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There Are More Investor-Owners Who Are Feeling The Pinch

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The ‘lock-in’ effect — current owners being unwilling to move or refinance at higher rates — is showing signs of easing as more sellers begin to put their homes up for sale. Zillow data out Thursday showed new listings of existing homes jumped 20.8% in February compared to the same time in 2023, and climbed 20.3% month-over-month. Not only that, but homeowner surveys suggest an increasing share of homeowners expect to sell in the next three years. Inventories grew the most in Dallas (38.8%), Tampa (30.7%), and Orlando (29.5%), and rose in 33 of the largest 50 US markets.”

“The number of new home listings in the Austin metro jumped nearly 45% year-over-year in February, per the Austin Board of Realtors’ Central Texas Housing Report. Across the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown Metropolitan Statistical Area, new home listings were up 44.9% year-over-year with 3,915 new listings. In Travis County, year-over-year: New home listings were up 42.8% with 1,958 new listings. In Williamson County, year-over-year: New home listings were up 41.7% with 1,172 new listings. In Hays County, year-over-year: New home listings were up 56.4% with 549 new listings. In Bastrop County, year-over-year: New home listings were up 32.2% with 160 new listings. ABoR housing economist Clare Losey said that February’s spike in new home listings was mostly found in more affordable homes, predominantly those under $400,000.”

“The number of ‘motivated sellers’ in Florida has grown in the past two weeks, as more homeowners are trying to offload their properties quickly amidst a worsening of the state’s insurance crisis. As of Wednesday morning, 204,833 properties, including single-family and multi-family homes, apartments, condos, townhomes, and lots, were listed for sale on Zillow. Of these, 5,244 were listed by self-described motivated sellers—homeowners and agents willing to accept a lower offer than the price listed on their ads. When Newsweek reported on the issue on February 28, there were 4,928 listings in Florida of properties whose sellers described themselves as motivated sellers out of a total of 202,000.”

“According to data shared on ResiClub, Florida’s active home-for-sale inventory increased by 45.8 percent year-over-year in February, while Texas’s increased by 22.8 percent. According to these estimates, Florida had the biggest shift in active housing inventory for sale compared to any other state. Some homeowners might also be willing to ‘cash in’ after years of home appreciation, Lawrence Yun, chief economist of research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), previously told Newsweek. ‘Florida had the highest home price appreciation over the past three years, and some people may be cashing out,’ he said.”

“The saga at the Four Winds, which was built in 1967, offers a window into the labyrinthine process developers must go through to execute a condo buyout in South Florida. Market realities, driven by new maintenance regulations for older residential buildings, have set the stage for a wave of sales. But while motivated sellers exist, developers eyeing prime oceanfront sites are also contending with unit owners fighting to hold on, raising questions about how many buyouts are viable. ‘It really comes down to a numbers scenario in which the condo owners have an expectation of paying X, and the developers are willing to pay Y, and they’re just not near each other,’ Alexandra Eichner, president of Continuum Co. in Florida, said of the failed Four Winds deal and others like it.”

“More sales are expected to close this year ahead of the Jan. 1 effective date for the new regulation. ‘The people who live in some of these older buildings are faced with a huge economic issue,’ said Alan Dimond, an attorney at Greenberg Traurig focused on real estate litigation. ‘Now the bill has come due and people are faced with having to write checks or the option to receive checks. A lot of owners have determined that the option to receive checks is a better option for them.'”

“After 25 straight months of declining year-over-year sales, home sales rose 7 percent in January to 10,581 deals, the Orange County Register reported, citing figures from CoreLogic. The volume of January sales still ranked as the third-lowest in records dating back 36 years. The median price of a Southern California home was $705,000 in January, up by more than 5 percent from the year before. Despite the gain, January’s median was down from the previous nine months. January’s median was $45,000 below the all-time high of $750,000 reached in April 2022, right before climbing mortgage rates combined with high prices to slow buyer demand.”

“The Port of Bellingham filed a lawsuit against Harcourt Developments, the company responsible for constructing three unfinished multi-million-dollar residential condo buildings along Bellingham’s waterfront. The company defaulted on its development contract, known as the Master Development Agreement (MDA), according to port officials. Harcourt then asked for an extension of its development timeline, which the port denied due to the notice of default. Harcourt was originally selected in 2015 as the lead developer for about 19 acres of the Waterfront District but has lost future development rights for additional property there as a result of the defaults. The company was expected to complete its three residential buildings by the end of 2023, but now has no timeline for completion.”

“The general contractor for Block 216, the new downtown Portland skyscraper anchored by a Ritz-Carlton hotel, has filed a $26 million construction lien against the project. Howard S. Wright served as the general contractor for Block 216. It filed the lien against the owners of Block 216 LLC. BPM Real Estate Group, led by Portland developer Walt Bowen, led the project. The lien is the latest and most overt sign to date that the developer of the hugely ambitious hotel, condo and office building is struggling to quickly pay bills stemming from the $600 million project. Other companies have filed liens against the Block 216 project.”

“Bowen encountered a sea of unexpected problems during construction of the building, including the pandemic, higher construction costs and interest rates, and the rapid deterioration of downtown Portland. Nevertheless, the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in the building opened last fall. The building’s luxury condos have opened as well, though sales have been slow. Construction is still not complete, the developer revealed in its written statement, saying ‘minor’ finish work is still underway. This is not the first sign of distress in Bowen’s real estate empire. His company lost the Liv Hotel in Anaheim, California, in a foreclosure after a lender said it had defaulted on loan payments.”

