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It Is A Very Difficult Minefield And We Will Have Made No Money

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The price of newly built homes plunged last month as homebuilders sought ways to attract buyers who are feeling the pinch of higher mortgage rates. The median sales price of a newly constructed home dropped 7.6% year over year, to $400,500 in February, according to a report on Monday from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing. This was the lowest median price since June 2021. ‘A slight uptick in mortgage rates held back the pace of new-home sales in February,’ says National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz. ‘Our latest builder surveys show that roughly one-quarter of builders reported cutting home prices in March.'”

“A significant number of Florida’s homeowners and agents trying to offload their properties are trying to attract buyers with the promise of not having to pay for flood insurance—an appealing prospect as the state faces an ongoing insurance crisis. ‘No flood insurance required,’ mentioned the listing for another four-bedroom home in New Port Richey, on sale for $528,000 after a recent price cut of $12,000. Another three-bedroom home on sale for $498,000 in Rotonda West specifies in its description that the home does not need flood coverage ‘as it is in an X flood zone,’ the listing reads. The property has seen a price cut of $26,000 since it was first put on the market on Zillow. The listing for a single-family home in North Port for sale for $549,000 after a price reduction of $35,000 boasts about ‘no flood insurance required in X flood zone, with no water bill, no deed restrictions, no HOA rules or fees, and no CDD fees.'”

“Laura James’s Breckenridge home is dotted with 45 years of family memories. In 2016, James and her husband decided to purchase the property from James’s parents, taking on the mortgage. They had every intention of making new memories by keeping it in the family. In order to afford the property in addition to their primary residence in Colorado Springs, James said they turned to short-term renting. But now, under new short-term rental regulations in Summit County, James said they’re concerned about the ability to hold onto their Breckenridge property. It comes as James’s expenses continue to rise, a trend that, should it continue, may mean she has no choice but to sell. ‘We are absolutely at risk, with the projected 42% decrease in revenue, of losing our family home and our family heritage,’ James said.”

“After a battle in court between the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and home sellers, the NAR agreed this month to pay $418 million over roughly four years to resolve all claims against the group. Most notably, buyers would need to come up with their realtor’s commission payout, a rate of about three percent nationally. ‘They can’t come up with enough money for the down payment, plus closing costs, now we’re telling them that they also have to pay the realtor commission. It’s going to kill the market in all reality,’ said Bianco Realty licensed realtor Judy Maslowski.”

“Anger, accusations and legal action are firing up on the Big Island after a construction company built a half-million-dollar house on the wrong property. The lot owner doesn’t want the house and has endured problems like higher taxes and squatters. Now, to add insult to injury, she’s being sued over someone else’s mistake. The still vacant three-bedroom, two-bath house on a one-acre lot in Puna’s Hawaiian Paradise Park is worth about $500,000. But it could cost a lot of people more than that as they head to court to sort it out. It all started in 2018, when Annaleine ‘Anne’ Reynolds thought she’d found the perfect, serene parcel in Paradise Park to host her meditative healing women’s retreats. But while she waited in California through the pandemic for the right time to use it, the lot was bulldozed and a house rose on the property. She was unaware of the construction until she got a call last year from a real estate broker who had learned the mistake. ‘And then he informed me, ‘oh well, I just sold the house, and it happens to be on your property,’ Reynolds recalled. ‘So we need to resolve this. And I’m like, what? Are you kidding me?'”

“Beverly Grove Place, a quaint enclave adjacent to Beverly Hills, has long been a coveted address for the rich and famous. However, shock waves rippled through the neighborhood when reports surfaced of squatters taking up residence at 1316 Beverly Grove Place from October 2023 to February 2024, according to Curbed. They were opportunistic grifters, exploiting a neglected mansion to masquerade as affluent socialites and host extravagant soirees. Efforts to seek redress were stymied at every turn, with law enforcement citing civil matters and legal complexities. The frustration felt by residents was palpable, with one lamenting, ‘Welcome to California, thanks liberals.'”

“Being a landlord used to be lucrative for us. We could make a little bit of money on top of the rent, but that is no longer the reality. We are only just breaking even, and sometimes we have to pay from our pocket to pay the mortgage fees. My husband and I both have full-time jobs. We started buying property in 2007, and we have added more as the years have gone on. Now we have four rental properties. The past two years have been very difficult. Six years ago, the mortgage on one of our properties in Kent was £196 a month. That has gone up to £500. Now our mortgage deal is up for renewal once again but costs are becoming crazy. The cost of the mortgages across all our properties in Kent, Essex and London have risen by 20 to 40 per cent.”

