The Idea Of Houses As Investments Narrative
A weekend topic starting with Fortune. “This is traditionally the time when home sales bloom. But 2023’s deep freeze begs the question of whether the warming will emerge from under an ice cube or an iceberg. Take the typical home value of $349,216, which is more than 40% higher than before the pandemic. It really comes down to the fact that ‘home price appreciation has far outpaced household income growth in recent years,’ as the Wells Fargo economics team put it. ‘Home values are now roughly five times higher than median household incomes, a stark change from the 3.5 ratio averaged historically,’ they wrote.”
12 News in Arizona. “A lack of affordable housing for workers in Sedona has resulted in the city creating a space where they can legally sleep in their cars overnight and have access to necessary amenities. To park in the safe zone, participants must show proof of employment in Sedona or enrollment in a local school. The safe parking zone will be open from 4 p.m.-8 a.m. and participants will be expected to pay a fee to park, city records show. Sedona’s leaders stressed they don’t want to see residents living out of their cars. But they believe the car park could be a feasible option until the city’s housing supply improves. A quick Zillow search shows the cheapest rental in Sedona is a 360-square-foot studio for $1,350 per month. The average home price is listed at over $930,000.”
ABC Action News in Florida. “John Pfanstiehl is often reminded of why he lives in Indian Rocks Beach. Over the past few years, however, he and others have had problems with some of their other neighbors — the very temporary ones who rent out homes here short-term through sites like Airbnb and VRBO. ‘People drunk coming home pounding on people’s doors because they don’t know which house they came out of,’ he said, in part. ‘Noise all the time. Lights on all night long.'”
WBRC in Alabama. “Changes are coming to the home buying and selling process. Friday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) agreed on a settlement that puts an end to the 6% commission on home buying or selling. Realtor Cody Cummings says this will trim the fat on an already saturated realtor market, meaning it is going to get a lot of agents who should not be in the industry out of the industry. ‘Last year was the lowest transaction volume across the country since 2009, and a lot of agents, 50% of agents sold one or fewer houses last year. So a lot of agents are on their way out anyway so I think this has just kind of furthered that,’ said Cummings.”
The Union Tribune in California. “San Diego homeowners could see a drop in the cost to sell properties after a historic settlement with a national real estate agent group. ‘There are some really good agents out there that keep you out of trouble,’ said Norm Miller, real estate professor at the University of San Diego. ‘For some buyers and sellers, it is worth the fee because the risk is so high. The problem is we have all these part-time, mediocre type agents out there that don’t know what they are doing.'”
KCTV in Missouri. “The standard 6% commission when selling a home is likely done for. ‘The people that I feel this is going to hurt the most, to be honest with you, are the low-income buyers,’ said David Conderman, the broker/owner of Keller Williams, Kansas City Metro. ‘It’s already difficult for a low-income buyer to compete against investors and cash offers out in the market place, and now they are going to have to find a realtor who is willing work with them,’ ‘I think what we should have done is go to our mortgage market. We needed to go to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, VA and talked about how we can include buyer’s compensation in a loan.'”
Fox 13 in Utah. “One agent said the possible changes could impact first-time home buyers, who could have to pay more for an agent because the commission would no longer come just from the seller. ‘They’re probably the folks that need the most help throughout the transaction and throughout the process,’ said real estate agent Terry Bailey. ‘But, the issue is, if they’re having to come out with the down payment, and your closing costs, and agent commission, it becomes very hefty and it becomes very difficult for especially first-time home buyers, to enter the market with representation.'”
The Wall Street Journal. “The new commission structure could pose challenges for first-time buyers and others who are struggling to save for a down payment. Because the buyer’s agent’s commission has long been baked into the sale price, the buyer was able to finance that cost over the length of the mortgage instead of having to pay it upfront at the closing table. ‘I think you are going to have first-time buyers that are just going to say, ‘I just can’t afford to pay you,’ said Ryan Gable, chief executive of StartingPoint Realty in the Chicago area. ‘Those are the people that need us the most, and a lot of them don’t have the money to pay us right away.'”
The Canadian Press. “Just like home prices, farmland prices rose across the country last year – up an average 11.5 per cent overall from the year before, down slightly from the previous year. Prices for cultivated farmland rose in every province tracked by Farm Credit Canada except for British Columbia. Analysts are reluctant to get into picking winners and losers from rising farmland values, but it’s clear from the numbers – average values in Canada have gone nowhere but up over the last 10 years, and by double-digit rates in nearly half of those – that landowners, who can be producers or investors, are the winners, especially when they cash out. On the flip side, depending on where in the province the land is located, higher prices make it that much tougher for younger farmers to break into the business and some producers to expand.”
The National Post in Canada. “According to Demographia’s 2023 survey of 94 major housing markets around the world, Toronto was the 10th least affordable. The region’s price-to-income ratio (‘median multiple’) has increased from 5.2 in 2010, to 9.5 today, making Toronto more expensive than virtually any American city outside California and Hawaii. For its part, Vancouver had the third-worst median multiple according to Demographia’s survey, trailing only Hong Kong and Sydney. Vancouver’s price-to-income ratio has increased from 5.3 in 2005 to 12 in 2023. Imagine this: Vancouver is pricier than London, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Chicago.”
