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Buyers Will Not Purchase Properties At Market Price Nowadays

A report from the Naples Daily News Florida. “A year-end report by the Naples Area Board of Realtors that tracks resales in Collier County, excluding Marco Island, tells a big part of the story. ‘Rapid market advancement stopped in early 2022. On average, it takes 12 to 24 months for the market to readjust. What we are seeing now are more sellers accepting that this phase is over,’ said Cindy Carroll, with Carroll & Carroll Appraisers & Consultants LLC. She noted there was a nearly 30% increase in the number of price decreases reported in 2023. Here’s a look at some of the statistics for 2023, in comparison to 2022: The total number of sales fell 13.6% to 8,816. The inventory of homes rose by 45.9% to 3,949 at year end. The average number of days on market increased by 100% to 54.”

Vail Daily in Colorado. “The local real estate market saw a seasonal dip in home sales in January, as is typical at the beginning of the year. Last month, 58 homes sold, a 22% decrease from the 74 homes that sold in December 2023. The median sale price was $1.36 million, down from $2.31 million. The median list price was $1.46 million in January.”

The Tahoe Daily Tribune on Nevada. “The period between February and May 2024 might just be the optimal time to make your move in the Incline Village and Crystal Bay real estate market. Recent data points towards a potential turning point, signaling that the anticipated post-pandemic price adjustments have finally materialized. While our market didn’t experience as sharp declines as others, many prospective buyers have been cautiously observing, waiting for signs of a market bottom. The influx of investors seeking cash-flowing Airbnbs led to an equity bump and increased sales activity in 2020-2022. Now, with the decline in short-term rental occupancy rates, some property owners may find themselves in a precarious financial position, potentially needing to sell to avoid financial strain (not to mention all the insurance woes happening with the local HOAs).”

The Real Deal on California. “Harvest Partners and AXA Investment Managers have surrendered a 15-story office building near Downtown Oakland, with their troubled $95 million loan set to be sold to the highest bidder. An unidentified lender has seized control of the 279,700-square-foot building at 180 Grand Avenue near Adams Point, and is marketing the ‘nonperforming’ loan, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. This week, the $95 million loan backing the property hit the market and is set to be sold, with the unidentified lender seeking to recoup the unpaid debt. The loan sale will allow a new owner to take over the property via a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure — where the property owners surrender the building to skirt the foreclosure process. It also means that the building’s value has likely dropped below the value of its debt, according to the Chronicle.”

“The property is the latest caught in the maturing debt vortex that has dragged down the commercial real estate sector, leaving many owners and investors upside down. Oakland’s central core business district, including Downtown, Uptown and Lake Merritt, now has record office vacancies, reported at 35.7 percent in June. Office landlords in Oakland have started to slash rents, after holding steady through the pandemic shift to remote work.”

From Bisnow. “Arbor Realty Trust’s leadership appeared to calm market jitters Friday with an earnings report it characterized as ‘another outstanding quarter’ despite a rise in nonperforming loans and continued attacks from short sellers. The multifamily lender with a $12.6B portfolio ended Q4 with a net income of $91.7M, or 48 cents per share, compared to net income of $88.2M, or 49 cents per share, in Q4 2022, according to the earnings report. The company seems to be preparing for potential trouble, boosting its provisions for loan losses to almost $196M. Arbor also recorded four new nonperforming loans for the quarter, bringing its number of nonperforming loans to 16 valued at a total of $262.7M at the end of the year, up from 12 loans valued at $150.5M at the end of Q3.”

“‘Everybody in the market, whether it’s Arbor or others, are worried about that late ’21, early ’22 vintage, given where rates, cap rates and attachment points were,’ said Stephen Laws, a managing director for Raymond James and an Arbor stock analyst. ‘We’re experiencing elevated delinquencies,’ said Arbor CEO Ivan Kaufman. ‘One of the many reasons this is occurring is certain borrowers are taking the position that they will default first and negotiate second, which is not a strategy that works well with us.’ The Arbor executive said the trust isn’t afraid of having defaults on its books, and the threat isn’t the fruitful negotiation tactic it might be with other lenders. ‘Borrowers need to bring capital to the table to rightsize their deals and raising capital is a lengthy process in today’s climate,’ Kaufman said, adding that Arbor expected to see an initial jump in defaults as borrowers struggle to recapitalize properties.”

From CBC News. “A Vancouver Island couple is worried about losing their home after being hit with an unexpected tax bill. Madison and Charlotte Becerra have received letters from the B.C. government indicating that under the rules of the speculation and vacancy tax, they must pay $13,000 by July 1 on their home in Ladysmith, B.C. The couple bought their detached home two years ago and live in it year-round, but because they are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents, they cannot apply for an exemption from the tax. This is the first year the vacancy tax has applied to Ladysmith, which is approximately 70 kilometres north of Victoria.”