“It is such a big gamble. The markets are very volatile and we never know how they are going to react. The interest rates are supposed to be coming down, but have they? It is a very difficult minefield and causes a lot of stress. After we have paid the mortgages, the service charges, the estate agency fees, and then the yearly tax on our properties, we will have made no money.”

“Hutchinson Builders chairman Scott Hutchinson said several high-rise projects in Brisbane had stalled indefinitely because they were no longer feasible at current prices. He said many builders were waiting for the boom to subside or costs to fall before resuming those projects. He said there was no way of telling when that would be. Mr Hutchinson said he was fearful for the future of Australia’s building sector. ‘A lot have collapsed and there’s more to come,’ he said. ‘There’s pressure on, we’re seeing it every day, and the subcontractors are going broke too.'”

“One of China’s biggest property firms delayed its earnings report while another posted a record profit decline as the nation’s real estate crisis shows no signs of easing. Country Garden Holdings Co., once the nation’s top residential builder by sales, made a surprise announcement late Thursday that it will miss a deadline for reporting annual results, saying it needs more information. China Vanke Co., at one time the largest listed developer, said net profit tumbled 46% last year, the biggest drop since its 1991 listing. China’s property sector ‘will likely register the first time net loss since our coverage,’ said Raymond Cheng, head of China property research at CGS International Securities HK. ‘We remain cautious on the sector until developers’ sales improve.'”

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This Post Has 76 Comments

  1. ‘Most notably, buyers would need to come up with their realtor’s commission payout, a rate of about three percent nationally. ‘They can’t come up with enough money for the down payment, plus closing costs, now we’re telling them that they also have to pay the realtor commission. It’s going to kill the market in all reality’

    This is in North Dakota. This statement is closer to the reality: they were rolling all these costs into the loan.

    1. “Most notably, buyers would need to come up with their realtor’s commission payout, a rate of about three percent nationally.”

      Who agreed to 3%? Did you agree to 3%? I know I didn’t agree to 3%. How about you accept the flat fee of my choosing and a sack lunch at the end of the deal.

      1. Biyer has always paid the agent commissions on both sides even without a buyers agent the price of one was baked in. The leeches were embedded in the sale and could be extricated. RE Agents need to go the way of travel agents. Optional and mostly avoided.

      2. “I know I didn’t agree to 3%.”

        Yes, that’s why the NAR lost the court case yuugly. It was a monopolistic practice and the customer was captive to that 3%.

        But I don’t think we’ve seen the last of the 3% buyers fee. Instead, I think the mortgage originators will step up (at the behest of the NAR) and *still* roll the 3% into the mortgage loan. Buyers who don’t like it may find themselves blacklisted by a local pool of buyer’s agents.

        1. No buyers agent is needed. Ever. Never has been. There’s no requirement that says you have to be represented by a buyers agent. People have just been led to believe that is the case. You can go directly to the listing agent yourself if you want. And if you’re afraid of a conflict of interest or not being represented, then here’s what you do. Find a starving agent (and there’s plenty of them, growing in number every day) and you tell them you’re going to be buying a house and once you negotiate the deal you’d like some help with the paperwork. I used to offer them $1000 bucks just to cross the t’s and dot the i’s. In a market like right now you’ll get a lot who will say yes to that. It’s maybe an hour or two worth of work. And here’s another thing. A lot of escrow agents will walk you through the process too if they’re the one handling the escrow. Or hire a real estate lawyer at $500 bucks an hour. Still gonna be cheaper than 3%. It has always been such a @#$&-ing joke. Don’t get me started on the appraisal process.

          1. Go straight to the listing agent that’s what I did plus the listing agent knowing they will collect double fee throws other offers away . Short sale so it was a long process.

  2. ‘Country Garden Holdings Co., once the nation’s top residential builder by sales, made a surprise announcement late Thursday that it will miss a deadline for reporting annual results, saying it needs more information’

    Oh dear…

    1. that it will miss a deadline for reporting annual results,

      This is never a good sign. As everyone already assumes, there must be major issues.

  4. “45 years of family memories …

    purchase the property from James’s parents, taking on the mortgage …

    concerned about the ability to hold onto their Breckenridge property …

    ‘We are absolutely at risk … of losing our family home and our family heritage”

    Your family heritage is intergenerational debt.