“A home in Burlington re-listed for sale multiple times and eventually sold at a staggering loss shows just how prices tend to fluctuate in the GTA real estate market. The bungalow, located at 841 Danforth Place in Burlington’s affluent LaSalle neighbourhood sold for $2.1 million in February 2022, when home prices reached an all-time peak in the GTA. As interest rates began rapidly driving prices down further into the year, the home failed to sell when it was re-listed for a mind-boggling $3.3 million just a few months later. The home was put back up on the market just above its initial selling price at $2.2 million in April 2023, but failed to sell once again. In November 2023, the home was re-listed at a fraction of its original price at $1.5 million.”

“Eventually, the home sold for $1.42 million in March 2024, approximately $700,000 less than it was originally purchased for just two years earlier. Despite this case, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) found in its latest market report, that selling prices in the GTA actually edged upward in February, driven by ‘population growth’ and a ‘resilient regional economy’ that continued to support the overall demand for housing.”

“Some buyers are sorting through the Toronto-area condo market and cherry-picking deals in a segment with plenty of inventory to choose from. With the central bank holding interest rates steady for five consecutive meetings, Manu Singh, real estate agent at Right at Home Realty, says the number of properties being sold under power of sale is on the rise. ‘The condo side is more well-supplied and there are more investor-owners who are feeling the pinch,’ he says. At one point ‘months of inventory’ – which is a measure of how long it would take to sell the available supply at the current pace of sales – had swelled above seven months.”

“In many cases, lenders are selling after an investor has defaulted on mortgage payments, he says, and the properties are often unattractive. They tend to be in rundown buildings and poor locations because such investors often did not have strong finances to begin with. More recently, power of sale properties have been popping up in desirable high-rise buildings. ‘We never used to see these,’ says Mr. Singh. ‘Now we’re evaluating these on a regular basis.'”

“Homeowners in Aberdeen who are set to be forced out of their properties after collapse-risk concrete was found in the roofs are threatening legal action over the council’s handling of the ‘complete nightmare.’ The group of residents, who purchased their homes after the properties were sold off under the Right to Buy scheme, fear that they too will have to leave. It comes as experts warn that the so-called ‘crumbling concrete’ could be more widespread in social housing across the UK than first thought. Hannah Chowdhry, a 20-year-old law student, bought her ex-council home on the Balnagask estate for £120,000 only last summer – but says she was not told about the presence of RAAC in the roofs.”

“‘I’m totally shocked,’ she told i. ‘It’s really distressing. The whole community is distraught. We don’t want to lose the money we’ve put into our homes. We want to get proper compensation. We’ll be fighting for an outcome that is fair.’ Lynn Winstanley, who bought her home on the estate only two years ago, said: ‘The stress has been unbelievable. It’s a complete nightmare.'”

“Croatian property prices have been the topic of a lot of conversation of late, with most sky-rocketing beyond belief. For one square metre of a used apartment in Zagreb, an average of 2,987 euros is currently being demanded, which is 11 percent more than the realised average price of a new apartment. The average difference between the requested and realised price on the Croatian property market stands at about 15 percent, and in the City of Zagreb, this disparity is greater than 20 percent. This means that an apartment in Zagreb that is advertised for 200,000 euros ultimately reaches a price of 150 to 160 thousand euros. In the cooling phase of the market, characterised by a drop in demand, sellers are forced to adjust their expectations.”

“China’s real-estate market set an unwelcome record last month. The price of secondhand homes in the country’s big cities fell 6.3% in February, the worst monthly decline since the government started releasing data in 2011. That was part of a widespread drop in prices across the country, as China’s painful real-estate slump shows no signs of losing steam. The yearslong property slowdown has dealt huge damage to the economy, reducing business for construction companies and other firms that thrived during the property boom, hitting confidence among nervous homeowners, and exacerbating the debt burden facing local governments which for years relied on land sales as their major source of revenue.”

“The government has prodded state banks to increase lending for property developers on a so-called white list, injecting new funds into the ailing property sector. Some in the country are calling for more extreme measures. China should freeze construction of all new projects until the property market recovers, said Mao Zhenhua, co-director of Renmin University’s Institute for Economic Research, at a briefing this week.”

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This Post Has 80 Comments

  1. ‘China should freeze construction of all new projects until the property market recovers’

    That’s what I’ve been saying Mao. You’ve got empty units that could house a billion people.

  2. ‘I’m totally shocked,’ she told i. ‘It’s really distressing. The whole community is distraught. We don’t want to lose the money we’ve put into our homes. We want to get proper compensation. We’ll be fighting for an outcome that is fair’

    Bargaining <- Hannah you are here.

  4. Soothsayer- Caesar!

    CAESAR- Ha! who calls?

    CASCA- Bid every noise be still: peace yet again!

    CAESAR- Who is it in the press that calls on me?
    I hear a tongue, shriller than all the music,
    Cry ‘Caesar!’ Speak; Caesar is turn’d to hear.

    Soothsayer- Beware the ides of March.

    CAESAR- What man is that?

