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Homeowners Who Needed To Sell Softened Their Stance As Many Properties Languished

A report from the Arizona Republic. “Metro Phoenix’s housing market ended 2023 better than 2022, when there was an abrupt slowdown due to rising interest rates. But last year was still a slow one for home sales after the frenzy of 2021. For all of 2023, home sales were down 14% from 2022 and 32.3% lower than 2021’s frenzied pace. Only 2007 and 2008 were slower, and those years were the start of the housing crash and Great Recession. Ibuyers, including Opendoor and Offerpad, and Wall Street-based investors snapped up metro Phoenix homes during 2021 and early 2022, driving up prices. But those investors began losing money when the market started to cool abruptly in mid-2022. Veteran housing analyst Tom Ruff with the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services’ Information Market said investors’ ‘lack of logic and restraint in 2021 led to billions of dollars in losses in 2023.'”

The Palm Beach Post in Florida. “Sales of Palm Beach County single-family homes slumped in 2023 as wary buyers faced higher interest rates and rising insurance costs, but a lack of choices also spiked prices to a median of $597,000. Sale prices peaked in June at a record median of $625,000. The number of closed sales last year sagged to 13,868, which was down 8% from 2022, and about a whopping 23% lower than 2020. There were 4,575 existing homes for sale in December in Palm Beach County. That’s up 13% from the same time in 2022. The months supply of inventory was at 4 months, up 25% from December 2022.”

“‘It was such a strong sellers market for so long and now it’s shifted some,’ said Realtor Sabra Kirkpatrick. ‘Buyers can negotiate again whereas there were a couple years when they had to pay over the asking price, or the price was the price and that was it.'”

The Easy Reader in California. “Manhattan Beach home sales sharply declined in 2023, dropping from 322 sales in 2022 to 253 last year, while median sale price also dropped from $3.1 to $2.8 million. The decrease in sales, based on sales data reported to the Multiple Listing Service database, continues a precipitous two-year drop from 518 sales in 2022 and represented a 37 percent decline from the average of 393 sales per year since the beginning of the Great Recession in 2008. Last year’s sales were lower than the lowest year of the recession, 2008, in which 316 homes sold.”

“Realtor Richard Haynes, who publishes a blog that analyzes the entire South Bay market, found that Manhattan Beach was not alone in seeing declines in overall home sales. His analysis showed that all three Beach Cities and every town on the Palos Verdes Peninsula except one — the gated community of Rolling Hills — experienced sales declines in 2023. While Manhattan Beach’s home sales were down 21.4%, Hermosa Beach’s were down 25.3% and Redondo Beach 14.7%. In PV, Palos Verdes Estates was down 11.7%, Rancho Palos Verdes 22.4%, and Rolling Hills estates 33.6%.”

“Haynes likewise found median price declines in most of the cities he analyzed. Manhattan Beach’s 10.7% was the biggest decline, followed by an 8.4% decline in Palos Verdes Estates (from $2.8 million to $2.565,500 million), 4.3 percent in Rancho Palos Verdes ($1.75 million down to $1.675 million), and Redondo Beach down 3.3% (from $1,450,000 million to $1,402,500 million).”

The San Francisco Examiner in California. “Winter has settled upon downtown San Francisco. Office vacancies in The City’s business core started the year at a record 35.6%, according to real-estate firm CBRE. That is roughly equivalent to 22.5 Salesforce Towers — and experts expect the empty space to grow. Connor Kidd, CEO of The Swig Company in San Francisco,, together with SKS Partners, bought the 22-story building at 350 California Street in August for $61.1 million, or $205 per square foot — a remarkable deal given that replacement costs for such buildings can easily exceed $1,000 per square foot, according to an analyst with the real estate company JLL.”

“After three straight years of ‘negative net absorption,’ meaning more space was available for rent at the end of the year than at the beginning, reaching 13.5 million square feet, for a four-year combined total of almost 22.8 million square feet, according to CoStar. By comparison, the total amount from 2008 to 2010 during the Great Recession was just under 5.2 million square feet, and though the total was 9.8 million in 2001 after the dot-com crash, that lasted only one year, CoStar data show.”

“Among the hardest-hit areas was San Francisco, which lost $31.3 billion in value, behind Palo Alto-Sunnyvale at $33.9 billion, said the study, conducted by researchers from NYU Stern School of Business, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Columbia Business School. Fitch Ratings, noting that U.S. office availability was at an all-time high, issued a note the same month warning about rising delinquencies in office commercial-mortgage-backed security loans. The agency highlighted San Francisco’s central business district for having recent office-building sale prices 66 percent below a 2020 peak.”

“‘We expect a lot of office space to be turned into something else, especially because there’s no demand for it, so it’s a very long-term process to turn this around,’ said Nigel Hughes, senior director of market analytics at CoStar.”

From Baptist News. “The Georgia Baptist Mission Board, once the largest Southern Baptist state convention east of the Mississippi River, has sold its headquarters building for half its original $42.3 million cost. The state convention announced the sale on Jan. 4 without disclosing the 50% loss of equity. The sale coincides with the downsizing of the ministry that began in 2019 and has resulted in nearly 75% reduction of staff and scaled-back ministries. The building, which housed nearly 300 staff at its 2006 dedication, only housed about 30 a year ago. The one-two punch of a failed massive expansion of the property across the street and the national COVID shutdown collapsed the demand for the office real estate market.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Patrick Rocca, Toronto-based broker with Bosley Real Estate, says some shrewd buyers submitted offers towards the end of the fall market, when prices had weakened and pessimism pervaded the market. ‘The prices were off – there’s no doubt about it.’ According to Mr. Rocca, some buyers gauged that December might turn out to be the market’s low point before a possible rally if interest rates drop. Meanwhile, homeowners who needed to sell softened their stance after holding firm in the fall as many properties languished. ‘Sellers in November thought they were still in April,’ he says.”

“Mr. Rocca says the fall was a nerve-wracking time as deals fell apart. Some buyers failed to lock down the financing they needed to close the purchase, or last-minute appraisals came in below the sale price. Lenders have become much more stringent, he adds. He advises listing agents to avoid dealing with flimsy offers. They should also ensure that buyers attach a hefty deposit so they won’t be tempted to walk away from a deal. While agreements of purchase and sale are legally binding documents, Mr. Rocca says buyers who get cold feet may look for an escape. ‘If there’s an out, a buyer can find it.'”

The Telegraph. “From bankrupt to billionaire to bankrupt again, all in the space of seven years. Robert Bull, the bungalow tycoon nicknamed ‘Bob the Builder,’ is being chased by creditors just nine months after being crowned as one of Britain’s richest men with an estimated fortune of £1.9bn. Now, his holiday park empire is being broken up bit by bit, as those who lent Bull money seek to reclaim more than £725m in debts. Last week, 35 of Bull’s bungalow sites – owned by Royale Life, one of his many corporate entities – were vacuumed up by rival property developer, Ambassador Regency Group.”

“While the sale may have ended months of uncertainty for affected residents, there is no doubt that more deals will be needed to settle debts. Bull was declared bankrupt by a county court in Southampton last month. Creditors and residents of Bull’s properties alike now face a nervous wait to find out their fate. As ballooning debts have toppled Bull’s empire, homeowners have been left without basic services. The drastic drop in wealth has raised questions among people close to the administration, some of whom are asking where all the money went.”

“‘He managed to convince a lot of lenders, and serious ones at that, to provide funds to support him,’ says a City source. ‘Some of his businesses were operationally positive, it’s not as if they were burning cash. This then begs the question, where did the cash go? It is not as if lenders have called in debts for no good reason.'”

South China Morning Post. “The Chinese developer boom that kicked off in the Australian and New Zealand housing markets a decade ago has ended. But, unlike other foreign developers before them, their time has closed with a slow fizzle rather than a stampede exit. Amid a property crisis in China triggered by Beijing’s policies to curb risky borrowing, softer demand for flats in the region, and challenging business conditions such as rising construction costs, many Chinese developers have scaled back operations or closed shop. The way these developers ended their time in the Australasian markets has been largely driven by their ownership and how much their funders have been affected by China’s property crisis.”

