless of how much it may have cost Emerald to renovate the Shannon house, realtor Scott Ingram doubts it could ever have attained the sale price it needed to break even. ‘In the history of Trinity-Bellwoods (and Little Portugal beside it, where this one is close to) there have only ever been three sales over $5-million,’ said Mr. Ingram, a realtor with Century 21 Regal Realty Inc. He says those $5-million properties were either significantly bigger or more unique than Shannon, and, in his opinion, the house might more realistically be priced at about $3-million. ‘Unfortunately for them, the market doesn’t care how much you paid for it, or put into it, or how much money you need. It cares about how much it’s worth.'”

The Evening Standard. “Half of homes that changed hands in England and Wales last year sold after a price reduction, according to new data from Hamptons. Its review of the 2023 property market found that only 22 per cent of London homes sold above asking price – down 11 per cent on the previous year. Only Wales saw a lower percentage of the ten regions surveyed. While a wave of multi-million pound price cuts on London mansions hit the headlines in the autumn, January tends to see the deepest discounts at more pedestrian price tags from sellers that fail to get deals over the line before the end of the year. And this year looks set to offer even bigger discounts than usual for those who can get a mortgage in place. Here are ten London homes with hefty price cuts, from a Spitalfields flat down £100k to Notting Hill and Maida Vale townhouses now well under a million.”

“Maida Vale, W9. Was £1m, now £795,000. A four-double bedroom house with garden, close to the canal and ten minutes from the Tube. There’s well over 1,000 square feet of space here, though some modernisation is required. Notting Hill, W10. Was £1.1m, now £875,000, A newly modernised three-bedroom, three-bathroom townhouse tucked away on a turning off Latimer Road, on the border with Ladbroke Grove. There are several Tube stations in range and no onward chain.”

From News.com.au. “A building company has appointed administrators and all work has urgently been paused, plunging nearly 100 homeowners into limbo. On Monday, Victorian-based building firm Montego Homes Pty Ltd went into voluntary administration. Sam Kaso and Shaun Matthews of insolvency firm Cor Cordis have been appointed as the administrators and halted all construction work while they desperately hunt for a buyer. The building firm, with headquarters in South Melbourne, has reportedly left 90 homeowners in the lurch. A further 11 people, who were staff at the business, also have an uncertain future. On its still-active website, Montego Homes styles itself as a company offering house and land packages ‘across Australia.’ There are currently 21 active listings for the different house designs it offers. ‘Build, buy, finance’ is its motto.”

The Inquirer. “The night before China’s civil service exam, Melody Zhang anxiously paced up and down the corridor of her dormitory, rehearsing her answers. Only when she got back to her room did she realize she had been crying the whole time. Zhang was hoping to start a career in state propaganda after more than 100 unsuccessful job applications in the media industry. With a record 2.6 million people going for 39,600 government jobs amid a youth unemployment crisis, she didn’t get through. ‘We were born in the wrong era,’ said the 24-year-old graduate from China’s top Renmin University. ‘No one cares about their dreams and ambitions anymore in an economic downturn. The endless job-hunting is a torture.'”

“Vincent Li, the owner of a high-end coffee shop in Shanghai, took a one-two punch that he says knocked him out of the middle class. As Chinese cut spending, they prefer cheaper coffee. And the two apartments he bought for 4 million yuan ($558,612) in 2017 on the touristy Hainan island haven’t attracted any renting or buying interest in three years. ‘The property market is saturated,’ Li said.”

“In China, 96 percent of the roughly 300 million urban households owned at least one apartment in 2019, according to the latest central bank data. A third owned two, and a tenth owned more. About 70 percent of household savings are invested in property. In some cities, apartments have lost two thirds of their value since the real estate market downturn began in 2021, property agents said, making their owners feel less wealthy and slash their spending.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 112 Comments

  1. ‘single-family homes on the North Shore have seen the largest decline in median sales price, with a 20% drop to $1.4 million. The area also saw a 41% decline in the amount of homes sold. These figures compare year-to-date December 2023 prices and sales to the same time period a year ago. ‘This is a really interesting market that we’re in right now…We haven’t seen something like this in 20 years and I always believe that there’s balance. There’s cause and effect. There’s balance in marketplace with supply and demand and home ownership is for everybody’

    Hitting the sauce early I see Fran. Good thing everybody put 30% down!

  2. ‘Austin Board of Realtors shows the median Austin-Round Rock housing price for 2023 was $450,000, 10.2% lower than the previous year. December 2023 also saw a decrease in closed listings and homes stayed on the market for approximately 84 days compared to 75 days in the previous year.’

    3 years of sinking like a turd in a well and it’s still down 10% YOY.