    BRUTUS- A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.

    CAESAR- Set him before me; let me see his face.

    CASSIUS- Fellow, come from the throng; look upon Caesar.

    CAESAR- What say’st thou to me now? speak once again.

    Soothsayer- Beware the ides of March.

    CAESAR- He is a dreamer; let us leave him: …. pass.

    1. About a third of our properties are self insured, or no insurance for damage to a house…..We do have liability coverage for each house,though , at about $100 per rental dwelling …it’s hard to find , takes a good insurance broker to help you out,but there’s too many crazys out there to go without that part…
      A chilling news item out of Columbia, SC, 3 very underage girls were going around a getto project “Setting off little fires for fun”…..and no one stopped them, well, they burned out 4 units…..

  6. Terrified residents of San Francisco’s Tenderloin district sue for streets free of drugs, tents

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/terrified-residents-san-franciscos-tenderloin-211651647.html

    SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Two hotels and several residents of San Francisco’s troubled Tenderloin district sued the city on Thursday, alleging it is using the neighborhood as a containment zone for rampant illegal drug use and other vices, making residents terrified to leave their homes and businesses unable to recruit staff.

    Plaintiffs do not seek monetary damages, according to the complaint filed in federal court. Instead, they want officials to clear sidewalks of illegal drug dealers and fentanyl users, violent behavior and tent encampments and to treat the Tenderloin as it would any other neighborhood where crime is not tolerated.

    They say city officials have allowed such behavior to flourish in the area — and not spill into other neighborhoods — by refusing to keep sidewalks clear for people using walkers or wheelchairs and failing to ban sidewalk vending, among other acts of omission.

    “They demand an end to the rampant illegal street vending, and from the squalor and misery that exists throughout their neighborhood because the city has decided that people in the throes of addiction can live and die on the Tenderloin’s streets,” said Matt Davis, one of the attorneys, in a prepared statement.

    The Tenderloin has long troubled city leaders, including Mayor London Breed, who declared an emergency in the district and twice vowed crackdowns on drugs. She is in a tough reelection contest in November, when she faces three serious challengers who say her administration has failed to address homelessness, encampments or the open-air drug market.

    Breed’s office said the recently approved Proposition E, which she put on the ballot, will bring more officers and resources to the neighborhood, including surveillance cameras.

    “We have made improvements in the neighborhood, but the mayor understands the frustrations of residents and businesses in the Tenderloin and will continue her efforts to make the neighborhood safer and cleaner,” the statement read.

    Her office cited a court injunction from a 2022 lawsuit filed by homeless people and their advocates against the city that Breed and other officials say limits their ability to dismantle encampments.

    The judge in that case ordered city officials to stop forcing homeless people from public camping sites unless they have been offered appropriate shelter indoors. The issue is pending before the U.S. Supreme Court.

    There are five anonymous plaintiffs in Thursday’s lawsuit along with entities that operate the Phoenix Hotel and the Best Western Road Coach Inn.

    They include Jane Roe, a married housekeeper with two young children who doesn’t make enough money to move. Drug dealers block the entrance to her building and she often sees “users openly injecting or smoking narcotics” and people on the ground “who appear unconscious or dead,” the complaint states. Her children can never be outside without a parent, she alleges.

    Susan Roe is elderly and uses a walker, but shopping carts and broken down bicycles block the sidewalk, forcing her to step out into the busy street, according to the complaint. She also has to navigate around “excrement, used syringes, vomit and garbage.”

    Operators of the Phoenix Hotel said a hotel employee was struck in the head when they asked a trespasser to leave the parking lot and its restaurant has been unable to recruit a qualified chef because of street conditions.

    The same lawyers on Thursday also filed a new motion on behalf of College of the Law, San Francisco, demanding that city officials reduce the number of tents in the Tenderloin, as they had pledged to do to settle a lawsuit over street conditions filed by the school in May 2020. The city initially showed “significant success,” the motion states, but has since lost ground.

    1. [Here’s a blast from the recent past …]

      Mayor London Breed’s Controversial Defunding of San Francisco’s Law Enforcement
      November 1, 2023

      https://sanfranciscodsa.com/mayor-london-breeds-controversial-defunding-of-san-franciscos-law-enforcement/#:~:text=Despite%20subsequent%20attempts%20to%20present,doubts%20on%20the%20city's%20ability

      [snip]

      “Mayor Breed’s 2020 endorsement of the nationwide movement to defund the police marked a significant turning point in San Francisco’s law enforcement landscape. Despite subsequent attempts to present herself as pro-public safety, her decisions to freeze deputy sheriff and police hiring in 2022 and allocate $120 million from law enforcement to the African American community in 2021 indicate a consistent trend of budget cuts and reallocation, casting doubts on the city’s ability to maintain law and order.”

  7. [This article is not housing related but nevertheless it is interesting on several levels.]

    El Salvador to transfer ‘big chunk’ of bitcoin to physical vault

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/el-salvador-transfer-big-chunk-004554163.html

    SAN SALVADOR (Reuters) -El Salvador will transfer “a big chunk” of its bitcoin assets to an offline device that will be stored in a physical vault within the Central American country’s territory, President Nayib Bukele said on Thursday.