The Globe and Mail. “It’s the Canadian way to believe in houses as an investment. In a recent RE/MAX poll, 73 per cent of participants said they believe home ownership is the best investment they can make in 2024, a similar number to last year. Now for a reality check. The national average housing price peaked at $816,720 in February, 2022, and then sank to $659,395 in January of this year. This drop of 19.3 per cent doesn’t kill the idea of houses as investments narrative, but it does offer some perspective.”
“Housing has been excellent in the past – the average annual increase in the national average resale price the past 10- and 20-year periods is roughly 6 per cent, according to Canadian Real Estate Association data. If a home is your principal residence, that gain is tax-free. But even with high levels of immigration, there’s reason to question if housing prices can keep up that pace of growth in a slow-growing economy where borrowing costs remain high.”
From News.com.au. “Dick Smith has blasted Australia’s latest record immigration figures for January as a ‘disaster for families,’ as the federal government faces growing calls to reduce the number of new arrivals to ease pressure on the housing market. Speaking to The Daily Telegraph, the legendary Aussie businessman slammed the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released on Thursday, which showed the country brought in a record 125,410 permanent and long-term arrivals in January. Even accounting for departures, the net increased of 55,330 was the highest January intake ever recorded.”
“‘Every Australian family has a population plan to have the number of children they can give a good life to, but at the rate we are going it means the average Australian family will have less,’ Mr Smith told the newspaper. ‘The problem is billionaire political donors have a short circuit in their brains, and all they want is unlimited population growth to grow their wealth. The question every Australian should be asking the federal government is — why did it choose to ramp-up immigration to record high levels when the supply-side of the housing market was clearly bottlenecked?'”
“He suggested the ‘unplanned mass migration approach is setting Australia up for an economic and humanitarian disaster, and actively undermines Australians who are struggling with rapidly rising house prices and rental costs. In addition, for the first time in 40 years, per capita GDP has gone down for four consecutive quarters, leaving Australians, at an individual level, in a recession,’ he said. ‘While the overall size of the economic pie may be growing, it is leaving Australians with an even smaller slice.'”
From Bloomberg. “There are so many apartments sitting empty in Chile that the government is considering stepping in to buy some. That’s an unusual move in a world where it’s a shortage of housing that is typically the problem. The pain points in Chile are restrictive mortgage terms and 14-year-high interest rates that have dragged down property sales. That’s leaving developers with an unprecedented number of empty apartments they still have to pay to maintain. Now, home prices are falling, construction workers are losing their jobs and real estate companies are filing for bankruptcy — effectively throwing the whole industry into crisis. Last year, 137 construction firms and 15 developers went bankrupt, while eight construction companies restructured their businesses. ‘This whole crisis made us realize that the real estate business is not going to be’ the same ever again, said Luis Carreño, chief executive officer of AThink Desarrollos Inmobiliarios.”
“Just in the capital of Santiago, the stock of unsold homes reached a record 68,000 mid-last year and has since slipped to 66,000, according to Chile’s construction chamber. And it’s not that there’s a glut of overpriced, luxury properties: About two-thirds of current inventory is aimed at the middle-class sector, according to José Ignacio Vicente, CEO of property platform Toctoc.com. His company estimates that it would take about two and a half years to sell all of the available homes in the capital at the current speed of sales.”
“Now, some developers are so squeezed that when buyers back out of deals they aren’t able to pay back deposits. Katherine Hernandez, a 32-year-old civil construction professional, has spent 10 months trying to get her deposit back after the developer of her apartment building suspended construction at all of its projects. ‘It’s not that much, but it’s my money and I need it back,’ Hernandez said.”
DPA International. “German real estate investment giant Vonovia slipped significantly deeper into the red last year as property values declined, reporting a loss in 2023 of nearly €6.8 billion ($7.4 billion). The company blamed the further devaluation of its real estate portfolio for the losses. Vonovia valued its rental property portfolio at around €83.9 billion at the end of December. A year earlier, the company put the value of that same portfolio at €94.7 billion. In 2022, Vonovia reported overall financial losses of around €669 million due to declining value of its portfolio.”
“‘We have never seen such a high reduction in value in the history of Germany as in 2023. This applies not only to Vonovia, but to everyone,’ said Vonovia chief executive Rolf Buch in a conference call. Real estate investment companies such as Vonovia and LEG have put new construction projects on hold for the time being. Buch said Vonovia would seek to reduce debt in the current year by selling off about €3 billion worth of residential buildings. Last year, the company generated around €4 billion from the sale of apartment buildings.”