    ‘Our housing market is still demand driven and the anomalies over the past three years were unsustainable’

    Jerry broke it off in yer a$$ Kent.

  3. ‘We haven’t seen something like this in 20 years and I always believe that there’s balance. There’s cause and effect. There’s balance in marketplace with supply and demand and home ownership is for everybody.’

    20 years seems like a very long wait to restore balance, but given the Fed’s choice of implenenting a protracted period of extraordinary accommodation to underpin asset prices from from 2009-2022, perhaps unsurprising. Now that they are operating at a loss, I wonder if they can continue to play the asset price support role?

    1. The Fed’s $100 billion cash losses should be a far bigger story
      by Paul Kupiec, opinion contributor – 09/26/23 1:20 PM ET
      The seal of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve System is displayed in the ground at the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, Feb. 5, 2018.
      (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

      Editor’s note: This piece was updated to correct the dollar figure associated with mortgage-backed securities owned by the Fed. We regret the error.

      The Federal Reserve’s Sept. 14 H.4.1 release shows that the Fed’s system-wide cash operating losses now surpass $100 billion. The Fed’s losses will continue accumulating at about $2.5 billion per week as long as interest rates remain at current levels.

      By Sept. 30, the end of the 2023 federal fiscal year, the Fed will have spent about $110 billion to cover cash losses — about $9 billion in operating expenses and a bit more than $100 billion in net interest expense. A $110 billion loss is big by any standard, and yet the mystique surrounding the Fed’s money printing power has led many to dismiss the importance of these losses.

      The Fed owns a little under $8 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities which, on average, earn about 2 percent interest. It has paid for these securities by issuing about $2.3 trillion in paper currency (federal reserve notes), more than $500 billion in non-interest-bearing deposits, and borrowed the remaining $5 trillion-plus from banks and money market funds. The Fed currently pays more than 5 percent interest on the money it borrows.

      By convention, the Fed’s losses are not counted as federal government expenditures nor are the Fed’s borrowings counted in U.S. Treasury debt statistics. Nonetheless, these expenditures are federal government expenditures and the Fed’s borrowings stand pari passu with debt issued by the U.S. Treasury.
      …
      https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4221960-the-feds-100-billion-cash-losses-should-be-a-far-bigger-story/

    2. 20 years seems like a very long wait to restore balance,

      Which is why this phrase is so well known:
      The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

  4. “In China, 96 percent of the roughly 300 million urban households owned at least one apartment in 2019, according to the latest central bank data. A third owned two, and a tenth owned more. About 70 percent of household savings are invested in property.”

    It’s insane for everyone to own multiple residential properties, when you think about it. Apparently they have too many housing units to house their very large population, with many currently unoccupied and destined to permanently remain empty. But just think of all the construction jobs that were created to build them. And now they can create more jobs to tear down unneeded housing units.

    Never mind the opportunities to start families and foster strong communities that were wasted by this state sponsored real estate investing craze. It’s Keynesian ditch digging at its worst.

    2. ‘It’s insane for everyone to own multiple residential properties, when you think about it.’

      It is. But in the PRC, that was the only investment opportunity available.

      Here in the USA, everyone funnels their capital into 401ks and the like.

      We are all screwed.

  6. ‘What we’re seeing here is the collapse of speculation: it takes a while to collapse; it’s never instantaneous … there’s a policy point where the lender says ‘let’s cut our losses.’”

    Die, speculator scum.

  7. “It’s packaging the $308 million debt into a commercial mortgage-backed security and selling it at a 51% discount.”

    Dumb questions of the day:

    1) Is 51% a lot?

    2) Is Blackstone too big to fail?

    3. Not fail but this high profile strategic default certainly sullied its reputation and it affect its ability to take nonrecourse loans from lenders in the future. They were pennywise but pound foolish.

  8. . ‘Unfortunately for them, the market doesn’t care how much you paid for it, or put into it, or how much money you need. It cares about how much it’s worth.’”

    But…but…muh entitlement price!

  10. The New York Times literally informs the ungrateful poors that the chocolate ration has been increased from 20g to 15g.

    Why Are Voters So Upset? Consider the Snickers Bar (1/18/2024):

    “Why aren’t voters recognizing the decline in the inflation rate? Because voters are humans, and humans don’t think about inflation rationally. To understand why, let’s look at a Snickers bar.

    Most of us will spend far more of our budget on something like a television. With $1,500 a consumer could buy a high-end 55-inch television, or almost four Snickers bars a day for a year. Because items in the consumer price basket are weighted, roughly, by how much money consumers spend on that item in a year, television prices are more important than Snickers bars in the calculation of inflation.

