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Even Though It Was A Great Price, The Buyer Was Still Expecting A Discount

A report from Fox Business. “The share of mortgages with a rate below 6% has fallen to 88.5% from a record high of 92.8% in mid-2022, indicating that some homeowners have given up their lower rate to move, according to Redfin. ‘Sellers have started coming out of the woodwork because that’s typical for January and because mortgage rates have dropped,’ David Palmer, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Seattle said. ‘They’re also coming to terms with the fact that rates aren’t going back down to 3% any time soon, which makes it easier to pull the trigger on selling.'”

Yahoo Finance. “Over the past two years as the Fed raised rates, many builders leaned heavily on mortgage rate buydowns, where they cover a portion of the interest rate — usually a percentage point or two — that buyers pay on a loan for a specified period of time. One builder has hinted it will pull back from concessions like mortgage rate buydowns and instead sweeten the deal for buyers through other means. KB Home will ‘reduce those incentives [and] take it to price’ in the first and second quarters of this year, COO Robert McGibney said on the company’s fourth quarter earnings call with analysts.”

The Jacksonville Daily Record in Florida. “Two of the biggest Downtown property developments on the Northbank have fizzled due to increased costs of construction and difficulties obtaining large-project financing, according to the chief executive of the Downtown Investment Authority. In an interview with the Jacksonville Daily Record, DIA CEO Lori Boyer said the city-owned sites of the proposed American Lions tower and Hardwick at Ford on Bay may be put back up for disposition – offered up for new redevelopment proposals, in other words. Boyer said both developers ran into the same problem after their redevelopment agreements were finalized. ‘(The projects) didn’t pencil with the increased costs from what they had agreed to,’ she said. ‘They couldn’t deliver on it when costs went up.'”

“A major project on the Southbank, the Miami-based Related Group’s 24-story residential tower, also ran into problems with increased costs to the tune of $30 million more for construction than the developers initially anticipated. Boyer said the DIA and Related are discussing a new agreement, which she hopes to present to the DIA board in March. Meanwhile, Boyer said residential developers are still having trouble securing loans. Council approved a $1.5 million historic preservation grant for the Ambassador/CNB project in January 2019. Today, the bank building remains standing and the Ambassador and Independent Life buildings are largely unfinished, surrounded by construction fencing. Boyer said the situation was unfortunate. ‘They’re probably not any more of an eyesore than they were before they started them, but they’re also not any better,’ she said.”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “In Los Angeles in the late 1990s and early 2000s, no place was cooler or more thrilling than Melrose Avenue. From roughly the late 1970s through the early 2000s, the mile-long stretch between La Brea and Fairfax was beloved by tourists and locals alike. While Melrose still bears flashes of this original irreverent spirit, the difference now is the crowds are gone — and so are many of the eccentric businesses that made it a destination to begin with. If you walk or drive down Melrose, you’ll notice that dozens of once-full storefronts now sit vacant and boarded up. Mainstays that temporarily closed years ago still have no return date in sight. And newer places have a habit of turning over or going out of business in mere weeks. The reality is that residents and business owners alike are feeling the sting of Melrose’s ongoing decline.”

“Residents and business owners cite 2020 as an inflection point for Melrose. After some restaurants and retailers gingerly reopened after the first lockdown, Melrose saw lootings in late May of that year. ‘Though most [Black Lives Matter] protesters assembled peaceably throughout the day, nighttime brought a level of destruction not seen in Los Angeles since the 1992 riots sparked after the police officers’ acquittal in the beating of Rodney King,’ the Los Angeles Times reported.”

“Dom DeLuca, the owner of skate shop Brooklyn Projects says that businesses on Melrose, many of them small and minority-owned, were left to their own devices in the summer of 2020. Some opted not to return. ‘The city didn’t go, ‘OK, let’s give the money to Melrose so we can rebeautify, so we can clean up, fix the broken glass.’ And a lot of the stores went: ‘F—k it. We’re not going to do it,’ DeLuca says. “All these places that were staples closed, and now nothing is taking its place. It’s like a ghost town.'”

The Stranger in Washington. “I have written about the unfinished towers in the Denny Triangle in the past. Their future is, according to most reports, still unknown. Construction still appears slow, if it’s moving at all; images I took of the development in August of 2022 cannot be distinguished from those I took last week. According to Canada’s Globe and Mail, Westbank, the Vancouver, BC-based developer, has faced an ‘onslaught of litigation… due to unpaid bills.’ That’s about as much as we know—or as much as we are allowed to know.”

