Mortgage Rates Said, Hold My Beer, And The Honeymoon Is Over

1. ‘It is way too soon. It seems to me like it’s abuse because if I didn’t have insurance and they came and offered me something, I might take it’

   I agree Ramon, I’d let you clean everything up, run out of money and offer you an a$$ pounding you couldn’t refuse.

   1. So if an all-cash buyer knocked on Ramon’s door at the peak of the scamdemic-era housing bubble and made Ramon an unsolicited offer on his shack, would that be abuse, too?

2. Do you worry that risk assets might change direction in 2024, including housing and the Mmagnificent Seven, leading FUD to replace FOMO?

   1. Yahoo
      Live
      Updated 8 min ago
      Yahoo Finance
      Stock market today: Nasdaq futures sink after early Big Tech bust, with Fed on deck
      Brett LoGiurato
      Wed, January 31, 2024 at 5:25 AM PST

      US stock futures turned mostly lower Wednesday, with the Nasdaq set to fall over 1% at the open after the first batch of results from tech giants largely failed to satisfy investors. Wall Street was also bracing Wednesday for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate decision of the year.

      The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was set to sink around 1.1% Wednesday. The benchmark S&P 500 traded about 0.5% lower after slumping slightly below its record high on Tuesday. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, ticked slightly above the flatline.

      “Magnificent Seven” names Microsoft and Alphabet, along with chipmaker AMD, took center stage on the earnings docket Tuesday. All three stocks were hit Wednesday, with over 5% drops from the Google parent and AMD outpacing Microsoft’s modest decline.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-nasdaq-futures-sink-after-early-big-tech-bust-with-fed-on-deck-124311784.html

   2. User
      Do you worry that risk assets might change direction in 2024, including housing and the Magnificent Seven, leading FUD to replace FOMO?

      ChatGPT
      As an AI, I don’t experience emotions or worries like humans do. However, it’s plausible that market dynamics can shift over time, including for risk assets like housing and the Magnificent Seven (assuming you’re referring to certain high-growth stocks or sectors). Shifts from FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) to FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) are common in financial markets and can occur due to various factors such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, or changes in investor sentiment. It’s essential for investors to stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly to navigate such changes.

   3. Real Estate
      Case Shiller Index: Home prices stabilize after long streak of increases
      case shiller index – homes, golden handcuffs, cash – photo illustration
      Images by Getty Images; Illustration by Issiah Davis/Bankrate
      4 min read January 30, 2024
      Written by Ruben Caginalp
      Edited by Michele Petry

      The nine-month streak of steadily increasing housing prices in the U.S. has finally snapped.

      After steadily declining for seven consecutive months in 2022, housing prices reversed course and increased for an even longer stretch of nine months in 2023 — until now.
      …

      1. ChatGPT
         Yes, how can I assist you today?

         User
         Has an influx of money from Wall Street turned US housing into a risk asset in the US?

         ChatGPT
         The influx of money from Wall Street into the US housing market can certainly impact its dynamics. When large amounts of capital flow into the housing market, it can drive up prices and increase speculation, potentially making housing more of a risk asset for certain investors. This can lead to concerns about affordability and stability in the housing market, particularly if there is a disconnect between housing prices and underlying economic fundamentals. However, the extent to which this phenomenon affects the broader housing market can vary depending on various factors such as local market conditions, regulatory measures, and economic trends.

         User
         “…potentially making housing more of a risk asset for certain investors…”
         That’s a dumb statement that sounds like it was written by a relitter.

         ChatGPT
         I apologize if the statement didn’t meet your expectations. To clarify, the influx of money from Wall Street into the US housing market can indeed introduce risks, particularly for certain types of investors such as those relying heavily on short-term gains or speculative investments. These investors may face increased volatility and potential losses if market conditions shift. However, it’s essential to note that not all investors or participants in the housing market are affected in the same way, and the impact can vary depending on individual circumstances and strategies.

         User
         I don’t get your “risk assets for some” statement. Wouldn’t pretty much all homeowners be hit with capital losses if speculators yielded to FUD and dumped their HODLings en masse?

         ChatGPT
         You raise a valid point. When there’s a significant sell-off due to speculation or market sentiment, it can indeed affect the broader housing market, potentially leading to capital losses for many homeowners, not just speculators. The term “risk asset” typically refers to an asset whose value can fluctuate due to market conditions and investor sentiment. In the context of housing, while all homeowners may face risks such as declines in property values during market downturns, the degree of risk exposure can vary depending on factors like mortgage terms, equity levels, and the ability to weather economic downturns. Therefore, while the impact of speculative activity on the housing market can be widespread, the extent of its effects on individual homeowners may vary.

         User
         It’s certainly a good thing that everyone buying a home in the US makes a 20% downpayment.

         ChatGPT
         Making a 20% downpayment when buying a home can indeed provide several benefits, including reducing the overall loan amount, potentially qualifying for better mortgage terms, and building equity faster. It also helps protect homeowners from negative equity situations, where the outstanding mortgage balance exceeds the home’s value. However, it’s essential to consider that not all homebuyers are able to make a 20% downpayment, and there are various loan programs available with lower downpayment requirements. While larger downpayments can mitigate risk for homeowners, they may not always be feasible for everyone, especially for first-time buyers or those in expensive housing markets.

         User
         That was another dumb, off topic answer. You are going to have to lift your game if you want people to believe you are intelligent.

         ChatGPT
         I apologize for the off-topic response. Let me address your point directly. While a 20% downpayment can indeed provide a buffer against potential market fluctuations and negative equity situations, not all homeowners are able to make such a substantial downpayment. For those who are unable to make a 20% downpayment, there are alternative financing options available, but these may come with additional risks, such as higher monthly payments or private mortgage insurance (PMI). Therefore, while a larger downpayment can offer advantages, the decision ultimately depends on individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance.

         User
         Let me spell it out for you: When many buyers have little skin in the game, due to using a high degree of leverage (e.g. downpayments way below 20%) to fund housing purchases, the housing market becomes overpriced and permeated with riisk as a result, beginning to resemble the US stock market situation of the late 1920s. This systemic macroeconomic risk infuses the entire housing market and does not vary by individual. A small market decline may put many recent buyers underwater, leading prospective new buyers to wait for further price declines rather than face the risk of loss. And when purchase decisons are based on potential financial gains instead of the value of housing as shelter, the nature of housing as an asset class is no longer based on fundamentals and instead resembles stocks and cryptocurrencies: i.e. it is a risk asset.

         ChatGPT
         Thank you for providing further clarification. When a large number of buyers have minimal equity in their homes due to low downpayments and high leverage, the housing market can indeed become vulnerable to systemic risks, similar to the situation in the US stock market of the late 1920s. This over-reliance on leverage can lead to inflated prices and increased market fragility, where even a small decline in prices could leave many recent buyers underwater on their mortgages.

         Furthermore, when purchase decisions are driven primarily by the expectation of financial gains rather than the intrinsic value of housing as shelter, it can further exacerbate market instability and turn housing into a speculative asset similar to stocks and cryptocurrencies. In such cases, the housing market becomes detached from its underlying fundamentals, increasing the overall risk profile of the asset class.

         Your point highlights the importance of considering not just individual homeowner risk, but also the systemic risks that can permeate the entire housing market when leverage and speculation become prevalent. Thank you for your insightful analysis.

         ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.

         1. That was fun. Thank you!

            1. I’m thinking I may need to change my blog ID to acknowledge my AI bot partner’s contributions to the discussion.

            2. Please differentiate so that I can Joshua Tree the AI content.

            3. Otherwise PB’s being JT’d completely.

            4. If you could further differentiate MSM posts that would help as well. I’m already skipping over those.

      2. https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/case-shiller/

3. If tapped-out Murican debt donkeys can’t afford to buy used cars, how can they afford to buy used shacks?

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dp0uG36C6YM

4. ‘When houses aren’t selling. Then the owners will say, if I can’t sell, I’m going to rent. So then we had a lot more rental houses on the market,’ Freedon said.”

   I’m no economics major like AOC, but won’t increased supply push down rental rates?

5. It seems to me like it’s abuse because if I didn’t have insurance and they came and offered me something, I might take it.’

   And that’s abusive how? Those lowball offers might be as good as it gets, FBs.

6. “Home sellers are being forced to slash their asking prices by 10pc or more as the market stagnates in the wake of surging interest rates.

   UK FBs who levered up on debt to get up on that housing ladder to effortless riches must be as nervous as a six-year-old at the Neverland Ranch.

7. The lack of registration meant that homeowners with incomplete or defective building work done by the business could make a claim against their home indemnity insurance policy, however investors who backed the projects were left out of pocket.”

   I love the smell of burning housing speculators in the morning.

8. ‘We are pretty sure we have lost everything,’ one investor said. ‘There is a group of people in the same situation. Some have lost their own properties with banks coming at them to reclaim unpaid loans.

   Die, speculator scum.

   1. Francis, your eternal anger is impressive: I’m terminating PG&E and heating my residence with your white hot rage!

      May the Force Be with you.
      Always.

      1. @GRomePow is a far better source of anger and rage. He vehemently hates Trump, Putin, Tesla and American women but has good insights on real estate.

         1. His TDS is f’in insufferable. It makes the rest of his posts virtually unreadable, despite actually being really good.

            1. His TDS is f’in insufferable.

               Yes, it is. Like DDB, he thinks Trump signed socialism into law with the CARES Act.

9. Note that the Post refuses to call them illegals, probably under a directive from Murdoch owned News Corp management.

   New York Post — Cops allegedly beaten by rowdy migrant mob near Times Square — with suspects later freed without bail (1/30/2024):

   “Shocking video captured the moment a migrant mob pounded a pair of cops near Times Square over the weekend — but the busted cowardly suspects were still released back onto the street without bail, sources say.

   Police initially busted four of the asylum-seeking thugs, identified by sources as Darwin Andres Gomez Izquiel, 19, Kelvin Servat Arocha, 19, Juarez Wilson, 21, and Yorman Reveron, 24.

   All four were charged with assault and released without bail, sources said.

   One of the men, Reveron, has two open cases in Manhattan for assault and robbery.

   In November, he allegedly “pushed, punched and bit” a Nordstrom Rack employee who caught him lifting a $130 item from the Union Square store’s display rack, according to law enforcement sources.

   Last month, Reveron also allegedly “punched with a closed fist” a loss prevention officer at the Herald Square Macy’s after trying to pull off a robbery with two other suspects, the sources said.

   “Attacks on police officers are becoming an epidemic, and the reason is a revolving door we’re seeing in cases like this one,” said Police Benevolent Association president Patrick Hendry in a statement. “It is impossible for police officers to deal effectively with crime and disorder if the justice system can’t or won’t protect us while we do that work.”

   https://nypost.com/2024/01/30/metro/cops-beaten-by-rowdy-migrant-mob-in-caught-on-video-assault-near-times-square-and-suspects-later-freed-without-bail/

   “They’re not sending their best”

   1. Darwin Andres Gomez Izquiel, 19, Kelvin Servat Arocha, 19, Juarez Wilson, 21, and Yorman Reveron, 24

      Given those names they are Venezuelan. Darwin? Kelvin? Yorman?

10. Would playing a “stiff the gringos” strategy seal China’s reputation as a bad place to invest?

    1. REAL ESTATE
       Beijing is unlikely to rescue Evergrande’s offshore creditors because it could make things worse at home
       Huileng Tan Jan 30, 2024, 4:09 AM ET
       A man walks past an Evergrande Group residential complex called Evergrande Palace in Beijing on January 29, 2024.
       Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images

       – A Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande on Monday.

       – Beijing is unlikely to ensure that overseas investors get their money back, analysts say.

       – The Hong Kong court order may not be enforced in China, where domestic interests rule.
       …
       https://www.businessinsider.com/china-property-real-estate-crisis-unlikely-rescue-evergrande-offshore-creditors-2024-1

    2. [WARNING: This is a long non-housing related post.]

       Negative Takes on China’s Economy Are Disappearing From the Internet

       Chinese authorities warn against denigrating the economy and urge officials to highlight its ‘bright prospects’

       https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-economy-censorship-internet-4d0372b8

       BEIJING—Several prominent commentaries by economists and journalists in China have vanished from the internet in recent weeks, raising concerns that Beijing is stepping up its censorship efforts as it tries to put a positive spin on a struggling economy.

       This month, top lieutenants of Chinese leader Xi Jinping urged officials to “promote the bright prospects of China’s economy.” Those calls came after an unusual warning from China’s top spy agency in December, which cautioned the public to be wary of those who denigrate the economy. “Economic security is a key component of national security,” the Ministry of State Security said.

       One recent commentary that disappeared was an editorial published last month by Caixin Media, a Beijing-based business news outlet known for backing pro-market reforms. The editorial called for officials to confront economic challenges directly, harking back to when China’s economy was on the brink of collapse during the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s. The editorial said that, at the time, officials insisted that “the situation is excellent,” but in reality people were destitute.

       The article urged officials to “seek truth from facts,” quoting an ancient Chinese aphorism that was frequently invoked by Mao Zedong and especially by his successor Deng Xiaoping, who ushered in four decades of reform and opening.

       “One can only correct inappropriate policies in a timely manner if one sticks to seeking truth from facts,” read the unsigned article, which was published on Dec. 25, a day before the 130th anniversary of Mao’s birth.

       Within hours, the editorial disappeared from Caixin’s website. A representative for Caixin declined to comment.

       That same day, Li Xunlei, an economist at state-owned Zhongtai Securities, warned in a column published on Chinese news outlet Yicai that insufficient household consumption would persist unless China’s leadership took steps to help lower-income families. Li also highlighted a study conducted by Beijing Normal University showing that some 964 million Chinese people, representing roughly 70% of the population, were living on a monthly income of less than 2,000 yuan, equivalent to about $280.

       That data point quickly went viral on Weibo before it disappeared from the Chinese microblogging platform’s official list of trending topics. Before long, Li’s column vanished from Yicai’s website too. It has also become inaccessible on Li’s public account on Chinese messaging platform WeChat, where a message read: “The content can’t be viewed due to violation of regulations.”

       Li couldn’t be reached for comment. Yicai didn’t respond to a request for comment.

       Beijing’s increased concern about the discourse around its economy comes as growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed. Officials say China hit its official target of 5.2% gross domestic product growth in 2023, but it was one of the slowest growth rates in decades, apart from the pandemic era.