“State-owned developers like Greenland Group and China Poly Group have been actively closing down their Australian operations as their parent companies claw back capital. Subsidiaries of publicly-listed Chinese developers such as Country Garden, China Aoyuan and Chiwayland have also relinquished their interests as some of them struggle with debt repayment in the face of poor sales and weak cash flow. Chinese developers have been compared to the rush of Japanese investors on the Gold Coast in Australia in the 1980s, who left abruptly when the Japanese economy’s asset bubble burst. State-owned developers such as Greenland and Poly are among those which have made the clearest ‘exits’ from the Australian market as they actively sell landholdings and downsize.”

From AFP. “China’s economy last year grew at one of its slowest rates in more than three decades, official figures showed Wednesday, as it was battered by a crippling property crisis, sluggish consumption and global turmoil. Financial woes at major firms such as Evergrande and Country Garden are now fuelling buyer mistrust against a backdrop of unfinished housing developments and falling prices. Property was for years seen by many Chinese as a safe place to park savings, but price drops have hit their wallets hard and Beijing’s support measures for the sector have so far had little effect.”

“‘What China saw last year was possibly the most disappointing post-Covid recovery imaginable,’ Shehzad Qazi, managing director of China Beige Book, a consultancy firm that tracks the Chinese economy, told AFP. ‘The economy limped to calendar’s end,’ he said.”

This Post Has 132 Comments
  1. ‘said investors’ ‘lack of logic and restraint in 2021 led to billions of dollars in losses in 2023’

    But Tom will look at you with a straight face and say prices are up.

  2. ‘bought the 22-story building at 350 California Street in August for $61.1 million, or $205 per square foot — a remarkable deal given that replacement costs for such buildings can easily exceed $1,000 per square foot’

    ‘“Among the hardest-hit areas was San Francisco, which lost $31.3 billion in value, behind Palo Alto-Sunnyvale at $33.9 billion, said the study’

    Is that a lot?

    ‘‘We expect a lot of office space to be turned into something else, especially because there’s no demand for it, so it’s a very long-term process to turn this around’

    I know Nigel, bum housing! With a landfill for bum poop and used needles. Mixed use! Tourist love that kind of thing.

  3. ‘From bankrupt to billionaire to bankrupt again, all in the space of seven years. Robert Bull, the bungalow tycoon nicknamed ‘Bob the Builder,’ is being chased by creditors just nine months after being crowned as one of Britain’s richest men with an estimated fortune of £1.9bn’

    From the article:

    ‘In the past year, Bull was not shy about flaunting his apparent wealth. He was pictured with a fleet of sports cars in front of a vast mansion – one that includes a 100ft kitchen, a three-lane ten-pin bowling alley and six double garages. “I’ve got some nice watches and I love cars and travel,” he told The Times last year. “I’m grateful, but I don’t flash it about.”

    ‘Despite his growing financial woes, Bull will no doubt take solace from the faith placed in him by partner Sara last year. She told the Times: “I’ve said to him, ‘What’s the worst that can happen? You lose everything, f*** it. You’ll still have me, we’ll start again.”

    I wouldn’t expect Sara to be around long Bob. She looks high maintenance.

    1. “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

      — Warren Buffett

  4. Veteran housing analyst Tom Ruff with the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services’ Information Market said investors’ ‘lack of logic and restraint in 2021 led to billions of dollars in losses in 2023.’”

    Die, speculator scum.

  5. While agreements of purchase and sale are legally binding documents, Mr. Rocca says buyers who get cold feet may look for an escape.

    FOMO turning to FOGS (Fear of Getting Schlonged) doesn’t bode well for Always Be Closing.

    1. Fear of Getting Schlonged

      I’m seeing a different dynamic in my neighborhood — the beginning of the silver tsunami. We’ve got 3+ homes for sale in original condition. Even though the initial asking prices are ridiculous given the conditions of the homes and the current insurance costs, the sellers have more flexibility than your average seller to reduce prices and still make quite a lot of money.

        1. How attractive is a $2M house in need of a massive remodel and a teeny-tiny yard when you’re paying an exorbitant price, property taxes and insurance premiums while this house languishes on the market at $2.269M?

  6. DENVER – When elementary school teacher Kristine Wussow began hearing about migrants being bused to her city by Texas with no support, she rushed to collect donations.

    On a recent day in January, Wussow, 50, and other volunteers handed out clothing, cookies and homemade baked ziti to Venezuelan migrants staying at a hotel-turned-shelter on the city’s east side.

    Her heart broke, she said, seeing families living in tents in the cold. But she also worried whether the local generosity would dry up.

    “When I reached out to my neighborhood, people poured out help. But if these folks were living in our actual neighborhood? I can see how that would be different,” she said. “One woman who lives here in this neighborhood, she told us her neighbors are angry. They don’t want to help.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/texas-gov-transforms-immigration-from-a-border-issue-to-a-backyard-one-dems-aren-t-happy/ar-BB1h1m6h

    1. From the article:

      “In Denver, where officials say they’ve received 2.5 times the number of migrants per capita overall than any other receiving city, the mayor projects spending 10% of the entire annual budget aiding migrants this year.”

      The squeegee crews and whole families begging on corners is out of control, I can’t leave the house and drive five minutes in any direction without seeing it EVERY DAY now.

      “Work permits” aren’t going to change anything because they will still be a net economic drain on taxpayers.

      1. From the Denver Post (1/16/2024), link may or may not work depending on your browser:

        “In 2023, Denver Health provided about $136 million in care that it didn’t receive compensation for, CEO Donna Lynne told the Denver City Council’s finance and government committee last week. That figure includes care to people covered by Medicaid when the rates the program paid didn’t cover the full costs, she said. About $100 million of that went to people living in Denver.

        “What I think is not being said is that Denver Health is at a critical, critical point, and that we need to take this up in 2024,” she said. “Because our costs exceed our revenues, we are turning down patients every day, particularly in the area of mental health and substance abuse.”

        Denver Health’s financial challenges aren’t over. In the last year, 8,000 migrants who came to Denver from Central America made about 20,000 visits to the health system, for needs including dental emergencies, mental health counseling and childbirth, Lynne said. The state and federal governments aren’t reimbursing the cost of those visits, which runs into the millions, she said.

        “While I have tremendous compassion for what’s going on, it’s heartbreaking, it’s going to break Denver Health,” she said.

        https://www.denverpost.com/2024/01/16/denver-health-finances-budget-migrants-mental-health/

        1. “While I have tremendous compassion for what’s going on, it’s heartbreaking, it’s going to break Denver Health,” she said.

          That is what a Doom Loop looks like.

          1. Cloward-Piven strategy at work. Unsurprisingly, Piven was the daughter of Russian Jewish immigrants.

          2. San Diego is alleged to be the most secure section of the border. This dude drives right to the fence in Jacumba to see for himself. He drives right up to where they are coming in and he interviews an invader from china as the flood continues around him. It is eye opening and worth watching. Texas gets all of the hype but it is happening all along the southern border and our other borders as well.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FJAsG38_rY

        2. in the last year, 8,000 migrants who came to Denver from Central America made about 20,000 visits to the health system,

          How is that is that humanly possible. That is 2.5 emergencies per year per person. That is just flat our insane.

          1. They go to the ER for a sore throat or the sniffles. Remember, if they try to see a doctor in a practice, they have to cough up $120+ upfront to see the doctor. Via “word of mouth” they have already learned that the ER will receive them regardless of ability to pay.

          2. Also, I suspect the the true number of invaders living in Dumver is much higher than what is being reported.

          3. healthcare workers who received an Ebola vaccine

            I saw that! IIRC, the vaccines were administered back in November.

  7. SAN LUIS VALLEY— On Jan. 18, County Commissioners in Rio Grande County and Alamosa County met separately to address a possible influx of migrants to the Valley from other countries. At this point, there have not been any arrivals of migrants, and various county officials stressed they are only making plans to be prepared in the event of any migrant arrivals.