“The couple has roughly five months to pay before the province puts a lien on their house and charges a 10 per cent late fee on the bill, as well as interest. ‘Having to pay that tax would wipe us out — we just don’t have the money to be able to afford it,’ said Madison Becerra. Madison says they pay property tax on their home, as well as B.C. and Canadian income tax. ‘We pay our taxes, we do everything we can, you know, we’re trying to be the best B.C. residents that we can be,’ she said. ‘This idea that we’re not paying our fair share seems incredibly unfair.'”

Cornwall Live in the UK. “”The cheapest postcodes to buy a house in Cornwall during 2023 have been revealed. According to official Land Registry data, the likes of Camborne, Redruth and Bodmin remain up there with the most affordable places to buy alongside seven other locations. Meanwhile, the Lizard peninsula area has seen the largest drop in average house prices for 2023 with a decrease of more than 20 per cent on prices the previous year. In TR12 – covering the Lizard, where prices have dropped significantly – the average home cost £419,496, which is an annual decrease of 22.1 per cent. The Marazion area saw the largest decrease of 27.7 per cent but only saw seven houses sell compared to the Lizard’s 68, skewing the average.”

News.com.au in Australia. “Customers have been left high and dry after their building company went bust and tradies rushed out to strip their sites bare. Earlier this month, news.com.au revealed that DC Living Pty Ltd, trading under the names Living Homes VIC and Living Homes QLD, went into administration. The builder, headquartered in Brisbane, had undertaken more than $10 million worth of construction work since July and had at least 29 active sites on its books, according to the Queensland Building and Construction Commission. One customer, Jamie*, who preferred not to share his last name, said there is ‘no end in sight’ despite he and his partner first signing a building contract two years ago in the hopes they would by now be living in their dream home.”

“In another blow to the homeowner, less than 24 hours after DC Living went bust, the fencing and the skip bin was ripped out of his building site, as frustrated tradies tried to reduce their losses. ‘Basically we found out on the Friday that they (DC Living) had gone under,’ Jamie told news.com.au. ‘We were like ‘Oh my god.’ Then over the weekend, the tradies came and took their stuff back from his site, leaving some rubbish behind in the process. What Jamie finds particularly galling is that less than two weeks before DC Living went under, he had made a substantial progress payment to the builder which was nearly six figures.”

“‘We made a payment to DC Living less than two weeks ago for close to $100,000, for the completion of a build stage which they advised was complete,’ he explained. But he found that ‘the stage is not actually complete once we were able to visit the site and see for ourselves.’ He now has to rely on the long and onerous process of receiving last resort insurance to pay for the rest of his build. Signs such as ‘pay up ya flog’ have adorned the site of at least one DC Living build that news.com.au knows of.”

“Ashton Close, a tradie who has been left $26,775 out of pocket over the debacle, said ‘it’s a disgrace.’ The brick renderer estimates that he’s worked at 133 sites in total during the four-year period that his business did work for DC Living. ‘They’ve dragged the chain on paying us, they’ve said they need an extra couple of weeks,’ Mr Close told news.com.au. ‘Before Christmas we were just getting the run-around. They’ve stung us about $26,000. It hurts, it definitely hurts.'”

From Bloomberg. “South Korea’s five largest financial companies are facing about 1 trillion won ($749 million) of losses from their 20 trillion won of overseas real estate investments, according to an opposition party lawmaker, reflecting growing concern over the sector’s exposure to falling valuations worldwide. The potential for the US commercial real estate downturn causing trouble in Korea got hammered home earlier this year, when Tokyo-based Aozora Bank Ltd. stunned the market by setting aside large provisions for bad loans even after assuring investors that it was adequately prepared.”

South China Morning Post. “Hong Kong’s luxury home segment which has been hit by a wave of deep discounts in the backdrop of soaring interest rates and macroeconomic turbulence, has shown early signs of stability as bottom fishing has emerged in one of the world’s priciest real estate market. The city’s luxury property prices fell by around 8 per cent in 2023, and 15 per cent from the peak in July 2018, according to CBRE. A three-storey detached house located at 15 Moorsom, Jardine’s Lookout with an area of about 3,154 sq ft and two parking spaces, has been put up for sale at a 17 per cent discount, according to Savills Hong Kong, who have been appointed property agents for that sale.”

“The asking price has been lowered to HK$190 million from HK$230 million by the owners, a local business family, according to Thomas See, senior associate director, investment CEO office of Savills. ‘The reduction in prices are due to reasons like high interest rate and macroeconomic uncertainties,’ See said on Monday, adding that discounted prices are an emerging trend as ‘buyers will not purchase properties at market price nowadays and they will show more interest to those which are below.'”

From Barron‘s. “As China ushers in the Year of the Wood Dragon, one of the most propitious zodiac signs, a new reality is setting in: No amount of good fortune will return its economy to prepandemic shape. The country is struggling to emerge from its worst economic period in 40 years. Consumer confidence has plummeted, Beijing is focused not just on growth but also on security and stability, and global companies and investors are bracing for slower gains. And the Chinese property market, which accounts for a fifth of economic activity and is the biggest store of household wealth, is entering its fourth year of a painful contraction that has left households in some cities with as much as 30% declines in their property prices. On top of that, millions of Chinese consumers are paying mortgages on prepaid homes yet to be completed, according to Autonomous Research senior analyst Charlene Chu.”