       China’s economy is facing an array of headwinds, including a prolonged downturn in the property market and softening exports. Authorities have taken steps to revive consumer and business confidence, including releasing more liquidity into the financial system.

       Still, home prices are falling across major cities, foreign investors are fleeing China at a rapid pace and the country’s stock market is suffering one of its worst slides in years.

       As the data have worsened, Beijing has tightened the flow of information around its economy. In August, China’s statistics bureau abruptly stopped releasing youth unemployment data, after the rate hit a record 21.3%, before unveiling a new youth jobless methodology in December that showed just 14.9% of young people out of work. Regulators have restricted overseas access to some databases and raided the office of foreign due-diligence firms.

       Economists have pointed to depressed confidence among consumers and private entrepreneurs as one of the biggest sources of economic weakness, dampening spending appetite and deterring entrepreneurs from making new investments.

       Discouraging free discourse about the economy reflects the Chinese leadership’s anxieties, said George Magnus, a research associate at the China Centre at Oxford University, who warned that the clampdown on information and commentary will only increase opacity and the risk of policy mistakes.

       “It’s really about cheerleading,” said Magnus, a former chief economist at UBS. “If you stifle debate about important economic developments, it leads to bad decision-making.”

       At a forum last month hosted in part by a state-backed think tank, Liu Jipeng, dean of the business school at the China University of Political Science and Law in Beijing, said that China’s capital markets aren’t yet mature and advised individual investors to stay away from domestic stocks.

       Later that same month, Liu wrote on his personal account on WeChat that he had stepped down from his position at the university, according to Chinese media reports. Liu’s personal account on short-video platform Douyin, the domestic Chinese counterpart of TikTok, can no longer be followed by new users because of what Douyin calls “violations of the platform’s rules.”

       The university didn’t respond to calls seeking comment. Liu couldn’t be reached for comment.

       China’s Communist Party has often reined in public discussion of the economy when prospects have dimmed. China was ranked worst for internet freedom among 70 nations for a ninth straight year in 2023, according to Freedom House, a conservative Washington-based nonprofit organization.

       In mid-December, Weibo sent notices to some users to warn them against making “any negative commentaries on the economy,” according to a copy of the notice received by one user and shared with the Journal.

       “Any comments on the economy that deviate from the official narrative are unwelcome,” said the user, who is an economist. “Clearly, the leadership doesn’t want us to focus on the economy.”

       Weibo didn’t respond to a request for comment.

       To help lift the sagging mood, Beijing has turned not only to internet platforms, but also to law enforcement and the country’s spy agency, for help.

       The economy has emerged as a “key battleground” of competition between large countries, China’s spy agency wrote in an article last month on its official WeChat account. “Various clichés intending to denigrate China’s economy continue to appear,” the Ministry of State Security wrote. “Their essence is to use various false narratives to construct a ‘discourse trap’ and ‘cognitive trap’ about China’s decline in order to…strategically contain and suppress China.”

       Economists are skeptical that such messages are having the desired effect.

       “In the long run, the confidence of consumers and investors is determined by what’s actually happening to the economy,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics. “Censorship of critical messages only provides a veneer that things are going well.”

11. While automakers and suppliers are betting big on future demand for electric vehicles, a near-term global slowdown is causing pain, including bankruptcies, scrapped initial public offerings and production cuts. “It’s true, the pace of EV growth has slowed, which has created some uncertainty. We will build to demand,” General Motors CEO Mary Barra said on an earnings call Tuesday.

    “Global EV momentum is stalling. The market is over-supplied vs demand,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a recent research note.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/industry-pain-abounds-as-electric-car-demand-hits-slowdown/ar-BB1huBzg

    1. Hybrids seem to be the way to go with the best overall gas mileage and the battery uses the gas to charge itself. Every car could be a hybrid. But the ideologues who run everything are too stupid to see what is right in front of their face.

12. Denver’s policies to welcome and support migrants have led the city to a point where there is no more money and no more space. Advocates for migrants say the city should close its doors to new arrivals as Denver prepares to start discharging families who’ve been living in shelters for months.

    “It is unsustainable. It’s unsustainable to continue spending at this rate,” said Jon Ewing with Denver Human Services. “We know that.”

    “Some of them have been in shelter for four months,” Ewing said. “When you’ve been in shelter for four months, we have to really buckle down and say, what’s keeping you here? What is the obstacle to you getting on your feet and getting out of this?”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/as-denver-prepares-to-discharge-migrant-families-from-shelters-advocates-say-its-time-to-stop-allowing-more-people-to-come-to-the-city/ar-BB1hw3Wu

    1. “Some of them have been in shelter for four months,” Ewing said. “When you’ve been in shelter for four months, we have to really buckle down and say, what’s keeping you here? What is the obstacle to you getting on your feet and getting out of this?”

       How endearing, they actually believe these people want to work vs. joining the Free Sh!t Army.

       My school teacher relative tells me that her North Carolina school gets multiple new invader students every day. At this pace the invaders will outnumber the local students at her elementary school before summer break. She told me that the ESL classrooms are already beyond capacity and that the invaders are being dumped into regular classrooms, even though they speak no English whatsoever, plus many are illiterate in their native tongues.

13. KOMO Seattle – An unauthorized RV and tent encampment cleared by the city nearly five months ago has returned to the city’s SODO neighborhood. A couple dozen tents and some RVs now line 3rd Ave S. The encampment lines the west side of the street for a couple of blocks and is located just south of Holgate Street.

    The RVs, the tents, the squalor, the sadness, they’re all here just as those who have dealt with this very encampment worried would happen.

    “I knew it would it happen, it’s happened before it’s not the first sweep… it’s a revolving door, around and around they go,” said Russell Meyer. He’s a third-generation owner, and his family’s business Bens Cleaner Sales, Inc. has been in this very spot since 1945.

    The tents, the garbage, and the RVs are all outside his business’s back door. “We are constantly picking up human feces, rinsing urine down the street, there’s drug paraphernalia, vandalism, and destroyed property,” said Meyer.

    At one point, a naked man in distress showed up in Meyer’s lobby. He believes it was a man in a mental crisis from the encampment. Meyer said the tents now occupy parking spaces his employees would rely on which forces them to park farther away and be hyper-aware of their surroundings before and after work.

    “It’s endless, I couldn’t count the thousands of dollars it cost us over the years,” Meyer said speaking about property damage and vandalism to his business that he links to the encampment. “It’s frustrating for us what we have to deal with and it’s also frustrating that people in the street aren’t getting the help they need, they are to their own devices.”

    Meyer pointed out something KOMO News reported back in July, prior to the city clearing the encampment and offering housing and services to the individuals living there, some of them refused help. They left the encampment and parked around the corner, according to Meyer, just waiting a few days before starting to move back. He said a few returned quickly and over the last few months it’s grown to what it is now.

    The same encampment has been cleared repeatedly by the city, the last was in July right before the big All-Star game at T-Mobile Park, which put Seattle in the national spotlight.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/its-a-revolving-door-rvs-tents-return-to-sodo-neighborhood-months-after-city-cleanup/ar-BB1hvSq4

    1. An unauthorized RV and tent encampment cleared by the city nearly five months ago

       One of the “tent cities” I used to see is gone. I don’t know what happened to the tents or the people, I just know the tents are gone.