    In December of last year, the small mountain community of Carbondale was suddenly impacted by the arrival of over 120 migrants, mostly from Venezuela. This event raised concerns that other rural Colorado communities may see the arrival of new migrant residents. Carbondale has requested $224,000 in emergency state funds to help with the influx.

    In Rio Grande County, Commissioners passed a resolution, “Opposing Support for Illegal Immigration and Undocumented Persons.” The resolution reads in part, “That Rio Grande County is not a sanctuary county and will not open shelters or provide services to undocumented persons and or illegal immigrants that may be in the San Luis Valley and in Rio Grande County. Rio Grande County will continue to place the needs of our local citizens first above requests for emergency or long-term assistance from non-citizens. The Rio Grande County Board of County Commissioners calls upon the United States Congress to immediately restore the rule of law along the Southwest Border by enforcing the existing laws and rapidly creating a system to allow reasonable vetting of migrants who may enter the United States legally and become productive members of this country.”

    In an interview with the Valley Courier, Rio Grande Commissioner Tyler Ratzlaff said, “There are illegal immigrants being shipped around, Denver has a bunch and Carbondale got some and we wanted to be ahead of it if they wanted to send them our way.”

    Ratzlaff said that there had not been an influx of migrants. “We’re just trying to be ahead of it. We just feel we don’t have the resources to help and every dollar we spend for illegal aliens we don’t have to spend for our own citizens…we are just not set up to house illegal aliens.” If migrants do arrive in the county, Ratzlaff said, “We have the funds to help them travel elsewhere.”

    https://alamosanews.com/article/san-luis-valley-governments-take-precautions-for-any-migrant-arrivals

    1. I’m sure that “word of mouth” that there are no gibs or free cheese in Rio Grande county will quickly make the rounds in the invader “community” and they will go elsewhere.

  8. The Boston Globe
    A pandemic mea culpa from Francis Collins

    It comes three years too late. But Francis Collins, the former head of the National Institutes of Health, has finally admitted that the COVID-19 lockdowns caused a massive amount of harm — harm to which he and other government public-health experts, such as Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, were oblivious because they were obsessed with doing things their way.

    The mea culpa came last summer during a conversation hosted by Braver Angels, an organization that promotes dialogue among Americans with sharply different ideologies and political loyalties. Collins, who as NIH director played a central role in shaping Washington’s response to COVID-19, was paired with Wilk Wilkinson, a Minnesota trucking manager and podcast host who strongly opposed how government officials addressed the pandemic. The 90-minute exchange, moderated by Boston College professor Martha Bayles, was recorded six months ago but only recently attracted attention when excerpts were posted on social media.

    The whole conversation was interesting, but one segment in particular was jaw-dropping. Collins described with remarkable candor just how narrow-minded, how willfully myopic, he and other high-level public health officials had been as they dealt with the crisis.

    “As a guy living inside the Beltway, feeling the sense of crisis, trying to decide what to do in some situation room in the White House with people who had data that was incomplete, we weren’t really thinking about what that would mean to Wilk and his family in Minnesota a thousand miles away from where the virus was hitting so hard,” confessed Collins, who retired from the NIH at the end of 2021. “We weren’t really considering the consequences in communities that were not New York City or some other big city.”

    That was a stunning admission. What he said next was even more scandalous.

    “If you’re a public health person and you’re trying to make a decision, you have this very narrow view of what the right decision is, and that is something that will save a life. Doesn’t matter what else happens. So you attach infinite value to stopping the disease and saving a life. You attach zero value to whether this actually totally disrupts people’s lives, ruins the economy, and has many kids kept out of school in a way that they never recover from.”

    “Collateral damage,” said Wilkinson.

    “Collateral damage,” Collins agreed. He and his colleagues were locked in what he now concedes was the “public health mindset” — a monomaniacal approach that blinded them to the injuries they were causing. “A lot of us had that mindset, and that was really unfortunate.”

    Was it ever.

    As early as March 2020, Fauci recommended a nationwide lockdown and called for a “dramatic diminution of the personal interaction” in daily activities. He warned that “life is not going to be the way it used to be in the United States,” while insisting that was “best for the American public.” Collins said at the time that the only correct approach was “one that most people would find to be too drastic because otherwise it is not drastic enough.”

    Now, of course, it is far too late to mitigate any of the pain endured by millions of Americans hurt by the government’s high-handed edicts and recommendations. Those curbs and controls began with the declaration of a federal emergency and travel ban, which in turn spurred many states to order their own restrictions.

    The coast-to-coast lockdown destroyed tens of millions of jobs and at least 200,000 small businesses. It exacerbated numerous social ills, worsened mental illness, and took a deadly toll in missed cancer diagnoses and untreated heart disease. The prolonged school closures inflicted unprecedented damage on children. The social distancing and mask mandates were enforced with a ruthlessness that at times turned despotic. And countless men and women — from ordinary citizens to noted epidemiologists to elected state officials — found themselves demonized, censored, or shunned for challenging those who attached “zero value” to their concerns.

    All this damage was caused not by the pandemic but by politicians who abdicated their judgment and left it to public-health experts. Whether out of panic, pigheadedness, or perversity, they declined to balance costs against benefits, a basic function of policymaking. Instead, they insisted they would “follow the science” — as though scientists were endowed with an infallible road map to navigate COVID’s complex interplay of disease, economics, education, psychology, and politics in a nation of 330 million people.

    The great economist and social historian Thomas Sowell has often observed that “there are no solutions, there are only tradeoffs.” That is a fundamental reality in all policymaking. There are pros and cons to everything government does. For officials responding to the pandemic, there can hardly have been a more shocking intellectual failure than the one to which Collins now confesses: attaching “infinite value” to stopping the disease and no value at all to everything else.

    The same sort of thinking can be a pitfall in many other areas. Focus on reducing fossil fuel use at any price, for example, and the results will be stunted economic growth and continued misery for many of the world’s poorest people. Assign maximum importance to achieving racial diversity in student admissions and the result is affirmative action preferences so lopsided that they violate the Constitution. Allow the prevention of another 9/11 to override every other consideration, and the CIA ends up torturing prisoners in secret “black sites” beyond the reach of law.

    From crime to homelessness to addiction to national defense, there are always costs to be weighed against benefits. And if acknowledging tradeoffs is indispensable to the work of government, it is especially so at times of crisis.

    Toward the end of the Braver Angels conversation, Collins acknowledged another way in which he and many of his inside-the-Beltway colleagues blundered.

    It was folly, he said, to think that Washington knew what was best for the whole nation. “The fact that we could put blanket recommendations across this incredible wide, broad, and diverse country and expect them to be right . . . obviously could not have been correct. And yet that’s what was done.”

    COVID-19 would have been a terrible destroyer in any case. But it was made all the more catastrophic by the failure of politicians and experts who not only were sure they knew best but were unwilling even to consider other views. Americans’ respect for public-health experts took a beating during the pandemic, and it is a black mark on Collins’s legacy that he was so complacent about the harm the government’s policies caused. For belatedly admitting where he went wrong, he certainly deserves credit. Let him continue to speak out, to warn other scientists against falling into the same trap, and he’ll deserve a lot more.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-pandemic-mea-culpa-from-francis-collins/ar-BB1h18DK

    1. ^ +1 on all of this, and actually surprised that the MSN website even re-shared the article, considering its content.

      1. “Science” is things we know. He admits he knew nothing

        Science is not what we know. Science is testing to find out if what we “think” is correct. Science is also open discussion and dialog which was one of the “mistakes” (in my opinion the biggest) of the whole thing. It was an experimental shot which means no one knows what exactly will happen which is why open discussion should have been the key focus not the dogma we got. People with PHD’s and MD’s being shut down for misinformation by gender studies major at the Governments request. Disgusting

        1. Science is not what we know

          It is literally the meaning of the word. I believe you are talking about the scientific process (to gain knowledge) and I agree with you.

          “Follow the science” meant do what you’re told and shut up.

      2. But he is an “expert” and whatever he and others like him pull out of their @sses is “Science” and we must bow reverently and accept their pronouncements as the truth.