    Where did the cash out refi and HELOC money go, Laura?

    Laura James you are a parasite.

    1. “cash out refi and HELOC money”

      After 45 years of memories… you bet there was a cash-out. 💯

  6. Man, 63, evicted from home points gun at deputies, gets shot, St. Lucie County sheriff says

    By: Matt Papaycik , Dave Bohman
    Posted at 11:49 AM, Mar 28, 2024

    FORT PIERCE, Fla. — A man who had been evicted from a St. Lucie County home was shot by a “highly decorated” deputy after pointing a gun at him, Sheriff Keith Pearson said Thursday.

    Pearson said that earlier in the day, at about 1:30 p.m., deputies served a court-ordered eviction at the home and removed George Jeffrey Evans, 63, from the property.

    According to deputies, the owner of the unit where Evans was staying was acquired through a foreclosure sale last year.

    https://www.wptv.com/news/treasure-coast/region-st-lucie-county/deputy-involved-shooting-update-3-28-24

    1. “was shot by a “highly decorated” deputy after pointing a gun at him”

      Copy editor FAIL. Who pointed the gun, the squatter or the deputy?

      Good thing the headline made it clear.

  7. “The median sales price of a newly constructed home dropped 7.6% year over year, to $400,500 in February, according to a report on Monday from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing. This was the lowest median price since June 2021.”

    Dang supply and demand has tipped new home price growth to negative. What will that mean for comparable used home prices?

    1. are sales prices coming down because of the carrying costs (to the builder)?

      Or are they trying to firm up their balance sheet for the stock market?

  8. ‘They can’t come up with enough money for the down payment, plus closing costs, now we’re telling them that they also have to pay the realtor commission. It’s going to kill the market in all reality,’

    Magic eight ball says more affordable (aka lower) housing prices will result.

  9. And it’s another one. Almost every day now…

    “United Airlines confirmed to FOX31 that a flight from San Francisco to Paris had to land at Denver International Airport Thursday evening.

    Crew members on the Boeing 777-200 reported having an issue with one engine. Even though the issues were reported, United said the flight did not declare an emergency landing, but emergency services were standing by for the plane’s arrival as a precaution.

    United said the flight landed safely, and all 273 passengers and 12 crew members deplaned.

    Since the flight was canceled upon arrival in Denver, passengers are still waiting for their next available flight to Paris. United said it is working with customers to find flight options on Friday.”

    https://kdvr.com/news/local/engine-issues-cause-boeing-plane-to-divert-to-denver-mid-flight/

    Secretary Pete was too busy chestfeeding the baby and could not be reached for comment.

    2. So, why is this all United Airlines? If this were a Boeing problem, then why don’t we see this for flights with Southwest, or Ryan Air, or even Qantas?

      1. Because something is rotten at United. The 777 incidents are interesting, as that type is supposed to be bullet proof. Three years ago an engine cowling fell off a United 777 shortly after takeoff in Denver and landed in a neighborhood. The incident was ruled a “contained engine failure”. Now we all know that things like that can happen, but United seems to be suffering from a lot of “bad luck” lately.

    3. Secretary Pete was too busy chestfeeding the baby and could not be reached for comment.
      Chestfeeding!! Ah a classic!

  10. With today’s marketplace online ads stuff, real estate agents are often redundent , their only needed expertise is if a bank is involved …I can advertise my own property for whatever I want, often for much more then any real estate agent, looking for the quick sell, would list it for, and the all-cash crowd will pay more for it then anyone can imagine ……Win, Win for the seller….

    1. Yep. Sold my own house. Took my own pics and put on Zillow. Found a buyer looking in my area via Facebook. Told buyer I wasn’t paying commission – I would handle my agent fees (friend just helped me do the paperwork), they need to handle theirs. Easy breezy.

    2. Also, in SC you can legally write up and file your own property Deed, though it’s quite rare , I do know a local wheeler dealer who does that,for his own property only…though it’s the banks that won’t usually accept that…it can be done …..it took him about 5 trys , and a friendly courthouse recorder .for the first one ….

  11. You are being replaced, and your taxpayer money is paying for your replacement.

    “A large encampment that was set up near Denver’s Elitch Gardens has officially been cleared out.

    On Wednesday evening, the city moved the dozens of new immigrants from Central and South America who had been living there, into a shelter.