       There is/was one other tent city just a few miles from my house. I have not driven by that one for a while so I don’t know i that removed or not.

14. [OMG! Yet another long non-housing related post is being posted on Ben Jones’s blog.]

    “One Of The Most Brilliant Explanations Of The Modern World”:

    Russell Brand Sits With Tucker Carlson For Must-Watch Interview

    Russell Brand flew too close to the sun, it would seem. Just as the popular British comedian was gaining massive attention for confronting global authoritarianism, he was hit with an onslaught of sexual allegations by anonymous accusers, which were amplified throughout the mainstream media.

    Brand, known for his left-leaning ideology, articulate critique of the war in Ukraine, and the history of NATO leading up to said war, drew a clandestine ‘shadow campaign’ against him, which according to Tucker Carlson, “began with governments, not private organizations, but governments, their Intel services and their policy makers.” Brand was even attacked “as a Chinese propagandist” for his views on Ukraine.

    “I’ve never been to China. I don’t purport to understand China, certainly don’t advocate for Chinese policy,” Brand told Carlson, who suggested that the ‘Chinese propagandist’ allegations were nothing more than “the early seeds of a very deceptive plant that flowered more than a year later, in September, when you were accused of these crimes,” referring to the sexual assault allegations.

    “You were making kind of a remarkable case against the Ukrainian people and certainly not in favor of Russia,” Carlson noted, to which Brand replied: “All we’ve essentially done is listen to brilliant academics talking about the history of NATO and the coup in 2014, in Ukraine, and Putin’s explicit declaration that he would prefer, let’s put it mildly, that Ukraine were not invited into NATO, the sum of the regional disputes, how they’re escalating tensions. This is information that, because of independent media, is available.”

    Brand was also attacked after Moderna ‘tracked his content’ during the pandemic, and thinks that we’re at a major inflection point for independent voices.

    It seems to me ridiculously grandiose to even imagine that I would stir and arouse the interests of such powerful agencies and groups that the British government, if indirectly, would spend considerable sums on observing and amplifying content. That true information shared through our platforms in the period of the pandemic was censored, was cited as high risk that companies like Moderna had spent considerable revenue tracking our content and agenda, amplifying it. That Dame Caroline Diana, whose husband is a psyops expert that worked abroad in terrorism before deploying those methods and techniques, and to some degree, those teams to observe what they called disinformation and misinformation in the UK. I recognize that the new emergent media spaces present a lot of possibilities.

    I’m not sure if anybody could be sure of where this is all heading, what the exact teleology is. But it seems to be to do with mass centralization, globalization, significant attempts to control the information space that are so rigorously adhered to and protected that even what you might imagine to be a marginal voice is considered a significant enough threat to warrant coordinated media attacks, expenditure on peculiar, clandestine non-government organizations, and think tanks that take their money from the military industrial complex, from the legacy media who, by the way, when they critique critiquing independent media, they got skin in the game.

    Brand also acknowledges that he put himself in an “extremely vulnerable position by being very, very promiscuous,” adding “And as you have actually said, we all know how this ends. Attacks like this, a crisis like this. Hurtful though it is to be accused of what I consider to be the most appalling crimes to be accused of.”

    How can you live in the ridiculousness of their version of events? I couldn’t have been more open and public about the way that I lived when I was younger. I was promiscuous. If anyone wanted to have sex with me, I’d have sex with them. I publicly announced it at the beginning of all shows.

    Authoritarianism and the Uniparty

    Brand described what he said was “rapidly escalating” authoritarianism and “totalitarian” tactics by information gatekeepers to ‘de-amplify’ him.

    “This seems totalitarian. To control what people are allowed to think – I think that’s the definition of it,” said Carlson, to which Brand agreed, arguing that the ‘uniparty’ is in lockstep against the free flow of information.

    They’re not really pretending. Like, here’s a sort of an extraordinary thing that appears to be playing out. In addition to just being casually informed by the legacy media that we’re on the precipice of war with Russia, and that conscription might be reintroduced in 2024. The there was a there was a Covid inquiry in our country, which, by the way, I don’t imagine for a second would have happened without independent media reporting, without voices like Jay Bhattacharya, who was shut down, or voices like Michael Shellenberger or Berenson, people that have been shut down and vilified at large and extensively. The Covid inquiries already cost 245 million pounds, is being booted off and delayed indefinitely. But at least until after the general election, like many countries, there’s an election in our country this year, but as usual, it’s between two neo liberal what you might term centrist parties that are ultimately dominated and controlled by the same concerns, where an extraordinary focus is spent on the tiny minute differences. But it’s the party nominally of the left is ultimately a centralist, neo liberal party. The party, nominally of the right, is a neo liberal, centralist party. They may quibble about some issues that seem significant, and certainly those issues are stoked and amplified. But neither party will say we are going to have a thorough investigation into what went on in that pandemic. That clearly was a lab leak. It looks like it was a bioweapon. It’s being concealed.

    Asking the right questions

    Carlson noted that while major media organizations may not seem interested in pursuing serious questions about deadly world conflicts, to which Brand said that he’s simply asking questions that a normal person would ask after educating himself “by listening to more educated voices than my own.”

    “So forgive my ignorance. I don’t know much about British politics, but the way that one might intuit, hey, should we not be provoking Russia into a war zone?” Brand replied. “They have nuclear weapons. Should we think very carefully about that? I mean, how much do we want Ukraine in NATO? Do we even need NATO? Anyway? The kind of things you might think if you didn’t go to university, you’re a regular blue collar person working for a living, maybe in the police force or the fire service, or as a nurse or as a teacher, something that gives real value to your nation, the kind of things you might think they’re true.”

    Brand then noted that society is distracted by design, saying “Those ideas are true. And in order to prevent you from reaching those ordinary, everyday regulations, a machine is put to constant work to conquer the space of your attention, incessantly and relentlessly filling your mind with dumb ideas and dumb distractions, making you believe there’s a dash, some sugar, or a screen might be a convenient palliative as your children are marched off into an unwinnable forever war.”

    Freedom in exchange for safety

    Brand also opined on MSM propaganda and fear campaigns, noting that authoritarianism is now “deliberately veiled in the insidious language of care, concern, safety, and convenience,” and that “We’re in a time where we lurch from one crisis to another.”

    “The crisis is always used to legitimize certain solutions and a docile or terrified public is willingly to participate in this proposed solutions that usually involve giving up their freedom,” Brand said, adding “We’re continually being invited to give up our freedom in exchange for safety or convenience and it seems that this process is radically escalating. And I feel that this is something that we will see more of in the coming year. I feel like you’ve spoken publicly about this – that we’re potentially on the precipice of serious, and to use your term ‘a hot war with Russia.’ And that’s being reported on in my country right now – it’s like we’re being prepped, groomed, primed for ‘war is coming.”

    We’re being kept in a state of constant anxiety in order to induce compliance,” Brand continued. “That the ongoing stoking of cultural tension is to ensure that people don’t begin to recognize that actually we have far more in common with one another than we do with these curious sets of the establishment interests that seems to be transcendent of national democracy. To be explicit, I’m talking about organizations like the WHO, NATO, the WEF and their astonishing influence.”