    However, we probably buy a Snickers bar much more frequently, perhaps even daily. So we’re much more likely to remember the price of the Snickers bar and forget the price of the television we bought last year. Consumers tend to think only about the prices of high-frequency purchases — food for the family and fuel for the S.U.V.”

    https://archive.is/mZi9y

    Note that this, and any similar article from globalist scum media, refuse to admit this country has a cost of living CRISIS.

    1. Not ONLY do we remember the PRICE of the Snickers bar – we remember the SIZE which has likely decreased along with the price increase.

      You can’t hide this shrinkflation from us. When I take the new item home and the old item is still in my fridge or pantry, I notice what has happened. We all do.

      1. and a big item that lots of people don’t realize is that shrinkflation isn’t counted in “official” inflation statistics.

        Yes, believe it or not, they don’t do per ounce costs of whatever.

        If your snickers bar still costs the same as last year but it’s now 9oz instead of 10oz like last time you bought itwell that is officially 0% inflation despite that actually being 10% or so.

      2. And there are 10,000,000 new people in the country competing to buy those same snickers bars as you too now.

  11. An article so bad, words can barely describe, the author is Canadian if that tells you anything.

    The unwelcome unvaxxed (1/15/2024):

    “The unvaccinated citizen is a pesky creature, found in public landscapes, especially discount grocery outlets and anti-government rallies. If you hear the noxious spreaders’ distinctive lower respiratory rasping in the frozen foods section, head straight to the safety of the produce section or quit the store for the closest Liberal Party fundraiser.

    If you asked me in March 2020 if I’d still be COVID-vigilant in January 2024, I’d have scoffed. By 2024, I imagined optimistically, the scientists would have an effective vaccine and we would have beat this thing — together — as a community of caring, concerned citizens.

    Yet, in my age group, 59 to 69, only 27 per cent of Canadians have their booster shots up to date.

    After almost four years on the pandemic front lines, medical staff are burnt out. Yet many yahoos can’t be bothered to get a vaccine booster. Unboosted is unvaccinated.

    But it’s not just about you. The complete lack of concern for others is repugnant. We don’t just vaccinate for self-protection but to protect the vulnerable. The refusal to vax is selfish. It’s reckless. And it’s burdening our overtaxed health-care system.

    I’m here to call out the unvaccinated. It’s been four years. I’m tired of nodding my head patiently while they spout misinformation and ignorant rationales. The unvaxxed are about as welcome at my house as COVID or Pierre Poilievre. I now equate the two. Unvaccinated = COVID carrier.

    Vaccine aversion carries a shameful legacy. Let’s summarize the talking points of an antivaxxer’s forthcoming obituary:

    — Recklessly infected others then minimized the impact of the illness. Went out in public while infectious and refused to mask. “It’s just COVID!”

    — Ignored travel advisories then bragged about exotic trips via Facebook to the obedient housebound.

    — Obnoxiously spread rumours and misinformation about vaccine safety.

    — Gathered in Ottawa to intimidate public officials and demand freedom. Bank account frozen. Mandatory court appearance.

    https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/analysis/2024/01/15/the-unwelcome-unvaxxed

    ^That last quoted sentence, the author is in full support of medical tyranny.

    Patricia, you not only have an incurable case of Mass Formation Psychosis, but from the multiple injections of mRNA poison, your body now has A.I.D.S.

    You don’t have a functioning immune system, and you are going to die.

    1. But it’s not just about you. The complete lack of concern for others is repugnant. We don’t just vaccinate for self-protection but to protect the vulnerable. The refusal to vax is selfish. It’s reckless. And it’s burdening our overtaxed health-care system.

      Wow, just wow. Parroting the same discredited lies while the evidence piles up that COVID “vaccines” have killed and injured countless millions of the vaxxed & boosted.

      1. Parroting the same discredited lies

        Makes me wonder if they’re gonna try to spring this on us again.

    2. I saw this yesterday on Instapundit. At first I thought it was satire, until I realized she was crazy.

    4. Unboosted is unvaccinated.

      Fun thing I’ve noticed — some job applications require just a single vaccine to be eligible. So a JJ in 2021 makes you fully vaxxed.

    1. THere was a time when Angelenos of all stripes subscribed to the times. Now many are disgusted with its extreme leftist views so they don’t subscribe anymore. And young leftists also don’t subscribe, because its a newspaper, and who reads those, even the online versions?

    2. Real Journalists is glorious.

      I admit it. I am NOT a nice guy and I do enjoy seeing an occasional bad thing happen to people who think they are “my betters.”
      I don’t personally know any of them but from some of the articles I have seen, oh yeah, I definitely won’t be donating to any of their “Go Fund Me Pages.”