“Vonovia grew dramatically during a long period of low interest rates up through 2022, buying numerous properties in Germany and across Europe and benefiting from rising rents in major cities. Vonovia also purchased Germany’s second-largest residential landlord, Deutsche Wohnen, in 2021. As Europe’s largest private residential real estate company, Vonovia owns a total of almost 546,000 flats in Germany, Sweden and Austria, of which around 485,000 are in Germany.”
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You will own nothing.
‘I think what we should have done is go to our mortgage market. We needed to go to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, VA and talked about how we can include buyer’s compensation in a loan’
You mean the way we’ve been doing it for decades Dave?
‘They’re probably the folks that need the most help throughout the transaction and throughout the process,’ said real estate agent Terry Bailey. ‘But, the issue is, if they’re having to come out with the down payment, and your closing costs, and agent commission, it becomes very hefty and it becomes very difficult for especially first-time home buyers’
‘down payment, and your closing costs, and agent commission’
One thing this lawsuit has exposed is a lot of costs are being rolled into the loan. Which makes it subprime.
Can the buyer hire a real estate attorney to help with the process? The buyer side agent in most cases goaded the buyer into paying more, without even a cursory inspection of the property, proper appraisal etc.
‘A lack of affordable housing for workers in Sedona has resulted in the city creating a space where they can legally sleep in their cars overnight and have access to necessary amenities’
I’ve looked at 3 or 4 articles on this. Not one mentioned the huge number of short term rentals in Sedona.
’73 per cent of participants said they believe home ownership is the best investment they can make in 2024, a similar number to last year. Now for a reality check. The national average housing price peaked at $816,720 in February, 2022, and then sank to $659,395 in January of this year. This drop of 19.3 per cent doesn’t kill the idea of houses as investments narrative, but it does offer some perspective’
Yeah, the whole sh$thole country took an a$$ pounding and most still act like lemmings.
“If a home is your principal residence, that gain is tax-free”
Really? I don’t know how things are in Canada, but here while that may be technically true, you got a whole lot of holding costs to deduct over the life of owning that property. Trust me, it’s being taxed.
Re-post from a few days ago.
The Guardian — American dream of owning a home is dead, majority of renters say (3/12/2024):
“Though the vast majority of renters polled said they want to own a home in the future, 61% said they are worried they will never be able to. A similar percentage believe no matter how hard they work, they’ll never be able to afford a home.
“When you think about Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, and housing is right at that foundational level of security, the implications on consumer psyche when things feel so unaffordable is something that will impact everyone,” said Libby Rodney, chief strategy officer at Harris Poll. The American dream of owning a home “is looking more like a daydream for renters.”
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/12/renters-poll-owning-home
61% is that a lot?
‘Though the vast majority of renters polled said they want to own a home in the future, 61% said they are worried they will never be able to. A similar percentage believe no matter how hard they work, they’ll never be able to afford a home.’
You will own nothing.
Wall Street Journal (paywall bypass link) — We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost (3/12/2024):
“A yearslong run of higher prices has unmoored many Americans’ expectations of what daily purchases should cost, from a cup of coffee to a package of paper towels. Shoppers are also put off by paying the same or higher prices for smaller amounts of stuff, what’s known as shrinkflation.
Altogether, those researchers say, people no longer feel they’re getting the value they once did, and that is souring the national mood.
The pace of inflation has slowed to 3.2% from its recent peak in June 2022, according to the Labor Department. But prices are still rising, just at a slower rate. They remain markedly higher than they were before the pandemic began, and Americans’ expectations for how much goods and services should cost haven’t caught up.
The Federal Reserve is pleased with its progress against inflation, but more than two-thirds of respondents to a late February Wall Street Journal poll said they felt inflation moved in the wrong direction over the past year. Meanwhile, wages are rising and consumer spending is robust, but nearly three-quarters of poll respondents said that higher prices outstripped gains in their household incomes in the past few years.”
https://archive.is/eOvmY
The wage increases for solid jobs in STEM will not come down. IMO, then the question is whether a recession will bring down the hourly wage and other “make-work” type jobs, especially those that depend on government cheese. This is why I think inflation will never drop to 2%, unless the CPI calculation is manipulated to an een greater extent than now.
The wage increases for solid jobs in STEM will not come down.
If you have a hot, in demand skill set then yed, they won’t come down. But if you are a run of the mill engineer or code monkey, I think they will.
Agreed. Twitter was laden with 75% phat.
This is One Seaport, a luxury tower that was meant to be a symbol of ambition. Now, it’s an abandoned eyesore, a multi-million-dollar testament to a construction nightmare. Lawsuits swirl, engineers scratching their heads, and potential residents turn away in disbelief.
How did a state-of-the-art skyscraper mega project end up tilting before it was even finished? 10 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXrGF-qgzmA
Cool video. That tower freaks me out even without the lean.
“How did a state-of-the-art skyscraper mega project end up tilting before it was even finished?”
The Leaning Tower of Seaport?
Has a soft landing arrived?