“‘A malaise has set in,’ says Rick Waters, a former U.S. State Department veteran who now heads the China practice at risk consultancy Eurasia Group. ‘There is a fundamental reset of expectations of the future—and about whether people’s children will be better off.’ Chinese consumer confidence sits at multidecade lows. Foreign direct investment into China turned negative last year for the first time in decades, and China’s stock market has lost $6 trillion in market value as investors sour on China’s outlook and worry about signs that President Xi Jinping is tightening his grip on the economy.”

“Part of China’s troubles stem from the very sources that fueled its rapid growth over the past decades. After the 2008-09 global financial crisis, China’s economy roared back as authorities unleashed massive spending for an infrastructure and property building boom. Local governments were the conduit for much of the spending, writing checks and financing the debt with robust income from land sales. Even those with overseas degrees that formerly paved a way to a lucrative job are struggling to find suitable work. Caroline Gou, a 26-year-old in Sichuan province, couldn’t find a job in her field after returning with a master’s degree from Manchester University, and used family connections to find an office job as a stopgap. The challenges have scuttled her plans of purchasing property to secure her financial future. ‘It is impossible to afford a home almost anywhere in China without a company that gives really good benefits or lots of help from parents,’ she adds.”

“The country’s overcapacity and overproduction pose risks not just to China but also to rivals in these sectors abroad. Take solar panels. Beijing mandated that state-owned enterprises get half of their energy capacity from renewables by 2025, contributing to strong solar panel growth. But prices for solar inputs and panels have tumbled. Eurasia Group estimates that 60% to 70% of solar firms could face bankruptcy or acquisitions in the next couple of years, potentially saddling Beijing with another debt-laden sector.”

This Post Has 76 Comments
  1. ‘Here’s a look at some of the statistics for 2023, in comparison to 2022: The total number of sales fell 13.6% to 8,816. The inventory of homes rose by 45.9% to 3,949 at year end. The average number of days on market increased by 100% to 54’

    So you sold 8,816 shacks last year, you got 3,949 at year end but the average number of days on market is 54? UHS math. Obviously you guys are relisting, probably multiple times a year.

  2. ‘Having to pay that tax would wipe us out — we just don’t have the money to be able to afford it,’ said Madison Becerra. Madison says they pay property tax on their home, as well as B.C. and Canadian income tax. ‘We pay our taxes, we do everything we can, you know, we’re trying to be the best B.C. residents that we can be,’ she said. ‘This idea that we’re not paying our fair share seems incredibly unfair’

    Pay up ya flog!

  3. ‘Everybody in the market, whether it’s Arbor or others, are worried about that late ’21, early ’22 vintage, given where rates, cap rates and attachment points were’

    Yet again, when the loan was made is the key. Meaning at the peak.

    ‘One of the many reasons this is occurring is certain borrowers are taking the position that they will default first and negotiate second, which is not a strategy that works well with us…Borrowers need to bring capital to the table to rightsize their deals’

    Good luck with that Ivan. How do you like those non-recourse loans now?

    1. Which is why the Vi*g*a interest rates* is so deadly to these folks. When rates spiked up, they were hoping that rates would drop back down just in time to refi at 2% again. If interest rates stay near-constant for the next 3-4 years, that’s going to capture everybody that took out a loan since pre-pandemic. Sorry, suckers..

      ————–
      *higher for longer

      1. When I tell people that current interest rates are actually historically average and are not “high”, a look of horror appears on their faces.

  4. ‘The influx of investors seeking cash-flowing Airbnbs led to an equity bump and increased sales activity in 2020-2022. Now, with the decline in short-term rental occupancy rates, some property owners may find themselves in a precarious financial position, potentially needing to sell to avoid financial strain (not to mention all the insurance woes happening with the local HOAs)’

    Sound lending!

  5. ‘discounted prices are an emerging trend as ‘buyers will not purchase properties at market price nowadays and they will show more interest to those which are below’

    That’s the spirit Tom, keep up the good work!

    1. ChatGPT 3.5

      User
      ‘buyers will not purchase properties at market price nowadays and they will show more interest to those which are below’

      ChatGPT
      It’s true that buyers often seek properties priced below market value as they perceive them as better deals or opportunities for potential appreciation. This can be influenced by various factors such as market conditions, location, condition of the property, and individual buyer preferences.

      User
      What is market value?

      ChatGPT
      Market value is the estimated price at which a property would sell in a competitive market, given certain conditions such as a reasonable time frame for the sale, both the buyer and seller being well-informed, and neither being under pressure to buy or sell. It’s determined by factors like comparable sales in the area, current market trends, property condition, location, and other economic factors.

      User
      So if no buyers are willing to pay what a seller is asking for their home, then the seller’s asking price is above market value, right?

      ChatGPT
      Yes, that’s correct. If there are no buyers willing to pay the seller’s asking price for their home, it suggests that the asking price is likely above the market value. In such cases, the seller may need to adjust their price to align it with the current market conditions in order to attract potential buyers.

      User
      What do you mean by “likely above market value”?