  13. Financial Times
    FT Alphaville US interest rates
    US rates still looking recession-ish
    Luckily they’re pricing a couple of other possibilities too
    Bonds vs equities
    Alexandra Scaggs yesterday

    Sorry to all the stonkheads: Bonds are still boss. From Morgan Stanley’s equity team on Tuesday:

    “Bond Market Still in Charge . . . Over the past 6 months, interest rates have been the most important determinant of equity index performance, in our view. We see this continuing in the near term, and believe interest rate volatility is an important consideration for equity investors, particularly as economic forecasts have centered around a narrow range of outcomes. We also think it’s worth exploring the differences between how the bond market and the equity market price the future path of the fed funds rate.”

    This is, uh, not surprising, given all the inflation and the fast rate hikes and now the impending cuts and whatnot.

    But this makes it important to dig into what exactly it means that fed funds futures are pricing in 150 basis points of cuts this year, and why fund managers surveyed by BofA are more convinced about imminent easing than they were in, uh, March 2020 and November 2008 . . . 

    For example, when Goldman Sachs said late last year that the amount of rate cuts priced into the fed funds futures market were unlikely to show up outside of a recession, does that mean the average bond fund manager or rates trader believes that a recession is coming in 2024?
    …

    1. Bonds
      10-year Treasury yield hits 5-week high after strong retail sales data
      Published Wed, Jan 17 2024 4:22 AM EST
      Updated Wed, Jan 17 2024 4:12 PM EST
      Hakyung Kim
      Matt Clinch

      Key Points

      – Treasury yields rose Wednesday, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4.1%.

      – The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was last up 5 basis points at 4.113%, after trading as high as 4.12%, the highest level since Dec. 13.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/17/treasury-yields-edge-higher-as-investors-monitor-data-and-fed-comments.html

      1. Did bond traders miss the memo that mortgage rates are headed down to 2021 levels any day now?

        1. More People Think Mortgage Rates Are Going to Fall — How Likely Is It?
          By: Aly J. Yale Reviewed By: Aleksandra Kadzielawski
          January 18, 2024 – 2 min read
          Consumer perception of mortgage rates

          Consumers are getting increasingly optimistic about mortgage rates. In fact, according to the most recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index from mortgage purchaser Fannie Mae, nearly a third of consumers surveyed expect mortgage rates to fall in the next 12 months — a record-high for the index.

          It’s also a big month-over-month improvement. In November, just 17% of survey respondents thought mortgage rates would go down in the next year, and a whopping 47% said they’d actually increase.

          As Mark Palim, vice president and deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae, put it, “Mortgage rate optimism increased dramatically this month.”
          …
          https://themortgagereports.com/110135/mortgage-rates-likely-to-fall

  15. Sponsored Content by Hewlett Packard Enterprise
    The Pros of Hybrid Cloud: Essential Insights for IT Decision Makers Read more.
    Updated 22 hours ago –
    Economy
    How China’s economy is faltering on multiple fronts
    Courtenay Brown, author of
    Axios Macro
    The freight yard of Nanjing Railway Station in Nanjing, Jiangsu, China. Photo: Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    The world’s second-largest economy is in a different position than much of the rest of the globe: It’s trying to stir up demand to blunt slowing growth and falling prices.

    Why it matters: The economy rebounded from the 3% growth in 2022, which came as a result of its zero-COVID policy that stymied the economy.

    China grew 5.2% last year, the government said — “higher than the ‘around 5%’ target set at the beginning of last year,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said at the World Economic Forum.

    But the figure comes as economists warn that China’s economy is faltering — with uncertain consequences for the rest of the world.

    What to watch: Other economic data shows weakening demand in what has been the world’s powerhouse for growth.

    Data out last week showed prices across the Chinese economy continued to fall for the third straight month in December.

    Home prices and property sales also declined rapidly, a sign of the weakening property sector that had once fueled its growth.

    The government also resumed publishing its youth unemployment rate: As of December, the jobless rate for people ages 16-24 was nearly 15% (down from the last published figure of 21% in June).

    The bottom line: “The recovery clearly remains shaky,” analysts at Capital Economics wrote in a note. “While we still anticipate some near-term boost from policy easing, this is unlikely to prevent a renewed slowdown later this year.”
    …
    https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/china-economy-risks

    1. China’s slow lurch back from COVID
      They flocked to build China’s cities. Now builders are aging with little retirement
      JANUARY 18, 2024 5:00 AM ET
      Emily Feng at NPR headquarters in Washington, D.C., March 19, 2019. (photo by Allison Shelley)
      Emily Feng
      27-Minute Listen
      Construction workers build a housing compound in Beijing.
      Aowen Cao/NPR

      About 30 years ago, construction worker Song Aimin believed a lifetime of labor could earn him a spot among China’s growing urban middle class. He left his village in the northern Hebei province and headed to Beijing.