Financial Times
Charts that Matter Capital markets
Record low US options skew shows investor confidence on stock market rally
‘No one is really worried about small downturns,’ say investors
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange: an almost 25 per cent rise for Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index since the start of November has wrongfooted traders
George Steer in London 2 hours ago
A closely-watched gauge of stock market sentiment has hit its most extreme level since 2008, as options traders increasingly focus on capturing further gains in soaring indices rather than worrying about a potential sell-off.
An almost 25 per cent rise for Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index since the start of November has wrongfooted traders who had expected high interest rates to trigger a recession.
Many are now snapping up options tied to the S&P that profit if the market keeps on rising. At the same time, the strength of the rally, which has come in spite of higher than forecast inflation in January and February, has meant that investors have largely opted against purchasing options that protect them against market falls.
…
abcnews
Home sellers are cutting list prices as spring buying season starts with higher mortgage rates
More homeowners eager to sell their home are lowering their initial asking price in a bid to entice prospective buyers as the spring homebuying season gets going
By ALEX VEIGA AP Business Writer
March 14, 2024, 2:26 PM ET
• 3 min read
LOS ANGELES — More homeowners eager to sell their home are lowering their initial asking price in a bid to entice prospective buyers as the spring homebuying season gets going.
Some 14.6% of U.S. homes listed for sale last month had their price lowered, according to Realtor.com. That’s up from 13.2% a year earlier, the first annual increase since May. In January, the percentage of homes on the market with price reductions was 14.7%.
…
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/wireStory/home-sellers-cutting-list-prices-spring-buying-season-108150404
Is it fair practice to maintain a stopped-clock crash prediction, then claim you nailed the call when a crash eventually happens?
US MARKETS
DOW JONES -0.49%
NASDAQ -1.15%
S&P 500 -0.65%
‘We are still in a market bubble’: A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns the S&P 500 is as vulnerable as it was before its 25% fall in 2022 — and shares 3 signs of hidden weakness
William Edwards Mar 16, 2024, 2:17 AM PDT
Stock trades 1987 Black Monday
AP/Peter Morgan
David Rosenberg isn’t giving up on his stock-market bubble call.
The famed economist who called the 2008 recession while working for Merrill Lynch said in a note to his Rosenberg Research clients on Friday that he’s increasingly convinced the S&P 500 is overextended, and that a day of reckoning awaits somewhere down the line, even if it won’t be in the immediate future.
“If I was skeptical a year ago, I remain even more so now,” Rosenberg said. “I don’t tend to chase manias, and I never chase bubbles. I have and always will preach the preservation of capital and preservation of cash flows, including diversification. Just because the current valuation backdrop isn’t as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980.”
He continued: “Momentum-driven markets can be very powerful beasts over the near term, but fundamentals always win out, and the starting point for the multiple always and everywhere acts as either a long-term tailwind when they are in the bottom 10% or a headwind when they are in the top 10%, as is the case today.”
Rosenberg cited his proprietary US Equity Model as one piece of evidence that stocks are in a bad place. The model considers valuations, technical indicators, investor sentiment, and investor positioning. Right now, it’s at its most extreme bearish levels, he said, just as it was in January 2022 before the market dropped 25% over the following nine months.
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-recession-risks-2008-rosenberg-2024-3
“…valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980.”
Plus the bulls missed the memo that Powell et al. took away the punch bowl. Don’t let those long-and-variable lags hit you in the arse as you race towards the exit.
Events like this have become a near daily occurrence:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/15/united-flight-from-sfo-missing-external-panel-after-landing-in-oregon.html
It’s only a matter of time before there is a catastrophic event with loss of life. It is clear that United has become so converged that it’s affecting its ability to safely fly. This is more than just a streak of “bad luck”.
As long as it’s a $69 one-way flight, who cares?
Is there still such a thing? The last few times I traveled I had to pay through the nose.
Following Cockroach Theory, there may be many more scary incidents behind the scenes that don’t bubble up in MSM reporting.
It’s all good…people afraid to fly helps keep the cost of air travel reasonable.
Following Cockroach Theory, there may be many more scary incidents behind the scenes that don’t bubble up in MSM reporting.
It’s somewhat easy the memory hole lesser incidents, but once the crashes begin, that will be impossible.
MarketWatch (3/15/2024):
“As many as 28% of Americans have nothing saved for their retirement, 39% aren’t contributing to a retirement fund and another 30% don’t think they’ll ever be able to retire. That’s according to a new GoBankingRates survey.
How much is needed for a secure retirement varies by person and situation, of course. But a study from Northwestern Mutual in 2022 found that U.S. adults anticipate they will need $1.25 million to retire comfortably, while a 2023 Schroders survey put the figure at about $1.1 million.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/zero-thats-how-much-28-of-the-country-has-saved-for-retirement-9cc31bc5?mod=home-page
28% is that a lot?
“Motor vehicles saw some of the most pronounced and persistent price increases during the pandemic inflationary episode, as supply chains and chip shortages limited production,” according to a New York Federal Reserve report. “During this spell, auto loan balances ballooned.”
Now, here comes the bust.