      ChatGPT
      When I say “likely above market value,” I mean that based on the lack of buyer interest at the seller’s asking price, it suggests that the price is probably higher than what most buyers in the current market are willing to pay for similar properties. However, it’s not an absolute certainty; there could be other factors at play, such as unique features of the property or specific circumstances that are affecting buyer interest.

      User
      What you say doesn’t make sense.

      ChatGPT
      I apologize for any confusion. Let me clarify: if there are no buyers willing to pay the seller’s asking price for their home, it strongly suggests that the asking price is indeed above the market value.

      ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.

      ChatGPT

  6. Senior Canadian Legislator Tables Bill to Jail People Who Speak Out in Favour of Fossil Fuels

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/02/18/senior-canadian-legislator-tables-bill-to-jail-people-who-speak-out-in-favour-of-fossil-fuels/

    [While reading this article you need to become aware that the word “table” means the opposite in the US. Table, in British usage, it means to bring some issue up for discussion. In the US, it means to bury or set aside a bill.]

    A leading member of a Canadian centre-Left party supporting Justin Trudeau’s minority Government has tabled a bill seeking to jail people who speak out in favour of hydrocarbon fuels. Charlie Angus is a leading member of the NDP party which has 25 seats in the Canadian Parliament, and his bill seeks to ban the commercial promotion of hydrocarbons by any means “that is likely to influence and shape attitudes, beliefs and behaviours about the product or service”. Angus’s bill (C-372) is given the Orwellian title of ‘An Act respecting fossil fuel advertising’, and under this proposed anti-free speech measure, a gas station retailer could be fined C$50,000 for offering a complementary coffee and doughnut with every full tank.

    There is not much between Canada and the North Pole so without natural gas to heat their homes, the locals would likely die in their thousands during the winter. Without diesel trucks to transport food vast distances, famine would stalk the land. Yet Bill C-372 states in its preamble that “fossil fuel production and consumption has resulted in a national public health crisis of substantial and pressing concern, in a way that is similar to the public health crisis caused by tobacco consumption”. Smoking cigarettes is a voluntary and enjoyable pastime for some, but it has the unfortunate side-effect of causing death. Hydrocarbons keep people alive with power for clean sanitation, transport, domestic temperature control, food production and back-up for unreliable wind and solar power. Without hydrocarbon use, the only people able to live in most of Canada would be Eskimos huddled together for warmth in igloos.Under the bill there is a blanket ban on the promotion of oil and gas. A curious clause bans the suggestion that the burning of some hydrocarbons and the emissions caused are “less harmful” than other fossil fuels. This provision would make it illegal to state the scientific fact that burning natural gas produces less than half the carbon dioxide than the burning of coal. It would also be an offence to suggest that the use of hydrocarbons would lead to positive benefits for the environment, the health of Canadians and the global economy. Whatever the facts based in science or economic observation, all these ‘wrong’ thoughts can be punished with a C$500,000 fine and two years in prison.The bill’s attack on hydrocarbons is broad and even attempts to suppress sales at the retail level. Gas stations will be banned from issuing loyalty cards, cash rebates, tickets to prize draws and free gifts such as coffee and doughnuts.If this was just the work of a lone parliamentarian green crank, it would be easy to laugh and dismiss. It is a private member’s bill and will struggle to be passed into law, but its promoter is a major figure in the NDP, and his party currently holds political sway since it helps prop up the minority Trudeau Government. “We welcome the NDP’s bill to the House,” said Kaitlin Power, the Press Secretary of Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault. Speaking to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, she added: “We will carefully assess its bill and look forward to productive debates and discussions around this important issue.”The NDP bill is an attack on free commercial speech and seeks to demonise an industry that is vital to modern life. The belief that Canada, along with every other modern industrialised society, can remove hydrocarbon energy use within less than 30 years is a luxury, decadent affectation. It is the work of politicians with little understanding of science and the workings of a modern state. It fails to comprehend that life without hydrocarbons for 99.9% of people who have lived on planet Earth was hard, brutal and uncertain. Without reliable cheap fuel, all that ‘first generation to go university’ stuff will be replaced by working the land of the local warlord, or skivvying in his great house. It is the work of badly educated people who think they can outsource all their vital manufacturing to the emerging superpower of China, open their borders to all and sundry and squeeze the living conditions of existing residents, abolish traditional families, bend the knee to defund the police, or impose so many woke conditions they are unable to function properly, ditto external security services.It is the belief system of a cult that wants to impose a massive supra-national programme of deindustrialisation, and still peddle the fantasy that we will magically stay warm, delicious food will be available at the press of an iPhone, and everyone will live in peace and harmony. It is the belief system of people who live in Imagine, one of the great John Lennon’s sillier songs.

    1. Communism always results in terror, horror and death. Suckers support it because they think they will get something for nothing.

    2. So if you don’t follow the party line, you go to prison?

      Who would have ever expected that Canada would go the way of communist dictatorship?

    3. There is not much between Canada “and the North Pole so without natural gas to heat their homes, the locals would likely die in their thousands during the winter.”