    “These think tanks, and apparently independent organizations, who are not independent when you look at where they get their money – Big Pharma, or the government, or the military-industrial complex. Or the kind of people they employ – people from Deep State agencies, such as the FBI and CIA – that have extraordinary affinity with the legacy media and their ongoing agenda.”

    1. [Link …]

       https://www.zerohedge.com/political/one-most-brilliant-explanations-modern-world-russel-brand-sits-tucker-carlson-must-watch

    2. Promiscuity never ends well for anyone. Diseases, unhappy partners, child support or abortions, and so much time wasted on pointless endeavors. I totally get why people do it because it’s hard to say No to an attractive seemingly no commitment hook up, but the famous need to keep they dix in they pants just like the lottery winners need to keep they cash in they wallet

       1. The tragedy of the low libido destroys far too many marriages and/or relationships. A former co-worker and friend drank himself to death due to the dead bedroom.

       2. Good to know 🤣
          These Are the 10 States With the Highest STD Rates
          https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/slideshows/10-states-with-the-highest-std-rates?slide=12

15. Two weeks to flatten the curve?

    New York Times — Students Are Making a ‘Surprising’ Rebound From Pandemic Closures. But Some May Never Catch Up (1/30/2024):

    “Elementary and middle-school students have made up significant ground since pandemic school closings in 2020 — but they are nowhere close to being fully caught up, according to the first detailed national study of how much U.S. students are recovering.

    Overall in math, a subject where learning loss has been greatest, students have made up about a third of what they lost. In reading, they have made up a quarter, according to the new analysis of standardized test score data led by researchers at Stanford and Harvard.

    Some children may never catch up and could enter adulthood without the full set of skills they need to succeed in the work force and life.

    The students most at risk are those in poor districts, whose test scores fell further during the pandemic. Though the new data shows that they have begun to catch up, they had much more to make up than their peers from higher-income families, who are already closer to a recovery.

    The result: Students in poor communities are at a greater disadvantage today than they were five years ago.”

    https://archive.is/9sTKq

16. War pigs gonna pig, this one by Max Boot.

    Washington Post — A Trump ‘America First’ foreign policy is the last thing the world needs (1/31/2024):

    “Ever since World War II, the United States has played a vital, indeed indispensable, leadership role in the world. It continues to play that role today. You can see it in the U.S. military action, in cooperation with allies, in Yemen to safeguard shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait — a maritime chokepoint that handles a third of the world’s container ship traffic — from Houthi missiles and drones. Other U.S. troops stand guard from Poland to South Korea to protect allies against aggressors. In all, there are some 171,000 U.S. military personnel deployed across 750 bases in at least 80 countries. Notwithstanding the tragic loss of three service members in a drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan on Sunday, most of these deployments keep the peace without incurring any casualites.

    Along with being the world’s policeman, the United States is also the world’s chief diplomat, spearheading efforts to address vital concerns such as public health, climate change and human rights.

    Every president but one since Franklin D. Roosevelt has believed that the United States should exercise preeminent international influence for its own good and that of the world. Trump is the lone exception. He is committed to an “America First” agenda — the same label embraced by the Nazi sympathizers and isolationists of the pre-Pearl Harbor period. He has nothing but scorn for the twin pillars of postwar U.S. foreign policy: free-trade pacts and security alliances.

    But it’s a safe bet Trump will not be appointing any moderates next time. He has vowed to purge apolitical civil servants — a.k.a. “Communists, Marxists, Racists, and Radical Left Thugs.” The Heritage Foundation is compiling long lists of MAGA loyalists to staff a Trump administration.

    The conventional wisdom is that foreign policy doesn’t decide U.S. elections, but the choice has seldom been this scary or stark. The November election will decide whether America continues its post-1945 internationalist foreign policy — or risks a return to the pre-Pearl Harbor policy of isolationism. How did that work out?”

    https://archive.is/5CLYV

    1. [Hmmmmmm …]

       “In all, there are some 171,000 U.S. military personnel deployed across 750 bases in at least 80 countries.”

       1. Indeed, the U.S. is an empire.

17. Is now a good time to HODL longterm Treasurys?

    1. Financial Times
       US Treasury bonds
       US Treasury to hold largest-ever bond auctions to plug budget deficit
       Five-year $70bn auction in April to be biggest sale
       The Treasury said it would increase the size of auctions at most maturities for the next three months
       Kate Duguid in New York and Mary McDougall in London 2 hours ago

       The US Treasury will hold some of its largest-ever debt auctions in the coming three months in an effort to fill the yawning federal budget deficit.

       The Treasury said on Wednesday it would increase the size of auctions at most maturities for the next three months, with two-year and five-year auctions hitting record sizes. The five-year auction in April, for $70bn, would be the biggest ever for debt with a maturity of two years or more.

       The US has been increasing its borrowing over the past few quarters, as the gap between government spending and tax revenue has grown. The federal deficit stood at $1.7tn last year.
       …

    2. User
       “The US Treasury will hold some of its largest-ever debt auctions in the coming three months in an effort to fill the yawning federal budget deficit.”

       Do larger Treasury auctions make interest rates stay higher for longer?

       ChatGPT
       Larger Treasury auctions can potentially lead to higher interest rates if there’s increased demand for borrowing, as more supply of government debt can put upward pressure on interest rates. However, several factors influence interest rates, including economic conditions, monetary policy, and investor sentiment, so the impact of larger auctions alone may vary.

       User
       How did demand enter this discussion? The question is about an exogenous increase in supply. Demand is ceteris paribus.

       ChatGPT
       You’re correct, I apologize for the oversight. With an exogenous increase in supply, all else being equal, interest rates could indeed rise due to the increased supply of government debt, which may put pressure on rates to stay higher for longer. However, the actual impact on interest rates depends on various factors including the reaction of investors and changes in market conditions.

       User
       You seemed confused about my question. Ceteris paribu means demand doesn’t change, but the various factors you mentioned would change demand.

       ChatGPT
       You’re right, I misunderstood your question initially. With ceteris paribus conditions where demand remains constant, an increase in the supply of government debt through larger Treasury auctions could potentially lead to higher interest rates, as the increased supply may outpace demand, putting upward pressure on rates. However, as you mentioned, changes in various factors such as economic conditions and investor sentiment can influence demand and ultimately affect interest rates.

       User
       No, no, no…

       ChatGPT
       My apologies for any confusion. Let’s clarify:

       In a simplified scenario where demand remains constant (ceteris paribus), an exogenous increase in the supply of government debt through larger Treasury auctions would likely lead to a decrease in bond prices and an increase in interest rates. This is because the increased supply of bonds would require higher yields to attract investors, thus pushing interest rates higher. However, in real-world situations, various factors such as changes in economic conditions, monetary policy, and investor sentiment can influence both supply and demand, making the actual impact on interest rates more complex.

       User
       I give up.

       ChatGPT
       I apologize for the confusion, and I appreciate your patience. If you have any further questions or need clarification on any topic, feel free to ask.

       ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.

    3. It seems like stock HODLers didn’t love Jerome Powell’s Fed meeting summary.

       1. Financial Times
          Federal Reserve
          Jay Powell says Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in March are ‘not base case’
          Stocks suffer worst day in four months after comments from central bank chair
          Jay Powell
          Jay Powell: ‘I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting’
          Claire Jones in Washington and Kate Duguid in New York 3 hours ago

          Jay Powell moved to cool speculation that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates as soon as March, saying that was not the “base case” as the US central bank considers easing monetary policy this year.