“But what we can see, day in and day out, are the cranes sitting on top of the unfinished towers like stuffed birds. What might breathe life into them again? And how long can the city wait for construction to resume? This question brings me to Oceanwide Plaza in Los Angeles, an unfinished billion-dollar project that died in 2019 and is now known by the whole world as the Graffiti Towers. The scale of Oceanwide Plaza’s capital collapse is such that the city of Los Angeles, a city with a GDP of $1.5 trillion (which is on par with Brazil), is now stuck with buildings it can’t afford to demolish.”

“There is another reason why the buildings can’t be repurposed from billionaire urbanism to what LA and Seattle and other cities lack, the social spirit. The damage caused by incompletion and inactivity (a finished building is, after all, about constant maintenance) is so considerable it would ‘take up to a year of repairs just to get to the point where construction could resume.’ And that year would cost a pretty penny.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “438 King St., W., No. 1105, Toronto. Asking price: $859,990 (late October, 2023). Previous asking price: $919,990 (early October, 2023); $969,990 (August, 2023). Selling price: $830,000 (December, 2023). Previous selling price: $840,000 (July, 2020). This two-bedroom corner unit was listed at an asking price of $969,990 shortly after another unit in the building, similar but with less favourable views, finishes and outdoor space, sold for about $900,000. A lack of buyers willing to view the unit led the sellers to drop the price to $919,990. This piqued the interest of one visitor, who nonetheless waited for six weeks – and another price reduction, this time to $859,990 – to begin negotiations. A final purchase price of $830,000 was accepted.”

“‘It goes to show, there wasn’t a lot of urgency on the market, even though we dropped the price from when they saw it originally,’ agent Robin Pope said. ‘[Even though] it was a great price, the buyer was still expecting a discount.’ The sale price was $10,000 less than the owners paid for the unit in 2020.”

The National on the UK. “Early on a Thursday evening, a birthday party is taking place high up in the Leadenhall Building in the City of London. Otherwise known as The Cheesegrater because of its distinctive wedge shape, the Leadenhall is one of the biggest buildings in the financial district. Opened in 2014, it has 48 floors, providing almost 85,000 square metres of office space. It’s spectacular, granted. But it is also tinged. All around us – despite the landmark architecture – is emptiness. The giant Leadenhall Building seems devoid of people, apart from the security guards below.”

“As we gaze across at the other towers, we can see into those that are brightly lit. Only a handful of folks are at their desks and even they seem to be packing up to head off. The point is, it’s not late, barely 6.30pm. In days gone by, at this time on a Thursday, these offices would still be heaving. Bankers, lawyers, accountants, insurers – they would be hunched over their screens or locked in meetings. But that was pre-pandemic, pre-work from home. Up here, it’s obvious: London is not working, not like it used to.”

“What we can see, don’t forget, is prime commercial real estate. At the bottom are the secondary streets and the lesser blocks. Sure enough, later, on the way home, our taxi passes doors with heavy chains across them, litter on the front steps, windows that could do with a clean, and rooms that have not been fully occupied for years. Down here, there is a marked air of abandonment and decay. If landlords want to recoup their outlay, they will have to aim these new apartments at the top end. Is the demand really there? London and the other cities are already awash with luxury residential towers and conversions. No, what we saw at the Cheesegrater was proof of a growing crisis. It’s also something of an elephant in the room.”

“This year will see some $929 billion of outstanding US commercial real estate mortgages due to mature. Most commercial real estate mortgages are interest-only – so the principle has still to be repaid or the loan has to be refinanced. The fear is of defaults on those loans. If they reach 10 per cent, the National Bureau for Economic Research estimates that 231 US banks will see the market value of their assets fall below the value of their customer deposits. A contributor to the study, Columbia Business School professor Tomasz Piskorski, claimed: ‘Because of high interest rates, there are dozens to hundreds of banks that are at the brink of solvency. So, this additional commercial real estate distress puts them into the group of banks that potentially are susceptible to runs by depositors.'”

“On both sides of the Atlantic, unless people return to a five-day working week, unless offices fill up again – and there is precious little sign of any serious change, despite the best efforts of some employers to persuade staff back to their desks – shakedown, possibly meltdown, awaits.”