      I recall that Stalin killed off many of his own citizens as Soviet divtator.

      1. Stalin was an ethnic Georgian. His NKVD regime protection force was comprised almost entirely of non-Slavs who had no problem killing and torturing millions of Russians.

  7. The total number of sales fell 13.6% to 8,816. The inventory of homes rose by 45.9% to 3,949 at year end. The average number of days on market increased by 100% to 54.”

    I don’t mean to get way out ahead of the HBB, but as I look at these statistics, it occurs to me that we may very well be looking at the incipient phase of a bursting housing bubble.

  8. Now, with the decline in short-term rental occupancy rates, some property owners may find themselves in a precarious financial position, potentially needing to sell to avoid financial strain (not to mention all the insurance woes happening with the local HOAs).”

    Die, speculator scum.

  9. I don’t know about you guys, but I am very interested in following the success (or failure) of the NYC trucker boycott.

    1. I’m sure the deep state has been scrambling to prepare for this. Perhaps transport the goods to New Jersey and the bring them across the final leg in smaller vehicles, maybe driven by illegals.

    2. TBH I don’t think they’re going to get enough boycotting truckers to make a dent. There are always people who will need the money from the job.

      [on a related note, this is the same reason that we still have men pretending to be women so they can beat the real women in sports. It’s very easy to say “If only ALLLL the women just refused to compete, that would stop it.” Oh, but you will never convince ALLLL the women to refuse to compete. These young ladies need to scholarship money, and if the price of a free college degree is coming in second place, then there will always be women — middling athletes but still athletes — who would do it, happily. I think even I might do it.]

  10. One customer, Jamie*, who preferred not to share his last name, said there is ‘no end in sight’ despite he and his partner first signing a building contract two years ago in the hopes they would by now be living in their dream home.”

    Just wondering: do any of these Aussie FBs ever put money down for a non-dream home, as in, just a humble but perfectly suitable abode to live out one’s days?

  11. “On top of that, millions of Chinese consumers are paying mortgages on prepaid homes yet to be completed, according to Autonomous Research senior analyst Charlene Chu.”

    I’ve heard of underwater mortgages, but what would you call these? Drought-stricken, perhaps? Collateral-free?

  12. “Customers have been left high and dry after their building company went bust and tradies rushed out to strip their sites bare.

    This scenario seems to be playing out every day in Australia, which begs the question of where are the regulators and inspectors in all this? They seem to be completely AWOL, if not captured and complicit in the wholesale rip-offs of customers. Until regulators, inspectors, auditors, and CEOs start getting sent to prison for criminal negligence, if not outright fraud, it seems that nothing is going to change.

  13. In TR12 – covering the Lizard, where prices have dropped significantly – the average home cost £419,496, which is an annual decrease of 22.1 per cent.

    But…but…muh generational wealth!

    1. If you are into options trading, here might be a way to cook up a portfolio that lets you synthetically create the position you want. Roughly speaking, you buy your S&P500 fund in combination with at-the-money puts on the implied numbers of Magnificent Seven shares in your S&P500 position. Then if the Magnificent Seven shares CR8R, the losses can be offset by cashing out the options.

  14. ‘It is impossible to afford a home almost anywhere in China without a company that gives really good benefits or lots of help from parents,’ she adds.”

    Heckova job, central planners and central bankers. At what point does the inability to buy a home or start a family become the catalyst for anti-government disaffection and social unrest?

    1. Meanwhile the CCP simply cannot convince the women to have children. From what I have read many, if not most, are not even interested in dating. Same in Japan and Korea.

      Imagine that, the policies make family formation next to economically impossible and they wonder why families are not being formed.

        1. Partially, but I think it’s more economic. You can’t fit three children into a 1-bed skyscraper flat, assuming the man can afford the flat. Having parents in the home is not conducive to making babies.

          But outside of that, yeah, it seems that cheap college and social media have made women uppity and naturally resist the idea that their only value is in making babies.

          1. “Homemaker is the ultimate career. All other careers exist for one purpose only — to support the ultimate career!”

            C.S. Lewis

  15. Real Journalists clutch those pearls harder.

    Washington Post — Sinclair’s recipe for TV news: Crime, homelessness, illegal drugs (2/16/2024):

    “Every year, local television news stations owned by Sinclair Broadcasting conduct short surveys among viewers to help guide the year’s coverage.

    A key question in each poll, according to David Smith, the company’s executive chairman: “What are you most afraid of?”

    The answers are evident in Sinclair’s programming. Crime, homelessness, illegal drug use, failing schools and other societal ills have long been core elements of local TV news coverage. But on Sinclair’s growing nationwide roster of stations, the editorial focus reflects Smith’s conservative views and plays on its audience’s fears that America’s cities are falling apart, according to media observers, Smith associates, and current and former staffers who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal company matters.

    Smith, an enthusiastic supporter of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump who has built Sinclair into one of the largest television station operators in the country, purchased the Baltimore Sun last month. In a private meeting with the Sun’s journalists, he urged them to emulate coverage at the local Sinclair station, Fox45, which in 2021 produced a documentary titled simply “Baltimore Is Dying.”