    2. I expected these creep shills to say something like Collins is saying.
      “We were just trying to save lives,” “We just wanted to stop the disease.”
      The evidence shows there was no Global Panademic.
      They didn’t save 14 million lives, as their bogus models
      project they did. They killed 20 million and still counting with even more injured.
      This was homicidal negelence, Mal practice on a epic scale, and fraud.
      This was a fraudulent scheme to disperse fake killer vaccines , while suppressing and obstructing viable cures . This was mass fake testing. This was fraud on death certificates. This was bribery, extortion, and threat of job loss if you didn’t comply. This was censoring credible Doctors and Scientists who disputed the lockdowns, masks, and unsafe expiermental vaccine.
      “TRUST THE SCIENCE” was the biggest pre planned frauds of all times probably.
      Sure we made some mistakes, but we had good intent, doesn’t hold water.
      Goverment Health Agency and Global World Health Organization committed mass first degree murder, and a widespread harm to humanity. IT requires accountability , with all co_ conspirators brought to Justice for these crimes.
      As they try to conjure up fear over Disease X, a potential disease that they create, and vaccines ready to disperse in 100 days , with no trials at all, they are going to double down on their warfare.
      Add to that Climate Change Doomsday fraud, with solutions that are genocide/denocide.

      1. ‘the biggest pre planned frauds of all times’

        Absolutely. It didn’t happen as he said. They planned the whole thing in advance and even video taped it in 2019. I’ve seen it and a bunch of you have too. We’re not doing that again evah! What we are going to do is publicly execute every one of these murdering bashtards.

        1. They planned the whole thing in advance

          Much like they are already planning “Disease X”, which they tell us will be 20 times deadlier than Covid, even though they can’t seem to tell us what Disease X is supposed to be, probably because they haven’t selected the actual virus they are going to thrust upon us.

          1. Much like they

            I agree with the growing number who say their time is up. Benefit of the doubt is spent.

    1. a globally coordinated system of carbon taxes

      Globally? Good luck with that. Maybe the US and its vassal satraps will play that game. China, India, Russia, Iran, etc.? The Magic 8 Ball says No.

  9. Marlow: The Corporate Media and Big Tech Interfered in the 2020 Election, and ‘Breaking the News’ Provides Undeniable Proof

    ALEXANDER MARLOW
    21 Jan 2024

    Before a single vote was cast, the 2020 election was baked into the cake. America’s political and media establishment were not going to let what happened to them in 2016 happen again.

    Don’t take my word for it. TIME Magazine published an article in February of 2021 called “The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election” which describes a vast effort by a network of partisan political operatives, union leaders, and business titans to create a mail ballot “revolution” to oust Trump.

    This is, quite literally, a plan hatched by a highly motivated and well-funded few to undermine American democracy as we know it.

    https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2024/01/21/marlow-the-corporate-media-and-big-tech-interfered-in-the-2020-election-and-breaking-the-news-provides-undeniable-proof/

      1. It would have been poetic had the heckler collapsed in the stands, much as a long time journalist critic of Djoko just died of suddenly.

        Half of the jabbed could drop dead and the vax believers faith would not be shaken.

  10. Is home ownership such a sure path to riches in America that it even makes sense for renters to invest their spare change in second homes?

    1. Success Real estate
      Meet the housing market ‘hackers’ who do not live in their homes: These people bought run-down cabins, moved into their sheds and slept in their basements to rake in extra cash
      “I never wanted to lose my job but I knew I had a backup, and that gave me a sense of freedom that I couldn’t put a value on.”
      BY Eleanor Pringle
      January 21, 2024 4:30 AM EST
      An illustration of a woman with a credit card pushing a cart with a house in it.
      Can’t afford property in your area? People are increasingly choosing to think outside the box and buy unusual properties out of state. Getty Images

      Across America there’s a growing trend: people own homes, they just don’t live in them. Instead, tenants renting in expensive areas are buying cheaper properties as holiday homes, retirement nest eggs, or to bring in some extra cash.

      The individuals Fortune spoke to said the choice to buy a house which isn’t their primary residence was pretty simple: they had a pot of savings and didn’t want to miss out on the returns promised by the housing sector.

      After all, while the S&P500 tends to have an average return rate of around 10% a year, property comes with an average value increase of 5.4% annually and might have the added boon of rental or holiday letting income.

      So individuals are choosing to bury their cash in property, even if they don’t have the benefit of that roof over their head.

      https://fortune.com/2024/01/21/housing-market-hacks-cabins-basements-sheds-property-ladder

      1. Somehow I have the feeling that this is yet another “real estate is the sure road to riches” story that is destined for a sad ending.

      2. “Can’t afford property in your area? People are increasingly choosing to think outside the box and buy unusual properties out of state.”

        This explains how insanely high California real estate prices contagiously infect other markets from coast to coast.

      3. property comes with an average value increase of 5.4% annually

        What a joke Miss Pringle. Take away some taxes and maintenance and the “value” increase is wiped out. What you’ve got is falling prices and inflation.

        1. In some good news, we in my little burg voted to remove city sales tax (about 3.5%) from groceries last November and the change went into effect Jan 1st. I’m sure the fine folks at city hall are still apoplectic over this as they can’t raise any other tax without voter approval to cover the loss.

          I haven’t heard about how they will cover the lost revenue. I suppose that they could charge us more for city services like trash collection, sewers, water, etc. Since those are “fees” that are not subject to TABOR restrictions though the public utilities commission might have something to say about that.

  11. MINISTRY OF TRUTH

    WSJ Editor-in-Chief Tells Davos Elites ‘We No Longer Own The News’

    “We were the gatekeepers, and we very much owned the facts as well”

    https://modernity.news/2024/01/19/wsj-editor-in-chief-tells-davos-elites-we-no-longer-own-the-news/

    During a discussion titled ‘Defending Truth,’ The editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal admitted to Davos elites that the legacy media no longer ‘own the facts’ and people are much more likely to question what they report as truth.

    Emma Tucker told a crowd at the World Economic Forum, “I think there’s a very specific challenge for the legacy brands, like the New York Times and like the Wall Street Journal.”

    She continued, “If you go back really not that long ago, as I say, we owned the news. We were the gatekeepers, and we very much owned the facts as well.”

    “If it said it in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, then that was a fact,” Tucker further stated, adding “Nowadays, people can go to all sorts of different sources for the news and they’re much more questioning about what we’re saying.”

    During the same discussion, Věra Jourová, Vice-President of the European Commission, complained about the rise of ‘disinformation’ being a “security threat,” noting “It was part of the Russian military doctrine that they will start information war, and we are in it now.”

    “Disinformation is a very powerful tool,” Jourová continued, adding that “In the EU we are focusing on improving of the system where the people will get the facts right. We don’t speak about opinions. We are not correcting anyone’s opinions or language. This is about the facts.”

    As we highlighted earlier in the week, Jourová has spent her Davos time meeting the heads of the likes of YouTube and Meta and ensuring they “play by the rules,” while her boss, Ursula von der Leyen called for overarching globalist control over the flow of all information in the digital age.

    1. “complained about the rise of ‘disinformation’ being a “security threat”

      That term is such a joke.

      And the opinions of anyone who uses that term while taking themselves seriously can be summarily dismissed as propaganda and lies.

      1. such a joke

        A serious one as well. There is a certain segment of our society that reliably calls things the opposite of what they are. Makes it easy to understand what they mean.

  12. Now that a soft landing is underway, are you backing up the truck to load on as many stocks as your leverage limits will allow?

    1. Yahoo
      Business Insider
      The S&P 500 is in a historic bubble and could crash by 63%, markets guru John Hussman warns
      Theron Mohamed
      October 17, 2023·3 min read
      John Hussman.
      YouTube / John Mauldin

      – Stocks are in a historic bubble and could crash by over 60%, John Hussman says.

      – The markets guru says the S&P 500 looks very expensive and is priced to yield negative returns.

      – Hussman agrees with another bubble expert, Jeremy Grantham, that a US recession appears likely.

      Stocks are massively overpriced and could crash by over 60%, John Hussman has warned.