          Falling inflation in recent months had fuelled market bets that the Fed could begin cutting rates from their 23-year high at its next meeting this spring. But the Fed chair said the central bank still needed “greater confidence” that inflation was “sustainably” lower.

          “I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting . . . I don’t think that’s the base case,” Powell said in comments that prompted traders to slash their bets on a cut this spring and sent stocks sharply lower.
          …

       2. Financial Times
          Pinned Post
          2 hours ago15:36
          US stocks fall most in 4 months as Powell curbs March rate cut hopes
          Jaren Kerr in New York

          Jay Powell handed US stocks their biggest one-day drop in more than four months, as the Federal Reserve chair said the central bank was unlikely to loosen monetary policy in March.

          The S&P 500 closed 1.6 per cent lower on Wednesday, its biggest one-day drop since late September. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.2 per cent, its worst day since late October.

          All of the “Magnificent Seven” Big Tech companies, which helped propel the S&P 500 to a record high in January, also fell.

          Treasuries rallied, pushing the yield on the two-year Treasuries down 0.14 percentage points to 4.22 per cent. The yield on the 10-year note fell 0.13 percentage points at 3.92 per cent.
          …

    4. Yahoo
       Fortune
       ‘Black Swan’ author Nassim Taleb, who correctly called the 2008 financial crisis, says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt
       Eleanor Pringle
       Wed, January 31, 2024 at 3:29 AM PST·4 min read
       Jeenah Moon—Bloomberg via Getty Images

       It’s been dubbed the “most predictable crisis” facing the U.S. economy, but an expert has warned it will take a “miracle” to save America from its national debt problem.

       Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of best-selling book The Black Swan, correctly predicted the 2008 financial crash but said “gloomy” times ahead for the U.S. economy are far more easy to spot.

       Taleb, who advises Miami-based hedge fund Universa Investments, told an event hosted by the organization this week that national debt is a “white swan,” a risk that’s more probable than an unpredictable “black swan” event.

       “So long as you have Congress keep extending the debt limit and doing deals because they’re afraid of the consequences of doing the right thing, that’s the political structure of the political system, eventually you’re going to have a debt spiral,” he explained, per Bloomberg. “And a debt spiral is like a death spiral.”

       Currently the American national debt stands at $34.14 trillion—about $100,000 for every person in the U.S.—with the debt ceiling currently suspended until 2025 courtesy of a deal passed in the summer of 2023.

       And although some of the shorter-term economic signals are flashing green—inflation is coming down, the Fed may by eyeing rate cuts, and employment is staying stable—Taleb and big Wall Street names like Jamie Dimon are sounding the alarm.

       Last week the CEO of JPMorgan Chase said Washington faces a global market “rebellion” over the debt level, adding: “It is a cliff. We see the cliff. It’s about 10 years out.”
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-112918333.html

    5. User
       Is now a good time to invest in Treasurys?

       ChatGPT
       The decision to invest in Treasurys depends on various factors such as your investment goals, risk tolerance, and the current economic environment. Treasurys are generally considered low-risk investments, but their yields can fluctuate based on factors like inflation expectations and Federal Reserve policy. It’s a good idea to assess your own financial situation and consult with a financial advisor to determine if investing in Treasurys aligns with your investment strategy.

       User
       I wasn’t asking for general advice. I said now for a reason.

       ChatGPT
       Apologies for the oversight. To provide a more specific answer, I would need to know the current economic conditions, interest rate outlook, inflation expectations, and any recent market developments. Without this information, I can’t give a tailored recommendation for investing in Treasurys at this moment. If you can provide more details about the current financial landscape, I can offer a more informed opinion.

       User
       You don’t really know much.

       ChatGPT
       I apologize if my response didn’t meet your expectations. I’m here to help to the best of my abilities based on the information provided. If there’s anything specific you’d like to discuss or if you have any other questions, feel free to let me know, and I’ll do my best to assist you.

       User
       Is this a great time to invest in artificial intelligence, like all the hype in the lame stream media suggests?

       ChatGPT
       Investing in artificial intelligence (AI) can be appealing due to its potential to disrupt various industries and drive innovation. However, it’s essential to approach such investments with caution and conduct thorough research. While AI has seen significant advancements and is expected to continue growing, it’s important to consider factors such as the specific companies or sectors involved, their competitive advantages, the sustainability of their business models, and potential regulatory or ethical considerations.

       The “hype” surrounding AI in the media may not always accurately reflect the reality of investment opportunities. It’s crucial to analyze the fundamentals of any investment and consider factors beyond just media hype. Diversification and a long-term perspective are also important principles to keep in mind when investing in any emerging technology sector. Consulting with a financial advisor can also provide valuable guidance tailored to your individual investment goals and risk tolerance.

       User
       Can you see my eyes rolling?

       ChatGPT
       As an AI language model, I don’t have the ability to see or perceive anything, so I can’t see your eyes rolling. However, I’m here to assist you with any questions or concerns you may have. If there’s anything else you’d like to discuss or inquire about, please feel free to let me know!

       ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.

       1. Financial Times
          Commercial property
          US office building losses hit Japanese lender Aozora
          Bank’s shares fall more than 20% after it warns more commercial property loans could turn sour
          Chicago skyline
          Aozora’s highest financial exposure, in terms of non-performing loans in the US, is to the city of Chicago
          Leo Lewis and David Keohane in Tokyo 4 hours ago

          Japan’s Aozora Bank blamed souring office loans in the US as it forecast its first full-year loss since 2009, in a sign of the rising stress in the American commercial property market.

          Shares in Aozora fell by their maximum limit on Thursday after the midsized bank projected a full-year loss on overseas real estate loans and warned that it would take as much as two years for the US office market to stabilise.

          Aozora’s profit warning echoed the previous day’s announcement by New York Community Bancorp, which said it had lost $260mn in the final three months of 2023. The lender, which had bought the failed Signature Bank during last year’s regional banking turmoil, said the expected losses were related to US office building loans.
          …

    6. It will take years for the oil and gas market to recover from the ‘mother of all shocks,’ Harvard economist says
       Jennifer Sor
       Jan 31, 2024, 8:53 AM PST

       – Oil and gas prices are on a rollercoaster caused by the “mother of all shocks,” a Harvard economist says.

       – Energy prices have seen wild swings since the pandemic and the impact is still being felt.

       – “When there is an energy shock, it can take a huge price change to clear the market,” Rogoff said.

       Oil and gas prices are stuck on a roller coaster caused by the “mother of all shocks,” as the supply-demand imbalance from the pandemic is still roiling energy markets, according to top economist Kenneth Rogoff.

       The Harvard professor and former International Monetary Fund chief economist pointed to the wild ride oil and gas prices have taken over the last few years, with energy prices plunging at the wake of the pandemic and skyrocketing when Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.

       Brent crude plunged as low as $14 a barrel in 2020 before soaring to a peak of $133 a barrel in June 2022. Similar swings were seen in US gas prices, which plunged to a low of $1.77 a gallon in 2020 before peaking around $5 a gallon in 2022, according to the Energy Information .