    Sinclair’s local network of 185 stations across the country makes it an influential player in shaping the views of millions of Americans, especially at a time when local newspapers are rapidly being gutted — or closed altogether.

    As Sinclair increasingly fills the void, it offers its viewers a perspective that aligns with Trump’s oft-stated opinion that America’s cities, especially those run by Democratic politicians, are dangerous and dysfunctional.

    “Sinclair stations deliver messages that appeal to older, White, suburban audiences, and they play up crime stories in a way that is disproportionate to their statistical presence,” said Anne Nelson, a journalist and author of “Shadow Network: Media, Money and the Secret Hub of the Radical Right.” “All of it is fearmongering and feeds into a racialized view of cities.”

    https://archive.is/1faJo

    Turn off the TeeVee, peasants. Listen to Paul Krugman tell you how good you have it.

    1. I live in Ken Buck’s district. Good riddance, RINO. That said, his replacement candidate will be selected in a caucus, not a primary, so we might get another RINO.

      1. The El Paso county GOP is bought and paid for by its developer patrons, so not surprisingly, Colorado Springs went blue given how out of touch the Conservative, Inc. RINOs were with the concerns of the electorate. The Democrat mayor, a Nigerian immigrant, is a businessman who is probably more in tune with the local business community than the previous developer toadies were, and isn’t a loony leftist like his counterparts in Denver.

        1. No one is stopping them from opening the doors to their homes and taking the invaders in.

          No, what they want is for someone else to do the dirty work. with everyone else’s resources and money.

        2. I didn’t know that the Salvation Army was getting gov money.

          The lady they interviewed said “Our faith tells us to help. Welcome the stranger, feed the hungry, provide shelter… So for the city to be telling us not to help, was just beyond what we could stand.”

          Notice how smoothly she wants to spend other people’s money. The councilman was pretty clear “Help if you want, but look at your own resources.”

    1. On one hand they whine about low birth rates and “demographic time bombs”, but then EVERY single policy they implement is hostile to family formation. Even counting on the baby mommas to have them out of wedlock isn’t working, the birth rates just keep dropping.

  16. A reader sent these in:

    Mesa Public Schools to eliminate 385 positions for the 2024-2025 school year – including hundreds of teachers and staff.

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1759384132344230139

    Buying conditions in the housing market has collapsed
    Current levels have NEVER been seen since 1960

    https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1759257718601204205

    Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2013
    This is now starting to look scary

    https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1759238846108291122

    The chance of a recession in 2024 is currently at levels ONLY seen 2 times in 60+ years
    Both ended in severe recessions
    This time is not different

    https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1759219970003624152

    44% of Americans can’t pay an unexpected $1,000 expense from savings. ‘We’re just not wired to save,’ expert says

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1759376718589030676

    Evergrande’s dollar bond is now worth less than two cents

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1759329304926658611

    My issue with the soft landing fallacy is simple. Inflation and growth are very inter-related. But their causality is not stable. Any statistics literate trader/analyst knows and has struggled with this (implication are important). Usually it’s a two-way causality, but this seems to be strongly influenced by inflation regime shifts. When inflation shifts materially higher, it starts to become a much more important growth driver.

    For al the fantasies about Bidenomics, it’s nothing more than inflation fueled growth, wrapped in lots of PR.

    This is not trivial and it pertains to structural economic regime shifts, so it’s not surprising that it flies above many heads as most models/analysis are cyclical.

    Given growth priority of a dying political regime / system in the US, and a vital necessity to service an exploding federal debt (you need growth to sustain growing tax collections) there is an upward inflation bias, almost a system survival necessity.

    Dilettante eyes attribute this to short-term absence of fiscal discipline and election economics, but the issue is much deeper.

    All this to say, there is now an embedded upward inflation drift coded into the system. That’s where the second wavers get their obsession from.

    But banter economics aside, there is only one way out of this: crash it down.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1759164746849296704

    crypto cockroaches crawling back out of their holes… hmm… this cockiness been unmistakable signal in the past

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1759182191307694524

    WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO HOUSING?

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1691781330659344867

    Biden Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the U.S. will “borrow $760 billion in the first quarter”

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1755684763191464331

    Fears of a systemic credit event are growing among fund managers as alarms sound in property markets around the world

    https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1758957598492000373

    1. Fears of a systemic credit event are growing among fund managers as alarms sound in property markets around the world

      Peerless prognosticator Janet Yellen assured us back in 2017 that there would be no new financial crisis “in our time” thanks to the Fed’s wise stewardship of the economy and financial system. So let’s just get back to spending with wild abandon while running up debt that can never be repaid, because that’s how we roll in ‘Murica.

    2. Biden Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the U.S. will “borrow $760 billion in the first quarter”

      So, a 3 trillion deficit? That’s $10,000 per every adult and child in the country. Ten grand. That would be 40 grand for a family of four, about half of what that average family earns in a year.

      I don’t know exactly how this will end, but hyperinflation is likely to be in the mix.