      “Market valuations stand at one of the three great bubble extremes in US history,” rivaling the peaks of 1929 and 2000, the veteran investor and financial historian said in his latest research note. Those two previous periods of reckless speculation ended disastrously, and the current bubble is likely to unwind in similar fashion, he added.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-historic-bubble-could-192029487.html

    2. Dow Jones +1.05%
      Nasdaq +1.95%
      S&P 500 +1.23%

      Markets
      A 28-year market vet breaks down why the risk of a recession is ‘higher than thought’ — and warns 73 years of market history shows stocks are likely in for a terrible year
      William Edwards
      Jan 20, 2024, 2:01 AM PST
      REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

      The US labor market is starting to show signs of weakness, and a recession could be closer than the market consensus has been pricing in, says RIA Advisors CIO Lance Roberts.

      https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-sp500-outlook-recession-coming-unemployment-rate-roberts-2024-1

    3. Economy
      The inventor of the market’s most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024
      Phil Rosen
      Jan 20, 2024, 9:17 AM PST
      Campbell Harvey
      Screengrab/YouTube

      – An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969.

      – The inventor of the famed indicator said it is accurately predicting a downturn this year.

      – When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal.

      Wall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year.

      Campbell Harvey is a Canadian economist and researcher at Duke University whose work showed that, for decades, an inverted yield curve — that is, when short-term Treasury yields exceed the yield on longer-term government bonds — has preceded as US recession.

      Dating back to 1968, the indicator’s predictive power is eight for eight, with zero false signals. Harvey told host Jack Farley on the Forward Guidance podcast Thursday that given that yields inverted in the fall of 2022, this suggests a recession will happen in the first or second quarter of this year.

      He had predicted previously that the indicator may turn out to be wrong this time, given the strength in the labor market and other positive economic data. However, he’s reversed that outlook.

      “I had some credibility in saying ‘my model could be wrong’ because it’s my model,” Harvey said. “Essentially I was saying it might be possible to dodge a recession, but this was really contingent on the Fed standing down — and this is one year ago — so standing down and not hiking rates any further. And that is not what happened.”

      The Federal Reserve hiked rates 11 times in the 2022-2023 cycle, spiking its benchmark rate from near 0% to a range of 5.25%-5.50%.

      “As a result, I’ve kind of revised my opinion,” he continued. “Given the circumstances, I think it is likely we do see much slower growth in 2024.”

      He said the inverted yield curve, in one sense, is a self-fulfilling prophecy as it signals to companies and investors that a slowdown is looming, which then alters spending and business behavior and ultimately leads to less activity.

      “It makes the yield curve causal,” Harvey said. “This causality channel is much different than in the past.”

      And the inversion itself also isn’t the final call on a recession, as experts have noted that it is actually when the curve de-inverts and long-term yields again exceed those of short-term bonds that signals a downturn has arrived.

      https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-inverted-yield-curve-inventor-financial-markets-investors-2024-1

      1. San Diego County unemployment climbs slightly to 4.3%
        The construction industry saw an above-average December job addition — a gain of 1,800 — to reach its highest employment level in more than fifteen years.
        Published January 19, 2024 • Updated on January 19, 2024 at 3:04 pm
        San-Diego skyline
        SkyRanger 7

        The unemployment rate in San Diego County increased to 4.3% in December, up from a revised 4.2% in November and above the year-ago estimate of 3%, according to figures released Friday by the state Employment Development Department.

        Last month’s rate compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 5.1% for California…

        https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/san-diego-county-unemployment-climbs-slightly-to-4-3/3409902/

      2. Courthouse News Service
        California unemployment rises again to 5.1%
        The latest unemployment numbers come about a week after Governor Gavin Newsom revealed his fiscal year 2024-25 budget.
        Alan Riquelmy / January 19, 2024
        The California Employment Development Department in downtown Sacramento, Calif. (Alan Riquelmy/Courthouse News)

        SACRAMENTO, Calif. (CN) — California ended 2023 with an unemployment rate of 5.1% — a 1% increase from a year ago.

        The unemployment rate has been slowly rising over the past few months. It rose 0.1% from September to October, and by the same amount from October to November. It grew by 0.2% from November to December, according to a Friday announcement by the state’s Employment Development Department.

        There were 983,000 unemployed Californians in December — a rise of 29,200 from the previous month and an increase of 192,700 from December 2022.

        During a sample week in December, 376,872 people certified for unemployment benefits. That’s compared to 323,975 people in November and 326,252 people in December 2022.

        The state processed 48,550 initial claims during the December sample week — an increase of 10,956 claims from November and an increase of 7,000 from December 2022.

        The county with the highest unemployment rate in December remained Imperial at 18.3%. The second highest was Colusa County at 16.2%. Tulare County came in third at 11.2%.

        San Mateo County still had the lowest unemployment rate — 3.2% — followed by San Francisco County at 3.5% and San Luis Obispo County at 3.6%.

        The state had 18,373,900 employed residents in December, a drop of 32,700 from November and a decrease of 108,200 from December 2022.

        https://www.courthousenews.com/california-unemployment-rises-again-to-5-1/

        1. “California ended 2023 with an unemployment rate of 5.1% — a 1% increase from a year ago.”

          The rate was 4.1% a year ago. High school mathematics says that the percentage increase in the unemployment rate is
          (new level – old level) ÷ (old level), for a
          (5.1 – 4.1) / 4.1 = 24.4% increase over one year’s time, not a 1% increase.

          “Math is hard.”

          — Barbie

          1. 24.4% increase over one year’s time

            That’s a lot and more accurate reflects the uptick in layoffs thus far.

      3. When did California’s unemployment rate creep up to above 5%, with noone reporting it?

        Well, since we all know that number is bogus to begin with and the real number is likely to be far worse, why would they report it?

        1. Government statisticians collect data and churn it through the same statistical meat grinder, month in, month out, and report the results that come out. A government employee who deliberately doctored staristical results could be subject to reprimand or firing, and the credibility of the data series would be undermined.

          You can argue about the unemployment rate calculation methodology, such as excluding “discouraged workers” from the formula (unemployed citizens of working age who became so discouraged about job prospects so they stop looking, and perhaps start living permanently outdoors as a result). But there is a clearly a recurring recession signal in the unemployment rate data that has shown up at a roughly decadal frequency, and the underlying recession phenomenom likely was around for thousands of before modern record keeping. (You likely recall the “seven good years, seven bad years” of crop production in Joseph’s dream, long before today’s climatologists brought us global warming.)

          And maybe this time is different, but in past episodes, a steep (e.g. 24.4%, not 1%) one year increase in unemployment has signalled the onset of a recession. We’ll never know whether the reporter misrepresented the numbers out of ignorance or intent to deceive unwary readers.

          1. The Biden Administration has corrupted every facet of government. Including the statistics too. You know there is strong pressure to ensure that Bidenomics is working. Regimes all around the world lie about their economic data, I don’t see why Biden’s data would suddenly be insulated from pressure.

    4. Market Outlook
      Today’s Market
      The Case For Bonds In 2024
      Jan. 20, 2024 5:05 AM
      ETBOXX, DFCF, DFGP, DFSD, DGCB, DODLX, DOXLX, DUSB, VFFSX, VFIAX, VFINX, VOO, WHOSX33
      EB Investor profile picture

      Summary

      – The stock market is overvalued, with investors taking on more risk today for less expected return in the future, leaving bonds as a better alternative.

      – Investors are pouring cash into money market funds, but the high yields may be short-lived. Bonds are a better alternative based on the evidence from past rate cycles.

      – Bonds continue to be superior to stocks or cash in the current environment.

      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4663921-the-case-for-bonds-in-2024

    5. News and Insight for the Digital Economy
      Financeflux | On January 20, 2024

      US Bankruptcies Hit 13-Year High As ‘Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach Predicts Massive Recession Incoming
      By Henry Kanapi

      Corporate bankruptcies in the United States hit a 13-year high last year as companies struggled to stay afloat amid high interest rates and rising labor costs.

      New data from market intelligence firm S&P Global shows 2023 saw a total of 642 bankruptcy filings – the highest level since 2010 when there were 827 bankruptcy filings.