      “Back then, all the people in the villages wanted to leave to go find work in the cities. Laboring in the cities meant that you always ate well — at least, better than you ate back home,” says Song, now 64 years old. “Everyone went to the cities to make money and to improve their lives.”

      Song is among the country’s estimated 300 million migrant workers who moved from one region of China to another seeking employment. Their labor helped propel China’s growth in the past four decades, flowing into booming cities when their labor was needed.

      Now, these workers are approaching retirement age, and China must deal with the costs of supporting an aging workforce. Although they built much of the country’s infrastructure, migrant workers remain the most vulnerable in the country’s fast-aging workforce.
      …
      https://www.npr.org/2024/01/18/1220819373/china-economy-aging-construction-workers

      1. “Brother, Can You Spare a Dime,”

        They used to tell me I was building a dream, and so I followed the mob,
        When there was earth to plow, or guns to bear, I was always there right on the job.

        They used to tell me I was building a dream, with peace and glory ahead,
        Why should I be standing in line, just waiting for bread?

        Once I built a railroad, I made it run, made it race against time.
        Once I built a railroad; now it’s done. Brother, can you spare a dime?
        …
        https://socialwelfare.library.vcu.edu/eras/great-depression/brother-can-you-spare-a-dime-1932/

        1. “Brother, can you spare a dime?”

          We’ve come a long way since 1932. Who could even spend a dime today if they had one to spare? You can’t buy anything for under a dollar any more.

          1. A 1932 dime was 90% silver. We had real money back then. Now we have a debt-based fiat currency system with Yellen Bux backed by nothing.

          3. That dime has $1.65 worth of silver. It will still get you a cup of coffee.

            Most local coin shops want 21X face value for so-called “junk” U.S. silver coinage. Not sure where you can still get a cup of coffee for $1.65.

          5. Not sure where you can still get a cup of coffee for $1.65

            Perhaps at McDonalds? Not sure, as I don’t drink coffee.

      2. Beware, the looming masses of disaffected, unemployed Chinese workers may be coming to a southern border near you.

        “…These arrivals are part of a staggering new trend. In the first 11 months of 2023, more than 31,000 Chinese citizens were picked up by law enforcement crossing illegally into the US from Mexico, government data shows – compared with an average of roughly 1,500 per year over the preceding decade.”

        https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/08/americas/china-us-migrants-illegal-crossings-intl-hnk-dst/index.html

    1. [From the link …]

      As Slay News previously reported, one of the masterminds behind the WEF agenda has begun raising the alarm about the “very likely” possibility that President Donald Trump will win reelection this year.

      Yuval Noah Harari serves as a senior advisor to the WEF and Schwab and is listed as an “agenda contributor” of the unelected globalist organization.

      Speaking during a new interview, Harari was asked if he’s “concerned that Trump might be elected again.”

      “I think it’s very likely,” Harari responded.

      “And if it happens, it is likely to be the kind of – like – the death blow to what remains of the global order.

      “And, he says it openly.

      1. “And if it happens, it is likely to be the kind of – like – the death blow to what remains of the global order.

        It would be so tragic if a “global order” that benefits only a corrupt and venal .1% in the sociopathic globalist oligarchy were to suffer a death blow.

  17. U.S. executives in Davos see a Trump victory in 2024, and no cause for concern

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/18/davos-us-executives-see-a-trump-victory-in-2024.html

    Both publicly and privately, U.S. executives said at Davos they weren’t concerned if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.

    Banking leaders, in particular, expressed confidence that America will be OK if Trump returns to the White House.

    Several World Economic Forum attendees said non-American executives have privately expressed far more trepidation about a Trump 2024 victory than American leaders.

    [A snip …]

    Another U.S. bank CEO privately expressed annoyance with media exaggeration of the threat of a Trump presidency, stressing he’s “all bark and no bite.” The bank chief also dismissed Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election as bloviation.

    “He’s going to win the presidency,” the CEO predicted. “Many of his policies were right.”

    1. “Many of his policies were right.”

      Minus some unfinished business: Build the wall, deport them ALL.

  18. Renewing your mortgage at a higher rate? Here’s what that could look like
    CBC News: The National
    18 hours ago

    Nearly half of all Canadian mortgages will be up for renewal in the next two years — many at higher rates than before. CBC’s Lyndsay Duncombe breaks down what that could look like for homeowners and gets expert advice about preparing for the financial hit.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xaPSpTL48k

    5:43.