       Energy prices have eased in recent months, with Brent trading around $80 a barrel and gas prices cooling to around $3 a gallon. That’s largely due to fears of a coming recession in the US and the potential impact on demand.
       …
       https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gas-oil-prices-outlook-supply-shock-us-production-crude-forecast-2024-1

       1. “Energy prices have eased in recent months, with Brent trading around $80 a barrel and gas prices cooling to around $3 a gallon. That’s largely due to fears of a coming recession in the US and the potential impact on demand.”

          A depression in China has nothing to do with it. LOL!

18. Ok, so at one time Whites were 33% of World population. WHITES are down to under 16 % of globe population, and under 10% by 2060.
    SO, WHITES are a global minority race.
    While US still has a slightly higher majority of WHITES, that’s sinking fast.
    So, WHITES kinda sound like a breed that’s going extinct actually.
    How can WHITES be the culprits against minorities, when globally WHITES are a
    minority!

19. Mob of Illegals Beat Up NYPD Officers

    by Dan Lyman
    January 31st 2024, 1:13 pm

    Illegal aliens were arrested and released without bail after a mob attacked police officers in New York City over the weekend, according to reports.

    The shocking incident unfolded at around 8:30 p.m. on Saturday night in Manhattan.

    A pair of New York Police Department (NYPD) officers approached a group of people loitering near Times Square and told them to disperse or gather elsewhere.

    Members of the group initially began walking away but suddenly a melee broke out as officers attempted to apprehend one of the men for unknown reasons.

    NYPD released surveillance footage of the ensuing brawl.

    Approximately a dozen people can be seen swarming the officers as they wrestle with the primary suspect on the ground.

    Multiple assailants deliver punches and kicks to the officers’ bodies and heads before they all flee the scene.

    Four suspects were quickly arrested, charged with assault, and released without bail, according to the New York Post.

    A fifth suspect was apprehended on Monday and charged with attempted assault of a police officer.

    All have been identified as “asylum seekers” ranging in age between 19 and 24 years old.

    One of the suspects already has two open cases against him in Manhattan for assault and robbery.

    NYPD NEWS
    @NYPDnews

    🚨WANTED for ASSAULT: on 1/27 at approx. 8:30 PM, individuals kicked & punched police officers in the head & body when officers were effecting an arrest in front of 220 W 42nd Street. The individuals fled on foot towards 7th Ave. Any info? DM or call
    @nypdtips
    at 800-577-TIPS.

    Jan 30, 2024

    https://x.com/NYPDnews/status/1752468029022056835?s=20

    1. This is why we call military aged men streaming across our border “invaders”, because that is what they are.

       And it is interesting how quickly they learn to game the system. They already knew that NYPD officers wouldn’t shoot them, even if they were assaulted. I’m sure Hizzonor the mayor has told the top brass that no one is to lay a finger on the invaders, no matter what they do.

20. ‘So, in 2023 we have a very large number of complete and unsold homes, a great selection for buyers out there’

    Sux to be you Andy.

21. ‘During the pandemic to now, those same homes are selling for double. ‘This one sold for $745,000,’ Harward said, pointing to a home. ‘It felt like a piranha feeding frenzy,’ said Harward’

    ‘A frenzy that appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist describes as the most ‘aggressive housing market’ he’s ever seen. Lundquist’s data shows while the market steadily grew for nine years before the pandemic, it was nothing compared to growth between March 2020 and May 2022. During those two short years, the median price of a home increased in our region by 42%, Lundquist says’

    Hi Ryan. Ben Jones with the HBB. How did these shacks appraise for that huge increase AFTER 9 years of steady growth?

22. ‘a stark contrast from just two or three years ago, when favorable migration patterns, rent growth and low borrowing costs led to a boom in investment. Bidding wars broke out across the region, and properties changed hands at unsustainable prices’…Meanwhile, a slew of developer bets, supported by pro-development policies, led to an oversupply problem. ‘If you let developers build, what will they do? They’re going to build, build, build until they overbuild’

    That’s what they usually do Kyle, but it’s different this time. When Mel Watt said pedal to the metal about lending at the FHFA, he was talking about multifamily. And he and obammie did that. It never stopped. So you have to add in 15+ years of pedal to the metal yuuge money sloshing around to ‘they’re going to build, build, build until they overbuild.’

23. ‘a casino patron brought in $80,000 in strapped $100 bills from a reusable grocery bag. ‘Surveillance showed that once the money was counted and confirmed, the patron left the table with casino chips without playing at that time’…The AGCO alleges that although Fallsview had identified the player as ‘high risk,’ it did not notify the regulator and on-site police as required. As well, the regulator says, Fallsview ‘failed to take any meaningful steps to ascertain and corroborate the patron’s source of funds’ — thereby failing to follow anti-money-laundering rules. The company said it ‘respectfully’ disagrees with the AGCO’s decision and will be appealing it, it said in an emailed statement. In 2022, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police announced charges related to an investigation that began in 2017 ‘about a potential money laundering scheme that was operating through casinos in the GTA and Niagara regions’

    My understanding is this is a new mafia push in the GTA. K-da REIC is full of crooks, I’ve come to believe.

24. ‘This improvement in activity will support sales volumes which, at one million, reached an eleven year low in 2023. We don’t see these trends as a precursor to higher prices in 2024 as it remains a buyer’s market. Over-optimism by sellers could quickly stall the current improvement in market activity’

    That’s the spirit Dick, keep up the good work!

25. ‘‘We are pretty sure we have lost everything,’ one investor said. ‘There is a group of people in the same situation. Some have lost their own properties with banks coming at them to reclaim unpaid loans. Relationships have broken down.’ Some investors told The West Australian they were taken out on Mr Hirsch’s luxury motor boat before committing to their investment’

    Those sunset nose candy runs can be expensive investor.

26. ‘The point to grasp is that Evergrande’s latest setback will not trigger a financial crisis in China; it is rather the result of the financial crisis which has been deepening for at least four years’

    It’s much more important to understand what is happening right now than to predict the future.

    1. t is rather the result of the financial crisis which has been deepening for at least four years’

       Yesterday I spoke to a Chinese college student coming to the US to finish her Sr. Year. I asked her about the job situation for recent college grads in China and she confirmed that, based on her experience and her friends, the job market “is not good.”

27. The wall of lies is crumbling.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/south-australia-state-government-employer-ordered-to-pay-compensation-to-public-servant-for-covid19-vaccine-injury/news-story/df4368a86fa40d1e786963ffccc25f97

28. GTA Condo Real Estate Update – Be Careful For Desperate Sellers
    Team Sessa Real Estate
    35 minutes ago
    In this episode we take a look at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Markham, Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering. We also look at market trends for week ending January 24, 2023. We also discuss how some sellers will use false claims to draw in potential buyers.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3DME6rOo_w

    15:14.

29. Is the Year of the Dragon looking to be a good one?

    1. HOMEPAGE
       Economy
       China’s economy is facing a nightmarish Year of the Dragon
       George Glover
       Jan 30, 2024, 6:55 AM ET
       Evergrande buildings in Nanjing, in East China’s Jiangsu province.
       NurPhoto/Getty Images

       – Chinese property developer Evergrande was ordered to liquidate Monday by a Hong Kong judge.