      According to S&P Global, California recorded the most filings across the country with 95 firms seeking bankruptcy protection in 2023, followed by Texas with 75 and Florida with 68. New York witnessed 58 filings last year while New Jersey documented 31. Other states that had 15 or more bankruptcy filings include Massachusetts, Georgia, Nevada, Illinois, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

      S&P Global warns that business conditions will remain tough in 2024 as the cost to borrow capital remains high.

      “Although investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as March, companies will still have to contend with relatively high interest rates and robust wage growth in the near term.”

      https://dailyhodl.com/2024/01/20/us-bankruptcies-hit-13-year-high-as-bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-predicts-massive-recession-incoming

    1. A while back I watched a documentary on rifles used in wars. One story was about an NVA soldier who was found dead and decomposing on top of his AK-47. The U.S. soldiers who found him pulled the AK out from under him which they said was covered in decomposing human, racked the charging handle to put a fresh round in the chamber and… Bang-bang-bang-bang

    1. I’ve said it before: I bought one new in the box and had it installed in a single family shack in N AZ. I’ll never own one again. If you do, better also get enough space heaters fer yer shack size cuz they always break down Saturday night and you may not get a call back Sunday morning.

      1. In Florida, most or at least many modern homes (built in last 25 years) have AC w/Heat Pump option. Since Florida does not generally have low temperatures in the winter, the heat pumps work well particularly on the late model high efficiency units. That is true unless outside temp drops below about 45 degrees. In that case, most units have backup electric resistance heaters.
        Keep in mind my comment about temperatures in Florida being mostly mild during winter and the backup electric resistance heaters are seldom invoked.

    2. Parents’ fury after primary school closes SIX times in just three months due to brand new £358,000 heat pump system breaking down

      And it doesn’t even get that cold over there.

      I have a Dublin, Ireland based colleague who spends 500 Euros a month to heat his tiny home to the mid 60’s with a heat pump.

    3. I have a geothermal heat pump and it can keep my 2000 sf house at 70 when it’s 18 degrees outside.
      I wouldn’t have an air-to-air one though.

    1. Buh-bye, Deep State DeSantis. Now lets see if Democrat Trojan horse Nimrata gains any traction.

      1. We have open primaries here in the Centennial state. I know Dems here are telling their voters to vote the GOP ballot and to vote for Haley.

      2. Nimrata sucks but any RINO is better than Biden. He’s objectively the worst president in my lifetime.

        1. She would be our Rishi Sunak. A “conservative” who leaves the border wide open, keeps pushing us towards net zero, and enables the woke insanity.

  13. Infowars.com
    January 21st 2024, 10:08 am

    UFC fans apparently have no love for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

    Chants of “F*ck Trudeau” erupted from the massive crowd during the UFC 297 event the Scotiabank Arena Toronto, Canada on Saturday night.

    🍏 Nat 🍎
    @NatMakesBets

    “F#ck Trudeau” chants in solidarity! LOVE to see it! #UFC297

    Jan 20, 2024

    https://x.com/NatMakesBets/status/1748909362167324707?s=20

  14. John Basham
    @JohnBasham

    BREAKING: In A Federal Court In Atlanta Georgia On Friday J. Alex Halderman (@jhalderm) Was Able To HACK A DOMINION VOTING TABULATOR In Front Of U.S. District Judge Amy Totenberg USING ONLY A PEN TO CHANGE VOTE TOTALS! This Is Part Of A Long Running Lawsuit By Election Integrity… Show more

    https://x.com/JohnBasham/status/1748842087888441782?s=20

  15. Group of newly arrived migrants allegedly behind string of burglaries plaguing Chicago suburb: police

    By Social Links forDeirdre Bardolf
    Published Jan. 20, 2024, 2:24 p.m. ET

    A band of newly arrived migrants who may be part of a bigger crime ring are allegedly behind a string of retail thefts and burglaries plaguing a Chicago suburb, police said.

    In all, 47 migrants have been arrested since October in the village of Oak Brook, about 20 miles west of the Second City, Chief of Police Brian Strockis told Fox News, adding many of the incidents have targeted a Macy’s in the local mall.

    On Jan. 13, Jaime Ubaldo Obando-Andrade, 32, allegedly tried on a $395 jacket at the department store and walked out without paying for it, according to a news release from DuPage County State’s Attorney Bob Berlin’s office.

    Police found approximately $3,000 worth of suspected stolen goods in Obando-Andrade’s car, as well as rolls of tin foil and a fake driver’s license, they said.

    “These retail crimes involving migrant offenders are part of a bigger criminal enterprise and we are working closely with our federal partners to thoroughly investigate these cases,” Strockis said in the release.

    In October, Venezuelan migrants Luis Mendez-Gomez, 28, and Frank Montez-Davila, 23, were arrested after they allegedly stole nearly $3,000 in high-end cosmetics from Macy’s and granted pre-trial release.

    A week before that, another pair of Venezuelan migrants were arrested and charged with burglary and retail theft after they separately stole clothes from the store, authorities said.

    “We want everyone to be aware of the increase in criminal activity from the migrant community coming from Chicago,” Oak Brook Deputy Chief of Police Reid Foltyniewicz said at the time.

    Chicago, a sanctuary city that does not cooperate with federal authorities investigating crimes by illegal immigrants or allowing local law enforcement to inquire about a person’s citizenship status, has received around 34,000 migrants since 2022.

    https://nypost.com/2024/01/20/news/group-of-newly-arrived-migrants-allegedly-behind-string-of-burglaries-plaguing-chicago-suburb-police/

    1. Chicago has far, far more than 34,000 migrants, those are only the migrants intentionally shipped here. The rest seamlessly disappear into parallel and insular ethnic conclaves and live/work with cousins, relatives, friends. Some of the suburban schools out here are nearly 100% hispanic with half the students being ESL. THe under 18 kids in ESL are all illegal immigrants. Suburbs like Aurora (the second biggest city in the state) have nearly 100% hispanic elementary and high schools.

      In Chicago city proper the hispanics are rapidly taking over black neighborhoods, block by block. And the first noticeable effect is that the neighborhood’s murder rate drops by 75%. It’s still unsafe for people like us, but it’s much safer overall. THe blacks are angry because the migrants and hispanics are taking over the city. The irony is that the great replacement is happening, except it’s replacing blacks in urban areas with hispanics. And blacks are angry at their democrat politicians. but there’s nothing they can do. It’s not like blacks are going to vote Republican when they discover our opinoins about affirmation action, welfare and abortion! They’ve been betrayed by their leaders, it’s crazy how bad they’ve been betrayed, and there ain’t nothing they can do about it.

  16. Ron DeSantis drops out of presidential race after campaign’s failure to launch

    Sun, January 21, 2024 at 2:21 PM CST

    “We don’t have a clear path to victory. Accordingly, I am today suspending my campaign,” Mr DeSantis said. “I’m proud to have delivered on 100% of my promises. I will not stop now.”

    The Florida governor went on to endorse the former president for the nomination.

    “I’ve had disagreements with Donald Trump, such as on the Coronavirus pandemic, and his elevation of Anthony Fauci,” he said. “Trump is superior to the current incumbent Joe Biden.”

    “I signed a pledge to support the Republican nominee and I will honor that pledge,” he continued. “He has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, or a repackaged form of warmed over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents.”

    https://news.yahoo.com/ron-desantis-drops-presidential-race-201041031.html

    1. Another Establishment GOP empty suit who would’ve been a cipher for the uniparty’s globalist oligarch mega-donors.

  17. [This is a long article hence I am offering up snips .]

    China’s rapidly dwindling future will shape the world for decades to come

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinas-rapidly-dwindling-future-shape-112201980.html

    {snip snip snip snip …]

    2024 is the year of the incredible shrinking China.

    The country’s growth has been treated like an inevitability for decades. Everything was getting bigger — its cultural influence, geopolitical ambition, population — and seemed poised to continue until the world was remade in China’s image. The foundation for this inexorable rise was its booming economy, which allowed Beijing to throw its might around in other areas. But now China’s economy is withering, and the future Beijing imagined is being cut down to size along with it.