    “Essentially, we had everyone basically ready to go, everybody agreed to go to the congregate site,” said Jon Ewing, with Denver Human Services.

    But things did not go as planned, after an altercation broke out.

    Willi Bastidas, one of the unhoused residents, said it happened when he wasn’t allowed in the shelter.

    “We all had agreed to go peacefully,” Bastidas said in Spanish, but he claims when he arrived, the staff told him he wouldn’t be able to stay.

    Ewing said Bastidas was denied entry due to having a history of being “aggressive” with shelter staff and is no longer allowed in any of the city’s newcomer shelters, “And because of that some of the other folks said, ‘we’re gonna go with him.'”

    The majority of them decided to leave with Bastidas and set up a new encampment in Southwest Denver.

    On Thursday, Denver7 was there as the situation escalated once again.

    At least four Denver Police patrol vehicles and other city officials arrived at the new encampment, to let them know they weren’t allowed to stay and ask them to go back to shelter.

    Amy Beck, a homeless advocate, also arrived on the scene and said she didn’t agree with the approach.

    “The city could actually deescalate the situation right now,” said Beck, “Rather than enforcement, we need to actually just have a conversation with them.”

    https://www.denver7.com/news/local-news/immigrants-return-to-street-day-after-encampment-clean-up-at-elitch-gardens

    1. Ewing said Bastidas was denied entry due to having a history of being “aggressive” with shelter staff and is no longer allowed in any of the city’s newcomer shelters

      Translation: he threatened them with violence

    2. “Amy Beck … said … ‘we need to actually just have a conversation with them.’”

      Well then Miss Beck, here’s $500. Why don’t you invite them over to your house for a spot o’ tea and a conversation?

      1. Colorado cities that have not put out the welcome mat for illegals don’t seem to be having problems with them.

    3. You people from Denver, you don’t get it.
      You seem to be missing the bright side, and yes there always is a bright side. (although not necessarily for you)

      the bright side per Bloomberg:

      Venezuela’s Violent Deaths Fall to 22-Year Low on Migration

    1. A secret RCMP report is warning the federal government that Canada may descend into civil unrest once citizens realize the hopelessness of their economic situation.

      That’s unpossible! We all know that Canaduh’s economy is robust and stronger than ever, just like the US economy. Li’l Fidel says it is.

      1. “…may descend into civil unrest once citizens realize…”

        Buying a house is the least of their problems.

        Just wait until they find out that groceries become unaffordable.

        Here in California, the minimum wage goes to $20/hr this Monday.

        Wondering when a BigMac meal is going to cost $15? No worries, folks holding those free [gov’t] pre-paid debit cards needn’t be concerned.

        1. Just wait until they find out that groceries become unaffordable.

          They actually have a carbon tax in Canaduh, As if the cost of living wasn’t already too high.

          1. “…carbon tax in Canaduh…”

            The scams are just endless.

            Wondering if anyone knows to who / where all those carbon tax C$ dollars actually go?

            A quasi carbon tax is in place here in California, in the form of a gas tax.

            As of July 2023, the gas tax in California amounted to 77.9 U.S. cents per gallon.

    2. Business
      Will people continue to move away from San Diego County?
      People walking and running at Crown Point Beach.
      Nearly 31,000 more people left San Diego County than moved here between July of 2022 and July of 2023. Pictured: With the San Diego skyline in the background, a woman jogs past other women walking along a sidewalk at Crown Point Beach in mid-January.
      (Hayne Palmour IV/For The San Diego Union-Tribune)
      By Phillip Molnar
      March 29, 2024 4:50 AM PT

      Nearly 31,000 more people left San Diego County than moved here between July of 2022 and July of 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau recently reported.

      With the exception of the first year of the pandemic, when the net outflow exceeded 33,000, that volume of people exiting the county hasn’t been seen in nearly three decades.
      …
      https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2024-03-29/will-people-continue-to-move-away-from-san-diego-county

    3. 4 things to watch in 2024 on San Diego’s housing, homelessness beat
      Avatar photo by Cody Dulaney
      January 2, 2024

      A ban on camping in public, a rush to expand shelters, a shortfall in housing construction and a program that disproportionately hurts poor and unhoused San Diegans.

      It’s been quite a year on the housing and homelessness beat in San Diego.