    “We’ve decided to transfer a big chunk of our Bitcoin to a cold wallet, and store that cold wallet in a physical vault within our national territory,” Bukele, who last month was re-elected to a second term as president, said in a post on X. “It’s not much, but it’s honest work.”

    According to Bukele’s social media account on Thursday, El Salvador’s bitcoin portfolio is at close to $407 million.

    The true size of the holdings remains unclear, but a recent rally in bitcoin values has reignited interest in the world’s largest, if volatile, cryptocurrency.

    Bitcoin on Thursday hit a record high of $73,800.

    In September 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to establish bitcoin as legal tender, earning it harsh criticism. One of the strongest critics was the International Monetary Fund, which has been negotiating a large loan with the cash-poor country.

    Bukele has also sketched plans for a tax-free crypto haven powered by geothermal energy from a volcano. As he prepares to enter his second term as president, ground has yet to be broken on this so-called Bitcoin City.

    2. Bitcoin $68,000.

      Profit takers will regret their meager gains. $200,000 by year end…

      1. Right now, BTC is increasing in value only because there is a small number of Greater Fools out there who are True Believers — those who truly believe that BTC will replace — entirely replace — major world currencies. The majority of the market is made up of cynical traders who know that BTC will never be a world currency, but are capitalizing on this innocent faith and selling to the True Believer greater fools for an instant and secure profit.

        You sound to me like you are not a True Believer… in BTC, or in anything else for that matter. In that case, you are a Trader. You know it will come crashing down and your only question is: When. Do you really want to stake it all on nailing down that When?

        The sidewalks of 1929 Manhattan were littered with the remains of traders who HODLed everything right up until the last second, missed the peak, and HODLed all the way down. Ditto for 2001. Perhaps it would be wiser hedge both sides now: realize some gains now, realize some more gains later, and HODL the rest for a mythical top that may never come.

        1. Or…that character would never ever buy bitcoin despite the assertions of getting rich off a $1000 “investment”.

    3. “Bitcoin City”.

      From Wikipedia …

      Bitcoin City is a planned smart city project in La Unión, El Salvador. The planned city is intended to be a tax haven, and to use geothermal energy to power Bitcoin mining. The feasibility of its reliance on both geothermal energy and Bitcoin have been the subject of criticism, alongside concerns regarding delays in the project’s financing and construction.

      Description
      In November 2021, Nayib Bukele announced that he planned to build Bitcoin City in the southeastern region of La Unión at the base of the Conchagua volcano, which would use geothermal energy to power bitcoin mining.[1] The project has been criticized by ecologist Ricardo Navarro. “Geothermal still costs more than oil, otherwise we would already be using more of it. What will end up happening is that we will just be buying more oil,” he told The Telegraph.[2]

      The planned city will use energy from Conchagua volcano to power its infrastructure, as well as the mining of cryptocurrencies. The project, announced by President Nayib Bukele, will be funded by a $1 billion Bitcoin bond issued by state-owned power company LaGeo.[3] Also known as “Volcano bonds”, half of the income from the sales would fund the construction of Bitcoin City and the mining of cryptocurrencies. The other half would be invested in Bitcoins in the hope that they would rise in value. Most buyers are expected to be crypto investors, some of whom may be granted Salvadoran citizenship depending on how much bond they purchase.[4]

      Bukele has promised to make the city a tax haven, saying,[5]

      We will have no income tax, forever. No income tax, zero property tax, no procurement tax, zero city tax, and zero CO2 emissions … The only taxes that they will have in Bitcoin City is VAT, half will be used to pay the municipality’s bonds and the rest for the public infrastructure and maintenance of the city.

      The project has faced various criticisms, ranging from concerns over delays in financing and construction, to skepticism that Salvadorans will willingly adopt Bitcoin, that investors will be able to recoup costs if El Salvador defaults, and that Bukele’s government has made misleading statements regarding the project’s progress.

  8. Working for you
    Here’s the salary you need to make to comfortably afford a home in San Diego, study says
    A financial advisor says owning a home is attainable in San Diego but it will take the CARIT method to be disciplined and a willingness to sacrifice.
    Author: Abbie Black
    Published: 6:10 PM PDT March 14, 2024
    Updated: 6:10 PM PDT March 14, 2024

    SAN DIEGO — The American dream of buying a home seems further and further away for many people.

    A Zillow study revealed the median income should be $273,613 annually to comfortably afford a typical home in San Diego.
    …
    https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/working-for-you/the-salary-you-need-to-make-to-comfortable-afford-a-home-in-san-diego/509-572c9a42-b9a8-4178-aefa-236cb8102767

    1. Business
      Tens of thousands of residents moved out of San Diego County last year — almost double the number a year earlier
      San Diego skyline in March.
      Amid escalating housing costs, tens of thousands of residents left San Diego County between 2022 and 2023 — a level not seen in nearly three decades, with the exception of the first year of the pandemic.
      (Nelvin C. Cepeda/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
      New Census Bureau data reveal that a combination of births and immigrants moving into the county over the last year wasn’t enough to make up for the unexpectedly high exodus of residents who left the county between 2022 and 2023.
      By Lori Weisberg, Phillip Molnar
      March 14, 2024 5 AM PT

      Against the backdrop of soaring housing costs in the last year, tens of thousands of San Diego County residents decided to take a big leap. They left.