    The clearest sign of this diminishment is China’s worsening deflation problem. While Americans are worried about inflation, or prices rising too fast, policymakers in Beijing are fretting because prices are falling. The consumer price index has declined for the past three months, the longest deflationary streak since 2009. In the race for global economic supremacy, deflation is an albatross around Beijing’s neck. It’s a sign that the Chinese economic model has well and truly run out of juice and that a painful restructuring is required. But beyond the financial problems, the sinking prices are a sign of a deeper malaise gripping the Chinese people.

    “China’s deflation is the deflation of hope, the deflation of optimism. It’s a psychological funk,” Minxin Pei, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College, told me.

    The fallout won’t be contained to China’s shores. Because the country’s growth sent money stampeding around the globe over the past few decades, its contractions are creating a seesaw effect in global markets. The foreign investors who helped to power China’s rise are running to avoid catching the funk on their balance sheets, and governments the world over are starting to question the narrative of China, the dauphin. What Beijing does — or fails to do — to fight this malaise will determine the course of humanity for decades to come.

    China’s deflation worries started in earnest in the summer. Consumer prices contracted 0.3% in July compared with the same month a year before — something that hadn’t happened since the depths of the pandemic. While other advanced economies were taking off too fast, China was showing signs that it might be getting stuck. Prices seemed to stabilize in August — until pork prices started to decline dramatically, pushing down the aggregate price index in October, November, and December. There was some hope for policymakers, though, since much of the deflation was driven by pork prices, which are extremely volatile in China. But recent data shows that core inflation, which excludes more volatile categories such as food and energy, is similarly anemic, rising just 0.6% year over year in December.

    China’s primary problem, though, is debt, particularly in the real-estate sector, which makes up 25% to 35% of the country’s GDP. Years of overbuilding — by about double the population, according to some estimates — and slowing population growth caused prices to collapse. The real-estate trouble has ravaged the balance sheets of Chinese households — many of which have sunk a massive proportion of their savings into property — and cast a pall on the rest of the economy.

    “Chinese people have 70% of assets in housing, so you can imagine the effect on confidence,” Wei Yao, the chief economist at Société Générale, told me. “This is the factor why this deflation could be long-lasting.”

    Seeing their investments tank has led many people to stop spending. Fifteen years ago, Wall Street assumed that the Chinese consumer would ultimately become the dictator of the global economy. Now they’re in hiding. Even as the country emerged from the deep freeze of its “Zero COVID” policy, retail sales growth was disappointing compared with some analysts’ projections.

    “I think it is unrealistic to believe that deflationary pressure will disappear when there is still so much pressure on property prices and consumers are in savings mode,” Chu said.

    “We don’t think the US faces a growth challenge from China anymore at this stage,” Rhodium Group’s Wright said. “The concern from the US and Europe are the spillovers from excess capacity.” In other words, China will pick its fights more selectively and defend its economic advantages more fiercely. A world built larger through global financial connections will disconnect and disperse into smaller nodes.

    Do not expect a shrinking China to be a shrinking violet. Outside loaning money, magnanimity has never been Beijing’s strong suit. The slights that smarted when it was a growing superpower will only hurt more in shrunken stature. Xi will never let go of saving face. That’s the nature of a one-man reign.

    1. I posted lotsa China shrinkage articles at the end of yesterday’s thread while not sleeping well last night. It’s pretty amazing how everything from housing prices to population size is shrinking over there, except not GDP, which always goes up in China.

      1. China has just started their Great Depression. No one seems to be acknowledging just how bad things are over there. All these stories of households losing all of their wealth pumped into shoddily built and empty real estate in the middle of faraway Tier 3 and 4 cities is like the shoeshine boy putting his life savings and inheritance into secret investment trusts. It’s fascinating to me how truly global this will become, it’s the black swan right in front of our face that nearly everyone is ignoring, but all we hear is that Trump is a danger to democracy…

      2. except not GDP, which always goes up in China.

        I keep wondering the same thing. “kind of” leads me to question the data.

  18. From the Colorado Sun’s “What’s Working” column:

    What’s Working: Colorado added just 300 jobs in December, as unemployment rate rose to 3.4%

    Just 300 jobs added? Roh-roh Shaggy!

      1. There is a chart in the article that shows the private sector lost 1700 jobs in December, meaning the gooberment added 2000 jobs.

        Without the massive deficits and government hiring, we we already be officially in a depression.

        1. already be officially in a depression

          The IRS should consider borrowing as taxable income, just to be consistent.

  19. Did Wall Street just step away from the poisonous left?

    https://joannenova.com.au/

    The head of the largest bank in the US said the unthinkable in Davos this week. Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan, and perhaps the most important banker in New York and thus the US, warned the Democrats that they were making a mistake demonizing Trump supporters. He even admitted Trump got some things “kind of” right, suggested rather radically that it was time people grew up “I mean, really?” he said “Can we stop that stuff” and “treat other people with respect and listen to them a little bit?”

    Normally, JP Morgan can be counted to be on the same side as the big banker WEF cabal, or to some extent, driving it. Dimon has spent the last three months talking up Nikki Haley. So he is going right off the ranch here.

    “I wish the Democrats would think a little more carefully when they talk about MAGA,” Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday from the World Economic Forum in Davos.

    “I don’t think they are voting for Trump because of his family values,” Dimon said. “Just take a step back and be honest: He was kind of right about NATO. He was kind of right about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Tax reform worked.”

    Jamie Dimon seems be aware not only that Trump might win, but that the Democrats are fueling his campaign by maligning his supporters, in much the same way Hillary did when she called half the nation “Deplorables”. Obviously, if Trump wins, Dimon doesn’t want The President as an enemy. But it’s more than that — even though he’s speaking as if he’s a Democrat fan giving them advice — really he is backing slowly away from a trainwreck.

    Earlier in the same interview he was passionate about the disaster that is uncontrolled immigration. He said “if you do not control the borders you are going to destroy the country”. Those are fighting words, not the tip-toeing “kinda right” verbiage, and it’s an implicit endorsement of the Trump trademark Build the Wall policy of 2016.

    It’s as if he might have realized they created a monster. Destroying the country is a dynamite phrase. Even though both sides of the political spectrum will be listening to his every word, this is not kindly advice to the Democrats. Even if Democrats promised to “build a wall,” it’s too late now. Who would believe they’d do it come inauguration day? It’s way past that.

    Quite possibly there’s another event cracking the socialist facade across the West, and that’s the unspoken dark hellfire of October 7th in Israel. That lifted the veil on the crazy pro-terrorist part of the Democrats — the apologists for baby beheading. Jamie Dimon didn’t mention that, but there are plenty of Jewish folk on Wall Street, and plenty of their non-Jewish colleagues have been mortified by the glee, the jubilation of barbarism inflicted on democratic voters that was expressed by large parts of today’s Democratic Party. The activist left are calling Donald Trump an existential threat to democracy, but then cheering on invaders who rape and murder women and send their mom a video of their “great success”. And who are those people coming uninvited and unvetted over the border of the USA?

    Maybe we’ve reached a point where some of those pumping for Big-Gov have glimpsed the heart of darkness inside the Trojan Socialist Horse?

    If the bankers of Wall Street are stepping away from the Democrats, even cheating may not save the left in this election. (Though jail or assassination are still in the toolkit).

    If the person saying this was just a wayward billionaire, the talking heads on CNN and CNBC would be outraged. But Jamie Dimon controls a company with $4 trillion dollars in assets. He eats small banks for breakfast. After 200+ years on Wall Street, JP Morgan Chase is embedded at the core of the largest financial centre of the largest economy on Earth.

    Notice how the CNN team quickly adopted his stance (albeit through gritted teeth for some). Then they steered the conversation back to their favorite hunting grounds of “personality” and character politics — and away from dangerous talk of actual policies and things that might affect millions of Americans.

    Below in a longer part of the interview, Dimon stays “on the WEF ranch” until about 3:10 when he talks about immigration:

    “We have to control the borders, … if you do not control the borders you are going to destroy the country.”