ABC News in Australia. “Apartment owners who bought into the uninhabitable Mascot Towers in Sydney are on the brink of securing a multi-million-dollar payout from the New South Wales government, almost five years after their ordeal began. Residents of the complex in Sydney’s inner-south are millions of dollars out of pocket, after cracks were discovered in the building’s basement in 2019. The 10-storey building remains empty, while owners’ assets are now worth a fraction of the price. The deal would allow apartment owners to finally move on, but they will still incur major losses.”

“Unit owner Rachel Williams said owners had been ‘forced into a corner’ in accepting the deal, with no prospect of a better resolution. ‘There is no win here,’ she said. One owner contacted by the ABC, who stands to lose up to $2 million, said they were glad the ordeal would be over.”

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This Post Has 51 Comments

  2. ‘said owners had been ‘forced into a corner’ in accepting the deal, with no prospect of a better resolution. ‘There is no win here,’ she said. One owner contacted by the ABC, who stands to lose up to $2 million, said they were glad the ordeal would be over’

    That’s right owner, don’t be bitter like Rachel, take yer losses like a man.

  3. ‘One builder has hinted it will pull back from concessions like mortgage rate buydowns and instead sweeten the deal for buyers through other means. KB Home will ‘reduce those incentives [and] take it to price’ in the first and second quarters of this year’

    That’s the spirit Bob, undercut yer previous customers!

  4. New York Post — 7.2M illegals entered the US under Biden admin, an amount greater than population of 36 states (2/21/2024):

    “Were the number of illegal immigrants who entered the United States under President Biden gathered together to found a city, it would be the second-largest city in America after New York.

    And the total does not include an estimated additional 1.8 million known “gotaways” who evaded law enforcement, which would make it bigger than New York.

    Taken together, nearly 10 million migrants have crossed into the US illegally during the Biden administration, a record Biden’s critics assert could only be achieved by intentionally refusing to enforce the law.

    “This unprecedented surge in illegal immigration isn’t an accident. It is the result of deliberate policy choices by the Biden administration,” said Eric Ruark, Director of Research for Numbers USA, a nonprofit that advocates for immigration restrictions.

    https://nypost.com/2024/02/21/us-news/7-2m-illegals-entered-the-us-under-biden-admin-an-amount-greater-than-population-of-36-states/

    1. “Encounters” don’t count the millions of illegals who evade CBP detection and vanish into ‘Murica after crossing the northern or southern borders.

      1. Realistically there are two other borders that people fly across daily as well. All four borders are being abused, three of them just seem more orderly but make no mistake, the invasion is occurring across all of them.

  7. A soft housing market has weighed on the home improvement sector over the past year, and signs of a turnaround could remain elusive in 2024, according to the country’s biggest home improvement retailer.

    “I’d say we have a neutral look on housing for 2024,” Home Depot (HD) CEO Edward Decker said on the company’s fourth quarter earnings call Tuesday. “We don’t think there’s incremental pressure nor do we think that we’re quite ready for a hockey stick recovery.”

    And with the odds of imminent rate cut from the Federal Reserve falling, Decker expects to see an extension of this moderation in home spending through the first half of this year.

    “[Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail] has been talking for some time [about] the Fed’s stance of higher for longer,” Decker added. “I think we now we have an appreciation that longer is going to go through the first half of this year.”

    The comments echoed what others in the housing industry have said of late. While the exact timing of Fed rate cuts is up for debate, an eventual reduction in rates should help Home Depot, Oppenheimer managing director Brian Nagel told Yahoo Finance Live Tuesday morning.

    “We have a housing market in the US that is largely in a state of paralysis. There’s just not much happening right now. Lower rates will help unlock that paralysis and serve as a better driver in better sales for Home Depot,” Nagel said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/home-depot-doesnt-see-a-hockey-stick-recovery-for-housing-market-ceo/ar-BB1iBuCq

    1. Is our resident journeyman electrician noticing a drop off in business? Or is there a shift in the type of work? Commercial, new residential, flipper work, trophy renovation work, or residential repair work? A recession sounds like a great time to get some regular-a$$ home repairs done.

      1. We have more commercial work than we have the staff to do it all now.

        Side work I’m doing a residential addition next month, they ask for me, I’m not out there submitting competing bids on this.