That willingness to pay over MSRP may cost buyers dearly if they need to trade in a vehicle they still owe on. A growing number of Americans have gotten caught in this negative equity loop: They’re upside-down, meaning they owe more on their loans than the cars are worth.
Here’s why that’s a problem.
Nearly half of new-car purchases involve a trade-in, according to Edmunds.
This reverses the trend of the last few years when dealers paid extraordinarily high prices for used vehicles because they were desperate for inventory.
The economics have changed quite a bit, said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.
“Some people got accustomed to the idea that the dealer would buy the car off of me for the same price that I bought it last year because a year and a half ago, that’s what they did,” Drury said.
The share of borrowers paying $1,000 or more a month swelled to 17.9 percent, also a record, during that period. That compares with 15.7 percent for the same three months of 2022.
There’s another problem that may be brewing — auto loan delinquencies.
“Loans opened during 2022 and 2023 are, so far, performing worse than loans opened in earlier years, perhaps because buyers during these years faced higher car prices and may have been pressed to borrow more, and at higher interest rates,” according to the New York Fed.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/more-car-owners-are-underwater-on-loans-because-of-lower-trade-in-values/ar-BB1jWwbo
Four Philippine nationals living in Los Angeles have been sentenced in federal court for an elaborate $8 million scheme that arranged more than 600 sham marriages, circumvented immigration laws and obtained green cards by falsely claiming undocumented clients were abused by their American spouses.
Earlier this month, U.S. District Court Judge Denise J. Casper in Massachusetts sentenced ringleader Marcialito Biol Benitez, 50, to 22 months in prison and three years of supervised release for the scam that operated from October 2016 to March 2022.
Co-defendants Engilbert Ulan, 43, received a 14-month prison sentence, and Juanita Pacson, 48, was placed on four months of house arrest followed by two years of supervised release.
Another co-defendant, 47-year-old Nino Valmeo, received six months of home detention and three years of supervised release.
All four were convicted in 2023 of conspiracy to commit marriage fraud and immigration document fraud. Additionally, several other co-defendants were previously sentenced for their roles in the scam that involved at least one foreign national living in Massachusetts.
“This case is a prime example of multiple agencies working as a team to uphold and protect our country’s lawful immigration system,” Alanna Ow, director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for the San Diego District, said in a statement after the indictments were handed down.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/4-la-residents-sentenced-in-8-million-scheme-that-performed-600-sham-weddings-for-green-cards/ar-BB1jYR4N
scam that operated from October 2016 to March 2022.
Obviously they are right on top of things.
The Federalist — HHS Secretary Refuses To Explain Why ‘Hardworking Americans’ Should Pay For Illegals’ Healthcare (3/14/2024):
“Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra refused to explain Thursday why “hardworking Americans should pay” for foreign lawbreakers’ healthcare when grilled by Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso.
Barrasso detailed how cities are being overwhelmed by illegal immigrants draining their resources and putting a massive strain on health funds and infrastructure, noting Denver Health saw more than 20,000 illegally present foreigners seeking medical care in 2023. Denver Health is “at a critical, critical point” as costs pile up, CEO Donna Lynne said, according to Becker’s Hospital Review.
“Can you please explain why it is the responsibility of hard-working American taxpayers to foot the bill for all of this care for people, nine million now, from all across the world who have flooded their way into the United States?”
“What I could tell you is that we have extended the resources and authorities that we have at HHS to try to be there to help any healthcare facility when there is a way that we can go in to be supportive. I don’t know of a particular case that you might want to mention, but I know that we are prepared to be supportive of any facility where the authorities that you have given us allow us to go in and support,” Becerra responded.
“The federal government doesn’t pay for the health care of every legal U.S. citizen,” Barrasso shot back. “It seems like it’s in the position now of having to do it all for these illegal immigrants. Why should the American citizen be forced to pay for illegal migrants to receive this same care for free? Because that’s what’s happening.”
https://thefederalist.com/2024/03/14/hhs-secretary-refuses-to-explain-why-americans-should-pay-for-illegals-healthcare/
A reader sent these in:
Many boomers with ‘wealth’ acquired it from being at the right place & right time, luck, controlling the political decision making for self benefits, ZIRP, and by being apart of the most selfish generation in American history. Now they’re pulling up the ladder as they live it their ‘golden days’ so everyone else gets nothing but $50+ tn in debt when they’re finished with us… Reality shifts when you understand this.
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1768655982257721674
Tyson Foods is aiming to replace thousands of its American workforce with migrants – offering them legal immigration assistance, low pay, and healthcare.