    When the CEO of a $500 billion dollar company speaks, everyone listens.

    In other pieces of this puzzle, Dimon describes himself as “barely a Democrat” though he donates “serious cash” to the Democrats. He once said ‘My heart is Democratic but my brain is kind of Republican’. Six months ago Dimon hinted that he might consider serving his country (as President) himself.

    And once, a long long time time ago, he was asked if he was interested in being the Treasury Secretary by the 45th President himself. He said he wasn’t interested at the time. Perhaps that’s changed?

    1. It’s pretty impressive really, given Dimon’s reputation as a longtime Democrat.

      What I find most amusing is how Democrats offer Trump the perfect targets for his campaign strategy. They couldn’t play the triggering victim role any better if someone paid them.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cvTtE2On8Yc

  20. ‘After three straight years of ‘negative net absorption,’ meaning more space was available for rent at the end of the year than at the beginning, reaching 13.5 million square feet, for a four-year combined total of almost 22.8 million square feet, according to CoStar. By comparison, the total amount from 2008 to 2010 during the Great Recession was just under 5.2 million square feet, and though the total was 9.8 million in 2001 after the dot-com crash, that lasted only one year’

    It is different this time.

  21. ‘They should also ensure that buyers attach a hefty deposit so they won’t be tempted to walk away from a deal. While agreements of purchase and sale are legally binding documents, Mr. Rocca says buyers who get cold feet may look for an escape. ‘If there’s an out, a buyer can find it’

    Wa happened to my red hotcakes Pat?

  22. ‘State-owned developers like Greenland Group and China Poly Group have been actively closing down their Australian operations as their parent companies claw back capital’

    Seeing those names was a way back. They were on this blog often ten or so years ago.

  23. ‘What China saw last year was possibly the most disappointing post-Covid recovery imaginable’

    Of all the self-fook shooting that minor respitory illness gave us Xitler wins the prize Shehzad. China’s economy is fubar.

    1. I recall a news story out of Shanghai from a few years ago. Shanghai Disneyland had been allowed to reopen, and when there was an outbreak detected in the park, all the visitors were locked in and were not allow to leave until were tested and cleared. Some people were forced to stay overnight, though they were not even offered a cot to rest on, before being allowed to leave.

      Also loved how all of a sudden, China decided Covid wasn’t a problem anymore and lifted the restrictions all at once

      1. Anyone who feels America’s covid policies were harmful should take a close look at China and be glad we aren’t them.

      2. COVID zero was extremely unpopular and my understanding is that it was not only ineffective, but damaging Xi’s dictatorship by making him look to much like a dictator.

  24. ‘As early as March 2020, Fauci recommended a nationwide lockdown and called for a “dramatic diminution of the personal interaction” in daily activities’

    You will rot in hell you sniveling rat bashtard.

    ‘He warned that “life is not going to be the way it used to be in the United States,” while insisting that was “best for the American public’

    Jerry said the same thing, a new normal. We’re not going back. Just what did that mean central bankers, you all said it in unison? I’ve got the blog posts to prove it. We weren’t going back to pre-minor repository illness-draconian horse hockey?

    You lost losers. We are back and we want more freedom than ever.

  25. Booker T. & The MG’s – Time Is Tight (Live, 1970)
    60s70sVintageRock
    12 years ago

    Booker T. & The MG’s opened this Creedence Clearwater Revival concert at the Oakland Coliseum, 1/31/70. Seen offstage are John Fogerty, Doug Clifford (w/beard), and Stu Cook (w/glasses).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbBcXvKvB08

    5:27.

  26. Article about to post has shocking news: San Diego housing prices are unaffordable and a major driver of inflation!

    1. San Diego’s housing costs are a big driver of inflation
      The average for single-family homes in San Diego is over $960,000
      By Amber Frias
      • Published January 20, 2024
      • Updated on January 20, 2024 at 10:14 pm
      NBC 7’s Amber Firas takes a closer look at what’s behind the increase in rent and home prices.

      America’s Finest City features some of America’s highest costs of living.

      Zillow, an online real estate company, estimates the median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the city of San Diego is $2,395. It’s a hefty price that many find challenging to afford.

      “I couldn’t imagine having the bulk of it, the majority of it, going just to my housing, especially when living and everything like that, gas, food, has increased so much in the last couple of years,” Olivia Dinardo, a Linda Vista resident, said.

      Dinardo shares a home with two others, paying $1,200 for one room. Her friend Logan Kirin is in the same boat. She pays $1,430 for her room.

      “One of my roommates is a nanny,” Kirin, a North Park resident, said. “She has to work like 50-60 hours a week. She has two nanny jobs. She works the weekends as well.”

      Despite both being highly-skilled nurses, they can’t imagine affording their place while maintaining their lifestyle.

      “If I leave, I’m going to have to have another roommate,” Dinardo said.

      Financial advisers recommend following a plan in which your rent-to-income ratio is less than 30%. This means you would need to make at least $120,000 a year to comfortably afford a one-bedroom apartment in San Diego.

      The median income for a single person in the city is only $81,000.

      The California Department of Housing and Community Development says more than 50% of renters are spending more than what is considered affordable.

      Homeowners face a similar problem. The average for single-family homes in San Diego is over $960,000.

      Nearly 40% of owner households are spending more than what is recommended on their mortgage.

      https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/san-diegos-housing-costs-are-a-big-driver-of-inflation/3408771

    2. NBC 7 San Diego
      California home-down-payment program makes $150K available to some first-timers
      The highly popular Dreams for All program will allocate $250 million in down payment assistance to first-time buyers
      By Amber Frias
      • Published January 19, 2024
      • Updated on January 20, 2024 at 11:06 pm
      NBC Universal, Inc.
      If you’re currently looking to buy your first-ever home, you may be eligible for some financial help. NBC 7’s Amber Frias reports.

      For many San Diegans, especially young ones, the dream of owning a home feels unattainable.

      “All the houses in the area that I want to stay in are way out of my budget,” said Maria Garcia, a Spring Valley resident. “Even the smallest house is like $1 million.”

      Garcia has been saving for four years, hoping to give her little girls a yard to play in.

      “It’s stressful,” Garcia said. “I feel like my dream just gets further and further away.”

      No matter how much Garcia saves, she still finds herself priced out of the market.

      “Then you have all the other things going up with inflation; gas prices, food prices,” Garcia said.

      Garcia isn’t the only one who feels that way.

      “I’m trying to save up, but even the amount of money that I think is a lot still is not enough to cover the down payment,” San Diegan Helen Garcia (no relation to Maria) told NBC 7.

      Helen, a highly skilled nurse, said she has no other choice but to live at home to try and save.

      “All of us are living with our parents right now, just trying to save up,” Helen said. “That’s the plan right now.”

      The state of California has another solution: The highly popular Dreams for All program, which will allocate $250 million in down payment assistance to first-time buyers.

      “So what the Dream for All program does is it gives you a loan of up to 20% of the purchase price to buy the home,” said Eric Johnson, spokesperson for the California Housing Finance Agency. “In exchange, when you sell the home, you pay back to the state of California about 20% of the amount that the home has appreciated or gone up in price”.

      The program, now in its second year, had a $300 million budget last year, Johnson said that was claimed in just 11 days.

      “People want to have their slice of that American dream, and we’re doing all we can to help out with that,” Johnson said.

      There are some changes to note this year: First of all, the program will be limited to a first-generation homebuyer; meaning somebody who has never owned a home and whose parents aren’t homeowners.

      “So many people can get into a home because their parents can help with the down-payment assistance or they have some equity in somebody else’s home, that sort of thing,” Johnson said. “We want to make sure that more people have the opportunity to purchase a home in California.”

      Also new this year: Recipients will be chosen by a lottery drawing, with somewhere between 1,700-2,000 selected, each eligible for a maximum loan of $150,000.

      https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/california-home-down-payment-program-makes-150k-available-to-some-first-timers/3410157/?amp

      1. “California home-down-payment program makes $150K available to some first-timers”

        Our house cost less than this down payment assistance, LOL.

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