    1. I read they’re Hokas. I got a similar pair recently (NB). I predict he’ll fall on his ass. They’re comfortable but very bouncy. Took me a day or two to get up from a chair and not feel like falling backwards. I wouldn’t recommend them to someone his age. Hmm, maybe they’re literally greasing the skids 😏

  9. ‘Though most [Black Lives Matter] protesters assembled peaceably throughout the day, nighttime brought a level of destruction not seen in Los Angeles since the 1992 riots sparked after the police officers’ acquittal in the beating of Rodney King,’ the Los Angeles Times reported.”

    Remember when the DNC & its FBI Chekists took a knee for the REAL insurrectionists? That gave the BLM-Antifa rent-a-mobs an official green light to take the Mostly Peaceful Protests to a whole new level.

  11. “They’re also coming to terms with the fact that rates aren’t going back down to 3% any time soon”

    what D Bag, rates will NEVER be that low again, but nice try trying to convince the sheep to buy on that lie!

      1. I believe Japan still has negative rates, and their debt is something like three times their GDP. No growth there! 🙂

  13. This invasion of USA is a warfare on many fronts.
    It’s all about incentives to break down Civil Society and create dysfunction.
    Health hazards from human trash and human elimination , increase in rats etc, has run amuck.
    A madness that gives incentives for crime, health hazards, homeless run amuck, to break down functional society, and punish law abiding citizens, and make them pay for this madness.
    I have a friend who lives in LA County who has beefed up his Security, but it’s constant that criminal are staking out his neighborhood for home invasion. Million dollar neighborhood where criminals and the homeless are invading .
    Laws that allow criminals to steal from business, where business cant defend against it without being arrested.
    Homeless invasion by trash, Health hazards, human waste, encroachment and tolerated crime and thief.
    And these groups that have been given so many rights to reek havoc are the ones given incentives to just destroy a functional society.
    Border Invasion as another group of invaders given incentives to invade and do what the Powers that be want.
    But the worse by far is the fake Panademics, and Climate Change frauds, and the solutions that are genocide.

  14. Four major nonprofits that rose to prominence during the coronavirus pandemic by capitalizing on the spread of medical misinformation collectively gained more than $118 million between 2020 and 2022, enabling the organizations to deepen their influence in statehouses, courtrooms and communities across the country, a Washington Post analysis of tax records shows.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/tax-records-reveal-the-lucrative-world-of-covid-misinformation/ar-BB1iDNww

  15. 45,000 Real Estate ‘Pros’ Leave the Industry: Report
    Mark Mitchell – Mortgage Broker London Ontario
    46 minutes ago CANADA

    Ontario has seen 45,000 Real Estate ‘Professionals’ leave the industry since the end ultra-low interest rates – though some say there are still has too many agents – This according to a new report from the Toronto Star.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=–qOiZ6CWmk

    8:17.

    1. “…45,000 Real Estate ‘Professionals’ leave the industry…”

      Wondering, where do these professionals go from here?

      1. “…where do these professionals go from here?…”

        Do any one of them possess any actual skill sets?

        In this era of instant information, what is the valued added by a R/E agent other than setup street signs and hand out cookies at the open house?

  17. Leasing Companies Are Demanding Payoffs from EV Makers Like Tesla as Resale Values Plummet

    LUCAS NOLAN
    21 Feb 2024

    Fortune reports that the market for used electric cars has taken a massive hit since Tesla slashed prices last year, forcing other manufacturers to follow suit. This has impacted companies like Europe’s largest multi-brand leasing firms Ayvens and Arval, which serve as middlemen in the critical corporate car market that makes up around 60 percent of European sales.

    According to Ayvens CEO Tim Albertsen, the company has already received compensation checks in recent weeks from carmakers to cover the cratering prices of leased EVs returned at the end of their contracts. Leasing agreements typically factor in an estimated residual value, with payments designed to cover expected depreciation. But with values dropping more than predicted, the leasing firms take a loss when selling those vehicles.

    Now companies like Ayvens are pushing manufacturers for protections, including buyback guarantees to safeguard against further erosion in the $1.2 trillion used EV market. “Manufacturers today need to keep selling EVs,” said Albertsen. “We then need some kind of protection from the manufacturers in terms of their future pricing.”