      New estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau reveal that close to 31,000 more people moved out of the county than moved in between July of 2022 and July of 2023 — almost double what it was a year earlier. With the exception of the first year of the pandemic, when the net outflow exceeded 33,000, that volume of people exiting the county hasn’t been seen in nearly three decades.
      …
      https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2024-03-14/tens-of-thousands-of-residents-moved-out-of-san-diego-county-last-year-almost-double-the-number-a-year-earlier

      1. “Against the backdrop of soaring housing costs in the last year, tens of thousands of San Diego County residents decided to take a big leap. They left.”

        Many baby boomer retirees are leaving the Golden State because of the state’s 13% income tax that gouges into their retirement income.

        1. into their retirement income.

          At least in the Socialist Republic of New York, retirement income is not taxed.

          1. When the New York Jets are visiting to play a game in California they are income taxed by the state.

    2. How many San Diego households pull down a quarter of a million dollars in income each year?

      2. What is the percentage of homes that are mortgage free? Can a majority of the people with the median household income afford property taxes, home insurance, repairs without any savings?

        1. What if the early waves of sellers are deeply in debt and bail when the lies of endless “appreciation” cannot be ignored? The market price of a thing is set by a relatively small number of transactions.

        2. The fraction of homes that are mortgage-free hovers around 1/3. I suspect that fraction will drop fast as the last of the Silent Generation dies off and the baby boomers sell out to go to a nursing home.

    3. Paradise at a Price
      Single in San Diego | Here’s how many decades it will take singles to save, buy a home
      A new study reveals it could take a lifetime for singles to save and buy a home in two San Diego County cities.
      Author: Jayne Yutig
      Published: 2:46 PM PDT March 13, 2024
      Updated: 2:56 PM PDT March 13, 2024

      SAN DIEGO — Being single and living with a significant other both have their perks, but when it comes to buying a home couples seem to have an advantage.

      A new study reveals it could take a lifetime for singles in San Diego to save a down payment and buy a home.

      Five decades
      …
      https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/paradise-at-a-price/how-long-it-takes-singles-to-buy-home-in-san-diego/509-0caf76a5-e9bd-425d-b111-038a2a7766c9

  9. Financial Times
    House & Home
    What is causing the growing divide in the US property market?
    While most homebuyers are still hobbled by high mortgage rates, sales of luxury homes are surging
    Hugo Cox yesterday

    In late February, Edmond Franco and Jeremy Gregg bought a new multimillion-dollar condo apartment in Midtown Manhattan, going over their original budget by more than 50 per cent.

    “Yes, it’s much more than we planned to spend,” says Franco, who works as a financial adviser, but he considers the home to be one “we will never find again” — a good long-term investment.

    “My instinct is that this is an inflection point for property in New York: US economic growth is very good; unemployment is low; the stock market is up,” he says. “The city feels as vital as it has ever been: we wanted to be ahead of the curve; we didn’t want to get into a bidding war.”

    Three thousand miles away in San Francisco, a home purchase has never felt further away for Michelle and her husband. The couple, who work in tech, were both laid off last summer. Michelle’s husband is still unemployed and Michelle worries that her new job is not secure.

    When their lease expires in June, they plan to cut their rent by a third by moving from their three-bedroom flat in Oakland, on the east side of San Francisco Bay, to a smaller home.

    “There is no way we will be extending ourselves with a purchase at the moment. Mortgage rates are too high and so are prices, and with our sector as it is, there is no safety net. It’s hard not to be pessimistic,” says Michelle, who declined to give her surname.
    …

    1. Take home: Whether or not yuppy couples can afford to buy a home, everyone agrees US home prices are riding a one-way escalator into the sky.

  10. “Eventually, the home sold for $1.42 million in March 2024, approximately $700,000 less than it was originally purchased for just two years earlier.
    I don’t know who these people are but this is approaching B list celebrity type losses. Well done

    1. A brown envelope, perhaps? Plus reassurances that he won’t be committing suicide if orders are followed?

      1. Fani Willis

        By no means the end of this soap opera. Her basket of consequences is not likely over.

    1. Snake…frog…bird…must be fairly similar ancient human protein sources.

      Bugz not so much…

  13. “Zillow data out Thursday showed new listings of existing homes jumped 20.8% in February compared to the same time in 2023, and climbed 20.3% month-over-month. Not only that, but homeowner surveys suggest an increasing share of homeowners expect to sell in the next three years. Inventories grew the most in Dallas (38.8%), Tampa (30.7%), and Orlando (29.5%), and rose in 33 of the largest 50 US markets.”

    Housing price CR8R formation process is now underway. Looking back five years from now should be quite interesting.

    1. It is interesting to note that Dallas is said to have had the highest population growth last year at +150k (Houston was +139k). Tampa and Orlando made the top ten list with 50k apiece. When every city in the US is losing to a place like Dallas something is wrong. Dallas is one of the few big cities that doesn’t have proper water access, it is a barren landlocked sprawl similar to Las Vegas and Phoenix. Phoenix also made the top ten for population growth. Someday people will wonder what all those people were thinking.

      1. I don’t know how humans survive in Phoenix. We nearly died of a combination of thirst and heat stroke during a short hike last April. Summer there is unimaginable.

        It is beautiful, though.