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1768632735000576472
Supply is arriving—right as layoffs are ticking up and mortgage rates pop back up over 7% 😬
Where Inventories grew the most:
Dallas (38.8%)
Tampa (30.7%)
Orlando (29.5%)
https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1768637681230377237
Larry Fink gets #bitcoin
“It’s a great long term store of value”
“It’s bigger than any government”
https://twitter.com/marcfriedrich7/status/1767293872747524147
🤔
https://twitter.com/great_martis/status/1768572748169912368
If ur having a bad day Just remember Micheal saylor lost 2 billion in 2hrs. Store of value 😆 🤣 😂
https://twitter.com/great_martis/status/1768571608892051681
Dreamworks Animations faces ‘massive job cuts’: “Half of every department if not more is getting cut” – source
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1768673014931939788
US economic growth is one lady in DC issuing debt like there’s no tomorrow and 500 guys AI coding in one building in California.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1768634715467026571
More soft landing news.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1768618331236347945
Global equities just recorded their largest week of inflows in three years, totaling $55.7 billion. US stock funds saw $56 billion of inflows alone, surpassing the previous high on March 2021: TD Securities data
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1768564166573326660
Preliminary consumer sentiment is roughly flat for Mar, now stalled out for last couple months only halfway back to pre-pandemic levels as short- and long-term inflation expectations remain stuck ~3% – people don’t believe the Fed’s whole 2% target anymore, and for good reason:
https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1768654106355273971
Never has so much been asked for so little; housing market remains frozen from interest rate and price shocks, although percent of active listings w/ price drops is rising – fast…
https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1768625812486422585
Pending home sales are shockingly low relative to number of realtors trying to sell those homes; even if you don’t think there’s a housing bubble, there’s definitely a realtor bubble – guess they’ll have to go back to whatever they were doing before becoming realtors…
https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1768624960405164468
NY Fed: literally nothing good in today’s manufacturing report as every indicator shows faster Mar decline in the sector; new orders (canary in coalmine) fell again, inventories dwindled, both employment and workweek fell too; capital spending remains soft, and optimism subdued:
https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1768620403872719297
Canada is starting to fall apart as well. More listing come across my email everyday. But sellers are in denial and ask for way too much..a matter of time and they will all be undercutting each other. Not many Canadians can afford anything more than rent and food
https://twitter.com/miningstockpicz/status/1768789139594588181
Prepare yourself! We are very close to a screaming red headline that the market has priced out (below 50%) a June cut (blue). After this week’s Payroll, CPI, and PPI beats, it is at just 54% (see the March 7 vertical dotted line).
If June falls below 50%, I think July (red) will eventually fall below 50% (again, it’s too political to START then; it’s between the conventions) unless the market and/or crude oil collapse or some other unforeseen crisis changes this equation.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1768664239286165563
Bank of Japan to lift interest rates for the first time in 17 years due to wage increases, per the Nikkei.
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1768690740752978123
Layoffs rose to the highest for any February since 2009, per CNBC.
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1768623683801846216
Middle managers make up a growing share of layoffs.
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1768617909423681883
90% of the real estate agents in the country could quit tomorrow…and there would still be too many. Is there a profession with a lower barrier to entry?
https://twitter.com/ServiceRevealed/status/1768679592963764597
As usual, housing costs kill everyone’s budget and makes everyone poor other than the landlards. For the record I am not a communist or a socialist. But that’s the current reality
https://twitter.com/NipseyHoussle/status/1768742073711124586
The Fed still owns $2.4 TRILLION of mortgage-backed securities, vs. zero in 2008. That is all.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1768715237719712037
Zelman take on @nardotrealtor suits me just fine
*lower average commission rates moving forward
*many low-quality, low-producing agents will leave profession
*higher average agent commission splits given the aforementioned mix shift & competitive industry dynamics
https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1768726935130231266
Equitable Bank’s mortgage arrears rate triples amid surge in renewals
https://twitter.com/REWoman/status/1768362361209905391
Unemployment rate jumped to 3.9, January payrolls revised down by 30% , retail sales below expectations but we change fed cut forecasts because used cars and gas prices bumped higher? So the Fed now cares about the used car market? Weekly changes in gas? Or they focus on core pce and the consumer. One would hope they are more worried about the 51% living check to check with no savings and maxed out high rate credit cards who can’t afford a home
https://twitter.com/GMillerMortgage/status/1768657878628393120
US population growth is a shocking chart
Nearing 0% levels = almost NO growth
Current levels have NEVER been seen since 1901
This is worse than even the Great Depression
https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1768664703700730147
Looks like Blackstone needs bagholders.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1768658791988609129
A 1.3 million-sf #office property in #Chicago backing a $100 million #CMBS loan receives its third reduction in appraised value. The value was reduced to $67.7 million, down from $90 million in January 2023.
https://twitter.com/TreppWire/status/1767960818514055623
As of year-end 2023, there have never been more housing units than households in US history. Just saying.
https://twitter.com/Econimica/status/1768625464774689143
Manufacturing is dying…inflation is broadening…and the kids are trading a coin called “Joe Boeden”
https://twitter.com/Will_DeCotiis/status/1768616553883275704
How Did Real Estate Get So Screwed Up In Canada? Because It’s Really Screwed Up
House Prices Are Batshit Crazy, Immigration is at its highest levels in decades, we will build FEWER homes to buy this year than previous years & Mortgage Rates remain at 20 year highs
Disaster
https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1767903919143780579
“Local’s Frustration Boils Over Amidst Rising Housing Costs and Immigration Debates.” 👇🏽
https://twitter.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1768642557699907606
In private business it would be called accounting fraud, in government it’s called revisions and corrections.