    As Breitbart News previously reported on Hertz:

    In a blow to President Joe Biden’s green energy agenda, rental car company Hertz is selling off tens of thousands of electric vehicles (EVs), due to a lack of demand, to buy gas-powered cars.

    Manufacturers are responding by guaranteeing buybacks, shifting risk into the future. But carmakers remain responsible for eventually finding used EV buyers at decent prices, or taking writedowns. With demand “artificially stoked” by incentives and ending after the second-hand market, this distorted dynamic poses serious challenges, said auto expert Ursula Weigl.

    https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2024/02/21/leasing-companies-are-demanding-payoffs-from-ev-makers-like-tesla-as-resale-values-plummet/

  18. NY Illegal Migrants to Receive Up to $10,000 Each With Democrat Pre-Paid Debit Card Program

    by Jamie White
    February 21st 2024, 1:40 pm

    New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) is receiving backlash over his new pilot program that awards illegal migrants with pre-paid debit cards loaded with up to $10,000 each with virtually no safeguards or fraud controls.

    “Not only will this provide families with the ability to purchase fresh food for their culturally relevant diets and the baby supplies of their choosing, but the pilot program is expected to save New York City more than $600,000 per month, or more than $7.2 million annually,” the mayor’s office said in a statement.

    According to The Post, that $53 million figure is not the money that migrants will receive during the pilot, but the number the vendor Mobility Capital Finance will potentially receive as its fee for services.

    In fact, the program could grant the city the power to potentially disburse at least $2.5 billion on these pre-paid debit cards to migrants over a year.

    https://www.infowars.com/breaking-news/

    1. Where does someone apply? Multiple times. In multiple names. Multiples of multiples times multiples. Some “one” could retire.

    2. I’m sure this is being widely reported in South American news media.

      Would the last Venezuelan to leave for the US turn off the lights, please?

      2. I’m also hoping this is being widely reported in the black news media. And in the student-loan news media.

        1. FWIW, it’s NYC, not the Feds who are handing out these cards. Not that some semi-illiterate invader can tell the difference. All they will hear is that the yanquis are handing out free money to invaders.

    3. “expected to save New York City more than $600,000 per month”

      The only “savings” will happen when they are all deported.

      #AmericaFirst

    1. ‘They’re using our taxes to support and advocate for the illegal immigrants. And in the meantime, we’re getting pushed out.’

      …dats nacho cheese, dats muh cheese!

  22. ‘They’re probably not any more of an eyesore than they were before they started them, but they’re also not any better’

    You got some red hotcakes going Lori.

  23. ‘There is another reason why the buildings can’t be repurposed from billionaire urbanism to what LA and Seattle and other cities lack, the social spirit. The damage caused by incompletion and inactivity (a finished building is, after all, about constant maintenance) is so considerable it would ‘take up to a year of repairs just to get to the point where construction could resume.’ And that year would cost a pretty penny’

    You shot yerself in the fook with the minor respiratory illness. Better tear them down now than later. The Chinese visa fraud guys are broke.

  24. James O’Keefe
    @JamesOKeefeIII

    BREAKING: IRS official Alex Mena who works in “Criminal Investigations” says @IRSNews, ‘has no problem going after the small people, putting people in prison, and destroying people’s lives.’

    Mena ‘doubts the constitutionality’ of his employer, the IRS, using AI to access everybody’s bank accounts nationwide. Mena recalls IRS agents stating “…the first person you shoot you’re gonna remember, but after that you’re gonna shoot like a hundred people, you’re not gonna remember any of them.”

    He says IRS agents “are assholes…they are the definition of an asshole, all of them.”

    3:57 PM · Feb 21, 2024

    https://x.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1760408473630916988?s=20

  25. Huge! Latest Deep State Psyop Covers For Hunter Biden While Pushing Phony Trump-Russia Narrative

    by Kelen McBreen
    February 21st 2024, 3:59 pm

    The new propaganda being rolled out revolves around recent felony charges brought against FBI informant Alexander Smirnov, who allegedly lied to his handlers about Joe Biden’s involvement in his son Hunter’s business partnership with Ukrainian gas company Burisma.

    The most amazing part of the media blitz is that they’re all reporting Smirnov “lied” to the FBI and was “in contact with Russian intelligence” operatives based on the word of hand-picked Special Counsel David Weiss, who worked with Joe Biden’s eldest son, the deceased Beau Biden, for several years in Delaware.