      Last year’s census of San Diegans experiencing unsheltered homelessness revealed a 32% increase — from 2,494 in 2022 to 3,285, the highest count in at least the past decade. Experts and advocates say the increase is driven by a housing shortage and skyrocketing rents across the region.

      As we head into the New Year, here are four issues that will continue to shape San Diego’s response and impact to housing and homelessness in 2024.
      …
      https://inewsource.org/2024/01/02/san-diego-housing-homelessness-camping-ban-shelter-towing/

    4. NBC 7 San Diego
      Here’s how much $ you need to make to afford a home in San Diego, per Zillow
      Only about 11% of households in San Diego County, where the median household income is $96,964, make enough money to comfortably afford a home, according to USD research
      By Christina Bravo
      • Published March 14, 2024
      • Updated on March 15, 2024 at 10:42 am
      NBC Universal, Inc.

      The new numbers from Zillow confirm it is expensive to be a homeowner in San Diego.

      San Diego families need an income of nearly $275,000 a year to afford a mortgage on a home, which is nearly double what it was before the pandemic, according to a new report from the real estate website Zillow.

      The study — which considers “affordable” to be spending no more than 30% of income on housing after paying a 10% down payment — shows how housing costs are far outpacing wage increases, making the American dream of becoming a homeowner a more and more distant hope.

      With that estimate, far less than 18% of households in San Diego County, where the median household income is $96,964, might make enough money to comfortably afford a home, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data from 2022. The University of San Diego’s Nonprofit Institute, which has conducted similar research, said that number is closer to 11%.
      …
      https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/how-much-income-afford-house-san-diego-county/3459547/

      1. “…spending no more than 30% of income on housing after paying a 10% down payment…”

        Where, pray tell, does a San Diego household with a typical pretax income under $100,000 find $100,000 lying around to fund a 10% downpayment on a $1 million home?

        1. The real answer is that most people who own a home in San Diego, couldn’t afford to buy one there today.

      2. San Diego families need an income of nearly $275,000 a year to afford a mortgage on a home

        Cue the Critical Drinker’s maniacal laugh. I wonder if the exodus out of California is worse than reported.

          1. I find his reviews to be less useful lately, because it’s already obvious that 99% of movies are not worth watching. Like that one called the League of Magical Vibrants or something like that. Of course we understand that the cinema is no longer meant to be entertainment but rather it is propaganda.

  14. [LOL! The “Plunk Factor’. People truly are stupid.]

    How a credit card’s ‘plunk factor’ became a millennial status symbol: ‘It feeds the ego’

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-card-plunk-factor-became-103000579.html

    [A snip …]

    That clanging, or “plunk factor,” has become almost as important as cash back or other rewards to a particular type of consumer, and it’s turned metal credit cards into a status symbol—particularly among aspirationally wealthy millennials who like to travel and eat out and don’t mind paying a few hundred bucks a year for access to airport lounges.

    [Another snip …]

    “People went ballistic,” says Kelly. “When you drop it down on the table, the clink became synonymous with the elusive, super high-end.” The demand was so strong in the weeks after it was introduced that Chase actually ran out of metal to produce the cards.

    [One more snip …]

    “It makes you seem wealthy,” says Kelly. “It’s definitely bragging rights—it feeds the ego that you made it. And that’s so much of credit card marketing. It’s a sign of social status.”

    1. “…It’s a sign of social status….”

      If a status seeker pays for a Las Vegas hooker with these cards, does he/she get an extra bonus?

        1. Heh, remember The Crying Game movie? Everybody was abuzz with it, “OMG SPOILER it was a thin effeminate dude who wore a dress and a wig and nobody knew !!!11!” Now, it’s just a Tuesday. 🙄

          In related news, there’s an uptick in “M-pox” cases. At first I thought they were referring to Measles. Nope, it’s just a kinder and gentler rebrand of Monkeypox.

          1. Remember the “stigma” of monkeypox? Oh, no, not the stigma!

            And how Real Journalists stopped reporting it altogether after reports of children, and a dog, getting infected.

            “They’re not sending their best”

  15. Housing Prices Plummet by 80%, Cries of Despair Everywhere, Ghost Towns Prevalent Across China
    China Observer
    16 hours ago

    An independent-media commentator with 300,000 followers named Chen Xiaosu, recently revealed a dramatic fall in property values at Yongqing Guorui Ecological City in Langfang city, Hebei Province. Properties there, once believed to have the potential for appreciation, have seen their prices crash from 23,000 yuan per square meter to just 4,000 yuan. She followed the trend in property speculation and learned her lesson the hard way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0hHwlQhFII

    16 minutes.