  20. [A nation of broke-assed losers.]

    ‘Moving in the wrong direction’: More and more US households use credit cards to make ends meet — with 56 million Americans struggling to pay off credit card debt for over a year

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/moving-wrong-direction-more-more-110000187.html

    Americans are continuing to pull out the plastic to cover their everyday purchases — but many have been struggling to meet off their monthly statements when the bills roll around.

    In fact, 49% of credit cardholders are carrying a balance from one month to the next as of November, according to a recent Bankrate survey. That’s up from 31% in 2021 and 47% in July of last year.

    What’s more, a whopping 58% — or 56 million — credit card users have been entrenched in debt for at least a year.

    Experts point to rising prices, which have exacerbated money struggles for many households, leading more consumers to rely on their credit cards to cover everyday expenses. According to the latest government data, America’s inflation rate ticked up 3.4% over the past year, fueled by higher housing and energy costs.

    “Inflation is making an existing trend worse,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman told CBS MoneyWatch.

    “We’ve been seeing this for a while, with more people carrying more debt for longer periods of time. It’s moving in the wrong direction.”

    With U.S. credit card debt surpassing the $1 trillion mark last year, more consumers are feeling the strain on their wallets.

    But while there have been reports of Americans spending big over the summer on things they enjoy, like travel, concerts and dining out, they aren’t necessarily racking up debt due to impulse purchases.

    Around 43% of those in debt are actually carrying a balance due to an unexpected or emergency expense, such as medical bills, car repairs or home repairs, according to Bankrate. This could also back a wider trend around the savings rate receding and more folks living paycheck to paycheck.

    Another survey from Forbes Advisor reveals more than 4 in 10 respondents have nothing left over from their paychecks after covering their expenses — and a stunning 77% report not having enough money in emergency savings to cover one month’s expenses.

    1. “…Around 43% of those in debt are actually carrying a balance due to an unexpected or emergency expense, ….. or home repairs, according to Bankrate….”

      Homes have to be repaired? My REIConplex agent told me that I was buying a money machine, not a money pit..

      Another example of holding costs.

  21. People might not be receptive to the protective efforts the One World Order is proposing to save us.
    Disease X WILL strike, but we don’t know what it is. SO we will gain of function a bunch of snarly pathegens in a lab, just in case such pathogens would evolve. And we will pre develope vaccines to be ready in 90 days. We want to save lives by preventive measures in creating disease. Disease X could kill 50 million, kill a third of Congress in US and render Government dysfunctional.
    Therefore it’s imperative we create Disease, so we can create a vaccine to prevent a panademic.
    While some feel that creating diseases that were not likely to evolve naturally is not recommended, the WHO/WEF is committed to saving lives by creating bio weapon diseases, so their vaccines will save the globe.
    Further, a zero co2 policy by 2050, is necessary to save planet from Climate Change. DONT listen to the misinformation Climate Scientist, that predict our solutions are suicide and genocide, and there is no Climate Change emergency. MISINFORMATION and free speech is the greatest threat to the GREAT Narratives , we must put asunder. All Global Citizens must unite and comply with
    Monopoly Corporation and Rich Entities and Banks to collectively save the world.

    1. Think about this: The ghouls in Davos want to reduce food production globally by 30%, because reasons. That would dovetail with a new super disease that would send 30% of the globe to an early grave.

  22. Top economist Steve Hanke says stocks will drop, a recession will hit, and inflation will sink below 2% this year
    Theron Mohamed
    Steve Hanke
    Jan 18, 2024, 4:08 AM PST

    – Steve Hanke expects stocks to falter, a recession to hit, and inflation to fall below 2% this year.

    – Stocks are trading at lofty valuations that will decrease as a downturn sets in, the economist says.

    – The shrinking US money supply will choke economic growth and curb the pace of price rises, he says.
    …
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/steve-hanke-stocks-economy-outlook-recession-inflation-forecast-fed-money-2024-1

    1. However Blackstone’s credit is not affected; they can borrow another few billion tomorrow because…well they are Blackstone.

      1. If you not only default, but strategically default on sh$tloads of debt like blackflop has already done, you can bet anyone asked to loan them money will look at that.

          1. I recall a rules change in the 2008 crash that let “non-banking entities” or some such term saddle up to the discount window. Is that still a thing?

  26. ‘The skyscraper has been losing value since 2014, when the mortgage was originated’

    Right at the tops boys, beautiful.

  27. ‘Unfortunately for them, the market doesn’t care how much you paid for it, or put into it, or how much money you need. It cares about how much it’s worth’

    That’s the spirit Scott, keep up the good work!