  14. [Still another non-housing related article …]

    Oh Canada! The Parliament Moves To Impose Potential Life Imprisonment For Speech Crimes.

    https://jonathanturley.org/2024/03/14/oh-canada-the-parliament-moves-to-impose-potential-life-imprisonment-for-speech-crimes/

    We have previously discussed the unrelenting attacks by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his allies on free speech. There has been a steady criminalization of speech, including even jokes and religious speech, in Canada. Now, the Canadian parliament is moving toward a new change that would allow the imposition of life imprisonment on those who post views deemed supportive of genocide. With a growing movement calling Israel’s war in Gaza “genocide,” the potential scope of such a law is readily apparent. That appears to be its very draw for anti-free speech advocates in the country.

    The Online Harms Act, or Bill C-63 increases the potential penalties from five years to life imprisonment. It also increases the penalty for the willful promotion of hatred (a dangerously ill-defined crime) from two years to five years. The proposed changes constitute a doubling down on Canada’s commitment to reducing free speech for citizens despite criticism from many in the civil liberties community.

    There is also a chilling option for house arrest if a judge believes a defendant “will commit” an offense. In other words, if a judge thinks that a citizen will be undeterred and try to speak freely again.

    Justice Minister Arif Virani employed the same hysteria to convince citizens to surrender their freedoms to the government. He expressed how terrified he was with the potential of free speech, stating that he is “terrified of the dangers that lurk on the internet for our children.”

    It is not likely to end there. Today the rationale is genocide. However, once the new penalties are in place, a host of other groups will demand similar treatment for those with opposing views on their own causes. This law already increased the penalties for anything deemed hateful speech.

    The law comes after Canada blocked a Russian dissident from becoming a citizen because of her violation of Russian anti-free speech laws. In a telling act, the government said that the same conduct (i.e., free speech) could be a crime in Canada. Indeed, it may now be punished even more harshly.

    2. I was watching some inflation TikTok compilations last night and was surprised at how many women are actively seeking supporters for a revolution. Some of them have even moved on to discussing strategy and planning. Apparently when they can’t afford to feed their kids, drama ensues. Someone might have to shut TikTok down before things get out of hand! The Canadian ones are even worse, they are ready to start burning it all down. It’s probably nothing, I’m sure everything will be fine.

  15. R ur stonkz CR8Ring, now that Wall Street has you convinced they can only go up in value from now on?

    1. S&P 500 closes lower on inflation worries, notches second straight weekly loss: Live updates
      Brian Evans
      Alex Harring
      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

      The S&P 500 fell on Friday and notched its second-straight weekly loss, with technology stocks under pressure as inflation concerns remain front and center ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

      The broad market index lost 0.65% to close at 5,117.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 190.89 points, or 0.49%, to finish the session at 38,714.77, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.96% to 15,973.17.

      The S&P 500 shed 0.13% this week. The 30-stock Dow inched lower by 0.02% on the week, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.7%.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

  16. Fortune
    $22 trillion worth of the housing market—or 44% of all homes in the U.S.—is at risk of severe or extreme damage from environmental threats
    Fortune· Photo by Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images
    Alena Botros
    Wed, Mar 13, 2024, 9:56 AM PDT
    4 min read

    Climate risk is a $22 trillion problem for the housing market—and it’s only set to keep growing. Almost 44.8% of homes across the country, worth nearly $22 trillion, are staring down “at least one type of severe or extreme climate risk,” according to a newly released Realtor.com report which considered flood, wind, wildfire, heat, and air quality issues. That represents nearly $22 trillion of housing wealth, concluded the authors, economist Jiayi Xu, economic data manager Sabrina Speianu, and chief economist Danielle Hale.

    More so, 40.4% of homes, worth $19.7 trillion, are at severe or extreme risk when it comes to heat, wind, and air quality. “Climate risk is a big deal,” Xu said in a separate release. “It can impact home values, insurance costs, and the overall stability of a housing market.”
    …
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/22-trillion-worth-housing-market-165638851.html

  17. A reader sent these in:

    Each year, the U.S. BLS revises the state’s jobs number to match actual payroll records from businesses. The latest revision lowered its count of California jobs by 277k.

    https://twitter.com/LAOEconTax/status/1767979503371039184

    Pilot getting ready to fly a $BA 737 MAX👇👇

    https://twitter.com/hkuppy/status/1768231924554740055

    I figured this had to be a spoof but it’s not. Toronto police at public hearing literally says put your car keys in a place with easy access for roving gangs to prevent more injurious home invasions.
    A Clockwork Orange has entered the room.

    https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1768306391570149404

    What stage of the bubble is this?

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1768249892483281072

    there you have it… #Circus

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1768437069657801042

    Westbrook Partners, the owner of the San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel, has defaulted on the loan for the property

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1768414653174956512

    The Bank of Japan is arranging for the ending of its negative interest rate policy at the end of March

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1768267480328495333

    Credit card default rate for small lenders have just hit a new record of 7.8%. These levels have never been seen since 1991

    https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1768283442746413188

    The US stock market isn’t the only one with high market concentration
    Market cap of top 30 Japanese stocks relative to their index have now reached levels last seen in 2000

    https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1768264567556108481

    ❖ SEN SANDERS: A.I. MAKES 32-HOUR WORKWEEK POSSIBLE

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1768265899453174212

    🚨 Insane CRE Story ALERT 🚨

    Developer secures $50M construction loan to build a medical facility.