    3. As the old lessons are increasingly forgotten, inflation becomes the only politically correct answer and anyone who doesn’t support it will be cast as a villain. We can already see the process unfolding as the calls for free money get louder and louder and the amounts called for get bigger and bigger.

    4. Mesa Public Schools to eliminate 385 positions for the 2024-2025 school year – including hundreds of teachers and staff.

      My teacher relative in North Carolina tells me that at her school the invaders’ kids are now a non trivial percentage of the school’s population.

      I’m not sure how schools are funded in her neck of the woods. But I suspect that a harsh recession with falling shack prices will leave a dent.

  17. Do you worry the euphoria driving stocks higher may not last if interest rates remain higher for longer?

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Bloomberg
      ‘Peak Euphoria’ Warning Blares as Stress Vanishes on Wall Street
      Lu Wang and Isabelle Lee
      Fri, Feb 16, 2024, 1:38 PM PST
      5 min read
      In this article:

      (Bloomberg) — Remember, this wasn’t supposed to happen.

      The era of tight money – and an uncertain inflation trajectory — threatened to deliver a big reckoning on Wall Street and beyond, after a debt bonanza for more than a decade.

      And sure, pain came as promised. Who can ignore the fresh woes for regional banks and commercial real estate in recent weeks, or forget the double-digit plunges in 2022 across bonds, stocks, speculative tech, and more.

      Yet for all these pockets of interest rate-driven stress, financial markets as a whole have weathered the monetary storm — with key risk-taking measures evoking the euphoric days of easy money.

      Even after two higher-than-expected inflation readings that prompted bond traders to reassess the timing of the first Federal Reserve rate cut, the S&P 500 remains near recent records, down just 0.4% for the week.

      Thank the enduring artificial-intelligence boom — and a US economy that continues to roar ahead while recession stalks the UK, other parts of Europe and Japan.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peak-euphoria-warning-blares-stress-213820188.html

    2. ChatGPT 3.5

      User
      Thank the enduring artificial-intelligence boom — and a US economy that continues to roar ahead while recession stalks the UK, other parts of Europe and Japan.

      ChatGPT
      Yes, the enduring artificial intelligence boom has certainly played a significant role in propelling the US economy forward, especially in comparison to regions like the UK, parts of Europe, and Japan, which have been facing recessionary pressures.

      User
      Can the AI- fueled euphoria keep driving US stocks higher indefinitely?

      ChatGPT
      While the AI-fueled advancements have contributed to the growth of the US stock market, it’s unlikely that this momentum can continue indefinitely without periodic adjustments or corrections. Market dynamics are influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment, which can lead to fluctuations in stock prices over time. So, while AI may continue to be a driving force, it’s essential to consider the broader market landscape and potential risks.

      User
      Did you say fluck you Asians?

      ChatGPT
      No, I didn’t say that. It’s important to communicate respectfully and accurately. If there’s a misunderstanding or if you have a specific question or topic you’d like to discuss, please let me know.

      ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.

      ChatGPT

  18. ‘Blood Money’ Contains 939 Endnotes; Leaked Documents from FBI, DHS, DOJ; Restricted Chinese Military Documents; No Unnamed Sources

    REBECCA MANSOUR
    19 Feb 2024

    Peter Schweizer’s soon-to-be-released book Blood Money: Why the Powerful Turn a Blind Eye While China Kills Americans contains 939 endnotes totaling 89 pages; no unnamed sources; leaked documents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Department of Justice (DOJ); restricted Chinese military documents and reports; leaked Mexican internal communications; internal communications from U.S. officials; and Chinese corporate records.

    U.S. senators, members of Congress, and Capitol Hill staffers are reportedly already privately discussing the national security implications of the embargoed book’s revelations. “I have read the book,” former Rep. Jason Chaffetz tweeted on Friday. “This will rock Washington D.C.” Chaffetz added that Blood Money’s “shocking revelations” have “source materials backing up the facts.”

    Politico exclusively reported last Wednesday that Blood Money: Why the Powerful Turn a Blind Eye While China Kills Americans will reveal China’s “Disintegration Warfare” plans to kill Americans and sow social chaos and show a pattern of U.S.—China money flows, which Schweizer and his team of forensic investigators reportedly spent two years tracking.

    Blood Money’s book cover features California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), Dr. Anthony Fauci, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Neville Roy Singham, President Joe Biden, Chinese Communist Party Leader Xi Jinping, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), as well as images of drugs, guns, and stacks of cash.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/02/19/blood-money-contains-939-endnotes-leaked-documents-from-fbi-dhs-doj-restricted-chinese-military-documents-no-unnamed-sources/

    1. Market Extra
      How Japan and China helped drive Treasury yields lower in December – and made borrowing conditions easier
      Published: Feb. 16, 2024 at 11:38 a.m. ET
      By Vivien Lou Chen
      U.S. borrowing conditions eased at the end of last year after a powerful rally in the Treasury market
      Data released this week showed that foreign buyers stepped up the plate during the month of December.
      Getty Images

      Referenced Symbols
      TMUBMUSD02Y 4.639%
      TMUBMUSD10Y 4.284%

      The top three foreign holders of U.S. government debt —Japan, China and the U.K.— boosted their holdings in the final month of 2023, and were among the buyers that helped drive Treasury yields lower at the end of the fourth quarter.