    A close aide to the Biden family was also embedded in the office of David Weiss for years during his time as a Delaware attorney.

    Now, Weiss is conveniently claiming the FBI informant made up the claim that Joe Biden and Hunter were each paid $5 million from Burisma Holdings for “protection” during Sleepy Joe’s vice presidency and Hunter’s time on the board of the foreign energy company.

    Without questioning the corrupt FBI and special counsel, almost every mainstream media outlet and Democrat politician has come forward calling for the entire theory of the Biden Crime Family to be totally disregarded.

    Not only are they using this allegation of an FBI informant lying as a way to throw Americans off the scent of Hunter’s corruption, but they’re also now claiming the whole notion was all based on Russian disinformation and that every Republican and journalist who pushed it helped a foreign power by spreading the news.

    They’re also again using the Russian connection to link Donald Trump to Putin for promoting Hunter corruption stories.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/huge-latest-deep-state-psyop-covers-for-hunter-biden-while-pushing-phony-trump-russia-narrative/

    comments

    3 hours ago

    FBI IS LYING AND THE MEDIA AS USUAL THEY ARE CAUGHT AGAIN AFTER HUNTER BIDENS LAPTOP TOM FOOLERY

    THIS IS LIKE THE HUNTER LAPTOP SAYING IT WAS RUSSIAN DISINFO AND NOW THEY ARE ADDING TO IT SAYING THAT TRUMP IS BEING BLACKMAILED BY PUTIN AND SAYING THAT THE REPUBLICANS GOT FOOLED BY RUSSIAN DISINFO ITS LIKE HUNTERS LAPTOP DISINFO 2.0 AGAIN

    REPUBLICANS AND THE AMERICAN PEOPLE GOT FOOLED ONCE BY 50 INTEL PEOPLE SAYING THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP WAS DISINFO THEIR TRYING THIS SHIT AGAIN TRYING A SECOND RUSSIA HOAX

    almost every mainstream media outlet and Democrat politician has come forward calling for the entire theory of the Biden Crime Family to be totally disregarded YEAH LIKE THEY DID WITH THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP —————— THEIR TRYING THE SHIT AGAIN THIS DOJ AND ITS GESTAPO BRANCH ARE OUT OF CONTROL AND RISKING ALL OUT CIVIL WAR SOON PEOPLE HAVE HAD ENOUGH !!!!

    3 hours ago

    This is just the unimaginative democrats rehashing the same ol sht. Their logic is constant: hey, it worked last time! So now all the Biden zombies will get to repeat the same old crap as last time. This is going to blow up in their faces once again.

    1. Economy
      An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is sounding the alarm for a hard landing
      Jennifer Sor
      Feb 21, 2024, 10:21 AM ET
      This is a photo of a US $100 bill with a red arrow pointing downwards in front of it.
      sefa ozel/Getty Images

      -:There’s an under-the-radar indicator in the bond market that’s signaling a hard landing.

      – The high correlation between US and European government bond yields is pointing to a recession, according to ING.

      – But US investors still look bullish on the economy, especially as they eye Fed rate cuts in 2024.

      An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is raising alarm that the economy could be heading for a hard landing, according to ING Economics.

      Strategists at the analytics firm pointed to a tight correlation between US Treasury yields and Bund yields in Europe, with both yields slipping in recent weeks as markets reprice their interest rate expectations over the short-run.

      After the European Central Bank noted European wages slowed over the fourth quarter, the 2-year Bund yield ticked slightly lower on Tuesday, trading around 2.77%. Meanwhile, the US 2-year Treasury slumped around 7 basis points, trading around 4.59% Wednesday morning.

      When Treasury and Bund yields are highly correlated, that’s a sign that the US economy could be poised to enter a recession, ING said, as European central bankers are looking to cut interest rates quickly if the US tips into a downturn.

      That was the case in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, when a sell-off fueled by the collapse of SVB led Treasury yields and Bund yields to tumble in tandem.

      “The correlation between UST and Bund yields is significantly elevated, which usually points to a hard-landing narrative,” strategists said in a note on Wednesday. “In the case of a US hard landing, such as a severe recession or something ‘breaking,’ the ECB would also be inclined to react with short notice.”
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-fed-rate-cuts-us-economy-indicator-hard-landing-2024-2

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