  28. ‘Build, buy, finance’ is its motto’

    The person who came up with this didn’t spend much time doing it.

  29. ‘We were born in the wrong era,’ said the 24-year-old graduate from China’s top Renmin University. ‘No one cares about their dreams and ambitions anymore in an economic downturn. The endless job-hunting is a torture’

    Communism always ends this way.

      1. As Ben links to the China adv vids every so often, China imports a lot of its food, because it can’t be trusted to grow safe food, and not much of their land is good for crops. They produce only 2/3rd of the food they need. Chinas Achilles heel in any war is a food blockade. Stop all foreign imports and the country is back to a small bowl of rice day for all residents.

    2. Zhang was hoping to start a career in state propaganda after more than 100 unsuccessful job applications in the media industry.

      Does that involve putting up posters with party slogans at bus stops?

  30. Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham Real Estate Update – Buyer’s Losing Big Money – (Jan 10, 2024)
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    19 minutes ago

    In this episode we take a look at the current Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices and market trends for week ending Jan 10, 2024. We discuss Buyer’s who are considering or have chosen to walk away from purchase agreements, often times leaving them exposed to potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars of liability down the road.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR_v41Bk1ZQ

    15:30.

  31. Corner update.

    Illegal Venezuelans now in Arapahoe County, first confirmed sighting, at the corner of Broadway and Dartmouth holding a sign that says “jobless migrant, please help.”

    3. “Jobless Migrant please help “

      I am Here in Malaysia on Vacation and haven’t seen one beggar on the street but I did have 2 people hit me up for money on local river walk. The begging is at every major intersection back home.

      1. Plenty of citrus, avocado and macadamia trees in the area. Our rental property has: grapefruit, orange, lemon, lime, guava and cherimoya trees; 3 varieties of avocado trees; and, 30+ macadamia trees. Sadly, most of it goes to waste or feeds the critters. We did have an organization come out once and harvest for donation but I think COVID and pest issues may have interrupted their operations.

      2. The house I’m eyeing up the hill on Orchard Gate has palm trees. I would replace those and somewhat restore the orchard vibe.

      3. On second glance, the driveway should have been concrete. When it gets hot that asphalt will become oily; yuck!

      1. That looks like a 60s vintage house with a wood paneling (western motif) upgrade, but it’s way too much, IMHO.

        2. Stone Canyon has the best lot and remodel potential. When it originally listed at $1,050,000, Hubby half-jokingly said we should buy it. He’s 50-50 on whether we’ll ever be able to buy a house here.

  35. In 1969 the Jets won the Super Bowl, the Mets win the World Series, the Manson Family committed the Tate–LaBianca murders, Apollo 11 astronaut Neil Armstrong became the first man to step on the Moon, I was 9 going on 10 and this was playing in my transistor radio.

    Wait A Million Years · The Grass Roots

    Leaving It All Behind

    Released on: 1969-11-01

    https://youtu.be/IH0Chi-WNq0?si=js7yHwkl6rJMMTSH

    Temptation Eyes · The Grass Roots

    Leaving It All Behind

    Released on: 1969-11-01

    https://youtu.be/cvgUZr4T62M?si=JsNr0o1tk_Iwribx

    1. Financial Times
      Chinese equities
      Chinese stock rout accelerates as foreign investors sell out
      Fall in Hong Kong and Chinese indices defies many Wall Street banks’ hopes of rebound after last year’s losses
      Investors sit in front of an electronic stock board at a securities brokerage in Shanghai, China,
      The Hang Seng China Enterprises index has dropped more than 10% so far this month, while mainland China’s CSI 300 has shed almost 6%
      Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong and Joe Leahy in Beijing yesterday

      A punishing sell-off for Chinese equities has worsened in recent days, as international investors who bet on a rebound lose faith that economic stimulus from Beijing is on the way.

      The Hang Seng China Enterprises index, a closely followed gauge of large Chinese listings in Hong Kong, has dropped about 11 per cent so far this month after losing 14 per cent last year. The benchmark CSI 300 index for domestically traded stocks has shed more than 5 per cent, after taking into account the renminbi’s depreciation against the dollar.

      The January downturn has confounded expectations from Wall Street banks including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that China’s stock market was primed for a recovery in 2024.

      International investors “just threw in the towel” after a speech by Premier Li Qiang at Davos on Tuesday lacked any hint of new government measures to boost the economy or financial markets, said the head of trading at one investment bank in Hong Kong.