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1768683785623642453
BANK CREDIT HAS COLLAPSED. THE LAST TIME WE OBSERVED THIS TYPE OF CONTRACTION WAS DURING THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS
https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1768634577356980681
Austin real estate agents losing the 6% of your home’s value to email a docusign…
https://twitter.com/MajorHedgeFund/status/1768692216350863785
Leaked photo of the Boeing $BA factory assembly line
https://twitter.com/JesseCohenInv/status/1768665929431298525
Never forget this internal Boeing email. If the government doesn’t do something, we’re going to have a disaster.
https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1768768175557030258
MORE COMPANIES HAVE DEFAULTED ON THEIR DEBT IN 2024 THAN IN ANY START TO THE YEAR SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
You surprised?
https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1768324327076762067
The real estate industry is actively lobbying against Texas legislation that would ban corporate/Wall Street Buyers from the market:
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1768804468395491533
I strongly support free markets. But this corporate large-scale buying of residential homes seems to be distorting the market and making it harder for the average Texan to purchase a home. This must be added to the legislative agenda to protect Texas families.
https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1768673524711845921
Over 30% of small banks’ balance sheets is CRE of unknown toxicity, but less than 7% of the balance sheets at big banks – always good to know where a bomb is before it goes off:
https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1768807642602844432
Given the insanely high ratio today of realtors to homes for sale, maybe a mass exodus of agents is the goal…
…food for thought.
https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1768802208844222894
Fed Transparency®
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1489672770044641283
Hey, your Uber Eats order is here.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1226645616249298944
You know the jingle. 🎶
https://twitter.com/ForAmerica/status/1768806485256024240
“One would hope they are more worried about the 51% living check to check with no savings and maxed out high rate credit cards who can’t afford a home”
Paul Krugman certainly isn’t worried about them.
Tyson Foods is aiming to replace thousands of its American workforce with migrants
Didn’t this already happen 5-10 years ago?
Didn’t this already happen 5-10 years ago?
Agreed, most meat packing is already done by illegals or other low skilled immigrants. The jobs in Greeley pay $22/hr, which is only a bit more than what burger flippers get around here.
” …Wells Fargo economics team put it. ‘Home values are now roughly five times higher than median household incomes, a stark change from the 3.5 ratio averaged historically,’ they wrote.””
Average over what period? If it’s the last decade-and-a-half, home prices were already outpacing incomes. What we’re seeing now isn’t a sudden increase in home prices from a ‘normal’ basis. It’s been a longer term fast-paced ascent, that got a more recent shot in the arm. The long period of a low cost to borrow led the ascent.
There’s not doubt the system used for valuations needs overhauling. Using ‘comps’, especially when inventory is low, just stretches the boundaries of what the market can bear pricing out a large section of the population.
Etiquette advice, publication date unknown:
https://ibb.co/zsLXdtN
“Be careful not to speak upon subjects of which you are ill-informed.”
or
“It’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt.” – Mark Twain ·
The demo house is the gift that keeps on giving.
Next scheduled task: scoop out 12-18″ of soot, debris, and unburned household goods from the floor of the garage with a shovel and by hand into a wheelbarrow and roll it 50 feet into a dumpster.
Can’t you rent a small skidder for a day?
Can’t you rent a small skidder for a day?
Henry David Thoreau did it to prove a point. Or something.
n 2001, the home’s address was changed and a privacy fence was in installed. It was purchased by the current owners in 2004 for $1.05 million, reports The Denver Post.
https://www.courttv.com/news/colorado-home-where-jonbenet-ramsey-was-found-dead-listed-for-sale
Holder: Media Will Change Coverage and That’ll Help Biden Win
IAN HANCHETT
16 Mar 2024
On Friday’s broadcast of HBO’s “Real Time,” former Attorney General Eric Holder commented on President Joe Biden’s poll numbers by stating that “as the media turns its attention to making this a binary choice between a person who’s got some age and cognitive issues — that would be Trump — against somebody who has actually accomplished a lot, I think we’ll do just fine.”
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2024/03/16/holder-media-will-change-coverage-and-thatll-help-biden-win/
[Here is a fun chart …]
https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1765350364671611198
[Here is another fun chart …]
https://www.axios.com/2023/01/11/credit-card-interest-rates-hit-record-high
‘Home values are now roughly five times higher than median household incomes, a stark change from the 3.5 ratio averaged historically’
This includes places that you can still buy a shack for 35k. Note how they don’t go into when the increase even happened or show how they calculated it.