  16. Headed For A Buyer’s Market (Not Clickbait)
    Karrasch Real Properties
    19 hours ago

    Today’s video is a bit of a long winded ramble about the current Surrey and Fraser Valley real estate market. Listings are flooding to the market and Buyers are retreating. Sellers want too much money and First time buyers trying to enter the market have all but disappeared.

    So… does this mean we are headed for a Buyer’s market?

    It’s starting to look that way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1atGptHZcc

    14 minutes.

  17. A reader sent these in:

    Austin skyline (2014 vs 2024)

    https://twitter.com/MarkTomasovic/status/1769368940809978188

    ‼️ China’s dictator xi jinping just ordered his central bank to buy his treasury’s bonds as the Chinese banking and real estate crisis spirals out of control. Remember, xi made an ‘unprecedented’ stop by the PBOC in Oct of last year signaling his

    https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1773233750207242352

    Wells Fargo is reportedly laying off 1,000+ employees next week while Cisco is reportedly gearing up for its next round of job cuts in mid-April

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1773328561174188414

    LA’s Gas Company Tower, valued at $632M in 2020, is now worth just $200M as it faces foreclosure, carrying $465M in loans

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1773167291359752395

    ❖ First-Time Buyers Must Make $76,000 to Afford the Typical U.S. Starter Home–Up 8% From a Year Ago: Redfin

    Buyers must earn nearly twice as much as before the pandemic to afford the typical starter home, due to the one-two punch of high prices and mortgage rates. One sliver of hope: Affordability of starter homes is slowly improving after hitting a low point at the end of 2023.

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1773311962840990042

    ❖ The wealth of the 1% just hit a record $44 trillion
    The total net worth of the top 1%, defined by the Fed as those with wealth over $11 million, increased by $2 trillion in the fourth quarter. All of the gains came from their stock holdings. The value of corporate equities and mutual fund shares held by the top 1% surged to $19.7 trillion from $17.65 trillion the previous quarter.

    https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1773398158292263291

    Bullish obviously 🔥🔥🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1773304037045334414

    While people focus on AI, the Mag 7, etc., I think they might be missing the absolute insane valuations that many no or low-growth industrials are now sporting. Eaton, as basic an industrial conglomerate there is, now trades at almost 30x LTM EBITDA and 6x revenue.

    https://twitter.com/WallStCynic/status/1773090030774292593

    (2) $ETN has seen virtually no revenue growth in ten years, BTW. $GE is now almost up to 40x 2024E aerospace EPS, despite only 5% CAGR in aerospace revenues since 1999.

    https://twitter.com/WallStCynic/status/1773092643955671053

    While everyone is high-fiveing that Sam Bankman-Fried got 25 years, spare a thought for the politicians and venture capitalists who got their scapegoat to allow them to continue to operate in the dark.

    https://twitter.com/EponymouslyAnon/status/1773387860164391377

    Philadelphia Fed Says Current US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000
    Oh so what we’ve been saying for 6 months?

    https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1773466460725076449

    GP: I’d like to spend as little as possible on design, ok? I mean…not one f@cking penny, got it?

    Architect: say no more, chief. I got you.

    https://twitter.com/mu2myoc/status/1773468512482111562

    New Fed working paper estimates that pandemic fiscal support (the EIP and, interestingly, PPP) boosted demand for cars by about 1.75 million units in 2020.

    “..Fiscal programs explain about 70% of the drop in inventory relative to the pre-pandemic period”

    https://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1772283496599363608

    Feels like a good time to talk about how 🇨🇦 is nothing like the 🇺🇸 during 2008, right?

    🇺🇸 home prices fell so much due to poor people borrowing too much and not repaying, right?

    Nope. Total lie concocted by the investment industry, which set up a sweet heist.

    🧵👇

    https://twitter.com/StephenPunwasi/status/1536909888231817216

    1. Eaton, as basic an industrial conglomerate there is

      When I was in 3rd grade a classmate said his dad worked for Eaton. I thought he meant eaten.

    2. “GP: I’d like to spend as little as possible on design, ok?”

      Pic shows design of a boxy apartment complex, the kind we’ve been seeing for the past decade.

      (p.s. I bet all the units are “1 bedroom with den.”