      He added that institutional investors had been cautiously buying some large Chinese technology stocks such as Tencent and Alibaba during the first few days of the year, but “within three or four sessions they were already underwater, so they decided to dump that — and retail investors followed”.
      …

    1. JPMorgan CEO Vows to Never Talk About Bitcoin, Calls It Worthless
      By Newton Gitonga –
      January 18, 2024

      JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has clarified that he is done discussing Bitcoin and has labeled it worthless.

      In a Wednesday interview with CNBC ‘Squawk Box’ hosts on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the CEO expressed his frustration with the ongoing debate surrounding the cryptocurrency, stating, “This is the last time I’m talking about this on CNBC, so help me God.”

      Notably, Dimon acknowledged the potential of blockchain technology, emphasizing its role in moving money and data efficiently. However, he drew a clear distinction between cryptocurrencies with real-world applications, such as tokenizing assets and facilitating transactions like buying and selling real estate, and those he referred to as “home stones” or cryptocurrencies that do nothing.

      Dimon further reiterated his long-standing criticism of Bitcoin, categorizing it as worthless and citing concerns about money laundering, fraud, human trafficking, and tax evasion.

      “The Bitcoin, you know, there are use cases – fraud, anti-money laundering, tax avoidance, sex trafficking. Those are real use cases, and you see it being used for hundreds, maybe 50, $100 billion a year for that. That is the end use case; everything else is people trading among themselves,” stated Dimon.
      …
      https://zycrypto.com/jpmorgan-ceo-vows-to-never-talk-about-bitcoin-calls-it-worthless/

    3. Yahoo
      Benzinga
      Charlie Munger Was Disgusted By Cryptocurrency, Deeming It Immoral And Worthless: ‘It’s Like Somebody Else Is Trading Turds And You Decide, I Can’t Be Left Out’
      Jeannine Mancini
      December 13, 2023·4 min read
      In this article:

      The late Charlie Munger, esteemed vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., had a history of expressing strong opinions against cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. His views were notable for their intensity and the sharpness with which he delivered them.

      At Berkshire Hathaway’s 2018 annual meeting, Munger’s criticism of cryptocurrencies was forthright. He referred to the act of trading cryptocurrencies as “disgusting,” likening it to trading in turds, and suggested that it reflected poorly on civilization. He also used strong terms like “dementia” to describe the growing enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-disgusted-cryptocurrency-deeming-183817664.html

    4. Tech
      Heroes to zeroes in 12 months: How the two biggest crypto billionaire CEOs proved the critics right
      Published Sat, Dec 30 2023 11:36 AM EST
      Updated Sat, Dec 30 2023 11:55 AM EST
      MacKenzie Sigalos

      Key Points

      – After a brutal 18 months of bankruptcies, company failures and criminal trials, the crypto market is starting to claw back some of its former standing.

      – But even as prices swell, the sector’s reputation has struggled to regain ground after names virtually synonymous with bitcoin have both been found guilty of crimes directly related to their multibillion-dollar crypto empires.

      – FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao went from industry titans to convicted frauds in the span of 12 months.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/30/how-the-two-biggest-crypto-billionaire-ceos-proved-the-critics-right.html

      1. Were the takedowns of SBF and CZ coordinated hits by other crypto mob bosses to open the playing field for an influx of spot bitcoiin ETFs?

      1. Gary Gensler approved the ETFs — but now he’s striking back
        OPINION
        Own this piece of history as an NFT
        The Bitcoin spot ETF is the first investment product that will allow investors to get direct exposure to Bitcoin’s
        BTC
        tickers down
        $41,343

        It’s the first investment product linked to Bitcoin that the baby boomer generation is familiar with and can widely feel comfortable investing in.

        The approval came after a lengthy lawsuit led the D.C. Circuit Court to rule that the SEC had been hypocritical in approving Bitcoin futures ETFs but not spot ETFs. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler made clear his distaste in having to vote for the ETFs in a statement following the vote. (Most ETF approvals, even those that have consistently lost investor funds since approval, have not been accompanied by a statement from the chairman, much less one that recommended against investing in it).

        This was the first time an SEC chairman ever approved an ETF, and by way of the approval made a speech advising people against buying the ETF. That’s inconsistent with the SEC’s disclosure-centric mission.

        Has the Bitcoin community won? Did we really beat Gary? Not so fast. Permit a Star Wars analogy. We are in the second movie, Empire Strikes Back. Hope for the Bitcoin revolution in money and as a store of value is not lost, but Gensler is building a second Death Star as we speak.

        Related: Will Bitcoin keep dropping because of the ETFs?
        …
        https://cointelegraph.com/news/gary-gensler-approved-bitcoin-etfs-but-striking-back

Comments are closed.