‘the buyer’s agent’s commission has long been baked into the sale price, the buyer was able to finance that cost over the length of the mortgage instead of having to pay it upfront at the closing table. ‘I think you are going to have first-time buyers that are just going to say, ‘I just can’t afford to pay you,’ said Ryan Gable, chief executive of StartingPoint Realty in the Chicago area. ‘Those are the people that need us the most, and a lot of them don’t have the money to pay us right away’
It’s the grease that makes the mania run Ryan. Thanks for again showing how much the market relies on over 100% loans.
Maybe retiring to Oil City ain’t all that?
Real Estate
We moved from California to Iowa and thought it would be way cheaper. We stayed less than 2 years before returning to California’s sunny weather.
As told to Erin Snodgrass
Mar 16, 2024, 8:11 AM ET
Wendy and Kury Meyer pose for a photo together in California.
Courtesy of Wendy Meyer
– Wendy and Kurt Meyer moved from Mission Viejo, California, to Washington, Iowa, in 2021.
– They thought the Hawkeye State would be cheaper than it was and missed California’s sunny weather.
– The couple moved back to Mission Viejo in December 2023 and they never want to leave again.
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/moved-from-california-iowa-retire-stayed-less-than-2-years-2024-3
No doubt they also missed all the homeless and illegals.
That article reads like a propaganda piece.
^ Bought 1/4 acre lot with utilities in Oil City for less than what I paid for my car.
The listing had been active for less than a week when I offered asking, sight unseen.
Nothing is stopping the 61% in the Guardian piece I posted above from trying this…
But what about the walk scores?
Did you actually do this, or are you just on a lark?
He has been posting tear down pictures of the burned out shanty on the property. Removing the debris and detritus looks like quite the project. Being out in the sticks there isn’t a home depot nearby where he could pick up a couple of illegals to do it
“Removing the debris and detritus looks like quite the project.”
It is quite the project and he is kicking @ss.
I believe he has done most if not all the work himself and I would be willing to bet when the project is complete it will be a pretty awesome place to escape to and ultimately retire.
‘reluctant to get into picking winners and losers from rising farmland values, but it’s clear from the numbers – average values in Canada have gone nowhere but up over the last 10 years, and by double-digit rates in nearly half of those – that landowners, who can be producers or investors, are the winners, especially when they cash out. On the flip side, depending on where in the province the land is located, higher prices make it that much tougher for younger farmers to break into the business and some producers to expand’
The zero interest thing has a way of turning winnahs! into losers:
Sacramento-based Blue Diamond Growers recently eliminated 38 corporate jobs in layoffs aimed at remaining cost efficient “under heightened pressure,” the cooperative of almond farmers said.
Blue Diamond, a cooperative of more than 3,000 farmers, is one of the largest almond producers in the world. It processes the almonds it buys from the farmers at plants in Sacramento and in the Central Valley at locations in Salida and Turlock.
In the fall, Blue Diamond President and CEO Kai Bockmann said the almond cooperative faced “significant challenges” in its latest fiscal year, which ended Aug. 25 with a 21% decline in net sales from a year earlier. He said those challenges included an oversupply of almonds, inflationary pressures, depressed market prices and shifts in consumer shopping patterns.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/sacramento-based-blue-diamond-growers-cuts-38-corporate-jobs-in-a-round-of-layoffs/ar-BB1jN7DS
which ended Aug. 25 with a 21% decline in net sales from a year earlier
Sounds like inflation ravaged grocery shoppers are having to cut luxury items from their shopping lists as they tighten their belts.
Almonds are nice, but potatoes, cabbage, carrots, and eggs are necessary.
‘We have never seen such a high reduction in value in the history of Germany as in 2023. This applies not only to Vonovia, but to everyone’
Wa happened to my shortage Rolf?
15 MINUTES WITH ANITA O’DAY
Buzz Stephens
10 years ago
One of the most original and unique voices of 20th century jazz.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJo27hMi4EU
Dimash Kudaibergen, Sinful Passion (sung in Russian):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9FlDMCo8LU&ab_channel=DimashQudaibergen
0:53
Tucker Carlson
@TuckerCarlson
This is Rep. Dan Crenshaw as he walks out of the Capitol after voting to give Joe Biden the power to shut down news sites that dare to challenge him. Crenshaw tells reporter Liam Cosgrove that U.S. intel agencies don’t meddle in domestic news coverage, when of course he knows that’s untrue. Watch his face as he says it. Liar.
https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1768692526523777065?s=20
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
This law is not just about TikTok, it is about censorship and government control!
If it were just about TikTok, it would only cite “foreign control” as the issue, but it does not.
Thomas Massie
@RepThomasMassie
·
Mar 12
The so-called TikTok ban is a trojan horse.
The President will be given the power to ban WEB SITES, not just Apps.
The person breaking the new law is deemed to be the U.S. (or offshore)
Show more
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1767540775762411525?s=20
RE: 50% of agents sold one or fewer houses last year
Does it translate into one or none? . . .
RE: mediocre type agents . . . that don’t know what they are doing.
If our taxpayer-supported Congress and Federal Reserve can be expected to conduct their businesses without knowing what they are doing then what is so wrong about RE agents doing the same? . . .