    3. And we wonder why Brookfield split into two companies – protect the good assets?.

      I think that they were recently trying to sell this building at over $300M. But no suckers took …

      LA’s Gas Company Tower, valued at $632M in 2020, is now worth just $200M as it faces foreclosure, carrying $465M in loans

  18. Who would Jesus bomb?

    Antiwar — Israel Kills at Least 42, Wounds Dozens in Attack on Syria’s Aleppo (3/29/2024):

    “So far, at least 42 people were reported killed in the Israeli attacks, 36 of them Syrian soldiers and 6 members of Hezbollah. The toll is likely to rise, however, as civilians were also reported slain and do not appear in the final count. Dozens of people were also reported wounded.

    Israel declined comment on the killings in Syria, saying they do not comment on reports of their strikes from the media. They did however claim to have killed the deputy head of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile unit in a separate attack on southern Lebanon.

    Syria’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that a number of civilians were killed in the attacks and property was damaged. They did not offer numbers but at least two civilians were reported to have been slain on Thursday, before the big attacks really started.

    Analysts are speculating that Israel wanted to reaffirm their willingness to further escalate tensions in the north despite growing international calls for peace and mounting isolation. Trying to keep Hezbollah from getting any further weapons in the lead-up to a potential war was likely also a big motivator.”

    https://news.antiwar.com/2024/03/29/israel-kills-at-least-42-wounds-dozens-in-attack-on-syrias-aleppo/

    American taxpayers, you are paying for all of this, and it will never end.

    Harry S. Truman sold our country out in exchange for bags of shekel coins to buy his 1948 re-election.

    1. it will never end

      I have my doubts that the USA will still exist in its current state as a political entity after 2030.

      1. I recall that He chased the money changers out of the temple courtyard. And He issued a lot of warnings. I recall one against harming children, warning that if you do it would be better for you had you never been born.

  21. Yahoo Finance
    Benzinga
    Warren Buffett’s Favorite Stock Market Indicator Is Flashing Red — Dangerously Close To Reaching The Number He Says Is ‘Playing With Fire’
    Jeannine Mancini
    Thu, Mar 28, 2024, 10:30 AM PDT
    4 min read
    In this article:

    In the realm of stock market indicators, the Buffett Indicator stands out, especially when it flashes red.

    Named after Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and a figure synonymous with investing acumen, the indicator compares the total market capitalization of all actively traded U.S. stocks to the latest estimate of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). Buffett, in a 2001 Fortune magazine article shared by CNN Money, described it as “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

    “If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart,” Buffett said. He noted that when the ratio is in the 70% to 80% range, stock purchases tend to be highly beneficial for investors. Conversely, a ratio near or exceeding 200%, similar to what was observed in the late 1990s and early 2000s, suggests a highly risky market environment.

    Currently, this indicator has ascended to a two-year peak, hovering around 190%, which could herald a market downturn. Historical data supports this concern, as a previous surge to 211% in 2022 was followed by a 19% decline in the S&P 500 over the subsequent year.

    In 2001, this indicator was not just flashing, it was in the red zone, highlighting an overvaluation that contributed to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. This led to a stock market crash, particularly affecting technology companies that had reached unsustainable valuations. The fallout was a reduction in investor confidence, leading to a decrease in investment and consumer spending, which further impacted the economy.
    …
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-favorite-stock-market-173013346.html

    1. Ignore the pessimism. MSM-favored experts offer their staunch assurances that housing can only go up from here on out.

  24. Are you letting your FUD stop you from getting some bitcoin before it goes to $1 million within the next 12 to 18 months?

    Enjoy staying poor!

    1. Bitcoin price can hit $1 million within ’12 to 18 months,’ per fund CEO
      During a recent discussion among bitcoin market analysts and educators, the potential price impact of the April halving was the focus.
      Rob Nelson
      16 hours ago

      In a recent discussion between Roundtable anchor Rob Nelson and a group of industry experts, including Adam Swick, the chief growth officer at Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA); Brian Dixon from Off The Chain Capital; Austin Arnold of “Altcoin Daily”; and Natalie Brunell of “Coin Stories,” the future of bitcoin was the center of a debate.

      The conversation, featuring personal insights and forecasts, delved into the anticipated impacts of the upcoming bitcoin halving, price predictions for the future and the potential milestone of bitcoin reaching $1 million.
      …
      https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/bitcoin-price-can-hit-1-million-in-12-to-18-months-fund-ceo-says

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