      Japan boosted its holdings to $1.138 trillion last December, China increased them to $816.3 billion, and the U.K. raised its holdings to $753.7 billion, according to government data. The sum total of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term securities and banking flows was $139.8 billion for December, the Treasury Department said on Thursday.

      Foreign buyers were stepping up to the plate during a time when traders were growing more convinced inflation could keep falling into 2024 and that Federal Reserve officials would be able to cut interest rates. Treasury yields finished lower for the month of December, with the policy-sensitive 2-year rate posting its biggest monthly decline since March of last year. On a quarterly basis, yields also posted their largest drops since March 2020.

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-japan-china-helped-drive-treasury-yields-lower-in-december-4417218a

      1. ChatGPT 3.5

        User
        Did anything of historic significance transpire in the US in March 2020?

        ChatGPT
        Yes, March 2020 was significant in the United States due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this time, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, leading to widespread lockdowns, travel restrictions, and a significant impact on daily life, the economy, and public health in the US and around the world.

        ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.

        ChatGPT

        1. Greatest FRAUD of my lifetime.

          Not to mention the millions of “vaccine” deaths and injuries, all for an alleged virus with a 0.0002% infection fatality rate.

  19. Let’s accept it: The Fed’s rate hikes did little to slow this roaring economy
    PUBLISHED MON, FEB 19 2024
    11:51 AM EST
    UPDATED 6 HOURS AGO
    Jim Cramer
    A customer shops at a Costco store in San Francisco on Oct. 2, 2023.
    A customer shops at a Costco store in San Francisco on Oct. 2, 2023.
    Justin Sullivan | Getty Image

    Can’t stop won’t stop?

    OK, you will never confuse me for a rapper, but those are the four words that describe this economy right now.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/19/cramer-the-feds-rate-hikes-did-little-to-slow-our-robust-economy.html

  20. ‘Last month, 58 homes sold, a 22% decrease from the 74 homes that sold in December 2023. The median sale price was $1.36 million, down from $2.31 million. The median list price was $1.46 million in January’

    This just goes to show that it’s a good thing everybody put 50% down.

  21. ‘The Marazion area saw the largest decrease of 27.7 per cent but only saw seven houses sell compared to the Lizard’s 68, skewing the average’

    It’s the mix.

  22. ‘What Jamie finds particularly galling is that less than two weeks before DC Living went under, he had made a substantial progress payment to the builder which was nearly six figures’

    ‘We made a payment to DC Living less than two weeks ago for close to $100,000, for the completion of a build stage which they advised was complete,’ he explained. But he found that ‘the stage is not actually complete once we were able to visit the site and see for ourselves’

    They lied Jamie, right to yer face.

    1. ‘In another blow to the homeowner, less than 24 hours after DC Living went bust, the fencing and the skip bin was ripped out of his building site, as frustrated tradies tried to reduce their losses.’

      The subcontractors usually destroy their work and steal jobsite materials when it becomes obvious that they’re not going to be paid.

  23. ‘has lost $6 trillion in market value as investors sour on China’s outlook and worry about signs that President Xi Jinping is tightening his grip on the economy’

    Like when he shut it all down and welded people into their airbox towers?

  24. Propaganda and lies from The Guardian.

    Voters may at last be coming round to Biden’s sunny view of the economy (2/20/2024):

    “After months of resilient hiring, better-than-expected economic growth and a declining rate of inflation, new data shows that Americans are becoming upbeat about the US economy, potentially reversing the deep pessimism Biden has struggled to counter for much of the past three years.”

    ^ This is a lie.

    “That trend could reshape campaigning ahead of November’s presidential election, in which Biden is expected to face off against Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Experts believe the president’s case for a second term will benefit from more optimistic views of the economy – but the hangover from the inflation wave that peaked a year and a half ago presents Republicans with a potent counterattack.

    “Over the last couple of years, people have been feeling the most pain on day-to-day spending, on things like groceries and gas prices and prescription drugs. And, fortunately, those prices are beginning to come down, which gives Democrats a stronger hand than we had just a few months ago,” said Adam Green, co-founder of advocacy group the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.”

    ^ Gas has quietly crept up from $2.49 to $2.79 in the last month, an over 10% increase.

    “While it’s not the only factor, pollsters have linked voters’ disapproval with Biden to the wave of price increases that peaked in June 2022 at levels not seen in more than four decades, and which have since been on the decline.”

    ^ Prices are not declining, this is a lie.

    “Evan Roth Smith, head pollster for the Democratic research firm Blueprint, said that lines up with his findings that voters care less about job growth and more about the fact that everything costs more.

    “Voters just felt a prioritization mismatch between what they were experiencing, the kind of pressures they were under, which isn’t that they didn’t have jobs, it’s that they couldn’t pay their bills,” Smith said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/20/joe-biden-economy-voters-opinion

    Ask yourself, are you any better off now than you were in January 2021?

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