    Problem was they got the loan by fraudulently claiming to have signed leases with various tenants.

    Construction starts with $30M of work completed by the General Contractor (GC).

    Lender finally discovers the fraud and starts foreclosure process, leaving $30M in unpaid bills to the GC.

    In English, this means that the GC is about to make $0 on $30M in work.

    In a plot twist, the GC knew of the fraud and had potential legal exposure for being complicit.

    GC decides to buy the loan because they thought the building would be worth $75M at closing and they could make $25M. ($50M loan + $25M profit on sale)

    When buying the loan, the GC was able to use their $30M in unpaid bill claims – which the lender owed them – as their “down payment” and came up with the remaining $20M in cash to buy the $50M loan.

    Here’s the kicker – because the GC was worried about their legal exposure, they included a provision in the loan purchase where they would take over the rights to sue the developer.

    They did this so they could squash legal proceedings in which they were potentially liable.

    In summary, the GC became the developer and absolved themselves of any legal liability

    https://twitter.com/jandreini1/status/1768323614573789644

    Old co-worker was laid off a few months ago at 63 years old.
    He’s been complaining how hard it is to find a job or even get a single interview.
    So for all the “never retire” people, remember it’s not always a choice.

    https://twitter.com/FinPhilosopher/status/1768281145249075709

    “Hi, I am Jason. I will be your server tonight.”

    “Hey, aren’t you that all-in $tsla guy that never sold?”

    https://twitter.com/RicochetRowdy/status/1768281596313079890

    All of the headlines this morning read that retail sales ‘rebounded!’ from January, real retail sales fell from January to February

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1768293216883818999

    Ho Lee sheet

    https://twitter.com/great_martis/status/1768281351042851082

    It’s begun.

    https://twitter.com/great_martis/status/1768279711174828512

    There are only 3 major buyers of bitcoin.
    Fidelity, blackrock, and micro strategy.
    The rest are seagulls buying.
    Biggest ponzi in history.
    Books shall be written.

    https://twitter.com/great_martis/status/1768175337979134108

    Genius.🤦‍♂️

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1768284269430903142

    Bring on the supply!
    “New listings are up 13%, the biggest annual increase in nearly three years, and the total number of homes for sale is up 3%, the biggest increase in nine months.”

    https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1768363240633909277

    Millennial: “How much did you pay for your first house?”
    Boomer: “laughs””$12,000”

    Millennial: 💀

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1768131578012541254

    The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.02%
    Spread: 273 bps

    https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1768323187756896332

    New Zillow tag just dropped

    https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1768307239071129832

    One of the most unhelpful “solutions” to housing affordability I see tossed about on ReTwit is,

    “Just move to a cheaper market to buy a home”

    This solves a problem for you but creates a problem for others

    Here is what happens in cheaper markets when many of “you” do that:

    https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1768287903401050283

    1. Credit card default rate for small lenders have just hit a new record of 7.8%. These levels have never been seen since 1991
      Looking at the graph makes me believe this is the worst level on record and the reason they mention 1991 is because that is when the tracking began.

  18. ‘Florida had the highest home price appreciation over the past three years, and some people may be cashing out’

    Yer right Larry, and a bunch are now trying at the worst time for Florida in a decade.

    1. Also: https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/realtors-settlement-change-buy-sell-homes-da45eb23?mod=hp_lead_pos1

      But will the sellers still be charged their portion – 3% – or is that negiotatable.

      For instance – take an avg home in an avg burg – can you negiotate somethink like $4K + 1% of selling price above $400K of the selling price – so $8K sellers commision on a $800K home – instead of $24K today @ 6% NAR rate

      NAR agreed to abandon longstanding industry rules that have required most home-sale listings to include an upfront offer telling buyers’ agents how much they will get paid. Under a system in place for a generation, sellers have typically set buyers’ agents’ fees. Consumer advocates say the arrangement has prevented buyers from negotiating to save money and kept commissions in the U.S. higher than in most of the world.

      The association has said the current model helps buyers benefit from an agent’s advice even if they can’t afford to pay an agent out of pocket.

      If the settlement is approved by a federal court, listings of homes for sale in most parts of the country would no longer include upfront offers to buyers’ agents starting in mid-July, and buyers would be able to negotiate compensation upfront with their agents. The settlement money will be distributed to recent home sellers nationwide, a class of potentially some 50 million people.

    2. also from the WSJ article. They are basically admitting that they are paying the buyer’s commission over the length of the 25 yr mortgage.

      The new commission structure could pose challenges for first-time buyers and others who are struggling to save for a down payment. Because the buyer’s agent’s commission has long been baked into the sale price, the buyer was able to finance that cost over the length of the mortgage instead of having to pay it upfront at the closing table.

      “I think you are going to have first-time buyers that are just going to say, ‘I just can’t afford to pay you,’” said Ryan Gable, chief executive of StartingPoint Realty in the Chicago area. “Those are the people that need us the most, and a lot of them don’t have the money to pay us right away.”

      1. ‘Because the buyer’s agent’s commission has long been baked into the sale price, the buyer was able to finance that cost over the length of the mortgage instead of having to pay it upfront’

        Sound lending! And the closing costs are often financed via the UHS collusion I’ve mentioned before, especially FHA/USDA.