       – The real-estate giant’s collapse could mean a difficult year for the world’s second-largest economy.

       – Beijing is also struggling to stave off deflation and arrest a stock-market slump.
       …
       https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-evergrande-property-collapse-deflation-weak-growth-xi-jinping-2024-1

    2. Yahoo
       Bloomberg
       Global Fund Exodus From China Stocks Hits Record Sixth Month
       Bloomberg News
       Wed, January 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM PST·1 min read

       (Bloomberg) — Foreign investors have been relentlessly selling China’s onshore equities into the new year as traders grow impatient over the lack of stronger policy support for the country’s economy and stock market.

       Global funds offloaded 14.5 billion yuan ($2 billion) worth of shares on a net basis in January via trading links with Hong Kong, extending their selling to a record sixth month, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. That brings the total amount of stocks sold since August to 201 billion yuan.

       A plethora of concerns including China’s property woes, the absence of forceful measures from authorities and jitters over any spillover from derivatives known as snowballs have dented accumulated inflows into A-shares since 2017, which have pared to about 1.6 trillion yuan. That has weighed on the onshore benchmark, which was down more than 6% in January, capping a record sixth month of losses.

       READ: Here’s What China Is Doing to Boost Economy, Rescue Markets
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-fund-exodus-china-stocks-230000465.html

    3. Yahoo
       Bloomberg
       Global Fund Exodus From China Stocks Hits Record Sixth Month
       Bloomberg News
       Wed, January 31, 2024 at 3:00 PM PST·1 min read

       (Bloomberg) — Foreign investors have been relentlessly selling China’s onshore equities into the new year as traders grow impatient over the lack of stronger policy support for the country’s economy and stock market.
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-fund-exodus-china-stocks-230000465.html

    4. Is yet another hair-of-the-dog cure what’s needed to cure China’s property binge hangover?

       Good luck with that plan…it’s all they got.

       1. China unveils new property support measures amid concerns about Evergrande fallout
          By Clare Jim and Liangping Gao
          January 31, 2024 2:56 AM PST
          Updated a day ago
          A man works at a construction site of apartment buildings in Beijing, China, July 15, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
          HONG KONG/BEIJING, Jan 31 (Reuters)

          A state-backed property project in China has received the first development loan under a so-called whitelist mechanism and two more major cities have eased home-buying curbs, state media reported, as concerns mount about the liquidation of Evergrande.

          The latest measures add to a string of policies deployed by the world’s second-largest economy over the past year to help revive the property sector, which accounts for a quarter of China’s GDP and has been hit by an unprecedented debt crisis after a regulatory crackdown on the sector’s high leverage.

          Despite those measures, the property market ended last year with the worst declines in new home prices in nearly nine years, casting a shadow over hopes of broader economic recovery and renewing investor demands for stronger policy initiatives.

          Analysts say a Hong Kong court placing property giant China Evergrande Group into liquidation could worsen the demand outlook as homebuyers take a cautious approach given uncertainty about the health of other private developers.

          Two of China’s major cities, Suzhou and Shanghai, followed Guangzhou in easing home-buying restrictions, official media reported on Tuesday, in an effort to boost demand from homebuyers.

          Investors were not excited by the new support, however, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index and China’s CSI 300 Real Estate Index falling 2.1% and 2.5%, respectively, on Wednesday.

          In another support measure, a loan worth 330 million yuan ($46 million) to a state-backed development was approved just a few working days after the government announced the “project whitelist” mechanism, the official Securities Times reported on Wednesday.

          Under the mechanism, city governments should provide a list of local property projects suitable for financing support, and coordinate with local financial institutions to meet the financing needs of these projects.

          Securities Times said Nanning city in Guangxi region had provided its first “project whitelist” to local financial firms containing 107 developments. A project by state-backed Guangxi Beitou Industry & City Investment Group was granted a development loan from China Mingsheng Banking Corp.

          The southwestern city of Chongqing also has come up with a whitelist of 314 projects, with a total of 83 billion yuan in financing required, according to the official Wechat account of the city’s housing authorities.

          The first batch of projects on that whitelist include those by private developers Longfor Group (0960.HK), opens new tab and Huayu Group, as well as state-backed Cina Vanke, the authorities added. The three property firms are deemed by the market as financial healthy.

          The rollout of funding support under this mechanism is being closely watched by a market reeling from a debt crisis since mid-2021 which resulted in unfinished homes and defaults, especially among privately owned developers.

          Many analysts expect it will take a long time for the property market to stabilise.
          …
          https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-issues-first-development-loan-under-project-whitelist-mechanism-media-2024-01-31/

    5. Macro Matters
       China’s factory activity shrinks again, weak demand hobbles economy
       Reuters
       January 30, 2024 6:39 PM PST
       Updated a day ago
       Leapmotor’s EV production line in Jinhua
       Robotic arms assemble cars in the production line for Leapmotor’s electric vehicles at a factory in Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, April 26, 2023.
       China Daily via REUTERS/File Photo

       BEIJING, Jan 31 (Reuters) – China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month in January, an official factory survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting the sprawling sector and the broader economy were struggling to regain momentum at the start of 2024.

       The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 49.2 in January from 49.0 in December, driven by a rise in output but still below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. It was in line with a median forecast of 49.2 in a Reuters poll.
       …
       https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-factory-activity-shrinks-again-jan-demand-still-weak-2024-01-31/

30. Comment for Jeff:

    The wire pull was successful. 2-1/2″ EMT at 360 max bends, but it went. Shutdown and installation of new 200 amp main breaker in the gear scheduled for tomorrow.

    1. Nice job. goodluck mañana.

31. Video Shows Migrants at the Atlanta Airport

    Jan 31, 2024

    9 Comments

    @jeffcooper9363
    5 hours ago
    “Recently documented travelers…” Who need to be guarded by Army personell?

    @robert4212
    2 hours ago
    Why does he have a drill instructor cover on? Can anyone identify his patch?

    @markhall9990
    4 hours ago
    Why the secrecy??

    https://youtu.be/m35rEy7c-64?si=ayumaZKGuwBg8Asa

32. House Prices Are Plummeting in San Francisco
    Published Jan 31, 2024 at 9:35 AM EST
    Updated Jan 31, 2024 at 9:35 AM EST
    By Giulia Carbonaro
    US News Reporter

    The city of San Francisco continues to report some of the biggest price drops in the entire country, with condos downtown being sold for thousands of dollars less than they were purchased years ago, according to Zillow adverts.

    The average San Francisco home value was $1,216,087 as of December 31, down 5.6 percent from a year before, according to data from Zillow. Redfin writes that the median sale price of a home in the city dropped even lower, down 7.6 percent from a year before. The median sale price per square foot in San Francisco is $874, down 3.8 percent compared to a year before, according to the company.

    Home prices in the city have been plummeting since reaching a peak of $1,449,470 in May 2022, with the exception of September 2023, when they saw a modest month-on-month increase from $1,226,112 to $1,228,976, according to Zillow. Since then, they have continued falling consistently until the end of December, the latest data available.
    …
    https://www.newsweek.com/house-prices-are-plummeting-san-francisco-1865601

    1. There were a LOT of wealthy all-cash Chinese real estate investors pouring money into San Francisco just a few years ago.

       Just sayin’…

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