        1. There are so many arguments to be made on how there’s more fraud this time around than in the last run-up.

  20. CNBC — Laid-off techies face ‘sense of impending doom’ with job cuts at highest since dot-com crash (3/15/2024):

    “Since the start of the year, more than 50,000 workers have been laid off from over 200 tech companies, according to tracking website Layoffs.fyi. It’s a continuation of the predominant theme of 2023, when more than 260,000 workers across nearly 1,200 tech companies lost their jobs.

    Last month’s job cut count was the highest of any February since 2009, when the financial crisis forced companies into cash preservation mode.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/15/laid-off-techies-struggle-to-find-jobs-with-cuts-at-highest-since-2001.html

    1. A lot of those firms never turned a profit. Remember when being profitable didn’t matter?

  22. “Last month’s job cut count was the highest of any February since 2009, when the financial crisis forced companies into cash preservation mode.”

    And 2009 was a good year for crater.

    “The bursting of the housing bubble has brought the steepest and swiftest decline in house values in recorded US history. The national median house price fell from its peak in July 2006 to January 2009 by 29 percent. value loss of 27 percent over a four year period (1929-1933).”

  23. Sanctuary State Massachusetts: Haitian Migrant Freed into U.S. Accused of Raping Young Girl

    JOHN BINDER
    15 Mar 2024

    According to Plymouth County law enforcement, Alvarez was living at a migrant shelter in Rockland, Massachusetts when he invited the 15-year-old girl over to his room. The girl told police Alvarez promised to help her open apps on her tablet.

    Instead, police allege, Alvarez raped the girl, even as she asked him to stop.

    Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey (D) told the media that Alvarez arrived in the state after being released into the U.S. “through a federal program,” — likely President Joe Biden’s parole pipeline which allows those arriving at the southern border to be released into the nation’s interior while their immigration cases are sorted out.

    “His person was in the country under the federal program,” Healey said. “… again, we don’t know the specifics of this case, but we take all allegations of sexual assault most seriously. My heart goes out to the victim, the alleged victim in this case, and her family. We need to let the criminal justice system do its work.”

    Alvarez has been forced to surrender his passport and is being held in custody in Plymouth County without bail.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/03/15/sanctuary-state-massachusetts-haitian-migrant-freed-into-u-s-accused-of-raping-young-girl/

  25. Success Economy
    40-year-old homeowner says economy doesn’t add up: ‘I’m making the most money I’ve ever made, and I’m still living paycheck to paycheck’
    “There’s this wild disconnect between what people are experiencing and what economists are experiencing,” says Nikki Cimino, a recruiter in Denver.
    BY Claire Ballentine, Eliza Ronalds-Hannon, AND Bloomberg
    March 15, 2024 9:30 AM EDT
    …
    https://fortune.com/2024/03/15/why-economy-bad-making-most-money-ever-living-by-paycheck/

    1. Financial Times
      US interest rates
      Markets capitulate to Federal Reserve on interest rates after months-long stand-off
      Traders bet on three quarter-point cuts in 2024, down from expectation for six or seven at start of year
      The Federal Reserve building in Washington
      The Federal Reserve will meet next week to discuss the course of future rate cuts and update its projections for the rest of the year
      Kate Duguid in New York and Mary McDougall in London 7 hours ago
      Investors have fallen into line with the Federal Reserve’s expectation that it will cut interest rates just three times this year, ending a months-long stand-off between markets and the central bank.

      Following a run of economic data signalling that US inflation is stubbornly high, traders were on Friday pricing in only three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year, according to data compiled by LSEG.

      Before Tuesday’s unexpected rise in US inflation, investors had bet on almost a full percentage point of cuts by December. In January, they were pricing in between six and seven quarter-point cuts by the end of 2024.
      …

      1. “Markets capitulate to Federal Reserve on interest rates after months-long stand-off”

        Normally market capitulation means CR8R. I guess this time is different?

        1. Does it almost seem like you can’t go wrong these days snapping up risk assets, like stocks, Treasurys, bitcoin and houses?

          1. LYahoo Finance
            Bloomberg
            Wall Street Doom Prophesy Falls Flat on Hottest Rally Since 2016
            Lu Wang
            Fri, Mar 15, 2024, 1:32 PM PDT
            7 min read
            In this article:

            (Bloomberg) — In the telling of Wall Street worrywarts, as 2023 drew to a close, the biggest financial markets on the planet were heading into the danger zone.

            After a ferocious fourth-quarter rally, the fate of the S&P 500 rested on just seven companies with doubtful earnings prospects. Infamous hedge-fund trades were threatening to destabilize the already unstable Treasury market. Trillions of dollars in debt were coming due while consumers were running out of pandemic-era savings fast.

            More than three months later, what’s kicking off instead is a fresh bout of speculative euphoria. While the S&P 500 just ended the week a few points lower, historic advances in technology stocks and Bitcoin have been raging of late alongside some of the briskest credit business in decades. With the US economy expanding at a healthy clip, a Bloomberg-compiled portfolio tracking equities, Treasuries and corporate debt is poised for its best five-month performance since 2016.
            …
            https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-doom-prophesy-falls-203215926.html

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